FXCA62 TJSJ 010126 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 926 PM AST FRI MAY 31 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N 70W WILL SUPPORT A TROF INTO THE CARIB THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROF WILL THEN FILL AND MERGE WITH POLAR TROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. && .DISCUSSION...BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A A DECREASE IN TSTM AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ENHANCE TSTM INTENSITY. THEN AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT SIDE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 46W. WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN TPW VALUES WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SO RIGHT NOW NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE WEST MID NEXT WEEK LEADING TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AS SEEN ON MODIS ATLC AOD...MODIS AND VIIRS DUST PRODUCTS OVER THE ERN ATLC OCEAN ON THE NRL MRY WEBSITE WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ACCORDING TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FIRST SIG SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WITH SIG IMPACTS IN AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TISX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .CLIMATE...MAY 2013 WILL END AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 76 87 76 87 / 10 10 10 10 STT 78 88 78 89 / 0 0 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 13/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 100131 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 931 PM AST FRI AUG 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SECONDARY WEAK TUTT AXIS MOVING FROM THE TROP ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND SAT UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND SAT. WILL LOWER POPS GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND JUST ISOLD SAT AS PW GETS PRETTY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TUTT THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA SUN AND QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD. RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO KEEP BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OVR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST BLENDED TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TEND TO SUGGEST THAT BEST WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT AND MON ESPECIALLY OVER CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST PR. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WED-THU OF WEST SIDE OF ANOTHER TUTT. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND BUT OVERALL WX CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TROP ATLC AWFUL QUIET AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONITE BUT IS A STRETCH TO INCLUDE MVFR IN ANY TAF. SCT SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. WINDS BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT THRU SAT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. && .FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 82 88 80 89 / 20 30 40 50 STT 81 89 81 90 / 30 30 40 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 100900 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 500 AM AST SAT AUG 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ELONGATES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH JUST AREAS OF LOCALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT. ALTHOUGH...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT BULK OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK...WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TUTT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BETTER MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT PASSING SHRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...VCSH WRITTEN ON TAF. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT TODAY WHILE TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10/17Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TEMPO NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY...VCTS WRITTEN INSTEAD. SFC WIND TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. && .MARINE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 89 78 / 20 0 0 30 STT 89 81 90 81 / 20 0 0 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 25/23  FXCA62 TJSJ 060820 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS THRU TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG TODAY YET TO COMPLETELY INHIBIT AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS FOR NW PR WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A T-STORM THERE. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY MON-WED LEADING TO RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS BECOMING ALMOST NIL. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRI BUT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS RIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG MOISTURE RECOVERY UNTIL NEXT SUN APR 13. SO A VERY DRY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS BLO FL100 WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ISOLD-SCT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH FEW EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS DURG PRD FM 06/8Z-06/12Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR MAINLY OVR ERN PR FM 06/08Z-06/12Z. BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS AT LOCAL TAF SITES MAINLY TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 17Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONSOF PUERTO RICO...THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TJMZ THROUGH 22Z. && .MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THRU TUE THEN DIMINISHING. NNE SWELLS WILL PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY THROUGH TUE IN AREAS THAT HAD SOME RAIN LAST WEEK. BOTH CAMP SANTIAGO AND CABO ROJO MISSED MOST OF THE RAIN WITH ONLY 0.20 AND 0.10 INCHES FALLING THERE RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST KBDI AT CABO ROJO REMAINS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHILE AT CAMP SANTIAGO IS AN ALL TIME HIGH USING A CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 2004. VIEQUES RAWS LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND HAS HAD 1.40 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES MISSED ALMOST ALL THE RAIN. COTTON VALLEY RAWS IN ST. CROIX HAS HAD 1.28 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL WHILE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT HAS HAD 1.77 INCHES. HOWEVER...LONG TERM (30-DAY) DEFICITS INDICATE BOTH THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX ARE HAVING SIG RAINFALL DEFICITS. IN ADDITION...RECENT VIIRS TRUE COLOR AND MODIS NDVI IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO ISLANDS REMAIN BROWN WITH HIGH FUEL LOADING SUGGESTING FUELS ARE READY FOR FIRE WITH HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING. BASED ON LATEST GFS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE WITH FIRE WX CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT WED AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 85 76 87 75 / 10 10 10 0 STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 0 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIEQUES-SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND. VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ 10/64