FXUS65 KPSR 160930 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 230 AM MST Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will remain warm and dry with mainly clear skies through the next seven days. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, with the warmest readings coming Thursday and Friday but still typical for mid June. Typical afternoon breezes can be expected. && .DISCUSSION... As the first full day of the monsoon closed out, the weather pattern was about what we would typically expect for mid June - hot and dry. Early morning GOES-17 water vapor channels depict an upper level ridge axis pushing into eastern Arizona with a modest southwesterly flow behind. The low level water vapor also caught the late (Saturday) evening "sea breeze" emanating northward from the northern edges of the Gulf of California. This feature, fairly typical during the summer, brought an enhanced southwesterly flow to lower elevations and a brief up-tick in surface dew points. Area 16.00Z RAOBs showed very dry air in place, with KTUS observing a PWAT of 0.4". RAOBs further north though did pick up enough moisture in the deep boundary layer to yield some saturation at mid levels. Today through Tuesday, weak upper level troughing will remain in place with the low/trough axis centered over southern California. This will induce a slight increase in typical afternoon upslope winds across the region and keep temperatures at or just slightly below normal. A slight uptick in heights midweek will result in a modest bump in afternoon temperatures. Heights will dip again late in the week as a rather deep upper level low moves across the northern tier states, suppressing heights even this far south. Overall, HeatRisk will remain in the low to moderate range through the 7-day forecast period. With this flow pattern, no notable intrusions of moisture are noted or expected. However, we will see typical diurnal increases and decreases of surface moisture in the Imperial Valley. The waters in the Gulf of California are around 76-80F, and nearby shoreline surface obs show dew points in the 70s. Not out of the question that we see those high dew points move northward at some point into the Yuma and El Centro areas. Regarding the Woodbury Fire, adjusted current forecast to try and account a bit better anticipated smoke trends. GOES-17 Blue Visible (Ch1) showed fairly decent coverage broadening out from the fire Saturday evening, thus spread the smoke out a bit more this morning. With a near full moon, the VIIRS night time visible will be interesting to look at when it comes in. Some slight adjustments may be made once that happens in the next hour or two. Based on current GOES-17 shortwave IR (ch7), fire activity appears to be rather minimal this morning, thus will keep smoke close to the fire during the late morning/early afternoon. Once the typical increase in fire activity happens in the afternoon, will spread more smoke outward and downwind (to the northeast). Repeating this pattern into Monday as well, but this is all highly dependent on suppression activity and fire behavior. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0540 UTC. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds at the Phoenix terminals look to follow typical diurnal patterns through the TAF period, becoming light and variable at times. SKC conditions will prevail through much of the period with a few mid-level clouds around 12 kft possible over south-central Arizona overnight into Sunday morning. Smoke from the Woodbury fire could cause some slantwise visibility issues tonight at KPHX, but confidence of this occurring is low. Winds in SE California will favor a S/SE direction with a period of westerly winds at KIPL this evening. Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday: Typical mid June weather can be expected as the overall pattern remains steady the next week. Afternoon temperatures will show a slight upward trend, peaking just a handful of degrees above normal Thursday and Friday. Afternoon humidity values will remain very low. Overnight recovery will generally be poor, though will be notably better in the Imperial Valley and higher elevations of far eastern Gila County. Typical afternoon breezes can be expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Iniguez AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez