FXUS63 KOAX 170911

AFDOAX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE

311 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013



.DISCUSSION...



...CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES...



FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD PATTERN

OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS ON MONDAY REACHED THE LOW 50S OVER

WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 40S ELSEWHERE...AND THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY

WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE SLIPPED INTO

THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. 0830Z NPP VIIRS DAY-NIGHT BAND DOES A

NICE JOB OF SHOWING THE REDUCED SNOW COVER FROM THE MELTING

YESTERDAY. 08Z TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF

30...THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR SIMILAR HIGHS

AS YESTERDAY BUT PERHAPS FALL SHORT 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE MONDAY

HIGHS.



TONIGHT A FAIRLY STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA

EAST THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING 850 TEMPERATURES OF POSITIVE

DOUBLE DIGITS WHICH IS QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AS WELL AS GOOD MIXING WITH

40+ 850 KNOT WINDS. RESULTING HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUITE

MILD WITH FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA APPROACHING 60.  



THE WARM AIRMASS OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN ARCTIC

AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CANADA.

THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND

SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN REACH THE KANSAS BORDER AROUND

SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL

FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE

AFTERNOON OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL

ONLY REACH THE TEENS MOST AREAS...LOW 20S SOUTH.  



THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL GENERALLY BE SHALLOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS

FROM THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SUPERCOOLED FREEZING

DRIZZLE SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP MAINLY THURSDAY. IN THE NORTHERN

COUNTIES...THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME GREAT

ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY NIGHT

THE SURFACE-BASED COLD LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL TO A POINT WHERE

LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AGAIN WE

EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THIS MIGHT BE A CASE WHERE THE

CLOUD LAYER IS SHALLOW ENOUGH TO SEE THE MOON THROUGH IT BUT

FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FALLING FROM THE LOW AND

RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO-CU DECK.  



DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SLOWLY

MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE

ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE ARCTIC AIRMASS EAST.  



NIETFELD



&&



.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.



EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS FROM

5000 TO 10000 FEET SHOULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. A FEW

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AT KOMA OR KOFK BUT CHANCES SEEMED SMALL ENOUGH

TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TOWARD SUNRISE AND

BRIEF MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR THERE. OTHERWISE JUST LOOK FOR SCATTERED

CLOUDS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 12 KNOTS.



MILLER



&&



.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.

IA...NONE.



&&



$$