FXUS63 KMQT 120952 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 452 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 ...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG US-41 FROM MARQUETTE TO HARVEY AND FOR M-28 FROM HARVEY TO MUNISING... VERY POOR VISIBILITIES COVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS COLD 850MB TEMPS (RAP ANALYZED VALUES AROUND -24C) ARE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS COLD AIR LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW YESTERDAY AND IT REALLY TOOK OFF THIS PAST EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE AREA STILL BETWEEN A DEPARTING LOW OVER NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A 1042MB HIGH OVER MANITOBA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WERE 45-52MPH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE WINDS TURNED TO THE NORTH THIS PAST EVENING WITH BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH...THE LAKE EFFECT TRANSITIONED FROM THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS TO THE NORTH WIND AREAS. THE ICE ON PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LIMITED SOME OF THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT AS SEEN ON KMQT/CWGJ RADARS AND LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF GRAND MARAIS...ALTHOUGH 06Z VIIRS DAY/NIGHT IMAGE DID STILL SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT WITH THE MOVEMENTS OF THE BANDS YESTERDAY EVENING AND INTO THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE BANDS HAVE NOW HAVE LOCKED INTO THE NORTHERLY WIND BANDS AND HAVE SEEN RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR WHICH MATCHES UP WITH WHAT WAS SEEN AT OUR OFFICE BETWEEN 12-1AM (0.6IN). THE MAIN STORY THOUGH IS THE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINED SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WITH THE ICE ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN LOCATED THERE AND HAS PROMPTED M-28 TO BE CLOSED THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN KAWBAWGAM ROAD IN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND MUNISING. IN ADDITION...WITH POOR VISIBILITIES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM MARQUETTE TO HARVEY ON US-41...THE MARQUETTE CITY POLICE IS URGING MOTORISTS TO AVOID TRAVEL ALONG THAT AREA. ONE ITEM TO NOTE THIS PAST EVENING WAS WHAT APPEARED TO BE MORE OPEN WATER OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE. WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS...THE BREAK DOWN OF THE ICE WAS EXPECTED AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THAT EFFECT ON CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND ROUND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE AREA SHOULD SEE A STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE TIED TO THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS (FALLING FROM 8KFT ON THE KMQT VAD AT 04Z) TO 3-4KFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OVER THE EAST THE GREATER LAKE MODIFIED AIR WILL KEEP THE INVERSION HEIGHTS HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE FALLING IN THE EVENING. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAVE SEEN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE WESTERN SITES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35KTS THROUGH 14-15Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THEY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COMBINED WEAKENING WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY SHOULD HELP LEAD TO IMPROVING VISIBILITIES FROM MID MORNING ON. AS WINDS BACK LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE THE LAKE EFFECT STARTING TO SHIFT BACK EAST AND LARGELY FOCUSED OVER ALGER COUNTY AND ALSO AFFECTING LUCE COUNTY AGAIN. THEN AS THEY CONTINUE TO BACK AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOULD SEE THE LAKE EFFECT COME TO AN END OVER THE EAST THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE OVER THE WEST...HAVE ALREADY SEEN WINDS WEAKENING AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AT BOTH KIWD/KCMX. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE FAR WEST SEEING THE SNOW END IN THE MORNING AND THE KEWEENAW AROUND EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THINK THE HEADLINES ARE IN DECENT SHAPE. DID MAKE A MINOR TWEAK TO THE END TIME OF THE IRON/DICKINSON WIND CHILL HEADLINE END TIME DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN EXPECTED. EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE AREA. THE DIMINISHMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL SPREAD EAST IN THE EVENING WITH THE BACKING WINDS. BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND MAKE FOR A TRICKY LOW FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS PRETTY INSISTENT ON THESE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND BEING THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...DID NOT TRY TO GET TO FANCY WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND FOLLOWED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...EXPECT IT TO STAY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THAT TIME. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z FRI WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. THE NAM THEN BRINGS DOWN SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND CLOSES OFF A 500 MB LOW EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z SAT WHICH HELPS TO DIG THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THIS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST BY 12Z SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRI BEFORE BOTH DEPART FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND USED A COMBO OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND. DID PUSH TIMING BACK FOR POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON FRI MORNING AS WINDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SET UP A LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND OVER THE EAST. WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO -15F TO -30F LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN GET COLDER FOR SAT NIGHT WITH VALUES FROM -25F TO -35F. ALSO LOOKS LIKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES LOW AGAIN EXCEPT THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS WINDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY MORE HEADLINES FOR NOW AND LET THIS FIRST EVENT GET DOWN BEFORE GOING WITH THE SECOND STRONGER EVENT. MESSAGE COULD GET LOST WITH MULTIPLE HEADLINES THAT THE SECOND EVENT WILL BE WORSE THAN THIS FIRST ONE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SUN WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN. THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND -21C. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR COMES IN ON TUE WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -22C TO -27C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS A SFC COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEING THE PCPN TYPE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 A STRONG DISTURBANCE WITH CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH STRONG NNW WINDS THAT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLSN...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE MOST SEVERE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED AT SAW. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DIMINISHING WINDS AND BLSN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 322 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 ONGOING GALES/HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES/HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR INVASION WILL DEVELOP FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST THRU SAT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ON SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF AND COULD DEFINITELY SEE A STORM EVENT ON LAKE SUPERIOR THEN. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE...STORM OR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES FOR NOW FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THIS FIRST EVENT WINDS DOWN AND HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO HOIST THE NEXT STRONGER EVENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001>004-009-084. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ013- 085. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ010-011. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265>267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JLB MARINE...07  FXUS63 KMQT 130825 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 325 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ALLOWING THE REGION TO TREND BACK TOWARDS MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS (RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF -22C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR) AND IS PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. THOSE WINDS ARE DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. THAT RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TODAY AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THUS...EXPECT BL WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BACK TO A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT A LAKE INDUCED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH OF THAT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT AREA TO BE THE FOCUS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW TODAY. BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT DETAILS...A QUICK NOTE ON THE TEMPERATURES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT WHILE A POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM KIWD TO KLNL. THIS CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND WITH WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5MPH...ARE SEEING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND - 20F IN THOSE AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES AND WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO STAY SIMILAR TO CURRENT VALUES BUT COULD SEE THEM BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE LOW -20S. NOW FOR THE EASTERN CWA LAKE EFFECT...HAVE SEEN THE BACKING WINDS (WEST-SOUTHWEST AT GRANITE ISLAND AND MUNISING) INFLUENCING THE BANDS OVER THE EAST. WHILE THEY HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT GRAND MARAIS (FOCUSED ON THE 12 MILE BEACH AREA OF PICTURED ROCKS)...RADAR TRENDS TO THE NORTH OF MARQUETTE ARE NOW STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTWARD LIFT TO THE DOMINATE BAND AND EXPECT THAT TO HELP TRANSITION THE BAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT THE MAIN BANDS OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING. WITH THAT PERSISTENT MOVEMENT...EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW THE LES ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z. OVER THE WEST...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETUP OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY. OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED OUT WEST...BUT PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS DO INDICATE THE CONVERGENCE BAND IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND IN LINE WITH THE RADAR NORTH OF MARQUETTE COUNTY. THIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS (ALTHOUGH IT WAS PICKED UP ON OUR LOCAL 6Z WRF RUN). WAS HOPING TO GET A VISUAL CONFORMATION FROM THE VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND BEFORE FINALIZING THE FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING FOR THAT. BASED OFF THOSE WEATHER STATIONS AND WEBCAMS...HAVE TRENDED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE HOUGHTON TO CALUMET AREA FOR THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1/2-1 INCH AN HOUR WITHIN THE BAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STRUGGLING SOME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE BAND THIS MORNING...BUT DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS/INDICATIONS THAT THE BAND WILL TRY TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AND INTO SOUTHERN KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE PRESENT TIME...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO BE ABOVE THE DGZ AND HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD SEE MORE OF THE CLOUD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE DGZ AND HELP RATIOS. STILL EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO FALL IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AND THE NORTHERN HOUGHTON ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR A POTENTIAL EXPANSION INTO KEWEENAW COUNTY. ONE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL BE TIED TO THE LEFT FRONT OF AN UPPER JET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THOSE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CO-LOCATED WITH WEAK/SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND 700MB MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE U.P. BORDER WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALREADY SOME -SHSN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WEST OF WINNIPEG...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES POPS NEAR THE BORDER (CHANCE NEAR IRONWOOD) TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST COLD DAY UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO MID TEENS. TONIGHT...MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGH. SOME TRY TO DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE FIELD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW...BUT WILL SAG CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. IN CASE THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH. AS THAT OCCURS...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE WARMING AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A MUDDLED WIND FIELD...THERE SHOULDN/T BE ANY ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT AND IN TURN EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAT BRUSHES THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXITING THE AREA...THINK AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD TREND TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OVER THE SOUTH BECOME COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO BE THE COLDEST OVER THE AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT AND DID TREND THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INTERIOR AREAS OF DELTA/ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES..AS LONGER CLEARING COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 429 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW AND AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ALOFT WITH A 300MB JET AROUND 120KTS. THE FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NW FAVORED WIND SNOW BELTS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...MORE OF AN OFFSHORE OR PARALLEL SHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE E. ANOTHER 1-2IN OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS THROUGH THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW...AND THEN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT. THE 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER W HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SINK OVER N MANITOBA. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A MORE W FLOW TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE 500MB LOW ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWN TROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. SYNOPTIC SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WILL RETURN THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE COMBINING N LOWS SINKING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. YESTERDAY THEY SHOWED MORE OF A S TREND...LIKE THE 12Z SREF /OVER E KS/OK AT 06Z FRIDAY/. SINCE THEN THEY ARE A BIT MORE N INTO IA. EITHER WAY...A PERSISTANT NE-N SFC FLOW LOOKS TO SET IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO JOIN FORCES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS UP THE E SEABOARD SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A STEADY TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WITH N-NW FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW KSAW TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD UNDER A DOWNSLOPE WSW WIND COMPONENT. AT KIWD...BANDS SHOULD SHIFT N OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AT KCMX...-SHSN WILL CONTINUE WITH A WIND TRAJECTORY OFF THE LAKE. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY PREVAIL...BUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SOME MVFR AND LIFR AT TIMES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS HELPED BACK WINDS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW 25KTS. EXPECT THESE WESTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTENSIFIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS UP TO 30KTS INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS...UP TO 30KTS...WILL BRING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF FREEZING SPRAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006- 007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ003. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...SRF