FXUS64 KLIX 261329 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 829 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 ...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... KLIX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 J/KG NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN INVERSION THAT REACHED UP TO 3000 FEET. NUCAPS SOUNDINGS FROM THE NPP VIIRS PASS AROUND 730Z SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALSO INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONGER CORES MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH KLIX FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 131 KNOTS WAS AT 39000 FEET. 12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT BURSTING OVER AGRICOLA 86 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE AFTER ASCENDING FOR 103 MINUTES. ANSORGE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ SYNOPSIS...L/W TROUGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DRAPED NE TO SW FROM CNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO NV. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GRT LAKES WITH OUR STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AND INTO THE NRN GULF. OUR COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. /CAB/ SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN QUIET...COOL...AND MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 7Z WITH TEMPS LIKELY DROPPING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE. WET FCST IN STORE FOR EASTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR BUT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COASTS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVNG AND OVERNIGHT HRS THE STALLED BNDRY SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUN MORNING. WAA SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL LIKELY PENETRATE WELL INLAND LATE THIS EVNG WITH NUM TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AFTER 5Z AND THROUGH 20Z TOMORROW. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME AS PWS WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX VALUES OF NEAR 38K. WIDESPREAD 1- 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MS VALLEY SUN EVNG AND THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT BUT COULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICK LATE SUN AFTN AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER. /CAB/ LONG TERM...AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH LIKE THIS PAST WEEK BEGINNING...RATHER QUIET. COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT SHOULD DRY THE AREA OUT WITH MOISTURE DISPLACED SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STALL ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PUTTING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE OLD BNDRY OVER THE GULF DRIFTS BACK NORTH...MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA WED AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SAT. /CAB/ AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 12Z CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A FRONT BACKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN STARTING NEAR THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. 98/SO MARINE...CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS A OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OVERALL ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT THAT TIME. 98/SO DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES... MODERATE RIVER FLOODING. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 78 63 75 53 / 10 50 90 20 BTR 78 65 78 56 / 10 60 80 20 ASD 76 66 74 60 / 20 60 90 20 MSY 75 66 76 62 / 20 70 80 20 GPT 74 66 72 62 / 20 60 90 20 PQL 75 66 73 62 / 30 60 80 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$