FXUS64 KCRP 200443 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1043 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013 .DISCUSSION...SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AS ANTICIPATED PER METARS/SPORT HYBRID MODIS-VIIRS-GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. NAM DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 NM. SREF PROBABILITIES LOW WITH REGARD TO VSBYS BELOW 1 NM. LOCAL WRF-ARW DOES NOT LOWER VSBYS UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. THUS WL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSY. LOWER WIND OVER LAND OWING TO RECENT METARS/EXPECTED CONDITIONS WHEN CONSIDERING 0-1KM NAM LAPSE RATES. MAINTAINED SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE WHEN CONSIDERING SPORT SST COMPOSITE VALUES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE. AVIATION...NLLJ ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS OF AVIATION CONCERNS AS ITS STRENGTH INCREASES LLWS AND FOCUSES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CIG RESTRICTIONS RATHER THAN VIS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO OCNLY BECOME IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN SLOWLY LIFT AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER S CA AND NRN BAJA CA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGD TO MOV ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH FRI. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND CONTINUE TO USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX. EXPECTING A MIX OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W CWA WHERE THE LLJ IS NOT AS STRONG. AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH...IF ANY...DENSE FOG ACROSS S TX AS SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO KEEP THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MIXED. THAT BEING SAID...SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP TONIGHT AND COULD ADVECT INLAND AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE LLJ WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX TO THE SFC ON FRI...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW MUCH WEAKER LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE MIXING. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SPEEDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS LOWER THAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW THE LLJ SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE TX COAST AND OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS BUT WITH MUCH LESS MIXING...MAKING FOR A TRICKY WIND FCST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHCS TONIGHT OR FRI AS LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN A CAPPING INVERSION. KEPT 5-10 POPS WITH THE MENTION OF -SHRA'S FRI MORNING. RAIN CHCS THEN INCREASE FRI NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. KEPT THE 30 POP ACROSS THE NE BUT LOWERED TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. FEEL RAIN CHCS WILL BE EVEN LOWER FOR THE WESTERN CWA FRI NIGHT DUE TO LARGE CIN VALUES...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP ACROSS MEX AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AREA. THUS KEPT THE 20 FOR THE WEST AS WELL. HAVE INTRODUCED -TSRA FOR THE NE CWA FOR LATE FRI NIGHT DUE TO MODERATE CAPE...LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN/CAP...DEEPER MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RRQ OF APPROACHING JET. MARINE...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM MOD TO STRONG THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA'S FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING SEA FOG TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE REGION. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DUG DEEP TO THE SOUTH...INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LINED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...AS LOW LEVEL WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS SATURDAY MORNING... TAPERING OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. DESPITE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHWEST...HAVE NOT COMPLETELY REMOVED POPS OUT WEST IN THE MORNING...WITH THE THINKING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 135KT JET STREAK. DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE THESE PARAMETERS RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. FIRST DAY OF WINTER IS SATURDAY...AND WE MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPS AT CRP/LRD/VCT. MILD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND GLANCING BLOW OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WIND DROPS OFF INLAND TUESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...LEADING TO LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND. LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURNING CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE...AND WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 MPH. WITH FUELS NOW CURED FROM RECENT FREEZE AND FROST...THIS COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 79 68 83 52 / 10 10 20 30 0 VICTORIA 64 78 67 79 48 / 10 10 30 70 10 LAREDO 62 86 67 83 50 / 0 10 20 20 0 ALICE 64 84 68 85 51 / 10 10 20 20 0 ROCKPORT 65 73 68 78 51 / 10 10 30 50 10 COTULLA 58 82 64 79 46 / 0 10 20 30 0 KINGSVILLE 66 83 69 86 53 / 10 10 20 20 0 NAVY CORPUS 66 75 70 79 54 / 10 10 20 30 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM