---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPSR 160930 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 230 AM MST Sun Jun 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will remain warm and dry with mainly clear skies through the next seven days. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals, with the warmest readings coming Thursday and Friday but still typical for mid June. Typical afternoon breezes can be expected. && .DISCUSSION... As the first full day of the monsoon closed out, the weather pattern was about what we would typically expect for mid June - hot and dry. Early morning GOES-17 water vapor channels depict an upper level ridge axis pushing into eastern Arizona with a modest southwesterly flow behind. The low level water vapor also caught the late (Saturday) evening "sea breeze" emanating northward from the northern edges of the Gulf of California. This feature, fairly typical during the summer, brought an enhanced southwesterly flow to lower elevations and a brief up-tick in surface dew points. Area 16.00Z RAOBs showed very dry air in place, with KTUS observing a PWAT of 0.4". RAOBs further north though did pick up enough moisture in the deep boundary layer to yield some saturation at mid levels. Today through Tuesday, weak upper level troughing will remain in place with the low/trough axis centered over southern California. This will induce a slight increase in typical afternoon upslope winds across the region and keep temperatures at or just slightly below normal. A slight uptick in heights midweek will result in a modest bump in afternoon temperatures. Heights will dip again late in the week as a rather deep upper level low moves across the northern tier states, suppressing heights even this far south. Overall, HeatRisk will remain in the low to moderate range through the 7-day forecast period. With this flow pattern, no notable intrusions of moisture are noted or expected. However, we will see typical diurnal increases and decreases of surface moisture in the Imperial Valley. The waters in the Gulf of California are around 76-80F, and nearby shoreline surface obs show dew points in the 70s. Not out of the question that we see those high dew points move northward at some point into the Yuma and El Centro areas. Regarding the Woodbury Fire, adjusted current forecast to try and account a bit better anticipated smoke trends. GOES-17 Blue Visible (Ch1) showed fairly decent coverage broadening out from the fire Saturday evening, thus spread the smoke out a bit more this morning. With a near full moon, the VIIRS night time visible will be interesting to look at when it comes in. Some slight adjustments may be made once that happens in the next hour or two. Based on current GOES-17 shortwave IR (ch7), fire activity appears to be rather minimal this morning, thus will keep smoke close to the fire during the late morning/early afternoon. Once the typical increase in fire activity happens in the afternoon, will spread more smoke outward and downwind (to the northeast). Repeating this pattern into Monday as well, but this is all highly dependent on suppression activity and fire behavior. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0540 UTC. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds at the Phoenix terminals look to follow typical diurnal patterns through the TAF period, becoming light and variable at times. SKC conditions will prevail through much of the period with a few mid-level clouds around 12 kft possible over south-central Arizona overnight into Sunday morning. Smoke from the Woodbury fire could cause some slantwise visibility issues tonight at KPHX, but confidence of this occurring is low. Winds in SE California will favor a S/SE direction with a period of westerly winds at KIPL this evening. Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday through Saturday: Typical mid June weather can be expected as the overall pattern remains steady the next week. Afternoon temperatures will show a slight upward trend, peaking just a handful of degrees above normal Thursday and Friday. Afternoon humidity values will remain very low. Overnight recovery will generally be poor, though will be notably better in the Imperial Valley and higher elevations of far eastern Gila County. Typical afternoon breezes can be expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Iniguez AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...Iniguez  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 281338 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 538 AM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2019 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Generally very nice weather for the forecast area, but on the fringes of the high pressure there will be some cloudiness, and some showers. Strong high pressure with deep low pressure to the west, so strong gusty winds on the coast with the strongest winds on the Capes and over the marine areas. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm and Relative Humidity values will continue to slowly fall. Models...Handling the ridging well, but struggling a bit with the low to the east that will dig west late in the week brining some cooler temperatures. 28/12Z solutions initialized well with good run to run agreement the last few days. Using NAM/SREF blend for precipitation, and the NAMDNG for winds. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging continues to build with a 557 dam high over Hughes this morning with a ridge axis extending northeast over Deadhorse, then north over the Arctic. Ridging also extends to the southwest over Unalaska to a high over the Central Pacific. Troughing has dug in over Southcentral Alaska with a 553 dam low over Cook Inlet. Ridging continues over the Northeast Pacific with a 548 dam low moving north over 160W as it weakens. The longwave trough remains to the west with a 516 dam low 500 nm northwest of Wrangel Island, a 522 dam low over the Kamchatka Peninsula, and a 521 dam low 400 nm southwest of Shemya. A shortwave is moving northeast across the Arctic this morning, and will be over the high Arctic this evening. Another shortwave is over the Central Bering Sea and will move over the Chukotsk Peninsula and Bering Strait this evening. The shortwave will continue to the northeast as it moves over the Arctic and into the Canadian Archipelago by Tuesday morning. Ridging over the state continues to build as the center moves over Coldfoot by Monday morning at 564 dam. The low over Southcentral also deepens as the low is cutoff from the trough and moves southwest over Illiamna Lake Monday morning, then moves northwest over the Lower Yukon Delta at 550 dam as it starts to merge with the lower heights to the west. The low will be over the Bering Strait by Tuesday morning at 548 dam, the moves northwest over the Chukchi Sea, then north over the Dateline. As the low moves northwest then west the ridge will continue to build to the east with a 570 dam center over Prudhoe Bay, and ridging extending south to a 571 dam high in the Northeast Pacific. At 850 hpa...Temperatures over the forecast area are generally in the -4C to -7C range this morning and will be warming as the ridging builds aloft over the area the next few days. By Monday afternoon temperatures over the Tanana Valley, and along the West Coast will rise to around 0C. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm to around 4C over most of the forecast area by Wednesday morning. Temperatures do cool along the AlCan border midweek as a trough aloft digs to the southwest. Surface...High pressure over the state with a 1035 mb high over Bettles, a 1036 mb high over Old Crow YT, and a 1034 mb high over Central, and high pressure extending south to a 1036 mb high just west of the Queen Charlotte Islands. Low pressure to the west with a 1002 mb low over the Siberian Arctic, a 988 mb low over the Western Bering Sea. A 1005 mb low is 400 nm south of Sand Point and will remain quasi stationary into Monday then merge with the low pressure over the Bering Sea. By Monday evening high pressure continues over most of the state with a 1033 mb high near Arctic Village, and a 1033 mb high over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska while low pressure remains to the west. A 1032 mb high will be over the Eastern Brooks Range, and high pressure will be building over the Eastern Gulf Coast. A low pressure system over the Pacific will move northeast into the Bering Sea merging with the dissipating lows into a 979 mb low over the Western Bering Sea. A weak leeside trough will develop north of the Alaska Range Monday evening. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog hanging around the coast will be the biggest issue to deal with short term. The 28/1132Z VIIRS Nighttime Microphysics RGB product shows quite a bit of stratus and fog over the Arctic. The fog looks pretty set in around Kaktovik, Prudhoe Bay and over the Central Arctic Coast, but is not as dense when moving inland. Expect some clearing during the day with improved visibility. A front out west will bring some showers to the Northwest Arctic Coast Monday and Tuesday, along with some strong gusty winds to 50 mph west of Point Lay. Temperatures warming. West Coast and Western Interior...Partly to mostly cloudy with precipitation remaining to the west for the most part. Some rain moving over the Chukchi Sea may move far enough east to move over Point Hope, and there is a chance of showers in the Bering Strait. Southeast to south winds will be increasing as the gradient tightens up across the area between the high in Interior Alaska and the low in the Western Bering Sea. Winds generally 20 mph to 35 mph gusting to 45 mph on the Capes, but winds in the Bering Strait will be a bit stronger with winds gusting near 60 mph. Temperatures warming. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear skies with generally light winds and temperatures rising into the 50s to lower 60s will continue into midweek. Overnight lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...A low over Canada may bring some cooler temperatures late in the week to the Eastern Interior, otherwise warm and dry for most of the forecast area. Some showers possible along the fringes of the high pressure on the West Coast and Arctic Coast. && Hydrology...Warm temperatures through the week with elevated freezing levels will allow for higher elevation snowpack to start melting. The Yukon River went out at Dawson on Friday and with the warmer temperatures this could be an active week on the Yukon river in Alaska. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Warmer and drier the next few days with Relative Humidity values falling into the teens in the Middle and Upper Tanana Valley, but winds will be generally light and variable. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning for AKZ213. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB APR 19  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 081408 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 608 AM AKDT Mon Apr 8 2019 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Quiet weather across the area. Some light snow or rain on the West Coast will be tapering off, and snow in the Noatak and Kobuk Valleys and Brooks Range will taper off today. Some upslope snow setting up for the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range Tuesday, but no significant accumulation. Low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska continues to spin moisture and clouds north over the state as it moves inland and dissipates today. Another low in the Central Aleutians will move to the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday morning. A trough of low pressure north of the Alaska Range will persist with a 997 mb low over the Tanana Flats. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph. Stronger winds around Point Hope as pressure gradient gets squeezed. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm. Models...Run to run has been good for the short term, but around 36 hours they have been changing rather significantly leading to rather big changes in the day 3 and 4 forecasts. The 08/00Z solution initialized well against the local surface analysis at 08/06Z. The NAM/SREF approach for precipitation has worked well, so will lean that direction again today. Temperatures still have quite a spread, but are closer today than they have been. To maintain continuity will make only minor adjustments to the previous temperature grids. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 510 dam low over St Lawrence Island will continue to back to the west over the Central Bering Sea. Ridging has pushed west between the ranges over the Western Interior, and Kotzebue Sound. A 520 dam low over the Gulf of Alaska will move over the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon and merge with broad area of lower heights over the Bering Sea. The 508 dam low north of Deadhorse will slowly move northeast. A 522 dam low will develop south of Sand Point this evening and move to the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday morning, and near Sitka by Wednesday morning. Ridging over the state will weaken Tuesday as a weak longwave trough moves northeast across the state. A ridge axis rotating around a high in the pacific will move over the southwest mainland Wednesday afternoon, and by Thursday morning the axis will lie from Yakutat to Tanana to Diomede, and west. At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm lies along the crest of the Brooks Range then southwest across the Chukchi Sea. Patchy areas with temperatures around 0C have moved over the Interior south of the Yukon River. The -10C isotherm will continue to push north to be over the Arctic Coast Wednesday morning, and north of the coast by Thursday morning. Surface...A broad area of low pressure remains over the state with high pressure over the Northwest Arctic. Troughing north of the Alaska Range today with a 997 mb low over the Tanana Flats. A 975 mb low in the Northeast Pacific has moved to 100 nm south of Prince William Sound at 991 mb and will move over the Kenai Peninsula and dissipate. The 986 mb low that developed in Bristol Bay yesterday has moved over the southwest mainland at 991 mb, and will move to St Lawrence Island by Tuesday morning at 999 mb with a broad trough of low pressure extending west over the Upper Tanana Valley. High pressure over the Arctic will push south over the Arctic Coast and Plains as the high moves to 400 nm northwest of Point Barrow by Tuesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front is dragging over the Brooks Range bringing snow to the area as well as the Eastern Arctic Coast. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch with snow diminishing this morning. Stratus over much of the Arctic east of Wainwright can be seen on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/1105Z. Observations indicate visibility as low as 1 mile with snow and fog. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 25 mph with the strongest winds on the Northwest Arctic Coast with gusts to 45 mph southwest of Point Lay. Highs in the single digits above, with lows in the single digits below. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly cloudy to cloudy with showers over the coast, and the Noatak and Kobuk Valleys. Snow accumulation less than 1 inch in the Noatak and Kobuk Valleys with snow tapering off later this morning. Winds northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph locally gusting to around 30 mph, except northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph around Point Hope and 40 mph near passes in the Western Brooks Range. Winds 20 to 20 mph and gusty around Gambell this morning slowly diminishing in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm. Central and Eastern Interior...Partly to mostly cloudy with generally high clouds. North of Delta Junction winds northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph, from Delta Junction south through the Alaska Range winds southeast to south 5 to 20 mph with local gusts to 30 mph. Highs in the 40s to mid 50s, and lows in the 20s to mid 30s, except 10 to 20 degrees colder north of Fairbanks. && Fire Weather...No significant changes as Minimum Relative Humidity values will be in the 20 to 40 percent range with good overnight recovery. Temperatures slowly warming with highs reaching into the 50s. Chances of rain in the Western Interior and on the West Coast with some snow in the Brooks Range. Gusty winds near the Alaska Range Passes Wednesday night and Thursday will produce near Red Flag conditions. && Hydrology...Many stations in the Middle and Upper Tanana will see temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s the remainder of the week with highs in the 30s to lower 40s as far north as Bettles, and in the Yukon Territory. No significant precipitation is expected in Interior Alaska or the Yukon Territory. With warming temperatures and freezing levels rising to 3500 to 5000 feet, means breakup will be accelerating, so extreme caution should be used crossing any of the Interior rivers as the ice continues to rot and be eroded from below, and runoff will be moving into the mainstem rivers. Caution should also be used on lakes as the ice melts at different rates. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Active weather pattern with a weak weather front moving up the West Coast midweek, followed by a stronger front moving up the Coast Thursday. Generally weak low pressure over the state with high pressure over the Arctic will produce northeast to east winds 5 to 20 mph. The Interior will see a mix of clouds with just a chance of showers. Gusty south winds near Alaska Range Passes Wednesday night and Thursday. A low develops in the Yukon Territory late in the week and will bring increased chances of showers to the Central and Eastern Interior. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ217. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB APR 19  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 071320 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 520 AM AKDT Sun Apr 7 2019 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Low pressure system in the Northeast Pacific continues to spin moisture and clouds north over the state as it moves to the Gulf of Alaska. A front developing over the Western Interior will bring rain to the Middle Yukon Valley this afternoon then moving over the West Coast. Front will continue to develop with ll rain developing in the Upper Kobuk Valley and over the Brooks Range tonight. Some clouds in the Central and Eastern Interior, but precipitation will be limited to a few sprinkles along the AlCan Border. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph. Stronger winds around Point Hope as pressure gradient gets squeezed. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm. Models...Solutions in good agreement in the very short term to around 36 hours, then diverge with fairly big changes from run to run. The 07/00Z solution initialized well against the local surface analysis at 07/12Z. Using a NAM/SREF approach for precipitation. Solutions all seem to have a good handle on the winds, so will just use a equal blend. Temperatures continue to be challenging for solutions with large variances between them, so will maintain continuity making only minor adjustments to the previous grids. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 510 dam low that backed across the state is over the Bering Strait this morning with troughing extending northeast to a 512 dam low 150 nm north of Point Barrow, and southwest to a 512 dam low over the Pribilofs. Ridging has pushed west between the ranges over the Western Interior. A 510 dam low persists over the Northeast Pacific 500 nm south of Prince William Sound. By Monday morning the ridging will push west over Kotzebue Sound, and Norton Bay with a 528 dam center over Hughes. The low over the Bering Strait will merge with the lows over the Central Bering Sea with a 506 dam center, and the low over the Arctic will deepen to 508 dam as it slowly moves east to be 200 nm north of Deadhorse with a 512 dam low moving over the Northern Beaufort Sea. The low over the Northeast Pacific will move to Prince William Sound as it weakens to 521 dam before merging with the low over the bering Sea. At 850 hpa...The -10C isotherm lies roughly Old Crow YT to Kotzebue to Cape Romanzof this morning and will lie along the crest of the Brooks Range then southwest across the Chukchi Sea. Patchy areas with temperatures around 0C will push north over the Interior south of the Yukon River. The -10C isotherm will continue to push north to be over the Arctic Coast Wednesday morning. Surface...A broad area of low pressure remains over the state with high pressure over the Northwest Arctic. Troughing will develop north of the Alaska Range today with a 991 mb low developing near Black Rapids. A 975 mb low in the Northeast Pacific has moved to 200 nm south of Prince William Sound and will move northwest over mainland Alaska and dissipate late Monday. A 986 mb low develops in Bristol Bay this afternoon and will move northwest to be near St Lawrence Island by Monday evening at 995 mb. A inverted trough will persist over the West Coast and Chukchi Sea Coast enhancing the tight gradient in the area. A 1025 mb high over the Dateline 400 nm N of Wrangel Island will remain stationary into Mon, then move SE with high pressure pushing SE over the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast as the high moves to 200 nm N of Point Barrow by Tue afternoon, and to 300 nm N of MacKenzie Bay by Wed afternoon. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus over much of the coast and plains can be seen on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 07/1124Z. Observations indicate visibility as low as 1 mile with snow and fog. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 25 mph with the strongest winds on the Northwest Arctic Coast with gusts to 45 mph southwest of Point Lay. Highs in the single digits above, with lows in the single digits below. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly cloudy to cloudy with snow developing in the Lower Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valley this morning and spreading north and west mixing with rain from the Seward Peninsula south during the afternoon. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph locally gusting to around 30 mph, except northeast winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph around Point Hope and near passes in the Western Brooks Range. Winds will increase to 25 to 35 mph and gusty around Gambell this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will continue to slowly warm. Central and Eastern Interior...Partly to mostly cloudy next couple of days, but generally high clouds. A few sprinkles along the AlCan Border this afternoon and evening. Winds northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph. Highs in the mid 30s to around 50, and lows in the teens to around 30, except 10 to 20 degrees colder along the south slopes of the Brooks Range. && Fire Weather...No significant changes as Minimum Relative Humidity values will be in the 20 to 40 percent range with good overnight recovery. Temperatures slowly warming. Rain likely in the Western Interior and on the West Coast with some snow in the Brooks Range tonight and Monday. && Hydrology...Breakup will accelerate a bit as temperatures warm through the week. Extreme caution should be used crossing any of the Interior rivers as the ice continues to rot and be eroded from below. Caution should be used on lakes as the ice melts at different rates. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Active weather pattern returns to the West Coast while the Arctic and Interior will continue to see mild weather. A weather front will move up the West Coast Wednesday through Thursday morning, and a third front Thursday morning through Friday morning. Precipitation will primarily be rain though snow may mix in at higher elevations. Temperatures will slowly warm. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ217. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB APR 19  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 120033 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 333 PM AKST Fri Jan 11 2019 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Warmer temperatures area coming starting Sunday as we see a big pattern change to start the week. The stratus and light snow or flurries over the Central and Eastern Interior just keep hanging in, but they should finally erode away later this evening with skies clearing over the area and temperatures falling. The West Coast and Western Interior will remain COLD for another day, but will start warming tomorrow as a weather front is pushed northeast across the Bering Sea into the southwest mainland. The Arctic Coast will start warming slowly Saturday with high temperatures in the single digits by Tuesday. Models...Solutions appear to be a little more in sync with each other in both the short term and extended periods. There is still quite a bit of variance in the details, but the big picture is pretty similar. 11/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the local 11/18Z surface analysis for the most part. The solutions are not picking up the trough just north of the Eastern Arctic Coast, but they do develop one tonight. Aloft the 850 hpa temperatures initialized a couple 2 to 4 degrees warmer than observed values at McGrath, Fairbanks and Ft. Greeley this morning. Will be going with the same blend of NAM/SREF solutions for precipitation for the short term. Temperatures will be a real battle as the big warmup will not match any diurnal trend through mid week. Aloft...At 500 hpa...497 dam low is over Livengood this afternoon and will continue to move northeast as it elongates into a trough with a 505 dam low south of the Gulf of Anadyr, and the primary low over the Yukon Territory by Saturday morning. Ridging continues to build northwest over the state as the low moves out, and the long wave trough remains near the Dateline. A 514 dam low will move to Sand Point Saturday morning as it pushes into the ridge to lie from Cape Newenham to Kodiak City and southeast by Saturday evening, and by Sunday afternoon it will lie from Elim to Fairbanks to Northway as it pushes through the ridge. Troughing to the north will continue to stretch out and be pushed north over the Arctic nearshore waters by Saturday afternoon, and over the offshore waters by Sunday afternoon. The primary ridge axis lies from the Southeast Panhandle, over the Gulf of Alaska coast, and extends west over the Pribilofs this afternoon. By Sunday afternoon it will lie from the Southeast Panhandle over Yakutat to Nenana to Koyuk, and by Monday afternoon it will be over the Eastern Yukon Territory to Kaktovik, and northwest across the Arctic as strong south flow develops over the state. At 850 hpa...The -20C isotherm is south of the forecast area, but is starting to move back to the north and will be closely followed by the -10C isotherm. So, by Sunday afternoon the -20C isotherm will be north of the Arctic coast, and the -10C isotherm will lie along the south slopes of the Brooks Range. There may even be a few patches of near 0C over the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. Surface...Inverted trough is starting to fall apart, and the clouds and snow associated with it are dissipating slowly. Broad area of weak low pressure is taking hold over the interior with high pressure in the Yukon Territory, low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea, and high pressure around a 1040 mb high stretching across the Arctic offshore. By Saturday afternoon broad low pressure over the Bering Sea starts pushing in over the state and pushing the high further offshore in the Arctic. A weather front will move over the southwest mainland Sunday morning and continues to move up the West Coast and Western Interior through Monday. High pressure will persist over the Yukon Territory with cold air continuing to flow down the Tanana Valley, and Tanana Valley Jet in place. This will inhibit Chinook winds from developing and pushing into the interior very far, but there will be some gap winds gusting to 45 mph near the passes. Strong winds and Chinook developing west of Denali in the Alaska Range will produce winds gusting to around 50 mph Sunday morning into Monday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cold will hold on, and there is some stratus showing up on the NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 11/1953Z and it is being reported on most of the observations. Stratus will hold on over the area through the night, then expect some clearing during the day Saturday. Not much change in the temperatures until Saturday night when they will start rising. Winds west and south of Deadhorse northeast at 5 to 15 mph, while a trough offshore has turned winds from the southwest at 5 to 10 mph from Deadhorse east along the coast and it should stay that way through Saturday morning before they turn from the southwest. Winds have diminished in the Brooks Range, so will cancel the Wind Chill Warnings, but will maintain Wind Chill advisories for zone 203 and 204. West Coast and Western Interior...COLD for another day or so, and with winds increasing Wind Chill Advisories have been issued for most of the area for Wind Chill to 55 below. Approaching weather front will bring clouds to the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island early Saturday spreading north through the day, and temperatures will start rising. Snow developing late Saturday in the Lower Yukon Delta, and spreading north through the day Sunday. Some heavy snow Sunday from the Seward Peninsula south with up to 6 inches of accumulation in the Nulato Hills, and the Bendeleben Mountains. Central and Eastern Interior...Patchy stratus and flurries in the Interior will dissipate overnight in most areas, but expect some light accumulations. With clearing skies temperatures will be bottoming out tonight. Hoarfrost developing on objects as the atmosphere wrings out what little moisture there is available. Tanana Valley Jet setting up with cold air in Yukon Territory flowing down the valley. Winds in Delta Junction increasing Saturday and Saturday night to 20 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph. Some gap winds developing as well, but not too strong, and not strong enough to overcome the Tanana Valley Jet, but expect south winds to 50 mph near the Alaska Range Passes. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Will be warmer across the area, with more snow for the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island. A second front will move through the area Monday night and Tuesday spreading snow north to the Seward Peninsula. Will be pretty quiet in the Interior and on the Arctic. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209- AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ217-AKZ218. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB JAN 19  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 151423 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 523 AM AKST Thu Nov 15 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... An upper level ridge is building over Southwest Alaska and toward Southcentral Alaska. Mostly clear skies and light winds across much of this region has produced fairly steep surface-based inversions as seen on areas soundings. This in turn has led to development of areas of fog. Recent VIIRS nighttime microphysics imagery shows dense fog in Anchorage spreading southward to the western Kenai Peninsula. Other areas of fog are noted in the Copper River Basin and Bristol bay regions. Upstream of the ridge an upper low is lifting northward across the northern Bering Sea, with a trough axis extending southward across the eastern Bering. An inverted surface trough is right underneath the upper trough and is the focus for rain and snow showers. Meanwhile, a large vertically stacked gale force low is lifting northward from the North Pacific toward the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Lastly, a deep low is elongating to the southwest of the Western Aleutians. An occluded front is nearing the Aleutians, with rain and gale force winds spreading north and east along the chain. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in fairly good agreement with large scale features. There are some minor differences with position/strength of the North Pacific low as it approaches the Alaska Peninsula on Friday, but there is good agreement in the progression of the occluded front and associated precipitation out ahead of it. The main forecast challenge is determining the extent of freezing rain as warm air once again rides overtop of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska the next couple days. && .AVIATION... PANC...Dense fog (with LIFR conditions) remains the primary concern. Fog in the Anchorage area is more extensive compared to 24 hours ago. With very little change in winds until this afternoon expect fog will hold in through the morning hours. A slight increase in winds this afternoon should help mix out some of the fog, or perhaps even advect it southward away from the terminal. The fog seems like it will come right back after sunset late this afternoon. However, there will be more wind in the vicinity and winds along Turnagain Arm and on the mountains will steadily increase overnight, making fog less and less likely. Therefore, if fog does return, it should not be as long-lived as it has been the past couple nights. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today through Friday night)... Areas of fog will persist today, with some improvement expected in Anchorage and the western Kenai Peninsula this afternoon as northerly winds increase just a bit. The fog could return after sunset later today, but pressure gradients will tighten overnight as a front moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Increasing low level flow and mixing should help erode any fog for good by late tonight. Areas not in the fog will see another sunny day. The aforementioned front will lift northward to Kodiak Island tonight, with heavy rain and strong winds spreading northward across Kodiak and the western Gulf. As the front lifts northward to the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound on Friday, strong low level southeast flow looks like it will keep the western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valley mostly dry. A series of waves moving through the upper flow could produce a little precipitation, but if anything does fall expect it to be very light with little accumulation. Coastal areas can expect moderate to heavy precipitation as the upper trough becomes strongly negatively tilted and heads right for the Prince William Sound region. Marginally warmer air will advect northward with this storm system. The 12Z Anchorage sounding shows an above freezing warm nose remaining from the warm-up this past weekend. Thus, it won't take much warm advection to lead to precipitation falling in the form of rain. With persistent northerly winds at the surface, this again looks like a situation where surface temperatures will be slow to rise above freezing. Thus, there is potential for freezing rain from the western Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley Friday through Friday night. However, as mentioned above, downsloping should keep these areas mostly dry. Thus, have only included a chance of freezing rain in the forecast. If something does fall, it may be so light that there won't be any impacts. Plus, roads are already quite icy and it might not make any difference. In any case, will continue to evaluate this threat moving forward. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... (Today through Friday) The weather pattern looks to become more active over the next 24 to 36 hours, as a series of fronts brings precipitation to the region. The real question though for some locations will be what type of precipitation falls and how quickly does it change over to rain. More on that in a minute. Early this morning the latest nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows some fog and low stratus has developed across some of the coastal locations, especially Bristol Bay, and the interior valleys east of the Kilbuck Mountains. This may briefly intensify near sunrise before burning off by mid to late morning. Heading into the afternoon, a weak warm front attached to a Bering Sea low will lift northward across the region, with precipitation developing along it. The low-level winds will continue to be northeasterly along and ahead of the front, will just a few thousand feet above the ground southeasterly winds will advect above freezing temperatures and moisture into the region. This warmer/moist flow will also get a boost from a low in the Pacific heading towards the AKPEN. Taking a closer look at point soundings show the colder surface air will remain entrenched for the first hours or so along the coast, and a little bit longer inland, allowing for a period of snow to transition to a mix of or change over to freezing rain. Should this occur, any ice accumulations are expected to be just a few hundredths of an inch at most. Still, this could cause some travel impacts. For now, we decided to hold off on an advisory and await the next couple of model runs before deciding on any headlines. For your Friday, the Pacific low will reach the peninsula by early evening, bringing a reinforcing shot of warm air to the area. This type, all precipitation looks to be rain west of the Kilbuck Mountains, and south of the Nushagak Hills. Further northeast of these areas, wintry type precipitation will hold on longer as the colder air remains more terrain locked (almost like a mesoscale cold air damming effect), which could again lead to some headline concerns for freezing rain. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... (Today through Friday) The tale of two air masses in battle sums up much of the Bering Sea, as a pair of weak lows sits across the northern Bering and Pribilof Islands respectively this morning. To the east of these features, southerly flow is helping to draw warm air northward, while along and to the west of the lows a northerly flow dominates. This is allowing any precipitation to fall in the form of snow compared to points further east. Meanwhile, a front attached to a Kamchatka low is entering the western Aleutians, helping to advecting warmer air into this part of the Bering. This front will continue to move north and eastward through Friday morning as the parent low dives southeast towards this area while weakening, while the system begins to fill as it becomes vertically stacked and the front weakens. As for the sensible weather related to these features, snow will gradually transition to a mix of rain and snow for locations along and south of 55N, as the warmer air starts to take hold. The interesting part of this is several disturbances in the flow aloft will interact with the warmer tropical fetch advecting into the western Aleutians. This moisture-laden airmass moving over the cooler marine waters looks to create sufficient instability for a few thunderstorms to develop near and south of the Chain. As for winds, look for gale force winds along the front today to decrease to small craft criteria by Friday morning, as the pressure gradient weakens. Our attention then turns to a Pacific low heading towards the AKPEN on Friday. Model disagreement remains moderate with respect to strength of the low itself and the associated wind field strength, but, overall we expect widespread precipitation will develop along and ahead of this feature and its associated warm front, with sustained gales expected. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... The long-term forecast begins Saturday night with a surface low weakening east of Kodiak Island and its associated occluded front draped along the coast bringing another round of mixed wintry precipitation to Southcentral Alaska. A second trough follows on the heels of the first moving through the Gulf and impacting the Southcentral coast Sunday. Yet another trough slides across the Gulf on Monday, with the GFS bringing it closer to Southcentral while the EC slides the system farther east toward the Alaska Panhandle. All of this is in response to an upper-level trough situated along the western Alaska coast ejecting a series of shortwaves through the Gulf as it slowly moves across the mainland over the weekend. Confidence remains above average that conditions will remain wet and unsettled across southern Alaska through the weekend while under the influence of the long-wave trough. There is less confidence, however, in the timing of the mid-level shortwaves and associated surface features (and hence precipitation and wind along the coast) as the GFS and EC continue to disagree in their exact track through the Gulf. Guidance then goes completely off the rails moving into early next week with very low confidence in any solution overall. The main issue is with the upper-level solutions between the GFS and EC, specifically with the development of an upper-level low over eastern Russia and a shortwave tracking across the Aleutians. The EC is much faster in moving the Aleutian shortwave east and while suppressing the ridge over the the central and eastern Bering as it tracks well south of the AKPEN and shears apart by Tuesday in conjunction with the trailing upper level low now in the Bering. The GFS keeps the eastern Russia low in place on Monday allowing the Aleutian shortwave to intensify and move quickly into the Bering while pushing an amplified ridge over southwest Alaska. The shortwave then reaches the west coast by late Monday. A secondary low then develops south of the AKPEN and moves into the Gulf for mid-week. The GFS has had the better run to run consistency of the suite of long-term guidance and is favored over the EC. This would keep wet weather over the southern mainland through the weekend with a brief drying trend late Sunday through late Monday across the southwest and Monday through late Tuesday across Southcentral (especially the interior) before more wet weather returns. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory 101 121. MARINE...Gale Warnings 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139 150 177 178 351 352 411. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB/ALH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD LONG TERM...TM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 312116 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 116 PM AKDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...A fast moving low will continue to impact the Chukchi Sea and Northwest Arctic Coasts this evening, while high pressure will build over Interior Alaska with clearing skies and cooling temperatures. Heavy snow, strong gusty winds, and elevated surf expected from Cape Krusenstern north to Point Barrow as the low and front move through. Snow will be mainly inland, as temperatures on the coast will warm. Temperatures in the Interior cooling under the mostly clear skies. Models...The 31/12Z solutions fall in line with previous solutions and are in good agreement into the midrange due mostly to the stalled ridging over the state with the blocking trough over Canada. Going to use a fairly even blend for into the midrange for all but the temperatures which will need to be handled individually as guidance has performed poorly as we transition into low angle sun and snow covered ground winter conditions. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Pattern will become stagnant as ridging builds over the state with a 543 dam cutoff high over McGrath by Thursday morning, a 528 dam low over the Yukon/Northwest Territories border, and longwave trough over the Western Bering Sea with a 513 dam low south of Attu. The ridge hangs on over the state as it slides north over the Upper Kobuk by Saturday morning at 540 dam, while the low south of Attu moves over Unimak Island at 518 dam. The low continues to move east while the high remains stationary over the Upper Kobuk. Trough to the east will dig southwest over Yakutat Sunday. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm lies from Beaver Creek to Fairbanks to Ambler to Point Barrow this afternoon, and will be pushed northeast to be north of the Arctic Coast, and over the AlCan Border by Thursday afternoon. 0C isotherm will be pushed over the Alaska Range and Lower Yukon Delta. Surface...High pressure over most of the state with a 1026 mb high near Ft Yukon. A 997 mb low has moved to the northern Chukchi Sea and the associated warm front is moving over the Western Brooks Range this evening. The low will continue into the Arctic and will be 200 nm north of Point Barrow by Thursday afternoon, and the warm front will move east over the coast to Demarcation Point with cold front extending southwest from the low across the Chukchi Sea. High pressure over the Interior will continue to build with 1022 mb center near Ft Yukon, a 1021 mb center in the Upper Tanana Valley, and a 1018 mb center in the Upper Kobuk Valley with ridging extending west to the Chukotsk Peninsula, and southwest to King Salmon. A 982 mb low will move east across the southern Gulf of Alaska tonight, and a 963 mb low will move to Nikolski Friday morning, and into the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday afternoon. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front moving rapidly northeast over the Northwest Arctic Coast will move into the Arctic after bringing strong winds, snow, and some freezing rain to areas mainly west of Nuiqsut. 2 to 4 inches of snow expected on the Northwest Coast with less than one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation south of Point Lay this evening. South to Southwest winds west of Deadhorse this evening with gusts on the Northwest Coast to 55 mph. Locally expect gusts to 65 mph near Cape Lisburne this evening. Winds will diminish to 15 to 25 mph as the low pulls out over the Arctic, and winds from Deadhorse east will turn from the southeast to southwest at 10 to 20 mph. West Coast and Western Interior...Heavy snow along the Chukchi Sea Coast south of Kivalina and in the Western Brooks Range as low moves across the Chukchi Sea this evening. Strong gusty winds will continue into the evening, then diminish through the night. Elevated surf along the coast north of Cape Krusenstern will also settle down. Additional snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches in the Western Brooks Range, with up to 2 inches along the coast. There will be a mix of rain and snow from Kivalina north as warm air surges north over the Chukchi Sea. Ice accumulation of up to one tenth of an inch north of Red Dog Dock along the coast. Temperatures along the coast will start cooling later this evening as the warm air moderates, and flow turns to offshore. In the inland areas expect clearing and cooling conditions through at least Saturday. Central and Eastern Interior...Some low clouds floating around will gradually dissipate or move out of the area with mostly clear skies tonight through at least Friday. Temperatures will continue to fall and the inversion will strengthen. Winds generally northeast less than 5 mph in the valleys, but expect northeast winds to pick up over the summits gusting to 25 mph Thursday. Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Ridging holds on over the eastern half of the state into the middle of next week with longwave trough over the Eastern Bering Sea bringing periods of rain/snow or rain and snow to coastal areas and snow to the Western Interior. A strong low will move to the Eastern Bering Sea Tuesday and may produce elevated surf from the Bering Strait south and in Norton Sound. In the Arctic easterly to southeasterly flow remain over the area with stratus and periods of snow or flurries. Low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will spin some moisture north into the Southeast Interior spreading some snow or flurries as far northwest as Fairbanks and north to Eagle. Satellite...A great image of the stratus over the state, and the fog in the valleys of the Goodpaster, Salcha, and Copper River Basins today on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 31/1407Z. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230-PKZ500. Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ500. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235. && $$ SDB OCT 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 231217 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 417 AM AKDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...A stacked low will move from the Gulf of Alaska to Norton Sound today and tonight. Precipitation will move into the Southeast Interior this morning and spread northwest through the day. Precipitation will reach the Middle Tanana Valley around noon today, spreading west and north tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten across the Alaska Range today with leeside trough developing north of the Range producing with Chinook winds developing this afternoon and continuing tonight. Winds increasing over the summits in the Interior and the Brooks Range as well. Strong east winds developing on the Arctic Coast tonight as the front moves to the area with blowing and drifting snow. Models...Big picture the solutions are not doing too bad, but when you get down in the weeds, they are not doing so well. Solutions have jumped around quite a bit with the precipitation solutions, and there continues to be a fairly wide range of solutions in the 23/00Z runs. Going to lean toward the 23/00Z NAM solution for precipitation as it seems to be working out better at this time. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging lying east to west between the ranges will be pushed north over the Arctic Coast this afternoon, and over the offshore waters tonight. The ridge is pushed north by a 518 dam low over the Gulf of Alaska that will push northwest to be over Norton Sound by Wednesday morning at 518 dam. A 518 dam low over Cold Bay will slowly drift southeast to 100 nm south of Sand Point by Wednesday morning, while a 516 dam low over Siberia this afternoon will move over the Central Bering Sea by Wednesday morning. Long wave trough will extend from the Siberian Arctic over the Northwest Arctic coast, West Coast, Alaska Peninsula, and Western Gulf of Alaska with several lows rotating around in the trough as it slowly expands east over the state through the week. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies from Old Crow YT to Ambler, to Marshall this morning and will push north and west as the dome of warmer air moderates with the 0C isotherm redeveloping from Demarcation Point to Beaver to Nikolai by Thursday morning. It will move west through the afternoon Thursday, then be pushed back east and south Saturday. Surface...958 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska is moving onshore this morning, and the associated warm front is moving over the southeast mainland and into the Copper River Delta and north up the AlCan Border this morning. The low will move over McGrath this afternoon with the front extending east along the Western Alaska Range to Eagle. By Wednesday morning the low will be in Norton Sound at 978 mb with the front extending to Huslia to Fort Yukon and east. Leeside troughing develops north of the Brooks Range tonight with 987 mb low near Kaktovik. Tight pressure gradient develops this afternoon and evening across the Alaska Range, and the summits in the interior with some strong gusty winds developing. Winds on the Arctic Coast will increase as the trough develops tonight. The pressure gradient also tightens up over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and Eastern Bering Sea with strong winds developing that will persist into Friday before diminishing. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Not looking for much change in the Arctic with the exception of increasing winds this evening. SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB product shows a broad area of low clouds across the area, and the GOES MVFR/IFR products at 23/1030Z indicate broad areas of MVFR and IFR conditions over most of the Arctic, Arctic Plains, Brooks Range, and Chukchi Sea. Expect some flurries across the area as well, but no accumulation expected until Wednesday morning. Northeast to east winds over most of the area today and tonight in advance of the weather front moving into the area. Winds generally 10 mph or less today will increase to 20 to 40 mph along the coast, and 5 to 15 mph in the inland plains. Expect some gusty winds to 35 mph near the Brooks Range Passes as the front moves through the area Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish Wednesday afternoon as the front lifts offshore. Temperatures will be fairly steady with highs in the lower 30s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying front over the west coast will continue to fall apart and be pushed north and west as low pressure system moves to Norton Sound tonight. Expect some breaks in the clouds today between systems. Winds generally north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph today with winds in the lower Yukon Delta swinging around to southwest tonight as the low moves to Norton Sound. Precipitation will be a mixed bag depending on where, and when it starts, but most likely will start out rain and mix with snow before for a while before changing back to rain from Buckland south. North of Buckland expect mainly snow, but it may mix with rain during the afternoon hours. Winds in the Middle Yukon Valley and Upper Noatak and Kobuk valleys will be east at 5 to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph as the front moves through the area tonight and Wednesday. Temperatures steady with highs around 40 and lows in the 30s to upper 20s for most areas. Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds starting in the southeast interior this morning with snow in the Upper Tanana Valley turning to rain this morning. A mix of precipitation will spread to the Middle Tanana Valley later this morning as temperatures rise into the 30s turning to all rain for the afternoon hours. Some Freezing Rain will be possible in areas where the roadways do not warm significantly, those would be highly shaded roads, and roads in east to west valley locations. North of the Middle Tanana there will be a mix of precipitation to the Yukon River, then snow to the north. Snow levels will vary in the interior, but generally above 1500 feet there will be some snow accumulation with around 2 inches in the White and Ray mountains. Along the Steese Highway in the Valleys and around Central and Circle Hot Springs expect a mix of precipitation starting as snow and turning to snow with some freezing rain in the evening. Heaviest snowfall will be east of the Dalton Highway along the south slopes of the Brooks Range. Along the Dalton Highway expect 2 to 4 inches of new snow from Livengood to Atigun Pass. Temperatures will be on a roller coaster as they warm into the 40s today in the Tanana Valley, and 30s in the Upper Yukon. Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Models solutions are a mixed bag, but it looks like winter is finally on its way and some solutions indicate we could see 2 to 4 inches of snow Sunday. Solutions also have temperatures falling with highs below freezing starting Monday with lows in the teens next week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Persistent north winds will develop over the Chukchi Sea and through the Bering Strait tonight into Friday morning with elevated surf at Shishmaref, in the Bering Strait, and from Savoonga east on St Lawrence Island. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ225-AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240- PKZ245. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB OCT 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 301254 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 454 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A ridge of high pressure remains parked over the state today, continuing the trend for fair weather across much of the Mainland. The area of low pressure responsible for the gusty southeasterly winds across the central and eastern Aleutians yesterday has now moved into the northwestern Bering. A strong gradient between the high over the mainland and the low pressure over the Bering Sea is maintaining the strong south to southeast wind along the Bering Sea coast and over the eastern Bering Sea. An upper level North Pacific low is currently situated just south of Dutch Harbor. The leading front associated with this low will continue to bring southeasterly winds along the eastern Aleutians and AKPEN. Radar imagery this morning indicates rain and low level stratus and fog along the coastal areas of Southwest Alaska as the front approaches. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Overall, models remain in good synoptic agreement through the next 48 hours. Differences arise by Tue morning as the remnants of typhoon Trami enter the western Bering. Models currently agree on the phasing of the upper level low currently south of Dutch Harbor with the upper level remnants of Trami beginning Mon evening over the central Bering. At this time, the GFS/EC solution shows a slightly faster track while the NAM keeps the low further west. With large uncertainties in timing and position, GFS was still preferred with this morning's forecast package. && .AVIATION... The main issue will be with the potential for stratus and fog this morning and again overnight tonight. The latest satellite imagery (nighttime microphysics) did not show any stratus in the northern Inlet, although that was from around 1030Z. At this point we will stick some IFR Cigs and Vsby in for this morning then VCFG for the late night and morning hours again tonight and Mon morning, though generally keeping the prevailing conditions VFR with light wind. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the region for the next two days with the only exception being Kodiak which will see a front move over that area tomorrow. With the high pressure, the only real question will be the development of fog. A nighttime microphysics pass from the VIIRS satellite taken around 2:30 AM AKDT shows the development of fog in the river valleys of the eastern Kenai Peninsula, eastern Turnagain Arm, as well as in the Eagle River and Eklutna River valleys. The Copper River Basin, which had some extensive fog and stratus yesterday is almost completely clear of fog at this time. Fog should overall be less than yesterday, with some areas developing again Sunday night into Monday morning. Temperatures will remain well above normal today and tomorrow for most of southcentral Alaska with a cooling trend back toward normal after that. A front will move over Kodiak Island from the southwest tomorrow and bring back rain to the area as well as strong southeast winds. This front will then slowly progress northward through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Winds will remain the focus across Southwest Alaska through Monday as a tight pressure gradient lingers over the region. The gradient is the result of a stationary ridge situated downstream in the northern Gulf and a trough upstream extending across the eastern Bering. As the next surface low begins to track northeast toward the AKPEN today, the gradient will tighten and the southeasterly winds will increase, especially across Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta with the highest speeds along the coasts. Scattered showers will also develop along the coast later today and continue through Monday as the low dissipates and transitions to an open wave. For upslope areas of the AKPEN, the persistent southerly flow will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain. Any lingering showers from the now dissipating trough will move inland on Tuesday as an occluded front extending from a strong storm system over the western Bering advances toward the Southwest with another shot of rain and gusty southerly winds. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A low well south of Atka will move toward Dutch Harbor today. The rain and gusty southeasterly winds that developed overnight across the eastern Bering will continue through early Monday before diminishing as the low tracks north and fills in. Over the central Bering, gusty northerly flow will increase tonight around the back side of the low passing to the south and east. Then all eyes turn to the remnants of typhoon Trami as it tracks quickly toward the western Aleutians. This system will transition to a powerful extratropical storm as it taps into a cold air mass over the Kamchatka Peninsula. Storm-force winds will move over Shemya and Attu Monday as its associated front sweeps across the western Aleutians. There is still some uncertainty as to the exact track of this low once it passes west of Attu; however, current guidance continues to place the center of circulation well north and west of the Aleutians. If this trend holds, it is looking more likely that the core of strongest winds associated with the colder air wrapping underneath the low will remain over the open waters of the western and central Bering through Tuesday where gusts could approach 70 kts. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... (Wednesday through Saturday) A very unsettled pattern will persist for the middle to latter part of the week, as the remnants of the former Super Typhoon Trami, which is currently near Japan, move northeast towards the western Bering Sea. It is expected to then turn eastward as it merges with a trough coming off the Kamchatka Peninsula. The numerical models all agree in this scenario, but they differ in speed and strength as the system bumps into a persistent ridge stretching from the North Slope through the Kenai Peninsula, and into the Gulf. Initially, the models are in good agreement with the pattern aloft on Wednesday, but they quickly begin to diverge some 24 hours later, as the GFS looks to have a faster progression with the system as the ridge slides off to the east while weakening. This storm will be unusually strong for the Bering Sea for this time of year, as it will be 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal. Most of the region along and north of the western Aleutians will see storm force winds with hurricane force gusts likely. An associated occluded front will cross into southwestern parts of the state by evening, with widespread rainfall accompanying it, with another low developing near Kodiak. This rainfall will also spread northeast during the evening and into Thursday for most of Southcentral and the Kenai/Prince William Sound region. Meanwhile, another north Pacific low will strengthen as it crosses the central portions of the chain, lifting north towards Saint Matthew Island on Friday, while sending another front through the southwest with more rainfall developing. Similar to its predecessor, another Kodiak low will form Friday evening, reaching Prince William Sound late Saturday, spreading widespread rainfall across all of Southcentral and into the Copper River Basin. However, it's important to note that as we approach next weekend, model diversity increases somewhat, which is typical given its 5 to 7 days out. Added to the mix is that everything is dependent on if the models handle the first extra-tropical system correctly, so forecast changes are probable for the latter half of the week. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale 150-170 172 174 177 180 181. Storm 178. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO/SA SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TM LONG TERM...PD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 212134 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 134 PM AKDT Mon May 21 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...More seasonal weather with showers developing across the Interior during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorm activity will be limited the next couple days, but expect as least a few to pop up during the day. Another weather front will swing northwest into the interior tonight spreading showers to the area mainly south and east of Ruby. The Arctic remains quiet with low stratus ceilings. Trough over the West Coast will continue to produce some isolated showers. Breakup has moved to the Lower Yukon, see below for details. Models...Not a lot of change from yesterday, the surface solutions initialized well against the 21/18Z analysis. Stability indicies once again are not great, but there is still some Lifted Indicies around zero in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley, and along the AlCan Border, along with some none zero CAPE. Going with a similar approach as yesterday and going to use use an equal blend for most elements with a strong lean toward continuity since there are no significant changes expected. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad trough over the state with a 522 dam center 250 nm southeast of Kodiak Island. A 537 dam center will develop over Huslia this evening. the primary center will weaken to 532 dam by Tuesday afternoon while a 540 dam center will develop over Eagle, and a 535 dam center will move out of Siberia over the Chukotsk Peninsula. A weak ridge will stick its nose up over the Eastern Bering Sea tonight, and over the southwest mainland Tuesday afternoon, pushing northeast over the Alaska Range Tuesday night with a 544 dam center over Denali. A 548 dam center over the Eastern Arctic/Beaufort Sea will persist merging with a 549 dam center over the Siberian Arctic. As the centers merge the center over the Eastern Arctic moves to 200 nm north of Point Barrow. By Wednesday morning the 544 dam center over Denali will merge with ridging over the Yukon Territory, and the Ridging over the Arctic. At 850 hpa...Zero Isotherm has pushed north and west over all but the Northwest Arctic Coast. Expect it to push back northwest over the coast by Thursday morning. The Zero isotherm will be push south to the Brooks Range this weekend. Surface...High pressure persisting over the Arctic with a 1025 mb center and the axis along 78N. Broad area of low pressure over the state with a 986 mb low 100 nm southeast of Kodiak Island and a trough that extends north to a 993 mb low near McGrath, a 993 mb low near Nenana, and 991 mb low near Delta Junction, and 993 mb low Beaver Creek YT. A bubble high has pushed northwest over the Copper River Basin, and a 999 mb low has developed in Kotzebue Sound. By Tuesday afternoon the low southeast of Kodiak will weaken to 1002 mb and troughing will lie from a 1003 mb low near Dillingham to a 998 mb low near Stevens Village to 996 mb low east of Chalkyitsik. High pressure over the Copper River Basin will push northwest over the Alaska Range. Not much change by Wednesday morning as the low near Kodiak continues to weaken before eventually merging with a low that will be moving through across the southern Bering Sea. The high pressure over Southcentral and the Alaska Range will persist, and thermal trough will be over the Upper Yukon Flats. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...The stratus story continues as spring in the Arctic continues. The 21/2000Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products indicate MVFR conditions over the Coastal areas and Plains, and the SPoRT LEO 24hr Microphysics RGB at 21/1820Z confirms it. Observations showing 400 to 1000 foot ceilings for most areas. Expect some light snow developing over the Eastern Arctic as weak upper level wave moves through the area tonight. Northeast to east winds will continue at 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures steady, then cooling Friday. West Coast and Western Interior...Troughing over the area will bring periods of clouds and sun to the area. A low developing in Kotzebue Sound will bring cloudy conditions to that area with showers. Isolated to scattered showers for the remainder of the area as the front spins into the area and stalls in the Upper Kuskokwim and Middle Yukon Valleys. Isolated Thunderstorms this evening south of Kaltag. Patchy Dense Fog will return to the Lower Yukon Delta Tuesday morning, mainly west of Anvik, with improving conditions after 10 am AKDT. Winds northeast to northwest at 5 to 20 mph except near the Bering Strait winds to 40 mph this evening diminishing to 25 mph overnight. No significant change in temperatures expected. See below for river information. Central and Eastern Interior...Partly sunny from Fairbanks south and east this evening, then increasing clouds with showers developing east of Fairbanks overnight. Mostly cloudy to the north and west with showers through the evening. As another front moves northwest it will spread the showers to the north and west Tuesday. Some heavier showers possible in the Fortymile Country, Middle Tanana Valley around Delta Junction, and Eastern Alaska Range with up to one inch of rain from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning. As the front spins through the area expect isolated thunderstorms to pop up in the afternoon hours. Winds generally less than 15 mph will be swinging around from west to south by Wednesday morning, then back from the West by Thursday morning. Some of the rivers are running a bit high, but not expect to leave their banks, however with the heavier rain possible the next couple days we will need to monitor them closely, and residents should do the same if they are near them. No significant change in high temperatures through midweek, but overnight lows will be cooler overnight with the cloudy conditions and showers. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thermal lies from McGrath to Fairbanks to Beaver Creek YT and will move to lie from McGrath to Stevens Village to Central to Eagle by Tuesday afternoon. Around 40 lightning strikes detected yesterday, expect fewer today with most likely areas around McGrath, and along the AlCan Border. Showers primarily developing over the Eastern Interior, and the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys this evening, but expect isolated showers in most areas. Most shower activity on Tuesday will be south and east of Ruby, with just some isolated showers in the Central and Eastern Brooks Range. Thunderstorm activity Tuesday will primarily be along a line from McGrath to Fairbanks to Eagle. Lowest Relative Humidity values will be around 30 percent Tuesday, will some values around 25 percent Wednesday in the Upper Yukon Flats and Middle Koyukuk Valley. Winds generally less than 15 mph through Wednesday. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Yukon River in the Lower Delta is slowly clearing. NPP-VIIRS APRFC River Flood Areal Extent product at 20/2345Z shows some potential overflow flooding from the Sag River near Dalton Highway milepost 386. Have not received any information concerning flooding, so will continue to monitor the area and seek more informations. Interior rivers have slowly risen this weekend, and the precipitation from last night will be making its way into the mainstem rivers over the next 24 hours, so expect they will rise a bit more. Some low lying sloughs adjacent to the rivers may rise as well, but do not anticipate any flooding at this time. For the latest breakup information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are not helping out much with the extended periods, so expect temperatures near seasonal normals with highs around 50 on the West Coast, around 30 on the Arctic Coast, and in the 60s in the Interior. Thermal trough will be on the move shifting north and south from the Tanana Valley to the Upper Yukon Flats through the extended period. A weather front will move to lie southwest to northeast across the Interior Friday and slowly move to the west. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAY 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 131255 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 455 AM AKDT Fri Apr 13 2018 .DISCUSSION... Quiet weather pattern will continue across most of Northern Alaska, except for along the West Coast where models are hinting at a transition to a more active pattern this weekend. Winds will be the primary forecast concern today with the focus shifting to the potential for the season's first significant rainfall this weekend over the lower Yukon Valley and Yukon Delta. The latest models solutions are in fair agreement through the weekend with some spread in solutions developing early next week and large differences in the overall upper level synoptic pattern mid to late next week. Aloft...at H500 a weak ridge over the Interior will give way to a shortwave that is progged to drop south towards the arctic coast today and then onshore over the eastern North Slope and Brooks Range tonight, then over the interior Saturday and then southeast into the Yukon by Sunday morning. Colder H850 temperatures will accompany this trough spilling southward today with temperatures dropping by 10 C by tomorrow morning. The coldest H850 temperatures will be confined over the northeast corner of Alaska. A 545 dam ridge of high pressure will build south from the eastern Siberian Sea over the Chukotsk Peninsula and Bering Strait by tonight merging with a ridge building north from the northern Pacific tomorrow morning, then move east over the forecast area this weekend. A 507 dam low in the western Bering Sea and trough extending south will slowly swing east towards the west coast this weekend. A second low will enter the western Bering late Monday and then move east through mid week. Eastern and Central Interior...Gusty northeast winds up to 45 mph developed overnight in the higher terrain and summits in zones 219 and 220 precipitating the need for a short-term wind advisory through this morning. Winds will weaken later this morning as the gradient weakens. The main story will be the transition from beautiful, warm spring weather to colder conditions today and for the weekend. Daytime high temperatures will be around 10 degrees cooler today and will cool into the mid 30s Saturday. Overnight lows will drop 10 to 15 degrees bottoming out Sunday morning near zero over the northern Interior and single digits above zero elsewhere. Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers possible through Saturday afternoon. As high pressure builds over the area late this weekend into next week, clearing skies and warmer temperatures are expected. North Slope and Brooks Range...Strong north gap winds through Brooks Range passes will weaken today as high pressure builds south and the gradient over the Brooks Range weakens. Cooler temperatures over the next couple of day, followed by a warmup into next week. A band of stratus over the western arctic coast visible on the VIIRS 11-3.7um difference satellite product will persist into this evening before clearing out as winds shift to the east. High pressure building over the area will keep the weather pretty quiet through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior...Gusty northeast winds will gradually weaken through the day from north to south along the west coast. The relatively quiet pattern will come to an end as a strong low moves into the Bering Sea with a front moving east towards the coast Saturday. This system is progged to bring significant rainfall of between 0.25 to 0.50 inches over the southwest, Saint Lawrence Island, and the Norton Sound coast through Monday morning. The 13/00Z NAFES standardized anomalies indicate that the moisture associated with this system will be anomalous with mean precipitable water standardize anomalies of 3.5 to 4.0 with mean integrated water vapor transport standardize anomalies between 5.0 to 6.1, near the max of climatology for April. The amount of moisture with this system may pose a problem, especially over the Yukon Delta and lower Yukon Valley where precipitation will fall as rain. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220. && $$ LTH APR 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 272045 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1245 PM AKDT Tue Mar 27 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Short term solutions continue to do fairly well, with the exception of temperatures. There continue to be wild swings in the models from run to run beyond 60 hours or so. Will use the NAM for precipitation today. For temperatures will rely quite bit on continuity making site specific edits in the short term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Very little change again today in the big picture. High amplitude ridging persists and center has moved to 100 nm north of Kuparuk at 535 dam with ridging extending southeast over Fort Yukon and Yakutat. Troughing to the east remains in place with a 491 dam low over Nunavut and a shortwave extending southwest over Mayo YT with very weak trough extending to the 520 dam low over the Lower Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. By Wednesday afternoon the center near Kuparuk will move to 200 nm north of Demarcation Point, with ridging over the AlCan border. The weak trough to the south will slide north over the interior to lie from Eagle to Fairbanks to 529 dam low now over the Seward Peninsula. The ridge will slide east as the center move to Observation Point NWT at 542 dam Thursday afternoon, while the low moves north over Point Lay at 532 dam with the trough extending south over Bethel, and weak troughing persisting across the interior. At 850 hpa...Slightly cooler air over the northeast mainland with temperatures around -13C, while the remainder of the forecast area will generally have temperatures in the -5C to -10C range. Surface...Slowly changes are starting to happen that will change up the pattern across the area. A 1019 mb high remains in the Eastern Arctic with a 1018 mb high building into the upper Porcupine Basin, and a 1018 mb high in the Eastern Yukon Territory. Troughing remains over the Arctic Plains and will slowly start lifting out to the northeast as the high to the north moves east. The trough will be over the Eastern Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning and the tighter pressure gradient will move offshore. As that happens, the ridging over the interior strengthens, so the pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range will remain basically unchanged. 998 mb low over the Kuskokwim Delta will move north to Golovin tonight at 1014 mb, then fills rapidly as it moves northeast and merges into the troughing over the Arctic. As the low fills, high pressure will build southwest to the Kuskokwim Delta behind it with a 1037 mb high over Kuskokwim Bay by Friday morning. Southwest flow will develop over the Chukchi Sea and Western Arctic Thursday night as a low moves out of the Sea of Ohkotsk into Siberia and to 100 nm north of Wrangel Island Saturday night, then moves east across the Arctic. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...With trough lifting northeast, winds will continue to diminish this evening on the coast, but winds in the Eastern Brooks Range will continue as the high to the south strengthens. Mostly clear conditions continue into Thursday, except on the northwest coast where clouds will move into the area overnight. Temperatures will not change significantly through Friday morning. Some stratus hanging well offshore east of Point Barrow can be seen on the NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 27/1714Z, but do not expect it to make it to the coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Low is moving into the Kuskokwim Delta and continues to spread scattered snow showers to the lower Yukon Delta and as it moves north will spread them to the Seward Peninsula and Nulato Hills tonight, and to areas north of the Seward Peninsula Tomorrow. Still expecting only about an inch of snow every 12 hours as it spreads north. Snow tapers off from the south Thursday night through Friday mid day. Temperature a couple degrees warmer in some locations, but overall no significant changes through Friday. Central and Eastern Interior...Decaying trough will move into the area from the south Wednesday with some isolated to scattered snow showers, mainly west of Fairbanks Wednesday night and Thursday. The trough will remain over the area with a chance of snow showers through Friday. Front moving across the state Saturday night will bring snow to most of the area by Sunday morning. High pressure over the Eastern Interior will keep most of the area clear again tonight, and with light winds temperatures will fall sharply in the areas north and east of Fairbanks. Winds mainly northeast 5 to 15 mph. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...The solutions have waffled again, but at least they both show a shortwave flashing across northern Alaska and the Arctic this weekend with a ridge building over the Eastern Bering Sea as a trough digs south over eastern Alaska. Going to lean on the WPC solution again since which is Ensemble based and much more stable than the models have been. So, expect snow moving west to east across northern Alaska Saturday, then south over the Eastern half of the state Sunday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 242211 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 211 PM AKDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Not much change from yesterday, solutions continue to be pretty sketchy beyond 48 hours, but not quite as bad as yesterday. Still quite a bit of disagreement in the details, but the big picture pattern is coming more into focus. Going to lean toward the NAM precipitation solution again since it is not spreading the precipitation out so much. Solutions continue to struggle with temperatures as guidance has 10 to 20 degree spreads in some locations, and varies by locations so no single solution can be used. So, will need to do a lot of single point editing. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the central part of the state with a 543 dam high 300 nm north of Nuiqsut and the axis extending south over Telida and the southern tip of Kodiak Island. Troughing to the east with a 500 dam low developing over the Northwest Territories tonight with a shortwave extending southwest to Cordova, and to the west trough extends from the New Siberian Islands to a 513 dam low 200 nm north of Atka. By Sunday afternoon the ridge will lie from a 533 dam center 100 nm north of Point Barrow over Tanana to Whittier, and south. The low to the east will move just a little, with trough continuing to push southwest to Yakutat. The low near Atka will move to the Pribilof Islands at 509 dam. There is not much change through Monday as the low over the Pribilofs moves toward Nunivak Island, but stalls as the ridge bulges to the west over the Bering Strait and prevents it from moving north. The high will drift to 200 nm north of Point Barrow. To the east the broad area of lower heights continues and the trough slides north and will lie over the Upper Tanana Valley over Tok and the Copper River Basin. At 850 hpa...Around -12C over the eastern 1/3 of the state, and -5C to -10 over the remainder of the area and not expecting much change through Tuesday. Surface...Trough of low pressure persists over the Gulf of Alaska Coast and Southeast Panhandle. High pressure continues over most of mainland Alaska with a 1037 mb high 400 nm of Demarcation Point extending south over MacKenzie Bay to a 1030 mb high east of Old Crow, then southwest to Anvik, and finally south to 1019 mb high near the Shelikof Strait. Elongated trough of low pressure extends from a 995 low near the New Siberian Island to a 993 mb low in the Gulf of Anadyr to a 980 mb low 200 north of Atka. Not much change the next 24 hours of so except for the low moving to the pribilof Islands at 975 mb. That movement will tighten the gradient up across the Alaska and Brooks Ranges as leeside troughing develops to the north of them. With strong high pressure to the east the gradient also tightens over the Upper Tanana Valley, and expect the summit winds to pick up a bit as well. As the high weakens on Sunday afternoon the gradient will relax as well and winds will diminish. Precipitation will be limited to the Lower Yukon Delta, Bering Strait, and southern Seward Peninsula, but not expecting much. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blowing snow continues to be an issue. Visibility has gone down as winds have increase just a few mph today, so conditions improving this evening as the winds diminish. Winds increasing again tomorrow during the afternoon, so expect the visibility to be reduced again. Not seeing much stratus on the NPP-VIIRS at 24/1857Z over the Arctic Coast, so do not expect that to be much of an issue tonight. It does look like there are some open leads along the northwest coast from Point Barrow to Point Hope. No significant change in temperatures through Sunday. West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying occluded front continues to fall apart with only a few spreads left over in the northwest interior. A low moving to the southeastern Bering Sea is spreading a mix of precipitation to the lower Yukon Delta, and snow to the southern Seward Peninsula and St Lawrence Island. Will have to force in a chance of snow for those areas this evening as models keep it just offshore. No significant accumulations expected. Not much change in temperatures through the weekend. Inland locations can expect lows in the single digits with the clearing skies. Southeast winds picking up a bit on St Lawrence Island to around 25 mph, with wind on the Lower Yukon Delta Coast picking up to around 20 mph. Elsewhere winds will be northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph with generally light winds inland. As the low pushes closer to the coast Sunday winds in the lower Yukon Delta west of Anvik will pick up to 15 to 25 mph. Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure persists over the area with partly cloudy conditions. Expect big diurnal temperature swings with lows -10 to +5 and highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Winds generally light at night, then northeast at 5 to 15 mph during the day. The exceptions will be tonight the Tanana Valley Jet will kick in around Delta Junction and winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty into Sunday evening, and winds around Nenana and over the flats south of Fairbanks will also be breezy Sunday with 10 to 20 mph winds. Gap winds in the Alaska Range kick in with the leeside trough developing, and will be gusting to around 45 mph Sunday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...A little more faith in the extended periods, but mainly since they are building a ridge, and that seems to be something they have handled well that last few weeks. Stacked low in the southeastern Bering Sea will finally gets kicked out as ridging over the AlCan moves east, and ridging builds over the western Bering Sea. The ridging moves to the eastern Bering Sea by Thursday evening and builds northeast across the state with a closed 568 dam center over the Lower Yukon Delta. As the trough is forced east by the ridge expect some spotty precipitation across the area, but at this time nothing significant. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Gale Warning for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 232050 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1250 PM AKDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Solutions continue to be pretty sketchy beyond 48 hours, and they are still overdoing the precipitation, so will need to cut that back a bit. For the short term the NAM and GFS seems to be doing the best right now, but none of them have a handle on temperatures. In the midrange there is some concensus on the blocking ridge slowly moving east over the Interior, but remaining over the Central Arctic. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the central part of the state with a 543 dam high near Point Barrow, while a 497 dam low over Siberia continues to slowly move north and weaken. By Saturday afternoon the high will be 500 nm north of Point Barrow at 537 dam with the ridge axis extending south over Kodiak Island, while the low will be the New Siberian Islands at 500 dam with the trough extending southwest over Amchitka. A 501 dam low will develop east of Banks Island Saturday morning and move south over the Northwest Territories at 499 dam by Sunday morning. The ridge remains over the state Sunday, but the high will be near Point Barrow again at 535 dam with the axis extending southeast over Valdez, then south. A low will develop in the trough to the west north of Amchitka Saturday morning, and move east to the Pribilof Islands by Sunday morning at 505 dam. The high over the Arctic Coast will remain near Point Barrow through Monday morning at 533 dam, while the low over the Pribilofs will move over Nunivak Island at 501 dam as it starts to ride up the western flank of the ridge. At 850 hpa...Temperatures over most of the state area generally around -5C, with colder air to the east and west. The slightly warmer air will be squeezed out by the cooler to the east and west through the weekend. Surface...Trough of low pressure persists over the Gulf of Alaska Coast and Southeast Panhandle. High pressure continues over the eastern half of the mainland with a 1031 mb high in the Upper Yukon Flats extending north to a 1038 mb high 600 nm north of Demarcation Point. The high pressure over the Upper Yukon Flats extends west to the Middle Yukon River Valley, then southwest to a 1025 mb high 300 nm south of Cold Bay. A broad area of low pressure remains to the west and extends from the Siberian Arctic south to the Western Aleutians. By Saturday afternoon the trough over the Bering Sea will move east to lie from the New Siberian Islands to the Gulf of Anadyr to a 982 mb low 250 nm north of Atka, and the ridge of high pressure will be over the Beaufort Sea extending southwest to the Eastern Alaska Peninsula, then south over the Pacific. The trough over the Gulf coast will also shift offshore. By Sunday afternoon the low in the Bering Sea will move to just west of Nunivak Island at 976 mb, while the high pressure continues to hang on over the northeastern half of the state and Arctic with a 1022 mb high over the Northwest Territories, and a 1024 mb high over the southern Beaufort Sea. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Blowing snow is the biggest issue this evening, but winds will slowly diminish and visibility will improve. Most of the low ceiling problems are just obscuration from the blowing snow, so those will improve as well. Unfortunately, the winds pick back up Saturday night, so expect another round of poor visibility and low ceilings in blowing snow Sunday. SPoRT NPP-VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics at 23/1827Z shows mainly clear skies or high clouds over the area. Winds will continue to be east at 15 to 30 mph diminishing this evening to 10 to 20 mph for most of the area. They increase again Saturday night to 15 to 30 mph. No significant change in temperatures through Sunday. West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying occluded front moving through the area will continue to weaken and pull north as it runs up against the ridging over Interior Alaska. Expect a few spitty snow showers along the front that may reduce visibility for a short time, but not expecting any accumulations. A shortwave is producing some showers that are moving north across St Lawrence Island and will bring some showers to the Bering Strait Coast tonight. A trailing low that is moving through the Bering Sea will bring showers to the Lower Yukon Delta and St lawrence Island Saturday during the day. The low stalls near St Matthew Island Saturday night, then spins a front over the Lower Yukon Delta Sunday spreading showers north to the Chukchi Sea, and into the Western Interior. Winds will continue to diminish this evening, then increase Saturday during the day on St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait Coast and adjacent areas. Not a lot of change in temperatures through the weekend. Inland locations can expect low in the single digits Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure will persist over the area with partly cloudy conditions prevailing. Expect strong diurnal temperature changes through the weekend as the area cools sharply at night under mostly clear skies and warms during the day with the partly cloudy conditions. Winds generally light, but Saturday night the Tanana Valley Jet will kick in around Delta Junction and winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph and gusty into Sunday evening. Winds around Nenana and over the flats south of Fairbanks will also be breezy Sunday with 10 to 20 mph winds. Also, gap winds in the Alaska Range kick in with the leeside trough developing, and will be gusting to around 45 mph Sunday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Still no faith in the extended solutions. Will primarily go with the WPC solutions which will be highly based on the ensemble mean. That being said, longwave trough will be moving to the West Coast, then inland, while a cutoff high will build over the Central Arctic and weak ridging will persist over the AlCan Border. That will keep most of the activity over the Western half of the state with generally fair weather in the Central and Eastern Interior, and over the Arctic Coast. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 201313 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 513 AM AKDT Tue Mar 20 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Pretty disappointed with the models overdoing everything with the system that moved through Monday. They are also changing significantly from run to run on what will happen with the next system that moves to the West Coast Wednesday and Thursday. Solutions do seem to have a handle on the high amplitude ridge building over the Bering Sea today and moving east over mainland Alaska the remainder of the week. The most notable change from yesterdays solutions is the lack of precipitation they are now bringing to the Seward Peninsula and the Western Brooks Range. Will use mainly the NAM solution for precipitation probability since the blend the last couple days was lacking with the last system. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A low developing over the Copper River Basin will dig southeast with a 522 dam closed center developing over Yakutat. Trough continue to lie east to west over the Arctic with a 515 dam low in the northern Chukchi Sea, and a 514 dam low 150 nm north of Kuparuk. Ridge is rotating northeast over the Central Bering Sea this morning and will move to have the axis lie over 170W tonight as the ridge continues to build north and a high over the Siberian Arctic merges with it near the Dateline and 80N. the ridge continues to build as the axis moves over 160W by Wednesday evening. The low over Yakutat moves south with the trough axis sliding east over the Yukon Territory. A ridge axis will develop on the western flank of the ridge extending from Norton Sound west over the Gulf of Anadyr Thursday morning, and will move to lie from Point Lay west over 70N by Thursday afternoon. As the ridge rotates the lows over the Arctic will merge as a 516 dam low 150 nm north of Demarcation Point this afternoon and will move northeast and dissipate as it moves over Banks Island. A ridge axis will develop over the Arctic behind the low and rotate around the ridge over the coast Wednesday afternoon, and move to lie over the Upper Yukon Flats and extend southeast across the Yukon Territory Thursday morning. A closed 551 dam high will develop over the Upper Kuskokwim River Valley Thursday afternoon and move over the Middle Koyukuk Valley by Friday morning as the ridge axis continues to rotate east. By Friday afternoon the closed high will be just north of Point Barrow at 546 dam. Several shortwaves will move up the western flank of the ridge spreading precipitation north over St Lawrence Island and the western Capes Thursday and Friday. A strong shortwave will develop over the Western Aleutians and move to lie from a 495 dam low near the Gulf of Anadyr to St Lawrence Island to the Pribilof Islands by Thursday evening. The shortwave will stretch out as it moves into the ridge and will lie from the Western Chukchi Sea to Bristol Bay by Friday morning. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm lies south of the forecast area, but as the ridge aloft moves over the state it will move north of the Lower Yukon Delta, and the Eastern Bering Sea, then work inland to lie from Point Hope to Kaltag to Kodiak City by Wednesday afternoon. As the ridge pushes warm air north on the western flank, it will also pull some cooler air south over the Central and Eastern Interior and Eastern Arctic Coast Wednesday. As the ridge continueseast the cooler air will be pushed east and warmer air will move over the remainder of the state with the zero isotherm making a cameo appearance over the central part of the state Thursday night and Friday. Surface...A trough of low pressure over the Arctic with a low near Point Lay, and another near Barter Island will move east and combine into a single 1033 mb low that will move east and dissipate of Banks Island Thursday. High pressure is building east over the Arctic Plains today and the pressure gradient will tighten up over the Eastern Arctic Coast this afternoon. An area of low pressure will persist over the southeastern half of the state as a 1019 mb low near Huslia will move east across the Middle Tanana Valley this morning and merge with a 1005 mb low near Yakutat this evening. High pressure associated with a 1045 mb center near Cold Bay will push north over southwest Alaska and the Bering Strait this afternoon and merge with high pressure that is pushing south from a 1042 mb center in the Siberian Arctic. As the high pressure merges, a 1041 mb center will develop over Selawik, and a 1040 mb center will develop over the Arctic Plains, tonight. By Thursday morning high pressure will extend southeast to the Eastern Arctic Coast, then southwest to Bristol Bay with a 1042 mb high over the Upper Yukon Flats. Leeside troughing starts developing Wednesday night north of the Brooks Range. By Thursday night the riding over the Arctic moves over the Beaufort Sea extending south over the Eastern Interior, then southwest to a 1019 mb high over Kodiak Island with a 1032 mb high near Old Crow YT. A weather front will move north to the Gulf of Anadyr and the Bering Strait tonight, then north across the Chukchi Sea Wednesday. Strong south flow develops over the West Coast and adjacent marine areas and will persist through Friday. A second weather front will move up the West Coast Thursday night and Friday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy with light snow or flurries today. Winds generally will be swinging around to west and northwest today as the trough pulls out to the east and high pressure builds over the Arctic Plains. Pressure gradient tightens up around Barter Island, so expect some blowing snow to develop and visibility to be reduced during the afternoon. Some clearing overnight as the high pressure builds over the area. SPoRT NPP- VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics shows quite a bit of stratus over the area, and the low circulation is well defined north of Kaktovik. West Coast and Western Interior...Things settling down this morning as decaying low over Norton Sound moves inland. Still expect some snow showers into the interior, mainly south of Huslia today. Snow showers tapering off late this evening with clearing. Temperatures falling tonight, but as high pressure moves inland and the ridge aloft moves over the interior warm air will surge north Wednesday over the coastal areas gradually working inland as the ridge moves east. Tight pressure gradient develops over the coastal areas with strong south flow. Winds increasing during the day Wednesday with potential gusts to 50 mph on St Lawrence Island and the southern Capes, gusts to 60 mph on the Bering Strait Coast, and the northern Capes, and gusts to 70 mph at Cape Lisburne Thursday morning. Winds start dimishing by late Thursday afternoon. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy with snow showers today into tonight before they taper off. Local accumulations up to 2 inches. West winds 5 to 15 mph today becoming northwest tonight. Clearing overnight tonight with temperatures falling and much cooler Wednesday and Wednesday night. Expect lows Thursday morning zero to 10 below for most of the area. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Not much faith in the models at this point in time, and there doesn't seem to be much reason to trust them at this time. That being said, will be leaning heavily on the WPC extended guidance which is based on the Ensembles. Expect high pressure over the northeastern corner of the state with warming over the southwest and periods of precipitation that may be mixed at times. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAR 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 282331 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 231 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...There has been very good agreement in the solutions over the past week or so, especially in the short term. Midrange there was some divergence, but that cleared up the last few days, most likely due to the building high amplitude ridge building and slowing everything down. Solution remain in good agreement, but expect that will change as the pattern becomes more active over the state as the ridge moves over the Yukon Territory by Friday night. Along the western fringe of the forecast are with will be active into the weekend and the 28/12Z solutions seem to have a good handle on things. Will generally use a blend since solutions are in good agreement, but leaning on the NAM for winds which bring in slightly stronger winds tonight and tomorrow over the West Coast. Will be using mostly the SREF for precipitation probability. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Low over the Beaufort Sea persists, but has weakened to 501 dam today. It will move southeast over over Observation Pt NWT by Thursday afternoon as it continues to fill to 511 dam. It will be quasi stationary into Friday, then move north over Banks Island and by Sunday morning it will be over the northeast Arctic at 502 dam. High amplitude ridge that has been building is over the Eastern Bering and Chukchi Seas extending northwest over Wrangel Island over the Siberian Arctic today. By Thursday afternoon the axis will lie from southern Kodiak Island to Ruby to Wainwright, and north, and by Friday afternoon it will lie from Cordova to Central to Flaxman Island and north. The ridge will be pinched off over the Central Arctic, and the southern portion will continue to rotate over the Yukon Territory by Saturday morning. A 494 dam low over the northwestern Bering Sea will move over Siberia, but the associated longwave trough will move east over the Dateline by Thursday afternoon, and lie from a 532 dam low 300 nm south of Sand Point, northwest over the Gulf of Anadyr by Friday afternoon. A shortwave will develop in advance of the longwave trough, and move to the Eastern Bering Sea coast by Thursday evening, then northeast over inner Norton Sound, and the southern Chukchi Sea early Friday morning, and to the western Brooks Range late Friday morning, and over the Arctic Friday evening as it helps cutoff the ridge. Longwave trough moves over the West Coast Friday night, and into the Interior Saturday. At 850 hpa...-20 isotherm has pushed south over the Eastern half of the state to lie from McCarthy to Denali to Allakaket to Wainwright, and will move east to lie over the AlCan Border by Thursday afternoon. The -10 Isotherm is over the Gulf of Alaska to Kodiak City to Emmonak then north of St Lawrence Island this afternoon, and by Thursday afternoon it will lie from Yakutat to Palmer to Denali to Wainwright. It will continue to slowly move east into Friday. The zero Isotherm will make a cameo appearance over the southwest Mainland and Lower Yukon Delta Thursday morning, but retreats to the south late Thursday evening. Surface...A broad area of high pressure over mainland Alaska extends north over the Central Arctic. The 1039 mb center will move into the interior tonight and will in the Upper Tanana Valley at 1047 mb by Thursday morning, and slides over the Yukon Territory by Thursday evening. A 1045 mb center will develop over the Upper Yukon Flats by Thursday morning and move east of Fort Yukon by Thursday evening. Weak high pressure will persist over the upper Yukon Flats through Saturday morning. A 960 mb low in the western Bering Sea will move north into Siberia Thursday as a weather front moves to the Eastern Bering Sea and Bering Strait Thursday morning, and over the West Coast and Chukchi Sea Friday morning as the low moves near Wrangel Island. Leeside troughing develops north of the Alaska and Brooks Range Thursday night with increased winds north of the ranges. A second weather front will move to the Central Bering Sea Friday morning, and the Southwest coast and Bering Strait Friday evening. A bubble high will develop in advance of the second front and move over the Interior Friday morning. High pressure over the Pacific will build north over the southern Bering Sea and rotate east over the Pribilof Islands Friday evening with high pressure extending northeast over the western interior and the Upper Yukon Flats. The low over Wrangel Island will move northeast into the Arctic and drag the leeside trough over the Arctic Coast into the offshore waters. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Weather system moving into the Chukchi Sea spreading clouds over the Northwest and Central Arctic tonight and eastern Arctic Thursday as the ridge aloft continues to move east. Strong winds moving to the Northwest coast overnight will increase from the south and gusting to around 65 mph west of Point Lay, so will issue a Blizzard Warning. Increasing clouds to the east and there is a big patch of stratus that shows up on the SPoRT NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics product at 28/2035Z that is over the western half of the Arctic Plains and Coast moving northeast, but will turn more to the north this evening. Expect the lower clouds to move into the Barrow and Nuiqsut areas, but stay west of Deadhorse at this time. Winds turning from southwest to southeast over the remainder of the area tonight and increasing to 10 to 20 mph, then increasing Thursday to 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures a few degrees warmer the next couple days. West Coast and Western Interior...Strong winds moving into the Eastern Bering Sea currently will continue east with the strongest winds moving to the northeast into the Chukchi Sea. Heavy precipitation with the front will move to St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait this evening, the Seward Peninsula and Chukchi Sea Coast Thursday. Heaviest snowfall will be on St Lawrence Island and the southern Seward Peninsula. Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the coastal areas. Strongest winds will be over St Lawrence Island through the Bering Strait and over the Northern Chukchi Sea Coast with winds gusting to at least 60 mph. Gusty winds will push inland to the Norton and Kotzebue Sound Coasts, but decrease east of the Nulato Hills. A surge of warmer air into the lower Yukon Delta tonight, but it cools pretty rapidly Thursday. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear and colder tonight and Thursday, then increasing clouds with warmer temperatures. Cloudy with some flurries or light snow Friday, but nothing significant. Winds generally light, but Tanana Valley Jet will kick up a Bit Friday around Delta Junction with gusts to around 35 mph. Gap winds kick in as well in the Alaska Range with gusts to 45 mph from the south. Looking into next week there will be another round of snow to start the week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Another wind event expected on Saturday night into Sunday around the Bering Strait, but expect winds to be less than 40 mph and even with diminished ice coverage do not expect any issues. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Solutions continue to show very good agreement in the short term, but as the high amplitude ridge breaks down and a more active pattern develops expect them to diverge quite a bit on strength and location of the major features, and the details will become very fuzzy. For now a blend of the Ensemble and latest solutions will provide a reasonable base to build on. With that said, the cycle looks to continue with a snowy period Sunday through Tuesday over most of the area with clearing later next week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory for AKZ213. Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235. && $$ SDB FEB 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 081341 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 441 AM AKST Thu Feb 8 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The main weather feature is a broad trough driving the active weather pattern across the Bering with several strong short waves within its flow evident on Water Vapor satellite imagery. A closed low center spinning within the trough is over Shemya early this morning. Abundant moisture is streaming up through the central and eastern Bering between this low and a ridge over mainland Alaska. At the surface, ridging remains dominant over the southern mainland returning colder than normal temperatures along with weak offshore flow. Gusty southerly flow is predominant across much of the Bering with a surface low crossing to the Bering over the central Aleutians. This system is re-enforcing a warm front across the eastern half of the Bering. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models continue in relatively good agreement with the synoptic pattern through the end of the work week. Changes were made to increase winds across the Bering as confidence increased for storm force marine winds as the pressure gradient tightens between the Bering low and ridge to its east. Blowing snow was also added along the Kuskokwim Delta coast as the frontal boundary shifts closer Thursday night into Friday. && .AVIATION... PANC...IFR to LIFR visibilities may briefly occur this morning as a steep inversion just of the surface is trapping low level moisture along the northern inlet. Patchy fog may redevelop tonight as low level moisture increases in a continued stable environment. Light winds persist through the TAF package with a dominant surface ridge over the central mainland. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The Suomi (polar orbiting satellite) VIIRS RGB Nighttime Microphysics imagery clearly shows some localized areas of fog/stratus along the Knik River Valley into Palmer, along Knik Arm, along the east end of Turnagain Arm (and nearby valleys including Girdwood), and portions of the Copper River Basin along the south to west side of the Wrangell Mountains. Otherwise, clear skies dominate Southcentral this morning under an offshore flow regime. An upper level short- wave which dropped southward across the eastern Copper Basin overnight led to an upswing in gap winds in Valdez/Thompson Pass as well as along the Copper River Delta into the northern Gulf. These winds will gradually diminish today as pressure and thermal gradients slacken. Aside from a continued threat for localized areas of fog and stratus, dry clear and seasonably cool conditions will continue into Friday. A strong frontal system taking shape out west will then approach Kodiak Island on Friday with rain and gale force winds spreading northward across the western Gulf. Precip will reach the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula Friday night, with clouds spreading northward across the rest of Southcentral. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA... Warm southerly flow will continue over southwest Alaska with ridging to the east and a longwave trough to the west. Late tonight a front will move in and will at first bring precip to areas along the coast and then will spread inland on Friday. However, the majority of the heaviest precip will stay along the coast. Precip looks to start as snow for most locations and transition to rain, with the exception of farther inland locations that will stay as snow. Winds will also increase throughout southwest Alaska as the front pushes in. Along the Kuskokwim Delta coast the initial onset of snow combined with winds will bring blowing snow conditions to the coastline Friday. Friday night both precip and winds will start to diminish and Saturday will continue to see improving conditions. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS... With the longwave trough extending over the western Bering, multiple systems look to track north into the central and eastern Bering through Saturday. These systems will bring warm air, rain and winds to the eastern Aleutians and Bering as they move through. Marine areas around eastern portions of the Alaska Peninsula look to see storm force winds Friday. Further west, temperatures will stay colder without the influence of the North Pacific systems bringing in warmer air from the south. This will result in light snow showers for locations around the Western Aleutians into the weekend. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... Saturday will be a day the pattern is shifting to a warmer one over Southcentral and Southwest Alaska due to an amplifying upper level ridge along the West coast of North America. The low in the Bering Sea will push into this ridge over the weekend and start a somewhat progressive upper level pattern over the state for next week. Models are struggling quite a bit with the progressive pattern, but in spite of the noise, it looks like we can get a reasonable idea as to where the longwaves will set up and those will be the basis for everything else. In general, the highly amplified ridge/trough pattern has been dampened a bit on the long term guidance which is to keep the forecast from fluctuating too far as some of the details become more clear. This will also keep a lot of 'chance of' POPs to remain in the long term forecast. Overall, next week will be much more mild with many locations experiencing temperatures above freezing. Precipitation type will be an issue with this situation, and the details will not come into focus until we get closer to these systems moving through the area. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Storm Warning 150 160 180. Gale Warning 130-132 136-138 155 165 171-173 179 181 185. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK LONG TERM...EZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 052248 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 148 PM AKST Mon Feb 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Short term solutions are in good agreement, and run to run has been very good. The extended periods area a much different story as they try to break down the blocking pattern that has been around for the past couple weeks and move into a more active/progressive pattern. 05/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the 05/18Z surface analysis with major features similar in location and strength. Dry pattern we have been stuck in will continue, at least in the interior through the week. Some snow on the west coast tomorrow seems to be handled well in the solutions, so will use a blend and lean on the SREF to provide appropriate probabilities. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Transition continues to more of an Omega Block pattern. Ridging extends from a high in the Eastern Pacific over the Gulf of Alaska to a 552 dam high over the Western Brooks Range and northwest over the New Siberian Islands. A 466 dam low sits north of Hudson Bay, and a 510 dam low is 300 nm south of the Kamchatka Peninsula. By Tuesday morning, not much change with the exception of a 523 dam low developing over the Pribilof Islands and moving north as ridge axis rotate around the high over the Western Brooks Range. By Wednesday morning the low will be over the Gulf of Anadyr with a shortwave extending southeast over Norton Sound and the high will be pushed east to the Central Brooks Range at 547 dam while the ridge axis will rotate over the Arctic. Ridging will build in over Bristol Bay behind the low. And by Thursday morning, ridging will remain over the state extending north from a 584 dam center off the California coast over Kodiak Island and northwest over Wrangel Island. A broad area of lower heights will persist over the Bering Sea, and a 489 dam low over the North Pole will move over the northeast Arctic by Friday morning as a 561 dam closed high develops over Southcentral Alaska. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm lies from Point Lay to Whitehorse YT today and will be pushed a bit east to lie from Point Barrow to Beaver Creek YT by Tuesday morning. By Wednesday morning it will lie from Demarcation Point along the crest of the Brooks Range to Ambler to Denali, then southeast as some warmer air is pulled north over the west coast around the ridge, and cold air is pulled into the interior out of Canada. Surface...Band of high pressure extends from British Columbia over the Eastern Interior and Northwest Arctic Coast to just north of the New Siberian Islands. Broad area of low pressure remains over the Bering Sea and North Pacific. And low pressure associated with a low near the North Pole is pushing south over the northeast Arctic as a 1010 mb low develops and moves near Banks Island tonight. High pressure over the Yukon Territory and Upper Tanana Valley will build to 1040 mb tonight as 1032 mb high moves to 200 nm north of Point Barrow. A 1001 mb low will move to Kodiak Island this evening, and into the northern Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday morning at 1006 mb, while a 991 mb low near Cold Bay this morning moves into the Eastern Bering Sea and will be 100 nm west of Nunivak Island by Tuesday morning. The low in the gulf will slowly move east to 150 nm south of Yakutat by Wednesday morning. The low in the Eastern Bering Sea will continue to move northwest and will dissipate in the Gulf of Anadyr Wednesday morning. A weather front associated with the low will move over the Lower Yukon Delta Tuesday morning and dissipate over the Chukchi Sea late Tuesday night. Leeside troughing will strengthen north of the Alaska Range today with Tanana Valley Jet winds developing and persisting into Thursday before diminishing. Leeside troughing north of the Brooks Range will develop Tuesday with a tight pressure gradient developing across the Eastern Brooks Range Wednesday. A 976 mb low in the north Pacific will move into the Bering Sea near the Dateline Wednesday, then move northwest to the northern Kamchatka Peninsula by Friday morning. Satellite...SPoRT NPP-VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 05/1928Z shows stratus over the Arctic Plain and the Arctic Coast between Prudhoe Bay and Kaktovik, elsewhere mostly clear conditions prevail. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, mainly over the Plains. As the ridge moves east not expecting the stratus to move much with the light flow in the area. Temperature warming a few degrees, but no significant warm up. Winds generally less than 15 mph with the ridge axis moving across the area, then winds picking up late Tuesday to around 20 mph on the coast as the leeside troughing develops, and to 25 mph and gusty in the Brooks Range passes. Winds in the passes will create some visibility and travel issues with blowing and drifting snow. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear continues, but increasing clouds tonight over the lower Yukon Delta, Middle Yukon Valley from Galena south, southern Seward Peninsula, and Bering Strait Coast. Expect snow to start in the lower Yukon Delta in the early morning hours and spread northwest to the Bering Strait Coast by afternoon. Snowfall amounts generally less than 2 inches. Front loses its punch over the mainland Tuesday evening, but snow will continue over the Bering Strait Wednesday, and moves over the Chukchi Sea Coast Wednesday evening. Pressure gradient across the area tightens up and winds increase today and tonight with gusts to around 40 mph in the lower Yukon Delta, southern Norton Sound, and the Bering Strait then increase Tuesday in Kotzebue Sound. Blowing snow in the areas that receive fresh snow will reduce visibility to less than one half mile at times. Temperatures warming. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions will continue. Winds in some higher elevation areas will increase from the east, and the Tanana Valley Jet will develop as the leeside trough sets in north of the Alaska Range with winds around Delta Junction increasing to 25 mph and gusting to 45 mph. Winds around Fairbanks will continue to be light and generally from northeast. Winds in the Upper Chena River Valley are expected to increase to around 20 mph Tuesday and that may be enough to produce some mixing winds in the North Pole and Ft Wainwright areas which would produce some warmer temperatures in those areas, but the wind direction may not be optimal for that to happen, so for now expect temperatures a couple degrees warmer Tuesday, then cooling a few degrees the remainder of the week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Extended solutions are confused as they try to break down the blocking pattern that has been over the area and transition to a more active pattern. For the extended periods will most likely lean on the Ensemble solutions since they are less volatile to changes from run to run. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230. && $$ SDB FEB 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 011241 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 341 AM AKST Thu Feb 1 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Very good run to run continuity continues with the 01/00Z solutions, and there continues to be good agreement in the extended periods. Big picture pattern continues to transition from an Omega block to a Rex block by Friday morning. 01/00Z surface solutions matched up well against the 01/06Z surface analysis with only minor differences with the major features. Dry pattern continues over most of the forecast area, and that lends itself to a blend of the solutions, with the exception of temperatures which are messy, but winds aloft have settled down a bit and are not mixing to the surface, so models are handling them better today. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Transition to Rex block continues and will be in place tonight. The 570 dam over Chukotka will move to 100 nm south of Wrangel Island by Friday morning as ridge that extends over the Chukchi Sea to Dawson YT rotates to lie from the center over the Seward Peninsula to Lake Illiamna. A second ridge axis will extend northeast across the Arctic. The center will remain quasi stationary into Saturday as the the axis continue to rotate around with the ridge over the Arctic moving over the Arctic Coast in the evening, and lying from Point Hope to Dawson YT by Saturday morning. A 522 dam low 150 nm south of Sand Point continues to back to the southwest and will merge with a 515 dam low over the North Pacific that will continue to move south. Troughing lies from south of the Aleutians over the Gulf of Alaska and Yakutat and the southern Yukon Territory and will slowly move north over the southern mainland and the southern Bering Sea by Friday evening and will persist in the area. The 557 dam center in the Western Chukchi Sea will slowly move east starting Sunday and will be over Point Hope by Monday morning at 555 dam. Meanwhile ridging over the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska will persist as a couple weak short waves move through the area and into British Columbia. At 850 hpa...Temperatures over most of the forecast area will rise about 10C by Saturday morning as a pool of warm air associated with the ridge to west pushes east. As the ridge continue to rotate around, cold air will start pushing back into the state from the northeast, and the -10C isotherm will move to lie from Point Lay to Beaver Creek by Monday morning. Surface...Broad area of low pressure remains south of the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutians. A 1022 mb low is 250 nm north of Demarcation Point this morning and will move southeast and merge with a low over the Canadian Archipelago by this evening. The associated weather front will move over the Eastern Arctic Coast this evening, then drag east as it dissipates. As the low moves closer to the coast the pressure gradient will be pinched over the Eastern Arctic Coast from Kuparuk east with gusty winds developing. A ridge of high pressure extends from as 1042 mb high over northern Chukotka across the Northwest Arctic Coast and Central Brooks Range to a 1043 mb high over the Upper Tanana and Yukon Valleys in the Yukon Territory. The ridging will persist as the high over the Upper Tanana Valley builds to 1050 mb and leeside troughing north of the Alaska range deepens. A tight pressure gradient will develop across the Tanana Valley between Tok and Nenana with the Tanana Valley Jet kicking in Saturday night. The jet will weaken Sunday night, but persist through Tuesday. Satellite...SPoRT NPP VIIRS Nighttime Microphysics RGB at 01/1046Z shows stratus primarily over the Arctic east of Point Barrow, over the Eastern Brooks Range, and a band associated with the upper level shortwave moving over the ridge that extends southwest over the Middle Yukon River Valley north of Galena. As the shortwave moves east the stratus should stay north of Fairbanks. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Low stratus ceilings and some flurries and patchy fog as onshore flow continues. Low moving south of the eastern Arctic will drag a front to the Eastern Arctic Coast today, then drag it east tonight. Some light snow mainly east of Prudhoe Bay as the low moves to the area, otherwise mainly flurries along the coast east of Point Barrow. Winds generally less than 15 mph, except east of Prudhoe Bay where winds will increase to around 25 mph and gusty with the approach of the low creating some blowing snow problems so will maintain the current Winter Weather Advisory for the area. As the ridge moves over the Northwest Arctic Coast tonight expect onshore flow east of Point Barrow, and offshore flow to the west with winds generally less than 15 mph. Temperatures warming. West Coast and Western Interior...Pretty quiet. Generally light winds today with northeast winds increasing over St Lawrence Island and the Lower yukon Delta later today to 20 to 30 mph as the low pressure south of the Aleutians slides north and pinches the gradient across the area. A few clouds are sneaking south of the Brooks Range over the Western Interior, but they will dissipate this afternoon. Temperatures generally warming. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions will continue, but a few clouds will sneak south over the northern interior later today as the low in the Arctic moves north of MacKenzie Bay into Canada. Winds have diminished in the hills and are not mixing to the valley floor today so cooler temperatures will prevail. Tanana Valley Jet will be developing Friday night into Saturday with winds gusting to 45 mph around Delta Junction and to 25 mph around Nenana. Temperatures will slowly warm through the weekend. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Similar solution for the extended periods as the ridging rotates around and builds southeast to northwest over mainland Alaska early next week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 301236 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 336 AM AKST Tue Jan 30 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...30/00Z solutions showing good run to run continuity and they remain in good agreement into the mid term, and with the Omega blocking pattern transitioning to a Rex blocking pattern, I expect the solutions to continue to be in good agreement until we move into a more progressive pattern. 30/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 30/06Z surface analysis with no significant differences noted. Very dry across the forecast area the next several days, so will use a simple blend to handle the precipitation that is expected. Temperatures will be the primary challenge with the stratus creating the issues. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Omega blocking pattern continues the transition to a Rex block as the 568 dam low 300 nm west of St Matthew Island with ridging extending north over the Dateline moves over Chukotka Wednesday. The Center moves to Wrangel Island by Friday morning at 565 dam. A ridge axis will rotate over the Arctic Wednesday then move south, then southwest over mainland Alaska Wednesday night to be over the Eastern Bering Sea by Friday morning. A second axis will rotate over the Arctic to be over the Arctic Coast by Friday morning. A shortwave will develop over the Siberian Arctic and move to the Dateline tonight, then rotate around the ridge to be over the Eastern Arctic Coast late Wednesday evening, then dissipate as it moves south over the Eastern Interior. A 516 dam low has backed out of the Yukon Territory over the Copper River Basin this morning and will continue to back to the southwest to be over Kodiak Island tonight, then 200 nm south of Dutch Harbor by Thursday morning with weak troughing extending northeast over Yakutat. The troughing will move north over South Central Alaska by Friday morning. At 850 hpa...Temperatures fairly steady today, then cooling a degree or two Wednesday before a slow warming trend starts Thursday, with a significant warm up Friday night through the weekend. Surface...A 968 mb low that was well south of the Gulf of Alaska has moved northeast over the southern Panhandle and will move inland and dissipate. A 1000 mb low will develop 200 nm southeast of Kodiak City this morning and slowly move southwest and dissipate Wednesday evening. A 1028 mb low that was over the Central Arctic yesterday has moved to MacKenzie Bay and will continue to move southeast into the Northwest Territories and dissipate. 1035 mb high west of St Matthew Island will move north and merge with high pressure over Chukotka. A 1040 mb high dropping south out of the high Arctic will move to 200 nm northwest of Wainwright at 1043 mb this afternoon, with ridging building over the Arctic Plains and a 1040 mb center developing over the Kavik River. High pressure over the Arctic Plains will continue to build with a 1048 mb center over the Kavik River by Wednesday morning and high pressure extending northeast over the Arctic. A 1019 mb low will move to 80N 180 tonight, then dive southeast across the Arctic to be 150 nm north of Kuparuk by Thursday morning with the associated cold front moving to the Brooks Range. The low will continue into the Northwest Territories and dissipate as it drags the front east. Satellite...SPoRT NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 30/1124Z shows a band of stratus that extends from Healy north to the Brooks Range, and stratus over most of the Arctic Plains and Coast and Arctic to 75N. Stratus over the interior appears to be moving slowly west and falling apart, but it is masked to some extent by higher clouds so it is difficult to tell. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Pretty quiet with low stratus ceilings and some flurries and patchy fog. Winds generally less than 15 mph, but they may kick up and be gusty to 25 mph in the Brooks Range passes at times. Slightly cooler today and tonight, then warming. West Coast and Western Interior...Quiet out here as well with low stratus ceiling and light snow or flurries along the north facing coastal areas the biggest issue. Winds generally less than 15 mph, the exception being the Bering Strait and St lawrence Island where winds to 25 mph can be expected today, then lighter winds Wednesday. Temperatures steady before starting to warm later in the week. Central and Eastern Interior...Some higher stratus moving in from the northeast will continue, and some low level stratus from the power plants through the day. Expect some industrial flurries around the power plants in town, with flurries associated with the higher as well. No significant accumulations are expected. Clouds may break up at times today depending on how the low and mid level flow changes through the day. Temperatures will be a bit colder as we see some clearing tonight and Wednesday. Winds will continue to be light and generally from the northeast. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Models continue to show similarity in the extended periods with the ridging eventually rotating back around and building southeast to northwest over mainland Alaska early next week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 191303 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 403 AM AKST Fri Jan 19 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There are 2 main features across Alaska today. The first is a decaying low over the Gulf of Alaska which continues to produce showers that are detectable on the Middleton Island radar. A another low south of the aforementioned low continues to push eastward along 50N which will not directly impact South Central but it will interact with the remnants of the low just outside Prince William Sound. The other primary feature is a strengthening surface high near the Gulf of Anadyr. This surface high has been over Siberia will continue to migrate towards the Central Bering. Anomalously cold air is trapped in this feature and this will have a major impact on the region as the forecast period unfolds. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... There is good model consensus with the synoptic features and good run to run continuity. That said, there are a few areas of uncertainty regarding timing of fog dissipation and pinpointing the temperatures as we head into a much cooler pattern. && .AVIATION... PANC...Fog has moved down Knik Arm and has reduced visibility and cigs. The latest VIIRS image has a large area of stratus spanning from Knik Arm and down Cook Inlet which is camouflaging the fog. Looking at the models, the MOS guidance is anticipating overcast conditions at PANC for the next 24 hrs with the fog ebbing and flowing around the airport. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Though there is an upper low currently parked over Southcentral Alaska, shallow inversions and low level moisture have given rise to areas of fog from Cook Inlet/Western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl, to over the Matanuska Valley (especially Knik Arm). Stratus and fog are more widespread across the Copper River Basin. Except for the Copper River Basin, where the low conditions are expected to linger into Saturday, the other aforementioned areas should see a lessening of these conditions tonight with a little more mixing. That said, there may be some patchy fog which redevelops/holds overnight through the Knik Valley. Pressure and temperature gradients will increase across Southcentral tonight as cold air butts up against the interior side of Alaska Range and Copper River Basin and flows through gaps. Other than along the range, a noticeable increase in outflow winds will be evident across the northern and Western Gulf, including the eastern Kenai peninsula overnight which should continue through Saturday night. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA... With high pressure settling in over the Bering, dry, northerly winds will dominate southwest Alaska through the weekend. This setup will pull down Arctic air over the area dropping temperatures to around -30 F for interior locations Saturday and Sunday night. Winds look to be relatively light over the weekend for low lying areas, but if they do pickup wind chills could become a concern. However, there remains uncertainty with how strong the winds will get. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS... High pressure will dominate the Bering through the weekend with the eastern side pulling down cold air over the eastern Bering and Aleutians. These winds look to be around small craft strength which will be enough combined with the cold air to bring freezing spray to much of the eastern Bering. Out west, a North Pacific system will approach the western Aleutians tonight but will be stalled by the Bering high. This will keep its front and any precip associated with it over the central and western Aleutians. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... The long term begins Sunday night and Monday with a high amplitude upper high over the Bering Sea and a trough to the east, which includes a closed low in the Gulf of Alaska and another over northern Alaska. There is weak ridging in between the two lows over Southcentral. Strong northerly flow will be over the Alaska west coast and Alaska Peninsula. During the first half of next week the Gulf low will slide east, and the Bering high will weaken. This will allow the north Alaska low to dive southward, reaching southern Alaska around the middle of next week. The exact path and timing of this southward traversing low is not agreed upon exactly by the models, but agreement is good enough for a fairly high confidence forecast for this time range. The end result of all of this is a fairly cold regime with temperatures below normal over mainland southern Alaska. Some precipitation is possible through the period for the Gulf coastal areas. There is a chance some precipitation could get further inland, depending on how the Gulf low behaves, but confidence in this is low. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale 411 150 177 178 180 130. Heavy Freezing Spray 160 180 181 185. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK LONG TERM...BL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 152356 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 256 PM AKST Mon Jan 15 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Short term continues to be in very good agreement, and run to run has be very consistent. Extended periods are another problem all together. There is little agreement in the extended solutions. Surface analysis at 15/18Z was very similar to the 15/12Z solutions. Will be using the SREF for precipitation again today to give the areas with precipitation the higher probabilities that it generates. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Strong south flow continues over the state tonight, but will turn from the southeast as the ridging to the east pushes west over the state tonight, then moves north with the ridge axis lying over the Eastern Brooks Range, then southwest over Kuskokwim Bay by Tuesday afternoon. The ridge will continue to swing north Wednesday, and by afternoon it will lie over the Central Arctic, then southwest over the Chukchi Sea. Troughing lies to the west and north of the ridge with a 507 dam low over the Chukotsk Peninsula that will weaken and merge with a 497 dam low over the Sea of Okhotsk. A 511 dam low in the NE Pacific will move northwest over Kodiak Island by Tuesday afternoon at 513 dam, then over Bristol Bay at 518 dam Wednesday morning. A 518 dam low will develop over the Western Interior Wednesday morning and move over the Northwest Arctic Coast by Thursday morning at 515 dam. At 850 hpa...Temperatures around zero lingering over the AlCan border, and even sneaking into the Central Interior tonight will spread southwest with the zero isotherm lying from Barter island to McGrath Tuesday afternoon with most areas to the southeast of it above zero. Patches of above zero temperatures will linger over the interior and slowly cool through Thursday morning. On the West coast the -10 isotherm is just offshore and will move over the West Coast Wednesday night as the cooling trend over the state continues. Surface...Weak high pressure over the state with a 1003 mb center over the Central Interior that will slowly move northeast to be over Arctic Village Tuesday morning at 1010 mb, then merges with the ridging over the Eastern Arctic that extends south from a 1030 mb high over the North Pole. A 982 mb low in the Bering Strait that will move to Wrangel Island by Tue afternoon, then NW into the Siberia Arctic. Weak troughing remains over the Arctic Coast and nearshore waters, while a 998 mb low in MacKenzie Bay will move E and dissipate in Canada. A 978 mb low in the Northeast Pacific will move to Kodiak Island by Tue evening, then over the Western Interior to the Northwest Arctic Coast Wed evening at 993 mb. A 1004 mb high will develop over the Yukon Territory Thursday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some lower clouds over the Northwest Coast associated with the low that will be moving to Wrangel Island. No signs of low status over the Eastern Arctic Coast looking at the NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 15/2101Z. Winds generally less than 10 mph for a change. Temperatures may warm a bit overnight, then cooling through the weekend. Some light snow moving to the Brooks Range Tuesday evening and over the Coast by Wednesday morning. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly cloudy across the area with some flurries or light snow and a slight chance of freezing drizzle in the Western Interior tonight. High pressure moving over the nearshore waters will bring some clearing late Wednesday as the low moves north. Winds continue to diminish tonight, and most coastal areas will have winds less than 15 mph by morning. Inland winds will remain light and variable. Temperatures will slowly cool. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy. A flurry possible around the Interior, with some light snow in the Upper Tanana Valley. There will be a slight chance of Freezing Drizzle again tonight as a patch of warm air moves into the interior with the next front. Winds gusty in the Alaska Range, but generally less than 40 mph. The remainder of the area will have light and variable winds. Temperatures will continue on the warm side through Thursday, then cooling through the weekend. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models continue to diverge with little agreement over our forecast area. We can expect temperatures will be falling, with no significant snow. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 142237 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 137 PM AKST Sun Jan 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Very good agreement in the short term on major features. Shortwaves continue to move north in the flow, and are difficult to differentiate, so timing of them is nearly impossible. 14/12Z Solutions initialized well against the 14/18Z surface analysis. Will use the SREF for precipitation again today as it seems to have a better handle on things. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Strong south flow continues over the state with a high amplitude ridge extending from the Pacific Northwest over Banks Island, then West over 78N 155W, then southwest over Wrangel Island. A 500 dam low lies to the west over Nunivak Island with troughing extending northwest to a 522 dam low 200 nm northeast of Point Barrow. The low over Nunivak Island will move over St Lawrence Island tonight, and over the Chukotsk Peninsula Monday evening at 507 dam as the trough moves to lie from the Chukotka northeast over the Arctic. As the low moves northwest, ridging will build back to the west Tuesday with a ridge axis lying from Old Crow YT to Kuskokwim Bay, then over the Arctic Coast to Pint Barrow then southwest over Nunivak Island by Wednesday morning. A 511 dam low will move to the Gulf of Alaska by Tuesday morning with a strong shortwave lying from Kodiak Island to Dawson, and moving to lie from Chignik to Arctic Village by Wednesday morning with another shortwave following about 8 hours behind it. At 850 hpa...Short term, temperatures will slowly cool through Monday evening, then warm slightly as the shortwave aloft moves northwest into the state. Surface...High pressure persists to the east with a 1049 mb high over Saskatchewan Canada and ridging extending west into the Upper Porcupine Basin and Upper Yukon Flats, and the Copper River Basin. Low pressure remains to the west with a stacked 561 mb low moving to Nunivak Island this afternoon, and over St Lawrence Island by Monday morning, and moves to Wrangel Island by Tuesday afternoon at 996 mb. Troughing remains over the Arctic Plain and Coast with a 991 mb low over Point Barrow. The low over Point Barrow will move northeast into the Arctic and dissipate by Monday afternoon, but weak trough will remain over the Coast and Plains. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges will weaken overnight. A 1005 mb bubble high will develop over the Upper Yukon Flats Monday and dissipate Tuesday. A 978 mb low will move north into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday, and over Kodiak Island by Wednesday morning. A weather front will move northwest into the Interior Tuesday evening and to the Brooks Range by Wednesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Remains pretty quiet by January standards. Increasing clouds, with some stratus moving into the area. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 14/1941Z is showing some stratus around Prudhoe Bay and over the Northwest Coast south of Point Lay. Expect move stratus to develop across the area as the winds swing around to southeast to south tonight. Strong pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range will relax tonight and gusty gap winds will diminish. Temperatures warming slightly. West Coast and Western Interior...Continues to be messy out west as the low moves from Nunivak Island to St Lawrence Island tonight. Snow north to the Seward Peninsula with some flurries north of that. Continues to be a slight chance of Freezing Rain from Nome south, but not expecting accumulating amounts. Winds remain strong and gusty south of the Seward Peninsula with gusts to 50 mph possible tonight. Temperatures slightly cooler. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy. A flurry possible around the Interior, with some light snow in the Upper Tanana Valley. Gusty gap winds in the Eastern Alaska Range to 50 mph overnight and Monday. Temperatures warmer. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are not much help with the latest solutions diverging. After a warming trend through mid week temperatures will be falling, with no significant snow. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ226. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 132243 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 143 PM AKST Sat Jan 13 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Excellent agreement in the short term on major feature location and strength. Shortwaves moving through the flow are a bit of a struggle as far as timing, but overall not too bad. 13/12Z Solutions initialized well against the 13/18Z surface analysis for position and strength. Some of the solutions are attempting to bring some precipitation into the Middle Tanana Valley with the strong downslope, so will use the SREF since it is handling the situation better, for the remainder of the elements will use a blend based on the current database. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over British Columbia extends north to a 542 dam high over the Beaufort Sea. As the ridge slides east, the closed center over the Beaufort Sea will move south and merge into the ridge. A 491 dam low south of Sand Point will continue to move northwest to be over Bristol Bay by Sunday morning. Several shortwaves will move north in the flow over the interior with the first moving over the Alaska Range this evening, and over the interior by Sunday morning. The low will move over Nunivak Island by Sunday afternoon at 499 dam with the strong southerly flow continuing over the interior. Expect several more shortwaves to move north to the Arctic, but not able to pick them out individually to time them moving across. Ridging will remain to the east as the low move over Chukotka and weakens through Monday. A strong shortwave will move north over the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday, and the Interior on Wednesday. At 850 hpa...Temperatures warming significantly across the area as strong south flow aloft pushes warmer air north. -10 isotherm has mostly moved out of the state and temperature range from +2C over the Lower Yukon Delta to around d -10 along the AlCan Border. Temperatures warm slightly as the south flow continues, but most of the area will be between 0C and -7C, with some patchy areas slightly above 0C. Surface...High pressure will persist to the east with a 1042 mb high over the Northwest Territories. A broad area of low pressure covers most of the Bering Sea and mainland Alaska with a stacked 950 mb low over Sand Point that will move northwest to Nunivak Island by Sunday afternoon at 965 mb. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges will persist with strong pressure gradient across the Ranges and down the Tanana Valley. The low will continue northwest to St Lawrence Island at 973 mb Monday morning, and moves north across the Chukchi Sea Monday night. Bubble highs will develop over the Upper Porcupine Basin, and the Upper Tanana Valley tonight and persist through Monday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Pretty quiet considering. Mostly clear, but increasing high clouds tonight. Strong gusty winds in Coastal areas, and strong gap winds in the Eastern Brooks Range as the trough continues to develop over the Plains. The trough will move offshore tonight, and winds will diminish in the Coastal areas. Winds in the Eastern Brooks Range will persist into Sunday evening before diminishing. Temperatures warming 5 to 10 degrees. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 13/1959Z looks mostly clear with the exception of some high clouds west of Point Barrow. West Coast and Western Interior...Going to be a bit messy out west as the low moves through the area, and warm air surges over the southwest mainland and Lower Yukon Delta, and even the Southern Seward Peninsula. Expect so some moving into the area tonight, then at least a chance of Freezing Rain as far north as the Southern Seward Peninsula. Strong northeast to southeast winds for the coastal areas with lighter winds inland. Snowfall amounts over the next couple days will be in the 2 to 4 inch range. Not currently expecting significant ice accumulation, but will need to watch has the system progresses. Temperatures warmer. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy, but not expecting much precipitation south of Livengood. Chinook winds through the Alaska Range gusting to 65 mph tonight, and Tanana Valley Jet winds around Delta Junction gusting to 65 mph. Temperatures warmer. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are in fairly good agreement for areas north of the Alaska Range with ridging over the Arctic and Siberia, and a closed low developing over the northern Yukon Territory and moving north over MacKenzie Bay Thursday afternoon and stalling before moving northeast and dissipating Sunday. A trough will remain over the west coast with scattered showers, while a easterly wave will move northwest across the interior Wednesday, and the Arctic Thursday. Another round of strong winds in the Eastern Alaska Range and Delta Junction area Wednesday night. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226- AKZ227. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214- AKZ215. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Gale Warning for PKZ245. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 101315 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 415 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement in the short term. 10/00Z Solutions initialized well at the surface, with only minor differences when compared to the 10/06Z surface analysis. Will blend with the current database for most elements, making minor adjustments in the near term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...538 dam high 150 east of Wrangel Island this morning and will slowly rotate northeast to 300 nm northwest of Point Barrow by Thursday morning, and 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Friday morning. 522 dam low has moved over the Eastern Brooks Range and will move over Tanana by Thursday morning at 518 dam, then west over the Gulf of Anadyr by Friday morning at 512 dam. A trough will persist over the Brooks Range. Ridging will persist over the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. A 511 dam low 150 nm west of St Matthew Island with a shortwave extending east to Cape Romanzof will move northwest into Siberia and dissipate. A 502 dam low in the central Bering Sea will merge with a 495 dam low that will move south of the central Aleutians by Thursday morning and merge with a developing 495 dam low that will be 150 nm south of Nikolski. At 850 hpa...Temperatures relatively flat the next couple days, with only some weak warming in the Upper Yukon Flats, Fortymile Country, and along the AlCan border. Surface...Broad area of low pressure remains over the Bering Sea and the southwest mainland. 1038 mb high remains over the Yukon Territory with ridging extending north over the eastern Beaufort Sea and west along 75N in the Arctic, west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, and west over the Copper River Basin with a 1023 mb high near Glennallen. Ridging over Canada will weaken the next couple days as the low pressure over the Bering Sea pushes north as a 958 mb low moves to 150 nm south of Nikolski Thursday morning, and 300 nm south of Kodiak Island by Friday morning. A 1023 mb high will develop over the Central Arctic Thursday morning, and move to the northeast Arctic by Friday morning at 1028 mb. Trough over the Arctic Coast this morning will persist into Saturday. Tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range will weak this morning as ridging to the south weakens, then tighten back up Friday night with gusty gap winds returning. Tanana Valley Jet will weaken a bit today as the leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range weakens a bit today, then strengthen Thursday night with the gradient tightening back up. Gradient also remains relatively tight over the highlands to the north and east of Fairbanks. Tight pressure gradient over the Nulato Hills will persist. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Still getting some gusty winds in the Eastern Brooks Range this morning as the GOES IR at 10/1145Z indicates, but they will be diminishing this morning. High moving to the northeast Arctic Friday will start pinching the trough over the area, and strong winds will develop on the Eastern Arctic Coast, with strong gap wind developing in the Eastern Brooks Range as the high pressure over the south slopes strengthens. Expect some blowing snow issues east of Nuiqsut, and in the eastern Brooks Range, when the winds do kick up. Mostly clear over most of the area today, but NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 10/1159Z shows stratus around a low level circulation north of Barrow that extends from Nuiqsut to Point Lay and northwest over the Arctic. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 10/1130Z indicates MVFR clouds over the same area, and observations have the stratus as low as 300 ft. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly Clear, some gusty winds to 40 mph, mainly in the Nulato Hills, channeled areas, and downslope off the Central Brooks Range north of Ambler. Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear with some high clouds mainly east of Fairbanks moving south across the area today. A upper level low over the Brooks Range will move west over the Yukon River Basin, and this may help develops some clouds north of Fairbanks. Winds continue to be strong over the higher terrain, but will settle down some today, so expect some cooler daytime temperatures with the lighter winds. The winds in the hills will increase tonight with gusts around 40 mph expected over the Ray and White Mountains, and the Upper Chena and Upper Salcha Basins. The Tanana Valley Jet will settle down today as well, then come back stronger Thursday through Saturday with gusts around 50 mph. Cold air over the area will start retreating back into Canada, but with the winds diminishing today, expect as cold or colder temperatures today and tonight for most areas. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Flow becoming southwest over the area and that will allow the ridging over Canada to build back in to the interior. No precipitation expected. Cooler temperatures in the Eastern Interior, and gusty winds returning to the uplands and Upper Tanana Valley. A blend of the solutions is likely the best place to start. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ223. Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ223. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 081244 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 344 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement in the short term continues in the 08/00Z set of solutions. Each new set of solutions strengthens the 500 hpa low dropping south over the Eastern Arctic Coast Wednesday morning, they also continue to change what will happen with the low as it moves over the interior. Surface solutions continue to initialize well, and there were only minor differences when compared to the 08/12Z surface analysis. Limited precipitation again today, so will use the SREF solution for the short term. Temperatures continue to be difficult, models not handling the cold air advection and low sun angle which is producing cooling or flat diurnal trends, so will use the current database making minor adjustments based on current temperatures, then an almost straight interpolation for the trend. Aloft...At 500 hpa...High has moved over Point Barrow at 540 dam with axis extending north over the high Arctic, south over Cook Inlet, and west over the Bering Strait and northern Bering Sea Coast. The low that was over the northern Bering Sea yesterday has moved over Siberia and filled and the trough has move over the Siberian Coast and Western Chukchi Sea Coast. A 527 dam low lies just west of Kodiak City, and a 495 dam low has moved out of the North Pacific to Amchitka. A trough over the Beaufort Sea last night has moved over the Southern Yukon Territory and is digging southwest over Yakutat and will dig west across the northern Gulf of Alaska today and tonight. The high over Point Barrow will slide south, then move northwest over the Chukchi Sea with ridging extending south over Kaltag, then southeast over Cordova. The trough that was over the Siberian coast will ride up and over the ridge today and tonight to be over the Central Arctic by Tuesday morning, and continues to rotate over the ridge to be over the Eastern Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning with a 522 dam closed low forming and moving over the Eastern Brooks Range. The low will then back to the west over the interior through Thursday night, and will be over the Gulf of Anadyr Friday morning. The low over Amchitka will move east to Atka as it weakens to 510 dam by Wednesday morning, then moves west and merges with a low moving out of the northwest Pacific. At 850 hpa...Cooling trend continues across the forecast area. The -10 isotherm lies from Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Huslia to Cantwell to Yakutat this morning, and will lie from Point Hope to Minchumina to Whittier by Tuesday morning. The -20 isotherm lies from Kaktovik to Chandalar Lake to Fort Yukon to Beaver Creek YT and will push to the west a bit today, then start pulling back into Canada tonight. Surface...High pressure continues to build south and west over the state from a 1042 mb high 400 nm north of Kaktovik. By Tuesday morning the high moves over the Central Beaufort Sea at 1038 mb, then moves southeast over the Northwest Territories by Wednesday morning at 1036 mb. A 949 mb low near Amchitka will move slowly east to Atka by Tuesday afternoon as it weakens to 976 mb. A 1024 mb center will develop over the Upper Porcupine Basin with riding pushing west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, while leeside troughing will build east over the Arctic Plain and Coast creating a tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range. The troughing over the plains will also enhance the gradient over the Eastern Arctic Coast from this morning through this evening. With the high over the Upper Porcupine, a tight pressure gradient will also develop over the uplands north of Fairbanks from the Ray to the White Mountains, and southeast over the Upper Chena and Salcha Basins as the leeside trough north of the Alaska Range enhances a bit later today. As the low near the Aleutians slides east the pressure gradient over the Nulato Hills will also tighten up a bit and persist through the remainder of the week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ground Blizzard conditions continue from Point Lay to Wainwright, but conditions will be improving later today as the winds diminish. On the Eastern Arctic Coast blowing snow has developed and conditions will deteriorate through the day as the winds increase to 25 to 40 mph, so Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Coast From Nuiqsut east. Winds will diminish tonight as the trough moves over the coast and the gradient moves offshore. Gusty gap winds from Anaktuvuk Pass east, developing in the afternoon, in the Brooks Range to 40 mph will produce local blowing snow that will create poor visibility at times. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/0957Z only cover the Beaufort Sea and there is no stratus showing up. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z indicates some MVFR clouds over Chukchi Sea, but offshore. Temperatures slightly warmer on the northwest coast, and cooler on the Eastern Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Stratus over the west coast from Point Hope to the Lower Yukon Delta shows up pretty good on the GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z, and the NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/10?????Z. As the ridge continues to build south and west the stratus is moving west and will be pushed offshore by this afternoon with clearing skies across the area. Still a few flurries with the stratus, but nothing significant. Combination of low moving to the Central Aleutians and the high building south and west the pressure gradient over the area tightens up and winds increase over most of the area. Strongest winds will be over the Nulato Hills and Western Norton Sound with some gusts near 50 mph. Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear across the area, and the stratus over the southeast interior will be clearing later this morning. Some gusty winds in the uplands to the north from the Ray Mountains southeast to the Upper Salcha Basin with winds gusting to around 30 mph at times. Locally some blowing snow can be expected above treeline and may impact visibility on 12 miles and Eagle Summits, and Ptarmigan Pass along the highways. Temperatures continue to fall as cold air filters in from the east, and the coldest temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday morning as they fall to -30 to -40. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are in better agreement. A blend of the current solutions with the ensemble mean should provide a good start. Chinook event starting late Friday will bring warmer temperatures to the Interior for the weekend, and strong gusty winds to the Alaska Range. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ201. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 071224 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 324 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Pretty good agreement all the way around with 07/00Z solutions, evening into the extended periods over the Arctic. Surface solutions initialized well against the 07/12Z surface analysis. With limited precipitation will use the SREF for the short term. Temperatures have been a real battle the last few days, but models are in much better agreement, so will use a blend and make some minor adjustments based on current conditions. Aloft...At 500 hpa...537 dam high has moved to just north of Point Lay this morning with the ridge axis extending northwest across the Arctic and southeast over Yakutat. By Monday morning the center will be over Point Barrow at 540 dam with the axis extending north over the high Arctic, and south over Kodiak City. A 495 dam low that was over the central Bering Sea yesterday has filled but a trough lies from west of the Gulf of Anadyr southeast over Sand Point this morning, and there is a 528 dam low over Kodiak City. The low over Kodiak City will move over the Central Gulf of Alaska at 528 dam by Monday morning, then merge with a trough that is moving south over the Yukon Territory and starts digging southwest over Yakutat Monday evening. The trough over the Bering Sea will move north up the western flank of the ridge to lie over the Siberian Coast and Western Chukchi Sea Coast by Monday morning. Monday the high over Point Barrow will slide south, then move northwest over the Chukchi Sea while the trough over the Yukon Territory digs over the Western Gulf of Alaska with a 516 dam low developing over Yakutat, and over the North Pacific a 495 dam low will move Over Amchitka then move east over the Aleutians to Atka by Tuesday afternoon. As the high moves south then northwest the trough that was over the Siberian Coast will move up over the top of the ridge to be over MacKenzie Bay by Wednesday morning with a 520 dam low developing and continuing to dig south and west as the high persists over the Chukchi Sea. At 850 hpa...Temperatures below zero with the -10 isotherm lying from Point Lay to Beaver Creek YT this morning and the -20 isotherm over Demarcation Point. The cold air continues to be pulled south over the Yukon Territory and the -10 isotherm will move to lie from Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Ambler to Galena to Yakutat, while the -20 isotherm will lie from Kaktovik to Atigun Pass to Dawson YT Monday morning. The cold air will nudge just a bit further west through Tuesday morning before it gets pushed back into Canada Tuesday night. Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow around a 980 mb low near the Gulf of Anadyr persists over the Bering Sea and West Coast today while high pressure associated with a 1039 mb high 500 nm north of Point Barrow builds south over mainland Alaska to the Copper River Basin with a 1027 mb center developing in the Northern Yukon Territory. High pressure continues to build over the state as the low in the Bering Sea moves into Siberia and dissipates. The high in the Arctic will move to 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay by Monday morning with a high over the Yukon Territory building to 1037 mb. A 949 mb low will move to Amchitka by Monday morning and moves slowly east to Atka by Tuesday afternoon as it weakens to 973 mb. High pressure will build in south of the Eastern Brooks Range tonight and tighten the pressure gradient across the Ray and White Mountains, the Upper Chena and Salcha Basins, and eventually the Upper Tanana Valley with the Tanana Valley Jet kicking in. Leeside troughing north of the Brooks Range will develop Monday as trough builds east across the Plains and Arctic Coast while high pressure builds west over the south slopes over the Eastern Brooks Range creating a tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range. The pressure gradient will also tighten up over the Nulato Hills tonight and persist through the week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ground Blizzard conditions continue around Point Lay and expect them to continue so no changes to the Warning and the Winter Weather Advisory for the Western Brooks Range. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 07/1015Z not showing much low stratus over the Arctic Coast this morning, and observations confirm that. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 07/1016Z shows a nice patch of stratus over the Beaufort Sea that is moving southwest toward the Eastern Arctic Coast and will need to be watched. Most of the area will be partly cloudy. Northeast to East winds continue across the area at 10 to 25 mph with winds around 30 to 40 mph around Point Lay. Blowing snow will continue around the area and visibility may be impacted more as winds pick up a bit this afternoon. Very poor visibility will continue around Point Lay into the late afternoon. Pressure gradient tightens up over the Eastern Brooks Range Monday with gusty gap winds to 40 mph developing. Temperatures slightly warmer on the northwest coast, and cooler on the Eastern Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying front will move north over parts of the coast today with some light snow or flurries. A slight chance of freezing drizzle or rain this morning on the Seward Peninsula. As high pressure builds over the interior it will push the front off the coast this evening with clearing over the area. Pressure gradient tightens up over the Nulato Hills Monday as high pressure builds west and the low moves to the Aleutians with winds gusting to around 50 mph locally. The low over the Aleutians Monday will swing a front north over the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island Tuesday with a slight chance of snow. No significant changes in the coastal temperatures through Monday, but trending cooler as the offshore flow pulls cooler air out of the interior. Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure continue to build over the area. Mostly clear conditions will continue, but there is some patchy stratus in the Upper Yukon Flats and Valley, and Upper Tanana Valley. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 07/1016Z shows the stratus appears to be expanding to the west out of the Yukon Territory and will need to be watched as the flow around the high may continue to spread it into the Eastern Interior. The pressure gradient tightens over the Ray and White Mountains, and Upper Chena and Salcha Basins with gusting winds increasing later today and continuing into Tuesday at higher elevations. As the low moves to the Aleutians the leeside trough enhances north of the Alaska Range and the Tanana Valley Jet will kick back in with gusty winds starting Monday night and continuing into Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to fall as cold air filters in from the east with the coldest temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning falling to the 30s below to around 40 below. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Temperature forecast remains difficult, but models are in better agreement on continued cooling in the Interior. A upper level low will move over the Upper Yukon Flats Wednesday night that may spread some clouds into the area, otherwise mostly clear conditions through the week. Models are in fairly good agreement so a blend of the current solutions with the ensemble mean should provide a good start. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ201. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ205-AKZ211. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 261324 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 424 AM AKST Tue Dec 26 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good run to run continuity continues for the short term solutions, but after about 60 hours the models continue to change and diverge as they move into the extended periods. 26/00Z solutions initialized well position wise against the 26/06Z surface analysis with the high over the Yukon Territory about 6 mb stronger than the models, and the low over the Arctic about 2 mb deeper. Very limited precipitation in the forecast area with it primarily from the Brooks Range north and over the Bering Strait the next couple days, so will go with a NAM/SREF blend for the short term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...558 dam high is 400 nm north of Demarcation Point remains over the the Beaufort Sea with ridging extending north over the pole, and south over the AlCan Border and will remain quasi stationary today as the axis rotates slowly clockwise and a 552 dam high develops over the Gulf of Alaska. By Wednesday morning the high will be over Mackenzie Bay at 551 dam with ridgingextending northeast over the Canadian Archipelago, and southwest to the 550 dam high over the Northern Gulf of Alaska. A 540 low over the Lower Yukon Delta will move north to the Upper Kobuk Valley by Wednesday morning as it merges into the longwave trough that is moving out of the Siberian Arctic and will be over 170W. By late Wednesday evening the trough moves to 160W with a 535 dam closed low developing over Kotzebue Sound, the ridge over the Yukon Territory weakening to 544 dam, and the high over the Norther Gulf of Alaska moving over Prince William Sound at 547 dam. A 551 dam high will develop over the Central Aleutians later today and move north across the Bering Sea to just west of the Gulf of Anadyr by Wednesday evening with a closed 556 dam center. A shortwave lies from the Lower Yukon Delta to Yakutat this morning and will move slowly northeast to lie from the Upper Kobuk to Tok by Wednesday morning, then over the Upper Yukon Flats by Wednesday evening. The closed low slowly moves southwest Thursday night, but models are not in agreement on position at this time. At 850 hpa...A cooling trend continues and temperatures across the forecast area will be below -10C by this afternoon. Surface...High pressure remains over the forecast area with a 1042 mb high over the Upper Yukon Flats, and a 1044 mb high over the Upper Tanana Valley in the Yukon Territory and high pressure extending west over the Coast and southwest over Bristol Bay and north over the Arctic Coast. A weather front will move out of the Siberian Arctic and across the northern Arctic Tuesday and Wednesday. A 1042 mb high will develop over the Arctic Plain tonight with a decaying front in the Central Chukchi Sea extending south to a 1036 mb low over St Lawrence Island and a 1027 mb low near the Central Aleutians. A 1049 mb high will build over Eastern Siberia and move to Wrangel Island at 1054 mb by Wednesday evening with a 1053 mb high persisting over Eastern Siberia. A weak trough will develop over the Middle Koyukuk Valley with a 1038 mb center near Bettles on Wednesday morning and slide south over the Upper Yukon Flats with a 1035 mb low near Fort Yukon, remaining in the area as it dissipates by Friday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Well the clear skies have been replaced by low stratus ceilings in most areas, and expect the remainder of the coastal areas will see lower ceilings by days end. NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics product at 26/1041Z indicates a large patch of stratus over the Central Arctic Coast and as the ridging builds east later today the will move to the remainder of the coast. GOES MVFR/IFR products at 26/1230Z indicate a large area of MVFR with a smaller area of IFR over and just east of Point Barrow. Slight chance of Freezing Drizzle in the coastal areas with the warmer air aloft still in the area. Expect the warmer air to move out a bit later this morning with much cooler temperatures than the past day or so. Winds generally southwest to 15 mph this morning diminishing through the day to south at 5 to 10 mph. West Coast and Western Interior...Most areas will be partly cloudy by afternoon. Some black stratus has formed over the area and can be seen on the that formed over the area will dissipate today. Winds generally light and variable. Some flurries south of Kotzebue Sound this morning, with a chance of snow around Kotzebue Sound as the decaying front moves through the area. No significant snowfall is expected. Temperatures trending cooler. Central and Eastern Interior...Generally quiet weather over the area. Some clouds associated with a upper level trough may kick off a flurry west of Fairbanks this morning, otherwise clearing skies. Light winds. Temperatures will be slowly cooling. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are still very confused, so will lean on the WPC solution which will most likely be a blend of the ensemble means. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB DEC 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 251216 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 316 AM AKST Mon Dec 25 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Agreement in the short term continues with a weak rather benign pattern developing over the state and persisting through the week. Run to run short term continuity has been very good. As has been the tendency, they diverge quite a bit beyond 72 hours or so, and the extended periods are significantly different. 25/00Z solutions initialized well against the 25/06Z surface analysis with the high over the Yukon Territory about 5 mb stronger than the models. Very little if any precipitation in the forecast area, so will be sticking with the SREF again today. Aloft...Ridging over the state continues to slowly work north with the 559 dam high now 400 nm north of Demarcation point over the the Beaufort Sea with ridging extending north over the pole, and south over the British Columbia Coast. Heights are falling over the southwest interior as a 529 dam low moves northeast into the Kuskokwim Delta, and into the Middle Yukon Valley tonight and over the Upper Koyukuk River Valley Wednesday. Weak shortwaves continue to move northwest over the Lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, The Bering Strait, and St Lawrence island today. The high will be quasi stationary through Tuesday afternoon, then drifts east and south over the Northwest Territories Coast by late Wednesday evening. Longwave trough over Siberia extends south over Adak this morning and will slowly move east to lie from the New Siberian Islands over the Gulf of Anadyr and south over Seguam Island by Tuesday morning. The trough will be over the Dateline and the Bering Strait by Wednesday morning with a 537 dam low developing over the Pribilof Islands. As the trough continues to move east, the trough expands and the low over the Upper Koyukuk merges with it. Models start to diverge at this point, but there is some agreement on developing a closed 530ish dam low over the central part of the state. At 850 hpa...A cooling trend from the southwest as upper level trough lifts northeast and eventually merges with the longwave trough over the interior. Temperatures over the forecast area will be below -10C by Tuesday afternoon. Surface...High pressure remains to the east with a 1037 mb high in the Upper Tanana and Yukon Valleys. Pressure gradient over the Upper Yukon remains fairly tight with some gusty winds in the Eagle area persisting as weak troughing persists over the interior with a 1030 mb high over the Eastern Brooks Range. Troughing extends southeast from the Chukotsk Peninsula over St Lawrence Island, and the southwest mainland Coast, Bristol Bay, and Kodiak Island this morning and is lifting northeast and by this afternoon will lie from Wrangel Island across the Seward peninsula to a 1025 mb low just south of the Kenai Peninsula. As it continues to lift north it merges with the troughing over the Arctic Coast and lifts north across the Arctic. A 1033 mb high will develop over Nunivak Island this afternoon and move northeast to the Upper Kobuk as it builds to 1038 mb by Tuesday morning. Troughing will persist over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and Central Bering Sea as a 1046 mb high builds over Eastern Siberia. Southeast flow into the eastern interior will persist bringing cold continental air into the area. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions continue for most of the Arctic today, but GOES MVFR/IFR products at 25/11Z indicate potential for low ceilings to develop just offshore and move over the Eastern Arctic Coast so will need to watch that closely today. Latest NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics products show quite a few open leads and open water areas near shore that may enhance stratus development over some coastal areas. Troughing over the coast with high pressure over the interior is producing some gusty winds in the Brooks Range to around 30 mph. Locally some blowing snow is possible with poor visibility along the Dalton highway. West Coast and Western Interior...Front lifting northeast into the area will produce a few snow showers today, trough hangs up north to south over Kotzebue Sound south over the Seward Peninsula and the Lower Yukon Delta and may produce around 2 inches of snow in the Nulato Hills and Bendeleben Mountains. Lighter amounts will fall as far south as Bethel and north over the Chuckhi Sea coast to Kivalina. Winds generally light as the tight gradient across the area the last few days has weakened. Temperatures cooling as the upper level trough lifts to the north. Central and Eastern Interior...Continued mostly clear though a few patches of clouds may move over the western half of the interior. Some stratus starting to develop over the central Yukon Territory can be seen on GOES products and appears to be moving west in the low level flow, so will need to watch this closely to see if it will impact the Eastern Interior and Upper Tanana Valley. Temperatures not changing much with inversion in place and very little solar heating. Possible that some higher clouds will move over the interior tonight as the trough lifts northeast, and that would greatly impact the temperature forecast making them much warmer. For this forecast will go with the cooler temperatures since it looks like the clouds will be scattered at best. Inversion for the Fairbanks will remain strong, but if we do get some clouds it may weaken a bit tonight, then restrengthen Tuesday night as the skies clear again and cooler surface temperatures occur. Tanana Valley Jet continues to blow with winds gusting to around 40 mph around Delta Junction and 15 mph around Nenana. Winds will be diminishing this morning around Delta Junction and by afternoon around Eagle as the troughing over the interior weakens as a 1031 mb high builds over the Upper Yukon Flats today. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Beyond a general cooling trend, the extended solutions show little agreement, so will lean on a blend of the model means. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 241300 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 400 AM AKST Sun Dec 24 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Not seeing much difference in the solutions, and continuity this weekend has been pretty good. There is better agreement as the solutions move into the midrange, but the extended periods remain confused. Latest surface analysis at 24/06Z is very similar to the 6 hour solutions from the 24/00Z forecast cycle, with the only difference being the highs are a bit stronger and the low are a bit weaker. Not much precipitation in the forecast area, so will be sticking with the SREF again today. Aloft...Ridging over the state continues to slowly work north with the 561 dam high now near Old Crow YT and the ridge axis extending northwest to 80N 170W this morning and south to Seattle. Heights over the southwest mainland are falling as the high moves north. Troughing extends from Central Siberia to a 505 dam low over the Central Bering Sea to a 523 dam low over the Alaska Peninsula and over the Northeast Pacific this morning. The trough is starting to lift to the north as the high moves and the low over the Alaska Peninsula will move north over the Lower Kuskokwim Delta tonight at 527 dam, and continues to move north merging with a 519 dam low over the Chukotsk peninsula Monday afternoon. The high will move to 75N 140W by Monday afternoon at 559 dam, then slowly starts drifting east as it weakens. The trough lifting north will lie from the Lower Yukon Delta to Yakutat by Monday morning, and merges with troughing to lie over the Chukchi Sea, Kotzebue Sound, and southeast to Yakutat by Tuesday morning. At 850 hpa...A cooling trend in the west as the trough lifts north with cooler temperatures slowly spreading east in the interior. Meanwhile as the high ridge aloft lifts north cooler air will also filter in from the east starting midweek. Surface...Already settling down over the west coast today as the gradient continues to relax across the area. A 997 mb low over St lawrence Island will move north across the Chukotsk Peninsula in to the western Chuckchi Sea by Monday morning. A 1001 mb low north of the central Alaska Peninsula will move northeast over King Salmon and dissipate. A 997 mb low south of the Central Alaska Peninsula will move northeast over Kodiak Island to the mouth of Cook Inlet by Monday morning, and to Prince William Sound by Monday evening, and near Yakutat by Tuesday morning. Troughing persists over the Arctic Coast and a 1017 mb low will develop in the trough over the Arctic Plain Monday and merge with low pressure over the Chukchi Sea and lift north into the Arctic. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear today, but some low stratus will float around the area, but nothing extensive today. Latest NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics products show some stratus over the Beaufort Sea that will need to be watched. Also the GOES MVFR/IFR product at 24/1130Z is not indicating any ceiling potential in the area. Some high clouds over the far western Brooks Range, and some slightly stronger winds west of Point Lay that will be diminishing today. Winds coming up a bit at Kaktovik as the gradient gets pinched, but they will generally be less than 20 mph form the east. West Coast and Western Interior...A few showers still moving across the area as a few shortwaves move northwest across the lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, the Bering Strait Coast, and St Lawrence Island. Some clearing in the Western Interior today. Temperatures cooling today, with a weak front moving north tonight spreading some snow to the Lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and the Seward Peninsula. Snow will spread north over the Chukchi Sea coast Monday. Snowfall amounts tonight will range up to 3 inches, with another 3 inches over the Seward Peninsula and the Chukchi Sea Coast by Tuesday morning. AS the trough lifts north snow will slowly spread into the Western Interior Monday night with up to 2 inches possible. Winds diminishing today along the coast from 15 to 30 mph to 5 to 15 mph for most areas. Light winds in the Middle Yukon Valley today. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear. Temperatures not changing much with inversion in place and very little solar heating. Inversion around Fairbanks will remain strong into midweek. Gap winds are diminishing, but Tanana Valley Jet continues to blow with winds gusting to around 50 mph around Delta Junction and 25 mph around Nenana. Strong gusty winds to around 30 mph continue in the Eagle area as well. Some gusty winds and blowing snow on the Elliott Highway Summits west of Livengood as a bubble high persists north of the Ray Mountains. Ptarmigan Pass will be the most likely area for poor visibility in blowing snow. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...A little better agreement in the midrange, but the extended solutions continue to be in poor agreement. Some snow developing over the Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea, and Arctic Wednesday night and Thursday, otherwise generally quiet. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200. && $$ SDB DEC 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 111156 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 356 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2017 .DISCUSSION...A strong ridge over the Intermountain West will continue to be the main feature dominating our weather much of this week. Taking a look at the latest pass from the polar orbiting satellite, Suomi NPP, the NASA SPoRT nighttime microphysics imagery via the VIIRS instrument is showing areas of low clouds/fog in the Umpqua Basin from about Scottsburg to Elkton and Drain south along Interstate 5 to around 227 Canyonville. We currently have a dense fog advisory in effect for those areas. More fog/stratus can be seen in the Rogue/Illinois Valleys, and indeed, fog has developed here at the airport in the last hour. A freezing fog advisory is in effect in these locations. Specific advisory details can be viewed at NPWMFR. Patchy fog is also showing up in the lower Klamath River Valley as well as the Scott Valley and in the Christmas Valley over northern Lake County. 24 hours ago, the imagery was virtually the same, and with little change in the atmospheric profile, a persistence forecast will once again be favored over any single piece of guidance with respect to sky/temperatures today. An offshore front will make its way toward the coastal waters late today and tonight, but will dissipate Tuesday as it runs into the strong ridge. The ridge will re-establish along the West Coast Tuesday through Thursday resulting in more of the status quo - morning fog/stratus in the valleys west of the Cascades that will have difficulty breaking in some areas during the afternoons. Overall, it will remain cool/chilly in the valleys with milder conditions along the coast and at elevations just above the valley floors. -Spilde .LONG TERM...Thursday night until next Tuesday...No changes. A short wave trough will break through the ridge Friday. This trough will bring a little bit of rain and perhaps some freezing rain east of the Cascades Friday morning. The freezing rain should be very light looking at the model QPF output and the soundings east of the Cascades. After this quick hitting system moves through Friday, a deep trough will setup in the Gulf of Alaska. In general, models are in pretty good agreement with what will happen as an atmospheric river type event will impact the region. This should result in wetting precipitation for the majority of next weekend. The only reason for a little lack of confidence is how models are still changing run to run with exact timing and location. Right now the forecast calls for snow levels around 4000-6500 feet on Saturday before the snow levels rise on Sunday. The bulk of the precipitation will arrive when snow levels are higher, so not willing to commit to say that the mountains will see enough snow to make a difference in the snow pack. After Sunday night, it appears some more precipitation will be on the way during the Tuesday and Wednesday time frame. It's still unclear how strong that upcoming system might be or if it will miss the Oregon area entirely. -Smith && .AVIATION...11/12Z TAF CYCLE...IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this morning for RBG and MFR TAF sites. This is essentially a persistent forecast as the inversion has strengthened even more tonight. IFR/LIFR conditions will continue until the early afternoon hours on Monday for the Umpqua Valley and should lift around the noon hour in the Rogue Valley. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere, including the coast and coastal waters. -Sven && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Monday, Dec 11th, 2017...High pressure will remain in control over the waters with conditions remaining below small craft advisory levels through mid week. A dissipating cold front is expected to brush the outer portions of the coastal waters area late Monday, at which time west swell will increase through Tuesday afternoon. North winds will increase Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds, but will likely remain below small craft advisory levels. A change to a more active weather pattern is expected this weekend with increased swell and periods of increased southerly winds. -Sven && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 2 PM PST Thursday for ORZ023-024-026-029>031. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ023. Freezing Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ024-026. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...None. $$ MAS/SBN/CZS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 282159 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1259 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...The 28/12Z solutions did initialize well against the 28/18Z surface analysis for positions and central pressures.Good agreement aloft in the short term for this set of solutions. Moving into the extended periods there continues to be some similarity in the solutions early, then significant differences the further out they go. Will use an equal blend for the short term, but will need to go in an tweak the temperatures individually. For the extended periods will lean on the WPC solutions which used primarily a blend of the Ensemble means. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Ridging extends south over the Arctic Coast from a 545 dam high over the Pole and will slide west to the Dateline by Wednesday morning as a 503 dam low develops south of Banks Island and moves west over Prudhoe Bay by Wednesday morning. The low will continue west to the Chukchi Sea by Wednesday night at 506 dam, then southwest over the Bering Strait by Thursday morning. A 510 dam low over the Central Brooks Range will move southwest over Kotzebue by Wednesday morning, then merge with the low moving over the Bering Strait. A weak trough will persist over the Arctic Plain. Weak ridging over the Southeast Interior will slide north a bit and push into the Central Interior east of Tanana tonight an persist into Wednesday night before breaking down. A 491 dam low near Cold Bay will weaken to 505 dam as it moves over Sand Point by Wednesday evening, then moves south of the Gulf of Alaska as it continues to weaken. Ridging over the Western Bering Sea will move to the Eastern Bering Sea and Bering Strait by Thursday evening. A col will develop over the Central Interior Thursday and be pushed out by Friday morning as the ridging over the West Coast moves inland. At 850 hpa...Temperatures over the forecast area will remain fairly static from -5C to -15C as the -10 isotherm lies from Norton Sound to Eagle through Thursday. Surface...Ridging continues over the Central and Eastern Interior with a 1005 mb high over the Yukon Territory and a 1002 mb high over the Upper Yukon Flats. A 953 mb stacked low over Dutch Harbor will slowly move to Sand Point by Wednesday evening, then moves southeast into the north Pacific as it weakens. A ridge of high pressure will push north over the western Bering Sea Wednesday evening, and moves to the Eastern Bering Sea south of the Bering Strait by Thursday morning. A weak high pressure pattern will persist over the interior through the week. A weather front will move to the Western Bering Sea Thursday morning, and to the West Coast and Bering Strait by Friday morning. High pressure over the Arctic will persist as a 1028 mb high north of the Canadian Archipelago moves southwest to the Dateline, then west into the Siberian Arctic. A weak trough will persist over the Arctic Plain extending east to a 997 mb low near Banks Island. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range with enhanced pressure gradient in the upper Tanana Valley and across the Alaska Range as high pressure persists over the Copper River Basin and Yukon Territory. The high breaks down a bit Thursday, but expect it to return on Saturday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus persisting over the area can be seen on the SPoRT NPP VIIRS Nighttime Microphysics RGB product at 28/1746Z. GOES MVFR Probability from 28/1845Z showing most of the Chukchi Sea and Arctic Coast have high probability of stratus. With weak troughing in the area expect the stratus to continue to hang over the area with flurries and patchy fog. Winds along the coast will be primarily northeast at 10 to 20 mph, while inland winds will be southeast to southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures falling slowly through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior...Some stratus floating around in the Bering Strait, Norton Sound, the Lower Yukon Delta, and the Eastern Bering Sea may produce some light snow of flurries, up to 1 inch of snow can be expected on St Lawrence Island, elsewhere no significant accumulations is expected tonight. Winds on the coast northwest to northeast and generally decreasing overnight south of Kivalina. North of Kivalina winds increasing with gusts around 50 mph. Winds on St Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon Delta will be northeast to east at 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures steady to slightly warmer as some warm air is pushed north. Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure over the Yukon continues to hold on impacting the weather in the Central and Eastern Interior. Tanana Valley Jet will persist and increase some overnight as the gradient tightens up a bit so expect gusts to 45 mph developing. Gap flow winds will develop across the Alaska Range as well with some gust to around 40 mph tonight and Wednesday, then gusts around 50 mph Wednesday night. A bubble high develops north of the Ray Mountains, so expect some gusty winds along the Elliott Highway to 45 mph tonight, strongest through Ptarmigan Pass. With the exception of some high clouds moving through the area, most areas will be partly cloudy the next couple days. Not much snow in the forecast at this time, next chance looks like Thursday for the Fairbanks area. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southeast to south winds developing in advance of a storm in the Bering Sea has the potential to produce High Surf on St Lawrence Island and in Norton Sound Thursday night through Friday. && Extended Forecast days 4 to 7...Relatively quiet in the Arctic and over the West Coast. A weather front will move over the West Coast Friday night and dissipate as it moves inland Saturday and Sunday. Strong gusty winds will develop over the West Coast and Chukchi Sea Saturday and persist into Monday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ221. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235. && $$ SDB NOV 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 252300 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 200 PM AKST Sat Nov 25 2017 .DISCUSSION... Overall, generally quiet weather across mainland Alaska but there are some weather impacts particularly along the southern portions of the West Coast as stronger winds have developed today and will continue through Monday that will cause high surf on Sunday into Monday morning. These winds will also create some blowing snow impacts along the Yukon Delta area. Although there are some model differences in extended, the general weather pattern shows another frontal system pushing moisture to southern portion of the West Coast and potentially some upslope flow to Alaska Range with downsloping southerly winds on the north side of the range by mid week. The next potential for widespread precipitation across Interior Alaska will likely be late next week as a third in a series of upper level lows moves across western Bering Sea. Aloft at 500mb, the high pressure ridge over the West Coast will continue to move into the Western Interior tonight. This ridge will weaken as it gets squeezed by the 519 dam low that is stretched across the eastern Brooks Range and the 484 dam low over the Pribilof Islands by Sunday morning. The low over eastern Brooks Range moves southward towards the Alaska Range and then pushes west. By Sunday night the ridge is completely eroded as the models show the weakened 506 dam low over Alaska Range will move west. This will become embedded in the flow around the first stronger low moving eastward along the Aleutians. Another second stronger low in the western Bering Sea moves on a similar track to the previous system just north of the Aleutians and will be located between St George Island and Unalaska by Tuesday morning as the low that was embedded in flow around the first system moves northwest of St Lawrence Island. Late in the week will be a third low system will that will moved across the western Bering Sea which will likely bring widespread precipitation to mainly Alaska again. At the surface, a front associated with a 979 mb low moving north of Russia will continue to move across the northern Bering and southern Chukchi Seas tonight causing an increase in winds tonight. A 948 mb low will move toward the St George Island Sunday Morning at 941 mb. Still some variations by the models on exact location of redeveloping low near Nunivak Island early Monday morning at 966 mb. A leeside trough will develop just north of the Alaska Range on tomorrow and will strengthen Sunday night into Monday setting up a nice pressure gradient that will bring winds for the Tanana Valley Jet and some gap winds. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Relatively quiet weather with fog and lingering flurries along portions of eastern Arctic coast with such as Alpine or Nuiqsut but will be ending by early evening. Winds will increase from southeast on Chukchi coast which will push fog and lower stratus offshore. On Beaufort Sea coast easterly winds will keep the fog and stratus into the area. Do not expect any accumulating precipitation through mid week. West Coast and Western Interior: A weather front over the Bering Sea will bring southerly winds with gusts to 65 mph to St. Lawrence Island and Bering Strait coast today along with a mixture of snow and rain. Currently the rain over St Lawrence Island. The winds on St. Lawrence Island will shift to the east tonight and increase in magnitude in response to an approaching area of low pressure. Gusts will increase to 65 mph for St Lawrence beginning on tomorrow morning and will continue on Monday. Since winds started earlier along the Bering Strait near Wales and Teller, included the location and started the High Wind Warning earlier this morning which will continue through Monday. Winds will shift from easter to northeast but winds will diminish on Monday afternoon. With stronger winds, expect high surf to be possible too with High Surf advisory starting midnight tonight through Monday as expect 2 to 3 ft above high tide. Otherwise winds over the Yukon Delta and eastern Norton Sound will increase as well as become more easterly. The stronger winds even with little falling precipitation will cause blowing snow and reduce the visibility to one half mile or less at times. For other areas across Western Interior do not expect precipitation until next Tuesday night into Wednesday with potential for 2 to 4 inches. Central and Eastern Interior: Biggest debate tonight will be the lingering stratus deck across the Central Interior and how cold the temperatures will drop. Overnight there were some brief clearing in areas with temperatures able to drop as low as -24F in the great Fairbanks area before the cloud cover came back in. Still confident for colder temperatures tonight as there is gradual clearing of cloud cover as seen by satellite imagery. Latest VIIRS satellite imagery shows clearing to northeast of greater Fairbanks area around Pleasant Valley and sunny skies in Fox. Finally starting to see some blue skies north of UAF as well Models also show breakup of this stratus deck with less cloud cover tonight which in turn will result in colder temperatures. A leeside trough will develop just north of the Alaska Range tomorrow which will create the Tanana Valley Jet to develop resulting in winds picking up in the Delta Junction area. Gap winds will also develop through the passes in the Alaska Range along with potential for increased winds in summits/higher elevations in the Interior. Not anticipating that these winds will become any criteria for advisory levels. Although there may be blowing snow in some areas, it should not reduce visibility to warrant winter storms advisories. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. High Surf advisory in effect midnight night through Monday for St Lawrence Island with impacts on north facing portions of the island. Expect water levels of 2-3 ft above high tide peaking on Sunday morning and diminishing during day on Monday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory for AKZ213. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214. High Wind Warning for AKZ213. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230-PKZ235. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215. && $$ mak Nov 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 091038 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 238 AM AKDT Tue May 9 2017 .DISCUSSION... Forecast highlights include a late spring snow north of the Brooks Range and some afternoon/evening convection over the eastern and central interior. Otherwise, fairly benign weather across the forecast area. The 09/00Z model suite is in good agreement through most of the forecast, except for over the Bering Sea where there are differences in model solutions in regards to a low moving north of the Aleutian Island chain late Thursday. The GFS is a bit stronger, progressive, and further south with the track of the low compared to the NAM and ECMWF. Aloft...An eastward moving shortwave, clearly evident on the latest IR satellite imagery, stretches from north of Barrow to Shaktoolik and Mountain Village. This shortwave will continue to trek east through Wednesday evening. The southern extent of this shortwave will stall over the eastern Interior Wednesday night and retrograde southwest Thursday morning, while the northern part treks east towards Banks Island. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build north over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska through Thursday. A 531 dam low over the western Gulf of Alaska will move southeast towards the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. Surface...Ridge of high pressure stretching from the central Aleutian Islands north along the West Coast and Bering Sea and over Northwest Alaska and Chukchi Sea will remain in place and expand over the North Slope through Wednesday, while building over the Arctic Ocean. As a strong low moves in from the Northern Pacific late Wednesday, high pressure will erode over the Bering Sea through Thursday. The thermal low over the southern interior will continue to weaken today and into Wednesday as cooler temperatures and cloud cover dominate. The pressure gradient along the Brooks Range and over the Fortymile Country and Yukon uplands will increase Wednesday into Thursday as surface high pressure builds over the Arctic Ocean. North Slope...The main issue will be accumulating snow along the north slopes of the Brooks Range and over the Arctic Plains through Wednesday as the shortwave treks east. 09/00Z models are in good agreement that 2 to 4 inches of snow will accumulate through Wednesday evening. Lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected along the central Beaufort Sea coast. The latest images from the NPP VIIRS fog product and the NASA SPoRT LEO 24-Hour Microphysics product shows an expansive area of stratus stretching west well beyond Wrangel Island and stretching south towards the Bering Strait. Will continue to expect stratus to hang in along the western Arctic Coast today. West Coast and Western Interior...A band of stratus stretching south from the Arctic and over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, and over St. Lawrence Island is clearly evident on the latest images of the the NPP VIIRS fog product and the NASA SPoRT LEO 24-Hour Microphysics product. Weak offshore flow over the Chukchi Sea coast north of Cape Krusenstern and over the Bering Strait coast is keeping the stratus at bay and will continue to do so today. Temperatures will climb by a degree or two each day through Friday under the upper level ridge. Eastern and Central Interior...The main issue will be convective potential over the next several days. Expecting a few thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon and into the evening ahead of a southeast moving shortwave along a line from Eagle to Fairbanks and McGrath. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and cloud cover, increased moisture and a slightly unstable airmass (lifted indicies -1C to -2C and CAPE 200 to 400 J/kg) aided by the uplift provided by the shortwave. Similar situation on Wednesday, but shifted east over the southeast Interior. Temperatures will remain in the 50s to lower 60s through Thursday, but will warm into the 60s Friday and into the weekend as warmer H850 temperatures pushed north. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low-level moisture has increased across the Eastern and Central Interior and will result in higher minimum relative humidity values over the next few days. However, across the Western Interior, will see some drying and lower minimum relative humidity values through Thursday. Will see isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening along a line from McGrath to Fairbanks and Eagle and then over the Southeast Interior Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Breakup continues to progress along the Yukon River with the breakup front still upstream of Circle, even though movement in the ice pack was reported at Circle today. Otherwise, ice for the most part is rotten and is tending to mush out along the breakup front along the Yukon River. To the north, the Koyukuk River ice went out earlier this evening with a slight rise in the water level noted by the observer. Will continue to keep close tabs on the breakup front and ice flows. An increase in cloud coverage and low-level moisture and slightly cooler temperatures are expected over the next couple of days. The slightly cooler temperatures will only have a small decrease on snowmelt and runoff over the Yukon Uplands and higher terrain in the Fortymile Country. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ LTH MAY 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 271221 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 421 AM AKDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...They do continue to produce too much precipitation over interior Alaska, so will lean on the NAM which the last couple weeks has been doing a better job as far as coverage. For 27/00Z runs the surface initialized well at 27/06Z against the in house analysis. Run to run not seeing significant changes in the solutions, and they are fairly similar into the midrange. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging persists north of the Alaska Range with the axis lying from Carmacks YT to Shishmaref. A weak trough lies over the Brooks Range, and a 534 dam high is 150 nm northwest of Point Lay, and a 525 dam low is over Unalaska this morning with troughing south of the Bering Strait. By Friday morning the ridging remains over the interior, the troughing over the Brooks Range dissipate, the high over the arctic moves to 150 northeast of Point Barrow, and the low over Unalaska weakens as it moves over the Alaska Peninsula. And by Saturday morning, the ridging and high are starting to slide to the north a bit, and the a trough lies along 55N with a 511 dam low near Shemya. At 850 hpa...Temperatures relatively flat through the weekend. Surface...A 1022 mb high lies 200 nm north of Demarcation point with ridging extending west along 73N and will persist through Friday then start sliding slowly to the northeast. Weak trough lies over the state from the Alaska Range south and southwest over the central Aleutians. A 1003 mb low over Unalaska will weaken and be absorbed by a 965 mb low moving into the western Bering Sea late Friday. A 1002 mb low in the Yukon Territory will persist with weak troughing over the upper Tanana Valley. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Sheet of stratus that really stands out on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hr Microphysics RGB product at 26/2332Z looks like it covers most of the arctic and extends well west into the Siberian arctic. So continues low clouds and light snow or flurries with no significant accumulations. Some patchy fog. Winds northeast to east 15 to 30 mph with the strongest winds over the northwest coast. lighter winds in inland locations. West Coast and Western Interior...Another day just like the other day, with lots of clouds, but breaks, and some showers of rain and snow mainly south of the Bering Strait. Mainly rain, but mixing or changing to snow overnight north of the Lower Yukon Delta. A bit winds out on St Lawrence island and in the Bering Strait, but winds ramping down a bit to north at 15 to 25 mph and slowly coming down through tonight. Winds along the remainder of the coast 5 to 15 mph, while inland areas with see 5 to 10 mph. Central and Eastern Interior...Generally Cloudy, with some periods of sunshine. A few sprinkles or showers across the area today with heaviest showers in the Fortymile Country. Around Fairbanks a flurry possible this morning. Winds northeast to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. && .FIRE WEATHER...Cloudy, with widely scattered showers in the interior. Relative Humidity values above 30 percent in all areas. Not seeing any significant wetting rains for any areas, but some showers may be heavy enough to produce wetting rains. No significant winds expected through the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB APR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 242240 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 240 PM AKDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .DISCUSSION... The current upper air pattern features a ridge that has persisted over northern Alaska the past few days. Currently this ridge sits along a Tanana to Northway axis. The ridge will begin to weaken tonight in response to a shortwave moving up along the west side of the ridge. This weakening will only be temporary as the ridge will build back along the same general orientation late in the workweek. A 510 dm low a 500 mb currently sits just east of Adak and will remain quasi-stationary until Thursday. At the surface, a low currently centered along 80 N north of Barter Island. A front stretches southwest from the low to Point lay. This front will move eastward tonight. A 1024 mb high sits in the Chukchi Sea north of the Chukotsk Peninsula. North Slope: The past few mornings we have seen dense fog all along the Arctic Coast. With the aforementioned front moving east current thinking is that any dense fog tonight and tomorrow morning will be limited to areas from Deadhorse east. Suomi NPP VIIRS shows a large area of stratus behind the front, so as the front spreads eastward cloud cover will increase. There will also be some flurries tonight and tomorrow for areas behind the front, along with some areas of fog. Central and Eastern Interior: It currently looks like today will be the warmest day of the week for most of the Interior. A cooling trend will begin tomorrow. A shortwave will move through the Interior tonight and tomorrow morning bringing along with it some scattered rain and/or snow showers. Any precipitation that does fall will be relatively light and for most places will only fall right as the shortwave is passing through. Cloud cover will also increase tonight across most of the Interior, with mostly cloudy skies persisting for much of the remainder of the workweek. Southerly winds with gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening in and near Alaska Range passes. West Coast and Western Interior: A tight pressures gradient is bringing northeasterly winds with gusts of around 45 mph to St. Lawrence Island. This will persist through early Wednesday. Scattered rain and/or snow showers are expected Tuesday and Wednesday for much of the west coast and western interior south of the Bering Strait. Chances for showers will decrease on Thursday for the western interior but will remain for the west coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cloud cover will increase tonight across the Interior with mostly cloudy skies persisting for the remainder of the workweek for most locations. Monday will likely be the warmest day of the week for most Interior locations. Temperatures on Tuesday will be generally cooler with higher minimum relative humidity values. Southerly winds with gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening in and near Alaska Range passes. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ APR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 102117 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 117 PM AKDT Mon Apr 10 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Much the same as yesterday, there is good agreement out to around 120 hours then solutions are very different for the extended periods. So, for midrange and extended periods will lean on a blend of the model means. Models continue to struggle with temperatures in the short term as we work through the transition season. Best precipitation guidance continues to be the SREF for the first 48 hours. Aloft...At 500 hpa...539 dam high remains over the arctic about 400 nm north of Point Barrow with ridging extending northwest into the arctic, and southeast to a 554 dam high over the southeast Yukon Territory border. A 517 dam low over the Chukchi Sea will move north today and weaken with a shortwave extending to the southeast of the low and moving northeast over the northern half of the state and the arctic. A 535 dam low will develop over the Kenai Peninsula this evening, moving over the north Gulf of Alaska Tuesday, then moving south and dissipating Wednesday. Ridging over the central and eastern bering sea with 546 dam heights over the Aleutians will move east over the west coast and Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon with 540 dam heights pushing north to Point Hope. The ridge continues to build and by Wednesday a 561 dam center will develop over the southwest mainland with 550 dam heights over most of mainland Alaska. The ridge gets cutoff Thursday and the center moves over interior Alaska. A 514 dam low over the Kuril Islands will move to the western Aleutians by Tuesday morning at 500 dam, then moves north into eastern Siberia and dissipates Thursday. A trough will persist over the eastern Bering Sea Thursday into Friday. At 850 hpa...Temperatures slightly cooler the next 24 hours, then warming a bit and relatively steady the remainder of the week. Surface...Trough over the west coast with a 1009 mb low over the Chukchi Sea that is moving north, and will be over Wrangel Island by Tuesday morning at 1018 mb. Troughing persists to the south over St Lawrence Island with a 1015 mb low dissipating over the island this evening. Weak ridging will develop over the area tonight. Over mainland Alaska weak leeside troughing persists north of the ranges under a relatively benign pressure pattern that will transition over the next 24 hours as a 1030 mb high develops over the western interior and builds to 1037 mb by Wednesday morning as it moves over the upper Yukon Flats. A weak front associated with the low near Wrangel Island will move across the arctic Tuesday. A 977 mb low will move to the western Aleutians by Tuesday morning, and into the central Bering Sea Wednesday. Ridging will persist over the northeast arctic with a 1036 mb high 500 nm north of Kaktovik. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus with a few flurries continues to be an issue with a large patchy that stretches, that can be see on NPP-VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB imagery at 10/1516Z, extending from MacKenzie Bay west over the central coast, then southwest over the northwest coast and Chukchi Sea. Base of stratus is pretty uniform with most areas reporting between 600 to 1200 ft ceilings. Some patchy fog is impacting areas, and that will also continue. A weak front will move northeast across the area tonight and Tuesday and kick off some flurries in the Brooks Range. No change in temperatures expected. Winds generally east at 5 to 20 mph, but they will swing around to southwest for a few hours as the front moves through. West Coast and Western Interior...Trough over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait is kicking off some light snow, mainly north of the Seward Peninsula. Locally accumulations to 2 to 4 inches possible next 24 hours. As the front pulls out weak high pressure will move over the area in advance of the next weather system moving into the eastern Bering Sea. Winds generally light next 24 hours, then increasing winds over the capes from the Bering Strait south, and St Lawrence Island, as the next system moves in. Winds on the capes and St Lawrence island will increase starting Tuesday afternoon to south at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 50 mph and continue strong through Thursday morning. Locally blowing snow may be an issue at Savoonga, Diomede, and on the Bering Strait coast with the strong south winds. Central and Eastern Interior...Some clouds moving through the area, with a few flurries possible east of Fairbanks the next 24 to 36 hours, then mostly clear the remainder of the week. Winds mainly northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures will remain relatively steady the remainder of the week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210. && $$ SDB APR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 092111 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 111 PM AKDT Sun Apr 9 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement out to around 120 hours before they start diverging. Midrange and extended periods will need to lean on a blend of the model means as they diverge to different solutions. Model output temperatures in the short term are getting better so will not be making significant changes, but will be tweaking the temperatures for a few locations to make them better line up with current trends. Best precipitation guidance continues to be the SREF for the first 48 hours as other models continue to produce too much coverage. Aloft...At 500 hpa...538 dam high remains over the arctic about 300 nm north of Point Barrow and will weaken and move east late Tuesday. The low over the northern interior has moved west as expected and is over the Bering Strait at 512 dam and will start moving north slowly on Monday to be over Wrangel Island Tuesday morning at 522 dam, then weakens to a shortwave as it moves over the the top of the building ridge. The low south of the Gulf of Alaska has weakened as a 526 dam and will dissipate later tonight. A 526 dam low in the northwest Pacific will move near the Queen Charlotte Islands and dissipate overnight. A 513 dam low over the central Aleutians will move southeast well south of the Gulf of Alaska as a ridge builds over the southwest interior. The ridge will continue to build over interior Alaska with a 562 dam center developing over the Kuskokwim Valley Wednesday afternoon and moving over Kotzebue Sound Thursday afternoon. A 514 dam low over the Kuril Islands will move to the western Aleutians by Tuesday morning at 500 dam. At 850 hpa...Temperatures remain relatively steady through the week. Surface...Trough over the west coast with a 1000 mb low over Norton Sound will persist tonight as the low shifts into the Bering Strait tonight and the trough lies over the Bering Strait and central Chukchi Sea. A weak ridge of high pressure will hang on over the eastern interior and arctic with a 1031 mb center near 80N 180 and the axis extending southeast to MacKenzie Bay, then south, with a 1014 mb center in the upper Yukon Flats. A 1007 mb low will move north over the AlCan border this evening and dissipate. A broad area of low pressure around a 986 mb low in the central Aleutians will weaken as the low moves east, then southeast. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus will be the big issue along the coast as a large patch has parked over the area and is not showing a lot of movement. Expect ceilings around 1500 feet with a high probability of areas of fog reducing visibility. Not much change in temperatures expected. Winds northeast to east at 5 to 20 mph. A few flurries, otherwise no significant snowfall expected along the coast. The western Brooks Range will see 2 to 4 inches in a few locations. NPP-VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB imagery at 09/1714Z shows a strip of stratus running from the northern Chukchi Sea over the coast north of Point Lay and east to the Northwest Territories of Canada. West Coast and Western Interior...Trough over the area will persist and move just a bit more to the west and that will pull more moisture up the eastern flank of the trough so more clouds and light snow developing. Heaviest snowfall will be in the upper Kobuk basin with 2 to 6 inches of snow before it tapers off Tuesday. Winds will be erratic with a couple of lows floating around, but should be from the east to southeast to south as it moves offshore at 5 to 15 mph. Locally the capes could see around 20 mph winds. Temperatures not changing much the next couple days. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear for most of the interior, through some high clouds may hang around. The exception will be over the AlCan border which will have more clouds this evening with some flurries possible, then clearing toward morning. Winds mainly northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures moderating a bit with lows a couple degrees warmer in most locations. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230. && $$ SDB APR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 082052 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1252 PM AKDT Sat Apr 8 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Short term agreement looks pretty good. They have handled the development of the low over the Northwest Territories that is backing its way west across the state very well. They start diverging quite a bit as we get into the midrange so will lean toward the GFS as it seemed to be a little better at that range over the past couple weeks. Model output temperatures much better than what they were putting out last week, so will maintain continuity and just tweak the current forecast database for the short term. Best precipitation guidance continues to be the SREF for the first 48 hours as other models continue to produce too much coverage. Aloft...At 500 hpa...537 dam high over the arctic with ha 513 dam low over the north Pacific. A 517 dam trough is backing west over the interior today and tonight and will be over the Bering Strait by Sunday morning as a 512 dam low. Weak ridge build over the eastern and central interior as the trough moves west tonight. The low will persist over the Bering Strait through Monday morning then move north over the Chukchi Sea before turning northeast then east and moving across the arctic to be 200 nm north of Point Barrow by Wednesday morning. The low in the northeast Pacific will move over the northern Gulf of Alaska and dissipate Monday. A 545 dam high will develop over the Yukon Territory Monday and build to 552 dam by Tuesday afternoon. A 500 dam low will move over the western Aleutians Tuesday and over the central Bering Sea Wednesday. At 850 hpa...Temperatures a bit cooler than the last week or so will be -5C to -15C for the next few days with the colder temperatures northwest of the interior. Surface...Cyclonic flow persists over the state with low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and the southwest mainland and High pressure over the arctic. A weak front lies southwest to northeast across the state and is slowly backing to the west tonight as the associated upper level low moves west. The front will stall over the west coast Sunday and Monday, then move north as the surface low moves into the Chukchi Sea, then east across the arctic. Weak high pressure is building in over the eastern interior as the front moves to the west. A relatively strong low will move to the western Aleutians Tuesday evening and into the central Bering Sea Wednesday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ridge over the arctic continues to squeeze the pressure gradient over the eastern arctic coast, but it will be settling down over the next 12 to 24 hours and conditions will be improving. Winds on the eastern arctic coast diminishing tonight to around 20 mph, and Sunday night to around 15 mph. Still have some patchy stratus being pushed west over the coast producing low ceilings mainly east of Wainwright. NPP-VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB imagery at 08/1553Z shows a strip over the eastern arctic coast and some over the north slopes of the western Brooks Range. Will maintain Winter Weather Advisories through Sunday morning as winds look like they will still be strong enough to be lofting whatever snow may be left and reducing visibility. Winds northeast at 10 to 25 mph with some gusts to 40 mph on the eastern arctic coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Increasing clouds over the area this evening as the front backs to the west with flurries of light snow showers developing over the western interior tonight. Snow developing over the west coast and parts of the western interior Sunday with accumulations up to 2 inches. The south slopes of western Brooks Range will see 3 to 6 inches over the next couple days. Winds will be 5 to 15 mph and direction will be dependent on the location of the surface low, but will mainly be out of the east. Temperatures not changing much the next couple days. Central and Eastern Interior...Clearing tonight for most areas though clouds will hang on a bit longer in the Central Interior. A few flurries possible to the west of Nenana this evening. Winds mainly northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures a bit cooler than the last few days as we clear out they will fall into the teens for most locations and will get into the single digits along the AlCan border and in the upper Yukon Flats. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB APR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 051033 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 233 AM AKDT Wed Apr 5 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Big picture agreement looks good through around 84 hours before diverging. 05/00Z runs initialized well against 05/06Z surface analysis. Operational model output temperatures continue to be way too cold so will maintain continuity by using previous day and current forecast database as a starting point, then make minor adjustments. Not expecting much precipitation today as another wave moves north and it looks like the SREF continues to perform best in the short term so will stick with it again today and out to around 48 hours. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 534 dam high remains 200 nm northeast of Barrow with ridging over the northeast corner of the state, and lows south of the Gulf of Alaska will merge this morning into a 512 dam center 300 nm southeast of Kodiak City. A fairly strong shortwave lies from Yakutat east and will move to lie from Seward to Fairbanks late tonight as it rotates around the low, and over the southwest coast Thursday morning. A 524 dam low will develop over Franklin Bay NWT this morning and move southwest over Fort McPherson NWT at 520 dam by Thursday morning, then over the AlCan border east of Chalkyitsik late Thursday, and over Bettles by Friday afternoon at 519 dam as it continues to move west. At 850 hpa...Temperatures cooling a few degrees today through Friday, then warming a bit on the weekend. Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow over the state as a 968 mb low moves just south of the Gulf of Alaska today and over southern Kodiak Island by Friday morning at 981 mb. Trough persists over the west coast and leeside troughing has developed over the arctic plain and coast. Expect weak leeside troughing to develop north of the Alaska range tonight. A 1030 mb high north of Banks Island will move slowly move south to Banks Island by Saturday morning. A strong pressure gradient will persist over the eastern arctic coast into the weekend. A 1012 mb high will develop just west of Wrangel Island today and build to 1022 mb by friday morning. A weather front will move to the southeast interior this evening with a 991 mb low developing over the upper Tanana Valley and persisting into Friday before dissipating. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...The eastern arctic coast will continue to be impacted by low visibility in fog and blowing snow with strong winds persisting through the weekend. Will maintain the current Winter Weather Advisories for zones 203 and 204. Visibility is mainly being impacted by fog with some snow being lofted by the winds. Very little stratus can be seen on the NPP- VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB imagery from 04/2345Z. West of Nuiqsut conditions much better conditions will prevail with improved visibility. Strongest winds east of Point Barrow with east winds 20 to 35 mph gusting to around 50 mph around Kaktovik. West of Point Barrow winds northeast to east at 10 to 20 mph. West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy for most areas again today with mainly snow showers from the Bering Strait south, but there may be some rain mixed in during the daytime hours. Temperatures a bit warmer today then cooling a bit the remainder of the week. Winds north to northeast over the coastal areas at with the strongest winds on the outer Capes and St Lawrence Island at 15 to 25 mph. Winds 10 to 20 mph for the remainder of the coastal areas, and 5 to 15 mph for the inland areas with the exception of some higher elevation areas where winds will continue to gust to around 40 mph through the evening, so will keep the Wind Advisory out for zone 216 northeast of Galena. Temperatures a bit warmer today, then slightly cooler the remainder of the week. Central and Eastern Interior...Bands of clouds moving through today then cloudy for most areas this evening as the front stalls over the southeast interior. Some periods of snow in the eastern Alaska Range and upper Tanana Valley this evening and overnight with accumulations generally around an inch. A few flurries may make it into the Central Interior and Upper Yukon Valley, but no significant accumulations are expected. Leeside troughing develops tonight so gap flow winds increasing in the passes with gusts to 45 mph in passes west of the Tok Cutoff and east of the Parks Highway. Temperatures cooling a bit the next couple days. Winds a bit stronger than normal in the interior today will be diminishing tonight. Gusty winds over some of the higher elevation areas north of Fairbanks will remain strong today and diminish this evening so will keep Wind Advisory in place for zone 219. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ216-AKZ219. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204. Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235. && $$ SDB APR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 041125 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 325 AM AKDT Tue Apr 4 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Big picture agreement remains good through around day 4 before diverging. 04/00Z runs initialized well at 04/06Z against the surface analysis. Model output temperatures continue to be all over and generally way too cold so will maintain continuity in temperatures by using previous day and current forecast database as a starting point, then make only minor adjustments. No expecting much precipitation with the system moving north into the state today, so will lean toward the SREF solution for precipitation the first 48 hours. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Pattern aloft has settled down a bit with ridging extending west across the interior, A 531 dam high 200 nm northeast of Point Barrow, a dissipating 519 dam low over St Lawrence Island, and a 506 dam low 250 nm south of Kodiak City this morning. Everything remains fairly stagnant today with the high over the arctic building to 535 dam, the ridging over interior Alaska rotates to the northeast and weakens, the low near Kodiak Island weakens to 510 dam, a 517 dam low develops in the northeast Pacific and moves to 300 nm west of the Queen Charlotte Islands, and the low in the Bering Strait dissipates. By Wednesday afternoon the high over the arctic remains 200 nm northeast of Barrow at 536 dam, the ridging over interior Alaska hangs up over the northeast corner of the state, and the lows near the Gulf of Alaska merge with a 511 dam center 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island. A fairly strong shortwave will move over the southeast panhandle Tuesday night and lie from Yakutat east, moving to lie from Seward to Fairbanks Wednesday evening as it rotates around the low, and over the west coast by Thursday morning. At 850 hpa...Temperatures warming a bit the next 24 hours, then cooling Wednesday night a few degrees, then remain relatively flat through the remainder of the week. Surface...Weak troughing over the state with main axis southwest to northeast across the state and a secondary trough over the west coast. High pressure with ridging extending west remains over the eastern arctic with a 1026 mb center 400 nm north of Kaktovik. The high will drift east into Canadian waters through Tuesday then stall 300 nm north of Banks Island Thursday, then drift south to Banks Island Saturday morning. A 975 mb low 200 nm south of Kodiak City will weaken as a 969 mb low moves from the northeast Pacific to 300 nm west of Prince of Wales Island late this evening and absorbs the low near Kodiak. The low then move northwest into the southern Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday morning, and to 200 nm southeast of Kodiak City late Wednesday at 970 mb. A weather front will move over the southeast panhandle Wednesday and push over the southeast interior Wednesday evening, then stalls as it moves over the Alaska range. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Patchy stratus continues to be a bother, especially with the Aviation forecasts. NPP-VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB imagery from 03/2222Z indicates there is more making its way around the base of the ridge that will impact he area today and tonight. Not expecting any significant snow with the stratus, but a few flurries may fall. The ridge continues to build and leeside troughing is developing over the arctic plain so the gradient over the eastern arctic coast is starting to tighten up a bit. Winds already east around 20 mph gusting to 30 mph will increase to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph and blowing snow and fog will reduce visibility to around 1/4 mile so will issue winter weather advisory for zone 204. Zone 203 will also be getting stronger winds, but expect visibility will generally be above 1/2 mile in blowing snow so will hold off on any advisory for now. Temperatures steady or slowly warming through the week. West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy for most areas today, but generally dry. With the weak trough over the area there may be a few showers over the lower Yukon Delta, and in the Bering Strait. Winds generally north to northeast with the strongest winds on the outer Capes and St Lawrence Island at 15 to 25 mph. Winds 10 to 20 mph for the remainder of the coastal areas, and 5 to 15 mph for the inland areas. Temperatures a bit warmer today, then slightly cooler the remainder of the week. Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy across the area today, but not expecting any precipitation as the front moves over the state. Temperatures slightly warmer today in spite of the clouds as some warm air works north into the interior, then a couple degrees cooler through Friday. Winds generally east and picking up a bit across the interior to 10 to 25 mph for most areas. There is a slight chance of snow in the eastern Alaska range and Eastern Interior Wednesday night as the decaying front moves to lie from Talkeetna to Eagle before breaking up. A gap flow wind event in the eastern Alaska Range is setting up for Thursday morning with south winds gusting around 45 mph. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204. Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235. && $$ SDB APR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 031140 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 340 AM AKDT Mon Apr 3 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Big picture agreement is good through around 78 hours, after that they get very confused. 03/00Z runs initialized well at 03/06Z against the surface analysis. Model output temperatures continue to be all over with most of them being too cold. Best continuity seems to be using the previous day temperatures and just making minor adjustments as models do not seem to be handling the snow cover internally. Best precipitation guidance appears to be the SREF for the first 48 hours. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A pretty muddy pattern aloft. Weak ridging remains overhead with a weak shortwave moving north across most of the forecast area this morning and merge with a trough over the eastern arctic coast that will slowly pull out to the east through Tuesday evening. A 529 dam High over Point Barrow will move northeast to 200 north of Deadhorse by Tuesday morning at 532 dam, then remain stationary through Thursday morning as it builds to 537 dam. The shortwave moving north this morning is associated with a 520 dam low over Nunivak Island that will weaken and dissipate over St Lawrence Island tonight. A 507 dam low in the northeast Pacific will move north over the Semidi Island near Chignik by Tuesday afternoon at 512 dam. A second low will develop in the northeast Pacific and swing north over the southern Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday morning then the lows merge just south of Kodiak Island. As mentioned above, beyond this the pattern is pretty confused. At 850 hpa...Temperatures flat to slightly warming next 24 hours, then a decent warmup of around 5 Degrees celsius Wednesday, and once again the models are pretty confused beyond that, but they should be flat to slightly warming. Surface...Front remains across the state and is slowly drifting north today and will dissipate later today and tonight. 1024 mb high 400 nm north of Deadhorse will drift east over the Beaufort Sea to 200 nm northwest of Banks Island as it builds to 1030 mb Tuesday morning, then slowly drifts northeast through Thursday. A 1003 mb low near Nunivak Island will dissipate late this morning. A 970 mb low in the northeast Pacific will move to just south of Kodiak Island Tuesday morning at 979 mb, while a 972 mb low will move out of the northeast Pacific and swing north to the southern Gulf of Alaska by Wednesday morning as it absorbs the low near Kodiak Island. A weak trough will persist over the west coast through the week, with a weak trough developing over the arctic plains and coast Tuesday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Some patchy stratus being pulled south around the base of the high over the arctic is bringing some low ceilings and areas of fog to the coastal areas east of Wainwright this morning. Stratus appears to be breaking up with time on the available NPP-VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics RGB imagery. Expect some light snow or flurries with the stratus, but it will be hard to track as it breaks up. Some light snow in the eastern Brooks Range as the front slowly drags east into Canada, but not looking for significant accumulations. Northeast to east winds will continue across at 5 to 20 mph with the strongest winds over the northwest coast and winds increasing over the eastern arctic coast this afternoon. Temperatures slowly warming across the area through the week. West Coast and Western Interior...Front over the area has moved north over the Seward Peninsula and Kotzebue Sound, and is dissipating rather rapidly. Some lingering snow showers north of Nome this morning, then slight clearing across the area this afternoon. No significant snow or rainfall is expected today. Starting to see some patchy fog reported across the area as well, and that will dissipate later this morning. Temperatures a bit cooler today, then warming slowly the remainder of the week. Winds generally light, except over the capes from the Bering Strait south where winds will be in the 15 to 25 mph range out of the northeast. Central and Eastern Interior...From the Yukon River north, mostly cloudy with some lingering snow showers today that will end late this evening as the front dissipates. To the south some clearing so more sunny than cloudy today. Temperatures generally the same as Sunday or maybe a couple degrees warmer depending on how much sunshine. Winds still gusty in the Alaska Range passes, but they will continue to diminish today, but expect another gap flow wind event Thursday as leeside trough sets up. Extended forecast for days 4 to 8...Generally dry pattern developing north of the Alaska range with high pressure over the arctic and low pressure south of the Alaska Range leaving a weak easterly flow over the central part of the state. Temperatures slowly warming as the low to the south will continue to push warmer air north with increased potential for gap flow winds as leeside troughing develops. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB APR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 242131 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 131 PM AKDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Big changes in guidance since yesterdays (23/12Z) solutions. Short term guidance remains similar to yesterday, but beyond Sunday there are big changes as they spin some precipitation north into the central and eastern interior. The GFS is much more aggressive at this time in bringing the snow into the area and keeping it around. Big picture the models are still reorienting the longwave trough over the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea midweek. The 24/12Z solutions initialized well with the 24/18Z surface analysis. Precipitation guidance continues to be lacking with the GFS providing too much coverage in the short term. The SREF solution has been performing well with the precipitation the last week so we will continue to use it for the first 48 hours. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Long wave trough persists over the eastern half of the state through Saturday then starts retrograding to the west, but not as far as previous solutions, and will settle over the west coast/western interior midweek. A 481 dam low near 80N 180 will move east to 80N 140W by Sunday morning, then southeast to Banks Island by Monday night. A shortwave associated with the low will move over the western arctic Saturday afternoon and continues east across the arctic over Canadian waters by Monday morning. A 515 dam low will develop over the Copper River Basin Saturday morning and slowly drift southeast to be over Cook Inlet by Monday morning at 513 dam, then moves west. Ridging over the eastern Bering Sea will persist into Sunday, then the 533 dam high over the central Bering Sea is cutoff from the north Pacific ridge and drifts west. A weak ridge with 518 dam heights will build over the Chukchi Sea late Sunday and move east over the arctic coast to MacKenzie Bay by Tuesday morning. At 850 hpa...Weak warm air advection continues, with temperatures around -15 warming to around -10 by Wednesday. Surface...Ridging persists from Siberia over the Chukotsk Peninsula to the Seward Peninsula and then east over the Brooks Range persists, but will weaken tonight. A 993 mb low in the high arctic will slowly move east to the high Canadian arctic with a broad area of lower pressure remaining over the arctic east of the dateline. A 1000 mb low will develop in the northern Gulf of Alaska and dissipate Saturday night. A 1024 mb high will develop over Siberia and move over the Chukchi Sea by Sunday morning with ridging extending east over the arctic coast. A 985 mb low will move out of the northeast Pacific Sunday into the southeast Gulf of Alaska and move to the northern Gulf by Tuesday morning as it weakens to 994 mb. A 965 mb low south of the western Aleutians will persist with a 978 mb low moving to the central Aleutians by Sunday morning the lows then merging into a single low over the central Aleutians Monday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...High pressure will continue to hold over interior Alaska and this is producing a fairly zonal flow across the arctic through Saturday when a stronger high will develop over the Chukchi Sea and push the low pressure to the east a bit. For tonight flurries or some light snow, but not much accumulation. As the high builds over the Chukchi Sea the flurries will end over the northwest coast and be mainly east of Barrow on Sunday. Winds mainly west at 10 to 20 mph. East of Deadhorse expect some gusty winds to 35 mph at times with blowing snow. West Coast and Western Interior...NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 24/1535Z shows quite a bit of stratus over the Chukchi Sea, Kotzebue Sound, and the eastern Bering Sea. Does not appear to be dissipating very fast under the ridge, so not expecting much change tonight. A few flurries and periods of stratus and fog for the coastal areas, but difficult to say just where the stratus will be of significant impact. Do not expect any snow accumulation. Winds 5 to 15 mph from the northeast to east and that may help push the stratus offshore south of the Bering Strait, while creating problems north of the Bering Strait along the Seward Peninsula coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Mainly clear with the exception of the upper Tanana Valley where it will be mostly cloudy with some light snow or a few flurries through late Saturday before ending. No significant accumulation is expected. Temperatures will continue to be cool at night falling to -10 to -30, then recovering during the day to 10 to 25. Winds will continue to be light and variable. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ230-PKZ235. && $$ SDB MAR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 232036 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1236 PM AKDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Short term guidance continues to handle the big picture well, but as expected they are lacking in the details. Run to run continuity continues to be very good for the short term. The 23/12Z solutions initialized well with the 23/18Z surface analysis. Precipitation is one of the details that is lacking in most model solutions, but the short term SREF seems to be best at handling it so will use it the first 48 hours. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Long wave trough persists over the eastern half of the state through the weekend, then starts reorienting to the west and eventually settles over the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea late next week. A 518 dam low over Prince William Sound will merge into the trough this evening. Ridging over the Bering Sea will remain in place with a 540 dam center developing over the Pribilofs Friday afternoon. The ridge will weaken and move west Monday. A 480 dam low near 80N 180 will move east to 80N 140W by Sunday morning, then southeast over Banks Island by Wednesday morning. A shortwave associated with the low lies over the Chukchi Sea and will move east and merge into the longwave trough. A second shortwave associated with the low will swing around the low over the western Bering sea Saturday night and move east across the arctic Sunday. At 850 hpa...Temperatures pretty steady over the forecast area around -15, but will start warming Monday and they will slowly rise through the week to near zero by the end of the week. Surface...Ridging extends from Siberia over the Chukotsk Peninsula to the Seward Peninsula and then east over the Brooks Range will persist and expand to the southeast over the interior tonight, then persist through the weekend. A 1003 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska will move near Yakutat and dissipate as a 994 mb low move to the Queen Charlotte Island, then moves north over the southeast panhandle, weakens, and dissipates. A 100 mb low will develop over Prince William Sound Saturday morning and move southwest and dissipate. A 985 mb low will move out of the northeast Pacific Sunday into the southeast Gulf of Alaska and move to the northern Gulf by Tuesday morning as it weakens to 994 mb. A 965 mb low south of the western Aleutians will persist with a 978 mb low moving to the central Aleutians by Sunday morning the lows then merging into a single low over the central Aleutians Monday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...High pressure continue to hold over interior Alaska and this is producing a fairly zonal flow across the arctic with a more active pattern. Weak fronts will continue to move east through the area spreading periods of clouds and snow across the area. Winds generally west at 10 to 20 mph, although a few areas will see winds gusting to around 35 mph with some blowing snow. West Coast and Western Interior...NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 23/1554Z shows quite a bit of stratus over the Chukchi Sea and eastern Bering Sea associated with a decaying front that moved into the area spreading a few flurries to the area. The stratus should dissipate over the next 24 hour as it moves under the ridge. Winds generally light and variable, the exceptions will be the outer Capes where winds will be around 20 mph. Central and Eastern Interior...A repeat of the last few days as some of the models continue to try and swing precipitation north into the central interior. Ridge is strong enough that it will keep precipitation to the southeast of Delta Junction, and south of Eagle, with just some clouds making in into the central interior and the upper Yukon Valley. Temperatures will continue to be dependent on cloud cover, so areas with clouds will be warmer at night, but forecast will lean toward the colder solutions. Wind will be light and variable for most areas. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 182020 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1220 PM AKDT Sat Mar 18 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Not seeing much change as the continue to show Good agreement through around 96 hours before diverging. Will use a blend early, then lean toward the GFS for the extended periods. The surface guidance initialized well against the 18/18Z analysis. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Long wave trough will remain over the eastern half of the state through the week with ridging over the eastern Bering Sea. A 520 dam low over the Copper River Basin will drift south over the northern Gulf of Alaska at 515 dam then dissipate Monday. A shortwave over Siberia will move across the Chukchi Sea Sunday, then dives into the trough Monday. The high amplitude ridging over the Eastern Aleutians and Central Bering Sea persists with a 544 dam center moving over the Pribilofs by Monday afternoon. At 850 hpa...Temperatures steady today, then warming a degree or two Sunday night, then falling a couple degrees Monday and remaining fairly steady the remainder of the week. Surface...Might sound like a broken record, but ridging persists over most of mainland Alaska with the main axis lying from the Chukotsk Peninsula over the Brooks Range and into the Northwest Territories Canada. Ridging will build south over the Eastern Bering Sea through Sunday. A 1024 mb centers will be over St Lawrence Island and the central Brooks Range by Sunday morning. A 1014 mb low will develop near Wrangel Island tonight and move across the Chukchi Sea Sunday, dissipating over the Chukchi Sea coast late Sunday. A 998 mb low will develop near 80N 180 Sunday night and move east across the arctic Monday. The high over St Lawrence Island will continue to build to 1031 mb with ridging expanding to the east and a 1028 mb center developing over the western Brooks Range Tuesday. A 998 mb low in the northern Gulf of Alaska will persist, but weaken. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...With the exception of the front that will move to then northwest coast and spread some light snow or flurries from point Barrow west Sunday, it will be pretty quiet in the arctic through Monday. A second front will dive south and make a glancing blow from Point Barrow east Monday night and Tuesday bringing some light snow or flurries. Winds continue to be relatively light for most areas, mainly southwest to 10 mph. Expect them to pick up a bit as the weather fronts move into the area, but mainly less than 20 mph through Monday. The NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB product at 18/1548Z shows a good band of stratus over the Chukchi Sea that is slowly making its way east, but it is being held off by the ridge will make its way to the coast early Sunday spreading low clouds over the area. West Coast and Western Interior...Some Flurries on the Chukchi Sea coast and Bering Strait coast as weak front moves east into the area. No significant accumulation expected. Winds generally light as high pressure builds over the area. Central and Eastern Interior...Some stratus over the southeast interior is drifting to the west, but eroding as it works into the interior. Mainly clear otherwise. Winds generally light and variable, but during the day locally gusty winds in valleys. Temperatures will be steady or warm a degree or two through midweek. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB MAR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 111154 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 254 AM AKST Sat Mar 11 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Overall performance has been pretty good, lacking a bit in the details, but not too bad. There has been good run to run continuity, but the pattern has been relatively benign the last couple days. Surface initialized well at 11/06Z with only minor differences in the center pressures. There is much better agreement in the midrange with the long wave trough digging south over the central and eastern interior to the Gulf of Alaska starting Sunday night. For short term will use mostly continuity making only minor changes to the temperature and wind grids. Beyond that will use a blend leaning just a bit toward the GFS since is has had a better handle lately. Aloft...At 500 hpa...566 dam center over the central Bering Sea with ridging extending east over Anvik to Tanana to Old Crow YT this morning. This is allowing a relatively fast flow around the base of the low in the high arctic with a shortwave moving east over the arctic coast today. The shortwave will strengthen a bit as it interacts with a col over the central and eastern interior as it continues to move east. Ridging will build back to the east over the interior after the shortwave moves through. Zonal flow will continue over the arctic with several shortwaves moving through the flow and east over the arctic coast through Sunday. The longwave trough will dig hard to the south Monday and the flow will become northwest with the shortwaves moving over the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound. At 850 hpa...Temperatures around -10C, but the will trend down starting Monday with a return to -20C to -25C by Tuesday night persisting through the remainder of the week. Surface...1035 mb ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea moves to the north central Bering Sea today and settles over the Gulf of Anadyr tonight and persists in the area through Monday. Ridging over the eastern interior with a 1040 mb center over the Yukon Territory will move east as troughing develops over the central and eastern interior that will persist into midweek. A 990 mb low in the northeast Pacific will move to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Sunday night and into the northern Gulf by Monday afternoon. Easterly flow will develop over the southeast interior bringing moisture into the area and good potential for overrunning snow to develop in the central and eastern interior. In the arctic a 972 mb low in the high arctic will persist spinning waves east across the arctic through the Wednesday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Active pattern will continue into the new week as low in the high arctic will spin several waves over the arctic that will bring periods of snow to the area. Some patchy freezing drizzle will occur today. Winds will be relatively tame the next few days. Winds will be west at 10 to 25 mph with just some local blowing snow. Temperatures will cool off the next few days with highs falling to around zero and lows in the teens below for much of the coastal area. Cooler temperatures can be expected inland. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear in the inland areas and over the lower Yukon Delta. Stratus north of the surface ridge axis continues to impact areas and can be clearly seen on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hr Microphysics RGB product at 11/0059, and the GOES MVFR Probability Product shows it covers and extensive area over the eastern Bering Sea, west coast, and Kotzebue Sound. There is some snow being reported with the stratus in some of the coastal areas, but only minor accumulations are expected. Also, some patchy freezing drizzle on the Bering Strait coast and Chukchi Sea coast around Point Hope. Winds on the west coast will generally be light with a few exceptions in channeled areas where winds gusting to 25 mph can be expected. Temperatures a bit warmer through Sunday, then a cooling trend. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy again today. Flurries coming to an end in most areas this morning, then another round of light snow or flurries tonight as an upper level wave moves through the area. Not expecting much accumulation. Sunday will bring some clearing skies. For Monday expecting that overrunning snow to develop, so expect light snow moving in from the east during the day Monday with a couple inches possible. Winds generally light with the exception of the Delta Junction area where winds will be gusty to around 20 mph today. Highs in the teens to lower 20s for most areas with lows zero to 10 below. Extended outlook...Models are indicating more cold air moving over the state starting next Tuesday and a return to temperatures well below normal for March. Latest model runs indicate 850 hpa temperatures around -20C, and that would produce surface temperatures of -25F to -35F, but cloudy conditions over the interior are looking more likely, so lows will likely be in -10F to -25F range. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Rain Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207- AKZ213. && $$ SDB MAR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 231025 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 425 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 .NEAR TERM...(Today) Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 Moisture advection and shallow isentropic ascent has led to low stratus development around 1.5 to 2.5 kft this morning in eastern areas, generally from Franklin County (TN) southward through much of Jackson and DeKalb Counties. Patchy fog had developed by late in the evening as indicated by several observation sites, however MODIS/VIIRS RGB satellite images have shown that the fog is very limited in coverage and largely located in narrow valleys adjacent to the plateau. Since the low stratus has developed and moved across the area, some, if not most, of this valley fog has dissipated. Elsewhere, patchy fog was present along/near the TN River channel around Wheeler/Wilson Lakes and nearby low-lying communities. Nevertheless, the fog does not appear to be sufficiently dense or widespread to warrant a dense fog advisory at this time. Temperatures have fallen into the mid to upper 50s at most locations early this morning, and will remain near stationary until sunrise. Any remaining fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise this morning. The low stratus currently in the east and in areas to our south will gradually spread farther westward, perhaps into the Huntsville/Decatur metro area later this morning. However, this cloud deck will tend to disperse during the afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon are likely to reach the low/mid 70s for most locations. The most likely adjustments made to the forecast later may be to address issues with cloud cover and impacts to temps though, since the timing of dissipation and extent of the low cloud deck remains a little uncertain. .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 A broad, partially closed upper low currently in the Western CONUS will move into the Plains states as it phases with a northern stream trough in central Canada tonight and Friday. In response, a surface low will develop and briefly strengthen along the baroclinic boundary stretching across the Plains and Upper Midwest while a surface cold front moves into the Mississippi Valley region. In the warm sector in advance of this front, temperatures may soar into the upper 70s across many locations in the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures as high as 80 degrees may occur particularly in NW Alabama closer to the main axis of strong temperature advection from the SW. Record high temperatures are likely to fall at some locations on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the advancing front on Friday, but a significant capping inversion centered around 700-800 mb will tend to keep development at bay in our area until late in the day. To our north, where better instability and dynamical forcing will be present, thunderstorm development is expected to occur earlier. Showers and storms are expected to then develop gradually southward along and ahead of the cold front as it moves across the area Friday evening. So, the best chances for shower/thunderstorm activity will be in the north. CAPE values may reach ~1000 J/KG while deep layer shear in the vicinity of ~50 kts suggests some storm organization will be possible. Sounding profiles suggest "thin" CAPE up through 700 mb, with most of the CAPE above 700 mb to the EL, and dry mid-level conditions with a relatively moist boundary layer. The threat for damaging winds and large hail will be present, but is marginal. Looping hodographs, marginally high effective inflow helicity, and LCLs around 1 km suggest a slight tornado threat during the evening. The threat for strong to severe storms will subside as the cold front moves across the area quickly during the overnight period. Much cooler, but sunny conditions will return for Saturday as a modified Canadian airmass moves into the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017 Medium range guidance from the global models is in agreement that a zonal flow regime in place over the southern CONUS at the beginning of the extended forecast period will become more amplified on Sunday as a 500-mb trough digs southeastward into WA/OR. A shortwave disturbance crossing the southern Rockies late Sunday is forecast to weaken and eject east-northeastward into the upper OH valley by late Monday afternoon, as prevailing flow downstream from the western CONUS trough backs to the southwest. At the surface, the center of a Canadian surface high will be located across the TN valley on Sunday morning providing ingredients for strong radiational cooling. After morning lows in the u20s/l30s, highs will rebound into the u50s/l60s as the ridge shifts eastward off the Atlantic coast and southeasterly winds strengthen. Return flow will continue to increase Sunday evening, as the southern Rockies disturbance ejects into the Plains and a weak surface low forms near the Red River valley of OK/TX. Strong low-level warm/moist advection east of the low will support widespread showers from the southern Plains into the mid-South region early Monday morning, with this regime expected to impact our forecast area during the day. A few thunderstorms are possible based on amount of elevated CAPE in forecast soundings, but overall instability should be too meager to support a threat for severe convection even with deep-layer shear around 60 knots. The Red River valley surface low will likely begin to degenerate into a baroclinic trough as the parent wave weakens and lifts further into the OH valley late Monday. This boundary may serve as a focal point for additional convection on Monday night/Tuesday, but the influence of this feature should also dissipate with time as the western CONUS longwave begins to push eastward and a new surface low forms in the lee of the central Rockies. Due to uncertainties on where the boundary may lie, we have maintained a chance POP both periods. If clouds and precip are less than anticipated on Tuesday, temperatures could easily be several degrees warmer than values in the current forecast. Convection will likely become fairly widespread to the north/west of the region Tuesday night beneath an intense low-level jet attendant to deepening cyclone ejecting through the Great Lakes and into southern Ontario/Quebec. The trailing cold front is forecast to cross our region Wednesday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the day. Although shear/instability parameters appear favorable for severe storms both Tuesday night and Wednesday, coverage/intensity of frontal convection will be dictated by coverage of precipitation Tuesday night. A cooler/drier airmass of north Pacific origin will be advected into the region in the wake of this front and linger through the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017 Fog is expected to form during the overnight across the area, courtesy of clear skies, light winds, and residual moisture from recent rain. Although some of the fog could become locally dense - especially late tonight, the lowest I went in the TAF was 3/4SM. VFR weather should return shortly after daybreak Thu as an area of high pressure moves east of the region, bringing a SE-S wind in the late morning and afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM...KDW LONG TERM...70/DD AVIATION...RSB For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 231304 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 404 AM AKST Mon Jan 23 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement into the midrange. Initialization well against the 23/06Z surface analysis with the major features within a couple mb of the analysis. Run to run continuity continues to be very good into the extended periods. There continues to be some discrepancy in the run to run temperature outputs as they struggle to handle the clouds and the chinook flow that will be developing. Aloft...At 500 hpa...480 dam low high in the arctic near the dateline yesterday moved west and the long wave trough has shifted west of the dateline. A 504 dam low will over Kotzebue Sound will drift north and merge into the broad area of lower heights over the Siberian arctic. A shortwave over the interior will move northeast out of the state this afternoon. A ridge over the Southeast Bering Sea and Bristol Bay will move over the southwest mainland this afternoon and then lie from Kotzebue Sound to Burwash Landing Yukon Territory late this evening. The ridging will persist over the eastern and southeastern interior through most of the week. A 500 dam low will move over Dutch Harbor this morning, then drift northwest into the central Bering Sea and merge with a 503 dam low. An associated shortwave will lie from the Pribilofs to Yakutat this evening as it moves north up the back of the ridge into the interior early Tuesday morning, and then slide into the Yukon and Beaufort Sea by late evening. A second shortwave will lie from the Pribilofs to Yakutat Wednesday morning as it takes the same track and moves into the interior Wednesday afternoon. At 850 hpa...The 20 below celsius isotherm lies from Old Crow to Gambell this morning as it continues to move north. It will lie north of the Arctic coast, and across the Chukchi Sea to the Gulf of Anadyr by Tuesday morning. Expect the temperature over Fairbanks to rise from around 15 below to near zero by Thursday evening. Surface...1020 mb high over MacKenzie Bay this morning with ridging extending west to the Chukchi Sea will move northeast to Banks Island with ridging moving over the arctic nearshore waters. A 958 mb low over the central Aleutians will move to Dutch Harbor this evening at 968 mb with a second center 300 nm south of Cold Bay. The primary low will drift toward the Pribilofs as it weakens to 974 mb Tuesday morning, while the southern low will move east to 300 nm southwest of Sand Point at 975 mb then drift north and merge with the low nears the Pribilofs Wednesday. Broad cyclonic flow will push over the state with leeside troughing developing north of the Alaska range and over the arctic plain and coast. A 968 mb low 300 nm south of Adak Tuesday morning will move east to 300 nm south of Cold Bay Wednesday morning, then swing northeast to the Shelikof Strait by Thursday, then moves northwest to the lower Yukon Delta by Thursday evening as it absorbs the low that was over the Pribilofs. Gap winds developing in the eastern Alaska Range Tuesday as leeside trough develops in the Tanana Valley, and Tanana Valley jet winds around Delta Junction as high pressure develops over the Yukon Territory. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Will be pretty quiet next 24 hours as weak ridging persists. Some patchy stratus can be seen on the NPP-VIIRS Microphysics products moving around the area but it will be difficult to forecast where it may be an impact. Expect that most of it will stay offshore, so primary impact areas will be the coastal stations. Barrow is currently the only station being impacted and expect that patch to move offshore this morning. Temperatures will be warming slowly through the Tuesday. Winds generally less than 10 mph will be swinging from south to east through the day as the ridging moves offshore. West Coast and Western Interior...Some wind chill issues this morning before the cold air is scoured out of the area by the approaching system. Precipitation will move into the area from the south and spread north through the day to be over the Seward Peninsula and Bering Strait by Tuesday morning, and over the Chukchi Sea by Tuesday evening. Temperatures rising through the remainder of the week. Expect some gusty winds to around 40 mph in the lower Yukon Delta and Norton Sound regions, otherwise winds northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph. Central and Eastern Interior...Clearing today, then increasing clouds overnight as a decaying weather front moves across the area. Some flurries in the Tanana Valley early Tuesday as the front moves north across the area with light snow developing mainly north of the Yukon River by afternoon. Chinook flow developing tonight will help scour out the cold air in the interior so look for temperatures to be on the rise with many areas south of the Yukon River seeing above zero temperatures. Expect gusting south winds in the Alaska Range passes with gusts to around 45 mph. Around Delta Junction Tanana Valley jet will kick winds up with east winds gusting to around 40 mph. The remainder of the area will have northeast to east winds at 5 to 15 mph with some local gusts to 25 mph. Over summits along the Dalton and Elliott Highways winds increase this afternoon and evening to around 35 mph so will issue Winter Weather Advisories for blowing snow on the highways. && Coastal Hazards Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ221. Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210. && $$ AFD JAN 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 211344 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 444 AM AKST Sat Jan 21 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Big picture they initialized well on positioning, but about 4 mb low on the ridge to the east at 21/06Z. There is concensus on cold air diving into the area behind the light snow/flurries this morning as it clears. The question is just how cold it will get and the models are several degrees apart on that but they have similar timing. They stay instep through around 96 hours before the shortwaves really get messy. Aloft...At 500 hpa...488 dam low 100 nm northeast of Point Barrow anchors the long wave trough and will move north to 80N later this morning. A shortwave will lie over Cape Halkett to the lower Yukon Delta this morning, and over the Beaufort Sea and AlCan border south to the Porcupine River this afternoon. Troughing will persist over the West Coast and Western Interior as a 500 dam low near St Lawrence Island will move over Nunivak Island this afternoon, and over Kodiak City by Sunday morning. Ridging will persist over the areas south of the Porcupine River and east of Tanana through Sunday. The low over Kodiak City will fill and an associated shortwave will push northeast into the ridge and lie from Ambler to Cordova late Sunday and continue northeast moving into Canada and the eastern arctic Monday evening. A ridge over the central Aleutians today will move over the eastern Bering Sea south of St Matthew Island by Sunday afternoon, and over the mainland south of the Tanana River by Monday morning. A 500 dam low will develop over Kotzebue Sound Sunday afternoon. A 497 dam low will move to the Central Aleutians by Monday morning. At 850 hpa...The 20 below isotherm will move southeast to lie from Old Crow to Delta Junction then southwest this morning and stalls, then starts moving back to the northwest Sunday. Surface...Slowly moving front is inching its way east across the interior this morning but expect it will stall over the central interior as the surface ridge pushes back to the west today. Otherwise Ridging will persist over much of the state with a 1025 mb high center over the Yukon Territory persisting in some form, and 1028 mb high persisting over Siberia. A Cold front associated with the 990 mb low high in the arctic has moved to the northwest coast and will make a glancing blow over the coast as it moves northeast. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front makes a glancing blow over the area and will spread some light snow or flurries to the coastal areas today. Wind chill is still an issue and that will continue into the evening when winds diminish. Expect temperatures to fall a couple degrees as more cold air filters in from the northwest. NPP VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product showing stratus over most of the arctic moving around the low and that matches up with what can be seen on the GOES products this morning. Winds continue at 10 to 15 mph from the southwest today and diminish this evening to less than 10 mph. West Coast and Western Interior...Not much going on out here, a weak low has developed over Kotzebue Sound and stratus had developed and is spreading flurries over the region. Expect a few clouds to move south over the coast today, but flurries should remain north of the Seward Peninsula. A few clouds will also make it into the upper Noatak and Kobuk Valleys, but again not expecting any significant snow. The Western Interior and lower Yukon Delta will remain virtually cloud free today and tonight so expect temperatures to remain very cold with some -50 temperatures possible today and tonight. Temperatures will start warming late Sunday. No significant winds. Central and Eastern Interior...Pretty tricky forecast. The decaying front/convergence zone will not be moving very much, so hard to determine which areas will clear and which will stay cloudy. Expect the flurries to taper back a bit, but there is a constant feed of moisture from Cook Inlet north into the interior through this evening. Still expect clouds to hang around between Manley Hot Springs to Eagle. From Tanana to Allakaket to Bettles to Coldfoot expect temperatures to fall to near 50 below. Lows in the Upper Tanana Valley will be in the 40s below. Most other areas will see temperatures fall into the 30s below. Winds generally light. && Coastal Hazards Days 3 and 4...none. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ204-AKZ205. Wind Chill Warning for AKZ203. && $$ SDB JAN 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPIH 161000 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 300 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. Forecast is status quo for today and tomorrow as upper ridging keeps things quiet for us. Low-level stratus should remain present in the valleys, and is depicted this morning on VIIRS spectral imagery over the Eastern Magic Valley. Temperature profile supports ice nucleation within the stratus layer, and is resulting in light flurries in some areas. This should end late this morning. The upper ridge will pass Tuesday night opening us up to increasing moisture transport from the Pacific. Models are a bit out of sync with the timing of the onset of precipitation, but generally the best chances will be Wednesday afternoon. Models are suggesting a warm layer developing over the Eastern Magic Valley possibly extending to Pocatello throughout the day Wednesday. Temperature profiles support the potential for freezing rain during this period. Low to moderate confidence levels for freezing rain at this time. Snow accumulation will begin for the Central Mountains Wednesday afternoon, and we have better confidence on snow intensity, though timing may vary over the course of the next few model runs. Hinsberger LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday. Medium range models in good agreement this cycle. Amplified shortwave trough deepens across PacNW and intermountain region during the day Thursday, spreading precipitation across Idaho. Weak cold front slides across Idaho, with temp profiles supportive of snow all areas. Break break Thursday night behind front. Models start to diverge somewhat with southern stream supporting faster shortwave feature undercutting slower and slightly retrograding northern stream. Thus weakest confidence in precipitation, with both GFS and ECMWF in relative dry but cooler period Friday through Sunday. Flow consolidates over Pacific again with deep trough off west coast. Both models, with some agreement with GFS ensembles, indicating next significant feature rotating around trough to reach coast and spread inland by Monday. Details remain fuzzy thus kept to broadbrush blend late in the period. DMH && .AVIATION...IFR conditions in place early this morning in region stretching from KIDA to west of KBYI, and including many valleys south of the Snake River. Stratus layer lies within favored temp zone for snow, and seeing light snow continue in some locations so will keep temp conditions for snow going until after sunrise. Ridge remains intact with inversions so will keep persistent forecast with brief afternoon improvement to VFR then a return to marginal or worse conditions after sunset as inversions strengthen and stratus/fog return for overnight. DMH && .HYDROLOGY... All current flood headlines remain in place this morning: An Areal Flood Advisory will remain in effect for Cassia and southern Minidoka county through the weekend. Floodwaters on roads has frozen over and several county roads remain closed. A Flood Warning continues at Antelope Creek in Darlington due to an ice jam on this creek along with runoff from early-week rainfall and snowmelt has resulted in some homes being flooded in Darlington. The Flood Advisory for the Challis River Bridge south of Challis will continue at the request of the BLM and local law enforcement. Citizens are urged to avoid this area. Dry conditions remain forecast through Tuesday. Frozen flooded areas continue to pose a threat to drivers. Ice jams will remain a threat with sub-zero lows in many areas through Tuesday morning, and ice build-up already present in many river channels. Another storm system arrives mid week. This system is expected to bring a warm-up to near or just above freezing to Cassia, Minidoka, Power and Oneida counties, where frozen flooded areas exist. At least partial melting of these areas is possible, along with the added concerns of additional precipitation which could fall as rain in lower elevations. Current headlines are expected to be evaluated again during daylight hours, in consultation with emergency management officials. DMH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 111339 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 339 AM HST Wed Jan 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Daytime sea breezes and nighttime land breezes will continue through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A front will stall northwest of the state late tonight and Thursday, bringing increasing showers to Kauai, and higher humidity to the rest of the islands. Volcanic haze, or vog, will affect most areas through Saturday. Trade winds should gradually return to the islands early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry conditions prevail across the state on this early Wednesday morning. Radar shows only isolated light showers over the central coastal waters, and rain gauges around the state report almost no rainfall during the past 6 hours. Surface analysis depicts a high pressure ridge just north of Kauai, with a dissipating front to the north of the ridge. Light east to southeast synoptic winds prevail over the state to the south of the ridge, with land breezes prevailing over the islands. Aloft, a weak upper level trough just west of the state is generating scattered to broken cirrus cloudiness over the central and eastern islands. The 12Z soundings show a dry and stable atmosphere remaining in place, with PW values just over one inch and strong inversions based near 5000 feet. MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery also shows a similarly dry airmass over the state, with somewhat greater moisture over the waters to the south through west of Kauai. A rather stagnant pattern is forecast to prevail over the state through the next several days. Persistent mid level ridging to the east and south of the islands will prevent frontal systems from moving through the state, while a nearby surface ridge axis will maintain light background winds with land and sea breeze circulations dominating. The next front, currently about 800 miles northwest of Kauai, will approach the region today, then stall about 300 miles northwest of Kauai late tonight and Thursday. Increased shower activity due to pre-frontal convergence may affect Kauai tonight and Thursday, otherwise mainly dry conditions should continue. Weaker inversions over Oahu and possibly into Maui County may allow for a bit more afternoon shower activity along seabreezes Thursday afternoon. The dissipating front will linger northwest of Kauai on Friday, then retreat back northward during the weekend. The surface ridge axis will move slowly northward as well, with trade winds edging back into at least eastern parts of the state by Sunday afternoon. Generally dry and mild weather will continue during the weekend, as another weak front passes north of the state. Heading into next week, models show a building mid level ridge over the islands, with the surface ridge axis gradually easing further north and rather dry trade winds building across the state. Longer range models show the next front stalling far to the northwest of Kauai early next week. Volcanic haze, or vog, will remain over the state through Saturday. Light southeast flow will push volcanic emissions from Kilauea on the southeast side of the Big Island to many areas across the state. Returning trade winds should gradually clear the vog out early next week. && .AVIATION... A VIIRS Day/Night band pass over Hawaii early this morning showed relatively quiet conditions with broken low clouds over the south shore of Oahu and from Hilo south through the Kau district on the Big Island. Observations from PHNL and PHTO show the bases remaining well within VFR criteria. Elsewhere, land breezes have cleared most low level clouds from the islands. An upper level trough moving from west to east across the island chain continues to produce scattered to broken cirrus from Oahu to the Big Island. Cirrus should push off east of the islands by this afternoon. The light southeast background flow will veer more south today, mainly near the western islands, as an approaching front pushes the ridge across the islands. However, the background flow will remain light enough to allow for the development of sea breezes. Clouds and showers will favor the interior land areas today, although any showers should remain brief under the dry and stable atmosphere. Expect VFR conditions to prevail. The background southeast and south flow has also helped carry the volcanic emission north over the smaller islands, and creating hazy skies. The approaching front will start to introduce a bit more moisture and a rise in the inversion level near Kauai as early as this evening. && .MARINE... A very active pattern across the northwest Pacific will correspond to a few periods with surf exceeding the 25 ft (face value) warning- level threshold along the exposed northern and western shores of the Hawaiian Islands within the upcoming five to 10 days. The first episode will likely fill in Friday (possibly as early as daybreak Friday for Kauai) and hold into Friday night before easing through the weekend and into early next week. A second round will become a possibility next week at some point between late Tuesday and Thursday (timing and magnitude remain uncertain this far out for this event due to model differences and the potential for large changes over the coming days). The latest surface analysis supported this potential and showed a storm-force low (987 mb) centered around 1500 nautical miles northwest of the islands and a developing gale to its west a few hundred miles east of Japan. A recent ASCAT pass reflected these features and showed a large batch of gale-to-storm (40 to 50 kt) force winds out of the west-northwest south of this low aimed at the islands. The latest ensemble and deterministic model guidance have initialized well with this evolving pattern and depict these features tracking toward the east-northeast across the Date Line over the Date Line today, then to a position south-southwest of Kodiak Thursday through Friday. The wave model guidance is now in good agreement with the timing and magnitude and depict a peak Friday through Friday night here in the islands. Peak locations will likely see surf well above the warning level (25 ft faces) through this time Friday, then down to advisory-levels through the day Saturday before easing further. A smaller northwest swell will fill in later today and hold through Thursday. This source should remain just below the advisory level through this period along the exposed northern and western shores. However, the outlier is the ECMWF-WAVE guidance, which depicts a slightly larger solution through this time that could correspond to surf heights nearing the advisory mark (15 ft) by tonight. A north-northeast swell associated with a recent system in the Gulf of Alaska is expected to correspond to peak surf along north and east facing shores through the day today at levels just below the advisory mark of eight ft along the eastern shores. This source will then ease through the rest of the week. Small surf associated with a long-period southerly swell will be expected through Friday along the southern shores of the islands due to recent activity over the southern Pacific. Local winds are forecast to remain light through the upcoming weekend with land ans sea breezes each day as a ridge of high pressure remains over the islands. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast to return by the mid-week period next week as high pressure builds north of the state. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jacobson AVIATION...Eaton MARINE...Gibbs  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 031115 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 415 AM MST Tue Jan 3 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Generally quiet weather will prevail over most of northern New Mexico through Wednesday afternoon as northwest flow will dominate the region. Windy conditions are expected along the Central Mountain chain today with the strongest winds along the highest peaks. Winds will decrease tonight before increasing again on Thursday. A Pacific storm system will push into New Mexico starting Thursday night into Friday, bringing breezy conditions back to parts of the state with mountain snow and valley rain. && .DISCUSSION... Fairly quiet weather will persist through Thursday as northwest flow will continue over the region. Winds will remain elevated today along higher terrain with some of the higher peaks seeing gusts into the 40-50 mph range. Areal coverage of these winds was not widespread enough to warrant a Wind Advisory, but left the gust wording in the products. Some areas of light snow, mainly orographically driven, are expected over the north central mountains. Finally, some low clouds and fog will persist through mid-morning over the far northeast areas of the state. This area of low stratus and fog is showing up nicely on NASA SPoRT nighttime microphysics imagery from the NPP-VIIRS satellite and is verified by surface observations. This area may slide further south this morning into the KTCC area as the backdoor front will try to slide southward. The big change will be Thursday night into Friday as the upper low parked over the Pacific NW will slide southeastward and push through NM. The latest upper air data indicate that there is a very cold pool of temperatures aloft with this airmass with 00Z RAOB temps at 500mb in the -39 to -40 C range over Eastern WA and MT. As this cold airmass slides southward, a slug of moisture will move ahead of the system. The combination of the two will provide another shot at mountain snow and valley rain for the region starting Thursday night and tapering off late in the day Friday. This package is slightly less on snow amounts than the previous package, mainly due to minor differences in the QPF. US models are starting to trend toward the EC solution, which has been fairly consistent the last several days with this system. With respect to timing of the precipitation, the 00Z runs have the EC about 6 hours faster on the onset of the precip than the GFS/NAM. There is still some significant disagreement on temperatures with this system, with the EC bringing bitterly cold temperatures to the northeastern corner of NM Thursday morning. The GFS is trending that way, but not nearly as cold. At this time, held off on any major changes to the temps in the extended but later packages will have to likely bring forecast temps down over these areas. After this system, the weekend looks fairly quiet with mainly flurries over the northern mountains as zonal flow re-establishes itself over the region. 54/Fontenot && .FIRE WEATHER... High temperatures should fall around 5 to 20 degrees across northeast and east central areas today as a back door cold front sags into the area. The shallow front isn't expected to linger long, with rebounding temperatures expected there Wednesday. Zonal flow aloft will persist until a very positively tilted upper level trough aloft crosses from the northwest with increased precipitation chances and colder temperatures Thursday through Friday. The brisk flow aloft will cause breezy to windy conditions to persist across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains through mid day today. There will be a brief period of weaker winds tonight. Winds are then forecast to restrengthen across the Sangres Wednesday, as well as the northeast and east central highlands, due to stronger winds aloft and a developing lee trough. A moderately strong polar jet stream will cross the forecast area from the west on Thursday as the aforementioned upper level trough moves in from the northwest. This will induce breezy to windy conditions from the Central Mountain Chain westward. The jet will linger over the area Friday, when breezy to windy conditions should favor mountain areas, as well as the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Winds will weaken Friday night as a pronounced cold front drops southward through the state. The GFS is finally starting to catch up to the ECMWF and Canadian models on the Thursday/Friday system, but the ECMWF is still quite a bit cooler than the GFS. A model compromise would yield 700 mb temperatures around -14C from the Sangre de Cristos eastward, which would result in high snow ratios. Confidence is growing on a significant snow event for the northern mountains, where the potential exists for widespread snow accumulations of well over a foot. The northeast highlands and far northwest highlands may also do well with amounts possibly approaching a half foot, and lighter amounts elsewhere across the north. The snow should stay mostly north of I-40 until Friday, when accumulating snow may spread to central and southeast areas as the trough progresses southeastward. A strong back door cold front should produce high temperatures around 15 to 25 degrees below normal across eastern areas on Thursday. A strong Pacific front will also arrive from the northwest Thursday night into Friday with highs below normal areawide Friday and most places still on Saturday. A high pressure system will cross this weekend with drier weather and warming temperatures. Pockets of poor ventilation are expected today and Wednesday, before ventilation improvement with the stronger winds along and west of the central mountain chain on Thursday. However, broad coverage of poor ventilation is expected across the eastern plains with the cold temperatures on Thursday. After ventilation improvement most places Friday, widespread poor ventilation is expected Saturday into early next week. 44 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Patchy MVFR/IFR conditions will affect NW/NC areas during the rest of the overnight hrs. FMN/GUP are the most likely candidates to receive these conditions for at least a brief period. Some SH will impact the mtns and create some mtn top obscurations during the next 24 hrs or so. Wind wont be quite as strong today compared to yesterday. Gusts around 25 kt expected at LVS/TCC. Back door cold front will impact the eastern plains rest of tonight with residual impacts into the day period. Wind speeds are not expected to be too strong with the frontal passage...more of a wind shift. 50 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 44 26 46 31 / 5 10 10 30 Dulce........................... 37 20 39 27 / 20 20 40 60 Cuba............................ 40 23 42 26 / 5 5 10 30 Gallup.......................... 44 25 48 28 / 5 5 0 20 El Morro........................ 43 23 46 26 / 5 5 0 10 Grants.......................... 46 23 50 27 / 0 5 0 10 Quemado......................... 47 26 52 29 / 0 5 0 5 Glenwood........................ 54 32 57 33 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 36 14 37 20 / 30 20 50 70 Los Alamos...................... 41 27 43 30 / 5 5 0 20 Pecos........................... 43 27 45 27 / 5 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 36 17 37 19 / 10 5 20 40 Red River....................... 32 20 33 21 / 10 5 20 50 Angel Fire...................... 36 22 37 24 / 5 5 10 40 Taos............................ 40 20 42 23 / 5 5 10 30 Mora............................ 44 27 45 26 / 0 5 0 20 Espanola........................ 46 25 49 28 / 0 5 0 10 Santa Fe........................ 42 27 44 28 / 5 5 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 45 25 48 26 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 30 50 31 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 31 52 33 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 51 27 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 30 53 32 / 0 5 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 54 26 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 30 52 31 / 0 5 0 5 Socorro......................... 55 31 59 32 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 43 29 46 32 / 0 0 0 5 Tijeras......................... 46 28 48 32 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 24 49 28 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 43 25 47 22 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 47 30 50 31 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 52 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 31 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 39 17 44 9 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 44 17 47 11 / 0 0 0 10 Springer........................ 46 18 50 14 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 50 24 52 19 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 36 15 42 7 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 42 19 47 10 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 50 26 54 18 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 54 32 58 20 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 50 23 55 16 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 23 55 20 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 58 26 56 19 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 57 30 58 21 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 62 31 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 59 32 62 29 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 55 34 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 54  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 011349 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 449 AM AKST Sun Jan 1 2017 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... A large upper level low is over the central and western Bering Sea while a large upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Alaska over the mainland. The front associated with the Bering Sea storm extends along 170W through the Eastern Bering Sea through the Unalaska area to a wave along the front that will cross the eastern Aleutians later this morning. A low formed south of Shemya and is quickly moving to the northeast around the base of the main low. The airmass looks rather convective in the satellite imagery across the Bering Sea west of the front. Between the Bering Sea low and the ridge of high pressure over the mainland is a tight pressure gradient that continues to produce gale force winds along and ahead of the front. Over the mainland under the high pressure, subsidence and radiational cooling is resulting in inversions setting up increasing the likelihood of fog in the valleys. The large high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will also increase the likelihood of fog over the Gulf over the next few days. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in excellent agreement with respect to the synoptic scale features in the short term. The GFS and NAM were used to fine tune the forecast this morning. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. The one area of uncertainty is with respect to fog over the Inlet that could drift over the airfield. At this point it looks unlikely, but is something we will be watching for. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... An impressive inversion is present in the morning sounding, with small dewpoint depressions across the Anchorage Bowl indicating the availability of some surface moisture. However, ASCAT satellite data continues to show persistent offshore flow down Cook Inlet that is currently limiting fog development by mixing much drier air into the boundary layer. The latest VIIRS pass however, does show some fog in sheltered areas of Kenai Peninsula, and it is possible for some additional patchy fog to develop before morning. With an impressive upper level ridge becoming further established across much of mainland Alaska, fog development will remain the main forecast challenge over the next few days. The presence of low level jets across Cook Inlet and also Prince William Sound should limit the intensity and coverage of fog across most of south central Alaska Sunday night as well. However, Monday morning models indicate winds could lighten up enough to allow some fog development. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... A meandering frontal boundary will bring rain and snow to mainly the Kuskokwim Delta through Tuesday. The flow pattern will remain steady state for the time being as a blocking high pressure over the Gulf prevents a north/south oriented front in the Bering Sea from making too much eastward progress. Southerly flow will encompass most of the mainland with the strongest winds along the west coast. The front looks to linger west of Bethel along the coast today and Monday, followed by an enhancement by a couple of shortwave troughs late Monday into Tuesday. There is uncertainty in the forecast in that the front could waggle from west to east across the area, with higher confidence that it will not make it past Bethel due to the blocking high pressure. Rain will be the predominant precipitation type, but some areas of snow remain possible, especially near Hooper Bay and the far western edge of the front that will not be in the warmer southerly flow. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... A frontal boundary will stall over the eastern Bering for the next two days and linger as several disturbances ride overhead. The Pribilof Islands will be right on the western side of the front today, making snow likely. The front will move to the east overnight tonight as high pressure sits over the central Bering Sea. A compact low pressure system is approaching the western Aleutians this morning with gale and possibly some isolated storm force winds. The current track of the system looks to put Shemya in a bullseye for decent accumulating snow. The deformation band is passing right overhead and should linger through the morning. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7/Monday night through Saturday)... An anomalously strong blocking ridge centered over the Gulf of Alaska early next week will retrograde westward as energy rides over the top of it Tuesday and Wednesday. It will then connect up with a separate ridge moving into the Bering Sea Wednesday night, ending up as an equally strong blocking ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea. The primary uncertainty with this pattern is with handling of short-wave moving over the ridge Tuesday/Tuesday night, advecting the remnants of the front along the Southwest coast inland to interior Alaska. With a fairly narrow zone of precipitation along the front, there is some question about where this zone will be as it all heads inland. Elsewhere, there is high confidence in a prolonged dry spell over Southcentral Alaska and Kodiak Island, on the order of 7 days or longer. The air mass underneath the ridge will be quite mild early to mid week, so expect temperatures near or slightly above normal. The wild card will be fog/stratus, which will likely form over the Gulf of Alaska and Cook Inlet regions. This would limit radiational cooling and maintain a very narrow diurnal temperature range. As the ridge becomes repositioned farther west mid to late next week that will open the gates for some arctic air to advect southward into Southcentral, though models continue to differ on the extent of cooling. In any case expect colder temps later in the week along with development of offshore flow and gap winds. Meanwhile, the storm track will remain over the far west, from the northwest Pacific to western Bering Sea, the eastern periphery of systems clipping the western Aleutians. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Gale 165, 170, 172, 177,178, 180, 185, 411, 412, 413, 414. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...Sam SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML LONG TERM...SEB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 071127 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 227 AM AKST Wed Dec 7 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good run to run continuity in the short term and in a general way trend to similar solutions through the extended periods. Initialized well against the 07/06Z surface analysis. Temperature guidance is still lacking as models bounce all over. Will be using a blend of the solutions for all elements except temperatures where a more hands on approach will be used. Aloft...At 500 hpa...a ridge extends from the north Pacific over the central Aleutians to the Gulf of Anadyr the northwest to a 556 dam center over the northwest coast this morning. The ridge remains stationary through Thursday morning as a 558 dam high center separates from the ridge and moves over the western arctic. By Friday morning the ridging over the central Bering Sea remains stationary with ridging extending northwest across the Chukotsk peninsula to the 558 dam center 300 nm north of Point Barrow. The pattern takes more of an omega signature as a 529 dam low develops over Bristol Bay Thursday evening, then moves south, with yet another 529 dam low developing over Bristol Bay in its wake. By Saturday morning the ridging over the arctic takes more of a west to east orientation as the troughing over Bristol Bay pushes west over the Pribilof Islands. At 850 hpa...The Fairbanks upper air sounding had 17.2 celsius below at 3 pm yesterday. This was around 4 degrees cooler than the 3 am observation. Models currently indicate temperatures will remain about the same through Thursday then a slow warming trend through the weekend. Surface...Not much change since yesterday, a 1057 mb high center sits over the Northwest Territories with ridging extending west and south over the forecast area, and will persist into the weekend. A 1012 mb low that was over Kodiak Island yesterday has moved into the western Gulf of Alaska and will remain relatively stationary, then drift southwest before eventually merging with a low in the northeast Pacific. The local gusty winds that occur are really impacting the temperature forecasts, models continue to show some compacted pressure gradients in some of the drainages, and winds are gusting over the summits around the interior to around 30 mph. There are also some indications that the Tanana Valley jet may kick in around Delta Junction and that will also impact temperatures around Delta Junction. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A pesky patch of stratus is easily identified on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT nighttime Microphysics product at 07/0018Z. It extends from about 200 nm north of Point Barrow to point Barrow, then east over the coast to Harrison Bay. The patch is about 100 nm wide in some places and has been lingering in the area for the past 24 hours or so impacting the aviation forecasts. Another small patch is hanging around Nuiqsut impacting that site. Otherwise mostly clear skies will continue. Winds generally east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Low temperatures will range from around 20 below along the coast to around 35 below in some of the coastal plains locations, while highs will range from around 10 below to around 30 below. West Coast and Western Interior...Quiet the next few days. Mostly clear conditions continue. Winds along the coast northeast to southeast at 5 to 15 mph, inland winds will generally be less than 10 mph. Temperatures warmer in the windier locations. Coldest temperatures will be in the middle Yukon Valley with lows around 25 below Thursday morning. Temperatures across the area will be slowly warming starting Thursday afternoon. Central and Eastern Interior...The forecast challenge will be the winds. If they pick up temperatures will be warmer in the windy locations. Areas with light or no winds will generally stay cold. Will forecast worst scenario, but temperatures in some areas could be 20 degrees warmer than forecast again today. The coldest temperatures will continue to be in the upper Yukon Flats. Temperatures across the area will be warmer starting Friday. Some stratus has moved into the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile country south of a line from Eagle to Chicken. Northway has been reporting light snow most of the last 24 hours and that will continue into the afternoon before tapering back to flurries. Accumulation will be less than an inch. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 232158 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1258 PM AKST Wed Nov 23 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Guidance is relatively stable over our forecast area through the extended periods, but to the south of us the models diverge quite a bit moving into the mid range and extended periods. Most active area during the short term continues to be the eastern arctic coast. Initialized well against the 23/18Z surface analysis. The blend trend will continue with a lean toward the current database to maintain continuity for the short term forecast. Will need to make only minor adjustments to the temperature database as models continue to perform relatively poorly in this part of the forecast. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 533 dam high near 77N 180 in the arctic has ridging extending south to a 530 dam high center over Healy. A 516 dam low over the Chukotsk Peninsula will merge with a low over Siberia. A 503 dam low over the west coast of Banks Island has a shortwave moving over the eastern arctic coast this evening. A 519 dam closed low that developed over the Seward Peninsula moved over eastern Kotzebue Sound and will merge into the flow around the low near Banks Island creating a minor shortwave that will move across the interior tonight binging some high clouds to the area. This has also cutoff the 530 dam high over the interior and the high center is moving southwest and will merge with a ridge moving into the eastern Bering Sea, eastern Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula this evening. A shortwave over the eastern arctic coast this evening will move over the Brooks Range by Thursday morning. At 850 hpa...Fairbanks was around 5 below celsius on the upper air run this morning which models initialized well with. A general cooling trend across the forecast area through Saturday. The 20 below celsius isotherm lies from Old Crow Yukon to Anaktuvuk Pass to Wainwright this afternoon and will lie from Dawson Yukon to Rampart to Point Lay by Thursday afternoon, and remains almost stationary through Friday afternoon before starting to move slowly back north. Models still indicating a much stronger surge of cold air pushing south to the Alaska range Monday through Wednesday. Surface...A 1033 mb high sits over the arctic with ridging south over the arctic plains, while a 982 mb low sits in the northeast Pacific. This pattern will persist as a 980 mb low moves east in the Bering Sea with a front moving to the southwest mainland by Thursday evening. This will create a relatively strong north to south gradient across the Chukchi Sea and eastern Bering Sea, as well as the Alaska Range at times, as a series of lows develop along the front and move into the Gulf of Alaska. As the low in the Bering Sea breaks down, a second low will move into the area from the north Pacific moving across the central Aleutians into the Bering Sea Friday evening to the Pribilof Islands by Saturday morning at 957 mb. This will increase the gradient across the Chukchi Sea and Eastern Bering Sea Saturday into Sunday morning. Inland areas will primarily be under a benign pattern with light winds through Friday, then northeast winds will pick up a bit as the gradient over the western and central interior tightens up a bit. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Not going to see much change here. With the low near Banks Island, onshore flow will continue and so will the light snow, fog, and low stratus. Not much wind with the system at this time, so blowing snow is not expected to be an issue, but as the low moves closer to the coast on the weekend there will continue to be potential for blowing snow impacting visibility. Colder temperatures into the weekend, then a slight warm up. Winds generally 5 to 15 mph with the exception of the northwest coast south of Point Lay where winds will pick up, as the gradient tightens, to 15 to 25 mph. NPP-VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 23/1644Z shows a solid stratus deck east of Point Lay over the coast and plains. GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 23/1845Z indicates mainly MVFR conditions with some IFR conditions over the plains. West Coast and Western Interior...NPP-VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 23/1644Z shows a solid stratus deck over the Seward Peninsula and outer Norton Sound and the Bering Strait. A few reports of flurries, but no significant snow. Stratus over the Seward Peninsula will be slowly eroding overnight. Northeast winds will increase over the eastern Bering Sea early Thursday with winds gusting to around 35 mph on St Lawrence Island by afternoon, and winds on the Bering Strait coast and lower yukon Delta gusting to around 25 mph. Temperatures relatively steady through the weekend with a cooling trend early next week. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions, light winds, temperatures cooling through the weekend. Still have some stratus hanging around in the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile country with some flurries, and see no reason for it to dissipate next 24 hours. Also some patchy stratus in the upper Yukon Flats from Rampart to Circle along the Yukon River. Coldest temperatures again this morning in the upper Yukon were around 35 below, expect more of the same tonight. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB NOV 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 222150 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1250 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Over northern Alaska and the arctic the solution remain similar with good run to run continuity, to the south of the Alaska Range and over the Bering Sea they diverge quite a bit beyond 102 hours and are a bit jumpy from run to run. Most active area during the short term will be the eastern arctic coast. Initialized well against the 22/18Z surface analysis. Will lean on a blend for the short term forecast, making only minor adjustments to the forecast database for the near term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 534 dam high near 77N 180 in the arctic with ridging extending south to a 530 dam high center over the central interior. A 516 dam low over the Bering Strait will merge with a low over Siberia. A 503 dam low will move over the west coast of Banks Island this evening with a shortwave moving over the eastern arctic coast tonight. A 519 dam low will develop over the Seward Peninsula tonight and over Kotzebue Sound by Wednesday morning, then moves east and merges with the low over Banks Island. This will cutoff the 530 dam high over the interior and the high center will move southwest over Nunivak Island by Wednesday afternoon, then merge with a ridge over the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday evening. A shortwave will spin around the low near Banks Island to be over the eastern arctic coast early Wednesday morning, and over the Brooks Range by Thursday morning. A shortwave created by the merging of the low that was over Kotzebue Sound will move to lie from over Fairbanks to Upper Cook Inlet early Thursday morning, and will move east over the AlCan border by Thursday afternoon. At 850 hpa...A general cooling trend across the forecast area with the 20 below celsius isotherm moving over the eastern arctic coast Wednesday morning and pushing south to Brooks Range Wednesday afternoon, and by Thursday afternoon it will lie from Eagle to Allakaket to Point Lay. The cold air will remain over the area through Friday then gets pushed slowly back to the north to the Brooks Range by Sunday afternoon. Models are indicating a much stronger surge of cold air pushing south to the Alaska range next week. Surface...General cyclonic pattern continues over the mainland with ridging pushing south over the arctic plain from a 1032 mb high that will be near 79N 170W Wednesday morning. A weak trough over the eastern arctic coast persists. A 1010mb low near Banks Island will spin a cold front to the eastern arctic coast Wednesday morning, and to the Brooks Range Wednesday evening. A weak leeside trough remains in place north of the Alaska Range in the vicinity of Delta Junction over the Tanana Flats. The Tanana Jet remains in place and winds will diminish Wednesday as the east to west gradient breaks down. Winds over the upper Yukon will diminish this evening as the gradient over that area relaxes. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Status quo with the stratus. Ridging persists offshore and pushes to the Brooks Range, but that will not change much as far as the stratus goes. The cold front moving to the eastern arctic coast overnight is not looking to have much impact, possibly better chance for some snow, but the system does not appear to be bringing much wind with the cold air so blowing snow should not be an issue. A general cooling trend as that cold air starts impacting the eastern arctic coast initially with cold spreading south and west the remainder of the week. Northeast winds will swing around to west and northwest to the east of Barrow as the front moves in. NPP-VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 22/1841Z shows a solid stratus deck east of Point Lay over the coast and plains. GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 22/1845Z indicates mainly MVFR conditions with some IFR conditions east and south of Nuiqsut over the coast and plains. West Coast and Western Interior...Some patches of stratus and high clouds in the area associated with and upper level trough over the area. Light snow being reported with the low stratus in several areas. Expect the stratus to dissipate in place overnight in most areas. High clouds will clear slowly through the evening. No significant winds, but they will pick up a bit over the lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island with gusts to around 25 mph as the trough in the central Bering Sea slides east a bit overnight. Some Marine stratus over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island will persist with occasional flurries. Temperatures steady, but cooling as we approach the weekend. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions, light winds, temperatures steady through Wednesday then cooling through the weekend. Still have some stratus hanging around in the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile country with some flurries, and do not expect that to dissipate next 24 hours. Also some patchy stratus in the upper Yukon Flats around stevens village that will persist. Coldest temperatures this morning in the upper Yukon were around 35 below, expect more of the same tonight. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB NOV 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 212239 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 139 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Continue to handle major features well into the midrange, but diverge beyond 96 hours. Over the arctic the models seem much more stable and show some divergence, but are at least trending in the same direction. Initialized well against the 21/18Z surface analysis. MOS guidance out to 24 hours seems a bit more stable, but will need to watch it run to run. Will lean on a blend for the short term since solutions are relatively similar, and will make only minor adjustments to temperatures to maintain continuity. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 534 dam high over the arctic with ridging extending south to the middle Tanana Valley then southeast sits near 76N 170W. The high over the arctic will move to 77n 180 by Wednesday afternoon, then remain steady through Thursday before moving west. A 532 dam high center will develop over the Alaska Range by Tuesday morning and move over the central interior at 528 dam by Tuesday night. A 520 dam low over Norton Sound will move west and merge with a low over Siberia. A 507 dam low near 80n 130w will south over the west coast of Banks Island by Tuesday evening with a shortwave moving over the eastern arctic coast early Wednesday morning. As the low over the eastern arctic moves south the high over the interior will be pushed southwest over Mcgrath by Wednesday morning with ridging extending to the east. The center then merges with a transitory ridge that will move into the area Thursday morning. A relatively fast zonal flow will continue along 50n. At 850 hpa...Temperatures relatively steady through Tuesday, then a slow cooling trend from the northeast as the 20 below celsius isotherm pushes south over the upper Yukon Flats by Friday morning. Surface...Benign cyclonic pattern continues over the mainland with ridging pushing south over the arctic plain from a 1033 mb high near 80n 180, and low pressure pushing north over areas south of the Alaska Range. A cold front will move to the eastern Arctic coast Wednesday and push south to the Yukon flats by Thursday afternoon. On the west coast, all quiet for now, but a trough will develop over the eastern Bering Sea and west coast Thursday night with a 1000 mb low developing near the Bering Strait. A tightened east to west pressure gradient will persist in the upper Tanana Valley into Thursday keeping winds up around Delta Junction. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ridging will persist offshore with weak trough over the coast and plains tonight. Trough dissipates and ridge pushes south over the plains. Onshore flow and stratus persisting with occasional flurries and some patchy freezing drizzle. No significant accumulation of snow or ice is expected. Winds generally northeast 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures steady except some cooling over the eastern arctic coast. NPP- VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 21/1859Z shows a pretty significant band of stratus over most of the coast and plains and more stratus offshore east of Barrow. West Coast and Western Interior...Going to be pretty quiet out west. No significant clouds or precipitation once the stratus over the lower Yukon Delta moves out. With a low pressure system in the central Bering Sea, northeast winds will pick up a bit over the lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait. Winds generally northeast 5 to 15 mph, except 10 to 20 and gusty in the lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island to the Bering Strait as the low moves a little closer to the area as the weak ridging dissipates. A few flurries will be possible in the lower Yukon Delta this evening, and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait through Wednesday. Still have some stratus floating around along the north slopes of the western Alaska Range, and a wave spinning around a low in the gulf will bring some high clouds to that area tonight as well. The wave may also kick off a few flurries in the western Alaska Range. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions with the exception of some stratus over the Yukon Flats from Circle to Rampart, stratus along the north slopes of the western Alaska Range, and stratus in the upper Tanana Valley east of Healy Lake and south of Eagle. The NPP-VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 21/1402Z shows the stratus quite well. The stratus has eroded a bit since yesterday around Northway, and over the Fortymile Country. Temperatures to rise a couple degrees through Wednesday, then cool back down a few degrees as we head into the weekend. Winds generally light and variable, with the exception of Delta Junction and the passes south of there where winds will be gusting to 35 mph at times, and the upper Yukon valley where winds will be gusting to around 25 mph this evening around Eagle. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB NOV 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 210851 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 351 AM EST Mon Nov 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over southern Quebec will continue to cause blustery conditions through today. High pressure will build over the region tonight through Tuesday night and move offshore Wednesday. A cold front will pass through Thanksgiving day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Tight pressure gradient will remain across the local area through today but some weakening of winds aloft will begin to occur later today. Aircraft data shows a low- level jet extending from central PA sewd through the Baltimore area with speeds as high as 50-kt. Have extended wind advzy for the mtns and along the PA border where NSSL-WRF ARW synthetic imagery shows the strongest subsidence and European ensembles show high prob of 40-kt gusts or greater. Temps about a deg or two cooler than yday. Snow showers over the mtns will diminish as subsidence inversion strengthens. Winds will finally diminish tonight as pressure gradient relaxes as high pressure begins to build and nocturnal inversion sets up. Temps tonight only a deg or two colder than today's. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...High pressure builds overhead Tue through Tue night. Cold with lows in the 20s. High pressure begins to move offshore Wed afternoon. A slow warm up occurs Wed as shortwave-ridge builds in ahead of next s/w trough over the upper Midwest. Have rain showers moving into western areas by day's end with likely prob of showers Wed night. Very little or no concern for any wintry precip. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Low pressure will be located over the Great Lakes Thursday morning. There is some model spread about how this system will translate eastward -- i.e. the development of a secondary low along the coast -- as well as how much moisture will be associated with it. At this time, there is support for a chance of light showers through at least the first half of Thanksgiving. The end of the week will be marked by low amplitude flow in the upper atmosphere and a quick succession of troughs and ridges. As such, there could be some minor timing differences, but on the whole, the forecast looks to be mostly dry into the weekend. However, the western upslope areas could see some snow showers with the Friday night trough. High pressure will build overhead by Saturday night and Sunday. With weak baroclinicity in this pattern, temperatures shouldn't stray too far from normal for the end of the week and weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Gusts 30-35kt through this afternoon diminishing after sunset. No cigs or vsbys restrictions. Rain showers likely Wed night ahead of next front. Sub-VFR conditions will remain possible throughout at least a portion of Thanksgiving Day as low pressure brings lower clouds and possible showers. VFR expected for Friday. && .MARINE...Gale force winds will continue through this afternoon with SCA conditions through Tue. With low pressure in the vicinity Thursday, winds may approach SCA criteria, but confidence about the evolution of this system is low at this time. Lighter winds are expected by daytime Friday with brief high pressure, although another weak low will approach Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Observations from ASOS sites indicated that Rh failed to meet/reach the Rh RFW criteria yesterday, although some of the typical suspicious AWOS did fall below 30%. Also, a look at previous model runs indicate that the 20/00Z ECMWF run nailed the RH forecast almost perfectly and the latest run shows Rh will fail to reach the criteria where winds are expected to be the strongest. Given that the lowest Rh's are not likely to overlap the strongest winds and vice versa, have cancelled the fire weather watch and issue a special weather statement instead for elevated fire danger. Fire activity...A high resolution VIIRS pass at 0730Z showed two distinct hotspots one over Nelson county and a more significant hotter one over Amherst county in RNK's CWA indicative of active fires in those two counties. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Blowout tides expected through Tue with water levels 1 to 2 below astronomical levels. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for DCZ001. MD...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for MDZ013-014- 503-504. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ003>006-011- 501-502-505>508. VA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for VAZ025>031- 040-052>054-501-505>508. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for VAZ503-504. WV...Wind Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for WVZ053. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ050>052-055- 501>506. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ530>532-538>540. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ530>532- 538>540. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ535- 536. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ535-536. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543. Gale Warning until noon EST today for ANZ533-534-537-541>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/LFR MARINE...ADS/LFR FIRE WEATHER...LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 202213 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 113 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Trend continues with models handling major features well, but lacking in the details. Solutions diverge a bit in the midrange and extended periods over the Bering Sea, but are similar enough over the arctic that a blend will provide reasonable guidance. Initialized well against the 20/18Z surface analysis. MOS guidance for the near term continue perform poorly and is very unstable from run to run. Will lean on a blend for the short term since pattern is not very active, and make only minor adjustments to the temperatures to maintain continuity. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 539 dam high over the arctic with ridging extending southeast over the Yukon Territory sits near 77N 175W and will remain stationary through Tuesday then move to the northwest. A trough remains over southwest Alaska with a 521 dam low over outer Norton Sound that will dissipate this evening, and a 517 dam low over upper Cook Inlet that will move north over the Alaska Range, then west to Norton Sound by early Monday morning. The low will move north of St Lawrence Island by Monday afternoon and persist over the area into Wednesday before moving west. A 511 dam low south Sand Point will move east into the northeast Pacific by Monday Afternoon, then north into the Gulf of Alaska before merging with another low that will be moving into the area Wednesday. A 508 dam low high in the Canadian arctic will move south over the west coast of Banks Island by Tuesday evening with a cold front moving over the eastern arctic coast early Wednesday morning. At 850 hpa...A slight warming trend into Wednesday will see temperatures rise 3 to 6 degrees celsius before then start cooling Wednesday night as cold arctic air moves in from the northeast. Surface...Still seeing a relatively benign pattern over the state as ridging persists over the interior and arctic. A trough lies over the arctic coast, and another lies over the west coast. A weak ridge is sliding over the eastern Bering Sea south of the Bering Strait today, but will be squeezed out as another front moves into the eastern Bering Sea with a front lying over the Pribilof Islands southeast across the Alaska Peninsula with weak troughing extending north through the Bering Strait. Weak leeside troughing to the north of the Alaska Range. No significant change expected in surface features through Thursday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ridging will persist offshore with weak trough over the coast and plains. So, onshore flow and stratus persisting with occasional flurries and some patchy freezing drizzle. No significant accumulation of snow or ice is expected. Winds generally 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures not changing much through Wednesday, then a sharp cooling trend as cold arctic air is pulled south over the northeast coast to the Brooks Range. West Coast and Western Interior...Weak trough over the coast with weak ridging just offshore. A few high clouds moving across the area, and the decaying front keeping cloudy conditions over the Bering Strait, while some stratus persists along the north slopes of the western Alaska Range. Only precipitation expected is some flurries in the Bering Strait, and over St lawrence Island. No significant change in temperatures next couple days. Winds generally northeast 5 to 15 mph with strongest winds near the Bering Strait. Central and Eastern Interior...Repeat of yesterday, Mostly clear conditions with the exception of some stratus over the Yukon Flats from Circle to Rampart, stratus along the north slopes of the western Alaska Range, and stratus in the upper Tanana Valley east of Healy Lake and south of Eagle. The NPP- VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 20/1420Z shows stratus quite well. There has been some erosion the past 24 hours, but overall not much change. Expect temperatures to rise a bit the next couple days, but no significant warm up expected. A cooling trend later in the week as cold arctic air filters into the interior from the northeast. Winds generally light and variable, with the exception of Delta Junction and the passes south of there where winds during the daytime will be 20 to 30 mph. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB NOV 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 192102 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1202 PM AKST Sat Nov 19 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Handling major features well, but lacking in the details. Solutions diverge quite a bit in the midrange and extended periods. Initialized well against the 19/18Z surface analysis. MOS guidance for the near term is lacking as has been the trend for the last couple months. Will go with a blend for the short term since pattern is not very active, but make only minor adjustments to the temperatures to maintain continuity. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 539 dam high over the arctic with ridging extending southeast over the Yukon Territory will move 77N 175W tonight then remain stationary into Wednesday. A trough south of the Alaska Range will have a closed low develop in it over upper Cook Inlet this evening, then persists into early Sunday before moving north over Lake Minchumina by Sunday afternoon. The low then moves northwest to the Seward Peninsula by Monday morning. A 521 dam low will develop over outer Norton Sound tonight and merge with the low moving to the Seward Peninsula Monday morning. Weak ridge of high pressure will push northwest into the southeast interior starting Monday morning with 530 dam heights over the central and eastern interior. A 514 Dam low 200 nm south of Dutch Harbor will move east into the northeast Pacific by Monday morning. A 510 dam low near the North Pole will move south to Banks Island by Tuesday afternoon with a weather front moving over the eastern arctic coast Tuesday night. At 850 hpa...Temperatures over Fairbanks will continue to cool tonight to around 12 below celsius, with temperatures over the remainder of the state between 5 below and 10 below celsius. Temperatures will warm a bit over the next couple days, then as the front drops to the eastern arctic coast cold air will push south with 20 below celsius temperatures over the coast by Thursday morning. Surface...Relatively benign pattern over the state with ridging over the interior and arctic. A trough lies over the arctic coast, and a decaying weather front is doing just that south of the Bering Strait and over Norton Sound. Some weak leeside troughing to the north of the Alaska Range. No significant change in surface features the next several days. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus persisting over the coastal areas with the trough hanging in the area and ridging off shore and inland. Expect a few flurries, and possibly some patchy freezing drizzle, but no significant accumulations of either. winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures steady through Tuesday, then a cooling trend as cold air drops south over the coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying front lingering south of the Bering Strait, and over Norton Sound will continue to do just that, and should dissipate overnight. Some stratus up against the Western Alaska Range will persist through the day, then erode this evening. Some flurries or light snow around the front and with the stratus but no significant accumulation. Winds generally northeast to east at 5 to 15 mph. no significant change in temperatures over the area the next few days. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions with the exception of some stratus over the Yukon Flats from Circle to Rampart, along the south slopes of the western Alaska Range, and in the upper Tanana Valley from Delta Junction east and south of Eagle. The NPP- VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 19/1439Z shows stratus quite well. There may be some erosion tonight, but not expecting much, and in may move into the upper Yukon Valley as stratus continues to push into the area out of the Yukon Territory. Not much change in temperatures, but they should be a few degrees cooler tonight in the clear areas, then slightly warmer the next couple days. Winds generally light and variable, with the exception of Delta Junction and the passes south of there where winds Sunday afternoon will be 20 to 30 mph. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220-PKZ230. && $$ SDB NOV 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 181100 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 600 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Strengthening low pressure will track north of Pennsylvania Saturday, pushing a strong cold front through the state. The upper low will pivot over the region on Sunday, then only slowly lift out of the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VIIRS satellite imagery showing patchy valley fog across North Central Pa early this morning. Based on latest SREF/downscaled NAM, expect the fog to burn off by 14Z-15Z. Abundant sunshine and a warmer southerly return flow will allow temperatures to rebound quickly from the cool morning. GEFS 925MB temps of near 15C are supportive of near record high temperatures of around 70F across the western half of the state. Further east, a strong, sfc-based inversion may be tough to break until the early afternoon hours across the Susquehanna Valley, where the sfc gradient will be virtually non-existent and winds aloft will be very light. Therefore, will continue to forecast slightly cooler temps across the eastern counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A mostly clear and mild Friday night is expected, as approaching cold front remains west of Pa. The mildest readings will be over the Allegheny Plateau, where a light southerly breeze should hold temps to the 45-50F range. A weaker gradient should allow for more radiational cooling across the eastern half of the state with min temps in the upper 30s/low 40s. Model data tracks strong cold front through the Allegheny Plateau during late morning and through the Susq Valley in the afternoon. Strong forcing ahead of potent mid level shortwave will support a narrow band of showers accompanying the fropa. GEFS output backs the idea of POPs near 100pct across NW Mtns and near 50pct across the southeast counties. Gusty west winds and falling temperatures will follow passage of the front Saturday afternoon. Temps aloft become cold enough for a few orographic snow showers across the western Mtns toward evening. However, near surface temps should remain too warm to support any chance of accumulations through dusk. Since there will be a good deal of daylight and sunshine ahead of the front, many places in the SE will again get into the 60s on Sat. Max temps in the west will probably be at the very start of the day. Thunder is a low possibility as the system is vigorous, but has such paltry dewpoints, and it is not worth a mention. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rain showers will change to snow showers in the northwest by dusk Sat evening. Some accumulating lake effect snow is likely Saturday night into Monday. Coldest air of the season builds over northern PA with 850 mb temps of -10C to -12C with well-channeled flow. Post frontal northwesterlies should be quite robust on Sunday as this cold air blasts southeastward across the lakes. Potential exists for several inches of lake effect snowfall in the preferred locations between Saturday night and Monday morning. Other concern will be the strong NW winds, which could potentially reach advisory criteria Sunday/Sun night based on latest Bufkit soundings. Northwest flow will persist into next Monday with lingering snow showers downstream of LE but dry and cold in the S/E. All med range guidance indicating fair wx Tuesday with passage of high pressure ridge. 00Z ECENS and NAEFS both track a sfc low north of Pa Wed/Thu, suggesting a period of milder/showery weather is likely at that time. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall, VFR conditions will prevail across the region through Saturday morning. The only exception will possibly be some areas of morning fog and low stratus. Usual suspects of KIPT, KBFD and KSEG are most likely to see fog affect the airfields. At this point, fog is not included in TAFs, based on lower confidence and expected limited coverage. Will monitor, and possibly include mention in later issuances. Outlook... Sat...Patchy AM fog possible. Snow showers/low vsbys possible Sat night KBFD/KJST. Sat night-Mon...Strong/gusty NW winds. Gusts frequently between 35-45 mph Sat night through Sunday. Snow showers/reduced vsby likely at KBFD/KJST. Ocnl MVFR cigs with flurries and brief snow showers across the Central Mtn airfields - KAOO, KUNV and KIPT with mainly VFR invof KMDT, KLNS and KTHV. Tues...Morning MVFR cigs possible across the northern and western mtns of PA...otherwise decreasing wind and improving conditions to mainly VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Gartner AVIATION...Jung/Lambert  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 101403 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 403 AM HST Thu Nov 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak surface ridge near the islands will maintain light winds across the region through the end of the week. With a relatively stable pattern over the islands, the light winds will create afternoon clouds over interior sections with spotty, light showers, followed by clearing at night. Trade winds will rebuild on Sunday and could become breezy and gusty on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... No significant change to the forecast this morning. The overnight soundings from Hilo and Lihue continue to show low inversions, with heights between 4000 and 5500 ft, and precipitable water (PW) values between 1.34 and 1.44 inches, which is about normal for December. The surface ridge is over the smaller islands, bringing light winds to the region, which helped to clear skies over most of the islands overnight. A recent VIIRS Day/Night band image, which uses the available moonlight to produce a pseudo visible image, showed few clouds over the islands. Expect clouds to form over the interior of the islands starting around mid morning, with some spotty showers this afternoon. Rainfall totals are expected to remain light. A dissipating frontal band north of Kauai could bring a few more showers into Kauai this afternoon, but is otherwise not expected to have an impact on the island weather. The ridge is expected to linger overhead through Saturday, with a new high pressure system building far north of the islands on Sunday. This will bring trades back to the islands, which are expected to increase further on Monday. The return to trades will also bring a return to the more typical trade wind showers. The models show winds atop the Big Island summits will be picking up early next week. Have made some tweaks to the forecast winds for Monday onwards to better account for the latest model runs. && .AVIATION... The tail end to a front poses a threat to northern Kauai this morning where associated clouds are moving toward the island. The models have the clouds breaking up over the waters before reaching the northern coast this morning. But if the clouds do make it onshore and coverage is widespread, we may need to impose AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration. At this time, however. we will go with models suggestion of keep northern Kauai VFR. Otherwise, VFR will rule the island skies today. Light winds and daytime heating, however, will combine to produce some spotty afternoon clouds over the island's interior areas. Any MVFR ceilings that arises will be local, and the showers will be isolated and brief at best. Light trades will be returning tonight accompanied by some trade wind clouds. No AIRMETS in effect and none is expected. && .MARINE... We are starting to see hints of the new long period north northwest swell at buoys 51000 and 51001. Travel time to the Kauai is about 6 hours, it'll be sometime this morning before that energy even begins to reach the islands. As the swell builds today, expect the elevated surf to rise again to warning levels late in the date. A high surf warning has been issued for various north and west facing shores while a high surf advisory is in effect for the Big Island and Oahu. The current advisory/warning goes out until 6 am Friday, but in all likelihood will be extended as the surf is expected to remain elevated. Another large northwest swell is expected to arrive Sunday night with surf reaching at least advisory levels. Winds will remain below small craft advisory (SCA) criterion through Saturday. As the trades pick up early next week, a SCA for winds may be needed. Meanwhile the incoming swell will boost seas above 10ft for many locations later today. As such, an SCA have been issued for most coastal locations. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Friday for Niihau-Kauai Windward-Kauai Leeward-Oahu North Shore-Oahu Koolau-Olomana- Molokai-Maui Windward West-Maui Central Valley-Windward Haleakala. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Waianae Coast-Big Island North and East. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Friday for Maui County Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...M Ballard AVIATION...Lau  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ATHW40 PHFO 031230 SIMHI HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1230 UTC THU NOV 03 2016 BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 03 2016 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AMPLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SUPPORT A BAND OF CIRRUS /CI/ ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N 135W TO 22N 144W TO 17N 165W...WITH THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST BAND OF CI WITHIN 175 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM EAST OF 23N 130W TO 13N 150W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HAVING LITTLE EFFECT AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO BE NEAR 30N 174W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO 27N 150W. JUST NORTH OF 30N...A BROKEN TO OVERCAST FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ IS FILLING IN BETWEEN 150W AND 170W AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH. ALONG THE RIDGE THERE ARE ONLY A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINATELY MOVING TO THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 15 AND 30 MPH. CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 08 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET. THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SIT WITHIN THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN FIELD OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ISLANDS ARE HELPING TO PRODUCE THIN CLOUD BANDS IN THEIR WAKE. A VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND IMAGE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH OAHU...WITH ONLY FEW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF OAHU AND MOLOKAI. A STREAM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS 400 MILES OUT FROM FROM NORTHEAST COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE ON THESE ISLANDS THERE ARE FEW PASSING LOW CLOUDS. A PATCH OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER KAUAI THIS MORNING ALSO EXTENDS 250 MILES UPSTREAM. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE /ITCZ/ CONTINUES TO FLAIR BETWEEN 06N AND 13N FROM 140W TO 180W. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS IN THIS REGION REACH UPWARDS OF 48 THOUSAND FEET. $$ EATON  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 312059 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1259 PM AKDT MON OCT 31 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Overall pattern change is slowly progressing with ridging over the northeast interior and Yukon Territory starting to tilt to the northwest, while the trough over the Bering Sea is also starting to tilt with more activity developing in the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific. Models initialized well against the 31/18Z surface analysis and continue to show the good continuity in the short term they have had over the past week. Just nudging the current forecast database for this cycle of forecasts. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridge over the eastern interior with 550 dam closed center will remain over the eastern Brooks Range and northern Yukon Territory through the week. The ridge axis slowly tilts to the northwest with the axis lying from 75N 180, southeast to Alberta Canada by Wednesday morning, then almost west to east across the arctic coast and Brooks Range by Thursday. Over the Bering Sea a 499 dam low will move northwest over St Matthew Island tonight, then west across the northern Bering Sea. The low will be absorbed Wednesday by a 508 dam low over the Sea of Ohkotsk that will move into the Bering Sea tonight and to the Pribilof Islands by Thursday afternoon. A weak col will develop over the state Thursday night with troughing pushing southwest over the state Friday. At 850 hpa...Another pulse of warm air tonight will push the temperature up to around 3 above celsius in some central interior areas, then a slow cooling trend the remainder of the week. Surface...Ridging persists over the eastern interior. Weak leeside trough on the north side of the Alaska Range will persist through the week. Trough over the arctic coast and plain will weaken later in the week. Ridging will persist over the northeast arctic and build west across the northern arctic through the week. A trough of low pressure will remain over the Bering Sea extending southeast into the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific. Satellite...The SPoRT NPP-VIIRS Nighttime Microphysics RGB product at 31/1356Z has an excellent example of valley stratus over the Upper Tanana Valley, Fortymile Country, and central Yukon Territory. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Marine stratus and fog with a few flurries possible will be the primary impacts to weather over the area the next couple days. A cold front will move to the northeast arctic coast Some time Wednesday and that will produce some strong winds and possible a period of snow to the east of Deadhorse. Otherwise winds generally northeast to east at 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures a bit above normal through Tuesday, then cooling. West Coast and Western Interior...Windy south of the Bering Strait tonight, then winds trending down. Mostly cloudy for most areas this evening becoming partly cloudy in many areas overnight. Temperatures will remain a bit above normal as some warmer air moves into the area tonight, then a general cooling trend the remainder of the week. Strongest winds this evening in the lower Yukon Delta and on St Lawrence Island with gusts to around 50 mph. Winds in the Norton Sound region will be gusting around 40 early this evening diminishing overnight. Central and Eastern Interior...With the exception of some stratus developing in the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country conditions will generally be partly cloudy and slightly warmer than normal. Temperatures will start trending down Wednesday as cooler air flows into the area. A few flurries possible out of the stratus, but no significant accumulation. Some gusty gap winds in the Alaska range, and the Tanana Valley jet has set up so gusty east winds continue to blow from Delta Junction to Nenana over the Tanana Flats. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ245. Gale Warning for PKZ210. && $$ SDB OCT 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 152029 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1229 PM AKDT SAT OCT 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Run to run continuity remains very good in the short term and the GFS is trending toward the ECMWF solution in the extended periods. A more active pattern is developing for the coming week. They have also picked up on the stronger winds across the interior for the next couple days. Will use a blend of the latest model output, to nudge the current forecast database, with no significant changes expected in the short term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...551 dam closed high is just south of Wrangel Island and will remain stationary with slowly falling height through Sunday afternoon, then move south to the western Gulf of Anadyr by Monday morning. The high merges with a ridge over the western Bering Sea Tuesday. A 499 dam low over the Canadian Archipelago will slowly move east while a trough extends southwest to a 517 dam low over the Yukon Territory. The low over the Yukon Territory will move southwest over Cook Inlet by Sunday morning at 515 dam, and over Kodiak Island by Monday morning at 510 dam, and just south of Sand Point by Tuesday morning at 515 dam. The associated trough will lie over southeast Alaska mainland around Tok tonight and slowly work northwest through Tuesday morning to lie from Cold Bay to Sparrevohn to Fairbanks to Komakuk Beach Yukon. Stacked low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will spin moisture up over the southeast mainland beginning Sunday. At 850 hpa...Cold air advection will continue with temperatures over the central interior falling from around 8 below zero to around 13 below celsius by Sunday afternoon. A strong northeast flow will accompany the cold air with 35 to 50 mph winds. Surface...Cyclonic flow over the state with 985 mb low in the northern Gulf of Alaska and a 1023 mb high in the central arctic. Pressure gradient has tightened up a bit as the high moves south, and the low deepens, and will continue to do so through Sunday night. The gradient starts to relax Monday afternoon and winds will diminish over the interior. A cold front will move south out of the arctic to the eastern Brooks Range this evening, then merges with the front over the southeast interior which will lie from near Cantwell to Dot Lake to Dawson by Sunday morning. Then moves to lie from Sparrevohn to Fairbanks to Ft McPherson NWT by Sunday afternoon, and Bethel to Tanana to Richards Bay NWT by Monday morning. As the high near Wrangel Island moves south ridging slides south over the arctic coast Monday and moves south over the Brooks Range by Tuesday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Onshore flow bringing cooler temperatures across the area. Stratus has moved over most areas and flurries or light snow have been reported at many of the stations east of Barrow. The stratus and snow will continue over the area with the highest snow probability in the easter Brooks range where up to 7 inches of snow can be expected east of the Kavik River over the next couple days. Along the Dalton Highway the highest amounts will be around 4 inches possible around Atigun Pass over the next couple days. The 15/1356Z NPP- VIIRS SPoRT 24 hr Microphysics product show the stratus packed up against the north slopes of the Brooks Range and extending north into the arctic, though some is obscured by higher clouds. The GOES probability product at 15/1745Z indicates an extensive area of MVFR conditions from the Crest of the Brooks range north over the offshore waters. Winds will generally be northeast to east at 10 to 20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph in the Brooks Range passes. West Coast and Western Interior...With the exception of some stronger winds developing south of Galena in middle and lower Yukon Delta, and Norton Sound, it will be very quiet through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to cool through Monday before leveling off. Winds will keep low temperatures up a bit the next couple days due to mixing, but high temperatures will be noticeably cooler that the past week or so. Strongest winds will be northeast to east at 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 40 mph so will issue some wind advisories for Sunday through Monday afternoon. No significant precipitation is expected through Monday. Central and Eastern Interior...Cooler temperatures are rolling in and that will continue through Sunday. A relatively strong pressure gradient is developing across the area between the high to the north and low to the south. So, northeast winds will start picking up and as the gradient tightens up tonight wind speeds will increase. Will issue wind advisories for most interior zones for gusts to around 40 mph. The strongest winds can be expected over the higher terrain and summits, but gusty winds will make it down into the valleys as well. With a surface low developing over the northern Gulf of Alaska supported by a low aloft moisture will flow northwest into the southeast interior, so expect some light snow in the eastern Alaska range and the upper Tanana Valley. Up to 3 inches will be possible east of the Richardson Highway, with around 2 inches expect over the Tok Cutoff. Temperatures will continue to fall with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows in the 5 to 15 above range making them 20 to 30 degrees cooler than they have been the past week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221- AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ227. Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB OCT 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 142012 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1212 PM AKDT FRI OCT 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Initialized well against the 14/18Z surface analysis. Run to run continuity has been very good with the ridge over us. As we trend to a slightly more active pattern the models maintain the good agreement through the short term. There is some divergence in the extended periods as the GFS is trying to build another ridge north over the arctic coast, while the ECMWF keeps the ridge south of our forecast area. Will use a blend of the latest model output, to nudge the current forecast database, with no significant changes expected in the short term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...560 dam closed high will move to just south of Wrangel Island this evening and become stationary and heights will fall into Sunday before it starts moving south. The high will merge with a ridge over the central Bering Sea Tuesday. A 505 dam low over the Canadian Archipelago will remain stationary through Saturday with heights falling to around 500 dam. A trough will continue to dig southwest over the southeast mainland and a 519 dam low will develop in the trough over the Yukon Territory. The trough will continue to dig southwest with the low moving over Prince William Sound at 516 dam by Sunday morning with a trough lying across the Fortymile country and the central Yukon Territory. The low will continue to move to the southwest to the Shelikof Strait by Monday afternoon at 510 dam and the trough will move northwest and lie from King Salmon to Nikolai to Fort yukon and northeast. At 850 hpa...Cold air advection will continue with temperatures over the central interior falling from around Zero to around 12 below celsius by Sunday afternoon. A relatively strong northeast flow will accompany the cold air with 15 to 30 mph winds. Surface...A 1025 mb high over the high western Arctic will drift southeast to be 300 nm north of Wainwright by Sunday morning with ridging extending east across the Beaufort Sea and Banks Island. The ridge continue to drift southeast over Barrow by Monday morning at 1020 mb with ridging persisting to the east over Banks Island. A complex of lows lie over the Gulf of Alaska and the northeast Pacific with a 988 mb low in the northern gulf, a 986 mb low near Sitka, and a 984 mb low in the northeast Pacific. A trough extends from the gulf to the west across Bristol Bay, then along 60N, to a 998 mb low near the Kamchatka Peninsula. The lows in the Gulf of Alaska will merge into a single 982 mb low in the northern gulf, and the trough to the west will drift slowly south through Sunday. As the low in the gulf continues to deepen to around 977 mb by early Monday the trough will merge with a 1003 mb low just south of the Aleutians that is moving east and will be 200 nm south of Adak by Monday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stronger onshore flow will bring cooler temperatures across the area, and some upslope snow to the eastern Brooks Range through the weekend. The unseasonably high temperatures will end as cold air flows into the area and highs fall into the 20s with lows in the teens or colder. East winds become northeast as the ridge over the Arctic starts drifting southeast and the trough digs in over the Yukon Territory. Winds will generally be 5 to 15 mph this evening, increasing to 10 to 25 mph Saturday. Stratus already covers most of the coastal areas as can be seen on the 14/1414Z NPP-VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product. The GOES probability product at 14/1715Z also indicates an extensive area of MVFR conditions over the plains and coast as well out over the arctic. There are currently flurries with the stratus over the coast, but expect snow to develop over the eastern arctic coast tonight and spread to the Eastern Brooks range by Saturday afternoon. Snow accumulation from the Dalton highway east will be 1 to 5 inches with the highest amounts east of the Kavik river. West Coast and Western Interior...Will be very quiet out here through the weekend, with only the cooling temperatures to deal with, and possibly some gusty winds that will accompany that colder air. Generally clear conditions will prevail with light winds becoming northeast and picking up as the cold air flows into the area. Winds will generally be less that 10 mph, but may kick up to around 20 mph with the initial surge of cooler air. No significant precipitation is expected through the weekend. Central and Eastern Interior...A change to cooler conditions is underway and that will continue through the weekend. A surface low developing over the northern Gulf of Alaska and supported by a low aloft will spin some moisture north into the eastern interior Saturday night and Sunday and produce some light snow in the eastern Alaska range and the upper Tanana Valley. Up to an inch will be possible east of the Richardson Highway. As the low in the gulf continues to develop and a weak frontal boundary lies from the low over the central interior and northeast weak overrunning and increased cloud cover in the eastern interior starting Monday and spreading to the central interior Tuesday with slight chances of snow. Temperatures will continue to fall through the weekend and will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler than they have been the past week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB OCT 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 031859 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1059 AM AKDT MON OCT 3 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Similar solutions into the mid term. A tropical influence later in the forecast as Typhoon Chaba moves into the Bering Sea late in the week. Blockish pattern with ridging over the interior will persist with a more active pattern over the Bering Sea as lows move into the area then deflect to the northwest as the ridge holds. Biggest challenge will be timing of the waves of precipitation moving up the west coast this week. ECMWF is a bit more aggressive in bringing the precipitation over the southwest coast from wednesday through the weekend. For the short term will lean on a blend of the solutions. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 547 dam low over Norton Sound will weaken and move southeast across the state through a col to be over upper Cook Inlet tonight, over Yakutat by Tuesday afternoon, then moves south over the panhandle. Ridging will be the main feature the next couple days as it persists over the central part of the state with a 555 dam high over the arctic and ridging from a 588 dam high over the pacific pushing north over Bristol Bay. An anchoring low over Siberia persists with a 520 dam center as several lows will swing around the low to the west coast, then move northwest and are absorbed by the low. The first low will be a 527 dam low near Attu that will move to 200 nm west of St Matthew Island by Tuesday afternoon, then north as it weakens and dissipates. The associated shortwave will move north over the coast early Wednesday. The next will be a 529 dam low that moves from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Amchitka by Wednesday afternoon, then north as it weakens and dissipates Thursday afternoon. The associated shortwave will move over eastern Bering Sea Wednesday night as it is pushed offshore by the building high over the western interior. At 850 hpa...Zero Isotherm generally south of the forecast area will remain that way into Thursday then moves north to lie from Point Hope to Yakutat, and from Barrow to Yakutat by Friday afternoon. Surface...Surface ridging over the interior will persist and the trough over the arctic coast will retreat to the west as a 1022 mb high over the Beaufort Sea moves south over the Yukon Territory. Ridging will also build north over the western interior tonight with a 1022 mb center developing over Norton Sound by Tuesday morning. A 1016 mb low will move east across the arctic offshore waters to be 400 nm north of Deadhorse by Tuesday afternoon, and continue east to Banks Island by Wednesday afternoon. a few weak waves will move around the low to brush the eastern arctic coast and produce some flurries over the area. The Bering Sea is much more active as a series of lows moves through the area. The lows will move east to around 170W, then move north into Siberia or be absorbed by the low over Siberia. Precipitation will be mainly offshore with each of the waves with only a few showers making it to the coast Wednesday. Rain and showers will spread over St Lawrence Island Wednesday through Friday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...SPORT NPP-VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics at 03/1601Z shows a well defined band of stratus over the arctic coast from Barrow to Near Nuiqsut and then just offshore north of Deadhorse and Kaktovik and indications are that the area is expanding at this time. Expect that band to drift a bit south as the surface high over the Beaufort Sea moves south and the trough over the arctic coast recedes to the west. A 1015 mb low moving across the arctic will not impact the areas significantly, but may kick off some flurries out of the stratus. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler over the next couple days, then a small warmup for most of the arctic later in the week. winds will switch around from the southwest as the trough pulls back and the ridge slides south with wind speeds generally 5 to 15 mph. West Coast and Western Interior...Will be the busiest area weather wise this week, but confidence is relatively low on precipitation moving into the area. Winds will be the biggest impact through the week as the pressure gradient across the area will remain relatively strong with small craft conditions persisting with occasional periods of gales south of the Bering Strait. Winds over the coast will generally be south at 5 to 20 mph with light winds inland. Models indicate some showers moving over the lower Yukon Delta Wednesday, but models differ on just how much precipitation can be expected. Rain or showers will move over St Lawrence island Tuesday and persist through late in the week. Central and Eastern Interior...The week looks pretty nice with just some clouds transiting through the area. Temperatures will be seasonable with a slight warming trend late in the week. No precipitation expected this week as the ridge of high pressure persists over the interior blocking weather over the west coast from making it inland. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4....None, but persistent southeast flow and a tightened gradient will keep wave heights elevated. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. && $$ SDB OCT 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 132112 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 112 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Run to run continuity remains good. Some adjustment on the movement of the upper level low as it fills and moves east a little faster across the state. Still some divergence in the extended periods, especially over the arctic, but blending the models will leave a trough over the area. Timing of the shortwaves moving around trough will be questionable, but the general weather pattern will not be affected over most of the area. Leaning toward the NAM precipitation solution again today since it has had a better handle on the system over the last few periods. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Primary low that was over Norton Sound yesterday has moved east over Beaver at 538 dam and will continue east over the Canadian yukon and dissipate tonight. An east to west trough over the arctic will move south over the northwest coast tonight and push south to lie from Deadhorse to Wales by late Wednesday. Ridging will build over the southeast mainland...mainly south and east of the Yukon River, then breaks down and retreats southeast as a longwave trough associated with a 537 dam low over the arctic develops over the west coast. The longwave trough will move slowly east across the state through the weekend. At 850 hpa...Zero isotherm lies from Old Crow Yukon to Fairbanks to Sleetmute to St Lawrence Island today. To the east it will start slowly moving back to the north and will lie from Old Crow to Ruby to Mekoryok by Thursday morning, and Old Crow to Huslia to Marshall and south by Saturday morning. Surface...Trough and stationary front will persist east to west across the interior to the west coast, but weaken as ridging pushes north over the Tanana Valley. Weak lows are still developing along the front and will spread occasional showers to most of the interior. Cloudy conditions will persist through the week, but a few breaks will occur. The next system, a 978 mb low near Shemya will move to Adak by Wednesday morning and Dutch harbor by Thursday morning with the associated weather front spreading more showers to the forecast area from the brooks range south. Showery conditions will persist through the weekend. As the system advances toward the area the pressure gradient will increase and gap winds through the Alaska range will gust into the 40 mph range. A low pressure system in the high arctic has the potential to bring the first significant snow to the arctic coast starting Friday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Same issue today with the SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics product at 13/1715Z as the high clouds obscure lower clouds. The GOES probability product at 13/1830Z is indicating MVFR conditions over most of the arctic with some higher clouds just offshore and more MVFR conditions well offshore with the a trough progressing toward the coast. Observation confirm it is mainly low cloud coverage. Heavy Snow Warning remains in effect through Wednesday morning, it looks like Toolik Lake and Anaktuvuk Pass have had about 2 inches of snow so far. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with the freezing level at or near the surface over most of the area. The next significant system which will approach the coast on Friday could bring the first significant snow to the arctic coastal areas Friday night and Saturday. temperatures will continue to slowly fall. As the low settles in near Huslia expect heavier precipitation with the upslope component and a good southerly feed of moisture into the area. East winds over most of the area as the low settles in and weak ridging continues to build east over the offshore waters. West Coast and Western Interior...Showers tapering off in the interior with some clearing and breaks developing overnight. GOES IR loop indicates quite a bit of stratus over the west coast so the weak ridging over the eastern Bering Sea is pretty dirty. The GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 13/1830Z indicating high probability of MVFR conditions over most of the area without any significant open areas. Winds will swing around from northerly to easterly as the next system moves to Bristol Bay by tomorrow and spreads rain to the lower Yukon Delta by Late Wednesday evening. Rain will continue to spread north and east as the front progresses north. The Kotzebue sound region will be spared for the most part from the precipitation as a weak ridge develops over the area between systems. Relatively strong winds will persist over the Chukchi Sea and through the Bering Strait as ridging persists over the Chukotsk Peninsula. Cooler temperatures will prevail and some of the rain may mix with snow during the overnight hours starting Thursday. Central and Eastern Interior...Showers will taper off through the night as the system weakens a bit and the primary low along the front moves to the east and dissipates over the Yukon Territory. Very good potential for dense fog and low stratus ceilings tonight and Wednesday morning are likely north and west of Delta Junction. Winds generally light from the southwest will swing around to east and northeast for Wednesday. Some stronger south winds through the Alaska Range on Wednesday night as the next system moves north into the interior and gap winds kick up and gust to around 45 mph. Highs across the interior will be in the lower 40s with lows in the 30s to the south of the Yukon River and 20s to the north. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Hydrology...Some rises of around a foot in the rivers draining out of the Brooks range, but they remain well below flood levels. Expect them to continue to rise as the rains of the last couple days make their way into the mainstem rivers. Rivers draining out of the Alaska range have also seen some rises but do not foresee any issues there. Not expecting any significant jumps in the river levels the remainder of the week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning FOR AKZ205-AKZ206. Winter Weather Advisory FOR AKZ217-AKZ218. Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225. Gale Warning FOR PKZ210. && $$ sdb Sep 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 131430 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1030 AM EDT Tue Sep 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift east from the northern Mid-Atlantic coast rest of today. A mainly dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night. High pressure returns to the area through Friday before a cold front crosses the area Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low level SWly flow will bring mid to upper teen 850mb temps today with temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday...maxima 85 to 90F. Less cloud cover expected tonight with valley/ground fog possible. Warmer with lows 65 to 70 due to a strengthening Sly flow. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... H85 temps rise to 18-20C and sfc winds become westerly ahead of cdfnt moving through the eastern Great Lks and New England states. MOS guidance looks too cool and have used a model trend for MaxT Wed. Expecting temps to reach the mid 90s with record highs likely at DCA and IAD. Cdfnt will be moving through the area during the evening and have kept a slight chance (20% POP) for MD counties along the Mason- Dixon line. High pressure builds Thu through Fri with temperatures at least 10 degs cooler Thu. Low clouds expected to develop behind front Thu and Thu night with some very light precip over the Blue Ridge mountains due to upslope flow. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will be located over New England on Friday, with upper ridging moving overhead. A light onshore wind combined with the low level thermal trough axis passing through may mean Friday is the coolest day of the week (and dry), as highs may stay below 80F for a large portion of the area. The high will move farther east Saturday as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes. Am thinking Saturday remains dry, with the best chance for any storms over the western terrain where heights will be lower and there will be a SE upslope component to the low level flow. It's also possible pre-frontal convection from the west approaches during the evening or overnight. Otherwise, increasing temperatures can be expected. For Sunday-Monday, model spread begins to increase significantly in how to handle the approaching cold front, upper level energy, and possible interaction with moisture along the southeast coast. The 00Z ECMWF is flatter with the upper flow and quicker with the front, whereas the 00Z GFS develops a closed low at 500mb, a wave along the front, and a slower passage on Monday. Therefore, the forecast will call for chances of showers and storms through this time period. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through Monday. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through Wed night. Southerly flow around 10 kt rest of today. Winds shift west Wednesday gusting around 15 kt ahead of a dry cold front that crosses Wednesday night. NWly flow gusts around 20 knots Thursday. MVFR/IFR cigs possible Thu and especially Thu night due to onshore flow behind fropa. There is potential for MVFR clouds due to onshore flow Friday and Saturday mornings, mainly at IAD/MRB/CHO. && .MARINE... South winds 10 to 15 kt through this evening with high pressure offshore. Winds expected to strengthen Wed night with SCA conditions likely Thu through Fri morning. High pressure will move off the coast Friday into Saturday. Onshore flow Friday will become southerly on Saturday. Winds may approach small craft advisory levels by late in the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... MODIS and VIIRS True color images from yesterday revealed that significant drying has occurred across northern VA and north central MD especially in Washington, Frederick and western Loudoun counties. Record high temperatures likely Wed with Rh's dropping into the low twenties as winds become westerly. Red flags conditions are not expected since winds are expected to remain below criteria, but an elevated fire weather threat will exist due to low humidities and drying fuels. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light south flow has raised water levels about one foot above normal. No coastal flooding is expected with this lesser high tide during the day today (though Straits Pt and Annapolis will be close), but is expected for sensitive locations for the preferred high tide cycle tonight. && .CLIMATE... Unseasonably hot weather will return to the area briefly on Wednesday. Here is a list of record daily high and warm low temperatures for September 14th. Washington DC area (Ronald Reagan National Airport, DCA) Record daily high temperature: 94 (1981, 1980 and 1915) Record daily high minimum temperature: 75 (2008 and 1961) Baltimore MD area (Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, BWI) Record daily high temperature: 94 (1931) Record daily high minimum temperature: 74 (1915) Dulles International Airport VA (IAD) Record daily high temperature: 95 (1998) Record daily high minimum temperature: 71 (2008) && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR NEAR TERM...BAJ/LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...BAJ/ADS/LFR MARINE...BAJ/ADS/LFR FIRE WEATHER...lfr/baj TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...baj CLIMATE...lwx  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 112204 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 204 PM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Excellent run to run continuity with very little change in the solutions the last couple runs. Solutions through the midrange and extended periods continue to be similar enough that a blend will smooth out the bumps. Will lean toward the NAM precipitation solution as it handle the rain shadowing better than the other models with a nudge to the SREF Probabilities. Aloft...at 500 hpa...A 510 dam closed low over the northeast arctic will move east tonight to Banks Island and continue into the Canadian archipelago Monday. A shortwave will swinging south around the low is moving over the arctic coast and will merge with a 537 dam low that develops over the Bering Strait. The low then moves northeast across the interior to the Yukon Territory by Tuesday evening at 542 dam. A west to east lying trough will persist over the central arctic through Tuesday, then move south over the northwest and central arctic coast Wednesday. A ridge over the north Pacific is pushing 543 dam heights north over the arctic coast today. The ridge will slide east tonight and heights will slowly fall over the area through Tuesday. A ridge over the western Aleutians will move east to the southwest mainland by Tuesday evening as the low moves across the interior. At 850 hpa...Zero isotherm lies along the crest of the Brooks Range and north of St Lawrence Island today and will remain stationary into late Monday before slowly moving south and east to lie from Old Crow Yukon to Livengood to Holy Cross to St Lawrence Island late Tuesday. Surface...A 994 low just south of Nunivak Island will move northeast to Norton Sound tonight at 986 mb, and to Huslia at 993 mb by Tuesday morning. A 995 mb low will develop over the upper Yukon Flats early Tuesday and move east into the Yukon Territory. Ridging will build southeast across the arctic and south over the Gulf of Anadyr and eastern Bering Sea from a 1030 mb center near New Siberian Island. Troughing and the associated stationary weather front will remain across the interior as the low moves east, and will be enhanced late Wednesday as a 979 mb low over the Western Aleutians Monday night moves to the Central aleutians Wednesday morning at 978 mb, and to the western Alaska Peninsula by Thursday evening at 986 mb. A broad are of low pressure high in the arctic Wednesday will move south to the central arctic with a 988 mb center 300 nm north of Barrow by Friday morning. Precipitation will spread over the forecast area today from the southwest with the exception of the areas in the rain shadow of the Alaska Range. Snow developing at higher elevations of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges today and tonight. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics product at 11/1751Z continues to indicate a band of stratus a couple hundred miles wide north of the Brooks range. GOES probability product at 11/19150Z again indicating it is mostly MVFR sky cover. There are some IFR conditions indicated around the Chukchi Sea and observations indicate this is mostly fog. Not much change expected with plenty of cloud cover in the coastal areas. In the Brooks Range conditions will deteriorate tonight as the low moves to Norton Sound and spreads precipitation over the area. Tough call on snow amounts with this being the transition period and the ground is not frozen, and there will be some warm air brought north with the system. Expect some heavier precipitation with the upslope component and a good south feed into the area, so will maintain the Winter Weather Watch for now and let the next shift an opportunity to evaluate the latest model output. Current output indicates anywhere from 4 to 7 inches of snow is possible above 1500 feet. Some stronger east winds over most of the area as the low moves north and weak ridging builds east over the offshore waters. West Coast and Western Interior...Rain continuing to spread north overnight, then tapering off from the southwest starting midday Monday. Rainfall amounts from 0.25 to 0.75 inch will be possible through Tuesday morning. A few flurries will be possible in the Kotzebue Sound region Tuesday as cold air starts working its way southeast. Stronger north to northeast winds over the Chukchi Sea, Bering Strait, St Lawrence Island, and the coastal areas this week with the strongest winds near the Bering Strait gusting to around 40 mph. Temperatures will slowly cool through the week. Central and Eastern Interior...Rain moving into the area this evening and the temperatures will continue to slowly cool. Rain will transition to more showery conditions by late Monday as the system progresses east. Wednesday will be mostly dry around the interior as we get a break between weather systems. Patchy fog, especially along and near the waterways will occur in the mornings. Strong gusty south winds around 70 mph near the Alaska Range passes will continue into Monday so have issued High Wind Warnings for those areas. Gusty winds around Delta Junction to around 50 mph tonight so will issue a Wind Advisory for Zone 223. Winds for the remainder of the area will generally be southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures the remainder of the week will see highs in the 40 to 50 range and lows in the 30s. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Hydrology...River continue to trend down, but expect them to start slowly rising as the rainfall Sunday and Monday makes its way into the mainstem streams and rivers starting Tuesday. No significant jumps in the river levels are expected with this event. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... high wind warning for AKZ225-AKZ226. Wind Advisory for AKZ223. Winter Storm Watch for AKZ205-AKZ206. Gale Warning for PKZ225. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB SEP 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 211539 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 839 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .DISCUSSION...Previous forecast is on track and no changes are needed. Skies are clear over most of the region. Marine stratus is along the coast, Coquille Basin and northwest Douglas County and this should erode during the morning with clear skies in the afternoon. However the stratus probably will hug along the coast into the afternoon. See previous discussion for details. -Petrucelli && .AVIATION...21/12Z TAF cycle...NASA SPoRT VIIRS Nighttime Microphyics RGB satellite imagery is showing IFR/LIFR stratus/fog over all of the coastal waters early this morning, extending inland about 20-30 miles north of Cape Blanco, but hugging the immediate coastline south of Cape Blanco. Expect IFR to yield to VFR late this morning or early this afternoon (around 20-21Z), but IFR will return to the coast this evening. VFR will prevail elsewhere for the next 24 hours. Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 245 AM PDT, Sunday 21 August 2016...The gradient between high pressure offshore and a thermal trough inland will tighten today into Monday. This will result in increasing northerly winds. Winds about 5 to 30 NM offshore from around Cape Blanco to Gold Beach will reach low end small craft advisory criteria this afternoon and evening. The thermal trough is expected to reach a peak of strength on Monday afternoon with advisory conditions developing over much of the waters. North winds will be weakest north of Cape Arago and also near shore south of Brookings. Winds will be strongest in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco with high end small craft or low end gale force winds. A modest weakening will follow with wind dominated seas continuing through the middle of the week. Spilde && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 250 AM PDT Sunday 21 August 2016... An upper level low will move across southern British Columbia and into southern Alberta today into Monday. This will allow an upper trough to swing through the area during this time frame. As a result, we'll see an uptick in west to northwest winds across the area. We won't be as blasted hot as we were the last few days, but afternoon humidities will still be near critical levels once again. Due to the combination of strong, gusty winds and humidities near critical levels (generally down to 10-15%, but even some single digit readings here and there) we've got myriad headlines out for the region. See the red flag warning message at PDXRFWMFR for the details. Haines 6 conditions are expected near the Withers Fire again this afternoon and evening, which is conducive for plume dominated fire. Humidities increase ever so slightly on Monday, but we'll still see some pretty gusty winds and fire weather watches remain up for portions of the east side. By Tuesday and Wednesday, winds should dial back a bit, though it will remain dry as a bone with mid slope and ridge recoveries in the poor to moderate range. Really, there is no significant rainfall in sight. Perhaps the silver lining to the dryness is that we have managed to avoid large lightning busts so far this summer. Still nothing on the horizon through the end of August lightning-wise. Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 449 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016/ DISCUSSION...Yesterday was another one for the record books as Medford, Roseburg, Klamath Falls, and Montague all set daily high temperature records for the third straight day. Temperatures will continue their downward trend today (but will still be 5-8 degrees above normal) and then even moreso tomorrow with temperatures back down around normal. This is all in response to lower heights as a trough moves along the U.S./Canadian border and an increase in onshore flow. Speaking of winds, the gradients will be fairly tight both today and tomorrow, so gusty afternoon west-northwest winds can be expected. Humidities remain low, especially east of the Cascades. This raises fire danger, and a variety of fire weather headlines are in effect to cover this. See PDXRFWMFR and/or the fire discussion below for details. There will be some weak instability over Siskiyou and Modoc counties today and tomorrow, but both moisture and forcing are lacking, so I wouldn't expect anything more than afternoon buildups. The models remain in decent agreement for the remainder of the week and show an upper ridge gradually building offshore and a trough over the middle of the country, which leaves us in the benign north flow between the two. The surface thermal trough will gradually reassert itself along the coast, which allows us to warm again, but relatively lower heights should prevent a repeat of our recent heat wave. The models then begin to differ for next weekend, but the preponderance of guidance suggests lowering heights over us as another trough comes down the B.C. coast. Models vary in strength and how far south the trough moves, but all suggest a dip in temperatures back toward normal with little to no chance for precipitation. -Wright AVIATION...21/12Z TAF cycle...NASA SPoRT VIIRS Nighttime Microphyics RGB satellite imagery is showing IFR/LIFR stratus/fog over all of the coastal waters early this morning, extending inland about 20-30 miles north of Cape Blanco, but hugging the immediate coastline south of Cape Blanco. Expect IFR to yield to VFR late this morning or early this afternoon (around 20-21Z), but IFR will return to the coast this evening. VFR will prevail elsewhere for the next 24 hours. Spilde MARINE...Updated 245 AM PDT, Sunday 21 August 2016...The gradient between high pressure offshore and a thermal trough inland will tighten today into Monday. This will result in increasing northerly winds. Winds about 5 to 30 NM offshore from around Cape Blanco to Gold Beach will reach low end small craft advisory criteria this afternoon and evening. The thermal trough is expected to reach a peak of strength on Monday afternoon with advisory conditions developing over much of the waters. North winds will be weakest north of Cape Arago and also near shore south of Brookings. Winds will be strongest in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco with high end small craft or low end gale force winds. A modest weakening will follow with wind dominated seas continuing through the middle of the week. Spilde FIRE WEATHER...Updated 250 AM PDT Sunday 21 August 2016... An upper level low will move across southern British Columbia and into southern Alberta today into Monday. This will allow an upper trough to swing through the area during this time frame. As a result, we'll see an uptick in west to northwest winds across the area. We won't be as blasted hot as we were the last few days, but afternoon humidities will still be near critical levels once again. Due to the combination of strong, gusty winds and humidities near critical levels (generally down to 10-15%, but even some single digit readings here and there) we've got myriad headlines out for the region. See the red flag warning message at PDXRFWMFR for the details. Haines 6 conditions are expected near the Withers Fire again this afternoon and evening, which is conducive for plume dominated fire. Humidities increase ever so slightly on Monday, but we'll still see some pretty gusty winds and fire weather watches remain up for portions of the east side. By Tuesday and Wednesday, winds should dial back a bit, though it will remain dry as a bone with mid slope and ridge recoveries in the poor to moderate range. Really, there is no significant rainfall in sight. Perhaps the silver lining to the dryness is that we have managed to avoid large lightning busts so far this summer. Still nothing on the horizon through the end of August lightning-wise. Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ624-625. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ622. CA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. $$ MAP/MAP/MAP  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 211149 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 449 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016 Updated AVIATION Section .DISCUSSION...Yesterday was another one for the record books as Medford, Roseburg, Klamath Falls, and Montague all set daily high temperature records for the third straight day. Temperatures will continue their downward trend today (but will still be 5-8 degrees above normal) and then even moreso tomorrow with temperatures back down around normal. This is all in response to lower heights as a trough moves along the U.S./Canadian border and an increase in onshore flow. Speaking of winds, the gradients will be fairly tight both today and tomorrow, so gusty afternoon west-northwest winds can be expected. Humidities remain low, especially east of the Cascades. This raises fire danger, and a variety of fire weather headlines are in effect to cover this. See PDXRFWMFR and/or the fire discussion below for details. There will be some weak instability over Siskiyou and Modoc counties today and tomorrow, but both moisture and forcing are lacking, so I wouldn't expect anything more than afternoon buildups. The models remain in decent agreement for the remainder of the week and show an upper ridge gradually building offshore and a trough over the middle of the country, which leaves us in the benign north flow between the two. The surface thermal trough will gradually reassert itself along the coast, which allows us to warm again, but relatively lower heights should prevent a repeat of our recent heat wave. The models then begin to differ for next weekend, but the preponderance of guidance suggests lowering heights over us as another trough comes down the B.C. coast. Models vary in strength and how far south the trough moves, but all suggest a dip in temperatures back toward normal with little to no chance for precipitation. -Wright && .AVIATION...21/12Z TAF cycle...NASA SPoRT VIIRS Nighttime Microphyics RGB satellite imagery is showing IFR/LIFR stratus/fog over all of the coastal waters early this morning, extending inland about 20-30 miles north of Cape Blanco, but hugging the immediate coastline south of Cape Blanco. Expect IFR to yield to VFR late this morning or early this afternoon (around 20-21Z), but IFR will return to the coast this evening. VFR will prevail elsewhere for the next 24 hours. Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 245 AM PDT, Sunday 21 August 2016...The gradient between high pressure offshore and a thermal trough inland will tighten today into Monday. This will result in increasing northerly winds. Winds about 5 to 30 NM offshore from around Cape Blanco to Gold Beach will reach low end small craft advisory criteria this afternoon and evening. The thermal trough is expected to reach a peak of strength on Monday afternoon with advisory conditions developing over much of the waters. North winds will be weakest north of Cape Arago and also near shore south of Brookings. Winds will be strongest in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco with high end small craft or low end gale force winds. A modest weakening will follow with wind dominated seas continuing through the middle of the week. Spilde && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 250 AM PDT Sunday 21 August 2016... An upper level low will move across southern British Columbia and into southern Alberta today into Monday. This will allow an upper trough to swing through the area during this time frame. As a result, we'll see an uptick in west to northwest winds across the area. We won't be as blasted hot as we were the last few days, but afternoon humidities will still be near critical levels once again. Due to the combination of strong, gusty winds and humidities near critical levels (generally down to 10-15%, but even some single digit readings here and there) we've got myriad headlines out for the region. See the red flag warning message at PDXRFWMFR for the details. Haines 6 conditions are expected near the Withers Fire again this afternoon and evening, which is conducive for plume dominated fire. Humidities increase ever so slightly on Monday, but we'll still see some pretty gusty winds and fire weather watches remain up for portions of the east side. By Tuesday and Wednesday, winds should dial back a bit, though it will remain dry as a bone with mid slope and ridge recoveries in the poor to moderate range. Really, there is no significant rainfall in sight. Perhaps the silver lining to the dryness is that we have managed to avoid large lightning busts so far this summer. Still nothing on the horizon through the end of August lightning-wise. Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ624-625. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ622. CA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 161042 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 642 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Wednesday then weaken. A strengthening inland trough will bring unsettled weather Thursday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Decided to go ahead and introduce a 20% rain chance for the Charleston Metro area from mid-morning through very early in the afternoon per steady trends from the RAP and H3R. Also initialized sky grids with a bit more cloud cover along the coast per latest VIIRS nighttime visible satellite imagery. Today: A persistent blocking pattern will remain in tact today across the Southeast U.S. with an expansive 598 dam anticyclone holding firm. Similar the past several days, the amount of convection will be well below climatological normals for mid- August given warm mid-level temperatures and some subsidence aloft. Expect another round of isolated showers/tstms to develop this afternoon within a weakly unstable airmass, mainly centered ahead of the pure sea breeze circulation. 20% pops look reasonable for this afternoon. Highs will range from the mid-upper 90s inland to the upper 80s at the beaches. The Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport is poised to see its 56th consecutive day of highs 90 degree or warmer, tying the period ending July 14th, 2011, with the longest span consecutive 90+ degree days. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tonight: Any spotty shower/tstm activity early will quickly dissipate after sunset. Expect another dry night, otherwise. Isolated showers/tstms could redevelop over the coastal waters after midnight, especially near the western all of the Gulf Stream, but any such activity should remain away from land. Could see patchy stratus and fog form after midnight, mainly in areas that receive spotty rainfall this afternoon. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to around 80 at the coast and Downtown Charleston. Few instances of lows in the lower 70s will be possible in sheltered areas well inland. Wednesday through Friday: Atlantic high pressure will be in place Wednesday, resulting in a typical summertime pattern. Models show gradually increasing PWATs, but they also indicate an area of PWATS less than 1.5" over a portion of our area. The exact location and size of this area varies per model, but they all seem to show it in some form, which would limit the convective potential. Given the variations and uncertainties, opted to go with slight chance POPs for the entire area. But this will probably need to be changed depending on what the upcoming model runs show. As we head into Wednesday night, the Atlantic high will begin to weaken/retreat east as a mid/upper level disturbance passes over the Mid-Atlantic states. The pattern should allow a trough to develop along the Southeast coast and PWATs to rise to 1.75-2" by Thursday. The increased moisture and forcing will support higher chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening, especially as the seabreeze moves inland. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal on Wednesday (the lower to mid 90s) as the Atlantic high maintains a hold over the Southeast. Thursday and Friday temperatures could make a run for the lower 90s across most of the area, but the limiting factor could be the precipitation coverage and when it begins. The earlier, the less maximum heating. The later, the more maximum heating. Overnight lows will remain mild each night, in the mid to upper 70s away from the coast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper air pattern will consist of a weak ridge moving over the northeastern states Friday night while heights gradually trend downward across the southeastern states. Saturday and Sunday the ridge axis will shift offshore while a strong upper level trough develops over the central U.S. The trough is forecasted to move over the east coast on Monday. At the surface, a trough should stay stretched across the southeast U.S. through the weekend. A cold front is expected to approach our area by late in the long term. This general weather pattern will lead to plenty of moisture and instability across our area during the long term. Expect good coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon, possibly lasting well into the nights. Additional convection should occur ahead of the front. As for temperatures, they will be near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR. Could see isolated showers in the vicinity of KSAV and KCHS from roughly 15-18z, but no impacts are expected given they should be fairly small. Extended Aviation Outlook: brief flight restrictions are possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday. && .MARINE... Today: A prevailing southeast flow regime will hold today with winds generally 10 kt or less. Some weak enhancement could occur along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor as the pure sea breeze circulation moves inland, but any enhancement is not expected to be significant. Seas will average 2-3 ft. Tonight: Southeast winds will gradually veer to the south through the night. Speeds will will remain less than 10 kt with seas 1-2 ft nearshore waters and 2-3 ft offshore waters. Wednesday through Saturday: Atlantic high pressure will bring south/southeast winds up to 10-15 kt Wednesday with seas 2-3 ft. Thursday the high will gradually weaken and move eastward while an upper-level disturbance passes north of our area. This synoptic pattern will support slightly higher winds, peaking around 15 kt Thursday night through Saturday. Winds should be the highest with the afternoon seabreeze and during nocturnal surging. Seas will be 2-3 ft. && .CLIMATE... Below are the top 5 runs of consecutive days with a high temperature of at least 90 degrees at the Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport (KSAV). Temperature records date back to 1874. 1. 56, ended 7/14/2011... 2. 55, ongoing through 8/15/2016... 3. 44, ended 8/8/1993... 4. 40, ended 8/14/2010... 5. 38, ended 9/2/2011... Below are the top 5 runs of consecutive days with a minimum temperature of 75 or warmer at the Charleston International Airport (KCHS). Temperature records date back to 1938. 1. 24, ongoing through 8/15/2016... 2. 16, ended 8/2/2011... 3. 15, ended 7/22/1981... 4. 14, ended 8/2/1999... 5. 12, ended 7/21/1988... Record high minimum temps for August 16th... KCHS: 78 set in 2010 and previous... KCXM: 82 set in 2007... KSAV: 78 set in 1942 and previous... && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ST  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 262221 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 221 PM AKDT THU MAY 26 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models continue for the most part to be in agreement and thus higher confidence in the forecast within the first 72 hours as the upper level high pressure developing over the Yukon Delta today moves towards the Seward Peninsula by Saturday night. There is some divergence between the GFS, NAM, Canadian, and ECMWF by Sunday in placement of the upper level high pressure system as it starts to move northwest towards Wrangle Island. The ECMWF shows an upper level low developing on Tuesday over Banks Island where the GFS develops this low pressure system later and further west. Main point in short term is that it will be warmer and drier conditions across much of the state. At the surface a thermal low and trough will develop over the upper Tanana valley Friday and strengthen slowly through the weekend. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range: Latest VIIRS satellite imagery and web cameras showing the stratus deck extending from Wainwright to Barter Island. Expect the typical fog development overnight tonight but not to the extent of dense fog criteria. Showers will also push northeast from Wainwright towards Barrow this evening then diminish. Easterly surface winds will increase Saturday through Monday with likely issuance of small craft/brisk wind advisories for marine areas extending from Point Lay through Demarcation Point as the surface pressure gradient tightens along the North Slope. Winds will decrease from west to east as the Arctic surface high pressure Banks Island. West Coast and Western Interior: Relatively quiet weather as the showers continue to diminish with high pressure building over the Yukon Delta area and moving toward Seward peninsula. Winds will become light as warming temperature trend begins and expected through middle next week. Central and Eastern Interior: Although the widespread precipitation amounts with this past system were lower with 0.05 to .20 inches, the highest amounts of 0.50 to 0.60 were seen in the Upper Chena River and Birch Creek River basins. However, the amounts will insignificant for river rises. Expect showers to diminish this evening over the Fortymile country. As mentioned the warmer and drying trend to occur over holiday weekend. Any shower activity on Saturday will be confined to isolated showers south of Chicken with no thunderstorm activity expected. && .FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will begin on Friday and will continue into the middle of next week. A weak thermal trough will develop over the upper Tanana valley Friday and persist through the weekend. No significant thunderstorm activity is expected through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... The flood watch for the Colville River was cancelled this morning since majority of the ice within the channels have melted. There may be some fluctuations of the Colville River with potential remaining ice coming downstream but not a great concern for impacts. As temperatures warming through weekend...there will be a concern for increased water rises on the Colville River. Elsewhere the snowmelt along the rivers over the weekend should not be much of a concern. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ MAK MAY 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 251048 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 248 AM AKDT WED MAY 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Excellent short term agreement, becomes a little fuzzier as we go through the weekend and into next week but the general consensus is keeping the ridge over the southwestern 2/3rds of the mainland through most of next week. Ridge does seem to building in just a tad faster than previous runs and that will help shutoff the moisture flowing into the interior on the zonal flow just a little sooner. Just going to nudge the temperatures a bit with no significant changes. Precipitation worked out pretty well yesterday using a blend with a lean to the NAM, so will work with that again today. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 529 hpa low over the Siberian coast 400 nm west of Wrangel island will continue to drift slowly north and west through Friday. A shortwave moved east across the interior last evening and will exit into Canada this morning. Flow has become westerly and will continue through tonight allowing a series of weak shortwaves to move east across the state. A 575 dam high just south of Cold Bay will become closed as it moves over Bristol Bay by Thursday morning. The high will eventually cut off the westerly flow across the state as it moves over the Unalakleet by Friday morning...then persists over the Norton Sound region through the weekend. Ridging over the northeastern arctic and Beaufort sea is moving northwest. A trough over the arctic coast and Brooks Range will slowly be pushed offshore as the ridge builds. At 850 HPA...Zero isotherm lies from Dawson Yukon to Delta Junction to Eek to St Matthew Island this morning and will lie from Dawson Yukon to Delta Junction to Nikolai to Buckland and then west by Thursday morning. It will continue to push north through Friday as the ridge builds and will lie From Old Crow Yukon to Barrow to Wrangel Island by Saturday morning with temperatures over the west coast rising to near 10 celsius above and eastern interior temperatures rising to around 5 celsius above. Temperatures will continue to warm through the middle of next week. SURFACE...Not a lot of change in the surface pattern over the past 24 hours. Stationary front lies over the Brooks range this morning with ridging over the high arctic associated with a 1024 mb high 600 nm north northwest of Barrow. High pressure persists south of the Brooks Range with a 1022 mb high over the middle Yukon valley associated with a 1030 mb high in the northeast Pacific 200 nm south of Kodiak Island. The front will remain over the Brooks Range through early Friday before is squeezed out by the ridge building over the west coast. a 1029 mb high will develop over Bristol Bay this evening and move to Norton Sound by late Thursday, then merges with the ridging over the arctic resulting in a 1029 mb center over the Seward peninsula and a 1033 mb high 200 nm north of Barrow by Friday morning. Ridging over the arctic will move slowly east through the weekend. A Thermal low will develop over the upper Tanana valley Friday and strengthen slowly through the weekend. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...The SPORT NPP VIIRS imagery at 24/2353Z indicates some patchy low clouds and areas of dense fog on the arctic coast and observations at 24/0900z are reporting dense fog at Deadhorse and Point Thomson. The GOES MVFR/IFR products at 25/0830Z indicate MVFR conditions over most of the coastal areas with just patches of IFR conditions east of Barrow. Will still need to watch for lower conditions in the other coastal areas with open water and the front wandering around to consider. As the ridge build over the west coast winds will begin to flip around and be from the west and northwest by Friday morning over most of the area. As long as the stationary front hangs around, expect some periods of precipitation in various forms from rain to snow, with a chance of freezing rain as well. Temperatures along the coast mainly in the 30s with temperatures in the Brooks range and inland plains in the 40s during the day and 20s at night through Friday then a few degrees warmer through next week. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...West flow is already spreading showers over the lower Yukon delta and Norton Sound and that will continue through the day. As the ridge build north tonight the west flow shifts north as well and will be over the Bering Strait, chukchi sea, and Kotzebue Sound tonight through late Thursday. Not seeing a lot of Thunderstorm activity with this but would not be completely surprised by a few strikes. Most areas will see 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch or rain through Thursday with higher amounts of around an inch possible in the Nulato hills and the south slopes of the Brooks Range. Temperatures moderated by the clouds and showers the next 36 hours then a fairly sharp warming trend as the ridge moves over the area. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Showers will continue to spread east across the central and eastern interior this morning and persist into the early afternoon Thursday before coming to and end. Rainfall amounts of up to 3/4 of an inch will be possible. Some of the heavier rain will be in the upper Chena basin, the White mountains, and Ray mountains. Slight chance of a Thunderstorm today in the Fortymile country. Winds will generally be light from the west to northwest. Temperatures slightly below normal through Friday then a warming trend that will continue into the middle of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Generally wet with relatively high CWR values across the west coast and interior the next couple days. Only a slight chance of Thunderstorms over the Fortymile country today. Warming and drying trend beginning Friday will continue through at least the middle of next week. && .HYDROLOGY...Flood Watch for the Colville continues through this morning as some ice jams have formed and are of concern as breakup continues on the north slope. Look for updates to the Flood Watch later this morning. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch for AKZ203. && $$ SDB MAY 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 192031 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1231 PM AKDT THU MAY 19 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Continued good run to run continuity. Initialized well against the 18Z surface analysis. There are some issues as they move into the extended periods, but most of that can be smoothed out by using an equal blend. Models clearly indicate a move westerly flow starting Monday that will put the west coast and interior Alaska in a much wetter regime for much of next week. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...Stacked low over the bering sea with 535 dam centers over the Pribilofs and St Lawrence island will drift a bit west as the centers merge into a 527 dam low 150 nm west of St Matthew island by Friday morning. The low then drifts over St Matthew island by Sunday morning as it weakens. Ridging over Prince William Sound today will continue to build north over the eastern interior with 558 dam heights reaching north to Fort Yukon Friday evening. A weak shortwave will move north across the interior late Thursday. By Friday afternoon a 540 dam low will move over Sand Point as it swings north around the Bering Sea low with a stronger shortwave moving over the southwest mainland early Saturday, and by late Saturday it will lie from Norton Sound to Prince William Sound as it continues around the low. On Sunday the shortwave will stall over the western Alaska range and upper Tanana valley. SURFACE...Weak ridging over the eastern interior will weaken and be shoved east as the front migrates back to the north and will eventually be over the Brooks range by Monday morning. Thermal trough develops in the upper Tanana valley Friday and will drift north and east with the front. Out west is a bit messy with the 1000 mb low over the eastern Bering sea remaining stationary into Saturday then being absorbed into a low over Siberia. A rapidly moving low in the north Pacific will move to Sand Point by Friday evening, and to the lower Yukon Delta at 1003 mb by Saturday morning, then over the Chukchi sea by late Saturday then it also gets absorbed into the low over Siberia. To the north a 1022 mb high in the Siberian arctic will move east to 80n 180 by Friday morning and continues east through Saturday evening before becoming stationary near 80n 140w late Saturday night. To the south weak ridging from a 1038 mb low in the northeast Pacific will persist over the eastern interior tonight then gets cutoff as the thermal low develops. A transitory 1033 mb high in the north Pacific will move east with ridging extending north over the southwest mainland late Saturday, then over the Central and eastern interior on Sunday. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...The LEO-NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics product at 19/1530Z and the GOES MVFR/IFR products at 19/1730Z indicate a large swath of low clouds and areas of poor visibility stretching from Banks island Canada west over the Chukchi sea. It also indicates that there is not much low clouds over MacKenzie bay and vicinity. Expect the lower clouds to continue over Barrow and the northwest coast with some clearing occurring over the areas to the east of Barrow as the arctic boundary drifts a bit north. Expect a few flurries in the cloudy areas. Not a lot of wind in the area so most areas will see east winds at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures on the coast will be in the 20s and 30s for the most part with highs over the plains and parts of the Brooks range reaching into the 50s. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Low in the Bering sea will continue to spin showers north over the area. Expect a break this evening and overnight between waves, but it will only be for a few hours. Not seeing a lot of precipitation with any of the waves, but some coastal areas may approach half an inch over the weekend. South to east winds across the area with strongest winds on the Bering strait coast and St Lawrence island. Winds will generally 5 to 15 mph with winds to 25 mph in those windy coastal areas. A little warmer the next day or so for most areas as weak warm air advects north into the area, then cooling as the low drags some colder air out of Siberia to the coast. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Will be pretty quiet this weekend. As the front lifts back to the north expect some sprinkles over the area tonight, then after that a weak chinook will dry things out for the most part with only some isolated showers possible to the west of Manley Hot Springs Friday. Better chance for some isolated showers on Saturday as the Thermal trough develops over the upper Tanana valley and gets a little help from the front and a shortwave moving north across the area. Areas in the eastern interior with the best chance for showers through Saturday will be the White mountains and Fortymile country. Sunday the best chances will be north of Chicken, east of Fort Yukon, and over the eastern Brooks range. Warmer temperatures through Saturday with highs reaching into the 70s, then a slight cooling trend. && .FIRE WEATHER...Continues to be pretty quiet. Some warming and drying in the central and eastern interior the next couple days, but temperatures will stay in the 70s and relative humidity values will be around 30 percent. Out west cloudy with showers and cooler temperatures will persist through most of the weekend. Looking into next week the midlevel westerlies kick in for a bit so that will inhibit convection over the area for most of next week. && .HYDROLOGY...Continued Flood Watch for the Colville River through Saturday. Warmer inland temperatures could increase runoff into the basin, so will keep a sharp eye on the area. Elevated river levels continue on the Porcupine river, but they continue to fall at Old Crow and that will continue through the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch for AKZ203. && $$ SDB MAY 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 262057 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1257 PM AKDT TUE APR 26 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND MAINTAINS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 144 HOURS. JUST NOT SEEING A LOT OF CHANGES AT THE SURFACE AS MODELS MAINTAIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH LEESIDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL LOW ENHANCES THE LEESIDE TROUGH DURING THE DAY AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. WILL USE AN EQUAL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECASTS...BUT MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THAT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALREADY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE WAY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE...SO WILL USE MAINLY THE AKNAMDNG5 WITH SOME MINOR POST EDITING TO ADD A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE. NOT MUCH SHOWING UP FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERY ACTIVITY THOUGH. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING OVER THE BROOKS RANGE IS SLOWLY SLIDING NORTH AND WILL BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL LOW REMAINS OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A 521 DAM LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF HOMER AND A 518 DAM LOW OVER COLD BAY WILL WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE 508 DAM LOW THAT WILL BE 200 NM SOUTH OF ATKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA EAST OVER KODIAK ISLAND THEN SOUTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST TO BE 50 NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING NORTH TO LIE FROM THE PRIBILOFS TO ANCHORAGE TO WATSON LAKE YUKON...THEN BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 100 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WITH THE TROUGH LYING FROM CAPE NEWENHAM TO FAIRBANKS TO FORT MCPHERSON YUKON BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE NORTHWEST PUSHING THE RIDGING JUST OFFSHORE. AT 850 HPA...SLIGHT COOLING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...THEN THEY WARM BACK UP TO AROUND THE ZERO MARK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SURFACE...SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS HOLDS THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AND LEESIDE...THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...AS WELL AS AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. DECAYING FRONTS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...JUST NOT SEEING ANYTHING TO CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY. STRATUS ON THE 26/1601Z SPORT NPP VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY MUCH IN THE SAME PLACE IT WAS ON MONDAY AND NO REASON FOR IT TO CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND OVER THE FLATS ARE LIGHTER. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE COAST...THIS DOES PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...BUT THEY WILL BE LIGHT. THE DECAYING FRONT MOVING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL ALSO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT IN MANY AREAS. WINDS MAINLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION OF COURSE IS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST WHICH WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AS RIDGING OVER CHUKOTKA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT UP OVER THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AS WELL AS SOUTH OF FORT YUKON AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SAME AREAS WEDNESDAY...THEN MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND AREAS WHERE THE WATER IS OPENING UP. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS AT 5 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT IN THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOONS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH AS THE THERMAL LOW STRENGTHENS. && .FIRE WEATHER...JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY GOOD WITH THE EARLY SEASON CONVECTIVE NUMBERS SO NOT PUTTING A LOT OF WEIGHT IN THEM. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE DECAYING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER AND DEWPOINTS RISE A BIT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. GREENUP IN THE TANANA VALLEY WAS RECORDED BY THE FAIRBANKS OFFICE TODAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING FOR ZONES PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB APR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 242003 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1203 PM AKDT SUN APR 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. SURFACE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. SURFACE IS A MORE CONFUSED AS THE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH A BIT...BUT OVERALL THEY SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THINGS UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN SOLUTIONS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH 546 DAM HEIGHTS AS FAR WEST AS THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST...AND 552 HEIGHTS OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY TODAY. THE RIDGE PULLS BACK A BIT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH 546 HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE RIDGE IS PULLING BACK BECAUSE A 507 DAM LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC IS SPINNING A SHORTWAVE NORTH THAT WILL BE OVER THE GULF COAST MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST AND BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO PUSH THE RIDGE A BIT TO THE NORTH WITH THE AXIS MOVING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 510 DAM LOW MOVES TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS PUSHING A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE. SURFACE...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES NORTH SO DOES THE THERMAL TROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE AROUND A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED HERE. STRATUS IS PRETTY OBVIOUS ON THE 24/1319Z SPORT NPP VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGE AND COVERS THE COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE INLAND PLAINS AREAS THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE BARTER ISLAND AREA...BUT OTHERWISE NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THE STRATUS TO GO AWAY. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. BROOKS RANGE WILL STAY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 FOR MOST AREAS TODAY WILL PICK UP A BIT MONDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND TO 15 TO 30 MPH ON TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET OUT HERE ALSO. SOME CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AS THEY ARE MOSTLY MID CLOUDS. WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN THE DECAYING FRONTAL BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ACROSS THE LOW YUKON DELTA THIS WEEK PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION OF COURSE IS ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST WHICH WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING...THEN OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF REALLY NICE WARM AND DRY DAYS. THERE WILL BE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTER SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN IS STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE UPPER YUKON AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PUSHED NORTH AND EAST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AROUND THE THERMAL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIDGE ALOFT AND THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING PRETTY UNSTABLE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA AND MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB APR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KLIX 261329 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 829 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016 ...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... KLIX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 J/KG NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH AN INVERSION THAT REACHED UP TO 3000 FEET. NUCAPS SOUNDINGS FROM THE NPP VIIRS PASS AROUND 730Z SOUTH OF THE FRONT ALSO INDICATED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONGER CORES MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL WITH KLIX FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 13000 FEET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS A LITTLE OVER AN INCH. GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LOW LEVELS ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS TURN A LITTLE MORE FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 131 KNOTS WAS AT 39000 FEET. 12Z BALLOON INFO: A ROUTINE FLIGHT BURSTING OVER AGRICOLA 86 MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE AFTER ASCENDING FOR 103 MINUTES. ANSORGE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2016/ SYNOPSIS...L/W TROUGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH THE TROUGH AXIS DRAPED NE TO SW FROM CNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO NV. SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE GRT LAKES WITH OUR STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AND INTO THE NRN GULF. OUR COLD FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT WAS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WHILE BROAD LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. /CAB/ SHORT TERM...IT HAS BEEN QUIET...COOL...AND MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY 7Z WITH TEMPS LIKELY DROPPING ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE. WET FCST IN STORE FOR EASTER BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR BUT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE COASTS. AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVNG AND OVERNIGHT HRS THE STALLED BNDRY SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL DRIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUN MORNING. WAA SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL LIKELY PENETRATE WELL INLAND LATE THIS EVNG WITH NUM TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AFTER 5Z AND THROUGH 20Z TOMORROW. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME AS PWS WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX VALUES OF NEAR 38K. WIDESPREAD 1- 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MS VALLEY SUN EVNG AND THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT BUT COULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF PRETTY QUICK LATE SUN AFTN AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER. /CAB/ LONG TERM...AS MENTIONED THE LAST FEW DAYS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH LIKE THIS PAST WEEK BEGINNING...RATHER QUIET. COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT SHOULD DRY THE AREA OUT WITH MOISTURE DISPLACED SOUTH. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO STALL ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS IT MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE WRN CONUS PUTTING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT. AS THE OLD BNDRY OVER THE GULF DRIFTS BACK NORTH...MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA WED AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SAT. /CAB/ AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 12Z CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A FRONT BACKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN STARTING NEAR THE COAST AND MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY SCATTERED UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. 98/SO MARINE...CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS A OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES OVER THE AREA. EVEN WITH THE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OVERALL ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT THAT TIME. 98/SO DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES... MODERATE RIVER FLOODING. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 78 63 75 53 / 10 50 90 20 BTR 78 65 78 56 / 10 60 80 20 ASD 76 66 74 60 / 20 60 90 20 MSY 75 66 76 62 / 20 70 80 20 GPT 74 66 72 62 / 20 60 90 20 PQL 75 66 73 62 / 30 60 80 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 241051 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 251 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. CURRENT RUNS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE BY NUDGING TO A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS AND NUDGING THE TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK RIDGE WITH 537 DAM CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND 539 DAM HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY WILL MERGE INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTATIONS WITH A 542 DAM CENTER OVER CORDOVA BY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN AND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC TO THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A 498 DAM CENTER NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND...A 524 DAM CENTER OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND A 521 DAM CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE LOWER HALF SWINGS EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND AT 524 DAM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROUGH WILL ABSORB SOME ENERGY AND SWING EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING INTO CANADA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BEHIND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...THEN BUILDS NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BEHIND THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE. AT 850 HPA...SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ARCTIC COAST. SURFACE...BENIGN FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND ARCTIC COAST AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON TODAY. TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT GETS SOME REINFORCEMENT ALOFT AND A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOVING NORTH TO THE UPPER KOBUK BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EAST OVER THE UPPER PORCUPINE RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF BARROW THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT LEO NPP VIIRS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 24/0839Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF STRATUS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA THROUGH THE STRAIT...OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AND THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WEST OF BARTER ISLAND. AREA HAS NOT MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALSO SHOWS STRATUS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 24/0845Z SHOWS MOST OF THE STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC IS MVFR...BUT THERE ARE PATCHES OF LIFR NEAR DEADHORSE AND THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE. STRATUS...SOME FLURRIES...AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST. WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THEN SWITCH AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY SNOW AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA...AND THE UPPER KOBUK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND NORTH OF AMBLER IN THE UPPER KOBUK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS THAT GET SNOW. WILL BE ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 215...216...AND 217. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AT 10 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT TO 35 MPH ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE IT WARMS UP AGAIN. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEST OF NENANA FRIDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE DECIDING IF IT WARRANTS ADVISORIES. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TURNING FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TO 25 TO 40 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 162102 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 102 PM AKDT WED MAR 16 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIVERGENCE BEYOND 120 HOURS IN THE MAIN FEATURES. GO WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DATABASE...THEN BLEND IN SOME SREF TO INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WITH A SLOWLY FILLING 522 DAM LOW OVER INDIAN MOUNTAIN THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE OVER ARCTIC VILLAGE AT 523 DAM BY 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER FLAXMAN ISLAND BY 10 PM THURSDAY EVENING AS IT ABSORBS A 523 DAM LOW THAT MOVES OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC...THEN BACKS OVER DEADHORSE BY 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROPS BACK TO THE SOUTH OVER INDIAN MOUNTAIN BY 10 PM FRIDAY EVENING...AND OVER ANVIK BY 4 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL SPIN AROUND THE LOW AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SPLIT WITH A 544 DAM CENTER MOVING FROM OVER THE PRIBILOFS TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY 4 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SPLITTING AGAIN WITH A 548 DAM HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY AND A 549 DAM HIGH OVER THE SIBERIAN COAST SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARCTIC STARTING FRIDAY AND EXTEND TO BANKS ISLAND BY 4 PM SUNDAY WITH A 543 DAM HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH CHANGE...IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SO EXPECT OVERNIGHT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL SHARPLY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SATELLITE...SPORT 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS VIIRS AT 16/1350Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR EAST OF GALENA AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT...AS EXPECTED AND NOT SEEING AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW IMAGES. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES...BUT IT IS LOOKING PRETTY CLUTTERED WITH A 1019 MB LOW OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...A 1027 MB LOW OVER THE MIDDLE KOYUKUK...A 1036 MB HIGH OVER ATQASUK...AND A 1034 MB HIGH CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE LOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL MOVE NORTH TO ARCTIC VILLAGE WITH A 1034 MB HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND IT...THE HIGH OVER ATQASUK WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS AT 1039 MB...AND THE HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTH TO WRANGEL ISLAND AT 1045 MB. BY FRIDAY MORNING IT ALL RETURNS TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE MAJOR FEATURES WILL BE A 976 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...AND A 1053 MB HIGH A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND EXTEND FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND NORTHEAST OVER BEAVER CREEK YUKON TERRITORY TO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER FOR THE INTERIOR AS IT ROTATES TO THE WEST INTO THE INTERIOR SATURDAY AND INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...RELATIVE QUIET CONTINUES TODAY...BUT EXPECT SOME SNOW EAST OF BARROW THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST IN THE BROOKS RANGE. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN CLEAR AREAS WEST OF DEADHORSE AS SOME COLDER AIR IS DRAGGED SOUTH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE GENERALLY NORTH FLOW. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...BUT THEY START PICKING UP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AT 20 TO 40 MPH FROM THE NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY IN THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION...UPPER YUKON FROM EAGLE SOUTH WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES...AND THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY WITH UP TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW. EXPECT CLEARING OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA AND YUKON FLATS TONIGHT...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SINKS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AND THE INVERTED TROUGH ROTATES WEST THE SNOW WILL MOVE BACK WEST INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS TO 35 MPH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL DRAMATICALLY IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20 BELOW. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 152030 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1230 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEY ONLY DIVERGE A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THEY APPEAR TO HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ORIENTATION OVER THE STATE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DATABASE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SET UP OVER THE STATE AND WITH A 514 DAM LOW OVER HUSLIA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SLOWLY PULL OUT TO THE NORTH TO BE OVER DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN ABSORBS A 520 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC...AND ROTATES SOUTH TO OVER MANLEY HOT SPRINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A 549 DAM HIGH MOVING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE SPLITS AS THE LOW OVER DEADHORSE MOVES SOUTH WITH A 540 DAM HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE GULF OF ANADYR...AND NORTH TO A 547 DAM HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS OVER FAIRBANKS AND AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN. SATELLITE...SPORT 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMPOSITE OF VIIRS AT 15/1408Z AND MODIS AT 15/1422Z CLEARLY SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. IT ALSO INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 15/1500Z INDICATES MOST OF THE STRATUS IS OF THE MVFR VARIETY...THOUGH THERE IS A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A 999 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR DAWSON YUKON TERRITORY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATES. A SHARP RIDGE WITH A 1034 MB CENTER NEAR UMIAT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WEST OVER THE AREA WITH A 1039 MB CENTER NEAR BANKS ISLAND...AND A 1041 MB CENTER OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY. ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...RELATIVELY QUIET...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF DEADHORSE AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH IN THE PASSES THIS EVENING WILL TAPER DOWN TO VARIABLE AT 10 OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR 205 AND 206 OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAGS COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE YUKON DELTA...SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUSLIA AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG NORTH WINDS IN AND NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING TO 30 MPH WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST...TO BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TANANA VALLEY...AND FLATS WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION...WHITE MOUNTAINS...YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND THE UPPER KOYUKUK BASIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION IS THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 031245 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 345 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 03/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE...AND ARE EVEN TRENDING THE SAME DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM RUN TO RUN SO AGAIN WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 140W WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BE 500 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST TO MACKENZIE BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE AND LIES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC. THE 515 DAM LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY. A 534 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 13 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS CHANGING AS THE 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 140W WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND SLIPS SOUTHWEST TO 77N 155W BY LATE FRIDAY...AND 966 MB LOW NEAR 48N 150W PERSISTS BUT SWINGS A 974 MB LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS OF THE STATE. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0655Z IS AGAIN FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES. USING THE AVHRR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 03/0900Z THEY INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTON SOUND ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...PLAINS...AND BROOKS RANGE TO MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES TO MOVE ON...SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WINTER WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS WINDS KICK UP NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING IN THE BERING STRAIT AND KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND SOME DENSE FOG IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INCREASING WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 230 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AT 06Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. THE SEMI PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO AND A HALF MONTHS DOES TRANSITION A BIT WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT TRANSITIONS RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN SO WILL STICK TO JUST MAKING MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 160W WILL SLIDE EAST A BIT AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS DRIFTING BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. A 527 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE BAY TODAY AND MOVE WEST IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE MERGING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY. A 537 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER YAKUTAT MOVES WEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER KANTISHNA THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL SEE THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS BY SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEAK WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE 1042 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 135W PERSISTS BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA BUILDS TO 1036 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND...AND THE 970 MB LOW NEAR 45N 148W DRIFTS NORTH WITH A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 48N 135W THURSDAY AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0717Z IS FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS WITH THE LITTLE LOW SPINNING UP AROUND MACKENZIE BAY AND SPREADING SOME SNOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN...THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND EVEN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE..STRATUS...PATCHY FOG...A FEW FLURRIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE SEWARD PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING OR MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THAT WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 142212 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 112 PM AKST SUN FEB 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 84 HOURS. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN HANDLING THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA...BUT THAT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A PATTERN CHANGE COMING AS IT WILL BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE WEST COAST MID WEEK. EXTENDED PERIOD SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER...SO WILL FOLLOW HPC LEAD AND LEAN ON THE MODELS MEANS. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND LEANING ON THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING OVER MOST OF ALASKA WILL TRANSITION TO A BROAD OPEN TROUGH OVER MOST OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL RETREAT SOUTHEAST INTO CANADA. A 501 DAM LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 250 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE SIBERIAN COAST. AS THE BROAD TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO CANADA TUESDAY A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AND A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUES AROUND THE LOW COMPLEX IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...THIS WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A STRONG LOW MOVES OVER THE BERING SEA AND SENDS A WEATHER FRONT TO THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL HANG ON OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE WITH SOME OF THE LEFT OVER ENERGY MERGING WITH A LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND MOVING EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED A BIT ALONG THE COAST...CANCELLED THE WARNING FOR ZONE 201 EARLIER...BUT CONDITIONS ARE HANGING ON THE RAGGED EDGE OF A BLIZZARD SO WILL CONTINUE THEM FOR ZONES 202...203...AND 204. STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS...SO THE ADVISORY FOR THE PLAINS IN ZONE 206 WILL ALSO BE CANCELLED. WINDS HAVE ALSO SWUNG AROUND TO A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST SO THEY ARE PICKING UP MORE SNOW TODAY THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF WHEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS THE NAM HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THEM IT BRINGS THE WINDS DOWN OVERNIGHT...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUITE A BIT EARLY MONDAY. SPORT NPP VIIRS AT 14/1829Z SHOWS A GOOD BAND OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WEST OF BARROW...AND SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE COAST FROM BARROW EAST. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS CAN ALSO BE SEEN TO THE EAST OF BARROW. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST AND STILL LIES FROM MEKORYUK TO KOYUK TO NOATAK TO POINT LAY WITH A BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND FLURRIES THAT CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON THE GOES PRODUCTS AS WELL AS THE SPORT 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS NPP VIIRS PRODUCT. IT HAS REMAINED STATIONARY THE LAST 24 HOURS BUT DOES SEEM TO BE DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT IT TO MOVE AND DISSIPATE AS THE BUBBLE HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. WINDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE 5 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR AS THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THEN CLEARING LATE TUESDAY AND A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR IS PULLED SOUTH. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE GAP WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 30 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230. && $$ SDB FEB 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 132143 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1243 PM AKST SAT FEB 13 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE. THERE IS SOME CONFUSION ON TUESDAY IN HANDLING THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA...BUT THAT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IF ANY EFFECT ON OUR FORECAST AREA. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS AS THEY ARE ALL OVER...SO WILL FOLLOW HPC LEAD AND LEAN ON THE ECMWF FOR NOW. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND LEANING ON THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. A 501 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE NORTH TO BE 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN 100 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RECEDE INTO CANADA AS A 510 DAM LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF UNALASKA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AT 513 DAM AND A 517 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER COOK INLET. THE TROUGH WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH A 520 DAM LOW OVER SAND POINT EARLY MONDAY AND WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MERGES WITH A LOW THAT MOVES OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. RIDGING WILL PUSH NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. RIDGING CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST OVER THE ARCTIC AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...A PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN AS THE CENTER DRIFTS NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH A 987 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MONDAY AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TUESDAY. A 966 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA AT 958 MB...THEN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A WEATHER FRONT SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA TO LIE FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY EVENING. A 1020 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE BAY EARLY TUESDAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND NORTHERN PART OF THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AND VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW IMPROVES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS...FLURRIES AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS ONSHORE...EASTERLY FLOW...CONTINUES WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LET UP A LITTLE...BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH LOWER THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SPORT NPP VIIRS PRODUCT AT 13/1710Z SHOWS THE STRATUS IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND EXTENDING EAST OVER MACKENZIE BAY AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST LIES FROM MEKORYUK TO KOYUK TO NOATAK WITH A BAND OF LOW STRATUS AND FLURRIES THAT CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON THE GOES PRODUCTS AS WELL AS THE SPORT MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...SO EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE IN PLACE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT MOVES NORTH. WINDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE 5 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT WINDS INLAND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 50 MPH INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPIH 111037 AFDPIH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID 337 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES OVER EAST IDAHO. SFC BASED INVERSIONS REMAIN BUT MOST FOG APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN HIGHLAND AREAS SOUTH OF POCATELLO. LATEST VIIRS IMAGERY SHOWS THIS REGION EXTREMELY WELL WITH ANOTHER SMALL POCKET ALONG INTERSTATE 15 NORTH OF IDAHO FALLS. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON TRIES TO SLIDE INTO THE RIDGE EARLY TODAY AND MAY BE ENOUGH ASSOCIATED MIXING TO PREVENT FOG FROM SPREADING TOO FAR FROM CURRENT LOCATIONS. STRONGER SHORTWAVE AXIS STILL SHIFTING INTO THE CA/OR COAST THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO TOP RIDGE ALONG DIVIDE LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST GFS SPREADS PRECIP JUST INTO NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING WHILE LATEST NAM KEEPS MOISTURE NORTH. HAVE ALLOWED WEAK POPS TO DROP INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OVERNIGHT WITH VERY WEAK QPF/SNOW. OTHERWISE BELIEVE SFC INVERSIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER PERSISTENCE. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH SHORTWAVE AXIS DROPPING THROUGH WA/OR FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM SPREAD PRECIP INTO WESTERN EDGES OF CENTRAL MTN REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE AXIS DRIVES THROUGH EAST IDAHO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH PRECIP GENERALLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST BUT REMAINING FOCUSED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE WEAKENED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTH BASED ON 00Z RUNS BUT EARLY LOOK AT 06Z RUNS HAVE NAM BRINGING INTRODUCING MORE QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS...QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE DOES MEAN TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SYSTEM REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH LESS THAN 3IN TOTALS EVEN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SFC FRONT DRIVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY WITH FAVORABLE SFC GRADIENT AND 30-40KT 700MB WINDS. HAVE KEPT INCREASED WINDS DURING THE DAY BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DMH .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN FOR SUNDAY EXPECTED TO LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WITH RAIN IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY/LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15-25MPH REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH LIKELY HIGHER SPEEDS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD IN EARLY WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS THE WARMEST WE'VE SEEN IN A WHILE. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN GFS...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM. EUROPEAN SOLUTION NOT SHOWING ANY RAIN/SNOW UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY (CANADIAN FOLLOWING SUITE). GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATE WEDNESDAY. DID NOT WANT TO AMEND FORECAST AND LEFT PREVIOUS WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS IS AT THIS TIME. NP/DMH && .AVIATION...AREAS OF MIST AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT VALLEY LOCATIONS...PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OCCASIONALLY AS WELL. FOG MAY ONCE MORE REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD BE IMPROVING MID-MORNING TO VFR CONDITIONS AND IF THEY ARE TO REDUCE TONIGHT WOULD BE AFTER 00Z. BURLEY COULD REDUCE EARLIER THAN THIS IN THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS TO IFR STRATUS DECKS - VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT BUT IT IS POSSIBLE. SUN VALLEY WILL PERSIST WILL LIGHT WINDS AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NP/DMH && .AIR STAGNATION...HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE INVERSIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH FOG SETTLING IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF POCATELLO. POOR AIR QUALITY CONTINUES IN THE CACHE VALLEY. DESPITE WEAK FEATURE TOPPING THE RIDGE TONIGHT...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. DIMINISHED AIR QUALITY AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL FINALLY TOPPLE THE RIDGE SATURDAY BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY INCREASED WINDS TO THE REGION. THEREFORE AIR QUALITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND. DMH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 101130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH 540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 091157 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 257 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEY REMAIN IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF SOME OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. WILL LEAN ON A PRETTY EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN LEAN TOWARD NAM THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR...THEN TOWARD THE GFS WHEN THE NAM RUN ENDS AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE WEST. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CUT OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE UPPER KOBUK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 509 DAM. A 536 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE PART OF THE RIDGE THAT GETS CUT OFF AND WILL MOVE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTH IN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. SURFACE...A 1044 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN THIS MORNING THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE IN...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM 08/2159Z...08/2233Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT TODAY WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE TODAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THE AREA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING FRONT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TANANA EAST AND NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 241046 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 446 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A TROUGH EXITING THE EAST COAST (THIS WAS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN SNOW STORM)...WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING S-N ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WARMING AND DRY PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE UNDERNEATH THE ENCROACHING RIDGE FOR TODAY AND MOST OF MONDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK BUT THEN A WARMING PATTERN IS LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MORE DETAILS BELOW. LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT SNOWPACK HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EARLY THIS MORNING AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER THE REGION. SOME DETAILS OF THE SNOWPACK CAN EVEN BE SEEN IN VIIRS DAY-NIGHT BAND IMAGERY PROVIDED BY NASA SPORT. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL ALSO BE ABUNDANT AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND TODAY...BUT DON'T EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP AS TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 40S. NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL WARMER IN THE SUNSHINE. RIVER UPDATE: THE BIG NANCE CREEK HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND HAS NOW FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD CANCELLATION WAS JUST ISSUED THERE. THE PAINT ROCK RIVER (AS MEASURED IN WOODVILLE) APPEARS TO BE CRESTING JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT VALUES HAVE WAVERED A BIT RECENTLY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS ONE CLOSELY BUT WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WARNING GOING FOR NOW UNTIL CONTINUED DATA SUGGESTS THE RIVER HAS INDEED CRESTED. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY MOIST S-SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE TN VALLEY. SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT GENERALLY CONFINED TO LAYERS AOB 850 MB MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. THE CURRENT SUITE OF REGIONAL/GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS MAY TAKE PLACE ALONG A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR THAT WILL SLICE SW-NE ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL MOSTLY BE STRATIFORM...SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME INSTABILITY NOTED BETWEEN 700-500 MB. THUNDER WILL NOT BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME HOWEVER OWING TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN FUTURE DATA UPDATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY TOTAL UP TO ABOUT AN INCH OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SOME MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING MAY OCCUR BASED ON THE RELATIVELY HIGH SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT FROM RECENT RAINS. THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REINFORCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TN VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN SWRLY FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY INTO WED. HOWEVER...FLOW WILL BECOME N-NWRLY BELOW ABOUT 700MB INTO EARLY WED. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH...SOME WEAK ASCENT CENTERED IN THE MID-LVLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATE TUES NIGHT AND WED. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE CLOSE TO SUPPORTING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW...BUT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BETWEEN ~850-700 MB MAY PREVENT HYDROMETEORS FROM REACHING THE SFC. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME FCST PERSISTENCE AND RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION OF -RA/-SN FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE FAR NE. ANYWAY...ANY PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE LIGHT RIGHT NOW AND NOT REALLY IMPACTFUL. NEVERTHELESS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A BRIEF COOLDOWN WILL FOLLOW AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURS/FRI. BUT...A LARGER WARMUP MAY BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH LOOKS SET TO DIG IN THE WESTERN CONUS. KDW && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1054 PM CST SAT JAN 23 2016/ FOR 06Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. 007 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 45 32 56 47 / 0 0 10 70 SHOALS 46 33 58 47 / 0 0 20 80 VINEMONT 46 32 56 48 / 0 0 10 70 FAYETTEVILLE 43 30 53 45 / 0 0 10 70 ALBERTVILLE 45 32 54 48 / 0 0 10 60 FORT PAYNE 43 31 55 45 / 0 0 10 50 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 130825 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 325 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ALLOWING THE REGION TO TREND BACK TOWARDS MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS (RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF -22C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR) AND IS PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR AREAS OF UPPER MICHIGAN FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. THOSE WINDS ARE DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FROM A HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS. THAT RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN TODAY AS HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THUS...EXPECT BL WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BACK TO A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BUT A LAKE INDUCED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST- NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH OF THAT. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT AREA TO BE THE FOCUS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW TODAY. BEFORE GETTING INTO THE LAKE EFFECT DETAILS...A QUICK NOTE ON THE TEMPERATURES. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT WHILE A POCKET OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM KIWD TO KLNL. THIS CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND WITH WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5MPH...ARE SEEING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -10 AND - 20F IN THOSE AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES AND WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO STAY SIMILAR TO CURRENT VALUES BUT COULD SEE THEM BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE LOW -20S. NOW FOR THE EASTERN CWA LAKE EFFECT...HAVE SEEN THE BACKING WINDS (WEST-SOUTHWEST AT GRANITE ISLAND AND MUNISING) INFLUENCING THE BANDS OVER THE EAST. WHILE THEY HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT GRAND MARAIS (FOCUSED ON THE 12 MILE BEACH AREA OF PICTURED ROCKS)...RADAR TRENDS TO THE NORTH OF MARQUETTE ARE NOW STARTING TO SHOW A NORTHEASTWARD LIFT TO THE DOMINATE BAND AND EXPECT THAT TO HELP TRANSITION THE BAND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHIFT THE MAIN BANDS OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING. WITH THAT PERSISTENT MOVEMENT...EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL ALLOW THE LES ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 12Z. OVER THE WEST...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETUP OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY. OFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED OUT WEST...BUT PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS DO INDICATE THE CONVERGENCE BAND IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY AND IN LINE WITH THE RADAR NORTH OF MARQUETTE COUNTY. THIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS (ALTHOUGH IT WAS PICKED UP ON OUR LOCAL 6Z WRF RUN). WAS HOPING TO GET A VISUAL CONFORMATION FROM THE VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND BEFORE FINALIZING THE FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING FOR THAT. BASED OFF THOSE WEATHER STATIONS AND WEBCAMS...HAVE TRENDED THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER THE HOUGHTON TO CALUMET AREA FOR THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1/2-1 INCH AN HOUR WITHIN THE BAND. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS STRUGGLING SOME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE BAND THIS MORNING...BUT DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS/INDICATIONS THAT THE BAND WILL TRY TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTH AND INTO SOUTHERN KEWEENAW COUNTY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE PRESENT TIME...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER TO BE ABOVE THE DGZ AND HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD SEE MORE OF THE CLOUD BECOME FOCUSED IN THE DGZ AND HELP RATIOS. STILL EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO FALL IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AND THE NORTHERN HOUGHTON ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS EAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR A POTENTIAL EXPANSION INTO KEWEENAW COUNTY. ONE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL BE TIED TO THE LEFT FRONT OF AN UPPER JET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. THOSE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES CO-LOCATED WITH WEAK/SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND 700MB MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ALONG THE U.P. BORDER WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ALREADY SOME -SHSN IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO THE WEST OF WINNIPEG...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO RIGHT ALONG THE WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN BORDER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL JUST SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES POPS NEAR THE BORDER (CHANCE NEAR IRONWOOD) TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHOWERS. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST COLD DAY UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO MID TEENS. TONIGHT...MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LAKE INDUCED TROUGH. SOME TRY TO DROP IT SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE FIELD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE OTHERS HAVE IT DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE KEWEENAW...BUT WILL SAG CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. IN CASE THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH. AS THAT OCCURS...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE WARMING AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A MUDDLED WIND FIELD...THERE SHOULDN/T BE ANY ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT AND IN TURN EXPECT LIMITED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE DISTURBANCE THAT BRUSHES THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXITING THE AREA...THINK AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD TREND TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME AREAS OVER THE SOUTH BECOME COMPLETELY CLEAR FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE AND REDUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TO BE THE COLDEST OVER THE AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT AND DID TREND THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE INTERIOR AREAS OF DELTA/ALGER/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES..AS LONGER CLEARING COULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 429 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW FLOW AND AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ALOFT WITH A 300MB JET AROUND 120KTS. THE FOCUS FOR ANY LINGERING MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NW FAVORED WIND SNOW BELTS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...MORE OF AN OFFSHORE OR PARALLEL SHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE E. ANOTHER 1-2IN OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE PORCUPINE MTNS THROUGH THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW...AND THEN RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT. THE 500MB LOW SPINNING OVER W HUDSON BAY WILL BEGIN TO SINK OVER N MANITOBA. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR A MORE W FLOW TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE 500MB LOW ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DOWN TROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. SYNOPTIC SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD WILL RETURN THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE COMBINING N LOWS SINKING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. YESTERDAY THEY SHOWED MORE OF A S TREND...LIKE THE 12Z SREF /OVER E KS/OK AT 06Z FRIDAY/. SINCE THEN THEY ARE A BIT MORE N INTO IA. EITHER WAY...A PERSISTANT NE-N SFC FLOW LOOKS TO SET IN ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE SFC LOW EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO JOIN FORCES WITH ANOTHER LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS UP THE E SEABOARD SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A STEADY TROUGH OVER OUR AREA WITH N-NW FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SFC HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY ATTEMPS TO BUILD IN OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1220 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 WINDS CONTINUING TO BACK THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW KSAW TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD UNDER A DOWNSLOPE WSW WIND COMPONENT. AT KIWD...BANDS SHOULD SHIFT N OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN WED AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AT KCMX...-SHSN WILL CONTINUE WITH A WIND TRAJECTORY OFF THE LAKE. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY PREVAIL...BUT AS IS TYPICAL FOR LAKE EFFECT...CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SOME MVFR AND LIFR AT TIMES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS HELPED BACK WINDS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WINDS MAINLY BELOW 25KTS. EXPECT THESE WESTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTENSIFIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS UP TO 30KTS INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST WINDS...UP TO 30KTS...WILL BRING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES OF FREEZING SPRAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006- 007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ003. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...SRF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ATHW40 PHFO 291243 SIMHI HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1230 UTC TUE DEC 29 2015 BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC DECEMBER 29 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AXIS OVER 500 MILES EAST OF HILO AT 2 AM. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE ISLANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. DUE TO THE NEARLY FULL MOON...THE VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND SHOWS THAT CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS HAVE DISSIPATED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE SUNSET. KAUAI IS VIRTUALLY CLOUD FREE...WHILE NIIHAU HAS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OAHU...MOSTLY OVER THE NORTH SHORE. MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE ARE MOSTLY CLOUD FREE AT 2 AM. SIMILARLY MAUI HAS FEW CLOUDS OVERHEAD...EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EAST FACING COASTLINE OF HALEAKALA FROM HANA TO NUU. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF CLOUDS THAT IS MOVING OVER THE PUNA DISTRICT...BRINGING SCATTERED CLOUDS TO THAT AREA. THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI OVERNIGHT. $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KMSO 201007 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 407 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2015 .DISCUSSION...Hot spots visible overnight on 3.9 micrometer and NPP VIIRS Day/Night Band satellite imagery suggest that active fire behavior has continued overnight on many of the larger fires across Washington, Idaho and Montana, adding further smoke to the environment that will only compound the existing air quality and overall quality of life issues today. Fortunately breezy conditions this afternoon and the passage of a cold front on Friday will help clean out the air. However both of these instances of wind may also result in additional fire activity and thus the previously issued Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch continue unchanged. Another point of good news lies in the likelihood for some moisture with Friday's cold front. Models have become increasingly consistent in dragging more of the moisture/precipitation west into the Kootenai Region, an idea supported by a stronger upper level jet. And although amounts are still likely to be light, the presence of any rainfall at this point will certainly be welcomed! Precipitation amounts will increase closer the the Continental Divide and snow still appears possible above 6000ft early Saturday morning. Cooler conditions will linger across central Idaho and western Montana on Saturday and an overall decrease in fire activity should limit the amount of additional smoke into the atmosphere. Thus Saturday should prove to be quite a nice day across the Northern Rockies! The potential for frost will exist Saturday night into Sunday morning (mainly western Montana), but temperatures will quickly warm up during the day Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds. Due to the warm temperatures and low humidity, smoke is expected to increase Sunday into Monday. In the long range, models are showing another trough digging down from Canada late Tuesday into Wednesday. This would lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms ahead of the trough, and cooler, showery weather behind it. Overall, the weather pattern is starting to look like Fall in the extended. && .AVIATION....Smoke from area wildfires will continue to obscure visibilities today. Denser smoke plumes is expected today and will likely cause terrain obscurations across much of the area. Most terminals will see breezes around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon. Other than smoke clouds, clear skies are expected with no precipitation. A cold front is expected on Friday, which will bring breezy winds and should help clear the smoke. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening Bitterroot...Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead... East Lolo...Flathead/Glacier Park...Kootenai...Salish and Kootenai Reservation...West Lolo. RED FLAG WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening Flathead/Glacier Park. ID... FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday morning through Friday evening Clearwater/Nez perce...Palouse/Hells Canyon. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 111353 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 350 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. TRADE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK CONTINUES TO DEPEND ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE HILDA. ASSUMING HILDA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK...HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE. && .DISCUSSION... THE RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 42N 151W...OR ABOUT 1500 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE... HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 150.9W...OR ABOUT 330 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO AND ABOUT 540 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AT 1100 PM HST MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/. HILDA WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 MPH AT THAT TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HILDA... PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA35 PHFO. ALOFT...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL LOW TO NEAR KAUAI. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. NOTE THAT SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS DUE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND APPEARED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE INCREASING AHEAD OF HILDA. THESE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THE RELATIVELY STRONG TRADES MIGHT CARRY A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MOST LEEWARD AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY LATER TODAY. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. IN ADDITION...THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS WILL ALSO CAUSE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND EXPERIENCING AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. THE 200 AM HST SOUNDING AT HILO CONTINUED TO SHOW THE LOW LEVEL TRADE-WIND INVERSION NEAR 8 TO 9 THOUSAND FEET...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED NO TRADE WIND INVERSION... POSSIBLY DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH. THE PW AT LIHUE WAS NEAR 1.7 INCHES. THE GFS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN PW VALUES IN THE UPWIND TRADE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST ISLANDS. WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE HILDA COULD PRODUCE A MODEST BOOST IN RAINFALL STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AS THE LATEST CPHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE HILDA MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH HILDA HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD SURROUNDING IT IS RATHER BROAD. THIS MEANS THAT THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI...WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN WHEN HILDA IS A FEW HUNDRED MILES AWAY BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY SPREADING FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BIG ISLAND SLOPES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH HILDA REMAINS HIGH. NO MATTER WHAT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL THREAT...AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATER THIS WEEK. ALL INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF HAWAII SHOULD KEEP MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF HILDA BY TUNING IN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR BY VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII FOR THE LATEST BULLETINS AND WEATHER PRODUCTS. HILDA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL MOST LIKELY BE CLEARING THE STATE SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... AIRMET TANGO WAS DROPPED AROUND MIDNIGHT AS VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOWED WINDS WERE ON THE DECLINE. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF HILDA ARE MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND OVER THIS AREA...BUT A RECENT VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS. AN AIRMET FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...THE TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CARRY PERIODS OF MVFR. && .MARINE... WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FOR THE TRACK...INTENSITY AND SIZE OF HURRICANE HILDA...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND PROBABILITIES SHOW THAT THE COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND MAY HAVE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WE ARE ISSUING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE BIG ISLAND...EXCLUDING THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. ELSEWHERE...ALL INTERESTS...ESPECIALLY MARINERS...IN THE STATE OF HAWAII SHOULD KEEP MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF HILDA BY LISTENING TO THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR VISITING OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HAWAII. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE TRADES MAY NOT WEAKEN OVER THESE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS UNTIL TONIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM HILDA HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. SINCE WE HAD REPORTS OF LARGE SURF LATE MONDAY ALONG SOME OF THE BEACHES OF THE BIG ISLAND...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF WARNING FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF THAT ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF EAST MAUI CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HILDA. ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SMALLER ISLANDS WEST OF MAUI MAY REMAIN MOSTLY BLOCKED FROM THE HILDA SWELL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME REFRACTED SWELL ENERGY WILL LIKELY AFFECT EAST FACING BEACHES AND NEARSHORE REEFS...WHILE LARGER SWELLS WILL LIKELY BE EXPERIENCED FARTHER OFFSHORE. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF EAST MAUI. TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS...BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS...AND BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAALAEA BAY...AND THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON AVIATION...M BALLARD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 282328 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 228 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT WHEN INITIALIZED AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY BY USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...DYNAMIC PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM SITKA TO FAIRBANKS TO KOTZEBUE SOUND THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO LIE DAWSON YT TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO CAPE LISBURNE LATE THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM TELLER TO HUSLIA TO FAIRBANKS TO YAKUTAT LATE THIS EVENING...AND OVER CANADA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING FROM 522 DAM TO AROUND 540 DAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THE DRIVER OVER THE SHORTWAVES IS A 488 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT WILL MOVE FROM NEAR ATKA TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 494 DAM. A RAPIDLY MOVING STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE BACK OF THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO LIE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY TO TALKEETNA TO SKAGWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE POSITION IS NOT VERY CLEAR AS IT CLIMBS THE BACK OF THE RIDGE. AT 850 HPA...12Z UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 2.2 CELSIUS BELOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING BEHIND IT. ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE TEMPERATURE OVER FAIRBANKS TO AROUND 3 ABOVE CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED ON THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC SLOPE. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 956 MB LOW NEAR ATKA EXTENDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR . WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A WEAK LOW NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW IN THE ARCTIC MERGES WITH A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AS THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE PRIBILOFS. AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES NORTH THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR STRENGTHENS A BIT TONIGHT...THEN STARTS GETTING PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES NORTH. RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT FRONT MOVES NORTH A VERY STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER SUMMITS ON WEDNESDAY. A 967 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY EVENING TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE LOWER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BANDS OF STRATUS WITH FLURRIES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE ARCTIC CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH SOME STRATUS ALSO OVER THE PLAINS. ALL OF THE STRATUS SHOWS UP PRETTY WELL ON THE NPP VIIRS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB AT 28/1332Z. AS THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE THE STRATUS WILL FOLLOW...SO EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT WITH A RETURN OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST COAST WHICH WILL HAVE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTH OF POINT LAY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REST OF THE ARCTIC COAST ON TUESDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...KIND OF A MESS OUT WEST WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FRONTS MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND WARM AIR SURGES NORTH. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND NULATO HILLS SEEING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR Z215 AND ISSUE A NEW ONE FOR Z216 FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH IN THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATER IN THE WEEK. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WHEN WINDS GUSTING TO 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE CONSTRAINED NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE SUMMITS ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY AND IN KOTZEBUE SOUND ON THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES INLAND AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH...COASTAL AREAS WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH CHANGE BUT WILL BE WARMER. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AS THE MOISTURE SKIPS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THE NEXT COUPLE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER AS CHINOOK IS SET UP ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. SOME COOLING BETWEEN SYSTEMS..WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG ACROSS THE RANGE SO THAT WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR FROM SINKING TO THE SURFACE. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WINDS WARNING FOR THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES Z225 AND Z226 AS WELL AS Z223. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS...BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE EVEN STRONGER AFTER ABOUT A 24 HOUR BREAK. EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER SUMMITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOOKS LIKE SNOW ON TAP FOR THE INTERIOR THURSDAY. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ227. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 222050 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1250 PM AKDT WED JUL 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO 120 HOURS OR SO. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AGAIN TODAY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS DRIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A 564 DAM HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A 547 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 552 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA. SURFACE...PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. 1003 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES EAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND MERGES WITH A 997 MB LOW AS THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES SOUTHEAST. LATE THURSDAY EVENING THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC PERSISTS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC TODAY...AND WILL ROTATE WEST TO THE DATELINE AND CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT AT 22/1637Z SHOW THE STRATUS ON THE ARCTIC HAS MOVED INLAND OFF THE COAST BETWEEN BARROW AND PRUDHOE BAY AND THE CLEARING CORRELATES QUITE WELL WITH THE POSITION OF THE 564 DAM HIGH AT 500 HPA. EXPECT CLEARING NORTH OF POINT LAY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES WEST...WITH STRATUS FLOWING BACK OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS FROM EAST TO WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE. THE CLEARING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL SWING A FRONT TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS...BUT EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING TAPERING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND AROUND MINCHUMINA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THEN A REPEAT TOMORROW FOR THE ALASKA RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE...NO SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS SINCE 22/0918Z SO NO HELP THERE...BUT THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT FROM 22/1637 CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE ARCTIC CRUSHING THE STRATUS AS IT MOVES WEST. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS STILL TRENDING TO A SOLUTION WITH A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER YUKON. STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR EAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL FOCUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALASKA RANGE AND ADJACENT ZONES TODAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. OVERALL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MIN RH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS HAVE ALL LEVELED OFF AND WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO NO ISSUES AT THIS TIME AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUL 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 132259 CCB AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 159 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. CONTINUITY HAS BEEN GOOD...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED WEDNESDAY. WILL USE CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART...BLENDING IN A LITTLE OF THE LATEST RUNS TO PICK UP MINOR CHANGES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...VERTICALLY STACKED 480 DAM LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AT 497 DAM. THEN WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE SPINS AROUND THE LOW AND PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AS IT WEAKENS. RIDGING REESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH 522 DAM HEIGHTS PUSHING NORTH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE...928 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BE OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MID DAY MONDAY. THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. FRONT IS STRETCHING PRETTY THIN AS IT WORKS NORTH AND IS REMAINING WEST OF TANANA AS THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR BLOCKS IT FROM VENTURING TOO FAR EAST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT EXPECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND WITH STRONG GRADIENT PERSISTING OVER THE AREA BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL TRIGGER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR PASSES. SATELLITE...NPP VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT AT 13/1812Z FROM SPORT SHOWS A PRETTY EXTENSIVE BAND OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT EAST. ALSO SHOWING SOME STRATUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR. UNFORTUNATELY IT ONLY COVERS FROM AROUND THE ARCTIC CIRCLE NORTH TODAY. GOES IR LOOPS SHOWING THE BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPING EARLIER TODAY IS NOW DISSIPATING IN SOME AREAS. ALSO SHOWS THE OCCLUDED FRONT WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF OF THE LOW AND CONTINUING TO STRETCH OUT AS IT MOVES FURTHER FROM THE LOW. RADAR...BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE BETHEL AND NOME RADARS AS THEY MARCH NORTH. SNOW OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA MOVING INTO NORTON SOUND AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AT NOON WILL CONTINUE NORTH. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES NORTH AND LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. STRATUS OVER THE AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT...SO CONTINUE WITH SOME FLURRIES OVER THE AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. SOME BLOWING SNOW AS THE WINDS PICK UP WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AND WILL WARM TO AROUND ZERO FROM BARROW WEST AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO THE EAST. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOT OF STUFF GOING ON HERE WITH THE STRONG BERING SEA LOW MOVING NORTH TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MOVING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW MOVES NORTH. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW NORTH OF NOME...BUT WITH THE WINDS PICKING UP OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND KOTZEBUE AND THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND DEERING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MODELS ARE A BIT CONFLICTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM THAT IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE AND ONLY BRING IN SOME FLURRIES AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES BUT NOT MUCH STRONGER THAN 45 MPH. A LITTLE WARMER BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ215. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 072119 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1219 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW UP AS WE MOVE PAST THE NEAR TERM. THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND ARE COMING IN LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AS WELL AS DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING PATCHES. THE MODELS JUST DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO FORECAST THE STRATUS AND THE DYNAMICS IT CREATES. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE SINCE ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR MAX COOLING. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 DAM...AND WILL WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 493 DAM AS IT SITS OVER BARROW WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CONNECTING UP WITH A 499 DAM LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE LIES FROM WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE AXIS MOVES TO LIE FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND LIE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 1002 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR BARROW REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS TROUGHING EXPANDS TO THE EAST AND A 999 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR MCKENZIE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE...MODIS AND NPP VIIRS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ESSENTIAL IN PINPOINTING THE STRATUS OVER THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS. PRODUCT AT 07/1534Z CLEARLY SHOWS THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...NORTHWEST COAST...CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...AND MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS THE SHREDS THAT ARE JUST FLOATING AROUND. SPORT PRODUCTS ARE GREAT TOOLS FOR TRACKING THE STRATUS. ARCTIC COAST...WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT SO FAR. EXPECT IT TO EXPAND TO THE EAST...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST. QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE CLOUDY BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS AS THE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS PERSISTS AND STEADY OR RISING TO THE EAST AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO...DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS BUT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING ALONG THE EDGES A BIT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING...BUT SHREDS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OR FLOAT THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME FLURRIES. NOT EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE IT COULD. SOME WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER YUKON AND AROUND NORTON SOUND WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR THE LOWER YUKON COAST. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER ON THE LOWER YUKON..INLAND AREAS WITH STRATUS WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO FIGURE OUT AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BE WARMER IF THEY REMAIN OR BECOME CLOUD COVERED. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE STRATUS REALLY DID A NUMBER ON THE TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WITH THE AREA MAINLY MUCH WARMER SINCE THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST TODAY IS JUST A DIFFICULT SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IF IT CLEARS OUT. THERE IS NO INDICATION ON SATELLITE OR IN THE THE MODELS THAT IT WILL...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220. && $$ SDB DEC 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 061323 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 523 AM AKDT SUN SEP 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR-TERM ARE FOG AND LOW-LEVEL STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. LATEST VIIRS MICROPHYSICS NIGHTTIME/24-HR RGB IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC COASTAL PLAIN. STRATUS AND FOG MORE DISCONTINUOUS OVER THE EASTERN SECTION. DENSE FOG...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE...HAS BEEN REPORTED AT MANY OF THE SITES AT TIMES. AS SUCH...DENSE FOG HEADLINES IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 201 THROUGH 204. ELSEWHERE...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN/EASTERN NORTON SOUND ARE SEEING FOG. DENSE FOG WAS ISSUED FOR ZONES 211 AND 212 AS UNALAKLEET...KOYUK...NOME...AND GOLOVIN HAVE BEEN IMPACTED AT TIMES BY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OUT TO ABOUT 54-60 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND PHASE ARE MORE APPARENT THOUGH MODELS AGREE BY AND LARGE WITH RESPECT TO THE BIGGER PICTURE GOING INTO THU. .ALOFT...A ZONAL 500 HPA PATTERN IS SEEN ON THE WHOLE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THOUGH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS THREE WEAK CIRCULATIONS. ONE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA...ANOTHER NEAR BRISTOL BAY...AND A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN. THE WEAK LOW NEAR BRISTOL BAY WILL CROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY MON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE EARLY TUE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE LATTER CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-HRS BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE EARLY MON AS A STRONG ARCTIC TROUGH MOVES SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A TROUGH SOUTH INTO THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA LATE SUN/EARLY MON. THE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE BERING BY LATE MON TO FORM A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF MAINLAND AK/SOUTHERN BERING SEA. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST MIDDAY TUE/EARLY WED. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH TUE INTO THU OVER AK/NORTH PACIFIC THAT COULD BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS MON. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT AT THE LOWER LEVELS...850 HPA/700 HPA...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HRS OVER NORTHERN AK. NO WINDS TO POTENTIALLY TAP INTO TO MIX DOWN INTO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST/BERING STRAIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT. GRADIENT MAGNITUDE CONTINUES TO INCREASES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. .SURFACE...A BROAD AND LOOSE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA AND BERING STRAIT AS A TROUGH EXTENDS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA FROM A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY MEANWHILE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE. A STRONG LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-HRS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA BY EARLY MON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL STAY RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO KEEP A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH MON. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CHUKCHI SEA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT ABOUT 998 HPA TUE. MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...WITH THE GFS FORECAST HAVING A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. MODELS SHOW THE LOW APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE EVENING. MEANWHILE...A 996 MB LOW CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS AS IT MOVES EAST. THE LOW\S OCCLUDED FRONT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY MON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA INTO THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY AND THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND/NULATO HILLS. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING EASTWARD NEAR BRISTOL BAY. WILL SEE INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW SPREAD INTO THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE AS THE ARCTIC TROUGH MOVES SOUTHWARD. INCREASED CHANCES WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TOMORROW NIGHT THEN INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED. MODERATE SNOW POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BROOKS RANGE LATE MON INTO TUE HOWEVER...QPF FORECASTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS SEEN WITH EARLIER RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-HEAVY SNOW. .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. A SUFFICIENT FETCH LENGTH BEGINS TO BE REALIZED BEGINNING MON GOING INTO TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COASTS HOWEVER...PEAK WIND SPEEDS IN THE FETCH CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WAVES START EXCEEDING 6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COASTS TUE. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. && .HYDROLOGY...NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS. SCANT TO LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE YUKON DELTA AND LOWER YUKON VALLEY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ ET SEP 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 041052 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15 DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS. && .HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 060144 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 444 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2015 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARE TWO VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS...ONE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ONE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORT-WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A "BACK DOOR" WARM FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER EAST THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO KODIAK ISLAND IN NORTHEAST FLOW. OF NOTE FROM A LARGER WEATHER/CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE IS THE VERY EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET (EAJ). THIS IS RUNNING ALMOST DUE EAST BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM KOREA TO ABOUT 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE WINDS IN THIS JET EXCEED 190 KTS IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THIS EXTENDED EAJ IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE DURING EL NINO YEARS AND IS A SIGN THAT THE CURRENT EL NINO IS WELL COUPLED WITH THE MID LATITUDE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS LOWS OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FORECAST...BUT DOES INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MAINLAND. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL USHER HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PROVIDED...FOG WHICH HAS DEVELOPED AROUND SUNSET THIS AFTERNOON...OR IN SOME PLACES HAS PERSISTED SINCE THIS MORNING...MAY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. AS OF 3 PM...VIIRS NPP POLAR SATELLITE DETECTED THIS FOG EXTENDING FROM THE KNIK AND LOWER MATANUSKA RIVER VALLEYS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CHUGACH RANGE TO EAST ANCHORAGE...THEN DEVELOPS AGAIN FROM POTTER MARSH THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM DOWN TO PORTAGE AND PERHAPS TURNAGAIN PASS. ANOTHER BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXISTS ALONG THE STERLING HIGHWAY FROM NEAR SOLDOTNA EAST TO NEAR COOPER LANDING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE IMPACTED AREAS IN ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY UNTIL 6 AM AKST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOG...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING SLICK ROADS FROM THE FOG DEPOSITING ICE ON THE ROADWAYS...MAINLY ALONG THE GLENN HIGHWAY...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CUT-OFF HIGH SETTING UP DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE AIR MASS. EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC COMBINED WITH COOLING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL IS LEADING TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS ALONG PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ADVECT THE COLDER AIR OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO BE A WEAK EVENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS AND IN THE IMMEDIATE EXIT OF THE GAPS...BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER. WITH THE COLDEST AIR SETTING UP IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...THE VALDEZ TO THOMPSON PASS AREA CAN EXPECT SOME OF THE STRONGEST GAP WINDS. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND MON)...WEATHER WILL REMAIN COLD AND RELATIVELY CALM...ESPECIALLY FOR DECEMBER...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY BUILD OVER THE MAINLAND. WITH THE COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL CREATE A MODERATE OFFSHORE SURFACE GRADIENT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE NORTH TO EAST WINDS TO CREEP UP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA LATE SUN INTO MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THOSE AREAS. BUT AS IT USHERS IN THE WARMER AIR...EXPECT THE SNOW TO CHANGE QUICKLY TO RAIN. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAINLAND TO SLOWLY MODIFY TO START THE WEEK. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND MON)...THE BEST WAY TO SUM UP THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS COMPLICATED BUT LOW-IMPACT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SET-UP IN THE VICINITY OF DUTCH HARBOR. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW THERE WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TURN TO RAIN SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. ON THE WEST SIDE...THERE WILL BE COLD AIR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SEVERAL WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE BERING IN A CYCLONIC/COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FASHION AROUND THE LOW CENTER. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT SOME OF THIS ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A POLAR LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A NARROW BAND OF STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE SUN. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MON THROUGH FRI)... THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT HAS BEEN A SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE LATELY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF AND DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A GALE (OR POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE) LOW INTO THE GULF BY LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST IN THE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONFINED TO THE GULF AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE OVER THE BERING...BROAD NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE GULF LOW WILL DISSIPATE SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NORTH GULF COAST...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTH MAINLAND. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG 101 111. MARINE...GALES 130 138 160 177 178 180 181 185 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181 185. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO LONG TERM...DEK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 051407 AFDAFC SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 507 AM AKST SAT DEC 5 2015 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... THE MAIN NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION...KEEPING THE ALASKA REGION OUT OF THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK. A STRONG AND VERY LARGE LOW EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA EXTENDING EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA...THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...AND WILL REACH THE CANADIAN BORDER BY LATE THIS MORNING. WITH THE WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INCREASING PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUT WEST...THE NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL STRENGTHEN TO AN IMPRESSIVE 190 KTS AND MOVE EAST...WITH WAVINESS ALONG THE JET RESULTING IN A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL IMPACTS REGION WIDE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE DEVELOPING DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THEY ALSO DIVERGE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE BERING WITH RESPECT TO NUMEROUS SMALL MESOSCALE LOWS WRAPPING AROUND/ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE BERING SEA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THESE IMPACTS ARE MUCH LOWER AND OVERALL DO NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST ALL THAT MUCH. THE ECMWF AND GFS TENDED TO AGREE WITH THE OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THE BEST...SO THEY WERE FAVORED FOR BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME NAM WAS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TO BETTER HANDLE OFFSHORE GAP WINDS HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE DEEP LOW LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A TREND TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS FAVORED...BUT LARGE UNCERTAINTY STILL CLOUDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THAT LOW...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOW MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF...JUST LOW CONFIDENCE ON TRACK. NONETHELESS...THAT LOW WILL LARGELY BE A MARINE IMPACT...WITH A CONTINUED OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING INLAND LOCATIONS LARGELY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW MOVE INLAND. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE LAST OF A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT-WAVES IS EXITING TO THE NORTH TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG HAVE FORMED. A RECENT SUOMI-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREA AREA OF STRATUS/FOG FROM THE WESTERN KENAI WITH A NARROW STRIP BANKED UP AGAINST THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS FROM ANCHORAGE TO EKLUTNA. THERE LIKELY ARE OTHER AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BLOCKING THE VIEW. THE LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS THIS STUFF WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE PACIFIC AND TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TO KODIAK ISLAND. THUS...GENERALLY EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND AT LEAST PARTIAL EROSION OF FOG/STRATUS WITH THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL MIXING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CUT-OFF HIGH SETTING UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE AIR MASS. EXPECT COOLING TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. CONTINUED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC COMBINED WITH COOLING OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL WILL LEAD TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS ALONG PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ADVECT THE COLDER AIR OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO BE A WEAK EVENT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS AND IN THE IMMEDIATE EXIT OF THE GAPS...BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER. WITH THE COLDEST AIR SETTING UP IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...THE VALDEZ TO THOMPSON PASS AREA CAN EXPECT SOME OF THE STRONGEST GAP WINDS. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AND COINCIDE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER PRODUCING WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINES. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)... THE BROAD COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN THIS MORNING. THE STRONG 175 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY ZONAL JET STREAM LOCATED IN THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE BERING IS PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE WESTERN BERING BY LATE TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE WINDS. THE BERING AND THE ALEUTIANS WILL BE UNDER A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MON THROUGH FRI)... A BROAD LONG WAVE PATTERN CENTERS NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ON MONDAY...SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND THE LOW CENTER THAT DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON MONDAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPIN UP FROM THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO INCREASE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES USING INFLUENCE FROM THE ECMWF WHICH HAD THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE 06Z GFS IS STARTING TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE ECMWF AND BOTH ARE BRINGING A SURFACE LOW BETWEEN 950-955MB INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE KENAI. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND IS PROJECTED TO MERGE WITH A PACIFIC WAVE WHICH ESSENTIALLY AMPLIFIES THE LONG WAVE AND SETS A NEW PATTERN INTO MOTION. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181 185. GALES 130 138 177 178 185. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD LONG TERM...KH  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 122130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 130 PM AKDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... ALOFT AT 500 MB...THE 547 DAM LOW LOCATED OVER 75N AND 147W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND DEVELOP A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOPING INTO A 548 DAM LOW BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF TRYING TO FORM AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE AS THE GFS DOES DEVELOP A LOW BUT ROUGHLY 12 HOURS LATER. IN EITHER CASE THIS WILL BRING SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MARINE AND OFF SHORES MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. FOR THE INTERIOR...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM A COUPLE EASTERLY WAVES WHICH IS BASICALLY ROTATING ENERGY AROUND A DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT DEVELOPS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH ONE LOW SOUTH OF PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WE ALREADY HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. THE STRONGEST EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR FIRE SITUATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR EXTENDING FROM EAGLE TO GALENA WITH THE SURFACE LOW 0F 998 MB LOCATED OVER THE TANANA BASIN THIS EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES 1002MB OVER FORTY MILE COUNTY BY MID MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY MORNING EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TOWARD HUSLIA AND THEN DEVELOP INTO A 999 MB LOW AROUND BETTLES. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHES AS A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRATUS AND DENSE FOG REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR AREAS FROM BARROW EASTWARD ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. BY MONDAY THE WINDS WILL START TO SEE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM EASTERLY TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE BROAD AREA LOW NEAR BETTLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE BRINGING INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO THE AREA LATER IN WEEK. WESTERN COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MISSING THE SATELLITE VIIRS IMAGERY...BUT STILL ABLE TO UTILIZE THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT FROM MODIS IN THE LATE MORNING WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MOVED ALONG THE KOTZEBUE AREA. HOWEVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH GREATEST CHANCES EXTENDING FROM ANVIK TO RUBY. DENSE SMOKE LINGERED ACROSS SMILIER AREA AROUND RUBY THROUGH NOON TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO INCREASE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 2 MILES IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MIXING THROUGH THE DAY AND ADDED SHOWERS WILL HELP...RUBY STILL REMAINS AT HALF MILE AS OF 1 PM. THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PEDRO DOME RADAR WITH LIGHTING STRIKES WITH THE STORM JUST SOUTHEAST OF STEVENS VILLAGE AND SOME WITH THE STORMS LOCATED BETWEEN MCGRATH AND GALENA. EXPECTED COVERAGE TO EXPAND FROM ALASKA RANGE TO FAIRBANKS TO FORTY MILE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOP JUST NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS ON THE RADAR. THE STORM LOCATED NEAR THE AGGIE WILDFIRE HAD SOME RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORM CELL. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE INCREASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TO NORTHEAST OF CIRCLE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH WITH HALF AN INCH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE BUT OTHER MODELS ARE LESS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...EXPECT GENERAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITHIN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO CIRCLE. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN. THE THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES EXTENDING ACROSS AN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO CIRCLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POCKET AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... DO NOT EXPECT ANY RISE IN THE RIVERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MAY SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN THE CREEKS ESPECIALLY WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS GENERALLY EXPECTING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS WERE HINTING THAT THIS WOULD FALL IN THE UPPER PORTIONS KUSKOKWIM RIVER BASINS AS WELL AS THE CHATANIKA...CHENA..AND SALCHA RIVER BASINS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ227. && $$ MAK JUL 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 222242 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 242 PM AKDT MON JUN 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND CONTINUED WARMTH OVER THE INTERIOR... 22/12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE CONTINUES GOOD MODEL CONTINUITY DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. BEYOND 00Z THURSDAY...SOME DISPARITY BETWEEN THE ECWMF AND GFS REGARDING FEATURES...MORE NOTABLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE HIGH ARCTIC LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A PATTERN CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK...WHICH WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE...BUT NOT QUIET REACHING THE INTERIOR AS THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF COOLING. EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...A VERY WARM...SMOKEY...STAGNANT AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. THE 22/12Z GFS AND NAME ARE PAINTING LI VALUES OF -1C TO -3C WITH CAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 700 J/KG OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS....THOUGH MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOT BEEN THE BEST OF LATE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY COUPLED WITH LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH AROUND 20 TO 30 LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY BEING REPORTED AS OF 1 PM AKDT. EXPECTING THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PICKUP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW AND WILL BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER AND MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. AREAS OF SMOKE REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AS LOW AS 1 MILE AT TIMES HAS BEEN AN ISSUE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TODAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY BECOME WORSE AS MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER OVERNIGHT. SMOKE HAS ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS YESTERDAY AS WELL AS TODAY...AND HAVE MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO INTERIOR TEMPERATURES...KEEPING THEM COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AS MODELS ARE ADVERTISING H850 TEMPERATURES TO COOL BY AT LEAST 5C TO 10C BY THE WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. NORTH SLOPE...A BROAD AREA OF FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE INTACT ICE PACK...ACCORDING TO SUCCESSIVE VIIRS IMAGES...HAS BEEN MARCHING SOUTH TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BARROW HAS RECENTLY REPORTED DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS IN STRATUS OVER THE LAST HOUR. EXPECTING THAT THIS AREA WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND OVER ZONES 203 AND 204 LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES TAKE A DOWNWARD TURN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S OVER THE INLAND PORTION OF THE NORTH SLOPE WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST FOR TUESDAY. A SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS WRANGELL ISLAND AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW AND WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TO THE NORTH SLOPE...WEST COAST AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE MAINLY RAIN AT FIRST...BUT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SLOWLY CREEP SOUTH...APPROACHING ZONE 201 BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...DENSE FOG HAS MOVED IN OVER WESTERN SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...THUS HAVE PUT OUT A DENSE FOG HEADLINE FOR ZONE 213. THIS AREA OF FOG WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND TOWARDS THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE COOLING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST. PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE HAD THE 0C ISOTHERM MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST...REACHING THE YUKON DELTA BY THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THE RECENT GFS/ECWMF ARE CONFINING THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE 0C ISOTHERM TO NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A COOLING NONETHELESS ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA OF AROUND 5C AT H850 BUT NOT AS DRAMATIC AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. BY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... SLIGHTLY DRIER TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD NOT TRIGGER ANY RED FLAGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A MUCH BIGGER ISSUE WITH ALL THE CURRENT FIRES AND A LOT OF FIRE FIGHTERS IN THE FIELD. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE HORIZON FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WE HAVE TO GET THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE WARM DAYS FIRST. && .HYDROLOGY... FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 10000 FT SHOULD KEEP GLACIAL RIVERS RISING TO CLOSER TO NORMAL WHILE MOST CLEAR RIVERS REMAIN VERY LOW. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT AREAL EXTENT OF EACH SHOWER IS SMALL ENOUGH THAT NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE RISE OF SMALL STREAMS IN THE ALASKA RANGE MON AND TUE IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ LTH JUN 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 090943 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 143 AM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODEL DISCUSSION... CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR ON HANDLING OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. NAM/GFS HAVE GENERALLY SIMILAR AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GFS HAS SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER ZONE 222 AND WESTERN ZONE 220. GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA TODAY LOOK TOO HIGH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD CLOUD COVER SHOULD CUT DOWN ON AFTERNOON HEATING...NAM MOS FOR FAIRBANKS LOOKS MORE REALISTIC. ELSEWHERE IN THE INTERIOR... NAM AND GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE RUNNING CLOSER TOGETHER. UPPER AIR... AT 500 MB...A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHWARD. A SECONDARY LOBE EXTENDS FROM MAYO WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...AND WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE BY SUN AFTERNOON...LEAVING A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. A 532 DAM LOW CENTERED NEAR 56N/146 W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WOBBLE AROUND THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE NET CHANGE IN POSITION...THEN MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MON AFTERNOON WHILE FILLING TO A WEAK 546 DAM CENTER. A VERY WEAK RIPPLE WILL SPLIT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION TO BE NEAR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUN...WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. SURFACE... A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WEAK 1006 MB CENTER IS OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. THE MAIN CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ZONE 224 BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AS IT FILLS TO 1010-1012 MB. A TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SUN. A WEAK 1000 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA PENINSULA BY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR DALL POINT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 1019 MB. ARCTIC COAST... AS OF 07Z...NOT MUCH STRATUS/FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED BY POES NPP-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGING. BARROW IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY SITE REPORTING FOG. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WIND FLOW COULD BECOME VARIABLE OR LIGHT WESTERLY SUN NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG. CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR... RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUN NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SPOTTY. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN ZONE 221 AND IN NEARBY AREAS OF ZONE 219 AND WESTERN ZONE 220. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS COULD BE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TOO HIGH...CLOUD COVER SHOULD CUT DOWN ON THE SOLAR HEATING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED BY THE FORT GREELY MESONET...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MORNING BUT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH VERY SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO MON. WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN ZONE 216 TODAY AND TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK DAYS 5-8...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR INTERIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA AS WELL. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NO RED FLAGS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUIET BREAKUP CONTINUES ON THE MAIN RIVERS. NO VIIRS RIVER ICE SATELLITE IMAGING WAS AVAILABLE FRI DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. && $$ RF MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 072307 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 307 PM AKDT THU MAY 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ANY RELATED HYDRO ISSUES. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 07/12Z MODELS THROUGH 09/00Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECWMF/NAM/GEM REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA...AS WELL AS OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LATITUDE OF 50 N TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH BECOMING A CLOSED OFF LOW ROUGHLY 200 MILE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH FROM THIS LOW TOWARDS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY...CRESTING THE ALASKA RANGE AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. SURFACE...A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OVER CAPE NEWENHAM WILL LIFT NORTH TO OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 51 N 151 W WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND STRENGTHEN. THE THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO FAIRBANKS AND EAST TOWARDS EAGLE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN WEAKEN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...BERING STRAIT AND WEST COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WEST COAST...MORNING IMAGES FROM THE NPP-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT DEPICT AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF FOG AND STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. EXPECTING THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG TO PERSIST AS IT HAS DONE ALL WEEK. BOTH THE BETHEL AND NOME RADARS HAVE PICKED ON SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTON SOUND AND THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER CAPE NEWENHAM LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS KOTZEBUE SOUND...AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THE NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA FRIDAY. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA...AND PRIMARILY SNOW TO THE NORTH. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. NORTH SLOPE...THE 07/19Z NPP-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG JUST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST FROM BARROW TO KAKTOVIK. NOT EXPECTING FOG TO RETURN TO THE ARCTIC COAST EAST OF BARROW THROUGH SUNDAY...AS FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE. SUCCESSIVE MORNING IMAGES FROM THE SAME SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS ZONE 201. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY AS THE SOUTHWEST SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE ARCTIC. INTERIOR...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A CHANGE FROM DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO COOL AND WET CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL DIMINISH SOME FRIDAY...BUT WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTH SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE FOR THE INTERIOR. DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF QPF...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE 07/12Z MODELS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL TO FALL OVER AN AREA EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TO GALENA AND ANAKTUVUK PASS AND EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE GREATEST QPF AMOUNTS FROM GALENA AND MCGRATH NORTH TO TANANA AND BETTLES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AND EVALUATED FURTHER AS DETAILS MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE A WET WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CAUSING WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RH WILL RECOVER ABOVE 30 PERCENT LATE TONIGHT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. RH WILL DROP BACK BELOW 30 PERCENT NEAR DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT IN THE DENALI AREA ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IS NOW MOVING OVER THE TANANA VALLEY AND WILL MOVE OVER THE YUKON FLATS TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH OVER THE TANANA VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUIET BREAK UP CONTINUES. THERE MAY BE SOME HYDRO ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH FOR THE CHATNIKA AND CHENA RIVER BASINS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ONE QUARTER TO FOUR-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF TO FALL OVER THE CHENA AND CHATNIKA RIVER BASINS...WHERE THE SNOW PACK AND FROZEN GROUND CONDITIONS REMAIN. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES FOR THESE BASINS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ DISCUSSION/HYDROLOGY...LTH FIRE WEATHER...JB MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 071125 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 325 AM AKDT THU MAY 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CURRENT 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND AGREE WELL WITH THE PREVIOUS RUNS. UPPER AIR... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOUTHEASTWARD WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AS A NEW RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS NEW RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT...RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TO NORMAN WELLS AND SOUTHEASTWARD BY LATE SAT NIGHT LEAVING A WEAK FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND. A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH SEVERAL VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSITING THROUGH. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST SUN. SURFACE... A THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND EASTWARD WILL WEAKEN LATE SAT NIGHT BUT REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST WILL WEAKEN FRI NIGHT BUT REBUILD SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL WEAKEN BY LATE FRI NIGHT BUT REDEVELOP LATE SAT AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY THROUGH SAT...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE WILL WEAKEN BY LATE FRI NIGHT BUT REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON. A 1004 MB LOW JUST WEST OF PORT HEIDEN WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF POINT LAY BY FRI MORNING...SPREADING SHOWERS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST COAST..PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA TODAY INTO FRI EVE...TAPERING OFF LATER FRI NIGHT. 0853Z NPP-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGE INDICATES EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...OUTER KOTZEBUE SOUND...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BERING SEA INCLUDING ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT...AND MUCH OF THE ARCTIC COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT EASTWARD. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THESE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST. PABC RADAR IS PICKING UP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ZONE 215...SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING INTO ZONE 214 TODAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 223-225-226 FOR GUSTY WINDS AND RH BELOW 30 PERCENT. SOME SITES IN THESE ZONES REPORTED MIN RH NEAR 20 PERCENT WED. THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRI. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUIET BREAK UP CONTINUES. VIIRS APRFC RIVER ICE IMAGERY FROM MID-DAY WED SHOWS THE UPPER YUKON RIVER TO BE WATER OR A MIX OF WATER AND ICE. FROM KALTAG UPSTREAM THROUGH ZONES 216 AND 221...THE IMAGING SHOWS MAINLY A MIX OF ICE AND WATER WITH SOME AREAS OF WATER. OBSERVER AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ON THE TANANA AND YUKON RIVERS ARE BELOW NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ RF MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 051127 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 327 AM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH MAJOR FEATURES WITHIN A COUPLE MB. A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. SO WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH 551 DAM CENTER OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVING OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA AS THE CENTER MERGES WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A 515 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE EAST TO NORTH OF BARROW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 518 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 400 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OVER CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. A VIGOROUS LITTLE 1020 MB LOW NORTH BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TODAY. RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 990 MB LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. A 1008 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO REMAIN AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH ON THE MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS...BUT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 05/0715Z CLEARLY INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO EAST AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE EAST INTO CANADIAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20 MPH...BUT MAY BE UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF DEADHORSE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...REMAINS QUIET TODAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT A BETTER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ZONE 227. WITH THAT EXCEPTION WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST TODAY AS A VIGOROUS LITTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORTWAVE BRINGS GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH IT. STILL PRETTY DRY AT THE SURFACE SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TAPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORMS...IF THEY OCCUR WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. WITH IT BEING DRY AT THE SURFACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TODAY. STRONGER WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE STRENGTHENS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RANGE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS SO VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...PER NORMAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CONSENSUS. RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO CANADA AND A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN FROM FAIRBANKS NORTH. MODELS NOW MAKING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR. MODELS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY ISSUE RED FLAG WARNINGS SOMETIME TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...REPORTED THAT THE ICE MOVED AT EAGLE TODAY BUT STOPPED NEAR THE OLD VILLAGE OF EAGLE. VIIRS APRFC RIVER ICE AREAL EXTENT PRODUCT AT 04/2117Z INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THE YUKON RIVER REMAINS MIXED ICE AND WATER DOWN TO AT LEAST TANANA. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. RIVER WATCH MISSION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON BETWEEN THE FORT YUKON AND EAGLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 041143 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 343 AM AKDT MON MAY 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THEY INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH MAJOR FEATURES NO MORE THAN 2 MB DIFFERENT. WITH THE BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WILL LEAN ON THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE AND ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES BY NUDGING TO A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...553 DAM HIGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY...AND AFTER THE 540 DAM LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY SHORTWAVE TUESDAY MORNING MOVING EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...THE HIGH WILL MERGE WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 516 DAM LOW OVER ADAK WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 300 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND MOVING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGING OVER ALASKA WILL BE ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THEN TURN TO AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTATION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR AND WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING. STARTING TO SEE A TRUE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS EFFECT AS THE RIDGE OVER CANADA PERSISTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LEND TO GOOD SOLAR HEATING. RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS THROUGH THE RANGE WITH WINDS ENHANCED AS THEY MOVE INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH. DOWNSLOPE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 989 MB LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRATUS IS PRETTY WELL ENTRENCHED FOR NOW...AND NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR IT TO MOVE OUT. SOME WEAK WEATHER FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY KICK OFF SNOW FLURRIES OR SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA. STILL HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DENSE FOG EAST OF BARROW AND REALLY SEE NO REASON FOR THE TREND OF IT COMING IN EACH NIGHT AND GOING AWAY DURING THE DAY TO END. TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY FLAT...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SLOW WARMUP FROM THE EAST AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. VARIABLE WINDS TO 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET OUT HERE. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT THAT SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY NOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA ON WEDNESDAY AND THAT MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER EACH DAY AND HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 60S FOR SOME AREAS BY WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND WITH THE AIRMASS CONTINUING TO BE VERY DRY NOT MUCH CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS THE WEEK GOES ON WITH GAP WINDS DEVELOPING AND DOWNSLOPING INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THE TANANA RIVER WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST. STILL SOME INDICATION OF DEWPOINTS BEING ON THE RISING A LITTLE AS THE WEEK GOES ON. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BUT THE ONE THING THEY AGREE ON IS THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS MEANS THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG THE SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE ARCTIC AND WEST COAST WILL NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE EITHER. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACHED THE TEENS IN A FEW AREAS SUNDAY...EXPECT A FEW MORE AREAS TO REACH THE TEENS TODAY AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH WINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY WATCH FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS LATER IN THE WEEK. FORTUNATELY NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEK. AS THE WEEK CONTINUES LOOK FOR THE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TO BE POOR TO FAIR MOST NIGHTS. && .HYDROLOGY...REPORTS INDICATE ICE SHOULD GET PAST EAGLE SOMETIME THIS MORNING IF IT DID NOT HAPPEN OVERNIGHT. VIIRS APRFC RIVER ICE AREAL EXTENT PRODUCT AT 03/2136Z INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THE YUKON RIVER IS MIXED ICE AND WATER DOWN TO AT LEAST TANANA. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE LOWER THAN NORMAL. RIVER WATCH MISSION WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH OBSERVERS FLYING OVER THE UPPER YUKON BETWEEN THE FORT YUKON AND EAGLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ATHW40 PHFO 271232 SIMHI HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1230 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015 BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 27 2015 A MOSTLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 2PM. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM 43.0N 136.8W TO 25.1N 137.8W...PLACING THE AXIS ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF HONOLULU AT 2 AM. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND UPSTREAM OF KAUAI...WHILE ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND UPSTREAM OF THE REMAINING ISLANDS. LOW...PRIMARILY STABLE...CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF KAUAI OVERNIGHT...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU. ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WAIANAE RANGE ON OAHU. THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY SINCE SUNSET. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND THESE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SIMILARLY ON THE BIG ISLAND CLOUDS THINNED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE KAU...SOUTH KONA AND NORTH KONA DISTRICTS. THE LATEST VIIRS SATELLITE DAY/NIGHT BAND PASS SHOW LOW CLOUDS HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE KUMUKAHI...EXTENDING UP THE SLOPES TO AROUND 2000 FEET. $$ M BALLARD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 042231 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 131 PM AKST WED MAR 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...SHORT TERM AGREEMENT IS GOOD AND THEY INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS HAVE REVERTED BACK TO NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE BEYOND 90 HOURS OR SO. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT DATABASE...BUT LEAN ON THE SREF TO INCREASE THE SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING WITH 520 TO 540 HPA HAS MOVED OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AND WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CANADA TONIGHT AS THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. A 514 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH THE LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER COLD BAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING OVER CHIGNIK...THEN CONTINUES EAST AS IT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO HOMER BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 534 DAM LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO YAKUTAT THIS EVENING AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING SPINNING SOME MOISTURE UP IN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH HEIGHTS RISING LESS THAN 10 DAM OVER MOST AREAS. THE LAST OF THE MAJOR SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO MARSHALL TO COLD BAY...THEN FROM POINT HOPE TO KALTAG TO CHIGNIK BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOST IN THE FLOW AS THE TROUGH BECOMES VERY BROAD ACROSS THE STATE WITH MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW. AT 850 HPA...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL 4 TO 8 DEGREES CELSIUS. IN ADVANCE OF THE LAST MAJOR SHORTWAVE SOME WEAK WAR AIR ADVECTION OF 2 TO 4 DEGREES WILL OCCUR. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR STARTING SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. IN ADVANCE OF THE THIRD SHORTWAVE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 30 TO 55 KTS DEVELOPS WHICH WILL PULL IN MOISTURE FROM THE BERING SEA. SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT. AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST COAST IT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH OF OVER THE FLATS WITH A 1006 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LIVENGOOD AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY THURSDAY EVENING THEN OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND YUKON FLATS BEHIND THE LOW. THE NEXT LOW MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE COAST SOON AFTER. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO GOLOVIN TO ST MARYS TO KIPNUK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FRONT POINT HOPE TO AMBLER TO KALTAG TO BETHEL BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT THEN GETS LOST IN THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE WEST COAST SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE LOW AND EVENTUALLY COVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD DEVELOPING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH THE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND RIDGING BUILDING SOUTHEAST TO THE BROOKS RANGE. STILL EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND STEADY TO COOLING TEMPERATURES NEXT 48 HOURS. SLIGHT WARMING ON SATURDAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY AS COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SOME WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL CREATE SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES IN BLOWING SNOW AND MAY ENHANCE AVALANCHE POTENTIAL AS THE SNOW IN THE PASSES GETS BLOWN AROUND. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND NEXT WEATHER FRONT IS MOVING TO THE COAST TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE NULATO HILLS AND KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL SPREAD ANOTHER 1 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES FLAT NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLING BEGINS SATURDAY OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 15 TO 25 DEGREES BY SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON FLATS WILL PERSIST AND LOW MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MERGE WITH IT OVER LIVENGOOD. CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SNOW SPREADING BACK OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE WHITE AND RAY MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL BEGIN SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH SLIGHT WARMING SATURDAY THEN COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED FORECAST...MUCH COOLER WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE...THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF MVFR OVER THE WEST COAST WESTERN INTERIOR...AND WITH THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE YUKON FLATS. COMBO PRODUCT OF SPORT 04/1900Z AND NPP VIIRS 04/1840Z SHOWING A BAND OF STRATUS OFF THE ARCTIC COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO TOWARD THE COAST AT THIS TIME. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS MAY HAVE TO UPDATE SOME OF THE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB MAR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 012103 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1203 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. JUST GOING TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH A CENTER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HEIGHTS AROUND 546 DAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL FALL A LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE MAY SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ONE. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST AND NORTH AS IT WORKS OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. A 536 DAM LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INJECT SOME ENERGY INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MERGES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN LIE FROM OVER POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET TO CAPE NEWENHAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BARROW TO HUSLIA TO LIME VILLAGE LATE TUESDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO BETTLES TO SEWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EXIT THE STATE INTO CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY AS IT PUSHES INTO AND OVER THE RIDGE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE IS SQUASHED DOWN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE ENERGY...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE TRAIN OF WAVES THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE WEEK GOES ON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...AND WHAT MAY BE THE STRONGEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ANOTHER 6 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS. ON THE WEST COAST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SURFACE...1041 MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MAINLAND WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE AS A 991 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR MONDAY MORNING...AND A 1000 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEMS COMBINE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR MOVES TO THE ARCTIC THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE MONDAY EVENING AT 998 MB...THEN TO KOTZEBUE SOUND AT 999 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OVER THE RIDGE WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING EAST. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM BARROW TO AMBLER TO UNALAKLEET TO BETHEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA TO DILLINGHAM TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MACKENZIE BAY CANADA TO A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR BETTLES TO MCGRATH TO KING SALMON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DRAG ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MOVE FROM THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN TO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONTINUES FOR NOW IN ZONES 204 AND 206...BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF DRASTICALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO CANADA. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL ALSO COVER THE NORTH SLOPE SO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP...WEST OF BARROW...FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE SO EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT SURE ON JUST HOW MUCH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET FOR NOW. WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW WILL BEGIN ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY ON MONDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS MID DAY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER ZONES 214 AND 215 WHEN IT STARTS BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. BY TUESDAY MORNING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND START WORKING INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS. SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE NULATO HILLS...THE CENTRAL SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...GOOD NIGHT TO VIEW THE AURORA AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TONIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN NORMAL LATELY SO SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 01/1357Z/NPP VIIRS AT 01/1438Z 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS CONFIRM THE MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE. AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS PROVIDE EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE ONLY STRATUS CURRENTLY FLOATING AROUND THE AREA IS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH THE EXITING LOW. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 272223 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40 TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3 AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND 224. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219- AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ235. && $$ SDB FEB 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 251308 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 408 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THIS RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY NOON. THE 494 DAM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 546 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TODAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BEING SHUT OFF. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING MOVING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING AND CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING. A 564 DAM HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AND RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE RIVER OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE EVENT. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF WARMER AIR THAT THE MODELS CANNOT DEFINE DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE GRID. SURFACE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING SPREADING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. FRONT MOVES INTO YUKON BY AFTERNOON AS 1034 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 998 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE HIGH ARCTIC TONIGHT THEN MOVES EAST. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. A 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1001 MB THEN MOVE NORTH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 1006 MB...THEN MOVE TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INTO MACKENZIE BAY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW WILL SPIN UP INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE EXITING INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING AS A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY VARYING CONDITIONS AS EACH FRONT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN PERIODS WHEN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS HEAVIER SNOW AND STRONGER WINDS MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONTS. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205...BUT AS NOTED CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. WINDS INCREASING TODAY TO 30 TO 50 MPH AS ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW IN THE ARCTIC...BUT AREAS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO ZONES 207...208...210...211...213 AND 217. THE WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS SO INSTEAD OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL THE AREAS WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 213 AND UPGRADE THE REST TO WARNINGS IF THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ALREADY. QPF IS STILL PRETTY HIGH OVER THOSE AREAS...BUT GFS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE FRISKY THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED SO LOOK FOR WINDS FROM NOME NORTH OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND FROM KIVALINA NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE WINDS GUSTS NEAR 65 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THOUGH SOME WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES FROM FAIRBANKS WEST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FLURRIES ENDING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA WITH NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING SATURDAY...SPREADING SNOW FROM THE WEST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS AT 25/0845Z SHOW LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NO VIIRS FOG PRODUCTS SO FAR THIS MORNING TO COMPARE...BUT THE MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS WITH THE SAME TIME STAMP INDICATE IT IS MOSTLY STRATUS AND NOT FOG. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213- AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 120952 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 452 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 ...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG US-41 FROM MARQUETTE TO HARVEY AND FOR M-28 FROM HARVEY TO MUNISING... VERY POOR VISIBILITIES COVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING...AS COLD 850MB TEMPS (RAP ANALYZED VALUES AROUND -24C) ARE MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS COLD AIR LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW YESTERDAY AND IT REALLY TOOK OFF THIS PAST EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH THE AREA STILL BETWEEN A DEPARTING LOW OVER NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A 1042MB HIGH OVER MANITOBA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS WERE 45-52MPH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE WINDS TURNED TO THE NORTH THIS PAST EVENING WITH BEHIND A SECONDARY TROUGH...THE LAKE EFFECT TRANSITIONED FROM THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS TO THE NORTH WIND AREAS. THE ICE ON PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LIMITED SOME OF THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT AS SEEN ON KMQT/CWGJ RADARS AND LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF GRAND MARAIS...ALTHOUGH 06Z VIIRS DAY/NIGHT IMAGE DID STILL SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT WITH THE MOVEMENTS OF THE BANDS YESTERDAY EVENING AND INTO THE START OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE BANDS HAVE NOW HAVE LOCKED INTO THE NORTHERLY WIND BANDS AND HAVE SEEN RADAR ESTIMATES OF 0.5-1.0 INCH AN HOUR WHICH MATCHES UP WITH WHAT WAS SEEN AT OUR OFFICE BETWEEN 12-1AM (0.6IN). THE MAIN STORY THOUGH IS THE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINED SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. WITH THE ICE ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN LOCATED THERE AND HAS PROMPTED M-28 TO BE CLOSED THROUGH THIS MORNING BETWEEN KAWBAWGAM ROAD IN MARQUETTE COUNTY AND MUNISING. IN ADDITION...WITH POOR VISIBILITIES ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM MARQUETTE TO HARVEY ON US-41...THE MARQUETTE CITY POLICE IS URGING MOTORISTS TO AVOID TRAVEL ALONG THAT AREA. ONE ITEM TO NOTE THIS PAST EVENING WAS WHAT APPEARED TO BE MORE OPEN WATER OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE. WITH THE NORTHERLY WINDS...THE BREAK DOWN OF THE ICE WAS EXPECTED AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THAT EFFECT ON CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND ROUND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY...THE AREA SHOULD SEE A STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE TIED TO THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS (FALLING FROM 8KFT ON THE KMQT VAD AT 04Z) TO 3-4KFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OVER THE EAST THE GREATER LAKE MODIFIED AIR WILL KEEP THE INVERSION HEIGHTS HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE FALLING IN THE EVENING. THUS...SHOULD SEE THE LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST AND HAVE SEEN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE WESTERN SITES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 30-35KTS THROUGH 14-15Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THEY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE COMBINED WEAKENING WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY SHOULD HELP LEAD TO IMPROVING VISIBILITIES FROM MID MORNING ON. AS WINDS BACK LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE THE LAKE EFFECT STARTING TO SHIFT BACK EAST AND LARGELY FOCUSED OVER ALGER COUNTY AND ALSO AFFECTING LUCE COUNTY AGAIN. THEN AS THEY CONTINUE TO BACK AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...SHOULD SEE THE LAKE EFFECT COME TO AN END OVER THE EAST THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE OVER THE WEST...HAVE ALREADY SEEN WINDS WEAKENING AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AT BOTH KIWD/KCMX. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE FAR WEST SEEING THE SNOW END IN THE MORNING AND THE KEWEENAW AROUND EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THINK THE HEADLINES ARE IN DECENT SHAPE. DID MAKE A MINOR TWEAK TO THE END TIME OF THE IRON/DICKINSON WIND CHILL HEADLINE END TIME DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN EXPECTED. EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE AREA. THE DIMINISHMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS THAT WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL SPREAD EAST IN THE EVENING WITH THE BACKING WINDS. BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY AND MAKE FOR A TRICKY LOW FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS PRETTY INSISTENT ON THESE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AND BEING THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WITH THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...DID NOT TRY TO GET TO FANCY WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND FOLLOWED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...EXPECT IT TO STAY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT THAT TIME. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z FRI WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. THE NAM THEN BRINGS DOWN SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND CLOSES OFF A 500 MB LOW EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR 12Z SAT WHICH HELPS TO DIG THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND THIS UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST COAST BY 12Z SUN. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH AN ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT MOVES THROUGH ON FRI BEFORE BOTH DEPART FRI NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING AND USED A COMBO OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND. DID PUSH TIMING BACK FOR POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON FRI MORNING AS WINDS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SET UP A LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND OVER THE EAST. WIND CHILL VALUES FALL TO -15F TO -30F LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT AND THEN GET COLDER FOR SAT NIGHT WITH VALUES FROM -25F TO -35F. ALSO LOOKS LIKE FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES LOW AGAIN EXCEPT THIS TIME THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS WINDS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY MORE HEADLINES FOR NOW AND LET THIS FIRST EVENT GET DOWN BEFORE GOING WITH THE SECOND STRONGER EVENT. MESSAGE COULD GET LOST WITH MULTIPLE HEADLINES THAT THE SECOND EVENT WILL BE WORSE THAN THIS FIRST ONE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SUN WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN. THIS HIGH MOVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES 12Z MON WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND -21C. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR COMES IN ON TUE WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -22C TO -27C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS A SFC COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEING THE PCPN TYPE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 A STRONG DISTURBANCE WITH CONSIDERABLE DYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH STRONG NNW WINDS THAT WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLSN...IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. THE MOST SEVERE WIND AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED AT SAW. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DIMINISHING WINDS AND BLSN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. BACKING AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 322 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 ONGOING GALES/HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF A HI PRES RIDGE/WEAKER PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES. ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES/HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR INVASION WILL DEVELOP FRI NIGHT AND PERSIST THRU SAT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE SOME STORM FORCE GUSTS ON SAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF AND COULD DEFINITELY SEE A STORM EVENT ON LAKE SUPERIOR THEN. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE...STORM OR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCHES FOR NOW FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THIS FIRST EVENT WINDS DOWN AND HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO HOIST THE NEXT STRONGER EVENT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ001>004-009-084. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ013- 085. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ010-011. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ005. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265>267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...JLB MARINE...07  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 062223 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 123 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL THE MIDRANGE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER YAKUTAT AND KODIAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROUGH IS BROADER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS. SINCE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS IS JUST SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...552 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR IS SLOWLY BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 501 DAM LOW MOVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE 500 DAM LOW OVER YAKUTAT THAT FORMED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT OF CANADA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TONIGHT AS A 497 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE YUKON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THE LOW OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT OVER SAND POINT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN LOOP BACK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW LOOPS BACK NORTH A 508 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO KOTZEBUE TO BETHEL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BELOW ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM BEGINS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST AND WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO RUBY TO HEALY AND BY MONDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO BETTLES TO TOK. SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST FROM A 983MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ARCTIC FROM A 1045MB RIDGE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A 1042MB CENTER MOVING TO JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND A 1040MB CENTER DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR. A 1028MB CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A 1026MB CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS EARLY SATURDAY. A 965MB LOW OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND THE RIDGE OVER RUSSIA BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...AND THE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BUILDS...THE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL STRENGTHEN. THE BUILDING RIDGES WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS A SECOND FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EAST OF NUIQSUT WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 203 AND 206. WINDS KICKED UP A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN NEAR ZERO SO WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD FOR ZONE 204 THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WILL NEED TO ISSUE SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WINDS INCREASING IN GENERAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FALLING. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 207...209...AND 213. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR ON SUMMITS. COLDEST AREAS WILL CONTINUE BE THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...STILL LOOKING LIKE RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 06/1535Z AND NPP VIIRS AT 06/1511Z CLEARLY SHOW THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND AROUND INDIAN MOUNTAIN. OUT WEST THE STRATUS CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 06/1845Z NOT SHOWING INDICATING MUCH AS FAR AS POOR CONDITIONS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230- PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 172252 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 152 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN AND INITIALIZED WELL AT 12Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH THE LOW PLUS/MINUS 1MB. NAM HAS HANDLED THE PRECIPITATION WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED TEMPERATURES WELL SO WILL COBBLE TOGETHER SOME BLEND OF THE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS THIS GO AROUND. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE WINDS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE BUT WILL BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 493 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO BE OVER KOLYUCHIN BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS EVENING...THEN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES EAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE SITKA AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT 850 HPA...MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEK IN THE INTERIOR...WILL GO WITH NO AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD COOLING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS MIDWEEK. SURFACE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A 975 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND THIS MORNING AND A 981 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MORPH INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING AT 978 MB...THEN PINBALLS AROUND A LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO A DEVELOPING 999 MB LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO RUBY TO RAINY PASS...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO ALLAKAKET TO KANTISHNA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES EAST SUNDAY EVENING. A 1004 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY...THE OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL OFF AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL END ADVISORIES HERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 201 WHICH WILL HOLD ON TILL LATER THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY STILL GO BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES...BUT NOT FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARCTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT BEST WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT. SNOW TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TONIGHT AND ENDING BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE LOW BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE BERING STRAIT/CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...EXPECT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND IN THE COOL AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...INLAND AREAS COOLER STILL AS THE BUBBLE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT INLAND WITH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DIMINISHING TO TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE HERE...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AND NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER...MAYBE SOME FLURRIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE...BUT NOT GOING TO PUT ANY IN THE FORECAST SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW. SOME COOLING OF TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. SATELLITE...SPORT NPP VIIRS/MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 17/1804Z AND 17/1849Z CONFIRMS THE BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 17/2030Z SHOWS A PATCH OF LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND COLVILLE RIVER AND PRUDHOE BAY THAT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW. OUT WEST THE VAST AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOR LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND FOG. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 152230 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 130 PM AKST THU JAN 15 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES WITH ALL THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NAM WILL AGAIN BE THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THE SHORT TERM FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIE UP THE INTERIOR WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO THE YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THEN NORTHWEST TO A 540 DAM RIDGE OVER SIBERIA. THE RIDGE IS SPLITTING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT AS 503 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND A 507 DAM LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. BY FRIDAY MORNING A TROUGH WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR EAST. THE LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA WILL COMBINE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO A 497 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTHWEST TO THE BERING STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE UP THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE TOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IMPACTING THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MAY ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR. AT 850 HPA...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS. COLDER AIR MOVES TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BERING SEA AND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND 958 MB LOW 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING WITH TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPING UP THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE MAP TODAY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AS THEY RISE AND FALL WITH THE CHANGE OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS AS THE SOUTH WINDS KICK IN THEN FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES WHEN THE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR DIE DOWN. TROUGH UP THE WEST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST AND BROOKS RANGE/ARCTIC COAST. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH TO NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING STRAIT PUSHING THE STRONGER GRADIENT NORTH INTO THE THE CHUKCHI SEA...OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. CHINOOK FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT NOT TOO STRONG...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IT FALLS APART. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING SO TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE...HOWEVER WITH THE WIND COMES BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN LOWER IN OTHERS...SO WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ALL ZONES STARTING THIS EVENING. 20 TO 40 MPH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL TAPER DOWN TO THE AROUND 15 MPH BY SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...SNOW...CHANCE OF RAIN...A MIXED BAG FOR SURE ON THE WEST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...OTHERWISE WEAK COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE IT ALL SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF KIVALINA AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THOSE AREAS. STRONG WINDS AROUND NORTON SOUND SOUTH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WISE. AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE YUKON DELTA...NULATO HILLS...NORTON SOUND...AND THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH SOME PRECIPITATION OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE RANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WEAKEN SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND AROUND DELTA JUNCTION WILL GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR...SOME FLURRIES IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS...FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER WHICH WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALL OVER...NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE IN WINDY AREAS THEY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO NEAR 50 DEGREES...WHILE NORTH OF THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND FREEZING. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. SATELLITE...GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 15/2030Z SHOW A VAST AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...BERING STRAIT...AND MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. IFR AND LIFR PRODUCTS ONLY SHOWING SOME POOR CONDITIONS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 15/1841Z CONFIRMS THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 15/2037 SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING THE ARCTIC COAST...SO NOT MUCH HELP UP THERE RIGHT NOW. LATEST PASSES DO NOT COVER THE BERING SEA SO NO DATA AT THIS TIME OVER THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205- AKZ206. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXUS65 KMSO 081034 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 334 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2014 ...MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAK STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT... .DISCUSSION...A major change in the weather is coming Sunday night. An arctic air mass will spill westward from the Continental Divide starting Sunday night. Monday through Thursday will be some of the coldest November days recorded in western Montana and central Idaho. Some major impacts expected with this system are: * Cold air pouring across the Continental Divide will cause strong easterly winds and low wind chills, especially in Badrock and Hellgate canyons. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be the coldest. * Many mountain locations and some valleys in Western Montana will see low temperatures below zero by Wednesday morning. Near record low temperatures are expected. * Several inches of snow are expected in the Mountains. Higher elevations in the Swan and Mission as well as Glacier National Park may receive over a foot of snow from Sunday morning through Tuesday Morning. * Most valley locations in western Montana can expect some snow for the Monday morning commute. Uncertainty in the forecast increases quickly later next week due to the unusually strong system in the Gulf of Alaska, which is the remnants of Typhoon Nuri. However, below average temperatures are more likely than average or higher temperatures. && .AVIATION...Moderate high pressure situated over the area will bring a chance for fog to develop at KGPI, KMSO and KSMN. The VIIRS night-time visible satellite image at 08/1010z revealed some valley fog across Clearwater County, Idaho and also north across the Idaho Panhandle. Any fog that develops near the aforementioned terminals will dissipate by noon. Expect light and variable surface winds at all the terminals. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...WINTER STORM WATCH from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon Flathead/Mission Valleys. WINTER STORM WATCH from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$  ATHW40 PHFO 191235 SIMHI HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1230 UTC SAT JUL 19 2014 BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JULY 19 2014 THE LEADING EDGE OF AN OVERCAST SHIELD OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS LIES JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF WINDWARD MAUI...AND IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD MASS EXTENDS OVER 700 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...WITH SOME OF THIS MOISTURE DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE WALI...WITH THE LOW CLOUD SWIRL MARKING IT/S REMNANT CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 17N 146W...OR ABOUT 550 MILES EAST- SOUTHEAST OF WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. COOLER CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE LARGER MASS OF LOW CLOUDS EXTEND UP TO 200 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH CLOUD TOPS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 THOUSAND FEET. EAST OF THESE COOLER CLOUD TOPS...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR ABOUT 350 MILES BEFORE AN AREA OF EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF 144W...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 THOUSAND FEET. WEST OF THE ENCROACHING AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE...PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERY AND STABLE LOW CLOUDS TREKKING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH...WHILE THE SHOWERY CLOUDS APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A JUST RECEIVED VIIRS NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVER LEEWARD SIDES OF MOST ISLANDS...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS. A PATCH OF STABLE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IS ALONG THE LOWER KONA SLOPES...BUT INTERIOR AND UPSLOPE BIG ISLAND IS NEARLY CLEAR. NARROW RIBBONS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AXIS OF A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH ALOFT IS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. WITH A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...A STRONG GRADIENT ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE SUBTROPICAL JET...WHICH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE ISLANDS. $$ BIRCHARD  FXAK69 PAFG 231332 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 532 AM AKDT MON JUN 23 2014 .DISCUSSION... ALOFT AT 500 MB...A CLOSED LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF BARROW AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST BEFORE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN AS IT MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE YUKON FLATS ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH SLOPE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEDNESDAY MOVING THE LOW IN GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT MODELS GENERALLY BRING THE CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE DAWSON RANGE IN CANADA ON THURSDAY AND THEN TO EAGLE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HEAVY PERCIPITATION ONCE AGAIN TO CENTRAL INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1003 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PRUDHOE BAY THIS MORNING AND WILL TO THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES NEAR 73N 156W BY THIS EVENING WITH A WEAKER LOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THE LOW IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY TO 1001MB AND MOVE TO 75N AND 155W BY TUESDAY MORNING BRINING THE PRECIPITATION BANDS WELL NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ALSO HIGH PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BROAD THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. NORTH SLOPE...SOUNDING FROM 00Z SHOWED WARM NOSE LAYER ALOFT WHICH YESTERDAY WAS BRINING FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AREA. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL YET AGAIN THIS MORNING...BUT THE WARM TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN EXTENDING FROM WAINWRIGHT THROUGH DEADHORSE THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS TAPERING OFF BETWEEN NUIQSUT AND DEADHORSE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINING THE RAIN TO THE AREA SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST OF BARROW AND INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRATUS DECK PUSHING INTO KOTZEBUE SOUND LATE LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. EXPECT DENSE FOG ALONG KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI COASTLINE THIS MORNING. STRATUS DECK ALSO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NEARLY 60 MILES OFFSHORE OF NOME. THIS STRATUS DECK APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST SO COULD EXPECT PATCHY FOG ALONG THE BERING SEA COASTLINE FROM NOME TO WALES. THE REMNANTS OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING PRECIPITATION FROM FROM RUSSIAN MISSION NORTHWARD THROUGH GALENA TO NOATAK. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS THE RIDGE OF PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SITUATION FOR THE ALASKA RANGE AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ON THURSDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. THE NAM KEEPS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER EAST IN CANADA PLAYING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. DRIER AIR FILTERED INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR YESTERDAY AS SEEN IN THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WHICH WERE RECORDED IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...BUT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TODAY WITH 18 TO 30 PERCENT BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR...CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE...AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE CHENA RIVER IN NORTH POLE WAS EXTENDED TO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS CONTINUES TO REGULATE FLOW ON THE MOOSE CREEK DAM. THUS AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOOSE CREEK DAM ALONG THE CHENA RIVER IN NORTH POLE IS BANKFUL AND FLOWING INTO LOW LYING AREAS. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD ADVISORY AKZ222 && $$ MAK JUN 14  FXAK69 PAFG 221352 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 552 AM AKDT SUN JUN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... ALOFT AT 500 MB...SHORTWAVE IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE WEST INTO WESTERN INTERIOR AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW EAST OF NIKOLAI THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF LIME VILLAGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD TOWARDS PRUDHOE BAY WHERE A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN JUST EAST OF BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN LOW THAT WAS EAST OF LIME VILLAGE WILL WEAKEN AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SECONDARY LOW EAST OF BARROW WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE LOCATED 75N AND 154W BY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR RIDGE WILL BUILD ON MONDAY AND WILL SLIDE TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ARCTIC COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF UPCOMING WEEK AS THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIMILARLY BROUGHT THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WITH A 1002 MB CENTER LOCATED WEST OF MCGRATH AND 1003 MB LOCATED NORTHWEST OF CHICKEN. THE LOW NEAR CHICKEN WILL MOVE NORTH TO BE LOCATED NORTH OF ARCTIC VILLAGE MID MORNING TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS HOLY CROSS. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW NORTH OF BARROW BECOMING THE DOMINATE AND MOVING INTO THE OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES OVERNIGHT MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTH SLOPE...AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING WITH AREAS WEST OF BARROW AND AREAS EAST OF DEADHORSE WITH DENSE FOG. EXPECT VISIBILITIES ALONG THE COAST TO JUMP AROUND BETWEEN 2 MILES DOWN TO QUARTER MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO TEMPERATURES AT BARROW HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING WITH SOME DRIZZLE IN THE AREA EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS OVER DEADHORSE EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND THIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST WITH SHOWERS AS FAR WEST AS WAINWRIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVER BARROW SHOULD WARM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SO THAT IT REMAINS AS RAIN SHOWERS. THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF BARROW ON MONDAY MORNING WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA FROM WAINWRIGHT TO NUIQSUT AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TO OFFSHORE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME AREAS OF FOG SEEN IN THE VIIRS DNB SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI COAST SOUTH OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN TO DIOMEDE. EXPECT THE DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE WEST COAST SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA. HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR FROM THE EAST...INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY. DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF ANVIK TO TO CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHTER WITH TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH TO ALMOST HALF OF AN INCH BY MONDAY MORNING. THE NAM MODEL SHOWS SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH EXTENDING FROM THE PURCELL MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE LOCKWOOD HILLS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LATEST VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING SKIES EXTENDING FROM THE ALASKA RANGE NORTHWARD TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. EXCELLENT CLEAR VIEWS OF MT MCKINLEY THIS MORNING AS WELL. STILL HAVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN IT WILL SHIFT EAST BY MONDAY OUT OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE IN TO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S ON TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES 2 TO 5 DEGREES WARMING ON MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE HAS SHOWN INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE PASSES. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN ANTLER CREEK ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY AS WELL AS SOME OTHER PASSES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND DECREASE IN THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. ON TUESDAY...INSTABILITY WILL BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF INTERIOR...WITH THE MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL AREA OVER EASTERN INTERIOR AS WELL. && .HYDROLOGY... CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW RIVERS TO SLOWLY RECEDED. HOWEVER...LOOKING AHEAD THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME NOT CONFICENCE IN SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HOWEVER DO ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE UPPER AND LOWER SALCHA RIVER CONTINUES TO FALL AND ALL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ENDED YESTERDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY WAS CLOSED YESTERDAY EVENING AT MILEPOST 324 ALONG CLEAR CREEK NEAR SALCHA RIVER...AS A PORTION OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY HAS WASHED OUT. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CHENA RIVER FROM MOOSE CREEK DAM TO TWO RIVERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 115 PM AKDT SUNDAY. THE RIVER STAGE AT MOOSE CREEK DAM WAS AT 25.1 FEET AS OF 530 AM AKDT AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON MONDAY. THE CHENA RIVER AT HUNTS CREEK AS OF 530 AM AKDT IS 14.8 WHICH HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE CHENA RIVER IN NORTH POLE AS THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS ALASKA DISTRICT CONTINUES TO REGULATE FLOW TO 8,000 CFS ON THE CHENA RIVER. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245. FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ222 FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ2222 && $$ MAK JUN 14  FXAK69 PAFG 200046 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 446 PM AKDT THU JUN 19 2014 .DISCUSSION... ALOFT AT 500 MB...THE CLOSED LOW LOCATED SEEN BY VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH OVER CIRCLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST ALONG WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM NIKOLAI NORTHWARD TO HUGHES AND ANAKTUVUK PASS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON SATURDAY MORNING AND PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BRINGING YET AGAIN ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE SUMMER SOLSTICE ACTIVITIES. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN HOW IT HANDLES THIS FEATURE ON SUNDAY WHEN IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE GFS WANTS TO CREATE A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA...WHILE THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW BUT IT IS LOCATED OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND MOVES TOWARDS BARROW. INTERESTING THE GFS ON MONDAY CREATES A SIMILAR LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI COAST. IN EITHER CASE THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE EXTENDING FROM CAPE LISBURNE THROUGH BARROW ON MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN NEARLY 700 MILES NORTH OF MACKENZIE BAY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND AS IT STRENGTHENS TO 1032 MB. A 1005 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST ALASKA INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN TO A BROAD 1010 MB LOW OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR BY FRI MORNING WHILE ANOTHER THERMAL LOW AT 1004 MB DEVELOPS OVER CANADA AND MOVES WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NORTH SLOPE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO NORTH AND LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO EXPECT SOME AREAS OF FOG...BUT WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES RATHER THAN THE DENSE FOG. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FORM AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF BARTER ISLAND ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST...WITH PERHAPS SOME STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS WEST BUT WILL DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE STRATIFORM RAIN PUSHED INTO SOUTHERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING WHICH ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR. THIS CLEARING AND SOME INSTABILITY ALLOWED THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT EARLIER THIS AFTER WITH SOME DECENT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES OF 60DBZ...ALLOWING FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND MIX OF SMALL HAIL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOWS FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AROUND THE CENTER CIRCULATION AS STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR. MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WAS THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THAT COULD RANGE FROM QUARTER OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AN ALREADY MOISTENED REGION THAT RECEIVED WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES. THIS WILL CAUSE STREAMS AND RIVERS EXTENDING ACROSS AN WIDE AREA FROM CHENA...SALCHA...AND GOODPASTER RIVER BASINS TO RISE RAPIDLY. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY...COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE RIVERS WILL SEE ANOTHER SLIGHT RISE WITH THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS FROM INDIAN MOUNTAIN AND LAKE MINCHUMINA TO THE ALCAN BORDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. NO WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. NO RED FLAG CONCERNS ANTICIPATED. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR GOODPASTER RIVER WAS QUICKLY UPGRADED THIS MORNING TO FLOOD WARNING AS MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD FALLEN ACROSS THE RIVER BASIN. RAPID RISES STARTED OUT EARLY IN THE MORNING AND EXPECT TO REACH PEAK STAGE OF 20.5 FEET EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE GOODPASTER RIVER HAS REACHED 20 FEET ALREADY. THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR SALCHA RIVER REMAINS AS THE RIVER CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH VALUES NEAR 10 FEET AND EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 14.7 FEET ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR UPPER CHENA WAS UPGRADED AS WELL TO FLOOD WARNING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AS CURRENT VALUE IS NEAR 19.5 FEET AND POTENTIALLY CAUSING WATER TO FLOW OVER THE CHENA HOT SPRINGS ROAD AT 36.9 MP. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 20.8 FEET ON FRIDAY MORNING. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ MAK JUN 14  FXAK69 PAFG 042218 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 218 PM AKDT WED JUN 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS EVENING AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE WEST TO BE CENTERED 200NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN SIBERIA FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 80 NORTH AND 165 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DIG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL BE LOCATED 200 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL BE ALONG A BARROW TO BETTLES TO MCGRATH LINE BY THURSDAY MORNING AND ALONG A DEAD HORSE TO FORT YUKON TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TO MCGRATH LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO THE EAST TO BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF FAIRBANKS THURSDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST EAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AND HALTS THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO RETREAT TO THE WEST FRIDAY AND MOVES BACK TO NEAR TANANA SATURDAY. AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR ALASKA WITH SHARP COLD TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE...WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFTED VALUES DROP TO BETWEEN MINUS 1 AND MINUS 2 WITH CAPE VALUES BUILDING TO OVER 500 IN THE MOST UNSTABLE AREAS ALONG A BAND STRETCHING FROM FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO MCGRATH. EXPECT SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR FAIRBANKS THURSDAY EVENING. AMPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER RECENT WETTING RAINS AND EXPECTED RAIN WITH THE STORMS WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. WARMTH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE YUKON AND EASTERN ALASKA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES BUILD IN EXCESS OF 10 CELSIUS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE TO NEARLY 9000 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL CREATE ENHANCED RUNOFF WITH SNOW MELT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES CONTINUE TO DRY PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DROPPED CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH RH VALUES RANGING IN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS FIRE ZONE 224. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT A CONCERN THIS EVENING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR IMPACTING FIRE ZONES 224...220...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 218 AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF ZONE 222. LATEST VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POPCORN TYPE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY PERHAPS ALREADY BEGINNING NORTH OF FORT YUKON. MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AS THE 500 MB WEATHER PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO ACTIVE LIGHTNING STRIKE DAYS. IN PARTICULARLY WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TOMORROW...THIS COULD SET UP FOR MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR EXTENDING FROM MUCH OF ZONE 220 SOUTHWEST THROUGH PORTIONS OF 216 AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 227. AGAIN MAY BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. ALSO PREVIOUS ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM HAVE HELPED LESSEN THE CONCERN. FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... THE FLOOD WARNING FOR COLVILLE VILLAGE ON THE COLVILLE RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH WATER LEVELS DROPPING AS THE ICE JAM DOWN RIVER HAS RELEASED. EXPECT SNOW MELT RUN OFF TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH FREEZING LEVELS INCREASING FROM 5000 TO 7000 FEET AND IN THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE FREEZING LEVELS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 7000 FEET TO 9000 FEET BY THE WEEKEND. TANANA RIVER LEVELS REMAIN LOW HOWEVER SOME RISES CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ALASKA RANGE TRIBUTARIES CARRY INCREASING LEVELS OF SNOW MELT RUNOFF. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ CCC JUN 14  FXHW60 PHFO 141416 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST WED MAY 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL PROVIDE LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS TODAY. MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. DRIER WEATHER WITH LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES NEAR THE STATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER REST OF THE ISLANDS...THOUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SECTIONS. THE CLOUD BAND THAT PERSISTED IN THE ISLAND VICINITY HAS THICKENED A BIT OVERNIGHT...AS REVEALED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO PRETTY MUCH MIRRORED THE DESCRIBED WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS OVER LIHUE WHILE HILO SOUNDING REVEALED DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO OVER 9 THOUSAND IN A STABLE AIR MASS. THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE ISLAND VICINITY TODAY. THEREFORE EXPECT CLOUDIER AND WETTER WEATHER FOR MOLOKAI...MAUI AND WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WHILE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE COMBINING WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO BRING NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE EASTERLY BEGINNING TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING LIGHTER EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE WINDS RESULTING IN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND WEST...AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT DRIER WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE ISLANDS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS MAY ALSO BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS. THESE CONVECTION MAY DRIFT WESTWARD UNDER THE TRADE WIND FLOW...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE LEE AREAS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE NEAR THE ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IN TURN...SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL DECREASE FURTHER...ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT. FORECAST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY MAY REMAIN LOW...AND THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...THE WEATHER WILL PROBABLY FEEL WARM AND MUGGY OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN REGARDS TO HOW CLOSE THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL GET TO KAUAI BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOUTH OR EVEN SLIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE INCREASING SHOWERS FOR KAUAI EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... VIIRS IMAGE FROM 1226Z HIGHLIGHTS THE MVFR/LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT ALONG THE N AND E FACING SLOPES OF MAUI AND MOLOKAI THIS MORNING...AS WELL AS SIMILAR CONDITIONS ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY BROKEN BETWEEN 500-1000 FEET AT PHOG THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. MT OBSC AIRMET ALSO IN EFFECT FOR N AND E FACING SLOPES OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...AND PARTS OF BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK BUT PREDOMINANT MVFR WILL LINGER IN THOSE AREAS EVEN LONGER. && .MARINE... THE SHORT PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOWERING ON THURSDAY. A MEDIUM SIZE LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THURSDAY AND LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ AVIATION...R BALLARD REST...HUI  ATHW40 PHFO 131232 SIMHI HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1230 UTC TUE MAY 13 2014 BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 13 2014 AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE CLOUD BAND OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THIS CLOUD BAND IS THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT WHICH HAS STALLED OVER THE STATE. THE BAND AVERAGES ABOUT 170 MILES WIDE...AND IS CENTERED ON A LINE FROM NEAR 27N 146W TO MAUI TO 19N 160W. IT HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PORTION OF THE BAND THAT IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS A BIT WIDER. WHILE MOST OF THE BAND CONSISTS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST STABLE LOW CLOUDS...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD BAND STILL CONTAINS SOME SHOWERY CLOUDS ACCORDING TO BOTH CONVENTIONAL INFRARED /IR/ AND VIIRS VISIBLE DAY-NIGHT-BAND IMAGERY. IR IMAGERY SHOWED WIDELY SEPARATED CLOUD TOPS FROM 10-13 THOUSAND FEET ALONG THE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAND. TO THE NORTH OF THE OLD FRONTAL BAND IS A VAST FIELD OF BROKEN STABLE STRATOCUMULUS THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. LOW CLOUD COVERAGE HAD DECREASED OVER WINDWARD KAUAI OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT MUCH OF THE ISLAND CONTINUED TO HAVE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS. CLOUDS WERE BROKEN TO OVERCAST OVER MOST OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY...WITH A FEW LARGER BREAKS JUST SOUTH OF OAHU AND SOUTHWEST OF MAUI COUNTY. THERE WERE PASSING BROKEN CLOUDS OVER WINDWARD AND KAU DISTRICTS OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH A MORE PERSISTENT AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND FROM MAUNA LOA IN THE THE LEESIDE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS BAND EXTENDS OVER THE WATER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES DOWNSTREAM AND MERGES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. $$ R BALLARD  FXAK67 PAJK 221314 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 514 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE FROM A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DROPPING SW OUT OF THE YUKON WHILE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH ARE FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE LIFTING NW OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM MODIS AND VIIRS REVEAL SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND YAKUTAT. THE FOG AROUND PRINCE OF WALES HAS PROVED TO BE DENSE IN SOME PLACES AS HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK BOTH HAVE HAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. AS SUCH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK AREAS UNTIL 8 AM WHEN THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. THE WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER NICE FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH INTO THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S FOR MOST PLACES. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH SOME HIGHER WINDS FROM SEA BREEZES COULD CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA STARTS TO MOVE IN. INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO START TO BECOME A THREAT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT. IT WILL NOT QUITE GET TO YAKUTAT BY LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OBSERVED THE CLOSER TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS YOU ARE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY START CLEARING AND DRYING OUT LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION AGAIN THERE. AS SUCH I HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE WERE SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR THE INCOMING TROUGH. PRIMARILY WENT WITH THE NAM AND SOME ECMWF FOR OVERALL UPDATES AS BOTH LOOKED TO HAVE MORE OF THE CURRENT DETAILS. OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR. && .LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF A COMPACT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WED MORNING THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MODEST ASCENT/MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A COLD MIDLEVEL AIRMASS /-30 TO -35C AT H5/ WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED ON THU. MEANWHILE...A DRY MIDLEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE EXITS N. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMPTED A BUMP UP IN THU DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SRN AREAS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE UPPER WAVES IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE N INTO THE CWA FRI AND SAT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. NUDGED FRI HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THOSE EXPECTED ON THU DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE IS FORECAST FRI THROUGH TUE. THUS...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S ARE MAINTAINED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE GULF AND NERN PAC BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS LARGE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES PINWHEELING NWD FROM THE TROUGH INTO SE AK. FOR THIS REASON...WPC GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE ECMWF WAS PRIMARILY USED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051. && $$ EAL/GARNER  FXUS61 KCAR 170706 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 306 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MAIN CHALLENGE W/THIS TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH MELTING TAKES PLACE. THE OTHER CONCERN OF COURSE IS THE CONTINUED FLOODING AND WHAT TO EXPECT. FOR THE RIVERS AND FLOODING, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A STRONG 1040MB HIGH PRES SETTLING RIGHT OVER THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VIIRS SNOW/ICE BAND INDICATED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND REPORTS COMING OUR OF COOP OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS IS THAT UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBO OF THE CLEAR SKY AND FRESH SNOW COVER FROM YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR MID APRIL. SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE COULD HIT AROUND 5 ABOVE OR LOWER BY DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS SHOW NORTHERN MAINE LAKES STILL FROZEN OVER FOR THE MOST PART. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TO UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. FOR TONIGHT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL BE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. ATTM, THE WARM FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BEST. DECIDED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT A CATEGORY LOWER ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, WE CAN SEE SOME COLD TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING AREAS IN A SETUP SUCH AS THIS ONE. THEREFORE, MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST W/LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MAINE. THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOW TO MID 20S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY WITH 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO COLD GULF OF MAINE WATERS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERTURES TO THE NORTH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AS WINDS SHIFT TO AN OVERLAND TRAJECTORY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A MORE AMPIFLIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AT NORTHERN TAF SITES /KFVE KCAR KPQI KHUL/ && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SWELL OF 11 SECONDS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE W/WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 6 FT. THE SWAN GUIDANCE PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND KEPT HEIGHTS UP A WHILE LONGER THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD COME DOWN BEFORE MID MORNING. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT W/SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS GIVEN THAT HIGH PRES WILL BE MOVING IN. SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AS FLOODING STILL BEING REPORTED IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS REGION. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. WILL ADDRESS THIS LATER THIS MORNING AS REPORTS COME IN. SOME RIVERS STILL RUNNING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE SUCH AS THE MATTAWAMKEAG AND PENOBSCOT RIVERS. THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER- FOXCROFT AND MEDFORD CRESTED WEDNESDAY EVENING AND IS NOW RECEDING. RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH IN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF LEVELING OFF. MIGHT BE ABLE TO LET THE FLOOD WATCH GO BY LATER THIS MORNING. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND AROOSTOOK BASINS, ICE MOVING W/HIGH WATER LEVELS BUT W/IN THEIR BANKS. LATEST REPORTS FROM THE LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES ARE THAT THE AROOSTOOK IS OPEN BUT RUNNING HIGH AND THE THE ST. JOHN IS OPEN FROM DICKEY DOWN INTO VAN BUREN. SOME ICE STILL EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF VAN BRUEN DOWN TO HAMLIN, BUT OPEN WATER IS NOW SETTING UP. THERE STILL IS AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY PLACES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY AND BACK INTO THE ALLAGASH. THEREFORE, THE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WILL ADD TO WATER LEVELS. SOME ROADS IN THE REGION STILL REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO TUESDAY'S RAIN EVENT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001>006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...OKULSKI LONG TERM...OKULSKI AVIATION...HEWITT/OKULSKI MARINE...HEWITT/OKULSKI HYDROLOGY...  FXAK69 PAFG 170023 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 423 PM AKDT WED APR 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... ALOFT AT 500 MB...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS NORTHEAST OF BARROW EARLIER TODAY AND HAS MOVED NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL REMAINS BUT SEVERAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES EMBEDDED WILL FILTER THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THERE WAS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NORTHWARD SPARKING SOME RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED POCKETS OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FINALLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA NORTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE NEAR BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN START TO DEVIATE WITH THE ECMWF WEAKENING INTO A LOW TROUGH AND THEN REDEVELOPING THE LOW OVER ST MATHEW ISLAND AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE AS THE GFS PLACES THE LOW OVER SEWARD PENINSULA. TENDING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE... A 994 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL MEANDER SLOWLY AROUND DUTCH HARBOR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THEN REDEVELOP TO 992 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA WITH A 1020MB HIGH OVER WRANGEL ISLAND THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TO 1013 MB BY FRI MORNING WITH LOCATION OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WELL NORTH OF BARROW AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO BE LOCATED WELL NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE INTERIOR THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR. THE REMNANT OF THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO NORTH SLOPE...DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS IMPROVED BRIEFLY FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST HAVE DEVELOPED DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. AS TYPICAL WITH THE FOG ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE IT WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER UP AND DOWN WITH THE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE MORNING. GIVEN SEVERAL SITES WITH DENSE FOG...HAVE A DENSE FOG HEADLINE THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH FOG AND FLURRIES EXPECTED. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MAIN FEATURES IMPACTING THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA IS EXTENDING FROM GALENA TO RUBY AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS BETTLES IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THERE IS ALSO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING OVER THE BERING STRAIT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LATEST VIIRS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 330 PM AKDT SHOWS THE MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ALAKSAN RANGE AND EASTERN INTERIOR. ALSO SEEN IS THE REMNANT OF THE LINE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THAT EXTENDED FROM GALENA TOWARDS BETTLES. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND ALSO HAVE SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER IN THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RAY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS BETTLES. SHOWER ACTIVITY && .FIRE WEATHER... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 223 AND 225...EXPECT CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH EXPECT A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. ALSO EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO RANGE IN THE 30S TO 40S. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ MAK APR 14  FXUS66 KMTR 161530 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 830 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY WINDS. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED AROUND MONTEREY BAY AND THROUGH THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE REASON? NORTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT RAMPED UP TO OVER 7 MB OVERNIGHT HELPING TO PUSH THE STRATUS DECK TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH WARM CONDITIONS INLAND -- UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. AT THE COAST AN WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ WHERE THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOWNSLOPE AND HELP TO PUSH HIGHS 75-80. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO MONDAY BEFORE A BIG CHANGE HITS US ON TUESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN TO OUR AREA HELPING TO DROP 700 MB TEMPS TO THE -9 TO -11C RANGE. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS THE ONE BIG QUESTION MARK, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE GENERATED. IF THE MODELS VERIFY SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO UNDER 4000 FEET AND INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY INCREASE LEADING TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH. UNLESS THERE IS A HUGE CHANGE IN THE MODELS, TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE HILLS. STILL NEARLY A WEEK OUT, BUT IT'S VERY INTERESTING FOR A LATE APRIL SYSTEM! .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHTS VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS. A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS IN MRY BAY AND IN THE SALINAS VALLEY AND ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST THIS MORNING. STRONG N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT INDICATES DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDS OUT OF THE SFO BAY AREA TODAY. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST AFTERNOON WINDS TO 20 KT AFTER 20Z. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS THROUGH 17-18Z. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM GLW...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/KBB AVIATION: W PI VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  FXUS66 KMTR 161129 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 429 AM PDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND GUSTY WINDS. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 03:53 AM PDT WEDNESDAY...TONIGHTS VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 230 AM SHOWED PATCHY LOW CLOUDS NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND SALINAS VALLEY. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY INDICATING STRATUS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SALINAS VALLEY...NEAR HALF MOON BAY...AND MONTEREY BAY THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS HAVE KEPT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND CONFINED STRATUS TO CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE COAST FAVORED BY NW WINDS. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER UNDER 1500 FEET. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SFO-ACV OVER 6 MB TODAY AND WINDS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST BREEZY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. HRRR MODEL SURFACE RH FIELD INDICATES LIMITED STRATUS AGAIN TODAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH A BETTER ESTABLISHED MARINE LAYER...SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROF IN ZONAL FLOW WILL APPROACH THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER AND INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. THIS TROF SPLITS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...AND THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO 10 DEG C SHOULD DISRUPT THE MARINE LAYER FRIDAY BUT SPREAD COOLER AIR INLAND WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ANOTHER MINOR SYSTEM WILL BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH MORE COASTAL CLOUDS. A STRONGER TROF WILL DROP OVER CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING THIS STRONGER SYSTEM...AND EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM LACKS A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TAP...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND SHOWERS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:50 PM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PATCHY STRATUS NEAR THE MONTEREY BAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RAMPED UP TO WELL OVER 6 MB FROM ACV TO SFO...THUS EXPECT LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS IMPACTS ACROSS THE BAY AREA TAF LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME CIGS OVER SAN JOSE AND OAKLAND LATE...AND STRATUS WILL IMPACT THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AND APPROACH. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS BECOMING LOCALLY IFR LATE. CLEARING EXPECTED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM GLW...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...MONTEREY BAY FROM 1 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB AVIATION: SIMS VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  FXAK69 PAFG 102219 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 219 PM AKDT THU APR 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... ALOFT AT 500MB...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL GET PUSHED DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA INCLUDING THE ARCTIC COAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARDS BARROW BY THURSDAY NIGHT...TO PRUDHOE BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO MACKENZIE BAY DELTA BY MID MORNING FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL PULL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION OF ALASKA...THE WIND FLOW AT 700MB WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE ALASKA RANGE STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WARMING WILL OCCUR AS 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FROM -18C FROM THE PAFA SOUNDING TO PROJECTED FORECAST BY THE MODELS OF -9C FRIDAY MORNING...-5C ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND -2C BY SUNDAY MORNING AT PAFA. STILL KEEP SOME COOLER AIR ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AT THE SURFACE... 1015 MB TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND DISSIPATE IN CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MACKENZIE DELTA AND STRENGTHEN TO 1029MB BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ALASKA IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT GETS PUSHED EASTWARD WITH ONLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR UNDER HIGH PRESS ON SATURDAY. A 993 LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA SAT MORNING WITH THIS LOW STRENGTHENING TO 986 MB AND BECOME LOCATED AT 58N AND 178W OR ROUGHLY 420 NM SW OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS WILL BE THE LOW THAT PULLS MOISTURE AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE YUKON DELTA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND SPREADS NORTHWARD. NORTH SLOPE...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALREADY HAVE VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AT SOME LOCATION ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST EXTENDING TOWARDS BARROW. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF BARROW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED AND WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AROUND THE CAPE LISBURNE AREA. WESTERN ALASKA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA AS SEEN FROM VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY. WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASING ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA ON SATURDAY. PERHAPS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AT THIS TIME. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NULATO HILLS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH WARMING TREND UNDERWAY. EXPECT WEAK CHINOOK WINDS TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY INTO MONDAY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. EXPECTING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 4O MPH OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION EXTENT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT DISTURBANCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... GRADUAL WARMING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN AND NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MAK APR 14  FXUS66 KMTR 061127 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 427 AM PDT SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK...AND IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT SUNDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALONG 130W...BUILDING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS WARMING THE AIRMASS ALOFT AND GENERATING GREATER LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THE RESULT IS DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY ALONG THE SAN MATEO COUNTY COAST. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD BY DAYBREAK. BUT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE VEERS MORE TO THE NORTH AND BEGINS TO ADVECT A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN...EVEN AT THE OCEAN. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVER CALIFORNIA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE NORTH. BY MONDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE 80S INLAND. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INLAND ON TUESDAY WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT CLOSE TO 18 DEG C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MONTEREY COUNTY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY. COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE A MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT ON TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TURNS TO THE SOUTH. COASTAL TEMPS LIKELY WON'T WARM ANY FURTHER ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK...RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT ALL THAT LIKELY (SEE RECORD HIGHS IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFF TO OUR EAST BY MIDWEEK AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL TRIGGER A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND A COOLING TREND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COOLING ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL VALLEYS...WITH COOLER AIR THEN SPREADING FARTHER INLAND BY THURSDAY. THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS MOISTURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN CA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THUS...THERE APPEARS LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:15 AM PDT SUNDAY...MAJOR OVERHAUL TO FORECAST PACKAGE. WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. LATEST SPORT MODIS/VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRATUS REMAINS OFF THE COAST WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT INLAND. LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS STRATUS OUT OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. VFR TONIGHT AS WELL. CONF IS MED-HIGH. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. GUSTY ONSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. && .MARINE AND BEACH...AS OF 4:17 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LONG PERIOD SWELL IS TAKING ITS TIME ARRIVING ON THE CENTRAL COAST. HOWEVER...LATEST BUOY REPORTS TO THE N ARE STARTING TO PICK UP ON THE 17-18 SECOND PERIOD. ONCE THE LONGER PERIOD MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING...IT WILL NOT BE LARGE BUT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND CAPABLE OF WASHING PEOPLE FROM BEACHES AND FISHERMEN FROM ROCKS AND JETTIES IN THE FORM OF SNEAKER WAVES. THEREFORE A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. && .CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR APRIL 6TH THROUGH 8TH. AT FIRST GLANCE IT APPEARS THAT 1989 FEATURED A MULTI-DAY HEAT SPELL. SF BAY AREA .LOCATION................APRIL 6TH APRIL 7TH APRIL 8TH KENTFIELD...............94/1924 91/1989 91/1989 SAN RAFAEL..............87/1989 88/1989 91/1989 NAPA....................91/1939 89/1989 91/1989 SAN FRANCISCO...........91/1989 92/1989 94/1989 SFO AIRPORT.............89/1989 89/1989 92/1989 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)......86/1989 87/1989 88/1989 RICHMOND................89/1989 90/1989 93/1989 LIVERMORE...............89/1939 89/1989 90/1989 SAN JOSE................93/1989 93/1989 94/1989 GILROY..................91/1989 94/1989 96/1989 MONTEREY BAY AREA .LOCATION...............APRIL 6TH APRIL 7TH APRIL 8TH MONTEREY...............90/1989 92/1989 92/1989 SANTA CRUZ.............93/1989 94/1989 90/1989 SALINAS................97/1989 98/1989 78/1980 SALINAS AIRPORT........97/1989 98/1989 95/1989 KING CITY..............98/1989 98/1989 100/1989 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM UNTIL 9 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: MM MARINE: MM CLIMATE: RWW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  FXCA62 TJSJ 060820 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS THRU TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG TODAY YET TO COMPLETELY INHIBIT AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS FOR NW PR WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A T-STORM THERE. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY MON-WED LEADING TO RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS BECOMING ALMOST NIL. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRI BUT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS RIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG MOISTURE RECOVERY UNTIL NEXT SUN APR 13. SO A VERY DRY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS BLO FL100 WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ISOLD-SCT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH FEW EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS DURG PRD FM 06/8Z-06/12Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR MAINLY OVR ERN PR FM 06/08Z-06/12Z. BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS AT LOCAL TAF SITES MAINLY TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 17Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONSOF PUERTO RICO...THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TJMZ THROUGH 22Z. && .MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THRU TUE THEN DIMINISHING. NNE SWELLS WILL PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY THROUGH TUE IN AREAS THAT HAD SOME RAIN LAST WEEK. BOTH CAMP SANTIAGO AND CABO ROJO MISSED MOST OF THE RAIN WITH ONLY 0.20 AND 0.10 INCHES FALLING THERE RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST KBDI AT CABO ROJO REMAINS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHILE AT CAMP SANTIAGO IS AN ALL TIME HIGH USING A CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 2004. VIEQUES RAWS LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND HAS HAD 1.40 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES MISSED ALMOST ALL THE RAIN. COTTON VALLEY RAWS IN ST. CROIX HAS HAD 1.28 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL WHILE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT HAS HAD 1.77 INCHES. HOWEVER...LONG TERM (30-DAY) DEFICITS INDICATE BOTH THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX ARE HAVING SIG RAINFALL DEFICITS. IN ADDITION...RECENT VIIRS TRUE COLOR AND MODIS NDVI IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO ISLANDS REMAIN BROWN WITH HIGH FUEL LOADING SUGGESTING FUELS ARE READY FOR FIRE WITH HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING. BASED ON LATEST GFS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE WITH FIRE WX CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT WED AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 85 76 87 75 / 10 10 10 0 STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 0 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIEQUES-SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND. VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ 10/64  FXUS66 KMFR 211141 AAA AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 441 AM PDT FRI MAR 21 2014 UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS .DISCUSSION...AT THE SURFACE A THERMAL TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS IS BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND TO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ALOFT NORTHWEST FLOW IS BRINGING A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE AREA TODAY BUT EXPECT CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THEN ON THE WEEKEND , A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANGE TO A WETTER AND COOLER REGIME. THIS MORNING SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE AREA. ALSO LIGHT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED IN MANY INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT AREAS OF FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY IN OUTLYING AREAS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY, THE APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS AND INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY. GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THESE AREAS RANGING FROM 22 TO 30 DEGREES F EARLY THIS MORNING, EXPECT LOCATIONS THAT ARE PROTECTED FROM WIND TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER MODOC COUNTY AND OVER AREAS FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE NAM AND RUC KEEP THE AREA DRY. GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE EXPECT MAINLY JUST SOME CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STILL EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THEN ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INLAND OVER THE REGION, THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND AND WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL WEAKEN. MEANWHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR INLAND ON MONDAY. THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MOIST AND COOL PATTERN DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SERIES OF FRONTS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST OF THESE IS A MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH MODELS SHOW APPROACHING THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AND MOVING INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH, MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET, AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 5000 FEET. /CC && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE. LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL BRING MVFR TO KRBG FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY AROUND 17Z. PATCHY IFR FOG IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COQUILLE VALLEY AND THE LOWER UMPQUA BASIN NEAR REEDSPORT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 30KT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST NEAR KOTH. SPILDE && .MARINE...NORTH GALES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO TODAY AS A THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GALES WILL NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN INNER ZONE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING STEEP TO VERY STEEP WIND DRIVEN SEAS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 40 NM OFFSHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT WILL EXIST OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD EASE SOMEWHAT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WETTER AND WINDIER PATTERN WITH MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. CA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CAZ081. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ081. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356. GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ376. $$ MAS/CC  FXUS62 KCHS 201030 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 630 AM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WHILE A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A TIMELY SUOMI NPP VIIRS NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE CIRRUS DECK IS NOT NEARLY AS THICK AS EXPECTED. THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED THROUGH MID-MORNING TO TAKE THIS INTO ACCOUNT. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP SOME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AS A RESULT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO DROP. JESUP RECENTLY REPORTED A VISIBILITY OF 1/2 MILE AND FORT STEWART WAS AT 2 MILES AS OF 20/1015Z. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG...BRYAN AND LIBERTY COUNTIES TO ADDRESS LOCALLY DENSE FOG THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL PROPAGATE TO THE WEST...EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A POWERFUL 130 KT JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO EXIT OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SO EXPECT A SUNNY DAY ONCE THE HIGH CLOUDS EXIT OFFSHORE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WHICH LOOK REASONABLE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A WEAK SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LAND/OCEAN THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS APPROACH 15-20 DEGREES...BUT THE WEST/NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL LOW- LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH CIRCULATION NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET YIELDING LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT A SOLID RADIATIONAL SETUP. OPTED TO TREND LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV-COOP AND ECMWF MOS DATA SETS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 INLAND...LOWER/MID 40S AT THE COAST AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES. COULD SEE SOME VERY LIGHT/PATCHY FROST IN OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF JENKINS-SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES WHERE A FEW MID 30S COULD OCCUR...BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY...QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START OFF THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE SHIFT OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH OFFSHORE WHILE A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT CONTINUES OFF THE SFC. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SHOW A WARMER TREND...WITH TEMPS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS FOR THE DAY. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST...AGAIN WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE THE SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST BY THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD...IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. SUNDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OFF WARM AND MAINLY DRY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN ENHANCED MID/UPPER LVL WIND FIELDS ALONG WITH THE ARRIVING FRONT. HOWEVER...A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED INSTABILITY...THUS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING WITH A COLD FRONT SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL THEN BE MUCH COLDER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL POST FROPA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND NEAR 60 OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO MIDWEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF MID LVL SHORTWAVES SHIFT OVER THE AREA WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY AND EVEN COLDER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND TO THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW 60S ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIP OFFSHORE. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT...THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. && .MARINE... TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WEST AFTER SUNRISE AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SOMEWHAT OF A PINCHED GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT. THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT...CLOSER TO 15-20 KT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...BUT NOT QUITE READY TO FORECAST CONDITIONS THAT HIGH JUST YET. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 2-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR MOST WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ENHANCED BETWEEN STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$  FXAK69 PAFG 192051 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1251 PM AKDT WED MAR 19 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE SHORT TERM QUITE WELL THIS WEEK SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF PULLING A LOW OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY SUNDAY EVENING AND THE GFS MAINTAINING RIDGING OVER THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 510 DAM LOW OVER 73N 175E WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIES FROM OVER WAINWRIGHT TO FAIRBANKS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND IS MOVING EAST. RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND A 552 DAM HIGH WILL BE PINCHED OFF TONIGHT AS A 528 DAM LOW SHOOTS EAST OVER 52N. RIDGE WILL ELONGATE EAST TO WEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO 556 DAM AND BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHT COOLING TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED MORE BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. SURFACE...DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES FROM WAINWRIGHT TO FAIRBANKS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND WILL PUSH TO THE BORDER LATE THIS EVENING. 1036MB HIGH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AT 1041MB BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN IS ABSORBED INTO A 1045MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO KOTZEBUE SOUND. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWER YUKON TERRITORIES BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE BROOKS RANGE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHUTTING OFF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST...STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE AREA STILL SHOWING UP ON THE NPP VIIRS SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AT 18/1303Z THE 1.61 UM REFL PRODUCT WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE DECAYING FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND THE RIDGE MOVES NORTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE FOR PLEASANT WEATHER. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES PRETTY STEADY AND WILL BE DEPEND MORE ON CLOUD COVER. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OR OFFSHORE AT 5 TO 15 MPH. INTERIOR...CLEARING WILL CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS EVENING. SOME COOLING AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT SLOW WARMING BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT TO NORTHEAST UP TO 10 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 182044 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1244 PM AKDT TUE MAR 18 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...12Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z. MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FAIRBANKS AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE MOVES OVER NORTON SOUND. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT SETS UP OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...THOUGH THEY DO NOT ALL AGREE ON THE WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT OUT PAST 100 HOURS CONCERNING A LOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC AND INTO THE INTERIOR SO WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND YESTERDAY HAS BEEN ABSORBED IN TO 500 DAM LOW NEAR 65N 168E THE ASSOCIATED LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER POINT HOPE TO OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA TO A 523 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER CORDOVA THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT TO LIE FROM OVER WRANGEL ISLAND OVER BARROW TO OVER DAWSON YUKON TERRITORY...THEN SOUTH TO 524 DAM LOW OVER GUSTAVUS. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA CONTINUES TO BUILD AND MOVE EAST...IT WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN A CUTOFF 548 DAM CENTER MOVES OVER CAPE ROMANZOF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 518 DAM CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPS PINCH OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING A COUPLE DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE PREVIOUS 5 TO 7 DEGREES SO WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR NEXT COUPLE DAYS...STILL SHOW TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW CELSIUS. SURFACE...1004MB LOW NEAR POINT HOPE IS MOVED NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD TREK INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR. THE DECAYING FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER POINT HOPE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH OUT AS IT EXTENDS FROM POINT LAY TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO GOBBLERS KNOB TO HEALY AND SOUTH BY MIDNIGHT...THEN FROM BARROW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO FORT YUKON TO DELTA JUNCTION TO VALDEZ BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO CHALKYITSIK TO CHICKEN TO CORDOVA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CUTOFF 1031MB HIGH IS OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OVER NORTON SOUND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STILL CONFLICTED ON WHETHER OR NOT TO BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE INTERIOR...WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO GET SOME MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE SPOTTY. ARCTIC COAST...NPP VIIRS SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AT 18/1322Z CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC COASTAL WATER AND ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT EXPECT IT WILL FINALLY BE PUSHED OFFSHORE AS THE DECAYING FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD AND MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY STEADY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO KICK UP A LITTLE AND SWITCH AROUND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA SO EXPECT A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH FROM THE WEST TO NORTH. INTERIOR...SNOW ALONG THE DECAYING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CLEARING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL UP TO 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE INTERIOR...THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE IN THE WHITE AND RAY MOUNTAINS DUE TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. SOME COOLING AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH BUT NOT AS MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION AS WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY BY THE MODELS. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO 15 TO 20 MPH MOVING OVER THE HILLS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 172055 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1255 PM AKDT MON MAR 17 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND INITIALIZED WELL AT 12Z. GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW UP THE WEST COAST AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA AND MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN IS IS CUTOFF WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOOTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE ABSORBED IN TO 490 DAM LOW NEAR 65N 170E BY TUESDAY MORNING...LONG WAVE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SOUTH. A 520 DAM LOW DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES EAST OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER RUSSIA TO OVER BARROW TO OVER OLD CROW THEN SOUTH OVER YAKUTAT. WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS EVENING BUILDS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 548 DAM CENTER OVER CAPE ROMANZOF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 518 DAM CLOSED LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC CUTS THE RIDGE OFF AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...A LITTLE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONTS WITH TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND 15 BELOW CELSIUS THURSDAY THEN SLOWLY RISING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. SURFACE...988MB LOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING NORTH INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK LOW WILL BREAK OFF THE MAIN LOW AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 995MB LOW OVER NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY BREAKS OFF THE MAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES EAST TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE DECAYING FRONTAL BAND WILL EXTEND FROM TIN CITY TO KING SALMON AND SOUTH THIS EVENING...THEN FROM POINT HOPE TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO HOMER AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO EAGLE TO YAKUTAT AND SOUTH LATE TUESDAY EVENING. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY EVENING...THEN OVER NORTON SOUND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT IS CUT OFF AS A 1035 CLOSED HIGH. THE HIGH THEN DRIFTS TO THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD QPF NUMBERS OVER THE NULATO HILLS THIS EVENING THEN PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST WITH THE DECAYING TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY AND BRING SNOW TO THE INTERIOR...GFS SEEMS A LITTLE FAST COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS SO WILL BACK IT OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND FAIRBANKS. ARCTIC COAST...NPP VIIRS SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT AT 17/1341Z CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS UP OVER THE NORTH SLOPE IS SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE. A FEW FLURRIES OF SOME LIGHT SNOW UNTIL THE STRATUS MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE RIDGE BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY EAST 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST...HEAVIEST SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. WINDS DIMINISHING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT CLEARING OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING THEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. INTERIOR...PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING. SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE WHITE AND RAY MOUNTAINS WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DECAYING FRONT...THEN SOME COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. COLDEST MORNING WILL BE THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW RANGE FOR THE VALLEYS AND AROUND 5 BELOW IN THE HILLS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ215. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 162116 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 116 PM AKDT SUN MAR 16 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUNNING A LITTLE SLOW ON THIS LATEST MODEL RUN BASED ON INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z RUNS. THERE IS CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE RIDGE AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING SEA AND MOVES TO THE WEST COAST...THEN IS IS CUTOFF AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOOTS EAST ALONG 52N. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...497 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER SHISHMAREF MOVES TO 67N 170E BY MONDAY MORNING AND IS ABSORBED BY A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. SECONDARY LOW LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA 200NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA WILL OVER CAPE ROMANZOF BY MONDAY MORNING THEN WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND TO BE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ON MONDAY EVENING BUILDS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED 550 DAM CENTER OVER EMMONAK BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A 515 DAM CLOSED LOW SHOOTS EAST ALONG 50N CUTTING OFF THE HIGH. SURFACE...972MB LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE MOUTH OF NORTON SOUND TONIGHT. SECONDARY LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY MORNING THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE NORTHERN LOW. NORTON SOUND LOW WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE COAST TO BE NEAR POINT HOPE BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 1003MB. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TODAY MOVING TO THE BROOKS RANGE MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND SOUTHERN NULATO HILLS NOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MAINTAINED WHILE THE LOW SITS JUST OFFSHORE AND DRIFTS NORTH. COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL WORK NORTH CLEARING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST...NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT AT 16/1400Z SHOWS LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS FROM BARROW EAST AND OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. HARD TO FIGURE MOVEMENT WITH ONLY A COUPLE PICTURES BUT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERN HALF IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND THE EASTERN HALF IS DRAGGING WEST AND SLIDING NORTH. EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BE PUSHED OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST COAST AND THEN NORTH...BUT IT MAY HANG UP ALONG THE COAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME WILD WEATHER MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NULATO HILLS THIS EVENING AND SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING OVER THAT AREA. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH TONIGHT WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW FALLING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BUT EXPECT IT TO BE BELOW WARNING LEVELS WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING IN THE NORTON SOUND REGION WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THEN DIMINISH MONDAY. WINDS INCREASING IN KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL PEAK MONDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN AREAS WHICH WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE WEST COAST AND SPREADS HIGH CLOUDS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES IN THE INTERIOR AS THE DECAYING TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPSLOPE CONDITIONS DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN SOME COOLING LATER IN THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISHING EARLY TOMORROW. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH NEAR SOME OF THE PASSES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226-AKZ227. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 152241 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 241 PM AKDT SAT MAR 15 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS THEN SOME DIVERGENCE ON THE HANDLING OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OFF FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER RUSSIA AND MOVING EAST OVER THE STATE. GOOD CONCENSUS ON THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. GOOD INITIALIZATION AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING AND MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH MIDWEEK. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...CLOSED 502 DAM LOW OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA IS MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER SHISHMAREF BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVES TO 67N 175E BY MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. A 497 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FILL AND TRACK EAST AS A 519 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY EVENING. RIDGE BUILDING IN MIDWEEK WILL PUSH 540 HEIGHTS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW OR COLDER AIR COVERS THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE MAINLAND TODAY...IT WILL BE PUSHED NORTH TONIGHT AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...AND THE COLD BALL WILL EXIT THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK WARM AIR OR NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A 1011MB CENTER OVER TANANA LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH CONTINUES NORTH WITH CENTER OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN IT MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND DISSIPATES. A SHARP RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PUSH NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE BEING BEATEN DOWN BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE STATE. STRONG GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KICK WINDS UP OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. ARCTIC COAST...NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT AT 15/1238Z NOT SHOWING MUCH STRATUS AROUND BUT THERE IS SOME THAT MOVED INTO BARROW THIS MORNING AND SHOULD MOVE WEST TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 15 MPH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING THEN BECOMING EAST TO 15 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SHOULD BE A WILD COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADING NORTH INTO THE LOWER DELTA BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUING UP THE WEST COAST. WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW TO START...THEN A BOUT OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE NULATO HILLS. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS COLD AIR IS PUSHED NORTH. INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. SOME STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 55 MPH. MAY GET SOME STRONG WINDS IN THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUN TO SEE WHAT IT SPITS OUT. TEMPERATURES STEADY BUT MAY SEE A BOOST WITH THE CHINOOK ACTION IN THE ALASKA RANGE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226-AKZ227. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXUS66 KMTR 141520 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 820 AM PDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM OVER THE WEEKEND -- POSSIBLY TO RECORD BREAKING LEVELS. SOME COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS THE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:20 AM PDT FRIDAY...CLEARING FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL. BIGGER STORY WILL BE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD PLUS WARMEST 850 MB READINGS. THOSE WILL COMBINE WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE VERY WARM READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WOULD DEFINITELY EXPECT A FEW RECORDS TO FALL. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK -- WILL JUST DO AN UPDATE AS THE CLOUDS BREAK THIS MORNING. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DRY TAIL END OF A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS APPROACHING OUR DISTRICT...AND RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE STRATUS. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...AND IN RATHER SPECTACULAR DETAIL JUST REC'D SUOMI VIIRS NIGHTTIME HIGH RES VISUAL IMAGE...SHOW COVERAGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST FROM PT REYES SOUTH TO THE VICINITY OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA...AND A BROAD SWATH EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS SAN FRANCISCO AND THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE TO THE EAST BAY. LATEST BODEGA BAY AND FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF ABOUT 1300 FT. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO PASSING THROUGH ABOVE. NAM MODEL AND IN-HOUSE LOCAL WRF MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER RH OUTPUT BOTH INDICATE STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR BY MIDDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ESPECIALLY INLAND. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH WARMING OF TEMPS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE...ALBEIT RATHER WEAKLY. THE NET RESULT FOR US WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS...ESP AWAY FROM THE COAST. THAT SAID...MODEL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN MILDLY IN THE DIRECTION OF NOT QUITE AS MUCH WARMING ALOFT AND A BIT LESS BY WAY OF OFFSHORE FLOW. ECMWF OUTPUT FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WAS PROJECTING 850 MB TEMPS OVER THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA WOULD REACH UP TO 16C AT THE HEIGHT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WARMING...BUT NOW CONFINED TO THE 14C TO 14.5C RANGE. AND SIMILARLY WITH SURFACE TROUGHING SHIFTED JUST A BIT MORE INLAND...AND SO A BIT LESS BY WAY OF OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW. DOESN'T CHANGE THE BASIC PICTURE THAT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL REACH TO WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...BUT CHANCES OF GETTING UP TO RECORD LEVELS HAS DIMINISHED A BIT. ALSO NOT AS MUCH OF A WARM-UP NEAR THE COAST AS HAD BEEN THINKING A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. IN THE SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME...MODELS PROJECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND AS ANOTHER...AND A BIT STRONGER...WEATHER SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES AND MOVES IN TO THE PACIFIC NW. AGAIN NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA...BUT IT WILL RESULT IN BOTH SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AND A QUICK RETURN TO MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STRATUS LOOKS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING...AND DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH STILL GENERALLY REMAIN SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FOR DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO FOR EXAMPLE...PRESENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 72 ON SUNDAY COOLING TO 67 ON MONDAY...BUT THAT'S STILL 5 DEGS ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM FOR THE DATE OF 62. THEREAFTER NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK...BUT THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT AS LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RESULTS IN THE STORM TRACK SHIFTING A BIT SOUTHWARD. WE'LL STILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIP. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:56 AM PDT FRIDAY...FOR 12Z TAFS. 1500 FOOT CLOUD DECK HAS SPREAD INTO SF BAY WITH LOWER CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND AROUND MONTEREY BAY. EVIDENCE SUGGESTS CLOUD LAYER NOT TOO THICK AND FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CIGS BURNING OFF BY 1730Z. TAF WAS COMPOSED CONSERVATIVE AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLEARING EARLIER...CLOSER TO 17Z. OTHERWISE WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO IMPACT TO OPERATIONS. THE PATTERN CHANGES TONIGHT SO NOT CONVINCED WE'LL GET CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VICINITY OF KSFO...1400-1500 FOOT STRATUS DECK OVER AIRPORT SHOULD MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR BY 1730Z. WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 17 KT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SO FAR CIGS AREN'T SHOWING UP AT THE BRIDGE BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE BRIDGE THROUGH 16Z...OR FOR CLOUDS TO IMPAIR VISUALS BETWEEN THE BRIDGE AND AIRPORT BUT CLEARING BY 16-17Z. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS FOR MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS THROUGH 17Z...WITH SOME CONCERN THEY COULD LINGER LONGER FOR KMRY. IF ANYTHING WITH NW WINDS CLOUDS WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE AIRPORT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. && .CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 15-16 ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED. SF BAY AREA .LOCATION................ SAT 15 SUN 16 KENTFIELD............... 85/2004 86/2004 SAN RAFAEL.............. 83/1972 87/1972 NAPA.................... 86/2004 88/2004 SAN FRANCISCO........... 82/2004 85/1914 SFO AIRPORT............. 81/2004 82/2004 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)...... 85/2004 85/2004 OAKLAND AIRPORT......... 83/2004 83/2004 RICHMOND................ 85/2004 84/1972 LIVERMORE............... 83/1972 88/1972 MOFFETT FIELD........... 83/2004 84/2004 SAN JOSE................ 84/2004 85/2004 GILROY.................. 84/1994 85/2004 MONTEREY BAY AREA .LOCATION................ SAT 15 SUN 16 MONTEREY................ 81/2004 84/1978 SANTA CRUZ.............. 83/1926 86/1914 SALINAS................. 85/1972 87/2004 SALINAS AIRPORT......... 83/1972 87/2004 KING CITY............... 90/2007 91/2007 && .MARINE...AS OF 5 AM FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE OCEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY FOR NW WINDS. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE BUILDING NW SWELL LATER SUNDAY. WAVE MODELS SHOWING SEAS UP TO 13 FEET WITH LONG PERIODS AROUND 18 SECONDS. WITH SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER FORECAST SUNDAY WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT ON SUNDAY FOR POSSIBLE RIPS IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/BLIER AVIATION: RWW MARINE: RWW CLIMATE: SA/MM VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  FXUS66 KMTR 141143 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 443 AM PDT FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...AFTER A BIT OF COOLING TODAY...A WARM AND DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY INTO THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THESE DATES. THIS WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN ALOFT THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT THEN WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE OUTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:10 AM PDT FRIDAY...THE DRY TAIL END OF A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS APPROACHING OUR DISTRICT...AND RESULTING IN ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER AND A RETURN OF THE MARINE STRATUS. LATEST GOES FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY...AND IN RATHER SPECTACULAR DETAIL JUST REC'D SUOMI VIIRS NIGHTTIME HIGH RES VISUAL IMAGE...SHOW COVERAGE ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST FROM PT REYES SOUTH TO THE VICINITY OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA...AND A BROAD SWATH EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS SAN FRANCISCO AND THROUGH THE GOLDEN GATE TO THE EAST BAY. LATEST BODEGA BAY AND FT ORD PROFILER DATA INDICATE A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF ABOUT 1300 FT. SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO PASSING THROUGH ABOVE. NAM MODEL AND IN-HOUSE LOCAL WRF MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER RH OUTPUT BOTH INDICATE STRATUS SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR BY MIDDAY...EXCEPT ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGS COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ESPECIALLY INLAND. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH WARMING OF TEMPS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE...ALBEIT RATHER WEAKLY. THE NET RESULT FOR US WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS...ESP AWAY FROM THE COAST. THAT SAID...MODEL TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN MILDLY IN THE DIRECTION OF NOT QUITE AS MUCH WARMING ALOFT AND A BIT LESS BY WAY OF OFFSHORE FLOW. ECMWF OUTPUT FROM A FEW DAYS AGO WAS PROJECTING 850 MB TEMPS OVER THE HEART OF THE BAY AREA WOULD REACH UP TO 16C AT THE HEIGHT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WARMING...BUT NOW CONFINED TO THE 14C TO 14.5C RANGE. AND SIMILARLY WITH SURFACE TROUGHING SHIFTED JUST A BIT MORE INLAND...AND SO A BIT LESS BY WAY OF OFFSHORE ORIENTED FLOW. DOESN'T CHANGE THE BASIC PICTURE THAT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL REACH TO WELL-ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS...ESPECIALLY INLAND...BUT CHANCES OF GETTING UP TO RECORD LEVELS HAS DIMINSHED A BIT. ALSO NOT AS MUCH OF A WARM-UP NEAR THE COAST AS HAD BEEN THINKING A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. IN THE SUNDAY EVENING TIME FRAME...MODELS PROJECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT INLAND AS ANOTHER...AND A BIT STRONGER...WEATHER SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES AND MOVES IN TO THE PACIFIC NW. AGAIN NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA...BUT IT WILL RESULT IN BOTH SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AND A QUICK RETURN TO MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STRATUS LOOKS TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING...AND DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH STILL GENERALLY REMAIN SEVERAL DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. FOR DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO FOR EXAMPLE...PRESENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A HIGH OF 72 ON SUNDAY COOLING TO 67 ON MONDAY...BUT THAT'S STILL 5 DEGS ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM FOR THE DATE OF 62. THEREAFTER NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK...BUT THEN RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO AT LEAST MORE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR DISTRICT AS LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND RESULTS IN THE STORM TRACK SHIFTING A BIT SOUTHWARD. WE'LL STILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE SOME PRECIP. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:57 PM PDT THURSDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND AROUND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. MOST LIKELY AIRPORT TO GET CIGS WILL BE MONTEREY BUT FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE OCEAN MAY KEEP STRATUS SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SUNRISE SURPRISE FOR KSFO BUT ANY MORNING CIGS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR FORECAST WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST BUT INVERSION DEPTH SUGGESTS NO CIGS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FEEL THAT SHOULD ANY STRATUS PUSH THROUGH THE GAP IT WOULD BE FICKLE AND BURN EARLY...BEFORE 16Z. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...LOW CLOUDS NOW FORMING OVER MONTEREY PENINSULA AND KMRY WILL LIKELY GET SOME PERIODS OF CIGS AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET OVERNIGHT. STILL FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ANY CIGS WILL BURN QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AND WILL SHOW SUCH IN TAF. && .CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 15-16 ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT DATE IT OCCURRED. SF BAY AREA .LOCATION................ SAT 15 SUN 16 KENTFIELD............... 85/2004 86/2004 SAN RAFAEL.............. 83/1972 87/1972 NAPA.................... 86/2004 88/2004 SAN FRANCISCO........... 82/2004 85/1914 SFO AIRPORT............. 81/2004 82/2004 OAKLAND (DOWNTOWN)...... 85/2004 85/2004 OAKLAND AIRPORT......... 83/2004 83/2004 RICHMOND................ 85/2004 84/1972 LIVERMORE............... 83/1972 88/1972 MOFFETT FIELD........... 83/2004 84/2004 SAN JOSE................ 84/2004 85/2004 GILROY.................. 84/1994 85/2004 MONTEREY BAY AREA .LOCATION................ SAT 15 SUN 16 MONTEREY................ 81/2004 84/1978 SANTA CRUZ.............. 83/1926 86/1914 SALINAS................. 85/1972 87/2004 SALINAS AIRPORT......... 83/1972 87/2004 KING CITY............... 90/2007 91/2007 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 1 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BLIER AVIATION: RWW MARINE: RWW CLIMATE: SA/MM VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  FXUS65 KCYS 081159 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 459 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014 TODAY WILL SEE A WELCOME BREAK IN THE RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW AND RAIN YESTERDAY DIVES SOUTHWARD...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. FOG HAS SETTLED IN MAINLY FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE FROM PINE BLUFFS TO SIDNEY...AND UP NEAR ALLIANCE. A LOOK AT AREA SFC OBS SHOWS A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD ADVECT THE FOG ESE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA TODAY WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOS COLUMN WILL WARM TODAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD LLVL MIXING ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...MAX TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AVERAGING ABOUT 5 TO 10F HIGHER...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS IN THE PANHANDLE. A STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A THERMAL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. MOS GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...AND THINK THAT WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT FROM WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD FAVOR THE WARMER GUIDANCE. SO...MAINTAINED THE TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH 50S IN THE WEST. REGARDING THE WINDS...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS PRESSURE FALLS DEEPEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE PATTERN IS NOT INCREDIBLY FAVORABLE FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT AS THE DEEPEST PRESSURE FALLS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR TO THE EAST TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL EFFECT ON THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH THAT SAID...THE WRKHGT PRODUCT SHOWS THE LLVL GRADIENT INCREASING TO AROUND 60 DAM DURING THE TIME OF STRONGEST WAA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH LOOKS TO DEVELOP A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND MOUNTAIN TOP. THIS SETUP WILL NO DOUBT BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WIND PRONE REGIONS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 SUNDAY MORNING...BUT 700 MB WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO JUST AROUND 50 KTS AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL BE LACKING OVERALL...SO NOT THINKING WINDS WILL BECOME ALL THAT STRONG TO WARRANT A HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME. HAVE SUSTAINED 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH FOR NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LEESIDE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD WITHIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC AND HOW THIS WAVE WILL IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MONDAY: LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED VORT LOBE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER FAIRLY NICE DAY SETTING UP FOR MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AND MORE CLOUD COVER THAN SUNDAY. STANDARDIZED 700MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS ARE SHOWING STANDARD DEVIATION VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 WHICH WILL ALLOW US TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WE WOULD NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH RECORD VALUES. WE DID BACK OFF ON HIGHS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME NEGATIVE TILT ALONG WITH A DIGGING JET. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: THE ECMWF/GEM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE AND SHOWS THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE FORCING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL ALL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT WHERE THE JET ENERGY FOCUSES AT. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS DUE BRING SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREADING SOUTH ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME...SINCE THERE IS LIMITED FRONTOGENISIS...BUT THERE IS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ALONG WITH THE SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR A SHORT TIME PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA AND BEFORE 18Z IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. NOT EXPECTING A BIG WARM UP AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THIS SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT A LITTLE SOONER THINGS MAY WARM UP A BIT QUICKER. FOR NOW...WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WHICH COULD SPELL 50S FOR AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH 40S TO THE WEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 457 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014 LATEST FOG IMAGERY WAS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY FROM SCOTTSBLUFF SOUTHEAST TOWARDS SIDNEY. MICROPHYSICS FROM THE VIIRS IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF A WELL DEFINED BAND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG STRETCHING FROM DIA TO ALLIANCE TERMINAL. CURRENTLY...ALLIANCE IS RECEIVING SOME FOG AS WELL. SURFACE FLOW IS FAIRLY LIGHT AT SCOTTSBLUFF WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATION THAT A FAIRLY GOOD INVERSION IS TAKING SHAPE. MEANWHILE...SIDNEY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD HELP ERODE THE FOG BY AROUND 15Z OR SO. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE FOG ERODING AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL. NOT REAL CONFIDENT ABOUT SCOTTSBLUFF ERODING THAT SOON...BUT IF THE SUN CAN PENETRATE THE STRATUS DECK IT MAY BE ABLE TO ERODE BY MID MORNING. AFTER THE FOG ERODES WE SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 445 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014 DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LESS WIND IN THE PANHANDLE. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 60 DEGREE READINGS AND A FEW 70S LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. FURTHER WEST...HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL COINCIDE WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING 25 PERCENT OR HIGHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJM LONG TERM...REC AVIATION...REC FIRE WEATHER...RJM  FXAK69 PAFG 071051 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 151 AM AKST FRI MAR 7 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR TERM LATELY...AND THIS CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO THIS RUN. BECOMES PRETTY MUDDLED AS TIME GOES ON SO WILL USE THE MEAN BEYOND THAT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK TROUGH RUNNING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. 516 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA HAS MOVES TO OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE IN THE HIGH ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. 504 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WORKS SOUTHWEST OVER TANANA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE UPPER NOATAK EARLY MONDAY MORNING CONTINUING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PUSHES 522 HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY MORNING MOVES OVER COLD BAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...AS UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC IT BRINGS SOME COLD AIR WITH IT AND THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE YUKON TERRITORY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE STATE. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN WILL PERSIST. 976MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SOUTH OF YAKUTAT ON SATURDAY MORNING THEN PINBALL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 980MB LOW NEAR 40N 180 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 250NM SOUTH OF KODIAK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO COOK INLET AT 980MB BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND CAUSING HAVOC WITH THE TAFS. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS...SHOWS UP ON THE 1347Z NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT...THAT MAY DROPS SOUTH ALSO...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ITS PROGRESSION SOUTH. IF IT DOES MARCH SOUTH...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND THE STRATUS WILL HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. 07/0814Z MODIS 11 UM BT SHOWS SOME STRATUS IN THE LOWER YUKON. EXPECT FLURRIES IN THE LOWER YUKON TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DIURNAL RANGES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS BUT AT TIMES MAY KICK UP AROUND 20 MPH AS THE GRADIENT SQUEEZES A LITTLE. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW AT VALLEY LEVEL FOR MOST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. NORTH WINDS PERSISTING AND MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY NEAR ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGE PASSES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 242120 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1220 PM AKST MON FEB 24 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND INITIALIZATION AGAIN TODAY. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WEST COAST TONIGHT SIMILARLY. THEY HAVE HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO HANDLE ITS EVOLUTION IN SIMILAR FASHION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA... A 558 DAM CLOSED HIGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE YUKON TERRITORY TONIGHT AND BE ABSORBED BY THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH FROM NEVADA OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. ANOTHER CLOSED HIGH WILL CUT OFF FROM THE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE ALCAN BORDER OVER NEAR EAGLE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WEST FACE OF THE RIDGE IS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE IN THE FLOW UP THE WEST COAST...BUT TIMING OF THEM WILL BE DIFFICULT. AT 850 HPA...NO SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT...HOWEVER AS THE WEEK GOES ON WE WILL SEE THE ZERO CELSIUS ISOTHERM PUSH NORTH TO THE ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE...NO CHANGE IN THE BIG PICTURE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MAINLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA. LEE SIDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE BROOKS AND ALASKA RANGES STRENGTHEN TODAY. A 1002MB LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND NULATO HILLS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE COAST OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING AND TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY THEN REBUILD WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WHICH MAY COME IN THE FREEZING LIQUID FORM. ARCTIC COAST...QUIET TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND AND EAST WINDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS. SYSTEM MOVING UP THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BRING SOME ISSUE TO THE AREA WEST OF BARROW AND PUSH THE TROUGHING OVER THE AREA OFFSHORE. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR A FEW HOURS WEST OF BARROW. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE...BUT EASTERLY RETURNS TO THE COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LEE SIDE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. NPP VIIRS ONLY SHOWING STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY AND IT IS WELL OFFSHORE. STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG FLOATING AROUND THE AREA IN THE MORNINGS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WAVE ALONG THE OLD OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING NORTH TONIGHT WILL BRING SNOW TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE UP THE WEST COAST EVENTUALLY EXITING THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW WITH THIS WAVE...AND ONLY A COUPLE INCHES AT MOST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA AND NOT EXPECTING THAT TO CHANGE. WINDS WILL KICK UP A LITTLE AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH BUT EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS TO BE GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. LOCALLY BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS THE WEEK GOES ON SO NEXT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH IT. NOT SURE OF AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES. THE FRONT HANGS AROUND THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEK SO EXPECT THESE SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION TO REPEAT OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND KOBUK VALLEY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY PERSIST. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE WEEK. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THE WEAK SOUTHEAST CHINOOK FLOW BRINGING WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES. LARGE DIURNAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR WITH SHARP INVERSIONS DEVELOPING AT NIGHT. NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT NOT SHOWING ANYTHING OVER THE INTERIOR AT 24/1335Z. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 14  FXAK69 PAFG 232115 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1215 PM AKST SUN FEB 23 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZE WELL WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE UP THE WEST COAST BUT MOSTLY TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE HANDLING OF THE RIDGE AND ITS EVOLUTION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA... A 558 DAM CLOSED HIGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE YUKON TERRITORY THROUGH MONDAY THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 498 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL DRIFT NORTHWEST TOWARD NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA THEN BE ABSORBED BY A STRENGTHENING 492 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT SWINGS OUT OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSK TO BE OVER SHEMYA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. A 513 DAM CLOSED LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF ADAK THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ABSORBED BY A 524 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SAND POINT TONIGHT THEN MOVES NORTH IN FLOW UP THE WEST COAST TO BE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTON SOUND AND THE LOWER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO THE ARCTIC COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL TRAIN UP THE WEST COAST...BUT TIMING OF THEM WILL BE DIFFICULT. AT 850 HPA...THE BALL OF ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS AIR THAT PUSHED UP THE WEST COAST LAST EVENING WILL BE EXITING THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHEAST INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS. ON THE WEST COAST WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN ALL PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE FROZEN. SURFACE...A 971 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 58N AND 170E WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES OVER THE BERING STRAIT...ACROSS EASTERN NORTON SOUND...THE SOUTHERN NULATO HILLS...THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...TO KODIAK ISLAND. TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING. A 991 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH NEAR SAND POINT WILL MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS THEN CONTINUE NORTH UP THE COAST AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES THOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN AT TIMES. THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC PLANE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WEST OVER THE AREA. ARCTIC COAST...REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THAT BROUGHT SOME SNOW AND WINDS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING IS PUSHING OFFSHORE TO EXPECT A RETURN TO SEMI BENIGN WEATHER UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE WEST COAST TUESDAY. THOUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. PATCHY STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT SLICE AT 1533Z IS MAINLY WEST OF THE PIPELINE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FROZEN SORT...EVEN WITH THE NEXT WAVE THAT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE BERING STRAIT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL HELP TO KEEP IT ALL SNOW. WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS STRATUS AND FOG STRETCHING UP THE WEST COAST OVER NORTHERN Z212...EASTERN NORTON SOUND...EASTERN Z210...EASTERN KOTZEBUE SOUND...Z209...Z208...WESTERN Z217...AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE IN Z205. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THE WEAK SOUTHEAST CHINOOK FLOW. LARGE DIURNAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE INTERIOR WITH SHARP INVERSIONS DEVELOPING AT NIGHT. NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT NOT SHOWING ANYTHING OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE SLICE AVAILABLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ214. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 14  FXAK69 PAFG 212244 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 144 PM AKST FRI FEB 21 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES AND THEY INITIALIZE WELL. SIMILARITY IN MODELS CONTINUES OUT TO AROUND 48 HOURS WHEN THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WEST COAST. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE WEST COAST AND THE HIGH THAT WAS OVER SIBERIA HAS MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WILL MERGE WITH THE RIDGE TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TO BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH A 557 DAM CENTER OVER FORT YUKON. A WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WEST FACE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA LATE TONIGHT...NORTON SOUND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE BERING STRAIT BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST OVER CHUKOTKA. MODERATE SOUTH FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AS SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM PUSHES NORTH OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND OVER EASTERN NORTON SOUND SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING NORTH TO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE...FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA MOVES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS EVENING...TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...TO THE BERING STRAIT SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRAGS UP THE WEST COAST AS IT EXTENDS FROM WRANGEL ISLAND TO POINT LAY TO KOTZEBUE TO ST MARYS THEN SOUTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY FROM WRANGEL ISLAND TO TIN CITY TO BETHEL AND EXTEND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THE FRONT BACK ONSHORE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FROM THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EAST AND NORTH. CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO ALASKA RANGE PASSES. LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTH SLOPE...PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT...STRATUS ON THE NPP VIIRS APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING OFFSHORE AND ERODING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS. PREDOMINANT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SWITCH TO EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE COAST AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS. CHANCE OF SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WEST OF POINT LAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS THE FLOW CHANGES AND THE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER THE INTERIOR. WESTERN ALASKA...SNOW SPREADING NORTH OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS EVENING CONTINUING NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. FREEZING RAIN WILL FOLLOW OVERNIGHT AS THE ZERO ISOTHERM AT 850 HPA PUSHES NORTH. WILL ISSUE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR Z207 Z208 Z209 AND Z210 BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST. BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE PROBLEMS ACROSS THE AREA TO VARYING DEGREES. INTERIOR...STRATUS OVER THE FORTYMILE IS DRIFTING EAST AND ERODING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BUT EXPECT BIG DIURNAL RANGES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING. EXPECT SOME WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE PARKS HIGHWAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ICE STORM WARNING FOR AKZ215. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ212-AKZ214. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ211. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215. && $$ SDB FEB 14  FXAK69 PAFG 202247 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 147 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE NEAR TERM. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE BUILDING BLOCKING HIGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOT DOING SO WELL WITH THE SHORTWAVES THAT MOVES UP THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...505 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEAST AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY WITH A 537 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA NEAR 66N 162E MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN MERGING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A CLOSED HIGH WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY WITH A 558 DAM CENTER. A 518 DAM LOW CENTER 600NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE OVER ATKA ISLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT...TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST. SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN ANCHOR OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO ATKA ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 974MB...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT STRENGTHENS TO 964MB...MOVING TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 970MB. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING...TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO DRAG UP THE COAST INTO SATURDAY AS IT STALLS ALONG THE COAST FROM POINT HOPE EXTENDING SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OVER CHUKOTKA. A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY AS CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN RANGE. ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. BIG PATCH OF STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS YESTERDAY...THAT WAS SHOWING UP ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS UP WELL AGAIN TODAY...HAS MOVED SOUTH TO THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRATUS WILL MOVE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND WILL HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT...SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARM UP FOR THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE COMMUNITIES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION IT TO START OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGE TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH FRIDAY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL CREATE NEAR WINTER STORM CONDITIONS...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR Z211...Z212...Z213 AND Z214. A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG SEEN IN THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT IS ERODING...BUT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH STRATUS AND FLURRIES. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT MOVE TO THE WEST OUT OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GEOCAT MODIS SHOWS SOME IFR AND LIFR BUT IT IS OFFSHORE AROUND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. INTERIOR...PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND AS IT SLOWLY ERODES. THE GEOCAT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS NO AREAS OF LIFR OR IFR IN THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT COOLING AND DAYTIME WARMING. CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS NEAR PASSES BUT NOT TO WARNING LEVELS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB FEB 14  FXAK69 PAFG 192228 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 128 PM AKST WED FEB 19 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZE WELL. GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS BETWEEN THE MODELS AT 500 HPA. AT THE SURFACE GOOD CONSISTENCY OUT TO AROUND 54 HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE SIMILAR THOUGH NAM IS GENERATING SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...501 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER ILIAMNA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 513 DAM...THEN CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH FROM A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS RIDGING FROM A 537 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA NEAR 66N 165E EARLY FRIDAY PUSHES SOUTHEAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE EAST TO OVER POINT HOPE BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN OVER EAGLE AT 546 HPA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE RIDGE. WEAK TROUGH WILL LIE EAST TO WEST OVER THE INTERIOR BEFORE BEING PUSHED OUT BY THE HIGH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST LATE FRIDAY. SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR INTO SATURDAY. 995MB LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE TOSOUTHEAST ALASKA BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OUT FROM A 979MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADAK TO COVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 972MB. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE EARLY SATURDAY AS WEAK CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS. ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT STRATUS SHOWING UP NEAR THE COAST ON THE VIIRS FOG PRODUCT AT 1649Z BUT THERE IS A SMALL PATCH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND CAPE LISBURNE IS CARRYING SOME FLURRIES. THERE IS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS AND FOG LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE THAT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST FEW PASSES AND MAY IMPACT THE NORTHWEST COAST ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURE SHOW A SLOW WARM UP FOR THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE COMMUNITIES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG CAN BE SEEN IN THE VIIRS STRETCHING FROM POINT LAY THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT SOUTH OVER ST LAWRENCE AND ST MATTHEW ISLANDS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH OVER SIBERIA MOVES EAST AND THE LOW SOUTH OF ADAK MOVE NORTH INTO THE BERING SEA. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COAST. A BAND OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE LOWER YUKON CAN BE SEEN ON THE VIIRS PRODUCT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING PUSHING NORTH TO COVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTH WITH THE FRONT LYING OVER THE WEST COAST FROM POINT HOPE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE SNOW...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR IT TO CHANGE TO LIQUID SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA SATURDAY AS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND ZERO CELSIUS. INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS IN THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY ON THE VIIRS LOOK TO BE ERODING BUT EXPECT SOME MORE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT COOLING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT EXPECT GOOD RECOVERY AS THE DAYS GET LONGER AND THE SUN HAS MORE OF AN EFFECT. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB FEB 14  FXAK69 PAFG 292131 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1231 PM AKST WED JAN 29 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT 500HPA...THOUGH THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES VARIES. WILL USE A BLEND TO SMOOTH SOME OF THE ISSUES OUT. AT THE SURFACE MODELS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE NAM AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 532 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH EAST TO OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. 555 DAM CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTH TO OVER BURWASH LANDING YT BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 553 DAM..THEN CONTINUE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BRANCH OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND BEHIND THE TROUGH. A 553 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER COLD BAY BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 532 DAM...THEN FILLS AND MOVES OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS A TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTH. A 522 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRIDAY MORNING MOVING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...LAST VESTIGES OF THE BALL OF ABOVE ZERO AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING. GRADUAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WHICH WILL SEE SOME AROUND ZERO TEMPERATURES AS EACH OF THE WEATHER FRONTS MOVE ONSHORE. SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. 1012MB LOW JUST NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE INTERIOR. PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REORIENT AND BUILD OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WITH A LOW UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH AND MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY MONDAY LOOK FOR A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. ARCTIC COAST...COOLING TREND AS WARM AIR ALOFT MOVES OFFSHORE. WINDS DROPPING OFF THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG AND STRATUS TO GO AWAY SO WILL STILL BE CHASING IT AROUND ON THE ARCTIC COAST. OVER THE BROOKS RANGE LOOK FOR LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OCCLUDED FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST THIS EVENING AS IT SLIPS NORTH. EXPECT A LITTLE MIXED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AS A BALL OF WARM AIR PUSHES TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA ALONG THE COAST. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHICH SHOULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEY MAY GET A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN TO START TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND LOWER YUKON DELTA TONIGHT AS THEY PICK UP WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. INTERIOR...CONTINUED COOLING TONIGHT. CLOUDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...MAYBE EVEN A FLURRY. AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WHICH ARE CLEARLY SEEN ON THE VIIRS FOG PRODUCT FROM 15Z THIS MORNING IN ZONE 220...224...AND 226 WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...AND MAY GET KICKED OUT AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS NEAR PASSES DIMINISHING TONIGHT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB JAN 14  FXUS66 KMFR 221652 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 852 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO EASTERN OREGON AND IDAHO. THEN ON THURSDAY THE STRONG RIDGE PERSISTS TO THE NORTH WITH AN UPPER LOW SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BRING CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN THE VALLEYS EXPECT A DECREASE IN FOG BY THURSDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE ROSEBURG AND GRANTS PASS AREAS. ON THE RIDGES, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR. UPDATED THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY OF FOG AND SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA. && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 22/12Z TAF CYCLE. FOG IS PRESENT THROUGH MANY OF THE VALLEYS IN SW OREGON AND WILL AFFECT KRBG AND KMFR WITH IFR TO LIFR VIS AND CIGS THIS MORNING. THIS FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TO AT LEAST MVFR IN ALL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER ZONE. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014/ DISCUSSION...MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY VIA NASA/SPORT REVEALS PRETTY MUCH THE STATUS QUO THIS MORNING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S SATELLITE IMAGE AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME, IT APPEARS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE...JUST PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES (NPWMFR) ARE UP FOR THE UMPQUA/ROGUE VALLEYS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. MOST AREAS BROKE OUT YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GRANTS PASS. EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS HIGHER IN MEDFORD...UP INTO THE LOW 50S...WHILE KEEPING GRANTS PASS DOWN CLOSER TO THE MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT, SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WEST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND EXPECTED MIXING, HAVE DECIDED TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY EAST OF THE CASCADES A BIT SOONER...THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE TO MIX OUT THE INVERSION, SO HAVE CONTINUED THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY THERE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR RE- ISSUED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE FLOW EASES. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS APPEAR WEAK. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST ON THE COAST. SPILDE FIRE WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TODAY INCREASING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PEAKING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO TWO STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MID SLOPE AND RIDGE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN CHANNELED AREAS. IT HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SINCE OCTOBER AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY FUELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH RH RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH (RFWMFR) DETAILS THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ029>031. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORZ615>617-619>624. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023-024-026. CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ280>282-284. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ370. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ376. $$ CC  FXUS66 KMFR 221145 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 345 AM PST WED JAN 22 2014 .DISCUSSION...MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY VIA NASA/SPORT REVEALS PRETTY MUCH THE STATUS QUO THIS MORNING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S SATELLITE IMAGE AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME, IT APPEARS NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE...JUST PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SHALLOWER FOG IN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE VALLEY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES (NPWMFR) ARE UP FOR THE UMPQUA/ROGUE VALLEYS UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO BE SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. MOST AREAS BROKE OUT YESTERDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GRANTS PASS. EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO TODAY. AS A RESULT, HAVE NUDGED MAX TEMPS HIGHER IN MEDFORD...UP INTO THE LOW 50S...WHILE KEEPING GRANTS PASS DOWN CLOSER TO THE MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY BRINGING SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES. THOSE AREAS SHOULD HAVE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONG RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SHORT WAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OFFSHORE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM HAS VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE WITH IT, SO WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES WEST. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND EXPECTED MIXING, HAVE DECIDED TO END THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY EAST OF THE CASCADES A BIT SOONER...THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE TO MIX OUT THE INVERSION, SO HAVE CONTINUED THE AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY THERE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR RE- ISSUED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE FLOW EASES. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS APPEAR WEAK. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST ON THE COAST. SPILDE && .AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS REMAINS LOCKED IN ALONG THE NORTH COAST FROM ABOUT BANDON NORTHWARD. INLAND...FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE IN NEARLY IDENTICAL LOCATIONS THAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND COASTAL VALLEYS. LIFR/IFR CIG AND VIS WILL IMPACT KMFR AND KRBG THROUGH THE MORNING BUT SHOULD BURN OFF TO AT LEAST MVFR IN ALL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. -WRIGHT/SPILDE && .MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL BUILDS TONIGHT...SUBSIDE LATE WEDNESDAY...AND BUILD AGAIN LATE THURSDAY. BEHIND A VERY WEAK FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER ZONE. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE SOUTH AT MAINLY LIGHT SPEEDS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT NO MAJOR STORMS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SK && .FIRE WEATHER...A SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TODAY INCREASING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN PEAKING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO TWO STRONG SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES TRACKING SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WHILE THE SECOND TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRAJECTORY THROUGH OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TO MOVE WESTWARD DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE IN THE BROAD EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONG WEST-EAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MID SLOPE AND RIDGE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN CHANNELED AREAS. IT HAS BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SINCE OCTOBER AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY FUELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH RH RECOVERIES ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH (RFWMFR) DETAILS THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR ORZ029>031. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORZ615>617-619>624. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023-024-026. CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CAZ280>282-284. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376. $$ MAS/TRW/FJB/SK  FXUS66 KMFR 211635 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 835 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT, SOUTH WINDS OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST HAVE BROUGHT A SURGE OF LOW STRATUS TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. INLAND, MORNING VALLEY FOG IS PRESENT IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH LIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO PRESENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS IN DOUGLAS, JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 10 AM PST THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST WITH VALLEY FOG REDEVELOPING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 21/12Z TAF CYCLE. A SURGE OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOVED UP THE COAST TO AROUND FLORENCE OREGON WITH KOTH HAVING COME BELOW IFR EARLIER THIS MORNING. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS PREVAIL IN THE STRATUS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...APPLEGATE AND ROGUE VALLEYS AS WELL...INCLUDING KRBG AND KMFR. EXPECT ALL THESE AREAS TO CLEAR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE. THEN EXPECT THE LOWER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE SAME WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE COAST THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .MARINE...LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RECENTER INLAND OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TODAY CONTINUING THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TONIGHT. THE RETURN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. /FB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014/ SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING'S SPORT MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR TALENT AND ASHLAND. BUT, ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THE SURGE OF FOG/STRATUS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 130 W AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF IT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z KMFR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MOIST LAYER DEPTH AT ABOUT 1000FT WITH RAPID DRYING ABOVE ABOUT 945MB. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS A TAD EARLIER BREAK OUT TIMES. THE DEEPER "BOWLS" LIKE GRANTS PASS MAY TAKE THE LONGEST. IT APPEARS THICKEST THERE CURRENTLY. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD AGAIN. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP BY TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT THAT'S ALL IT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 130 W. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES WITH RH RECOVERIES 30-35% IN SW OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RETROGRADE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT GOING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY NOT BE THAT NOTABLE IN A NORMAL YEAR, BUT SINCE WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY SO FAR THIS SEASON, THIS MAY RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RHS. BEYOND THAT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS WEEKEND AND WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. IT WON'T BE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WHERE A PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE BREAK THROUGH AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SPILDE CLIMATE...THE 3 PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE LAST WEEK, INDICATE A BREAK DOWN IN THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 10, JANUARY 28TH. MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE IN THIS TREND. A STRONG AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IN AND AROUND INDONESIA HAS BEEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY REFOCUSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST MJO INDICES. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM COMING OFF OF THE COAST OF ASIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEND FORTH ENOUGH ENHANCED JET STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO WEAKEN AND BUMP THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE, THEY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON RELATED DETAILS- PRIMARILY HOW FAST THIS BREAKDOWN OCCURS AND HOW FAST WE GET WET. THE CFS INDICATES THE WET PART WON'T BEGIN UNTIL THE WEEK THAT BEGINS FEBRUARY 2ND, WHEREAS THE FASTER OPERATIONAL ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A NOTABLE STORM ARRIVING ON THE 28TH OF JANUARY. BTL && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376. $$ CC  FXUS66 KMFR 211210 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 410 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING'S SPORT MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH LESS COVERAGE OF FOG THROUGH THE SOUTH END OF THE ROGUE VALLEY NEAR TALENT AND ASHLAND. BUT, ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IS THE SURGE OF FOG/STRATUS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS IS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 130 W AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF IT. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z KMFR SOUNDING INDICATED THE MOIST LAYER DEPTH AT ABOUT 1000FT WITH RAPID DRYING ABOVE ABOUT 945MB. OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, EXCEPT PERHAPS A TAD EARLIER BREAK OUT TIMES. THE DEEPER "BOWLS" LIKE GRANTS PASS MAY TAKE THE LONGEST. IT APPEARS THICKEST THERE CURRENTLY. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD AGAIN. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP BY TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OUT OF THIS FEATURE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT THAT'S ALL IT IS...A SLIGHT CHANCE. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD ALONG 130 W. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE 15-25 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES WITH RH RECOVERIES 30-35% IN SW OREGON AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND RETROGRADE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED SO PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY...BUT IT WILL KEEP THE OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT GOING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY NOT BE THAT NOTABLE IN A NORMAL YEAR, BUT SINCE WE HAVE BEEN VERY DRY SO FAR THIS SEASON, THIS MAY RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO THE WINDS AND LOW RHS. BEYOND THAT, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EASE THIS WEEKEND AND WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. IT WON'T BE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK WHERE A PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE BREAK THROUGH AND BRING SOME RAIN TO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SPILDE && .AVIATION...A SURGE OF FOG AND STRATUS HAS MOVED ONSHORE FROM CHARLESTON SOUTHWARD BUT REMAINS OFFSHORE NORTH OF COOS BAY. KOTH REMAINS VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT STRATUS MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS PREVAIL IN THE STRATUS. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE UMPQUA...ILLINOIS...AND ROGUE VALLEYS AS WELL...INCLUDING KRBG AND KMFR. EXPECT ALL THESE AREAS TO CLEAR TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT UNDER THE STRATUS OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE LOWER CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE SAME WEST SIDE VALLEYS ALONG WITH THE ENTIRE COAST TUESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. STOCKTON && .MARINE...ANOTHER ROUND OF LONG PERIOD MODERATE WEST SWELL IS NOW PEAKING AND WILL SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INTERIOR BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL RECENTER INLAND OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL BRUSH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RETURN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO STRONGER NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND. BTL/STOCKTON && .CLIMATE...THE 3 PRIMARY OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW, FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE LAST WEEK, INDICATE A BREAK DOWN IN THE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AROUND DAY 10, JANUARY 28TH. MODELS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONSISTENT IN TRENDING IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AND THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE IN THIS TREND. A STRONG AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION IN AND AROUND INDONESIA HAS BEEN PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY REFOCUSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED IN FORECAST MJO INDICES. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A DIP IN THE JET STREAM COMING OFF OF THE COAST OF ASIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEND FORTH ENOUGH ENHANCED JET STREAM ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO WEAKEN AND BUMP THE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WHILE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO INDICATE A BREAKDOWN IN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE, THEY DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON RELATED DETAILS- PRIMARILY HOW FAST THIS BREAKDOWN OCCURS AND HOW FAST WE GET WET. THE CFS INDICATES THE WET PART WON'T BEGIN UNTIL THE WEEK THAT BEGINS FEBRUARY 2ND, WHEREAS THE FASTER OPERATIONAL ECMWF MODEL INDICATES A NOTABLE STORM ARRIVING ON THE 28TH OF JANUARY. BTL && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-023. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ023-024-026. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376. $$ MAS/JRS/BTL/FJB  FXUS66 KMFR 291657 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 857 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013 .DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS THE MOISTURE LAYER AROUND 1700 FEET WITH RAPID DRYING ABOVE THAT. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE LOW. THE FOG IN THE ROGUE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LIFT TO A LOW OVERCAST BRIEFLY BEFORE FOG RETURNS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT FOR US. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER. -PETRUCELLI && .AVIATION...BASED ON THE 29/12Z TAF CYCLE A PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BRINGING INLAND VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG WEST OF THE CASCADES. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND ROGUE VALLEYS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FOG MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CIGS MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY, BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AND ALSO SLOWEST TO IMPROVE THE ROGUE VALLEY. ANY IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR MAY ONLY BE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FOG RETURNS EARLY THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD VALLEY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES RETURNS IN FOR FOR THESE AREAS ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WHICH INCLUDES THE COAST, SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE AREA EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013/ DISCUSSION...HI RESOLUTION SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICRO-PHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUD LAYER IS MORE STRATUS THAN FOG NEAR ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE ENCOUNTERED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SURROUNDING ROSEBURG...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAMAS MOUNTAIN AND ALSO THE PASSES SOUTH OF THE CITY NEAR CANYONVILLE. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE MAINTAINED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. A SHALLOWER MOIST LAYER IS EVIDENT IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG FROM GRANTS PASS TO MEDFORD. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE SOUTH ENDS OF BOTH THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ROGUE VALLEY HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS EARLY HOUR IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THE RIDGE AT ITS STRONGEST TODAY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXING OUT OF THE MOIST LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO WE'LL REMAIN COLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HERE IN MEDFORD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. ASHLAND THOUGH SHOULD GET SOME SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY TO WARM INTO THE 40S. MEANWHILE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES AROUND THE AREA. THE BROOKINGS EFFECT WILL BE IN FULL FORCE TODAY AND IS ALREADY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 3AM! MODEL 975 TEMPS ARE INDICATING AROUND 17C THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS THERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON MONDAY. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL NO APPRECIABLE MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG. SO, EXPECT ANOTHER DISMAL DAY AROUND MEDFORD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE SURROUNDING HILLS. IT WILL ALSO BE A COOLER DAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND MORE MARINE AIR RETURNS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ZIP OFF TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT BEST WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IN COOS OR DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE MORE MIXING AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION TUESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG REMAINING IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, SO IT'LL BE DRY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THE RIDGE PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY, BUT ALL INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN WE'VE SEEN IN AWHILE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS A TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND OR IF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT REBUILDS OFFSHORE AGAIN. WE'LL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPILDE && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ023>026. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376. $$  FXUS66 KMFR 291200 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 400 AM PST SUN DEC 29 2013 .DISCUSSION...HI RESOLUTION SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICRO-PHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A DEEPER MOIST LAYER NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUD LAYER IS MORE STRATUS THAN FOG NEAR ROSEBURG THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT DENSE FOG WILL BE ENCOUNTERED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SURROUNDING ROSEBURG...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAMAS MOUNTAIN AND ALSO THE PASSES SOUTH OF THE CITY NEAR CANYONVILLE. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE MAINTAINED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH MID MORNING. A SHALLOWER MOIST LAYER IS EVIDENT IN THE ROGUE VALLEY WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS INDICATING WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG FROM GRANTS PASS TO MEDFORD. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS OUT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THE SOUTH ENDS OF BOTH THE ILLINOIS VALLEY AND ROGUE VALLEY HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS EARLY HOUR IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. WITH THE RIDGE AT ITS STRONGEST TODAY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MIXING OUT OF THE MOIST LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO WE'LL REMAIN COLD IN THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HERE IN MEDFORD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S. ASHLAND THOUGH SHOULD GET SOME SOUTHEAST WIND TODAY TO WARM INTO THE 40S. MEANWHILE, OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE MID SLOPES AND RIDGES AROUND THE AREA. THE BROOKINGS EFFECT WILL BE IN FULL FORCE TODAY AND IS ALREADY WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S AT 3AM! MODEL 975 TEMPS ARE INDICATING AROUND 17C THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS THERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AND THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON MONDAY. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL NO APPRECIABLE MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THESE LOW CLOUDS/FOG. SO, EXPECT ANOTHER DISMAL DAY AROUND MEDFORD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO THE SURROUNDING HILLS. IT WILL ALSO BE A COOLER DAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND MORE MARINE AIR RETURNS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ZIP OFF TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT BEST WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN IN COOS OR DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE MORE MIXING AND WEAKEN THE INVERSION TUESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE WITH CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG REMAINING IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED NEW YEARS EVE INTO NEW YEARS DAY, SO IT'LL BE DRY. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THE RIDGE PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY, BUT ALL INDICATE A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FRIDAY WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAN WE'VE SEEN IN AWHILE. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS A TREND TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND OR IF THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT REBUILDS OFFSHORE AGAIN. WE'LL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SPILDE && .AVIATION...A PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BRINGING INLAND VALLEY FOG AND FREEZING FOG WEST OF THE CASCADES. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND AREAS OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UMPQUA, ILLINOIS, APPLEGATE AND ROGUE VALLEYS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOG MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND CIGS MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE LOWEST AND ALSO SLOWEST TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. ANY IMPROVEMENT AT KMFR INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DUE TO FOG SEEDING. LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE WILL BE PARTIAL IMPROVEMENT. HOWEVER AREAS OF VALLEY IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA, ROGUE, ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS. THEN SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FOR FOR THESE AREAS ONCE AGAIN. ELSEWHERE...WHICH INCLUDES THE COAST, SISKIYOU COUNTY AND THE AREA EAST OF THE CASCADES...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CC && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ023>026. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ023. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ022. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR ORZ024-026. AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ029>031. CA...NONE. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ350-356. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376. $$ MAS/FJB/CC  FXAK69 PAFG 201351 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 451 AM AKST FRI DEC 20 2013 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE MOST PART THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE ARE MORE DETAILED DIFFERENCES IN THE NAM THAN THE GFS AND THE NAM APPEARS TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE WINDS AS IT HANDLES THIS SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...IN PARTICULARLY WITH THE LOW THAT MOVES FROM CHUKCHI COAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE AFTER THAT THERE ARE SOME LARGER DIFFERENCE WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WESTWARD TOWARDS BARROW WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE. NORTH SLOPE...MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE THE STRATUS AND FOG AS IT COMES AND GOES QUICKLY ACROSS MANY OF THE ARCTIC COAST SITES. COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AS WELL SEEN IN GOES IR IMAGERY...BUT THE STRATUS SEEN FAIRLY WELL WITH THE DAY NIGHT BAND ON THE VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE ON SATURDAY WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW HAS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THERE IS A WARM NOSE OF TEMPERATURES THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA TODAY WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY INCLUDING THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. FREEZING RAIN HAS ALREADY BEEN OCCURRING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT BETHEL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO 30 DEGREES. EXPECT THIS WARMER AIR TO PUSH NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH HAVE MENTIONED FREEZING RAIN WITHIN ZONES 216 SOUTH OF KALTAG...FEEL THAT THIS WILL MAINLY BE SNOW THE FURTHER NORTH EXTEND. ONLY ANTICIPATING THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. AS THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION PUSHES TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM POINT LAY TOWARDS AMBLER THE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS PUBLIC ZONES 217 AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONE 216 AND 219. HAVE ISSUED NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR 217 WITH 5 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED FOR TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY AND TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON SATURDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH WITH THE WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE LOW ON MONDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE TO ONE HALF INCHES EXPECTED. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216- AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ227. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ MAK DEC 13  FXUS64 KCRP 200443 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1043 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013 .DISCUSSION...SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AS ANTICIPATED PER METARS/SPORT HYBRID MODIS-VIIRS-GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. NAM DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 NM. SREF PROBABILITIES LOW WITH REGARD TO VSBYS BELOW 1 NM. LOCAL WRF-ARW DOES NOT LOWER VSBYS UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. THUS WL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSY. LOWER WIND OVER LAND OWING TO RECENT METARS/EXPECTED CONDITIONS WHEN CONSIDERING 0-1KM NAM LAPSE RATES. MAINTAINED SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE WHEN CONSIDERING SPORT SST COMPOSITE VALUES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE. AVIATION...NLLJ ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS OF AVIATION CONCERNS AS ITS STRENGTH INCREASES LLWS AND FOCUSES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CIG RESTRICTIONS RATHER THAN VIS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO OCNLY BECOME IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN SLOWLY LIFT AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER S CA AND NRN BAJA CA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGD TO MOV ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH FRI. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND CONTINUE TO USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX. EXPECTING A MIX OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W CWA WHERE THE LLJ IS NOT AS STRONG. AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH...IF ANY...DENSE FOG ACROSS S TX AS SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO KEEP THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MIXED. THAT BEING SAID...SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP TONIGHT AND COULD ADVECT INLAND AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE LLJ WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX TO THE SFC ON FRI...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW MUCH WEAKER LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE MIXING. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SPEEDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS LOWER THAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW THE LLJ SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE TX COAST AND OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS BUT WITH MUCH LESS MIXING...MAKING FOR A TRICKY WIND FCST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHCS TONIGHT OR FRI AS LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN A CAPPING INVERSION. KEPT 5-10 POPS WITH THE MENTION OF -SHRA'S FRI MORNING. RAIN CHCS THEN INCREASE FRI NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. KEPT THE 30 POP ACROSS THE NE BUT LOWERED TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. FEEL RAIN CHCS WILL BE EVEN LOWER FOR THE WESTERN CWA FRI NIGHT DUE TO LARGE CIN VALUES...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP ACROSS MEX AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AREA. THUS KEPT THE 20 FOR THE WEST AS WELL. HAVE INTRODUCED -TSRA FOR THE NE CWA FOR LATE FRI NIGHT DUE TO MODERATE CAPE...LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN/CAP...DEEPER MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RRQ OF APPROACHING JET. MARINE...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM MOD TO STRONG THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA'S FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING SEA FOG TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE REGION. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DUG DEEP TO THE SOUTH...INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LINED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...AS LOW LEVEL WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS SATURDAY MORNING... TAPERING OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. DESPITE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHWEST...HAVE NOT COMPLETELY REMOVED POPS OUT WEST IN THE MORNING...WITH THE THINKING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 135KT JET STREAK. DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE THESE PARAMETERS RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. FIRST DAY OF WINTER IS SATURDAY...AND WE MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPS AT CRP/LRD/VCT. MILD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND GLANCING BLOW OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WIND DROPS OFF INLAND TUESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...LEADING TO LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND. LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURNING CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE...AND WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 MPH. WITH FUELS NOW CURED FROM RECENT FREEZE AND FROST...THIS COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 79 68 83 52 / 10 10 20 30 0 VICTORIA 64 78 67 79 48 / 10 10 30 70 10 LAREDO 62 86 67 83 50 / 0 10 20 20 0 ALICE 64 84 68 85 51 / 10 10 20 20 0 ROCKPORT 65 73 68 78 51 / 10 10 30 50 10 COTULLA 58 82 64 79 46 / 0 10 20 30 0 KINGSVILLE 66 83 69 86 53 / 10 10 20 20 0 NAVY CORPUS 66 75 70 79 54 / 10 10 20 30 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  FXUS63 KOAX 170911 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 311 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013 .DISCUSSION... ...CHANCE FOR FREEZING PRECIP THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES... FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS ON MONDAY REACHED THE LOW 50S OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WITH 40S ELSEWHERE...AND THE MAIN CHANGE TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. 0830Z NPP VIIRS DAY-NIGHT BAND DOES A NICE JOB OF SHOWING THE REDUCED SNOW COVER FROM THE MELTING YESTERDAY. 08Z TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30...THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR SIMILAR HIGHS AS YESTERDAY BUT PERHAPS FALL SHORT 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE MONDAY HIGHS. TONIGHT A FAIRLY STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING 850 TEMPERATURES OF POSITIVE DOUBLE DIGITS WHICH IS QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AS WELL AS GOOD MIXING WITH 40+ 850 KNOT WINDS. RESULTING HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE QUITE MILD WITH FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA APPROACHING 60. THE WARM AIRMASS OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST CANADA. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN REACH THE KANSAS BORDER AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS MOST AREAS...LOW 20S SOUTH. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL GENERALLY BE SHALLOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A SUPERCOOLED FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP MAINLY THURSDAY. IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME GREAT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THURSDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE-BASED COLD LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL TO A POINT WHERE LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT AGAIN WE EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THIS MIGHT BE A CASE WHERE THE CLOUD LAYER IS SHALLOW ENOUGH TO SEE THE MOON THROUGH IT BUT FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FALLING FROM THE LOW AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW STRATO-CU DECK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE ARCTIC AIRMASS EAST. NIETFELD && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. CEILINGS FROM 5000 TO 10000 FEET SHOULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AT KOMA OR KOFK BUT CHANCES SEEMED SMALL ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TOWARD SUNRISE AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR THERE. OTHERWISE JUST LOOK FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 12 KNOTS. MILLER && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$  FXUS62 KCHS 060903 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 403 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 ...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TO PERSIST TODAY... .SYNOPSIS... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... THROUGH SUNRISE...HIGH CLOUDS AND 20-25 KT WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAVE KEPT FOG AND EVEN STRATUS AT BAY SO FAR THIS MORNING...DESPITE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH MAY SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16. ANOTHER CONCERN IS ALONG THE COAST WHERE PILOT BOAT...GOES-EAST CLOUD THICKNESS PRODUCTS AND A TIMELY NIGHT TIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE FROM THE POLAR ORBITING VIIRS PACKAGE INDICATE SEA FOG IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY ADVECT SOME OF THIS FOG ONSHORE...MAINLY FROM TYBEE ISLAND NORTHEAST ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ITS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEA FOG IS OFFSHORE WITH THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LITTLE DENSE SEA FOG AFFECT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IT WILL BE A WARM START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S INLAND. TODAY...UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STEADILY CARVE AWAY AT ITS WESTERN FLANK. AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA YIELDING ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PLACE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH AIRPORTS IN JEOPARDY. BEACH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER...STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 60S. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH LITTLE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. BEACH LOCATIONS COULD REMAIN A BIT HAZY/FOGGY THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONDITIONS FAVORING CONTINUED SEA FOG FORMATION WITHIN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH 25-30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL JETTING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY MIXED OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST PRE-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC ASSENT...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST-EAST AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES COULD BE APPROACHED OR BROKEN. SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DESCEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...EVENTUALLY STALLING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS IT RUNS INTO STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE PERIOD HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE COOLING QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. SUNDAY...THE INLAND WEDGE WILL BE STRONG...YET RATHER TRANSIENT...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SWIFTLY MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST...THEN PULL NORTHWARD AND DAMPEN OVERNIGHT...AS A WARM FRONTAL FEATURES LIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE THE WEDGE REMAINS BEST DEFINED WILL SUPPORT 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...DIMINISHING TO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS EXPECTED WITHIN A WEDGE TYPE PATTERN AND LINGERING FRONT TO THE SOUTH...A SIGNIFICANT HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM ONLY THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LINGERING THICK CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FAR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/UPSTATE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY AND PEAK WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A BIT DRIER FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL INLAND...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY CONSIDER ADJUSTING POPS DOWNWARD IF NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND...YET STILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO ASSIST THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SETTLING DIRECTLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN EXPECT LOWERING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH...ESPECIALLY WHERE A COASTAL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED MARINE SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EXPECT HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MID TO LATE WEEK WITHIN COLD ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOG FORECAST REMAINS QUITE CHALLENGING AND CARRIES A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. HIGH CLOUDS AND HIGH WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP THE FOG FAIRLY PATCHY AT KCHS EXCEPT POSSIBLY 10-12Z WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION. WILL CARRY LOW-END MVFR VSBYS FOR NOW WITH VFR CIGS. AT KSAV...CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR MORE FOG WITH THINNER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. WILL BACK OFF A BIT FROM THE 00Z TAF PERIOD OF VSBYS GIVEN THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND SHOW PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS BY 09Z WITH IFR VSBYS BY 10Z WITH TEMPO CIGS TO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TERMINALS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND STALLS OFFSHORE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. && .MARINE... TODAY...SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TODAY WITH ELEVATED DEWPOINTS INTERACTING WITH THE COLD SHELF WATERS. THE CHARLESTON PILOT BOAT REPORTED PATCHY DENSE SEA FOG EARLIER THIS MORNING AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE FOG COULD BE EXPANDING SOUTH. THIS IS HARD TO VERIFY HOWEVER. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VSBYS 1 NM OR LESS. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL PICKUP A BIT OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL JETTING INCREASES. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR PATCHY SEA FOG...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING WINDS WILL LIKELY DISPERSE ANYTHING THAT FORMS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES LATE SATURDAY...SUPPORTING STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST FLOW IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING OVER THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE TUESDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 12/06... KCHS... 81/1998 KSAV... 80/1998 KCHL... 80/1998 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR TODAY 12/06... KCHS... 62/1972 KSAV... 65/1912 KCHL... 66/1998 RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR SAT 12/07... KCHS... 61/1971 KSAV... 67/1971 KCHL... 66/1998 ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER... KCHS... 83/1972 KSAV... 83/1967 AND 1971 KCHL... 81 NUMEROUS YEARS && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ST/WMS  FXAK69 PAFG 231454 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 554 AM AKST SAT NOV 23 2013 .DISCUSSION... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MOST PART IS FAIRLY SIMILAR AMONG THE MODELS AT LEAST WITHIN FIRST 72 HOURS ON HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS A CLOSE LOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AS IT WEAKENS TO AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS MACKENZIE BAY AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WERE VERY LARGE DIFFERENCE YESTERDAY WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS AS MOVED INTO THE MID RANGE FORECAST AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE GFS INDICATING COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND ECMWF KEEP RELATIVELY WARMER. NOW THE LATEST ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER THAN PREVIOUS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOWING MINUS 22C ACROSS THE INTERIOR...EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT THE GFS WAS PREVIOUSLY INDICATING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND CONTINUE TO USE THE WPC ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH. NORTH SLOPE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING. WHILE SNOW HAS FINALLY ARRIVED TO LOCATIONS FROM NUIQSUT EAST...THE WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE. OBSERVATIONS FROM BARTER ISLAND AT 1 AM AKST SHOWED WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 25 MPH. FOR DEADHORSE THE WINDS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPED WITH CALM WINDS. THIS IS NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA WITH THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE VISIBILITIES HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO 2 MILES AT BARTER ISLAND AND HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 2.5 MILES AT DEADHORSE. HAVE CONSIDERED REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ONLY BARTER ISLAND...BUT UNLIKELY THAT THE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW EVEN A MILE AND GIVEN FORECASTED WIND TRENDS IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO MEET THAT CRITERIA. THUS HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR PUBLIC ZONE 203 AND 204 AND JUST PLACE SOME STRONGER LANGUAGE IN THE ZONE FORECAST REFLECTING LOCAL CONDITIONS. AS THE SURFACE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO BE LOCATED OVER LIVERPOOL BAY CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...A 1029 HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE OFF SHORE ZONES AT 75N AND 158W BY MONDAY MORNING. BY MID WEEK SHOULD GET EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH OFF SHORE FLOW OVER THE CHUKCHI COAST AS LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED 72N AND 171W. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS DIMINISHED FROM RUBY NORTHWARD IN PUBIC ZONE 216...SNOW IS STILL FALLING ACROSS KALTAG AREA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SATELLITE IR IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE YUKON DELTA AND SEWARD PENINSULA WILL PERSIST AS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA TODAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE SPLITTING OF THIS SURFACE LOW INTO A BROAD AREA WITH ONE 997MB OVER SEWARD PENINSULA AND OTHER 996MB SOUTHEAST OF BETHEL THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR WINDS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT...THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE WIND GUSTS AT GAMBELL THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH THE DECREASING WINDS AND AKWAVE MODEL INDICATING 4 TO 6 FEET WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AS WELL. THE LOW PRESSURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAK OVERNIGHT WITH JUST A WEAK TROUGH REMAINING BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY WEDNESDAY THE WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...HAVE CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR PUBLIC ZONE 220 AND 221 AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE SUMMITS. WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO CONTINUE OVER PUBLIC ZONE 219...218..AND 216 THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE SNOW STILL ACCUMULATING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WILL MODIFY TO REMOVE BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING WHICH IS WHEN THE ADVISORIES EXPIRE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOK ON TRACK TO END AROUND NOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WAS IMPACTING ANCHORAGE YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE LOW THAT WAS LOCATED NORTH OF ANCHORAGE YESTERDAY WILL BE A 996 MB LOW OVER DAWSON BY LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW STARTED AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT AT 1 AM AKST AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING TO NORTHEAST. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE IN FAIRBANKS WITH 2 INCHES NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS. AS THE SNOW PUSHES INTO THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY EXPECT UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACCUMULATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE LOCALLY OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS...FEEL WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES WILL BE LESS THAN NEEDED FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR AREAS IN PUBLIC ZONES 224 NORTH OF EAGLE AND PUBLIC ZONE 220 SOUTH AND EAST OF FORT YUKON. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 TO 35 MPH INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME EROSION IMPACTS TO SHISMAREF...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE DURATION OF THESE WINDS WILL BE BRIEF...LESS THAN 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LATEST ICE DESK AND SUOMI NPP VIIRS DNB IMAGERY INDICATES THE ICE ALONG THE COAST EDGE SOMETHING TO KEEP WATCH AS WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO SHOW BRIEF INCREASE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ216. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ225-AKZ226. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ MAK NOV 13  FXAK69 PAFG 221529 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 629 AM AKST FRI NOV 22 2013 .DISCUSSION... IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE IS DOMINATED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR BETHEL SEEN VIA IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS HAS ALLOWED STRONG WINDS CHINOOK WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEING PULLED IN FROM THE GULF FOR SOUTH FACING SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER AROUND THE YUKON DELTA AREA BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE SURFACE LOW SPLITS WITH ONE MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ALCAN BORDER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA AREA BROADENING AND WEAKENING TO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR NORTON SOUND. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL ALLOW FOR TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST GETS PUSHED QUICKLY NORTH AND REPLACED BY A SURFACE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. MODELS IN GENERAL HAVE REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE BROADER SYNOPTIC SCALE IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT ON THE FINER DETAILS THERE ARE STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES. AS WE MOVE INTO THE MEDIUM AND LONGER RANGE FORECAST...THE GFS AND ECMWF START TO REALLY DIVERGE. ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WHERE THE GFS WANTS TO BRING COLDER AIR WITH MINUS 16C AND ECMWF MUCH WARMER WITH MINUS 3C IN THE INTERIOR. CONTINUE TO USE THE WPC APPROACH WITH USE OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. NORTH SLOPE...STRONG WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS THE SURFACE HIGH RIDGE GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST FROM DEADHORSE WEST TOWARD BARTER ISLAND. THE ONLY HESITATION IS THAT THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS DO NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR THE CONDITIONS THE EXTREME CONDITIONS THAT WAS JUST EXPERIENCED FROM LAST WEEKS BLIZZARD EVENT. ALSO THE WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW NOT COMING INTO THE AREA UNTIL EARLY MORNING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR AS THEY WILL INDEED...BUT PERHAPS TO THE NOT THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS RECENTLY EXPERIENCED. THUS HAVE KEPT THE BLIZZARD GOING FOR THE ARCTIC COAST WEST OF DEADHORSE...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO WATCHED TO SEE IF VISIBILITY CRITERIA WILL BE MET TO THE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER THE BERING STRAIT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE YUKON DELTA TODAY. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE STRONG WIND HEADLINES ALONG THE COAST WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED OVER THE MARINE ZONE TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD. OVERNIGHT WINDS AT GAMBELL RANGED FROM 45 TO 50 MPH. ALTHOUGH SUOMI VIIR DAY NIGHT BAND FROM YESTERDAY EVENING INDICATED LARGE ICE GROWTH FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND NORTHWARD ALONG THE CHUCKCHI SEA...AND EVEN WITH SOME ICE GROWTH IN NORTON BAY...THERE IS STILL DECENT OPEN WATER TO ALLOW FOR HIGH SURF ALONG NORTH SHORE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TODAY. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AND EXPECT THE HIGH SURF TO DIMINISH AS WELL WITH THE ADVISORY ENDING AT MIDNIGHT. SNOW AS WE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG NULATO HILLS...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER KOYUKUK AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA AND SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WIND CHILL ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS THE WINDS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA FOR BOTH DELTA JUNCTION AND EAGLE. RATHER INTERESTING VIEWING THE SUOMI NPP VIIRS IR IMAGERY AS WATCHED THE THE TANANA VALLEY JET START TO INCREASE AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES FROM THE VALLEYS AND WARMING OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER THIS MORNING CAN SEE THE CLOUD COVER MOVED OVER THE AREA AS SNOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS WHERE THE CHINOOK WINDS DO NOT HAVE AN IMPACT AND SNOW CAN BE ENHANCED DUE TO OROGRAPHICS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA AS WIND ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNING YESTERDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT THERE TWO SEPARATE REPORTS OF TREES BLOWN OVER...ONE OF WHICH WAS A TREE BLOWN OVER A POWER LINE WITH POWER OUT FROM PUBLIC SPOTTER AT 1 AM AKST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS ONLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH NOON TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS...BUT STILL EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. FURTHER NORTH...THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING OVER SUMMIT LOCATIONS...THE EVENT WILL TRANSITION INTO AN ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITH LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE UPPER KOYUKUK VALLEY AND YUKON FLATS AND SURROUNDING UPLANDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ223. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ225-AKZ226. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220- AKZ221-AKZ222. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ MAK NOV 13  FXAK69 PAFG 211551 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 651 AM AKST THU NOV 21 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED OFF CAPE LISBURNE AND DOMINATING MOST OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND EASTERN INTERIOR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR BETHEL AND WILL WANDER SLOWLY TOWARDS NUNIVAK ISLAND TODAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURE WILL BRING ALLOW FOR THE CHINOOK WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ALSO PULL IN MOISTURE INTO THE YUKON DELTA AND ALASKA RANGE ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE WEAKENING TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE 1032MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER 50NM SOUTHEAST OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TO BE LOCATED 90NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AT 997MB WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM BARROW TO BARTER ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY SPLIT INTO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ONE LOW LOCATED NEAR THE DEMARCATION POINT AT 1000MB AND ANOTHER 1001MB LOCATED 60NM SOUTHEAST OF BARROW BY 3PM SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPLIT BY 3 PM ON FRIDAY WITH ONE CENTER 0F 988 MB LOCATED SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AND ANOTHER LOW CENTER OF 986 MB LOCATED NEAR PALMER. THE SURFACE LOW NEAR PALMER WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN INTERIOR WHILE THE OTHER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN ON SATURDAY EVENING. NORTH SLOPE...SOME AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE HALF MILE NEAR BARROW...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE VERY ISOLATED EVENTS ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE DATA FROM THE SUOMI NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND. IN FACT RATHER CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL SOON CHANGE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REPLACED WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM BARROW EASTWARD IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE AND WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR AREAS FROM DEADHORSE EAST TOWARDS BARTER ISLAND. HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR CONDITIONS ACROSS PUBLIC ZONES 203 AND 204 FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY MORNING AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS SNOW WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO END EARLY SATURDAY. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. SEA ICE HAS COVERED MAJORITY OF THE ARCTIC COAST EXCEPT PORTIONS WAINWRIGHT SOUTH TOWARDS POINT HOPE. HOWEVER...YOU CAN NOW SEE ICE EXTENDING OFFSHORE FROM THE VIIRS IMAGERY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR HEAVY SURF POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTH SHORES OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE THERE IS STILL OPEN WATERS. ICE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FILL PORTIONS OF NORTON BAY AND KOTZEBUE SOUND BY THE VIIRS IMAGERY. AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH ALONG YUKON DELTA AREA...THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE AS MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE HEAVY SNOW FOR PUBLIC ZONES 214 AND IT APPEARED THAT PORTION OF ZONE 212 WOULD BE THE DOWNSLOPE DRIER SIDE OF THE NULATO HILLS IN THIS EVENT. THUS THOSE TWO WATCHES WERE CANCELLED. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY...THERE STILL COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FOR THE NULATO HILLS. THUS I HAVE KEPT THE PUBLIC ZONE 215 BUT TAPERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN. STILL DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH BECAUSE STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE PUBLIC ZONE 216 WITH SNOW AMOUNTS THUS HAVE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN TACT BUT WITH THE JUMP IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS...DECIDED TO KEEP THE WATCH OUT FOR FURTHER REVIEW ON IF ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...COLD AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE WITH EVEN A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET IN BIG DELTA YESTERDAY WITH 38F BELOW ZERO WITH PREVIOUS RECORD OF 37F BELOW ZERO SET IN 1993. NEEDED TO START SOME WIND ADVISORIES AND WIND CHILL ADVISORIES DUE TO INCREASING WINDS THIS MORNING AND JUST COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. WILL NOT GO INTO GREAT DETAIL BUT COULD SEE AREAS ACROSS EAGLE REMAINING WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN DELTA JUNCTION. IT WILL BE AN INTERESTING SCENARIO WITH THE STRONGER WINDS INCREASING MAINLY OVER THE SUMMITS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS AND IT WILL BE A FINE LINE WITH THE LOCATIONS THAT GET CHINOOKED AND THOSE THAT RECEIVED HEAVY SNOW. HAVE KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCHES GOING FOR THE ALASKA RANGE THAT COULD POTENTIALLY START IN THE EVENING. NEEDED TO EXTEND SOME OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE INTERIOR...INITIALLY IT WILL BE BECAUSE OF THE WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS. HOWEVER...COULD EVENTUALLY SEE LOCATIONS LIKE ZONES 219 AND 220 THAT WILL TRANSITION INTO SNOW EVENTS AND COULD SEE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH SURF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213. WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ225-AKZ226. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210. && $$ MAK NOV 13  FXHW60 PHFO 191330 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 330 AM HST TUE NOV 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... QUIET AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING LATE TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES...AND MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SWITCHES WINDS TO THE NORTH. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN ON THURSDAY. && .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR...AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FOR PERSISTENT SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN ANCHORED ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF WINDWARD HALEAKALA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER WATERS S OF THE ISLANDS FROM KAUAI TO MOLOKAI...BUT RADAR IS THUS FAR NOT DETECTING ANY SHOWERS FALLING FROM THESE STABLE CLOUDS. A RECENTLY RECEIVED VIIRS NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT THESE ARE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS. LOOKS LIKE A SUNNY START TO THE DAY NEARLY STATEWIDE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 5.5 AND 7 KFT...THEREBY KEEPING A STRONG LID ON ANY CONVECTION TODAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A S TO SE DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW...AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE E...AND A PERSISTENT FRONT LINGERS NW OF KAUAI. BLOCKING OF THIS FLOW BY THE BIG ISLAND WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. LAND BREEZES WILL CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT...WITH LOW CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE CONVERGING SEA BREEZES. THE PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR VOG EMANATING FROM SE BIG ISLAND TO SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. A RIDGE ALOFT E OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EASTWARD. A TROUGH ALOFT NW OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE THE STABILIZING RIDGE ALOFT EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...AND HELP TO PUSH THE LURKING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...WITH MOISTURE POOLED W OF THE ISLANDS ALSO ADVECTING EASTWARD. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND S TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR KAUAI OAHU AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE CHAIN ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS BRIEFLY SWITCHING TO THE N AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS IN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCER. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT MAY PILE UP ALONG WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS WINDS VEER TO THE NE THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME MOISTURE SURGES IN THE PRE-FRONTAL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FORECAST MODELS SHOW INCREASINGLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHARPENING TROUGH ALOFT...WHICH COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MOST LIKELY AREA/TIME IS KAUAI AND OAHU AND ADJACENT WATERS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM W TO E BEGINNING LATE TODAY...CLEARING THE ISLANDS TO THE E ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ISOL MVFR CIG EXPECTED. && .MARINE... UNSEASONABLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE...AND NO MARINE ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE THE WEEKEND. POST-FRONTAL NE WINDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE THEY ARE MOST ACCELERATED AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GALE LOW DEVELOPING FAR NW OF THE ISLANDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A CORRESPONDING MODERATE NNW SWELL BUILDING ON SATURDAY...BUT REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ WAS UPDATED YESTERDAY... AND CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE SURF THAT CAN BE LOOSELY APPLIED STATEWIDE. THE PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LINGERING NW OF THE ISLANDS WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW OFFSHORE WATERS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRACK FROM SW TO NE. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ BIRCHARD  FXAK67 PAJK 171407 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 607 AM AKDT THU OCT 17 2013 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY, RIDING UP OVER THE TOP AND ONCE IT DOES WILL FLATTEN IT AND CAUSE SKIES TO BE A LITTLE DIRTIER AS WE SAY IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE. DESPITE THIS, WE STILL ARE FORECASTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH...EMPHASIZING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, BUT THINK FOLKS WILL SEE THEIR SHADOWS AT SOME TIME TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SHADOWS MAY BE LESS EASILY SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT FOR SURE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTS MORE SOLID MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE CLEARING TODAY AND EVEN AS THE MID- LEVEL STRATUS BREAKS UP THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ALOFT AND BECOME LADEN WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM PELICAN EAST TO GUSTAVUS AND NORTH TO HAINES WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS OVER YAKUTAT BAY AS WELL AS CROSS SOUND LATE. THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE YUKON WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY. NAM IS DISAGREEING WITH THE ECMWF ON THIS ONE. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE LIGHT NORTHERLIES THIS MORNING OVER THE CANAL...HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE ECMWF WHILE LOOKING AT THIS TIME PERIOD THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND AM STICKING TO MY FORECAST OF A SLOW RISE IN WINDS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF LYNN CANAL, WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLIES BUILDING TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ANOTHER ISSUE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND WRANGELL AND PETERSBURG, AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM. GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES...FOG WILL LIKELY TAKE ITS TIME TO DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER, BUT THE HOPE IS BY NOON. FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF JUNEAU, BUT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE, THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE LESS OF AN ISSUE, AND DOUBT ANY WILL BE DENSE. THE SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGE HAS PROVIDED EXCELLENT IMAGES DEPICTING THE LOCATION OF FOG...IN LOCAL DRAINAGE AREAS LIKE THE CHILKAT VALLEY TO THE BACKSIDE OF DOUGLAS AND SOUTH TO EASTERN FREDERICK SOUND. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, OTHER THAN COOLING THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR TONIGHT TO NEAR 40...FEEL THAT THEY WILL HAVE ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL LIKED THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS BUT USING MORE ECMWF FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE FRI MORNING, AND THE SECOND ON SATURDAY. THE LARGEST CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE DUE TO RAISING THE POPS AND QPF FOR THE FIRST FRONT. AT 12Z FRI A 500H TROUGH ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM OVER KODIAK AND TO THE ESE MOST OF THE WAY ACROSS THE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH THE PANHANDLE FRI MORNING. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A SPLIT IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CHAIN, WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH THAT FLOWS NNE THROUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE FIRST OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM OFFSHORE OF A YAKUTAT-SITKA LINE AT 12Z FRI. THE LANDFALL OF THIS SYSTEM DURING DAYTIME FRIDAY HAS BEEN GIVEN RAISED POP AND QPF VALUES. YAKUTAT IS FORECAST TO HAVE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FRI. POPS WERE RAISED 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE EXCEPT ZONES 28 AND 29. THE CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED BY A LARGE-SCALE LOW IN THE NW PACIFIC THAT HAS A STRONG TROPICAL ORIGIN. A LOOP OF THE GOES IR ON A PACIFIC MERCATOR PROJECTION HAS BEEN USEFUL FOR SEEING THE RAPID TRANSITION FROM A TYPHOON THAT WAS ABOUT 600 NM S OF JAPAN ON TUE, TO A NEW LOW THAT WAS ROUGHLY 600 NM SW OF SHEMYA ABOUT 06Z THU. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR THE LOW TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 962 MB IN THE VICINITY OF SHEMYA AT 00Z FRI. THIS LARGE AND DEEP SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THE SECOND OCCLUSION, AND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THE YAKUTAT TO SITKA LINE ABOUT 21Z SAT. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ026. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051. && $$ JWA/JBT  FXAK67 PAJK 151412 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 612 AM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013 .SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG WITH THE DEPARTING FRONT OVER CANADA. THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR WESTERN POW AND OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS OUT UNTIL 9 AM. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE AREA AS SEEN BY MODIS- VIIRS NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY BUT IT IS NOT REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE AT THIS TIME. THE FOG MAY BE THICKER IN PLACES THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND AREAS ALSO AS THE SUN RISES THE FOG MAY THICKEN UP. SO DID NOT CHANGE THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WILL WAIT TO SEE SOME VISUAL CONFIRMATION THEN DECIDE IF TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK ARE SEEING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED FROM A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO CANADA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SEE THE SHOWERS INCREASE THROUGH TODAY FROM THE WEST BUT THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE PRECIP RETREATS TO THE WEST. A UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER AND MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST AREA OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME INCREASED WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY BUT BY TONIGHT THEY TOO WILL DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. LYNN CANAL CONTINUES TO BLOW MIN SMALL CRAFT FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH 15 KT OVER SOUTHERN LYNN. THESE WINDS WILL VERY SLOW DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 15 KT OVER NORTHERN LYNN AND TO 10 KT OVER SOUTHERN LYNN. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAT THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. USED A BLEND OF THE EC AND NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. .LONG TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA MIDWEEK, THEN NUDGING TO THE EAST AS A SOUTHERN BERING SEA LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE IS EXITS INTO WESTERN CANADA, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TONIGHT'S SHIFT WAS FOG PLACEMENT AND SKY COVER. SURE, WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH COMPLEX TERRAIN UNDERNEATH A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALWAYS BE A CHALLENGE. ASIDE FROM LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT, MOST PLACES WILL ENJOY LIGHT WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. A GREAT DAY TO SAIL. A THERMAL TROUGH BACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP MOST SPOTS NORTH AND WEST HERE, WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS MAINLY SOUTHERLY WITH WINDS BLOWING AWAY FROM THE RIDGE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM LAST NIGHT'S FRONT EXITING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO BC, EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE, AS WELL AS A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AND THUS CLEARING SKIES, WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND YES, EVEN THURSDAY MORNING ARE GOOD SET-UPS FOR FOG OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. KEPT MUCH OF THE IDEAS OF LAST SHIFT, ALTHOUGH REMOVED YAKUTAT AS GUIDANCE NOT HINTING AT IT HERE. IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT-TERM, DID INTRODUCE SOME FOG FORMATION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF/WHEN THIS FORMS WHETHER THIS FOG EVENTUALLY REACHES ELFIN COVE, SITKA, AND CRAIG. AT THIS POINT, DO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS ONSHROE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT CHOSE NOT TO CARRY FOG AS THIS FOG LAYER HAS YET TO DEVELOP. THE AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DID USE GEM AS A CLOUD COVER GUIDE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE MODELS IS NOT GREAT. KEPT NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT PARTLY CLOUDY GIVEN THE RISK OF CLOUDS INVADING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER, DID LOWER TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING AND TO UPPER 30S DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/DOUGLAS. OTHER SPOTS WILL FLIRT/REACH THE FREEZING POINT: YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, HAINES CUSTOMS, HOONAH IN PARTICULAR. AS THE DATE GETS CLOSER AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS COME IN, THE HOPE IS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS. ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER WET WEEKEND. RAIN IN YAKUTAT IS DEFINITE FOR FRIDAY, AND CONFIDENCE MOUNTING FOR RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY, BUT KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR NOW. LIKE THE LAST FRONT, THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION, SO QPF WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GIVEN THE DRY MID WEEK, RIVERS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOWER BEFORE THIS NEXT ROUND. KEPT GFS/ECMWF/WPC INFLUENCED FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL PATTERN GOOD. LESS SO ON THE DETAILS. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ026-027. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052. && $$ ABJ/JWA  FXAK69 PAFG 032108 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 108 PM AKDT THU OCT 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN THE MID RANGE THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND ITS EVOLUTION OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PROVIDE FOR DIFFERENT IMPACTS ALONG THE WEST COAST. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE STATE. A 527 DAM LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL FILL AND MOVE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WITH 540 DAM HEIGHTS REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 522 DAM LOW OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR AS A 516 DAM LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW IMPACTING THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION EXPECTED UNDER THE CURRENT FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND. SURFACE...985 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTH OR YAKUTAT BY FRIDAY EVENING THEN FILL AND DISSIPATE. A 1011 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...AND AREAS EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND FORT YUKON. A 999 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND MOVES TO 600 NM WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO AROUND KISKA ISLAND IN THE ALEUTIANS. THE LOW CONTINUES TO 250 NM WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND DEEPENING TO 976MB BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR TO NOME TO KING SALMON AND SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL BY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT FILLS TO 985 MB. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT HOPE THROUGH THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TO COOK INLET AND SOUTH. NORTH SLOPE...NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ON THE HORIZON UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH EASTERLY DIRECTION FROM BARROW WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS TO THE EAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. LARGE SHEET OF STRATUS ON THE 1652Z VIIRS EXTENDS FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO DEADHORSE AND SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER MARINE ZONE 245. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES EAST OF DEADHORSE WITH A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED SNOW EVENT TO THE EAST. BARTER ISLAND HAS BEEN CARRYING LIGHT SNOW SINCE 03Z AND SEE NO REASON FOR IT TO STOP THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. WESTERN ALASKA...SOME CLOUDS AND MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE AS A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES IN THE AREA TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN/MOON AND CLOUDS AS THE STRATUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS BEGINS CLEARING AND WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST. THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON WILL APPROACH ST LAWRENCE ISLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND COASTAL AREAS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THEY WILL TAPER OFF A LITTLE BEGINNING SUNDAY. WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND CAPE ROMANZOF AND ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AROUND WALES. DO NOT SEE ANY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND THE ACTUAL WIND DIRECTIONS COULD CHANGE THAT. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY WILL PREVAIL BUT EXPECT THE SUN TO STICK ITS HEAD OUT FOR A WHILE DURING THE AFTERNOONS. ALONG THE BORDER THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND MAYBE A PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN ONE INCH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WHICH WILL SEE A FEW INCHES ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED...GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER ON LOW NEXT WEEK AND MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA OR THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT THAT HPC USE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT AT THIS RANGE. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STRONG LOW OFF THE WEST COAST SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTH. MODELS SHOW ONLY A COUPLE FEET OF STORM SURGE AT THIS TIME SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY ISSUES. A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION COULD CHANGE THAT THOUGH. && .MARINE...EXPECT NEAR MAX GALES TO MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD TO THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A LITTLE ON SUNDAY THEN RETURN TO GALES MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL THE ADJACENT WEST COAST AREAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB OCT 13  FXAK67 PAJK 031351 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 551 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...TWO STORIES FOR THIS SHIFT, THE SURFACE RIDGE FIRMLY PLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND INTERIOR PANHANDLE ALLOWING THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER TO SATURATE INTO RADIATIONAL FOG. THIS OCCURRED SOMEWHAT LATER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE METEOROLOGY ASSOCIATED WITH FOG SEEMED SOUND OVER THE SOUTH WITH NE'ER A CLOUD IN THE SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT MILES AWAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGE AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS WERE CLEARLY INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WERE A TOUGHER CALL. THE ORIGINAL FEELING THAT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AREA AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SURFACE RADIATION. YET WITH STILL SOME MOISTURE IN THE AIR CONTRIBUTED FROM A LOW TIDE SITUATION AS WELL AS RESIDUAL LEFT ON THE GROUND FROM THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN TOTALS, AND AN APPARENT MORE BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU ABOVE, AREAS NEAR JUNEAU, WRANGELL, PETERSBURG, AND POSSIBLY KAKE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DENSE FOG. AN EXPANDED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS JUST ISSUED TO COVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 10 AM. STILL INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES, AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST AND SOUTH. THE SECOND STORY IS THE APPROACHING FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. YAKUTAT IS ALREADY RAINING AND THEIR WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO COME UP FROM THE EAST. WINDS AT BUOY 82 ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE AND THESE WINDS WILL STRETCH INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE WEAKENING TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON. YAKUTAT BAY WILL ALSO GO TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HEALTHY WIND SHEAR AT 2000 FEET WITH THIS FRONT LASTING ALMOST 12 HOURS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING A WALL OF RAIN TO REACH YAKUTAT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY WITH AN ADDITION INCH OR INCH AND A HALF TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TIMING SKETCHY, BUT FEEL MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR JUNEAU AND NORTHERN BARANOF ISLAND...BEGINNING EARLIER FROM SKAGWAY DOWN TO CROSS SOUND. REGARDING INSIDE WATER WINDS, DID GO SMALL CRAFT LATE TONIGHT FOR CROSS SOUND AND FEEL NORTHERN LYNN WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AND LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE YUKON. MODELS OF CHOICE WAS ECMWF/GFS WITH SREF USED FOR POP FIELDS. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...MAIN FOCUS FOR LONGER RANGE WAS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM MOVING N INTO THE GULF. MODELS AGREE IN GENERAL THAT A LOW WILL TRACK N TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS SLY AND UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE FURTHER W THAN IT WILL BE WITH THE MIDWEEK FRONT...SO THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WINDS FOR FRI-FRI NIGHT PERIODS OVER THE GULF. USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR WED-FRI NIGHT...THEN BASICALLY KEPT IN OR ADJUSTED TO WPC FOR SAT ONWARD...DEPENDING ON WHAT WAS THERE PREVIOUSLY. FIRST FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST LATE WED...THEN STALL THERE WHILE WEAKENING. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. ONE TRICKY ASPECT WITH THIS FRONT IS HOW FAST PRECIP AHEAD OF IT DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THE MODEL BLEND WAS A MIDDLE GROUND COMPROMISE ON THIS...DIMINISHING THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY THU. PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NE GULF COAST WED MORNING...BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP GOING INTO WED NIGHT. THE FAR SERN AREA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...MAINLY FROM PAKT/PANT EWD WED INTO THU. LYNN CANAL WILL SEE THE MOST WIND OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER NRN LYNN CANAL WED AFTERNOON. PAGY MAY NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR WED INTO WED EVENING AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS THAT IS A 3RD-4TH PERIOD EVENT. LOOKS LIKE GALES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE GULF FOR FRI AS NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS IN. ENDED UP LOWERING SEAS FROM INITIAL GUIDANCE FROM AKWAVE AND OUTSIDE WATERS TOOL AS WFO PAFC DID NOT WANT TO JUMP THE SEAS UP AS MUCH AS I HAD INITIALLY...UP TO 20-22 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE HANDLING SYSTEM LIKE THEY ARE...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RAISE SEAS DUE TO THE FAIRLY LONG SLY FETCH. AFTER SAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT SO GOING THE WPC ROUTE WAS THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR NOW. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025>029. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-042-043-051-053. && $$ JWA/RWT  FXCA62 TJSJ 100900 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 500 AM AST SAT AUG 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ELONGATES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH JUST AREAS OF LOCALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT. ALTHOUGH...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT BULK OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK...WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TUTT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BETTER MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT PASSING SHRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...VCSH WRITTEN ON TAF. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT TODAY WHILE TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10/17Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TEMPO NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY...VCTS WRITTEN INSTEAD. SFC WIND TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. && .MARINE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 89 78 / 20 0 0 30 STT 89 81 90 81 / 20 0 0 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 25/23  FXCA62 TJSJ 100131 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 931 PM AST FRI AUG 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SECONDARY WEAK TUTT AXIS MOVING FROM THE TROP ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND SAT UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND SAT. WILL LOWER POPS GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND JUST ISOLD SAT AS PW GETS PRETTY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TUTT THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA SUN AND QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD. RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO KEEP BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OVR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST BLENDED TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TEND TO SUGGEST THAT BEST WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT AND MON ESPECIALLY OVER CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST PR. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WED-THU OF WEST SIDE OF ANOTHER TUTT. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND BUT OVERALL WX CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TROP ATLC AWFUL QUIET AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONITE BUT IS A STRETCH TO INCLUDE MVFR IN ANY TAF. SCT SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. WINDS BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT THRU SAT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. && .FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 82 88 80 89 / 20 30 40 50 STT 81 89 81 90 / 30 30 40 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  FXUS66 KMTR 281203 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 503 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2013 ...HOT INLAND TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... .DISCUSSION...AS OF 4:27 AM PDT FRIDAY...FORECAST ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES INLAND. SIMILAR TO THE EVENT EARLIER THIS MONTH THE MICRO-CLIMATES WILL KICK INTO GEAR WITH HUGE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FROM THE COAST TO THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE CURRENT 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE DRAMATIC WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS ABOUT 4-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE HILL LOCATIONS ARE RUNNING AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES WARMER WITH 80 DEGREE READINGS ALREADY SHOWING UP IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS. WITH THE LONG DAYS TEMPERATURES WILL SKY ROCKET AS THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. THE FORT ORD PROFILER SHOWS THE FOG DECK IS VERY SHALLOW AT AROUND 200 FEET. SO EVEN THOUGH THE OCEAN IS COVERED IN A SHALLOW CLOUD/FOG DECK THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO INLAND MOVEMENT THIS MORNING. THUS EVEN WITH ONSHORE GRADIENTS ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER SUNNY AND HOT DAY ONCE YOU GET AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OUTSIDE THE BAY. GIVEN THE MUCH WARMER START IN THE HILLS EXPECT TO SEE AN OVERALL WARMING TREND OF 5-10 DEGREES FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. WE HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY STARTING AT 11 AM SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS AND HILLS. PART OF THIS IS BASED ON THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BASED ON INTER-OFFICE AND PARTNER COORDINATION SEE NO NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY RIGHT NOW. A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT IT WOULD BE EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER DAY BUT GIVEN ITS STILL FRIDAY WE'VE GOT TIME TO IRON OUT THOSE DETAILS. ONLY ZONE THAT COULD ARGUABLY BE ADDED WOULD BE OUR SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAIN ZONE THAT WILL LIKELY NOW SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS (CURRENTLY 75 IN BEN LOMOND) FOLLOWED BY HOT DAYS WELL INTO THE 90S. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL GET CLOSE TO SOME RECORD HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT NOT A SLAM DUNK THAT RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN. UPSHOT IS THAT CURRENT FORECASTS AND PRODUCTS SEEM TO HAVE WEEKEND COVERED PRETTY WELL. NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TO PREDICT THE ONSET OF THE COOLING TREND. IT LOOKS LIKE HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INLAND AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OFFSHORE GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATER MONDAY OR TUESDAY SO COASTAL AND BAYSIDE COOLING WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE WEEK. PRETTY STRONG CONSENSUS IN ALL MODELS SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED INLAND COOLING BY WEDS AND THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONVECTION INTRUSION BUT RIGHT NOW NOT SEEING ANY FOCUSED OVER OUR CWA. && .AVIATION...AS OF 5:00 AM PDT FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER EXISTS PER FT ORD PROFILER AND KHAF METARS...APPROX 400 FEET. OVERNIGHT VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW PATCHY STRATUS STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE GOLDEN GATE SOUTH TO THE MONTEREY BAY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH INLAND PENETRATION WITH THIS STRATUS. ONSHORE GRADIENT IS ABOUT 1.5 MB AS WELL. THAT BEING SAID...DOWNPLAYED STRATUS CHANCES IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. ONSHORE GRADIENT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE. VICINITY OF KSFO...WILL FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND THE MONTEREY PENINSULA. A LOOK OUTSIDE ALSO REVEALED CLEAR SKIES OVER MRY TERMINAL. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MRY TO A ALLOW FOR A BRIEF CIG. && .CLIMATE...RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SITE JUNE 29 JUNE 30 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SANTA ROSA 103 IN 1934 103 IN 1972 KENTFIELD 105 IN 1934 106 IN 1972 SAN RAFAEL 99 IN 1956 98 IN 1999 NAPA 104 IN 1934 105 IN 1972 SAN FRANCISCO 95 IN 1934 93 IN 1996 KSFO 87 IN 1959 92 IN 1996 OAKLAND MUSEUM 81 IN 1999 90 IN 1972 OAKLAND AIRPORT 91 IN 1950 90 IN 1950 RICHMOND 95 IN 1985 91 IN 1996 LIVERMORE 107 IN 1934 112 IN 1972 MOUNTAIN VIEW 91 IN 1950 92 IN 1996 SAN JOSE 102 IN 1934 100 IN 1996 GILROY 105 IN 1976 98 IN 1999 MONTEREY 80 IN 1996 89 IN 1996 SANTA CRUZ 102 IN 1934 98 IN 1996 SALINAS 87 IN 1996 94 IN 1996 KING CITY 110 IN 1925 109 IN 1950 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 9 AM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION/MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  FXAK69 PAFG 261324 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 524 AM AKDT WED JUN 26 2013 .DISCUSSION... THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CERTAIN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 70 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS OBSERVED IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE ECMWF TENDS TO BE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND NAM. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ALL THE MODELS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA WITH CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ALASKAN RANGE TOWARDS MCGRATH THEN NORTHWARD TOWARDS HUSLIA AND CURVE TOWARD UMIAT. LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS AND NAM MODEL FOR THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD BACK INTO CANADA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM THEN BRING THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MOVING TOWARDS MACKENZIE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH IS BRINGS GENERATES SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. AGAIN LEANING TOWARDS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE ECMWF SEEMING TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AND AGGRESSIVE THE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC COAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. NORTH SLOPE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA. IT WAS ANTICIPATED THAT THE WINDS WOULD HAVE SHIFTED BY NOW WITH MORE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BREAKING UP OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LINGER AND MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING LATER THIS MORNING AROUND 18Z. UNTIL THEN THERE IS DENSE FOG ACROSS BARTER ISLAND WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXTENDING FROM BARROW TOWARDS BARTER ISLAND. AGAIN THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON FRIDAY. WEST COAST...YESTERDAYS EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PARTICULARLY EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH NORTHWARD WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UP THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF SHAKTOOLIK AND INTO BUCKLAND. THE HYBRID SATELLITE IR IMAGERY THAT COMBINES GOES IMAGES WITH THE MODIS OR VIIRS POLAR ORBITAL IMAGES SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -45C WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF KOYUK AND -44C WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF HAYCOCK. THUS DECENT THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING FURTHER EAST EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TOWARD GALENA AND HUSLIA. ALONG THE COASTLINE THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG...IN PARTICULAR SOME AREAS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING TO BELOW ONE MILE AT TIME OVER WHALES AND NEAR CAPE ROMANZOFF AND SCAMMONS BAY. THIS FOG SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR...AS MENTIONED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT ON WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SOUNDING AT FAIRBANKS INDICATED 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 18.2C COMPARED TO THE 16.1C YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT SINCE THE RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 76F DEGREES SET IN 1915...WHICH WAS SUSPICIOUS. IN ANY CASE...THE AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY AT 69F DEGREES EVEN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE WARMER AIR GETS PUSHED EAST. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY AS STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. THIS VOLATILE SITUATION IS A RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20 MPH... AND TINDER DRY FUELS. && .HYDROLOGY... NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223- AKZ224. && $$ MAK JUN 13  FXUS66 KMTR 021126 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 426 AM PDT SUN JUN 2 2013 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:31 AM PDT SUNDAY...COOLING TREND IS UNDERWAY WITH STRATUS RETURNING TO THE COAST AND NOW STARTING TO PUSH A FEW MILES INLAND. STILL A ROBUST 8.5 MB NORTHERLY GRADIENT BUT THE ONSHORE IS 3.1 MB FROM SFO-SAC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING DOWN THE COAST BETWEEN SAN FRANCISCO AND 130W. NAM MODEL VORTICITY AND 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS DEPICT THESE FIELDS AS WELL WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER DEPTH. THIS IS ALREADY STARTING TO SHOW UP ON THE FORT ORD PROFILER AND SAN CARLOS SODAR WITH THE INVERSION LAYER INCREASING TO AROUND 1500 FEET. TEMPERATURES WONT COOL TOO MUCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE MOST DRAMATIC COOLING ABOUT 10-20 MILES INLAND. THEN TONIGHT THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD FURTHER DEEPEN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREADING WELL INLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS WILL FEEL COOLING ON MONDAY AS PLACES LIKE CONCORD AND LIVERMORE STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 AFTER A WEEKEND OF TEMPS IN THE 90S. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEAK 500 MB CIRCULATION OFF THE CENTRAL COAST AT LEAST THROUGH WEDS OR POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN OF EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SUNNY AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN THE 60S COAST...70S INSIDE THE BAY AND 80S INLAND. BIG WEATHER STORY WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN TURN TO WARMING TREND BY FRIDAY. MODEL RUNS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BUILDING A 590-593 DM HIGH OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO GET PRETTY OUT OF HAND FROM 25-30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT OVER HEAD SO GRADIENTS BECOME NEUTRAL BUT WITH THE RIDGE SO STRONG THE HEAT SHOULD BUILD PRETTY CLOSE TO THE COAST. STILL ALMOST A WEEK OUT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY OUTLOOKS BUT AS CONFIDENCE GROWS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER POSSIBLE HEAT HEADLINES. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:24 AM PDT SUNDAY...COMPARE TO 24 HOURS AGO...WIDESPREAD STRATUS BLANKETS THE COASTLINE. SODARS/PROFILERS PUT THE INVERSION AROUND 1000-1500 FEET LATEST MODIS- VIIRS IMAGERY ACTUALLY SHOWS A FINGER OF STRATUS SLIDING THROUGH THE GAP JUST NORTH OF KSFO. FARTHER SOUTH...STRATUS HAS MADE IT INTO MONTEREY MORE EASILY. THAT BEING SAID...TOUGH CALL FOR SF BAY REGARDING STRATUS THIS MORNING. WILL ALLOW FOR POSS CIGS DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. MRY BAY CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON THEN POSSIBLE CLEARING. CIGS RETURN EVERYWHERE TONIGHT WITH A BETTER DEFINED MARINE LAYER. VICINITY OF KSFO...PREVAILING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE VFR...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 16Z FOR CIGS UNDER 1K FEET. VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...AS OF NOW IT APPEAR THAT CIGS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AROUND SFO. A FEW CIGS MAY IMPACT NORTH END OF APPROACH. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND MONTEREY BAY THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CIGS RETURN EARLY TONIGHT. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM GLW...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM UNTIL 3 PM SCA...SF BAY FROM NOON SCA...MRY BAY FROM NOON && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION/MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  FXCA62 TJSJ 010126 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 926 PM AST FRI MAY 31 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N 70W WILL SUPPORT A TROF INTO THE CARIB THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROF WILL THEN FILL AND MERGE WITH POLAR TROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. && .DISCUSSION...BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A A DECREASE IN TSTM AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ENHANCE TSTM INTENSITY. THEN AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT SIDE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 46W. WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN TPW VALUES WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SO RIGHT NOW NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE WEST MID NEXT WEEK LEADING TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AS SEEN ON MODIS ATLC AOD...MODIS AND VIIRS DUST PRODUCTS OVER THE ERN ATLC OCEAN ON THE NRL MRY WEBSITE WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ACCORDING TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FIRST SIG SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WITH SIG IMPACTS IN AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TISX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .CLIMATE...MAY 2013 WILL END AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 76 87 76 87 / 10 10 10 10 STT 78 88 78 89 / 0 0 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 13/64  FXUS64 KHUN 161009 AFDHUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 509 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013 .DISCUSSION... MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR THE TN VALLEY OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE EITHER DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED UPR LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WAS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES JUST WEST OF THE DFW METRO YESTERDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LOOK RATHER SMALL FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD BEYOND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR ANOTHER TROUGH AND PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. MORE DETAILS FOLLOW BELOW. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN BELT OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN/CONUS BORDER...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GOM. IN BETWEEN...A CLOSED UPR-LOW WAS MOVING SLOWLY EWRD ACROSS THE OK/TX BORDER REGION...WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR OK CITY. STANDARD WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A REGION OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW...WHICH WAS CORROBORATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS AND OTHER MULTI-SPECTRAL MODIS/VIIRS AND RGB IMAGERY. REGIONAL RADARS AT 330 AM CDT SHOWED HEAVIER CONVECTION WAS GENERALLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF AR AND TX...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED IN THE MEMPHIS METRO AND ALONG A NARROW LINE STRETCHING FROM THE MISS DELTA INTO SW ALABAMA. THESE SHOWERS...IN ASSOC/WITH AN AREA OF SHEARED UPR VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EWRD THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BE REACHING THE SFC...SOME OF THE LIGHTER SHOWERS ALOFT LIKELY ARE NOT REACHING THE SFC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SUBSTANTIALLY DRY MID-LAYER. THIS FEATURE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN UPR LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED W-E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH WEAK UPR VORT MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE PATTERN WITH THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS TOO CHAOTIC TO DISCERN A COHERENT FEATURE...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT LIFT ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL BE PRESENT BUT LIKELY WEAK. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE LARGELY DIFFLUENT IN NATURE. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN THE CLOUD TRENDS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE CLEARING AND INSOLATION MAY BE REALIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND PRESENT A HIGHER THREAT OF SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT WILL RETAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY ATTM GIVEN THE OTHER COMPETING FACTORS. ALTHOUGH THE PARENT UPR LOW IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL KEEP A STEADY ADVANCE TO THE EAST. BY LATER TONIGHT...THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPR LOW WILL PROBABLY PUSH INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. CONTINUING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE MID-MISS VALLEY LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW. ALTHOUGH STEERING FLOW WILL BE SW-W...CONVECTION MAY BE PARTIALLY COLD-POOL DRIVEN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT INCREASING IN OUR AREA TONIGHT. POPS WERE RAISED A LITTLE MAINLY IN THE NW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WERE KEPT AT CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL A CLEARER PICTURE EMERGES. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOK RATHER SMALL FOR NOW WITH VERY LOW SHEAR AND MARGINAL CAPE. ON FRIDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES ALBEIT UNDER A DENSER CLOUD CANOPY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC LIFT AVAILABLE. SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF STORMS ALONG THE SE FLANK OF THE UPR LOW. WHILE BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION IS MORE LIKELY TO OUR WEST OVER THE MID- MISS VALLEY OR THE WESTERN TN VALLEY...STORMS MAY MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE EWRD INTO PORTIONS OF NW ALABAMA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCTD STRONG STORMS WILL PROBABLY PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONTINUED STORM ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. KEPT POPS FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM UPR-WAVE MOVES SWRD INTO THE REGION...PERHAPS MERGING WITH THE PRE-EXISTING UPR TROUGH. INSTABILITY MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHEST ON THIS DAY...WITH CLOUD COVER THE OBVIOUS CAVEAT. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG SUGGEST STRONG UPDRAFT POTENTIAL. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD STILL OCCUR. THE EFFECTS OF THE COMBINED UPR-LVL SYSTEMS COULD IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY IN THE EAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...A SLIGHT CHANCE POP WAS INTRODUCED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY. FOR MON-TUES...A RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY IN THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. GENERALLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY RESULT FOR THE REGION. CURRENTLY...HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON MON AND TUES. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY. ALTHOUGH TYPICAL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION BY ABOUT WED. THIS WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA AND A CHANCE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS. KDW && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/ FOR 06Z TAFS...EVEN AS MORE HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS THRU TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE PERIOD. SCT/ISOL -RA MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS AL/TN BTWN 14-18Z BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLT CATEGORIES. AS THE SYSTEM TO OUR W PUSHES CLOSER LATE IN THE PERIOD...CIGS SHOULD START TO DROP BUT CAT DROPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z TOMORROW. CCC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... HUNTSVILLE 84 65 82 67 / 20 30 50 40 SHOALS 85 62 79 68 / 20 30 50 40 VINEMONT 82 62 81 67 / 20 20 40 40 FAYETTEVILLE 82 59 81 65 / 20 30 50 40 ALBERTVILLE 82 63 81 66 / 20 20 40 40 FORT PAYNE 83 59 80 63 / 20 20 40 40 && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.  FXUS66 KMTR 301151 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 451 AM PDT TUE APR 30 2013 ...A WARM WEEK AHEAD WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS FROM 6 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDS... .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:20 AM PDT TUESDAY...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE ONLY SOME MINOR POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. RIGHT NOW HALF MOON BAY IS THE ONLY SPOT REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHILE MONTEREY NOW HAS A CEILING. DETAILS FROM THE OVERNIGHT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT ARE A BIT DIFFICULT TO MAKE OUT ALTHOUGH LOOKS LIKE THE AREAS ARE VERY SMALL IN NATURE. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 10 MB WHICH WILL HELP TO GREATLY LIMIT IMPACTS TO ALMOST ALL SPOTS. BOTTOM LINE...OUTSIDE OF JUST A FEW SPOTS...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS AND APPROACHED RECORD VALUES IN A FEW AREAS. TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER AS HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROF THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL LOWER 5 DEGREES OR SO COMPARED TO MONDAY -- STILL WARM BUT WELL SHORT OF ALMOST ALL RECORDS. COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE MORE OF A MARINE INFLUENCE AS THE WESTERLY GRADIENT WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 MB FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST TO MID 70S TO MID 80S INLAND. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GREATLY INCREASE. BY TONIGHT THE SFO-WMC FORECAST CALLS FOR AN IMPRESSIVE 21 MB WHILE 925 MB SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS 45 KT. WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS GUSTS OVER 50 MPH LOOK LIKELY FOR BOTH THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS CONCENTRATING MORE ON THE NORTH BAY HILLS...GROUND TRUTH FROM PAST EVENTS SHOWS THAT MANY TIMES THE EAST BAY HILLS SEE WINDS AS STRONG (OR LOCALLY STRONGER). MAIN CONCERN REMAINS FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES, SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE. A GENERIC WIND ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN PLACES FOR LOCAL GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT IN THE PACIFIC BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE A FAIR NUMBER OF RECORDS FALLING ON FRIDAY WHEN THE WARMEST AIR ARRIVES (AND MANY RECORD SHOW A SLIGHT DIP FOR THAT DAY). STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF NEARLY 6 ARE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES AT 1000 MB WHICH -- IF IT VERIFIES -- WOULD CAUSE A SLEW OF RECORDS TO BE TOPPLED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WARMTH WILL EXTEND ALL OF THE WAY TO THE COAST OR ENOUGH OF A FLOW OFF THE WATER WILL KEEP THINGS THERE MORE MODERATED. INTERIOR SPOTS DEFINITELY LOOK VERY WARM TO HOT WITH 850 MB READINGS OF 19-21C POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NEAR OUR AREA. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP BY AT LEAST 5C AND 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LOWER FROM 585 DM TO JUST 560 DM. HIGHS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN THE 60S AT THE COAST WILL 70S TO LOWER 80S INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING LIKELY FOR NEXT WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:50 AM PDT TUESDAY...VFR EXCEPT PATCHY MVFR AROUND MRY BAY THROUGH MID MORNING. FT ORD PROFILER SHOWS MARINE LAYER CLIMBING UP TO 1500 FT HOWEVER NORTH SOUTH SFO-ACV GRADIENT REMAINS OVER 9 MB PREVENTING FURTHER STRATUS INTRUSION. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...SHORT LIVED MVFR THIS MORNING. VIIRS DAY NIGHT SATELLITE AND GOES-R MVFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE CLOUD DECK IS PATCHY. OTHERWISE VFR WITH ONSHORE WINDS. && .FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 3:20 AM TUESDAY...RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS ZONES ABOVE 1000 FEET FROM 6 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THE WEATHER FACTORS LINE UP FOR A STRONG RED FLAG EVENT. WILD CARD HAS BEEN THE FUELS WHICH ALL RECENT READINGS SHOW BEING AT OR NEAR RECORD DRY LEVELS FOR LATE APRIL. RED FLAGS IN LATE APRIL OR EARLY MAY ARE ESSENTIALLY UNPRECEDENTED AROUND HERE. HOWEVER WE'VE HAD VERY DRY WEATHER SINCE JANUARY FIRST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW WEEKS IN GENERAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL A FEW DEGREES TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY BUT STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND EAST AND INDUCE A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...SIMILAR TO A FALL OFFSHORE WIND EVENT. HOWEVER UNLIKE THE LATE FALL OR WINTER THIS EVENT WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT. EXPECT MILD TO WARM OVERNIGHT READINGS IN THE HILLS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HUMIDITY STAYING UNDER 30 PERCENT AND LIKELY AROUND 20 PERCENT. NAM MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SPIKE IN WINDS AT THE 1500-3000 FOOT LEVEL AROUND 06Z (11 PM TUESDAY NIGHT). A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 35 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND STRONGER GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN POWER LINES AS WELL AS DROUGHT/DISEASED STRESSED TREES. OBVIOUSLY THE DOWNED LINES COULD SPARK NEW FIRES. HOPING THE RED FLAG WILL INDUCE EXTRA VIGILANCE WITH THE GENERAL PUBLIC FOR THINGS LIKE BARBECUES...WELDING AND SPRING BURNING PROJECTS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...WIND ADVISORY...NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM GLW...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL AVIATION/MARINE: AC FIRE WEATHER: BELL/RWW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA  FXAK69 PAFG 112058 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1258 PM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE CHUCKCHI SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND MOVE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALASKA...BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE IT WEST ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AFTER FRIDAY. NORTH SLOPE...THE SUOMI NPP VIIRS SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT WAS INDICATING A DECENT LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY INDICATED 1 TO 2 MILES IN VISIBILITY WITH FLURRIES AND FOG. THE IFR CONDITIONS ALIGN VERY WELL WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MODIS IFR PRODUCT. THERE ARE SOME VERY ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THE MODIS LIFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITHIN THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND PERHAPS A BREAK IN SOME OF THE FOG. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPCOMING WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BROOKS RANGE...PUBLIC ZONE 206 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COLDER AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST INTO MUCH OF THE BROOKS RANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE HILLS. WESTERN ALASKA...SOMEWHAT QUIET ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS LIKE ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTON SOUND INCLUDING THE ST MICHAELS AREA. THE VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT POCKET OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA INCLUDING NOME AREA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ST MICHAEL. OTHER AREAS OF THE NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AS FORECASTED AND SEEN IN AREA WEB CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE FOG OR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS EXPECTING TO CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING. GAMBLE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES UP TO A MILE DUE TO LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...FLURRIES EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 21 BELOW TO 28 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF ?? TO ?? ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN...MANY AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE INCREASED WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS OF 45 BELOW TO 60 BELOW...DEPENDING ON LOCATION...THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MAK MAR 13  FXUS63 KMKX 260909 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 309 AM CST MON NOV 26 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CAUSE AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER SRN WI FOR A TIME THIS MRNG. TIMELY VIIRS DAY/NIGHT BAND IMAGE FROM 0721Z SHOWED THICKER CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST CWA EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NRN WI. A FEW FLURRIES GETTING SHAKEN FROM THESE CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH IN VICINITY OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS UPPER JET FINALLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME EARLY THIS MRNG ACROSS SRN WI. HOWEVER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION AND DRYING SHOULD RESULT IN CLOUDS DECREASING LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DAYTIME TEMPS NOT EXPCD TO RISE MUCH DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS CARRYING EVEN COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS AND APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE ALSO PROTECTING SRN WI FROM THE ISENTROPIC LIGHT PRECIP EVENT GOING ON TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WI. DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF TNGT WL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 RANGE MOST AREAS. FEW LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER GOING ON TUESDAY. WILL START OUT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...BUT WILL SEE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EVENING...CLEARING BY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. TOOK OUT MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY EVENING...AS MODELS NOW FARTHER NORTH WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A COLD PUNCH WITH THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT RECOVERING QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD ACTUALLY END UP MILDER WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING NORMAL VALUES. SHOULD BE EVEN MILDER THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM LESS CONFIDENCE TONIGHT FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND THAN THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS. WARM FRONT WILL SETUP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO EXACT PLACEMENT AND RESULTANT TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS MAINTAINS A SHORTWAVE BRINGING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE CANADIAN REMAINS DRY AND THE ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF PRECIP CHANCES. DID KEEP SOME LOW POPS PER THE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION. TEMPS ALOFT FRIDAY WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 50...BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF MIXING WITH THE WARM FRONT NEARBY AND PROBABLY A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. KEPT HIGHS NEAR MODEL 2M VALUES...MAINLY LOW 40S. THE ECMWF IS STILL BRINGING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AMONG ALL MODELS...WITH 2M DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S...SOME EVEN INTO THE LOW 50S. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...BUT DID INTRODUCE POPS SATURDAY PER THE ECMWF SHOWING THIS STRONGER WAVE FOR A COUPLE RUNS NOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDS EVEN WITH THE CANADIAN AND GFS...SO STUCK CLOSER TO 2M TEMPS AGAIN...THOUGH STILL RESULTED IN MILD HIGH TEMPS AROUND 50. WITH NOT MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SATURDAY...THE GFS KEEPS THE MILD TEMPS GOING INTO SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A BRIEF COOL DOWN. OBVIOUSLY QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...SO GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH TEMPS FOR NOW...KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING. LOOKS LIKE MILDER AIR COULD LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...FEW CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR THIS MRNG BUT MOSTLY VFR EXPCD. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER THIS MRNG AS UPPER JET SHIFTS EWD ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE OVER SRN WI ALONG WITH INFLUX OF LOW TO MID LEVEL DRIER AIR. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG EARLY THIS MRNG...HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVY HAS ALREADY BEEN CANCELLED. NORTHWEST WINDS STILL EXPCD TO REACH 10 TO 20 KTS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES AND COLD AIR OVER WARMER LAKE SURFACE CREATING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PASSING WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN VEERING SFC WINDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TUE NGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV  FXAK67 PAJK 211453 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 553 AM AKST WED NOV 21 2012 .SHORT TERM...SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED PATTERN IN THE GULF AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC THIS MORNING. THERE ARE AROUND 4 SEPARATE CIRCULATION CENTERS VISIBLE ON IR AND VIIRS NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGES. THE STRONGEST IS WEST OF DIXON ENTRANCE CURRENTLY AND IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SECOND LOW IS JUST SE OF KODIAK ISLAND, A THIRD IS AROUND 50N 140W, AND THE FOURTH IS A VERY WEAK ONE OVER HAIDA GWAII. THEY ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS THAT ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AT THE MOMENT. KETCHIKAN AND ANNETTE HAVE BEEN REPORTING RAIN MOST OF THE MORNING AND THE RADAR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AROUND SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND AS WELL. PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GULF. ALSO AFFECTING THE AREA IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE YUKON THAT ALONG WITH THE LOWS IN THE GULF ARE CAUSING STRONG COLD OUTFLOW WINDS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. HAINES, SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU ARE STILL UNDER STRONG WIND HEADLINES DUE TO THIS FOR THE MORNING AND MOST NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS HAVE EITHER GALE WARNINGS OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE WINDS IN JUNEAU ARE MAINLY DUE TO A MODERATE TAKU WIND EVENT THAT PEAKED LAST NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 KT AT SOUTH DOUGLAS AND THE FEDERAL BUILDING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOWS IN THE GULF WEAKEN AWAY AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW DIMINISHES. THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING LATE TONIGHT AS WE START TO GET MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING STRONG STORM IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. BY 12Z THURS THE LOW WILL HAVE DROPPED TO 970 MB AND BE AROUND 50N 145W. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS HOWEVER WILL NOT. I AM EXPECTING E TO SE WIND UP TO STORM FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER MARINE ZONE BY LATE TONIGHT AND GALES FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND OUTER MARINE ZONES. ON LAND, GUSTS COULD BE REACHING INTO THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT. AS FOR PRECIP NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED YET. THE MAIN RAIN BANDS WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD STILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE NOW DISSIPATED LOWS THAT WERE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS FROM ANY WEAKER PRE-FRONTAL BANDS. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE SOUTH AS THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW AND DRY COLD AIR OVER THE NORTH WILL INHIBIT THE PRECIP FROM MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. AS FOR TYPE BARANOF ISLAND, PRINCE OF WALES, AND AREAS SOUTH OF WRANGELL WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN WITH MAYBE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AT TIMES. NORTH OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE SNOW BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IF PRECIP FALLS AT ALL. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS FEATURES THAT WERE PRESENT OUT IN THE GULF THIS MORNING SO MAIN GUIDANCE WAS IN THAT DIRECTION. GFS WAS A CLOSE SECOND, WHILE THE EC LAGGED BEHIND DUE TO IT REPRESENTING THE FEATURES AS A LITTLE TOO WEAK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE. && .LONG TERM...A POWERFUL LOW IS EXPECTED DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN GULF ON THURSDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY. LOOKING FOR 60+ KT WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF... AND POTENTIALLY GUSTS OF 6O TO 80 MPH OR MORE TO IMPACT THE PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND NORTH TO SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND. THE LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS LEADING TO STRONG CROSS BARRIER FLOW IN THE JUNEAU AREA THAT IS FAVORABLE TO TAKU LIKE WINDS FOR THURSDAY IN THE DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AREA AND DOUGLAS. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ON THURSDAY THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS HOW MUCH WARMING WILL BE GOING ON AND IMPACTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE LOW APPROACHES PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND ANOTHER BATCH OF GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THEM THE AS WELL. AFTER THAT THE LOW WEAKENS MORE AND SLIDES EAST LEAVING RESIDUAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ANOTHER SYSTEM TRYING TO SPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD TO ABOUT SATURDAY AND THEN FALLS OFF TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY LESS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ023-026>028. STRONG WIND UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR AKZ025. STRONG WIND LATE TONIGHT FOR AKZ029. STRONG WIND UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ018-019. MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012-041. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033-035-036-042-043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-034-051-052. && $$ EAL/BEZENEK  ATHW40 PHFO 041228 SIMHI HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1230 UTC SUN NOV 04 2012 BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 04 2012 THE LEADING EDGE OF AN OVERCAST CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IS 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAGGED CLOUD BAND IS 250 MILES ACROSS NEAR 30N AND DIMINISHES TO 120 MILES NEAR 25N. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND RUNS FROM 30N 152W TO 20N 160W AND 22N 165W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING WITHIN THE BAND FROM 26N TO 30N WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING 41 THOUSAND FEET. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...OUT TO 140W AND NORTH OF 20N...LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IN THE DEEP TROPICS...THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SENDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOPS TO 50 THOUSAND FEET WITHIN THE AREA BOUND BY 5N AND 10N FROM 140W TO THE DATELINE. NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE VIIRS DAY-NIGHT BAND SHOWS AN ARCHING BAND OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WATERS THAT ALSO COVERS THE AREAS NEAR HILO AND VOLCANO. NORMAL INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OAHU. NONE OF THESE SHOWERS ARE MAKING OVER LAND AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE MOUNTAINS SEEM TO BE KEEPING THEM AT BAY. SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE MAKING OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF KAUAI AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVERCOMING THE LAND BREEZES TO PUSH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASHORE. OTHER ISLAND LOCATIONS HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. $$ MORRISON  ATHW40 PHFO 031230 SIMHI HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 1230 UTC SAT NOV 03 2012 BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 03 2012 THE LEADING EDGE OF AN OVERCAST CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS 330 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI THIS MORNING...AND IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 30 MPH NORTH OF 25N...AND 20 MPH EASTWARD SOUTH OF 25N. THE CLOUD BAND IS 200 MILES ACROSS NEAR 30N AND DIMINISHES TO 120 MILES IN WIDTH SOUTH OF 25N. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND RUNS FROM 30N 158W TO 22N 170W AND 20N 175W. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING WITHIN THE BAND FROM 24N TO 30N WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING 46 THOUSAND FEET. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST...LOW CLOUDS INCLUDING TOWERING CUMULUS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AT 25 MPH. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL PACIFIC. SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...IN THE DEEP TROPICS...THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SENDING THUNDERSTORM TOPS TO 53 THOUSAND FEET WITHIN THE AREA BOUND BY 7N AND 12N FROM 140W TO 160W. NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE VIIRS DAY-NIGHT BAND SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WITH RADAR CONFIRMING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA. THE WINDWARD HANA COAST AND LOWER SLOPES ARE COVERED WITH LOW CLOUDS WHILE THE REST OF MAUI COUNTY IS CLEAR. ON OAHU...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL. ON KAUAI...THE EARLIER CLOUDY SKIES HAVE CLEARED IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. $$ MORRISON