FXUS65 KSLC 031605 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1005 AM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER THIS MORNING...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. SATELLITE DERIVED PWS ARE ALREADY RUNNING IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75 RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFS INDICATING 1 INCH OR GREATER PWS REACHING FAR SOUTHWEST UTAH BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS A BIT FOR THAT AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE...RESULTING IN HIGH BASED CONVECTION. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE REMOVED SHOWER WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAXES STEADY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER...WHILE NORTHERN UTAH WARMS FURTHER WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME WASATCH FRONT LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE MAXES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS...LOWERING HEIGHTS A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING TOMORROW...WITH MAXES APPROACHING CLIMO BY TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE COTTONWOOD CREEK...SPRING CREEK...LOGAN RIVER...THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE UINTAS...AND THE UPPER WEBER RIVER. RAPID MELTING OF THE REMAINING HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THESE RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH FLOWS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD LEVELS. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED NEAR ANY OF THESE RIVERS AS THEY ARE FLOWING VERY FAST AND VERY COLD. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST A BIT LATER THAN USUAL...BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY IS FOR POTENTIAL OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. BELIEVE THAT GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL...BUT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE VALLEYS OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH WEST CENTRAL UTAH. GOES SATELLITE DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MODIS PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BOTH INDICATE THAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE UTAH-ARIZONA BORDER. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO WET THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY BUT WILL BE ON THE RISE TOMORROW AS DEEPER MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO UTAH. BELIEVE THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED STORMS SPREADING INTO NORTHERN UTAH. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO YIELD PRIMARILY WET STORMS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ TRAPHAGAN/GRAHAM FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 032142 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 342 PM MDT SUN JUL 3 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO RAPIDLY STREAM IN FROM ARIZONA. SATELLITE DERIVED PW VALUES ARE APPROACHING 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH...AND THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL SPREAD CROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE UINTAS...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS. ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY. SALT LAKE CITY AIRPORT HAS REACHED 101F THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING THIS THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND THE FIRST WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE CROSSING THE CENTURY MARK. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED WARMING A BIT OVER SOUTHERN UTAH...WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS VALUES. INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MIDWEEK. OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE WEEK...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ROTATE THROUGH THE RIDGE...RESULTING IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRIFT INTO THE VALLEYS. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A WAVE MOVING UP FROM ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEY DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS...BUT EITHER WAY THIS SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THAT PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT A DRYING TREND NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO HAVE TAPERED POPS SLIGHTLY BY DAY 7. && .HYDROLOGY...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE COTTONWOOD CREEK...SPRING CREEK...LOGAN RIVER...THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE UINTAS...AND THE UPPER WEBER RIVER. RAPID MELTING OF THE REMAINING HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THESE RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH FLOWS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD LEVELS. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED NEAR ANY OF THESE RIVERS AS THEY ARE FLOWING VERY FAST AND VERY COLD. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING AS CUMULUS CLOUDS INCH NORTHWARD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY DUE TO STORMS PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD. && .FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY KEEPING A VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH INTO UTAH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH HAVE SURGED NORTH ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL UTAH. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING... PARTICULARLY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE IN CENTRAL UTAH AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE OCCURRING IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL. HOWEVER...VERY ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE HAVE ISSUES A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 435 BELOW 7000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO ALL OF UTAH ON MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS STORMS WILL BE OF THE WET VARIETY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES UP AS WELL. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7000 FEET FOR UTZ435. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...TRAPHAGAN AVIATION...YOUNG FIRE WEATHER...GRAHAM FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 101037 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 420 AM MDT SUN JUL 10 2011 .SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION INTO MONDAY BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST BY MID WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND. && .DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE LEAVING MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE STATE WITH AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AND HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT REMNANT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF ARIZONA HELPING TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE DECENT WITH NAM INDICATING THAT A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN UTAH WILL SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 750 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN. FURTHER SOUTH HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGER THREAT WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND MODEST STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE PROJECTED INSTABILITY...AND THE WAVE LIFTING NORTH OUT YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION ON THE MOGOLLON RIM...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE LARGELY REMAINS IN PLACE INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ONSET OF THE DRYING TREND BEGINS TO IMPACT EXTREME WESTERN UTAH. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST THE STATE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING THE AIRMASS OUT THAN THE NAM...WITH THE ECMWF SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP A MENTION OF ISOLATED COVERAGE ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. BY MID WEEK DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED AS WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED. ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION AND EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. MAY BEGIN TO SEE A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LARGELY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THIS REGARD. && .HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE UINTA MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. A DOWNWARD TREND IN FLOWS WILL CONTINUE ON AREA RIVERS NEXT WEEK AS THE SNOW PACK CONTINUES TO DECREASE. HOWEVER...RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW VERY FAST AND VERY COLD WELL THROUGH JULY. EXTREME CAUTION IS URGED NEAR ANY NORTHERN UTAH WATERWAYS. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EXISTS TODAY AND MONDAY... ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN UTAH...AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST AS A RESULT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN THE VICINITY OF THESE SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE TERMINAL WILL DIRECTLY BE IMPACTED BY A THUNDERSTORM. && .FIRE WEATHER...WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN. HOWEVER...IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS THAT FORM...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW DRYING TREND AREAWIDE. BY MID-WEEK BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM HYDROLOGY...GRAHAM AVIATION...HOSENFELD FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 161622 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1015 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2011 .SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ALLOWS DEEP MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH. MODIS IMAGERY DEPICTED SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF THREE-QUARTERS OF INCH BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS/VIRGA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE SURGE WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH POSITIVE MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN MINIMAL AS INSTABILITY IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STILL...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS AFTERNOON....PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER FLOW ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WILL RESULT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UTAH. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND SKY COVER IN FAR SOUTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT AN AWW FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE REQUIRED. && .FIRE WEATHER...A DRY AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE DISTRICT TODAY...PRODUCING AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH. THE AIRMASS OVER THE DISTRICT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH SUNDAY. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7500 FEET FOR UTZ435-440. RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ439. WY...NONE. && $$ GRAHAM/KRUSE FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 162156 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 350 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2011 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD WESTWARD ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE STATE MONDAY AND LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. THIS RIDGE IS EXPANDING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH TOWARD UTAH. EARLY AFTERNOON MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS FAR EASTERN UTAH WITH VALUES AROUND AN INCH EAST OF THE GREEN RIVER RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RETURNING MOISTURE HAS STAYED EAST OF THE CWA WITH SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE WEST. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS STATE ON SUNDAY. IN THE NAM...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IN SOUTHEAST UTAH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RAPID RETURN WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. HOWEVER...NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND POSITIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPE STRUGGLE TO SPREAD WEST OF THE WASATCH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...EVEN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE RISE. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK FORCING AND ORGANIZATION IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT AT ALL. ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS WESTERN UTAH WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME BREEZY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. MONDAY...COVERAGE OF POSITIVE SURFACE-BASED CAPE...ALBEIT MODEST...SPREADS STATEWIDE. BEST SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SBCAPE WILL BE MODEST...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO NEAR AN INCH STATEWIDE...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE WHERE VALUES MAY APPROACH AN INCH AND A QUARTER. THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UTAH. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK. HOWEVER...ECMWF FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT MORE ON TUESDAY ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THAN DOES THE GFS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SUPPRESSION OF 7H TEMPERATURES BELIEVE MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN FOR TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF IN THIS REGARD. WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS WAVE...MOISTURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO DECREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE WEST AND SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. A DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ECMWF AND GFS REALLY BEGIN TO DEVIATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF PLACES THE GREAT BASIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BAGGY TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN INTO UTAH. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST KEEPING DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY. && .AVIATION...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH GUSTS LIKELY NEAR 30 MPH UNTIL AROUND 03Z. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR A BRIEF SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER CLEAR SKIES. && .FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UTAH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING ANOTHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE TO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN TO MANY LOCATIONS. THE NEXT REAL DRY PERIOD APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1000 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 7500 FEET FOR UTZ435-440. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 900 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE UTZ439. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM AVIATION...YOUNG FIRE WEATHER...KRUSE FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 251624 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1024 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH FORECAST TO CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BUILD AS A TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS IS ALLOWING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONE INCH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER WEST CENTRAL UTAH THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND SKY COVER THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED THIS MORNING. BROAD AREA OF CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH...WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT WARMING A BIT TODAY AND MAY ALSO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL...FEEL THAT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SCATTERED POPS SEEM TO COVER THE THREAT WELL. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT GREATER OVER THE SOUTH...AS CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS INDICATING PW VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.4 INCHES OVER SOUTHEAST UTAH. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW. WILL SUCH LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS. FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH...AND THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER AIRMASS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...MODIS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING ONE INCH HAVE PUSHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT THIS MORNING. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ALSO BRINGING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS CERTAINLY LIMITING INSTABILITY TO THIS POINT AND A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NORTH BELIEVE THAT RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED PRIMARILY TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH...ALTHOUGH FEEL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL DRY STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND LIKELY A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY. WITH MOISTURE SURGING NORTH AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW MEXICO...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE UP QUITE A BIT TODAY AND TUESDAY. DRYING TREND WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SHIFT WILL OCCUR LATER THAN EXPECTED OR SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NEARBY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN AVIATION... FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 270426 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1020 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF UTAH TONIGHT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BIT OF A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK INTO UTAH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF UTAH. LATEST MODIS PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM THE CENTRAL WASATCH FRONT TO NEAR ELY NV. THIS IS SAME AXIS ALONG WHICH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS TENDED TO BE LOW CENTROID IN NATURE AND WITH LOW LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION HEIGHTS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE... THIS RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY SINCE 0200 UTC AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS DEVELOPED. STILL SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE...PRIMARILY FROM WEST CENTRAL UT THROUGH NORTHEAST UT. HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY AND HAVE ALLOWED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 0400 UTC. AREA OF CURRENT ACTIVITY MATCHES UP WELL WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300 HPA JET STREAK AND MODEST MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS AT 700 HPA. ANTICIPATE BOTH OF THESE LARGER SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER EASTERN UTAH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE LATE EVENING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL UTAH. HAVE ALSO MODIFIED WIND ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. OTHERWISE....ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. && .AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THE KSLC TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS OVER TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET AGL. && .FIRE WEATHER...SOME DRYING HAS SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS. MODEST DRYING IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICT FROM THE WEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT THEY WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS AND THE THREAT OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE LOWER. MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE DISTRICT FRIDAY WITH A DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM FIRE WEATHER...WILENSKY AVIATION...GRAHAM FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 271647 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1030 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY THEN START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH ON SUNDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. THE KSLC SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AT 1.05 INCHES AND THE SALT LAKE CITY GPS-MET SENSOR INDICATES THAT THIS HAS RISEN TO NEAR 1.20 INCHES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES THAT SIMILAR VALUES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. WEAK SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND BELIEVE THAT THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS IT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN UTAH LATER TODAY. SO ANTICIPATE SOME POTENTIAL SUPPRESSION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE...FOR A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AIRMASS WILL RECOVER ENOUGH FOR TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS ALREADY 500-100 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASE CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STILL 75-150 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREA. EXPECT THIS INHIBITION TO ERODE BY 1900 UTC WITH TERRAIN INDUCED CONVECTION SOON FOLLOWING. NORTH WILL DESTABILIZE OVER THE SAME PERIOD AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE. WITH THE STATE UNDER OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE REGION THAT WOULD LEAD TO BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION...THEREFORE ANTICIPATE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER THAN TYPICAL LFC HEIGHTS FOR THE GREAT BASIN ...PERHAPS AS LOW AS 2000M AGL...COMBINED WITH WEAK FLOW AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. ANTICIPATE SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BOUNDARY MERGERS. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE BEHIND WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH IS PRIMARY REASON THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT ISSUED. HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMPERATURE AND POP GRIDS THIS MORNING. && .AVIATION...THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE SLC TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTS. AWAY FROM STORMS...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z...WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE...WITH HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AND GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS FAR AS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING AVIATION...SCHOENING FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 272201 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 355 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL DRIFT WEST AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO UTAH. WESTERLY FLOW WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS UTAH. GPS-MET SENSOR CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT COLUMN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS HOVERING AROUND 1.20 INCHES IN SALT LAKE CITY. AFTERNOON MODIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENERALLY 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES STATEWIDE. AIRMASS QUICKLY DESTABILIZED IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE IN THE NORTHWEST. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE AT 2100 UTC. ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS DECENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE NORTH WHICH IS WHAT HAS BEEN HOLDING BACK THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ENABLING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED STATEWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST ON SUNDAY CUTTING OFF FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE. AIRMASS WHICH IS IN PLACE WILL MODIFY A BIT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LOWER FROM TODAYS VALUES. DECENT INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE... EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WITH WEAK SHEAR...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED. SLOW DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FIRST DECENT TROUGH OF THE LATE SUMMER. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE A SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND A LARGELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A WINDY DAY CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE UPPER FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND QUICKLY WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE AS A SECOND AND STRONGER WAVE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION SHOW A DRY AND COOLER PERIOD FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL BETWEEN 02 AND 03Z WHEN A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED. THIS WIND SHIFT TIMING MAY OCCUR EARLIER DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SLC VALLEY. BEST THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WILL BE BETWEEN 01 AND 05Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS LED TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE THROUGH TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UTAH...AND GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF. THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIRMASS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM FIRE WEATHER...SCHOENING AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  FXUS65 KSLC 202154 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 350 PM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS COVERS UTAH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A REGION OF 250-550 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH AND EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FURTHER DRYING ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH. REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS DOMINATING THE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A SLOW...AND MODEST...WARMING TREND. AIRMASS SHOULD BE QUITE DRY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE NO MENTION OF CONVECTION....EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST COAST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS EJECTS A WEAK WAVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BUT IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS THE WEAKENING WAVE THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER AND INDICATES THAT IT WILL HAVE MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION AND THERE ARE CERTAINLY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT IT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW POPS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UTAH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT KSLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 03 TO 04Z THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST. && .FIRE WEATHER....LINGERING MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED A FEW AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE A ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...GRAHAM FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)