FXCA62 TJSJ 021431 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1031 AM AST WED JAN 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE INTO NEXT WEEK KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER. && .DISCUSSION...LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA INDICATE VERY DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY WITH PWAT DROPPING LESS THAN AN INCH AND H85 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE ORDER OF 20-25C. DO NOT SEE ANY CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS TODAY BASED ON THIS AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TODAY SAVED FOR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX NEXT FIVE DAYS. && .MARINE...NORTH SWELLS HAVE PEAKED AND ARE NOW ON THEIR WAY DOWN BUT STILL REMAIN AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS. BY 00Z TONIGHT...SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD SHOULD COME DOWN SUFFICIENTLY TO REDUCE THE RISK OF SIG BREAKING WAVE ACTION AND RIP CURRENT. && .FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY NOW IN A LOT OF PLACES TO POSE A FIRE RISK BASED ON AHPS DEFICITS...KBDI VALUES AND MODIS IMAGERY. VERY LOW HUMIDITIES AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS WILL POSE A FIRE RISK TODAY. SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THU AND FRI BUT THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN SAT AND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DRY OUT FUELS FURTHER. && .CLIMATE...AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT...2012 ENDED AS THE FOURTH WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 81.6F DEGS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 76.0F DEGS. THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD WAS IN 1983 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 82.4F DEGS. DEC 2012 ALSO ENDED AS THE NINTH WARMEST ON RECORD WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 79.4F DEGS. THE WARMEST DEC ON RECORD WAS IN 1980 WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 80.7F DEGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 83 72 83 73 / 0 20 30 20 STT 85 74 85 75 / 0 20 20 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CULEBRA- MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN INTERIOR. VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS. COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AST THIS EVENING FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ 64/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 010126 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 926 PM AST FRI MAY 31 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N 70W WILL SUPPORT A TROF INTO THE CARIB THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROF WILL THEN FILL AND MERGE WITH POLAR TROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. && .DISCUSSION...BLENDED TPW PRODUCT AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT A A DECREASE IN TSTM AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ENHANCE TSTM INTENSITY. THEN AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT SIDE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 46W. WHILE MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN TPW VALUES WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SO RIGHT NOW NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS WAVE TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS FROM THE WEST MID NEXT WEEK LEADING TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AS SEEN ON MODIS ATLC AOD...MODIS AND VIIRS DUST PRODUCTS OVER THE ERN ATLC OCEAN ON THE NRL MRY WEBSITE WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA ACCORDING TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FIRST SIG SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WITH SIG IMPACTS IN AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ AND TISX. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO NEAR 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .CLIMATE...MAY 2013 WILL END AS THE THIRD WETTEST MAY ON RECORD AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WITH 14.54 INCHES OF RAIN. THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WAS IN 1936 WHEN 16.88 INCHES OF RAIN WERE RECORDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 76 87 76 87 / 10 10 10 10 STT 78 88 78 89 / 0 0 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 13/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 020050 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 850 PM AST SAT JUN 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR NEAR 33N 69W WILL SUPPORT A TROF INTO HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. && .DISCUSSION...COMPARISON OF VIS IMAGERY FROM THREE DIFFERENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITES (GOES-14, GOES-12 SOUTH AMERICA AND METEOSAT) CONFIRMED A LAYER OF DUST HAZE WAS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AT SUNSET. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOWED HIGHER AEROSOL CONCENTRATIONS JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. BLENDED TPW ALSO SHOWS SUBSTANTIALLY DRYER AIR NOW OVER THE USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT DUST HAZE TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE OVER OUR SKIES. ALSO EXPECT TSTM AREAL COVERAGE TO BE GREATLY REDUCED FROM TODAY SO WILL ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AS UPPER TROF AXIS PULLS EAST AND LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER SUBSIDENT SIDE PRECEDING TROPICAL WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W THIS EVENING WILL ENTER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL START WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST SPLITTING OF MOISTURE FIELD WILL OCCUR WITH THIS WAVE WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE GOING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE ADVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS ACTUALLY MON NIGHT WITH DRYING EXPECTED OVER THE USVI BY TUE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS WAVE...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SAHARAN DUST EVENT OF THE SUMMER WILL FOLLOW ACCORDING TO NRL AEROSOL LOOPER WITH SIG IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. REST OF NEXT WEEK...LOOKS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE UNDER MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SAHARAN AIR LAYER. TIME SERIES PLOT OF 950...850...700 MB TEMPS AND H1000-850 THICKNESSES ALL SHOW A SHARP RISE STARTING MON AND PEAKING ON WED WITH TEMPS LIKELY TO BE WELL INTO THE 90S. OVERALL...HAZY...HOT BUT DRY AFTER TUE UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH LAND BREEZE VARIATIONS. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. SQUALLY WX WITH NMRS TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY MON NIGHT. SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 78 87 78 86 / 10 10 20 20 STT 78 88 79 88 / 10 10 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 13/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 030157 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 957 PM AST SUN JUN 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR 35N 67W WILL MAINTAIN A TROF INTO HISPANIOLA AND PR THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO IMPACT THE AREA MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MODIS AOD PRODUCT...CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY AT SUNSET INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SAL LAYER OVR THE SRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PR MON WITH DUST HAZE GREATLY INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER WRN PR. HOWEVER...SQUALLS AND CONVECTIVE LINES CAN BE EXPECTED TO START ENTERING THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND EASTERN PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 57W. THIS SQUALLY WX IS SUGGESTED ON SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT FROM LATEST WRF-NMM. BEST MOISTURE AND H85 THETAE ADVECTION IS FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT. MODELS CONITNUE TO SHOW MOISTURE AND VORTICITY FIELDS SPLITTING AS WAVE ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW. I CONTINUE TO BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT PRECIP POTENTIAL FOR TUE. WHAT LOOKS CERTAIN IS A DENSE LAYER OF CIRRUS KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TUE. BEHIND WAVE...LARGE AREA OF SAHARAND DUST HAZE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WITH HOT HAZY CONDITIONS. AREA WILL BECOME UNDER STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OF BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION...SOME DUST HAZE TOMORROW BUT SHOULD NOT RESTRICT VISIBILITIES. TSTMS AND SQUALLS WILL START APPROACHING FROM THE EAST TOMORROW AND IMPACT LEEWARD ISLANDS...USVI AND JSJ FROM MIDDAY ON. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. SQUALLS ARE LIKELY OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND WATERS SURROUNDING ERN PR AND THE USVI WHICH MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT AND REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 77 87 77 87 / 10 40 70 70 STT 78 87 78 88 / 10 50 60 60 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 64/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 050815 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 415 AM AST WED JUN 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE ERN CARIB WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP TUTT OVR THE WEEKEND WHILE IT SLOWLY RETROGRADES. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. && .DISCUSSION...MAIN HIGHLIGHTS TODAY IS IMPRESSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER FOR SO EARLY IN THE SUMMER BRINGING FIRST SIG DUST HAZE EVENT OF THE YEAR. MODIS AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY AND NRL AEROSOL LOOPER SHOW HAZY SKIES TODAY BUT BECOMING CLEARER AFTER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SAT. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 41.5W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SFC LOW PRES AND HAS PLENTY OF CONVECTION AT THE H7 WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY SIG AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. IF WE WERE IN AUG I WOULD BE EXCITED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS WAVE BUT IT IS JUNE AND THE WAVE IS FORECAT TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT THIS WAVE WILL BRING STRONG CONVECTION TO OUR AREA SUN AS IT INTERACTS FAVORABLY ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT FCST TO BE LOCATED OVR HISPANIOLA. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES. VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER AROUND 05/17Z FOR TJMZ AND 05/19Z FOR TJBQ. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL REMAIN FM THE SE AT 15-20 KT. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. HAZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO 6-8SM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 78 87 78 / 20 20 20 0 STT 87 78 88 78 / 20 20 20 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 060830 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 430 AM AST THU JUN 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS...SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT. MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE ISLANDS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP TUTT. TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN. && .DISCUSSION...COMBINATION OF SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH SUN. AQUA MODIS AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE THICKEST DUST HAZE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA WITH CLEARER AIR EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE SOME HAZE WILL STILL LINGER TODAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME LESS HAZY AND CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W IS STRUGGLING WITH LOW-MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER LOW CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SEEN EMANATING FROM ASSOCIATED WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES. MODELS SHOW BULK OF MOISTURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUN WITH CURRENT AIR MASS NOT MODIFYING COMPLETELY UNTIL MON. BY THEN...UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A VERY DEEP TUTT LOW AND BE LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS TO INTERACT FAVORABLY AND GREATLY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON AND TUE. TUTT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MID NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST TO REACH THE AREA THU ACCORDING TO THE 00Z ECMWF. OVERALL...IT APPEARS WILL SEE ENHANCE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION NEXT WEEK DUE TO FAVORABLE POSITION OF TUTT. THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE REDUCED DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJMZ AFTER AROUND 06/17Z. HAZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SAHARAN DUST MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS BLO FL100 WILL BE FM E AT 10-15 KT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SOME HAZE BUT SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 88 77 / 20 0 10 20 STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 10 10 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 070811 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 411 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN. && .DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN HI-RES MODIS LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THEN EVOLVES INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH HISPANIOLA. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER TPW AIR EAST OF 60W AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WILL INCH CLOSER TO OUR AREA SAT AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH TUTT TO YIELD SCT-NMRS STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON. GFS 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT OVR PR. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA SUN AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS NOW LOCATED ALONG 52W. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD NW SUN GIVEN DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN WITH DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR ENVELOPING THE AREA MON AND TUE. AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTERACTS WITH DEEP TUTT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT NMRS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WED-THU AS TUTT FILLS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST FOR NEXT FRI FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A TRADE WIND SURGE AND ANOTHER SIG EPISODE OF SAL. && .AVIATION...-SHRA WERE OBSERVED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 07/10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20 STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 070819 CCA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 417 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN. && .DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN ON HI-RES MODIS LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THEN EVOLVES INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH HISPANIOLA. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER TPW AIR EAST OF 60W AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WILL INCH CLOSER TO OUR AREA SAT AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH TUTT TO YIELD SCT-NMRS STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON. GFS 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT OVR PR. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA SUN AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS NOW LOCATED ALONG 52W. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD NW SUN GIVEN DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN WITH DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR ENVELOPING THE AREA MON AND TUE. AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTERACTS WITH DEEP TUTT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT NMRS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WED-THU AS TUTT FILLS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST FOR NEXT FRI FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A TRADE WIND SURGE AND ANOTHER SIG EPISODE OF SAL. && .AVIATION...-SHRA WERE OBSERVED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 07/10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20 STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 071547 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1147 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013 .UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS MORNING DEPICTED AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS TO INDUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE WEEKEND. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...DEPICTED A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 50 WEST. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD PASSING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37 WEST THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY INDUCING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. && .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM AST FRI JUN 7 2013/ SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE AREA WILL EVOLVE INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN. DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THAT EXTENDS NE OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN AS SEEN ON HI-RES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM MODIS TERRA AVAILABLE FROM THE NRL MRY NEXSAT WEBSITE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WET SOILS AND CLEAR SKIES IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ERN INTERIOR AS SEEN ON HI-RES MODIS LOW CLOUD/FOG PRODUCT AND GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. AS LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKENING SAL AM EXPECTING VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS THEN EVOLVES INTO A TUTT BY SAT AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH HISPANIOLA. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER TPW AIR EAST OF 60W AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WILL INCH CLOSER TO OUR AREA SAT AND INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH TUTT TO YIELD SCT-NMRS STRONG POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION SAT AFTERNOON. GFS 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS SHOW VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT OVR PR. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN OVER THE AREA SUN AHEAD OF WAVE AXIS NOW LOCATED ALONG 52W. LOWERED POPS TO ISOLD NW SUN GIVEN DEGREE OF SUBSIDENCE. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN WITH DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR ENVELOPING THE AREA MON AND TUE. AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTERACTS WITH DEEP TUTT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA EXPECT NMRS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. SIG IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED WED-THU AS TUTT FILLS AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS FCST FOR NEXT FRI FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A TRADE WIND SURGE AND ANOTHER SIG EPISODE OF SAL. AVIATION...-SHRA WERE OBSERVED ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 07/10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT...AFT 07/17Z BRIEF MVFR CONDS EXPECTED AS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN INTERIOR PR AND SOME MAY SPREAD OVER TJMZ. MTN OBSCURATIONS AFT 07/16Z...MAINLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 2 KFT. MARINE...A SURGE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT ACROSS OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 77 88 78 / 10 40 40 20 STT 87 78 87 78 / 10 40 40 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 72/71  FXCA62 TJSJ 080820 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST SAT JUN 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. && .DISCUSSION...TUTT AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE MON PASSAGE AND AS TUTT DEEPENS AND RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVR PR LATER TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EXPLOSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NEXT IS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PR ON SUN...BULK OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PR BEING ON DRY SIDE. I WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS SUN. MOIST TROPICAL AIR THEN ENVELOPS THE AREA MON AND THU WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NMRS CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUE DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. TUTT WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WED WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING IN FROM THE EAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKES OVER THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALTHOUGH AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF IT THIS FAR OUT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVR THE TROP ATLC CURRENTLY SEEN ON CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND PER HIGH VALUES OF AOD OFF OF AFRICA ON MODIS TERRA AND AQUA FROM YESTERDAY. THEN ANOTHER SIG SAL EPISODE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI NIGHT - SAT WITH STRONG WARMING AT H85 AND VERY DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL RH'S. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TIL ABOUT 08/16Z WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN PR AND MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TO/AROUND TJMZ. WINDS ARE EAST 10 TO 15 KT AND 20 KTS BTWN 0 AND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 30 30 30 STT 86 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 50 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 080829 CCA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 425 AM AST SAT JUN 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL DEEPEN AS IT RELOCATES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. && .DISCUSSION...TUTT AXIS HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE MON PASSAGE AND AS TUTT DEEPENS AND RETROGRESSES TOWARD HISPANIOLA LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVR PR LATER TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EXPLOSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODEST MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. NEXT IS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PR ON SUN...BULK OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH PR BEING ON DRY SIDE. I WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS SUN. MOIST TROPICAL AIR THEN ENVELOPS THE AREA MON AND TUE WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND NMRS CONVECTION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUE DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TPW AIR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON EAST SIDE OF TUTT. TUTT WILL THEN BEGIN TO FILL WED WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING IN FROM THE EAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKES OVER THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OFF OF THE AFRICAN COAST. MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE IN TERMS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALTHOUGH AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF IT THIS FAR OUT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OVR THE TROP ATLC CURRENTLY SEEN ON CIMSS SAL PRODUCT AND PER HIGH VALUES OF AOD OVR THE ERN ATLC SEEN ON MODIS TERRA AND AQUA FROM YESTERDAY. THEN ANOTHER SIG SAL EPISODE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRI NIGHT - SAT WITH STRONG WARMING AT H85 AND VERY DRY LOW TO MID LEVEL RH'S. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES TIL ABOUT 08/16Z WHEN SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN PR AND MOVE WESTWARD TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TO/AROUND TJMZ. WINDS ARE EAST 10 TO 15 KT AND 20 KTS BTWN 0 AND 2 KFT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS TO 20 KT. TSTMS WILL BE MAIN HAZARD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 88 78 / 40 30 30 30 STT 86 78 88 78 / 40 40 40 50 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 111732 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 132 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI. TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD TUE. && .DISCUSSION...MODIS TERRA AOD PRODUCT FROM THE NEXTSAT WEBSITE SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AT ITS PEAK OVR THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEARER SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE OVER 10SM FRI. OVERALL...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON SAT...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT SO I EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO POP UP. MORE NUMEROUS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND AREA BECOMES UNDER FVRBL EAST SIDE OF TUTT. TUTT BEGINS TO FILL MON AND MOVE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION MON. ON TUE AND FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE THAN PAST FEW DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE. && .AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE SFC FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. && .MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SCT-NMRS SAT AND SUN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 87 79 87 / 10 0 30 20 STT 79 88 79 86 / 10 0 30 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 72/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 120008 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 808 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013 .UPDATE...ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO EASTERN AREAS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT OTHERWISE LITTLE TO ADJUST. && .DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PR ENDED AS QUICKLY AS THEY STARTED AND REMNANT CLOUDS ARE NOW GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LOW LEVEL THETA-E AND ASSOCIATED LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY LATER AS A BIT OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL EAST AND NORTH OF USVI AND SOME STREAMERS OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS INDICATE WE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY WITHOUT SHOWERS. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND MODELS SHOW SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ON FRI. && .AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE SFC FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF BAHAMAS RELAXING AND LIFTING TOWARDS NORTHEAST. RESULTING SEAS 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 132 PM AST THU JUL 11 2013/ SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRI. TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN. STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD TUE. DISCUSSION...MODIS TERRA AOD PRODUCT FROM THE NEXTSAT WEBSITE SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AT ITS PEAK OVR THE AREA TODAY WITH CLEARER SKIES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. SO EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE OVER 10SM FRI. OVERALL...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON SAT...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE UNSTABLE AS AREA BECOMES UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT SO I EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO POP UP. MORE NUMEROUS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS LIKELY SUN AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND AREA BECOMES UNDER FVRBL EAST SIDE OF TUTT. TUTT BEGINS TO FILL MON AND MOVE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS SO EXPECT A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION MON. ON TUE AND FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LIKELY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU NIGHT BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING LESS CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE THAN PAST FEW DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND SURGE. AVIATION...ALL LOCAL FLYING AREA WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER A DRIER AIR MASS. HOWEVER A DENSE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 7 TO 10 MILES AT THE SFC FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SCT-NMRS SAT AND SUN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 87 79 87 / 0 0 30 20 STT 79 88 79 86 / 10 10 30 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 05/54  FXCA62 TJSJ 200201 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1001 PM AST FRI JUL 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TUTT LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON. && .DISCUSSION...QUIET WX OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HAZE AND DUST BASED ON MODIS AOD PRODUCT. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE AGAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 79 89 79 89 / 10 10 20 20 STT 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 11/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 230754 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 354 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS...SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU TODAY THEN TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE TODAY AND WED. && .DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET TODAY UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODIS AQUA AOD IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DUST HAZE OVR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER US TODAY. WEAKENING SAL AND LESS HAZY WED. ON THU...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT WITH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI. WX IMPROVES SAT-SUN UNDER WEAKENING TUTT AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 98L WILL REACH THE AREA NEXT MON AND TUE. ALTHOUGH NHC CURRENTLY SHOWS 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS NONE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TC WITH INCREASING HOSTILE CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME EITHER. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HZ PRESENT DUE TO SAL ENTERING THE REGION TODAY. VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...STARTING AT AROUND 23/16Z. LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED LLVL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 KT AND WINDS 15 KT. DUST HAZE WILL RESTRICT VSBYS BETWEEN 7-9SM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 10 STT 89 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 05/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 231541 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1141 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013 .UPDATE...FORECAST INTACT WITH TRACES OF SHOWERS FORMING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER PUERTO RICO. 23/12Z SOUNDING WAS DRY...LESS THAN 33 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 6 AND 13 KFT. STILL LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS AFTERNOON HEATING PROGRESSES...BUT THESE SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER 6 PM AST. && .DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...BUT CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTS THIS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NOW SEEN NEAR 23 WEST. && .AVIATION...VISIBILITIES ARE 8 MILES OR BETTER IN A SAHARAN DUST EPISODE. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOMORROW. LLVL WINDS EAST AT 10 TO 20 KT. && .MARINE...SEAS BELOW CAUTION LEVELS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HAZY... BUT VISIBILITIES ARE ABOVE 7 MILES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM AST TUE JUL 23 2013/ SYNOPSIS...SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU TODAY THEN TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE WED-FRI. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE TODAY AND WED. DISCUSSION...VERY QUIET TODAY UNDER SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODIS AQUA AOD IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DUST HAZE OVR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER US TODAY. WEAKENING SAL AND LESS HAZY WED. ON THU...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS WRN PR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT WITH BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI. WX IMPROVES SAT-SUN UNDER WEAKENING TUTT AND BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 98L WILL REACH THE AREA NEXT MON AND TUE. ALTHOUGH NHC CURRENTLY SHOWS 40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS NONE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TC WITH INCREASING HOSTILE CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME EITHER. AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HZ PRESENT DUE TO SAL ENTERING THE REGION TODAY. VCTS/SHRA MAY CAUSE MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ...STARTING AT AROUND 23/16Z. LATEST TJSJ 23/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED LLVL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-20 KTS. MARINE...SEAS 3-5 KT AND WINDS 15 KT. DUST HAZE WILL RESTRICT VSBYS BETWEEN 7-9SM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 10 STT 89 80 89 80 / 0 20 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 12/10  FXCA62 TJSJ 240816 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 416 AM AST WED JUL 24 2013 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT THEN WILL BEGIN TO FILL/WEAKEN SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIGDE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL...STILL DRY TODAY UNDER WITH VERY LIMITED WITH ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR MOIST DEEP CONVECTION THU-FRI UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT WITH NMRS CONVECTION OVER WRN HALF OF PR. SOME DRYING SAT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH THE DRYING. TUTT ALSO WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH LESS INFLUENCE OVR THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS NOW FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WELL AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME TD4. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA MON BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL MON NIGHT AND TUE. WHILE THE SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING ONLY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SURVIVING OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING LOOK TO BE COOL WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR DAYS 3-5. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AS GFS SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR POSSIBLE MAINLY MON NIGHT-TUE. PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR MORE DETAILS INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN PR...MAINLY TJMZ...FROM 24/16Z TO 24/21Z. LLVL WINDS EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KT. && .MARINE...SCT TSTMS THU-SAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER TODAY AND BRING SQUALLY WX TO ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20 STT 88 80 89 80 / 10 20 20 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 05/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 241638 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1238 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013 .UPDATE...A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER... AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SHOWER COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS TUTT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL PR AND USVI TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 24/22Z. SHRA MAY AFFECT TNCM AND TKPK THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING MVFR CONDS. && .MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 18 KNOTS OR LESS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TOMORROW...AS TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM AST WED JUL 24 2013/ SYNOPSIS...DEEP TUTT WILL BECOME DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TUTT THEN WILL BEGIN TO FILL/WEAKEN SAT. UPPER LEVEL RIGDE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER THIS MORNING. DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. OVERALL...STILL DRY TODAY UNDER WITH VERY LIMITED IF ANY CONVECTION. CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THU-FRI UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT WITH NMRS SHRA/TSRA OVER WRN HALF OF PR. SOME DRYING SAT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH THE DRYING. TUTT ALSO WILL BEGIN TO FILL WITH LESS INFLUENCE OVR THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS NOW FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WELL AHEAD OF WHAT IS LIKELY TO BECOME TD4. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE AREA MON BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL MON NIGHT AND TUE. WHILE THE SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THIS MORNING ONLY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM SURVIVING OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING LOOK TO BE COOL WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR DAYS 3-5. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH AS GFS SUGGESTS SOME HEAVY RAINS APPEAR POSSIBLE NOW MAINLY MON NIGHT-TUE TIME FRAME. PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR MORE DETAILS INTO THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY TJMZ...FROM 24/16Z TO 24/21Z. LLVL WINDS EASTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KT. MARINE...SCT TSTMS THU-SAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT. INVEST 98L LIKELY TO BECOME TD4 LATER TODAY AND BRING SQUALLY WX TO ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 88 79 89 79 / 10 20 20 20 STT 88 80 89 80 / 10 20 20 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 23/25  FXCA62 TJSJ 011919 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 319 PM AST THU AUG 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS AND MOVE INTO HISPANIOLA NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK. SAL WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE REGION OVR THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...SAL ALREADY APPROACHING 60W THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON ON CONVENTIONAL VIS IMAGERY AND MODIS AOD PRODUCTS. AREA WILL ALSO BECOME UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF TUTT ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. IN ADDITION...AREA IS UNDER DOWNWARD PHASE OF MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND HOT TEMPERATURES OVR THE NEXT 3-6 DAYS. NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE OVR THE ERN ATLC. THIS WAVE HAVE PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS EMBBEDED IN VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE. MODELS HAVE TRIED PAST FEW DAYS TO DEVELOP THIS WAVE BUT APPARENTLY THE STRONG SAL LAYER AND DOWNWARD PHASE OF THE MJO WILL BE BIG INHIBITING FACTORS. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA WED NIGH-THU AND BE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. && .AVIATION...MOST OF THE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCE TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DISSIPATED OR MOVED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT SHWR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THAN COULD LOWER THE VSBYS. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. DUST HAZE WILL BE MAIN DOMINANT WX && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 80 88 82 90 / 10 10 10 10 STT 82 90 82 91 / 20 20 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 11/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 021856 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 256 PM AST FRI AUG 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL RELOCATE OVER HISPANIOLA BY TUE. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK. SAL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUN. && .DISCUSSION...DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST OVER PR ATTM PER VISUAL OBS...GOES VIS AND MODIS AOD AND DUST PRODUCTS. SAL WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH SAT WITH H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO SOAR TO 22C RESULTING IN VERY HOT AND/OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES SAT. TEMPS LIKELY TO REACH MID 90S. ON SUN...SKIES EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEARER AS SAL BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY MON...IT APPEARS SAL AND ASSOCIATED INVERSION WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN PR. HOWEVER...STILL LOTS OF MID LEVEL DRY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA WED AND GIVE US THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY FASTER THAN YDAY ATTM. GRADUAL DRYING EXPECTED THU THRU FRI. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA LOWERING VSBYS. LVL WINDS ESE 15 TO 25 KT. && .MARINE...DUST HAZE WILL BE THE ONLY THING SIGNIFICANT TODAY AND SAT WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEARER SUN. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT AND WINDS 15-20 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 78 90 78 89 / 0 0 0 0 STT 82 91 82 91 / 10 0 10 0 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 23/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 100131 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 931 PM AST FRI AUG 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL RETROGRESS TO THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SECONDARY WEAK TUTT AXIS MOVING FROM THE TROP ATLC TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND SAT UNDER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN AREAL CVRG OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND SAT. WILL LOWER POPS GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT AND JUST ISOLD SAT AS PW GETS PRETTY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. TUTT THEN MOVES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA SUN AND QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH WILL DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN NORTHWARD. RECENT MODEL TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO KEEP BEST MOISTURE SOUTH OVR CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON. LATEST BLENDED TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TEND TO SUGGEST THAT BEST WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT AND MON ESPECIALLY OVER CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHEAST PR. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TUE WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WED-THU OF WEST SIDE OF ANOTHER TUTT. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND BUT OVERALL WX CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL MOST OF NEXT WEEK. TROP ATLC AWFUL QUIET AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA TONITE BUT IS A STRETCH TO INCLUDE MVFR IN ANY TAF. SCT SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. WINDS BLO FL150 E 15-25 KT THRU SAT. && .MARINE...SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. && .FIRE WEATHER...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 82 88 80 89 / 20 30 40 50 STT 81 89 81 90 / 30 30 40 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 100900 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 500 AM AST SAT AUG 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ELONGATES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH JUST AREAS OF LOCALLY INDUCED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT. ALTHOUGH...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT BULK OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY MIDWEEK...WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TUTT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BETTER MOISTURE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT PASSING SHRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...VCSH WRITTEN ON TAF. SHRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT TODAY WHILE TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 10/17Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TEMPO NOT INCLUDED IN TAF DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY...VCTS WRITTEN INSTEAD. SFC WIND TO REMAIN FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. && .MARINE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH ARE EXTREMELY DRY AS SEEN ON RECENT TRENDS ON MODIS/VIIRS IMAGERY AND KBDI ANALYSIS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNDER INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. OVERALL...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST PR SAT AND SUN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG AT NEARLY 20 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 78 89 78 / 20 0 0 30 STT 89 81 90 81 / 20 0 0 40 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 25/23  FXCA62 TJSJ 140834 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 434 AM AST WED AUG 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BUILD OVR PR LATER TODAY THEN MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA THU. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MAINLY QUIET TODAY AND THU UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE ON WEST SIDE OF TUTT. STILL HOWEVER CAN'T RULE OUT A TSTM OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST PR TODAY AND SOUTHWEST PR THU AS STEERING WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM YESTERDAY SHOWS SOME SAHARAN DUST HAZE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC ATTM AHEAD OF FRIDAY'S WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 40W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DECENT AMOUNT OF 850 MB VORTICITY AND HIGH PW AIR AS ANALYZED BY GFS AND AS SEEN BY BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL START REACHING ERN PR AND THE USVI FRI MORNING AND COULD GENERATE SOME SQUALLY WX AS IT ENTERS SAL OVER PR. WAVE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS FRI ESPECIALLY OVR NORTHEAST PR AND THE USVI. THINGS QUIET DOWN A BIT SAT-SUN BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE AND UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE THEN TURNING WETTER LATE MON AND TUE AS ANOTHER WAVE (INVEST 93L) INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER TUTT. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE BECOMING A TC IN THE NEXT 48 HRS THEY ALSO SHOW WAVE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE DUE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR AS IT INTERACTS WITH TUTT. ANOTHER WAVE STILL OVR THE AFRICAN CONTINENT HAS A LOT MORE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO BECOME A STRONGER TC IN THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING WITH INVEST 93L BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR MORE ACTIVE WETTER PATTERN EARLY MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR POSBL WED AFT BTWN 14 /17Z-21Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE VRB UP TO 6 KT AT TJSJ/TJPS/TJMZ AND TJBQ...THEN AFT 14/12Z E-ESE WINDS AT AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS BLO 2KFT. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. SQUALLY WX POSSIBLE FRI WITH ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL WAVE. SCEC'S IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 85 81 83 81 / 20 10 10 70 STT 83 82 82 81 / 10 10 10 70 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 27/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 150830 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 430 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVR PR WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA FRI. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM WED SHOWED SAHARAN DUST OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OVR PR TODAY. TUTT AXIS OVR PR TODAY WITH ISOLD LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PR UNDER A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 56W. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE LEEWARDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST PR AND USVI AFTER 06Z. MODELS SHOW A SHARP INCREASE IN PW AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH VALUES INCREASING MORE THAN HALF INCH IN LESS THAN 6 HRS WITH PRETTY DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVR NORTHEAST PR. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY NORTHEAST PR WHERE SIG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY. MID-LEVELS DRY OUT SAT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR NORTHWEST PR UNDER A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING A TWO-DAY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SIG RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON TUE. TD FIVE IS VERY FAR AWAY MORE THAN 2000 MILES FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND IS FCST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEYOND DAY 5 TUE ACCORDING TO NHC/WPC OFFICIAL MEDIUM RANGE FCST. EVEN IF IT WERE TO IMPACT THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT FRI AUG 23. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 15/18Z-21Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFTER 16/00Z. ATTM...VCTS WERE INCLUDED IN TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 15/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST UP TO 2 KT...THEN AFT 15/13Z AT AROUND 10 TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX. && .MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE SQUALLS FRI ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT INDUCED SFC TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OVR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 82 89 81 / 10 70 80 50 STT 90 82 90 82 / 10 70 70 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 27/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 151427 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1027 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 .UPDATE...VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO AFTERNOON GRIDS OTHERWISE LEFT THEM AS IS. && .DISCUSSION...FEW TINY SHOWERS ARE PASSING BY THE ISLANDS OFFSHORE BUT ANYTHING MORE SUBSTANTIAL IS NOTED BY GUDADELOUPE RADAR (METEO-FRANCE) CURRENTLY 60W-61W AT THE LEADING PART OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THERE...BUT CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR. WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS AS IT ARRIVES FOR HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SURE TO INCREASE BUT PERHAPS NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST VERY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TOMORROW. && .AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA BY AFT AND ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA SOUTHWEST PR. TAFS TO REMAINS VFR THROUGH AFT XCP PERHAPS MVFR AT TJMZ. LOOKING FOR SHRA/TSRA TO ARRIVE AT TNCM/TKPK IN EVE AND TIST/TISX BY 06Z. WINDS BLO FL150 ENE 16-27 KT BCMG E ON FRI. && .MARINE...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL AS THEY STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KT/6 FT EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013/ SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS OVR PR WILL MOVE WWD INTO HISPANIOLA FRI. SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA OVR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH NORTH OF PR EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISCUSSION...MODIS AQUA AOD PRODUCT FROM WED SHOWED SAHARAN DUST OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OVR PR TODAY. TUTT AXIS OVR PR TODAY WITH ISOLD LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW PR UNDER A NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. FIRST FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 56W. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE LEEWARDS AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST PR AND USVI AFTER 06Z. MODELS SHOW A SHARP INCREASE IN PW AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH VALUES INCREASING MORE THAN HALF INCH IN LESS THAN 6 HRS WITH PRETTY DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVR NORTHEAST PR. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS/THUNDERSTORMS FRI WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY NORTHEAST PR WHERE SIG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY. MID-LEVELS DRY OUT SAT AND SUN UNDER BUILDING SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUT EXPECT TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR NORTHWEST PR UNDER A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. SECOND FEATURE OF INTEREST IS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BY TUE MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH ANOTHER TUTT FCST TO ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BRING A TWO-DAY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SIG RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON TUE. TD FIVE IS VERY FAR AWAY MORE THAN 2000 MILES FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND IS FCST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE BEYOND DAY 5 TUE ACCORDING TO NHC/WPC OFFICIAL MEDIUM RANGE FCST. EVEN IF IT WERE TO IMPACT THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL NEXT FRI AUG 23. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURNG THE NEXT 24 HRS. SHRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 15/18Z-21Z. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TNCM/TKPK AFTER 16/00Z. ATTM...VCTS WERE INCLUDED IN TNCM AND TKPK AFTER 15/23Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST UP TO 2 KT...THEN AFT 15/13Z AT AROUND 10 TO 20KTS...WITH GUSTS AT AROUND 20 TO 25KTS AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX. MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP TO 20 KT. POSSIBLE SQUALLS FRI ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT INDUCED SFC TROUGH. TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD OVR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 90 82 89 81 / 10 70 80 50 STT 90 82 90 82 / 10 70 70 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/71  FXCA62 TJSJ 221445 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 1045 AM AST THU AUG 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT WILL REMAIN OVER PR THROUGH FRI. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUN AND HOLD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION OVR PR TODAY AND 12Z RAOB SHOWS COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -9C AT 500 MB SO ANY POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING COULD YIELD A STRONG TSTM OR TWO WITH SMALL HAIL. NEGATIVE FACTOR APPEARS TO BE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES SOUNDER PRODUCT. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SEEM SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL FOR AN ACTIVE DAY. AFTER TODAY...LOW-MID LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE AREA. SOME DUST HAZE WAS NOTED ON THE MODIS AQUA DUST RGB PRODUCT FROM LAST NIGHT AND PSEUDO-NATURAL COLOR METEOSAT IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING BUT NOTHING THAT WE HAVEN'T SEEN SO FAR THIS SUMMER. ANYWAY...IT SHOULDN'T CAUSE ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OR AIR QUALITY ISSUES. && .AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS MAY AFFECT PR TERMINALS WITH A TSTM LIKELY AT JMZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DRYING EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. TSTMS OVER CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 84 80 89 81 / 30 30 30 10 STT 82 79 90 81 / 20 50 50 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 64/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 080834 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 434 AM AST SUN SEP 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY MON THEN YIELD TO RETROGRESSING TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC. TUTT WILL REACH PR TUE. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD THU. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING WITH STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING MAINLAND PR AND OUTFLOW BDRY MOVING EWD OVR THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. FOR TODAY...MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ONION-SHAPED LOW LEVEL TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILES INDICATIVE OF DOWNDRAFTS FROM MCS AND WARMING AND DRYING EFFECTS OF SUBSIDENCE. MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AS SAL ARRIVES. 08/0145Z MODIS TERRA DUST RGB PRODUCT (12-11 MICRON CHANNEL DIFFERENCING) SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN DUST APPROACHING BARBADOS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THAT SHOULD BE OVER PR BY MON. OVERALL...VERY DRY CONDITIONS ON MON. UNUSUALLY DEEP TUTT OVR THE CNTRL ATLC WILL AMPLIFY AND RETROGRESS TOWARD PR BY TUE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BEING A PRETTY DEEP FEATURE AS IT REFLECTS TO 500 MB WITH 200 MB HEIGHTS BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND COOL MID-LEVEL H5 TEMPS CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WHILE MOISTURE SEEMS SOMEWHAT LIMITED VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD COMPENSATE AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH SAL. BETTER MOISTURE IS FCST BEGINNING THU AS SAL DEPARTS. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS FORMER INVEST 98L LOCATED NEAR 16.4N AND 36.5W. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING WNW AND THEN DIVING WSW REACHING PR OVR THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AHEAD OF IT MODELS SHOW FEATURE HOLDING TOGETHER AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING SOME AS IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SOME ACTIVE WX NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIG LEFT OVER FM OVERNIGHT SHRA/TSRA WL GRDLY IMPRV BEFORE SUNRISE. TIST/TISX MIGHT STILL GET MVFR IN TSRA OR BRF IFR THIS MRNG IF CONVECTION CONT MOVG E FM VIEQUES/CULEBRA. WL INCLUDE PDS MVFR ACCORDINGLY. OTHW SHRA/TSRA TO BE ISOLD TDY XCPT SCT NW PR. SAHARAN AIR WL BGN TO AFFECT AREA LATE TDY...PSBL FALSE CIGS FOR TIST/TISX ASOS ON SAT. WINDS SFC-FL100 S TO SE 10-18 KT BCMG ESE NR 10 KT BY SAT AFT. && .MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT AND WINDS UP 20 KT. SCT TSRA MAINLY ERN WATERS. SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK IN ENE SWELLS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 0 STT 82 78 89 81 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 140820 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST FRI MAR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS...CDFNT TO THE WEST OF 60W EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG 20N SAT THEN DISSIPATE BY MON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. CDFNT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA ON SAT STALLING ALONG 20N WITH BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP BETWEEN 19N AND 20N. SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN MAINLY ON THE SOUTH COAST SAT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS. TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUN LEADING TO GRADUAL DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS QUICKLY MON THRU TUE LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP DRYING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ON THE SOUTH COAST MON-TUE AS WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH OVR THE ECNTRL ATLC. EVEN AS RIDGE WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEK...THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC KEEPING CONDITIONS VERY WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER NOT ONLY ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT ALSO ON THE NORTH COAST WHERE FUELS HAVE CURED. && .AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA AT TIMES THRU TONITE WI CHC OF MVFR IN THE SHRA...OTHW VFR. SCT SHRA OVR S/SW PR ON SAT AFT WI SOME OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLO FL100 E-NE 5-15 KT THRU SAT. && .MARINE...LOCAL AREA UNDER A COL THIS MORNING YIELDING LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR FLAT SEAS. NNW SWELLS EXPECTED TO BUILD RAPIDLY FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT SAT ACCORDING TO LATEST WW3. SCA MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR AMZ710. && .FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE GOOD RAINS SO FAR THIS MONTH AT CABO ROJO AND GUANICA WITH 0.82 AND 1.41 INCHES RESPECTIVELY...SIG LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN AT THESE TWO STATIONS PER LATEST KBDI READINGS NEAR 600. THE LATEST ERC AND KBDI INDICES STILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILES USING THE CLIMATOLOGY AVAILABLE SINCE 2004. THE OVERALL VEGETATIVE HEALTH ACROSS THE SOUTH REMAINS POOR AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING WITH HUGE AMOUNTS OF FUEL LOADING BASED ON RECENT MODIS NDVI IMAGERY. FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 84 74 84 73 / 0 10 20 20 STT 83 76 84 76 / 0 20 20 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 060820 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 420 AM AST SUN APR 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS THRU TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MID WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG TODAY YET TO COMPLETELY INHIBIT AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TODAY SO WILL MAINTAIN SCT POPS FOR NW PR WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF A T-STORM THERE. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY MON-WED LEADING TO RAPID EROSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS BECOMING ALMOST NIL. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FRI BUT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS RIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIG MOISTURE RECOVERY UNTIL NEXT SUN APR 13. SO A VERY DRY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS BLO FL100 WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ISOLD-SCT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLDS WITH FEW EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS DURG PRD FM 06/8Z-06/12Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR MAINLY OVR ERN PR FM 06/08Z-06/12Z. BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING PASSING SHOWERS AT LOCAL TAF SITES MAINLY TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER 17Z...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONSOF PUERTO RICO...THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TJMZ THROUGH 22Z. && .MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT THRU TUE THEN DIMINISHING. NNE SWELLS WILL PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO RAPID DRYING OF FUELS TODAY THROUGH TUE IN AREAS THAT HAD SOME RAIN LAST WEEK. BOTH CAMP SANTIAGO AND CABO ROJO MISSED MOST OF THE RAIN WITH ONLY 0.20 AND 0.10 INCHES FALLING THERE RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST KBDI AT CABO ROJO REMAINS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE WHILE AT CAMP SANTIAGO IS AN ALL TIME HIGH USING A CLIMATOLOGY SINCE 2004. VIEQUES RAWS LOCATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND HAS HAD 1.40 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL BUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES MISSED ALMOST ALL THE RAIN. COTTON VALLEY RAWS IN ST. CROIX HAS HAD 1.28 INCHES SO FAR IN APRIL WHILE CHRISTIANSTED ARPT HAS HAD 1.77 INCHES. HOWEVER...LONG TERM (30-DAY) DEFICITS INDICATE BOTH THE EASTERN PORTION OF VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX ARE HAVING SIG RAINFALL DEFICITS. IN ADDITION...RECENT VIIRS TRUE COLOR AND MODIS NDVI IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO ISLANDS REMAIN BROWN WITH HIGH FUEL LOADING SUGGESTING FUELS ARE READY FOR FIRE WITH HIGH SUSCEPTIBILITY TO BURNING. BASED ON LATEST GFS...RED FLAG CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BOTH MON AND TUE WITH FIRE WX CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT WED AS WINDS DIMINISH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 85 76 87 75 / 10 10 10 0 STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 0 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VIEQUES-SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND MONA ISLAND. VI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX. COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N. && $$ 10/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 220800 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 400 AM AST THU MAY 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 80W WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE WRN CARIB DURING THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TO THE ERN CARIB BY MID NEXT WEEK. SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO DOMINATE AT LOW TO MID LEVELS. && .DISCUSSION...AMPLIFLYING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVR THE WRN CARIB WILL LEAD TO HEIGHT RISES OVER THE ERN CARIB THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WWD FROM THE TROP ATLC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUN. AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST IS ALSO OF SAHARAN ORIGIN (SAL) BUT ANIMATION OF VIS IMAGERY FROM YDAY AND MODIS AEROSOL PRODUCTS SHOW THIS AIR MASS IS NOT ACCOMPANIED WITH SAHARAN DUST JUST DRY AND STABLE. JET CIRRUS ON THE EAST SIDE OF WRN CARIB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE NE CARIB TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CIRRUS MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY GIVE A FALSE SENSE OF HAZE OR DUST IN THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION APPEARS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WRN CARIB UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD LEADING TO MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT IT APPEARS AIR MASS OF SAHARAN ORIGIN WILL NOT ALLOW ANY SIG MOISTENING FOR ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS AWFUL DRY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. AFT 22/16Z...CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ. EXPECT SCT-BKN LOW-MID LVL CLD LYRS FL020-120...WITH BKN-OVC HIGH LVL. LOW LEVEL WNDS FM SE 10-15 KNOTS BCMG FL SW AND INCR W/HT ABV TO MAX OF AROUND 75 KTS NR FL450. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT. NO SIG CHANGES EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER...AS WINDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT. FUELS ON THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN AND ESPECIALLY VIEQUES REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING BASED ON A TERRA MODIS NDVI IMAGE FROM YESTERDAY AND KBDI INDICES AND COULD SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR RFW APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE CIRRUS/UPPER LEVEL MOIST PLUME THAT COULD BLOCK SOLAR RADIATION SUBSTANTIALLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 91 77 91 78 / 20 20 20 0 STT 82 78 82 78 / 20 10 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 02/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 050140 AAA AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 940 PM AST FRI JUL 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MON THEN WEAKEN AS TUTT BECOMES THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT WITH SAL ESTABLISHING THEREAFTER. && .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z AS WAVE APPROACHES. WAVE IS MOVING RATHER FAST AT 25 KT AND IS SURROUNDED BY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY SAL AIR. DESPITE THAT...HI-RES WRF NMM AND WRF-ARW DEVELOP STRONG CONVECTION OVER WRN PR SAT AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE SEEMS TO PEAK AROUND 06Z SUN WELL PAST THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM SO NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THAT. BELIEVE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO WAVES ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AND OF SHORT-DURATION. DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SUN WITH SKIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY HAZY AS SAL ESTABLISHES. SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED MON AND TUE WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY BOTH DAYS. NEXT WAVE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH. OVERALL...HOT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO REACH LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS AROUND 06Z SAT AND USVI TERMINALS BY 12Z SAT AND SPREAD WWD ACROSS PR THEREAFTER. T-STORMS EXPECTED AT TJMZ WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY. SOME LIGHT HAZE SAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY HAZY SUN AND ESPECIALLY MON. COULD SEE MARGINAL MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS ON MONDAY. && .MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20 KT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER MON. SEAS 4-6 FT THROUGH MON DIMINISHING 3-FT AFTER THAT. && .FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT RAINFALL SATURDAY WITH WAVE PASSAGE BUT THE RAIN WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND LIKELY NOT RESULT IN ANY INCREASE IN FUEL MOISTURE. SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG EVENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY MON AND TUE AS HOT AND VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER EPISODE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVES IN. THE MODIS AQUA RGB AND THE CIRA LPW PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS TRAILING WAVE IS RATHER WARM AND DRY AND THE MORE EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE ECWMF IS MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. SO...A VERY SIGNIFICANT RED FLAG EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ON MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 80 89 80 89 / 50 50 50 40 STT 80 89 80 90 / 50 50 50 30 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 05/64  FXCA62 TJSJ 250748 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 348 AM AST WED FEB 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND DRYING CONDITIONS. RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN LEADING TO SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY. && .DISCUSSION...ONE LAST DAY OF 'WET CONDITIONS' BEFORE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES FIRM CONTROL OF THE REGION LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING. AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME WILL ADVECT WWD TODAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...RIDGE EXPECTED TO TAKE FULL CONTROL OF THE REGION LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE TIGHTENING WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20-KT OVER COASTAL AREAS AND OVER WATER INTO SUN MORNING. RIDGE WEAKENS SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS TROUGH PATTERN BROADENS AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WEST-CNTRL ATLC INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN PROMOTING MOISTURE RECOVERY AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS MON AND TUE. TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA XCP SCT OVR NW PR IN AFT...YET VFR EVEN IN MOST SHRA THRU THU. FEW OBSCD MTNS THIS AFT. WIND BLO FL120 E-ESE 12-20 KT INCR E 14-28 KT LATE TONITE-THU. && .MARINE...ONE LAST DAY OF GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE WINDS STRENGTHEN THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND STEEP WAVES OF 6-8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SUN AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT AS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR WILL SLOW DOWN. && .FIRE WEATHER...VERY ACTIVE FIRE WX PATTERN EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH THURSDAY AND HOLD THROUGH SUN UNDER STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SFC AND ALOFT LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE FUEL MOISTURE AS RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE MONTH OF FEB IN MOST PLACES. GREATEST RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE BEEN IN ST. CROIX...SOUTHWEST... SOUTHEAST...AND NCNTRL PR BASED ON AHPS AND LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL DEFICITS THIS TIME AROUND ARE SIGNIFICANT LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO THE WINTER OF 2013 AND 2014. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR ST. CROIX WHERE 30-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN DISMAL AND MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY VEGETATION AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING. WILL ALSO COORDINATE WITH PR FIRE CORPS AND FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE ON FUEL CONDITIONS TO SEE WHETHER FIRE WX WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 86 74 88 74 / 20 10 10 10 STT 84 77 84 77 / 10 10 10 10 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 54/64