FXUS66 KSGX 051026 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 330 AM PDT THU JUL 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH BETTER DAYTIME CLEARING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... STRATUS COVERED MOST AREAS W OF THE MTNS...WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. MODIS TPW IMAGE SHOWED THE 1-INCH PRECIP WATER VALUES RETREATED TO CENTRAL/EASTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY AND FAR EAST SAN BERN/RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE MODERATE DROP IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF NEAR-ZERO 850MB COMPUTED LI AND A CAP JUST ABOVE 600 MB...WILL KEEP TSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...BUT SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AGAIN...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING SLIGHTLY LESS RH IN THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER...SO AREAS 3-10 MILES INLAND THAT DID NOT CLEAR WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON. IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE PACIFIC...BUT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALSO RETROGRADE WEST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NE US. THUS...EXPECT A WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY INLAND...FRIDAY/SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 8-15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT MTN/DESERT TEMPS WILL BE 1-5 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW DUE TO THE HEIGHT RISES AND THE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COASTAL EDDY...SO STRATUS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE. THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER UTAH...SO THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL HAVE GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. ECM/GFS HAVE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF TSTORMS OVER THE MTNS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE FURTHER INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY. THE MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE ABOVE 600 MB THOUGH...SO TSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE MORE ISOLATED...BUT WITH A THREAT OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE TSTORM THREAT COULD CONTINUE THROUGH WED OR THU OF NEXT WEEK...BUT MORE TROUGHING OFF THE PAC NW COAST COULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN US RIDGE AND HENCE WEAKEN THE MOIST SE FLOW THU/FRI. && .AVIATION... 050808Z...THROUGH 1800 UTC OVC STRATUS OVR WATER TO 30SM INLAND WITH BASES 1200-1600 FT MSL AND TOPS 2500-3000 FT MSL OTRW SKC. BTWN 1800-2000 UTC BKN-SCT STRATUS RETREATING W TO COAST...AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVR MTNS IN THE 8000-15000 FT MSL LAYER. BTWN 06/0200-0400 UTC OVC STRATUS MOVING INLAND 25-30SM WITH BASES 1000-1500 FT MSL AND TOPS 2000 FT MSL...AND CUMULUS OVR MTNS ENDING. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...MAXWELL AVIATION...BALFOUR