FXUS61 KRLX 280608 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 208 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR DRY WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS FEW SITES WERE OFF BY FEW DEGREES.AS A RESULT...LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE TWO TO THREE DEGREES COLDER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA. ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS ADDING LOW STRATUS OVER POCAHONTAS AND PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH COUNTIES. SMALL AREAS OF FOG EVIDENT IN MODIS SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL AT 03Z. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH 13Z. THEN...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY 15Z. 800 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH RIVER VALLY FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEING THE MAIN IMPACT EVENT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME CU ACROSS MAINLY WV...AND IN PARTICULAR THE MORE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE WILL DRIVE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE CLOUDS. USED BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR SATURDAYS HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE AND COOL FRONT LATE IN THE WEEKEND...COMING UP AGAINST A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST THAT WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT. MOISTURE DECREASES WITH ITS APPROACH AS SOUTHERLY INFLOW WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE FLATTENS OUT. THE END RESULT WILL BE TO DELAY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT STAYING WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL LINGER SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER SUPPORT IS SLOW TO MOVE AS IT WAITS FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW TO LIFT OUT. IN ANY CASE...QPF WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT BEST. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY AS IT IS UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP DAY TIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH COLD ADVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THUS...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER MAINLY DUE TO DECREASING CLOUDS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EWD MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT RULES THE ROOST THIS PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER. DAY 7 FINDS THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE E COAST...SO TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS PERIOD AFTER...A SEASONABLY COOL START. MODELS DIVERGE LATE IN THE PERIOD ON TIMING OF YIELDING OF UPPER RIDGE TO NEXT S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W. THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE TO LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN CONUS BEYOND DAY 7...AND OF INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION. FCST FOLLOWS WPC TIMING ON FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...WHICH STIFF-ARMS POPS THROUGH DAY 7 NT...12Z SAT. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS FASTER...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI AFTERNOON / FRI NT. THE SLOWER GFS PUSHED IT THROUGH LATE FRI NT...THE 18Z RUN MUCH SLOWER AGAIN...HOLDING THE FRONT BACK TO THE W UNTIL SAT / DAY 8...IN SUPPORT OF THE WPC SOLN. HIGHS CLOSE TO MEXBC/WPC AND LOWS BELOW MEX/WPC EARLY ON THEN CLOSE TO MEXBC/WPC EVOLVING TO WPC WHICH IS ABOVE MEX/MEXBC LATE IN THE PD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 07Z...AND TO IFR/LIFR ON DENSE FOG ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AROUND 09Z. DENSE FOG MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. BKW WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...WITH GENTLE WINDS ABLE TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION. LINGERED FOG/LOW CIGS THROUGH 13Z- 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL. FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. LIGHT NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT S TO SE OVERNIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DISSIPATION SAT MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 09/28/13 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L L L H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M L L L L H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...ARJ  FXUS61 KRLX 291057 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 657 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TODAY. COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR DRY WEATHER THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DESPITE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF RELATIVELY LARGER DEFORMATION IN THE MID LEVELS AND SATURATED AIR SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MID LEVEL DECK. OTHERWISE...POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE VERY LOW. HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS SOUTHEAST OH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...KEPT LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH DELAYED THE ONSET PER LATEST MODEL RUNS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. USED A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE...TWEAKING UP COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED NW OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z MON...ROUGHLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO FROM NE TO SW. ASSOC 500MB S/W TROUGH PROGGED ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE NOW KEEPING THE FRONT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH A CONTINUED S/SW WIND. UPPER S/W TROUGH HOWEVER DOES CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL OH BY 18Z MON AND CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER INTO WV BY 00Z TUE. THE LLVL MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE NW ZONES BTWN 12Z-18Z MON AWAY FROM THE STALLED FRONT. VORT MAX ASSOC WITH S/W TROUGH PUSHES INTO WESTERN ZONES BY 18Z MON BUT FLOW IS VERY WEAK THROUGH IT AND THUS LIFT ASSOC WITH PVA OUT AHEAD OF IT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WELL. DYNAMICS/FLOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE LOW/MID CHANCE RANGE WITH A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE NOTED IN LATEST NAM12. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. AMOUNTS OF PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. INHERITED MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK. MONDAY NIGHT THE S/W TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z TUE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM CRW TO CKB AND POINTS EASTWARD AT 00Z TUE SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY 06Z TUE IF NOT SOONER. WILL HANG ONTO SOME SKY COVER OVERNIGHT WITH LLVL MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE USUAL RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A GOOD BET AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS THAT DO RECEIVE SOME PRECIP MONDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOW 50S IN THE SE OHIO ZONES...WHICH PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. BY TUESDAY HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD...WITH AXIS OVER THE AREA BY 00Z WED. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY INSISTENT UPON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME TRAPPED LLVL MOISTURE IS NOTED WITH A CONVECTIVE DEPTH OF AROUND 5KFT. HOWEVER...WITH AFOREMENTIONED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER RIDGING AS WELL AS NO REAL CONVERGENCE SEEN ON THE RIDGE TOPS...AM GOING TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER VERSUS MONDAY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY MID/UPPER 70S EXPECTED FOR THE LOWLANDS. TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...LOOK FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY WED MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S LOWLANDS...AND WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TEMPS HERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER VERSUS MON NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EASTWARD MOVING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SOME INCREASED MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY GENERATE SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY AFFECT THE CWA BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AGAIN STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A MID LEVEL DECK ABOUT 5000 FEET EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES MANDATED AN UPDATE TO SKIES GRIDS. THESE CLOUDS PREVENTED FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...REMOVED FOG FROM FORECAST THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER TODAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DISSIPATION SUN MORNING MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MON MORNING. IFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER MON MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...ARJ  FXUS61 KRLX 060526 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1226 AM EST WED NOV 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A WARMER AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... TWEAKED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BE CLOSER TO LATEST SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES. INCREASED CLOUDS MAINLY OVER POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES AS LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED PER MODIS 1KM REMOTE SENSING. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 930 PM UPDATE... COOLED THE VALLEYS PER CURRENT TRENDS IN PART VIA BLENDING IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE ADJMAV AND THE ECMWF. ALSO ALLOWED LOW CLOUDS TO ENCROACH A BIT FARTHER WWD IN SE WV TOWARD DAWN. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. 630 PM UPDATE... FCST ON TRACK. PREV DISCN... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH WINDS TONIGHT...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. LATE WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL INCREASE POPS A BIT IN THE WEST DUE TO THE FASTER TIMING IN THE 12Z MODELS. WITH THE FAST FLOW...FASTER TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WITH EVERYTHING INDICATING MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAIN...HAVE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LIMITED TO NON-EXISTENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. WITH MODELS INDICATING 925MB WINDS FROM 30-40KT AND 850MB WINDS FROM 40-50KT...STILL APPEARS WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THESE SHOWERS...WITH 25-40KT GUSTS COMMON. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE HWO. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL BE A BREEZY NIGHT. AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE GUSTY 925MB-850MB WINDS MAY RESULT IN A WIND HIGHLIGHT BEING NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST THURSDAY...WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN END IN THE MOUNTAINS BY 00 UTC FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY COULD BE QUITE TRICKY. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WIND AND CLOUDS SUGGEST MOST OF THE GUIDANCE VALUES MAY BE TOO COOL...SO HAVE LEANED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON... AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. TEMP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ARE BELIEVABLE. SO...HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS STARTED TO EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THAT...COUPLED WITH WPC AND CPC SHOWING GOOD CHANCES FOR A DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER LEADS TO NO WEATHER FROM 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS THE CLOUD COVER...AS THE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEM IN THE VICINITY THAT MIGHT KICK UP THE CLOUD COVER SOME...SO THE TIMING AND CONSISTENCY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A PROBLEM. WITH THAT SAID...MUCH OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON THE CLEARER SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS QUICK TO ASSUME CONTROL. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RIDING ALONG AN UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. PBL WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TO ACT AS A SUPPRESSOR FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. EVEN CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS EKN UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD REMAINS VFR OR MVFR AT THE WORST. THEREFORE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS EARLY THURSDAY. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. FIRST SITES TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE HTS...PKB....AND CRW. THEN...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE THERE WILL BE ICE IN THE COLUMN SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING WITH DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE TO MIX DOWN H85 FLOW OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS. RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATE 25 KNOTS AT 3 KFT. EVEN IF ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...BELIEVE WONT REACH LLWS CRITERIA IN TERMS OF A SPEED CHANGE WITHIN A NARROW LAYER LATE OVERNIGHT / NEAR DAWN WED. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW MVFR CIGS MAY CREEP INTO BKW LATE OVERNIGHT / AROUND DAWN WED. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS MAY VARY FROM FCST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD DEVELOP AROUND THESE TIMES ESPECIALLY IF / WHERE SFC WINDS BECOME EITHER CALM OR VERY LIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/06/13 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/RPY SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...ARJ  FXUS61 KRLX 301014 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 614 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH ON TODAY. WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REST OF THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. AN OLD COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTH EARLY...WHILE FRESHER AIR MASS FILTERS FROM THE NORTH. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE AT H50 WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO THE MS VALLEY FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX SINKS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PA...INTO NORTHERN WV BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD ENHANCE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND PRODUCE SOME PCPN SATURDAY. WENT CLOSER TO THE ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HAVE DRY NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO OUR EAST WINDS WILL TURN MORE EAST THEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY. THIS MAY BRING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO SW VIRGINIA COUNTIES TO YIELD SHOWER OR STORM. ALSO HAVE A WEAK 500MB RIPPLE CROSSING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN MAINLY DICKENSON COUNTY VA. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO HIGH AND LOWS. BLENDED BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS AND BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY WENT WITH WPC THINKING. HOWEVER...CHANGES WERE MADE TO GRIDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY BASED ON MODEL DIFFERENCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL MID-LEVEL FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW DIURNAL NATURE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT GO FAR. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WPC TEMPS LOOK GOOD...BUT MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODIS 1KM SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV OVERNIGHT. SFC OBS SHOWS IFR FOG AT MOST PLACES...IMPROVING AT BKW TO MVFR BY 12Z. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FILTERS FROM THE NORTH TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-15Z AREA WIDE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING OVER PROTECTED RIVER VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...EXPECT LESS FOG COVERAGE AND DURATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ONSET AND INTENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY OVER RIVER VALLEYS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...JSH AVIATION...ARJ  FXUS61 KRLX 030605 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 105 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CONTINUING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS SEEN ON RADAR AND SFC OBS. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS TO INTRODUCE SOME CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH AND WV TO OUR NORTHEAST SECTIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 625 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT...SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NOT COUNTY AVERAGE. THUS...WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SHSN CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WAS MOVING THRU THE MOUNTAINS AT 18Z. THIS HAS BEEN SERVING TO ENHANCE THE SNOW...WITH A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE THE TROF AXIS PASSES. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS AND THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS FROM HERE ON OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR THE N MOUNTAINS GOING. ELSEWHERE...THE SHSN WILL BECOME MORE SCT IN NATURE BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WORKING STEADILY THRU OH AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH MANY PLACES SCT OUT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THE SHSN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO WIND DOWN AFTER 06Z. THE STRATOCU MAY TRY TO REFORM ACROSS SE OH LATE. THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RELAX WITH MODEST WAA ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF INTO NC WITH A LIGHT SW WIND DEVELOPING. TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED. OVERALL...EXPECT A GOOD RECOVERY S ZONES...BUT REMAINING COLD ACROSS THE N. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE E RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING A SWRLY FLOW OF MILDER AIR TO TAKE OVER. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SHOULD SLIP BY JUST TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA TUE NT INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW GETS DRAGGED THROUGH THE AREA WED NT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS STILL BACK NEAR CHICAGO AS THE SFC FRONT IS CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SPELLS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW LATE WED NT INTO THU. AT THIS POINT...AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR S...BUT THERE COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE N. WE DRY OUT THU MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC AIR TAKES OVER. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THU MET AND MAV FOR LOWS TUE NT...WHICH MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW. BLENDED IN THE MET FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER HIGHS IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED...THE MAV WAS HIGHER STILL. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD ADVECTION WED NT INTO THU...USED A RAW NAM/GFS BLEND WITH GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND THEN DERIVED LOWS WED NT AND HIGHS THU FROM THERE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE OPERATIONAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON COLD AIR BEHIND A SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR BEHIND EACH SYSTEM. THEREFORE...USED A BLEND OF THE GEFS/NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW STRATO CU...EVIDENT IN MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES...CONTINUING TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME CLEARING IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC OBS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO INCLUDING PKB. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THIS AREA FROM THE WEST. CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER LIGHT SNOW AT BKW...HTS...AND CRW. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 09Z...PERHAPS PERSISTING OVER EKN AND BKW THROUGH 12Z. VERY LIGHT OR LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIO: CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE VFR SOONER THAN FORECAST THIS EVENING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 02/03/15 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ