FXUS61 KPBZ 311727

AFDPBZ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

127 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012



.SYNOPSIS...

CLOUDS BREAK UP TONIGHT IN TIME FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CLOUDS

SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT

LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY THEN ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM

PASSES ON TUESDAY.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1KM MODIS PIC AT 1522Z REVEALS THE SHALLOWEST CU OVER NRN WV

WHICH LEADS TO STRATUS BECOMING OPEN CELLULAR THERE FIRST THEN

SPREADING N INTO SWRN PA. DELAYED CLEARING BY SEVERAL HOURS AS

SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOISTURE STAYING TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AT H9.

ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVNG THEN RETURN A

LAYER OF STRATUS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER I-80 AND NRN WV.

KEPT MINT TONIGHT AOA WARMEST GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE AS RADIATIONAL

COOLING WILL NOT BE THAT SIGNIFICANT.



NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS IN NW FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES THE

AREA SUN AFTN. INCREASED POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO

LKLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SREF PLUMES INDICATE

AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IS NIL

SO CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.



&&



.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVR THE MS VALLEY WILL STEEPEN THE NW FLOW OVER

THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONT TO INDICATE VARYING DEGREES

OF QPF AS THAT FEATURE PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WL

MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE USED A

GUIDANCE BLEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR

MONDAY.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WRN STATES TROF IS FORECAST TO DVLP TWD THE PLAINS/WRN LAKES BY

MONDAY NGT...PUSHING THE RIDGE ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY

BEFORE DIGGING AN EAST COAST TROF BY THE END OF THE PD. GIVEN MDL

DIFFERENCES...HAVE GENLY PERSISTED WITH THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM

FORECAST...BUT A BRIEF TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND MID WEEK CDFNT

CAN BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LONG TERM PD.



&&



.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 2Z. A BRIEF PD OF

CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEFORE STRATOCU RE-DEVELOPS AFT 7Z ESP AT FKL

AND DUJ. FOR AIRPORTS THAT DO NOT SEE OVERNIGHT MVFR

CLOUDS...EXPECT MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.



OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 

NO WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER EXPECTED.



&&



.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MD...NONE.

OH...NONE.

PA...NONE.

WV...NONE.



&&



$$



.SYNOPSIS...98

.NEAR TERM...98

.AVIATION...98