FXUS64 KMRX 132011

AFDMRX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Morristown TN

311 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016



.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Monday)...

For this afternoon and early evening...removed any slight chance

POPs for extreme eastern areas. Upper low and associated pcpn SE

of the area continue to move E.



Biggest immediate concern is with the air quality in the lower and

middle East Tennessee Valley. Observations in Knoxville and

Chattanooga coupled with latest visible satellite imagery and MODIS

high resolution polar orbiter all indicate a very widespread area

of smoke and reduced visibilities extending from SE Tennessee up

the valley into NE Tennessee...although no observations in that

area are yet reporting lowered visby. With flow in the lowest 3000

feet remaining fairly weak over the next 24 hours...do not expect

this reduction to visby and poor air quality to even have a chance

to lessen until at least late Monday afternoon when winds in this

layer may begin to shift more uniformly out of the west. In the

meantime, decoupling overnight will certainly trap smoke near the

surface and could exacerbate already poor air quality.



As the upper low southeast of the area continues to push further

east into Monday, high pressure settle in across the area. A rather

vigorous shortwave moving over Arkansas today will slide NE across

the area tomorrow bringing nothing more than some enhanced

cloudiness over the upper third of the area. Expect near normal

temperatures with afternoon RH values dropping again toward 30

percent...further reinforcing the afternoon fire weather hazard

across the area.



.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)...

Unfortunately, much of the long term period will be dry even as a

long wave trough hangs around across the Eastern U.S. through mid

week. There just isn't enough moisture for the production of any

widespread showers when a weak cool front builds southeast through

the Southern Appalachians early on Wednesday. Another strong upper

level ridge builds east across the eastern states later Wednesday

through Friday keeping the dry forecast in place. Finally, late

Friday night into Saturday a cold front will move across the

forecast area generating some rainfall. Some uncertainty exists in

terms of the intensity of the precipitation with this frontal

system, but of course, any rainfall is welcome. There is a small

chance that there could be a few more showers on Sunday as

additional short wave energy drops southeast through the base of

the weekend long wave trough. It looks like another mild November

week ahead with high temperatures starting out about three to four

degrees ahead of normal on Tuesday. The warmth continues through

the work week with highs topping out a good ten to to twelve

degrees above normal by Friday. Cooler air building in over the

weekend with bring us back to normal or below with highs in the 50s

by Sunday.



$$





&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Chattanooga Airport, TN             40  67  43  66 /   0   0   0  10 

Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  38  63  40  64 /  10   0   0   0 

Oak Ridge, TN                       39  63  39  64 /   0   0   0   0 

Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  61  34  60 /  10  10   0   0 



&&



.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

TN...None.

VA...None.

&&



$$