FXUS63 KMQT 130907 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 507 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011 .DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION WITH A TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THAT IS HEADING EAST AND THIS WILL MOVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW WILL COME ASHORE AND MOVE EAST AND WILL FORM A CLOSED 500 MB LOW. THIS LOW WILL HEAD EAST AND BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR THE AREA ON FRI INTO SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT MORNING. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TODAY WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG IT. MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THEN RETURN FRI NIGHT. GFS SHOWS THE SAME THING AS WELL. FOR TODAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND KEPT POPS AS SCATTERED AS THE NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE WORKS THROUGH. KGRB 00Z SOUNDING IS PRETTY DRY AND THIS DRY AIR HAS TO BE OVERCOME FIRST BEFORE PCPN WILL HIT THE GROUND. CHANCE POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. CHANGE I MADE TONIGHT WAS TO REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH AS FRONT GETS HUNG UP A BIT. LOOKS DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...SO REMOVED DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MENTION. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LOOK MARGINAL AS WELL AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GET DOWN TO -6C OR SO. LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 0C TO 2C...SO THERE COULD BE A FEW LAKE CLOUDS ONLY TONIGHT. LOOKS DRY THEN FOR THU THROUGH FRI BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM COMES IN. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. WENT A BIT WARMER FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY AS DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER EARLIER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP MORE WITH SOME SUNSHINE. STILL IS TRICKY FOR PCPN FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...BUT LATEST 00Z ECMWF LOOKS WARMER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DID AND IS MUCH CLOSER TO GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH ARE DOWN TO -4C OVER THE WEST HALF SAT. THINK PCPN WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE WEST HALF ON SAT WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN. FOR THE EAST HALF...THERE WILL BE SNOW WITH RAIN MIXED IN AS WELL. THE RAIN WILL CUT DOWN A BIT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...BUT COULD STILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 0.50 INCH TO 1.00 INCH QPF FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING OVER THE CWA. WITH A 10 TO 1 SNOW RATIO WITH WET HEAVY SNOW...THIS WOULD BE A 5-10 INCH SNOWFALL WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS A BIT HARDER IN THE HWO PRODUCT NOW. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR NOW FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM. ECMWF DEPARTS THE SYSTEM A BIT QUICKER SAT NIGHT AND MOVED ITS EXIT UP QUICKER. WRAPAROUND THEN COMES IN FOR SUN MORNING AND DEPARTS QUICKLY FOR SUN AFTERNOON. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY FOR HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... PER KMQT VAD WIND PROFILE...LLWS IS ONGOING (35KT AT 500FT AGL). IT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX/KSAW OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRY. -SHRA ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NE MN...AND SCT -SHRA/SPRINKLES SHOULD ARRIVE AT KCMX AFTER SUNRISE AND AT KSAW LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ALTHOUGH CIGS ARE STILL VFR WHERE PCPN IS OCCURRING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BY THE TIME PCPN AREA REACHES KCMX/KSAW. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT EARLY AFTN AT KCMX AND MID/LATE AFTN AT KSAW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOWER MVFR CIGS WELL TO THE NW IN MANITOBA/FAR NRN ONTARIO. DEVELOPING NRLY FLOW TONIGHT MAY ALLOW THESE CLOUDS TO MAKE A RUN S INTO UPPER MI AT SOME POINT DURING THE NIGHT. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... A FEW STRONGER GUSTS TO 30KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE ERN LAKE AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING UP TO 30KTS AS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR DROPS S FROM CANADA. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT...EXPECT GALES TO AT LEAST 35KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALES ON SAT NIGHT WITH THE LOW MOVING TOWARDS JAMES BAY. && .HYDROLOGY /FOR THE 4AM ISSUANCE/... DRY WEATHER YESTERDAY AND LIMITED REMAINING SNOW PACK HAS CAUSED MOST RIVERS TO LEVEL OFF OR GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODIS SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS SNOW REMAINING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PORKIES...KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND THE HURON MOUNTAINS. THIS LINGERING SNOW PACK...COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...HAS CAUSED THE TRAP ROCK RIVER TO RISE AGAIN AND NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. CURRENTLY TRENDS HAVE IT REACHING THAT STAGE THIS MORNING...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE. EXPECT THE REST OF THE RIVERS WILL GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN/SNOW THIS WEEKEND...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL RISES IN THE AREA RIVERS. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS IN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RISING WATERS AND EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVERBANKS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...07 AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 182015 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 315 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TAKING AT LOOK AT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT 19Z...THE NEARING SFC LOW LOOKED TO BE LOCATED OVER FAR NW MN. PRESSURE CHANGES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF -5MB ACROSS NORTHERN WI THROUGH WESTERN LS AND UPPER MI THANKS TO THE EXITING AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. KEEPING ON THE THEME OF PRESSURE GRADIENT...THE CORE OF THE 40 TO 50KT 950-850MB LLJ WILL BE OVERHEAD AT 00Z...BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING TO SE ONTARIO. STILL...THE WIND WILL REMAIN OVER 30KTS AT THESE LEVELS THROUGH 06Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR STRONGER GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS TAKE HOLD. WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE STRONG S TO SW FLOW...850MB TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REBOUND TO ABOVE 0C READINGS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM TO A MAX OF 6C INTERIOR WEST TO 1C FAR EAST. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEARING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. LIMITED COLD AIR AND SFC TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY DAYBREAK WEST HALF WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN WITH LIGHT SNOW. A FEW POCKETS OF SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT AS LIKELY. THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...AROUND 700MB...IS WAY ABOVE THE MOISTURE LAYER...WHICH IS CONFINED AT OR BELOW 850MB. CONTINUED A NON DIURNAL TREND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 30S MOST PLACES. THE WARMEST AIR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...AS COLD AIR DIVES IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO -10 TO -3C BY 15Z MONDAY /WARMEST S CENTRAL...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE SMALLER SCALE WRF RUNS ARE PICKING UP ON A STREAM OF MOISTURE HAILING FROM LAKE NIPIGON. GIVEN THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS IMAGE WHERE LAKE NIPIGON IS NOT CONCEALED BY CLOUDS...THE DEC 16TH IMAGE DID SHOW A FEW STREAMS OF LES SLIDING OFF THE LAKE...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ICE COVER. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE THEME OF HIGHER CLOUDS CENTRAL AND PARTICULARLY EAST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WSW SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WITH ONLY FLURRIES MENTIONED FOR AREAS NEAR LS FAVORED BY THE NNW WINDS. OTHER THAN SMALL TWEAKS...FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. .LONG TERM DISCUSSION /MON NGT THROUGH SUN/... MON NGT...ANY LINGERING LES OVER THE E WL END IN THE EVNG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS/SHARPLY ACYC LLVL FLOW UNDER RISING HGTS ALF. ALTHOUGH A STRONGER WSW FLOW WL DVLP LATE AS THE W-E ORIENTED RDG AXIS SHIFTS TO THE S...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATION CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LGT WINDS UNDER THE RDG MOST OF THE NGT/MOCLR SKIES WITH PWAT NEAR 0.10 INCH OR 40 PCT OF NORMAL WARRANT A MIN TEMPS FCST AOB THE LO END OF GUIDANCE. THE LOWEST TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL...WHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CALM THRU THE NGT CLOSER TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING RDG AXIS. TUE...W-E ORIENTED SFC RDG AXIS WL REMAIN JUST S OF UPR MI AND UNDER UPR CONFLUENCE BTWN NRN BRANCH FLOW THRU ONTARIO AND THE SRN BRANCH FLOW OVER THE LOWER LKS. AS ANOTHER NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/SFC LO/AREA OF SHARP PRES FALLS TRACK ACRS NW ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT WL BRING INCRSG WSW H925 WINDS UP TO 35-40KTS OVER THE N HALF OF THE CWA. OVER THE SRN TIER CLOSER TO THE HI PRES RDG AXIS... WINDS WL REMAIN LIGHTER. TUE NGT...CWA WL REMAIN UNDER THE CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN THE NRN BRANCH IN CAN AND SRN BRANCH FLOW/SFC LO IMPACTING THE LOWER LKS. ALTHOUGH COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC WL APRCH NRN LK SUP LATE AND SFC LO PRES WL LIFT INTO LWR MI...THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON TUE AFTN OVER AT LEAST THE NRN TIER WL DIMINISH AS MODELS SHOW PRES RISES OVER ONTARIO IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV AND PRES FALLS TO THE SE CLOSE TO THE SFC LO WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI. SOME MODELS BRUSH THE SE CWA WITH PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN BRANCH LO...BUT DRYNESS OF AIRMASS IN PLACE AND PASSAGE OF SHARPER DYNAMICS TO THE SE SUG GOING DRY FCST IS IN ORDER. WITH WEAKENING WINDS AND RESILIENT DRY AIRMASS...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL SHARPLY TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. WED...AS ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN BRANCH MOVES ACRS SCNTRL CAN TOWARD NW MN LATE IN THE DAY...ASSOCIATED COLD FNT WL ARPCH NW LK SUP. SPREAD CLDS/POPS INTO THIS AREA PER 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF...BUT DRYNESS OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...LACK OF ANY MSTR INFLOW THAT WOULD SUPPORT MOST PCPN ON THE COLD SIDE OF BNDRY...AND SLOWER SPEED EXHIBITED BY 12Z NAM/CNDN AND 09Z/15Z SREF SUG ONLY SCHC POPS ARE APPROPRIATE ATTM. IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WL PERSIST WITH CONTINUED POSITIVE NAO CONTRIBUTING TO ZONAL NRN BRANCH FLOW ACRS CAN. THIS FLOW PATTERN WL ALLOW MAINLY MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIRMASSES TO DOMINATE THE UPR GRT LKS...WITH TEMPS TENDING ABV NORMAL AND PCPN BLO NORMAL AS THE MSTR LADEN SRN BRANCH LO PRES SYSTEMS REMAIN TO THE S IN A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF EL NINO THAN THE ONGOING LA NINA. ONE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE TO BRING SOME PCPN TO UPR MI WL BE WED NGT/THU. ALTHOUGH SOME LES MAY FOLLOW ON THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AS ARCTIC AIR WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -15C BRIEFLY SURGES INTO THE UPR LKS...A WARMER PACIFIC AIRMASS WL RETURN ON FRI/SAT UNDER RDGING IN THE NRN BRANCH. LOOKING TOWARD XMAS DAY...ANOTHER AMPLIFYING NRN BRANCH TROF/COLD FROPA MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHSN NEXT SUN...ESPECIALLY IF THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE CAN LIFT SOME SRN BRANCH MSTR FARTHER N AS INDICATED BY 00Z ECMWF. COORDINATED WITH GRB. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/... INCREASING SW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE/INVERSION TAKES HOLD AND THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ALOFT. THESE STRONG WINDS AROUND 50KTS AROUND 2KFT ABOVE THE SFC WILL GREATLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 25KTS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z MONDAY /WEST TO EAST/. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP LLWS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGING WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH WINDS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...AS WELL AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR. EXPECT MVFR TO HIGH END IFR CEIGS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT /LOWEST AT CMX AND IWD GIVEN THE FAVORABLE NW UPSLOPE WINDS OFF LS/...WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z MONDAY PRIMARILY WEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC MONDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LS THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN THIS NEARING LOW...AND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SE...STRONG S TO SW GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS WILL SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE NW MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTER LS. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MONTANA MONDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AS IT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXPECT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND OFF SHORE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY. SW GALES TO 40KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND N CENTRAL LS. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS LS TUESDAY NIGHT..BEFORE DEEPENING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...BEFORE SLIDING TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ263. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ250-251. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 161012 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 612 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 A BROAD MID-LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING GENERALLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY FILTERED THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. INCREASING 925-900MB MOISTURE FM THE SOUTH COULD LEAD TO SCT OR BKN HIGHER BASED CU AS IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. MIXING AOA 900MB SUPPORTS HIGHS INLAND FM THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 70S OVER THE FAR WRN U.P. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS LAKE BREEZE WILL BE ENHANCED BY ALREADY PRESENT GRADIENT S/SE WIND ON FLANK OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 40S COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF UPPER MI WHICH COULD RECEIVE ADDED MOISTURE IN S-SE FLOW OFF LAKE MI. WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE ERN COUNTIES...BUT DRY AND WELL CAPPED MID-LVLS FROM FCST SNDGS SUGGEST DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR INITIATING SHOWERS. GIVEN THAT MODELS HAVE THE WARM FRONT HANGING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR KEPT IN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSRA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ERN COUNTIES. MODEL SNDGS SHOW MLCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT AGAIN MLCIN VALUES INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE SO NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT. WITH WAA IN MODERATE SSW FLOW EXPECTED...DECIDED TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO REG GEM VALUES WHICH SUGGEST THAT MIXING TO 875 MB SHOULD PUSH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOWER 80S FAR WEST IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SSW OFF LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS EAST HALF...FROM LOWER 50S ALONG LAKE MI TO MID 60S WELL INLAND. .LONG TERM...(AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT PUSHING N OF THE AREA THROUGH SRN CANADA. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES THAT WOULD BE LINGERING OVER THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LLVL MOISTURE. SO OTHER THAN MAYBE A FEW CU DEVELOPING BELOW THE STRENGTHENING H850 INVERSION...EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR LK MI AND E...AS THE FOG BURNS OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MIXING TO NEAR H850 WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S OUT WEST AND HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP TOWARDS THAT. WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER OVER THE E WITH THE SRLY FLOW OFF LK MI AND HAVE TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER SRLY WINDS WITH THE LOW IN THE HIGH PLAINS. MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN IS FOG OVER LK MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR AND HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PUSH WITH THE SSE WINDS. HAVE TRENDED THEM A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND...BUT OTHERWISE DIDN/T MAKE MANY OTHER TWEAKS. PERSISTANT GRADIENT WIND WILL LIKELY KEEP WINDS AND LOWS UP. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH MID 40S OVER THE E AND LOWER 50S OVER THE WEST. EXTENDED /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ANOMALOUS H500 HEIGHTS...AROUND 2-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-LATE MARCH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TROUGH OVER AMPLIFYING AND MOVING OVER THE SW CONUS WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE UPSTREAM AND LEAD TO CONTINUED WARMING UNDER SRLY FLOW KEEPING WARM AIR IN PLACE. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH N INTO CANADA ON MON AND START THE SLOW EASTWARD TRANSITION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MISS VALLEY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUES NIGHT. WITH THE AREA UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND SRLY FLOW...STRONG H850 CAPPING WILL BE IN PLACE AND KEEP THE AREA DRY. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY BACKING AWAY FROM THE COPIOUS LLVL MOISTURE OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS...SO EXPECT DAYTIME PERIODS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS FLOWING OVER LK MI/SUPERIOR...EXPECT FOG POTENTIAL TO BE THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE SPREAD THIS A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND OFF LK MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND TAPERED BACK IN THE DAY DUE TO INCREASED MIXING. CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON DEPTH OF MIXING...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S OR LOWER 70S OVER THE WEST AND 50S OVER THE EAST WITH THE COOLER FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN. AS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...00Z GFS ENS MEAN MERGES THE UPPER LOW BACK INTO THE FLOW AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE UPPER MISS VALLEY BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. 12Z GEM/ECMWF ENS MEANS DO THE SAME THING...BUT ARE SOME HINTS OF IT REMAINING CUTOFF A LITTLE LONGER. EITHER WAY...THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN TO IN ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCES FOR THE WED INTO WED NIGHT...AS THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS FINALLY MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PCPN CHANCES FOR THURS WILL DEPEND ON IF THIS BOUNDARY DROPS SE OF THE AREA...AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z ECMWF...OR HANGS UP AS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GFS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FOR FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BUT THEN THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRATUS/FOG FORMATION LATER THIS EVENING AS DEW POINTS BEGIN TO SURGE OVER THE AREA. THE BEST CHC OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KSAW IN AN UPSLOPE SSE FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 25 KTS INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE UPR GREAT LAKES REGION. VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A S/SE WIND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO RESULT IN PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER/STRONG STABILITY OVER THE LAKE. AT SOME POINT...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IF SOME RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...KEEPING FOG POTENTIAL LIMITED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THE REMAINING SNOW ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOW IN WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS LOCATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SOUTH CENTRAL IS WITHOUT SNOW...BUT MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN STILL HAS SNOW COVER DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE SHOWN SLOW AND STEADY RISES THIS WEEK...BUT SO FAR NONE HAVE EXCEEDED SPECIFIED BANKFULL VALUES. WITH THE REMAINING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN...STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SITES REACHING BANK FULL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 WITH THE VERY ANOMALOUS WARM SPELL WE HAVE BEEN IN...THOUGH IT WOULD BE GOOD TO SHOW WHERE THE NWS MARQUETTE OFFICE STANDS ON SEVERAL MARCH RECORDS. YESTERDAY/S HIGH OF 51 HAS KEPT THE 50 DEGREE DAY STREAK ALIVE...WHICH HAS NOW REACHED 6 DAYS. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR 50 DEGREE DAYS IN A ROW DURING MARCH STANDS AT 7...WHICH RAN FROM 3/24/1993 TO 3/30/1993. THIS SHOULD EASILY BE BROKEN WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD REACH DOUBLE DIGITS. WE HAVE HAD SEVEN 50 DEGREE DAYS IN MARCH THUS FAR. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR 50 DEGREE DAYS OR WARMER IN MARCH IS 13 AND SET IN 2010. WITH THE WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE BROKEN. BUMPING UP TO 60 DEGREE OR WARMER DAYS IN MARCH...5 IS OUR ALL TIME RECORD FROM 2000 AND WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 2 DAYS...THE 11TH AND 14TH. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 60 AT NWS MARQUETTE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MOVING ON TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 21.9 DEGREES FOR THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE...WHICH CURRENTLY RANKS 4TH FOR MARCH AS A WHOLE. THE ALL TIME RECORD IS 25.9 SET IN 1973...SECOND IS 22.4 IN 2010...AND THIRD IS 22.2 IN 2000. LOOKING AT AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES...THROUGH YESTERDAY WE ARE CURRENTLY TIED FOR THIRD WITH 1987 AT 40.6 DEGREES. THE ALL TIME WARMEST AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MARCH IS 47.1 DEGREES FROM 2010...WITH THE NEXT VALUE OF 43.5 IN 2000. WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...WE WILL LIKELY REACH 2ND ON THE LIST. TO MATCH THE ALL TIME RECORD...WE WOULD NEED TO AVERAGE A LITTLE OVER 53 DEGREES FOR A HIGH EACH DAY THE REST OF THE MONTH. THIS MARCH WILL LIKELY GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST EVER. FINALLY...THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT NWS MARQUETTE IN MARCH IS 44 DEGREES...SET ON 3/31/2010 AND 3/13/1995. THE WARM AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRY TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THIS RECORD TO BE BROKEN. WEATHER RECORDS FOR THE MARQUETTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE LOCATED IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP DATE BACK TO 1961. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS HYDROLOGY...SRF CLIMATE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 202340 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 740 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 ANOTHER INCREDIBLY WARM DAY FOR MARCH IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S/AROUND 80F OVER ALL BUT THE FAR W...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOCALLY ALONG THE SHORES AROUND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ONE MORE SUMMERLIKE DAY IS ON THE WAY FOR WED...THOUGH IT WILL BE COOLER AGAIN NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND ALSO OVER THE W WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SOME PCPN. NRN PORTION OF THE WARM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT BY SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THRU MANITOBA AND THE FOLLOWING WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/SRN ALBERTA. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SEND SFC COLD FRONT SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WED. ALTHOUGH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHRA COVERAGE WILL BE INVOLVED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING FROM WRN TX TO OK... MOISTURE FEED ALREADY PRESENT ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT SHRA. PER MORNING SOUNDINGS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING 300-400PCT OF NORMAL OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...STRONG/PERSISTENT FORCING WON'T BE PRESENT TO MAKE THE MOST OF THE AVBL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...HVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WOULD BE AN ISSUE. MAIN FORCING FOR PCPN WILL COME FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET SUPPORTING THE SHORTWAVES PASSING BY TO THE N ALONG WITH LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. EXPECT SHRA TO BE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND PROBABLY WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE COLD SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT. GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT...FCST WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW SE PROGRESS OF CHC/LIKELY POPS FROM W TO E TONIGHT/WED...AND ONLY AFFECTING THE W TONIGHT AND ONLY REACHING THE E LATE WED AFTN. GIVEN THE AVBL MOISTURE...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL...BUT AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...FORCING IS NOT STRONG/SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HVY PCPN. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND BECOME POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE LAKE. IF SO...FOG COULD BECOME AN ISSUE NEAR THE LAKE ONCE WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS WED. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM/SUMMERLIKE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN MOST PLACES ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S...15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 40S WILL BE THE RULE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/CLOUDS AND PCPN OVER THE W...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THERE WED. EXACT TIMING OF FRONT AND COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN TEMPS. FOR NOW...KEPT MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 50S/60S CLOSE TO THE LAKE. TO THE E...SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN FOR TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AGAIN OVER CNTRL UPPER MI...TRENDING DOWN TO THE 50S ALONG THE SHORE E OF KESC. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 CLOUDY WILL DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCLUDING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHERE DRY WEATHER AND A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST. INCREASED POPS FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH BIG BAY...WITH A WETTING RAIN EXPECTED /OVER 0.10IN/ DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR INCREASING SFC PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND A WEAKENING AND EXITING COLD FRONT SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. THE SFC HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO ONTARIO LATE THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE SW THANKS TO THE 500MB CUT OFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES OF OK AND KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SHIFT TO MO BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. HEDGE THE ONGOING FORECAST CLOSER TO THE STRAIGHT MODEL DATA TEMP WISE FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT THE 500MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FINALLY EXITING EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SFC LOW SHOULD LINGER OVER SE MN AND S WI FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING SE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TO W HALF OF UPPER MI FRIDAY...AND THE EAST HALF FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 20/06Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS PUSHED THE 500MB ABOUT 50MI NW OF WHERE IT WAS ON THE 20/00Z RUN...WHICH WAS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE CANADIAN/ECMWF CONSENSUS. EITHER WAY...THESE MORE MID TO EXTENDED RANGE MODELS DO COME BACK INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW BETWEEN OH AND NC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO PUSH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM SATURDAY ON. WHILE A FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL ONTARIO MAY IMPACT OUR WEATHER SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO BE ONLY A TEMPORARY SUPPRESSION ON THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHICH SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL LOOK TRICKY...WITH A COLDER BLAST OF AIR BOTTOMING OUT TO AN AVERAGING -1C BY 18Z MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS IS ALREADY BEING INFLUENCED BY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 4C /LOWEST AROUND 1.5C AT 12Z SUNDAY/. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE A RETURN OF COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL...TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ROLL IN FOR THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...IT SHOULD BE UNLIKE OUR CURRENT WARM SPELL. STILL...850MB TEMPS AROUND 8 TO 10C TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BRING ABOUT A BRIEF WARMUP. A STRONG MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF...AND SFC LOW CROSSING MN TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE FORECAST THEN INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE IFR CIGS AT KIWD AND KCMX. ARRIVAL OF PCPN TO BE DELAYED UNTIL VERY CLOSE TO FRONT BUT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WILL SEE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WITH STILL A LITTLE SNOW COVER LEFT AT KCMX PER LATEST MODIS IMAGERY...EXPECT IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP THERE OVERNIGHT. SOME FOG TO ALSO DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KSAW AS WELL BUT SHOULD STAY IN MVFR CATEGORY. AS SHALLOW COOL AIR ENHANCED BY MARINE LAYER ADVECTS INLAND WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT KIWD ABOUT THE TIME THE PCPN ARRIVES EARLY WED MORNING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT KCMX/KIWD BY MIDDAY AS FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS. AT KSAW...EXPECT LLWS AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP THERE OVERNIGHT BUT WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP VSBYS MVFR OR BETTER. OTHERWISE KSAW WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 438 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE WIND REGIME AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. ON HIGHER OBSERVING PLATFORMS...SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING MAY GUST TO AROUND 25KT OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH TYPICALLY HAS STRONGER WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. CLOSER TO THE WATER SURFACE AND DEEPER IN THE CHILLY STABLE MARINE LAYER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. SOME AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...ARE LIKELY OVER THE LAKE THRU WED...THOUGH THE FOG COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AND DENSE LATER TONIGHT/WED AS RAINFALL OCCURS OVER THE LAKE AND FRONT PROVIDES LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS E ACROSS HUDSON BAY TO QUEBEC THU/FRI AND LOW PRES DRIFTS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO 15-25KT. WINDS MAY END UP STRONGEST OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL ENHANCE WINDS TO THE W OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 20KT OR LESS SAT INTO SUN AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...RJT MARINE...ROLFSON  FXUS63 KMQT 170942 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 442 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 RUC ANALYZED H850 TEMPS OF -23C ARE COMBINING WITH LAKE SUPERIOR WATER TEMPS IN THE 2-4C RANGE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS EARLY THIS MORNING. BANDS OVER THE WEST EARLIER LAST NIGHT WERE VERY LIMITED ON SATELLITE...DUE TO THE DRIER LOW LEVEL UPSTREAM AIR SEEM ON THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING AND IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING STARTING TO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH HAS HELPED INCREASE THE LAKE EFFECT ON SATELLITE. IN ADDITION...WITH WINDS STARTING TO BACK TO THE WEST AT H850...STARTING TO SEE SOME SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE CLOUD BANDS ON SATELLITE AND ALSO WITH THE STRONGER BAND NEAR DEERTON. IN ADDITION TO THE BAND SEEN ON RADAR NEAR DEERTON...THERE ARE HINTS ON BOTH THE KMQT AND CANADIAN RADAR OF A STRONGER BAND AFFECTING LOCATIONS FROM JUST EAST OF GRAND MARAIS TO NEAR NEWBERRY. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH CLOUD TEMPS OF -30C ON GOES/MODIS IR IMAGERY. WITH THE COLD H850 TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE. THE LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE WINDS AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE LAKE EFFECT WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH THIS BACKING WIND FIELD...EXPECT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO SEE THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND A STRONGER WNW-ESE ORIENTATED BAND SETTING UP NEAR MUNISING AND THEN THROUGH NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND TOWARDS SENEY. THE OTHER TWO BANDS THAT ARE HINTED AT ON RADAR/SATELLITE WILL ALSO SHIFT TO A SIMILAR SETUP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE WILL TIME OUT WELL WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM JUST AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE WITH LAKE INDUCED EQL RISING TO 8-10KFT. THE LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE CLOUD ABOVE THE DGZ...SO DON/T EXPECT DENDRITES AND EXPECT THE SNOW RATIOS TO BE AROUND OR JUST ABOVE THE TRADITIONAL 20-1 VALUES FOR LAKE EFFECT. ALSO EXPECT THERE TO BE AN UPTICK IN THE LIMITED SNOWFALL THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THE SHORTER FETCH AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THINGS LIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BAND OF SNOW BETWEEN THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND MASS CITY TODAY WITH THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE. DUE TO THIS EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE...WILL LEAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS GENERALLY BEEN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE SNOW TO TRANSITION BACK TO A NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT ...WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE LAST 6-12HRS. THIS WILL JUST PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE WEST AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EAST. THEN AS WINDS BACK AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...EXPECT THE MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE CLIPPER...THE FAR WESTERN CWA WILL COME UNDER THE RIGHT REAR OF AN UPPER JET AND STRONG H850-700 WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A H850 TROUGH STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST WAA AND MOISTURE AS IT/S NEARING THE CWA TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THUS...WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING TOWARDS HIGH END CHANCE VALUES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NEAR KIWD FROM 09-12Z. TEMPERATURES ARE ONE OF THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT STORIES. HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE WEST...AND TO THE LOW-MID TEENS OVER THE EAST WITH THE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. IF OUR GOING HIGH FORECAST OF 8 IS CORRECT FOR OUR OFFICE...ALTHOUGH WE DID HIT 9 JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE THE FIRST SUB 10 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE SINCE JANUARY 20 2012. THAT WAS THE ONLY SUB 10 DEGREE HIGH LAST WINTER SEASON AND WAS THE CASE FOR MANY WESTERN CWA SITES. IN ADDITION...IF THE HIGH OF 7 IS CORRECT FOR KCMX...THAT WILL BE THEIR COLDEST HIGH SINCE FEBRUARY 11 2011. WITH THE COLD DAY TODAY...TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY COLD...SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH CLOUDS COMING FROM THE CLIPPER...COULD SEE SOME VALUES APPROACHING -10F OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL CWA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING FRI MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER TYPE LOW...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -2C ALONG WI BORDER BY FRI EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIOD /2-4 HR/ OF MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM HAS HEAVIEST PCPN DISPLACED FURTHER NORTH AND WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT GIVEN THAT THE BEST WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES DIRECTLY ACROSS UPPER MI FRI MORNING AND EARLY AFTN...TEND TO LIKE THE GFS IDEA OF THE MODERATE PCPN MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE SREF AND REG GEM SUGGEST. THE GFS AND SREF MEAN SUGGEST AROUND 0.15 INCH OF PCPN FRI /PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER/...MUCH OF WHICH WILL OCCUR IN A SEVERAL HOUR BURST DURING THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE IN THE BEING NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AROUND -13C IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AM THINKING THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE CLOSE TO 25:1. SO...A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WOULD NOT BE SURPISING FRIDAY. AS SUCH...HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS TO THE CATEGORICAL CATEGORY FOR THE REGION FRI. THE SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH FRI AFTN AS THE BEST WARM ADVECTION MOVES N OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST THERMAL GRADIENT STAYS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A MIXTURE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER FRI AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE CLOUD LAYER STAYS ABOVE -10C. BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER AND LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EVEN BE TOUGHER TO COME BY...BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS A CHANCE. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF BEING FASTEST AND FURTHER SOUTH. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. BEST MOISTURE STAYS LOCKED NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL KEEP THE SNOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL LIKELY PICK UP BRIEFLY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTN. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS CLIPPER IS THAT IT WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR THE ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -23C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP IN EARNEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT /AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH MID WEEK/. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN PBL WIND DIRECTIONS SAT NIGHT AS THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST A MORE N-NW WIND DIRECTION DUE TO A LINGERING TROUGH HANGING BACK OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT SNOW WILL AFFECT EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY MORE SO THAN THE MORE NW PBL FLOW FROM THE GFS. WITH THE EXTREME COLD AIR ALOFT...TEND TO BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE A LAKE INDUCED/ENHANCED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS MORE NNW. WILL THEREFORE RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY...BUT OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE REST OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOWBELTS. DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IN PLACE...COULD SEE HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE MORE TEXTBOOK LAKE EFFECT REGIME TAKES HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED /SUNDAY-NEXT WEDNESDAY/...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST. WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -20C THROUGH THE PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SOME PLACES FAVORED BY NW FLOW WILL LIKELY SEE CONSIDERABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION NEXT WEEK. FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN MORE W-NW BY TUE/WED WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS MORE SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW. THE 00Z GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD AIR MAY RELENT SLIGHTLY BY WED...BUT THE ECWMF AND GEM ACTUALLY SHOW A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TUE INTO WED. WILL LIKELY TREND COLDER THAN THE MOS GUIDANCE ON WED. REGARDLESS...THE PERIOD OF COLD FOR SUN-TUE WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST THE AREA HAS SEEN FOR A FEW YEARS WITH SOME INTERIOR WEST LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO SEE HIGHS ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY. IN FACT...CIPS ANALOG PROBABILITIES OF SFC TEMPS BELOW -10F EARLY NEXT WEEK IS GREATER THAN 70 PCT ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND PROBABILITY WIND CHILL VALUES LESS THAN -30F IS ALSO GREATER THAN 60 PCT. AS DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS SHIFTS...WITH THE LACK OF SNOW ESPECIALLY INLAND WE COULD SEE SOME PROBLEMS WITH BURST PIPES ETC. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 KIWD...MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES WILL PREVAIL IN A NW TO W FLOW. MVFR CIGS COULD SCT OUT THU EVENING. KCMX...MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO IFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THU MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER NW WINDS KICK UP SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO REDUCE VSBY. EXPECT VSBY TO IMPROVE AGAIN TO MVFR LATE THU AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS THE AREA. KSAW...BEST VIS AND CIGS SHOULD BE AT SAW WHERE NW WINDS WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AWAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONGER WNW WINDS ALLOW LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THU EVENING AS WINDS DIE DOWN AND BEGIN TO BACK MORE WRLY. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 438 AM EST THU JAN 17 2013 NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-30KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS OVER THE EASTERN LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH WINDS TONIGHT AND THEY WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW 25KTS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS MOVE THROUGH. BEHIND THE SECOND LOW...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES TO 35KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KTS WILL THEN REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WITH THE COLD AIR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ006-007- 085. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263>266. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 050804 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 404 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG STRETCHING FM SE CANADA INTO THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE N OF CLOSED LO OVER THE SRN MS RIVER VALLEY THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER WX THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 00Z GRB RAOB AND ESPECIALLY THE APX RAOB SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS UNDER THIS RDG...WITH THE 00Z H85 DEWPT DEPRESSION AS HI AS 24C/PWAT JUST 0.24 INCH OR 49 PCT OF NORMAL AT APX. BUT THERE IS STILL A RIBBON OF DEEPER MSTR SOME -SHRA EXTENDING NNWWD FM THE CLOSED LO TO THE S INTO MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO. THE 00Z INL RAOB SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE AND 00Z PWAT OF 0.83 INCH...188 PCT OF NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS OVER THE E...THAT AREA IS DOMINATED BY THE DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE APX RAOB. WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 10C...MAX TEMPS YDAY REACHED THE 70S OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ERN CWA WHERE THE DRY AIR ALLOWED FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND LAKE COOLING WAS ABSENT IN THE NLY FLOW S OF HI PRES CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THE DRY AIR ALF HAS PUSHED INTO THE WRN CWA PER THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SDNGS...ENUF LLVL MSTR LINGERS THERE UNDER SHARP INVRN AT H9 TO SUPPORT LO CLDS/FOG OVER THE WRN CWA FM THE KEWEENAW THRU GOGEBIC COUNTY. SINCE THE 00Z YPL RAOB SHOWS SOME MSTR BTWN H9-825 EVEN CLOSE TO THE ONTARIO HI CENTER...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF LO CLD EXTENDING WELL N OF LK SUP TO THE HI PRES RDG AXIS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LO CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS. POTENTIAL FOR LOW RH OVER THE E/IMPACT ON FIRE WX CONCERNS THIS AFTN IS THE FOCUS THERE. TODAY...UPR RDG AXIS/MID LVL DRY AIR WL REMAIN DOMINANT. ALTHOUGH SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY S TOWARD LK SUP...THE NNW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS HI...ALBEIT LGT...WL LIKELY ACT TO HOLD LO CLDS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DESPITE THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING THAT WOULD NORMALLY MIX OUT THIS LLVL MSTR. IN FACT...COOL ADVECTION OFF THE CHILLY WATERS OF LK SUP WL TEND TO OFFSET THE DIURNAL HEATING AND MAINTAIN A LLVL INVRN/POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTENT LO CLDS IN THIS AREA AS HI TEMPS HOLD IN THE 40S NEAR THE SHORE. OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA...A LGT S FLOW WL PREVAIL ARND SFC HI PRES OVER SE ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE MODERATION NEAR THE BAY OF GREEN BAY/ LK MI WITH A LK BREEZE...H85 TEMPS NEAR 10C/MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM/ GFS FCST SDNGS WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE SUPPORT HI TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AWAY FM THE LK COOLING. WITH SFC DEWPTS MIXING OUT TOWARD 35 OVER THE INTERIOR...MIN RH WL LIKELY FALL AS LO AS ABOUT 25 PCT. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS WL BE LGT...SO NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. TONIGHT...WITH HI PRES FCST TO SHIFT OVHD AND LGT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S...FALLING MOST SHARPLY OVER THE E AND SCENTRAL...WHERE MUCH DRIER AIR /PWAT NEAR 0.5 INCH/ WL LINGER. SINCE MORE LLVL MSTR WL BE LINGERNING OVER THE W/NCENTRAL... RETAINED A MENTION OF FOG IN THIS AREA OVERNGT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 WITH THE CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN CANADA...A QUIET START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH BASED DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST DUE TO A POCKET OF 800-750MB MOISTURE. A FEW MODELS HINT AT SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH THE HIGH BASES AND LIMITED MOISTURE KEEPING MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 150 J/KG...THINK IT WILL JUST BE CU. THE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MIXING...TO 800-775MB...AND LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LAKE BREEZES ON BOTH DAYS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. DID TRY TO MIX OUT DEWPOINTS A LITTLE MORE THAN THE MODELS HAVE INDICATED BASED OFF WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. FORTUNATELY...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE HIGH...IT WILL LIMIT FIRE WX CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST EVEN THOUGH FFMC VALUES ARE ON THE INCREASE AND ARE OR BECOMING HIGH. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE KEWEENAW AND INTERIOR WEST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LOW LEVEL COOLING BY LINGERING SNOW COVER. FARTHER EAST...DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL. OVER THE GREAT LAKES...MODELS ARE HINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS ON MONDAY. BUT DEWPOINTS AREN/T EXTREMELY HIGH AND WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IT WON/T GET MUCH HELP FROM THE LAND. WITH THAT BEING SAID...IF IT DOES DEVELOP...THE LIGHT WINDS WOULD LEAD TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND IT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD AT THIS POINT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST SLIDES INTO THE PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND PRODUCES A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL TRY TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...IT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. BUT THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM KEEP THE MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE 18Z GFS PULLS IT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LATEST 00Z GFS/GEM RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF IDEA. BASED ON THE EXISTING DRY AIR MASS AND LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...WOULD TEND TO SIDE WITH THE DRIER IDEA AND WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHTS OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN. BUT AGAIN...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE CONCERN FOR THAT PERIOD UNLESS THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WED INTO SATURDAY LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT STILL NORMAL OR VERY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK TODAY WITH LIFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS IN FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...AND RESIDES OVER THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY THE AFTN. LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL LEAD TO LAKE BREEZES AT ALL SITES. LIGHT WINDS AND CONTINUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR LGT FOG AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY STAYING BELOW 25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SETUP OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK AND LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. THEN...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT BUT ONLY 10-20KT WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH THE WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013 HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS...UNTIL THE REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY TODAY STILL SHOWS SNOW REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. FARTHER WEST...THE 10 PLUS INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF RISING RIVER LEVELS IN PLACE. DID SEE RISES AT SOME OF THE SITES OVER THE WEST /RKLM4 AND ESPECIALLY TRRM4/ WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND CHASSELL...THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AROUND WITCH LAKE...AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS WILL REMAIN CONCERNS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IN THE CASE OF THE MICHIGAMME RIVER PERHAPS WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. BUT OTHERWISE RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN DESPITE SOME RECENT HEAVY PRECIP THAT IMPACTED MAINLY THE W HALF OF UPR MI. FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...JLA MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 060756 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 356 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG STRETCHING FM THE NE CONUS W INTO THE UPR GRT LKS TO THE N OF CUTOFF LO OVER THE SE CONUS. VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS... WHICH SHOW A PWAT ARND 0.25 INCH OR 50 PCT OF NORMAL...DOMINATES THE CWA. SO SKIES ARE MOCLR EXCEPT FOR SOME HI CLDS. SFC HI PRES IS CENTERED NEAR WRN LK SUP...AND SOME LO CLDS/FOG ARE APRNT OVER WRN LK SUP NEAR THE W COAST OF UPR MI CLOSER TO MOISTER AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. DESPITE THE LGT WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING TOWARD 30 CLOSER TO THIS MSTR...NO FOG HAS YET FORMED OVER WRN UPR MI AS OF FCST ISSUANCE. TODAY/TNGT...UPR RDG IS FCST TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU THIS TIME WITH SFC HI PRES REMAINING NEARLY STNRY OVER LK SUP. WITH DRY AIRMASS ALSO LINGERING...THE ONLY MAJOR CONCERNS ARE TEMPS...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MRNG/TNGT...AND POTENTIAL LOW RH THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E HALF CLOSER TO CORE OF DRY AIRMASS. BEST CHC FOR FOG EARLY THIS MRNG WL BE OVER THE INTERIOR W...CLOSER TO AREA OF FOG/ LO CLD STRETCHING FM THE W SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW DOWN TOWARD IWD/ASX. ANY FOG THAT DOES DVLP SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT AT 9-10C AGAIN TODAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YDAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND W NEAR LK SUP...WHERE A WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW THAN YDAY WL LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF LK MODERATION. SO ALTHOUGH TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE IN THIS AREA MIGHT HAVE A HARD TIME TOPPING 50...MUCH OF THE NCENTRAL AND W WL BE WARMER THAN YDAY. MIXING TO H8-85 ON NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS UP TO 70-75 OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LOCAL LK BREEZE MODERATION. PREFER THE DRIER LOOK TO THE NAM FCST SDNGS GIVEN BONE DRY GRB/APX RAOBS. DEEP MIXING ON THESE FCST SDNGS SUG DEWPTS WL MIX OUT AS LO AS 30 TO 35 OVER THE INTERIOR DURING PEAK HEATING...LOWERING MIN RH AS LO AS 20-25 PCT. THE BEST CHC FOR THE LOWER DEWPTS WL BE OVER THE E WHERE THE GROUND IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAN OVER THE W/CENTRAL. FORTUNATELY WINDS WL BE LGT...SO NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. FOR TNGT...WITH LGT WINDS AND DRY AIRMASS LINGERING...EXPECT A HEALTHY DROP OF TEMP. PREFER TO TEND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS...BUT MODERATING AIRMASS SUGGESTS TEMPS TNGT WL NOT BE AS CHILLY AS EARLY THIS MRNG. SINCE FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO FORM THIS MRNG AND THE LLVLS TNGT WL LIKELY TO BE AS DRY...OPTED TO REMOVE FOG FM THE FCST. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 THE QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS DUAL CUTOFF LOWS /ONE OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE OTHER NEAR CALIFORNIA/ KEEP THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM JET RUNNING WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP TO THE NORTH FOR THE TIME BEING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL HINTS OF SOME HIGH-BASED DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WITH THE DEEP MIXING...EXPECT ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY OVER THE CWA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXCEPT WHERE LAKE BREEZES KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION MAY KEEP THE WEST HALF A LITTLE COOLER. DID TREND DEWPOINTS DOWN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST BASED OFF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE GOOD MIXING THOSE DAYS...RH VALUES FELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME FOR TUESDAY. THAT IDEA MATCHES MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE MODELS AND TRENDED THAT DIRECTION. THE FIRST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL COME LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PRODUCING A LOW THAT SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST IMPACT IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE MOISTURE AND SMALL CLOSED PIECE OF ENERGY THAT TRIES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THIS INTERACTION AND PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY IN THE QPF AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS POP/QPF DURING THIS PERIOD AND HAVE SLIGHTS OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DROPS OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND LEAD TO DRY BUT COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. A MUCH STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE WAVE...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN...AS THE COLDEST AIR DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS. WITH THE BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS FOR THIS WAVE...HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S FOR SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERNS THE EAST COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON SUNDAY AND ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT COOL BUT THEN WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA HAS LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT DESPITE DECENT ANTECEDENT MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE SNOWMELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION. WHILE FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE RESTRICTED BELOW MVFR...EXCEPT AT IWD WHERE IFR CONDITIONS MAY RESULT CLOSER TO FOG ALREADY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING THE THREE TAF SITES UNDER VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 0Z TUESDAY. LATEST NAM ON BUFKIT SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REDEVELOPING AT KCMX AFTER 0Z TUESDAY...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY STAYING BELOW 25KTS. HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS SETUP OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS. THEN...A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT BUT ONLY 10-20KT WINDS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAY 6 2013 HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN OVER THE COMING DAYS...UNTIL THE REMAINING SNOW PACK MELTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY YESTERDAY STILL SHOWS SNOW REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DID SEE RISES AT SOME OF THE SITES OVER THE WEST /ESPECIALLY TRRM4/ WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE REMAINING SNOW IS GONE. AT THIS TIME...WOULD THINK TRRM4 WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR REACHING ADVISORY OR FLOOD STAGE FROM THIS ADDITIONAL MELT. OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FLOODING ON THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND CHASSELL...THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AROUND WITCH LAKE...AND THE PAINT RIVER NEAR CRYSTAL FALLS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REST RIVER LEVELS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...RJT/KC MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 070819 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 419 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW W-E ORIENTED UPR RDG STRETCHING ALONG THE US/CNDN BORDER TO THE N OF CLOSED UPR LOWS OVER THE SE CONUS AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE CA COAST. AT THE SFC... HI PRES IS CENTERED OVER LK SUP...AND WINDS ARE NEAR CALM UNDER SLACK PRES GRADIENT. WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB...WHERE PWAT WAS ONLY 0.15 INCH OR 27 PCT OF NORMAL...QUIET WX DOMINATES THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME HI CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL...BUT OTRW SKIES ARE CLR. DRY HI PRES IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE UPR LKS TDAY/TNGT...SO QUIET WX/MOCLR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE. MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS/HOW LO MIN RH WL FALL THIS AFTN. ANY SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE INTERIOR W EARLY THIS MRNG WL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE. WITH H85 TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE 10-11C RANGE...ABOUT THE SAME OR 1C HIER THAN YDAY...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED ON MON. DEEP MIXING TO H75 ON FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FM LK MODERATION. ONE DIFFERENCE IS THE H925 FLOW IS FCST TO BE A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE S-SE THAN YDAY AND UP TO 10 KTS WITH HI CENTER SHIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E. AS A RESULT...LK MODERATION OFF LK SUP SHOULD NOT PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS ON MON. ON THE OTHER HAND...MODERATION OFF LK MI WL BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. AWAY FM LK COOLING/ MOISTENING...THE DEEP MIXING WL ALLOW SFC DEWPTS TO FALL TO ARND 30 THIS AFTN...RESULTING IN MIN RH ARND 20 PCT. SINCE WINDS SHOULD BE NO HIER THAN ABOUT 10 MPH...NO FIRE WX HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. CONTINUED AIRMASS MODERATION...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER S WIND...AND THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST TO RISE TO NEAR 0.75 INCH BY 12Z WED...WL CONSPIRE TO KEEP MIN TEMPS TNGT HIER THAN THIS MRNG. THE DIFFERENCE SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W CLOSER TO THE INCOMING MOISTER AIR. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 LIMITED CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FROM 24HRS AGO. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY UNDER WILL BEGIN TO LOOSEN IT/S GRIP ON THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE PROVIDING ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...BUT LAKE BREEZES WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION FROM THE DIURNAL CU OVER THE WESTERN CWA IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE BASED OFF THE MOISTURE BEING FOCUSED ABOVE 6-7KFT. WITH THE HIGH BASED CLOUDS AND THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THE VERY LOW LEVELS ARE TRYING TO OVER MOISTEN THE SURFACE...WHICH INCREASES THE SFC BASED CAPE TOWARDS 500-750 J/KG. LOOKING AT MLCAPE...THAT DRY AIR CUTS BACK CAPE VALUES TO 50-250 J/KG AND WITH THE OTHER NEGATIVE VALUES...WILL CUT BACK POPS TO SLIGHTS OVER THE FAR WEST. ALSO FOR WEDNESDAY...LOWERED DEWPOINTS BASED OFF DRIER AIR HOLDING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST. FORTUNATELY...THE WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT AND BE THE STRONGEST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LAKE BREEZES. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PUSHING EAST FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITH THE MOISTURE FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE COLD FRONT...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST...WITH LOW END LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE VALUES FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE /LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH/ UNLESS THE SHORTWAVE IS FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WHICH ALLOW FOR GREATER INTERACTION BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT /850MB TEMPS AROUND 2-4C/ WOULD EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS. STRONG NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...WOULD EXPECT A NICE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE BACK SIDE OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD TURN OVER TO SNOW AND WILL CONTINUE THAT MENTION. WITH THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...DUE TO THE SFC-700MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-8.5 C/KM. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW ALOFT AND P-TYPE AT THE SURFACE DEPENDS ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER...BUT WITH THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND INVERTED V LOOK TO THE SOUNDING...OPTED TO UTILIZE THE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHT FOR RAIN/SNOW LINE. THIS PLACES A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTH AND RAIN OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...IT MAY END UP BEING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWN TOWARDS RAW MODEL DATA...SINCE MOS TREND TOWARDS NORMAL IS BIASING THE COLD TEMPS. THIS PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AND UPPER 40S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...25-30KTS...IT WILL NOT FEEL LIKE A MID MAY DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. COULD EVEN BE A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST. DECENT SFC-775MB DELTA-T VALUES...BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS POINT WITH AN INVERTED V LOOK BELOW THE CLOUD BASE AND WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY AND PULL THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THUS...EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND A DRY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S OVER THE EAST AND MID 40S OVER THE WEST DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SWEEP A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD BRUSH THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THIS TAF PERIOD WITH DRY HIGH PRES DOMINATING. SOME FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP AT KIWD AND KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT BRIEF IFR COULD OCCUR AS WELL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING IN THE 15-25KT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND DIMINISH THE WINDS. BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20-30KTS ON SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 7 2013 HYDROLOGY CONCERNS REMAIN FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH WITH THE DWINDLING SNOW PACK OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY YESTERDAY STILL SHOWS SNOW REMAINING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE LATEST SNOW DEPTH OBSERVATIONS /FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING AROUND 8AM/ STILL HAVE AROUND 3IN AT IRONWOOD...AND 7IN AT ATLANTIC MINE. A FEW POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. DID SEE RISES AT SOME OF THE SITES OVER THE WEST /ESPECIALLY TRRM4 AND BESM4/ WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY. BUT THE TRAP ROCK RIVER LEVELED OFF MUCH FASTER OVERNIGHT AND THAT MAY BE A SIGN OF THE LACK OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT LEFT IN THE BASIN. WITH THE SOLID RISE YESTERDAY OF BESM4 AND DECENT SNOW COVER...WOULD THINK IT WOULD MAKE ANOTHER PUSH TODAY. AT THIS TIME...AN EDUCATED GUESS WOULD PUT IT BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE THE LAST MAJOR PUSH. THE ONGOING FLOODING ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER AROUND WITCH LAKE WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE SNOW WATER MAKES IT OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MARQUETTE COUNTY. THE STURGEON RIVER AT ALSTON AND CHASSELL CONTINUES TO HOVER BETWEEN ADVISORY AND WARNING LEVELS AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE BASED ON THE STEADY FLOW THROUGH THE STURGEON RIVER AT SIDNAW UPSTREAM. OTHERWISE...THE REST RIVER LEVELS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR COMPLETE DETAILS...SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KC MARINE...SRF HYDROLOGY...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 110716 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 316 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 CU FIELD IN PLACE EXCEPT OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SOME CLOUDS...BUT A SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W WILL KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS SET TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE CWA SUN. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURROUNDING CONVECTION. AS WITH MOST SHORTWAVES...MODELS DO NOT HANDLE TO TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM UNIFORMLY...SO IT IS HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL TRACK. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME CONVECTION. THE OTHER QUESTION IS WITH LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURROUNDING CONVECTION. THE NAM HAS THE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF MOST OF THE MODELS...BUT IT HAS SEEMED TO HAVE TOO MUCH MOISTURE FOR A WHILE NOW...SO IT WAS SOMEWHAT DISCARDED FOR THIS FORECAST. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /ESPECIALLY OVER S CENTRAL AND ERN UPPER MI WHERE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ADD ADDITIONAL FORCING/...WHICH IS WHAT IS IN THE GRIDS. DID NOT CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013 A QUIET WEEK IS IN THE MAKING FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE...THOUGH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD BE A BIT PESKY WITH CLOUDS AROUND MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...WITH SEVERAL CHILLY NIGHTS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN AXIS OF AN EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH MAINTAINING A STEADY APPROACH TO THE STRUCTURE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. THERE ARE SEVERAL DISTINCT AXES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN TROUGH...AND EACH SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE CWA IN ABOUT 12 HOUR INTERVALS STARTING MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS SERIES IS CURRENTLY MOVING SSW INTO FAR NORTHWEST HUDSON BAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL HUDSON BAY. BOTH ARE CLEARLY APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SAT...SO SEE NO REASON TO QUESTION MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH TIMING. THE TROUGH SHOULD BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z MONDAY...AND EASTERN UPPER MI AT 00Z TUESDAY. MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE PRESENT WITH MODEST H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND H7 FRONTOGENESIS. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 600MB BEHIND SUNDAYS SYSTEM AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SFC FRONT WILL LIMIT PCPN COVERAGE. LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ASSIST PCPN DEVELOPMENT...BUT STABILIZING NW GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD CONFINE BEST COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND ALONG LAKE MI. THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MUCAPE STRUGGLING TO REACH 500 J/KG NORTH OF GRB. MOST OF THIS CAPE WILL BE BELOW THE 0C LEVEL...SO KEPT THUNDER AT SLIGHT CHANCE OVER JUST THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ANY PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY EVENING. A SECOND MID-LEVEL WAVE CLOSER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CROSSING THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS TROUGH AND ACTUALLY KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE DEPLETED OF MOISTURE AS NOTED BY PWATS OF ONLY 0.7 INCHES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. THIS DOES MAKE MIN TEMPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT A LITTLE HARDER TO PIN DOWN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN MID-CLOUD COVER...OPTED NOT TO CHANGE MUCH AND LEAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INTERIOR WEST TO THE LOW 50S ALONG THE SHORE. QUITE A COOL TUESDAY WILL FOLLOW UNDER H8 TEMPS OF ONLY 4 TO 7C...COOLEST EAST. MIXING SHOULD REACH THE H8 LEVEL...SO TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70F SOUTH CENTRAL. AN EXCELLENT MODIS SST CAPTURE TODAY SHOWS LAKE TEMPS AROUND 50F IN THE NORTHERN OPEN WATERS...AND MID 50S IN THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SO EVEN WITH A NORTH WIND...THE COASTAL AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO BREAK INTO THE LOW 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WESTERN UPPER MI TUESDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. LOW PWAT UNDER 0.5 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONTINUED USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT HAS PERFORMED WELL ON SIMILAR NIGHTS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. EXPECT 40S FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE SHORE. SOME TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST COLD SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE UPPER 30S. A THIRD WAVE WILL SKIM THE NE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT WILL BRING ONLY SCATTERED MID-CLOUDS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK ON THURSDAY...BUT WILL SUCCUMB TO THE SAME LIMITING FACTORS. CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE AS LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS ON THE BACKSIDE THE SFC RIDGE. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TROUGH DROPPING SE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MORE CONSISTENCY...WILL CONTINUE CONSENSUS APPROACH TO PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW...WHICH SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013 EXCEPT FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT IWD EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS FCST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY CAUSE SOME -SHRA THIS AFTN IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING AT SAW AND PERHAPS IWD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LO TO INCLUDE MORE THAN VCSH IN THE TAFS ATTM. ANY -SHRA WL END BY SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 442 PM EDT SAT AUG 10 2013 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...BUT AGAIN...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESUME CONTROL OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...KLUBER AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS  FXUS63 KMQT 122058 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 358 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 STEADY S WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP UP WARMER AIR INTO UPPER MI. WAS A BIT SURPRISED TO SEE IWD JUMP UP TO 37F THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS ENDED UP BEING A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND MIXED PRECIP MOVED N INTO LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRICKY FCST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS AS SFC/NEAR SFC TEMPS FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE COUNTIES NEAR LAKE MI...WHERE A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGING IN FROM W UPPER MI /CURRENTLY SET UP OVER CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON/. BETTER FGEN/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z MONDAY DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE MI. GIVEN THE SURGE OF WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED AIR THIS AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED FCST LOWS FOR TONIGHT. THE RESULT IS A MIX OF MAINLY RAIN AND SNOW FOR NEAR LAKE MI. STILL...EVEN IF THE THERMOMETERS ARE REPORTING 32 OR 34F...SURFACES THEMSELVES MAY STILL BE QUITE COOL. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO ALERT OF THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING NEAR LAKE MI THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THE PRECIP WILL MAINLY FALL E INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...SO WILL NOT HAVE THE SPS GOING PAST 04Z FOR NOW. MODEL MIN TEMP SPREAD FOR TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS BIG AS THIS MORNING...WHERE FCST LOWS RANGED FROM 10-27F...WITH THE MEDIAN AND MEAN BEING 22F. WILL GO MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TONIGHT...WENT NEAR 30F OVER THE E THIRD OF THE CWA...AND THEN INCREASED THEM A BIT AS NOTED ABOVE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK SECONDARY BOUNDARY LES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE W. ALREADY HAVE REPORTS OF SNOW BEHIND THE LOW OVER S SASKATCHEWAN. ADDING LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MIX WILL ONLY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. DID NOT CHANGE POPS MUCH FOR MONDAY. LES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP OVER SW LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD VIEW /MODIS IMG/ SINCE THE 8TH OF JANUARY. WHILE TEMPS HAVE BEEN COLD...WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME BREAKING OF QUICK FORMING ICE. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS W OF IWD TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE LES GOING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE NEAR-SFC WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT TOO WESTERLY OR OUT OF THE W-SW FROM MID AFTERNOON ON TO KEEP MUCH GOING. OTHERWISE...WITH RATIOS NEARING 17:1...COULD HAVE 1 TO NEAR 2IN OF SNOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 413 AM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 A FAIRLY ACTIVE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKING AT THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES...THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN AND ONLY VARY ON THE SMALLER SCALE SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. MONDAY...SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT 24HRS WILL BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY AT 12Z MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AND LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND WAVE WHEN THEY COINCIDE WHICH LEADS TO DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION LOCATION. AT THIS POINT...SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE VERY FIRST PART OF MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER 850MB AIR WILL SURGE IN ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND MID DAY AND THEN THE EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF IS VERY MINIMAL/BLOTCHY OVER THE WEST AND HAVE TO WONDER IF THAT IS DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE THEY HAVE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUDY SKIES HAVE LIMITED ABILITY TO SEE COVERAGE OF ICE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...BUT WOULD HAVE TO BELIEVE IT IS LESS THAN INDICATED BY THE NAM/GEM-REGIONAL DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE ICE SEEN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS PAST WEEK. THEREFORE...AFTER A DRIER START TO THE DAY WILL TREND THE WEST UP TOWARDS LIKELY VALUES AND HAVE QPF AMOUNTS A TOUCH HIGHER THAN MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING. SINCE MUCH OF THE CLOUD WILL BE WITHIN THE DGZ ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...HAVE TRENDED SNOW RATIOS UP THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE LOW 20S TO 1. EXPECT THIS LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IN THE LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND INCREASE UNCERTAINTY. THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS COME FROM THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT AND THEN QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...AN LOW DEVELOPS IN ALBERTA AND MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH THE WAVE. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THEN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. BUT WHERE THEY DIFFER IS IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS WAVE AND HOW COLD THE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE. FIRST FOR THE WAVE...MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER AND THE RESULTING QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THUS...WILL TREND POPS UP OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA TO CHANCE VALUES. THE FARTHER NORTH TRACK LEADS TO LESS CONCERN ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT AND SINCE 850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE BETWEEN -16C AND -18C...SHOULD SEE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOW ALSO AFFECT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND IN TURN THE LAKE EFFECT LOCATION. THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR THE 925-850MB WINDS TO BE IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HIGHER POPS IN THOSE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS (5-6KFT RANGE) WILL LIKELY COUNTERACT THE MORE FAVORABLE SNOW RATIOS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD WITHIN THE DGZ...SO HAVE LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO A COUPLE INCHES FOR THE FAVORED LOCATIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS ON HIGHER POPS IN THE EVENING HOURS TUESDAY AND THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS QUICKLY BACK SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...GEM/ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WHERE THEY DIFFER THOUGH IS WITH THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE ASSOCIATED CLIPPER THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERAL IDEA FROM THE 00Z MODEL RUNS IS FOR THE LOW TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLIDE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH...SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC (POSSIBLY LOW END ADVISORY) SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT ON THE BACKSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AT LEAST -20C BY 12Z FRIDAY UNDER STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE STRONG WINDS (BL WINDS 25-35KTS) WILL LIKELY BREAK UP THE DENDRITES AND LEAD TO SMALLER FLAKES AND LOWER ACCUMULATIONS...BUT ALSO BE EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND CREATING POOR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED SNOW BELTS THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEIGHTENED WORDING/LEVELS IN THE HWO/EHWO...ALONG WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE HIGHS IN MOST LOCATIONS RIGHT AWAY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL BEFORE RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY. BUT THE CLIPPER ON THURSDAY WILL BRING TUMBLING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TEENS. AT THIS POINT...THAT COLD SHOT OF AIR LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WE SHOULD SEE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 201 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 QUICK MOVING REDUCTION IN VIS THAT BROUGHT A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TO ALL 3 SITES THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXITED ACROSS N KEWEENAW COUNTY AND OFF INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. ANOTHER BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE S...BUT IS MUCH LIGHTER AND WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL IMPACT AT THE AIRPORTS. AFTER THE EXIT OF THE MVFR TO IFR MIXED PRECIP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT IWD AND CMX AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND COOLER AIR RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FCST IS A BIT TRICKIER AT SAW...WHERE MAINLY DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL EXPECT A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN AFTER DAYBREAK AS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDES IN ON THE W WINDS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 335 PM EST SUN JAN 12 2014 A FEW S GUSTS NEAR 30KTS WILL LINGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING OVER FAR E LAKE SUPERIOR. A LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL MOVE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR GUSTS AROUND 30KTS OVER MAINLY S CENTRAL/E LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW 35KT GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WILL GET RID OF THE GALE WATCH...AND JUST GO WITH THE MENTION OF A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A QUICK MOVING LOW WILL THEN SINK FROM SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW CROSSING LAKE WINNIPEG LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. EXPECT SW GALES OF 35-40KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONGEST EAST. THEN N-NW GALES 35-NEAR 45KTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...STRONGEST CENTRAL AND E. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE KEEPING A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 210940 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 440 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A DEEP AND BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REST OF THE U.S. THE NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE COMING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON WED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. NAM BRINGS IN SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TONIGHT. NAM ALSO BRINGS IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON THE I270K-I285K SURFACES TONIGHT. GOING FORECAST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND AND DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO IT EXCEPT TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE U.P. WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TO HAVE DRY AIR OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HEAD NORTH WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. CONTINUED TREND OF HAVING LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING IN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE WITH SW WINDS. WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY FOR THE ERN CWA FOR TODAY WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE ACROSS ALGER...NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND WESTERN LUCE COUNTIES AND COULD SEE UP TO 6 INCHES MORE OF SNOW TODAY. AS FOR WIND CHILLS...WILL LET ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 16Z AS WIND CHILLS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. HAVE GOTTEN DOWN TO -25F. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 435 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF UPR MICHIGAN. NW FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS DUE TO RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TROUGH OVER EAST TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH IMPACT SNOW AND WIND WEDNESDAY AFTN AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES FOR NW FLOW AREAS ON THURSDAY...THOUGH IT WILL DIMINISH BY AFTN/EVENING AS WINDS BACK STEADILY MORE NW AND INVERSIONS FALL OFF TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS IN THIS TYPE OF ARCTIC AIRMASS. AFTER SOME MODERATION IN THE CHILL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DIVES INTO THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND LEADING TO MORE LAKE EFFECT FOR THE NW FLOW AREAS OF ESPECIALLY EASTERN CWA. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH. SHORTWAVE WITH BATCH OF MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS TO MOST OF CWA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT LGT SNOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY EVEN ALONG THE WI BORDER AND LK MICHIGAN. BIGGER STORY BY FAR ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE INCREASING SETUP FOR HIGH IMPACT WIND AND SNOW EVENT IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. RIGHT FROM THE GET GO...STILL THINK BEST CHANCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FM THIS EVENT WILL BE OVER MARQUETTE AND EASTERN BARAGA COUNTY WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING CYCLONIC NNE-NE FLOW 25-35 KTS...H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS/EQL/S PUSHING TOWARD 15KFT. RESULTING OVER-WATER INSTABILITY IS IN A WORD...EXTREME. UPSLOPE LIFTING ONLY ADDS TO THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL. SETUP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR SEEING INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES FOR MANY HOURS LATE AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING AS MESOLOW THAT FORMS OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT PUSHES ONSHORE. TWO INCHES PER HOUR NOT OUT OF QUESTION. THIS IS THE SNOW ASPECT. BLYR WINDS OVER 30 KTS SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE BLSN/DRSN WITH FREQUENT WHITEOUTS MUCH OF THE NIGHT. CONFIDENT WARNING CONDITIONS WILL VERIFY IN THESE AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...REALLY DO NOT THINK THIS IS WHERE THE ONLY HAZARD WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SETUP IS NOT AS IDEAL FOR AREAS FARTHER NORTHWEST /KEWEENAW PENINSULA/ AND INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN /GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES/ IT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND AGAIN LIKE BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH BLSN/DRSN AS PRESSURE RISE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. ALSO...SINCE THE GREATEST HAZARD FOR THOSE AREAS WILL SLIGHTLY EARLIER...DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING PUTTING THIS RIGHT DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE HOME FROM WORK AND SCHOOL...FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH TO PUT OUT A WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS WELL. OF ALL THESE ADDITIONAL AREAS...BEST CHANCE TO SEE CLOSE TO WARNING SNOWFALL WILL BE TOWARD IWD AND WHITE PINE AS SOUNDINGS SHOW CYCLONIC NNE FLOW WITH INVERSIONS 7-10KFT. ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS A CONCERN BUT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGE FROM MONDAY AFTN INDICATED OPEN WATER NORTH OF KIWD TOWARD ISLE ROYALE...WHICH IS THE WHERE THIS NNE FLOW WOULD BENEFIT. LATER SHIFTS CAN LOOK INTO THINGS FURTHER AND DECIDE WHETHER A HIGH END ADVY OR WARNING IS NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. WOULD HAVE JUST DONE AN SPS ON THIS SHIFT IF IT WAS NOT FOR THE STRONG WINDS/BLSN/DRSN AND POTENTIAL WHITEOUTS/REDUCED VSBY THAT MAY OCCUR DURING THE PEAK AFTN TRAVEL TIME. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHER POTENTIAL HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER WOULD BE OVER THE KEWEENAW LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME WEST WINDS OVER 30 KTS COMBINE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND/OR LGT SNOW FM SFC LOW CROSSING ONTARIO TO RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF POOR VSBY AND IMPACTS ON TRAVEL. WEEKEND FEATURES ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AS H85 TEMPS FALL BACK BLO -28C. LOWEST TEMPS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COULD SEE FALLING TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ONGOING OVER SNOWBELTS OF THE EAST. DGZ WILL BE NON-EXISTANT SO MAIN IMPACT OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE REDUCED VSBY DUE TO SMALL SNOWFLAKES. DEEP WINTER MARCHES ON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014 A COLD N WIND BRINGING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN TO UPPER MI WILL SLOWLY BACK SW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...BRINGING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TEMPORARILY. THE COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SMALL SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. THUS...CONDITIONS MAY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IS USUALLY THE CASE DURING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. KCMX WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY -SHSN...AND CONDITIONS THERE WILL LIKELY VARY BTWN MVFR AND IFR FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE BRIEF LIFR AS WELL. -SHSN AT KCMX WON'T END UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS BACK TO THE SW. KIWD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH -SHSN AT TIMES REDUCING VIS TO IFR. BACKING WINDS COMBINED WITH ICE COVER OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING. WHILE THERE MAY BE AN OCNL MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT...KSAW WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR WITH MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THRU THE PERIOD. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS EVENING MAY BRING -SN/MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO AN END TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS DIE DOWN. NEXT GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006- 007-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ249-250-266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ244-245-264-265. GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ240>248-263>265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...07  FXUS63 KMQT 212203 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 503 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM CNTRL CANADA INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AND A PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. ONE SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHILE A STRONGER CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS MOVING SE THROUGH NRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE LINGERING LES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO LIFT OFFSHORE AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW HAD DEVELOPED OVER NRN MN WITH THE STRENGTHENING WAA PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED 280K-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE LES INTO THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN LIMITED BY ADDITIONAL ICE BUILD UP OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. VIS/MODIS SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE WRN LAKE ICE COVERED EXCEPT A PORTION BETWEEN SILVER CITY/ROCK OF AGES(ISLE ROYALE)/AND THE PORTAGE CANAL. HOWEVER...SINCE MUCH OF THE ICE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IT IS THIN AND COULD BE BROKEN UP AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS. TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA THIS EVENING AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DROP THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN AND TEMPS SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SHRTWV MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONV DEVELOPING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR LES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA BY AROUND 18Z AND INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED....THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WOULD MAINLY IMPACT N CNTRL UPPER MI. THE HEAVIER LES WOULD MOVE INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND INTO MARQUETTE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THE EVENING. OVER THE WEST...THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ICE COVER. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NEWER ICE MAY BREAK UP WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER WINDS AND SOME MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IS STILL EXPECTED...THE EXTENSIVE AMOUNT OF ICE IS LIKELY TO LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. SO...THE FCST CUTS BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH MAX AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE...GREATEST NEAR ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW COUNTY. HOWEVER...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS STILL INCREASING INTO THE 30-35 KT RANGE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS. SO...SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER WITH POOR VSBY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS IS STILL POSSIBLE THE WATCH WAS LEFT INTACT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 501 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 MUCH OF THIS LONG TERM FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF ICE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG N WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BREAKING OF THE ICE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OTHER TIMES OF STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...TO SEE WHAT WINS OUT. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE W WHERE SOME FLUXES REMAIN...AND KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER CENTRAL AND E AREAS WHERE MORE OPEN WATER REMAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST AS CHANGING ICE COVERAGE DEMANDS CHANGES IN AREAS AND STRENGTH OF LES. THE OVERALL 500MB RIDGE W/TROUGH E WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THE NEAREST 500MB LOW STRETCHING FROM LAKE MI THROUGH E LAKE SUPERIOR AND S QUEBEC AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY SLIP E...BEING REPLACED BY N FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPPER MI ON THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL SMALL EMBEDDED WAVES...EXPECT SNOW TO LINGER /MAINLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR/. AS FOR THE ONGOING NEAR-TERM WEATHER...THE ONSET OF N WINDS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WERE SLOWED DOWN BY APPROX 3 HRS. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE LESS HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CITY OF MQT UNTIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE W DUE TO THE CONCERN OF ICE REMAINING OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH STILL 2-5IN FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY AND THE W HALF OF ALGER COUNTY. A LES ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR ALGER COUNTY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TO MID MORNING THURSDAY AS E MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY LOOK TO BE THE AREA OF BEST CONVERGENT FLOW NEAR THE SFC. WAA WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF ICE CRUSHING WINDS AND WAVES WILL LIKELY COME OUT OF THE SW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AS THE ONLY REAL RIDGING ALOFT TEMPORARILY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. 850MB WINDS OF 40-60KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 06Z FRIDAY ON...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -10 TO -12C. INCREASE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY...INTO THE LOW 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WILL STILL BE AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FAIRLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY...AS WELL AS A RETURN OF COLDER AIR. THE 12Z ECMWF PUTS 850MB TEMPS OF -26 TO -30C AIR BACK OVER THE CWA FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT AS THE LOW LINGERS ACROSS S QUEBEC. SIGNIFICANT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE W EDGE OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES AT THAT DISTANCE IS NOT TOO CERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH A MORE GENERAL CONSENSUS TYPE FCST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ON A SIDE NOTE...LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10MPH...AND CLOSER TO 15MPH NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO NEAR 35 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 LINGERING LES INTO CMX WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IFR VSBY WITH MVFR CIGS UNTIL WINDS BACK SW BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING MVFR CLOUDS AT SAW WILL ALSO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...PER SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS -SN AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD AND KCMX WITH MVFR BY WED MORNING AT KSAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 407 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL COME TO AN END TODAY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AS WINDS DIE DOWN. NEXT GALE EVENTS ALONG WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER EVENT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. ANOTHER GALE IS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH MORE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ002-004-005-009-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ266. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ263>265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...JLB MARINE...JLB  FXUS63 KMQT 251440 AAA AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 940 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 937 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 BASED OFF SPOTTER REPORTS THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30MPH...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM GOGEBIC COUNTY THROUGH THE KEWEENAW. MOST MODELS HAVE SHOWN WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO BE FROZEN OVER...BUT THAT ISN/T THE CASE BASED OFF SATELLITE IMAGERY LAST NIGHT AND MODIS FROM THURSDAY. ALSO...SEEING NUMEROUS LES BANDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH (GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES) DUE TO LOWERING INVERSIONS (3-4KFT ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING) AND DRIER AIR FROM APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT FELT THAT THE BLOWING SNOW AND SPOTTER REPORTS OF SUB 1/2MI VISIBILITIES IN OPEN AREAS WARRENTED AN ADVISORY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 552 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 LOTS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM. BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...THERE WAS A THIN BY SIGNIFICANT LINE OF SHOWERS THAT SLID ACROSS THE CWA. NOW WITH NW FLOW A DOMINANT BAND OF LES TEMPORARILY SET UP FROM/ACROSS THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THROUGH E MARQUETTE COUNTY /MARQUETTE AND HARVEY...DOWN ALONG M-28/. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2IN/HR WERE SHOWN OF THE 88-D/RADAR. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW THROUGH THE DAY...WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-35KTS OVER ALGER CO. WILL KEEP ONGOING HEADLINES GOING AS IS. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE OVER ALGER COUNTY AND E ALONG LS...AS WINDS WRAP AROUND A DEVELOPING MESO-LOW ACROSS E LAKE SUPERIOR. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE COMMON. WILL LEAVE ONGOING HEADLINES GOING AS IS FOR THE SHORT TERM. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL THE FALLING TEMPERATURES IS WIND CHILLS. EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FARTHER E...EVEN THOUGH LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS FOR ICE COVERAGE...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT BREAKING OF THE ICE ACROSS W LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE INCREASED POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE AVAILABLE LES PRODUCING AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF NAMERICA (POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING) WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS AT LEAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF RIDGE AXIS AND GREATEST POSITIVE ANOMALY...BUT OVERALL THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSTREAM...A TROF WILL DOMINATE CNTRL AND ERN NAMERICA...RESULTING IN SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS HERE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND BEYOND. GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE RIDGE AND TROF WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF BITTER COLD WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PCPN... PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD -SN. THE FIRST ONE OCCURS SUN/SUN NIGHT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND A SECOND ONE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. WITH THE COLD...LES WILL BE THE RULE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... ICE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES SINCE IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/THICKEN ON LAKE SUPERIOR. FREQUENT PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AREAS OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH HAS CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER NOW. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 24HRS MAY HAVE OPENED UP A LARGE AREA OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TODAY. IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAPID ICE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE WINDS. WOULD EXPECT THAT OVER TIME OPEN WATER AREAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SMALLER AND CONFINED TO THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE LAKE ALONG THE MN NORTH SHORE AS ICE PILES UP DOWNWIND. AS USUAL...ICE COVERAGE ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SLOWER TO EXPAND SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE OCCURRING ON A REGULAR BASIS. IN THE END...WHILE LES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI...IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE COLD PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE MAY NOT YET BE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN LES INTO NE UPPER MI. IN FACT WITH THE OPEN WATER AREA BECOMING MORE OVAL SHAPED...IT MAY TEND TO SUPPORT STRONGER DOMINANT LES BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SEEN OFF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE WHEN WINDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF THOSE LAKES. BEGINNING SUN...ATTENTION WILL BE ON POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE ORIGINATES FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC AND IS CURRENTLY OVER VICTORIA ISLAND IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO. WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE WILL SPREAD -SN ACROSS WI/NRN IL/NRN IN INTO LWR MI IN THE MORNING. NRN FRINGE OF THAT -SN WILL LIKELY BRUSH THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI. THE POTENT MAIN WAVE WILL THEN SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE AROUND 150M...AND MODELS INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH AXIS OF CORE FORCING PASSING SQUARELY ACROSS UPPER MI SUN. IF ANYTHING...MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN STRONGER WITH THE FORCING OVER THE LAST 24HRS OF RUNS. LACK OF MOISTURE IS A BIG NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO 1G/KG. EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL SUN...THOUGH GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE. AS WINDS BECOME NRLY AS SHORTWAVE PASSES...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...ONE OF THE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH GOOD OPEN WATER COVERAGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN LAKE MI...THE STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SUN SHOULD TRIGGER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE RESPONSE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER...ESPECIALLY SINCE LAKE TO 850MB DELTA-T WILL BE 20+ C. HIGH RES MODELS ALL SHOW MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT DROPS S TOWARD ALGER COUNTY. THUS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW INLAND...PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE BLIZZARD EVENT THAT HAPPENED ON THE KEWEENAW WITH A MESOLOW A FEW DAYS AGO. PREFER THE LOOK OF THE 4KM HIRES NAM WINDOW AND LOCAL REGIONAL WRF THAT SHOW 950MB WINDS UP TO 45KT OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED THE MAIN IMPACT TOWARD ALGER COUNTY AND AWAY FROM MARQUETTE COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN A VERY HIGH IMPACT SNOW/BLSN EVENT IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALGER COUNTY FOR SUN NIGHT. WILL CARRY WATCH INTO MON MORNING...THOUGH WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE SUN NIGHT. BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. CONSENSUS IS FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE -27 TO -32C RANGE BY MON MORNING. MON MORNING TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0 TO -5F OVER THE E TO -15 TO -20F OVER THE W. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN TO -35 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MON AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES. AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPS MON MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...EVEN COLDER THAN THE EARLY JAN ARCTIC BLAST AS INCREASED ICE COVER COMPARED TO EARLY JAN WILL LIMIT MODERATION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI MAY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE -10F MON. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WON'T MODERATE MUCH THRU THE DAY. DOWNWIND OF STILL MOSTLY WIDE OPEN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS OVER ERN UPPER MI WILL HOVER AROUND 0F MON. GROWING ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT SNOW INTENSITY/COVERAGE INTO WRN UPPER MI. TO THE E...THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STILL ELIMINATE THE DGZ DESPITE LARGER OPEN WATER AREA/MODERATION. SO...THE AIR WILL BE FILLED WITH TINY SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS...BUT PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BRISK WINDS LEADING TO BLSN WILL LIKELY CAUSE WHITEOUTS AT TIMES. CORE OF THE COLD AIR SHIFTS E MON NIGHT/TUE...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE BRISK SIDE...KEEPING WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE -30 TO -45F RANGE INTO TUE MORNING. THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SUGGESTS SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO RESPOND EVEN AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE. OVER THE W HALF...TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY STILL NOT BREAK 0F AT MANY LOCATIONS. LES/BLSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS FAVORED BY WNW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER BY THIS TIME...SO LES MAY STRUGGLE. SLOW MODERATION CONTINUES WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF NRN CANADA. SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD -SN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WINDS MAY BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE YET ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW/BLSN EVENT FOR ERN UPPER MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WED NIGHT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FOLLOW THU...BUT THE AIR MASS WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALSO THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO PASS BY TO THE N. SOME LES MAY LINGER THRU FRI UNDER WESTERLY WINDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 725 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 SITES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE QUICKLY FADES AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS AS WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE OUT OF THE WNW...IN RESPONSE TO THE SFC RIDGE PUSHING IN FROM THE PLAINS STATES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 SEVERAL PERIODS OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE OPEN WATER REMAINS/ WILL OCCUR ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO W QUEBEC AND N LAKE HURON WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS WILL SINK TO THE MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO S QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY TO SINK ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE N PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007- 085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ005- 011. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ012>014. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ240>245-263-264. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SRF SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 252040 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 340 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 A DEPARTING CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT MUCH COLDER AIR TO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 0 DEGREES AND ABOUT 5-18 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RAP ANALYSIS OF 850MB TEMPS OF -27C) HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE IT IS ICE FREE. MODIS IMAGE FROM THURSDAY/TODAY AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT SHOWS A DECENT AMOUNT OF OPEN WATER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE ICE MAINLY CONFINED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE APOSTLE ISLANDS TO THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY OPEN OTHER THAN SOME ICE NEAR THE SHORELINES. SINCE MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WESTERN LAKE BEING COMPLETELY ICED OVER...IT IS WREAKING HAVOC ON THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND LAKE EFFECT QPF OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. OVER THE WEST...IT HAS COMPLETELY REMOVED LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WHICH ISN/T THE CASE BASED OFF WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND TODAY. THUS...NOT SURE ABOUT THE USABILITY OF MOST MODEL DATA FOR LAKE EFFECT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BACK TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OF 1013MB OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA IS NOSING EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WEAKENING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE WEAKENING WINDS AND DRIER AIR AND LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS (3-4KFT ON 12Z KINL SOUNDING) HAS PRODUCED WEAKENING BANDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IMPROVING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEBCAMS. OVER THE EAST...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 20-35KTS AND WITH STRONGER MULTIBAND LES LOCATED FROM MUNISING EASTWARD...SPOTTER/WEBCAMS INDICATE VISIBILITIES ARE STILL POOR. THE SURGE OF COLD AIR THAT MOVED INTO UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...WITH THE AXIS LOCATED OVER FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z SUNDAY. FIRST FOR THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY DIMINISHMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH IT BEING LAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE EAST. THIS STEADY DIMINISHMENT SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM THE FINE FLAKES AND BLOWING SNOW. THEREFORE...WITH THE WINDS STARTING TO COME DOWN OVER THE WEST...WILL ALLOW THE LES ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 22Z AND HAVE THE LES WARNING OVER THE EAST REMAIN UNTIL 6Z. WITH MODELS MISHANDLING OF ICE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW MORE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LES THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS BACK. NOW FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE STRONG/MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...TAKING A 998MB LOW FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 12Z SUNDAY TO NEAR THE MACKINAC STRAITS AT 00Z MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -20C SUNDAY...DON/T THINK THERE WILL MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH. THE BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THEN TOWARDS EVENING OVER THE WEST AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE EAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED (3-6HRS) AND MAINLY AFFECT FAR SOUTHEST SCHOOLCRAFT AND SOUTHERN LUCE COUNTIES. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.05-0.11IN AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA. WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CLOUD AND FORCING WELL ABOVE THE DGZ (GENERALLY FROM -25 TO -30C) THINK THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE FINER FLAKES AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS TOMORROW. COBB OUTPUT FROM ALL OF THE MODELS HOVER AROUND 13-1 VALUES AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS END UP AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. WITH LIGHT WINDS...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE FINE FLAKES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 545 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 STRONG RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG THE W COAST OF NAMERICA (POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING) WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS AT LEAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME FLUCTUATION IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF RIDGE AXIS AND GREATEST POSITIVE ANOMALY...BUT OVERALL THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. DOWNSTREAM...A TROF WILL DOMINATE CNTRL AND ERN NAMERICA...RESULTING IN SOLIDLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS HERE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND BEYOND. GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE RIDGE AND TROF WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A PERIOD OF BITTER COLD WEATHER THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PCPN... PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW SYSTEMS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD -SN. THE FIRST ONE OCCURS SUN/SUN NIGHT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDEST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...AND A SECOND ONE WILL AFFECT THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU. WITH THE COLD...LES WILL BE THE RULE IN THE ABSENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... ICE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON LES SINCE IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND/THICKEN ON LAKE SUPERIOR. FREQUENT PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AREAS OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH HAS CONSIDERABLE ICE COVER NOW. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 24HRS MAY HAVE OPENED UP A LARGE AREA OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TODAY. IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE VERY COLD AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RAPID ICE GROWTH WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE WINDS. WOULD EXPECT THAT OVER TIME OPEN WATER AREAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SMALLER AND CONFINED TO THE UPWIND SIDE OF THE LAKE ALONG THE MN NORTH SHORE AS ICE PILES UP DOWNWIND. AS USUAL...ICE COVERAGE ON ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE SLOWER TO EXPAND SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE OCCURRING ON A REGULAR BASIS. IN THE END...WHILE LES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WRN UPPER MI...IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE COLD PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE MAY NOT YET BE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN LES INTO NE UPPER MI. IN FACT WITH THE OPEN WATER AREA BECOMING MORE OVAL SHAPED...IT MAY TEND TO SUPPORT STRONGER DOMINANT LES BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SEEN OFF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE WHEN WINDS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF THOSE LAKES. BEGINNING SUN...ATTENTION WILL BE ON POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE ORIGINATES FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC AND IS CURRENTLY OVER VICTORIA ISLAND IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC ARCHIPELAGO. WEAKER SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE WILL SPREAD -SN ACROSS WI/NRN IL/NRN IN INTO LWR MI IN THE MORNING. NRN FRINGE OF THAT -SN WILL LIKELY BRUSH THE COUNTIES BORDERING WI. THE POTENT MAIN WAVE WILL THEN SWING INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. 12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE AROUND 150M...AND MODELS INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH AXIS OF CORE FORCING PASSING SQUARELY ACROSS UPPER MI SUN. IF ANYTHING...MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN STRONGER WITH THE FORCING OVER THE LAST 24HRS OF RUNS. LACK OF MOISTURE IS A BIG NEGATIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS IS LOW SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WITH DGZ NEAR THE SFC. MIXING RATIOS IN THE 700-750MB LAYER ARE ONLY 0.5 TO 1G/KG. EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL SUN...THOUGH GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A LITTLE MORE. AS WINDS BECOME NRLY AS SHORTWAVE PASSES...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUN EVENING. HOWEVER...ONE OF THE IMPORTANT ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IS WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE OPEN WATER OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH GOOD OPEN WATER COVERAGE OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NRN LAKE MI...THE STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY THE WAVE SUN SHOULD TRIGGER A STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE RESPONSE OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATER...ESPECIALLY SINCE LAKE TO 850MB DELTA-T WILL BE 20+ C. HIGH RES MODELS ALL SHOW MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT DROPS S TOWARD ALGER COUNTY. THUS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW INLAND...PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE BLIZZARD EVENT THAT HAPPENED ON THE KEWEENAW WITH A MESOLOW A FEW DAYS AGO. PREFER THE LOOK OF THE 4KM HIRES NAM WINDOW AND LOCAL REGIONAL WRF THAT SHOW 950MB WINDS UP TO 45KT OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED THE MAIN IMPACT TOWARD ALGER COUNTY AND AWAY FROM MARQUETTE COUNTY. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN A VERY HIGH IMPACT SNOW/BLSN EVENT IS SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR ALGER COUNTY FOR SUN NIGHT. WILL CARRY WATCH INTO MON MORNING...THOUGH WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE SUN NIGHT. BEHIND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE...EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE AREA SUN NIGHT/MON. CONSENSUS IS FOR 850MB TEMPS IN THE -27 TO -32C RANGE BY MON MORNING. MON MORNING TEMPS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 0 TO -5F OVER THE E TO -15 TO -20F OVER THE W. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE DRIVEN DOWN TO -35 TO -45F OVER MUCH OF W AND CNTRL UPPER MI. NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR MON AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR PASSES. AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS...HIGH TEMPS MON MAY BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...EVEN COLDER THAN THE EARLY JAN ARCTIC BLAST AS INCREASED ICE COVER COMPARED TO EARLY JAN WILL LIMIT MODERATION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COLDEST GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPS OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI MAY NOT MAKE IT ABOVE -10F MON. AS A RESULT...WIND CHILLS WON'T MODERATE MUCH THRU THE DAY. DOWNWIND OF STILL MOSTLY WIDE OPEN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...TEMPS OVER ERN UPPER MI WILL HOVER AROUND 0F MON. GROWING ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT SNOW INTENSITY/COVERAGE INTO WRN UPPER MI. TO THE E...THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL STILL ELIMINATE THE DGZ DESPITE LARGER OPEN WATER AREA/MODERATION. SO...THE AIR WILL BE FILLED WITH TINY SNOWFLAKES THAT ARE HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS...BUT PRODUCE MOSTLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BRISK WINDS LEADING TO BLSN WILL LIKELY CAUSE WHITEOUTS AT TIMES. CORE OF THE COLD AIR SHIFTS E MON NIGHT/TUE...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE BRISK SIDE...KEEPING WIND CHILLS MOSTLY IN THE -30 TO -45F RANGE INTO TUE MORNING. THE EXPANSIVE NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SUGGESTS SFC TEMPS MAY BE SLOW TO RESPOND EVEN AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE. OVER THE W HALF...TEMPS TUE WILL LIKELY STILL NOT BREAK 0F AT MANY LOCATIONS. LES/BLSN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNOWBELTS FAVORED BY WNW WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE E. WRN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER BY THIS TIME...SO LES MAY STRUGGLE. SLOW MODERATION CONTINUES WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF NRN CANADA. SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER WIDESPREAD -SN WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS WINDS MAY BACK SUFFICIENTLY TO PROVIDE YET ANOTHER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW/BLSN EVENT FOR ERN UPPER MI DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN WED NIGHT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FOLLOW THU...BUT THE AIR MASS WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALSO THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR LOOKS TO PASS BY TO THE N. SOME LES MAY LINGER THRU FRI UNDER WESTERLY WINDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 COLD AIR SURGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...THE FINE FLAKES HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30MPH...VISIBILITIES HAVE FREQUENTLY BEEN REDUCED BELOW 1 MILE AT KCMX/KIWD. AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL THREE SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TOWARDS VFR AT KIWD/KSAW THIS EVENING...BUT WITH WINDS STILL BEING FAVORABLE AT KCMX...HAVE HELD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT....EXPECT THE FINE FLAKES TO AGAIN BE GOOD AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND HAVE LOWERED VALUES TO IFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014 SEVERAL PERIODS OF GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY /WHERE OPEN WATER REMAINS/ WILL OCCUR ON LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO W QUEBEC AND N LAKE HURON WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER E QUEBEC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS WILL SINK TO THE MS VALLEY TODAY...WHILE BRINGING A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE N PLAINS THIS EVENING TO SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO S QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER HUDSON BAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY TO SINK ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE N PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007- 085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST /4 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001>003-009. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MIZ006. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ005- 011. WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MIZ014. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ012>014. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ249>251-266-267. GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LSZ249-250-266. GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR LSZ245-248-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248-265. GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LSZ241>244-263-264. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ263. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244- 245-249>251. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...SRF MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 282113 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 413 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS REVEALS PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE W COAST OF N AMERICA WITH A BROAD DEEP TROF DOWNSTREAM OVER ERN NAMERICA. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE AROUND -25C...LES CONTINUES OFF MAINLY NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A W-WSW WIND FLOW WHERE VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS THE GREATEST AREA OF OPEN WATER. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE ICE-COVERED EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A NARROW PORTION JUST WEST OF THE KEWEENAW ALTHOUGH WAA MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN FM NRN ONTARIO MAKING IT HARDER TO DISCERN ICE COVERAGE OVER WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH KCMX HAS REPORTED OCCASIONAL VSBY OF 1/2SM OR LOWER...VSBY LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEWEENAW BASED ON WEBCAMS. THUS...DECIDED TO CANCEL LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY ON MORNING UPDATE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RISEN UP TO NEAR ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO AS NOTED ON LATEST SFC OBS. WIND CHILLS AT KCMX ARE STILL SOLIDLY INTO ADVISORY CATEGORY (-30F OR LOWER) WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 MPH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IS JUST ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF -25F HEADING INTO THE EVENING HRS. AS FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE WRN COUNTIES WHILE ADDING BARAGA AND SRN HOUGHTON COUNTIES...SO COUNTIES FROM BARAGA AND IRON WESTWARD WILL BE IN ADVISORIES THROUGH 16Z WED. PORTIONS OF WRN MQT COUNTY COULD REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE COUNTY SHOULD STAY ABV -25F SO DECIDED AGAINST HEADLINE THERE. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL LOWER INTO THE -20F TO -25F RANGE OR JUST ABV ADVISORY CRITERIA. COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD PREVENT A BIG FALL IN TEMPS TONIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SW CWA NEAR THE WI BDR WHERE LOWS COULD APPROACH -12F IN A FEW SPOTS. RELATIVELY WARMER AIR ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT MAY FEEL LIKE A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP FROM THE RECENT BELOW ZERO HIGHS...NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 20S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 A MUCH QUIETER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF JANUARY AND BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. THE LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SETUP WILL PLACE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN IN CANADA...BUT OCCASIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERALL THOUGH...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. OUR STREAK OF DAYS AT OR BELOW FREEZING CONTINUES...WITH TODAY BEING THE 54TH DAY IN A ROW. LOOKING AT LONG TERM ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE DATA...NONE OF THE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND ONLY A RUN OR TWO NEAR DAY 15. THUS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL WE WILL BE NEARING THE RECORD OF 72 DAYS (SET IN 1978-1979) WHEN WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE THE FIRST FEATURE OF NOTE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AT 00Z THURSDAY AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO JAMES BAY BY 18Z THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND DEPART THURSDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT (WHICH AFFECTS MUCH OF THE U.P.) WILL BE A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED AND WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...EXPECT THE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THEY NEAR EACH OTHER THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND EAST TOWARDS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN U.P. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD ONLY BE A DUSTING OVER THE WEST HALF...BUT IF THE INTENSITY INCREASES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE (MUCH OF THE FORCING/CLOUD IN THE DGZ). BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP AGAIN ACROSS THE U.P. AS A 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -16C. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW (ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE CLOUD BEING WITHIN THE DGZ) BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6KFT. IN ADDITION...WITH ICE COVER BUILDING OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT THAT ACTUALLY OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE HIGH END LIKELY AND LOW END DEFINITE POPS FOR THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO BACKING WINDS AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT OFF SHORE FOR ALL BUT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW IN THE PLAINS MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. 12Z ECMWF/GEM DETERMINISTIC RUNS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND THE GFS IS STARTING TO COME AROUND TO IT. THE GENERAL IDEA FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND WITH THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...HAVE SLIGHT POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AND CHANCES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. BEHIND THE LOW...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT IN THE WESTERLY WIND BELTS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH ICE WILL BE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 VERY COLD AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KCMX...FAVORED BY WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT INTENSITY OF -SHSN. WILL INCLUDE PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT 1SM FOR VSBY WITH A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHSN AND BLSN. WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE...WINDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING -SHSN/BLSN BACK TO KCMX THIS EVENING IF -SHSN DO IN FACT END TODAY. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES. AT KIWD/KSAW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MIGHT BE A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO DROP BLO VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 412 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2014 FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY AS ARCTIC AIR AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OFF AND ON. EXPECT WSW GALES TO 40 KTS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS AGAIN SHIFT TO THE W LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE E. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001>004-009-010-084. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LSZ267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-267. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ266. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263- 264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-264. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS  FXUS63 KMQT 031943 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WELL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND A FEW LOWER 20S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ICE COVERAGE...THERE IS ENOUGH OPEN WATER OVER THE EAST (EAST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO MICHIPICOTEN ISLAND) TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS IN THAT AREA. UPSTREAM...A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA (ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY) HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CLOUDS ARE MORE SCATTERED AND HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE MN ARROWHEAD AND ALSO FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH PUTTING OUT ANY QPF...THINK MENTIONING FLURRIES SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS IN MINNESOTA AND CANADA. HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING THE FLURRIES UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF THE EVENING AND CONTINUED INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE MODELS WERE SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE. SINCE THE ICE COVERAGE DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE SOLID OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WINDS DO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT FLUXES OFF THE LAKE TO PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD AND FLURRY SUPPORT. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT...AREA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY (FROM A STRONG HIGH OF 1054MB CENTERED IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES). SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION AROUND 875MB AND POTENTIALLY TRAP ANY LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THE MODELS SEEM TO THINK THE 950-900MB MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND SINCE THE COVERAGE IS LARGER BEHIND THE FRONT IN CANADA...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS POINT AND ALLOW THE UPCOMING SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS. SINCE THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...WILL LIMIT ANY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TO THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE BLOWING OFF THE POCKET OF OPEN WATER IN THE EASTERN QUARTER OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BASED OFF THE EXPECTED WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE 950-900MB LAYER LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE SNOW CHANCES TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO NE LUCE COUNTY TOMORROW MORNING AND POTENTIALLY WEST TO THE GRAND MARAIS AREA. DID PUT SOME FLURRIES OVER WESTERN ALGER COUNTY SINCE LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWS AN AREA OF OPEN WATER IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM THE HURON ISLANDS TO SHOT POINT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH HEATING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST (A 40MI FETCH) WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLICATED WITH THE CLOUD COVER ARRIVAL AND HOW LOW THEY REMAIN. IF SKIES STAY CLOUDY...EXPECT LOWS TO STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...WHILE IF CLEARING OCCURS IT WILL WILL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE (ALTHOUGH WITH A TREND TOWARDS MORE CLOUDS) AND HAVE LOW AROUND ZERO. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AND GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. WITH TODAY STAYING AT OR BELOW FREEZING...IT MARKS THE 60TH DAY IN A ROW THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THAT...WHICH PUTS US AT 3RD IN THE ALL-TIME LIST. WITH ONLY 12 MORE DAYS TO GO TO TIE...WILL NEED TO WATCH TEMPS NEXT WEEK TO SEE IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO APPROACH THE RECORD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 419 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 BENIGN WEATHER PATTER IS EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH SUN AS FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL AND EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR LIMITS LES COVERAGE/CHANCES. REALLY...NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES IN ANY PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH JUST LOW 30 POPS BEING THE HIGHEST POP IN THE LONG TERM. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. THU LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS W TO THE LOW TEENS E. MAIN CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD SOME BLOW SNOW TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THU AND FRI. W-WSW WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO AROUND 25KTS AT THAT TIME...AND WITH ICE COVERING MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THE KEWEENAW IS ESPECIALLY EXPOSED TO BLOWING SNOW. USED CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TO START THE PERIOD...BUT AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE QUESTION IS HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. LOOKING UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND NORTH DAKOTA...MOST SITES ARE AT VFR WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGH END MVFR WITH A SNOW SHOWER. THUS...HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION -SHSN FOR KIWD/KCMX DUE TO THE LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. SINCE MUCH OF THE WESTERN LAKE IS ICE COVERED...HELD OFF ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE LIMITED INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 243 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014 OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON LAKE SUEPRIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES EAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WHEN A LOW MOVES THROUGH HUDSON BAY...COULD SEE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 30KTS ON THURSDAY. WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE COVERED...SHOULDN/T BE MUCH CONCERN FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A POCKET OF OPEN WATER NORTH AND EAST OF GRAND MARAIS MICHIGAN WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 080839 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 339 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 THE PERIOD OF GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH THAT STRETCHES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC MOVED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE YESTERDAY EVENING AND SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WIND DIRECTION...ALONG WITH MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY SHOWING SOME GAPS IN THE ICE NEAR THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...WAS ENOUGH TO LEAD TO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE KEWEENAW AND STRETCHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTIES. THE UPTICK IN INTENSITY SEEN ON RADAR WAS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST HOUR AS LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND WITH LAND BREEZES OVER NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REST OF THE CWA...AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES NORTHWEST THROUGH WISCONSIN FROM A HIGH IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO RANGE...BUT LIGHT WINDS HAVE LIMITED THE WIND CHILL READINGS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA SHIFTS EAST TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA (NEARLY BRUSHING THE CITY OF MENOMINEE) AND THE ONLY INFLUENCE BEING HIGH CIRRUS SLIDING OVER THE CWA. THUS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST POPS WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. GFS IS THE MAIN MODEL KEEPING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THAT IS DUE TO IT HAVING MUCH MORE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. THUS...WILL STICK TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE NAM/GEM-REG AND OUR LOCAL WRF-ARW WHICH ALL SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WANING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. IN ADDITION...THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE WEST (AND EVEN A LITTLE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON). THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OVER ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES TO SHIFT OFF SHORE. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA DUE TO THE FAVORED WIND DIRECTION AND THE OPEN WATER NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...BUT DON/T THINK ACCUMULATIONS WILL AMOUNT AN MUCH. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THIS EVENING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING WITH THIS WAVE. WITH THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVER...WON/T GO WITH MUCH MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMPS OF -22C WOULD SUPPORT GOOD INSTABILITY WHERE POCKETS OF OPEN WATER ARE PRESENT. DID TREND HIGHS UP A LITTLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL/WEST LOCATIONS SINCE THE INITIAL SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOWER ALBEDO OF THE FORESTS TO PRODUCE HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT (MID-UPPER TEENS). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 EXPECT RELATIVELY DRY...BUT COLD WX TO IMPACT UPR MI THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THIS COMING WEEK AS NW FLOW BTWN PERSISTENT VORTEX CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AND UPR RDG OVER THE W CONTINUES TO FUNNEL CNDN AIR INTO THE UPR LKS OVER ICE COVERED LK SUP. BUT LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS BASIC WRN RDG/ERN TROF UPR PATTERN WILL WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL REGIME TOWARD MID WEEK AND ALLOW SOME MODERATION OF TEMPS AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW WL ALSO ALLOW FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOME LARGER SCALE SN EVENTS. SUN THRU MON...LATEST MODELS RUN HINT THAT A PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WL PASS THRU THE UPR MIDWEST/UPR LKS DURING THIS TIME. THE MORE SGNFT OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS FCST TO IMPACT UPR MI ON SUN...BUT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/MID LVL MOISTENING TO BE WEAKER. CONSIDERING THE ABSENCE OF ANY MSTR INFLOW IN LLVL NW FLOW WITH FCST PWAT NO HIER THAN 0.10-0.15 INCH...ABOUT 50 PCT OF NORMAL...WL TEND TO CUT BACK POPS OVER THE INTERIOR. EVEN IN THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF LK SUP... EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER THE LK...RELATIVELY HI H925-85 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 3C AND ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL CYC FLOW WL LIMIT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY SHSN EVEN WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENTLY COLD H85 TEMPS FALLING TOWARD -23C. ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV WL PASS LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG...BUT THE SAME LIMITS WL STILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPS WL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL. EVEN THOUGH SOME CLDS ON SUN NGT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHRTWVS MAY LIMIT THE DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP...TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD STILL FALL WELL BLO ZERO. IF THE STRONGER WINDS SHOWN BY THE GFS VERIFY...WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS/WIND CHILLS AT SOME PLACES COULD AT LEAST APRCH ADVY LIMITS. BUT MORE ILL DEFINED SHRTWVS INDICATE THE WEAKER WINDS FCST BY OTHER MODELS ARE PROBABLY ON TRACK. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...SFC HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD TOWARD THE UPR LKS UNDER RISING HGTS/DNVA...WITH SFC WINDS SLOWLY BACKING TO THE W BY 12Z TUE AND THEN TO SW ON TUE. ANY LES IN THE W WIND SNOW BELTS WL BECOME CONFINED TO THE KEWEENAW ON TUE AND END LATER IN THE DAY AS THE WINDS BACK SW. TEMPS COULD GET QUITE COLD MON NGT WITH PWAT AROUND 0.1 INCH AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH APPROACH OF SFC RDG AXIS. TENDED TOWARD THE LO END OF GUIDANCE FOR MON NGT MIN TEMPS...WITH EXPECTATION THE MERCURY COULD DIP AS LO AS -20F NEAR THE WI BORDER. EXTENDED...AS UPR FLOW TRENDS MORE ZONAL AT MID WEEK...MORE MODERATE MARITIME POLAR AIR WL IMPACT UPR MI. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WL BE ABLE TO TAP MORE MSTR AND BRING THE CHC OF MORE WDSPRD SN. WAD IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF THESE SHRTWVS MAY CAUSE SOME SN AS EARLY AS TUE NGT INTO WED AS H85 TEMPS RECOVER TO -5 TO -10C. BUT THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV TO THE N THRU ONTARIO INDICATES PCPN SHOULD BE NOT TOO GREAT. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MAY REACH THE AREA LATER ON WED/THU...BUT THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. SOME LES MAY FOLLOW WITH THE RETURN OF SOME COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE ON FRI...BUT THAT AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS COLD AS WHAT THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. THE VERY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RECOVER TO ABV NORMAL THE FOLLOWING WEEK WITH FALLING PRES IN CANADA SUPPORTING A STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OF PACIFIC AIR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX...MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/-SHSN. SOME LARGER OPENINGS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE ICE COVER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DEVELOPING DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER AREAS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CIGS HOVERING AROUND 3000 TO 3500FT AND PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING AT KCMX. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND BACK A LITTLE. LIGHT WINDS MAY VEER AGAIN THIS EVENING...BRINGING A HIGH MVFR CIG AND A FEW FLURRIES TO KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 A WEAK TROUGH MOVED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND LED TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 15KTS BY EVENING. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A STRONG HIGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS POINT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 25KTS. FINALLY...WITH MUCH OF THE LAKE ICE COVERED...THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONCERNS WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 090803 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 STEADY MID CLOUDS ARE SW OF A LINE FROM JUST SW OF DLH TO GRB. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER NE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HRS. WHILE ALL THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN S OF THE CWA...ACROSS WI/LOWER MI...WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOW TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THE WEAK SFC TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT WILL SINK ACROSS THE E CWA AND LOWER BY BY 12Z SUNDAY...ALLOWING INCREASED NW FLOW AND COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN DURING THE DAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL FROM A CWA AVG OF -16C THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND -21C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WAS EVIDENT BY THE RADAR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT AND 1IN SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NEAR GRAND MARAIS...EVEN WITH A MAINLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH OPEN AREAS AND OVERALL FLUXES TO CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN DOWNWIND LOCATIONS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE THE FCST OF SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE OUT OF THE NNW BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE W AREAS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1116 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AT ALL TAF SITES AS VARIABLE WINDS SHIFT NW BTWN 08-14Z THIS MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE...IT IS HARD TO FCST VSBY LOWER THAN VFR AS NW WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AND SHOULDN/T CONTRIBUTE TO MUCH BLOWING SNOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 323 PM EST SAT FEB 8 2014 GIVEN THE MAINLY FROZEN LAKE...FREEZING SPRAY IS BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY...AS A STRONG HIGH SINKS FROM ALBERTA TO THE N PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...AND EXIT ACROSS THE NE SEABOARD WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE NEARING FROM THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 092057 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 357 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 LAKE SUPERIOR IS MAINLY ICE COVERED...SEE THE LATEST FALSE COLOR MODIS IMAGE. THE MAIN HOLES ARE OVER THE FAR W...ALONG THE COAST OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. STILL THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH LIGHT WINDS TURNING TO A MOSTLY WNW DIRECTION TODAY TO CAUSE SOME CONVERGENCE WITH THE ADDED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PICKING UP ON THE COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND HAVE TO RELY HEAVILY ON THE GFS/ECMWF FOR AREAL COVERAGE WITH SIGNIFICANT EDITING TO ALIGN MORE WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WIND FIELDS. THIS HAS NOT WORKED OUT TOO WELL TODAY...AS N WINDS REMAINED MOST OF THE DAY OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR LIGHT SNOW FROM BIG BAY THROUGH MARQUETTE AND W ALGER COUNTY. AN ESTIMATED 2IN HAS ALREADY BEEN CALLED IN FROM MARQUETTE...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE RADAR ESTIMATE WITH A 18:1 SLR. HAVE ALREADY SEEN LESS DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OF ADDITIONAL LES OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND OVERALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS UPSTREAM...WITH THE NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER S MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. IT HAS BROUGHT HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS TO KCDD AND SW ONTARIO. LOOK FOR THIS TO PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW AS WELL...LEADING US TO WONDER HOW MUCH LES CAN BE PRODUCED OFF THE BREAKS NEAR ISLE ROYALE. WILL KEEP MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW...AND NEAR/E OF MUNISING ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OVERNIGHT IN THESE LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA /850MB TEMPS FALLING AROUND 2C/ WILL HELP WITH LES...AND CLOUDS. STILL...TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO W AND CENTRAL INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 8MPH...WIND CHILL READINGS ONLY BOTTOM OUT AT -25 FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF A COUNTY-WIDE SPS OR WIND CHILL ADVISORY. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE OUT OF THE WNW AGAIN MONDAY...WITH LES CONTINUING IN THE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS. ONCE AGAIN...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 303 AM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 AFTER STARTING THE LONG TERM PERIOD UNDER A COLD NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...IT/S DEPARTURE ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WARMER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS (-24C) UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE OPEN WATER. BUT MODIS SATELLITE FROM TODAY SHOWS THAT THOSE AREAS ARE VERY LIMITED...BUT THERE WERE STILL PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OVER THE LAST DAY. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS SHIFTS OF SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR PRESENT...ALONG WITH LIMITED OPEN WATER...DON/T THINK SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH...UNLESS SOME WATER OPENS UP MORE THAN CURRENTLY SEEN. SINCE THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE CWA (CURRENTLY BETWEEN LAKE WINNIPEG AND HUDSON BAY)...WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDER DAYS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEST IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND MID-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE RIDGE...FROM THE HIGH SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL LEAD TO DRIER AIR...WARMING ALOFT...AND WEAKENING/BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE SNOW CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE DRY RIDGE MOVING IN ON MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE INLAND TEMPERATURES REALLY FALL WERE SKIES CLEAR OUT. GOING FORECAST HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER NEAR -20F AND THAT SEEMS FAIRLY REASONABLE. DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THOSE VALUES...SINCE SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS EVEN HAVE VALUES AROUND -24F AND BASED OFF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS IT DOESN/T SEEM TOO UNREASONABLE. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR WIND CHILLS TO NOSE INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT WITH WINDS LOOKING TO BE WELL BELOW 10MPH...SHOULD NOT NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND LEAD TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL START A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL...FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS ON THE WHERE THE PIECES OF ENERGY TRACK...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS FOR SOME ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY TO SWEEP THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR A WEST TO EAST PUSH OF CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE CWA. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THIS TIME...THE GFS/GEM ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTENSIFYING THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING IT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TRACKS A WEAKER LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ALL IN ALL...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE TRADITIONAL FASTER GFS AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTIONS USUALLY MERGING AND SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCES...THINK THE AREA WILL POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE NEAR ADVISORY SNOWFALL AROUND THE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE CHANCE CATEGORY UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. BEHIND THAT DISTURBANCE...MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA AND PRODUCE A DRY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1239 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 NW FLOW WILL LINGER AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY MORE WNW PUSH OF WIND TOWARD IWD SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS TO PUSH N OF THE SITE WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING DOMINANT. CMX WILL TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS AND LOWER VIS WITH -SHSN AS SAW IS IN A MORE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WITH THIS WIND DIRECTION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL STILL KEEP VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS OFF AND ON AT BOTH IWD AND SAW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 356 PM EST SUN FEB 9 2014 LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS DUE TO THE WINDS LINGERING AROUND 25KTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD /EXCLUDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...AND MAINLY DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND SEABOARD TONIGHT...A HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SE. EXPECT A RIDGE TO SET UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN HIGH SINKS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TUESDAY...AND EXITS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON WEDNESDAY. S GALES TO 35KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS ND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT NE TO S HUDSON BAY WHILE DRAGGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GALES TO 35KTS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OUT OF THE N/NNE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...KF MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 210954 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 454 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 MAIN POINTS THROUGH TODAY...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER THAT. STRONG W-SW WINDS BEHIND THE SFC LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. THE STRONG SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST SW OF IRON MOUNTAIN AND AT LEAST 976MB DEEP...WHICH IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVATION WITH THE SYSTEM AT IMT. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KEWEENAW BY 12Z TODAY WHILE DEEPENING SOME...TO FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 18Z TODAY AND INTO ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT. MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS NOW OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND W OF UPPER MI WHERE THE TROWAL FEATURE IS LOCATED. MOSTLY SEEING MODERATE SNOW OVER WRN UPPER MI...WITH BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO REDUCED VIS FROM ELY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30MPH. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL UPPER MI HAS MAINLY SEEN LIGHT SNOW...BUT LOWER TERRAIN AREAS AND MUCH OF ERN UPPER MI HAS SEEN MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORM OF SNOW...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. AT THIS TIME...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IN THE CWA IS SNOW AND ALL PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW SHORTLY AS WARMER MID LEVEL AIRMASS EXITS TO THE E AND DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND THE SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH SOME OVER WRN AND ERN UPPER MI TODAY WHILE CENTRAL UPPER MI SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY BY THE END OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE WSW. WINDS NEAR THE NRN BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NRN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SFC LOW PASSES AND A PRESSURE RISE CENTER MOVES INTO CENTRAL WI. EXPECT WINDS FROM NEAR GARDEN CORNER TO THE E TO GUST UP TO 55MPH TODAY...AND GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP AND LIMITED BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL /DUE TO THE SNOW PACK GETTING WARM OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MIXED PRECIP LAST NIGHT/ TODAY DECIDED TO CONVERT WINTER STORM WARNING FOR DELTA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E...CONVERTED WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GIVEN LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TODAY BUT STRONG WINDS THAT WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD WARNING OVER WRN UPPER MI THE SAME...BUT LONG TERM FORECASTER DID EXTEND THE BLIZZARD. THE BLIZZARD STILL LOOKS GOOD AS E WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25 MPH COMBINED LIGHT SNOW IS REDUCING VIS TO 1/4SM AT TIMES...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 50MPH EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED SNOWFALL AND INCREASING WLY WINDS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE SEVERE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 STRONG LOW PRESSURE AROUND 975MB LIFTS NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR TOWARD JAMES BAY BY 12Z SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH FOR MAJORITY OF THE CWA. DID EXTEND BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA THOUGH AS FREQUENT GUSTS REMAIN OVER 40 MPH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW FROM THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE DIMINSIHING...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND -16C TO LEAD TO WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW. MODIS IMAGE FROM THURSDAY AFTN SHOWED SOME GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND EXPECT MORE OPEN WATER TO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG WEST WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD UP BY BKN CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. PERSISTENT FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE LOW PRESSURE SPINS VICINITY OF OVER HUDSON BAY AND JAMES BAY. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER STAY FROM THE WEST. SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS FAVORED BY WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS UP TO 5KFT AND THIS REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. INVERSION DOES LOWER SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN INCREASES AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS PUSH OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -20C. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF SUPPLEMENTAL MOISTURE ADD TO THE LAKE EFFECT THOUGH SO EVEN THOUGH CONVERGENT WEST WINDS MAY BE HIGHER...LACK OF SIGNIFICANT OPEN WATER AND ENHANCING MOISTURE/FORCING SHOULD KEEP IT IN CHECK. GIVEN THE WNW-W WINDS MAIN AREAS THAT WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT ARE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN /WHITE PINE TO ROCKLAND AND TWIN LAKES/ AND ALSO THE SNOW BELTS OF EASTERN CWA TO THE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. AS IT IS TO START THE WEEKEND...MAIN ISSUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE POOR VSBY AT TIMES DURING GUSTY WINDS. ALSO WITH TIME...DGZ BECOMES LESS A FACTOR SO SNOWFLAKES WILL BE SMALLER WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO REDUCE VSBY. DO NOT FORSEE HAVING TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING ANY MORE BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MIGHT NEED AN ADVY FOR THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LOWER VSBY AND IF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPAND WITH THE OPENINGS IN THE ICE COVER. TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY HOW THAT PLAYS OUT RIGHT NOW. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY BLO ZERO AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WI BORDER AWAY FM LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. APPEARS WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT IS ONGOING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY FOR WNW AND MAYBE EVEN NW FLOW AREAS. CONTINUE TO DRAG THE CHANCY POPS INTO MORE OF THE NORTHERN U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AGAIN...LARGER SCALE NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SO AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WINDS ALSO START TO COME DOWN REDUCING THE BLSN HAZARD. CORE OF COLDEST AIR DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HINTS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF DISTURBANCE SLIDING THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF STRONG COLD FRONT. H85 TEMPS FALL OFF BLO -30C BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONLY SLOWLY MODERATING BY FRIDAY. STRONGER NW WINDS IN WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ISSUES NEXT THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE BLO ZERO IN MANY AREAS OF THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 DEEPENING SFC LO WL TRACK THRU WCENTRAL UPR MI EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE SHIFTING INTO LK SUP AFT 12Z FRI AND THEN INTO ONTARIO LATE TDAY AND TNGT. THE HEAVIEST SN WL CONT AT CMX/IWD TO THE W OF THE SFC LO TRACK THRU MUCH OF THE MRNG...SO EXPECT IFR/LIFR TO OCNL VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. ONCE THE SFC LO PASSES TO THE N OF THOSE LOCATIONS...VERY GUSTY NW BACKING W WINDS WL OCCUR AT IWD AND CMX. ALTHOUGH THE SN WL TEND TO DIMINISH WITH TIME...THE BLSN ACCOMPANYING WIND GUSTS AS HI AS 40 KTS AT CMX WL RESULT IN VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. SINCE SAW WL BE TO THE E SIDE OF THE SFC LO TRACK...DRYING ALF WL RESULT IN LIGHTER PCPN. BUT LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL STILL SUPPORT PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS THRU AT LEAST MID MRNG. AFTER THAT TIME...DVLPG GUSTY... DOWNSLOPE WSW FLOW WL BRING PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS WITH VERY LTL VSBY RESTRICTION THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 453 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2014 A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING EASTERLY GALES TO 35-45KTS OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CENTER CROSSES THE LAKE...THEN BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST GALES AT 35-45 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY SATURDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES TO 35 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-009-084. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004>007-010>012-085. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ001-003. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ013-014. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ244>248-264>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ SATURDAY FOR LSZ162- 240>243-263. LAKE MICHIGAN... STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS  FXUS63 KMQT 220956 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 456 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 417 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 THE OCCLUDED LOW THAT MOVED ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER JAMES BAY WITH A SFC PRESSURE OF 978MB. THE LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO AROUND 992MB. THIS PLACES THE CWA BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS STATES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS...THE RIDGE TO THE SW WILL BE BUILDING SO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA ONLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS LEADS TO CONDITIONS BE NEARLY STEADY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH SLIGHT AND GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF WINDS AND PRECIP. AT THE PRESENT...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO 45MPH AT CMX AND 30MPH AT IWD...WITH WEAKER WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. VISIBILITIES ARE STILL LOW OVER THE WRN CWA FROM THE BLOWING SNOW...AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY QUITE GUSTY TODAY DECIDED TO EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES UNTIL 00Z SUN. BLOWING SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WRN U.P. TONIGHT...BUT LIKELY TO A LESSER DEGREE AS WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH...SO DID NOT EXTEND HAZARDS BEYOND TODAY. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MINOR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER WRN UPPER MI...BUT THAT WILL ONLY ADD TO THE BLOWING SNOW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 455 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 NO LARGE CHANGE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT A RETURN TO THE DEEP FREEZE IS COMING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS/GEM-NH SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND CANADIAN YUKON BUILDING WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE EXPANDS OVER SKANDINAVIA AND NORTHWEST RUSSIA. RESULT IS UPPER LEVEL VORTEX CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH POLE DROPPING SOUTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN ACROSS GREAT LAKES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. COLD AIR ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY BUT CORE OF COLDEST TEMPS SLATED FOR NEXT THURSDAY WHEN H85 TEMPS DROP BLO -30C. LIKELY THAT BOTH THESE DAYS WILL NOT FEATURE SOME SORT OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES OVER CWA. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DEEP TROUGH ALOFT FINALLY RELAXES GRIP ALLOWING WRAPPED UP SFC LOW TO UNRAVEL AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY COME DOWN TO MORE MANAGEABLE LEVELS. WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WILL SWING A SFC TROUGH VEERING WINDS FROM WNW TO NW...WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT REARRANGE THE ONGOING LGT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS MAY GET BOOST ON SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND ALSO AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO H7 WORKS THROUGH IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND INVERSIONS RISE UP ABOVE 5KFT. MOST RECENT ANALYSIS AND MODIS IMAGE FOR ICE COVER INDICATED DECENT AREA OF OPEN WATER OVER SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO THE NORTH OF MQT/P53 AND TO NW OF WHITEFISH POINT. RADAR SHOWING HIGHER ECHOES WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BAND THERE CURRENTLY SO THAT OPEN WATER MAY STILL BE THERE. LOW-LEVEL WIND FM WNW WILL TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF SUCH AN ORIENTED FETCH OF OPEN WATER...SO AN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BAND COULD TRY TO FORM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. 925-850MB TEMPS AT OR BLO -18C LEAD TO MINIMAL DGZ WITHIN THAT LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO SMALL FLAKES AND LOW VSBY COULD BE THE BIGGER ISSUE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF MUNISING AND TO THE NORTH OF NEWBERRY. SCT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG MOST OF LK SUPERIOR SEEM REASONBALE WITH SOME PATCHY BLSN AS WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH. MAIN IMPACT FARTHER INLAND WILL BE CLOUDS WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR AND/OR THE MID CLOUDS FM THE SHORTWAVE. CLOUDS WILL HOLD UP TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT FAR WEST AND SW/SCNTRL MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP OFF ENOUGH TO HAVE WIND CHILLS NEARING ADVY CRITERIA. WINDS BACK ENOUGH MONDAY AFTN TO PUSH LAKE EFFECT BACK TOWARD THE SHORE. MID CLOUDS WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF FARTHER NORTH WITH SOME LGT QPF FM THE WAVE WHILE THE GFS AND GEM SHUNT THEIR QPF FARTHER SOUTH. GFS SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UVM FAR ENOUGH DOWN IN THE SOUNDING TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME LGT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE QUALITY IS UNCERTAIN THOUGH. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WHERE FLOW WILL ALREADY BE ONSHORE. INVERSIONS CHANGE LITTLE THOUGH SO EVEN WHERE WINDS WILL BE FLOWING ACROSS OPEN WATER AREAS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE. YET ANOTHER SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER TUESDAY WITH WHAT IS THE FIRST PUSH OF THE VERY COLD AIR SETTLING ACROSS THE AREA. H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -28C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO SHIFT AROUND TO MORE NW FAVORED SNOWBELTS AND SHOW AN UPTICK TO THE INTENSITY WITH BEST SHOT AT SOME ACCUMULATION OVER EASTERN SNOWBELTS DUE TO THE UPSTREAM OPEN WATER. INVERSIONS RESPOND WITH THIS WAVE...POSSIBLY UP TO 7KFT IN THE EAST. AGAIN...GIVEN THE ABSCENT DGZ FROM LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW VSBY DUE TO THE SMALLER SNOWFLAKES AND GUSTY WINDS AND BLSN. ARRIVAL OF THIS FIRST PUSH OF COLDER AIR ALSO RESULTS IN LOWER WIND CHILL READINGS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WINDS BACK MORE W/SW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT BRINGS IN PRIMARY COLD ADVECTION. GFS/GEM-NH INDICATE SFC TROUGH AND BITTER COLD ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF IS DELAYED TIL LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LIKELY EITHER SCNEARIO WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL HEADLINE ISSUES THURSDAY MORNING AND PROBABLY FRIDAY MORNING TOO. LAKE EFFECT RESURGES TOO IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. BEYOND THE EXTENDED...BUT DOES APPEAR THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME KIND OF WIDESPREAD SNOW SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH...YOU GUESSED IT...MORE COLD IN ITS WAKE TO START THE NEW MONTH. HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT ALL WORKS OUT BUT IT CERTAINLY FITS THE PERSISTENCE IDEA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 AS DEEP LO PRES CONTINUES SLOWLY TO THE NE THRU ONTARIO THIS FCST PERIOD...THE GUSTY W WINDS BUFFETING UPR MI WL SLOWLY DIMINISH. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/VLIFR CONDITIONS BLO LANDING MINIMUMS WL PLAGUE CMX THRU 12Z SAT BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LIFR AS THE WINDS AND ACCOMPANYING BLSN SLOWLY SUBSIDE. AT IWD...THE SLOWLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW/SHSN AND BLSN WL ALLOW IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AT SAW...DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF FLOW AT THAT SITE SHOULD RESULT IN PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT THAT SITE THRU THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 417 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT W GALES OVER OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE SLOWLY WEAKENS. AFTER THIS TIME...NO GALES ARE EXPECTED. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002-009. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>251- 263>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR LSZ162. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...KC MARINE...TITUS  FXUS63 KMQT 222111 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 411 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 THE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY HAS BECOME STATIONARY NEAR CAPE HENRIETTA MARIA BETWEEN HUDSON BAY AND JAMES BAY. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM A HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AND PART OF SUNDAY. THUS...THE WINDS AND RESULTING BLOWING SNOW (MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW) WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND COLDER AIR ALOFT SPILLING INTO THE REGION...WOULD EXPECT THE GUSTY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. EVEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WINDS AT KCMX HAVE FALLEN TO ONLY 35-40MPH. UPSTREAM AT ISLE ROYALE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO SIMILAR VALUES AND WITH MODELS SHOWING GUSTS TO 35KTS THROUGH BETWEEN 06-12Z...WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE KEWEENAW TONIGHT. SINCE MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS DIMINISHED AT KCMX...SEEING MORE OF A SPOTTY NATURE TO THE WORST VISIBILITIES ON WEBCAMS AND THE KCMX OBS. THUS...THINKING THAT THE GOING ENDING TIME FOR THE BLIZZARD WARNING IS REASONABLE AND THE EVENING SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO LET IT EXPIRE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER A ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THE LINGERING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OR IF IT COULD BE COVERED BY AN SPS. ALMOST LEANING TOWARDS AN SPS...BUT WILL ALLOW EVENING SHIFT TO SEE HOW VISIBILITIES ARE DOING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN DECIDE. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LITTLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON WEBCAMS IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES...HAVE CANCELLED THE EXISTING WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THERE. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST-SOUTHEAST AND IS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THIS TRACK...IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF MOVING SOUTH OVER THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...THINK MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON LAKE EFFECT. WITH RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -17C AND MODELS SHOWING THAT FALLING TO -23C BY 00Z MONDAY...THERE IS PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY IF WATER IS PRESENT ON LAKE SUPERIOR. TODAY/S MODIS IMAGE SHOWS SOME OPEN WATER THAT HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. THEREFORE...WITH THE WESTERLY 925MB WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT...HAVE FOCUSED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THOSE PATCHES OF OPEN WATER. THIS MAINLY AFFECTS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH WINDS SHIFTING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HAVE SLOWLY TRANSITIONED POPS TOWARDS THAT DIRECTION. DIDN/T PUT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO) INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS LIKELY LIMITING FETCH ACROSS THE OPEN WATER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING ACROSS HUDSON BAY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WED-FRI WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS FOR THE DETAILS...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO FILL SUNDAY NIGHT THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST BY MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW PBL WINDS TO VEER TO THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS VEERING OF WIND COMBINED WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER WEST PERHAPS TO THE ALGER/MARQUETTE COUNTY BORDER. IN ADDITION...LES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FLUXES OVER THE SEMI-OPEN AREAS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ONE WOULD THINK THAT WITH THE WIND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT THE ICE ON THE LAKE HAS BROKEN UP SOME. IN FACT...TODAY/S MODIS IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEVERAL LARGER BREAKS HAVE OPENED ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE AS WELL AS EAST OF THE KEWEENAW. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A LITTLE MINI BAND OF ENHANCED LES JUST EAST OF THE KEWEENAW ORIENTED INTO FAR WESTERN ALGER COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE ENHANCED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AS THE WINDS VEER TO NW. FOR NOW...WILL RAISE POPS TO 50 PCT ACROSS ALL OF ALGER INTO LUCE COUNTIES AND RAISE POPS TO CHC CATEGORY IN ERN MQT COUNTY. BEHIND THIS SHORT WAVE...LIGHT LES WILL CONTINUE IN THE KEWEENAW AND INTO ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR IF FLUXES WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO GENERATE LES OFF THE LAKE. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST CHANCE POPS. WINDS BACK TO WNW TUE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANY LES TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR THE KEWEENAW. THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WED-SAT...CONTINUES TO LOOK EXTREMELY COLD. THE 12Z NWP CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...OPENING THE DOOR FOR ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -30 TO -34C BY THU EVENING WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE ZERO DURING THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING...THUS DROPPING SFC TEMPS TO -20F OR LOWER. IF THE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS GO LIGHT...THIS COULD BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS SIMILAR TO EARLY MARCH 2003 WHERE NWS MQT SAW A MIN TEMP OF -31F. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING -20 TO -25 BELOW. PERHAPS SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BY SATURDAY WITH SLIGHT 850MB WARMING...BUT THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE ARCTIC HIGH STRENGTHENS LEADING TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH...APPARENT TEMPS WILL NOT FEEL MUCH DIFFERENT INTO THE WEEKEND. JUST TO NOTE...THE LATEST CFS /CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM/ GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF MARCH WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES... && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KCMX...TO 35-40KTS...THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN A SLIGHT DECREASE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE. AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...VISIBILITIES MAY TRY TO COME UP SLIGHTLY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 1/2SM RANGE. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AT KCMX TOO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL ASSIST THE LOWER VISIBILITIES. FOR KIWD/KSAW...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SCATTERED/BROKEN CU FIELD BUT EXPECT THAT TO DIMINISH ONCE DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST. THEN THE WESTERLY WINDS WON/T BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AND KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND COULD PRODUCE A MORE SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 410 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WESTERLY GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40KTS TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND LEAD TO WINDS DROPPING TO 30KTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>246- 263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 231005 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 505 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 504 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 STRONG GUSTY WINDS REMAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS THE REGION REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN THE SFC LOW NEAR JAMES BAY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEARING FROM SW/SCENTRAL CANADA. STILL HAVING 30 TO NEAR 35KT WINDS BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND 40KT WIND GUSTS STILL AT STANNARD ROCK AT 09Z. LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DID SHOW PLENTY OF OPEN WATER...OR NEARLY OPEN WATER OVER FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR /NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN UP TO ISLE ROYALE...AND JUST E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS/. ANOTHER POCKET OF LIKELY CLEARING IS E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. WITH WINDS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DIMINISHING...WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR THE TYPICAL W TO WNW FLOW AREAS TODAY. CMX HAS BEEN INDICATING LESS THAN 1SM SINCE 23/02Z...WITH NO REAL SIGNS OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE KEWEENAW SLIGHTLY AFTER LOOKING AT THE PRIOR 6HR PRECIP AMOUNTS...WHICH LOOKED A BIT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...STILL EXPECT LES TO PERSIST...AIDED BY A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH AND THE MORE BROAD 500MB SHORTWAVE SWINGING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WNW WINDS TO BECOME MORE OUT OF THE NW TONIGHT...WITH LES SNOW BANDS MOVING MORE ONSHORE E OF MARQUETTE AS STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCHES CLOSER TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE AN ADDITIONAL 1-2IN OF SNOW FROM IWD UP THROUGH THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND NE OF LINE FROM MARQUETTE TO ERY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 BIGGEST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM ARE WITH THE RETURN OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR AND LIGHT-MODERATE LES. FOR LES CONSIDERATIONS...SOME BREAK UP OF LAKE SUPERIOR ICE HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE STRONG WLY WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED LES ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT WEEK. MON WILL SEE DIMINISHING NW FLOW LES POPS AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS DECREASE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO. WILL SEE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...EACH ONE PULLING DOWN MORE COLD AIR UNTIL A POLAR LOW MOVES TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 12Z THU. 850MB TEMPS AOB -30C MOVE INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN. THU LOOKS TO SEE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE COLDEST. WILL LIKELY BREAK RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...AND POSSIBLY SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...BUT GREATER OF THE CONFIDENCE VERY UNCERTAIN SO DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 WITH WEAKENING LOW PRES REMAINING IN THE VCNTY OF FAR NRN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY AND HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO RIDGE SE FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...BUT ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX SITE. WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 30KT AT KCMX OVERNIGHT THRU THE AFTN...BLSN WILL LIKELY KEEP PREVAILING VIS IN THE LIFR CATEGORY. EXPECT SOME FLUCTUATION WITH VIS IMPROVING TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS AS WELL AS FALLING TO VLIFR. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE WILL BE OCNL -SHSN AT KCMX...WHICH WILL ASSIST THE LOWER VISIBILITIES. DISTURBANCE SHOULD INCREASE -SHSN FREQUENCY TODAY...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN VIS FALLING MORE FREQUENTLY TO BLO 1/2SM. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NW AND DIMINISH SOME... RESULTING IN LESS BLSN. AT KIWD/KSAW...SRN EDGE OF STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS WILL BE NEAR KIWD OVERNIGHT WHILE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT KSAW. DEEPER MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE ROTATING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE A MORE SOLID MVFR CLOUD DECK AS WELL AS SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES. AFTER THE STRONG WINDS OF RECENT DAYS...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT OPEN WATER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO SUPPORT IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN AT KIWD THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 334 AM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY TODAY WILL EXIT INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN TODAY TO SINK ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO PASS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. W GALES 35-40KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF MAINLY CENTRAL AND E LAKE SUPERIOR IN BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW...AND NEARING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NW. LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MANITOBA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND ND THURSDAY MORNING WILL BROADEN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ240>246-263>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 232139 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 439 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AT THIS TIME. THIS UPPER LOW HAS BEEN ROTATING MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REPRESENTED ON THE 12Z KINL SOUNDING. WITH THE OPEN WATER OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS AROUND -22C...HAVE BEEN SEEING LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE OVER NORTHERN ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES. THERE WAS ONE STRONGER BAND THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS. WHERE THE RADAR CAN SAMPLE IT IT WAS INDICATING SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 0.5-1 INCH AN HOUR SOUTH EAST OF STANNARD ROCK WHERE IT HAS BEEN AIDED BY ANOTHER AREA OF OPEN WATER. AS WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS BAND HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT DID GET A REPORT FROM WHITEFISH POINT OF AN ESTIMATED 6-8 INCHES OF SNOW. WOULD EXPECT AMOUNTS THAT HIGH IN NORTHERN LUCE COUNTY WITH THE MOVEMENT BUT THINK AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE ARE REASONABLE SINCE THIS MORNING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...IT WILL SWEEP A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SFC-850MB TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE TROUGHS WILL ACT TO PROVIDE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND TURN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPS OF -23C WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF OVER THE LAKE INSTABILITY WHERE THERE IS OPEN WATER (INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 6-7KFT). THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE ICE COVERAGE...BUT BASED OFF YESTERDAY/S MODIS IMAGE AND LOCATION OF LAKE CLOUDS TODAY...IT APPEARS THERE IS DECENT OPEN WATER FROM TWO HARBORS MINNESOTA TO ISLE ROYALE...THEN EAST-NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO TO THE EAST OF THE KEWEENAW AND TOWARDS MARQUETTE. WHERE ICE CAN BE MADE OUT...THERE HAS BEEN DECENT MOVEMENT WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30KTS. WITH WEAKENING WINDS INCREASING THE RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE 20-30MI AREA OF OPEN WATER OVER THE WEST TONIGHT...THINK THAT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO OCCUR FROM CALUMET SOUTHWEST TO IRONWOOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY AND LOW DEFINITE POPS FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. NORTH OF CALUMET IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN ONCE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO MORE ICE BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THUNDER BAY AND SMALLER GAPS IN THE FIRST 10-15MI SOUTHEAST FROM ISLE ROYALE. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE THE POPS LOWER INTO THE LOW END LIKELY CATEGORY ONCE THE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE. GUSTY THIS EVENING (TO 35MPH)...BUT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEADING TO IMPROVING VISIBILITIES FROM THE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SINCE WE ARE STILL GETTING REPORTS FROM OBS/WEBCAMS/SPOTTERS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2MI AT TIMES...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL COVER THE EVENING TRAVEL PERIOD BEFORE THE WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FARTHER EAST...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LUCE AND THEN TRANSITIONING INTO ALGER COUNTY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE OPEN WATER THAT LIKELY COVERS A DECENT PORTION OF LSZ265. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND PROBABLY SOME LAND BREEZE INFLUENCE...WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE SOME ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT BAND AFFECTING THE COUNTY AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONED THE BAND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING TO AROUND AND JUST EAST OF MUNISING AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH A POTENTIAL FETCH OF 80MI AND SOME UPSTREAM MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCH AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF THE BAND STALLS IN AN AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. EAST OF THERE...THE AMOUNT OF ICE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT AMOUNTS AND ONLY HAVE VALUES IN THE 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCH RANGE. WILL START TO SEE THE AFFECT OF RIDGING UPSTREAM THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING 850MB TEMPERATURES (ALONG WITH SOME DRYING AND BACKING WINDS) FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND FOR POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 THE CWA WILL BE DOMINATED BY LOW WIND CHILLS...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LES FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF W TO NW FLOW OVER GAPS IN THE CONSIDERABLE LAKE ICE COVER. MON NIGHT...THE STRONGEST 850-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND LOWER LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH IA INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL. WRLY FLOW LES BANDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS WINDS VEER TO WNW BEHIND A WEAK SFC TROUGH. WITH CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF OPEN WATER AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 5K FT...MENTIONED LIKELY POPS BUT WITH FCST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ONLY OF AROUND AN INCH OR TWO. TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHRTWV WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT BRINGING IN EVEN COLDER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW PUSHING THE LIGHT LES OVER A GRATER PORTION OF THE ERN CWA. WITH MIN TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE -4F TO -14F RANGE...WIND CHILLS SHOULD ALSO FALL INTO THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. WED-FRI...A STRONGER SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES AS THE POLAR TROUGH MOVES INTO NRN ONTARIO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NW TO NNW BEHIND THIS FEATURE AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -31C THU. WITH THE STRONGER NW WINDS...THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED THU MORNING INTO THE -25 TO -35 RANGE EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY SOME MODIFICATION OVER THE MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FEW CLOUDS BY FRI AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD DROP AT LEAST INTO THE -15 TO -25 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME -30S EVEN POSSIBLE FOR TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. SAT-SUN...THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS BUT WITH THE POLAR TROUGH LINGERING NEAR JAMES BAY...ANOTHER BOUT OF LOWER 850 MB TEMPS AND HIGHER WINDS MAY MOVE IN BY SAT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CONTINUED COLD ON SUN WITH THE ARCTIC RIDGE DOMINATING THE NRN LAKES. BY THE WEEKEND...THE ICE COVER IS LIKELY TO SOLIDIFY...REDUCING LES CHANCES/AMOUNTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1248 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 COLD AIR AND INCREASING MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME OPEN WATER OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE WEST WIND SNOW BELTS AND LARGELY AFFECTING KCMX FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT AT KIWD AND HAVE LOWER VISIBILITIES. BUT THIS TURN IN THE WINDS COULD INFLUENCE KCMX SNOWFALL...AS THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN ICE SHADOW DUE TO THE INCREASED ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE. MAINLY IMPROVED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE WEAKENING WINDS AND IF ICE COVERAGE IS LESS THAN EXPECTED...VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. AT KSAW...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ISN/T TOO FAVORABLE FOR LESS THAN VFR CONDITIONS FROM LAKE EFFECT BUT WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH DID LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HAVE A FEELING THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LEAD TO VALUES RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF VFR/MVFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 435 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 THE WEAKENING LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LEAD TO GRADUALLY DECREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEN SEEING THE GALES PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE STANNARD ROCK AND GRANITE ISLAND OBS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH UPSTREAM OBS GENERALLY IN THE 30KT RANGE...WOULD EXPECT THE EASTERN SITES TO COME DOWN SHORTLY. THUS...WILL ALLOW THE GALE WARNING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AND HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED THE WESTERN LAKE. EVEN WITH THIS DIMINISHMENT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MIZ001- 003. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 280957 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 457 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 457 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 WILL CONTINUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES. COLDEST NOTED SO FAR HAS BEEN -36 AT THE SPINCICH LAKE RAWS...AND -35 AT DOE LAKE. AT THE NWS OFFICE...THE COLDEST WAS -28 WHICH OCCURRED PRIOR TO 4AM /TEMPS WHERE NEARLY STEADY STATE BETWEEN -26 AND -28 FROM MIDNIGHT TO 345AM/. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE EXTREME COLD OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO -11 AT CMX ALREADY THIS MORNING. STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPS IN THE SINGLE TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF S WINDS AROUND 8-12KTS. OTHER THAN TEMPS THIS MORNING THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOW S AND SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN INCOMING SYSTEM FROM WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD IN THE FCST. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW TO FALL PRIOR TO 06Z SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY UPDATING FCST MODELS...ANOTHER SLOW-DOWN MAY BE NEEDED. SLR ON THE ORDER 20-23:1 IN THE POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCED BAND MOVING INTO DELTA AND S SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 2-4IN OF SNOW...OR MORE. HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE SHORELINE...WHEREVER ONSHORE FLOW FOCUSES THE EXPECTED MAIN BAND. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST SATELLITE/MODIS IMAGERY IT SEEMS THAT THE STRONG WINDS OF LATE HAVE RESULTED IN MUCH MORE OPEN WATER OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE MI. CONCERNS REMAIN THROUGH...AS FRIGID TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWS FOR QUICK THIN ICE TO FORM. WAS IMPRESSED TO ALREADY SEE A S-N ORIENTED BAND OFF THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 2-4AM ALONG THE E SHORE OF LAKE MI UP TO THE GARDEN PENINSULA AND WASHINGTON INLAND. OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE SHORES OF LOWER MI /FRANKFORT/. IN OUR LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING IT HAS MOVED AROUND QUITE A BIT ACROSS N LAKE MI. SMALL SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF 0.2 TO NEARLY 0.4IN QPF /HIGHEST OFF THE HIRESWRF/. POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO HANDLE BOTH THE LES AND SYSTEM SNOW FROM 18Z FRIDAY TO 06Z SATURDAY. THE SFC TROUGH OVER W-CENTRAL ND AT 10Z WILL BE OVER CENTRAL MN AT 18Z...AND OVER E UPPER MI AT 06Z. EXPECT SNOW TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE LOW. INCREASED SFC TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. WIND CHILL VALUES PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY SHOULD BE WARMER THAN -25F...RESULTING IN NO WIND CHILL RELATED HEADLINES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 PM EST THU FEB 27 2014 MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES UPR MI WL REMAIN DOMINATED BY VERY COLD AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC BRANCH FLOW IN CANADA THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS THERE WL BE AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY MODERATION TOWARD WED/THU AS THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES A BIT. BUT PRESENCE OF MEAN UPR RDG IN LONGER RANGE MODELS OVER WRN NAMERICA INTO 3/10 INDICATES BLO NORMAL TEMPS WL BE THE RULE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE WEEKS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM FOCUS ON SN AMOUNTS ON FRI NGT/POTENTIAL ADVY WIND CHILLS LATE FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO FCST TO TRACK FM LK SUP INTO SE ONTARIO. FOCUS FOR LATER SHIFTS MAINLY TO TEMPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WL BE ANY LES WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP. NO LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO IMPACT UPR MI ON SAT THRU THU. FRI NIGHT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE VIGOROUS NRN BRANCH WAVE WITH SFC LO OVER NCENTRAL LK SUP AT 00Z SAT HEADING E INTO SE ONTARIO OVERNGT. LARGER SCALE WAD/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOWN ON THE 270-290K SFCS /H85 THRU H65/ AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS SOME UPR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF 120KT H3 JET STREAK PASSING OVER NRN LK SUP/ADJOINING ONTARIO WL SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MAINLY THE E 2/3 OF THE CWA 00Z-06Z SAT BEFORE DRY SLOTTING/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AHEAD OF STRONGER JET MAX END THE PCPN W-E THRU THE NGT. MODELS INDICATE H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY RISING NEAR 2 G/KG AT MNM AT 00Z SAT...WITH S FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI ADDING MORE MSTR DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF ICE COVER. FCST SDNGS SHOW A DEEP DGZ...UP TO 10K FT DEEP AT MNM... SO EXPECT SN/WATER RATIOS MAY REACH 25-30:1. THESE NUMBERS INDICATE 2-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL FLUFFY SN MAY FALL OVER THE SE CWA AFT 00Z SAT BEFORE THE SN ENDS THERE IN THE EARLY MRNGS HRS ON SAT. ANOTHER CONCERN LATER WL BE POTENTIAL FOR ADVY LVL WIND CHILLS OVER AT LEAST THE WRN CWA LATER AT NGT. SINCE THE SFC LO HAS TRENDED TO BE A BIT STRONGER...THE PRES GRADIENT/NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE MAY BE STRONG ENUF TO MAINTAIN STEADIER NW WINDS OVER THE LAND...ESPECIALLY SINCE H925 WINDS UP TO 25-30KT ARE PRESENT UNDER SHARP H85 CAD THAT IS FCST TO DROP THE H85 TEMPS AS LO AS -26 TO -27C OVER THE NW BY 12Z SAT. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE INDICATES SFC TEMPS WL DIP AS LO AS -15F OR SO OVER THE W BY SUNRISE ON SAT. IF WINDS ARE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG... AT LEAST A MARGINAL WIND CHILL ADVY MAY BE NECESARRY FOR THE WRN CWA. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LK SUP WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LES OF SIGNFICANCE. SAT...CWA WL BE DOMINATED BY COLD NW FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND DEPARTING SFC LO MOVING INTO QUEBEC. GENERAL ACYC NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW AND EXTENSIVE ICE COVER OVER LK SUP SHOULD LIMIT LES COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS...BUT GUSTY SFC NW WINDS WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 25 KTS COULD CAUSE SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS WITH BLSN IN OPEN AREAS NEAR LK SUP THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUED BY SIMILAR WX RECENTLY AS WELL AS ADVY WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MRNG BEFORE THE H925 WINDS DIMINISH A BIT LATER. H85 TEMPS ON SAT...THE FIRST DAY OF MARCH...ARE FCST IN THE -25 TO -30C RANGE...SO TEMPS WL CONTINUE WELL BLO NORMAL...PROBABLY AOB RECORD LO DAILY MAXES MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 ABV RANGE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PCPN ON NRN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCE FCST TO IMPACT THE LOWER LKS WITH SOME -SN MIGHT BRUSH THE FAR SCENTRAL AS THIS AREA WL BE UNDER SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX STREAKING ACRS LK SUP AND ON WARM SIDE OF MID LVL FGEN BAND...BUT OVERALL ACYC FLOW/DRYNESS OF THE LLVL AIR ADVECTING INTO THIS AREA WOULD LIMIT PCPN AMOUNTS. MAINTAINED GOING SCHC POPS. SAT NGT/SUN...SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM HI CENTER IN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR LKS UNDER UPR CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN ARCTIC AND POLAR BRANCHES WL BRING A PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY...BUT STILL VERY COLD WX. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME LES/CLDS NEAR LK SUP YET ON SAT EVNG...INCRSG ACYC FLOW/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN WITH EXTENSIVE ICE COVER SHOULD TEND TO END THIS WX. DEPENDING ON HI CLDS ON NRN FRINGES OF DISTURBANCE BRINGING SOME SN TO THE LOWER LKS...SAT NGT COULD BE QUITE FRIGID AGAIN WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS/PWAT UNDER 0.10 INCH. SINCE THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD SUPPRESSING THIS CLD FARTHER S OVERNGT WITH H3 JET AXIS...TENDED TOWARD LO END OF GUIDANCE REFLECTED BY THE GOING FCST. INCRSG MARCH SUN ANGLE/ DAYLIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A HEALTHY REBOUND DURING THE DAY ON SUN...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL WITH FCST H85 TEMPS STILL HOVERING WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF -20C AT 00Z MON. SUN NGT/MON...SUN NGT LOOKS TO BE QUITE CHILLY WITH HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE AREA. LOWERED TEMPS BLO MODEL CONSENSUS ON SUN NGT GIVEN LGT WINDS/LO PWAT/MOCLR SKIES THAT WOULD BE FVRBL FOR LARGE DIURNAL TEMP DROP. SUSPECT THERE WL BE A NUMBER OF -20F TO PERHAPS -30F LO TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WL ALLOW A LARGE DIURNAL RECOVERY ON MON...BUT LIKE SUN MAX TEMPS WL BE STILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL. EXTENDED...SPRAWLING HI PRES MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND WL DOMINATE AT LEAST ON TUE INTO WED...BUT THERE ARE SGNFT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FCSTS ON HOW QUICKLY WAD CLDS AND PCPN WL RETURN TO THE UPR LKS ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DEPARTING HI TO THE E AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV DIGGING SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA. SO HELD ON TO THE CONSENSUS FCST. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE CLDS/POPS...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 AN ARCTIC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRI MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DROP FROM MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON TO IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS LATE AS THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES BY LATE EVENING...VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 429 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2014 MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR WILL LIKELY ACT TO QUICKLY FORM ANOTHER ROUND OF THIN ICE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LINGERING OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR /AS SEEN ON THE LAST FEW VIS SATELLITE IMAGES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS MORNING/TODAY. THE ARCTIC HIGH OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THIS EVENING. A LOW/TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE N PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MIZ013-014. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KF  FXUS63 KMQT 032018 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 318 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. WITH TROF EXTENDING W INTO WRN CANADA... ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO COVER A VAST AREA OF CANADA INTO THE NRN CONUS. HOWEVER...THE COLD IS MODERATING AS 00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF -21C/-17C/-21C AT KINL/KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY...ALL SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HRS AGO. COLD WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS PACIFIC AIR BEGINS TO SPREAD E IN LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. SFC TROF THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT BROUGHT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. A LONE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD/-SHSN BAND EMANATING FROM A PATCH OF OPEN WATER/BKN ICE NEAR ISLE ROYALE WAS EXTENDING SSE AND COMBINING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM SOME OPEN WATER/BKN ICE TO THE LEE OF THE KEWEENAW TO BRING FLURRIES/-SHSN TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES/MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND A VERY DRY COLUMN HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO -10 TO -25F IN GENERAL. TODAY WILL BE A QUIET DAY WITH SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. MODERATING ARCTIC AIR MASS AND SUNSHINE WORKING ON LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS MAY STILL FAIL TO GET ABOVE 10F OVER THE KEWEENAW AND THE NE FCST AREA AS WINDS OFF THE FROZEN LAKE LIMIT MIXING DEPTH. NAM/GEM SHOW A LAKE BREEZE OR MAYBE MORE APPROPRIATE...ICE BREEZE...DEVELOPING INTO THE MARQUETTE AREA THIS AFTN. IF SO...TEMPS MAY FALL BACK SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER RISING INTO THE TEENS. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON YET...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF -SN WILL SPREAD ACROSS UPPER MI AT SOME POINT TONIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES. FCST AREA WILL BE ON THE NRN PORTION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER FORCING AS WELL AS UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/ONTARIO. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE S (LIKELY) WITH CHC TO THE N. WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND 1G/KG AVBL PER 280K SFC (ROUGHLY 700-725MB) AND 6HRS OR SO OF -SN...EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH N TO PERHAPS 1-2INCHES FAR SCNTRL...CLOSER TO STRONGER FORCING. WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPS AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BLO 0F TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MODIS IMAGERY OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATES LAKE SUPERIOR IS NEARLY ICED OVER...SO EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL DON/T EXPECT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. TUESDAY EVENING THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES...WITH THE ONE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AND THE NEXT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY AS THE TUESDAY MORNING WAVE...BUT THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DRIER AIR OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MICHIGAN AND LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA...BUT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATING IT BEING SHALLOW...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND MAINLY INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM ONTARIO AND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH INFLUENCE WITH THIS WAVE...ESPECIALLY WITH A MOSTLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH IN EASTERN ONTARIO WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO VARY ON HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE EVENING...SHOULD SEE A QUICK FALL IN TEMPS BEFORE RETURN FLOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SINCE PWAT VALUES ARE AROUND 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE EVENING...DID LOWER TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BASED OFF THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS ON HAVING LOWS IN THE -5 TO -10 DEGREE RANGE. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND ACROSS THE U.P. LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SNOW. WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...WILL TREND POPS UP IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND THINK SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY (FROM A HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS) AND WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH LAKE SUPERIOR PRETTY MUCH FROZEN OVER. THERE ARE HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GENERALLY DRY...WOULDN/T EXPECT MORE THAN SOME PASSING CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT) WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. AS FOR HIGHS...VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT WARMER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY. 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO MOST OF THE WEEK AND LIMITS HIGHS FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPPER 20S LATE IN THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SOME OF THE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 40 PERCENT) DO SHOW TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME FOR MOST OF THE CWA SINCE FEB 21ST. 12Z GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPS AROUND FREEZING ON MONDAY...SO WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014 WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR COMPLETE ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN/EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. -SN WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT VIS COULD DROP TO IFR FOR A TIME AT KIWD/KSAW. LOOK FOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN THRU 18Z TUE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 514 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014 TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SFC TROF THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/TUE...BRINGING A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL FALL BACK UNDER 20KT TONIGHT THRU TUE. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THU AHEAD OF A LOW PRES TROF APPROACHING FROM THE W. TROF WILL CROSS THE UPPER LAKES FRI...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...ROLFSON  FXUS63 KMQT 122055 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 455 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH CHILLY AIR MOVING TOWARD LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTN WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. FOR OUR AREA...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS LIMITED OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR /MAINLY NEAR ISLE ROYALE AND JUST EAST OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA/ LED TO CLOUDS AND FLURRIES EARLIER TODAY MAINLY OVER NCNTRL CWA AND NEAR KEWEENAW BAY...BUT SFC HIGH WITH VERY DRY AIR PUT END TO THAT BY EARLY AFTN. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...WHICH ALLOWED FOR CRYSTAL CLEAR MODIS SATELLITE IMAGE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS UPR LAKES TONIGHT LEADING TO VERY COLD NIGHT OVER THE CWA. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING BENEATH THE RIDGE WERE BLO 30 BLO OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ONTARIO. THOUGH H95 TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EVEN ON PERIFERY OF BITTER COLD AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MIN TEMPS AT FAVORED COLD SPOTS FALLING TO LESS THAN 20 BLO. LATER TONIGHT...AFT 06Z...HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE H7 SPILLING OUT OF MANITOBA THIS AFTN BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER WEST HALF OF CWA WHICH ALONG WITH A LGT SOUTH WIND MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN RISE...ESPECIALLY WEST. COLDEST TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER EAST CWA WHERE THERE IS LESS IMPACT FM THE CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING RETURN SOUTH WINDS. SHORTWAVE CROSSING FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY RESULTS IN H7-H5/H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER ONTARIO BUT THAT STAYS MOSTLY NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR. THUS...OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW REMAIN OUT OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY. YET...CANNOT COUNT OUT SOME LGT SNOW OR PROBABLY FLURRIES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS SIGNIFICANT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF SHORTWAVE OVER CWA /H85 TEMPS RISE FM -17C OVER UPR MICHIGAN TONIGHT TO -2C BY THURSDAY EVENING/. SOUNDINGS INDICATE BEST MERGER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ OF TEMPS BLO -10C AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL RH WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY AFTN OVER THE EASTERN CWA. MAYBE A BIT OF HELP OFF LK MICHIGAN TOO THOUGH ICE COVERAGE IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE. KEPT POPS LOW FOR ALL AREAS THOUGH AS PRIMARY FORCING FOR SNOW STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL SHOW A LARGE RANGE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 925-850MB OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL ALLOW READINGS OVER FAR WEST TO BE AROUND 40 DEGREES. COOLER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN RESULTS IN READINGS ONLY AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE FAR EAST CWA. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 30S. IF NOT FOR THE EXPECTED BKN CLOUD COVER...WOULD FORECAST EVEN WARMER TEMPS FOR THE WESTERN CWA SIMILAR TO REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 THRU THE LONG TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN THE THEME OF THE COLD SEASON WILL CONTINUE. WITH VARYING DEGREES OF WRN NAMERICA RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...A MEAN TROF WILL REMAIN OVER ERN NAMERICA. EVEN LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...GFS RUNS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF CANADIAN ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD CONTINUED PERSISTENCE OF ERN TROFFING DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGING ALONG OR NEAR THE W COAST. SO...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON MOST DAYS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. THAT SAID...WITH A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE FEATURES TRANSLATING THRU THE MEAN BACKGROUND PATTERN...TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE A FAIR AMOUNT RATHER THAN BEING PERSISTENTLY WAY BLO NORMAL. THIS PATTERN DOESN'T FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN FOR UPPER MI THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LAKES WILL ONLY BE AFFECTED BY CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES PERIODICALLY. PLUS...MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LES. BEGINNING THU NIGHT...SHORTWAVE WILL BE TRACKING ESE THRU THE DAKOTAS AND REACHING ERN MN/NW WI FRI MORNING WHILE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES FROM VCNTY OF LAKE WINNIPEG TO VCNTY OF CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY ALONG AND N OF SFC LOW TRACK WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FORCING COMBINE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR. THUS...SNOW SHOULD MISS MOST OF UPPER MI TO THE N AND E. HOWEVER...WITH MID LEVELS REMAINING MOSTLY DRY...MAY NEED TO CONSIDER -FZDZ WHERE S TO SW WINDS UPSLOPE...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT THE NAM/GFS OVER-FORECASTING SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY OFTEN DO. IF SOME -FZDZ DOES OCCUR...BEST CHC WOULD BE IN 2 AREAS. FIRST IS OVER THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE S TO SW WINDS UP LAKE MICHIGAN ADVECT SOME MOISTURE N OVER ICE COVER WHICH WILL PACK BACK INTO THE N END OF THE LAKE UNDER S/SW WINDS. SECOND IS OVER THE NW FCST AREA WHERE WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE W DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FRI MORNING. WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS...MOSTLY SCHC...IN BOTH AREAS. DEEP MOISTURE WRAPS THRU THE FCST AREA AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS E ACROSS NRN WI/UPPER MI FRI...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF WAVES SWINGING THRU THE UPPER LAKES FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. EXPECT SOME -SHSN ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA FRI-FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. MIGHT SEE SOME RAIN MIXED IN AS WELL FRI BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES. IF THE SHARPER WIND SHIFT ALONG TRAILING ARCTIC FRONT BEHIND SFC LOW MATERIALIZES AS THE NAM SHOWS...THEN THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF FAIRLY DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE W AND NW AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU THE AREA FRI AFTN/EVENING. IF THERE WASN'T SO MUCH ICE ON THE LAKE...THERE WOULD BE A PERIOD OF HVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST MDT LES INTO SAT MORNING. EVEN AS IT IS...THE NAM GENERATES PCPN AMOUNTS OF 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES ACROSS THE KEWEEENAW FRI AND SPREADING S ACROSS FAR WRN UPPER MI FRI NIGHT ALONG COLD FRONT. WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES. ANY LINGERING -SHSN SHOULD GRADUALLY END OR DIMINISH TO FLURRIES DURING THE DAY SAT AS DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 FRI...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD THEN RISE VERY LITTLE SAT AS ARCTIC AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA ON NORTHERLY WINDS. IN FACT...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY FALL A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE N AS THE ARCTIC CHILL IS MAINTAINED AS THE AIR FLOWS ACROSS THE HIGHER ALBEDO ICE/SNOW COVERED LAKE. TEMPS MAY END UP IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AFTN. WITH DRYING AIR MASS AND ANY OPEN WATER AREAS OR BKN ICE FREEZING UP AS WINDS DIMINISH...SKIES SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY CLEAR SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A BITTERLY COLD NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER JUST 15PCT OF NORMAL). SFC HIGH CENTER WILL STILL BE OFF TO THE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR...SO IT WON'T BE A PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. HOWEVER...TRENDS ARE FOR HIGH TO RIDGE INTO UPPER MI A LITTLE QUICKER...OR IN THE CASE OF THE GEM...THE HIGH DOES REACH UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. WILL OPT FOR MINS IN MANY CASES WELL BLO THE LOWEST GUIDANCE...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPS OVER THE W...CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC HIGH. EXPECT MINS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO E AND TEENS BLO ZERO W WITH TRADITIONAL COLDS SPOTS OVER THE INTERIOR W WELL DOWN INTO THE -20S...POTENTIALLY -30F. IF SFC HIGH PRES ARRIVES QUICKER...TEMPS WILL BE COLDER ACROSS THE BOARD WITH MORE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS REACHING -30F OR LOWER. SUNDAY WILL START SUNNY...AND THEN SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE W DURING THE AFTN. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR MID MAR AS MORNING 850MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -18 TO -21C. WITH SFC HIGH DRIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES...IT WILL BE COLDEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF THE ICE COVER THRU THE DAY. HIGHS PROBABLY WON'T GET MUCH ABOVE 10F ALONG THE LAKE...AND MAY EVEN STAY BLO 10F AT SOME LOCATIONS. IN THE INTERIOR...SUNSHINE WORKING ON THE LOWER ALBEDO FORESTED TERRAIN SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 20. MIN TEMPS SUN NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST SFC HIGH MOVES AWAY AND HOW FAST HIGH/MID CLOUDS INCREASE. TEMPS OVER THE E HAVE THE BEST CHC TO PLUMMET IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING STEADY. WILL INCLUDE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO IN THAT AREA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO W. IT IS NOTED THAT THE ECWMF IS TRENDING TO HOLD MORE HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER LAKES SUN NIGHT...A TREND THAT CONTINUES ON INTO MON/TUE/WED AS WELL. IF SO...SUN NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN REFLECTED IN THIS FCST. MON THRU WED...AS JUST MENTIONED...THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD MAINTAINING MORE SFC HIGH PRES INTO THE UPPER LAKES MON THRU WED AS IT KEEPS DEEPER TROFFING OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE NE CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING IN OFF THE PACIFIC TO BE SHUNTED FARTHER S...MISSING THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE THE GEM HAS A SIMILAR LOOK...WILL TEND TO FAVOR THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEP ANY EXPLICIT MENTION OF SNOW OUT OF THE FCST MON-WED. IF THE ECMWF IDEA IS CORRECT...TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE LOWER THAN REFLECTED IN THIS FCST...ESPECIALLY SO AT NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT KSAW WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS BY THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AT ALL THE TAF SITES AND THESE WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ON THURSDAY. LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON THURSDAY AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES...BUT DID NOT MENTION ATTM. NO REAL REDUCTION TO VSBY IS EXPECTED FROM ANY SNOW THAT WOULD OCCUR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 AFTER LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25 KTS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SETTLE DOWN BRIEFLY BELOW 20 KTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WINDS DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KTS BY SUNDAY. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...JLA MARINE...JLA  FXUS63 KMQT 040928 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 428 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 EXACT DETAILS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT. NW WIND LES IS BEING IMPACTED BY SHEETS OF ICE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOOKING AT MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MADE THAT DIFFICULT...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS EXTENSIVE ICE COVER S-SSE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS LOOKS TO DECREASE LES AMOUNTS/COVERAGE BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING. ADDITIONALLY...ICE COVER OVER THE ERN LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG LAND BREEZE/CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MUNISING AND WHITEFISH POINT...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THAT COVERS SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...AS FOR WHAT IS GOING ON NOW WE ARE SEEING LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP FORCED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND NW WIND LES RAMPING UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS CROSSED LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS RESULTING IN LITTLE CONTRIBUTION TO ACCUMULATIONS. MEANWHILE...LES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS 850MB TEMPS DECREASE FROM AROUND -20C CURRENTLY TO AROUND -27C BY 00Z THU. AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN...THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE LESS IN THE DGZ SO SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 20 TO 1 BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BOOSTING LES AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS INCREASE TO AROUND 11KFT. WITH MORE LIMITED SNOW RATIOS...THINK THAT VIS REDUCTION FROM THE SMALL FLAKE SIZE AND BLOWING SNOW /GUSTS TO 35MPH ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR/ WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD DURING THE EVENT. HAVE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON UP TO 7 INCHES TODAY AND NEAR GRAND MARAIS UP TO 6 INCHES. OF COURSE...THESE AMOUNTS /ESPECIALLY OVER THE E/ ARE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG AND WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE SETS UP SO AMOUNTS COULD EASILY BE GREATER...MAINLY OVER THE E. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. SHOULD SEE A STEADY DIMINISHING TREND TO LES FROM W TO E TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...LEADING TO REDUCED INVERSIONS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRIER AIR. HAVE KEPT SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST ALL NIGHT FOR THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MUNISING AS WINDS WILL ARC ENOUGH ACROSS THE LAKE TO FAVOR SNOW IN THESE AREAS. AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AND 1-2 INCHES BETWEEN ONTONAGON/ROCKLAND AND HOUGHTON TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 0C /LAKE SHORE/ TO -15C /INTERIOR W/ RANGE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE WIND CHILLS READINGS OF -20 TO -25...BUT WINDS WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND VALUES WILL BE BORDER AT WORST. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY BE FALLING MODERATELY IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH THE FAVORABLE INVERSION HEIGHTS (RISING TO 10KFT). WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFINITE POPS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (FROM A HIGH IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS) MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION QUICKLY LOWERING AND WINDS BACKING...LEADING TO LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. OVER THE EAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LAND BREEZE OFF ONTARIO AND THE ICE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AIDING IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE DOMINATE BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND WHITEFISH POINT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT WILL SHOW SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS (TOWARDS 3 INCHES) DURING THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO LARGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER LOCATED ABOVE THE DGZ AND PRODUCING SMALL FLAKES. WHILE THIS WILL BE EFFECT AT REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE BAND...THE WEAKENING WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE IMPACT OF THE BLOWING SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE BAND. WITH THOSE BACKING WINDS AND LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR WEST OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL PROVIDE GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS IN THAT AREA (TEENS BELOW ZERO). WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...DON/T EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT WIND CHILL HEADLINES BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO. MUCH OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OFF ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THAT QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE (AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH) DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/FORCING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WILL SHOW LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THAT AREA...BUT AT LEAST MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE QUICK DEPARTURE OF THE WAVE WILL GIVE A VERY QUICK BREAK OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN TURN THE LOCATION OF THE BEST MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOVING ACROSS PART OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH...SHOULD SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT (TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT ON SATURDAY). MODELS ARE STILL VARYING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY (FROM A HIGH IN CENTRAL CANADA)...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH KEEPING INVERSION HEIGHTS BELOW 4-5KFT...DON/T EXPECT THE AMOUNTS TO BE TOO MUCH BUT WILL STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE AND LOW LIKELY VALUES FOR THE FAVORED NORTHERLY WIND AREA (ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS). THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT (MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY) WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF ANY LAKE EFFECT OCCURRING UNDER THE VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT THE WINDS TO VEER ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO PUSH ANY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT OFFSHORE. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL JUST HAVE SILENT POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 AT KCMX...APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING...RESULTING IN A RETURN OF PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED EVENING. INCREASING WINDS WED MORNING WILL ALSO FURTHER REDUCE VIS DUE TO BLSN. AT KIWD/KSAW...AS WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING...THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME OVERLAKE WIND TRAJECTORIES. EXPECT - SHSN TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD WHERE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KSAW. WED EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KIWD AND KSAW WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 424 AM EST WED FEB 4 2015 NW WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN BACK SW AND STRENGTHEN ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT PASSES LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE SW WINDS MAY GUST TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES THU AFTN/EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO 15-25KT OUT OF THE N FOR SAT. WINDS WILL STAY MOSTLY IN THE 15-25KT RANGE INTO SUN AS THEY VEER EASTERLY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ002- 003-006-007. LAKE SUPERIOR... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TITUS LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...TITUS  FXUS63 KMQT 212008 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A GENERALLY QUIET MID-LATE FEBRUARY DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SEVERAL SUBTLE FEATURES AFFECTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE MAIN STORY IS THE CONSISTENTLY GROWING ICE COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY GIVES A PRETTY GOOD VIEW OF THE ICE COVER TODAY...WHICH ALMOST COVERS THE ENTIRE LAKE. THERE ARE A FEW GAPS OR SLUSHY AREAS...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHORELINE...NEAR ISLE ROYALE...OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FINALLY A GAP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH THE PROPER WIND DIRECTION (AROUND 340-350)...THERE WAS A STRONGER BAND THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS STARTED TO BACK AND LIMIT THE FETCH OVER THE WATER. THAT STRONGER BAND DID LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATION NEAR IRONWOOD...ALTHOUGH WEBCAMS INDICATED IT WAS VERY LOCALIZED. THESE VERY LOCALIZED AND NARROW BANDS ARE THE NORM WITH THE SMALL AREAS OF BREAKS IN THE ICE. THAT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE PARTS OF THE KEWEENAW AND ESPECIALLY ALGER COUNTY WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION IS PARALLEL TO THE LONGER STRETCH OF SLUSHY ICE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE. WHERE THESE BANDS HAVE BEEN LOCATED...THEY HAVE BEEN PRODUCING UP TO AN HALF INCH AN HOUR ACCUMULATION...BUT ARE ONLY AROUND 2 MILES WIDE. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL CU DEVELOPED AGAIN OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND HAS LED TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON. WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...2PM TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AT KIWD/KCMX AND INTO THE LOWER 20S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER SOUTH INTO WISCONSIN...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. AS THOSE PUSH EAST...THINK THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CWA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH MID EVENING. EXPECT THE NARROW BAND LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO STAY FAIRLY STEADY STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING (ALTHOUGH THE DIURNAL CU WITH DIMINISH)...AS THERE ARE LITTLE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT. BUT AS MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE LAKE EFFECT COVERAGE TO EXPAND. THIS IS DUE TO THE 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM AROUND -17C AT THE PRESENT TIME TO AROUND -26C AT 12Z SUNDAY. WITH THAT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR...EXPECT THERE TO BE ENOUGH HEAT FLUX THROUGH THE THIN ICE AREAS AND ICE FREE GAPS TO PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING FOR LAKE EFFECT. THERE ARE A COUPLE CONCERNS THOUGH. FIRST...MODELS SHOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE BELOW 800MB DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING...WONDERING IF THAT IS A LITTLE OVERDONE ON THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF. VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON ISN/T SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING FOR CLOUDS IN THAT AREA OF ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...WITH THE 12Z GEM HAVING THE BEST HANDLE ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN THAT AREA...WITH TREND THAT DIRECTION FOR MOISTURE POTENTIAL. THIS KEEPS POPS GENERALLY IN THE ISOLATED- SCATTERED REALM FOR THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF THE OPENINGS IN THE ICE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL LIMIT INVERSION HEIGHTS TO THE 3-5KFT RANGE. IF THERE WAS MORE OPEN WATER...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE STRONGER BANDS CAPABLE OF REACHING 7KFT...BUT THE LIMITED OVER THE LAKE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY LOCALIZED BANDS IN CHECK. THAT COLD AIR WILL TRANSITION THE CLOUD FROM BEING WITHIN THE DGZ AND THE FLUFFIER FLAKES SEEN TODAY TO A SMALL/FINE FLAKE SNOW. WHILE THAT WILL KEEP THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK...IT WILL HELP TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITHIN THOSE NARROW BANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN GUSTINESS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW BLOWING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH THE CONCERNS IN THE MOISTURE AND EXPECTED VERY LOCALIZED NATURE OF THE BANDS...WILL KEEP TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES IN THE FAVORED NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND LOCATIONS. AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL PICKUP SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING LOWS FOR TONIGHT (TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO) AND WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE EXISTING WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THEN WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL SEE MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN AT OR BELOW ZERO FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES...MAYBE REACHING 6 DEGREES...WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT OUR OFFICE FOR FEB 22 IS -5...WHICH IS THE FORECASTED HIGH FOR TOMORROW. BUT...WHEN FACTORING IN WHAT THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY BE AT MIDNIGHT (AROUND ZERO)...WE SHOULDN/T BREAK THAT RECORD. SINCE THE WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE WEST STAY IN THE -20S AND FEEL CARRYING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY INTO MONDAY MORNING IS FINE OVER THE WEST. OVER THE EAST...STILL HAVE WIND CHILLS RISING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT SINCE THEY QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING...OPTED TO EXTEND THOSE ADVISORIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO SIMPLIFY THINGS AFTER DISCUSSING IT WITH THE LONG TERM SHIFT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 506 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 THE PERSISTENT 500MB TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A BRIEF RIDGE SETTING UP AROUND 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY OFF THE 20/18Z GFS. THE 20/18Z AND 21/00Z ECMWF WERE LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGING...RESULTING IN MORE OF A GENERAL W-E FLOW. INCLUDED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 10-15KTS...TO INCORPORATE SOME OF THE SMALLER SNOW FLAKES THAT HAVE BEEN VERY AFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VIS. AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD AT 12Z SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND NW WINDS AROUND 5-10KTS PUSHING WIND CHILLS TO -25 TO - 30F CWA WIDE. WIND CHILL ADVISORY POSTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WILL GO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT MENOMINEE /WHICH MAY BE A BIT WARMER/. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR THE W HALF OF UPPER MI THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ON WAA SW WINDS MONDAY NIGHT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY...AND TOP OUT TUESDAY IN THE 20S. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO AROUND -10C AT 12Z TUESDAY. THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF COLD WAVES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR BEHIND...HOVERING OVER ONTARIO TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE 500MB LOW. WHILE THE LOW ITSELF SHIFTS INTO QUEBEC...EXPECT THE COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -27C OVER UPPER MI WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST MORNINGS...THANKS TO RELATIVELY LIGHT NW WINDS AND ONLY A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR W LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE THE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE NEARLY FROZEN LAKE SUPERIOR. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT E OF MARQUETTE THROUGH WHITEFISH POINT...WHICH WILL SEE THE LONGEST FETCH OFF ANY OPEN WATERS WITH THE N OR NW WINDS THAT WILL BE DOMINATING MUCH OF THIS FCST PERIOD. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARLY STACKED SFC-500MB LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 06Z TUESDAY CROSSING JAMES BAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THE GFS IS PAINING 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE ECMWF IS LESS IMPRESSIVE. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY LARGE SCALE CHANGES FROM THE CONSENSUS/MODEL BLEND AT THIS TIME...UNTIL A MORE STEADY SOLUTION IS ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 112 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 EVEN WITH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN OVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH HEAT COMING OFF THE LAKE TO LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS SNOWBELTS. THE STRONGEST SNOW IS OCCURRING RIGHT AT KIWD THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A POCKET OF OPEN WATER OR SLUSH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A FETCH TO LEAD TO VERY FLUFFY LAKE EFFECT OVER THE SITE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NW AND A LESS FAVORABLE FETCH FOR THE SITE. AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND LAKE INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIMITED GAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT. WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SMALLER FLAKES AND BETTER VISIBILITY REDUCERS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR KIWD/KCMX TO SEE REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS. BUT...IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE WIND DIRECTION WITH THE ICE COVERAGE. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE...ALSO DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING UPSTREAM MOISTURE...OPTED TO LEAVE VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES AT LOW END MVFR. AT KSAW...A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE AND WINDS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...HAVE JUST BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT TO PRIMARILY KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 308 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEPARTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS LEADING TO ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BRUSH THE AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35-40KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30KTS AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY TO NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 220847 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 347 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 NEXT QUICK HITTING PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY SURGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WITH SUB -30C 85H AIR COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW ZERO AND EXPECT MANY AREAS TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO TODAY. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY...WIND CHILLS WILL HOLD IN THE -20 TO -30 F RANGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BIGGEST CHALLENGE OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW. YESTERDAYS MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOVING AND COMPRESSING THE ICE PACK TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...ICE COVERAGE OVER THE DEEPEST PART OF THE LAKE IS STILL PRETTY THIN. BASED ON HOW COLD THE AIR MOVING OVER THE LAKE TODAY WILL BE...EXPECT HEAT FLUXES THROUGH THE ICE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDING FOR NORTH NORTHWESTERLY WIND FAVORED AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. LATEST IR IMAGERY IS HINTING AT SOME OF THESE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED OVER ICE BANDS. WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION EVEN WHERE THE BANDS DO OCCUR...OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT...NOTHNG MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MANY TIMES RECENTLY...THE FINE SNOWFLAKES IN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE EFFICIENT AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINSIH SOME TONIGHT...BUT AS THEY DO TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFF INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. EVEN WITH WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO RANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY GOING THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY AND ADD MENOMINEE COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 358 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2015 PERSISTENT HI AMPLITUDE UPR RDG OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN NAMERICA/DEEP TROF OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NAMERICA WL PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT THAT WL BRING ARCTIC SURGES INTO THE UPR LKS THRU MID WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH...FALLING HGTS OVER THE W WL ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SOME AIRMASS MODERATION. BUT WITH DRY HI PRES FCST TO BE DOMINATING...LO TEMPS MAY STILL BE QUITE COLD DESPITE THE MORE SEASONABLE H85 AND DAYTIME TEMPS. SUN NGT/MON...SPRAWLING ARCTIC HI PRES CENTERED OVER SW MN AT 00Z MON IS FCST TO SLIDE SLOWLY S AND OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z TUE. FOR UPR MI...THIS TRACK WL RESULT IN A STEADILY BACKING NW TO SW WIND. SCATTERED LK EFFECT SN SHOWERS OFF BREAKS IN THE ICE INTO THE NW WIND SN BELTS ON SUN NGT...LIMITED GREATLY BY LARGER SCALE ACYC H925 FLOW AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE FM 3-4K FT TO 2K FT AGL AS WELL AS THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...WL TEND TO SHIFT OFF INTO LK SUP ON MON. STEADY H925 WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE ON SUN NGT/MON MRNG IN THE PRESENCE OF H85 TEMPS MODERATING STEADILY DUE TO WAA/SUBSIDENCE FM ABOUT -30C AT 00Z MON TO -20C AT 18Z MON JUSTIFY GOING WIND CHILL HEADLINES. SINCE THE BACKING FLOW WL LIMIT LK MODERATION INTO THE E...AN AREA WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIR...OPTED TO EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVY HEADLINE FOR THE ERN CWA THRU MON MRNG EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE ADVY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS ON SUN AFTN. ACTUAL AIR TEMPS ON SUN NGT COULD BE QUITE COLD AND UNDER -20F OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF...WHERE SFC WINDS MIGHT BE A BIT LIGHTER CLOSE TO THE HI CENTER PASSING TO THE SW. UNDER THE TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE HI SINKING INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND NEXT SHRTWV/SFC LO DIGGING SEWD INTO NW ONTARIO ON MON...SW H925 WINDS ARE FCST TO INCRS TO 35-45KTS BY 00Z TUE. H85 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RISE TOWARD -10C OVER THE W TO -15C OVER THE E BY 00Z TUE IN THE INCRSG WAA...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RECOVER INTO THE TEENS OVER THE W AND UP TO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE E UNDER INCRSG HI/MID CLDS RELATED TO THE WAA. MON NGT/TUE...SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LO MOVING INTO FAR NW ONTARIO ON MON EVNG ARE FCST TO SLIDE SEWD TO THE NE OF LK SUP DURING THIS TIME...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FROPA OVER UPR MI ON TUE MRNG. SOME LIGHT SN IN THE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WL OVERSPREAD UPR MI FM THE NW ON MON NGT AND PERSIST INTO TUE MRNG BEFORE THE COLD FROPA. SINCE THE MSTR INFLOW WL BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH H7 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY FCST IN THE 1.0-1.5 G/KG RANGE...AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WL NEED TO BE OVERCOME...ACCOMPANYING SN ACCUMS SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE HIER POPS/QPF WL BE OVER THE NE CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK/LONGER DURATION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/AREA OF STRONGER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC. ALTHOUGH THE DGZ IS FCST TO BE RATHER DEEP AND INCLUDE MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED UVV...STRONG WINDS MIGHT BREAK UP THE DENDRITES TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. BUT THE SMALLER FLAKES WOULD BE MORE EFFICIENTLY BLOWN ABOUT BY THE GUSTY VEERING WINDS THAT WL BE OCCURRING UNDER THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FCST AND RESTRICT VSBY. WITH H85 THERMAL RDG OVER UPR MI ON MON NGT AND THE GUSTY WINDS...EXPECT RELATIVELY HI MIN TEMPS AND NO NEED FOR MORE WIND CHILL HEADLINES DESPITE THE GUSTY WINDS THAT WL MAKE THE AIR FEEL COLDER. WSHFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING THE TUE MRNG COLD FROPA WL DRAG ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS BACK INTO THE CWA IN THE AFTN... DROPPING H85 TEMPS TOWARD -20C AGAIN BY 00Z WED AND ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED LES. TUE NGT/WED...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FCSTS H85 TEMPS TO FALL AS LO AS -28C TO -30C ARND 12Z WED IN COLD NNW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CNDN HI PRES MOVING TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. THERE MAY BE SOME LES OFF BREAKS IN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER...BUT THE BIGGEST THREAT WL BE WIND CHILLS AT LEAST APRCHG ADVY CRITERIA AS H925 WINDS ARE FCST UP TO 30- 35 KTS DURING THE DESTABILIZING PERIOD OF CAA THAT WL DROP MIN TEMPS BLO ZERO AGAIN. EXTENDED...THE ARCTIC HI OVER SCENTRAL CANADA ON WED IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND INTO THE UPR MS RIVER VALLEY ON THU... THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON FRI...AND THEN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SAT UNDER SLOWLY RISING HGTS IN THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF TROFFING OVER WRN NAMERICA. THE RESULT WL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WX. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LES MAINLY E OF MARQUETTE INTO THU WHILE THE LLVL FLOW IS STILL NW...BACKING WINDS TOWARD THE W AND THEN SW WL SHIFT ANY SN SHOWERS OUT INTO LK SUP. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO MODERATE TO ABOUT -15C BY FRI/SAT...SO THERE SHOULD BE WARMING DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST TOWARD 20F WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. BUT FCST PWAT AS LO AS 0.05 INCH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY LO OVERNGT TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IF THE MODELS SHOWING A FLATTER PRES GRADIENT/ LIGHTER WINDS ARE CORRECT. MORE CLDS MAY ARRIVE NEXT SAT IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING) EVEN WITH MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN OVER...THERE WAS STILL ENOUGH HEAT COMING OFF THE LAKE TO LEAD TO SOME SCT LAKE EFFECT IN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLIER TODAY. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAINS FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIMITED BREAKS IN THE LAKE ICE. WITH THE SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SMALLER FLAKES AND THUS MORE EFFECTIVE VISIBILITY REDUCERS...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR KIWD/KCMX TO SEE REDUCTIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS. BUT...IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE WIND DIRECTION WITH THE ICE COVERAGE. DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE...ALSO DUE TO MODELS OVERDOING UPSTREAM MOISTURE...OPTED TO LEAVE VISIBILITIES AT THOSE SITES AT LOW END MVFR. AT KSAW...A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE AND WINDS NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE...HAVE JUST BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK AND SHIFT THE LAKE EFFECT TO PRIMARILY KCMX. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 THE NEXT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR IS CURRENTLY SURGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-30KTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BUT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL LEAD TO WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35-40KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO 30KTS AND REMAIN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KTS ON TUESDAY. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE STRONG HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST /11 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014-084-085. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM CST MONDAY FOR MIZ012. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...MZ  FXUS63 KMQT 012123 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 423 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN TROF...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME -SHSH/FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPPER MI TODAY IN VCNTY OF SFC TROF WHICH IS NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING UPPER MI. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS SHIFTS ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE...850MB TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND A ROUGHLY 3KFT DGZ LAYER BTWN ROUGHLY 2K AND 5KFT...WOULD NORMALLY BE CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING SEVERAL HRS OF HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IF THE LAKE WASN'T MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THAT SAID...THE BRISK SW TO W WINDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE OPENED UP SOME NOTABLE GAPS IN THE ICE...SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED MORE PERSISTENT LES AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. FROM TODAYS MODIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT GAPS IN THE ICE ARE NOTED FROM AROUND THE HURON ISLANDS DOWN PAST GRANITE ISLAND AND OVER TO N OF MUNISING...AND ALSO IN THE AREA E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHICH HAS CERTAINLY HAD A TENDENCY TO OPEN UP OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WHEN WINDS ARE SW. WILL THUS HIT HIGHEST POPS AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF THESE OPEN WATER AREAS THIS EVENING (JUST N OF IRONWOOD TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALSO ALGER COUNTY). STRONG NEGATIVE DYNAMICS TAKE OVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO LES INTENSITY WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS... WNW/NW FLOW LES SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE PASSES. TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W TOWARD THE WI BORDER SHOULD FALL DOWN TOWARD ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F. ANY LINGERING LES TO THE E OF MARQUETTE WILL END BY MON AFTN UNDER WAA/BACKING WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE (BY MID AFTN 850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND -12C). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO START THE DAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH DRY AIR MASS AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMAL TROF. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S...COOLEST OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO DEPARTING THERMAL TROF. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 ...WIDESPREAD SNOW TUESDAY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE... PRIMARY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK IS LIMITED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CHANCES WILL BE HELD DOWN AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. TEMPS REBOUND AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY AND COULD STAY AT SIMILAR LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A TWO-PIECED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD REGION. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW SLIDES FM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE SFC LOW ARRIVES ALONG THE NEB/IOWA BORDER. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH MAXIMIZES OVERNIGHT BTWN H85 AND H5. LIFT IS PRETTY STRONG WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION...SO SHOULD SEE LGT SNOW BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD WI BORDER WITH LOWEST 100MB GRADUALLY SATURATING. HINTS ARE THERE THAT THE INITIAL SNOW COULD BE DRIVEN BY FGEN...BUT WHERE MAX RIBBON OF HEAVIER SNOW SETS UP IS NOT CERTAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS IT MORE OVER WESTERN CWA...BUT THIS IS AT ODDS WITH NAM DOMINATED SREF OUTPUT AND SEEMS TOO FAR NORTH AS IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW ON INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW ON TUESDAY ON EDGE OF GREATER H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAINLY IS MAXIMIZED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN OUT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN. H7 MIXING RATIOS GFS/ECMWF STAY BLO 3G/KG THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. MIXING RATIOS INTO THE SYSTEM AND BLEND OF QPF FM GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SLR/S CENTERED ON 15:1...SUGGEST ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL SCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO GRAPHICS. PHASING BTWN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES NEVEN REALLY TAKES OFF SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN CORE OF UPPER JET ENERGY STAYS OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CHANCE POPS LINGER EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE EAST...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA. INITIALLY LAKE EFFECT IN WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ON TUESDAY EVENING PROBABLY STAYS ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD AIR /H85 TEMPS WARMER THAN -15C/ AND MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE H8-H7 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BLO -20C OVER LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN INVERSIONS RISING UP TO A MAX OF 8KFT WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE THE HIGH ICE COVERAGE...SCT POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME HELP FM DAYTIME HEATING AS THE HYBRID LAKE EFFECT SEASON IS UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGHER SUN ANGLE. WITH NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE LK SUPERIOR SHORELINES...PROBABLY WILL HAVE BLSN/POOR VSBY IN THE SNOW BELTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. EVEN MINUS BLSN...LES WILL BE GOOD AT REDUCING VSBY AS THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE BECOMING SMALLER. H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BLO -25C BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPS WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WINDS BACKING W-WSW BY THURSDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH ANY SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE. TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TANK WELL UNDER 10 BLO ZERO. MAY SEE MARGINALLY LOW WIND CHILLS ON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FARTHER INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE NEARLY CALM. STILL COLD ON THURSDAY AS CORE OF COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY HEADS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD UPPER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WARMING FIRST OCCURS ALOFT THEN MAKES ITS WAY TO SFC BY FRIDAY AFTN. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SWEEPS ACROSS LEAVING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS LATER ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT DOES NOT SYNC UP...SO NOT EXPECING MUCH IN WAY OF LGT SNOW. BETTER LINKING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS IDEA FM GFS AND ECMWF. COLD AIR NOT AS EMPHATIC FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING H85 TEMPS MAINLY WARMER THAN -12C. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL JUST RUN WITH CONSENSUS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RESULT IS DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LGT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 SFC LOW PRES TROF AND ASSOCIATED -SHSN/MVFR CIGS WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. AT KCMX...A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VIS APPEAR LIKELY THRU 19Z TO 20Z. OTHERWISE...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND TROF SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DESPITE A MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR. RECENT SW WINDS MAY HAVE OPENED UP AN AREA OF WATER E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. IF SO...SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSH MAY OCCUR AT KIWD THIS EVENING UNDER LOW-LEVEL WNW FLOW. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT WITH OCNL -SHSN. BACKING WINDS MON MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD. AT KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON MORNING UNDER DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS. LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT. EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROLFSON LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...JLA  FXUS63 KMQT 042008 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 308 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. BENEATH THIS SHORTWAVE...RAP ANALYZED 850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -23 TO -26C RANGE OVER THE CWA AND HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE AREAS DOWN WINDS OF THE GAPS IN OR SLUSHY AREAS OF ICE. BASED OFF TODAY/S VISIBLE AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOSE AREAS ARE OVER MUCH OF LSZ162 AND THEN AREA NORTHEAST OF ISLE ROYALE AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. AREAS WITH ENOUGH FETCH OVER THOSE PARTIALLY OPEN AREAS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MAINLY IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS. ELSEWHERE...THE INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. THIS DIURNAL HEATING HAS HELPED MAINTAIN SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CWA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...HAVE SEEN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED THUS FAR AT KCMX HAS BEEN 41MPH AND WHEN THE SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH IT HAS DROPPED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE. BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THOSE POOR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE VERY LOCALIZED RIGHT WITHIN THE STRONGER BANDS SEEN SLIDING NORTH ON VISIBLE SATELLITE. NORTH OF THAT AREA OVER KEWEENAW COUNTY...WEBCAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A VERY COLD AFTERNOON IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WITH 2PM TEMPERATURES AROUND BETWEEN 2 AND 5 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND WARMER HEADING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. THE FOCUS ON THE FORECAST WILL BE THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT AND COLD LOWS TONIGHT. FIRST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE LARGER SCALE SUPPORT TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH TTHURSDAYMORNING (INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS)...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO GET A BETTER ICE ANALYSIS AND THAT HAS FINALLY LED TO THEM STARTING TO SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT FOR AREAS DOWN WIND OF THE OPEN AREAS. WHILE THAT IS SOME HELP...OPTED TO FOCUS ICE OBSERVATIONS ON SATELLITE AND THEN FOLLOW THE MEAN 925-850MB FLOW FROM THE MODELS TO COME UP WITH THE LAKE EFFECT POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELIES) AROUND THE ONTONAGON/ALGER COUNTY AREAS THIS EVENING WITH THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS STILL IN PLACE. BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF WINDS BACKING TOWARDS A NORTHWEST WIND DIRECTION LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE BANDS INTO THOSE MORE NW WIND FAVORED AREAS FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BACKING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. AS THE WINDS BACK...INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 5KFT AND WITH SOME MODERATION OF THE TEMPS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR WILL DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TTHURSDAYMORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HEADING INTO TTHURSDAYAFTERNOON. BUT THINK THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH WILL LIKELY LIMIT MUCH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN AREAS IN LSZ162. DID HAVE SOME CONCERNS ON THE REDUCED VISIBILTIES AT KCMX THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...BUT LOOKING AT WEBCAMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST CONDITIONS OF 1/4-1/2MI ARE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE OPEN AREAS AROUND THE AIRPORT. OTHERWISE...WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES LIMITING ACCUMULATIONS...SHOULDN/T SEE MUCH IMPACT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT. SHOULD SEE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP AFTER SUNSET AND CLEAR SKIES AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...SHOULD SEE LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BELOW AND EVEN 20S BELOW ZERO AT THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS. WITH THE DECOUPLING OOCCURRINGDURING THE EVENING AND LIMITED PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT WINDS TO FALL TO 5MPH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL PROBABLY NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS. BUT WITH BOTH WINDS AND WIND CHILL VALUES LOOKING TO BE VERY MARGINAL...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. DEBATED AN SPS...BUT NOT SURE IF THE WINDS WOULD EVEN WARRANT IT AND OPTED TO STICK WITH THE MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS SHOULD START TO TREND WARMER TOMORROW UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 254 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. 00Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 00Z FRI. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS EAST THU NIGHT INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WILL GO DRY FOR THU NIGHT AND THEN HAVE FLURRIES FOR FRI FOR THE CWA WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE HAVING LIMITED MOISTURE FOR FRI. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES OR WEATHER. HAVE TEMPERATURES RISING ON THU NIGHT WITH A NON DIURNAL CURVE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST 12Z SUN WITH A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE REST OF THE U.S. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS CLIPPER IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA 12Z MON ON THE MANUAL PROGS WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON TUE WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN FOR WED. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL START WARMING UP WITH TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE CLIPPER SYSTEMS HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE COLD AIR TO WORK WITH AND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANY PCPN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS LED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF THE LIMITED GAPS IN THE ICE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. AT THE PRESENT TIME...THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF KIWD...BUT EXPECT THE DIURNAL/SHORTWAVE DRIVEN CLOUDS TO PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AT KIWD AROUND TAF TIME. THEN AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAVE BROUGHT VISIBILITIES DOWN. WITH THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS SINKING FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST INTO KIWD WAS LOW AND LEFT CEILINGS AT MVFR FOR NOW. THE STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW AT KCMX WILL COMBINE WITH THE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...THE FETCH OFF THE OPEN WATER WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE BROUGHT UP VISIBILITIES WITH THE WEAKENING WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING. FINALLY AT KSAW...THE COMBINED DIURNAL AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING AS THE SNOW GOES DOWN. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A SNOW SHOWER SNEAKS INTO THE SITE (AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY)...BUT OPTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 THE WEST-NORTHWEST GALES TO 35KTS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH BELOW GALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE GOING ENDING TIMES FOR THE GALE WARNING ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET THEM EXPIRE AS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS). FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY. OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW 30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS. WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY...THE ICE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAS BEEN SHIFTING AROUND AND BECOME BROKEN UP OVER LSZ162. WHILE THE COLD TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO SOME GROWTH TODAY...EXPECT THE QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO LEAD TO THAT ZONE TO BE MORE WATER THAN ICE AND OPTED TO START ADDING WAVES BACK IN FOR THAT ZONE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ265. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...SRF MARINE...SRF  FXUS63 KMQT 140929 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 529 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT. A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL RESULT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS ON MONDAY AND FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY ALONG WITH ACTUAL OBSERVED TEMPS ON MONDAY...NUDGED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR MAINLY EAST HALF OF CWA. HIGH OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LATE MORNING/AFTN LAKE BREEZES...BUT TEMPS SHOULD SURGE QUICKLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE COOLING KICKS IN THIS AFTN. WARM TEMPS TODAY WILL WORK TO CONTINUE MELTING LINGERING SNOWPACK/KEEP SOME STREAMS AND RIVERS AROUND BANKFULL /SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS/. WARM TEMPS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DRYING TREND THAT STARTED ON MONDAY AFTN. RH VALUES THIS AFTN BOTTOM OUT WELL BLO 20 PCT OVER MUCH OF CWA...PERHAPS EVEN AS LOW AS 10 PCT. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER STEADILY DIMINISH THOUGH BLO 15 MPH AS THE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER. SO DESPITE THE DRYING CONDITIONS AND TEMPS UPWARD OF 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS...FIRE WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK. DESPITE A WEAK GRADIENT OVERHEAD NOW...TEMPS OVER INTERIOR WEST AND EAST EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY...AS LOW AS MID 20S IN ISOLD LOCATIONS OF THE WEST. EVEN LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT SO LOWERED TEMPS MORE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR EAST CLOSER TO DEPARTING LOW PWAT DOWN AROUND 0.10 INCH. WARMEST TEMPS TONIGHT OUT WEST CWA AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN PLAINS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVE FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE STREAKS ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FM THE NRN PLAINS AND PERSISTS AT LEAST INTO WED NIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ABOUT 3-5F WARMER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY. GOOD MIXING INTO A DECENT INVERSION BTWN 800-850 MB SHOULD YIELD SSE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS...MODIS IMAGE INDICATES SNOWPACK IS BASICALLY GONE OVER SRN HALF OF UPPER MI AND IS MELTING FAST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH GIVEN RECENT SPELL OF WARM WEATHER. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MID-LVL RDG AXIS MOVES EAST ON THU MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY MERGING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE STREAKING ACROSS NRN MANITOBA AND NRN ONTARIO. MOST MODELS INDICATE ASSOC SFC TROF WILL DRAW NEAR THE WRN FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO SHOW BETTER GULF MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LAKES BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARRIVE. ADDITIONALLY...THE BETTER FORCING FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND DEEPER MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV REMAINS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. ALL THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE ANTECEDENT VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...WL LIMIT CHCS FOR RAIN THU INTO THU NIGHT SO HAVE ELECTED TO PULL SLIGHT CHC POPS FM FCST. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN FM SCNTRL CANADA FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODELS GENERALLY TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH SHORTWAVE TRACK AND ASSOC DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF. 00Z GFS AND GEM-NH STILL SHOW ENOUGH WEAK DYNAMICS ACROSS AREA TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA ALONG ASSOC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WL KEEP CHC POPS IN FCST. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD IN SAT AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NRN ROCKY MTN REGION. TEMPS ON SAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH NW FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR BUT STILL EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 50S. MODELS SHOW NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE PHASED LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS REMNANTS OF SRN PLAINS CLOSED LOW EJECT NORTH AND INTERACT WITH ADVANCING MID-LVL TROF/SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STILL SOME MODEL TIMING ISSUES AS THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER THAN 00Z ECMWF WITH TROF ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. ALSO 00Z GEM-NH NOT SHOWING PHASING/INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVES AS ADVERTISED BY ECMWF AND GFS. GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS SUN NIGHT INCREASING TO CHC POPS BY MONDAY WHEN MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW BETTER FORCING/DYNAMICS/MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID-LVL TROF. DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF PHASING WITH SYSTEM AND STRENGTH OF SFC LOW...THERE COULD BE PTYPE ISSUES AS COLDER AIR BEING DRWAN IN FM THE NORTH CHANGES RAIN OVER TO SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. SAW GETS A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE THROUGH BY MID AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SWITCH THEIR WIND TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS THEREAFTER. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 OTHER THAN SOME LINGERING WEST WINDS TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING...HIGH PRES CROSSING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS BLO 20 KNOTS. BEYOND TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY AS EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH...THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015 IN LAST 12-18HRS...FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TRAP ROCK RIVER IN HOUGHTON COUNTY...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER IN HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER AT NAHMA JUNCTION FOR RIVER LEVELS REACHING ABOVE BANKFULL. THERE IS ALSO A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT EFFECTIVE FOR THE STURGEON RIVER NEAR ALSTON FOR RISING RIVER LEVELS MAINLY IN BARAGA COUNTY FROM THE PRICKETT DAM DOWNSTREAM TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH OUTFLOW FROM OTTER LAKE DAM. AT THIS TIME...THE STURGEON RIVER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL. ALONG WITH THE STURGEON RIVER OF BARAGA AND HOUGHTON COUNTIES...THE ESCANABA RIVER WILL ALSO APPROACH BANKFULL STAGE IN SOME SPOTS MID- WEEK...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THAT THE HEADWATERS OF THESE RIVER HAVE THE MOST SNOW. THE MICHIGAMME RIVER ALSO HAS GREATER SNOWPACK IN THE HEADWATERS REGION OF THE PESHEKEE RIVER...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE LONGER FOR THAT WATER TO REACH LOWER SECTIONS OF THE RIVER MORE PRONE TO FLOODING. STILL...NOT SEEING ANYTHING SUGGESTING MORE THAN ACTION STAGE POSSIBLE ON THE MICHIGAMME RIVER. OVERALL...NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLA HYDROLOGY...VOSS  FXUS63 KMQT 150853 AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 453 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 MAIN CONCERNS FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND PERSISTS INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING. RETURN SSE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH PRES RDG AXIS AND MIXING AT OR ABOVE 850 MB WILL RESULT IN HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. SSE WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 20 MPH FOR A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF VERY LOW RH/S AND THUS ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS AS SHORT TERM FIRE WX INDICES REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR GRASS/BRUSH FIRES. COMBINATION OF SSE WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ABOUT 15F ABOVE AVERAGE...AND AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF AND 15 TO 20 PERCENT INTERIOR EAST HALF WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS SHOULD KEEP LOWER LEVELS A BIT MORE MIXED TONIGHT WHICH WILL IN TURN WILL RESULT IN POOR RH RECOVERY AS DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER 20S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT AREAS OF THE WEST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 PERCENT MAX RH TONIGHT AND SOME DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE FAR WEST MAY NOT REACH 50 PERCENT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. GIVEN EXPECTED LOW DEWPOINTS TONIGHT UNDER VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH FOR ALL BUT MAYBE FAR WEST TONIGHT) WENT WITH COOLER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS LEANING CLOSER TO HI RES CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HIGHLIGHTS MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER TYPICAL COLD SPOTS WEST AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 PLETHORA OF SUBTLE FEATURES THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR ANY BIGGER IMPACT WEATHER WITH ANY OF THEM LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH. UPPER PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH DEEP TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS SHEARING APART AS IT LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA FIRST PART OF THE WEEK REMAINS DOMINANT SFC FEATURE WITH DRY AIR PROHIBITING MUCH IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLE THAT ISOLD SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR EAST CWA ON THURSDAY AS THE LEAD WAVE CROSSES SW-NE ACROSS MICHIGAN. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE H8 WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE QPF. MAINLY EXPECT THIS AREA OF RAIN TO STAY EAST THOUGH. COULD ALSO BE SHRA OVER FAR WEST CWA LATE ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING JUST AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN PROCESS OF WASHING OUT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE H7 ADVECTS IN FM SW. MOST LIKELY IT WILL STAY DRY...SO WILL CARRY NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRADUALLY WARM OVER PREVIOUS DAYS SO SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCE OF TEMPS THAT WARM ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTH AS THAT AREA WILL SEE LESS COOLING OFF LK SUPERIOR ONCE TROUGH PASSES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RESULT. TEMPS SATURDAY CHILLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH GRADIENT NORTHERLY WINDS. USED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID 30S NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MARQUETTE AND AS WARM AS 60 DEGREES NEAR WI BORDER. GIVEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MIN TEMPS COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT INLAND. BY LATE WEEKEND ATTN TURNS TO UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SW CONUS AND POTENTIAL MERGER OF THIS LOW WITH UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT LEAST FOR NOW...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME PHASING BUT RESULTING LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEVER REALLY WRAPS UP ENOUGH TO CAUSE STRONG SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONSISTENCY WITH THAT SOLUTION IS POOR THOUGH SO ONLY MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO CONSENSUS FORECAST. BASICALLY WENT FOR THE IDEA THAT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE UNSETTLED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW VCNTY OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. BECOMES COLD ENOUGH BEHIND WHAT EVER SFC LOW FORMS TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PROBABLY LOOKING AT MORE SHOWERLY TYPE MODE TO RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. TEMPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR LK SUPERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STAY IN THE 30S...WITH TEMPS ELSEWHERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS IN STORE SO ENJOY THE WARM WEATHER WHILE IT LASTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AS EVEN WITH A COUPLE FRONTS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYS WEAK. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT WED APR 15 2015 SEEMS THAT WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ADDED TO THE ONGOING SNOWMELT...AT LEAST FOR THIS WEEK...MAINLY LOOKING AT A HANDFULL OF BANKFULL ISSUES ON SOME RIVERS WITH CONTINUATION OF LOW- END ADVSIORIES. AS OF THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE STURGEON RIVER IN HOUGHTON AND BARAGA COUNTIES /AFFECTING THE GAGES NEAR ALSTON AND CHASSELL/...THE CHOCOLAY RIVER NEAR HARVEY...AND THE STURGEON RIVER IN ALGER AND DELTA COUNTIES AFFECTING THE GAGE AT NAHMA JUNCTION. MODIS SATELLITE FM TUESDAY SHOWED SNOW STILL ON GROUND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FM PORCUPINE MTS OVER REST OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF MICHIGAMME HIGHLANDS IN BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES AND STILL A LOT OF SNOW LEFT ON THE GROUND IN THE NW SNOWBELTS OF EASTERN CWA. BASED ON WHERE SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND MORE MELTING TO COME...RIVERS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THOSE AREAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...JLA AVIATION...07 MARINE...VOSS HYDROLOGY...JLA  FXUS63 KMQT 162045 AAA AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Marquette MI 445 PM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 421 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018 Updated for note on wildfire smoke that will move across the area on Fri. Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show zonal flow across much of Canada. In the weaker flow to the s, a well-defined shortwave is over nw IA/ne NE/se SD/sw MN. With daytime heating, sct shra/tsra associated with the wave have been increasing across IA/southern MN into sw WI. It appears a subtle wave ahead of the main feature has also been aiding some shra/tsra development farther ne in WI. Closer to home, quite a bit of cloud cover has helped slow build up of instability. That said, latest SPC mesoanalysis shows mlcapes have increased to 1000+j/kg from northern WI toward Marquette. Aforementioned well-defined shortwave is fcst to shift ese and weaken tonight/Fri. While it won't have any direct impact on the weather here, avbl instability and subtle wave in WI should support development of a few shra/possibly a tstm across the border into portions of central Upper MI over the next several hrs. Vis satellite imagery indicates CU are becoming more well-developed in the area bounded roughly by Ironwood/Marquette/Iron Mtn, which supports the idea that some shra may develop late aftn/early evening. Very weak mean wind under 10kt will lead to little movement of any shra that develop. Shra should end by midnight, though some models hint that pcpn could linger overnight. Light/calm wind, decrease in clouds overnight, and temps falling into 50s will likely lead to some radiation fog development over the interior w half. Fri looks like a quiet day. However, under a slightly more wnw mid- level flow, models do show a weak shortwave approaching in the aftn. There is some TCU developing ahead of the feature in southern Manitoba/adjacent northern Ontario, so not out of the question that there could be isold aftn shra. On the other hand, prevailing gradient northerly flow will essentially eliminate lake breeze convergence as a low-level forcing mechanism unless lake breeze off Lake MI can develop. So for now, left any mention of pcpn out of fcst. Expect highs ranging from around 70F along Lake Superior to well into the 80s inland. On another note, satellite imagery, especially MODIS/AQUA imagery, shows a very thick layer of wildfire smoke extending from ND ne into northern Ontario. Unfortunately, this band of smoke will likely move across the area on Fri. The smoke will be much thicker than anything experienced this summer. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 340 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018 Rather quiet start to the extended forecast, with a weak mid-lvl trough axis departing the Great Lakes region late Sat. Closer to the surface an elongated surface ridge will continue to provide dry condtiions to the area through Sat, but heading into the second half of the weekend with the surface ridge departing to the east. Some of the guidance is starting to slow the departing surface ridge until later Sun, which could further delay clouds returning and precip chances until Mon. A frontal boundary continues to be progged by guidance for approaching from the west/northwest early Mon, with a shortwave developing across the Central Plains early in the week. This shortwave is being progged to lift northeast towards Lower Michigan Tue/Wed with a wide precip shield accompanying this low pressure system. This should increase chances for showers/thunderstorms Tue/Wed of next week. Temperatures will steadily warm and become more humid over the second half of the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Mild overnight temps are also expected as cloud cover is not going to dissipate, keeping lows in the 60s for the bulk of the extended. With the system arriving Tue/Wed, this should provide cooler temps with rainfall with highs back into the upper 60s to lower 70s for many areas then warming yet again later in the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 155 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018 VFR conditions are likely to prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. Depending on how much clearing occurs tonight, could see fog develop. Winds will be light thru this fcst period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 421 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2018 Winds across Lake Superior will be under 15kt thru Sun. However, high pres building over northern Ontario on Fri may lead to ne wind gusts of 15-20kt over western Lake Superior. A vigorous low pres system for Aug is expected to track ne into the Great Lakes region late Mon/Tue. This system will bring northerly winds of at least 15- 25kt with gusts to 30kt. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rolfson LONG TERM...Beachler AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...Rolfson