FXUS62 KMLB 040749

AFDMLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

245 AM EST SUN NOV 4 2012



.DISCUSSION...



CURRENT...CLEAR SKIES AND NARROWING T/TD SPREADS HAS ALLOWED SOME 

MIST TO FORM ACROSS ECFL. MAIN CONCERN IS AREA OF THICKER STRATUS 

AND DENSE FOG COVERING A GOOK CHUNK OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THE 

NORTHERN/WESTERN PENINSULA. 3.9UM IMAGERY SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF 

THIS DECK LURKING JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP NICELY

ON SOME TIMELY 0358 AND 0633 UTC HIGH-RES MODIS IMAGES FURNISHED BY 

NASA/SPORT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY AS IT LOOKS LIKE IT 

COULD SPREAD EAST/SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL LIKELY

NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR LAKE AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT COUNTIES BEFORE

SUNRISE.



TODAY/TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM MORNING FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL...TODAY IS

SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER SUNNY/DRY DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES

AND A LITTLE WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPS - L80S EVERY BUT THE BARRIER

ISLANDS WITH LIGHT WINDS GIVING WAY TO AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

CLEAR WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG (AND MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW

CLOUDS) AGAIN TONIGHT. MINS IN THE U50S/L60S.



MON-TUE...RAIN CHANCES RE-ENTER THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS THE FIRST 

OF TWO SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...GENERATING A WEAK 

SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. LOW QUICKLY PUSHES OUT INTO THE 

ATLANTIC AND BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA ON 

MONDAY...FORECAST TO STALL OUT DURING THE DAY. A FEW AFTERNOON 

SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.



A RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE 

MIDWEST/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 

TUES...SPINNING UP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE 

GULF TUE MORNING AND EJECTING THIS FEATURE UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST 

BY TUESDAY EVENING. SLIGHT TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 

GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS BEING THE QUICKER/WEAKER OF THE TWO WITH 

THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE 

MAIN EFFECT OF THIS ON LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE 

FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND PERHAPS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUES AFTERNOON WITH 

THE FRONT. HAVE CONTINUE TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT THE 

MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TUES NIGHT AS THE FRONT 

SWEEPS THROUGH. 



OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ELECTION DAY. HAVE 

KEPT THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT...BUT MODELS 

ARE HINTING THAT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED 

THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS N FL/S 

GEORGIA. 



HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 

LOW 60S MONDAY NIGHT. TUES NIGHT LOWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE 

TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 

50S. 



WED-FRI...DRY AND COOL WEATHER RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE 

LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP 

SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE 

FRONT...DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 70S WED-THURS BEHIND THE FRONT. 

POST FRONTAL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A FEW UPPER 

40S POSSIBLE IN COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.



&&



.AVIATION...THRU 13Z WE'LL PROBABLY DEALING WITH LIFR-VLIFR CIGS AND 

VSBYS IN FG/ST AT KLEE...AND PERHAPS FARTHER EAST TO KISM-KMCO-KSFB

IF CLOUD BANK SPREADS EAST. OTHERWISE VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF

LOW CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AFTER 07Z SUN NIGHT.



&&



.MARINE...SUN-MON...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 

STALL OVER THE REGION WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. 



TUE-THU...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING

AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NE GULF AND MOVES ACROSS THE 

NORTHERN HALF OF OF THE STATE. SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS...PERHAPS CLOSER 

TO 20KTS IF THE STRONGER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES. LATEST 

MODEL RUNS DO NOT HAVE THE POST FRONTAL WINDS QUITE AS STRONG WITH 

NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH 

WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF THE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVE AND SWELL 

COMING IN FROM THE DEVELOPING GALE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SEAS 

TO 5-6FT OFFSHORE AND 3-5FT NEARSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE 

EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15KTS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 

INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES OVER THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL DROP 

INTO THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. DURATION/WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE A 

CONCERN AS FAR AS RFW ISSUANCE GOES.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DAB  81  60  78  59 /   0  10  20  30 

MCO  83  60  81  59 /   0  10  20  20 

MLB  80  61  79  61 /   0  10  10  20 

VRB  80  59  80  60 /   0   0  10  10 

LEE  83  61  81  59 /   0  10  20  30 

SFB  82  61  81  60 /   0  10  20  30 

ORL  83  62  81  61 /   0  10  20  20 

FPR  79  59  79  59 /   0   0  10  10 



&&



.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.

AM...NONE.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI

LONG TERM....MOSES