FXUS63 KMKX 250728 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 228 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2010 .SHORT TERM... TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH THAN A FEW AFTERNOON CU WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF 15-16C HOLDING HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL KEEP FOG LIMITED MAINLY TO RIVER VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LEANED TOWARD THE MET FOR LOW TEMPS...AS MAV NUMBERS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AMOUNT OF COOLING DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN STORE THURSDAY...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE EAST DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE...AND A BIT WARMER IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT..WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH INCREASED HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...SHOULD SEE A GOOD JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EXTENDED...KEEPING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND HIGH HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM...AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP. WENT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MODEL 925 MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AS WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL RIDE UP OVER STUBBORN RIDGE. && .AVIATION... .AVIATION...SCT VFR CU EXPCD LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SRN WI. MAY BE BRIEFLY BKN BUT TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO ENTRAIN FOR CIGS TO LAST FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW NW GUSTS TO REACH 20 KNOTS FOR A TIME. WIND SPEEDS WL SETTLE TO BLO 10KTS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW INVERSION DVLPS. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS AND AVHRR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NEARSHORE SST IN THE 66 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE...WITH MID 70S AT MID-LAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WL ALLOW NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTN. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TNGT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION CLIPPING LOWER LAKE MI. GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SHORE. WIND SPEEDS SETTLE DOWN ON THU AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07 AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11  FXUS63 KMKX 251928 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 228 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. WEATHER QUIET AS UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS REGION. THICKER BAND OF CU TO THE NORTH MARKING SECONDARY COLD FRONT/DEW POINT FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE I-94 CORRIDOR AROUND 21Z AND CLEAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 23Z...A TREND HANDLED WELL BY NAM 1000-850MB RH FORECASTS. TONIGHT...WILL HAVE A CLEAR COOL NIGHT...WITH UPPER 40S INLAND...AND N-NE GRADIENT WINDS OFF THE UPPER 60 LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES INDICATED BY THE MODIS SEA SFC TEMPERATURE IMAGERY HOLDING LAKESHORE TEMPS UP. LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING IN OFF-SET BY WARM GROUND TO KEEP TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT ANY FOG TO RIVER VALLEYS AND LAKES. THURSDAY...DRY AIR AND SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO A QUICK REBOUND OF TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO THE DEPTH OF MIXING...BUT 925MB TEMPS BETWEEN 16 AND 17C WILL YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEGINNINGS OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL RAISE TEMPS/DEW POINTS. ALONG WITH SOME POSSIBLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND GRADIENT WIND OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE MID 50S REASONABLE. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AS 925 TEMPS WARM TO 20-21C WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND BACK OF SFC HIGH. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ONLY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED ARE FOR TEMPERATURES AND TIMING OF THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE. UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THEN AMPLIFY AND EXPAND OVER THE WEEKEND IN BLOCKY PATTERN AS WESTERN TROUGH DEEPENS AND TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC PHASES WITH SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING 925/850MB TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF MID TO UPPER 80S HIGHS FROM SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FORCING STAYS OFF TO THE WEST UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SHORT WAVE FLATTENS RIDGE WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY THAT BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE. GFS MUCH FASTER WITH AN INITIAL WAVE...AND THEN BRINGS SECOND LOW THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WILL TREND TOWARDS ECMWF/HPC TIMING THAT BRINGS PCPN CHANCE INTO FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOWER SOLUTION...BUT WILL LINGER A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY TO ACKNOWLEDGE GFS POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION...SCT CU ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVE AND REMAINING CLEAR THROUGH THU. NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AS AN INVERSION SETS IN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. LAKE BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MKE AND ENW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAKE WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...PRODUCING NWLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL SHIFT NLY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION CROSSES LOWER LAKE MI TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION WILL BEGIN DECREASING THE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO THU...THOUGH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...09/REM AVIATION/MARINE...22/ASEARS/MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 070139 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 840 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010 .DISCUSSION...STRONGEST FORCING REMAINS JUST NORTHWEST OF CWA...HOWEVER MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG NEGATIVELY TILTED COLD FRONT TO ALLOW SEVERAL STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT WEST NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COMING TOGETHER AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN WEST AND WITH WMFNT IN VCNTY...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. OTRW...WIND ADVY STILL A GO. ONE SNAG WL BE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS THAT ROTATES AROUND LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY REDUCING MIXING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. && .MARINE...PEAKS AT MODIS IMAGERY OF SST OVER NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN REVEALING STRONG UPWELLING HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH LAKE MI TEMPS POSSIBLY IN THE 50S. HENCE STRONGER INVERSION NOT ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF SURFACE TO MIX DOWN. HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN MN. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY AS WINDS EXPCD TO INCREASE LATER TNGT. NO CHANGE TO START TIME OF GALE WARNING AT THIS POINT AS WELL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051- 052-056>060-062>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 120825 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCE TONIGHT THEN HANDLING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOW STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WITH MAIN VORTICITY ACTION MOVING SE FROM CANADA TO THE U.P. BY 00Z MONDAY. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. 925 TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 20C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FULL SUN WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH NAM SHOWING HIGHER CAPE DUE TO INFLATED PROGGD SURFACE DEW POINTS. NAM ALSO SHOWING A BETTER SURGE OF 850 DEW POINTS REACHING INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY OF 850 THERMAL RIDGE. GFS/ECWMF HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF WI. WILL GO WITH VERY SMALL POPS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER THIS EVENING. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BENIGN NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAWAING CLOSER FROM MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL NEUTRAL ADVECTION. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM EXPECTING THE DRY LOOK TO PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. WAA PRECIP GETS GOING TO OUR WEST. ALL MODELS FOCUS THIS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA. NAM/ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE ON ADVANCING THIS INTO EXTREME SW WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER LOOK OF THE GFS/CANADIAN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM 00Z ECMWF HAS PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW FROM THE PLAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY QUICKER WITH BRINGING IN THE ISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIP. THERE ARE ALSO FURTHER EAST WITH LOW CENTER. GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. CANADIAN A COMPRMISE SOLUTION. WILL NEED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARYING SOLUTIONS. GREATEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE GFS CATCHES UP THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CONSISTENCY THERE TOO. WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF GOING LIKELY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NOT GREAT...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PASSES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH PRECIP LINGERING. MORE SOUTHERN POSITION OF ECMWF LOW CENTER WOULD FAVOR A LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE. SO HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TRIMMING THEM INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PD. FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN. THINKING NAM OVERDOING AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATER THIS EVE ASSOCD WITH BRIEF BURST OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MAY BE PD OF MID LEVEL CLDS ASSOCD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF WK LOW PRES TROF BUT THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD -SHRA WL BE SOUTH OF TAF SITES. && .MARINE...W-SW SFC WNDS GUSTING TO 13 TO 18KTS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING.. .WITH ABOUT 4MB ISOBAR SPACING ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SHORE FROM IL/WI BORDER TO GRB. WEAK SFC TROF PUSHES ACRS LAKE MI THIS EVE AS SFC WNDS VEER TO NW. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INCRS BEHIND THIS TROF LATER TNGT INTO MON...HWVR ADVECTION NOT STRONG ENUF TO PUNCH THRU STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS... ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SST TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 122027 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. POCKET OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST IOWA MARKING VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MONDAY. SOME MODELS CARRYING LIGHT QPF INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REFLECTED IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 305K SURFACE. CAPE AROUND 400 J/KG ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE ORDER OF 100MB...HIGH BASES TO THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF RADAR RETURNS OR GROUND REPORTS DEPTH OF DRY AIR FROM SURFACE TO 10K FT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING. NEUTRAL TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CONFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY. MIXING UP TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND +9C IN THE NORTH AND +11C SOUTH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REACHES WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. DRY EASTERLY FEED AROUND SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAX. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP MONDAY NIGHT...AND AMOUNT OF WARMING ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. AGAIN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TUESDAY WAVE LIMITING MIXING UP TO 925MB TEMPS OF 12C TO 13C SO MID 60S HIGHS REASONABLE. EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED CAPE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6C OR LESS...BUT WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER TO ACKNOWLEDGE DYNAMIC LIFT AND POSSIBLE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH VORTICITY MAX PASSING OVER REGION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN FOR THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT ON ECMWF. MODELS AGREE THAT A 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL FOR THE THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ABOUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND VORTEX CROSSING ONTARIO...AND TIMING OF BACKED FLOW OVER NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IN RESPONSE TO EACH WAVE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR STALLED BOUNDARY BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A SUBTLE LOW PRES TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WOULD CROSS THE CWA FROM 22Z TO 02Z. HOWEVER...DOUBTING THAT ANY SHOWER/TSTORMS WILL COME OUT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER TNGT INTO MON. HOWEVER...THE ADVECTION WILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SEA SFC TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...09 AVIATION/MARINE...13  FXUS63 KMKX 122007 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 307 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A POTENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS WI TONIGHT. JUST AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH...AND RIGHT ALONG THE SFC WIND SHIFT...THERE IS SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE THAT MAY SQUEEZE SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE OVERALL GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. 1930Z VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT FROM LA CROSSE TO DES MOINES...WITH A STROKE OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING INDICATED BY THE NLDN JUST WEST OF DES MOINES. THE RUC SHOWS SOME CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY OVERALL LOOK TO THE FRONT...REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AND CUT POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY BEHIND THE SFC WIND SHIFT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WOULD PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE THEM ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPDATES WILL BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING AS THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BECOMES MORE APPARENT. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON WED. 850MB TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5C RANGE...AND 925MB TEMPS ARE EXECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 9 OR 10C. SNDGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT A VERY DRY PROFILE. THERE LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBLITY FOR AT LEAST STRATOCU AROUND 5000 FT ACROSS THE CWA ON WED AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...PROBABLY IN NORTHEASTERN WI. THEREFORE...REMOVED POPS FOR WED. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A SPRINKLE HERE AND THERE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND 40. THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN ONTARIO...UPPER MI...AND LOWER MI THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM KEEP THE VORT MAX WELL TO THE EAST OF WI...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS A SOLUTION THAT CLIPS THE WESTERN CWA. WINDS SHOULD STAY WESTERLY NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE NAM/GFS...SO LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP REASSESSING WITH EACH MODEL RUN TO SEE WHICH SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WED. MIN TEMPS EXPECTED AROUND 40. .LONG TERM... FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRI...KEEPING FLOW GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND NAM DELAY THE WARMING UNTIL FRI NIGHT. THEY KEEP THE CORE OF THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRI AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C. SNDGS SHOW A VERY DRY COLUMN...SO SUNNY SKIES WILL BRING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WARMER IF GFS SOLN PANS OUT. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS OF 11 TO 13C INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI BY SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SFC AND UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL CROSS WI SAT NIGHT...AND THEN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE CWA ON SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO THE 8 TO 10C RANGE ON SUN...AND HIGH TEMPS SHOULD THEN BE IN THE LOWER 60S. MODIS SHOWED LAKE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY. IF THESE TEMPS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKE...THEN LAKE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF THE LAKE. MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE GFS DIGS AN UPPER TROUGH DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MON...WHICH DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS AND TRACKS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THE 00Z ECWMF ALSO SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IT TOOK ON A DIFFERENT SFC SOLN. THE ECMWF STALLED AN 850MB FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN IL SUN NIGHT...PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS... AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFTED IT SOUTH ACROSS IL ON MON. NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SOLN CAME MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS...TRACKING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SFC LOW ON MON. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. THEN THERE WILL BE A COOLING TREND FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH FCST 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0 OR -2C AND DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY WITH THIS FEATURE BUT A SHOWER CAN/T BE RULED OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO BE VFR WITH FROPA...BUT WITH A BKN DECK AT THAT TIME. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT COLUMN QUITE DRY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC AVIATION/MARINE...10/PC  FXUS63 KMKX 160754 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. .TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM...MOSTLY WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...AND THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WEST BEND TO LAKE GENEVA WHERE THE WINDS ARE WEAKER. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4 TO 2 MILES EXPECTED...BUT NOT DENSE FOG WHICH STARTS AT 1/4 MILE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY...IN THE RANGE OF 12C TO +14C 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO THE LAKESHORE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH FRONT AS MOISTURE LIMITED...WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING WELL NORTH CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...SO LOWS AND HIGHS A FEW POINTS LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. .SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET AIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STILL GETTING SOME DIFF/L VORTICITY ADVECTION. INITIAL PCPN WILL BE VIRGA UNTIL VERTICAL COLUMN BECOME MOIST. FRONTO-FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL PRESENT AS SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU...WITH LINGERING EFFECTS INTO MONDAY. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLD AIR ADVECTION SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ON TUESDAY A 3RD WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN INTO IA AND THEN IL...KEEPING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAYBE SOME BANDS OF CLOUDS AT MOST FOR SOUTHERN WI. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. AS WE GO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE AND DIGGING STRENGTH OF UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GFS IS DEEPER WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER...SLOWER..AND MORE EAST WITH THE TROF. IF GFS PANS OUT WE WILL HAVE CHANCES OF PCPN AND MORE CLOUDS WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY TO BE CONSISTENT WITH MY NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH THE MAX NUMBERS SLOWLY WARMING THRU THE 60S FROM WED INTO FRI. && .AVIATION...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY DVLP THIS MRNG IN BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. FEW-SCT CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS SFC FRONT PASSES THRU THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE...HWVR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. ONLY PROBLEM IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KENW WITH MVFR FOG. EXPC PATCHY FOG AT KENW TO THIN AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MRNG AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS LTR THIS MRNG...VEERING FROM MOSTLY THE SOUTH TO THE SW. WINDSPEEDS WILL REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY. AFTER FROPA THIS EVE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR WARM LAKE SURFACE MAY ALLOW FEW GUSTS TO EXCEED 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. LAKE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 14-15C PER LATEST AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT FOR TNGT AND LET LATER SHIFTS REEVALUATE. PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS SUN MRNG AS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...34 AVIATION/MARINE...11  FXUS63 KMKX 040821 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 321 AM CDT THU NOV 4 2010 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST ON ONSET OF COLDER CONDITIONS AND THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PICKING UP SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION NORTH OF MN ARROWHEAD WHICH TRACKS SSE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN WI TODAY. PWATS AROUND 0.30 INCH AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...HOWEVER FORCING STRONG ENUF TO MAKE USE OF LIMITED MOISTURE TO ALREADY BE GENERATING -SHRA IN MN ARROWHEAD. STRONGEST FORCING WITH WAVE WL AFFECT CWA BTWN 15Z AND 21Z TODAY. DURING THIS TIME...CORE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WL BE SWEEPING THRU WI. INCREASING NLY WINDS WL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SWD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DELTA-T WL BE INCREASING TO 18 DEGREES. HENCE LOOKING FOR RAPIDLY INCRNG CLOUDS LATER THIS MRNG. LINGER THERMAL TROF AND NLY WINDS WL LIKELY RESULT IN CLOUDS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WI THRU TNGT. 1000-850MB LAYER WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY OVER LAKE MI THIS AFTN AND TNGT WHICH WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCE FOR SHRA OVER LAKE MI AND AREAS DOWNWIND. CAN NOT RULE OUT -SHRA AFFECTING ERN AREAS OF RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES THIS BEFORE WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND THERMAL PROFILE STILL INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXED IN WITH POTENTIAL RAIN IN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. 3 HOUR PRES RISES OF 2-3MB THIS AFTN AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WL RESULT IN BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION ON FRIDAY. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FRI AND FRI NIGHT. ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKESHORE WILL BE QUICKLY HEADING OFFSHORE DUE TO GENERAL OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED. MODEL SNDGS ARE LOOKING MUCH DRIER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MEANING ONLY A FEW DIURNAL CU WOULD BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL MIXING...AND WINDS WILL STILL BE ELEVATED BEFORE THE CORE OF THE SFC HIGH GETS IN...SO IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. 850MB TEMPS WILL REACH A MIN OF AROUND -8C TO -10C OVER THE CENTER OF THE CWA RIGHT AROUND 12Z FRI...AND THEN THE CORE WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN CWA BY 18Z. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND -4C IN THE MORNING...THEN WARMING TO AROUND -2C IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOL...IN THE LOW 40S. THE WARMER AIR DOES NOT START SHIFTING INTO THE CWA UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...BUT BE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE STEADY AT THE MID LEVELS. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO WARM...GETTING UP TO AROUND 3C TO 5C BY LATE SAT AFTERNOON. MODEL SNDGS SHOW SOME POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE MOST PART. AFTER A COLD MORNING START...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT UP TO THE MID 40S EAST AND AROUND 50 WEST. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SUN. 925MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO 8C TO 10C /00Z GFS/ OR 10C TO 12C /12Z ECMWF/ BY SUN AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD GET UP TO 13C TO 16C. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG INVERSION...MIXING IS ONLY PROGGED UP TO AROUND 925MB AT THE MOST. WENT WITH THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. THE FCST TEMPS ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE...ESPECIALLY IF ECMWF VERIFIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW A POTENT 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST SUN AND SUN NIGHT. SFC PROGS SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND QUICKLY MOVING UP INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOUTHERN WI DRY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MAINTAINED DRY FCST FOR THE WEEKEND. MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN WI AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY SSW WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT. THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER WINDS ON SUN AND THEN RELAXES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON MON. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON MON...PROBABLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. WENT WITH MIDDLE GROUND OF GUIDANCE...WITH MAX T OF LOW 60S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TUE-WED FCST. THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF TO BRING A HIGH AMPLITUTE 500MB LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO THE MIDWEST. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG LEADING SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CWA ON TUE...WHICH SPREADS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS AT LEAST A DAY SLOWER AND MUCH WEAKER WITH THAT SHORTWAVE...AND DOES NOT GENERATE PRECIP. CHOSE TO HINT AT PRECIP POTENTIAL ON TUE WITH SCHC POPS IN FCST. CONFIDENCE LOW. CONTINUED CHC/SCHC POPS THROUGH WED WITH THE POSSIBLE SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD...MAX T EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S. && .AVIATION...EXPC CIGS TO RETURN TO SRN WI THIS MRNG...EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RIDING ON BRISK NORTH WINDS WL MOVE ACROSS RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR...PICKING UP ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN STRENGTHENING THERMAL TROF. FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD AFFECT TAF SITES BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO BEYOND VCNTY REMARK AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...INITIAL SURGE OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION NOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WL SAG SWD OVER LAKE MI LTR THIS MRNG...SETTING UP STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST MODIS SST IMAGERY VERIFY MID LAKE BUOY TEMPS AROUND 10 C WITH TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND 6-7 C IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN INCRG WINDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS THIS MRNG AND CONTINUE BLUSTERY THROUGH FRI AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND COLD AIR SETTLES OVER GTLAKES. GRADIENT FINALLY LOOSENS FRI EVE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NWD FROM NE CONUS INTO SE CAN. STATUS QUO ON CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVY. FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30KTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT...11/MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 080919 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 319 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. INITIAL SURGE OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SCT- BKN CS ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT. MORE SCT CS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CLOSER TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN ERN SODAK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RH OVR ERN NE INTO WRN IA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED THIS PERIOD...BUT ENUF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FEW-SCT CS AND PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AC TODAY AS SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN WI/MN. SHOULD STILL MANAGE M/S CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING MIXING TO 925H. EXPC TEMPS TO STILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON SUN MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL LAKESHORE AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTN AS LATEST MODIS/AVHRR IMAGERY HAS SST IN NEARSHORE IN THE 6 TO 10 C RANGE. QUIET TNGT WITH TEMPS SLIPPING BACK TO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS MOST AREAS. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN REPSONSE TO UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPANNING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MILD FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL OFFER SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA. BETTER INLAND MIXING AND LESS LAKE INFLUENCE. WENT WITH ECMWF COMPROMISE APPROACH ON THE 925 TEMP STRUCTURE WITH NAM LOOKING TOO WARM AND GFS TOO COLD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER ON EASTERN SIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL TO THE WEST. 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WELL WEST OF WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS QUITE PARCHED. WILL GO WITH THE DRY LOOK FOR WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPICTED TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH NAM MORE AGGRSSIVE WITH DCVA. NAM ALSO SHOWING MORE COLUMN MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. EVEN STILL NAM HAS QPF JUST GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW THE SMALLISH POPS ARE STILL OK. THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. 850 RIDGING POKES ACROSS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTING MN INTO NW WI BUT NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO HERE IN SRN WI. ECMWF THROWING OUT LIGHT AND SEEMINGLY RANDOM QPF INTO SRN WI THOUGH WILL SIDE WITH OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THE DRY LOOK. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM MODELS SHOW CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER JET AND 850 MILLIBAR BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO THE 500 MILLIBAR PATTERN. GFS AND CANADIAN EVOLVE A CLOSED LOW RIGHT ON WI/IL BORDER 12Z SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A NORTHENR STREAM UPPER LOW BEING DOMINANT WHILE WHISKING A WEAKER REFLECTION OF THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. HPC TENDS TO FAVOR THE LATTER AND THE ENSEMBLES. SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR THAT ENDS UP GETTING WRAPPED BACK IN. ECMWF IS ACTUALLY COLDER THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -3 TO -5C BY 00Z SUNDAY BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS LEFTOVER. MAY NOT GET THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT SEEING SOME FLAKES. SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW GFS SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND THE FIRST WAVE WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A SEPERATE PIECE OF ENERGY HEADING NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE. && .AVIATION...PASSING CI ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE WL CONT TO AFFECT WI TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS TNGT AS NRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY DURING THE PD. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE BY AFTN IN EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 310931 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 331 AM CST MON JAN 31 2011 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM FORECAST EMPHASIS ON SNOW AND AMOUNTS FROM INCOMING ROUND ONE OF SNOW. PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET RESULTS IN SATURATION OF LOW LAYERS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH BEST PERIOD OF ENHANCED LIFT TONIGHT WITH PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI WL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST OF WESTERN CWA THIS MRNG... EVENTUALLY SATURATING DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTN. -SN REPORTS LINE UP WELL WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SFC. THESE LWR CPD WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREAD SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY. COBB AND THICKNESS TECHNIQUES FAVOR SNOW LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 18 TO 1 FOR THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH 4 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL THROUGH 12Z/TUE. LAYER FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS PUSHES INTO WESTERN CWA THIS EVE WHICH FALLS IN MODERATE OMEGA IN FAVORABLE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. THIS ENHANCED SNOWFALL FOR A TIME THIS EVENING COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS. NEXT SHIFT WL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHETHER WINTER STORM WARNING WOULD BE MORE APPROPRIATE. ALSO BEEFED UP AMOUNTS SEVERAL INCHES IN EAST DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT CONTRIBUTION. DELTA-T INCREASES TO 17 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE FAVORABLE FETCH. LAKE INDUCED CAPE NEAR 300 J BY LATE TNGT AT KSBM. WL NEED TO WATCH LAKESHORE AND NEXT TIER INLAND AS WELL FOR BEEFIER HEADLINES FOR LATE TNGT INTO TUE. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS JET PULLS OFF AND SHIFTS NORTHWARD. INCREASING SHORT WAVE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WL ALSO DMSH FORCING AWAY FROM LAKE TUE MRNG AS WEAKENING 500MB PORT VORT SHIFTS EWD. WL POSTPONE WINTER WX ADVY FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY UNTIL LATER THIS MRNG. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN LOOKING FAIRLY WEAK ATTM. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COULD SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS FROM THE SYNOPTIC EVENT...PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR SO IN THE MORNING. ADVISORY MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY...AT LEAST FOR INLAND LOCALES AWAY FROM ANY INFLUENCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. THEN A BIT OF A LULL...BUT VERY SMALL AT THAT...AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE/700 TROUGH SHIFT EAST WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNWARD MOTION. QYUICK SHOT OF 500 RIDGING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MAJOR STORM SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN BEFORE THE BIG STORM MOVES IN WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT TRENDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE MOST FAVORED AREA LOOKS TO BE IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA WHERE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN THE LAKE AND AIR AT AROUND 5000 FEET FORECASTED TO BE AS COLD AS 19C...WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE INSTABILTY. FETCH LOOKS VERY GOOD AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER SHOWS FAVORABLE VALUES AS WELL. NAM AND WRF20 BOTH SHOW A NE/SW ORIENTED BAND EXTENDING INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. MAY NEED AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR THIS SPECIFIC LAKE EFFECT EVENT DEPENDING ON WHERE BAND SETS UP AND HOW THE BAND WOULD ADD TO THE TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM THE PRIOR EVENT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH BLIZZARD POTENTIAL LOOKING VERY HIGH FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST CWA. CANT RULE OUT MODELS LOCKED ONTO STRONG UPPER DYNAMICS WITH COUPLED JET STRUCTURE. NAM AND GFS BOTH EXPLODE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SE WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW 850 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS PEAKING SOUTH OF THE CWA BUT HAVE IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 700-500 MILLIBAR FRONTOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI...THUS STRONG SLOPING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE VERY STRONG...700-300 MILLIBAR VALUES OVER 50 UNITS AT MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SUBTLE WEAKENING IN VALUES BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPICALLY...280-290K PLOTS SHOW MIXING RATIOS PUSHING 3 G/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. INGREDIENTS PLOTS FROM BOTH NAM SHOW BEST PVU...OVERLAP OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SATURATED EQUIVELANT POTENTIAL VORTICITY...TO OUR SOUTHEAST...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS POINT. EVENING SHIFT FORECASTER ADJUSTED SNOW RATIOS AFTER ASSESSING ROEBBER TECHNIQUE AND WILL USE THIS AND APPLY AN AVERAGE QPF TO COME UP WITH TOTALS...IN MANY PERIODS...HPC IS A NICE BLEND...BUT WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE EAST DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT. NORTHEAST 50-60 KNOT 850 MILLIBAR JET CORE...WITH 45-55 KNOTS AT 925 MILLIBARS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE SETUP FOR MIXING DOWN GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE BEEN TOYING WITH THE IDEA OF EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD WATCH ANOTHER SET OF COUNTIES WEST...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL ADD GREEN LAKE AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND 3-5/3-6 TYPE SNOWS. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES TO CONTEND WITH...ONE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER ONE FOR SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...COMBINATION OF INCREASING LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WL RESULT IN IFR OR LWR CIGS AND VSBYS SPREADING ACROSS SRN WI TODAY...LASTING THRU TNGT. && .MARINE...SOUTHERN LAKESHORE SITES FLIRTING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT EXPECTING WINDS TO SLACKEN OFF A BIT THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING SMALL CRAFT FOR NOW. STILL EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN PLAINS. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY TNGT INTO TUE WITH GALE WATCH FROM TUE AFTN INTO WED AFTN. GALE FORCE WINDS MAY APPROACH STORM FORCE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...SO GALE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO STORM WATCH IN LATER SHIFTS. AVERAGE LAKE TEMP 2-3C. HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY SHOWS MINIMAL NEARSHORE ICE FROM MKE NWD...WITH A BIT MORE ICE COVERAGE SOUTH OF MKE IN THE SHALLOWER WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ064>066-068>072. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062-063-067-068. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-059-060-064-065-069-070. BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ066-071-072. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062-063-067. LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 050930 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CST SAT FEB 5 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARDS LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME AS SATELLITE SHOWS JUST A LITTLE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME INCREASE IN STRATUS MAY ALSO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LNR...MSN AND MKE. PREFER MAV MOS OVER NAM MOS FOR CEILING HEIGHTS. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT BUT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING TOWARD MORNING BUT NAM LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE RATHER LOW. .SHORT TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BRING CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES FOR SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SINCE THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS FOR A POTENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO CROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE POPS SUNDAY MORNING TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/. SNOW TOTAL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME. AS THE STRONGEST WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST SUN AFTERNOON...DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FUNNEL DOWN INTO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE WEAKER UPPER WAVES CROSSING THE REGION THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FCST...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO BACK FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR EAST. DELTA TS WILL NOT BE VERY LARGE...MAINLY LESS THAN 13C DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY FAVORS THIS SCENARIO OVER THE GFS. MODELS KEEP TRENDING IN THE DIRECTION OF NO LAKE EFFECT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IDEA IN MIND. .LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETS UP ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. COLD AIR WILL SURGE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN WI MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND -16C OVER THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED BY THU MORNING...AND BY THU NIGHT...A CORE OF -20C 925MB TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL WI. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS MUCH WARMER...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF CAME IN VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS NOW...SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE THIS PROLONGED COLD AIR OVER THE REGION THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A STRONG WARM-UP NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER. && .AVIATION... NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE AREA APPEAR OVERDONE WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS MORNING. WILL TREND TOWARDS LESS CLOUD COVER DURING THIS TIME AS SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT WITH EXTENSIVE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. PREFER MAV MOS OVER NAM MOS FOR CEILING HEIGHTS. WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT BUT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING TOWARD MORNING BUT NAM LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE RATHER LOW. THUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR IN FOG WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LIGHT SNOW LATE. && .MARINE...WEST WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN REGION. FALSE COLOR MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WHICH SHOWS ICE/SNOW VS WATER INDICATES ICE COVERAGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS THE VISIBLE IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST. SOME OF THIS COULD BE SLUSHY ICE OR POSSIBLY MORE OF A TURBIDITY DIFFERENCE WITH THE PRIOR BRISK WINDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...06/HENTZ  FXUS63 KMKX 082113 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 313 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011 TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING ACROSS MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND IOWA WILL SHIFT SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO KANSAS...IOWA AND MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PLAINS...AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS WI. GRADIENT WINDS WERE CONSISTENTLY IN THE 7 TO 13 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL EASE UP MUCH TONIGHT...BUT WILL EASE A BIT IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. JUST ABOVE THE SFC...WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 35KT RANGE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A STEEP INVERSION SO THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL NOT BE REALIZED IN THE GUSTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR AVIATION. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY FOR TONIGHT. THERE WAS SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 925MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE 925MB TEMPS WILL LEVEL OUT THIS EVENING...AND THEN COLD ADVECT AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE STEEP INVERSION AND LOW DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER DARK WITH THE CLEAR SKIES. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF THIN CIRRUS OVERHEAD IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT AGAIN BY WED MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE FCST MINS...WHICH ARE 0 TO -11 BELOW ZERO...WITH LONE ROCK THE COLD SPOT AND MKE/PORT WASHINGTON THE WARM SPOT. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT WINDS TO GENERATE WIND CHILL VALUES LESS THAN -20F IN ALL OF THE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON WED...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 03Z THROUGH 18Z. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW....AFFECTING THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CLEARLY SHOW THE PARCHED LOOK TO SOUNDINGS. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS ALSO SHOWING ANY DECENT MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE WEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THINK THE COLDER 2 METER TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS LOOK BETTER THAN THE WARMER NAM NUMBERS. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARDS THE FORMER. THE WAVE ALOFT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES AS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LOWER LEVELS MOISTENING UP A BIT...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME. FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS ALL SHOWING ANOTHER WAVE...THIS ONE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE LAST....SWINGING THROUGH LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE...WEAK 700 OMEGA NOTED. THE UPPER JET CORE IS DISPLACED PRETTY FAR NORTH...SO NOT SEEING MUCH OF THE FAVORED DIVERGENCE REGIONS ACROSS THE CWA. WILL GO WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE PER CONSENSUS POPS. SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IMPRESSIVE 850 MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. GFS SATURATES MORE SO THAN THE ECMWF. 0.01 PAINTED BY THE GFS IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS QPF IN THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. IN FACT 850 WINDS PROGGS WELL OVER 50 KNOTS RIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY MID LEVELS. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY LOOK OF THE ECMWF/OLD GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLES...KEEPING PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA. SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM SURFACE LOW VICINITY OF EASTERN UP PROGGD TO SHIFT EAST WITH ECMWF SHOWING STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION. BY 00Z MONDAY 850 TEMPS FROMECMWF ARE 4-6C WHILE GFS SHOWING -5 TO -7C WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW. STEERED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE MILDER ECMWF WHICH APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS ARE GRAVITATING TOWARDS. EVEN THE MORE CYCLONIC LOOKING GFS IS NOT ROBUST ON THE QPF. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ECMWF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NEXT IN A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A VERY SHARP 850 TROUGH. AGAIN...SUFRACE LOW IS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME UPPER JET ACTION...THOUGH BY AND LARGE LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. SURFACE/850 RIDGE SLIDES IN PRETTY QUICK LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH 850 RIDGE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST. WARMING MORE PRONOUNCED ON GFS THAN ECMWF. PRECIP STAYS WEST OF THE CWA. MIXED PRECIP POTENTIAL/PERHAPS JUST RAIN...FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS 1000-2000 FT WNW WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGE SHOWED ICE COVER FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING OVER THE NSH WATERS THROUGH WED EVENING...WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA AT TIMES...MAINLY IN THE WIND GUSTS. FEEL THAT THE SITUATION IS TOO MARGINAL AT THE TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN THROUGH WED EVENING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE  FXUS63 KMKX 092129 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 PM CST WED FEB 9 2011 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS AND WIND CHILL TEMPS WITHIN ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS THE SFC DECOUPLES FROM UPPER LEVELS AND MIXING CEASES. WINDS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE WILL BE SLOWER TO DECOUPLE...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE WEST WITH THE DECOUPLED WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE -10F AND LOWER TEMPS FOR MINS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE APPROX FROM FOND DU LAC TO JUNEAU TO WATERTOWN TO BURLINGTON. COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ WHERE THE WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME COLD SPOTS IN PARTS OF THE WESTERN CWA...BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK WIDESPREAD OR LONG ENOUGH DURATION TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVY AT THIS TIME. ISSUED WIND CHILL ADVY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...WITH THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BEGINNING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THE REST OF THE COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL BEGIN THU AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE. A FEW HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID CLOUDS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TEENS. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FCST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NW FLOW ALOFT BUT SWLY SFC WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THE ONSET THOUGH...THU NT WILL BE COLD DUE TO LGT WINDS AND SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS. FOR FRI...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SFC TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BUT VERY WEAK LIFT SO KEPT POPS LOW. WEAK SFC RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE SFC TROUGH FRI NT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH COOLING TEMPS. SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ON SAT WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ALBERTA CANADA TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS THAT SAME AREA. GOOD 850 MB WARM ADVECTION TO BRING 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WARM ADVECTION IS WEAKER ALOFT. MODELS STILL HANGING ONTO DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SO KEPT OUT MENTION OF PCPN BUT IF WAA INCREASES THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER...PCPN CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED. WARM ADVECTION TO BOOST 850 MB TEMPS FROM -8C ON FRI TO +2-4C ON SAT WITH SFC HIGH TEMPS REACHING AT LEAST THE MID 30S ON SAT. .LONG TERM...FCST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GRTLKS ON SUN WITH WARM ADVECTION AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER SRN WI. HIGH TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 30S. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUN NT AND MON AM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION. POLAR HIGH OVER CENTRAL USA TO THEN SHIFT EWD WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER ALBERTA CANADA DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN/USA GREAT PLAINS ON WED. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH TEMPS FROM MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WARM ADVECTION MAY GENERATE SOME VERY LGT PCPN. && .AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS THE SFC DECOUPLES FROM UPPER LEVELS AND MIXING CEASES. WINDS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE WILL BE SLOWER TO DIE DOWN...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THU AFTERNOON AND BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT. && .MARINE...WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY EASE INTO THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES RELAXES. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA UNTIL AT LEAST FRI AFTERNOON. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS ICE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE NEARSHORE FROM WINTRHOP HARBOR UP TO NORTH POINT LIGHT...AND ABOUT HALF THE WIDTH FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHHEBOYGAN...AND EVEN UP TO MANITOWOC. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ058>060-064>066-070>072. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ047-051-052. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...20 VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13  FXUS63 KMKX 100922 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 322 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH COLDEST AIR SETTLING IN OVER REGION THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. RIDGE HAS CALMED WINDS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN FORECAST AREA...SO WIND CHILLS NOT BEING REPORTED BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT THE OCCASIONAL PERIOD OF 5 MPH WIND WILL MEET OR EXCEED CRITERIA. PATCH OF THIN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MN WILL CLEAR SRN WISCONSIN AROUND DAWN SO STILL ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING AFTER SUNRISE. WILL KEEP CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY AS IS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST TODAY BEHIND RIDGE AXIS WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH COLD START...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH LATER START TO STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM WESTERN CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN WEST OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL TEMPER TEMPERATURE FALL TONIGHT...BUT WITH SLOWER WAA LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO COLDER MAV GUIDANCE. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH SRN WI ON FRIDAY. MODELS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...BUT DECENT SATURATION. THINK MOST PLACES WILL SEE AT LEAST A FEW FLAKES...BUT THINK CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. KEPT SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE EAST IN THE EVENING AS THE WAVES EXITS. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN SRN CANADA NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THE LOW...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MAKE IT INTO THE NRN CWA. PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FORECAST AREA PER THE GFS...THOUGH CANADIAN AND ECMWF SUGGEST DRY FORECAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE LOW APPROACHES...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY BECOMING WESTERLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP PULL UP A MILDER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ECMWF AND CANADIAN 2 METER TEMPS SUGGESTING LOW 40S BY SUNDAY...BUT NOT BITING ON THESE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE LATEST SNOW COVER ANALYSIS SHOWS SNOW ON THE GROUND AS FAR SOUTH AS A THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EAST INTO KY AND TN. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI MONDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE KY/TN BORDER TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET ACROSS SRN WI FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS ALONG WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND TYPICALLY MILD WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S. DECENT WAA THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE AREA. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SATURATION CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5 KFT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MORE LIKELY RESULT IN A DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. WITH COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...WITH TEMPS THEN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST DRIZZLE OR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS/CIRRUS THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING CIRRUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...LOWERING TO AC OVERNIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z FRIDAY AT KMKE...WILL LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. && .MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF TROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING UP TO 20-25 KNOT WINDS. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING ICE COVER BEYOND THE 5 NAUTICAL MILE MARK SOUTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT...AND AT LEAST HALF OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS COVERED TO THE NORTH...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PREDICATED ON WINDS ONLY AS WAVES WILL BE SUPPRESSED WITH ICE AND OFFSHORE FLOW. CURRENT GUST FORECASTS AT 20 KNOTS...WHICH MEANS A FEW GUSTS COULD REACH/EXCEED 22 KNOTS...BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047- 051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...NONE. && $$ FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV/07 TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM/09  FXUS63 KMKX 132129 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 PM CST SUN FEB 13 2011 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IMPRESSIVELY MILD THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. NAM AND GFS 2 METER TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES TOO WARM...WHILE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DOING FAIRLY WELL. ONLY SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER DECK POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT WITH CAA. WITH TEMPS STARTING OFF IN THE 40S...WINDS STAYING UP ALL NIGHT...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATER ON...LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER SIDE FOR LOWS TONIGHT. WENT WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN AND ECMWF...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOISTURE DEEPER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SO LEFT OUT ANY PRECIP MENTION. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TOMORROW IS INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT...AND WHETHER OR NOT GUSTS WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. ISSUE IS WHAT LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 KFT. GFS HAS MORE OF A MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO REALIZE HIGHER WINDS TO THE SFC. NAM AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARRANT A BIT MORE CONCERN. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW PACK WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER NEAR THE SFC TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY HELP INHIBIT REALLY GOOD LAPSE RATES. IN THE END...OPTED TO NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY...AS NOT CONVINCED ON THE BEST MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. STILL THINK GUSTS COULD GET UP TO 40 MPH THOUGH...THE BEST CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO COLD ADVECT ON MONDAY...BUT SKIES WILL TURN SUNNY AND THINK ENOUGH MILDER AIR WILL LINGER EARLY TO SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE MID LEVEL BECOMES MORE ZONAL AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES REACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS WISCONSIN EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE STILL DEEP SNOW COVER AND NEAR CALM WINDS EARLY SETTING UP A STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS RATHER LIGHT TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING EVEN WEST OF MADISON WHERE 950 MB WINDS INCREASE TO TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS INTO TUESDAY SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET TOO WARM DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH EXPECT A THICKENING CIRRUS CLOUD COVER BY TUESDAY EVENING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION BELOW 950 MB...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS TROUGH DROPS INTO THE WEST COAST REGION OF THE U.S. DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AT 850 MB BUT THIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. DEEPER SURFACE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH FROM EAST TEXAS AS RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES TO THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONLY REACHES MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ON WEDNESDAY. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME DRY AIR REMAINING IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH SATURATION IN THE LOWEST 4 THSD FT TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. NAM SOUNDINGS THEN DECREASE THE DEPTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND LOWERS...AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE PLUME MOVES EAST AS THE 850 MB WINDS DECREASES AND BECOME MORE WEST. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND BOTH EJECT AN SHORTWAVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...REACHING MINNESOTA OR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER...THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW STRONGER. BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF DEVELOP A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA THURSDAY THEN MOVE IT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS WITH THE ECMWF MORE TOWARDS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH BOTH TAKING IT NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...WITH THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH MODELS BRING MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...BUT 12Z ECMWF HAS INCREASED THE AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN. THEREFORE ANY RIVER RISES WOULD BE MAINLY FROM MELTING SNOW COVER. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS. GFS SHOWS SATURATED LOWER LEVELS THURSDAY BELOW 5 THSD FT BUT MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES IN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS. ECMWF IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND IS PREFERRED. THEREFORE WILL DELAY COLD AIR ADVECTION UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME WE NEED TO DECIDE ON A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT ON GFS VS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ON ECMWF...THE LOW IS NEAR OR EXITING THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION AND THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LOW. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM GFS TAKES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS MOVES THIS OFF RATHER QUICKLY EAST...REACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER ECMWF IS SLOWER...STILL BUILDING THE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY GFS BEGINS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH AS...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER ECMWF ONLY WEAKENS THE HIGH SOMEWHAT OVER WISCONSIN...WHILE THE MAIN LOW IS STILL ORGANIZING OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT SOES HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. && .AVIATION... MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME BKN MVFR POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND SFC TROUGH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM OBS THOUGH...AS THE MAV SUGGESTS CIGS STAY VFR...THOUGH GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT DO FORM SHOULD BREAK UP MONDAY MORNING...WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS. BUMPED WIND GUSTS UP IN THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE AND STILL THINK THESE GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG JUST ABOVE THE SFC...AND WILL KEEP LLVL SHEAR GOING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW GOOD MIXING WILL BE IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KFT. GFS LESS IMPRESSIVE AND WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN GUSTS A BIT LOWER THAN IN TAFS. LEANED TOWARD HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL REFLECTED IN NAM AND SREF SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. MORE LIKELY TO GET GALE GUSTS TOWARD OPEN WATERS THIS EVENING...WITH A PRETTY GOOD BET THROUGH THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. DECREASED ICE COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CURRENT TIME FRAME...DUE TO WEB CAMS AND LATEST MODIS IMAGERY. WITH MILD TEMPS AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW...DROPPED ICE COVERAGE ALL THE WAY TO ZERO FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THUS EXPECTING WAVES TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET WITH STRONG WINDS...THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS DUE TO OFFSHORE NATURE OF WINDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...07/DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 250809 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 309 AM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAIN ISSUE THIS PERIOD PERTAIN TO SMALL LAKE EFFECT THREAT. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT LESS THAN TWO TENTHS INCH HOWEVER SOME INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LIES TO THE NORTH AS DEPICTED BY 00Z GRB SOUNDING. GRB RADAR SHOWING WEAK CIRCULATION OVER LAKE MI NE OF KMTW PRODUCING SCT DBZ OVER 20. BOTH NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW 1000-850MB FLOW VEERING ONSHORE THIS MRNG AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY. MODIS SEA SFC TEMP IMAGE FROM THU EVE HAS LAKE TEMP AROUND 2-3C. HENCE DELTA-T INCREASES TO 13-15 DEGREES LATER THIS MRNG AS BRIEF SURGE OF HIGHER RH SLIDES SWWD INTO SE WI. LAKE INDUCED CAPE INCREASES TO 150J. LOW LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT THIS AFTN AND EVE...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE. HENCE WL BUMP UP TO LOW POPS ALONG LAKESHORE FOR TODAY...WITH LINGERING FLURRIES FOR TNGT. EXPC MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO LINGER THIS MRNG IN SOUTH AS STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM UPPER JET PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTN SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN THESE CLOUDS. CAN NOT GO TOO LOW WITH TNGTS TEMPS DUE TO POSSIBILITY OF LAKE CLOUDS SPREADING WWD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING A BIT BETTER MOISTURE 3-4K FEET WHILE THE GFS IS LESS MOIST AT THAT LAYER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH PERSISTENT ENE FLOW. 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE FROM U.P. TO LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL ESPECIALLY WITH DRY COLUMN. DELTA T AND TRAJECTORIES BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. DELTA T REACHES 15-16C WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS 5-6K FEET. THE NAM AND GFS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR SHOWING LIGHT QPF MOVING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING THE LAKESHORE AREAS 6Z-18Z SUNDAY. WILL PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE LAKESIDE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS GO DRY AFTER 18Z SUNDAY THOUGH NAM SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN LOOSENING THE GRIP OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING APPROACHING. GFS BREAKS DOWN THIS RIDGE PRETTY QUICK AND SHOOTS A VORT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH MAIN ENERGY ALSO QUICKER TO APPROACH. VORT PATTERN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE ON THE ECMWF/CANADIAN KEEPING THINGS BACK IN THE PLAINS A BIT LONGER. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER AND PREFERRED WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. 00Z ECMWF HAS AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE AND ACTUALLY HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE GFS. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN SOLUTION HAS THE HIGH DOMINATING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH NO PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SCALING BACK ON THE CONSALL POPS WHICH HAD POPS CWA WIDE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO BE DOMINANT WITH DECENT CONSENSUS AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN. WILL GO WITH THE DRY AND CLEANER QPF LOOK OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. && .AVIATION...MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH SHOULD THIN LATER TODAY AND THIS EVE. PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY AFFECT ERN TAF SITES LATER THIS MRNG DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LAYER RH THINS AGAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY BUT INCREASES AGAIN LATER TNGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 090830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT SAT APR 9 2011 FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. .TODAY AND TONIGHT...COMING SHORTLY... .SHORT TERM...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. BRISK SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA FOR HIGHS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 19C 925MB TEMPERATURES ON THE GFS...WITH LOWER 20S ON THE NAM...SUPPORTED THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS. DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S SHOULD ALSO SHIFT INTO THE AREA...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT HUMID DAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED A DECENT CAP IN PLACE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. PEAK HEATING AND INCREASING 850MB LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP WEAKEN CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRE FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH WEAKENING CAP TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE COLD FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE EASTWARD MOVING PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 70 KNOTS...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS...SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC DAY 2 MODERATE RISK WITH HATCHED AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE LOOKS GOOD...AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO HIGH RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ALL IN ALL...A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED... .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY MONDAY...AS SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALSO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. DRIER AIR THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...MOIST ELY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS OR LWR FOR MUCH OF THE PD. MODEL GUIDANCE TRYING TO BUMP UP CIGS TO VFR THIS AFTN...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON SE WINDS...COULD SEE CIGS REMAINING LWR UNTIL STRONG WMFNT MOVES THRU LATER TNGT AND WNDS VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF STRATUS NORTH OF WMFNT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MS VLY. ALSO CONCERN FOR DENSE ADVECTION FOG DEVELOPING IN EAST DUE TO INCREASING WARM AND MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER COOLER LAKE MI WATERS. WL LIKELY REMAIN MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH 12Z TAFS. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM SEVERAL DAYS REVEALED SEA SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 3.5C. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO A MORE SE DIRECTION...DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS LAKE MI. HENCE WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF ADVECTION FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE TODAY...POSSIBLY TURNING DENSE TNGT AS SFC DEWPTS APPROACH 50. LOW LEVEL INVERSION WL PREVENT STRONGER E WNDS FROM MIXING TO LAKE SFC UNTIL WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MRNG. BETTER MIXING OVER THE SHORE AREAS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25 KTS ON SUN AND SUN EVE. TIGHTENING PRES GRAD AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH WL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS SUN NGT INTO MON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 231958 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 300 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE 500MB LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST AS WELL OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT WILL DROP DOWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW AND CROSS THE FORECAST AREA /CWA/ FROM 05Z TO 08Z. EXPECTING SOME LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...THEN THEY SHOULD SCATTER OUT DURING THE TUE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING. WINDS WILL BE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY A BIT GUSTY...THEN THEY WILL DIE DOWN A BIT AND VEER NORTHEAST BY 12Z TUE...THEN VEER EASTERLY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 23MPH TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING. THE 850MB FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRAIL WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...NOT DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN WI UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON. THE 10C LINE ACTUALLY STAYS FAIRLY STATIONARY FROM NOW THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT DOWN THE LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WI SHOULD ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW 50S. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TUE AFTERNOON FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STAY MUCH COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS...IN THE LOW 50S. LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE /SST/ IMAGE FROM SUN AFTERNOON SHOWED MID LAKE SST OF AROUND 45F...AND TEMPS ALONG THE SHORELINE IN THE LOW 50S. THE SOUTH MID LAKE BUOY SHOWED AN AIR TEMPERATURE OF 47F THIS AFTERNOON. .SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AT 18Z WED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. NAM AND NEW ECMWF NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOCATION. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ON THURSDAY. LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO...STILL SPREADS INTO SRN WI LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 3H JET ALSO SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI ON WED. PREFER SLOWER ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTION WHICH LINGERS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OVER SRN WI WED NGT INTO THU. WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS FOR FORCING AND HIGH COLUMN RH FOR WED INTO WED NGT. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY CARRY OVER INTO THE EARLY EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH MID-WEEK SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE. GEM MORE IN LINE WITH SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. GEM/ECMWF SHOW MID LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL IL AT 00Z/FRI. HENCE WL EXPAND CHANCE POPS OVER MORE OF SOUTHEAST WI ON THU AND BEEF UP POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE POPS SHOW A DECREASING TREND DURING THE DAY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THU. UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH THE WAVE EAST OF SRN WI. BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN THU NGT INTO FRI. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR BUT LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE AGREEMENT ON HAVING WEAK WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY REGION ON SAT. ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS. LARGE DIFFERENCES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SUN AND MON. GFS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LARGE SCALE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH LONG WAVE TROFFING UPSTEAM OVER PAC NW. MEANWHILE...ECMWF SHOWING FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COOLER SOLUTION. WITH AGREEMENT FROM 144HR UKMT...WL TREND TOWARD COOLER ECMWF AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. THIS INDICATES LESS CREDIBILITY IN GFS 5DAY MEANS...WHICH STILL HAS WARMER LOOK FOR GTLAKES AND ERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE...WITH THE END OF DIURNAL HEATING. THEN A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WI TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT NORTH JUST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN QUICKLY VEER NORTHEAST BY 12Z TUE MORNING...THEN EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT...THEN AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF GUSTS IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING. CLOUDS MAY BECOME MVFR ALONG THE FRONT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .MARINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AROUND DUSK WITH THE END OF THE DAYTIME MIXING...THEREFORE WILL KEEP END TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OF 00Z/24. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THE STRONGER WINDS AND WIND SHIFT MAY RUSH DOWN THE LAKE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THEY WILL ON LAND. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH AND A LITTLE GUSTY...SHORT-LIVED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THEN JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST AND BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET WITH THE FAVORABLE NORTH NORTHEAST FETCH ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. WAVES MAY REACH 5 FEET ACROSS SOUTHERN NSH ZONES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A 1000-1005 MB LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST BETWEEN THIS LOW AND 1020-1025 MB HIGH OVER ONTARIO TO PRODUCE BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WAVES BUILD INTO 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE SO THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OPPORTUNITY. && .CONFIDENCE... .TONIGHT...HIGH. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM. .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW TO MEDIUM. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MEDIUM. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY LOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVY LMZ643>646 TIL 00Z/24. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 310838 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 338 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011 UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MN WL CARRY COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS WI TODAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRONT KNOCKING ON WRN WI DOOR AT 12Z AND MOVING ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH MID-AFTN AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WRN ONT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION ONGOING AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THIS MRNG DUE TO PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET. BLUE RIVER PROFILER SHOWING WINDS OF 50KTS IN LOWEST GATES...AROUND 1KM. DEEP CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH OVER 500 J OF CIN. NEVER THE LESS...WEAK ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR MOSAIC OVER FAR EASTERN IA INTO SW WI. POTENT SHORT WAVE NOW OVER WRN KS/ERN CO AREA EXPCD TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND ACROSS NRN IA/SRN MN BY LATE MRNG AND ACROSS SW INTO CENTRAL WI IN THE EARLY AFTN. FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WL COINCIDE WITH PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. CAP IS EXPECTED TO ERODE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND MID MRNG AND IN THE EARLY AFTN IN THE SOUTHEAST. HENCE...EXPC SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND POSSIBLY EXPAND TO LINEAR MCS OVER SE WI IN THE EARLY AFTN. DUE TO ENHANCED FORCING FROM NEARBY WAVE...WL CONT LIKELY WORDING IN THE NORTH AND EAST FOR TODAY. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO OVER 60KTS EARLY IN THE AFTN WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. 0-3KM VGP INCREASES TO AROUND 0.3. CAPE EXPCD TO INCREASE TO 2-3K JOULES BY EARLY AFTN...SO FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE MAIN WEATHER THREATS...BUT ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. STRONG MIXING EXPCD TO DEVELOP BY MID MRNG...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 35KTS. LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO DMSH LATER IN THE MRNG AS CLOUDS THICKEN...SO VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH WIND ADVY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. DRY AIR SURGES IN BEHIND FRONT DURING THE AFTN AND EARLY EVE AND SETTLES OVER THE REGION TNGT WITH DECREASING WINDS. .WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY JUST TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED OVERALL...SO TAPERED BACK POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALSO NOW KEEPING THE NORTHEAST DRY. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR NOW...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SW CWA. EASTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE COOLER...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS POSSIBLE WELL INLAND. A BIT TRICKY WITH THE WARM FRONT GETTING CLOSER. SOME MODELS TRY TO PUSH THE FAR SW INTO THE LOW 80S...AND WENT WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS THERE PER THIS POSSIBILITY. KEPT SOME POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE CAP WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE LAST. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS...WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME FOG OVER THE LAKE AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE COOLER WATERS. ADDED AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE FOR THU/THU NIGHT...AND MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY ADD INLAND NEAR THE LAKE AS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION INCREASES. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A WARM AND CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. A LITTLE SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS 24-25C AND THE ECMWF A VERY WARM 27-28C. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE RESULTING IN UPPER 80S. BROUGHT WARM AIR ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE WITH WINDS SOUTHERLY...OR JUST WEST OF SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FORCING WEAK AND MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED WITH THE LOW WELL TO THE NORTH. WENT DRY WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE...AS A WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN IMPACT. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM ECMWF AND CANADIAN IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS KEEPS A FLATTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW THOUGH...RESULTING IN A FEW DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH. KEPT A FEW ROUNDS OF LOW POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD PER THE GFS...BUT CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF A DRY WEEKEND IF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN VERIFY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...AS EVEN THE GFS IS SHOWING A VERSION OF RIDGING IN THE REGION BY MONDAY. && .AVIATION...SCT CONVECTION EXPCD TO DEVELOP THIS MRNG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AS SFC OCCLUSION AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACH. CONVECTION EXPCD TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD INTO SE WI IN THE EARLY AFTN. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA. VSBY/CIGS WL LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR SHOULD ONE OF THESE STORMS MAKE A DIRECT HIT AT A TAF SITE. DRIER AIR AND VEERING WINDS TO THE WEST WILL END THE CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI BY MID AFTN...AND BY 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR TNGT. WIND GUSTS TO 30-35 KTS ONCE SFC MIXING COMMENCES BY MID-MRNG. && .MARINE...CLEAR MODIS IMAGE FROM MONDAY EARLY AFTN SHOWED SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S...WHILE MID LAKE TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S DUE TO OVERTURNING. TIGHTENING PRESS GRADIENT THIS MORNING AND SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN STRONG MIXING EARLY THIS MRNG. HENCE WL BUMP UP START OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY SEVERAL HOURS...AND RUN INTO THE EVE. FEW GUSTS NEAR THE SHORE MAY REACH 30-35 KNOTS LATER THIS MRNG/EARLY AFTN. EXPC SCT CONVECTION TO AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS BTWN 18Z AND 22Z. FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 33 KTS AND LARGE HAIL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV/07 TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11  FXUS63 KMKX 020841 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 341 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2011 UPDATED TO ADD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM FORECAST EMPHASIS ON THREAT OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WI CURRENTLY ON EDGE OF WEAK MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 600MB FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS. WITH UPSTREAM PWAT APPROACHING 1 INCH OVER ERN IA...WIDELY SCT -SHRA/-TSRA HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER NE IA AND MOVING SE AFFECTING SMALL PARTS OF SRN CWA. FWF WEAKENS THIS MRNG AS LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 85H JET REFOCUSES TO THE WEST. EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY SHOWING UP AS SCT CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS NRN IA INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVER WI AGAIN LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DESPITE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST...DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO SRN WI TODAY WITH PWATS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEAR 1.5 INCHES. UPSTREAM NE SHORT WAVE/MESOSCALE INDUCED EDDY EXPCD TO MOVE ENE ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL THIS AFTN. THINKING TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH PIVOTING LLJ AND OTHER WITH THIS FEATURE. SRN WI CAUGHT IN BETWEEN BUT ENOUGH DIFFERENTIAL VORT ADVEC AND WEAK ENHANCED FORCING FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...THAT WL NEED TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR T MOST AREAS INTO THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT DIMINISHING TREND FROM THE WEST AS WARM MID LEVEL CAPPING SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST. DRIER ELY FLOW SHOULD INITIALLY MINIMIZE PRECIP THREAT IN THE EAST THIS MRNG. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS MOST AREAS. CLEAR MODIS IMAGE FROM WED AFTN SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LINGERING DRIER AIR AT THE SFC AND LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD KEEP FOG IN CHECK TNGT. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HAVING THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A WARM AND CAPPED AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. A LITTLE SPREAD CONTINUES IN HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL...WITH THE GFS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS 24-25C AND THE NAM/ECMWF 26-27C. CONTINUED TO GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE RESULTING IN HIGHS AROUND 90. BIGGEST CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THAT MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A BIT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND NEAR THE LAKE. COULD NOT IGNORE THIS...SO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THERE. COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH AND FRONT WILL COME THROUGH WELL AFTER DAYTIME HEATING. EVEN SO...STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS TO GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 35 KNOTS POINTING INTO SRN WI ALONG WITH PLENTY OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/K SUGGESTS THAT STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SPC HIGHLIGHTS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONSENSUS OF MODELS HAS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. FRONT NOT VERY STRONG THOUGH...AND WARMER AIR WILL LINGER...WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S SUGGESTING LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. MODELS KEEP THE FRONT NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH...SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM OVERALL PICTURE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WITH SFC WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUICKEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE BY MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THIS BY TUESDAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL TIMING...LINGERED LOW POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION...LEANING TOWARD CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST KEEPING CIGS/VSBYS MOSTLY VFR FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING TAF SITE COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS THRU THE EVE...ESPECIALLY AT KMSN IN DEEPER MOISTURE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON T DURING SPECIFIC PDS TODAY INTO THIS EVE SO WL CONT TO USE VCNTY REMARK. && .MARINE...BACKDOOR FRONT SWITCHED WINDS OVER TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WL REMAIN ONSHORE TODAY...GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SSE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WL CAUSE WINDS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS ON FRI. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV/07 TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11  FXUS63 KMKX 190829 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COMPACT SHORT WAVE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST WI COMBINING WITH HIGH PWAT TO PRODUCE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE WEST OF CWA. KLNR RECEIVED 0.44 INCHES IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR. SHORT WAVE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS MRNG SO EXPC AT LEAST SCT WEAKER TSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AS STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCD WITH WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL WI...HOWEVER WDLY SCT WEAKER CONVECTION MAY YET FORM IN THIS AREA. CORFIDI VECTORS INCREASE SLIGHTLY THRU MID-MRNG BUT WL NEED TO WATCH WEST FOR HEAVY RAINFALL /ESPECIALLY SAUK CO/. ENHANCED FORCING WITH WAVE SPREADS TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MRNG...HWVR LINGERING MUCAPES INCREASES TO OVER 2K J IN WRN CWA THIS AFTN. WL KEEP SMALL POP LINGERING THIS AFTN FOR POTENTIAL AIR MASS THUNDER. EXPC QUIET EVE BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. BEST CONVERGENCE REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA...HOWEVER WL BE ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY AND SPREAD SCHC FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION GRADIENT SPREADS INTO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO BE NEAR OR ACROSS WI AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY. THIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING UP QUICKLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. INCREASING 850 LOW LEVEL JET DRIVES MCS DEVELOPMENT...NAM AND GFS SHOWING THIS TO OUR SOUTH WHILE CANADIAN/ECMWF AND HPC TEND TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHERN FOCUS IN SRN/CENTRAL WI. THE CORE OF THE 850 JET TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND THIS PLACEMENT WOULD TEND TO FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO SRN WI. SKINNY CAPE IN THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER LEVEL CIN REALLY TAKES HOLD. ELEVATED CAPE...ABOVE 600 MILLIBARS REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY OFF THE GFS. BAND OF DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEPICTED BY MODELS. WILL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHWEST CORNER WHERE SURFACE WARM FRONT MAY GET CLOSE AND BETTER PROXIMITY TO IOWA MODERATE RISK AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES QUITE IMPRESSIVE OVER 9C AND GFS SURFACE BASED LI/S APPROACH -10. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM NEARLY STACKED LOW LIFTS FROM ERN NEB TO SW MN. WARM FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND CWA IS MOSTLY IN VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 850 JET LEANS MORE TOWARDS CWA AND DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO WESTERN CWA. 0-1KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 0-6KM SHEAR PEAKS AT NEAR 40 KNOTS AT 18Z THEN DROPS A BIT BY 00Z. 250 MILLIBAR WIND MAX ROUNDS TROUGH AND RIDES ABOVE THE 850 MB 35 KNOT JET MAX. BUFKIT SHOWING CAPE VALUES REACHING 2500 J/KG WITH LI/S AROUND -8. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS MONDAY BUT STILL OVER 7C. MORNING CONVECTION LIKELY FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO 850 WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE/850 COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE WARM FRONT SETS UP IN THE NORTHERN CWA PER THE NAM WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE IT FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION COULD END UP SUPPRESSING THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH...MORE LIKE THE NAM POSITION. AS SPC POINTED OUT SURFACE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS AREA FOR STORMS EXHIBITING TORNADOGENESIS...SO PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND RENEWED CONVECTION INITIATES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER LOW WILL PLOD ALONG THIS PERIOD AND KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER GOING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTER TUESDAY NIGTH DRY SLOT. 00Z CANADIAN IS A COMPROMISE ON UPPER LOW POSITION BETWEEN 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF. THIS WOULD STILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES ALIVE THURSDAY...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE DEEP THROES OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM WILL GO DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT...ALTHOUGH PATTERN LOOKS MORE BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC...NO BIG BUILDUP OF A UPPER RIDGE. 00Z ECMWF EXTENDING LIGHT QPF INTO THE SW CWA FRIDAY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE THOUGH FIRST TIME SHOWING THIS AND MAIN FOCUS LOOKS SOUTHWEST OF HERE SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WL LINGER OVER WRN CWA FOR A TIME THIS MRNG BEFORE THINNING. MVFR CLOUDS WL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR FEED FROM THE EAST...BUT MAY AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME ALONG WITH A FEW TSTORMS. OTRW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WL AFFECT SRN WI THIS MRNG...THINNING BY AFTN. MAY BE A FEW TSTORMS THIS AFTN DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE ISOLD. THREAT FOR CONVECTION INCREASES LATE TNGT AND MON MRNG AS WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE SPREADS INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AREA. && .MARINE...LATEST COAST WATCH AND MODIS IMAGERY HAS LAKE MI SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...CONFIRMED BY SRN LK MI BUOY. STRONG WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. CONVECTIONS CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 192030 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEPER INSTABILITY AREAS WITH THE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING SUNSET. HRRR DEVELOPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SFC CONVERGENCE AREA AND POSSIBLE AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN NE IOWA AND SPREADS IT INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY EVENING. RUC SNDGS AND LAPS SHOW SOME STRETCHING POTENTIAL ALONG WITH CAPE INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN CWA...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET A WEAK UPDRAFT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPIN UP A FUNNEL CLOUD. WILL WATCH CLOSELY. SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE TONIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET. ANY STORMS WOULD RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT MON MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS. CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. DENSE FOG DEVELOPED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AT LEAST RACINE TO PORT WASHINGTON. IT IS DEPICTABLE FROM ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS. WEB CAMS OVER PARTS OF MILWAUKEE ALSO SHOW VERY LOW CLOUDS...THESE CLOUDS COULD POTENTIALLY DROP TO THE SFC WHEN DAYTIME HEATING ENDS AROUND SUNSET AND CREATE DENSE FOG OVER THE CITY. IN ADDITION...ANY FOG FROM THE NEARSHORE COULD ADVECT ONSHORE THIS EVENING AS WELL. .SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. UNCERTAINTY LIES IN WHERE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH AND WEST CWA WITH FORCING DUE TO CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF INCREASING 850MB WINDS FOCUSING MORE TO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NORTH...THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY PER 850-700MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FORECASTS. LIFT AIDED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE IN DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF JET MAX FOCUSED OVER SRN MN/NERN IA AT 06Z TUESDAY THAT SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...DEVELOPS A DEEP WARM LAYER BETWEEN 900MB AND 600MB THAT CAPS EVEN ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST...SO CHANCE POPS THERE FOR NOW. HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED IF SFC FRONT/850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH. MCS COULD RUMBLE THROUGH LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING. INVERSION WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVECTION FOG OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE...SO WILL KEEP PREVIOUS SHIFT/S ADDITION OF AREAS OF FOG FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES. COOLER LAKESHORE LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH WESTERN LOCATIONS SEEING LOWS AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMES AS APPROACHING UPPER LOW COOLS MID LAYERS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...WITH INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO 40-50 KTS WITH SPEED MAX MOVING UP ERN FLANK OF UPPER LOW. EXTRA DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COMES WITH DIFFERENTIAL CVA AS ALL MODELS SHOW A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING THROUGH SRN WI TUESDAY EVENING. IF MCS DOES DEVELOP AND MOVES ACROSS SRN WI LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...IT WILL STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A LIKELY POP FOR THE DAY...THOUGH .WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. INSTABILITY WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WISCONSIN...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF SRN WI AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY TRACKS FROM E CENTRAL MN TO EITHER NW WI OR UPPER PENINSULA DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION. EITHER WAY LOOKS AS IF ENOUGH CAPE FOR PRECIPITATION MODE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS. IN SPITE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING WARMTH UP TO THE LAKE SHORE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE FAR WEST WHERE COOLER AIR WRAPPING AROUND AND UNDER SURFACE LOW WILL REACH FIRST. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. IN SPITE OF FASTER PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW VS GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN DROP A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH WISCONSIN THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP POPS FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW STILL CLIPPING EASTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY...WITH A SHORT WAVE SLIDING THRU SO HAVE TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH MAINLY FOR NORTHEAST CWA. DRY WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. MODELS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE SUNDAY...MAINLY EARLY BUT WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FEED OF DRY AIR AND DRY LOOK TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL NOT BRING IN ANY PRECIPITATION. 850 TEMPS ON THE ECMWF FALL TO +5 TO +6C THURSDAY...BUT CANADIAN ONLY DIPS TO +9C AT 12Z FRIDAY. A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL USE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH AN OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. AT LEAST IFR FOG WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOWER CIGS. DENSE FOG OVER LAKE MI NEAR MILWAUKEE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD INLAND AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING...SO MITCHELL FIELD COULD HAVE DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG A SHORTWAVE AS A WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE SPREADS INTO NRN IL/SRN WI AREA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IT IN TAFS YET. && .MARINE...DENSE FOG TO ABOUT 10 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTY TO RACINE COUNTY...DEDUCED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION AND MILWAUKEE HARBOR WEBCAMS. DENSE FOG ADVY WILL BE EXPANDED UP TO SHEBOYGAN...ALTHOUGH SHEBOYGAN WEBCAMS ARE CLEAR FOR NOW...AND ADVY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 9 PM. I DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR HOW LONG THIS FOG WILL STICK AROUND. THE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG ANYWHERE ON THE LAKE WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS FLOWING INTO THE AREA. LATEST COAST WATCH AND MODIS IMAGERY HAS LAKE MI SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S...CONFIRMED BY SRN LK MI BUOY. STRONG WARM FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INCREASING THE THREAT FOR DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUE. CONVECTION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...09/REM VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 122024 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 324 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011 TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONGER MAIN WAVE. THESE FACTORS BRING INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN WI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /PWATS/ 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES...HIGHEST IN SOUTHWEST WI. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SFC AND 300-310K THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SW WI AS WELL. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30 TO 40 KNOTS...AIDED BY 20+ KNOT SW 850MB WINDS. MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500J/KG DO NOT SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SO SPC REMOVED SOUTHERN WI FROM THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 500MB VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION INTO WESTERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH PROBABLY A LITTLE THUNDER /NOT DETECTED WITH THE CLOUD TO GROUND NLDN/ POPPING UP ALONG THIS AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION...THETA-E ADVECTION...WIND SHEAR...LLJ...AND HIGHER PWATS THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z HRRR PICKS UP ON THIS WEAK CONVECTION...BUT GENERATES MORE WIDESPREAD REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE MAIN VORT ADVECTION AREA A COUPLE HOURS LATER. THIS AREA CAN BE TIMED BY THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGHER WATER VAPOR VALUES IN THE WV SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH MAX DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN WI. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FROM APPROX MIDNIGHT FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS...UNTIL THE MAIN VORT MAX CAN APPROACH WI. THE MAIN VORT MAX IS IMPRESSIVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE. HOWEVER...12Z ECMWF AND REGIONAL CANADIAN MODELS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...GENERATE A BLOB OF QPF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SAT. THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE UPPER JET SPEED OR JUST THE PLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL LAST...SO JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS IN FCST FOR 06Z TO 12Z INSTEAD OF LIKELY. THEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE MAIN 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX. MOST OF THE MODELS TIME THE HIGHEST QPF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AROUND 15Z SAT AND KEEP IT HANGING AROUND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS IN FCST...NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP THEM UP TO DEFINITE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY WOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000J/KG WITH WEAK BULK SHEAR...SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THIS PERIOD FEATURES THE FIRST OF MANY SALVOS ACROSS OUR BOW SUGGESTING THAT THE TRANSITION SEASON IS FAST APPROACHING. THE SFC LOW HAS EXITED TO THE EAST BY THIS TIME WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF FOLLOWING IN SHORT ORDER. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS DOMINANTLY CYCLONIC WITH SOME SECONDARY SPOKES ROLLING THROUGH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW IS ENOUGH TO GET DELTA T/S OVER THE LAKE LARGE ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR MESOSCALE METEOROLOGICAL STUDIES /CIMSS/ MODIS 8 DAY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR OR AT THEIR SEASONAL PEAK OF 71 TO 73F. H8 TEMPS DROP TO ABOUT 12C...BRINGING A DELTA T OF 10. NOT EXCESSIVE...BUT COUPLED WITH THE FORCING FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED LLV CONVERGENCE...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE A GOOD BET. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CONTRAST AND FORCING QUICKLY DIMINISH. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED LOW LYING TERRAIN. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM. A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL TREK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. NOT A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRY AND PLEASANT YET AGAIN. && .AVIATION...AVAILABLE SHORTLY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE  FXUS63 KMKX 132035 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2011 .UPDATE... ADDED FIRST 24 HOUR DISCUSSION ALONG WITH AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM UPPER LOW OVER NW IOWA/SW WI/NW IL WILL SCOOT ACROSS NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING. WITH IT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL...WITH CAPE VALUES A LITTLE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND 6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SUB SEVERE. STORMS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRAILING VORT MAX BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND THE USUAL LOW LYING AREAS WITH THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS TODAY AND LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ACTUALLY POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW. 22C LAKE SFC TEMP PER MODIS 8-DAY AVERAGE...AND 10-11C 850MB AIR COMING DOWN THE LAKE...GIVES ALMOST A 13C DIFFERENCE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BEING GENERATED DUE TO THIS FEATURE. THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT A MINIMUM...WE CAN EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH A MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE LAKE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUN AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE PRETTY GUSTY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...ESPECIALLY SUN MORNING. THEY WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH ALL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER IA/WI LATE AT NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY RADIATION FOG. HAVE FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER AND MUCH HIGHER CLOUD COVER FOR LIKELY STRATUS AS WELL. MAY HAVE FOG ELSEWHERE TOO SO MAY HAVE TO EXPAND MENTION OF FOG IN LATER FORECASTS. MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH SURFACE HIGH OVER IL/WI/MI AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. GFS DEVELOPS ODD LOOKING NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF LIGHT PRECIP FROM NORTHEAST IL INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. GUESSING IT IS TRYING TO DEVELOP LAKE BREEZE STORMS BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER AND SEEMS LIKE A MAJOR STRETCH. TUESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE RIDGE IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM MICHIGAN AND RETURN FLOW REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALL BUT FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS FRONT INTO CENTRAL OR WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM LOOKS LIKE FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH RATHER FAST AND BE EAST OF WISCONSIN BY THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS MAINLY FROM EARLY REMNANT ACTIVITY AND ANY NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST. THURSDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. FRIDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT AND RETURN FLOW WELL WEST OF WI. ECMWF DOES HAVE SPOTTY WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY BUT THAT SEEMS LIKE A LONG SHOT. SATURDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW USUAL TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT ARE PRIMARY PROBLEM. GFS IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH NEXT FRONT AND MUCH WETTER, WHILE ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER AND MUCH DRIER. SMALL POPS SEEM WARRANTED. && .AVIATION... UPPER LOW CROSSING THE WI/IL BORDER THIS EVENING WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING QUICKLY. VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LIFR VSBYS...PEA SIZE HAIL AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY DARK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW...IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR ON GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWS DOWN THE LAKE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON...BUT WAVES WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVY CRITERIA BY EARLY SUN EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUN EVENING. .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02 VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC/13  FXUS63 KMKX 270835 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECIONS .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. WEAK SFC COOL FRONT WL EXIT SOUTHEAST WI EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE VCNTY OF FRONT INTERACTING WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET TO CAUSE AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS EXPCD TO ALSO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF WI THIS MRNG BUT MAY LINGER FOR A TIME BEYOND 12Z. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR BEHIND SFC FRONT HELPING TO MINIMIZE WIDESPREAD FOG THREAT THIS MRNG AS WELL. ENOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS TO RESULT IN FEW-SCT CU REDEVELOPING LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. DRY AIR AND MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS WITH M/S CONDITIONS EXPCD FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. WINDS TURNING ONSHORE WL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A FEW DEGREES COOLER. RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER WRN CWA TNGT WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG LATE...HOWEVER SOME CONCERN OVER AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. FOR NOW WL LIMIT FOG MENTION TO WI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW AREAS OF WEST. PER MODIS IMAGERY...LAKE SFC TEMP AROUND 21.5C. LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION OVER LAKE TONIGHT CAUSES DELTA T TO APPROACH 12 DEGREES. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE AREA LATE TNGT...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FOR NOW WL CONT M/CLR WORDING. .SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIRLY DRY ON NAM...WITH GFS SHOWING SOME CLOUDS SHIFTING THROUGH. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS NOW DO NOT HAVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...REDUCING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ONSHORE WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ON SUNDAY NEAR THE SHORE...COMBINED WITH DELTA T VALUES IN THE 10 TO 12 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE...BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN 1000/850MB LAYER FAIRLY DRY ON GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS...WITH NAM SHOWING MORE MOISTURE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR NEAR LAKE GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH QUIET WEATHER. COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S SUNDAY. THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNING. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH AIRMASS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY OTHERWISE. WENT WITH DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A RESULT. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA. NAM DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE FRONT MOVING IN. THUS...WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT DRY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF SHOW ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. GFS TAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH THE AREA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THIS TIME...SO LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR TUESDAY. STILL SOME EFFECTS OF VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT TO LEAVE LOW POPS IN FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF THEN SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN OCCURS UPSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ECMWF IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS ONLY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THE GFS HAS THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...SLOWER ON THE ECMWF. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRIER AIR PUSH BEHIND SFC COOL FRONT MINIMIZING WIDESPREAD FOG THREAT EARLY THIS MRNG. EXPC FEW-SCT CU REDEVELOPING THIS MRNG AFTER MID CLOUDS FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDE SOUTH OF AREA. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM WEST. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SFC FRONT WL RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER NEARSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WL CAUSE WAVES TO EXCEED 4 FEET. STRONGEST WINDS EXPCD OVER THE SOUTH...SO WL POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR SRN THREE ZONES FOR THIS AFTN THRU TNGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ644>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 170816 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 316 AM CDT MON OCT 17 2011 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF A KENOSHA TO WISCONSIN DELLS LINE. THE CULPRIT IS THE PERSISTENT STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA STRETCHING ITS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THE AIR TODAY IS VERY DRY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT EASILY THIS AFTERNOON... DROPPING TO THE MID 20S MOST PLACES. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBO OF STABILIZING DIURNAL TRENDS AND THE CANADIAN LOW FINALLY WEAKENING AND LIFTING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. A CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A LARGE 500MB TROUGH WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES BY TUE MORNING...AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER INDIANA ON WED. A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS CENTRAL WI ON TUE. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CROSSING OVERHEAD WILL MAKE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS. MODEL SNDGS SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT LAYER OF SATURATION...SO INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUE AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THEN DRIFT INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHEAST IL TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST. 850MB TEMPS AROUND -2C AND MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS AROUND 11C MID LAKE GIVES DELTA-T AROUND 13C...IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. .LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z THU MORNING...DIMINISHING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION... WITH THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN WI LATE THU NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE THIS WEEK TO DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S. PATCHY FROST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EXPECTED...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A SUBTLE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A SFC TROUGH ACROSS WI LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING. MODELS BACKED OFF FOR POPS...AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE IS MEAGER...BUT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ON SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...SO SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN MENTIONED...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN FOR THAT LONG OF A PERIOD. AFTER TEMPS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECT A SLIGHT WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS WIPED OUT WITH MIXING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY DIMINISHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. && .MARINE... THE GALE WARNING FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT HOUSE NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN AREA ONCE THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERLY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY BE MET AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 180829 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. EARLY MORNING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CU/SC TODAY. WEAK SURFACE FRONT WL PUSH THROUGH SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING...USHERING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN THE THICKENING CLOUDS. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SPREADING IN FROM EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK WAVE OVER NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. AN ISOLATED -SHRA MAY SPREAD INTO NRN CWA LATER THIS MRNG FROM THIS FEATURE. A SMALL THREAT LINGERS FOR A BRIEF -SHRA OR PATCHY -DZ THIS AFTN AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE FUNNELS IN FROM THE NORTH. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS OVER TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE NOW EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER GUIDANCE HAD SUGGESTED...RESULTING IN MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHERN WI BEGINNING TONIGHT. INITIAL SURGE OF ENHANCED LIFT ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS INTO SOUTHEAST WI AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE...RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT SPREADING OVER THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER LIFT AFFECTING SEVERAL INLAND TIERS. LAKE INDUCED CAPE EXCEEDS 300 J AS DELTA-T RISES TO 16C. COMBINATION OF FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA OVER THE LAKE ZONES...WITH SCT -SHRA FARTHER INLAND. HELD OFF ON MENTIONING THUNDER AT THIS POINT DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE A BIT WEST OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST OH BY WED EVENING...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE OVERALL SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW. CURRENT MODELS NOW INDICATE SOME OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL PUSH INTO IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE PARTICULARLY WET FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...INCLUDING AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO IN THE EAST. WITH THIS SHIFT IN MODELS...BUMPED POPS UP QUITE A BIT. WAS NOT READY TO GO ALL IN WITH THIS QUITE YET...AS MODELS MAY NOT HAVE SETTLED ON A SOLUTION. IF MODELS KEEP THIS TREND THOUGH...POPS WILL LIKELY BE GOING UP EVEN MORE. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THE APPROACHING STORM IS THE WIND. MODELS SHOWING A PRETTY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER DUE TO RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE TEMPS...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE. COULD SEE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THERE...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER BUT STILL BREEZY WINDS FARTHER INLAND. IF NAM SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY...WIND WOULD BE FAIRLY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS WELL. OTHER MODELS BACK OFF THE WINDS A BIT FROM WEDNESDAY...THOUGH STILL REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY. WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. IF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN ROLL IN A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...OR LINGER A BIT LATER ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH. SHOULD SEE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LOW...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE MORE PROBABLE. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BELOW NORMAL. AFTER THAT...MODELS GENERALLY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AND NONE LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...SO OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGH THIN CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD SUCCUMB TO INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SC/CU AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. CU RULES FAVOR BKN CIGS DVLPNG BUT LINGERING DRY AIR BELOW 3K FEET AND MIXING MAY CAUSE MAINLY VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE LAKE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SHRA DEVELOPING IN THE EAST. && .MARINE...LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING OVER TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FARTHER WEST MOVEMENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS PROGS...RESULTS IN VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THU MRNG BEFORE LOOSENING. THE INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS REACHING THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WED NGT INTO THU. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE REMAINS AROUND 14C. WITH COLD AIR FEEDING INTO THIS STORM SYSTEM...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO REACH LAKE SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE RAMP UP SITUATION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVY GOING INTO AFFECT TONIGHT...RAMPING UP TO GALE WATCH BY WED AFTN. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR 50KT WIND GUSTS REACHING LAKE SURFACE WED NGT INTO EARLY THU. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TODAY...MAY POSSIBLY UPGRADE TO STORM WATCH OR WARNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT LAKESHORE AREA FOR A TIME WED EVE BEFORE BACKING TO THE NORTH LATER WED NGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 282028 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE SFC AS DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN PARTS OF THE EAST. THE LOW LEVELS /BELOW 5K FT/ REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WI MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE TO WARRANT KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AND IN THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK DESPITE COLD MID-LEVELS... DECREASING THREAT OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. DRY LOW LEVELS EXPCD TO PREVENT ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN WI LATER TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER WL NEED TO WATCH STRATUS FIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WL CONFINE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT TO EXTREME LAKESHORE AREAS FROM PORT WASHINGTON SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA. DUE TO SMALL AREA OF CONCERN...WL HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING BUT INCREASING RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN M/CLR CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE AFTN. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. 500MB TROUGH WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING WI SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MOST MODELS HANDLING THE LOW VERY SIMILARLY...BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END LIKELY. WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX AND GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SUN...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN MEASURING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA...WITH PROBABLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR BETTER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE START TIME...HOW EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHEAST WI SUN MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HELP THE AREA FILL IN WITH PRECIP FAIRLY EARLY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO WENT LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARING SKIES. .LONG TERM... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENSUE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TUE. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S BY TUE. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY WED INTO THU...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BUMP THEM UP TO LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT ONE OR TWO FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THIS TREND IN MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID 40S BY THU AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF 500MB TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT SCOOTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT AND FRI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH CONNECTED AND CAUSES A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRING HIGH PRESSURE INTO SOUTHERN WI. WILL LIKELY DROP ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. JUST-BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING IN EASTERN CWA AS SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVELS BLO 5K FT REMAIN DRY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU SO STILL EXPCG VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVE...AND PARCHED LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT STRATUS FROM REFORMING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION DUE TO LATE NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 11C. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE. APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 290220 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 920 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .UPDATE... BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE EAST BY AROUND 11 PM AS MAIN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROF MOVE EAST. SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS. TEMPS DROPPING QUICKLY WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FOG IN LOW SPOTS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO KEEP IT FROM GETTING ANY MORE PREVELANT. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING. A MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ALREADY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STILL VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS BROUGHT EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE SFC AS DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN PARTS OF THE EAST. THE LOW LEVELS /BELOW 5K FT/ REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN WI MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER ENOUGH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH THIS FEATURE TO WARRANT KEEPING LOW POPS IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA AND IN THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY FAIRLY WEAK DESPITE COLD MID-LEVELS... DECREASING THREAT OF GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL. DRY LOW LEVELS EXPCD TO PREVENT ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN WI LATER TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER WL NEED TO WATCH STRATUS FIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WL CONFINE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT TO EXTREME LAKESHORE AREAS FROM PORT WASHINGTON SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE...RACINE AND KENOSHA. DUE TO SMALL AREA OF CONCERN...WL HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING BUT INCREASING RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN M/CLR CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE AFTN. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. 500MB TROUGH WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAX AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING WI SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MOST MODELS HANDLING THE LOW VERY SIMILARLY...BUMPED UP POPS TO HIGH-END LIKELY. WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX AND GOOD Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON SUN...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN MEASURING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA...WITH PROBABLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR BETTER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE START TIME...HOW EARLY SUN MORNING...AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO SOUTHEAST WI SUN MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DECENT 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HELP THE AREA FILL IN WITH PRECIP FAIRLY EARLY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 12Z GFS. THE CLOUDY SKIES AND PRECIP OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN...SO WENT LOWER END OF GUIDANCE. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT...WITH COLDER TEMPS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARING SKIES. LONG TERM... MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. QUIET WEATHER WILL RETURN...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENSUE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TUE. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUE. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S BY TUE. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. A HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY WED INTO THU...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTHERN WI. HIGH-END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL MOST LIKELY BUMP THEM UP TO LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT ONE OR TWO FORECAST ISSUANCES IF THIS TREND IN MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK INTO THE MID 40S BY THU AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF 500MB TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT SCOOTS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THU NIGHT AND FRI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH CONNECTED AND CAUSES A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRING HIGH PRESSURE INTO SOUTHERN WI. WILL LIKELY DROP ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THESE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. JUST-BELOW-SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING IN EASTERN CWA AS SFC TROUGH AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT PUSHES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVELS BLO 5K FT REMAIN DRY AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU SO STILL EXPCG VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. MID CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE WEST DURING THE EVE...AND PARCHED LOW LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT STRATUS FROM REFORMING IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY FOG MENTION DUE TO LATE NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY AIR. MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY REVEALS LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 11C. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE. APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW PRESSURE ON SUNDAY WILL TURN THE WINDS MORE ONSHORE WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DAVIS TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 302128 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 PM CST WED NOV 30 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NEAR THE SURFACE...HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. ONLY CONCERN IS TOWARD MORNING WHEN WINDS ALOFT BACK OFF A BIT. WITH SUCH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...TEMPS COULD LOCALLY DROP A FEW DEGREES QUICKLY IN POCKETS OF CLEARING. OVERALL THOUGH...LOOKS AROUND 10 DEGREES MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MILDEST TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS LIKELY BACK INTO THE LOW 40S. STILL EXPECTING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS SOUNDINGS PRETTY SATURATED FOR A TIME...WITH SOME OK OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A LOT OF SNOW...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO WEST BEND. STILL...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR LIKELY POPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAKENING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS SOUTHERN WI BY 06Z/FRI. HIGHER COLUMN RH WITH PWAT VALUES JUST OVER ONE HALF INCH. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE TO BE USED BY LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION TO RESULT IN AREAS OF MOSTLY -SN OVER SRN WI FOR A FEW HOURS THURSDAY EVE. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE SFC TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 40S...SO AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE THU NGT...WL NEED TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SOME -RA MIXED IN THE WITH THE SNOW. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AROUND 06Z/FRI. HOWEVER...LINGERING COLUMN MOISTURE AND ONSHORE COMPONENT CONTINUES FROM 06Z-12Z AS THE DELTA-T INCREASES TO AROUND 13 DEGREES. DESPITE ONSHORE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING FROM 1 TO 3K FEET...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO POSSIBLY TRIGGER LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 06Z...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKESHORE COUNTIES. DRIER AIR INTRUSION REDUCES THREAT TO FLURRIES/SPRINKLES FARTHER NORTH TOWARD PORT WASH AND SHEBOYGAN. ONSHORE COMPONENT WEAKENS BY 12Z AS LOW LEVELS DRY OUT. DUE TO WEAKER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...FOR NOW. EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT AND CLOUDS IN THE FAR EAST AND CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE WEST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TAPPING INTO WARMER AND MOISTER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THESE INCREASING WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF PHASING OF A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PWAT VALUES OF THREE QUARTERS INCH SPREADS RAPIDLY ACROSS SRN WI ON SAT. THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT MRNG...REDUCING THREAT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. LATEST GFS REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH NAM AND ECMWF IN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMING LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MOSTLY -RA ON SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MIXTURE IN NORTHWEST CWA IN THE MORNING. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE SHOW UP RIGHT AWAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MAINLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECWMF AND GFS BRINGING PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE WESTERN GTLAKES SAT NGT AND SUN. THIS ENERGY WAS KICKED NORTHEAST BY REINTENSIFICATION OF CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS ON SAT. IN ADDITION...SECONDARY CLOSED LOW SIMULTANEOUSLY SETTLES INTO NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA AREA AT THE SAME TIME. BOTH SYSTEMS RESULT IN INCREASING S-SW FLOW OVER CENTRAL CONUS WHICH IS ABLE TO PULL WARMER...MOIST CONDITIONS NWD INTO SRN WI. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WL LEAN MORE ON ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH TREND TOWARD FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SAT NGT AND EARLY SUN WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS. WITH MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...LOW LEVELS COOL OFF MORE RAPIDLY SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN RESULTING IN QUICKER CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN. GFS SOLUTION WOULD HOLD OFF ON CHANGEOVER UNTIL SUN. HOWEVER...DESPITE FAVORING QUICKER CHANGEOVER...THINKING QPF AND RESULTANT SNOWFALL WOULD BE LIGHTER DUE TO FASTER SOLUTION AND STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING REMAINING NORTH AND SOUTH OF SRN WI. COLD AIR FUNNELS INTO SRN WI BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH 85H TEMPS FALLING TO -6 TO -8C. BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY REDUCES PRECIP THREAT. -SN/-SHSN THREAT INCREASES AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS NORTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH WRN GTLAKES. ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO FEED LIGHT SNOW. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOWING REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE. THIS UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT BUT TIMING MAY BE SLOWED DUE TO EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OVER NORTHEAST CONUS. THE COLDER CONDITIONS REMAIN ANCHORED OVER WI ON TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATION EXPECTED ON WED AHEAD OF NEXT WEAKER SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WED NGT OR THU. LATEST GFS 5H ANOMOLY 5DAY MEANS SHOW INCREASINGLY COLD PATTERN SETTING UP OVER WRN GTLAKES THROUGH FIRST 1.5 WEEKS OF DEC. LARGE POSITIVE ANOMOLIES EXPECTED TO FORM IN BOTH WRN ATLANTIC AND NRN PACIFIC WITH NEGATIVE ANOMOLY AND BROADSCALE TROFFING SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY POSSIBLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A TIME. ONSET OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE DELLS TO FOND DU LAC...THEN LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM LONE ROCK TO MILWAUKEE AND SOUTH. TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY UP TO ONE HALF INCH. && CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THURSDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM. .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 100929 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM TONIGHT. FOCUS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY ACROSS WRN GTLAKES. 85H TEMPS WARM OVER 10C TODAY...STARTING OUT THIS MRNG AROUND -14. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARCHED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.1 AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONGEST PUSH OF WAA OVER NRN WI. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABV 10K FT. IR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NRN MN...MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. AREA OF LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SFC AROUND 600MB PUSHES THRU SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HENCE EXPC AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MRNG...WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTN. CLOUDS WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN CHECK DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN TONIGHT. SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRYING TO INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING VCNTY OF UPSTREAM SNOWFIELD THIS EVENING AND ADVECTING INTO SRN WI LATE TNGT. SOME MELTING WL TAKE PLACE OVER NE SNOWFIELD...BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECTING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. WL CONTINUE WITH M/CLR WORDING FOR TNGT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS LIKELY TO DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT THEN SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COAST WILL BRING WELCOMED WARMER TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. 925MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +4C...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT BE MIXING THAT HIGH TO REACH THAT HIGHER TEMP POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MORNING STRATUS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO LEAVING IT OUT OF FCST AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...SO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25MPH AT TIMES SUN AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE WEST EARLY MON MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT INVERSION SUN NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAIN SUN NIGHT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI LATE SUN NIGHT...AND THE PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON MON. ECMWF SPREADS THE QPF ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS AND NAM KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST DRY. ALL MODELS AGREE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...FCST SNDGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MOIST LAYER SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON MON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MOIST LAYER BARELY REACHES INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...MEANING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA RATHER THAN SNOW. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL WI...SO SAUK/MARQUETTE/GREEN LAKE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW RATHER THAN JUST DRIZZLE. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUESTIONABLE MON NIGHT...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS LOOK DRIER SO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...THUS THE UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE. .LONG TERM... TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. LIGHT PRECIP COULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S...SO VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY TUE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL PUSH AN 850MB WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT. THEN SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND CROSS IOWA/WI OR ILLINOIS WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS TOOK LOW ACROSS CHICAGO...A MUCH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND AN OUTLIER FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. THEREFORE...TRENDED FCST TOWARD THE WARMER...NORTHERLY...MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TUE NIGHT...THEN TURN TO ALL RAIN ON WED AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WED EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MAIN LOW PRESSURE BY LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ANY LINGERING RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO AFFECT SRN WI FOR A TIME TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPCD INTO THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL AREA OF LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY PATCHY STRATUS OVER SRN NE OVER DEEPER SNOWCOVER. AT THIS POINT...WL LEAVE ST OUT OF TAFS AS EXPC LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO ERODE INITIAL PUSH OF HIGHER SFC RH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY AFTN SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP REMAINS A MILD 6-7C. THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE. SHIP REPORTS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF 20-25KTS SINCE FRI EVE. DELTA-T CURRENTLY AROUND 20C DROPS TO 14C BY 00Z...AND CONTINUES TO DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN LAKE MI EXPCD LATER TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO S CENTRAL CAN. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW FETCH LENGTH WL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOWER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 101812 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1212 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011 .UPDATE...TWO AREAS OF CLOUDS PUSHING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ONE AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PUSHING SOUTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER LOW CLOUD AREA WITHIN WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTING EAST. NORTHERN CLOUD LAYER SOMEWHAT THIN...BUT STILL BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. SOME MIXING OF THESE CLOUD LAYERS POSSIBLE AS THEY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING...THOUGH MIXING IS QUITE SHALLOW. WILL ADJUST SKY FORECAST TO TIME THESE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT CLIMB OF TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH CLOUD DECK FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXING OUT OF THIS DECK AT TIMES. HOWEVER...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THINK BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY FOR A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BROKEN VFR CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO CLIP TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET AS WELL. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. IF CURRENT MVFR DECK DOES NOT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNSET...THIS AREA COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. NOT CONFIDENT IN THESE SCENARIOS HAPPENING YET...SO LEFT TAFS VFR FOR TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET CORE STAYS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STILL...WINDS AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY REACH UP TO 40 KNOTS. THIS WOULD BE BORDERLINE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS OCCURRING AT THIS LEVEL. CLEAR SKIES RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL COMBINE WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE TO HELP BRING FREQUENT SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUSTS WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET...MAINLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WAVES REMAIN HIGH TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TODAY. MEDIUM TONIGHT. FOCUS TODAY AND TONIGHT ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY ACROSS WRN GTLAKES. 85H TEMPS WARM OVER 10C TODAY...STARTING OUT THIS MRNG AROUND -14. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PARCHED WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.1 AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. STRONGEST PUSH OF WAA OVER NRN WI. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABV 10K FT. IR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER NRN MN...MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. AREA OF LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SFC AROUND 600MB PUSHES THRU SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HENCE EXPC AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THIS MRNG...WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTN. CLOUDS WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN CHECK DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN TONIGHT. SOME SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRYING TO INDICATE POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPING VCNTY OF UPSTREAM SNOWFIELD THIS EVENING AND ADVECTING INTO SRN WI LATE TNGT. SOME MELTING WL TAKE PLACE OVER NE SNOWFIELD...BUT AT THIS POINT EXPECTING INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL RH TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. WL CONTINUE WITH M/CLR WORDING FOR TNGT. LOW LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPS LIKELY TO DROP OFF A FEW DEGREES IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT THEN SHOULD LEVEL OFF AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST COAST WILL BRING WELCOMED WARMER TEMPS TO SOUTHERN WI. 925MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE TO +4C...ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT BE MIXING THAT HIGH TO REACH THAT HIGHER TEMP POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MORNING STRATUS...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO LEAVING IT OUT OF FCST AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...SO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25MPH AT TIMES SUN AFTERNOON. A FEW CLOUDS MAY BUILD INTO THE WEST EARLY MON MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT INVERSION SUN NIGHT...SO MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAIN SUN NIGHT COULD BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI LATE SUN NIGHT...AND THE PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI ON MON. ECMWF SPREADS THE QPF ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE GFS AND NAM KEEPING THE SOUTHEAST DRY. ALL MODELS AGREE LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...FCST SNDGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP MOIST LAYER SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON MON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MOIST LAYER BARELY REACHES INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...MEANING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGER THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA RATHER THAN SNOW. SNOW IS MORE POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL WI...SO SAUK/MARQUETTE/GREEN LAKE/COLUMBIA COUNTIES HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW RATHER THAN JUST DRIZZLE. PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUESTIONABLE MON NIGHT...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS LOOK DRIER SO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK...THUS THE UNCERTAINTY IN PTYPE. LONG TERM... TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. LIGHT PRECIP COULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S...SO VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY TUE NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL PUSH AN 850MB WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT. THEN SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND CROSS IOWA/WI OR ILLINOIS WED NIGHT. 00Z GFS TOOK LOW ACROSS CHICAGO...A MUCH MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND AN OUTLIER FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. THEREFORE...TRENDED FCST TOWARD THE WARMER...NORTHERLY...MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE TUE NIGHT...THEN TURN TO ALL RAIN ON WED AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WED EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL RAIN WITH THE NEXT BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MAIN LOW PRESSURE BY LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLD AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION ANY LINGERING RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW CHANCES BY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY TO AFFECT SRN WI FOR A TIME TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPCD INTO THIS EVENING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT POTENTIAL AREA OF LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY PATCHY STRATUS OVER SRN NE OVER DEEPER SNOWCOVER. AT THIS POINT...WL LEAVE ST OUT OF TAFS AS EXPC LOW LEVEL MIXING OF DRIER AIR TO ERODE INITIAL PUSH OF HIGHER SFC RH...BUT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY AFTN SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP REMAINS A MILD 6-7C. THESE WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE TO CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE. SHIP REPORTS FROM THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF 20-25KTS SINCE FRI EVE. DELTA-T CURRENTLY AROUND 20C DROPS TO 14C BY 00Z...AND CONTINUES TO DECREASE TONIGHT. HOWEVER TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SRN LAKE MI EXPCD LATER TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO S CENTRAL CAN. AS A RESULT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LINGERING INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS AND LOW FETCH LENGTH WL KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS LOWER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 092358 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 558 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012 .UPDATE...NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVY UNTIL 02Z. CHII2 GUSTING TO 37KTS WHICH LIES AT THE EDGE OF THE NEARSHORE ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE ANEMOMETER IS AROUND 60FT OFF THE LAKE SURFACE...THINK SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS STILL MAY OCCUR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMP AROUND 5C 3-5 MILES FROM SHORE. LINGERING STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON JAN 9 2012/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AS LOW PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION MOVES AWAY. THUS...THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY SUNSET...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS...BUT LEFT OUT OF FORECAST DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S NEAR THE LAKE SEEM REASONABLE...THOUGH IT COULD BE A BIT COOLER IN LOW LYING AREAS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION BOOSTING 925MB TEMPERATURES TO 4 TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG WITH MO SUNNY SKIES. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A LARGE POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE NT AND WED WHILE THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SEWD FROM MANITOBA CANADA TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON AND MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE IT WILL BE AN ANAFRONT...SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP PROVIDE ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR WED...LOWER 50S ARE FORECAST IN SE WI. BRISK NWLY WINDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL WED NT INTO THU. A WEAK NARROW BAND OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AFTER FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LGT SNOW...MAINLY WED NT WITH BEST CHANCES IN ERN WI. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THU. LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM THE LARGE POLAR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NEWD ON FRI WITH DECREASING NW WINDS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL ALBERTA CLIPPER FOR SAT...BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY WEAK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LGT SNOW CURRENTLY ONLY FORECAST OVER EAST CENTRAL WI. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE JET STREAM WILL RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS TAF SITES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS GRAZING THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS OR SO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF VFR TO BORDERLINE MVFR FOG AT MADISON AND KENOSHA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE WITHIN DRY AIRMASS. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING OF WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING FREQUENT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE BORDERLINE AT BEST...SO LEFT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT 00Z TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON WEDNESDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITHIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 110335 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 935 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012 .UPDATE...WL NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS MOST LOCATIONS AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO PLUMMET EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE FROST THAN FOG BUT WL ADD FOG MENTION INTO WI RVR VALLEY. 00Z NAM CONTINUES SLIGHT SWD TREND OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LOWER MI THU AFTN AND NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTIER WINDS OVER SRN WI DURING THIS PD. HEADLINES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED EARLY WED. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...PATCHY LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW THE SFC DEWPT. OTRW...EXPC VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WL NEED TO BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCD WITH -SN INTO KMSN AFT 06Z/12...AND INTO KMKE AFT 14Z/12 AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL GTLAKES. && .MARINE...00Z NAM CONTINUES TREND OF INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH OF LOWER MI THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT RESULTING IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MI INTO FRI. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS MAY REACH GALE WARNING LEVELS THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MODIS IMAGES FROM TODAY SHOW LAKE SFC TEMPS STILL AROUND 5-6C FROM THE EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TO MID-LAKE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WED MORNING BEFORE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE LOW REACH SOUTHERN WI WED AFTERNOON. TRIED TO CUT BACK IN FCST CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY... SINCE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY FEW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM UPSTREAM. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WILL COME A SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH RADIATIVE COOLING. WENT WITH CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE...ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...SINCE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS HAVE DECOUPLED AND HAD MIN TEMPS LOWER THAN EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AGAIN WED MORNING. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT AND SFC COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON WED...WITH THE GFS QUICKEST...MAKING IT INTO OUR NW FORECAST AREA AROUND 18Z... AND THE ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN REACHING THE NW FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z. WENT WITH COMPROMISE. EITHER WAY...THE MUCH COLDER AIR WITH THE PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE LEADING 500MB VORT MAX AND FRONTOGENESIS GETS IN HERE WED NIGHT. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE ONLY SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THEY WERE TODAY...RANGING FROM MID 40S IN NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA TO AROUND 50 IN MILWAUKEE/KENOSHA. VERY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE COLL BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW AND THE OTHER SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT WINDS WITH THE WARMER AIR TEMPS AND COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP WED AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS TOO QUICKLY...THE FCST MAX TEMPS ARE TOO HIGH. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE DYNAMIC AND SNOWY SYSTEM FOR LATE WED NT THROUGH THU NT. A LARGE DIGGING POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO A LINE EXTENDING FROM MN TO OK BY 12Z THU. THE POLAR TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NEWD...BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT AND CLOSED OFF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS IL/IN TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI. THE ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A CONSENSUS OF MODELS PLACING THE LOW OVER LAKE HURON BY 00Z FRI. COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR WED NT WITH 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND PVA TO FOLLOW LATE WED NT INTO THU NT. THERE ALSO WILL BE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE COLD ADVECTION INCREASES. OVERALL...OMEGA AND LIFT IS CATEGORIZED AS MODERATE. THIS IS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM AND A CONSENSUS OF QPF GIVES AROUND 0.30 INCHES IN THE FAR WRN CWA TO 0.40 INCHES IN THE EAST AND NORTH. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES...COBB TECHNIQUE...AND ROEBBERS NEURAL NETWORK ALL GIVE LIGHT SNOW RATIOS EVEN WITH 15 KT SFC WINDS...AS TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS BECOME VERY COLD. THIS YIELDS 5-6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 30 HOUR PERIOD. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND FOR DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING SNOW BUT WIND GUSTS ARE TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THIS SNOW EVENT. A WORST CASE SCENARIO IS IF THE NAM IS CORRECT IN PLACING THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN OR IN WRN LOWER MI. WINDS WOULD THEN GUST TO NEARLY 30 KTS OR MORE AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. THIS HOWEVER IS AN OUTLIER FOR NOW. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FOR FRI WITH VERY LGT SNOW POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOW PROJECTED TO TRACK SEWD ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY FOR SAT. THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CHANGE BUT IT CURRENTLY IS TOO WEAK TO FORECAST SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR SAT NT INTO SUN AM. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL THEN ENSUE SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON WITH A RETURN OF NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LGT SNOW MON NT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FOR TUE WITH A RETURN OF COLD TEMPS. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. A LAKE BREEZE IS POSSIBLE WED AFTERNOON AT MKE AND MAYBE EVEN ENW. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI BEGINNING WED EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM MANITOBA. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEE THE TOP NEWS OF THE DAY STORY ON OUR WEBSITE FOR A BREAK-DOWN IN SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING. MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY... THEN INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 300335 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 935 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2012 .UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW FROM BURST OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MN. STRENGTH OF FORCING OVERWHELMING DRY LOW LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SWEEPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FWF IN THE LOW LEVELS SWEEPS THROUGH SRN WI WITH THE WAA. AT THIS TIME...THINKING STRONGEST FORCING ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL WI WL BE ABLE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...UP TO AN INCH. CENTRAL AREAS FROM MADISON TO MILWAUKEE WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF -SN BUT SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS MUCH LESS...HENCE WL CONTINUE CHANCE WORDING FOR THESE AREAS. LIGHT SNOW THREAT PUSHES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH WAA BY 18Z. STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PD OF -ZL AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SRN WI MONDAY MRNG. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...THICKENING CLOUDS WL OCCUR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6K FT. BRIEF BURST OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE TNGT AND MONDAY MRNG. POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN OR -ZL COULD AFFECT TAF SITES WITH CIGS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z MONDAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG. && .MARINE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE AROUND 2C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS MONDAY MORNING SHOW A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 2K FEET...HOWEVER WINDS BELOW THE INVERSION STRENGTH TO AROUND 25 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO BRIEF NATURE OF STRONGER WINDS...WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVY AT THIS TIME...AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT TIMING. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MI LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 082124 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 PM CST WED FEB 8 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OR CLOUDS. DRY AIR IN THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY SEEP INTO SOUTHERN WI LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BY OUT OF THE WEST TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TO SOUTHERN WI BY LATE THU MORNING. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS/23 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THU AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WE COULD STILL RADIATE OUT FAIRLY WELL TONIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING MAX TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 37 NEAR THE LAKESHORE. THOUGH TEMPS MAY FEEL A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO THE WIND. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING VIGOROUS CDFNT NOW ADVANCING INTO SRN CANADA...FM 06Z-13Z FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SCT -SHSN OVER SRN WI INTO THE EARLY AFTN BFR DIMINISHING. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY STRONG DOWNWARD OMEGA ASSOCD WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. HENCE WL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS LIGHT...LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF-NAM ALONG WITH THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT ENHANCED FORCING OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS FRIDAY MRNG...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN. LAKE SNOW PARAMETER REACHS 1-2 UNITS ON FRIDAY INDICATING MDT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. NEW MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE MI SEA SFC TEMP AROUND 3.5C. THIS RESULTS IN THE DELTA-T INCREASING TO AROUND 17 DEGREES ON FRIDAY AS 85H TEMPS PLUMMET TO BTWN 10 AND 18C BLO ZERO. 850-700H RH INITIALLY AROUND 90 PERCENT DECREASES TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTN WITH THE INVERSION HEIGHT ABV 6K FT. LAKE INDUCED CAPE OVER 200 J/KG. HWVR SEVERAL NEGATIVES FOR PRODUCING AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND INCLUDED BEST FETCH REMAINING 010-020 DEGREES AND FLUCTUATING WIND DIRECTION IN THE 1000-850H LEVEL. WINDS TURN TO 010-020 DEGREES BY 15Z FRIDAY...BUT THEN BACK TO 360 DEGREES BY THE EARLY AFTN. HENCE THIS FETCH WOULD FAVOR THE AREA FROM MILWAUKEE COUNTY SOUTH TO THE IL BORDER FOR A PERIOD OF -SHSN ENHANCED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE. GFS MEANWHILE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH LAKE EFFECT THREAT WITH WINDS REMAINING MORE NLY FRI AND FRI NGT. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT BTWN LAKE EFFECT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPCD FOR A TIME ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW WL KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH BY THE LAKE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE CLOSE TO THE LAKE INTO FRI NGT DUE TO THE LINGERING N WINDS...BUT REMOVE THE THREAT ON SAT AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST. COLD AIR REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SRN WI ON SATURDAY...BUT LACK OF SNOW COVER AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ON SAT. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. APPEARS A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WL TAKE PLACE LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT FIRST...QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER SRN WI THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPS WL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL ON SUNDAY. LARGE RIDGE WL CONTINUE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTED FROM NRN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH ADVANCE ACROSS WRN CONUS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN BRINGING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GTLAKES MON NGT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE PWAT VALUES TO OVER 0.5 INCH. FOR NOW WL BUMP UP POPS TO BETTER CHANCE VALUES FOR -SN WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW. ABOVE SHORT WAVE WL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF WI BY TUESDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION. WHILE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH MONDAY NIGHT SHORT WAVE...THEY RAPIDLY DIVERGE BY MID-WEEK AS EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF NEXT STRONGER SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO ADVANCE INTO THE SRN PLAINS TUE AND WED. MILDER AIR WL SETTLE OVER SRN WI BY MID-WEEK...SO THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE TIME PRECIP CHANCES RETURN ON WED. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THU WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS WI. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .MARINE... INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WOULD CREATE HIGH WAVES FRIDAY...LASTING INTO SATURDAY. && .CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY...LOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 180907 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 307 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH FLURRIES ASSOCD WITH INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC FRONT SHOULD END EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAVE PUSHED TO THE EAST OF KSBM CWA AS WELL. APPEARS NAM OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING RIDGING AND SHORT WAVE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...WL CONTINUE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING WITH FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN MOST AREAS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF SNOW COVER SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE MID 30S MOST AREAS DESPITE NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THERMAL TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EAST. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S MOST AREAS. AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETS UP TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE SOME LAKE CLOUDS TO PUSH ASHORE FROM KMKE SOUTH TO KENW AFT MIDNIGHT TNGT. NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO EXPC FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. .SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED SUNDAY...MAY SEE LAKE CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHEAST...PARTICULARLY IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH MID 30S ANTICIPATED. .MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE...WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST. INCREASED POPS JUST A BIT MORE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH ENOUGH OVERLAP IN MODEL TIMING OF THE LOW. OVERALL THOUGH...MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH VARYING TIMING AND TRACKS OF THE LOW. THUS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS THAT MUCH FOR NOW. ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER IN THE NAM SOUNDINGS AND SOMEWHAT IN GFS SOUNDINGS TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SLEET TO GO WITH SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TUESDAY. WITH SUNSHINE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING MONDAY...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING...WILL LIKELY SEE EVEN MILDER TEMPS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM A PAIR OF SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SIZABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW WED/THU AND SNOW FRI. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH FLURRIES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND CDFNT EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD RAPIDLY THIN AND PUSH TO THE EAST LEAVING VFR FOR MOST OF THE TAF PD. SOME CU MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...BUT COUNTING ON STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP CU MVFR AND SCT-BKN. HENCE WL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WRT SKY CONDITIONS WITH 12Z ISSUANCE. MVFR LAKE CLOUDS MAY AFFECT ERN TAF SITES AFT MID TNGT. && .MARINE...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MRNG. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TURNED TO THE NORTH UPON FROPA AND INCREASED TO 10 TO 20KTS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LAKE TEMPS AROUND 4C SO ESTIMATE NEARSHORE LAKE TEMPS AROUND 1-2C. ENOUGH STEEPNESS TO THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS TO 22-25 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z...BUT NOT EXPCD TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVY. NORTH WINDS WL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE WRN GTLAKES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 200941 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 341 AM CST MON FEB 20 2012 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH A BIT MORE WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LOWER MI AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO THRU KS BY 00Z/TUE. QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE LOW SPREADING NORTH AND EAST IN THE INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. FORTUNATELY THE MID-LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN WARM TO ABV NORMAL BY MID-AFTN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE LAKE WL KEEP LAKESHORE LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AS LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY 36 TO 39 DEGREES. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO FAR WRN WI AND ERN IA BY 12Z/TUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 06Z TO AROUND 0.5 INCH DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO 40-50KTS AHEAD OF TROUGH. RAPID LOWERING OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO LESS THAN 10MB WITH 15 TO 25KT UPGLIDE ON 290 THETA SFC. DESPITE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOT BEING ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON CARRYING PERIOD OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCD WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF 3H JET ACROSS SRN WI BTWN 06Z AND 15Z/TUE. THERMODYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS AIR MASS MOISTENS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN WI. ALL TECHNIQUES INCLUDING ROEBBER AND COBB FAVOR AROUND A 12-13 TO 1 SLR. HEAVIEST QPF OVER 0.10 LIKELY TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST SO SNOW AMOUNTS COULD REACH 2 INCHES IN THIS AREA BY 12Z. WL BUMP UP POPS MOST LOCATIONS. NOT SEEING MUCH FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FWF SO WL KEEP QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE VALUES. .TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH CURRENT MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SRN WI AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WENT WITH HIGH EARLY MORNING POPS...BUT TAPERED THEM OFF TO MAINLY CHANCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE MID LEVELS. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL SATURATION TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF MADISON. BETWEEN THE DRIER AIR POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT...WAA ALOFT...AND A MILD SW FLOW AT THE SFC...WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH...OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...ABOVE MENTIONED TEMPERATURE SETUP SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO SNEAK BACK TO AROUND 40. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT NEW SNOW WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 40S...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW 30S...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE SNOW TO MELT AFTER IT STOPS SNOWING. LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF SUNSHINE...SO DID NOT GO WITH WARMEST GUIDANCE. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM STILL A BIT OF A MESS MID WEEK WITH MODEL AGREEMENT AND GENERAL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. OVERALL PICTURE IS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE SECOND ONE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST. BIG ISSUES WITH WHERE MODELS DEVELOP THE SFC FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. HARD TO PIN DOWN A LOT OF THE DETAILS...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE CONTINUED MILD PATTERN...SO WENT WITH CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WENT WITH CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH RIGHT OVERHEAD...THEN DRY SATURDAY. .SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS A SFC LOW THROUGH SUNDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF ON THE LOW UNTIL MONDAY...PUSHING IT THROUGH NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBVIOUS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPES...SO JUST WENT WITH CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CLEAR. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERSPREAD SRN WI AFT 06Z TNGT. WINDS TNGT WL EXCEED 40KTS AT 2K FEET SO WL INTRODUCE LLWS REMARK. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER LWR MI PUSHES FARTHER TO THE EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WNDS WL ALLOW GUSTS TO 25 KTS TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP 2-4C FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO MID-LAKE. WL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT TO EXPIRE TUE MRNG...BUT MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RETIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE BEHIND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS LAKE MI TUE MRNG RESULTING IN THE TEMPORARY LULL IN WIND SPEEDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 142041 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 340 PM CST WED MAR 14 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...AND THURSDAY MAX TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMED INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN IOWA. THE STRATUS IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR WESTERN WI STAYED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...PROVING THAT WE WERE UNDER A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER...AROUND 3500 TO 4000 FEET AGL. THE CU ARE VERY SHALLOW DUE TO THE CAP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. THE HRRR AND SPC 4 KM WRF NMM SHOW A FEW SHOWERS BREAKING OUT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE OVER 1000 J/KG...KEPT WITH THE TSTORM THINKING. HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW. THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND NO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE NEXT CHALLENGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE PERSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DENSE FOG. GIVEN DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON /CROSSOVER TEMPS/ AND FORECAST TEMPS TO COOL LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH/WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT COMES OVERHEAD...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICTURE THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SO DRY AND TEMPS ARE SO WARM TODAY THAT THEY MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG IN FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MID THU MORNING. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS QUICKER WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE NAM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS COLD FRONT SCENARIO PAINTS A DREARY PICTURE FOR MILWAUKEE ON THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR A TIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKE. LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS WERE BETWEEN 37 AND 40 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT PER MODIS IMAGERY YESTERDAY EVENING. UNCERTAIN HOW FAR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON THU. THE CANADIAN BRINGS IT ALL THE WAY TO MSN AND THE NAM DOES NOT. TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WL CONTINUE TO LEAN MORE ON HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGED FARTHER SOUTH DEEPER INTO NRN IL AT START OF PERIOD. WITH MOIST LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW INVERSION EXPCD TO CONTINUE...WL CARRY FOG MENTION THRU THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONFINE TO THE EAST...CLOSER TO COOL LAKE MI ON FRI. MAY BE UNDERDOING AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BUT CONCERNED ABOUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH THU NGT INTO FRI. DEWPTS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NRN PLAINS. FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AS BOUNDARY LAYER GETS BETTER MIXED FRIDAY MRNG. FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. CAPPING DOES DECREASE FRI AFTN BUT LACK OF ANY TRIGGER PRECLUDES ADDING ANY POPS FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE APPEARS FRI NIGHT AS MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES ALONG WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE. COINCIDENTALLY... WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAUGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES THRU SRN WI. WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE BRUSHES SRN WI AS WELL...SO ENUF EVIDENCE TO WARRENT ADDING SCHC POPS FRI NGT...CARRYING INTO SAT. BULK OF SAT SHOULD BE DRY HOWEVER AS WK FORCING WL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY. SAT EXPCD TO BE WARMER MOST LOCATIONS WITH BETTER SLY SFC WINDS. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS PERIOD. APPEARS AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM LONG-WAVE TROFFING WL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULTING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF SRN WI FOR THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD. RIGHT THROUGH 00Z/22...GFS 500H 5 DAY MEAN HEIGHTS REMAIN 100 TO 200 METERS ABV NORMAL ACRS SRN WI. HOWEVER...GFS DIVERGING FROM OTHER LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN MID-WEEK WITH UPSTREAM PIECE OF ENERGY DIGGING INTO BACK SIDE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN LONG WAVE TROUGH EDGING SLOWLY EWD THRU CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SFC FRONT MOVING THRU AREA LATE TUE NGT AND WED. MEANWHILE...LAST SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PERSISTENT BLOCKING HIGH OVER ERN CONUS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-WEEK...PREVENTING EWD PROGRESSION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...GFS TRENDING TOWARD CUT-OFF UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WOULD EVENTUALLY GET NUDGED NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK BY UPSTREAM KICKER PUSHING TOWARD WEST COAST WED NGT AND THU. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING CUTOFF LOW...BUT SEVERAL MEMBERS LEAN TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HPC LEANING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION...WHICH WOULD BE REASONABLE CONSIDERING BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE WL BE LOWEST IN THE LATE PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD HIGHS INLAND...WHILE LAKE MICHIGAN KEEPS LAKESHORE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COOLER. LATEST MODIS IMAGES SHOW LAKE MI LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE REMAINING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ANOMOLIES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. IN THE EARLIER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...WL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR THUNDER SAT NGT INTO SUN AS PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WARM MID-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADS SRN WI AFTER THIS DISTURBANCE. CAPPING INVERSION PREVENTS ANY SIGNIFICANT PRPN THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/... ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM EXISTS THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP THE TAF FORECASTS DRY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AND WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE SOME FOG POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFR FOG OR IFR CEILINGS. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG POTENTIAL...BUT IT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD ENOUGH CHANCE TO PUT INTO TAFS. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING DENSE FOG IN A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN MID THU MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH THE FRONT...THEN REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS COLD FRONT SCENARIO PAINTS A DREARY PICTURE FOR MILWAUKEE ON THURSDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOR A TIME AND COOL TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAKE. && .MARINE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT THEN A NORTHEAST FLOW AND LAKE COOLING EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS MOIST AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. && .CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LOW. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 210239 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 939 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012 .UPDATE...EXPECT UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THINNING AS THEY PUSH EAST INTO BETTER RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...AND WITH DECOUPLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS SRN WI. WL LOWER TEMPS IN SOME NRN AND ERN LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES. ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS ON TUESDAY AS DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUH 850H ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN ALLOWING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS...DESPITE PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS. MORE RECORDS LIKELY TO TUMBLE ON WED. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPCD DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THIS TAF PD. LOW LEVEL MIXING WL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS LATER WED MRNG AND AFTN ONCE AGAIN. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 18Z/20 SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMP HAS WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT TO MID-LAKE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHEAST PREVENTING FOG FORMATION DESPITE SOUTHEAST WINDS. LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXPCD TO ONCE AGAIN PREVENT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOUND JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE DUE TO MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL MIXING. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AFTN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RESULTED IN DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SFC. DEWPTS TUMBLED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S DURING THE AFTN AT SOME LOCATIONS RESULTING IN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT. ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPTS FROM THE CENTRAL GTLAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY FOR WED. HENCE NOT EXPCNG AS LOW RH WED AFTN...BUT MAY DROP AS LOW AS 30 TO 35 PERCENT. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT FOR RAWS SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 40 ON WED SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHED...BUT NOT REACHED AT THIS TIME. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 070235 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 935 PM CDT FRI APR 6 2012 .UPDATE...NEEDED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN SOME EASTERN SITES. WITH DRY DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN THOSE AREAS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S LATE TONIGHT...THINK FROST POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND WL BE CONFINED TO LOW AREAS. HENCE CHANGED AREAS OF FROST WORDING TO PATCHY. EXPECT ISOBARS TO BE ALIGNED 30 DEGREES OR LESS WITH THE LAKE MI SHORE ON SAT. MODIS IMAGERY FROM 18Z FRIDAY SHOWS LAKE SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. HENCE EXPECTED THERMAL GRADIENT AND BAGGIER PRESSURE GRADIENT...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HENCE WL NEED TO REEVALUATE WHETHER LAKESHORE MAX TEMPS FOR SAT NEED TO BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY WITH NEW FORECAST. OTRW NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SCT -SHRA WILL AFFECT TAF SITES SAT AFTN...BUT CIGS WL REMAIN VFR. MAY BE A BRIEF PD OF SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND CDFNT LATE SUN AFTN AND/OR EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 100831 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 331 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM....TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING WEAK FORCING FROM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN CAUSED MID CLOUDS TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC CARRIES THIS WEAK WAVE ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SECOND WEAK WAVE OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL MN WHICH MOVES ON A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING BOTH OF THESE WAVES. WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...AND LINGERING THERMAL TROF...EXPECTING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN OVER ERN CWA...WITH MORE OF A BALANCE IN THE WEST. FOR NOW WL HOLD OFF ON M/CLDY WORDING AS EXPECTING SEVERAL PERIODS OF AT LEAST P/SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY. WL DROP DODGE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES FROM FREEZE WARNING EARLY THIS MRNG AS BKN-OVC SHOULD LINGER IN THESE AREAS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. WITH KBUU AND KJVL IN THE LOW 30S...WL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNING IN WALWORTH COUNTY AND POINTS WEST UNTIL 14Z. CLOUDS AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL ONLY ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM PASSING LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI BUT SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAY HANG ON IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CANADA. ALSO...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS WITH THE DELTA-T AROUND 12C. HENCE WITH CLEARING IN THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS...TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLOUDS AND TEMPS FALLING TO 28F OR LOWER LATER TONIGHT...HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKE. ALSO...REMOVED FROST WORDING TONIGHT DUE TO TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAINING HIGH. .SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE FOCUS AS CURRENT RELATIVELY COLD TREND CONTINUES WITH WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EASTERN TROUGH AND PLAINS RIDGE. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT 925MB TEMPERATURES MODIFY A BIT UPWARD WITH DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO THAT LEVEL BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND...WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LAKE STRATOCUMULUS HOLDING READINGS IN THE 40S. WEAK...SHEARED VORTICITY ON PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW SOUTH AND WEST OF STATE SHIFTS BACK EAST ACROSS STATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AN OUTLIER...BRINGING A STRONG VORT SOUTHEAST FROM NWRN MN...REACHING SW WI/NW IL AROUND 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER COLUMN REMAINS DRY ON ECMWF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO NO POP...AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES TO ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS. WILL HAVE PATCHY FROST...AND AREAS OF FROST WHERE LOW TEMPS FALL BELOW 30F. THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THURSDAY AS 850-700 MB RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST. SURFACE HIGH ALSO CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES BY 00Z FRIDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON WEST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ALL DAY IN THE EAST. BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WEST...WITH LOW TO MID 50S EAST. NAM AND GFS BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WILL TIME PRECIPITATION ACROSS CWA WITH BEST ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. LOWS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z FRIDAY...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY WARM WITH WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A WET END OF THE WEEK/BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EJECT FROM WESTERN TROUGH. SOME PLACEMENT/TIMING DIFFERENCES WHICH MAY IMPACT TEMPERATURES AND STORM MODE...BUT CONSENSUS BLEND BRINGS SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH WAA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY... BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE...TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH BEHIND WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAINLY DRY MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SECONDARY WAVE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...PERIODS OF MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS EXPCD TODAY AND MOSTLY ERN AREAS TONIGHT. SCT CLOUDS MAY APPROACH 3K FEET FOR A TIME TODAY AND IN THE EAST TNGT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NLY. ANOTHER GUSTY DAY ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST SEVERAL DAYS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. && .MARINE...COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM 17Z/09 MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS 4-5C AWAY FROM THE SHALLOWER NEARSHORE WATERS...CONFIRMED BY SOUTH LAKE BUOY TEMP. RESULTANT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE AS WELL AS OVER THE LAKESHORE AREAS...WILL ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVE. WL EXTEND ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVE TO ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING GUSTINESS. WINDS WL REMAIN GUSTY TNGT...BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW ADVY CRITERIA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-056- 057-062-063-067>070. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...REM  FXUS63 KMKX 130830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT FRI APR 13 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. PULLED TRIGGER ON DENSE FOG ADVY FOR SHEBOYGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. EVENING CLEARING ALLOWED TEMPS TO RAPIDLY COOL IN THESE AREAS TO DEWPTS. COLD SFC TEMPS AMPLIFIED LOW LEVEL INVERSION WHICH SHOULD PREVENT INCREASING WINDS DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO AFFECT SFC IN THESE AREAS UNTIL AFT SUNRISE. DOT WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG IS SPREADING IN HIGHWAY 43 AREA...AND SHERIFFS DISPATCH FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY REPORTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. NRN PART OF WASHINGTON COUNTY ALSO EXPERIENCE AREAS OF DENSE FOG. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO QUICKLY THIN AFTER 12-13Z. WL LEAN MORE ON CONSISTENT ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY...AS LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE NAM HAVE BEEN ADJUSTING TO THESE SOLUTIONS. MID-LEVEL PROTECTIVE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS INTO WISCONSIN. MAIN SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL NE REMAINS WELL WEST OF SRN WI TODAY...HOWEVER WIND PROFILER NETWORK PICKS UP WEAKER SHORT WAVE FARTHER EAST OVER ERN KS WHICH TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN WI LATER TODAY. SRN WI GETS BRUSHED WITH MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH IS TIED TO IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES INCREASE ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH TODAY. STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OF -10 TO -20 UNITS FROM GFS BRUSHES WESTERN CWA LATER TODAY...SO WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY WORDING IN THIS AREA...AND KEEP CHANCE GRADIENT FARTHER EAST. DESPITE WARMER START TO DAY MOST AREAS...CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT IN CHECK...WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AROUND YESTERDAYS READINGS. SHEBOYGAN AND PORT WASHINGTON WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN...SO WL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY WITH SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION. WL HANG ONTO CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AS WEAKENING SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI. WL TREND DOWNWARD WITH POPS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST. INCREASING SLY FLOW HOWEVER WL PULL DEEPER LOW LEVEL RH INTO THE AREA FOR TNGT...RESULTING IN THICKENING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM VERY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY...WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAY BE RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT WARM ADVECTION MAY BRING A SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS IN THE 15-16C RANGE...SHOULD GET INTO THE LOW 70S MOST PLACES...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN COMES OUT AT ALL. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES SAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES INTO THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR EXPECTED TO GO ALONG WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THUS THINK SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH SPC NOSING THE SLIGHT RISK JUST INTO THE SW FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW BRINGING SFC LOW TO AROUND THE BORDER OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO NOSE RIGHT INTO SRN WI...WITH MODELS GENERALLY ALL KEEPING SFC WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAPE VALUES GET BACK UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG DURING THE DAY...WITH A TON OF SHEAR AGAIN...ON THE ORDER OF 50-70 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. CERTAINLY A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. WILL BE MILD AGAIN SUNDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND TIMING OF PRECIP WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM IT GETS...BUT LOW OR EVEN MID 70S SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH UPPER 70S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME SUNSHINE. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM KEPT CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW...ALONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO HIT 50 TUESDAY. SHOULD BE DRY TUESDAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR MID WEEK...AS MODELS ALL GENERALLY SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING THOUGH THE AREA AT SOME POINT. TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS RESULTING INTO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN POPS FOR INDIVIDUAL PERIODS...THOUGH PRECIP AT SOME POINT MID WEEK SEEMS REASONABLE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...GRADUALLY THICKENING CLOUDS TODAY BUT DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP CIGS VFR DESPITE INCREASING -SHRA THREAT LATE MRNG AND AFTN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL THIS AFTN SO WL HOLD OFF FROM INTRODUCING THUNDER IN TAFS AT THIS POINT. CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SLY WINDS WL USHER DEEPER RH IN TNGT...WITH LIKELY MVFR CIGS. && .MARINE...DESPITE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEAST. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 18Z/12 SHOW LAKE SFC TEMPS BEYOND THE NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN AROUND 5-6C. HENCE EXPC LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVER LAKE MI TODAY...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. WIND GUSTS WL EXCEED 22KTS HIGHER THAN 1K FEET OFF LAKE. SECOND STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THRU UPPER MIDWEST ON SUN WL RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH EXPCD WMFNT TO BE NORTH OF SRN LAKE MI...GUSTY SW WINDS WL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS FROM SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ052-060. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 290846 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 346 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DRIER AIR RIDING NORTHEAST BREEZES HAS RESULTED IN SCOURING OUT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER DEEPER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE PUSHED FAR AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WL BE REMAINING SOUTHERLY JUST TO THE SOUTH IN SRN IA INTO NRN IL. PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND AN INCH IN THESE AREAS. ALREADY SOME SCT -SHRA FORMING IN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN SE IOWA...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD ERODE THESE -SHRA BEFORE MAKING INROADS INTO SRN WI. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE VCNTY OF SOUTHEAST CO WL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS ERN IA AND WI TNGT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL PULL THIS DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO WI. IN FACT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW STRONGER LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COMMENCING THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING OVER SRN WI THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WL LEAN A LITTLE MORE ON CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS AS LATEST NAM TRENDING TOWARD SLIGHTLY FASTER SCENARIO IN CARRYING MID LEVEL WAVE INTO VCNTY OF NERN IA BY 00Z/MON. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL FACTORS COME TOGETHER DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE ENHANCED FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST BY 12Z. WL BUMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS...WITH FAVORED PERIOD OF PRECIP IN THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE EASTERN CWA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED T DUE TO STRENGTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OMEGA. IN THE SHORT TERM...STILL EXPECT A WARMER DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WL CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES ON MAX T. ONSHORE FLOW WL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER AS WELL. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FORCING WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF WI BY 12Z MON...BUT KEPT LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN TAPERED OFF THE CHANCES TO DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN INTO MON NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL 500MB SHORTWAVES ROLL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW. THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT NEAR THE LAKE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER IN THE EAST. EXPECTING MAX TEMPS TO BE BELOW GUIDANCE... RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NEAR THE LAKESHORE TO THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND. WEAK RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL KEEP THINGS DRY MON NIGHT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT CLOUDS WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. FLOW BACKS TO THE SW ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERN TROUGH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL TUE EVENING. THERE IS REALLY NOT STRONG FORCING FOR THIS NEXT CHANCE...SO BACKED OFF ON POPS TO CHANCE INSTEAD OF LIKELY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ POINTS INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROLL ACROSS WI...AND SOUTHERN WI IS VAGUELY WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET DURING THIS TIME. .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND ON TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY. CAPE INCREASES BY 00Z THU TO ALMOST 1500 J/KG...WITH LIFTED INDEX AROUND -7...DECENT SHEAR AND A BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER AROUND 40 PER THE GFS MODEL. THE CIPS WARM SEASON ANALOG SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND BASED ON PREVIOUS SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS FROM PAST SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERNS...AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. SPC HAD SOUTHEAST WI MARKED IN A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THEIR SAT MORNING EXTENDED CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER PRODUCT /CWASP/ IN OUR OFFICE SHOWS MUCH OF WI IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SOUTHERN WI WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK OVERHEAD...THUS ALLOWING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR WED/WED NIGHT AND ALSO FOR THU. STAY TUNED. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS THEN SHIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF WI THU NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI SO THERE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... NORTHEAST BREEZES CONTINUE TO CARRY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN RESULTING IN SCOURING LOW CLOUDS. EXPC VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH BKN-OVC MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SHRA EXPCD TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI TONIGHT RESULTING IN LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS. EXPC CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR TNGT...AND POSSIBLY LOWER BY MON MRNG. && .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MI TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONSHORE RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND MID LAKE BUOY CONTINUE TO SHOW SRN LAKE MI SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. EXPC INVERSION TO PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING LAKE SURFACE TNGT. HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KTS MAY BE FELT AT SGNW3 AND KNSW3 WHERE ANEMOMETER HEIGHTS ARE 60FT ABV LAKE SFC. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 150846 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. GOES SOUNDER SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.6 INCH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPSTREAM...PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCH BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. PWAT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HAVE BEGUN TO SEE 45 TO 50 DEGREE DEWPTS IN THE PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD WI. MODEL FORECASTED DEWPTS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO WARM...HOWEVER AGREE WITH SPC THAT SFC DEWPTS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S THIS AFTN. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOT GREAT DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SRN WI DOES GET CLIPPED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CAUSED BY SECOND VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR SRN END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AXIS OF 10 UNIT LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE AFTN...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENESIS. BEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTN ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...SO WENT WITH SCT WORDING. BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW THE TSTORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP POSSIBLY TAKE ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. HIGH LCL SHOULD PREVENT TORNADO FORMATION...AS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. SVR THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL PREVENT LAKE BREEZE...SO WL BE WARM AT THE SHORE AS WELL. HOWEVER LAKE MI BEACH GOERS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR RAPID COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER STRONGLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO APPROACH 70 BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS WI THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW TO MID 70S ON THU. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A LITTLE COOLER. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID CLOUDS WITH THE WAA AS WELL. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO SOUTHERN WI GIVEN THE SPRAWLING HIGH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND MODELS SEEM TO KEEP OVERESTIMATING THE DEWPOINT TEMPS BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN GENERATING PRECIP WITH THE WAA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS IT IN NORTHERN WI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FCST FOR NOW BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH. .LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THERE COULD BE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THUS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI AS WELL. BY FRI AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD BE CAPPED...WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT SO TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT INTO WI AS EARLY AS LATE SAT NIGHT SO THEREFORE MENTIONED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE SO WILL HAVE TO SPREAD THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL DURATION WOULD BE LESS THAN A 12 HOUR WINDOW. TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE TEMP DIFFERENCE EXPECTED BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTH. EXPC THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLD TO SCT THUNDER MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40-50KTS NEAR THOSE STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON REVEALED LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI. FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE HAD SST IN THE MID 60S WHILE LARGE EXPANSE OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S. SUNSHINE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25KTS OVER THE SHORE AREAS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MIXING...HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY WL BE POSTED. GUSTINESS WL DIMINISH FARTHER OUT INTO THE LAKE...WHERE COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. COLD FRONT WL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z...WITH WINDS TURNING RAPIDLY TO THE NNE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE WILL CAUSE THIS COLD FRONT TO ACT AS A PNEUMONIA FRONT...AND WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID WIND SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SFC TEMP...RISE IN PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30KTS DURING THIS FOUR HOUR PERIOD. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WL SETTLE DOWN BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 151747 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012 .UPDATE...SFC COLD FRONT IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. VIS SAT SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO WORK INTO THE CWA...THOUGH SHOULD NOT INHIBIT TODAY\S HIGHS. INHERITED TEMPS AND SKIES ARE ON TRACK. THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN REGARD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 18 UTC. CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MOISTURE...AS SEEN BY LOW PWAT VALUES AND MODEL FCST/12Z SOUNDINGS...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FURTHERMORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...SPECIFICALLY NAM AND RAP...AND HOW THEY MIX DEWPOINTS. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IS POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PRETTY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS THOUGH...WITH MODELS ALL GENERALLY OVERDOING DEWPOINTS. THUS STILL NOT EXCITED AT THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO OPTED TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS IN TAFS. CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. GOES SOUNDER SHOWS PWAT VALUES AROUND 0.6 INCH ACROSS THE AREA WHILE UPSTREAM...PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCH BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CARRYING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. PWAT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVER LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HAVE BEGUN TO SEE 45 TO 50 DEGREE DEWPTS IN THE PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD WI. MODEL FORECASTED DEWPTS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES TOO WARM...HOWEVER AGREE WITH SPC THAT SFC DEWPTS COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 50S THIS AFTN. EXAMINATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES REVEAL POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOT GREAT DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER SRN WI DOES GET CLIPPED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CAUSED BY SECOND VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR SRN END OF LAKE WINNIPEG. AXIS OF 10 UNIT LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SWEEPS THRU SRN WI DURING THE AFTN...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FRONTOGENESIS. BEST THREAT WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTN ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...SO WENT WITH SCT WORDING. BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW THE TSTORMS THAT DUE DEVELOP POSSIBLY TAKE ON SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. HIGH LCL SHOULD PREVENT TORNADO FORMATION...AS DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. SVR THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WL PREVENT LAKE BREEZE...SO WL BE WARM AT THE SHORE AS WELL. HOWEVER LAKE MI BEACH GOERS WL NEED TO WATCH FOR RAPID COOLING EARLY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER STRONGLY TO THE NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON WED IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO APPROACH 70 BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS WI THROUGH THU NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW TO MID 70S ON THU. EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS A LITTLE COOLER. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MID CLOUDS WITH THE WAA AS WELL. THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO SOUTHERN WI GIVEN THE SPRAWLING HIGH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND MODELS SEEM TO KEEP OVERESTIMATING THE DEWPOINT TEMPS BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN GENERATING PRECIP WITH THE WAA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND GFS FOCUS IT IN NORTHERN WI WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE TOWARD CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FCST FOR NOW BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER NORTH. LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THERE COULD BE A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THU NIGHT INTO FRI WHICH COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. THUS KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRI AS WELL. BY FRI AFTERNOON...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE SHOULD BE CAPPED...WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS COOLER TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT SO TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND FROM THE LAKE. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE COLD FRONT COULD MAKE IT INTO WI AS EARLY AS LATE SAT NIGHT SO THEREFORE MENTIONED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER. HOWEVER...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUICKEST AND THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST. THIS FAR OUT THE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE SO WILL HAVE TO SPREAD THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL DURATION WOULD BE LESS THAN A 12 HOUR WINDOW. TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR TO THE TEMP DIFFERENCE EXPECTED BETWEEN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTH. EXPC THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLD TO SCT THUNDER MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 40-50KTS NEAR THOSE STORMS LATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY SO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINE...LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON REVEALED LARGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI. FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE HAD SST IN THE MID 60S WHILE LARGE EXPANSE OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS REMAINED IN THE MID 40S. SUNSHINE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 25KTS OVER THE SHORE AREAS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MIXING...HENCE A SMALL CRAFT ADVY WL BE POSTED. GUSTINESS WL DIMINISH FARTHER OUT INTO THE LAKE...WHERE COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION. COLD FRONT WL SWEEP RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z...WITH WINDS TURNING RAPIDLY TO THE NNE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE WILL CAUSE THIS COLD FRONT TO ACT AS A PNEUMONIA FRONT...AND WILL RESULT IN THE RAPID WIND SHIFT...SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SFC TEMP...RISE IN PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 30KTS DURING THIS FOUR HOUR PERIOD. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WL SETTLE DOWN BY LATE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...ET/DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 070825 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING /EH.W/ HEADLINES FOR TODAY. SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS REST OF SOUTHERN WI THRU MID-MRNG...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. COOLER...LESS HUMID AIR GRADUALLY SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WL TAKE ITS TIME ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA. SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS BY LATE MRNG...WHILE INCREASING CLOUDS...THE COOLER AIR AND STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN RESULT IN IN COOLER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HENCE WL LET EH.W EXPIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AT 12Z AND IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTN. THIS AREA MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLIER THIS AFTN. 925H TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS MRNG BEFORE SLIDING BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AXIS SLIDES THROUGH SRN WI FROM LATE MRNG INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL RH. THIS TEAMS UP WITH SOME 850-700MB FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS TO ADD SOME ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK THROUGH THE ELEVATED CAP AND PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION FROM LATE MRNG INTO THE EARLY EVE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE NORTH...CLOSER TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SLIDES SOUTH OVERNIGHT...SO WL CONFINE SMALL CONVECTION THREAT IN SOUTH TO EVENING. .SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW TO BRING A NEEDED BREAK TO THE HEAT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH ONSHORE WINDS LIKELY HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 70S NEAR THE LAKE MOST DAYS. THOUGH MUCH NICER TEMPS EXPECTED...NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR RAIN CHANCES. MODELS NOT SHOWING A CONSISTENT SUBSTANTIAL WAVE IN THE FLOW...SO KEPT DRY FORECAST GOING. UPPER RIDGING TO EVENTUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH TEMPS WARMING UP A BIT...POSSIBLY BACK TOWARD THE 90S BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...WL NEED TO WATCH FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS MID LEVEL FORCING SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SRN WI. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS WL ACCOMPANY ANY CONVECTION. CONVECTION THREAT ENDS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTS SWD. SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO PUT INTO TAFS. && .MARINE...FAVORING SHORT TERM NAM GUIDANCE WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS. NORTHERN LAKE MI BUOY GUSTING OVER 20KTS SINCE 04Z. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN...CREATING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY FROM 03Z/07 HAD MID-LAKE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER SRN LAKE MI AND AROUND 70 FARTHER NORTH. WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25KTS AT TIMES BEGINNING LATER THIS MRNG. HENCE WL BE ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH STAGGERED START TIMES...BEGINNING MID-MRNG IN THE NORTH AND LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN IN THE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WL CONTINUE ON SUN...BUT THINKING WINDS AND WAVES WL HOLD BELOW ADVY LEVELS FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ062- 063-067>069. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046- 047-051-052-056>060-066. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ064- 065-070>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 270237 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 937 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012 .UPDATE...PUSH OF DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING WAVE RESULTING IN THINNING LOW-MID CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. UPSTREAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT CHANGING MUCH BEHIND WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OF DAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. QUITE A BIT OF DRIER AIR AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN...HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVY AND KEEP MENTION OF DENSE FOG MORE PATCHY ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER ENOUGH CONCERN FOR DENSE FOG TO ISSUE SPS. ALSO THINKING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OF DRIER AIR WILL PRECLUDE REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS WITH FOG THE MAIN THREAT. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...WL BRING VSBY IN TAF SITES CLOSE TO ALTERNATE LANDING MINIMUMS IN EXPECTED FOG LATER TONIGHT. MAY EVEN TAKE VSBYS DOWN TO AIRFIELD LANDING MINIMUMS AT KENW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. && .MARINE...SHEBOYGAN WEBCAMS SHOWED AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. INTERESTING SINCE RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S...OFF SHORE. PERHAPS THE RECENT SOUTH WINDS RESULTED IN SOME UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS CLOSE TO SHORE. THERE WERE A FEW PIXELS OF LOW 60S IN THE MODIS SST PASS FROM 0709Z/SUN. WOULD THINK AREAS OF DENSE FOG WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS TURN MORE OFFSHORE DURING THE NIGHT...WITH WINDS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. FOR THIS REASON...HELD OFF ON MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY FOR NOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 291634 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1134 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012 .UPDATE... A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS UPDATE...MAINLY TO HIGH TEMPS AND SKY COVER. OVERALL...A BENIGN WX DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH SFC HIGH OVER MICHIGAN AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING TODAY. SKY COVER WAS DECREASED A BIT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND ADJUSTED FOR DIURNAL CU POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED ALTOCU ARE OBSERVED ON VIS SAT AT AROUND 80-100 HFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER GIVEN SOUNDINGS AND WEAK WAA. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES GIVEN THIS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DIURNAL CU. HIGHS WERE ADJUSTED AS WELL DUE TO RECENT CHANGES IN SKY AND 925 HPA TEMPS. 925 HPA TEMPS RANGED GENERALLY FROM 26 C FAR WEST TO 22 C FAR EAST...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 90 F TO 84 F. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE ADEQUATE MIXING UP TO AT LEAST 900 HPA GIVEN SOUNDINGS...THERE WILL BE AN ON-SHORE FLOW. AS SUCH...WITH LAKE TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S AS SEEN FROM MODIS 8-DAY SST...DIDN\T GO THAT HIGH IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS OVER CENTRAL CWA WERE RAISED THOUGH...2-4 DEGREES F. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE PERIOD. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. THEN...MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT MSN TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET FORMS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL...AS THE NAM IS SHOWING CLOSE TO OR JUST UNDER 30 KTS OF WIND DIFFERENCE AND ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIRECTION CHANGE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. LOW LEVELS...BELOW 10K FEET EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRIER. ALSO...CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 310 THETA SURFACE REMAIN OVER 200MB OVER WESTERN CWA THIS MRNG WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW. PREDOMINANCE OF MESO-SCALE MODELS KEEP ANY ACTIVITY WEST OF CWA. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ISOLD -SHRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR WEST...BUT WL ROLL DICE AND REMOVE SMALL POPS IN WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECT PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH SOUTH OF AREA LATER TODAY. BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS WARMER THAN TUESDAY. FEW WESTERN LOCATIONS MAY CLIMB TO NEAR 90F. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT AS REMNANTS OF ISAAC PUSHES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. TIGHTENING GRADIENT WL RESULT IN MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD WITH LESS THREAT FOR FOG. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD 591-594DM UPPER RIDGE WITH WARM SOUTHWEST 850/925 WINDS. 850 TEMPS 23-24C. TAKING ECMWF AS COMPROMISE ON 925 THERMAL FIELD YIELDS 26C IN THE FAR SE TO NEAR 29C IN THE FAR NW CWA. SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ADEQUATE MIXING. TEMPS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 90S. IN SOME CASES THE GFS MOS DEW POINTS ARE 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NAM MOS. GIVEN THE PARCHED LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS WILL CERTAINLY LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER LOOK OF THE NAM. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. 925 THERMAL FIELD SUPPRESSES HIGHEST TEMPS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH A MIN IN THE NE CWA...THANKS TO A WEAK FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. STILL VERY TOASTY WITH 90 PLUS INLAND TEMPS EXPECTED. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM EYES WILL BE ON THE TRACK AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ISAAC. 00Z GEM AND 00Z GFS KEEP IT SOUTH. 12Z ECMWF WAS PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE PUSH INTO SRN WI SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THE 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP OUT OF SOUTHERN WI. BLENDED POPS TO MESH WITH DVN AND LOT. IF MODELS MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN THIS SOUTHERN SOLUTION LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ABLE TO GO DRY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/EAST WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AROUND MONDAY. APPEARS UPPER FLOW MAY GO ANTICYCLONIC TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIX TOO...SO A TREND TOWARDS DRY FOR TUESDAY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. WILL RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF FOG PERIOD AT KENW AND KUES EARLY THIS MRNG DUE TO LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS BELOW INVERSION. ANY FOG SHOULD THIN QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MRNG FROM WEAK UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD THIN AS WARM AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING OVER INLAND AREAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER STILL SOME SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS PERTAINING TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE GRADIENT. HENCE PER COORD WITH GRB...WL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE ONE MORE LOOK AT EXPECTED WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY BEFORE PULLING TRIGGER ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY. FIRE WEATHER...WEATHER CRITERIA FOR DETERMINING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED ON THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 15 MPH OR HIGHER. AFTERNOON RH WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR LOWER AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S. HOWEVER CFFDRS BUILD-UP INDEX REMAINS WELL BELOW 100 WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AFTER GREEN-UP. WI-DNR WILL BE REASSESSING FUEL MOISTURE THIS MRNG FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI FOR THU. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...ET/MEB TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 310839 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 339 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE..MEDIUM WEAK UPSTREAM PRESSURE RISES AND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG WEAK COOL FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TODAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND LINGERING WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WL ACT AS CAP PREVENTING ISOLD PRECIP. HENCE WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY. TEMPS TRICKY AS HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAPID COOLING IN EAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS ON THURSDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP ALONG SHORE AREAS THIS AFTN. TEMPS MAY FALL 20-30F IN SEVERAL HOURS FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. LARGE GRADIENT OF MAX TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS CWA TODAY...FROM THE LOWER 80S FAR NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN THE SOUTH. FRONT SAGS JUST SOUTH OF WI/IL BORDER TONIGHT...WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN SOUTHERN CWA. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF ISAAC REMNANTS MAY BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. ..SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM DID NOT MAKE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND. STILL EXPECTING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. KEPT SOME LOW POPS TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME RAIN MAY SNEAK NORTH INTO THE STATE. EXPECTING SUNSHINE AT TIMES SAT AND SUN...SO KEPT HIGHS JUST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE UNDER EASTERLY WINDS. .MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE/LIFT FIELDS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. 925 MB TEMPS EVEN WARMER MONDAY...SO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE. LOOKS MAINLY DRY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES THROUGH. MODELS DO TRY AND BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES...SO THREW SOME LOW POPS INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO BIG PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND MONDAY FRONT...SO KEPT 80S GOING FOR TUESDAY. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM KEPT POPS GOING FOR WED AND THU...AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NEITHER SYSTEM LOOKS PROMISING FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...BUT STRONGER LOW AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY AT LEAST SUGGESTING SOME COOLER AIR MIGHT FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS OVER SRN WI. SFC WINDS WL ALSO INCREASE WITH INSOLATION THIS MRNG BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SFC FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SRN WI. PRESSURE GRADIENT WL REMAIN TIGHTEST OVER KENW...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. RAPID WIND SHIFT TO THE NNE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KMKE AND KENW BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHWARD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AS FRONT SLIPS THROUGH WITH CAPPING INVERSION. HENCE HELD OFF ON ANY ISOLD PRECIP. INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ISAAC REMNANTS APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE...LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN WI AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS OVER SHORE AREAS FROM WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR FOR 1-3 HOURS LATER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED BRIEF PERIOD...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LMZ646 AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT WL RESULT IN WINDS RAPIDLY TURNING TO THE NE LATER TODAY. TIME FRAME FOR WIND SHIFT FROM SGNW3 TO PWAW3 BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z...AND MLWW3 TO KNSW3 FROM 18Z TO 21Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY RESULTED IN UPWELLING EVENT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPS HAVE COOLED INTO THE 50S FROM SHEBOYGAN SOUTH TO MILWAUKEE. AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...THESE COOL WATER TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY SOMEWHAT...BUT WL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW FAR LAKESHORE TEMPS DROP IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S COULD PRODUCE SOME HAZE OR LIGHT FOG AS IT CROSSES COOLER UPWELLING WATERS AS WELL...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS POINT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 070830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL TEAM WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO BRING NMRS SHRA TO THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REACHING 30 UNITS SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN WI THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING THE EAST THIS EVENING. LAYER FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS ALSO SPREADS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. IN ADDITION...STRONG ISENTROPIC OMEGA ON 305 THETA SFC SPREADS ACROSS SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG THRU MID-AFTN. SRN WI WL REMAIN ON NRN FRINGE OF PIVOTING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSING CONVECTION OVER IA ATTM. SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD T FROM THIS FORCING EXPD EARLY THIS MRNG. SHRA ALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO THE NORTH AROUND KRST AND KONA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS. THINKING MORE SCT -SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE MRNG AND AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS TONIGHT AS THEY MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER DUE TO BUILDING THICKNESS TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN WI...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WILL CARRY T MENTION IN SOUTH DUE TO LINGERING ELEVATED WEAK INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTN. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON WESTERN SIDE OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WINDOW FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL IS MID AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE SOUNDING WITH THE NAM ITSELF NOT PAINTING ANY QPF. GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDOW. WEAK THERMAL RIDGE POKES ACROSS SRN/CNTRL WI BEFORE COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN DURING THE EVENING. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STEADY NNW UPPER FLOW AS TROUGH AXIS PULLS FURTHER AWAY. 850 MILLIBAR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO IOWA WITH SURFACE HIGH BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS WI. 925 TEMPS AVERAGING 12-14C YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BROAD 500 MILLIBAR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THIS PERIOD. SURFACE/850 HIGHS TO THE EAST. A WARMER SOUTHERLY REGIME KICKS IN. 925 TEMPS SLOW TO RESPOND MONDAY...BUT A SLIGHT WARMING NOTED. A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING ON TUESDAY WITH 925 TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW MAIN QUESTION IS HANDLING POPS WITH MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH FRONT. GEMNH AND GFS SUGGEST PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WHILE 00Z ECMWF FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THINGS DRY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR RIPPLES TO RIDE ALONG BOUNDARY AND GENERATE SOME PRECIP THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN IS A CONCERN. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUPPORTED DECENT POPS FOR THURSDAY WHILE NEW 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A LOT DRIER LOOKING. CONSENSUS WAS REACHED TO TRIM THE POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA THIS AFTN. LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO ERODE LOW CLOUDS LATER IN THE NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ISOLD T EXPCD WITH STRONG DYNAMICS TODAY. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN ALONG WITH A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS 68-70F. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE DELTA-T OVER THE LAKE TO 12-13 DEGREES THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH INCREASING TO 15 TO 20K. WATERSPOUT INDEX INCREASES TO 8 TO 10 UNITS. WL ADD MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS TO HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO OCNL SHRA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 110356 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1056 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2012 .UPDATE...FEW IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT COOLING. WEAK UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CAUSING FEW PASSING CS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MINOR LLWS EVENT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS REACHING 35 KTS BELOW 2K FEET. OTHERWISE A VFR PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY. POSSIBLY STRONGER LLWS EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS AND WEAKENS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MIXING ENCROACHING ON THE VERY LOW LEVELS TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED AT THE SHORE...MORE FREQUENT AWAY FROM THE SHORE DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE LAKE SURFACE. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE LAKE TEMP IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AROUND 20C. HENCE PUSHED UP START TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN TWO ZONES TO PRESENT TIME...AND ALSO EXPANDED ADVISORY TO INCLUDE WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ZONE WHICH BEGINS TUESDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 232008 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 310 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...SLIDING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT ALSO...THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S MOST PLACES BEFORE WINDS/CLOUDS LEVEL THINGS OFF TOWARD MORNING. OPTED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT MILWAUKEE AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STAY MILDER AGAIN. A NICE DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY UNDER BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET BACK TO NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY FALL. .SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS VERY LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS WEAKENING COOL FRONT SLIPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT REMAINS WEAK SO FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIP INTO NORTHERN IL RATHER QUIETLY...WITH A FEW-SCT CU AND WIND SHIFT MARKING ITS PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TURNING TO THE NNE ON WED. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO SOUTHERN WI AND OVER LAKE MI DURING THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL WINDS FLIRT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME ON WED. BOTH ECMWF AND NAM SHOWING INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB WITH PARCHED AIR MASS ABOVE 700. MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP IMAGE FROM SAT EVE AND BUOY/CMAN OBS HAVE MID-LAKE TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 60S WHILE RECENT OFF SHORE WINDS HAVE COOLED SST INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. DELTA-T EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 14-15C ON WED. SOME CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT -SHRA...BUT WITH FLUCTUATING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND QUESTIONABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BELOW INVERSION...WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING -SHRA AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL 5 TO 12 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET. STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF AREA TO START OFF THE PERIOD. GFS HAS BEEN OUTLIER LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN SHOWING STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO WISCONSIN AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE ECMWF...GEM AND UKMT CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKER WAVE MOVING MORE ELY ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL MS VALLEY TOWARD EAST COAST. SINCE LATEST GFS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH...AND CONCENSUS OF OTHER LONG TERM GUIDANCE...WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR THU AND REMOVE SMALL POPS FROM IL BORDER AREA THU NGT AND FRI. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY DUE TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXTENDED GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ECMWF BRINGS WEAKENING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THRU SRN WI SAT NGT INTO SUN AND PHASES IT WITH SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE. ACTUALLY PREFER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM SYSTEMS. HPC ALSO LEANING ON GFS AND ECMWF BLEND PRODUCING THEIR BLENDED FIELDS VALID AT 12Z/30. HENCE WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR DAY 7. SUNSHINE BUT WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER TONIGHT...BUT GENERALLY APPEARS THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL ONLY INCREASE TO HIGH ENOUGH VALUES BY MORNING...WHEN WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL START COMING UP ALSO. UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES...LOOKS FAR TOO MARGINAL AND FOR TOO SHORT OF A TIME TO PUT IN TAFS. && .MARINE... STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL SEE GUSTS OF 25 OR 30 KNOTS FROM MID-LATE MORNING AND INTO THE NIGHT. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD SHEBOYGAN...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH GALE WARNING CRITERIA FOR A TIME. SEEMED TOO BORDERLINE FOR A WARNING...SO OPTED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES FROM 14Z SAT MORNING...TO 09Z SAT NIGHT. WAVES WILL NOT GET OUT OF HAND DUE TO OFFSHORE NATURE OF WINDS...PEAKING AT 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...WITH THE HIGHEST WAVES TOWARD OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062>065-067>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && .CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH. WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MEDIUM TO HIGH. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. $$ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...DDV SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 300306 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012 .UPDATE...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON OBSERVATIONS...AS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN RAPIDLY IN EASTERN AREAS WHERE EARLIER INFLUX OF MARINE LAYER HAS PUSHED DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S. BREEZY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT THICKER FOG HOWEVER. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE CLOUDS TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING MARINE LAYER MAY ALSO HELP CAUSE SOME STRATUS OVER SOUTHEAST WI FOR A TIME. DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY OVERWHELM LAKE MOISTURE ALLOWING MORE SUNSHINE TO RETURN LATER SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. WL NEED TO LOWER FEW SPOTS IN THE EAST. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW BRIEF PERIOD OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE TIED TO SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL RH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. DELTA-T INCREASES TO AROUND 10-11C AT THIS TIME. LAST SEVERAL IR SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LAKE CLOUDS OVER NORTH PART OF LAKE. WL BRING A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF BKN MVFR INTO ERN TAF SITES EARLY SUN MRNG. OTHERWISE...EXPC VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. && .MARINE...NEPHANALYSIS REVEALS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HAS MOVED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL EXPECT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO FORM OVER THE LAKE WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGES HAS UNIFORM LAKE SFC TEMPS AROUND 16C FROM THE SHORE OUT TO MID-LAKE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW 20 KNOTS...BUT PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 3 FEET OR HIGHER. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645- 646. && $$ MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 220830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GOES SOUNDER INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALREADY DOUBLED IN LAST 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER SOUTHERN WI. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OUT WEST CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IA...AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK SURFACE FRONT. THIS ADDED MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET PRODUCING INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SW IA/NRN MO. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CAUGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING LIFT TO CONVECTION. PER IR IMAGERY SHORT WAVE UPSTREAM FROM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST NE AREA. DESPITE WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS MORNING...WAVE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL AREA LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. WITH MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...WL CONTINUE CATEGORICAL POPS FROM MID-MRNG THRU THE AFTN. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO SRN WI...WL CONTINUE T MENTION. MUCAPES MAY REACH 1000 J IN THE SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THICKENING CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND COOL NEARSHORE LAKE MI WATERS. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA SHOULD STILL TRIGGER SCT TO NUMEROUS -SHRA FOR A TIME...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE LATER IN THE NIGHT. WL CONTINUE SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDER IN SOUTH LATER TNGT AS LOW LEVEL JET GETS REENERGIZED JUST TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN FOG AND MAYBE DENSE FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS SHOW WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN MOVING THE FRONT TO THE NORTH. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN SHOWING A LOT OF ELEVATED AND MEAN LAYER CAPE VERSUS THE GFS SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION...WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARD THE LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES OF THE GFS SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE A MORE REALISTIC TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY...WITHIN WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME. WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH SOUTH WINDS. THE WARM FRONT THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LINGERS THERE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPPING OF SURFACE BASED AIR PARCELS DURING THIS TIME...WITH NAM SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOWING A LOT OF MEAN LAYER AND ELEVATED CAPE. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS SOUNDINGS FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WILL TRY TO GO WITH LOWER END POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE CAPPED. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSE FOCUSES...WITH SOME FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CAP WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AS WELL. ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH 70S FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN. MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...SOME POSSIBLY DENSE...TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. .THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME...AS STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS IN PLACE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF FRONT DURING THE DAY ALSO HELPS WITH SEVERE CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW. TRAILING VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...STRONGER ON THE GFS THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW QPF WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE ECMWF DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO USE CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODEL POPS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WENT WITH CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL RESULT IN LOW CIGS OF IFR OR LOWER FOR MOST OF TNGT. DENSE FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP. && .MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER THROUGH TUESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN WI AND LOWER LAKE MI. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE DENSE FOG THREAT. WARM...MOIST AIR EXPECTED TO SURGE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO THURSDAY. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND BUOY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS THE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE MID LAKE TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE SHALLOWER WATERS. DEWPOINTS WL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. HENCE THIS MILD MOIST AIR WOULD BE COOLED OVER THE LAKE POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ADVECTION DENSE FOG. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PULL THE 50-55 DEGREE WATER INTO THE NEARSHORE AREAS...REDUCING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SO FOR NOW WL MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATE TNGT BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVY. COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS MAY RESULT IN MORE ELY SFC WINDS FOR A TIME LATER TODAY AND TNGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 262017 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 315 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MAIN ISSUE IS PROGRESSION OF AND ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION OF LARGE CLOUD MASS FROM NRN IA THROUGH MN INTO NW WI. THIS CLOUD AREA HAS AN INCREASINGLY DIURNAL LOOK. SO NOT EXPECTING THIS TO LAST LONG OR MAKE MUCH HEADWAY INTO SRN WI. UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE CRUISING NE FROM KS AND NE. CHILLY NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF INLAND MID 20S WITH L-M30S LAKESIDE/IN THE CITY. VORT TRACKS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST WITH BROAD 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING. A WEAK WAVE OR TWO ENCROACHES ON SRN WI THOUGH AIRMASS PROGGD TO BE QUITE PARCHED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. 925 TEMPS OF AROUND 0C SUGGEST HIGHS OF 43-46. .SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. MODIS MEASUREMENT FROM 16Z SHOWS AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND 11-12C ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI. HENCE EXPECT DELTA-T TO INCREASE TO AROUND 16C. 1000-850MB FLOW DOES TURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR A TIME LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE DOES SHOW INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH. HOWEVER RH REMAINS SHALLOW AND MOSTLY BELOW 3K. FOR THIS REASON...WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME...BUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR FLURRY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY SUN MRNG DURING TIME OF BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKESHORE. FOR NOW WL GO WITH P/CLDY WORDING...BUT A PERIOD OF M/CLDY SKIES POSSIBLE SUN MRNG. OTHERWISE...MAY EXPERIENCE SOME PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING UPSTREAM SYSTEMS AS THEY BUMP UP INTO INCREASING RIDGING OVER WI AND WESTERN GTLAKES. FOR THIS REASON...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN POTENTIAL FOR FULL NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE TRACK OF EXTRA-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY. DETERMINISTIC ECMWF REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A FASTER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK...PUSHING INTO THE DELMARVA REGION ON MONDAY WHILE THE UKMT...GEMNH AND GFS90 REMAIN FARTHER EAST INITIALLY...WITH THE CENTER PUSHING ASHORE FARTHER NORTH ON TUE. DGEX CLOSER TO ECMWF BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AS WELL. GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER. HPC LEANING MORE ON ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH TAKES EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM ON FASTER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN GTLAKES LATER TUE AND WED. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. 85H TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME RANGING FROM -2 TO -5C WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AS INDICATED BY ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW AND POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WINDS FLIRTING WITH NORTHEAST FOR A TIME. WITH DELTA-T RANGING FROM 12 TO 16C DURING THIS TIME...POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAY CARRY SOME LOW POPS IN THE EAST FOR MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TIME PERIOD FROM TUE INTO WED...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. FARTHER WEST TRACK INDICATED BY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD ALSO CARRY STRONGER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS WI DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...BUT DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...WL CONTAIN LOW POPS TO EASTERN AREAS FOR NOW. COLD AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...LARGE AREA OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INTO SOUTHERN WI. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND BUFKIT SUGGEST IT WILL NOT MAKE IT AS WELL. CIRRUS RIDING NORTHEAST FROM MO/SE IA WITH JET STREAK ROUNDING BROAD CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && .CONFIDENCE... TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...MEDIUM. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM. $$ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PC SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 152053 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 253 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012 .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SAG INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND SORT OF WASH OUT. A WEAK COLD FRONT...APPARENT IN THE 925MB TEMPERATURE CONTOURS...WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE A LITTLE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS FRONT. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THIS LAYER OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 4000 FEET. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0 TO -1C NEAR THE LAKE WITH THE COLD FRONT FRI MORNING. 19Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SHOWS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S OR 9C. THE LAKE-AIR TEMP DIFFERENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THIS LAYER WITHIN THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING DOWN. ONE DISCOURAGING FACT FOR THIS QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE IS THE VERY CLEAR SKIES IN MN AND NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...OPTED TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE FROM 09Z THROUGH 18Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CLOUD LAYER TO BE ABOUT 2KFT TO 3KFT THICK...SO EXPECT IT TO SCATTER AWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MIXING AS THE FRONT GETS INTO NORTHERN IL AND WASHES OUT. CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT MAX TEMPS FRIDAY...SO KEPT THEM CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE IN THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND UPPER 40S WELL INLAND. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC SOUTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW IN PLACE. 925 TEMPS WILL REACH 5-6C SATURDAY AND WARM TO NEAR 8C ON SUNDAY. AIRMASS QUITE DRY. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT BRINGING NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE INTO THE AREA. QPF LOOKS LIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGHER END CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER WITH RESULTING TEMPS A BIT COOLER THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM GFS QUICKER WITH SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF WI WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. MEANWHILE ECMWF SHOWS PRECIP TO THE EAST THOUGH LINGERING 925/850 RH DUE TO SLOWER AND WEAKER LOOK TO SURFACE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SWIFT WEST/EAST NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE ECMWF WITH SLIGHTLY MORE OF A RIDGE LOOK TO THE GFS. BEST ENERGY/MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A FROPA THOUGH IT LOOKS DRY AND FAIRLY WEAK. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CONTINUED ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS. ANY DISTURBANCES ARE NORTH OR TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT PRECIP ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRY ATMOSPHERE/LACK OF ANY MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ZIP DOWN THE LAKE AND IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR IFR/FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS BRING MOISTURE INLAND TO AT LEAST SHEBOYGAN AND WAUKESHA AND SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKESHORE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z FRIDAY. CEILINGS AT EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER IN THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON...AS THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE VERY THICK. MADISON SHOULD SEE THESE LOW CLOUDS SPREAD INLAND BY MID FRI MORNING AND THEN SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT ON CEILING HEIGHTS...BUT EXPECTING MVFR RATHER THAN IFR. && .MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NNE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN THE LAKE. MAX WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. WAVES EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 4 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 150924 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 324 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH GOES SOUNDER SHOWING VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GTLAKES WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW TWO TENTHS INCH. MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAK SHEAR VORT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK...THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A TIME TODAY...WITH THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S MOST AREAS. UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY GETS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SPREADS INTO NORTHWEST WI AFT MIDNIGHT. SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING FORCING AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS LINGERING THRU LATE TNGT...SO WL REMOVE SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO LEVELS AS COLD AS THIS MRNG. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH...WITH 850 THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE CWA MIDDAY...THEN COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THAT LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEAD WAVE/WAA COMBO GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS NRN CWA...GLANCING SHOT WITH BETTER POPS TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THAT EXITS TO THE EAST MIDDAY OR SO...THEN SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING. NAM DRY WITH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF. GUIDANCE POPS QUITE LOW. MOISTURE PROFILES VARY WITH GFS LOOKING TOO MOIST. NAM SHOWS ONLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NO QPF. WILL MENTION FLURRIES FOR NOW DURING THE EVENING WITHIN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM QUIET DAY WITH INCREASING NVA AND SURFACE RIDGING WORKING IN. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF SWATH WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP PRECIP WELL NORTHWEST. MAY JUST RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY. DECENT MODERATION IN 925 TEMPS FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THIS AND ALSO MIXED SIGNALS ON PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF POTENT CLIPPERS. 00Z ECMWF SHOWING ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH SERVING TO OPEN THE GATES TO THE ARCTIC INFLUX. A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY WILL BE SEEING SOME 925 TEMPS DOWN IN THE MINUS MID 20S. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY. EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC CDFNT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST WI. TAF SITES WILL APPROACH LLWS CRITERIA BY 12Z/16. && .MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S BY THE SHORE TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI AND THE WESTERN GTLAKES. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MI SFC TEMPS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 33 KTS LOOK MORE LIKELY WED MRNG...SO WL UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING AND EXTEND INTO THE MID AFTN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL BE AWAY FROM 2 TO 5 MILES FROM SHORE...AND BEYOND. SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 151748 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1148 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013 .UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY CLIP THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 LOOK ON TRACK...GIVEN MIXING UP TO 925MB...WITH TEMPERATURES THERE OF AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH MAY SEE A GUST TO TWO TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY...AS EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF MVFR CEILINGS BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. LEFT CEILINGS VFR FOR NOW DUE TO MODEST CONFIDENCE IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE ANY CEILING/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. && .MARINE...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10Z TO 21Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN SO ON WEDNESDAY...AS EASTWARD MOVING LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WEDNESDAY...GIVEN THE OFFSHORE FLOW. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THURSDAY. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WINDS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE WARNING EXPIRES THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. PASSING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING BRISK WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING SPRAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST TUE JAN 15 2013/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH GOES SOUNDER SHOWING VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GTLAKES WITH PWAT VALUES BELOW TWO TENTHS INCH. MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAK SHEAR VORT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK...THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR A TIME TODAY...WITH THINNING OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTN. PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S MOST AREAS. UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY GETS NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET SPREADS INTO NORTHWEST WI AFT MIDNIGHT. SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF APPROACHING FORCING AND DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS LINGERING THRU LATE TNGT...SO WL REMOVE SMALL POPS IN FAR NORTHWEST. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO LEVELS AS COLD AS THIS MRNG. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM QUICK HITTING SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH...WITH 850 THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE CWA MIDDAY...THEN COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN THAT LASTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LEAD WAVE/WAA COMBO GENERATE LIGHT QPF ACROSS NRN CWA...GLANCING SHOT WITH BETTER POPS TO THE NORTH. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR NORTH. THAT EXITS TO THE EAST MIDDAY OR SO...THEN SECONDARY WAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY EVENING. NAM DRY WITH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF. GUIDANCE POPS QUITE LOW. MOISTURE PROFILES VARY WITH GFS LOOKING TOO MOIST. NAM SHOWS ONLY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NO QPF. WILL MENTION FLURRIES FOR NOW DURING THE EVENING WITHIN THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM QUIET DAY WITH INCREASING NVA AND SURFACE RIDGING WORKING IN. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF SWATH WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM KEEP PRECIP WELL NORTHWEST. MAY JUST RIDE WITH THE ALLBLEND POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY. DECENT MODERATION IN 925 TEMPS FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND REGIME. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ARRIVING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THIS AND ALSO MIXED SIGNALS ON PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF POTENT CLIPPERS. 00Z ECMWF SHOWING ONE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SUNDAY NIGHT...BOTH SERVING TO OPEN THE GATES TO THE ARCTIC INFLUX. A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. EVENTUALLY WILL BE SEEING SOME 925 TEMPS DOWN IN THE MINUS MID 20S. MAY HAVE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY. EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SFC CDFNT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST WI. TAF SITES WILL APPROACH LLWS CRITERIA BY 12Z/16. MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S BY THE SHORE TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE EDGE OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI AND THE WESTERN GTLAKES. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY. RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE MI SFC TEMPS WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 33 KTS LOOK MORE LIKELY WED MRNG...SO WL UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING AND EXTEND INTO THE MID AFTN. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WL BE AWAY FROM 2 TO 5 MILES FROM SHORE...AND BEYOND. SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO WED EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 180305 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 905 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2013 .UPDATE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISING A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH IN SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE SURFACE DEWPTS INCREASE TO OVER 35 F. DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MRNG SO THAT IT EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TO PRODUCE AREAS OF -RA FROM LATE MRNG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE -RA MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO -SN IN THE LATE AFTN IN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING FOR A TIME. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR TURN TO LIGHT SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AT KMSN AND IN THE EVENING FARTHER EAST. LLWS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS ABOVE 1K AGL. && .MARINE...HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY FROM TODAY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ICE GROWTH IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM OAK CREEK SOUTH TO WINTHROP HARBOR AND BEYOND. ICE MORE PATCHY AND THINNER FARTHER NORTH TO PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND CONTRIBUTED TO THE ICE DEVELOPMENT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND STRONGER WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE ICE UP. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS. BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ KAVINSKY  FXUS63 KMKX 022020 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 PM CDT TUE APR 2 2013 .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT AS A 500MB CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN WI WITH A CLEAR NIGHT...MODERATE INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND 925MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -6C TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE AND MANY OTHER MODELS...SO USED A BLEND OF RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS AND BIAS-CORRECTED REGIONAL CANADIAN FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. .WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY ANY MORE THAN A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. A 16Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGE SHOWED NEARSHORE LAKE TEMPS RANGING FROM 37F NEAR SHEBOYGAN TO 40F NEAR KENOSHA. LAND TEMPS WILL WARM UP PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING WITH LAKESHORE AREAS INTO THE UPPER 30S/40. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...LIGHT WINDS AND COOL LAKE WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT THE LAKE BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND TO KENOSHA...WAUKESHA AND SHEBOYGAN BY THE MID AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. ONCE THE LAKE BREEZE HITS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL END AND TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. INLAND TEMPS WILL HAVE MORE TIME TO WARM INTO THE MID 40S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WE SHOULD HEAD INTO WED EVENING WITH LOW DEWPOINTS FROM THE DRY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPS LIKELY TO BE REACHED BY AROUND MIDNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND...THEN TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE TOWARD MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO THE HIGH SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WE GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. .THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. STILL LOOKING AT LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN...IT SHOULD REACH THE WI/IL BORDER BY 7PM THURSDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS DOWN HERE...THE PARENT LOW WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THEREFORE IT WILL BE LOSING IT/S DEFINITION AND MOISTURE...GETTING PINCHED BY RIDGING. ONLY POPS WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING...SLIGHT CHC. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA COMPARED TO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL REFRIGERATE. .FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LEADING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH THE INITIAL PRECIP INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WITH THE LOW TRACK...WHILE THE GEM AND THE GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...LIKELY BRINGING THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS OF WISCONSIN. IT/S NOT A PARTICULARLY STRONG SYSTEM...SO NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE LOW WILL BE EXITING SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE TEMP PROFILE IS COLD ENOUGH TO BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT TO AREAS NORTH OF A MILWAUKEE TO MADISON LINE...BUT WARMING TEMPS SHOULD TURN IT TO ALL RAIN ON SATURDAY. .SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. IT APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. KEPT LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA IN CASE THE SYSTEM DECIDES TO COME BACK NORTH. GIVEN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LOW...THAT PUTS US IN A MORE NORTHERLY/EASTERLY FLOW...THUS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR OUR EASTERN AREAS...AGAIN DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. .TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM. THERE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF THAT THE NEXT LOW WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY OR OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP. THERE ARE A FEW MORE LOWS THAT MOVE THROUGH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...SO THE PATTERN DOES GET PRETTY ACTIVE...AT LEAST FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND PUSH INLAND TO KENOSHA... WAUKESHA AND SHEBOYGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING NORTH WINDS TO THE MKX NEARSHORE WATERS THU EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS  FXUS63 KMKX 280216 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 916 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013 .UPDATE...WILL BEEF UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. AFTERNOON CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE WESTERN CWA. HENCE NORTHWEST AREA HAS BEST CHANCE FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN WI RIVER VALLEY AND LOW AREAS OF NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BUMP FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST A COUPLE DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...MID CLOUDS NORTH OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER MO WL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT WILL BE AT KMSN WHICH WILL BE ON EDGE OF THICKER CLOUDS. POSSIBLE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KMKE AND KENW DUE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM 1930Z SHOW LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. SOUTHERN LAKE MI BUOY 45007 WENT BACK ONLINE FOR THE SEASON YESTERDAY EVENING. 45007 CURRENTLY REPORTING A WATER TEMP OF 40. EXPECT DEWPTS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WATER TEMPS REDUCING CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...CLOUDS WILL BE CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HENCE WL BE REMOVING FOG THREAT FOR TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013/ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH BROKEN TO OVERCAST DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL SUNSET BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR DISSIPATION GIVEN BROKEN TO OVERCAST NATURE. THESE MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND CLIP THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT ANY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...DESPITE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY SEE LIGHT FOG DEVELOP...BUT LEFT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S SEEM REASONABLE. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SUNDAY NEAR THE LAKE...AND KEEP TEMPERATURES THERE IN THE 50S. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 13 TO 15 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND...MAYBE A BIT HIGHER. ALL IN ALL...ANOTHER NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS...ARRIVING IN THE NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SHOULD THEN BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL CAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO TOO HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES. WILL ALSO PROBABLY STRUGGLE FOR GOOD DAYTIME HEATING WITH ALL THE CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TOO MILD IF PRECIP DOES LINGER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IF CURRENT MODEL TIMING IS CORRECT...THE BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MORNING...WITH VERY MILD AIR PUMPING UP INTO THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST WINDS. WENT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD SLOWER EXITING PRECIP WITH THE MONDAY SHORTWAVE...OR AN EARLIER COLD FRONT ARRIVAL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ALSO...IF WINDS END UP BEING MORE SOUTHERLY...WOULD LIKE SEE MORE OF A LAKE INFLUENCE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. KEPT IT MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY...AS MOST MODELS KEEP THE COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH WEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO BE A BIT QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. SEEMED LIKE ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. EVEN THE FASTER GFS STILL HOLDS OFF LONG ENOUGH FOR MILD TEMPS IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO EXPANDED AREA OF 70S A BIT MORE. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BIG UPPER LOW WILL SETUP SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY...DEEPENING AND REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH PRECIP. OVERALL THOUGH...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA UNTIL SUNSET...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THESE MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT MADISON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER AT THE EASTERN SITES INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS WELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. VFR CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST AND CLIP THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION. MADISON MAY SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z SUNDAY...BUT LEFT OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT MADISON. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON. MARINE... LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS AROUND 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PUSHES A WARM AIRMASS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD CREATE HIGH WAVES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 240240 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 940 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 .UPDATE... WITH THE LAKE BREEZE...TEMPERATURES COOLED WELL INLAND AND WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STAY UP TO PREVENT FROST IN THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA METRO AREAS. HOWEVER THIS IS NOT LIKE FALL WITH A WARM LAKE...SO THE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS INLAND WILL GIVE MUCH PROTECTION. MODIS LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 41. TEMPERATURES ALREADY AROUND 40 IN THE KETTLE MORAINE AREA. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY IFR/LIFR GROUND FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/ VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL TRAVERSE TO WRN WI BY 12Z FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE AND 2 METER TEMPS SUGGEST LOW TEMPS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY PATCHY FROST EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO FROST ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS. 925 TEMPS PLAY OUT WITH 7C IN THE EAST AND AROUND 10C IN THE WEST. GOING WITH MID 50S LAKESIDE AND MID 60S AT INLAND LOCALES. SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LINGERING RIDGE WL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN FROM UPSTREAM WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS...COOLER TEMPERATURES WL DEVELOP OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID-UPPER 30S. MORE CLOUDINESS IN WESTERN CWA SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER TEMPS. WL ADD PATCHY FROST MENTION TO INLAND EASTERN AREA FOR LATER FRI NIGHT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING PERSISTING OVER SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ON SRN MN/NRN IA FRI NGT AND PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IA LATE IN THE NIGHT. DESPITE LOW LEVELS REMAINING DRY...WESTERN CWA MAY GET CLIPPED BY MCS THAT WL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MRNG. BAROCLINIC ZONE THEN LINGERS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FEED FROM THE EAST AND NEARBY RIDGING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EASTERN AREAS REMAINING DRY FOR MOST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEAK RIPPLES MOVING THROUGH EXPANDING RIDGE WL THREATEN WESTERN AREAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM DEEPENING UPSTREAM TROFING OVER WRN CONUS. GFS ALSO HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST CONUS BUT WITH 12Z RUN...HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWER ECMWF. HENCE WL BE LEANING TOWARD DRIER AND ULTIMATELY WARMER SCENARIO /ECMWF/ FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD. WITH THIS SOLUTION...MORE AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS MORE OF WRN GTLAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WED INTO THU. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE TUE INTO WED WHEN PUSH OF WARM AIR COINCIDES WITH PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FOR WED AND THU WITH LIMITED COLUMN MOISTURE. CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS WARMING TO SUMMER LEVELS BY THU. HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WL NEED TO CARRY TOKEN SCHC POPS IN OTHER PERIODS WITH REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THIS POINT. AVIATION /00Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH...BECOMING SCATTERED AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY MID EVENING CWA WIDE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS TONIGHT EASING THE NORTH WINDS..THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN THE EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE ON FRIDAY WITH A MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MARINE...PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NNE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN HIGH WAVES. GRADIENT EXPECTED TO VERY SLOWLY RELAX A BIT INTO THE EVENING BUT THE WAVES WILL BE SLOW TO EASE. PONDERED AN EXTENSION TO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE BUT WILL LET EVENING SHIFT REASSESS TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO WAVE CESSATION BASED ON WINDS FINALLY ABTE SOME. FOR NOW...GOING END TIMES ARE PLAUSIBLE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051- 052-058>060-064-065-070. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ644>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ UPDATE...HENTZ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 142029 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 .TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM. HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT 12Z NAM SOLUTION WHICH CARRIES MCS ACROSS SRN WI AFT MIDNIGHT. NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER SRN IA/NRN MO ATTM. ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCV FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF SRN WI THIS EVENING. MORE CONCERNED ABOUT ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OVER NW IA. MCV FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT SOUTHWEST WI LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SAT. STILL EXPECT STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI OVERNIGHT AS PWAT VALUES DOUBLE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON PIVOTING WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS SRN WI LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WL LIKELY CARRY WEAKENING CONVECTION ACROSS TRI-STATE AREA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO REFIRE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MOVES ACROSS SRN WI IN RESPONSE TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. BY THIS TIME...DEWPTS WL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S RESULTING IN SFC BASED CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. SHEAR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS...PROVIDED CLOUDS FROM MORNING MCS CLEAR DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN. .SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS NOW KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE QPF JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ALL BRING A BLOB OF QPF THROUGH PORTIONS OR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTING INTO THE AREA AT 00Z SUNDAY PER ECMWF/CANADIAN...THOUGH NAM/GFS HAVE IT POINTING FURTHER TO THE EAST. ALL MODELS SHOW RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 250MB JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING SATURDAY EVENING...WITH THE 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PASSING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM SHOWING MODEST MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH THE GFS SOUNDINGS MORE MOIST. ELEVATED CAPES OF 500 TO 900 J/KG WITH DECENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR ON GFS...LESS SO ON ADJUSTED NAM SOUNDINGS. SEVERE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE LINEAR MCS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING...PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND KEPT HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH WHERE EXACTLY ANY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH...SO KEEP UP WITH LATER FORECASTS. NICE DAY EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LAKE BREEZE LATE IN THE DAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THERE. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY 00Z TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN LAYER CAPES WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST WERE ADDED...WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY. MAY HAVE TO RAISE POPS IN LATER FORECASTS GIVEN STRONG SHORTWAVE AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. A SEVERE RISK IS POSSIBLE MONDAY IF BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR DEVELOPS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER SMALL CHANCES FOR LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AND EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH ONSHORE WINDS EACH DAY KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER. THESE MODELS THEN DIFFER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WARMER SOLUTION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...AND THE ECMWF KEEPING THE REGION NORTHEAST OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. USED CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AND POPS. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION AFFECTING KMSN AROUND AND AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ISOLD CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT ERN TAF SITES EARLY SAT. CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR FOR A TIME SAT MRNG AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER SAT AFTN AND EVE. && .MARINE... SOME CONCERN REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT IN LIGHTER LOW LEVEL WIND REGIME AND INCREASING SFC DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. LATEST CLOSEUP SEA SURFACE MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. OTHERWISE NO PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SRN ZONES SAT INTO SAT EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 290251 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 951 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013 .UPDATE...VSBY QUICKLY DROPPED TO 1/4SM AT KENW JUST AFTER LOW STRATUS AREA PASSED BY. HOWEVER KENW WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN HIGHER AND LOWER VSBYS THROUGH 08-09Z DUE TO AREA OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST CWA ATTM. POSTED DENSE FOG ADVY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST HOWEVER AS EXPECT VSBYS TO FALL AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FARTHER NORTH...AT LEAST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH KEFT/KMRJ AREAS MORE CLOSELY DUE TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LESS EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN NON-ADVY AREAS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS FAVOR A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER PERIOD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI THROUGH 08-09Z. HENCE WL LIMIT PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS TO LATE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN KENW WHICH HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO 1/4SM VSBY. LIKELY WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME AS CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS BUT WL LIKELY DROP BACK TO IFR OR LOWER LATE TONIGHT. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND RECENT SGNW3 SUGGEST RECENT OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS IN PORTIONS OF NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE COOLER WATERS IN THE 50S WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT...MORE OF A ADVECTION VERSUS RADIATION SCENARIO OVER LAKE MI. HENCE WL CONTINUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY THROUGH THU MRNG. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2013/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SHORELINE AREAS FROM MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING/MIXING OUT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING LIGHT/CALM WINDS...BUT DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONLY THING PREVENTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUANCE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY IS THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST DURING THE NIGHT. IF THESE DO NOT MATERIALIZE AS ANTICIPATED...DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. STILL...WENT WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG FROM 09Z TO 14Z THURSDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG LEADING UP TO THAT PERIOD. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BRINGING ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TO THE AREA. 925MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH LOWER 80S LAKESIDE. THIS IS RELIANT ON FOG MIXING OUT BY LATE MORNING. ADDED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AREAS LATE THURSDAY...AS FOCUSED 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CLIPS THAT AREA WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR/U.P. AREA. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE STAYS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. TWO PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ONE WITH THE MODERATE 35 KNOT 850 KNOT JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS TO OUR NORTH BUT THAT COULD AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RAISES TO 1200 J/KG. THEN THE INCREASED 850 MB WINDS SAG INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSSES SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 925/850 MB THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE INCREASES TO 3000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EHI VALUES RISE TO 2 TO 4 WITH ZERO TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS. THE LOCAL SEVERE CWASP PARAMETER INCREASES TO AROUND 65 PCT. AS A RESULT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. CIPS ANALOG HAS QUITE A FEW SEVERE REPORTS INDICATED ESPECIALLY WIND BUT THERE IS ALSO A FEW HAIL AND TORNADOES REPORTS. SPC HAS A 5 PCT SEVERE RISK AT THIS MOMENT...AND COULD BE UPGRADED. THE NAM KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT WHICH SHOULD THEN END THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...;WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LONG TERM... LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTH LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED LABOR DAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, THEN A SECONDARY SURGE OF VERY COOL AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS COOLER THAN THE GFS. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...EXCEPT SOME CEILINGS NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. VISIBILITIES BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND PERHAPS DOWN TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH FOG AT ALL SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER ON THURSDAY. LOW CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD MIX OUT EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE. FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 03Z THURSDAY AND LINGER UNTIL AROUND 15Z THURSDAY. POTENTIAL THERE FOR DENSE FOG BELOW 1/4 MILE DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THICK THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE DURING THAT TIME. FOR NOW...WILL GO BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS BUT ABOVE AIRPORT MINIMUMS FROM 09Z TO 14Z THURSDAY. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING...WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MARINE... EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DENSE FOG...CONFIRMED BY AREA WEB CAMERAS NEAR THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE WATERS. THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ070>072. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 300221 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 921 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013 .UPDATE...WHILE BULK OF FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT...SOME INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AS MID-LEVEL CAPPING WEAKENS. MID- LEVEL STEERING WINDS NORTHWEST FOR A TIME BEFORE BACKING TO MORE WESTERLY. HENCE ENOUGH TO WARRENT KEEPING IN SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDER OVER NORTHEAST CWA LATER TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. EXPECT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT WITH CAPES EXCEEDING 2500 J. ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME AFTERNOON SUPERCELLS OVER CWA AS FRONT SAGS THROUGH. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW AREAS BUT COUNTING ON MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND EVENTUAL INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION TO THE NORTH TO PREVENT EXTENDED PERIOD OF FOG WITH LOWER VSBYS. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CDFNT MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS OVER ERN TAF SITES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN SHALLOW SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO INTRODUCE CIGS. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED THAT THE STRONG LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAD WEAKENED. THE BULK OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...LESSENING THE COOLING EFFECT ON HUMID AIR OVER THE LAKE. HENCE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. LATEST VISIBLE WEBCAM IMAGES WAS SHOWING SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE EAST OF SGNW3. MORE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ALSO HELP PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT THU AUG 29 2013/ VERY SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MAIN ISSUES FOR THIS PERIOD ARE HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL FRIDAY...AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN TONIGHT...REACHING AN IRON MOUNTAIN MICHIGAN TO WINONA MINNESOTA LINE BY 12Z FRIDAY. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH 850MB LOW LEVEL JET/FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL...OR RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT LOWER END POPS FOR TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...IN CASE ANY LEFTOVER PRECIPITATION DOES REACH THAT AREA. WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S INTO MOST OF THE AREA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95 TO 99 RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING 100 OR HIGHER. WILL MENTION THIS IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CIN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC MODELS GENERATING PRECIPITATION BY 00Z SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM QUICKER WITH ITS MOVEMENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS. WRF/NMM 4KM MODEL FROM SPC DOES NOT GENERATE A LOT OF CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE IS FAIRLY ROBUST...THOUGH 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MISSES AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUTPACES THE FRONT. NO JET DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF EITHER. THUS...LEFT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...COULD NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION. SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOT QUITE OUT OF CWA BY 06Z FRIDAY...WITH NAM AND GFS SHOWING A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG SURFACE FRONT SO WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE WEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. COOL AIR STREAMING IN WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES COOLING 6C TO 8C BETWEEN 00Z SATURDAY TO 12Z SATURDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION TRAPPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO VARYING DEGREES. WILL ACKNOWLEDGE FOG POTENTIAL WITH PATCHY EVERYWHERE AND AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. WILL SEE 925 MB TEMPS RECOVER ENOUGH FOR HIGHS AROUND 80 WELL INLAND SATURDAY...BUT THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE COOLED BY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH MID 70S NEAR THE LAKE AND A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG AND WEST OF THE KETTLE MORAINE. TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA DROPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. WILL HAVE COLLABORATIVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVES IN WEST OF MADISON WITH THE FRONT BY 18Z...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER ON SUNDAY EVENING...THEN COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH NNW UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE EXTENDED DRY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE EARLY EXTENDED CLIMBING BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT MADISON AND KENOSHA. SOUTH WINDS AT MADISON...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EASTERN SITES...ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND VEER SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY FOG POTENTIAL TO MADISON AND KENOSHA IN THE 09Z TO 14Z FRIDAY PERIOD. WENT JUST VFR FOG IN TAFS FOR NOW. SOME SOUTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO TAF SITES AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 21Z FRIDAY UNTIL AROUND 03Z TO 05Z SATURDAY. USING VICINITY WORDING IN TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. MARINE...SOME HAZINESS/PATCHY FOG SEEN ON AREA WEB CAMERAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...MAINLY OUT BEYOND THE BREAKWATER. ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...GIVEN EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS. DESPITE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE FORECAST IF NEEDED. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 030243 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 943 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013 .UPDATE...NEED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN ERN AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RAPIDLY FALL DURING THE EARLY EVENING. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN LATER IN THE NIGHT AS STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN IL WARM FRONT. WL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...AS WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IL SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT...SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN THICKENING CLOUDS. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS AROUND KMSN. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND ERN TAF SITES BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN. OTRW...SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR T-STORM TO AFFECT TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MRNG...WITH BETTER CHANCE LATER THU AS WARM FRONT SETTLES OVER CENTRAL WI. && .MARINE...MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGE FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWS LINGERING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO RECENT UPWELLING AND OFFSHORE WINDS. SHEBOYGAN LAKESHORE CONTINUES TO REPORT WATER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S. WITH UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN THE 60S EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTHWARD...ADDED FOG TO FORECAST. MAY BE SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONE WHERE WATER TEMPS REMAIN COOLEST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS TOWARD WISCONSIN. THE WARM FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AROUND 09Z AND REACH AROUND CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 12Z OR 15Z AND LINGER THERE. LEANED A BIT TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE AS WE SHOULD COOL OFF QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS ROLL IN. NOT THE BEST SET UP TONIGHT WITH THE MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET AND Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO OUR NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH CHANCE POPS SEEM FITTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THURSDAY MORNING ARE NEAR 2SD AND BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEY ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE...SO WE/LL LIKELY SEE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A MID LEVEL VORT MAX SLIDING THROUGH...UPPER DIVERGENCE....A LLJ FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST. CAPE VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE WEST TO 1000 J/KG IN THE EAST...WITH A LITTLE CAP. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 20KTS. SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET FEISTY. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FFORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AS THE ASSOCIATED JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. THE NAM SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING AND TO AROUND 35 KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. 850 MB WINDS ARE A LITTLE WEAKER ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME 850/700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. LIFTING ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION RESULTS IN ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 300/600 JOULES/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE HIGHER MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FRIDAY AS ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1600 J/KG. THE FAR SOUTH MAY GET FAR ENOUGH IN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON FOR DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO REDUCE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A LOW LEVEL CAP DEVELOPS. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ON THE NAM THE 12Z NAM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF WITH A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA BEFORE REACHING WESTERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY. THE 250 MB UPPER JET INCREASES TO AROUND 115 KNOTS AS IT LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE OCCURS FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY REACH SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AS THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM IOWA BACK TOWARDS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON THE 12Z NAM...AND THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS IT BEGINS TO OCCLUDE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTH CENTRAL WESTERN WISCONSIN IN THE DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. THE NAM KEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AND DOES NOT GENERATE ANY STORMS. ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER STRONG AT 1200 J/KG WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 45 KNOTS. HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY MORNING ON THE NAM WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW...AND HAS THE COLD FRONT AROUND 18 HOURS SLOWER. THEREFORE THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS QUESTIONABLE. LONG TERM... SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WISCONSIN...WITH THIS OCCURRING SUNDAY ON THE 12Z GFS AND SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE 00Z ECMWF. THEREFORE ANY DRY SLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY A STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE 00Z ECMWF STILL HAS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE UPPER LOW EXITING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...WHILE THE 12Z GFS PUSHES IT WELL INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS BRING A SOUTHWEST FLOW BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. BIGGEST PROBLEM WOULD BE ANY FROST POTENTIAL BUT IT APPEARS MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALREADY START TO MODERATE. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. WE COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 09Z AND 13Z...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. SOUNDINGS STILL HINT AT THIS BEING MORE LIKELY IN THE WESTERN SITES...NEAR MSN AND POSSIBLY UES. THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING ISN/T TOO HIGH. WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE ENTIRE DAY THURSDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT LINGERS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS INGREDIENTS BEGIN TO COME TOGETHER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 040934 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 334 AM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. EXPECT THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PASS THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WEAK SHEAR ZONE FROM WESTERN KS INTO IA. THIS WEAK FORCING CAUSING AREAS OF -SN OVER IOWA. CROSS SECTIONS HAVE PERSISTENT DRIER AREA IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE MID CLOUDS LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW PRODUCED BY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWING WAVE OVER WEST TX. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO TAKE NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS MO AND CENTRAL IL NEXT 24 HOURS. NAM REMAINS OUTLIER IN ITS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK. HOWEVER IMPRESSIVE LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DOES PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...FOCUSED ON FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FROM BOTH NAM AND GFS. 500-300MB LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TOUCHING 50 UNITS WHILE 10 TO 20 UNITS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. IN ADDITION...MID-LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CROSSES FAR SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT WITH DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HENCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. OTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT. DELTA-T OVERNIGHT INCREASES TO 15-16 DEGREES WITH INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 4K FEET. WIND DIRECTION IN THE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER SLOWLY BACKS OVERNIGHT BUT WL LINGER FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z RESULTING IN MODERATE OMEGA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OVER THE AREA...THINKING LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ADD SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM PARTS OF MILWAUKEE COUNTY TO EASTERN PARTS OF KENOSHA AND RACINE COUNTIES. THIN ICE COVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT OPEN WATER STARTS AT ABOUT 10 MILES OFF SHORE TO MID LAKE. WOULD THINK THIS WOULD CUT BACK SLIGHTLY ON SNOWFALL BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO HOIST WINTER WX ADVY FOR 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LATEST MODELS SUGGEST BOTH SYNOPTIC SCALE AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK. BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE FOCUSED UNDER A MEAN NORTHEAST FLOW FROM 1000 TO 850 MB. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...CUTTING OFF THE LAKE SNOW. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE MAINLY EAST BY AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY SLIDING BY TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUDS...BUT AT THE COST OF COLDER TEMPS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IF MODELS REMAIN THIS COLD...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTING WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS WILL THEN STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY...ONLY RECOVERING TO THE TEENS ON FRIDAY. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN FORECAST FOR SAT/SUN BASED ON THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WITH A SHORTWAVE. UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS LIKE MORE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY. MAY GET A FEW FLURRIES SHAKEN OUT OF THE THICKENING CLOUDS BUT EXPECT MAIN PERIOD OF SNOW TO MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY TO FALL TO LIFR LEVELS CLOSER TO LAKE MI WITH IFR FARTHER INLAND FOR A TIME. && .MARINE... HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY SHOWED THIN ICE COVERING ALMOST ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT BEYOND 5 NM...WITH THICKER ICE 5 TO 10 MILES EAST OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA...EXTENDING TO NORTHERN IL/IN NEARSHORE AREAS. WIDESPREAD ICE WILL LIMIT WAVE ACTION AND RESULTANT FREEZING SPRAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING THRU WED AFTN. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS DO TO THE WIDESPREAD ICE COVER OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ066-071-072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 060929 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 329 AM CST THU FEB 6 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. CORE OF COLDEST AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI ATTM. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR SURGE CAUSING INCREASING STRATUS FIELD OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...PER LATEST 11- 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. TRAJECTORY TAKES THIS STRATUS FIELD OVER MILWAUKEE METRO AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT STRATUS TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLD AIR SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WI AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM MID-LEVEL SHEAR ZONE ALSO SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE FROM LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL ALSO HELP RETARD CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THIS SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTED BY DECREASING TOTAL COLUMN CONDENSATE. CLEAR SKIES SHOULD THEN REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR TONIGHT...HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER DUE TO EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH AND RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH MANY WIND CHILLS FALLING TO BELOW 20 BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TONIGHT...COLDER START AND LACK OF CLOUDS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO FALL TO BETWEEN 3 AND 10 BELOW. THESE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO 20 TO 30 BELOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AND WILL BE ISSUED ONCE ONGOING WIND CHILL EXPIRES. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BUT HIGHS STILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP BACK BELOW ZERO AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING...BUT WARM BACK TO AROUND ZERO BY LATE IN THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. .SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM POPS WERE RAISED A BIT FOR FOR SATURDAY...AS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING...STRENGTH...AND FEATURE PLACEMENT ISSUES AMONG MODELS...BUT THE OVERALL PICTURE SEEMS TO BE COMING TOGETHER. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD...HIGH SNOW RATIO EVENT...WITH AVERAGE MODEL LIQUID OF A TENTH OF AN INCH SUGGESTING ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW. .SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY...LOOKS LIKE MORE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CAUSING PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS THROUGH THE DAY SO AFTER THIS MRNG...CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TNGT. && .MARINE...WL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WAVE FORECASTS DUE TO LIKELY AREAS OF ICE LINGERING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. NOT SURE WHAT STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY MAY HAVE DONE TO THE ICE COVER BUT MORE CLEARING TODAY SHOULD ALLOW UPDATED VIEW FROM NEW HI RES MODIS IMAGERY. WEST WIND GUSTS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTN AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTN AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047- 056>058-062>064-067>070. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 070936 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 336 AM CST FRI FEB 7 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. PATCHY MID-CLOUDS FROM WEAK SHEAR ZONE AND LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD DECREASE AND PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HENCE STILL TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL 5 DEGREES OR SO. WIND CHILLS SO FAR OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW MOST LOCATIONS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. HENCE WL CONTINUE ONGOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY. SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND WARMER START SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON READINGS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES OVER THURSDAY TMAX. CLOUDS SLOWER TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT DUE TO SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FALL OFF TO BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS. WENT LOWER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS MAY LOWER TO 20 TO 25 BELOW LATE TONIGHT IN SOME NORTHERN AREAS WITH WINDS AROUND 4- 5KTS. .SHORT TERM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SYSTEM AND SNOW TO THE SOUTH. CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE...BUT WEAK OMEGA WITHIN THE ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT...REFLECTED IN THE LOW LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAX OVER IL...PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONGEST OMEGA...ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10 MICROBARS/SEC...IS ABOVE THE DGZ ASSOCIATED WITH THE DCVA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. EVEN THE NAM...WITH THE MOST GENEROUS QPF ONLY ABLE TO GENERATE A SNOWFALL MAX OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA ...WITH 1 INCH IN THE FAR NORTH. USING A CONSENSUS/WPC BLEND YIELDS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND 1.5 TO 2.2 ACROSS THE SRN HALF. NOT ONLY A LATER START TO SNOW SATURDAY BUT A LATER END SO WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF RAPIDLY BY 06Z WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND WAVE. A BIT OF A NON- DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPS WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THEN FALLING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...WITH A FEW SPOTS GOING BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. GFS LOOKS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. WILL OPT FOR BLENDED TEMPERATURES THAT ALLOW HIGHS OF 15 TO NEAR 20...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME CONTINUES AS BROAD ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE UPPER FLOW TO THE WNW. LOWS FALLING INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURE MODERATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL...WITH 850/925MB TEMPS RISING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN STATES. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IS A RELATIVELY PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM INDICATING NO SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN THE BLENDED SOLUTION KEEPING WEDNESDAY DRY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... PATCHY MVFR CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL WI LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE KMSN MAY EXPERIENCE 1-2 HOUR PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH...EXPECT PATCHY MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHEAR ZONE TO EXIT SOUTHEAST WI EARLY THIS MRNG. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD WITH CIGS AND POSSIBLY VSBY LOWERING AT KMKE LATER SAT MRNG DUE TO APPROACHING -SN. && .MARINE... WILL EXPAND ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY TO INCLUDE ENTIRE NEARSHORE WATERS. ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY TO ALLOW OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH THE MID-LATE AFTN. HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM THURSDAY SHOWED WIDESPREAD THICKER ICE JUST OFFSHORE. LIKELY THIS ICE HAD BEEN BLOWN OFFSHORE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT AREAS OF THINNER ICE LIKELY TO REMAIN OR REFORM TOWARDS SHORE DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES. HENCE STILL EXPECT ICE TO LIMIT WAVE ACTION AND FREEZING SPRAY THREAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047- 051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...REM  FXUS63 KMKX 072136 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 336 PM CST FRI FEB 7 2014 .TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING...COMBINING WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY. HOW FAR TEMPS FALL DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS STAY AWAY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR BELOW ZERO TEMPS ACROSS MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY MAINLY STAY ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA...RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 BELOW. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR SATURDAY. A DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH PRETTY GOOD SATURATION AND DECENT LIFT VIA SOME WARM ADVECTION AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. MODELS NOT PAINTING OUT A LOT OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT EXPECTING A PRETTY EFFICIENT SNOW MAKER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 12 KFT. THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPS SUGGEST LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS OF ABOUT 25 TO 1...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 30 TO 1 GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. OVERALL...EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...TO ABOUT TWO AND HALF INCHES IN THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW SHOULD ARRIVE MID TO LATE MORNING...EXITING LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL PROBABLY SEE SNOW COVERED ROADS FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. .SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE LOW PRESSURE TROF WILL STILL BE HANGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE EVENING WITH SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LINGERING OVER THE EAST. MOISTURE IS STILL PREVALENT...SO WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS GOING ACROSS THE EAST HALF AT THE START OF THE EVENING...BUT DIMINISHING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...MORE WELL BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE HEADED OUR WAY...ON THE ORDER OF -2 TO -15 MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. ADD THE WIND AND WE/LL SEE WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW...SO MORE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EXPECTED. IT WILL BE DRY UNDER THE HIGH...SO WE HAVE THAT... .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. BETTER NEWS AS HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20S. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FINALLY GETTING IN HERE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 20S...AND UPPER 20S FOR THURSDAY. THE PATTERN LOOKS A BIT MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A WEAK LOOKING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...SO A CHANCE FOR SNOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THE SNOW EVENT FOR SATURDAY IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES...PARTICULARY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR WHEN THE SNOW ARRIVES. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL EARLY EVENING...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS NEARSHORE WATERS PRETTY MUCH COVERED IN ICE...WITH A SMALL GAP OF WATER POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH THE ICE A BIT OFFSHORE. BASICALLY...LITTLE TO NO WAVES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DAVIS  FXUS63 KMKX 150334 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 934 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014 .UPDATE...WEAK WIND SHIFT JUST TO THE NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO BRING A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO FAR EASTERN AREAS. LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES IF THAT... EXPECTED IN THE FAR EAST. KGRB VCP-31 SHOWING WEAK RETURNS NOW SAGGING INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST INTO SRN WI OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DECOUPLE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET SO WL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS...EXCEPT FAR EAST. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...IN GENERAL A VFR PERIOD UNTIL LATER SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING WHEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT TAF SITES. WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVING DOWN LAKESHORE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS TO ERN TAF SITES THROUGH 09Z OR SO. && .MARINE...HI RES VISIBLE MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWS THE THICKER ICE THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS HAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY MELTED DUE TO THE STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER STILL LIKELY TO BE SOME LINGERING THIN ICE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME ICE REFORMATION. HENCE WL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS FOR NOW. WEAK WIND SHIFT ABOUT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEAR SHORE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2014/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH SURFACE/850 TROUGH LOSES INFLUENCE IN ERN WI WITH SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY TAKING HOLD. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO SC WI BY 12Z. 925 TEMPS DROP INTO THE -11 TO -15C RANGE. LOWS IN MANY LOCALES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM UNEVENTFUL MORNING WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND SURFACE/850 RIDGING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AS SURFACE/850 TROUGH APPROACHES SRN WI. 500 MILLIBAR DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION INCREASES INTO SW WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. AXIS OF 250 MILLIBAR JET CORE WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST THOUGH SOME HINTS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CLIPPING THE FAR SOUTH. MODELS AGREE ON SPREADING SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE SW 1/2 OF THE CWA. 925 TEMPS MODIFY TO -9 TO -11C. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A SMIDGE COOLER THAN THE 925 TECHNIQUE WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING AND INCREASING CLOUDS. SO UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S LOOK MORE LIKELY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A 1010 MB SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL IA AT 00Z SUN WILL WEAKEN AND TRACK TO THE WRN PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z SUN. THE LGT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING AND DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMS FOR SAT AND SAT NT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1/2 INCH OVER EAST CENTRAL WI TO NEARLY 2 INCHES SW OF MADISON. SOME CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR TOWARD SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF SRN WI. A SFC RIDGE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL ON SUNDAY BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING. FOR SUN NT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SET TO TRACK FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH THAT IS ALREADY PRESENT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM MO TO NRN IN WITH THE STENGTHENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM CENTRAL IL TO NEAR LAKE ERIE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PHASED WITH ANOTHER MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN GRTLKS DURING THIS PERIOD. IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION INCLUDING AT THE JET LEVEL IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WHILE THE MOST FOCUSED FRONTOGENESIS AND HIGHER QPF REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF WI. MOSTLY SNOW IS ANTICIPATED WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN FAR SRN WI. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMS AT THIS TIME RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES. IF GREATER DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW CAN OCCUR...THEN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVERSELY...IF THE GFS IS MORE CORRECT ON KEEPING THE SHORTWAVE MORE NWD AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...THEN LESS SNOW WOULD OCCUR. LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM ZONAL FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE MONDAY SYSTEM AND THEN TRANSITION TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN USA. SWLY WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S FOR TUE WITH HIGH TEMPS REMAINING WELL INTO THE 30S WITH SOME 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE NT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY FOLLOW...BUT SLY WINDS WILL RETURN FOR WED AFT. CYCLOGENESIS...POSSIBLY STRONG...IS THEN EXPECTED AS THE WRN USA UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG DEEPENING LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO NRN WI ON THU. SOME MIXED PCPN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN WED NT BUT RAIN WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 50S FOR THU. QUIET WX WITHIN A COL FOR FRI. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. QUIET AND VFR CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGING DOMINATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING SNOW TO OUR WEST THROUGH 18Z. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SC WI EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH SNOW ARRIVING INTO SE WI LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILL WRAP UP BY 6Z OR SO. LOOKS LIKE AROUND AN INCH IN THE EAST WITH UP TO 2 INCHES SW OF KMSN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 190316 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 916 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014 .UPDATE...CALM WINDS AND TEMPORARY CLEARING HAS ALLOWED KSBM TO PLUMMET TO 20F THIS EVENING. AS WINDS AND CLOUDS INCREASE BEHIND WEAK TROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES. ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG AT KSBM BUT WEBCAMS SHOW IT IS VERY LOCALIZED. HENCE WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG WITH CLOUDS...WL HOLD OFF ON FOG MENTION. DESPITE ONLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ENHANCED FORCING FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET PRODUCING SMALL AREA OF -RA OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MN/IA BORDER AREA. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST SO BROUGHT A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES INTO THE WEST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z. IF DBZ AREA HOLDS TOGETHER WL BUMP UP TO ISOLD -SHSN/-SHRA MENTION IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALLOWED WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HENCE CANCELLED SMALL CRAFT ADVY EARLY. CONCERN INCREASES IN REGARDS TO STRONG LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT. EXTREMELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO STORM FORCE /48 KNOTS/FOR A FEW HOURS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z/FRI. HI RES MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF ICE REDEVELOPMENT/THICKENING OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2014/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH OVERALL...QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED. QUICK MOVING SFC TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. SAID SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVERHEAD BY 00Z WED. MSLP PRESSURE RISES BEGIN SOON AFTER IN THE MID/LATE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SOUTH AND BY 18Z IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER E MO/SW IL...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SFC WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE IN WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND RH MODEL LAYERS SHOW DECENT SATURATION...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 700-500 HPA. SO INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY DAYBREAK/SHORTLY THEREAFTER. FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT WITH DRY AIR IN LOW-LEVELS...DON\T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING REACHING THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING AS WARM OF TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AS WE SAW TODAY GIVEN 925 HPA TEMPERATURES...THOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE DECENT. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 30S THOUGH FEW READINGS MAY REACH AROUND 40 F. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WED NT WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THAT REGION. THE UPPER WAVE WILL THEN LIFT NEWD WITH STRONG DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NNEWD ACROSS IL AND ERN WI. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN FROM 993 MB TO NEARLY 970 MB AS IT OCCLUDES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG WSWLY WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER...WILL LIKELY RESULT THU NT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OF SRN WI. THE INITIAL ROUND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING PCPN INTO FAR SRN WI LATE WED NT INTO THU AM. SFC TEMPS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM. FROST HOWEVER IS DEEP IN THE GROUND AND FREEZING MAY OCCUR ON ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. THUS SOME ICING IS EXPECTED THU AM. AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FOR THE AFTERNOON...MDT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY ICING OVER WITH. A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE FAR WRN CWA WHERE TEMPS ARE COLDER ALOFT. THE DRY SLOT WILL ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW VIA MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY THEN OCCUR THU NT. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS WOULD CERTAINLY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSSIBLY NEEDED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON FRIDAY BUT A CLIPPER LOW WILL PASS FROM IA INTO IL THROUGH FRI NT. THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW MAY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW FRI NT. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN ONTARIO CANADA MAINTAINING NWLY WINDS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW MON NT AND TUE. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. GIVEN RH PROFILES AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...ANTICIPATE INCREASING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE IA AND AS IT PUSHES EAST WILL SEE WINDS AT TAF SITES DECREASE. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH REMOVED LLWS AT KMSN...LLWS STILL PRESENT IN THE OTHER THREE TAF SITES GIVEN SUPPORT...BASED OFF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL HI-RES WIND FIELDS. MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES AND IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 04Z WED/10 PM CST TONIGHT. VIS SAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD ICE STILL IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES AWAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE STATE...WINDS WILL BEGIN SHIFTING FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...99 WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...99  FXUS63 KMKX 220928 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 328 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. TODAYS FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSES ON THREAT OF --SN OVER FAR SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WIND PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS WEAK UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE/IA AREA MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. KFSD 88D HAS SMALL AREAS OF DBZ EXCEEDING 30 JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE RADAR...LIKELY ASSOCD WITH -SN REACHING GROUND. 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES LIE ACROSS SRN WI AND THE REGION...HOWEVER WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON 285 THETA SURFACE REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE IL BORDER THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALSO STAYS JUST TO THE SOUTH. FEW FLURRIES COULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH...BUT FOR NOW WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST AND BEEF UP THE CLOUDS FOR A TIME OVER THE SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 20S. GUSTINESS TO PERSIST TODAY MOST AREAS DUE TO LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL MIXINESS. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME MIXINESS IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE ZERO TO 10 ABOVE RANGE. WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 13 BELOW. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A PRONOUNCED ELONGATED VORT AXIS. COLDER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE REINFORCED WITH PERSISTENT WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 925 MILLIBARS. WITH RIDGE AXIS STILL IN THE PLAINS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING GRADIENT TO KEEP A STEADY WEST BREEZE IN PLACE. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SHIFTS NORTHEAST WITH BRIEF AND BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING INTO THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER EAST SO LIGHTER WIND REGIME. MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK FURTHER ON PRECIP INTO SW CWA. THE 00Z ECMWF THE LATEST TO GO THE SLOWER ROUTE. SO WILL GO DRY CWA WIDE. .MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO MOVE ACROSS SRN WI WITH MODERATE UPTICK IN 700-300 MILLIBAR Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ISENTROPIC FORCING DOES NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE AND UPPER JET CORE POSITIONED WITH MORE OF A LEFT REAR PLACEMENT FOR SRN WI. MOISTURE INFLUX NOT GREAT EITHER...SO WILL KEEP AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FAVORING MORE THE GEM/GFS QPF NUMBERS. NAM LOOKS TOO DRY...IN FACT NAM IS COMPLETELY DRY AT THIS POINT. ECMWF LOOKS TOO GENEROUS ON QPF. EXPECTING A HALF INCH FOR MOST LOCALES. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD ADVECTION DOMINATES WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -20 TO -25C THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONCERNED ABOUT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY SCENARIO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH 925 TEMPS DROPPING TO -22 TO -24C WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COLDER GUIDANCE BUT ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAIRLY MIXED WITH 925 WINDS RUNNING 20-30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOULD SEE SUBZERO LOWS CWA WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW THE -20F THRESHOLD TUE NGT/WED MRNG. SHORTWAVE RIDES TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. BRIEF 850 WAA WITH STG 50 KNOT SIGNAL SHOWING UP. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 10 ABOVE. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SO BRISK WITH BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW MODELS DIVERGE THIS PERIOD. GFS BRINGS A QUICK REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THURSDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO A WAA REGIME WITH PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY. MEANWHILE ECMWF DELAYS THE COLD BLAST UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BUT KEEPS THE DRY LOOK. WILL STICK WITH THE ALLBLEND APPROACH AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/....AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AT TAF SITES AS WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH BUT ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY...BUT STILL SOME GUSTINESS WILL CONTINUE. && .MARINE...LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS LIKELY TO EXCEED 22 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONES. HENCE WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY. HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM FRIDAY SHOWS THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS HAVE CAUSED THE THICKER ICE AREAS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND MELT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER THE RETURN OF COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST AREAS OF THIN ICE TO REFORM. WILL ADD SOME FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS TO THIS NEARSHORE FORECAST BUT WILL TEMPER HEIGHTS DUE TO LIKELY AREAS OF THIN ICE. REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 230922 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 322 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH. COLD...DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZES RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW. SLIGHT INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE SPOKE ROTATES AROUND HUDSON BAY AREA UPPER LOW. WEAK PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI AND CLIPS NORTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING AND SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUD INCREASE INTO NORTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MIXINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORT SHEAR ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST. VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. ALL THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON KEEPING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO OUR WEST. SO THE DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. CORE OF COLDEST 850 TEMPS NUDGE NORTHEAST AS WELL WITH 850 RIDGE NUDGING CLOSER. SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER WHICH SLACKENS GRADIENT. WINDS EASE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 925 TEMPS AROUND -12 TO -15C WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. .MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. GFS HAS TRENDED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF HAS DROPPED QPF FROM EARLIER RUNS. QPF NUMBERS VARY FROM TRACE/NEAR NIL ON THE NAM AND GFS TO NEAR 0.02 ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER. SO CAME UP WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.2 IN THE NORTHEAST TO UP TO 0.8 IN IN THE PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTH...THOUGH THAT MAY BE TOO ROBUST GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYS END. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO 20-23C WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SETTING UP. WHILE SOME EASING OF GRADIENT TOWARDS MORNING...STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A 10 KNOT WIND IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH A BIT HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE EAST. TEMPS WON/T DROP LIKE IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL SETUP...BUT THE PURE ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DROPS IN TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. TRENDED TEMPS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE LEARNING MORE TOWARDS A MIX OF ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED AND ALLBLEND. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE DRIER AND COLDER ECMWF IS PREFERRED THOUGH GFS STILL SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH WITH MODIFIED TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW STUCK WITH ALLBLEND. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS LOOK LESS OF A FACTOR THIS PERIOD...SO WHILE LIKELY STILL QUITE CHILLY...NOT AS BAD AS PRIOR WITH CORE OF HIGH DRAWING CLOSER. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW CU MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVE. && .MARINE...LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SATURDAY SHOWS ALL OF THE THICKER ICE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND MID-LAKE WATERS HAS BROKEN UP DUE TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER SOME THIN ICE HAS REFORMED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE AND OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM KENOSHA NORTH TO EAST OF MILWAUKEE AND AROUND PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO GET REINFORCED...EXPECT MORE ICE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEK. WEST WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED MOSTLY BELOW 22 KNOTS HENCE WL CANCEL ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS AND IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONE /LMZ643/. HOWEVER BORDERLINE SITUATION WITH LIMITED CRAFT ON WATER DUE TO PATCHY ICE...SO WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WL MENTION OCNL G25KTS IN NSH HOWEVER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 231606 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014 .UPDATE...NO CHANGE TO TODAY\S FORECAST. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LATEST MODELS STILL INDICATE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 20S. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2014/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SAGS SOUTH. COLD...DRY AIR IN PLACE TODAY WITH 85H TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY BREEZES RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW. SLIGHT INCREASE IN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE SPOKE ROTATES AROUND HUDSON BAY AREA UPPER LOW. WEAK PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI AND CLIPS NORTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. WEAK FORCING AND SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY CAUSE SOME CLOUD INCREASE INTO NORTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. HOWEVER PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MIXINESS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORT SHEAR ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST. VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING PLAINS SHORTWAVE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. ALL THE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON KEEPING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO OUR WEST. SO THE DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. CORE OF COLDEST 850 TEMPS NUDGE NORTHEAST AS WELL WITH 850 RIDGE NUDGING CLOSER. SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER WHICH SLACKENS GRADIENT. WINDS EASE A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 925 TEMPS AROUND -12 TO -15C WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE VORTICITY ADVECTION. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LIMITED MOISTURE. GFS HAS TRENDED PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF HAS DROPPED QPF FROM EARLIER RUNS. QPF NUMBERS VARY FROM TRACE/NEAR NIL ON THE NAM AND GFS TO NEAR 0.02 ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER. SO CAME UP WITH ANYWHERE FROM 0.2 IN THE NORTHEAST TO UP TO 0.8 IN IN THE PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTH...THOUGH THAT MAY BE TOO ROBUST GIVEN THE MODEL TRENDS. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY DAYS END. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO 20-23C WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SETTING UP. WHILE SOME EASING OF GRADIENT TOWARDS MORNING...STILL LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A 10 KNOT WIND IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH A BIT HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE EAST. TEMPS WON/T DROP LIKE IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL SETUP...BUT THE PURE ADVECTION OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DROPS IN TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. TRENDED TEMPS COLDER THAN GUIDANCE LEARNING MORE TOWARDS A MIX OF ECMWF BIAS CORRECTED AND ALLBLEND. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE DRIER AND COLDER ECMWF IS PREFERRED THOUGH GFS STILL SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH WITH MODIFIED TEMPS AND LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT MORE FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW STUCK WITH ALLBLEND. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS LOOK LESS OF A FACTOR THIS PERIOD...SO WHILE LIKELY STILL QUITE CHILLY...NOT AS BAD AS PRIOR WITH CORE OF HIGH DRAWING CLOSER. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FEW CU MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTN BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVE. MARINE...LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SATURDAY SHOWS ALL OF THE THICKER ICE OVER THE NEARSHORE AND MID-LAKE WATERS HAS BROKEN UP DUE TO THE RECENT WARMER TEMPS AND HIGH WINDS. HOWEVER SOME THIN ICE HAS REFORMED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEAR SHORE AND OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM KENOSHA NORTH TO EAST OF MILWAUKEE AND AROUND PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN. WITH THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO GET REINFORCED...EXPECT MORE ICE DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEK. WEST WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED MOSTLY BELOW 22 KNOTS HENCE WL CANCEL ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS AND IN NORTHERN MARINE ZONE /LMZ643/. HOWEVER BORDERLINE SITUATION WITH LIMITED CRAFT ON WATER DUE TO PATCHY ICE...SO WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING NEW SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WL MENTION OCNL G25KTS IN NSH HOWEVER. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SM/DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 240927 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 327 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. HENCE STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN EXPECTED WITH SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY LESS SFC WIND MIXING. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON THREAT FOR -SN. UPSTREAM WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CARRIES THIS FEATURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NRN IL/SRN WI REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI OCCURS IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER INITIAL SURGE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT GOES INTO MOISTENING MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...BETTER FORCING HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE QPF DUE TO THIS DISJOINTEDNESS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND LAYER RH. SNOW LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 1 SO TRACE QPF MAY END UP PRODUCING UP TO ONE HALF INCH SNOWFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 20-23C WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SETTING UP...ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A 998MB OR SO LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. AN ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. .THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RADIATIONAL SETUP OF THE WEEK FOR RECORDS TO FALL. MEXMOS/GFS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR -20 TO -25 IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA. WILL LOWER TEMPS FROM THE ALLBLEND BUT NOT GOING THAT LOW...AT LEAST NOT YET ANYWAYS. SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER AND WINDS ARE PROGGD TO BE LIGHTER THAN THE PRIOR TWO NIGHTS... SO COLDEST AIR TEMPS LIKELY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY MORE QUESTIONABLE. .FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX PUTS SRN WI IN A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT POSITION. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH BEST VORT ACTION NORTH. LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED ON ECMWF. WHILE SOUNDINGS START OF QUITE DRY THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTENING VIA WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO MOISTEN THINGS UP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH GFS TO BRING QPF INTO SRN WI FOR PARTS OF FRI/FRI EVE. SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND POPS ON THIS. .SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. ECMWF COLDER ON THE 925 TEMPS WITH READINGS OF -21 TO -26C. GFS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER. 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS NRN WI OR U.P. WENT WITH A DRY DAY WITH ALLBLEND POPS LOOKING GOOD IN THIS REGARD. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE TRENDING A LOW WELL SOUTH OF HERE THOUGH THE CWA IS BRUSHED WITH SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH STILL LOOKS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH A RENEWED STRONG JET CORE APPROACHES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT RETURNS. AGAIN...WILL GO WITH THE FAIRLY SMALL ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY WITH PATCHY -SN AND FLURRIES SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...AFT 03Z THROUGH 12Z. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT ENOUGH WEAK FORCING TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE IN ICE FREE AREAS. NEW HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN AND REFORM TODAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 241740 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1140 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014 .UPDATE... FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. LIGHT SNOW IS STILL PROBABLE FOR TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM...AS A SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BEST CHANCE OF THE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. BEST CHANCE FOR THE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR ACCUMULATION IS SOUTH OF MSN AND MKE. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR WITH THE SNOW IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE... WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON SINCE WIND GUSTS ARE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN AND REFORM TODAY. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST MON FEB 24 2014/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR HAS SETTLED OVER SOUTHERN WI IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE. HENCE STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN EXPECTED WITH SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY LESS SFC WIND MIXING. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE SLIDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON THREAT FOR -SN. UPSTREAM WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CARRIES THIS FEATURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/NRN IL/SRN WI REGION TONIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING OVER SOUTHERN WI OCCURS IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER INITIAL SURGE OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT GOES INTO MOISTENING MID LEVELS. BY THE TIME LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...BETTER FORCING HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE QPF DUE TO THIS DISJOINTEDNESS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND LAYER RH. SNOW LIQUID RATIOS REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 1 SO TRACE QPF MAY END UP PRODUCING UP TO ONE HALF INCH SNOWFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH WITH TROUGH SHIFTING EAST...COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN. DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 925 TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEADY WNW WIND WILL ONLY ADD TO THE CHILLY TEMPS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BITTER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO POUR IN. 925 TEMPS DROP TO MINUS 20-23C WITH 925 WINDS 20-30 KNOTS. SO EXPECTING SOME PRETTY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SETTING UP...ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL MAKE IT QUITE BITTER WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGH DROPS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SO WINDS WON/T REST MUCH AT ALL AS THE SOUTHWEST REGIME AND WAA SETS UP AHEAD OF A 998MB OR SO LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SURFACE TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO GET TOO MUCH OF A KICK WITH MUCH OF THE WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED LAYER REMAINING FAIRLY SHALLOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. NORTHWEST WINDS AND 925 TEMPS DROPPING BACK BELOW -20C ARRIVE. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHT FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN. AN ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY. THURSDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RADIATIONAL SETUP OF THE WEEK FOR RECORDS TO FALL. MEXMOS/GFS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE SOLUTIONS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR -20 TO -25 IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CWA. WILL LOWER TEMPS FROM THE ALLBLEND BUT NOT GOING THAT LOW...AT LEAST NOT YET ANYWAYS. SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES CLOSER AND WINDS ARE PROGGD TO BE LIGHTER THAN THE PRIOR TWO NIGHTS... SO COLDEST AIR TEMPS LIKELY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY MORE QUESTIONABLE. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX PUTS SRN WI IN A FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT POSITION. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH BEST VORT ACTION NORTH. LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MORE PRONOUNCED ON ECMWF. WHILE SOUNDINGS START OF QUITE DRY THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTENING VIA WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO MOISTEN THINGS UP ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH GFS TO BRING QPF INTO SRN WI FOR PARTS OF FRI/FRI EVE. SO WENT WITH ALLBLEND POPS ON THIS. SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. ECMWF COLDER ON THE 925 TEMPS WITH READINGS OF -21 TO -26C. GFS ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES WARMER. 500 MILLIBAR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS NRN WI OR U.P. WENT WITH A DRY DAY WITH ALLBLEND POPS LOOKING GOOD IN THIS REGARD. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW AT THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE TRENDING A LOW WELL SOUTH OF HERE THOUGH THE CWA IS BRUSHED WITH SOME LIGHT QPF AT TIMES. SURFACE HIGH STILL LOOKS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH A RENEWED STRONG JET CORE APPROACHES AND WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT RETURNS. AGAIN...WILL GO WITH THE FAIRLY SMALL ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS TIME. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR TODAY WITH PATCHY -SN AND FLURRIES SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT...AFT 03Z THROUGH 12Z. ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT BUT ENOUGH WEAK FORCING TO LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT. MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AWAY FROM SHORE IN ICE FREE AREAS. NEW HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM SUNDAY SHOWS ICE REFORMING AND THICKENING OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND SHEBOYGAN. LIGHTER WINDS AND COLD TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW ICE TO THICKEN AND REFORM TODAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 242122 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 322 PM CST MON FEB 24 2014 .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING DUE TO THE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN 03Z TO 09Z WHICH WILL HELP TO MOISTEN THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BY THE TIME LOW LEVELS SATURATE...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING IN. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW AND IT COULD END UP BEING JUST FLURRIES OR NOTHING AT ALL. THUS...DID NOT INCREASE POPS BEYOND CHANCE CATEGORY IN FAR SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. IF THE SNOW DOES ACCUMULATE...IT WILL ONLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES... BUT STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVERNIGHT. .TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN WI BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT CLIPPER. EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A NOTCH LOWER THAN TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BRISK WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND ZERO TO 5 BELOW THROUGH THE DAY. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING OUT QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDS DEEP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD STILL BE IN SOME GRADIENT FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SO WE WON/T SEE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH THE ELEVATED WINDS. THE GFS IS LOOKING TOO COLD...AND HAS BEEN RUNNING COLD LATELY...DROPPING LOWS TO -15 AT KMSN FOR WED MORNING. THE BULK OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER. SO WILL USE MORE OF A CONSENSUS HERE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WIND EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DROP TO 20 TO 30 BELOW AND IF THIS HOLDS...WE/LL BE ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...THAT LOW REACHES NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR BY EVENING. THIS WILL PUT US IN AN EVEN TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW THAT BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. WE COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH. THE RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION IS RATHER STRONG. THIS COUPLED WITH LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON TO RISE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT PRETTY DARN COLD STILL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WIND CHILL. HIGHS GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 10 ABOVE...GIVE OR TAKE. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. MOISTURE WILL BE LOW...BUT ISENTROPIC CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST WE COULD GET SOME FLURRIES GIVEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD BE QUICK...JUST DURING THE EVENING. THEN COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN...BUT TEMPS WON/T BE QUITE AS COLD AS WED MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT WINDS AND WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN DROP TO 15 TO 25 BELOW...MAYBE A TOUCH COLDER. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THIS MIGHT BE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIOD OF THE WEEK AHEAD...MAINLY FOR WHAT THE GFS THINKS LOWS WILL DO FRIDAY MORNING. IT HAS LATCHED ON HARD TO A CLASSIC RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO WITH LOWS DROPPING TO 28 BELOW AT MADISON AND 36 BELOW ZERO AT LONE ROCK. WE SHOULD HAVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS START TO ROLL IN TOWARD MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION FLOW TAKES SHAPE UPSTREAM. THE GFS IS ALONE ON THIS EXTREME COLD SOLUTION AND IT WOULD ECLIPSE ANYTHING WE/VE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. SO...HAVE MOSTLY DISCARDED IT AND WILL STICK CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MORE MODERATE MODELS. THE WARM ADVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE IS UP AROUND 850-700MB AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROF CLIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN IS WEAK AND NONDESCRIPT WITH MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE COLD CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF WISCONSIN AGAIN ON SUNDAY COULD BRING THE AREA MORE LIGHT SNOW...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT... WITH A CHANCE OF BRUSHING FAR SOUTHERN WI MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. SNOW WILL BE BATTLING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF MSN AND MKE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE SNOW IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON BRISK WEST WINDS. && .MARINE... THE HI RES MODIS VISIBLE IMAGE FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS ICE OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM JUST NORTH OF MILWAUKEE SOUTH TO KENOSHA. MORE AREAS OF ICE WERE NOTED AROUND SHEBOYGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. ONE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT PAIR OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS  FXUS63 KMKX 111708 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1208 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .UPDATE...AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA PER RADAR IMAGERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAIN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN BAND OF 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ALSO HELPING OUT. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THIS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS BAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL STILL AFFECT THE EVENING RUSH HOUR PERIOD IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THIS BAND BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW AS IT LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE EVENING...AND IN KENOSHA COUNTY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION...CAUSING THE FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 12Z MODELS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KENOSHA COUNTY TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOT MORE QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING LITTLE TO NONE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AMOUNTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...LEANING TOWARD NOT ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...AS WET NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIGHT RAIN MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN BY 20Z TO 21Z TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME ALL LIGHT SNOW BY 02Z TO 03Z WEDNESDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 04Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AT MADISON...AROUND 07Z AT WAUKESHA/MILWAUKEE...AND UNTIL AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY AT KENOSHA. LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE EASTERN SITES...AND UNDER 1 INCH AT MADISON. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTH AND REMAINING GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT MADISON. NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS FROM ANY BLOWING SNOW...AS THE SNOW WILL BE THE WET AND HEAVY TYPE. && .MARINE...GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 03Z TO 17Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE GALE WARNING PERIOD. ICE COVER HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS PER RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO...EXPECT HIGH WAVES UP TO 5 TO 10 FEET TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN. HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. WILL FOLLOW CONSENSUS OF 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND CANADIAN IN KEEPING STRONGEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO THE SOUTH OF WI TONIGHT. 00Z NAM STRONG OUTLIER DUE TO ITS MUCH DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT. THIS HAS OCCURRED EARLIER IN THE WINTER AS WELL WITH NAM GUIDANCE. 00Z NAM ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH COUPLED JET OVER SOUTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT WHILE ECMWF AND GFS SOUTH IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL. FORTUNATELY 06Z NAM APPEARS TO HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. STRONG AREA OF LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET. HENCE WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS TODAY. COLDER...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI ON INCREASING NORTH WINDS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. TOP- DOWN METHOD AND CRITICAL THICKNESS FAVOR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTN. NOT IMPOSSIBLE AN ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTH BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO MELT DURING THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING...THE LIGHT MIXED PRECIP SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH THE EMPHASIS SHIFTING TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERN WI LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM. MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE SN SPREADS BACK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST WI LATER TONIGHT. FAR SOUTHEAST MAY END UP GETTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE NOW OPEN WATERS OF THE NEARSHORE WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH TO AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS AFT 05Z. DAY SHIFT WL NEED TO CONTEMPLATE WHETHER A WINTER WX ADVY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED.COMING SOON. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BLUSTERY DAY SHAPING UP WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MODELS KEYING MORE ON LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW. MAIN CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. 850 TEMPS DROP TO - 16C TO -18C CREATING MORE THAN FAVORABLE DELTA-T. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER FETCH...NNE IN THE LOW LAYERS IN THE MORNING BUT INVERSION HEIGHT QUITE LOW AND MORE BORDERLINE DELTA-T THEN. DURING THE AFTERNOON WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE NNW THOUGH DELTA-T BECOMES EXTREMELY FAVORABLE THEN WITH HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEY THE POP FORECAST ON LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOWS AND NOT JUMP ON LAKE EFFECT JUST YET. TEMPS IN MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT PAST 20 SO WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS QUITE LIKELY. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER FLOW BECOMES BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION SETTING UP ONCE AGAIN. 12Z ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH 925 TEMPS WARMING BACK ABV 0C...WHILE THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING 925 TEMPS AOB 0C. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE BETTER ADIABATIC OMEGA COINCIDES WITH LOWERING OF CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE AT 12Z. WITH 850 FRONT PASSING THROUGH COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY. SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE BETTER TO THE NORTH SO WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST INTACT. GFS SHOWS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING THAN THE GFS...SO A BLENDED 925 TEMP APPROACH STILL SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 40S. SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE WILL BE A KEY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHSN LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW. 850 TEMPS DROP OFF INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE. HOWEVER UPPER FLOW IS CYCLONIC. ECMWF SHOWS A BETTER SHORTWAVE SOUTHWEST OF WI KEEPING PRECIP JUST SOUTH. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. KEPT THE ALLBLEND SLIGHT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW WARM ADVECTION SIGNAL ONCE AGAIN. ECMWF ABOUT 4-5C WARMER THAN THE GFS. PATTERN SUGGESTS DRY WX FOR SRN WI. ECMWF SHOWS WAA INDUCED PCPN ACRS PARTS OF NRN WI...WHILE THE GFS IS COMPLETELY DRY...SO QUIET ALLBLEND POPS LOOK OK AT THIS POINT. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MVFR AND LIKELY LOWER FOR A TIME. AREA OF -RA WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY AND TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF -SN TONIGHT. COMBINATION OF -SN AND STRONG WINDS WL LIKELY CREATE LOW VSBYS AT KENW TNGT. MARINE...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST HIGH RES VISIBLE IMAGE FROM TUE SHOWS MUCH OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAVE BEEN CLEARED OF ICE DUE TO THE RECENT STRONGER OFFSHORE WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HENCE OPEN WATERS WILL CREATE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS TO MIX DOWN TO SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MRNG. HENCE WL POST GALE WARNING WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST WED AFTN AND EVE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 112028 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 328 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER RADAR IMAGERY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN BAND OF 850 MB TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK ALSO HELPING OUT. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS AND 12Z SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TAKING THIS BAND OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THIS BAND SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD...COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS MAY AFFECT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENING RUSH HOUR PERIOD IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THIS BAND BECOMES ALL LIGHT SNOW AS IT LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY MID EVENING...AND IN KENOSHA COUNTY THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION...CAUSING THE FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. 12Z MODELS SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST QPF WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KENOSHA COUNTY TONIGHT. GFS SHOWS A LOT MORE QPF IN THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...WITH THE NAM SHOWING LITTLE TO NONE. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AMOUNTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING A 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES AT THIS TIME...AS WET NATURE OF SNOW SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 6 MILES AT WORST. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH THE STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN BEHIND THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE 12Z NAM SATURATES AT 700 MB LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT MIDNIGHT LOWS AND THEN A SLOW RISE. MOST MODELS BRING A FEW HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING BUT LASTS A BIT LONGER OVER THE FAR EAST. THE 285 KELVIN LAYER SHOWS MODERATE LIFT AND SATURATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF ZERO. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BEFORE THICKNESS AND 850 TEMPERATURES WARM. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD START MILD AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THEN COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON. .LONG TERM... .FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DROPS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB RH IS HIGH AND EXPECT A STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A MORE EAST WEST STRUCTURE...WHILE THE 12Z GFS STILL HAS THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING ON MONDAY. .TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION ON THE GFS...BUT FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE 00Z ECMWF. THICKNESS VALUES SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES INTO EARLY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED WITH THE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME ALL LIGHT SNOW. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AROUND ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND 04Z TO 05Z WEDNESDAY AT MADISON...AROUND 07Z AT WAUKESHA/MILWAUKEE...AND UNTIL AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY AT KENOSHA. LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THE EASTERN SITES...AND UNDER 1 INCH AT MADISON. NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTH AND REMAINING GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 30 TO 33 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE EASTERN SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AT MADISON. NOT EXPECTING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 6 MILES FROM ANY BLOWING SNOW...AS THE SNOW WILL BE THE WET AND HEAVY TYPE. && .MARINE... GALE WARNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 03Z TO 17Z WEDNESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE GALE WARNING PERIOD. ICE COVER HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES THE PAST FEW DAYS PER RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. SO...EXPECT HIGH WAVES UP TO 5 TO 10 FEET TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN. HIGH WAVES WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THIS TIME. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ  FXUS63 KMKX 040830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MOST OF UPSTREAM LIGHT DBZ OVER SRN ND/NRN SD NOT REACHING GROUND...HOWEVER A FEW -SHRA WITH DBZ EXCEEDING 35 LIKELY REACHING SFC. WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS SRN MN TOWARD SRN WI THIS MRNG. SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND FEED OF DRIER AIR OVER SRN WI EXPECTED TO DRY UP MOST OF THESE SHRA AS THEY PROGRESS INTO SRN WI. HENCE WL DROP POPS TO SCHC WITH A FEW SPRINKLES LIKELY IN THE SW CWA LATER THIS MRNG. DESPITE WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TODAY...SFC DEWPTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S DURING THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN NORTHEAST AT THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AFTER 16Z WHICH WILL HALT DIURNAL TEMP RISE. MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP IMAGERY FROM SATURDAY MEASURED LAKE MI WATER TEMP REMAINING IN THE LOW 40S. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE NORHERN GTLAKES. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. BOTH GFS AND NAM 300 THETA SURFACE SHOWS INCREASING LATE NIGHT ISENTROPIC OMEGA WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10MB. ENOUGH WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT ADDING SMALL POPS TO MOST AREAS LATER TONIGHT. .SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. KEPT LOW POPS FOR SHOWERS GOING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...WITH PASSING SHEARED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...SO COULD END UP BEING SPRINKLES. NAM/ECMWF MODELS SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COOL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND. PATTERN SHIFT THEN OCCURS...AS 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE AREA. FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AT 850 MB...AND RESULT IN INCREASING POPS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY POPS AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...THEN DIFFER AFTERWARDS. THEY PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE FOCUSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS NORTHWARD. WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST WELL INLAND...WITH ONSHORE WINDS KEEPING LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT 12Z THURSDAY INTO NORTHWEST IOWA OR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF THE AREA. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA AS WELL. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...AS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WARM TEMPERATURES MAY CRACK 80 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. SURFACE LOW THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT THEN SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE ECMWF...AND FRIDAY ON THE GFS. MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THE GFS...WITH THE ECMWF MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SHOWN ON GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MEAN LAYER CAPES THURSDAY. CIPS ANALOGS AND GFS CWASP PRODUCT SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. MAIN ISSUES WILL BE TIMING OF FRONT...IF CAP WILL ERODE ENOUGH...AND WHERE THE MAIN 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM GOES. SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS DO NOT SEEM TO PAN OUT UNLESS THE 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS THROUGH OR CLOSE TO THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF THEN DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. THUS...USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MAY BE A FEW -SHRA IN THE AREA AFT 06Z/MON. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN EAST TO NORTHEAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATE THIS MRNG AND AFTN. && .MARINE... WL LIKELY BE A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN ZONES BEHIND WEAK COLD FRONT WITH STRONGEST WIND GUSTS REMAINING IN NORTHERN ZONES. DUE TO BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 22 KNOTS EXPECTED...WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVY THIS MRNG BUT ANY SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE AFTER 16Z AND THEN REMAIN E TO NE THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES TO THE NORTH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 120831 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MRNG MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WI...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND FORCING. HENCE FORCED TO LOWER CONFIDENCE TO LOW FOR TODAY. LEANING TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HAVING ISSUES WITH QPF VERIFICATION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT CARE FOR NAM HANDLING OF UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SO WL USE MORE OF A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SCT-BKN STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN WI...HOWEVER INCREASE IN STRATUS NOTED ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA SINCE 05Z. INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. HENCE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS FOR A TIME THIS MRNG. LOW CLOUDS WL LIKELY THIN LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...BUT BY THEN MORE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. HERE ARE THE FACTORS WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT ON...PWAT VALUES LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY MID-LATE AFTN AS UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER SRN WI. THIS WILL REACH THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT GRB WITH DVN HISTORICAL PWAT VALUES NEARING TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. HENCE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO AFFECT SRN WI FROM MID-AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. DURING THIS TIME...VIGOROUS MID- LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE BORDER SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SRN WI REGION. HENCE ENUF CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES TO CONTINUE HIGH MID-RANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE. THINKING BEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THETA-E RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS SRN CWA AROUND 00Z AND 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALIGNED WITH 850-300MB FLOW FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER THESE FACTORS ONLY AFFECTING SRN WI FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD. IN ADDITION...3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ABOVE 2 INCHES MOST AREAS AND CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOSTLY ABOVE 15KTS. HENCE HELD OFF ON WATCH AND WL MENTION IN HWO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL TRAINING AFFECTING URBAN AREAS. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL CONVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET BRUSHES THE AREA. BULK SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE DAY TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER BUT CAPE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH 1000-2000 J. ABOUT HALF OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS USED IN THE SPC SSEO PAINT OUT AREAS OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND UPDRAFT SPEED DURING THE LATE AFTN WHILE 10M WIND SPEED NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS WEAK SO FOCUS WOULD BE ON HAIL AND WINDS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE BIGGEST FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING IN THE WEST TO THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LINGERING SMALL POPS IN FOR AFTN MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER 850 TEMPS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS HAS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ANY VORT...MAINLY THE SHEAR/ELONGATED VARIETY...ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONLY MODEL TO GENERATE PRECIP WILL GO WI THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND GO WITH THE DRY LOOK. 850 COLD ADVECTION WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 925 TEMPS STILL IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S LOOK REASONABLE. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO TAKE A TUMBLE TO UNDER 10C. THE GFS AND NAM ARE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE COLD ADVECTION. 925 TEMPS DROP AS WELL AND SUPPORT COOL FOR JULY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLOWER ON THE PROGRESS AND THE NAM/GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN 850 TEMP JUST A SMIDGE UNDER 3C AT 12Z ACROSS SC WI. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT A STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING WITHIN THIS VERY COOL AIRMASS. 925 TEMPS ONLY MODIFY TO 10-13C IN THE AFTN HRS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FOR MOST NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. TAKING A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH THE 925 TEMPS...WITH A NOD TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SHOWS HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. .WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE THOUGH SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL CHANCE OR SPRINKLES ESP IN ERN AND NE CWA AS WE GET CLOSER BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE DRY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM FAIRLY BENIGN NW FLOW. CHILLY TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THE LIGHT...SPOTTY AND RANDOM NATURE OF QPF BEING THROWN AROUND BY THE MODELS WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ANY WAVES QUITE WEAK. SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY POPS AT THIS POINT. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRATUS LOWERING TO MVFR WEST OF MADISON LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST SO FOR NOW WL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS RISING TO VFR LATER THIS MRNG. HIGH HUMIDITY AND DEWPTS RETURNING TODAY HELPING TO FUEL SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. MOST FAVORABLE TIMES FOR CONVECTION WL BE LISTED IN TAFS. && .MARINE...PATCHY OVERNIGHT CLEARING HAS ALLOWED THE MODIS IMAGER TO CATCH SOME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHEBOYGAN. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO DEVELOP. WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING MORE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ATTM DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 121712 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .UPDATE... IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI IS OUR MAIN THREAT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC STILL HAS SOUTHERN WI IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE...BUT THAT IS MAINLY FOR WIND. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING IS HELPING TO KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE 850MB FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SNEAK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A QUICK STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ VEERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN WI DUE TO THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUS SEVERE HAIL IS NO LONGER LIKELY. THE ONLY THING LEFT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO INCREASING BULK SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM. THE AREA WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE I-94 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. INCLUDING DELLS...MADISON AND MILWAUKEE AREAS AND SOUTH. TWO TO THREE INCHES COULD FALL WITHIN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. URBAN AREAS AND CONSTRUCTION AREAS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. WE ARE WEIGHING THE SHORT TERM PRECIP FORECAST HEAVILY ON THE HRRR GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE HRRR AND NEW 12Z WRF MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF THE MAIN BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING IN SOUTHERN WI THAN THE RAP. THE 12Z NAM DID NOT CAPTURE THE MORNING PRECIP VERY WELL AND SEEMS LIKE A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND LIGHT ON THE QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...SO WILL LEAN AWAY FROM THIS MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS BOTH BULLSEYE THE PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE SHORT NATURE OF THIS EXPECTED EVENING HEAVY RAIN EVENT... WE ARE STILL NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SOUTHERN WI MISSED OUT ON THE EARLY MORNING RAIN THAT HIT THE CHICAGO AREA SO WE ARE NOT PRE-CONDITIONED FOR FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS DEFINITELY AN URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING CONCERN...AND WE PLAN TO HANDLE THE RAIN WITH AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. OF COURSE...THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KDLL AND KMSN. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT EXPECT THE LOWERING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE AREA PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THERE IS LESS OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS STILL POSSIBLE. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/ TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - LOW. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSED INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MRNG MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN WI...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND FORCING. HENCE FORCED TO LOWER CONFIDENCE TO LOW FOR TODAY. LEANING TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN THE SHORT TERM AS CANADIAN HAVING ISSUES WITH QPF VERIFICATION OVERNIGHT. DO NOT CARE FOR NAM HANDLING OF UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE SO WL USE MORE OF A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN PRODUCING SCT-BKN STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN WI...HOWEVER INCREASE IN STRATUS NOTED ON 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA SINCE 05Z. INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WELL. HENCE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS FOR A TIME THIS MRNG. LOW CLOUDS WL LIKELY THIN LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN...BUT BY THEN MORE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED FROM DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. HERE ARE THE FACTORS WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT ON...PWAT VALUES LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES BY MID-LATE AFTN AS UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER SRN WI. THIS WILL REACH THE 75TH PERCENTILE AT GRB WITH DVN HISTORICAL PWAT VALUES NEARING TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. HENCE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. OTHER FACTOR IS THAT ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET TO AFFECT SRN WI FROM MID-AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. DURING THIS TIME...VIGOROUS MID- LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER SD/NE BORDER SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS SRN WI REGION. HENCE ENUF CONFIDENCE IN THESE FEATURES TO CONTINUE HIGH MID-RANGE TO CATEGORICAL POPS LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE. THINKING BEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SRN HALF OF CWA. CONSIDERED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THETA-E RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS SRN CWA AROUND 00Z AND 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ALIGNED WITH 850-300MB FLOW FOR A PERIOD. HOWEVER THESE FACTORS ONLY AFFECTING SRN WI FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD. IN ADDITION...3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ABOVE 2 INCHES MOST AREAS AND CORFIDI VECTORS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOSTLY ABOVE 15KTS. HENCE HELD OFF ON WATCH AND WL MENTION IN HWO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL TRAINING AFFECTING URBAN AREAS. TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. EXPECT NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL CONVECTION TO AFFECT SRN WI DURING THE EVENING AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET BRUSHES THE AREA. BULK SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE DAY TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER BUT CAPE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH 1000-2000 J. ABOUT HALF OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS USED IN THE SPC SSEO PAINT OUT AREAS OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY AND UPDRAFT SPEED DURING THE LATE AFTN WHILE 10M WIND SPEED NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS WEAK SO FOCUS WOULD BE ON HAIL AND WINDS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...CLOUD COVER WILL BE BIGGEST FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING IN THE WEST TO THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP LINGERING SMALL POPS IN FOR AFTN MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST NW WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER 850 TEMPS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A DRY SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS HAS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. UPPER FLOW IS BROADLY CYCLONIC WITH ANY VORT...MAINLY THE SHEAR/ELONGATED VARIETY...ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH THE GFS BEING THE ONLY MODEL TO GENERATE PRECIP WILL GO WI THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS AND GO WITH THE DRY LOOK. 850 COLD ADVECTION WILL PICK UP A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER 925 TEMPS STILL IN THE 18-20C RANGE SO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S LOOK REASONABLE. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF VORTICITY AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH DECENT LAPSE RATES AND SOME CAPE SHOULD RESULT IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHRA. 850 TEMPS CONTINUE TO TAKE A TUMBLE TO UNDER 10C. THE GFS AND NAM ARE QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE COLD ADVECTION. 925 TEMPS DROP AS WELL AND SUPPORT COOL FOR JULY HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLOWER ON THE PROGRESS AND THE NAM/GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN 850 TEMP JUST A SMIDGE UNDER 3C AT 12Z ACROSS SC WI. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT A STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP SHRA CHANCES GOING WITHIN THIS VERY COOL AIRMASS. 925 TEMPS ONLY MODIFY TO 10-13C IN THE AFTN HRS...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS FOR MOST NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. TAKING A COMPROMISE APPROACH WITH THE 925 TEMPS...WITH A NOD TO THE SOMEWHAT COOLER ECMWF SHOWS HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE MID 60S. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER FLOW STILL SHOWING A CYCLONIC CURVATURE THOUGH SURFACE HIGH DRAWS CLOSER AND AIRMASS DRIES OUT. MAY NEED A SMALL CHANCE OR SPRINKLES ESP IN ERN AND NE CWA AS WE GET CLOSER BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE DRY COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM FAIRLY BENIGN NW FLOW. CHILLY TEMPS SLOWLY MODIFY. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THE LIGHT...SPOTTY AND RANDOM NATURE OF QPF BEING THROWN AROUND BY THE MODELS WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ANY WAVES QUITE WEAK. SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY POPS AT THIS POINT. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRATUS LOWERING TO MVFR WEST OF MADISON LAST SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST SO FOR NOW WL CONTINUE A PERIOD OF LOWER MVFR CIGS RISING TO VFR LATER THIS MRNG. HIGH HUMIDITY AND DEWPTS RETURNING TODAY HELPING TO FUEL SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION FROM MID-AFTN THROUGH THE EVENING. LIKELY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY LOWER. MOST FAVORABLE TIMES FOR CONVECTION WL BE LISTED IN TAFS. MARINE...PATCHY OVERNIGHT CLEARING HAS ALLOWED THE MODIS IMAGER TO CATCH SOME SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MI. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT TO SHEBOYGAN. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 70 LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TO DEVELOP. WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING MORE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE ATTM DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 200159 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 859 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .UPDATE...BKN HIGH CLOUDS CAUSED BY PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HENCE BUMPED UP CLOUD WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN THOSE SUSCEPTIBLE ERN AREAS AS WELL. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AT KENW AND POSSIBLY KUES AFTER BKN HIGH CLOUDS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. && .MARINE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG FOR TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. MODIS IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY HAD LAKE SURFACE TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S SO CONDITIONS OVER THE WATER DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP INLAND LATE TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SHORE AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL EAST OF THE REGION...WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION. MAY SEE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS WEAK 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM PUSHES THROUGH. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED AT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS PER 925 MB MODEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND...UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SOME MODELS SHOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. LIKELY LEFT OVER SUNDAY NIGHT CONVECTION OR MCS ROLLING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF UPPER LEVER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FORECAST THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA...THEN CLEARING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO MIDDLE 80S. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY DURING MAX HEATING TIME OF DAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...SO MANY AREAS COULD SEE 1 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA UNTIL AROUND 02Z SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL LINGER AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA AS WELL UNTIL AROUND 02Z SUNDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOME CLEARING MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE LIGHT FOG AT KENOSHA BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z SUNDAY...POSSIBLY IFR AT TIMES LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED. MORE SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 060305 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 905 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015 .UPDATE...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE AND MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR STEADY TEMPS THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES FURTHER EAST. TEMPS MAY FALL A FEW DEGREES ONCE THE WIND SUBSIDES SO MAY LOWER A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CURRENT LOWS. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...RECENT DESCENT TAMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE REPORTED 46KT WINDS AT 1.5KFT RESULTING IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 06Z AS UPSTREAM WEAK SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. OTRW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU FRI. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION LATER FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FRI NGT AS HIGHER SFC DEWPTS MOVE INTO THE REGION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE LOW CIGS AT THIS POINT. && .MARINE...STATUS QUO ON ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVY. LAKESHORE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS. PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE TNGT WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTINESS TO SUBSIDE. HI RES MODIS AQUA IMAGE FROM TODAY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL ICE COVER THROUGHOUT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE SOME OF THE ICE TO THIN AND BREAK UP. WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD ALSO ERODE THE ICE COVER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015/ TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION SOUTH OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT...WHILE A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE TO A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE PROGGING ANY FORM OF PRECIPITATION TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO FALL IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL A STRONG PUSH OF H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BKN TO OVC SKIES SHOULD STICK AROUND OUR CWA TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO REACH NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES AROUND THE CWA DUE TO DECENT H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION. 12Z GFS MODEL IS PROGGING H85 TEMPERATURES TO REACH 4-5C IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SHORT TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EITHER THROUGH THE CWA OR JUST EXITING AT 12Z SATURDAY. SREF PROB OF VSBY < 3 MILES JUMPS TO 80 PCT IN WEST 1/2 BY 06Z SAT AND CWA WIDE BY 12Z...BUT MOS GUIDANCE HOLDS VSBY IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE SO WILL GO WITH PATCHY FOG FOR NOW. RELATIVELY SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH BELOW INVERSION AND LACK OF OMEGA LEADS TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT REDUCED CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SO LOWERED POPS. STILL COULD BE SLICK WHERE THE PATCHY DRIZZLE DOES FALL WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS ELEVATED STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION...WITH SOME DRYING SHRINKING CLOUD DEPTH SO CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LOWERS EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. NO BIG JUMP IN SURFACE TEMPS DUE TO INVERSION BUT SHOULD SEE READINGS SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 30S. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM VARIABILITY IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW HAVING A BIG IMPACT ON DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE VERTICAL THERMAL STRUCTURE. FORCING FOCUSES BETTER CHANCES TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL SEE CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN AS LOW APPROACHES AND WITH DEFORMATION ZONE CROSSING AREA SUNDAY. CONSENSUS TEMPS BRINGS A WINTRY MIX...WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTH...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS IN THE NORTH WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM COULD SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WITH A PERIOD OF NE FLOW BEHIND LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER WITH JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON FAR NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND CWA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET SOUTH...WITH ALL SNOW NORTH. MEAGER SNOW/LIQUID RATIONS UNDER 10:1 WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH AND UNDER AN INCH SOUTH WITH THE POSSIBLE MIX. QUIET BUT TURNING COLDER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO BELOW ZERO LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR 45 KTS WILL OCCUR AT 2000 METERS DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 3 AM FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD TURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATER FRIDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 220327 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 927 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015 .UPDATE...WILL CONTINUE SLOW CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS WEST IN VICINITY OF ARCTIC FRONT. HOWEVER LOW LEVELS SUCCUMB TO STRONG INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREA OF FLURRIES AND ISOLD -SHSN PICKING UP ALONG ARCTIC FRONT AND SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WHICH WILL AFFECT EASTERN AREAS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK IN GOOD ORDER. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND ZERO TO 2 BELOW IN THE WEST LATE TNGT RESULT IN WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 20 BELOW. THE RETURN OF THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE 5 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE WITH PERSISTENT COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS LIKELY SUN NGT. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES IN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MAIN ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA. CIGS MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR WITH -SN BUT WL BE MOSTLY VFR WITH CLEARING TREND TNGT INTO EARLY SUN. && .MARINE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH RES MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED ICE COVERING MUCH OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT SOME ICE GROWTH TO OCCUR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS MORNING ON LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. THE 925MB COLD FRONT LAGS BEHIND IN CENTRAL WI AS OF 3 PM. THE 925MB FRONT AND STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/ WITH JUST ENOUGH OMEGA/UPWARD MOTION TO PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WI FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS. ONLY A DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON UPSTREAM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS... THAT APPEARS OVERDONE AND I LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER GFS AND OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND ZERO NEAR THE DELLS AND 10 ABOVE NEAR KENOSHA BY 12Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE TEMPS WILL STEADY OUT IN THE MORNING AND RISE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. DESPITE STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS... WIND CHILL TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO TOWARD THE DELLS. NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY PLANNED FOR THE MKX FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN BY MONDAY. VERY WEAK UPPER CONVERGENCE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE LATER MONDAY. WEAK 700 MB DOWNWARD MOTION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH VERY WEAK UPWARD MOTION MONDAY AFTERNOON. 700 MB RH REMAINS DRY WITH SOME MOISTENING NORTH AREAS MONDAY. LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY. 850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TOWARDS MONDAY MORNING...BUT VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS TOWARDS IOWA BUT THEN DROPS SOUTH. AS A RESULT THE WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE COMPLETELY SO WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN AT PLAY IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HIGH DROPS SOUTH MONDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY. MUCH OF THE WARMING IS ALOFT WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 1 THSD FT EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOIST LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION IS VERY SHALLOW...SO STRATUS NOT EXPECTED...JUST INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH PUSHING INTO WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHOUT THE PRIOR LEAD CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A BAND OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 925/850/700 MB SWINGS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD HIGH NORTH OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTA... BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTH LOW LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS IT WEAKENS AND A SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE SURFACE COLD HIGH SAGS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE REGION. WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE GFS LIFTS AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SLOWER...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW QUICKER THAN THE GFS. AS A RESULT THE GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW CLOSE TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES OCCUR TO OUR SOUTH AND ALSO LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS LIFTING TO VFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND THEREAFTER AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY TRACE/DUSTING ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTS TO AROUND 23 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE... BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE DROPS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 222026 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 226 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO ILLINOIS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT... AND THEN INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. THE HIGH WILL BRING A CORE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO -22 TO -24C WHICH TRANSLATES TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT. COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL WI... CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE HIGH. WINDS COULD DECOUPLE THERE WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST... BUT WIND CHILL TEMPS WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS LOW. OVERALL... EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT 5 TO 10 MPH... SO MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW RANGE FROM MID EVENING THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND UP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OUT OF THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A NORTHERN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH BRUSHES THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK UPWARD 700 MB LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY. MODERATE 925/850/700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BAND OF HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 925/850/700 MB SWINGS DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MAINLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH DRYING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH 925 MB RH REMAINS LONGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRYING FROM THE NORTH LATE. THE SURFACE LOW IS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH DRIER...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF HAVING NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION EXCEPT TOWARDS SHEBOYGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE LOW MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE BASE OF THE INITIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY....WITH A SECOND TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH MAINLY WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION AT 700 MB. 700 MB RH IS LOW. THE 925/850 MB RH DRIES TUESDAY EVENING WITH 925 MB RH INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS... BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NORTH LOW LEVEL WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. .LONG TERM... .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE SPLIT FLOW BREAKS DOWN AS THE NORTHERN TROUGH BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SAGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WISCONSIN. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS... WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON THE REGION. WITH LIGHT WINDS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD IF SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH LIGHT WINDS...WINDS CHILLS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE NORTHERN STREAM BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL AS IT WEAKENS AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE CENTER OF THE COLD SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES A LITTLE EAST FRIDAY CONTINUING THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS...WINDS CHILLS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE REACHES THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WISCONSIN. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ANY EJECTING SHORTWAVES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TWO SHORTWAVES PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST...THE FIRST WOULD MOVE WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH ANY EJECTING SHORTWAVES. THE 12Z ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS. THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS WOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD ONLY BEGIN SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... THEN BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL... WITH 40 TO 50 KNOT WSW WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A LAYER OF ICE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HENTZ  FXUS63 KMKX 250936 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 336 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015 ADDED TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE SECTIONS .TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP ON THE VWP NETWORK IN NODAK AT 850H TAKES A SOUTHEAST TRACK ACROSS ERN SODAK AND WRN IA TO NEAR IA/MO BORDER BY 00Z. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS BEEN NUDGING THIS SYSTEM FARTHER NORTHEAST AND 06Z NAM EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION IS TRAVELING SOUTHEAST ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC RIBBON. THIS NORTHEAST NUDGE IS BRINGING A MUCH BETTER THREAT FOR -SN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI FROM LATE MRNG INTO THE EVE. 285 ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOWS BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER LIFT IN THE AFTN AFFECTING SOUTHWEST CWA WHICH TIES INTO WHERE BETTER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED. MODERATE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALSO BRUSHES SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN. THICKNESSES FAVOR SLR AROUND 20 TO 1 WITH QPF BETWEEN 0.05 TO 0.1. AT THIS TIME THINKING A COUPLE INCHES COULD OCCUR IN THE DARLINGTON AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING...TRAILING OFF TO AROUND AN INCH IN THE MADISON AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTN. WL ADD MENTION TO THE HWO AS -SN WILL BE OCCURING DURING EVE RUSH. .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. HUNG ONTO SOME LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION AND LIFT WITH PASSING 850MB LOW SINKS TO THE SOUTH. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW MORE LIKELY TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THRU THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. COLD AIR SINKING ACROSS LAKE MI WILL RESULT IN THE DELTA-T INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 20C. EXPECT DEEP RH UP TO 10K FEET FOR A TIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES...WITH MUCH OF THE COLUMN IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE LATE EVE TO AFT MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS RESULTING IN SEVERAL PERIODS OF FAVORABLE OMEGA ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HIGH RES MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN SHOWED ICE COVER REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...BUT LAKE WATERS BEYOND 10 MILES REMAINED ICE FREE. HARD TO SAY WHAT AFFECT THE ICE COVER WILL HAVE...BUT ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELYS FROM SRN MKE COUNTY SOUTH TO IL BORDER WITH SCT WORDING FARTHER NORTH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLOW CHART RESULTS IN MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT BUT WITH ICE COVER AND GRADUALLY BACKING WINDS...WL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR NOW. .SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS LINGER LIGHT LAKE EFFECT QPF ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...AS 1000/850 MB CONVERGENCE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST. VERY FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES REMAIN...THOUGH AIR COLUMN ABOVE INVERSION DRIES OUT. THUS...CONTINUED TO MENTION MODEST POPS IN THIS AREA THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY...AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 00Z SATURDAY...THEN TO THE EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AIRMASS/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG NEAR SURFACE INVERSION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. LOWS MAY GET SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IF WINDS FULLY DECOUPLE...WHICH IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND FRIDAY INTO THE MID TEENS...ARE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF MODELS SHOW 500 MB FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND GENERALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS QUICKER WITH BRINGING INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION QPF INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THEY BOTH BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MORE MODEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MAY NEED ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECASTS IF QPF CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BEFORE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW TRACK TIMING...THOUGH BOTH DO BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF QPF AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN LATER FORECASTS...AS THIS TRACK COULD BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. STAY TUNED... && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... BETTER THREAT FOR -SN TO SPREAD INTO KMSN THIS AFTN WITH CIGS AND VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR. LAKE EFFECT -SHSN LIKELY TO AFFECT KMKE AND KENW TNGT WITH POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING AS LOW AS IFR. && .MARINE... HIGH RESOLUTION MODIS IMAGE FROM TUE AFTN HAD PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH REVEALED ICE COVER PERSISTING IN THOSE VSBL AREAS. WITH COLD AIR RETURNING AND SETTLING IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...EXPECT WIDESPREAD ICE COVER TO CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS WL GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 072123 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 323 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2015 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER PER THE FARTHER NORTH ECMWF AND CANADIAN...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE WITH A FARTHER SOUTH AND DRY SOLUTION. COULD SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOMORROW AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COLDER...SO EXPECTING HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY. STILL...TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE MILDER ECMWF...AS THE GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST SUN EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED. A SFC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL...A SPLIT JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP WITH THE NRN BRANCH MAINLY OVER SRN CANADA...AND THE SRN BRANCH OVER THE SRN USA AND MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL IN THE SRN BRANCH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME. SWLY SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION FOR MON-TUE WITH PERSISTENT SFC-850 MB WARM ADVECTION. MOST TEMP GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD. 925 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO 2-3C FOR MON AFT AND 8-9C FOR TUE AFT. THE LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY NOT EXTEND UPWARD TO 925 MB BUT ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S MON TO 50S TUE. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A TRAILING CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER SRN WI TUE NT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR WED. THE AIRMASS REMAINS MILD BUT FAR ERN WI WILL SEE A LAKE BREEZE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN EJECT NEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR THU-FRI. FAR SE WI COULD GET CLIPPED BY LGT RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT ONLY VERY LOW PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE TEMPERATURES FOR THU-SAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRESSURE FIELD AND JUST HOW STRONG ANY ELY COMPONENT WINDS WILL BE. KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S OVER FAR ERN WI DURING THIS TIME WITH LOWER TO MID 50S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .MARINE... VERY LITTLE ICE EVIDENT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON MODIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. MILDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO LIMITED ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING  FXUS63 KMKX 092008 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 308 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH TEMPS ALOFT INCREASING TOMORROW AS THE WAVE DRAWS NEAR. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP FOG AWAY...BUT SOMETHING TO AT LEAST KEEP AN EYE ON. WENT WARMER THAN MOST MODELS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...AS EVEN THE MILD ECMWF IS UNDERCUTTING ACTUAL TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. KEPT HIGHS COOLER IN THE SOUTH WITH THE DEEPER SNOW PACK. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK IS ABOUT GONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE FIRST 50 DEGREE READINGS IN SOME TIME TODAY...COULD ALREADY SEE THE FIRST 60 DEGREE READINGS TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SRN WI WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM THAT IS OVER SRN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUE NT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FOR WED. THE COLD ADVECTION IS WEAK...LEAVING A MILD AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE COLD LAKE BREEZE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES FOR WED NT AND THU WITH SELY WINDS EXPECTED. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DUE ELY FOR FRI AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN ONE QUARTER OF THE AREA VIA ONSHORE WINDS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE 50S. LOWER 60S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WI RIVER VALLEY. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FOR FRI NT AND SAT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LGT RAIN CONTINUED TO BE FORECAST OVER FAR SE WI AS THIS SYSTEM MAP CLIP THE AREA. WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA...NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH A ROLL OVER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUN NT WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED INTO MON. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR MON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE SOME FOG TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT...BUT SO WILL TEMPERATURES. ALSO...WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. WILL THUS NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GEHRING  FXUS63 KMKX 251551 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1051 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 .UPDATE... MESOSCALE MODELS AND UPDATED SYNOPTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THE PASSING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE...REMAINS IN THIS AREA. SEEING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO WILL ADJUST POPS FOR THOSE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL LEAVE IN GENERALLY LOWER END POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO MIDDLE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING DRY TOWARD SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING SOME BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 40S LAKESIDE...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHWEST...WHERE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY. MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS SOME MORE IN THE SOUTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. WOOD && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... MAY SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AT KENOSHA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER CHANCES AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WOOD && .MARINE... SEVERAL VESSELS PARKED IN MILWAUKEE AND RACINE HARBORS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE ENE THIS MORNING. FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MISSOURI E-SE TOWARD TN VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...BOTH RAP AND 12Z NAM12 SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ALONG LAKE MI WEST COAST THIS AFTN WHICH COULD PARTIALLY BE A RESULT OF COLD LAKE MI TEMPS. RETURN OF MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE MI SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S ON FRI. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH SRN ZONES LIKELY TO HAVE MORE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 22KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT N TO NE FETCH WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE. MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM BACK END TIME OF SMALL CRAFT ADVY WITH NEW AFTN FORECAST AS WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE 250 MB UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS... REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EVENING. AS IT DOES THE UPPER JET IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH...WHILE THE MAIN JET MAX MOVES OFF TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AS 500 MB PUSHES MAINLY EAST BEFORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS BORDER TODAY. THE 700 MB RH IS SATURATED ALONG THE SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THEN DRIES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THE 850 MB RH DRIES THIS MORNING NORTH AREAS...THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB LOW WEAKENS AND ELONGATES AS IT MOVES EAST...THEN SAGGING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST 850 MB WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY TURN NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE WINDS ALSO INCREASE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN. THE NAM...HRRR AND THE ARW HIGH RES MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...ALTHOUGH THE ARW NMN DOES HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND A BIT MORE NORTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE GFS IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. WILL BE CUTTING BACK ON POP VALUES...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF TODAY. LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/ EVENING. THE ECMWF ALLOWS THIS SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS DROPS IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE HEELS OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT/WED WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN WI. THUS... KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE ECWMF IS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL UPPER JET ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THU NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING A LARGER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS IS QUICKEST TO DRAW VERY WARM AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DELAYED WITH THE WARMING SINCE IT IS SHOWING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. IF THE GFS PANS OUT... MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND KENTUCKY REGION TODAY MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN. MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS BORDER...AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. CIGS WILL RISE AND CLOUDS CLEAR FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. MARINE... EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. RESULTING PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BRING WAVES ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 252022 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015 .TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 700 MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SUNSHINE IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE DRIER FLOW OF AIR INTO THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER 40S NEAR THE LAKE. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. WEAK PUSH OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN CLOUDS TO ERN CWA SUN NGT AS LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND ERN CONUS UPPER LOW. ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS BEGINS TO SHRINK AND SPIN OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHTER WINDS AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WL RESULT IN WINDS REMAINING MOSTLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAYTIME NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE SEA SURFACE TEMP IN THE LOW 40S. LAKESHORE AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ON MONDAY BUT GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SFC WINDS...BEGINNING THE DAY NORTHWEST BEFORE VEERING ONSHORE. SUNSHINE AND WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW INLAND LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 60S BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS NEARING 70 IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY. KEEPING AN EYE ON APPROACHING WEAK TROF IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS TROF WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST WI ON TUESDAY AND SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WL LIKELY SPREAD INTO SRN WI LATER IN THE DAY FROM THIS FEATURE. QUESTIONABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING SO WL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN CARRYING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS WI TUE AND WED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS WI DURING THIS PERIOD. WHILE GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE AND GEM KEEPS UPPER CIRCULATION SLIDING SOUTH INTO IA...ONLY ECMWF SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAKE MI AREA TUE NGT INTO WED. NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS ECMWF ALSO SHOWS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER ALREADY MOVING ACROSS SRN CAN NORTH OF THE PLAINS ON WED. ALSO...GEM...GFS AND DGEX SHOWING MORE PROGRESSIVE...WEAKER SITUATION. WL PROBABLY KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCES FOR -SHRA IN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR TUE NGT/WED TO ACKNOWLEDGE WEAK TROF PASSAGE. SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BOTTLE UP DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WEAK TROF DOES EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO RESULT IN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF OVER ERN CONUS ON THU AND FRI. HOWEVER DESCREPANCY REMAINS AS SLOW GFS SHOWS DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER ERN GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE AND TAKES SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW INTO WRN ATLANTIC BY FRI. THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS HAVE A DIRECT AFFECT ON EXPECTED TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. MORE AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION KEEPS DEEPER RIDGING AND COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERING LONGER ACROSS WRN GTLAKES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SHOWS UPSTREAM RIDGING BREAKING DOWN FASTER...WITH MILDER MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTLING INTO WI ON SAT...WHILE GFS REMAINS COOLER. DGEX AND WPC LEANING TOWARD MODEL BLEND. EITHER WAY...WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. APPROACHING UPSTREAM TROF AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY RETURN THUNDER TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY...MAY 4TH. CPC 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS GREATER LIKLIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SPREADING INTO WI FOR THE PERIOD MAY 2-8. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET...WITH VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT THE EASTERN SITES AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .MARINE... TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING NEAR THE SHORELINE RESULTING IN NORTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT MARINE OBSERVATION SITES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING SUBSIDES. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT...PERHAPS A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE NEED FOR AN EARLIER ENDING TIME. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 UNTIL 12Z/26. $$ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 261536 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1036 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015 .UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE REGION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY LOOK TO AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER NORTH WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WELL INLAND...WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE. GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH ONSHORE WINDS BRINGING COOLER VALUES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EACH DAY. WOOD && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT THE EASTERN SITES...WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER NORTH WINDS AT MADISON. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. WOOD && .MARINE... MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE MI SFC TEMP AROUND 41 DEGREES. WEAK SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MI THIS AFTN AND EVE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS SHOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION PERSISTING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS FROM REACHING LAKE SURFACE. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTS MAY PUNCH THROUGH THIS INVERSION. WL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVY AT THIS POINT...DUE TO INFREQUENT GUSTS EXPECTED. WL ADD EXERCISE CAUTION REMARK TO NSH FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. MBK && .FIRE WEATHER... VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 8 TO 11 MPH RANGE...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EACH DAY...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. WOOD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CANADA EXTENDS BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH DROPS SOUTH A LITTLE AND BUILDS BACK INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OR 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN 700 MB RH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST THAT REACHES THE LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES. 850 MB RH ALSO INCREASES...BUT MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT IS NOT SATURATED...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE 850 MB WINDS MAINLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE 700 MB WIND INCREASE OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE 850 MB WIND INCREASE IS MAINLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH SURFACE HEATING WIND GUSTS...WHILE NOT STRONG...WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS. WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...EXPECT TYPICAL SPRINGTIME COOLING NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND. LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS WEEK AS A SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING A PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER TO SOUTHERN WI. THERE WILL BE A STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD... BUT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WE CAN EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH DAY. INLAND TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THIS PERIOD WHILE LAKESHORE TEMPS WILL BE STUCK IN THE 50S. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH WI TUE AFTERNOON/ EVENING. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING AT LEAST A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SPRINKLES. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDER IS DEBATABLE. THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER. LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY. THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKE ON SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERNS LATER NEXT WEEKEND... BUT BOTH RESULT IN PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE ECMWF DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AWAY FROM THE MORE STABLE EFFECTS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME CLOUDS IN THE 5 TO 8 THSD FT RANGE MAY AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO MAINLY SCATTERED. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH MIXING BUT WITHOUT THE GUSTS LIKE SATURDAY. MARINE... WINDS ARE EASING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING. A SURGE IN STRONGER NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD PUSH WINDS AND WAVES BACK TOWARDS SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 25 PCT WELL INLAND AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MAYBE DOWN TOWARDS 20 PCT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASE IN 700 MB WINDS THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE 850 MB WINDS MAINLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE 700 MB WIND INCREASE OCCURS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE 850 MB WIND INCREASE IS MAINLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH SURFACE HEATING WIND GUSTS...WHILE NOT STRONG...WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN THE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUGGESTS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 311459 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 959 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .UPDATE... A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST HIGHS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... MAY SEE MVFR CIGS BRUSH FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .MARINE... BLUSTERY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AND RESULTANT WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 09Z THIS MORNING SHOWED MID-LAKE SFC TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 40F. && .BEACHES... HIGH SWIM RISK CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECTED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED AT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES CREATING DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. DRIVING FORCE BEHIND DANGEROUS SWIM CONDITIONS IS GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...UP TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY...BUT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE STRONG JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WAS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH A WEAK 500/250 MB TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TONIGHT. NOT MUCH REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH EVEN AT 700 MB AS 700 MB RH ID DRY. THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. 850 MB RH IS ALSO DRY. THERE IS SOME HIGHER RH AT 925 MB THIS MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THAT DRYS MID TO LATE MORNING. WITH SUNNY SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL RISE...BUT AN INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE MIXING. EVEN SO EXPECT DEW POINTS TO LOWER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND STAY RATHER LOW EAST. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH WEST AREAS AND 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY HAVE A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS INDICATE HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND ON MONDAY...AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. GFS/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH MAIN FEATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEY SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST DURING THIS TIME. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHS WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY. KEPT LOWER END POPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY THURSDAY...AS 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHES THE AREA. HOWEVER...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE MEAGER WITH DEEP MOISTURE...SO COULD SEE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY END UP DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM DURING THIS TIME...WITH COOLER READINGS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE WINDS. MODELS SHOWING SOME MORE DIFFERENCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THEY DO BRING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. CONTINUED WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO REDUCE CHANCES FOR QPF FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS. GFS ALSO SHOWING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE ECMWF WEST OF THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...COOLER NEAR THE LAKE WITH ONSHORE WINDS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND KENOSHA INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR. AN INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT WILL LIMIT THE AFTERNOON MIXING. EVEN WITH THE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW MIXING...IT IS ENOUGH TO BRING GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WEST AREAS AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GUSTS EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. MARINE... WILL HAVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY AREAS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND TIL 9 PM FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. FEW WIND GUSTS STILL REACHING GALE CRITERIA SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE BUT THESE SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE SHORTLY. THE STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR INDIANAPOLIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BEACHES... WILL EXTEND THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK UNTIL 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON NORTH AREAS...AND 9 PM THIS EVENING SOUTH AREAS. WAVES NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET UNTIL THEN. DANGEROUS...LIFE THREATENING SWIM CONDITIONS WILL THUS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50...CREATING A HYPOTHERMIA RISK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ066- 071-072. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052- 060. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643-644. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 090853 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 .SHORT TERM... TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS. WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SO WL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. THIS PATCHY LIGHT FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. PAIR OF UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THRU WI TODAY. FIRST IS IN THE VICNITY OF NW WI/MN BORDER AND WILL PASS ACROSS SRN WI THIS MRNG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH SO WL CONTINUE DRY MRNG FORECAST. SECOND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN NE NODAK PASSES ACROSS NRN WI DURING THE AFTN...WITH WEAK SOUTHWARD EXTENSION AFFECTING SRN WI. SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 4KM WRF FROM SPC SHOWING SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN CWA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH ELEVATED CAPE RAISING TO AROUND 500 J. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO LOWER SFC DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD REDUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR NOW LINGER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE. .TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA AFTER 06Z. A LITTLE BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AS THIS FRONT MOVES. LAYER Q- VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO OVER 10 UNITS. MOISTURE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE FACTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WI WED MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 80S IN SOUTHERN WI. .LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET... WILL ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS WI ON FRIDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THU EVENING. DRY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LIMITED. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL FOCUS ON SOUTHERN MN /NORTHERN IA ON THU AFTERNOON... AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THU NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS THAT SHOULD ROLL ACROSS WI THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP TO AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS SHOULD EXCEED ONE INCH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND SHEARS IT OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN FRI AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS KEEP IT RIGHT OVER THE BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY ALL BRING IT INTO NORTHERN WI FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A RAINIER PATTERN THAN THE ECWMF AT THIS TIME. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IS INHERENTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY YET DEVELOP AT INLAND TAF SITES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER PATCHY MID-CLOUDS PREVENTING TEMP FROM SINKING TO DEWPOINT LAST FEW HOURS. OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR T AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TNGT. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM MAY POP UP THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY AND MID- LEVEL RH MINIMAL SO WL NOT ADD TO TAFS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS REMARK TO TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS SRN WI. && .MARINE...MODIS LAKE SURFACE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 17Z MONDAY SHOWED SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY AFTN MAY HAVE PULLED SOME COOLER WATER TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER LATEST ATWATER BUOY WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND 49...WHICH IS ABOUT 2KM OFFSHORE OF ATWATER BEACH IN NRN MILWAUKEE CO. SFC DEWPTS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAKE TEMP IN NEARSHORE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS BUT WL WAIT FOR THE VSBL IMAGERY TO CONFIRM. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO ADD FOG TO NEARSHORE. THERMAL GRADIENT AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LAKESHORE AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST AFTN WINDS. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KSBM DUE TO SHORE ORIENTATION AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KMKE BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER INLAND. BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF CDFNT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TNGT AND EARLY WED. OFFSHORE GUSTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 091439 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 939 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 .UPDATE... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY IS SMOKE COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTING EASTWARD LATE THIS MORNING...SO STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR TEMPS TO WARM UP QUITE A BIT. LATEST MODELS SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS GETTING AS HIGH AS 24 TO 27 C IN THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND JUST A DEGREE OR SO COOLER EAST. GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY REACH FORECAST HIGHS. WOULD CONSIDER TEMPS A BIT WARMER IF NOT FOR THE SMOKE AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...A COUPLE MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A LITTLE CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A LITTLE LIFT MAINLY BELOW 700 MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON...BUT NOT SOLD ON THIS QUITE YET. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK WAVE...BUT BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST WITH THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY FALLING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT IN MANY AREAS. WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG SO WL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS. THIS PATCHY LIGHT FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. PAIR OF UPSTREAM WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THRU WI TODAY. FIRST IS IN THE VICINITY OF NW WI/MN BORDER AND WILL PASS ACROSS SRN WI THIS MRNG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MINIMAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LACKING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RH SO WL CONTINUE DRY MRNG FORECAST. SECOND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IN NE NODAK PASSES ACROSS NRN WI DURING THE AFTN...WITH WEAK SOUTHWARD EXTENSION AFFECTING SRN WI. SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING 4KM WRF FROM SPC SHOWING SCT CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN CWA BY LATE AFTN. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS AFTN WITH ELEVATED CAPE RAISING TO AROUND 500 J. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL MIXING TO LOWER SFC DEWPTS INTO THE LOWER 50S WHICH WOULD REDUCE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FOR NOW LINGER DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTN...BUT ISOLD CONVECTION POSSIBLE. TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. UPSTREAM COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA AFTER 06Z. A LITTLE BIT MORE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AS THIS FRONT MOVES. LAYER Q- VECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO OVER 10 UNITS. MOISTURE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE FACTOR OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO IMPRESSIVE LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT...WL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MAY BE A PERIOD OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. THE SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME ONGOING LIGHT SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST WI WED MORNING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. THE WARM START TO THE DAY AND THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID 80S IN SOUTHERN WI. LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET... WILL ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS WI ON FRIDAY. WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH THU EVENING. DRY EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCES LIMITED. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET /LLJ/ WILL FOCUS ON SOUTHERN MN /NORTHERN IA ON THU AFTERNOON... AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI LATE THU NIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR AN MCS THAT SHOULD ROLL ACROSS WI THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP TO AROUND 1.75 WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS SHOULD EXCEED ONE INCH. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND SHEARS IT OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN FRI AFTERNOON. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE MODELS DIVERGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOCATION OF THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS KEEP IT RIGHT OVER THE BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY. THEY ALL BRING IT INTO NORTHERN WI FOR SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS SHOWING A RAINIER PATTERN THAN THE ECWMF AT THIS TIME. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVES IS INHERENTLY VARIABLE BETWEEN MODELS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT FOG MAY YET DEVELOP AT INLAND TAF SITES NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER PATCHY MID-CLOUDS PREVENTING TEMP FROM SINKING TO DEWPOINT LAST FEW HOURS. OTRW...A VFR PERIOD WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR T AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TNGT. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM MAY POP UP THIS AFTN BUT INSTABILITY AND MID- LEVEL RH MINIMAL SO WL NOT ADD TO TAFS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO ADD LLWS REMARK TO TAFS FOR LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS SRN WI. MARINE...MODIS LAKE SURFACE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 17Z MONDAY SHOWED SHALLOWER NEAR SHORE WATERS HAD WARMED INTO THE LOWER 50S. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS MONDAY AFTN MAY HAVE PULLED SOME COOLER WATER TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER LATEST ATWATER BUOY WATER TEMPERATURE AROUND 49...WHICH IS ABOUT 2KM OFFSHORE OF ATWATER BEACH IN NRN MILWAUKEE CO. SFC DEWPTS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAKE TEMP IN NEARSHORE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS BUT WL WAIT FOR THE VSBL IMAGERY TO CONFIRM. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD DRY THE LOW LEVELS SLIGHTLY SO NOT CONFIDENT ENUF AT THIS POINT TO ADD FOG TO NEARSHORE. THERMAL GRADIENT AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. HOWEVER LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO LAKESHORE AREAS DUE TO SOUTHWEST AFTN WINDS. LAKE BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KSBM DUE TO SHORE ORIENTATION AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT TO KMKE BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER INLAND. BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF CDFNT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TNGT AND EARLY WED. OFFSHORE GUSTS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 031526 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1026 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ELONGATED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EASTERN LAKES. WATER VAPOR/RAP VORT ANIMATION SHOWS CIRCULATION ACRS NRN/ERN IL SHIFTING EAST WITH HIGH CLOUDS ON NRN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE DECREASE ACRS SE WI. EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION FROM NRN WI WITH NRN ENERGY/FRONT TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. VERY WEAK TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL NECESSITATE VRY SML POPS FOR SATURDAY. NAM AND GFS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF CAPE THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN MAY NOT BE QUICK ENOUGH GIVEN WEAK FLOW AROUND UPPER MIDWEST. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE 12Z GFS BACKS OFF ON THE MORE ROBUST 6Z SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY. PC && .MARINE...MODIS LAKE SFC TEMPERATURE IMAGER MEASURED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND MID-LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 50. LAKE TEMPERATURE REMAINED IN THE COOLER 40S FARTHER NORTH OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI IN THE VICINITY OF THE CHIPPEWA BASIN. WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SFC DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN LAKE SFC TEMPS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG TO FORM THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATEST LAKESHORE WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT HAZE WHICH SHOULD THIN AS THE WINDS START TO STIR A BIT. HENCE EVENING FIREWORKS CELEBRATIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OBSCURED. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN IL THAT IS BRINGING THE HIGH CLOUDS TO SRN WI WILL MOVE EAST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. MOST OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY AFTERNOON BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME SMOKE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. TO THE NORTH...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TNT WITH ITS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TNT AND REACH CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SAT. PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH LATE TNT AND THERE MAY BE SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA VIA CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NRN WI. FORECASTED 925 MB TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH HIGHS NEAR 70F AT THE LAKEFRONT. FOR TNT TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THANKS TO THE WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS BUT ALSO DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTH WITH A LGT WLY FLOW EXPECTED. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH. MOST OF THE LIFT SATURDAY SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. DEWPOINTS ARE PROBABLY A BIT TOO HIGH ON THE GFS AND NAM...LIKELY RESULTING IN OVERDONE INSTABILITY. MORE CONSERVATIVE MODELS STILL SHOWING SURFACE BASED CAPE PEAKING AT AROUND 1000 J/KG...SO SOME CONVECTION IS NOT UNREASONABLE. FORTUNATELY...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND WILL BE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING...SO HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON FIREWORK SHOWS. MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT LESS OF A LIFTING MECHANISM...SO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND MOST PLACES...ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2 INCHES. CAPE VALUES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20-25 KNOTS...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE. SHOULD SEE TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL MONDAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TNT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER SRN WI TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TNT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 041513 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL SET UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY. ANY CONVERGENCE AROUND THE AREA TODAY MINIMAL WITH VERY WEAK WIND REGIME DUE TO LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENT. MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTN WEARS ON IN ERN AND NRN CWA SO WILL KEEP THE GOING SMALL POPS. SREF CIG/VSBY PROGS NOT SUGGESTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...THOUGH MET MOS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS. WILL KEEP OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. PC && .MARINE...EXPECT LIGHT WEST WINDS TO TURN ONSHORE THROUGH 18Z AND REMAIN MOSTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10KTS THRU THE AFTN. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ADDING A MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY CONTINUED TO MEASURE THE LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WATER DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVE. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH WEAK 250 MB FLOW. WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY WEAK 700 MB COOLING THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK WARMING BY TONIGHT. 700 MB DRYING BY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. 850 MB DEW POINTS ARE AROUND 11 CELSIUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER AROUND 800 MB. GFS FORECAST SOUNDING HAVE STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SURFACE TO 3 KM VALUES OF 8 CELSIUS/KM AND AROUND 9.7 FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 MB. HOWEVER THE MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY STABLE WITH 3-6KM LAPSE RATES OF 5.9 CELSIUS/KM...WITH A RATHER HIGH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM 700 TO 600 MB. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS /COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BUT THAT WEAKENS WITH MAINLY A WEAK WEST FLOW INLAND AREAS...WITH A LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INLAND DURING THE DAY EAST. SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY TODAY. WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RISES TO AROUND 800 JOULES/KG. THE MESO MODELS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND GFS KEYING MORE ON THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH EXPECT DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA...WITH HIGHS LIKELY A COUPLE TO FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ASIDE FROM THE QUICKER GFS...MODELS HAVE SLOWED A BIT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES. CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FRONT TIMING. SPC HAS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS THOUGH...SO KEPT HIGHER POPS GOING SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING. MODEL 925 MB TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 22-24C RANGE...SO WENT WITH MID TO EVEN UPPER 80S IN A FEW SPOTS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND THAT...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE SOME LOW POPS GOING AT TIMES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. SOMEWHAT OF A SPREAD IN MODEL TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH THE ECMWF MAINTAINING COOLER TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING MONDAY SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS OF COOL DOWN AND RECOVERS TEMPS FASTER. STUCK NEAR CONSENSUS OF MODEL TEMPS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...RESULTING IN FORECAST TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL VALUES. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... PATCHY IFR FOG MAINLY IN LOW AREAS ENDING BY 13Z. OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND WEAKEN...SO POTENTIAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STRAY THUNDERSTORM SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. EXPECT ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER TO CONTINUE FROM THE CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. MARINE... EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS RISE SLOWLY SO FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 051522 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1022 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...QUIET AND VFR FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY PICKS UP AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS SOUTH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST LIKELIHOOD MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN BUT THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT. PC && .MARINE...SHORELINE WEB CAMS INDICATE LIGHT HAZE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS EXTENDING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN ONSHORE AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO EXPECTED SFC DEWPTS TODAY. HENCE PULLED FOG MENTION BUT THINK AREAS OF LIGHT HAZE WILL CONTINUE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND INSOLATION WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO AFFECT NEAR SHORE AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STILL LOOKING LIKELY. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH VERY WEAK 250 MB FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH WELL SOUTH. LITTLE OR NO 700 MB UPWARD MOTION. VERY WEAK 850/700 MB WARMING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 700 MB LEVELS ARE DRY. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. THEREFORE THE 1000 JOULES/KG OF CAPE MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF MADISON THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT COME INTO PLAY. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BUT NOT PROGRESS AS MUCH INLAND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO THE MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONG CAP MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SHOULD BE A GOOD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GFS AND NAM INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES. CAPE VALUES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE. SOME STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN THE FRONT TIMING ALONG WITH RESPECTABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES. SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE FOR A ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMER STORMS...SO BUMPED POPS UP SOME MORE. STILL THINKING IT WILL BE A WARM DAY MONDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF 22-25C AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT MIGHT LIMP AND CLOUD THINGS UP EARLY. SOME MODELS ALSO HAVE STORMS FIRING EARLIER IN THE DAY BEFORE MAIN LINE OF STORM WITH FRONT MOVES IN. THOUGH THESE ARE POSSIBILITIES...DO THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUN FOR FORECAST HIGHS. LOOKS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MODELS SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE AT LEAST COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURE TRENDS FOR THE EXTENDED. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM THE CANADIAN FOREST FIRES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ABOVE 850 MB WITH AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE. ONLY A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. HRRR WIND GUST INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...AND AROUND 20 MPH ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY AROUND 10 MPH. MARINE... WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...THE LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE SLOWLY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD NOT DECREASE MUCH...BUT STILL SHOULD BE MAINLY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY. AS DEW POINTS RISE FOG MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE...SO WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR NOW TODAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 061546 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1046 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...LEAD ELONGATED BAND OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. HAVE BEEN BEHAVING AND EXPECT THEM TO STAY THAT WAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM SO PROJECTED INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO GET AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT FOR ANY LATER DAY/EVENING PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES POOR AS WELL. UPSTREAM STRATUS IS A CONCERN WITH LLVL RH GETTING A BIT MOIST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE NAM MOS CIG HGT/SREF CIG PROBS ARE SUGGESTING. FRONT COMES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH THERMAL TROUGH TAKING HOLD WITH 850 CAA INTO TUESDAY. PC && .MARINE...WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR THIS AFTN AND EVE. THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO TURN MORE MIXY REST OF THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST WI MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND AFFECT NEARSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SRN WI. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE UPPER 50S. WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS INTO TONIGHT. WL BE WATCHING SHORE WEBCAMS CLOSELY IN CASE FOG THICKENS. MAY NEED TO ISSUE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY AS WOULD EXPECT FOG TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR WHEN SHOWERS AND STORMS CLEANSE FOG FOR A TIME. MBK && .BEACHES...WL CONTINUE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTIES THIS AFTN AND EVE. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CURRENTLY THINNING CIRRUS SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST WI SLOWING DOWN MIXING BUT SOME THINNING EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER BEACHGOERS WL NEED TO KEEP EYE ON RADAR AS THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST WI...MAY AFFECT LAKE MI SHORE DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STORMS DURING THE EVE. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ UPDATE...RAMPED UP POPS IN WESTERN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA. STORMS BEHAVING THEMSELVES SO FAR WITH VERY WARM COLUMN AND LESS THAN IDEAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR A BIT BETTER IN WESTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. PC PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH A RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE REACHES LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES TO 65 KNOTS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE FLOW IS DIFFLUENT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. AS A RESULT THE UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TOWARD EVENING. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TODAY AND REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE GFS BRINGS A 50 KNOT 700 MB JET MAX INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS INCREASE TO ALMOST 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND DURING THE AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST. 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM RESULTING IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.6 CELSIUS/KM...WHILE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8 CELSIUS/KM BY MID AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY EVENING. ZERO TO 1 KM MIXED LAYER CAPE RISES TO AROUND 1200 JOULES/KG ON THE GFS BY MID AFTERNOON. ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS RATHER LOW...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MOST OF THE MESO MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF THE UPSTREAM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...WITH A SECOND STRONG AREA DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TOWARD EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 2.1 INCHES. THEREFORE THE LINE OF STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE WEAK BUT WITH A LINEAR SYSTEM WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO NORTH OF MADISON...TO JEFFERSON AND LAKE GENEVA. THIS WOULD BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK...AS THE INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE THE STORMS REACH THE FAR EAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THOUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY...MOVING BY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. KEPT POPS LOW PER CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS THOUGH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST. SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE/WED. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A SHORTWAVE TO BRING SHOWER STORM CHANCES BY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. MORE WAVES RIDING THROUGH BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT IN WAVE PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETWEEN MODELS...SO CHANCE POPS ARE SPREAD OUT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...THEN POSSIBLY EVEN SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. NOT A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS THOUGH DUE TO TIMING OF WAVES AND RESULTANT CLOUDS/PRECIP. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...STILL LOOKING AT TREND OF LATEST HRRR AND PREVIOUS NAM RUNS OF BRINGING A LEAD BAND OF DYING CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THEN EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN MVFR/IFR IN THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT. MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THUS WILL LEAVE TIMING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS IS. PRIOR TO WINDS PICKING UP...COULD SEE SOME HAZE/FOG THAT REDUCES VSBYS UNDER 5 MILES...AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG. THEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. BEACHES... BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND 4 FOOT WAVES WILL BRING A HIGH SWIM RISK TO LAKE MICHIGAN IN SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK TO THE SOUTH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052- 060. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 130232 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 932 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .UPDATE...STILL EXPECT UPSTREAM SEVERE/NEAR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MN TO TAKE A TURN SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT DRAPED ACROSS SE MN/ERN IA/WRN WI. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF OVER WRN MN AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET SHOULD CARRY CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. THINKING HRRR AND NAMNEST HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTION AS NAM HAD GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INTIATION LOCATION WITH REGARDS TO MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE IN THE AFTN. WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM TOO FAR NORTH WITH ON-GOING CONVECTION AND LIKELY TO BE TOO SLOW. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON PERIOD FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z. NOT RULING OUT ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF MAIN LINE DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...INCREASING LOW LEVEL AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LIKELY TO CAUSE AREAS OF STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN WRN CWA. CIG HEIGHTS FLIRTING WITH 3K FEET SO WL LIKELY HAVE TO HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION AFFECTING TAF SITES...ESTIMATED MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS ESTIMATE OF LAKE SURFACE TEMP MEASURED TEMPS IN THE 63 TO 66 RANGE OFFSHORE. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECTED PATCHY FOG TO TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY. EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT LIKELY TO REDUCE THE FOG FOR A TIME BUT MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ND/ WESTERN MN WILL EXPAND INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND EVENTUALLY CROSS SOUTHERN WI...PROBABLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM. THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR MODEL VARIABILITY MEANING THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL TRACK. SPC IS FAVORING THE TRACK WHERE THE STORMS DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND SOUTHWEST WI... CLOSEST TO THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS IS A MORE COMMON OCCURRENCE WITH STORMS. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE BULK OF THE STORMS COULD TRACK DUE EAST WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CROSS CENTRAL WI. BOTH SCENARIOS IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING... SO INCREASED THE POPS AND KEPT THE MENTION OF CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND. ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE OVER 4000 J/KG WITH MODERATE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MANY OF THE MODELS DELAY THE SYSTEM REACHING SOUTHERN WI UNTIL 09Z OR LATER. THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE FOR THE FORECAST. THERE IS A HAIL THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MONDAY AFTERNOON... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. WE ARE KEEPING OUR EYES ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THE 12Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING HIGH CAPE WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY. IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP... STORMS SHOULD BE SUPERCELLULAR AND QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS DEVELOP THE STORMS IN CENTRAL WI BUT THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST WI. SPC UPGRADED THE SOUTH HALF OF THE MKX AREA TO AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THIS EVENT. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STAY TUNED. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTHEAST EARLY DURING THE EVENING. MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE GFS WILL STILL BE AROUND 2200 JOULES/KG WITH ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KNOTS. THE NAM DIMINISHES THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOONER...BEING MAINLY SOUTH OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MONDAY EVENING. THE MID LEVELS DRY BY MID EVENING AS LOW AND MID LEVELS WINDS BECOME WEST. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AFTER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A WEAKENING 85 KNOT 250 MB JET ACROSS ILLINOIS THAT SAGS A BIT SOUTH. THE GFS SHARPENS THE 700 MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AFTER IT EXITS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE 700 MB RH DRIES TUESDAY BUT 850 MB LEVELS REMAIN MOIST WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 16 CELSIUS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EAST SECTIONS AND SPREAD INLAND DUE TO THE COOLER AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AFTERNOON CAPES RANGE FROM 1200 NORTHEAST TO 2000 JOULES/KG. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...AND THERE IS ONLY A MINIMAL CAP. THE GFS NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A STRONG TRIGGER IS LACKING...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 700 MB FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT AS THE 850 MB RIDGE MOVES TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW BEGINS TOWARD EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...AND EVEN SOME MID 40S NORTH AREAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON...OVER INLAND AREAS. LONG TERM... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ONE OR TWO WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RECEDES TO THE EAST...A RETURN FLOW RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH A MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER WITH A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE LINGERING NORTH OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS KEEPING CLOUD BASES IN THE MVFR RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. I AM EXPECTING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN SOUTHERN WI AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL STORMS ARRIVE AFTER ABOUT 08 OR 09Z MONDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A LINE OF STRONG STORMS TO TRACK OUT OF MN AND HEAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WI EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND EVENT AND WE COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND WITH THE LINE. ANY OF THE HEAVIER STORMS WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY OUR ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER DURING THE DAY MONDAY... ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THESE COULD BE SEVERE. MARINE... AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS... APPARENT ON WEBCAMS AND SOMEWHAT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. VISIBILITY WILL BE 1 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE CHANCE FOR FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE REGION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 010226 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 926 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015 .UPDATE...TEMPS DROPPED RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING SO LOWERED MINIMUM SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT BAY. LIKELY TO BE SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST CLOSER TO RIDGELINE AND MOIST MARINE LAYER. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...FOG LIKELY TO AFFECT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT LAKESHORE FOR A TIME...HOWEVER LAKESHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...KEEPING MOST OF THE LAKE FOG AT/OFF SHORE. DEWPTS ABOUT 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGH AFTERNOON CROSS OVER TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES LIKELY TO ALLOW FOG TO DROP VSBYS TO MVFR. WL CONTINUE IFR VSBYS AT KENW DUE TO HIGH CROSS OVER TEMP AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RIDGELINE. BETTER LOW LEVEL MIXING LIKELY TO KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY ELSEWHERE. RECENT ASCENT KMKE TAMDAR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG MIXING ABOUT 1K FEET OFF SURFACE. && .MARINE...LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE FOG RAPIDLY EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY LAKESHORE WEBCAMS. MODIS IMAGERY ESTIMATED NEARSHORE LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S DURING THE AFTN. RECENT UPWELLING INCIDENT HAS CAUSED THE COOL WATER TO SURFACE AS OFF SHORE LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. WITH THE WARM...MOIST AIR STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK...BOUTS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SURFACE WATER TEMP WARMS AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STRATUS DECK MORPHED INTO CU FIELD. EXPECT THIS TO DIURNALLY DISSIPATE. FOG POTENTIAL STILL THERE WITH OVERALL LIGHT WIND REGIME AND HIGH DEW POINTS. HOWEVER THERE IS A BIT MORE STIRRING OFF THE DECK SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO BE A CONCERN. MOS TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH AFTER ANY MORNING FOG ERODES 925/850 THERMAL RIDGE LEANS INTO THE CWA WITH 925 TEMPS REACHING THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SO EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING 90. EVOLVING ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL DROP TEMPS BACK A BIT LAKESIDE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU NT.. A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN USA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE RIDGING AREA. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL OR SRN WI FOR LATE WED INTO THU. MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG FOR WED AFT WITH LITTLE CAPPING...BUT ALSO LITTLE TO NO SFC CONVERGENCE. SOME MODELS DO HAVE QPF AT TIMES ALTHOUGH MODEL AND MOS POP GUIDANCE IS VERY LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED NT AND THU. HIGH TEMPS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG AND CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE THIS OUT FOR THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A VERY WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS SMALL CHANCES OF TSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES BUT WILL INCREASE ON LABOR DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN AT THIS TIME. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...MVFR CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND GUID STILL SUGGESTING FOG DEVELOPS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE METMOS ON VSBY TRENDS. 850/925 THERMAL RIDGE STARTS TO LEAN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SW FLOW. NAM SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH CU POTENTIAL. MARINE...WEAK FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIRMASS OVER COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE. SOME UPTICK IN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY BUT TRAJ FAVORS KEEPING FOG...SOME DENSE...IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING LONGER IN NORTHERN ZONES INTO TUE NGT. WITH GRADIENT LOOKING OVERALL WEAK FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEAK MAY BE SEEING MORE OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HEADLINES AS THE WEEK MOVES ALONG. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644>646. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ UPDATE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 030312 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 912 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016 .UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. FEW FLURRIES NOTED ON KDLH RADAR MOVING INTO NORTHWEST WI BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF CWA THRU THE NIGHT. SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS MAY SLOW DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES MAY GET SHAKEN OUT OF THE CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN WI. SFC WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BELOW STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING...MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP UP MIN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER N WI...IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS S WI ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. OVC MVFR AND IFR CIGS BEING REPORTED VIA ASOS METAR SITES IN N WI. CIGS BETWEEN 2.0 TO 2.5KFT WERE REPORTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...WITH LOWER CIGS FARTHER NORTH. EXPECTING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS STRATUS DECK TO ARRIVE AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO VEER FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH S WI...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS FOR THE MKE AND ENW TAF SITES. && .MARINE...WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO EVEN INCREASE A LITTLE AS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TUG MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS ON ITS JOURNEY. FOR NOW LEFT ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUN THROUGH 15Z...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS FURTHER IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO SLOWLY DECREASING WINDS ON SUNDAY. RECENT MODIS IMAGE ESTIMATES THE LAKE MICHIGAN SURFACE TEMP TO BE IN THE 35 TO 40 RANGE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY NEED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS TROF PASSAGE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT JAN 2 2016/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WERE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MODELS HAVE THIS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...REACHING THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. THEY SHOULD THEN LINGER SUNDAY...BELOW THE STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE LOWS SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT. WENT WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ON SUNDAY...NEAR BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY LATER TONIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN SUNDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THE GFS DIGS THE CANADIAN TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BECOMING DOWNWARD. 700 MB RH IS LOW. 850 MB RH IS HIGH INITIALLY...BUT DRIES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN LATER MONDAY. THIS CAUSES THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTH AND BRINGS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CLOSE TO THE WESTERN SHORE ON THE 12Z THEN WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS BRIEFLY BRINGS LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MILWAUKEE INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB WITH MOISTURE INCREASING MONDAY MORNING AS THE INVERSION LOWERS TO NEAR 850 MB. ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THE MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAKENS. THE 700 MB RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION BUT THE MID LAYERS REMAIN DRY. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA LATER MONDAY BEGINNING A SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRY. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH JUST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE HAVE NO PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A WEAK MAINLY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE WEAKENING FURTHER OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOISTENS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION AFFECTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SNOW TO MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA REGION FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE MORE MODERATE ON THE GFS. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AT MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AT MADISON AND WAUKESHA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT TAF SITES UNTIL 03Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 45 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. AN AREA OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CATEGORY CEILINGS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL GO. FOR NOW...WILL USE AROUND 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR LOWER CEILINGS...SOME BELOW 1000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL...TO OCCUR. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN UNTIL 15Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW 22 KNOTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THIS THRESHOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTS NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL THEN VEER NORTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN. HIGH WAVES MAY OCCUR MONDAY...AS THE WINDS TURN ONSHORE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE PUBLIC/MARINE...MBK UPDATE AVIATION...JTS TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HENTZ  FXUS63 KMKX 050946 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 346 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CARRY LAKE STRATUS AWAY FROM WESTERN LAKE MI SHORE THIS MRNG. ALSO NEED TO KEEP EYE ON LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE INCREASING WINDS MAY CARRY STRATUS TOWARD NORTHWEST CWA THRU THE EARLY MRNG. OTRW NOT SEEING MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. 925H TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -5C. WITH HIGH ALBEDO...THINKING DAYTIME TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN WI WL REMAIN DRY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM UPSTREAM WEAK LIFT TO CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TNGT. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM LAYER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARY DEEP AND IS MAXING OUT AT 1-2C...SO JUST WENT WITH MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THE SNOW IN THE SOUTH. MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND ALL RAIN SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAINLY RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS THUS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO GENERALLY LOW END SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES...BUT IT MAINLY LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 10 TO 15 RANGE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN SOME OF THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING UP TO AROUND 5 BY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS MIGHT BE A FACTOR TOO...WITH CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON LAKE STRATUS THAT IS TICKLING PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL LAKESHORE. SO FAR IT HAS NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2.5-3K FT BUT WINDS AROUND THIS LEVEL INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. RECENT DESCENT AMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWING S WINDS JUST ABV THE SURFACE AROUND 10KTS. HENCE THINKING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT KENW AND KMKE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW BULK OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND START TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST WI MOVING MOSTLY NWD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. && .MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT FURTHER INTO WED IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 051628 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1028 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 .UPDATE... NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT FOG TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS TO CARRY LAKE STRATUS AWAY FROM WESTERN LAKE MI SHORE THIS MRNG. ALSO NEED TO KEEP EYE ON LARGE STRATUS FIELD OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. THESE INCREASING WINDS MAY CARRY STRATUS TOWARD NORTHWEST CWA THRU THE EARLY MRNG. OTRW NOT SEEING MUCH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. 925H TEMPS WARM TO AROUND -5C. WITH HIGH ALBEDO...THINKING DAYTIME TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF PLAINS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT. COLUMN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN WI WL REMAIN DRY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM UPSTREAM WEAK LIFT TO CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR TNGT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TO KICK OFF PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS WHAT THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE. CONSENSUS OF MODELS WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM LAYER DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARY DEEP AND IS MAXING OUT AT 1-2C...SO JUST WENT WITH MENTION OF SLEET ALONG WITH THE SNOW IN THE SOUTH. MILDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THURSDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND ALL RAIN SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. MILDER WEDGE OF AIR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MAINLY RAIN IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN BEHIND THE LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. A SLOW TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS THUS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...SO GENERALLY LOW END SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES...BUT IT MAINLY LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 10 TO 15 RANGE ARE SEVERAL DEGREES MILDER THAN SOME OF THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS STRUGGLING UP TO AROUND 5 BY MONDAY. WIND CHILLS MIGHT BE A FACTOR TOO...WITH CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...KEEPING CLOSE EYE ON LAKE STRATUS THAT IS TICKLING PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL LAKESHORE. SO FAR IT HAS NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND. LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2.5-3K FT BUT WINDS AROUND THIS LEVEL INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. RECENT DESCENT AMDAR SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWING S WINDS JUST ABV THE SURFACE AROUND 10KTS. HENCE THINKING THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SCT-BKN CIGS AT KENW AND KMKE EARLY THIS MORNING...OTRW BULK OF STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE AND START TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. OTHER AREA OF STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST WI MOVING MOSTLY NWD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLD TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. MARINE...RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. MAY NEED TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT FURTHER INTO WED IN LATER SHIFTS DUE TO LINGERING HIGHER WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 052134 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 334 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT FAR TONIGHT... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH 32 TO 35 IN MOST AREAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS WILL REACH IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH LOW/MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR THE VORTICITY ADVECTION TO OVERCOME ON WEDNESDAY... SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WEAKER OF THE TWO PUSHING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW. AS STRONG 850 FLOW PUMPS MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE SATURATED BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN SATURATED WELL INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFT...EXPECT THE SEE PRECIP FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. WHEN THE PRECIP MOVES IN THE PROFILE IN THE NORTH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW WHILE SLEET AND SNOW IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY MID DAY THURSDAY...ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TO SWITCH MOST OF THE CWA RAIN IN THE SOUTH. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC TEMPS WILL FLOAT VERY NEAR FREEZING. HOWEVER...SUPERBLEND IS SHOWING TEMPS ELEVATING ABOVE FREEZING BY 18Z...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO WILL LEAVE THAT OUT. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS MORE LIKELY. BY FRIDAY MORNING AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL BE ON TOP OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP IN BEHIND THE LOW. THIS SLUG OF COLD AIR SHOULD SWITCH MOST OF THE PRECIP TO SNOW BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AS THE LOW MOVES OUT...A ROBUST COLD CORE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. SUPERBLEND BRINGS IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...AND SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. ANOTHER CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WIND CHILLS...WHICH MAY DROP AS LOW AS 20 BELOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TONIGHT SO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WI UNTIL WED NIGHT. && .MARINE... RECENT MODIS IMAGERY FROM MONDAY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HENCE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE OPEN WATER. HENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 15Z WED. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BSH  FXUS63 KMKX 060840 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. EXPECT INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. HENCE WILL CONFINE PATCHY LIGHT FOG MENTION TO EARLY MRNG AS PATCHY...THIN FOG WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WARM...SOUTH BREEZES TODAY. LOW LEVEL MIXING AND 925H TEMPS AROUND 23-24C AND MORE UNIFORM SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD WARM TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 THIS AFTN. THE WARM DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S MOST AREAS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND THIS AFTN SO LAKESHORE AREAS WILL WARM AS WELL. PLANNING ON KEEPING ANY POPS TODAY CONFINED TO FAR WEST AS CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PULLING COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN WI BY LATE TONIGHT. ALREADY DEEP COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY PWAT VALUES FLIRTING WITH 2 INCHES LATER TONIGHT IN WRN CWA WHICH IS CLIMBING TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. PWAT VALUES AT THIS LEVEL MEASURING 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ACROSS SRN WI BY 12Z/7. FORTUNATELY...SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT COMES ACROSS SRN WI LATER TONIGHT INTO MON MRNG. LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENING AND PIVOTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH MAIN MID- LEVEL WAVE. SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF WAVE AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP TO CARRY WEAKENING UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI OVERNIGHT SO WL CONTINUE HIGH POPS IN THIS AREA. BETTER CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST WI MAINLY AFT 12Z/7. MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WX AT BEST IN WEST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5.5 TO 6 RANGE WITH WEAK BULK SHEAR AND DECREASING ELEVATED CAPE. FAR WESTERN CWA LATER TONIGHT .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHORTWAVE PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THIS IN COMBO WITH LINGERING INFLUENCE OF 850 SW JET WILL LIKELY KEEP BEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING WITH THE HELP OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE 850 JET IS EXITING AND THE SHORTWAVE IS OFF TO THE EAST. SO LESS FORCING IN PLAY THOUGH SURFACE/850 BOUNDARIES STILL IN THE AREA SO WILL KEEP POPS GOING ALL DAY IN CASE ANYTHING CAN GET GOING. HOWEVER CONCERNED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP AIRMASS FROM DESTABILIZING TOO MUCH. SO AFTERNOON COVERAGE DOESN/T LOOK GREAT AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MIDDAY LULL WITH BULLSEYE ACROSS SE WI DURG THE AFTN. MEANWHILE THE NAM SHOWS BULK OF AFTN DVLPMT ACRS NRN IL WITH THE GFS MORE OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND IS PROGGD TO MOVE NE ALONG SURFACE/850 BOUNDARY. 850 WIND MAX COMES INTO PLAY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED RIGHT REAR QUAD DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHWEST 250 MILLIBAR JET MAX ON EASTERN SIDE OF ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS. POTENTIAL THERE FOR SOME HEFTY RAINFALL TOTALS WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE...DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW WITH SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST FOR TUESDAY EVENING WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND KEEPS PRECIP LONGER THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. .WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WITH THE FRONT AND LOW PUSHING OFF INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THE PROGS SHOW A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD THIS PERIOD WITH WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY NOTED. SO PER COLLAB WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE ELECTED TO GO DRY THIS PERIOD. .THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER FROM THE 12Z RUN AND IS NOW IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ACTIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE GEM NOW THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW ACROSS WI/IA FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS STILL CONSENSUS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT WAVES RIDING THROUGH. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THESE WAVES ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IN PRIOR RUNS AS THEY ARE NOW SHOWING MORE OF A NORTHERN LOW POSITION WITH LESS OVERALL QPF. MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME WITH 850 TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME WEAK WAA IS THEN NOTED FOR SATURDAY AS 850 WINDS START TO TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTION TO AFFECT KMSN UNTIL THIS EVENING AT THE EARLIEST...AND LATE TONIGHT INTO MON MRNG ACROSS THE EAST. MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS INTO KMSN WITH T THREAT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING. && .MARINE...SHORELINE WEBCAMS REMAIN CLEAR OF DENSE FOG. SOME LIGHT FOG SHOWING UP AT KENOSHA HARBOR. RECENT NEARSHORE LAKE SURFACE WATER TEMP AS MEASURED BY RECENT MODIS IMAGES AND ATWATER BEACH BUOY SHOWS TEMP HAS WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS... MORE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS IS STILL RELATIVELY COOL COMPARED TO CURRENT SURFACE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SO AREAS OF FOG STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LOWER POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TODAY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION WILL PREVENT STRONGEST GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE. HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS MAY AFFECT SGNW3 THIS AFTN AND EVE WHERE ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS ABOUT 60FT ABOVE SITE ELEVATION. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 22KTS IN THIS MARINE ZONE. && .BEACHES...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AFFECTING LAKE MI BEACHES. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FROM PORT WASHINGTON NORTH TO SHEBOYGAN RESULTING IN A MODERATE SWIM RISK AT BEACHES IN THESE AREAS. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED SO STAY AWAY FROM DANGEROUS AREAS LIKE PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 150928 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 328 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. A BEAUTIFUL DAY LIES AHEAD WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT PENETRATION INLAND. 925H TEMPS IN THE 11-13C RANGE LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD MOST LOCATION...IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. HENCE WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WARMING TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S. MILDER START AND WARMER LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PROPEL TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY 21Z SO BUMPED UP THE HIGH TEMP MOST LOCATIONS. REMAINED MORE CONSERVATIVE RIGHT AT THE LAKESHORE HOWEVER. SHOULD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM LONG WAVE TROF WILL NUDGE PROTECTIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WILL CARRY INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WEAK...BUT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION ABV 4K FEET TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER CWA...WITH BEST CHANCE IN THE WEST. COLUMN PWAT OVER WEST INCREASES AROUND 0.25 INCH BY 12Z. .MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES AND TIMING DURING THIS PERIOD. A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY...AS THE MAIN CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB REMAINS OVER THE REGION...HELPING GRADUALLY TRANSPORT MORE COLUMN MOISTURE. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS GRADUAL SATURATION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL APPEAR HIGHEST IN THE WEST MONDAY MORNING...THEN OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN. THUS...KEPT TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ARE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT...NEAR CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850 MB FLOW WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT/LOW LEVEL JET POINTS INTO THE AREA AND GETS ROBUST DURING THIS TIME. THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI/SOUTHWEST IOWA AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE MODEL VARIATION HERE WITH THE EXACT TRACK. STILL...SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL AND BEGIN TO OCCLUDE...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS WITH SURFACE AND 500 MB LOW TRACKS...WHICH WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT VERSUS THE SLOWER NAM. ROBUST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS SEEN WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITHIN A DEEPLY SATURATED AIR COLUMN. THUS...CONTINUED HIGH POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME LIGHT QPF SHOWS UP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE DRY SLOT ALSO PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. THERE SHOULD BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MORE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A 500 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WOULD GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A SIMILAR SYSTEM TO THE GFS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA. WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR NOW...GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ITS TRACK COULD EASILY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH. STAY TUNED. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... RECENT TAMDAR DESCENT SOUNDING INTO KMKE VERIFYING STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS SO BUMPED UP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR VALUES IN TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS TAF SITES LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE SURGE OF MOISTURE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMSN OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR TNGT. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW LLWS THRESHOLD TNGT. && .MARINE... RECENT MODIS SATELLITE IMAGING EQUIPMENT MEASURED COOL LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 40-45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH ATWATER BUOY HAS BEEN PULLED FOR THE WINTER...INFOS EQUIPMENT AT PORT WASHINGTON MEASURED A LAKE SFC TEMP OF 45F AT THE WATER TREATMENT PLANT EARLY THIS MRNG. SUNSHINE AND LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MRNG...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY LAKE BREEZE FROM MAKING INROADS INLAND. HOWEVER TIGHT GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE THIS AFTN APPROACHING 20F AND WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP RIGHT AT THE SHORE. HENCE WINDS MAY BE VARYING BETWEEN SW AND SSE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT SHORE LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE GALE WARNINGS LOOK LIKELY FROM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 151555 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1055 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 .UPDATE... LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THE BROKEN/OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... THEN JUST SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS CENTRAL WI LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND USHERS COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE MIX... WIND GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... BKN/OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE WI BORDER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. FEW- SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5-6 KFT SHOULD THEN FORM FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE LATE. BREEZY AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z/1 PM AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS... BUT NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AROUND 1500 FEET AGL. && .MARINE... EXPECT SPRINKLES TO FURTHER DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST WINDS MIXING DOWN TO LAND SURFACE. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CONFIRMED BY ATWATER BUOY THIS MORNING. HENCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL ALSO ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...EVEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AS COLDER AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKE. WL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSTING AT 16Z...BUT GUSTIER WINDS MAY BE DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO DUE TO SPRINKLES AND LINGERING MID- CLOUDS ACROSS SRN MARINE ZONES. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES CURRENTLY OVER SW WI AND ADJACENT STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS IS THE CATALYST FOR THE CLOUDS AND LGT PCPN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT ONLY FEW-SCT CUMULUS DUE TO DRY AIR ADVECTION. NWLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TNT. DID NOT MENTION FROST FOR TNT AS WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY AND LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IS EXPECTED THOUGH...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED MOST PLACES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP AS THE HIGH HEADS EASTWARD. HIGHS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AND THE DEPARTING HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND...AS THE BLEND WAS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. IF CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND TEMPS ALOFT HOLD...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE LOW 70S BY TUESDAY. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE THOUGH...SO DID NOT GO QUITE THAT WARM. HAVE KEPT SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...AS A WAVE OR TWO AHEAD OF THE LOW AND THEN THE EVENTUAL LOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BRING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A PERIOD OF BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL OCCUR. FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL THEN FORM FOR THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TNT WITH FEW- SCT STRATOCUMULUS POSSIBLE LATE. FOR WINDS...BREEZY AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 16Z TODAY UNTIL 23Z ON FRI. BREEZY AND GUSTY WLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AND VEER NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED. BRISK AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE THU NT AND FRI. HIGH WAVES WILL OCCUR OVER THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 151946 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 245 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2015 .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKED SOUTHEAST THROUGH WI TODAY ALONG A POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WIND GUSTS ARE PEAKING RIGHT NOW UP TO 35 MPH. DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH WE MIX... CANNOT RULE OUT EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY DARK... BUT EXPECT OVERALL WINDS TO BE IN THE 7 TO 15 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN SOME LIGHTNING/THUNDER IN THESE DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. THEY COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN MKX AREA COUNTIES FROM GREEN LAKE TO SHEBOYGAN THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW LOW CLOUDS COULD SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL WI LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/CAA/ WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH 925MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0C TO 2C. THIS YIELDS MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT... COLDEST INLAND. KEPT FROST OUT OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS WILL BE STEADY IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRI AM. PLAN ON PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS ONLY RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S. .FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. FOCUS OF THIS PERIOD ON TEMPERATURES...AS BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WRN CONUS WILL HAVE USHERED COLD 925H TEMPS AROUND 0C ACROSS SRN WI BY 00Z/SUN. THE THERMAL TROF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUN MRNG WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION DUE TO AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER SRN WI. JET AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EWD LATER SUNDAY ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE THERMAL TROF LINGERING OVER EASTERN CWA FRI NIGHT...LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS SPARSE. EXPECT A MODERATE INVERSION TO SET UP...SO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS OF 6 KTS OR LESS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF THE CWA. ONLY AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN AROUND FREEZING. HENCE WILL POST FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...LIKELY TO BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNING IN LATER FORECASTS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY END THE GROWING SEASON OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY. EXPECT SCT-BKN CIRRUS TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO UPSTREAM STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. .EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDECE...MEDIUM. PROTECTIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET NUDGED EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL HAVE COMMENCED ON SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO ABATE ON MONDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE 850H TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED 12-14C. APPEARS AIRMASS OVER SRN WI TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN PINCHED OFF DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WL EVENTUALLY PULL DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LONG TERM GUIDANCE BRINGING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS WESTERN GTLAKES IN THE WED TIME PERIOD. HENCE WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS IN THE TUE NGT THRU WED NGT TIME PERIODS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO FOR NOW WL NOT INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER. UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST AROUND THIS TIME WL KEEP UPPER MIDWEST WAVE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. 925H TEMPS WARM INTO THE 12 TO 17C RANGE ON MONDAY AND REMAIN MILD THRU WED BEFORE COOLING. EXPECTING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER BUT DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD MANAGE TO RETURN TO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EVEN BY THE LAKESHORE. GFS 5 DAY 500MB MEANS SHOWING LARGE NEGATIVE ANOMOLY FORMING OVER WRN CONUS BY 00Z/26TH WITH POSITIVE ANOMOLY OVER GREAT LAKES DIMINISHING TO TENDING TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM PLUME SHOWS TEMPS TEMPORARILY COOLING OFF FOR THE LAST DAYS OF OCT BUT RECOVERING A BIT IN EARLY NOV. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 6-7 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF MADISON AND MILWAUKEE UNTIL SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VFR STRATOCUMULUS WITH CIGS AROUND 5 KFT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF MADISON AND KENOSHA. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS... BUT NW WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AROUND 1500 FEET AGL. THIS IS MARGINAL LLWS SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... VERY GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE SURFACE TEMP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...CONFIRMED BY ATWATER BUOY THIS MORNING. HENCE STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL ALLOW HIGHER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...EVEN WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AS COLDER AIR POURS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FREEZE WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT FRIDAY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. $$ TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 160841 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 341 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. DRY AIR WILL HOLD SWAY OVER ERN CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR GETS REPLACED BY RAPID SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 0.75 INCH WL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND EVE. COMBINATION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA AND PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD WI ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL WI THIS MRNG. MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFN AND EVE AS SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS CROSS SRN WI. HENCE CONTINUED LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS INTO THE EVE USING OCNL PHRASING. SFC WMFNT DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION WL MOVE NWD BUT MAY HAVE TOUGH TIME CROSSING INTO WI DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER CONSIDERING OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS...CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES AND DEPTH OF WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 925-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH 850-300 MB FLOW NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS OVER 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...SO HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE LATER TODAY. CAPE VALUES MAY INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHEAR PROFILE QUITE FAVORABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ROTATING SUPERCELL LATE AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHTER WINDS AND POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. .SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SPEAK OF IS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...NOR ANY REAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALOFT. SOME MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DESPITE THIS. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT IN LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL...AS ADJUSTED AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH HIGH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT IN LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MAY END UP DRY WITH LACK OF DECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FEATURE ALOFT TO BRING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS ALSO FAIRLY CAPPED. HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. SPC HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR DAY 3...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING BROAD 500 MB TROUGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD THEN SEE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER/REMOVE THEM IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WOULD ALSO BE ON TAP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND HOLDS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TSTORMS. DEEPENING MOISTURE NORTH OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WL RESULT IN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. && .MARINE... MODIS IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMP IN THE LOWER 60S. HENCE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WNDS OFF COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION PREVENTING GUSTIER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. WMFNT WL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MI THRU THIS EVE DUE TO CONVECTION BUT WINDS MAY TURN OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT BUT MAY BE A WINDOW OF SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT FOG/HAZE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME PREVALENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY UNTIL COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND. && .BEACHES... SOUTHEAST WINDS WL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET. HENCE A MODERATE SWIM RISK CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS. LATE DAY SWIMMERS SHOULD EXPECT TO STAY AWAY FROM PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EASING THE SWIM RISK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 160933 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF WILL PULL INCREASING DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COLUMN PWAT NEARLY DOUBLES IN NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO IA/MN AHEAD OF STRONGER DAKOTAS WAVE. SEVERAL WEAKER PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF -SHRA TODAY. THE FIRST HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED -SHRA IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD END EARLY BUT EXPECT UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE OVER NRN MO/WRN IA AREA TO TRIGGER MORE -SHRA OVER SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR -SHRA LATER TODAY. LIKELY TO BE A BREAK IN THE -SHRA THREAT FROM LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE BUT WITH PERSISTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE FOR -SHRA IN THRU THE LATE NGT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD T. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY MORNING WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK... BUT THE STRONG LLJ FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD AID IN PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDER. THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AND COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI WED MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BY WED AFTERNOON... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIXING AND THUS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. .LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THU. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WED NIGHT AND THU... BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW. IF IT SNOWS... A HALF INCH OR LESS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS OUT OF PHASE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF... BUT STAYS IN PHASE WITH THE GFS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE LATTER TWO MODELS PRODUCE A SWATH OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI FRI NIGHT WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS US DRY. THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO FLIP FLOP WITH THIS FORECAST A COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE COMING INTO AGREEMENT DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW BEHAVIOR... SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE VERY LOW. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THE LATTER PERIODS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST DO NOT HOLD ANY WEIGHT. THE ECWMF FAVORS A WARM SOLUTION WITH RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO COLD AND FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AND MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. THIS LOWER CIGS MAY NOT RECUPERATE DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA WANE BUT PERSISTENT SLY WINDS MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT AS MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS TOWARD/INTO SRN WI. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SSE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND BUILDING WAVES. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND PORT WASHINGTON INFOS MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH. SOME FOG MAY HAVE TIME TO DEVELOP BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER...MOIST AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE MI AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 161434 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 934 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015 .UPDATE... OTHER THAN PASSING CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER. FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TOMORROW AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGERY FROM LATE EVENING THURSDAY CONTINUED TO SHOW LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LATEST ATWATER BUOY TEMP MEASURED 57 DEGREES CONFIRMING MODIS INSTRUMENT MEASUREMENT. COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CREATED BY THE MILDER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO REACH THE LAKE SURFACE TODAY. DESPITE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...SOME MESOMODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 22-25 KNOTS LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LASTS THROUGH 6 PM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING...WITH NEW AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER WAVE WITH THE FRONT AND IT MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE OCCURRING. COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING DEPICTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. THE INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER ERN WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C YIELDS HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S. FOR TNT...THE POLAR HIGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL REACH THE MS RIVER BY 12Z SAT. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TNT BUT BECOME WEAKER WITH A WEAKENING WIND FIELD. THUS RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE A FACTOR IN AN ALREADY COOL AIRMASS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING AT THE LAKE TO MID TO UPPER 20S INLAND AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH FROST ALREADY FORMING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. COOL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S OVER THE AREA...LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THIS TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHTER. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER 925 MB TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S SUNDAY...WITH LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOWS. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMING ZONAL DURING THIS TIME...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. GFS ALSO SHOWS WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY...WITH GUSTS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE WINDS...SO LEANED TOWARD CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL VALUES OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THOSE FOR NOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN STALLS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS THEN BRINGS LOW PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS TIMING WITH THE LOW...AND BRINGS IT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL POPS FOR MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SCT-BKN CLOUDS FROM 5-8 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTERWARD DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT035-050 BUT WITH PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER ERN WI FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES FOR TNT. MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM DUE TO BRISK AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE TODAY AND TNT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 161527 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1027 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...ADVANCING PRECIPITATION RUNNING INTO LINGERING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS RAIN AREA INTO SRN WI THIS AFTN. CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO LOWER BUT EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS TO EVOLVE TONIGHT. MESO MODELS DO SHOW SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE LARGELY PREDICATED ON ANY UPSTREAM CLEARING WHICH LOOKS QUESTIONABLE ATTM BASED ON VSBL IMAGERY. SURFACE TROUGH PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING UPSTAIRS SO PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS PRETTY LOW WITH ANY LINGERING MORNING STRATUS/FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. PC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. DRY AIR WILL HOLD SWAY OVER ERN CWA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR GETS REPLACED BY RAPID SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 0.75 INCH WL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTN AND EVE. COMBINATION OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IA AND PIVOTING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD WI ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER SPREADING INTO S CENTRAL WI THIS MRNG. MORE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFN AND EVE AS SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET AXIS CROSS SRN WI. HENCE CONTINUED LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS INTO THE EVE USING OCNL PHRASING. SFC WMFNT DRAPED ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION WL MOVE NWD BUT MAY HAVE TOUGH TIME CROSSING INTO WI DUE TO EXPECTED CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY. HOWEVER CONSIDERING OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS...CAN NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PWAT VALUES AND DEPTH OF WARM CLOUD LAYER...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH 925-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALIGNED WITH 850-300 MB FLOW NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS OVER 2 INCHES IN 3 HOURS...SO HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 5 TO 6 DEGREE RANGE LATER TODAY. CAPE VALUES MAY INCREASE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG AS SHEAR PROFILE QUITE FAVORABLE SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED ROTATING SUPERCELL LATE AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SYNOPTIC FORCING SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. LIGHTER WINDS AND POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS SHOWING PRECIPITATION MOVING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. NO REAL SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SPEAK OF IS SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY...NOR ANY REAL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALOFT. SOME MODELS SHOWING LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DESPITE THIS. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...REMOVED POPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT IN LOW POPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP DRY AS WELL...AS ADJUSTED AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH HIGH LEVELS OF FREE CONVECTION. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEFT IN LOW POPS FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN MAY END UP DRY WITH LACK OF DECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FEATURE ALOFT TO BRING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS ALSO FAIRLY CAPPED. HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT...LINGERING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE MAY KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS COOLER. SPC HAS PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR DAY 3...SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF MEAN LAYER CAPE WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. ECMWF/GFS SHOWING BROAD 500 MB TROUGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...EXITING IN THE AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS FOR THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD THEN SEE A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO LOWER/REMOVE THEM IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MODELS. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WOULD ALSO BE ON TAP DURING THIS TIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN SHOWN TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDED LOW POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAY NEED HIGHER POPS IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS TREND HOLDS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN WI THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH A FEW TSTORMS. DEEPENING MOISTURE NORTH OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WL RESULT IN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MARINE... MODIS IMAGERY FROM WEDNESDAY MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMP IN THE LOWER 60S. HENCE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE AND NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WNDS OFF COOLER LAKE WATERS WL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL INVERSION PREVENTING GUSTIER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. WMFNT WL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MI THRU THIS EVE DUE TO CONVECTION BUT WINDS MAY TURN OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WIND GUSTS WL REMAIN LESS THAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT BUT MAY BE A WINDOW OF SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTIER SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT FOG/HAZE TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME PREVALENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY UNTIL COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND. BEACHES... SOUTHEAST WINDS WL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO INCREASE TO MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET. HENCE A MODERATE SWIM RISK CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING RESULTING IN BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS. LATE DAY SWIMMERS SHOULD EXPECT TO STAY AWAY FROM PIERS AND BREAKWALLS. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT EASING THE SWIM RISK. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 161824 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1224 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015 .UPDATE... BUMPED POPS UP A BIT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN UPSTREAM SHOWERS. TEMPS HAVE LIKELY PEAKED AT THIS POINT...WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST PLACES LIKELY IFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS WILL THEN HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DECREASE INTO THE EVENING...WITH A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A 60 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT MIXING THOUGH...LIKELY CAPPING THE HIGHER END GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH WIND AT THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY TO KEEP MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OUT OF TAFS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF WILL PULL INCREASING DEEPER COLUMN MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COLUMN PWAT NEARLY DOUBLES IN NEXT 24 HOURS TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO IA/MN AHEAD OF STRONGER DAKOTAS WAVE. SEVERAL WEAKER PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF -SHRA TODAY. THE FIRST HAS BEEN PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED -SHRA IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOULD END EARLY BUT EXPECT UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE OVER NRN MO/WRN IA AREA TO TRIGGER MORE -SHRA OVER SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL BE CLOSER TO DEEP MOISTURE FEED AND HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR -SHRA LATER TODAY. LIKELY TO BE A BREAK IN THE -SHRA THREAT FROM LATE AFTN THRU THE EVE BUT WITH PERSISTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...NEED TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE FOR -SHRA IN THRU THE LATE NGT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET PIVOTS INTO SRN WI LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD T. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES TUESDAY MORNING WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY MORNING ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG 50+ KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK... BUT THE STRONG LLJ FORCING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD AID IN PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDER. THE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO BLUSTERY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER AND COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN WI WED MORNING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOK FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. BY WED AFTERNOON... STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO HIGHER MIXING AND THUS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE UPPER LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI ON THU. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WED NIGHT AND THU... BUT THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW. IF IT SNOWS... A HALF INCH OR LESS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DROPS OUT OF PHASE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF... BUT STAYS IN PHASE WITH THE GFS AND TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE LATTER TWO MODELS PRODUCE A SWATH OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN WI FRI NIGHT WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS US DRY. THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO FLIP FLOP WITH THIS FORECAST A COUPLE MORE TIMES BEFORE COMING INTO AGREEMENT DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE WEAK UPPER LOW BEHAVIOR... SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE VERY LOW. THE GFS AND ECWMF BECOME COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE IN THE LATTER PERIODS AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST DO NOT HOLD ANY WEIGHT. THE ECWMF FAVORS A WARM SOLUTION WITH RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST STATES. THE GFS HOLDS ONTO COLD AND FAIRLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SRN WI LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AND MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. THIS LOWER CIGS MAY NOT RECUPERATE DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVE AS -SHRA WANE BUT PERSISTENT SLY WINDS MAINTAIN DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS LATE TNGT AS MORE WIDESPREAD -RA SPREADS TOWARD/INTO SRN WI. MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SSE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND BUILDING WAVES. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GALE WATCH THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND PORT WASHINGTON INFOS MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FARTHER SOUTH. SOME FOG MAY HAVE TIME TO DEVELOP BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WARMER...MOIST AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE MI AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR LMZ643>646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 181506 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1006 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015 .UPDATE... A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT. NOT ANTICIPATING THESE CLOUDS TO BE ENOUGH TO DISRUPT HIGH TEMPS THOUGH...SO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...LIKELY RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KT FROM SFC TO 2 KFT. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO INCLUDE THIS IN NEXT TAF PACKAGE. WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY...SO A PRETTY GUSTY DAY IS EXPECTED. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH...THOUGH FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP GIVEN A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN LOWER LEVELS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WILL RESULT IN LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TROF IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GTLAKES TONIGHT...LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODIS IMAGERY FROM LATE SATURDAY MEASURED RATHER HOMOGENEOUS LAKE SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH IS 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEVERAL DAYS AGO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS TO MIX DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPS WARM DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CURRENTLY HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVY IN EFFECT...BUT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING AFTER EXAMINING NEW FORECAST PACKAGE TODAY. GALE WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR OPEN WATERS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AREA...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WEST...AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE FLATTENING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. 700 MB UPWARD MOTION INCREASES TONIGHT...BUT IS STILL WEAK. SEVERAL BANDS OF HIGHER 700 MB RH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE RH INCREASING TO AROUND 70 PCT IN THE BAND LATER TONIGHT. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY CUMULUS POTENTIAL. THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY SHOW THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS MIXING DOWN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITHIN THE PATTERN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA ABOVE 850 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING IN THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT THAN THE GFS. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GET CLIPPED BY A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. NAM/ECMWF SHOW LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE GFS MORE WIDESPREAD. A LITTLE ELEVATED CAPE IS SHOWING UP ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS...LITTLE TO NONE ON THE GFS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LINGERING TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. SOME ELEVATED CAPE LINGERS ON NAM SOUNDINGS...LESS SO ON GFS SOUNDINGS. FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS ARE MODEST ON NAM/GFS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM DOES SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. CONTINUED POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS IF THIS WET LOOK TO THE MODELS CONTINUES. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY PER GFS/ECMWF OUTPUT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE THAN THE ECMWF. CONTINUED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...LINGERING INTO THE EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS...AS MODELS ARE NOW DRY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GFS IS QUICKER WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THAN THE ECMWF. USED CONSENSUS BLENDED MODEL POPS AND TEMPERATURES THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE 850 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE MUCH FASTER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL BEGINNING JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AS WINDS AROUND 1500 FT INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY RISING LATE...THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL IS MORE BORDERLINE. MARINE... THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ644-645. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 220830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER CAUSING FOG IN SOME COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER WEBCAMS SHOW THE FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY. FURTHER INLAND...ANY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SUSCEPTIBLE LOW AREAS AND WI RIVER VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS UPSTREAM STRATUS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WI FROM ERN IA. STRATUS WELL DEPICTED BY HIGHER RH IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ON ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FLOW AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AND BACKING BACK TO THE SOUTH. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE STRATUS FIELD FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL IA...BUT SCT-BKN STRATUS STILL EXPANDING EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST WI/FAR NW IL. ALL GUIDANCE CARRIES HIGHER RH INTO NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING...AND SOME ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTN. HIGHER RH WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT THINK FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. CUT MAX TEMP SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON HOW FAR EAST BKN CLOUDS WL TRACK TODAY...BUT COULD END UP FROM SBM TO JUST WEST OF MKE BEFORE THINNING. UPSTREAM WEAK CDFNT OVER MN WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL WI TNGT. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...OR STRATUS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WITHOUT THICKER STRATUS. DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ABV 5K FT AND EXTREMELY WEAK FORCING...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. .WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES. DRY SE FEED CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WILL GO WITH THE DRY LOOK PER THE GFS/ECMWF. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY SE FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND STARTS TO HEAD INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A LITTLE UPTICK IN 925 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF A BOOST IN THE 925 TEMPS AS WELL. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A QUICKER PACE TO APPCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERATING SOME SHRA WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FRONT HANGING BACK IN THE PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS IT INTO THE OH VLY. WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPSTREAM VFR STRATUS OVER IA MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN WI...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN ST TO AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME TODAY. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BEGINS TO AFFECT ERN TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENW BUT WEBCAMS SHOW THIS FOG TO BE VERY PATCHY. FOG SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 12Z BUT MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS MAY HANG ON OR EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TNGT AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. && .MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM AROUND 17Z/21 SHOW NEARSHORE LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 221609 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1109 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015 .UPDATE... AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WAS SLOWLY MIXING OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AS IT MOVED INTO DRIER AIR TO THE EAST. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS FROM MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR TO THE EAST SHOULD LIMIT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT. HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...GIVEN 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS. LAKE BREEZE WILL COOL THINGS OFF SOMEWHAT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER AT MADISON AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP AT WAUKESHA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. VFR CATEGORY CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA MAY NOT SEE THIS DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL SEE SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP WITH LAKE BREEZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AT MADISON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY. THE EASTERN SITES MAY SEE THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN AS WELL TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT AT TAF SITES IN THE 08Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MADISON AND KENOSHA...MORE VFR/MVFR AT MILWAUKEE AND WAUKESHA. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. .MARINE... SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH SOME MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE WATER. DEW POINTS DO NOT GET ABOVE THE LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FOG AT THIS TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. LIGHT WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER CAUSING FOG IN SOME COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKESHORE. HOWEVER WEBCAMS SHOW THE FOG REMAINS QUITE PATCHY. FURTHER INLAND...ANY FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SUSCEPTIBLE LOW AREAS AND WI RIVER VALLEY. MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS UPSTREAM STRATUS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WI FROM ERN IA. STRATUS WELL DEPICTED BY HIGHER RH IN THE 850-925MB LAYER ON ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FLOW AT THIS LEVEL CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTN AND BACKING BACK TO THE SOUTH. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS RECENT THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE STRATUS FIELD FARTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL IA...BUT SCT-BKN STRATUS STILL EXPANDING EAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST WI/FAR NW IL. ALL GUIDANCE CARRIES HIGHER RH INTO NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING...AND SOME ACROSS THE EAST THIS AFTN. HIGHER RH WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR OVER THE AREA BUT THINK FAR NORTHWEST CWA WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. CUT MAX TEMP SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS WELL DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON HOW FAR EAST BKN CLOUDS WL TRACK TODAY...BUT COULD END UP FROM SBM TO JUST WEST OF MKE BEFORE THINNING. UPSTREAM WEAK CDFNT OVER MN WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY EWD TODAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL WI TNGT. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...OR STRATUS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS WITHOUT THICKER STRATUS. DUE TO VERY LIMITED MOISTURE ABV 5K FT AND EXTREMELY WEAK FORCING...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SAGS INTO SRN WI. MID LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES. DRY SE FEED CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WILL GO WITH THE DRY LOOK PER THE GFS/ECMWF. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY SE FLOW WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE AND STARTS TO HEAD INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. 00Z ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A LITTLE UPTICK IN 925 WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH A BIT OF A BOOST IN THE 925 TEMPS AS WELL. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES A QUICKER PACE TO APPCH FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERATING SOME SHRA WITH FROPA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WITH FRONT HANGING BACK IN THE PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS IT INTO THE OH VLY. WILL STICK WITH THE SUPERBLEND GUID FOR NOW WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER AND DRIER SOLUTION. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...UPSTREAM VFR STRATUS OVER IA MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN WI...AND EXPECTING SCT-BKN ST TO AFFECT KMSN FOR A TIME TODAY. POSSIBLE THAT STRATUS BEGINS TO AFFECT ERN TAF SITES THIS AFTN AND EVENING. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KENW BUT WEBCAMS SHOW THIS FOG TO BE VERY PATCHY. FOG SHOULD THIN AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT 12Z BUT MORE PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS MAY HANG ON OR EXPAND ACROSS SRN WI TNGT AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MARINE...MODIS IMAGE FROM AROUND 17Z/21 SHOW NEARSHORE LAKE SFC TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER EAST OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY. WL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT AS WEAK SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF SHEBOYGAN TONIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WOOD TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 230821 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 321 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. OTRW...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/ CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE MID CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. SC MAY EXPAND NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP. ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST. OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION. LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT. HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY. ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. && .MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE AREA. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 231538 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1038 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 .UPDATE... NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN THE EAST COMING OFF THE LAKE...HOWEVER THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT WILL THEY WILL BE LIMITED TO SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW. && .MARINE... SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR THE SHORE TO MID 50S NEAR THE OPEN WATER WHICH IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF FORECAST DEW POINTS...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED / TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. OTRW...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/ CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE MID CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. SC MAY EXPAND NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP. ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST. OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION. LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT. HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY. ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT. THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE AREA. MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MARQUARDT TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 232025 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY .TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. WEAK MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE REGION AS 100KT JET SHIFTS EAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. CIRRUS CLOUDS LIKELY MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST CWA DUE TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING FOG TONIGHT COMING IN FROM THE LAKE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF ANY FOG DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MENTION OF FOG TO THE FAR NORTHEAST AREA WHERE THERE IS THE GREATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. DENSE FOG AGAIN LIKELY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORTICITY MAX OVER WESTERN IOWA SHEARS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ARCING THE JET STREAM WELL NORTH INTO CANADA. WITH THE STORM TRACK FOLLOWING THE UPPER JET WELL NORTH...WESTERN FLANK OF BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES KEEPING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNDER A DRY SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. THIS DRY FLOW WILL ALSO LIMIT NORTHWARD SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AROUND CUT-OFF CLOSED LOW DRIFTING NWWD FROM THE SE U.S. TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH FRIDAY 925 MB TEMPS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THURSDAY...THEN BACK UP FOR SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS MID-70 HIGHS INLAND ON FRIDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THAT INDUCES A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DIGS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER NEUTRALLY-TILTED WAVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A SHARPER SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT DRAGS A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SRN WI WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP PCPN LIMITED TO NORTHERN WI WHERE BOUNDARY STALLS/WASHES OUT...AWAITING A NEGATIVELY-TILTED WAVE TO SWING THROUGH...DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THESE DIFFERING SCENARIOS ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS ECMWF DROPS THICKNESSES FROM 570 DM MONDAY TO BETWEEN 558 AND 561 DM BY TUESDAY AM...WHILE THE SLOWER WARMER GFS KEEPS THICKNESSES AT OR ABOVE 570 DM UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL FOLLOW BLENDED SOLUTION THAT BRINGS SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY TO THE NE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE ENTIRE CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SW WEDNESDAY ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN PCPN IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE FASTER ECMWF. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN THE EAST COMING OFF THE LAKE MAINLY FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT WOULD AFFECT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST WI AND WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL WI ON THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME FOG OR HAZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEARSHORE AREA AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THAT AREA SO FOR NOW DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE SHEBOYGAN COUNTY NEARSHORE. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REM  FXUS63 KMKX 240827 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 327 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TNGT. MAJORITY OF ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. HOWEVER BOUTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIKELY TO SPEW MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SRN WI THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND ELY FLOW WL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABV NORMAL FOR 9/24. SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TURNED NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS DURING WED EVENING WHICH CARRIED AN AREA OF DENSE FOG AND 1/4SM VSBYS ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF DENSE FOG REMAINS TRANSIENT AND IS MOVING W-NW DUE TO E-SE LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SBM TO JUST WEST OF ETB TO JUST WEST OF UES TO BUU. THE FOG HAS NOT YET REACHED MKX WHICH IS IN FAR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON CO. UNFORTUNATELY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE WWD MOVEMENT OF FOG AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE EAST DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS PUSHED INLAND. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW RESULTING IN MOIST MARINE LAYER AFFECTING ERN AREAS. HENCE WL ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST AND NORTH. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONTINUED QUIET AND MILD WX CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK. IN THE LOW LEVELS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH ESE WINDS. 925 TEMPS BOTH DAYS 16- 17C SO LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD. .SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE/850 FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. NOTED AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL RH TO 80 PCT PLUS THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SSE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A STRATUS FIELD THAT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKY/TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE A CLOUDS A BIT MORE INTO THE EAST WHERE THE RH MAX IS FOCUSING. .MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT THOUGH THE BEST FORCING PROGGD TO BE TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF SHOW 925 SW WIND REGIME WITH WARM 925 TEMPS. DEPENDING ON THE MODELS VALUES RANGE FROM 19-23C...SO WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...THIS LIKELY TO BE A RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FAST SOLUTION...BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROPA. ONE THING THERE IS AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE POST- FRONTAL IN NATURE. THE LARGE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING CARRIES WITH IT A HUGE SPREAD IN THERMAL PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS PUSHING A PREFRONTAL 25C AND THE ECMWF WITH A COOLER POST FRONTAL REGIME OF AROUND 12C. SO FOR NOW WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND ROUTE AND HOPE THIS TIMING GETS IRONED OUT IN FUTURE RUNS. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST MARINE LAYER CONTRIBUTED TO AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT MOVED THROUGH ERN TAF SITES SINCE LATE WED EVE. DENSE FOG AREA HAS REMAINED TRANSIENT AND IS MOVING W-NW. DO NOT THINK IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KMSN. 08Z SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG REDEVELOPMENT YET...HOWEVER LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MRNG. LATEST RAP13 DOES SHOW WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SE WI AROUND 12Z. HENCE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT. && .MARINE...ATWATER BEACH BUOY MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP AT 60F OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN LAKE SFC TEMP ON WED INTO EARLY THIS MRNG...DEPENDING ON SLIGHT WIND DIRECTION VARIATIONS FROM NORTH TO EAST. THE NORTH WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED A PERIOD OF UPWELLING AND COOLER WATER TO REACH LAKE SFC OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER LAKE TEMPS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AREA OF FOG WHICH PUSHED INLAND WED EVE AS SFC WINDS VEERED TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR MORE UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AGAIN THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ONSHORE AND LIGHT THRU SAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 241537 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1037 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 .UPDATE... NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN WI WILL LIKELY BRING IN SOME FOG FROM THE LAKE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT MAY EVEN START THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN SO THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /327 AN CDT THU SEP 24 2015/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW AND BKN-OVC CIRRUS SHIELD LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO TNGT. MAJORITY OF ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY DUE TO DRIER LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW. HOWEVER BOUTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION LIKELY TO SPEW MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS SRN WI THRU THE DAY INTO TNGT. MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND ELY FLOW WL CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABV NORMAL FOR 9/24. SFC WINDS BRIEFLY TURNED NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KTS DURING WED EVENING WHICH CARRIED AN AREA OF DENSE FOG AND 1/4SM VSBYS ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THIS AREA OF DENSE FOG REMAINS TRANSIENT AND IS MOVING W-NW DUE TO E-SE LOW LEVEL STEERING WINDS. AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT 08Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SBM TO JUST WEST OF ETB TO JUST WEST OF UES TO BUU. THE FOG HAS NOT YET REACHED MKX WHICH IS IN FAR EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON CO. UNFORTUNATELY...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OBSCURE WWD MOVEMENT OF FOG AREA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FOG MENTION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE EAST DUE TO LIGHT SFC WINDS AND ADDED MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER WHICH HAS PUSHED INLAND. SIMILAR SCENARIO EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT ELY FLOW RESULTING IN MOIST MARINE LAYER AFFECTING ERN AREAS. HENCE WL ADD PATCHY FOG MENTION AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EAST AND NORTH. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONTINUED QUIET AND MILD WX CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL FLOW VERY WEAK. IN THE LOW LEVELS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS WITH ESE WINDS. 925 TEMPS BOTH DAYS 16- 17C SO LOW/MID 70S STILL LOOK GOOD. SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE/850 FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. NOTED AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL RH TO 80 PCT PLUS THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SSE. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A STRATUS FIELD THAT GETS PULLED NORTH INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKY/TEMPS BUT DID INCREASE A CLOUDS A BIT MORE INTO THE EAST WHERE THE RH MAX IS FOCUSING. MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WESTERLY 500 MILLIBAR FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE A BIT THOUGH THE BEST FORCING PROGGD TO BE TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX. GFS AND NOW THE ECMWF SHOW 925 SW WIND REGIME WITH WARM 925 TEMPS. DEPENDING ON THE MODELS VALUES RANGE FROM 19-23C...SO WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY PROGGD TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...THIS LIKELY TO BE A RATHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW STILL A LOT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO SPEED OF COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FAST SOLUTION...BRINGING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FROPA. ONE THING THERE IS AGREEMENT ON IS THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE POST- FRONTAL IN NATURE. THE LARGE DISPARITY IN FRONTAL TIMING CARRIES WITH IT A HUGE SPREAD IN THERMAL PATTERN ON TUESDAY WITH THE GFS PUSHING A PREFRONTAL 25C AND THE ECMWF WITH A COOLER POST FRONTAL REGIME OF AROUND 12C. SO FOR NOW WILL BE GOING THE SUPERBLEND ROUTE AND HOPE THIS TIMING GETS IRONED OUT IN FUTURE RUNS. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOIST MARINE LAYER CONTRIBUTED TO AREA OF DENSE FOG THAT MOVED THROUGH ERN TAF SITES SINCE LATE WED EVE. DENSE FOG AREA HAS REMAINED TRANSIENT AND IS MOVING W-NW. DO NOT THINK IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KMSN. 08Z SFC OBS AND WEBCAMS NOT SHOWING MUCH FOG REDEVELOPMENT YET...HOWEVER LIGHT E-NE FLOW TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MRNG. LATEST RAP13 DOES SHOW WIND CONVERGENCE OVER SE WI AROUND 12Z. HENCE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO ERN TAF SITES LATER TNGT. MARINE...ATWATER BEACH BUOY MEASURING LAKE SFC TEMP AT 60F OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN LAKE SFC TEMP ON WED INTO EARLY THIS MRNG...DEPENDING ON SLIGHT WIND DIRECTION VARIATIONS FROM NORTH TO EAST. THE NORTH WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUSED A PERIOD OF UPWELLING AND COOLER WATER TO REACH LAKE SFC OVERNIGHT. THESE COOLER LAKE TEMPS CONTRIBUTED TO AN AREA OF FOG WHICH PUSHED INLAND WED EVE AS SFC WINDS VEERED TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TODAY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR MORE UPWELLING. HOWEVER THE WINDS MAY BACK TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AGAIN THIS EVENING WHICH MAY ALLOW ANOTHER BATCH OF FOG TO FORM OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ONSHORE AND LIGHT THRU SAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MARQUARDT TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 241923 CCA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 223 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015 .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS UNDER WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WITH A 100 KT JET OVER QUEBEC. UPSTREAM UPPER AND SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN SO PLESANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION FROM UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT IN REGARDS TO FOG. PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3 DEGREES OR LESS. MESO MODELS ALSO SHOWING NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL INLAND SO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS ALSO POSSBLE IN THE EAST. .SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW ALOFT IS VERY WEAK AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY /THURSDAY/ WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THIS TIME. WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THAT DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE 70S. .SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DISCUSSION MENTIONED THE THREAT OF MORE CLOUDS FROM THAT SOUTHERN WAVE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THAT APPROACH. THAT WEAK LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT NORTHERN INDIANA/NE ILLINOIS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UP HERE AND SHOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SO WE GET A GLANCING BLOW AND IT SHOULD ONLY HAVE CLOUDS AS THE MAIN CONCERN. ANY PRECIP...AT THIS POINT...LOOKS TO STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THOSE CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS REMAIN VERY MILD. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE UPPER RIDGING/WEAK FLOW REGIME FINALLY COLLAPSES SOUTH IN DEFERENCE TO A DIGGING BROAD CANADIAN TROF AND MUCH FASTER WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN STAY DRY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COOLER WEATHER SHOULD ARRIVE BY THIS PERIOD. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS WANTS TO DRY US OUT THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG SHOT OF H8 WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AND IT TAKES ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH. THUS...WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF IT ENDED UP BE DRY THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... CONDITIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN FAR EASTERN WI WILL LIKELY BRING IN FOG FROM THE LAKE ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN STARTING THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT MKE...UES...AND ENW AT TIMES DUE TO DENSE FOG. PATHCY FOG LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION. && .MARINE... CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT FOG IS LIKELY AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS WATER TEMPERATURES ARE COOLEST FROM MILWAUKEE TO SHEBOYGAN SO THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR FOG. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MARQUARDT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS  FXUS63 KMKX 250838 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 338 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH. WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER ERN NEBRASKA AND UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND FASTER FLOW TO THE NORTH...CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE CIRRUS SHIELD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FEED OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE NEBRASKA UPPER LOW FURTHER WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH...SECOND LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER SRN WI INTO TONIGHT BUT MAY THIN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS NE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SWD. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY TO M/CLDY SKIES AND ELY SFC FLOW...EXPECT SIMILAR DAYTIME TEMPS TO THURSDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS BY LAKE MI. RECENT MODIS IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS MEASURED LAKE MI SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. KBUU HAS BEEN REPORTING PERIODS OF DENSE FOG SINCE 06Z. PASSING SHERIFF REPORTS DENSE FOG VERY LOCALIZED IN THIS AREA WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DEWPTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HIGHER IN ERN CWA SO EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING JUST OFF SURFACE...FOG MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED THINNING OF CIRRUS. .SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES SATURDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EARLY SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT PRECIP AT THIS TIME. DID BUMP SKY COVER UP QUITE A BIT SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CHANCE OF A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK. LOOKS LIKE MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT A BIT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF BRINING IT THROUGH BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE FRONT NOT REACH ILLINOIS UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. THE CANADIAN TIMING IS IN BETWEEN...THOUGH MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TEMPS...TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS...AND SO ON FOR THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. POPS ENDED UP SPREAD OUT QUITE A BIT GIVEN THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. GENERALLY STUCK TOWARD THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPS. OVERALL THOUGH...WILL EVENTUALLY SEE COOLER TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... LIGHT SFC WINDS MAY ALLOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER VSBYS FROM FOG THRU EARLY MRNG. HOWEVER MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MORE PATCHY FOG AFFECTING TAF SITES TONIGHT. && .MARINE... PERSISTENT NORTH TO EAST SFC WIND FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU SATURDAY BEFORE VEERING MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WIND SPEEDS TO REMAIN BELOW 20KTS THRU THE WEEKEND. WITH MOSTLY ONSHORE WINDS AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING...FOG...IF ANY DEVELOPS...SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY. ATWATER BEACH BUOY CONTINUES TO REPORT WATER TEMP AROUND 60 AND LATEST AVAILABLE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED WATER TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. SFC DEWPTS LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOSE TO LAKE WATER TEMP REDUCING FOG THREAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 192109 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 309 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLIDE BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS THAT THE BETTER FORCING WILL HAVE MOVED ON BY THE TIME DECENT SATURATION OCCURS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER...WITH MAINLY FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MOST PLACES WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW GIVEN THAT SOUNDINGS DO EVENTUALLY SATURATE WITH 300-400 MB OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT AT ALL FOR SNOW GIVEN THIS SETUP. MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CURRENTLY SEEING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TRAILING THE SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM...SO WILL PROBABLY SEE CLOUDS LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN SO...WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A WEAK SFC RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SRN WI TO OHIO FOR WED NT AND THU. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AROUND THE HIGH MAINLY IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER. THIS MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF MO CLOUDY SKIES DURING THIS TIME BUT NO PCPN. FOR THU NT INTO FRI MORNING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BUT THE STRONGEST PORTION OF IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AS IT DIVES SWD AND JOINS THE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY NEWD TO THE EAST COAST. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF LGT SNOW THU NT AND MAY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING. ALSO THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING ACROSS THE SE USA WILL TURN THE WINDS TO NELY FOR FRI AND FRI NT WITH LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES OF 12-14C. THIS IS MARGINAL FOR LES BUT MODELS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF AND OVERALL CONDITIONS APPEAR A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES THAN PRIOR DAYS. THUS INCREASED POPS SOME FOR FRI AND FRI NT WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLE. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS WI SAT WITH SLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION FOR SAT NT AND SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS. THE SFC LOW MAY THEN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE STATE MON NT AND TUE WITH THE MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING A SHORTWAVE TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. MAY SEE SOME LOWER CIGS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. && .MARINE... STILL SEEING A GOOD AMOUNT OF ICE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS VIA THE LATEST MODIS IMAGE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. WAVES IN GENERAL WILL BE LIMITED THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...BUT WILL BE ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THESE ICY AREAS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GEHRING  FXUS63 KMKX 240918 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 318 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MRNG. QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT FOG REPORTED UPSTREAM ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS LIGHT FOG WOULD NOT CARRY INTO WRN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. MORE TROUBLESOME IS THAT WEAKLY CHANNELED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO SHAKE OUT SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM IN THE STRATUS SHIELD. LATEST KARX RADAR IN VCP-31 SHOWING INCREASING LIGHT RETURNS SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR NOW...WL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR -ZL AND FLURRIES IN WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS FOR WRN AREAS IF LOWER VISIBILITIES SPREAD INTO THIS AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC TEMPS WL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S THRU THE EARLY MRNG. WEAK LIFT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATER TODAY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF MUCH MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TNGT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY FOG RETURNING LATER TNGT AS LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY A SURGE OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA AND IL WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION. GREATEST DCVA FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SFC AND 850 LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO ERN OR SERN IA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL NOT BE DISPLACING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SO IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENEROUSLY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS THE SFC/850 FLOW ADVECTS THE MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPCH SFC/850 LOW CENTERS. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE MORNING WILL RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ZL- AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM PRECIP IN THE AFTN. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE WITH A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE SFC TEMPS AND LACK OF SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIP. SFC/850 LOW LIFTS NE FROM SRN/CNTRL WI MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSING THERMAL PROFILE AND A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. APPEARS BEST OVERLAP OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEF ZONE PRECIP WITH THE WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...PUSHING A COUPLE INCHES WITH LESSER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH WHERE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SECONDARY WAVES PRODUCING POCKETS OF DCVA. MODELS SHOWING VRY LGT QPF SO CHANCES THERE FOR LIGHT ACCUM SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER SUPERBLEND. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO TAKE THESE POPS HIGHER WITH HIGH CONFIDENT SNOWING/LOW QPF IDEA BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN A COLLABORATIVE RANGE. .WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK ESP ON THE GEM. 850 WAA MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 925 THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS ON BOTH MODELS WITH RATHER SLUGGISH RECOVERY. GFS 2 METER TEMPS TOO COLD. TRENDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/SUPERBLEND TEMPS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WITH THE SFC/850 FORCING WHILE MID LEVEL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTING SHORTWAVE WITH NO QPF BEING GENERATED. WILL KEEP SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW. ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE WARMER AND SUGGESTS MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP. GFS STAYS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW. .FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM PROGS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS WITH WNW 850 FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 TEMPS PUSHING 10C WITH 925 TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL. SO COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH THIS REGIME AND AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS TO BE HIGHER THAN SUPERBLEND GUID. .SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME COLLAPSING OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS WITH SFC FRONT BEING DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND WARM AIR RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REST OF SOUTHEAST WI NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK FORCING MAY SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR PATCHY -ZL OVER PARTS OF SRN WI...MAINLY THIS MRNG. THINKING KMSN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS MRNG. THINKING LOW CLOUDS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TODAY OR TNGT. SOME LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. && .MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN ICE FREE AREAS OF NEAR SHORE WATERS. VESSEL IN MKE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18KTS AT 08Z. SRN ZONE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SEVERAL HOURS BUT WL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 241630 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1030 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016 .UPDATE... VISIBILITY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 MILE RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT FOG/HAZE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WEST OF MADISON THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A REPORT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE NWS LA CROSSE OFFICE. THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO MADISON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE... BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING BASED ON DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... IFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY EXPANDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW FAR EAST THEY WILL SPREAD... SO BROUGHT UES DOWN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MKE OR ENW. VSBY SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5SM RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT FOG/HAZE AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES WEST OF MADISON THIS MORNING. THIS LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPREAD INTO MADISON EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORTWAVE... BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING BASED ON DRY AIR ABOVE 3000 FEET. LOW CLOUDS WITH MAINLY IFR CIGS SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. && .MARINE... ALLOWED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST SUN JAN 24 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PULLING WIDESPREAD STRATUS FIELD ACROSS SRN WI EARLY THIS MRNG. QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT FOG REPORTED UPSTREAM ACROSS IA AND SRN MN. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS LIGHT FOG WOULD NOT CARRY INTO WRN CWA EARLY THIS MRNG...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE SEVERAL DEGREES. MORE TROUBLESOME IS THAT WEAKLY CHANNELED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY HAS JUST ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO SHAKE OUT SOME PATCHY FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE UPSTREAM IN THE STRATUS SHIELD. LATEST KARX RADAR IN VCP-31 SHOWING INCREASING LIGHT RETURNS SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR NOW...WL INCLUDE SMALL CHANCE FOR -ZL AND FLURRIES IN WRN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ISSUE SPS FOR WRN AREAS IF LOWER VISIBILITIES SPREAD INTO THIS AREA NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SFC TEMPS WL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S THRU THE EARLY MRNG. WEAK LIFT SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATER TODAY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF MUCH MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROF THAT WILL MOVE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS TNGT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PATCHY FOG RETURNING LATER TNGT AS LIGHT WINDS ACCOMPANY A SURGE OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO IA AND IL WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT ORIENTATION. GREATEST DCVA FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE FROM THE LATER AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SFC AND 850 LOW CENTERS MOVE INTO ERN OR SERN IA BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A SUSTAINED SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL NOT BE DISPLACING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SO IT SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENEROUSLY MODIFY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AS THE SFC/850 FLOW ADVECTS THE MILDER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPCH SFC/850 LOW CENTERS. WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE MORNING WILL RETAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ZL- AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM PRECIP IN THE AFTN. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY COINCIDE WITH A WINDOW OF TIME WHERE SFC TEMPS AND LACK OF SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WOULD WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIP. SFC/850 LOW LIFTS NE FROM SRN/CNTRL WI MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLLAPSING THERMAL PROFILE AND A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. APPEARS BEST OVERLAP OF THE COLDER AIR AND DEF ZONE PRECIP WITH THE WAVE WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA SO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS THERE...PUSHING A COUPLE INCHES WITH LESSER TOTALS IN THE SOUTH WHERE LINGERING WARM LAYER WILL LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT. TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD ADVECTION REGIME IN PLACE WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND SECONDARY WAVES PRODUCING POCKETS OF DCVA. MODELS SHOWING VRY LGT QPF SO CHANCES THERE FOR LIGHT ACCUM SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER SUPERBLEND. EVENTUALLY WE MAY NEED TO TAKE THESE POPS HIGHER WITH HIGH CONFIDENT SNOWING/LOW QPF IDEA BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN A COLLABORATIVE RANGE. WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOK ESP ON THE GEM. 850 WAA MORE PRONOUNCED ON THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS. 925 THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS ON BOTH MODELS WITH RATHER SLUGGISH RECOVERY. GFS 2 METER TEMPS TOO COLD. TRENDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM/SUPERBLEND TEMPS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THIS PERIOD. THE GFS BRINGS A SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS WITH THE SFC/850 FORCING WHILE MID LEVEL WAVE IS FURTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A MORE DIRECTLY IMPACTING SHORTWAVE WITH NO QPF BEING GENERATED. WILL KEEP SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW. ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE WARMER AND SUGGESTS MAYBE SOME RAIN MIXING IN WITH ANY PRECIP. GFS STAYS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW. FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM PROGS ARE SHOWING A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPS WITH WNW 850 FLOW. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW 850 TEMPS PUSHING 10C WITH 925 TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE OF ZERO AS WELL. SO COULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH THIS REGIME AND AGAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR READINGS TO BE HIGHER THAN SUPERBLEND GUID. SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THERMAL RIDGE PROGGD TO REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY. SOME COLLAPSING OF 850/925 ISOTHERMS WITH SFC FRONT BEING DRAGGED INTO THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MVFR CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE AND WARM AIR RETURN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD REST OF SOUTHEAST WI NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK FORCING MAY SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR PATCHY -ZL OVER PARTS OF SRN WI...MAINLY THIS MRNG. THINKING KMSN WOULD BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS MRNG. THINKING LOW CLOUDS WL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR LEVELS LATER TODAY OR TNGT. SOME LIGHT FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS WITH LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS IN ICE FREE AREAS OF NEAR SHORE WATERS. VESSEL IN MKE HARBOR REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 18KTS AT 08Z. SRN ZONE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SEVERAL HOURS BUT WL LET DAYSHIFT REEVALUATE. TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER ON LATEST HI RES MODIS IMAGE FROM SAT TO EVALUATE ICE COVERAGE IN NEAR SHORE WATERS. THINKING THE WINDIER CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND WARMER TEMPS HELPED TO BREAK UP AND THIN THE ICE THAT WAS MORE EXTENSIVE ON THE 19TH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 200834 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 334 AM CDT WED APR 20 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECTING LINGERING -SHRA OVER NORTHEAST CWA TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO BULK OF CWA THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN. MEANDERING UPSTREAM UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD NEXT 36 HOURS AS LONG WAVE TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. POTENT PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL/ERN KS AND NE AREA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND GRAZE SRN WI LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL JET REAMPLIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW AND RESULTS IN SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE TO WARRANT CONTINUING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST OF CWA FOR ABOUT A SIX HOUR PERIOD. WL KEEP FAR EASTERN CWA IN LIKELY WORDING DUE TO STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING JUST TO THE WEST. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 200-500 J/KG DURING THE PEAK FORCING SO WL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION. ENOUGH WEAK SHEAR AND ELEVATED CAPE TO RESULT IN A FEW SMALL HAILSTONES IN STRONGER STORMS BUT SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED. ENHANCED LIFT FROM SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SPEEDS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE NIGHT. LIGHTER SFC WINDS AND DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WL RESULT IN AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE UPPER CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING OFF TO OUR WEST FOR SOME TIME NOW WILL BE ACROSS IOWA EARLY IN THE DAY. 500 MILLIBAR LOW PROGGD TO BE ACROSS IOWA AT THE. THE GEM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION INTACT AND SHIFT IT SOUTHEAST INTO MO. MEANWHILE THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION OPENS UP THE LOW INTO A POSITIVE TILT WAVE WHICH CROSSES SRN AND ERN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE LOW LEVELS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH SRN WI IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH SOME TALL SKINNY CAPE NOTED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE GRIDS. MODELS SHOW A DRY WEDGE DURING THE MORNING WITH SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO FILL IN WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE AND LOWER LEVEL TROUGH. .FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD WITH SOME GUSTY NNE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS IS THE COLDEST SOLUTION SHOWING 925 TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR ZERO 0C AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A COMPROMISE SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD BETWEEN THE WARMER NAM AND COLDER GFS. DAVA WORKS IN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKING HOLD. SURFACE HIGH PROGGD TO BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND RIDGING SSW INTO THE MID MISS VLY. .SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE EASTERN LAKES AREA. A RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH A NICE BOUNCE BACK OF THE 925 TEMPS INTO THE 10-12C RANGE. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO GET BACK INTO THE 60S ESP FOR INLAND LOCALES. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM EXPECT THIS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTENING AND SOUTHWARD SAGGING 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT CONSENSUS OF MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE FAVORABLE FORCING DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS WI DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE UPPER SUPPORT IN PLACE AS WELL BUT FOR NOW LATCHING ONTO THE SFC/850 LOW TRAVERSING TO OUR WEST AND EVENTUALLY OUR SOUTH. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE ECMWF HANGS ONTO THE PRECIP A BIT LONGER WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE SURFACE HIGH IN FASTER AND SHOWS PRONOUNCED RIDGING INTO THE AREA WITH A DRIER NE LLVL FLOW. AT THIS TIME THE SUPERBLEND POPS ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS DURING THE AFTN AND EVE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TNGT TO IFR AS LIGHTER WINDS AND DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO SRN WI...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TNGT AND LINGER INTO THU MRNG. && .MARINE...WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP INVERSION THAT WILL PREVENT GUSTY WINDS ABOUT 500 FT ABV SURFACE AND HIGHER FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THRU TONIGHT. LIGHTER SFC WINDS AND WARM...MOIST AIR MAY BRING AREAS OF FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS THU INTO THU NGT. LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND GLERL ESTIMATED LAKE SFC TEMP IN THE LOWER 40S. THESE VALUES CONFIRMED BY SOUTHERN LAKE MI BUOY 45007 WHICH STARTED TRANSMITTING FOR THE SEASON TUESDAY EVENING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 090830 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 330 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM. FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN WI IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF DRY LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HOWEVER LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. SURFACE WARM FRONT CUTS ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL INTO TN VALLEY REGION WHERE DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO 50-55F. MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL IL BUT THIS AREA IS MOVING MOSTLY EAST. ANOTHER MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN NE...MOVING NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES EASTWARD. AN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THIS SECOND STRONGER SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY BRING -SHRA AND ISOLD T TO SOUTHWEST CWA THIS MRNG. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING SOME INCREASING WEAK DBZ OVER SOUTHEAST IA. THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THIS WEAK WAVE DOES REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES NORTH BY AFTN. HENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE MORNING TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS CWA. THREAT FOR -SHRA INCREASES DURING THE AFTN...AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS SHIFTING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER STRONGEST MOISTURE PUSH AND CONVERGENCE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO GRAZE SOUTHERN WI. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE AND TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF LLJ. HOWEVER YET ANOTHER MID- LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS ALL OF SRN WI TNGT. QPF MOSTLY IN THE TWO TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE THIS AFTN AND TNGT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NOT LINGER AND CONTINUE MOVING NWD. .TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD LIFTING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST QPF DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LIGHTER QPF NOTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM SHOWS THE AFTERNOON DRY WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SHOW PRIMARY UPPER LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SRN WI WHICH SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHRA GOING AFTER THE MAIN SLUG OF PRECIP DEPARTS SRN WI. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF WI SO A CLOUDY AND COOL EASTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED WITH A LOWER CLOUD DECK/STRATUS LIKELY PERSISTING ALL DAY. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM INITIAL 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN WI AT THE OUTSET AND GETS A KICK FROM THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH HEADING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS. PRIMARY SFC LOW HEADS NE INTO CANADA HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY LOW TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THIS HEADS NE FROM CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPR MIDWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING AS MUCH WAA PRECIP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY SO TRENDED POPS LOWER DURING THE DAY. HIGHEST 925 TEMPS IN THERMAL RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO EVENING HIGHS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ARRIVING CONVECTION. CWASP NUMBERS ARE THE HIGHEST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM DOES SHOW ONE BATCH OF CONVECTION IN THE BETTER INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH AND ANOTHER RIDING TO OUR NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS SHOW MORE OF A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING THE WHOLE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER POPS FOR NOW GOING WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND WITH THE NAM BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. IN ADDITION THERE IS AN UPTICK IN 0-6KM SHEAR AND SOME DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EVOLVE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS BUFKIT SHOWS CAPE VALUES ROOTED AROUND 900 MILLIBARS PUSHING 1000J/KG. MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SRN 1/2 OF FCST AREA SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. .THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SFC LOW PROGGD TO BE VCNTY NRN WI WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SRN WI. WL KEEP SOME MRNG POPS IN THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM 500 MILLIBAR FORCING AND FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THOUGH 925 TEMPS ONLY DROP TO 10-13C AND WITH 925 WINDS OF 20- 30KNOTS FROM THE WEST WILL NEGATE ANY LAKE EFFECT AND STILL SEE MILDER TEMPS. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM PROGS ARE STILL SHOWING A RATHER COOL PERIOD SETTLING IN. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW WILL BE STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE WITH A FEW WAVES WHICH ARE RESOLVED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TIMING. THERE WILL BE SHRA POTENTIAL FROM TIME TO TIME TIED TO THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. 925/850 THERMAL PROFILE STILL LIKELY TO GET QUITE CHILLY. THE 925 WINDS REMAIN UP AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW LEVELS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN FROST AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LOWER MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN WI AND TAF SITES TONIGHT. MAY BE A FEW NON-SEVERE T-STORMS AFFECTING TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS WELL. && .MARINE...GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ONSHORE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NOT TURNING OFF SHORE UNTIL LOW PRESSURE TROF MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. RECENT SATELLITE MODIS IMAGERY MEASURED LAKE MI SURFACE TEMP STILL IN THE LOW 40S AWAY FROM SHORE. EXPECT LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO INITIALLY PREVENT STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SURFACE TODAY INTO THIS EVE. HOWEVER GUSTY ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY REACH LAKE SURFACE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE MRNG...WHICH WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS. HENCE PER COORD WITH LOT...WL POST SMALL CRAFT ADVY BEGINNING AT 06Z FOR SRN ZONES AND 09Z FOR NRN ZONES...LASTING THRU TUE MRNG. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645- 646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643- 644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 270842 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 342 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium Radar mosaic shows several weakening MCS's to the south. This weakening has allowed surge of moisture advection to begin spreading northward. Short term guidance underestimating upstream low level jet as vertical wind profiler network from WSR-88D showing 40-50kt jet focused into central IA while IL on weaker eastern side of jet. The combination of this surge and approaching mid-level jetlet should carry at least scattered showers and storms across CWA this morning. Column precipitable water is expected to increase to around 1.25 to 1.5 inches this morning as this moisture streams nwd. Low level jet re-energizes this aftn and eve ahead of low pressure moving into the central plains and becoming slightly negatively tilted. With deeper moisture in place and MUCapes anywhere from 500- 1500 j/kg, expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to redevelop, especially over ern CWA. Mid level Lapse Rates only 5-6 degrees and bulk shear mostly in the 25-35kt range. More cloud cover today should limit instability somewhat but isold severe not out of the question, mainly later today. Will continue likely wording into tonight due to nearby low level jet and continuing surges of low level moisture flux convergence and lingering instability. Corfidi vectors show slow motion this afternoon and tonight as warm cloud depth increases to 3-4km. However the Flash Flood Factor expected to be weak. With PWAT values well above normal, expect brief heavy rains to accompany t-storms but threat for flooding looks low at this point. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. The weakening upper trough will slide from eastern NE to Lake Superior during this period. High precipitable water values and weak instability will persist over southern WI on Saturday. Multiple weak shortwaves will ripple through the area as well, but timing of these are very uncertain. All of these factors support continued chances for showers and thunderstorms in southern WI Sat and Sat night. The surface low will be tracking through IA and MN on Sat, which will allow for a tighter pressure gradient in southern WI and lead to breezy south to southwest winds. Max temps should be around 80, as long as we see some breaks in the clouds. By Sunday morning, the main mid level trough will be along the MN/WI border. The final wave of vorticity advection will bring southern WI the best chance for showers/thunderstorms Sunday morning, with chances tapering off from west to east in the afternoon. Winds will shift to the west in the afternoon. Max temps on Sunday should be around 80 once again. Sunday night is the only dry period in the forecast at this time. MEMORIAL DAY... Forecast confidence is medium. The mid level flow will become zonal for Monday with possible ridging per the ECMWF. Several models are showing a weak shortwave rippling through southern WI, which could produce a few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Thus, kept the slight chance pops in the forecast. Southern WI will still be in the mild air mass, so expect temperatures in the lower 80s inland from the lake. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. A closed upper low will make its way across the northern Plains Monday night through Thursday. The ECMWF is most progressive with this low which leads to precip timing differences. The occluding surface low will likely bring showers and thunderstorms to southern WI Tue and Wed. Then the GFS stalls the precip axis over WI for Thu and Fri which leads to the slight chance pops in the forecast. The ECMWF keeps southern WI dry during this period. Temperatures should be in the upper 70s for much of next week. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today into tonight as warm, more humid and unstable air surges northward into the area. VFR cigs are expected for most of the period but will briefly lower as some of these showers and storms affect taf sites. Best chance for storms in eastern taf sites later today into tonight. Mid-high clouds keeping fog at ba this morning. && .MARINE... Breezy west winds helped dissipate the dense fog over the near shore waters Thursday afternoon. However today the winds will be more south to southeast as warmer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s surge northward over Lake Michigan. Hence expect more fog to develop and likely to become dense for a time. Most susceptible area is offshore from Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties where MODIS images from Thursday showed cooler waters in these areas. Hence wl be watching webcams of shore areas closely after sunrise. Mariners will need to watch for scattered thunderstorms, especially later this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds with these storms may approach 35 kts, especially at the lakeshore. Also, tighter pressure gradient south of warm front will allow gusty south winds to affect lakeshore areas while winds remain less gusty offshore due to steeper inversion beginning later tonight . Wind gusts at the shore look to approach Small Craft Advisory levels late tonight into Saturday. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Saturday THROUGH Thursday...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 110836 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 336 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2016 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium. Eastern IA convection continues to dwindle and sag southeast early this morning. Hence expect widespread cirrus shield to thin and dissipate. A humid day lies ahead with the added moisture from Friday's rainfall and the lighter west to southwest winds helping to keep dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 925H temps rising to around 25-26c and partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon should help the mercury rise into the lower 90s most locations, even closer to the lakeshore. The west winds should keep the lake breeze held close to the lakeshore this afternoon. The combination of warm temperatures and humidity will result in Heat Index values rising into the mid to upper 90s, with a few southwest spots perhaps briefly reaching 100. Too isolated at this point to post Heat Advisory, plus some uncertainty regarding upstream high clouds perhaps keeping daytime temperatures 1-2 degrees cooler. Both Madison and Milwaukee will approach their record high temp for today. 0-6km bulk shear expected to be weaker today, around 20kts but CAPE values should rise to 2-3k joules, once weak capping inversion is eclipsed early this afternoon. Will continue smaller chance for thunderstorms in this afternoon due to expected instability and passing weak boundary and potential weak lobe of mid-level vorticity adding some synoptic lift. SPC has lowered severe threat to marginal which seems reasonable considering lack of significant forcing and shear. Low level cold air surge will follow vigorous back door cold front which will pass through southern WI tonight. 3 hour pressure rises behind this front of 3 to 5 mb will result in some gusty winds by the lake shore. However drier air settling into srn WI should prevent convection from re-firing over most of the area as stronger cold front sweeps through during the evening and overnight. Will keep small pops in across the far southwest. Cooler, less humid conditions return for Sunday, especially by the lake. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY... Forecast confidence is high. Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Lake-cooled air will lead to highs in the 60s lakeshore. The ridging and warm temperatures will remain in place over the Midwest, so highs are expected around 80 west of Madison. Dry air over southern WI will keep the weather quiet for Sunday and Sunday evening with decreasing clouds. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Dakotas and northern MN on Sunday due to weak low pressure. The precip should track ESE per the Corfidi vectors overnight into Monday. The weak cold front with this system should slide south through the day and stall over southern WI Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms could re-develop along that boundary Monday afternoon/evening but forcing will be very weak so confidence is not high. Temperatures should climb back into the 80s Monday ahead of that cold front. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. A mid level trough will close off over he upper Midwest later in the week. This system will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to southern WI mainly Wednesday. Then clouds and showers will linger through Thursday until the system can move out. Ridging moves back in and the weekend looks fairly dry with temperatures around normal for mid June. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... High clouds from persistent upstream convection over northeast IA preventing fog from developing early this morning. Lack of low level convergence also keeping low cloud development at bay. Hence a mostly VFR period is expected. A thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon and evening. A wind shift to the northeast will accompany a cold front passing through this evening. && .MARINE... Webcams not indicated any fog near the shore early this morning, however threat for dense fog will persist today into this evening as warm, humid air flows across cooler Lake MI. Recent buoys and MODIS imagery indicating Lake MI water temp in the low to mid 50s while surface dewpoints rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s today. SW winds will likely back to the south to southeast over the near shore waters later this morning and afternoon. However the lake breeze should be held close to the shore by the expected WSW breezes over the land. Strong back door cold front will sweep rapidly south across the near shore waters this evening, between 00z and 06z. Burst of north to northeast winds immediately behind front may gust as high as 35 knots, but should quickly settle down to 33 knots or less. Looks like the gusty winds over 22 knots will persist through the late night along with building waves. Hence will post Small Craft Advisory tonight into early Sunday for lingering high waves. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Sunday THROUGH Friday...MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 180823 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 323 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence - Medium to High. Weak frontal boundary has just about exited far southeast WI early this morning. Light surface winds have become mostly west to northwest which are ushering in slightly lower humidity and dewpoints. Just above the surface, winds a bit more robust from the northwest at 10 to 20 knots, lowering the humidity aloft as well. Low level mixiness also helping to prevent significant fog development early this morning despite Sunday rainfall. A quiet period is expected through tonight, but passing cloudiness can be expected time to time. Occasional passing high clouds due to cirrus blowoff from upstream convection across northern IA/MN can be expected into tonight. Also enough lingering low level rh will contribute to some cumulus development later this morning and afternoon. With temperatures starting out mild, expect daytime temps to rebound into the low to mid 80s. A developing lake breeze will cool shore areas in the afternoon. Expect elevated instability and baroclinic zone to remain upstream across IA extending into central IL through tonight. Hence any convection to remain to the west and south. Lighter boundary level winds tonight will allow patchy late night fog to develop. Fog should be more limited in parts of western CWA due to another bout of cirrus blowoff affecting this area later tonight. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium Surface high pressure will slide southeastward Tuesday, becoming centered over the eastern Great Lakes by evening. The surface high will continue to depart Wednesday, while an upper ridge builds into the region. Will probably see a wave or two ride through the top of the mid/upper ridge. Increasing moisture and warm advection will combine with forcing from the waves to kick off rounds of storms within the region. Models are coming into better agreement wave timing/placement...suggesting Tuesday night into Wednesday may be the best chance for storms. Temps should be a couple/few degrees above normal Tue and Wed. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium Could be another round or two of storms late in the week as disturbances move through the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Not great confidence in the low pops in the forecast, as it could easily be dry Thursday and Friday due to capping under the ridge. Higher confidence Thu/Fri remains with temps, as models are generally in good agreement that it will turn hot and humid. Timing of any clouds and precip with the weak waves could certainly throw a wrench in forecast temps either day. Given that it looks mainly dry for late week though, kept the hot temps going. Looking increasingly likely that heat headlines may be needed for both days, with forecast heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. .SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium The trough and associated cold front are expected to finally move through on Saturday. Kept some pops going, though not very impressed with the forcing suggested by models. Looks mainly dry then Sunday as high pressure builds into the area. Bumped temps up a bit Saturday with the slower progression of the trough/front compared to model solutions 24 hours ago. Should see temps return to near normal Sunday behind the departing front. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Weak frontal boundary exiting far southeast WI has ushered somewhat less humid air across the area overnight. Light surface winds have veered to the northwest most areas and surface dewpoints have dropped a few degrees into the mid to upper 60s. Just off surface, northwest winds increase to 10 to 20 knots. These conditions will prevent significant fog from forming early this morning. VFR conditions expected for the forecast period with few-sct cumulus developing later this morning and afternoon. Patchy fog more of a threat late tonight due to lighter boundary layer winds. May put in some light fog in eastern TAF sites late, but expected high clouds over western CWA should help prevent fog in this area. && .MARINE... Much lighter winds are expected today. West to northwest winds will become onshore late this morning and afternoon due to a light pressure gradient and shore temperatures warming into the 80s. Breezy southwest winds on Sunday following morning thunderstorms resulted in upwelling of cooler water temperatures. The Atwater Buoy located 1.25 miles off northern Milwaukee county continues to measure water temperatures in the 40s early this morning, which corresponds with MODIS satellite imagery from Sun aftn. The lighter winds expected next 48 hours will allow water temperature to recover in the shallower near shore areas. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 101455 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 955 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 .UPDATE... Quiet weather will continue today under the western periphery of high pressure. Temps and dewpoints will be a little warmer today, with forecast values seeming to be on track. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Scattered to broken ceilings around 4-5 kft continue toward the Illinois border this morning. Elsewhere, diurnal cumulus will likely develop by later this morning. It will remain quiet into tonight, with a few showers or storms possible northwest of Madison later tonight as a low pressure system approaches. A little fog is not of the question again tonight, but not expecting widespread fog as high pressure continues to shift eastward. The chance for showers and storms will increase on Thursday, especially in the northwest forecast area. Storms are then likely Thursday evening/night as low moves into the area. && .MARINE... Latest MODIS imagery showed Lake MI surface temp has risen into the low to mid 70s across the nearshore waters out to mid-lake. Little upwelling expected until the weekend when winds turn predominately west to northwest. Hence water temperatures expected to remain mild next several days. Average Lake MI temperature running about two degrees above the long-term average for early August. Land-based heating expected to result in a lake breeze developing over the near shore and shore areas late this morning and early afternoon. Wind speeds expected to rise mostly to 8 to 10 knots with a few gusts potentially of 13-15 knots. Next chance for precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning when weak cold front moves through the area. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Light winds and dew points in the middle to upper 60s should allow for light fog to form across the area early this morning, with more concentrated fog in low lying areas. This fog should dissipate by middle morning. Quiet weather is expected today, with warm and humid conditions. Winds should shift onshore near Lake Michigan by late morning and linger in the afternoon. This should keep temperatures there down a bit. Inland areas should reach the upper 80s for highs today. Heat index values should be in the lower to middle 90s inland. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by afternoon inland. 00Z model runs are now keeping the northwestern areas dry later tonight. It seems like the best forcing for upward vertical motion will remain to the west later tonight. Kept low POPs in the forecast for now in the northwest, but these may need removal later on, if dry look to models continues. There should be more light fog development later tonight across the area, as winds become relatively light with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. Lows tonight will be similar. THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium A very warm and very humid airmass will be in place and sustained by a southerly lower level flow. 925 temps will be into the mid 20s celsius and consensus of MOS numbers supports dew points in the low to mid 70s. So rather uncomfortable. 591dm ridge axis collapses somewhat as the day wears on with lower level forcing tied to the surface/850 frontal boundaries will hold off to the northwest of the cwa. With 850 LLJ starting to lean a bit more into cwa and a slight indication of some dcva will keep mention of tsra across mainly the western and northwest cwa as the day wears on. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium Expecting an unsettled period as more vigorous shortwave activity arrives along with the surface/850 millibar frontal boundaries. So appears to be some decent lower level and mid/upper level forcing working in concert. MLCAPE from the ecmwf shows values aoa 1000 j/kg. 250 millibar jet core progd to ride to our north with increasing divergence noted in association with a the right rear quad of the jet core. So will continue the trend of higher pops this period. The slow movement of the front through the area into at least Friday morning could result in some much needed rainfall across srn WI. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - Confidence...Medium A cooler and drier air airmass will prevail in the wake of the departed frontal boundary. The low level thermal trough will be set up by Sunday and linger into Monday. Surface/850 ridging will dominate while the mid level flow will be on the cyclonic side. The ecmwf shows the strongest looking vort coming in late Saturday night into Sunday morning with the GEM and GFS weaker with more of an elongated/sheared appearance to this feature. Will stick with the quiet Superblend pops at this time. TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium The GFS builds up a 588dm ridge while the ECMWF keeps the mid level flow cyclonic with more weak waves passing through. Still the progs keep the area dry with any precip more likely to our north or west. Again, Superblend looks dry so will stick with it for now. With 925 flow likely to become either south or southwest, should see a little bounce back in the low level thermal pattern so will likely see temps nudge back into the 80s. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...May see light fog at TAF sites until middle morning, with light winds and humid conditions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions today into this evening. Light south winds are expected at Madison, with east southeast winds at the eastern sites. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds are expected by late morning, lingering into the afternoon. Light winds are expected tonight, with clearing skies. Should see more light fog later tonight at TAF sites, with visibilities down to around 3 miles possible. MARINE...East southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected today across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Waves will remain in the 1 to 2 foot range. May see light fog develop over the lake later tonight, with light winds and a humid airmass in place. Could see more light fog at times into Friday, with the warm and humid airmass over the area. Winds should be high enough to prevent dense fog formation. A passing cold front Thursday night into Friday will likely bring thunderstorms to the area. Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels into Friday. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...Collar  FXUS63 KMKX 210831 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 331 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Weak low pressure trof rotating around departing southern Canada low pressure, and low level cold air surge, will bring a period of lower clouds to southern WI this morning. A light shower or sprinkle may affect northeast CWA. Weak forcing slides off to the east late this morning. However, sct-bkn cumulus likely to redevelop in lingering moist, cyclonic flow. May be just enough instability to set off a few isold -shra over ern CWA in the early to mid aftn. Otherwise, cyclonic flow flattens late today into tonight, as upper level jet axis shifts east of the area, and thermal trof slides off to the east as well. Hence, expect mostly clear skies for tonight. Boundary layer winds will weaken enough to allow patchy fog to develop over far western areas late tonight, with widespread fog in the WI river valley. Clouds and cooler air in place will hold daytime temps peaking in the low to mid 70s, with 50s tngt. .MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models are in decent agreement with trends Monday into Tuesday. Zonal flow at 500 mb transitions into a ridge during this period. At the surface, high pressure southeast of the region allows for south to southwest winds to develop, as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat. This brings some warm air advection into the region. Area forecast soundings remain fairly dry during this period. Thus, quiet weather with warming temperatures and increasing dew points are expected during this time. Models show a little more uncertainty for Tuesday night, as they differ on the timing with the next 500 mb shortwave trough sliding northeast into the region. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF bring this feature into southwest Wisconsin by 12Z Wednesday with light QPF in the western counties. The Canadian is slower amd keeps the area dry. Area forecast soundings show moisture advection into the region helping bring a rather moist adiabatic lapse rate profile, with some modest elevated CAPE. Continued to bring in chance POPs for Tuesday night in forecast. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. The GFS/ECMWF bring the 500 mb shortwave trough northeast through the region Wednesday morning, with the cold front sliding east through the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night, exiting to the east Thursday. GFS forecast soundings showing decent mean layer CAPE at times, with steadily increasing deep layer shear as the front approaches the area. Continued the consensus POPs for thunder Wednesday into Wednesday night, then lowering Thursday with some lingering showers. Warm and humid conditions are expected during this period. High pressure should then build into the region Thursday night into Friday night, bringing less humid conditions and a period of quiet weather. Chances for precipitation return Saturday, with next system shifting northeast into the region. More uncertainty exists this far out in the forecast, so stayed close to consensus POPs and temperatures. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Period of MVFR cigs likely to affect TAF sites this morning, as low pressure short wave trof moves southeast through srn WI. Small chance for a brief light shower or sprinkle, mainly north of TAF sites. Expect sct-bkn cu to reform for several hours, after weak short wave forcing slides southeast of the area later this morning. Hence, not expecting significant clearing until mid afternoon or later. && .MARINE... Will continue Small Craft Advisory through mid-morning. Still receiving recent observations of west to northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots just offshore, including Racine Reef Light and Atwater Buoy. Gradually weakening pressure gradient will allow wind gusts to fall below 22 knots later this morning into the afternoon. Offshore winds will continue through tonight, with winds backing to the south on Monday. Latest MODIS imagery shows that the offshore winds have resulted in upwelling of cooler subsurface water along the near shore waters. Lake surface temp has cooled into the 50s. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning for LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Monday THROUGH Saturday...Wood  FXUS63 KMKX 220832 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 332 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High. A quiet period is expected through tonight. Low level ridge axis will shift to the east this morning, allowing low level winds to increase from the south. Plenty of sunshine and south winds will result in a warmer day, with temperatures recovering back to around seasonal normals for mid-August. Winds will veer to the south to southeast by Lake Michigan this afternoon, causing temperatures at the shore to stabilize, and likely even slip a few degrees, due to cooler nearshore waters. Low level jet will be focused to the west today, and to the north tonight, as mid-level high pressure ridge builds briefly back into the region. Possible some mid or high clouds may graze southern WI this aftn and tonight, as warm air and mid-level moisture surges in from the Central Plains. Despite light boundary layer winds over western CWA, and low dew point depressions, seeing very little fog development on webcams and surface observations. Hence wl confine fog mention to WI River valley, and far west closer to low level ridge axis early this morning. .TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models remain in good agreement with showing a 500 mb ridge sliding northeast through the region on Tuesday. A tightening pressure gradient should result in increasing south winds. High pressure will remain to the southeast of the region. This should continue to bring warmer air into the region. Area forecast soundings are still fairly dry on Tuesday, so kept forecast dry. May see winds back southeast along the lake in the afternoon. Models then are in decent agreement with bringing a 500 mb shortwave trough northeast into Wisconsin late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In addition, a low level jet nose at 850 mb points into eastern Iowa into northern Illinois later Tuesday night, before weakening and shifting to the east Wednesday morning. Area forecast soundings show a quick moistening of the air column late Tuesday night, lingering into Wednesday morning. There is some elevated CAPE with modest deep layer shear. Increased POPs into likely category by Wednesday morning across most of the area. Cold front then moves east through the region Wednesday afternoon and evening, then off to the east by later Wednesday night. Frontogenesis response with the front is fairly weak during this time. Still, adjusted area forecast soundings show some mean layer CAPE again, with modest deep layer shear. Continued likely POPs into the afternoon, with POPs lowering Wednesday night. Precipitation during this time may be more scattered in nature, with the weaker upward vertical motion fields. Storm Prediction Center has area in Marginal Risk for severe storms on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Given the modest deep layer shear and modest CAPE, this seems reasonable. However, any cloud cover with the precipitation may limit CAPE values. In addition, heavy rainfall may be possible during this time, as several parameters are favorable. Precipitable water values reach 2.00 inches on both NAM and GFS for Wednesday. A lot will depend on how unstable it gets, as well as how strong the shear and storm propagation gets. Warm and humid conditions are expected. .THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. GFS/ECMWF are showing cold air advection behind the front for Thursday, with high pressure pushing east across the region Thursday night and Friday. This should bring a period of quiet weather, with less humid conditions. These models then bring a 500 mb shortwave trough northeastward into Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Sunday, with southwest flow across the region Friday night into Saturday night. Most of the QPF with the warm air advection remains just west of the area Friday night, then shifts into the area Saturday into Sunday. For now, will continue to have POPs for showers and storms for most of this period. Friday night may end up dry, if the models continue to trend westward with QPF and forcing for upward vertical motion during that period. Warm and humid conditions should prevail during this time. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR conditions expected for the period. Some light fog may affect TAF sites early this morning, but any visibility restriction will be brief, not more than an hour or two. Better boundary layer mixing should prevent significant fog later tonight, despite slightly higher low level relative humidity. && .MARINE... A quiet period through Tuesday, with winds turning onshore late this morning or early afternoon. With the backing winds, Lake Michigan lake surface temperatures should rebound back into the mid 60s to lower 70s, as the cooler upwelling waters currently in the nearshore waters gradually warm. MODIS image from Sunday evening measured the lake surface temperature anywhere from the mid 50s at the shore off of Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties, to the upper 60s toward the open waters. Tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cold front will cause increasing south to southeast winds Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gusts will approach Small Craft Advisory levels during this period. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Wood  FXUS63 KMKX 261709 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1209 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016 .UPDATE... Extensive area of middle to high clouds continues to slide northeast into the area. This should continue this afternoon into this evening, with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected. There may be some diurnal cumulus in the sunnier areas as well. Lake breeze already occurring around Milwaukee and south, and will continue this afternoon. Scattered showers continue to fall apart as they approach the area from the southwest, as there is a good amount of dry air below 10000 feet above ground level. Thus, any shower activity should hold off this afternoon. 12Z model runs continue to differ somewhat with the location of the low level jet nose and focused warm air advection tonight into Saturday morning. The NAM is the furthest to the northwest of the area, with the Canadian focused over the area, and the GFS between them. All models do bring some QPF across the area later tonight into Saturday morning. The mesoscale models are showing a similar trend with bringing a round of showers and storms through the area later tonight into early Saturday morning. Thus, will continue the higher end POPs for this period, perhaps raising them up to categorical in at least the western counties. Precipitation chances Saturday afternoon are still rather murky, as it will depend on clouds clearing the area after the warm front moves to the north. There will be modest deep layer bulk shear with weak to modest mean layer CAPE, assuming some clearing of the clouds. There will still be some upper divergence from the right rear quadrant of the 250 mb jet streak lingering, and some of the mesoscale models develop isolated to scattered convection in or west of the area later in the afternoon. Marginal severe risk and marginal heavy rainfall risk exists in parts of the area Saturday. For now, will continue chance POPs for the afternoon hours. Wood && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening across TAF sites. Lake breeze this afternoon will turn winds east to southeast at Milwaukee and Kenosha, probably reaching Waukesha as well. Light and variable winds are expected at Madison. Some diurnal cumulus is possible in the sunnier areas this afternoon. Otherwise, middle to high clouds will gradually thicken through the afternoon and evening. Should see a period of on and off showers and thunderstorms later tonight into early Saturday morning across TAF sites, as warm and moist air pushes north into the area with a warm front. Should see MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times, down to around 1000 feet and 3 miles. Winds will become easterly by later tonight, gradually veering south to southeast on Saturday. Should see a lull in the precipitation later Saturday morning into the afternoon. May see more scattered showers and storms later Saturday afternoon into the evening, but too uncertain at this time to mention in TAFs. Wood && .MARINE... Light wind regime will result in northwest winds turning onshore late this morning and early afternoon. Wind speeds will remain in the 5 to 10 knot range, with lower wave heights. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to affect the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan late tonight into Saturday morning. Warm and more humid air will return to the region. Recent offshore winds continued to reinforce colder upwelling waters in the shallower nearshore waters. Atwater Beach buoy measuring a lake surface temperature of 48 degrees, while recent MODIS imagery measured lake surface temps in the 50s across the nearshore waters, while mid-lake temps remain in the lower 70s. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium. High pressure will move across WI today although scattered to broken cirrus will occur due to swly flow aloft and the upstream convection. The high clouds will probably keep temps down a degree or two along with an afternoon lake breeze as well. Highs in the mid- upper 70s for today. For tonight, a shortwave trough will track from NE to srn MN. A wave of low pressure will follow into IA with a sly 30 kt LLJ moving into srn WI. The models differ on the exact placement of the LLJ with some focusing farther west than others. Confidence is such to go with likely PoPs over south central WI with high chance PoPs in ern WI. PWs will rise to 1.5-1.8 inches with the thetae advection while elevated CAPE will be very minimal due to mid level lapse rates of 5.5-6.0 C/KM. The showers and storms that do occur should have moderate to heavy rainfall rates but will likely be brief. SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium Showers/storms will be likely across southern Wisconsin Saturday as the first wave lifts northward. This first round may be limited to the morning...with a break possible late morning into the afternoon between waves. Another wave may then bring more storms late afternoon into the evening. Overall, models not in great agreement with timing and placement of convection. Though confidence is on the higher end that there will be showers/storms on Saturday, not nearly as confident in the timing at this point. Should see near normal temps on Saturday. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence...Medium Deeper moisture will be south of the area on Sunday, so went mainly dry. Should be a pleasant day. Near zonal flow Monday will transition to northwest flow between a ridge building to the west and an upper low passing through well to the northeast. Could see a couple weak waves move through the forecast area...so kept some pops going into mid-week. By Wednesday, the ECMWF and Canadian push the bulk of moisture and instability south and west of the forecast area. The GFS remains moist and unstable Wed and Thu. Kept some pops per the GFS, but would be dry if the ECMWF/Canadian solutions pan out. Should see temps a bit above normal through Tuesday. There is less certainty beyond that due to the previously mentioned model differences for Wed/Thu. Generally kept temps in between the warmer GFS and cooler ECMWF/Canadian solutions. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... VFR conditions today and this evening with only sct-bkn cirrus today with a mid level deck of clouds for the evening. After midnight, scattered to numerous showers and tstorms are expected to develop as a warm front approaches from the sw. Cigs will lower and may become MVFR toward sunrise or afterward. Cigs and vsbys will be reduced with any showers and storms. MARINE... Relatively light winds and low wave heights are expected for today and the weekend over the western shore of Lake MI. A lake breeze is expected this afternoon with esely winds continuing tonight and Saturday. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wood/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring Saturday THROUGH Thursday...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 281554 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1054 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .UPDATE... Area of low stratus and fog still hanging around from west to east across the central portions of the forecast area. This should continue to slowly erode and mix out into the early afternoon hours, as daytime heating continues. May still see some scattered to broken diurnal cumulus development, though not confident in this occurring. High pressure will slide east across the area today, then slowly to the east tonight into Monday. Decoupling winds and dew points remaining in the 60s should lead to another good chance for fog later tonight into Monday morning, with dense fog possible. Will continue to evaluate potential, and the need for a headline. Easterly winds are expected this afternoon near Lake Michigan, which will keep temperatures there a little cooler than inland. As long as low clouds mix out early this afternoon, highs should get into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, per 925 mb temperatures. Wood && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Fog and low stratus clouds should gradually mix out by early afternoon across Madison, Waukesha and Milwaukee, with VFR conditions expected this afternoon. Winds will become easterly at the eastern sites this afternoon, and southeast at Madison. May see scattered to broken diurnal cumulus develop, but uncertainty exists with this occurring. Another round of fog, with dense fog possible, should occur by later this evening into Monday morning. High pressure moving slowly east of the area will bring light/calm winds once again, with a moist airmass lingering. Visibilities below alternate minimums, down to 1/2 to 1 mile, seem reasonable between 06Z and 14Z Monday. It may begin earlier. 1/4 mile or less visibilities are possible with dense fog, but may leave out of 18Z TAFs for now, until better handle on timing and areal extent is attained. May also see low stratus develop with the fog, with very low ceilings near airport minimums. Once the fog and low stratus mix out by middle to late morning on Monday, the rest of the day should be VFR category with scattered to broken diurnal cumulus cloud development. Wood && .MARINE... Nearshore waters will remain in a light wind regime through Monday. Moist air over the cool nearshore waters will result in periods of fog, possibly into Monday night. Enough breaks in the clouds last night to get a MODIS snapshot of the lake surface temps around 07z. Lake surface temps at the time were mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with a cool spot in the lower 50s offshore of the Ozaukee/Sheboygan county line. Surface dew points wl remain in the 60s, resulting in areas of fog. Light and variable winds will turn light onshore late this morning and early afternoon, and then veer back to predominantly offshore tonight. The fog may become dense tonight. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is medium. A strong shortwave just north of Lake Superior will move east northeast with Southern Wisconsin in the right entrance region of the weakening upper jet as it moves off into southeast Canada. Then a weak zonal flow extends across southern Wisconsin tonight. Little in the way of any 700 mb upward motion until towards sunrise in areas northwest of Madison. 700 mb west winds diminish this morning and remain light through tonight as a weak 700/850 mb ridge builds back across southern Wisconsin. 700 mb RH remains low but does increase a little north areas late tonight. Dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan. Forecast soundings show zero to 1 km CAPE increases to around 700 Joules/kg this afternoon, but has a cap around 850 mb, along with dry air above the cap. Therefore do not expect much potential for showers. limited moisture below the cap and this dries tonight. As a result expect fog potential again tonight. MONDAY - Confidence...Medium Surface high shifts a bit to the east into the eastern Lakes. 850 high proggd vcnty of se WI or ne IL. Light wind regime likely to allow for some morning fog. 591DM broad mid level ridging is expected. So will keep POPS quiet...in the single digits per MOS. 925 temps rise just a smidge into the lower 20s celsius with a better hint of a return flow. TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium Surface/850 boundary expected to focus a chance of shra/tsra. Mid level flow becomes more cyclonic from the northwest though better vorticity resides to the northeast and southwest of the CWA. So expect low level convergence acting upon instability axis ahead of the front to be the primary focus mechanism for convection. Main cool push arrives Tuesday night as 925 winds turn northwest and eventually northeast. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium Shaping up to be a rather quiet with dominating surface high. Low level thermal trough will be in place with 925 temps both Thursday and Friday in the low to mid teens celsius. Surface high shifts east on Saturday to allow for a return flow and a moderation in the 925 thermal pattern to the upper teens or lower 20s celsius. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Widespread IFR/LIFR in fog/stratus expected early this morning. Vsbys will improve to VFR with morning mix-out by mid/late morning. Winds will be light through the period with low-level moisture bringing another good chance for fog by midnight tonight into Monday morning. MARINE...Will see areas of fog as high low-level moisture moves over the cooler waters of the lake trough early morning. Expect light east winds by afternoon. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wood/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar  FXUS63 KMKX 282037 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 335 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016 .TONIGHT AND MONDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium. Mainly scattered diurnal cumulus should linger until sunset, with light easterly winds. Any convection to the south and southwest of the forecast area will remain in those areas into this evening. High pressure will slide slowly to the east tonight into Monday. Decoupling winds and dew points remaining in the 60s should lead to another good chance for fog later tonight into Monday morning, with dense fog possible. Went with areas of fog, with patchy dense fog, in the forecast for later tonight into early Monday morning. More widespread dense fog is possible during this period, with not a whole lot changing from last night. May see some low stratus development with the fog as well. A headline may be needed by later shifts for dense fog later tonight into early Monday morning. It may take awhile during the morning hours for the fog and any low stratus to dissipate across portions of the area. Things should become partly sunny by the afternoon, with some diurnal cumulus development in the warm and humid airmass. Went with highs in the mid 80s inland, with mid 70s to around 80 lakeside. Any convection Monday afternoon should remain south and southwest of the area, as there is not much in the way of forcing for upward vertical motion over the forecast area. Some uncertainty here, but left the forecast dry for now. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium. Focus of this period on small chance for convection developing ahead and along cold front that will be moving through southern WI Tue aftn/eve. Column moisture will remain in place until the front moves through, with precipitable water values remaining 1.25 to 1.5 inches. Synoptic scale forcing remains weak Monday night through Tuesday night. Thinking best chance for convection will be Tuesday into early Tue evening when some increase in upper level divergence affects southern WI due to strengthening right entrance region of upper jet. 0-6km bulk shear to remain weak, below 20 kts, however Cape likely to increase to over 1500 j/kg. Some concern over weakly channeled vorticity spreading into southern WI later Monday night at the same time as some weak low level moisture flux convergence in the area. Added schc pops west of Madison for late in the night. Drier and less humid air will settle in late Tue night and Wed behind departing cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected beginning Wednesday. High temps likely to remain in the 70s on Wednesday. .EXTENDED PERIOD... WEDENSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...Medium to High. Good consistency and agreement in Medium Range guidance showing more amplified weather pattern developing mid-week and persisting into at least the start of the holiday weekend. Amplifying longwave troffing over eastern Pacific and western CONUS will move slowly eastward later in the week. Downstream blocking ridge will expand into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes which will result in dry and comfortable conditions for much of this extended period. A reinforcing push of cooler air in strengthening northwest flow will drop 925h temps into the 12 to 16C range on Thu and Fri. Pending sunshine, daytime temps may only peak in the low to mid 70s both days, with warmer temps returning over the weekend. A few low spots may fall below 50 Thursday night. Tropical system still expected to affect southeast CONUS slowing down steering level pattern change across Upper Midwest over the weekend. Hence upstream ejection of mid-level short wave from long wave trof delayed in helping to flatten ridge and may not bring a chance for precipition to southern WI until Sat night or Sunday. However, noticed 12z ECMWF not nearly as amplified with this feature crossing FL late in the week. Will watch other medium range guidance to see if this trend continues. Enjoy the great weather this upcoming week! && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... Scattered diurnal cumulus should dissipate by early evening across TAF sites. VFR conditions should prevail for a time this evening, with light winds. Another round of fog, with dense fog possible, should occur by later this evening into Monday morning. High pressure moving slowly east of the area will bring light/calm winds once again, with a moist airmass lingering. Visibilities below alternate minimums, down to 1/2 to 1 mile, seem reasonable between 06Z and 14Z Monday. It may begin earlier than that. 1/4 mile or less visibilities are possible with dense fog, but may leave out of 00Z TAFs for now, until better handle on timing and areal extent is attained. May also see low stratus develop with the fog, with very low ceilings near airport minimums. Some uncertainty here as well, so will keep any low clouds scattered for now. Once the fog and low stratus mix out by late morning on Monday, the rest of the day should be VFR category, with scattered to broken diurnal cumulus cloud development. Light southeast to south winds are expected. && .MARINE... Nearshore waters will remain in a light wind regime through Monday. Moist air over the cool nearshore waters will result in periods of fog, possibly into Monday night. Best shot will be later tonight into Monday morning, and again Monday night. MODIS satellite imagery of sea surface temperatures still show mid to upper 50s lake temperatures in the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan along the Sheboygan and Ozaukee County shoreline, with lower to mid 60s south of there. Given the mid 60s dew points expected later tonight into Monday morning, there should be fog, with patchy dense fog. More widespread dense fog may develop, and a headline may be needed in later forecasts. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. $$ TONIGHT AND MONDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...Wood MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Kavinsky  FXUS63 KMKX 291657 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1157 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 .UPDATE... Scattered showers with middle to high clouds continue to develop to the southwest of the area, and push toward the far western counties. Weak differential cyclonic vorticity advection and some weak 850 mb moisture pooling helping generate these showers. These may hold together enough to make it into the far western and southwestern parts of the area into this afternoon. Added some POPs to these areas during this period. Enough mean layer CAPE should develop to bring a few thunderstorms as well. Outflow boundary from storms to the north also pushing southward toward the area. This was helping produce some showers to the north, but not much development has been seen in the past hour. Will watch this for additional isolated shower/storm development into this afternoon in the northern counties. Middle to high clouds may continue to push east across the southern and central portions of the area this afternoon. Not much confidence here with trends, though the 500 mb relative humidity fields on models do show these clouds hanging around the southern half of the area into tonight. Will add more clouds to the south and central portions of the area during this time. This may affect highs this afternoon in those areas, so lowered temperatures a few degrees. Wood && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Middle to high clouds should spread across a good portion of the area this afternoon into tonight. May see scattered to broken diurnal cumulus development as well, in case the higher clouds do not make it all the way across the area. An isolated shower or storm may affect Madison this afternoon, though not enough confidence to mention in TAFs at this time. Light east to southeast winds are expected. Small chances for showers/storms are forecast for tonight, with a better chance Tuesday into Tuesday evening with a cold front passing southeast through the area. Will carry mainly VFR category ceilings and visibilities into Tuesday, with a possible vicinity thunder mention Tuesday afternoon. Any storms should be scattered in nature, with brief heavy rain and MVFR/IFR visibilities possible. May see light fog later tonight into early Tuesday morning, with light winds and a moist airmass lingering. Presence of middle to high clouds may limit dense fog chances to low lying areas. Winds will become southwest to west on Tuesday, remaining rather light. Wood && .MARINE... Recent MODIS imagery from Sunday continued to show the effect of recent upwelling of cooler waters in the nearshore waters. MODIS estimated lake surface temperatures mostly in the low to mid 60s, while mid-lake temperatures were measured in the low to mid 70s. Light wind regime will continue through tonight. Onshore winds of mostly 5 to 10 knots are expected today, becoming offshore tonight. Lingering warm, humid air over cooler near shore waters should continue to produce patchy fog and haze until cold front passes through Tuesday night. MBK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016/ TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. A moderate zonal upper flow extends across Wisconsin today with a weak ridge trying to briefly build into the south toward evening. Weak upper divergence this afternoon and into tonight. Little in the way of any 700 mb upward motion until later tonight. Southern Wisconsin in in the northern fringe of a mid level ridge with an 850 mb ridge across the southern Great Lakes. Weak 850/700 mb winds. 700 mb RH remains low but does increase late tonight, especially south. 850 mb dewpoints are around 15 Celsius south and west of Madison but only around 3 Celsius near Lake Michigan. As a result there is a tight gradient of Zero to 1 km CAPE this afternoon from around 1100 Joules/kg along the Illinois border and west of Madison to less than 150 Joules/KG near Sheboygan. Patchy dense fog is possible, but more clouds and a weak wind has limited a lot of the fog to mainly northeast areas. Any dense Fog should mix out by mid/late morning, which should give mainly scattered cumulus, and a warm day. Light winds will become easterly during the afternoon near Lake Michigan. However the GFS has a cap around 20 Joules/kg just below 850 mb with fairly dry air above. RAP soundings have the cap weakening. Surface based CAPE is around 2200 Joules/kg, so an isolated thunderstorm is possible in the high CAPE region, but lack of forcing will limit the possibility. There will be a small chance of thunderstorms tonight as upper forcing increases a little along with column moistening and elevated CAPE is around 1000 Joules/kg. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium Warm and humid airmass will be in place ahead of frontal boundary dropping in from the north. Mid level flow will be from the northwest with no pronounced shortwave within the flow. However the 250 jet strengthens a bit just to our north with some divergence noted with this jet segment that is proggd to be situated ahead of the mid/upper level trough axis. Low level forcing will contribute to a good deal of this lift with the absence of the mid level shortwave. ECMWF MLCAPE progd to rise to near 1000 j/kg. 0-6km Bulk shear and 700/500 lapse rates are not impressive. However the instability combined with the surface/850 lift should be enough to get some storms going with SPC having the CWA in a Marginal Risk at this time. Still some uncertainty on convective evolution and timing with various solutions in this regard. Quite the disparity in the MOS POPs as well with the NAM showing a dry bias and the GFS a wet one. Will use the Superblend approach for now in the handling of the POPs. The cooler post-frontal airmass arrives later Tuesday night as winds turn decidedly from the north and northeast with some gustiness expected esp in the eastern CWA in closer proximity to Lake Michigan. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium A cool pattern sets up with srn WI situated on western periphery of large scale upper trough across the eastern Lakes/NE US. Low level thermal trough showing some chilly temps at 850/925. In fact, seeing some single digit celsius readings at 850 Wednesday night into Thursday. Given the warm lake waters and the cooler 850 temps seeing some delta t values into the teens so at least supportive of a bit more cloud cover. For now will keep any mention of lake effect sprinkles/shra out of forecast, but something to monitor for later Wednesday night into Thursday when combo of favorable onshore traj overlaps with peak min values within low level thermal trough. By Friday the cool starts to ease with 588Dm mid level ridge sliding across. SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium Appears that the influence of the mid level ridge will hold with a return flow setting up in the low levels. The progs are showing a southerly flow that results in further modification of the low level thermal profile. SUNDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium Mid level ridge axis shifts to the east of WI with a southwest regime taking hold. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a negative tilted shortwave traversing western/northern WI with some DCVA affecting the CWA. The 00z ECMWF keeps precip to our west with the wave while the 00z GFS shows this spreading into the northwest CWA. Will retain the Superblend approach which shows the better potential in the northwest CWA. Southerly low level flow strengthens further with 925 temps rising to near 20c. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...With a bit more surface pressure gradient than last night, that is keeping surface winds in the 5 knot range in the west, and some high clouds, widespread dense fog formation is still uncertain. Some dense fog is beginning to develop in the northeast with lesser surface winds. Should see IFR/LIFR conditions in northeast areas and patchy LIFR in river valleys elsewhere until 14-15Z. VFR conditions expected after the fog lifts through the end of the forecast. Scattered cumulus around 4 thsd ft this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon over south central Wisconsin and across the forecast area tonight. MARINE...Light easterly winds and a moist boundary layer brings prospects for fog back to the nearshore waters early this morning. Web cams are not showing much fog at this time near shoreline. Will keep mention of areas of fog but no marine fog advisory at this time. Winds veer to the southeast...today...then south and southwest late tonight with the approach of a surface trough. Wind speeds and wave heights will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Wood/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar  FXUS63 KMKX 301509 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 .UPDATE... Shower and thunderstorm activity over northern Illinois is weakening and moving off to the east this morning. Our southern forecast area looks to avoid any chances of rainfall this morning, so removed chance PoPs for our southern counties through this morning. Current radar shows evidence of a pre-frontal boundary ahead of the effective cold front expected to act as the mechanism for shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon. For now, kept slight chance PoPs in the forecast across our forecast area due to this pre-frontal boundary. The 30.13z HRRR model isn't progging any shower/thunderstorm activity until 17z today, so will maintain chances of thunderstorms in the forecast for the afternoon. This activity may be out of the area by the evening if the current HRRR run holds. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Mainly VFR conditions, with some low-end MVFR/IFR cigs, especially from the MSN TAF site and points west. Any vsby reductions from this morning should mix-out as the day goes on. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon as a cold front sweeps through S WI. Confidence is not high that all TAF sites will see TS, so will likely maintain VCTS through the afternoon. Approximate timing for thunderstorms looks to be between 17z and 00z today. Look for a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds for eastern locations as the cold front moves through, with a brief period of 15 to 20 kt winds. && .MARINE... Light wind flow regime to continue today, however less onshore winds expected. West to southwest winds will turn more south to southeast for a time as lake breeze develops today. However outflow boundary from early morning convection continues to move southeast and will affect Sheboygan to Port Washington marine zone, and possible next marine zone southward for a few hours late this morning and early afternoon. Besides possibly setting off a shower or storm, the outflow boundary will result in an hour or two of more west to northwest winds before becoming more south to southeast once again. Recent MODIS imagery measured lake surface temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over most of the near shore waters, which is about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than over the weekend. Hence less threat for dense fog. Main cold front over northern WI will sweep thru near shore waters tonight. Winds will abruptly shift to the north to northeast and increase. RAP and NAM now showing a 1-3 hour period of gusty north to northeast winds exceeding 22 knots overnight across northern Marine zones, while latest GFS soundings not as windy. For now, planning on holding off on Small Craft Advy and think Marine Weather Statements may be needed for the overnight brief period of gusty winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Band of showers and storms sagging south through nw WI and east- central MN ahead of pre-frontal surface trough in region of weak 925 and 850 mb frontogenesis and differential CVA ahead of a vorticity maximum south of main short wave trough tracking east across nrn Ontario. The strongest cells in east-central MN are riding the outflow boundary south-southwest along corridor of richer lower- level moisture pooling ahead of the 925 mb trough within a pocket of modest mid-level lapse rates around 7C/km. The showers/storms to the east are diminishing as outflow races out ahead with only an isolated shower or storm quickly popping up and dying along the boundary. Other showers and storms are re-firing over northern Illinois ahead of a weak vort max/MCV within region of nearly stationary moisture convergence and moving east just south of the border. A few light showers within region of differential CVA with this feature are crossing western sections of the CWA. Will have slight chance/low chance PoPs in the southern forecast area this morning to account for the potential of the southern band of showers/storms in IL slipping into southern WI. Then chance PoPs this afternoon with the weak forcing along the cold front, tapering off from northwest to southeast this evening as the front moves through. Could see some gusty north-northeast winds along the lake as hi-res models indicate the front moving a bit faster down the lake versus inland, with a brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface right behind the front. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY - Confidence...Medium to High Cold advection regime sets up Wednesday into Thursday as low level thermal trough becomes established across the area. We will be situated on western side of evolving mid/upper level trough across the NE US. The NAM and GEM are more pronounced with a glancing shortwave riding sewd in this flow while the GFS and ECMWF keep this wave further east. 925 temps will settle into the low to mid teens celsius. So a much cooler and more comfortable/drier airmass this period. The mid level ridge axis starts to slide across WI on Friday. SATURDAY - Confidence...Medium to High The surface high shifts well to the east though the expansive anticyclonic influence lingers into srn WI. So another quiet day in the works. The mid level ridge shifts east as well so we start to see a more southwest flow at 500 millibars. The 925 temps bounce back a bit due to a switch to a more southerly low level trajectory. SUNDAY - Confidence...Medium The southerly low level flow strengthens further with 925 temps rising into the low 20s celsius. The 500 millibar flow remains southwest with the GFS is a bit more robust on the shortwave activity riding through. Other models are weaker with this feature and with a track more to our northwest. Primary cyclogenesis and frontal convergence remains well to our west. While core of strongest 850 jet remains across IA/ern MN and nw WI there is an eastward extension of this jet with some moist advection and the wave that suggests the Superblend pops are onto something for our western CWA so will leave them as is for now. LABOR DAY - Confidence...Low Differences arise with the GFS building ridge axis north keeping things less progressive on the shortwave energy front. meanwhile the ECMWF shows things moving along with frontal system and band of convection. The GFS implies a more east/west oriented frontal boundary laying across central WI with still some convective chances here but this scenario would suggest more scattered activity while the ECMWF solution shows more widespread shra/tsra with the cold frontal passage. Given the range of solutions will stick with the Superblend guidance for now. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Mid level cloud deck has limited extent of fog coverage overnight and have adjusted TAFs for a more optimistic vsby forecast in the near term. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast, though expect scattered showers and storms to develop along a weak cold front this afternoon and evening, pushing southeast of the forecast area between 09Z and 12Z Wednesday. Will keep pcpn mention as vicinity for now, though MVFR cigs/vsbys with any showers/storms that reach TAF sites. Looking for a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds at far eastern locations with cold front moving a bit faster down Lake Michigan versus inland, with a brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface right behind the front. MARINE...Looking at potential of a few showers or thunderstorms slipping north into the southern marine zones this morning, but scattered showers and storms will hold off until this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops through the region. Looking for a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds with cold front moving a bit faster down Lake Michigan versus inland, with a brief period of 15 to 20 knot winds within 1k ft of the surface right behind the front. This will build wave heights to 2 to 4 feet by Wednesday morning. North winds and waves will approach Small Craft Advisory levels Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...JTS/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Collar  FXUS63 KMKX 180156 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 856 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016 .UPDATE...Stratocumulus deck over west central WI continued to shrink and dissipate through the early evening as only a few patches of sct-bkn around 4k feet remain. With a moderate overnight inversion expected and temperatures falling a few degreees below the crossover temperature, need to add at least patchy fog mention to the late night. Lowered temperatures in a few locations as well. Lingering thermal trof and weak passing mid-level short wave may cause some cloud redevelopment but low levels do dry out during the late night, adding to a better chance of fog development. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...Stratocumulus deck continued to shrink and dissipate through the early evening. Only a few patches of sct-bkn around 4k feet remain in the vicinity. Thermal trof and weak 5H wave does pass across srn WI late tonight into early Sunday which may generate more patchy clouds during the late night. However, low levels begin to dry out later in the night, so thinking some patchy fog may develop and affect several taf sites late tonight. For now due to uncertainty, wl keep the visibility restriction in the MVFR category. && .MARINE...Recent MODIS imagery showed upwelling of colder sub- surface water has taken place over the past day or so. Lake surface temps have fallen into the 50s. A weak pressure gradient is expected across southeast WI and lower Lake MI on Sunday. The combination of the weak pressure gradient and a tighter thermal gradient should result in a better chance for a lake breeze to develop near the lake shore by Sunday afternoon. Hence went with more SE winds. && .BEACHES...The 2016 Beach Hazard season on Lake Michigan will end tomorrow, September 18th. The last Recreational Beach Forecast for beaches along Lake Michigan from Sheboygan county to Kenosha county will be issued around 5 pm September 18th. The National Weather Service Beach Hazard Program will return in May 2017, shortly before the Memorial Day weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2016/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High The northern portion of high pressure will build into southern Wisconsin tonight, then slide southeastward a bit on Sunday. Should see skies eventually turn mostly clear this evening into tonight as the high builds in and daytime heating is lost. Should see a lot of sunshine then on Sunday. Could see a little fog develop tonight, the best chance in low lying areas such as the Wisconsin River valley. Seems like just enough wind in the lower levels to keep widespread fog from forming. Temps tonight and Wednesday will remain a few degrees above normal. Sunday night through Tuesday...Forecast confidence medium. Swly flow and low to middle level warm advection is expected Sun nt into Mon. This is in response to a 120 kt wly jet stream becoming established along the US and Canadian border. The nose of the strong upper jet will drive a strong shortwave trough across the nrn Plains and nrn Great Lakes. The strongest surge of thetae advection will be Mon morning followed by the gradual passage of the cold front for the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms will be possible with the thetae advection but more favored storm organization will be along the cold front. MLCAPEs are expected to climb to 500-1000 joules along the cold front. Expect the initiation to be near the WI and IL border with at least scattered coverage. The Marginal Risk by SPC looks good given the deep layer shear of 40-45 kts. Above normal temps will continue for the early week with lower to middle 80s on Mon just ahead of the cold front. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...Forecast confidence medium. A low amplitude, but broad upper ridge will shift from the nrn High Plains to the Great Lakes from Wed to Sat in response to a large upper trough moving from the wrn USA to the nrn High Plains. This results in a warm front nosing into srn WI on Wed and becoming stalled for the remainder of the week. Thus relatively warm and humid conditions along with good chances of showers and thunderstorms each day. The cold frontal passage will be Sat or Sat nt. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... Could see MVFR ceilings try and sneak into the northwest this evening into tonight. High pressure will build overhead tonight, so not out of the question to see some fog develop later in the night. Otherwise, VFR conditions will then prevail through Sunday under high pressure. MARINE... Winds will be lighter under high pressure Sunday. Southwest winds could approach Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of approaching low pressure. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MBK TONIGHT/Sunday AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday...Gehring  FXUS63 KMKX 250830 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium. Will continue Flash Flood Watch across Sauk and Marquette counties due to susceptibility to any additional rainfall today. Short term guidance in good agreement on surge of column moisture this morning across southern WI as precipitable water increases one quarter to one half inch, approaching 2 inches by afternoon. Upstream front now located in western MN expected to slowly progress ewd and move into wrn CWA by late am, and exit ern CWA by early evening. Best chance for more numerous showers and storms will be this afternoon as front and low level frontogenetical forcing moves thru srn WI. However wl keep in lower pops for more showers this morning as mid- level moisture increases and upstream weak mid-level short wave clips srn wi. Expect anywhere from a tenth to six tenths of an inch as showers and storms expected to be more progressive over srn WI compared to upstream overnight scenario, but may still be more localized higher amounts so continuing Flash Flood Watch. Marginal Risk warranted as bulk shear to increase to 35 to 40 kts ahead of passing cold front while MUCape reaches around 1000 j/kg. Sfc dewpoints likely to increase into the upper 60s this aftn, pooling along cold front. Expect convection to end rapidly during the early evening behind front as drier, more stable conditions spread across srn WI. .MONDAY - Confidence...Medium The surface low is proggd to be situated north of Lake Superior. A much cooler and drier airmass will be set up as 1000/500 millibar thicknesses drop to near 546DM. The 925 temps will be are coldest on the GFS...dropping to 7-8C by days end with the NAM and ECMWF around 10-11c. West winds will make it feel even cooler. Some of the MOS guidance suggests some parts of the northern CWA may be lucky to hit 60 for daytime highs. A strongly cyclonic 500 millibar flow will become set up. The first vort lobe passes through in the morning with the overall circulation becoming entrenched across the Upper Midwest. Given this regime expect cloud cover to be fairly widespread with cyclonic flow aloft and low level thermal trough. For now will keep any shra chances across the northern CWA but may need to expand these POPS further south but will keep it in the north at the moment. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY - Confidence...Medium The models are in pretty decent agreement on waffling this 500 millibar low/expansive circulation slowly south through Tuesday evening and then eastward to the eastern Lakes region/Ohio Valley on Wednesday. The low level thermal trough will continue to amplify with 925 temps dropping to 5-8c this period. There will be an increased chance of showers across mainly the northern and eastern CWA as the surface/850 lows shift sse from Lake Superior. This will set up lower level forcing in combination with the mid level cyclonic flow. So the models are generating mainly light precip amounts...mainly a tenth or two. The ECWMF shows a little more enhanced low level troughing later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. .THURSDAY - Confidence...Low to Medium The GFS and GEM solutions show the 500 millibar low across the eastern Lakes and Ohio valley with the ECMWF showing much less progression further south and west. In fact it would keep at least our southern CWA on the northwest periphery of the expansive circulation. Meanwhile the GFS and GEM has rising heights for us with surface ridging dominating. Even the ECMWF solution still keeps us dry though a bit more of a ne wind with a tighter pressure gradient. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - Confidence...Low The model divergence becomes more pronounced as it relates to the positioning of the 500 millibar low. The ECMWF continues a trend towards retrogression in contrast the more progressive scenario of the GFS and GEM. The ECMWF drifts the low back towards lower MI for Saturday and this results in shra being wrapped back into srn WI. The GFS and GEM show the high dominating. At this time the Superblend POPS are leaning towards the dry solutions, and will stick with that route for the time being. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Thickening clouds likely to spread eastward this morning with the best chance for showers and a few storms affecting TAF sites from late morning through the afternoon. Cigs should be mainly VFR however may drop to MVFR with any showers or storms. Better chance for lower cigs late tonight and Monday as core of coldest air settles over southern WI in tight cyclonic flow. && .MARINE...Expect increasing south to southeast winds this morning as pressure gradient tightens ahead of approaching cold front. Recent MODIS imagery and nearby buoys measure near shore lake surface water temperature in the upper 50s to lower 60s while warmer sfc water in the lower 70s remain offshore. Will continue Small Craft Advisory today and push start time to mid-morning from Port Washington north as gusts exceeding 22 knots should start to be felt at Sheboygan lakeshore later this morning along with building waves. Counting on cooler lakeshore waters to prevent stronger gusts from mixing to lake surface farther south today, so wl hold off on expanding Small Craft Advisory south, however will be close and caution is advised. Breezy west to northwest winds will develop late tonight and continue through Tuesday as much cooler air settles over the Great Lakes behind passing cold front. Tight pressure gradient over Lake Michigan as low pressure passes to the north wl result in the gusty winds. Wind gusts will get close to Gale levels on Monday, however confidence in persistent gusts exceeding 33 knots low at this point. If confidence increases, the first Gale Watch of the season may be issued later today for Monday into Monday night. && .MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening for WIZ046-056. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Monday THROUGH Saturday...Collar  FXUS63 KMKX 051559 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1059 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016 .UPDATE... Forecast is on track for today, heading up to mid to upper 60s for highs. Plan on sunny skies and light southwest winds. Expect areas of fog tonight. There is a pretty good chance for dense fog to develop, so we will probably need a dense fog advisory headline by later this evening. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Expect areas of fog to develop tonight. There is a good chance for dense fog, primarily for areas inland from Lake Michigan. && .MARINE... Recent MODIS imagery measuring lake surface temperature in the lower 50s. With inland temperatures expected to climb into the lower to middle 60s, and decreasing boundary layer winds to less than 10 knots, expect a lake breeze to develop late this morning and afternoon over the near shore waters. The winds should switch back to the southwest tonight but back to the south to southeast again on Sunday. Patchy inland fog is expected later tonight which may carry over parts of the nearshore areas by sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2016/ TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is high. High pressure centered over the Ohio valley. Light southwest winds with a weak lake breeze by afternoon. Patchy dense fog early this morning and again Late tonight as winds should be a little lighter. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...High High pressure centered to the east of the state will bring continued pleasant weather Sunday and Monday. Above normal temperatures will persist into early next week. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium Low pressure is progged to drag a cold front through southern Wisconsin Monday night into early Tuesday. Models in general have come in with a bit deeper saturation as the front moves through, so have somewhat higher pops than previously. There are still uncertainties in timing of the front and strength of forcing though, so highest pops are just low end chance for now. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...High High pressure will be overhead Wednesday, briefly give way to a passing trough on Thursday, then return behind the the trough on Friday. Not seeing enough moisture and forcing with the trough to warrant pops, so opted to keep the forecast dry through the second half of the work week. Temps will still be a bit above normal Wed/Thu...but should return to around normal behind the trough on Friday. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Areas of ground fog early this morning with a few localized areas of LIFR, especially in river valleys. MARINE... High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley. Light southwest winds with a weak lake breeze by afternoon. MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz Sunday THROUGH Friday...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 051952 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 255 PM CDT SAT NOV 5 2016 .TONIGHT AND SUNDAY - Forecast Confidence...High. The weather pattern will remain the same through Sunday, so only expect subtle differences to the forecast when compared to the last two days. The high pressure ridge will drift toward southern WI a little more tonight, which means lighter winds just off the surface, which supports a stronger surface inversion and fog development. Based on model visibility and a small dewpoint depression, there is a pretty good chance for dense fog to develop across portions of southern WI, especially inland from Lake Michigan. We may need a dense fog advisory headline by later this evening. .SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - Forecast Confidence...High. A quiet start to the period as a large high pressure ridge continues to slide slowly east, away from the western Great Lakes. Upstream warm air and moisture advection should result in an increase in clouds on Monday. Primarily high clouds are expected so another pleasant day lies ahead with mild temperatures. May be some ground fog late Sunday night and early Monday but stronger boundary layer mixing should keep fog more patchy and visibilities higher. Hence, will hold off on introducing fog into this period. Short term guidance continue to come into better agreement on slightly more amplification to short wave trof passing across the northern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. Southern extension of passing wave will interact with a narrow swath of precipitable water which increases to around 1 inch during the night. Brief period of enhanced synoptic forcing tied to right entrance region over southern WI. Hence enough moisture and lift in place to warrant continuing chance pops for -shra overnight. Mid-level drying returns quickly on brisk northwest winds on Tuesday, but lingering cyclonic flow and low level moisture should result in bkn- ovc cu field returning during the day. .EXTENDED PERIOD... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY - Forecast Confidence...High. Fairly quiet weather can be expected this period with a trend toward colder, more seasonal temperatures by the weekend. Temperatures should remain above the seasonal average Wednesday and Thursday as upper level steering flow remains weakly northwest to zonal as large high pressure area extends from southwest CONUS into the Upper Midwest. Strong piece of short wave energy ejected from eastern Pacific long- wave trof will gain in strength and amplitude as it tracks east across southern Canada early in the extended period. Increasing amplitude will carry this short wave southeast across the GreatLakes Thursday night and Friday...along with accompanying surface cold front. Low to mid-level moisture appears sparse with this passing disturbance. No showers expected at this time. A surge of colder air will follow frontal passage across southern WI on Friday and Friday night. Medium range guidance in agreement for colder air to retreat east with some modification over the weekend. Never the less, looking at a much better chance for more widespread near or slightly below freezing temps Friday night and possibly Saturday night. Looking more likely that cooler, more seasonal conditions will be here to stay beginning the week of the 13th, but still no significant weather systems on the horizon. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...Expect areas of fog to develop tonight. There is a good chance for dense fog, primarily for areas inland from Lake Michigan. && .MARINE...Patchy inland fog is expected later tonight which may drift over to parts of the nearshore areas by sunrise. Recent MODIS imagery is showing lake surface temperatures in the lower 50s. With inland temperatures expected to climb into the upper 60s Sunday, expect a lake breeze to develop late Sun morning and afternoon over the near shore waters. A small craft advisory may be needed on Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. $$ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 071615 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1015 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016 .UPDATE... Deeper moisture arrives around midnight, so expect lower clouds to fill in across southern WI. There could be a few sprinkles with this, as the HRRR and NAMNest models are picking up on some light pre-frontal precip. The main round of rain will hold of until the front arrives from northwest to southeast between 2 am and 5 am. This will be a quick shot for rain and not amount to much. Models are trending a little slower with the arrival of the front. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... South winds ahead of an approaching cold front will gradually increase the moisture today, with the atmosphere saturating tonight. This will result in lower VFR cigs from late evening through early morning out ahead of the front, and then cigs down to IFR along and just behind the cold front that will be moving through southern Wisconsin late tonight. Expect a band of showers with the front. IFR ceilings should persist until around noon Tuesday, and then we can expect gradual improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR before clearing from west to east Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Mostly southerly winds expected today as high pressure remains over the NE CONUS and a cold front approaches from the northern Plains. This cold front is expected to sweep across the near shore waters late tonight and Tuesday morning. Colder air funneling southward over the relatively warmer Lake MI waters will allow wind gusts to likely reach 25 knots Tuesday afternoon and evening. A Small Craft Advisory may be issued this afternoon for this period. Lake surface temperature remains in the 50-55 degree range per recent MODIS imagery. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 141 AM CST Mon Nov 7 2016/ TODAY and TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence is high. A shortwave moving across south central Canada, will drop southeast across the Lake Superior and Wisconsin area early Tuesday morning. Upper level divergence, and 700 mb upward motion begins this afternoon and through the night. 850 mb temperatures cool a just a little today. As a result, expect it to be warm, but temperatures should be a few degrees cooler, especially as high clouds increase, along with a little increase in low level/mid moisture. A cold front moves across southern Wisconsin late tonight, with showers expected near the front. The GFS does not have any elevated CAPE, so will not include any thunderstorm mention in the forecast. Patchy fog mainly in river valleys and low areas, should dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. With a bit more of a gradient, expect a little less fog than yesterday. TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...High The front will be exiting the southeast forecast area Tuesday morning. Models are in decent agreement now with the front timing, putting higher confidence in a few lingering showers early in the day. It should be dry by mid-morning though as high pressure begins to build in behind the departing system. Models are within a couple degrees of each other for high temps, but do differ for the afternoon. The GFS and NAM are quicker with the colder air, showing a cooling trend during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and Canadian hold off on the cooler temps aloft until evening. Generally split the temp differences for the afternoon hours. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...High High pressure will move back in for Wednesday, then briefly give way to a passing trough on Thursday, before returning for the end of the week into the weekend. Still not seeing enough moisture and forcing with the trough to warrant pops, so opted to keep the forecast dry through the weekend. Temps will remain above normal Wed/Thu, but should return to around normal behind the trough Friday and Saturday. Southerly winds between the departing high and an approaching trough should push temps back to a few degrees above normal on Sunday. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Expect patchy IFR/LIFR ground fog, especially in river valleys and low areas. With a little more of a pressure gradient, expect a little less fog, that will dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. South winds ahead of an approaching cold front, will gradually increase the moisture today, with the atmosphere saturating tonight, resulting in lower cigs to IFR near a cold front that will be moving through southern Wisconsin late tonight. Expect a band of showers with the front. MARINE... South to Southwest winds will increase today and tonight with a tightening pressure gradient. A cold front will then push across lake Michigan around sunrise Tuesday. Winds will become north and gusty on Tuesday behind the cold front. North winds/waves will likely reach Small Craft Advisory levels Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 110929 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 329 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is high. Early morning temperatures were in the lower 40s, and we will not recover too much today due to steady cold air advection. Highs will only reach the upper 40s, despite mostly sunny skies. These are actually the normal high temperatures for this time of year. It will be another breezy day, especially this morning. There are strong winds ongoing right now around 500 to 1000 feet above the ground. These winds will mix down to the surface as gusts of 25 to possibly 30 mph starting mid morning. Winds and gusts will be highest through noon and then gradually taper off through the afternoon as high pressure noses into the area. MODIS satellite imagery shows lake surface temperatures around 12C. We need at least an 8C difference between the lake and 850mb to start seeing lake effect clouds, along with a decent fetch. These conditions will be met near southeast WI as winds turn to the north- northeast later this morning. Expect lake effect clouds over far southeast WI to linger through the evening before shifting farther south and dissipating. Tonight will be the coldest night in southern WI so far this season and most areas will see a hard freeze. We are not issuing frost or freeze headlines since we are well past the average time of year to see the first freezing temperatures. High pressure sliding through southwest and south central WI will help to create a strong inversion, calm wind, clear skies, and strong radiational cooling overnight. Lows will drop into the upper 20s for much of southern WI. I wouldn't be surprised to see some mid 20s toward Baraboo, Lone Rock, and areas toward central WI, close to the core of the high and in this dry air mass. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY - Confidence...High Surface high south of WI will continue to shift southeast this period which will result in a sustained mild wsw flow with gradual warming of 850/925 temps. Bufkit column is parched so plenty of sunshine though breezy at times with a decent pressure gradient in place between the departed high and approaching Plains trough. .SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - Confidence...Medium Shortwave trough swings in from the northwest. Surface/850 trough also comes through with very little post frontal cooling. Some bump in 850 dews noted ahead of the surface/850 forcing features though overall column moistening not looking too impressive. If anything the NAM and GFS try to moisten up the low levels suggesting that if anything it would be a drizzle scenario, but overall depth of moisture not supportive of any POPS at this time. Will leave a dry forecast intact for now per Superblend guid. .TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - Confidence...Medium The pattern remains energized with another mid level trough axis swinging across the western Great Lakes region. The ECWMF shows a slightly stronger lead wave than the GFS. Then both show an elongated/sheared vort axis arriving later Tuesday or Tuesday night with the GFS keeping any of this energy more north. The GFS shows a dry scenario while the ECMWF shows shra potential. Will keep the small Superblend POPS to account for the wetter look of the ECMWF. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium Mid level ridge bumps back up across ahead of next trough moving out of the Rockies into the Plains. Surface ridge dominates Wednesday into Wednesday night and then shifts to the east on Thursday which sets up a return flow ahead of the developing Plains low pressure. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Winds are in the 30 to 40 knot range just above the surface early this morning. These winds will be able to mix down to the ground as gusts of 25 to 30 knots by mid morning. Highest gusts will be closest to Lake Michigan. Winds and gusts will gradually taper off during the early afternoon hours as high pressure noses in. Some lower VFR lake effect clouds should move into southeast WI by mid morning as well. There could be some MVFR at times. The main lake effect cloud band is expected to set up over northeast IL and clip southeast WI through early evening. A few sprinkles are possible. Inland areas should see some scattered VFR/MVFR clouds this morning, but full sunshine will return this afternoon. && .MARINE...Small Craft Advisory continues through this evening across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan near southeast WI. Gusty north- northeast winds will build high waves today. Winds will diminish through the afternoon, and waves will subside from north to south this evening. I extended the small craft advisory south of the North Point Light until midnight based on expected lingering higher waves. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens once again across the area. Gusts to 25 knots are possible during this period. Offshore winds should keep high waves over the open waters. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for LMZ645-646. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for LMZ643-644. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar  FXUS63 KMKX 210949 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 349 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Strong push of warm air advection and isentropic omega will sweep across southern WI today. Impressive layer Q-vector convergence of 20 to 30 units passes through the area later this morning through mid-afternoon. However, all short term guidance keep lower levels fairly dry below 5K ft across southwest CWA. Deeper moisture lowers to below 5K ft in the northeast for several hours. Hence wl have chance pops in the NE tapering off to a chance for flurries farther southwest. Thinking strong lift may be able to shake some flurries from mid-clouds that may reach the surface. Forecast soundings show low levels warm 1-3 degrees above freezing through a deep layer. However maximum wet bulb temperature aloft remains several degrees below freezing. With plenty of ice introduction aloft, most of the precip that does reach the ground should be light snow or flurries but could be some snow grains or pellets mixed in. Strong lift moves off to the east late in the afternoon. Cold air advection in wake of passing low pressure system should bring a period of widespread low clouds to the area overnight. A few flurries could get shaken out from these low clouds as well, but not enough confidence to include in forecast package at this point. .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models are in pretty good agreement with high pressure passing by to the south of the area Thursday into Thursday night. This should bring quiet weather to the area during this time. Area forecast soundings were trying to hold onto some of the low clouds from tonight into this period. However, think push of drier air into the area should scour out these low clouds Thursday. Temperatures should be near seasonal normals during this period. Main issue will be precipitation types for Friday into Friday evening, as 500 mb trough slides east through the region. First push of differential cyclonic vorticity advection occurs Friday afternoon, with another Friday evening. Area also sees some modest warm air advection. GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models are showing a fairly broad area of QPF pushing through the region Friday afternoon, with the NAM starting to come on board with this trend. They try to hold onto some QPF Friday evening in the east, before moving out by later Friday night. Thus, increased PoPs to likely Friday afternoon, with chances Friday evening. Leaned toward GFS/ECMWF/Canadian trends, with GFS forecast soundings supporting mainly light snow for most of Friday, before deep saturated air column loses mid to upper level moisture late Friday into Friday evening. This would bring a transition to some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle during this period. Any snow accumulations would be around 1/2 inch at most Friday, with a light glazing possible Friday evening. This period will need to be watched for possible impacts for holiday travel. .SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Main issue this period will be precipitation types with the strong low for Saturday night into Sunday night across the area. A brief period of quiet weather Saturday is expected. Then, GFS/ECMWF/Canadian models show a strong low undergoing cyclogenesis as it shifts from the central high Plains to central Nebraska Christmas Day. It then shifts northeast into central or northern Minnesota Sunday night, before occluding as it shifts across Lake Superior Monday. Thus, some model differences still exist with timing and placement of this strong low. Moist conveyor belt pushes northward into the area on Christmas Day, with plenty of upward vertical motion from focuses warm air advection and low level frontogenesis response. Good differential cyclonic vorticity advection also occurs Sunday night. Cold front then pushes through the area Sunday night or Monday morning. GFS forecast soundings suggest a period of light freezing rain would be possible Saturday night into Christmas morning, before all rain develops by afternoon into Sunday night. Went with this general trend in the forecast for now, until models can get into better agreement with timing and placement of low and related features. Temperatures should be relatively mild for Christmas Day into Monday. This will be another period to watch for holiday travel impacts. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Small chance of light snow later this morning and afternoon across northern and eastern CWA, as strong lift associated with passing low pressure and warm air surge. Lower levels remain fairly dry so kept pops low. Few flurries may get shaken out of mid-clouds farther south. Expect mostly VFR conditions today, but brief period of -sn may lower cigs/vsbys briefly to MVFR. Cold air advection behind passing low pressure will bring a period of lower cigs across srn WI tonight. && .MARINE... Gusty west winds will continue to diminish early this morning as pressure gradient further weakens. Tug located several miles southeast of Sheboygan at 08Z reported sustained winds of 18kts and Racine Reef still reporting wind gusts around 20kts. These off-shore winds will back to the south to southeast ahead of an approaching low pressure trof and restrengthen this afternoon and evening. Recent MODIS imagery showing lake surface temp remaining mostly in the mid-upper 30s. Hi-Res MODIS vsbl imagery from Tuesday also showing small areas of ice build up east of Racine and Wind Point. Expect this ice to thin and melt as winds pick up from the south today along with warmer daytime temps. Low level winds will start to gust to around 25 knots by late afternoon and continue through tonight as low pressure passes by to the north. Hence will post new Small Craft Advisory, beginning late afternoon, and carrying into Thu morning. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Wood  FXUS63 KMKX 230943 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 343 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High. Will delay onset of mostly light snow spreading across southern WI a few hours until late morning and afternoon. Short term guidance remains in good agreement blending of lift from upstream short wave trof and warm air advection, resulting in light snow developing over srn WI later this morning and afternoon. Despite initially warm, above freezing air aloft, elevated maximum wet bulb expected to remain below freezing as precipitation spreads in. Hence low levels will cool as they moisten resulting in mostly snow event, however there could be some snow grains or pellets mixed in at times. Even those areas that will likely see surface temperatures rise into the mid 30s should experience mostly -sn. Still looking at snowfall amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range, with the heaviest amounts across the northwest CWA. Snow ratios will be anywhere from 8 to 12 to 1, with QPF values in the 0.20 to 0.35 inch range. Will delay start times of Winter Weather Advisory by several hours due to slower arrival. Also, will leave area from Rock County northeast to Waukesha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and rest of southeast WI counties out of advisory for now, as amounts in these areas should be mostly less than 2 inches. Also, slightly warmer temperatures may allow a bit more melting of the snow as it falls. Day crew will need to watch these areas for high snowfall rates occuring during the afternoon drive time, as more people likely to be traveling for the long holiday weekend. Lift from passing short wave exits southern WI fairly rapidly during the evening. Loss of ice crystals falling into cloud bearing layer lags lift by several hours so held off on introducing any light freezing rain or drizzle toward the end of the event. .SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Weak high pressure moving east across the area should bring a brief period of quiet weather for Saturday. Lingering low level moisture below the inversion should keep at least some of the low clouds around through the afternoon into Saturday night. Mild temperatures are expected. Models are now in pretty good agreement with the trends with the strong low for Saturday night into Monday. They have the low undergoing cyclogenesis on Christmas Day as it shifts north northeast from the central high Plains into the eastern South Dakota area. The low then shifts into northern Minnesota Sunday night, before the low weakens and moves to north of Lake Superior Monday. Southern Wisconsin continues to see focused warm air advection push through on Christmas Day, along with some low level frontogenesis response fields. It may take some time for the air column to saturate Saturday night into Christmas morning, with no ice crystals. Thus, continued to mention light freezing drizzle in the forecast. Temperatures will warm enough for all rain by the afternoon hours. May see a very light glazing on roads Saturday night into Christmas morning. The strong cold front then shifts northeast through the area Sunday night, as the low occludes. This should continue to bring rain to the area, before ending by 12Z Monday. Kept slight chances for thunder in the south just for Sunday night, when weak elevated CAPE values exist on NAM/GFS forecast soundings. Also kept fog mention for later Saturday night into Christmas Day, with mild temperatures moving over the snow covered ground. .MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Strong downward momentum mixing is expected in the dry slot of this system for later Sunday night into Monday, with a tight pressure gradient. The result should be a period of strong west southwest winds, with sustained winds and gusts approaching Wind Advisory levels. Area forecast soundings support these wind speeds. Certainly a period to watch for possible wind headlines, as this period draws closer. A period of quiet weather looks to be in store for Monday into Wednesday morning, as high pressure slides by to the south of the region. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals, except Tuesday with some cooler temperatures. Models differ quite a bit with the system for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, so will lean on consensus blended PoPs for temperatures and precipitation. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Still expect a period of snow to affect southern WI, spreading in later this morning and diminishing from west to east during the evening. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a time in most areas this aftn and early evening, before lifting. Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times. && .MARINE... Southwest winds will back to the south to southeast this morning, ahead of approaching low pressure trof. Tightening pressure gradient ahead of system will result in increasing winds that will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels today into tonight. However, expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for now. Not enough confidence at this point that warrants posting Small Craft Advisory at this time. Mariners should expect light snow to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-056-057-062-063-067-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for WIZ047-051-052-058-059-064. LM...None. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Wood  FXUS63 KMKX 231643 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1043 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 .UPDATE... An area of 600-700mb frontogenesis, 850-700mb warm air advection, and deep lift due to the 300mb jet circulation is currently over central/northeast Iowa and associated with moderate snow. This forcing will quickly spread n-ne through WI from late this morning through early afternoon. The axis of heavier precip is still on target for bisecting the state sw-ne, highlighted by the winter wx advisory. The latest mesoscale models are showing the area of high reflectivity currently over central IA sliding across southern WI during the late afternoon/evening, coincident with the axis of 700mb frontogenesis, but lagging behind the 600mb frontogenesis affecting more of central WI. This is the feature to watch as it could produce high snowfall rates during the afternoon/evening commute and peak travel time for this holiday weekend. No change to the advisory area. We will highlight the potential for a quick burst of snow between 5 and 8 pm for southeast WI. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Snow will spread into southern WI from west to east late this morning and likely will not start accumulating in MKE and the lakeshore areas until 2 or 3 pm. The radar is showing returns over the south half of WI this morning, but this is not reaching the ground yet. Moderate snow is expected toward central WI, possibly including Madison, but likely north and west of there. This will be from mid afternoon through early evening. A quick burst of snow is now expected across southern WI near the IL border between 2 and 7 pm and southeast WI between 5 and 8 pm including MKE. Expect visibilities down to less than a mile and a quick additional inch of wet snow. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a time most areas this aftn and early evening before lifting. Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times. && .MARINE... Increasing south to southeast winds ahead of an approaching low pressure trof will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later today into tonight. However expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for now. Mariners should expect light snow...possibly mixed with rain...to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. The next storm system to pass far to the northwest of the area on Sunday will bring strong winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Gale force southwest then west winds are possible on Monday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium To High. Will delay onset of mostly light snow spreading across southern WI a few hours until late morning and afternoon. Short term guidance remains in good agreement blending of lift from upstream short wave trof and warm air advection, resulting in light snow developing over srn WI later this morning and afternoon. Despite initially warm, above freezing air aloft, elevated maximum wet bulb expected to remain below freezing as precipitation spreads in. Hence low levels will cool as they moisten resulting in mostly snow event, however there could be some snow grains or pellets mixed in at times. Even those areas that will likely see surface temperatures rise into the mid 30s should experience mostly -sn. Still looking at snowfall amounts mostly in the 1 to 3 inch range, with the heaviest amounts across the northwest CWA. Snow ratios will be anywhere from 8 to 12 to 1, with QPF values in the 0.20 to 0.35 inch range. Will delay start times of Winter Weather Advisory by several hours due to slower arrival. Also, will leave area from Rock County northeast to Waukesha, Milwaukee, Ozaukee and rest of southeast WI counties out of advisory for now, as amounts in these areas should be mostly less than 2 inches. Also, slightly warmer temperatures may allow a bit more melting of the snow as it falls. Day crew will need to watch these areas for high snowfall rates occuring during the afternoon drive time, as more people likely to be traveling for the long holiday weekend. Lift from passing short wave exits southern WI fairly rapidly during the evening. Loss of ice crystals falling into cloud bearing layer lags lift by several hours so held off on introducing any light freezing rain or drizzle toward the end of the event. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Weak high pressure moving east across the area should bring a brief period of quiet weather for Saturday. Lingering low level moisture below the inversion should keep at least some of the low clouds around through the afternoon into Saturday night. Mild temperatures are expected. Models are now in pretty good agreement with the trends with the strong low for Saturday night into Monday. They have the low undergoing cyclogenesis on Christmas Day as it shifts north northeast from the central high Plains into the eastern South Dakota area. The low then shifts into northern Minnesota Sunday night, before the low weakens and moves to north of Lake Superior Monday. Southern Wisconsin continues to see focused warm air advection push through on Christmas Day, along with some low level frontogenesis response fields. It may take some time for the air column to saturate Saturday night into Christmas morning, with no ice crystals. Thus, continued to mention light freezing drizzle in the forecast. Temperatures will warm enough for all rain by the afternoon hours. May see a very light glazing on roads Saturday night into Christmas morning. The strong cold front then shifts northeast through the area Sunday night, as the low occludes. This should continue to bring rain to the area, before ending by 12Z Monday. Kept slight chances for thunder in the south just for Sunday night, when weak elevated CAPE values exist on NAM/GFS forecast soundings. Also kept fog mention for later Saturday night into Christmas Day, with mild temperatures moving over the snow covered ground. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Strong downward momentum mixing is expected in the dry slot of this system for later Sunday night into Monday, with a tight pressure gradient. The result should be a period of strong west southwest winds, with sustained winds and gusts approaching Wind Advisory levels. Area forecast soundings support these wind speeds. Certainly a period to watch for possible wind headlines, as this period draws closer. A period of quiet weather looks to be in store for Monday into Wednesday morning, as high pressure slides by to the south of the region. Temperatures look to remain near seasonal normals, except Tuesday with some cooler temperatures. Models differ quite a bit with the system for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, so will lean on consensus blended PoPs for temperatures and precipitation. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Still expect a period of snow to affect southern WI, spreading in later this morning and diminishing from west to east during the evening. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR and lower for a time in most areas this aftn and early evening, before lifting. Possible some snow grains or pellets mixed with snow at times. MARINE... Southwest winds will back to the south to southeast this morning, ahead of approaching low pressure trof. Tightening pressure gradient ahead of system will result in increasing winds that will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels today into tonight. However, expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for now. Not enough confidence at this point that warrants posting Small Craft Advisory at this time. Mariners should expect light snow to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046- 056-057-062-063-067-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for WIZ047-051-052-058-059-064. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/DAVIS TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Wood  FXUS63 KMKX 232108 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 308 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 TONIGHT... Forecast confidence is medium. An area of 600-700mb frontogenesis, 850-700mb warm air advection, and deep lift due to the 300mb jet circulation is currently along a line from northeast Iowa to Green Bay and is associated with pockets of moderate snow. This axis of heavier precip is in the area highlighted by the winter wx advisory with 2 to 3 inches expected in the MKX area, more toward central WI. The radar returns are showing a more broken/spotty scenario than what I had expected so far in this event. It is taking a long time to saturate from the top down over southern WI, even though periods of snow has made it to the ground here and there. There should still be a period of steadier snow sliding across southern WI during the late afternoon/evening, coincident with the axis of 700mb frontogenesis, but lagging behind the 600mb frontogenesis affecting more of central WI. This is the feature to watch as it could produce moderate snowfall rates during the afternoon/evening commute and peak travel time for this holiday weekend. No change to the advisory area or time. There is still the potential for a quick burst of snow between 5 and 8 pm for southeast WI. Up to an inch of snow would be possible with this feature. SATURDAY...Forecast confidence is high. Low clouds and potentially light fog will linger through Saturday morning. The exception is near Lake Michigan where extra mixing could allow for drier air from the upper levels to clear out the clouds for a time. Low level moisture is expected to get trapped below an inversion, so the clouds should linger all day at inland areas. This will keep temperatures in the lower 30s, warming to just above freezing during the afternoon. .SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...Forecast confidence is high. Nothing has really changed for this period. The powerful low pressure system will still track well northwest of the area, across northern Minnesota. This puts us well into the warm sector, and rain. The initial moisture surge well out ahead of the low could bring a period of freezing drizzle later Saturday night and Sunday morning. This will be pretty light with impact on the minimal side. We then warm up enough to keep it all rain until the associated trough/cold front sweeps late Sunday night/Monday morning. Fog is still a concern with the mild and moist airmass flowing in across the existing snowpack for Saturday night into Sunday, but the brisk winds will limit how dense it gets. There is little or no elevated CAPE on the soundings, so decided to pull the mention of thunder. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. High pressure should keep this period quiet. Temperatures will fall in the wake of the departing low...but not too cold. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s, rising back into the lower 30s on Wednesday. With the warmer temperatures on Wednesday the European model does bring a surge of moisture and a small chance of light snow to the area during the afternoon. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. The European model is a bit snowier looking than the GFS and the Canadian for Wednesday night into early Thursday. They all have a trough swinging through the Great Lakes, but the EC is a bit deeper, more west and quicker with the returning moisture and clips Wisconsin with snow before pushing quickly off to the east. The GFS and Canadian keep the bulk of the snow east of Wisconsin during the period. Given the uncertainty, there are small chances of light snow during this period, but overall it looks pretty quiet. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... Moderate snow is ongoing over central WI, with the main area setting up north and west of Madison. The back edge of the precip is over eastern Iowa and this will translate east across southern WI with stronger 700mb frontogenesis. Expect a period of steadier snow between 4 and 7 pm in south central WI and 5 to 8 pm in southeast WI. Visibilities should be down to less than a mile and a quick additional inch of wet snow is possible. Snow will taper off from west to east by midnight. Expect cigs and vsbys to lower to IFR or lower during any steady, moderate snow late this aftn and early evening. It looks like ceilings are going to remain low overnight into Saturday morning due to light winds and lingering low level moisture. Patchy fog is likely which could be IFR visibility, but confidence is low on coverage. && .MARINE... Increasing south to southeast winds ahead of an approaching low pressure trof will get close to Small Craft Advisory levels later this evening. However expecting most gusts to remain at or below 22kts for now. Mariners can expect light snow...possibly mixed with rain...to spread into the area during the afternoon, ending later tonight. Recent MODIS lake surface temperature image continues to show temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Hi res vsbl image from Thursday not showing much ice buildup along the shore. The next storm system to pass far to the northwest of the area on Sunday will bring strong winds from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Gale force southwest then west gusts are possible on Monday. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046- 056-057-062-063-067-068. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight CST tonight for WIZ047- 051-052-058-059-064. LM...None. && $$ TONIGHT/Saturday AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday...Davis  FXUS63 KMKX 082113 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 313 PM CST Sun Jan 8 2017 .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence Is High. A trough will approach the forecast area this evening, and then move through overnight. Will probably see radar returns this evening, as warm advection increases ahead of the trough, but seeing quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels per models soundings. Thus, not expecting much if any of this first round to hit the ground. Better chance for snow will come late evening into tonight, as deeper saturation occurs. Not much liquid with this snow, but a cold airmass and fairly deep dendrite growth zone should result in pretty high snow to liquid ratios. New forecast has anywhere from a trace in the southwest forecast area, to around a half an inch in the north. Temps will likely warm slightly this evening ahead of the trough, then hold fairly steady overnight as the system moves through. It will be dry Monday morning between systems, with more snow moving in during the afternoon. Should see some light accumulations by evening, especially in the northwest forecast area. High temps tomorrow are finally expected to be back around normal. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models are trying to focus the best QPF across central Wisconsin Monday evening, with a push of drier air from the south trying to dry things out across southwestern portions of the area. Focused warm air advection pushes into the area during this time, lingering into Tuesday morning before the cold front moves east through the area. Models taking surface low track from southern Minnesota to the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan later Monday night into Tuesday morning, then pushing northeast of there Tuesday afternoon. There is not much in the way of frontogenesis response with this system. 500 mb shortwave trough does cross east through area later on Tuesday. However, strong cold air advection kicks in behind the cold frontal passage, drying things out. Forecast soundings are generally showing light snow for most of Monday night, with a period of a mix of light snow, light sleet, light freezing rain and light rain south to north late Monday night into middle morning Tuesday. All light rain is then expected for the rest of Tuesday morning, with PoPs trending downward quickly in the afternoon with the drier air working in. NAM keeps things cold into Tuesday, though is an outlier and sided with the warmer look of the other models. Continued likely PoPs for Monday evening in the north, then for most of the area later Monday night into Tuesday morning. May need higher PoPs if models remain consistent. Snowfall amounts should range from under an inch in the south, to around 1 inch in Madison and Milwaukee, to 2 to 3 inches toward Fond du lac and Sheboygan. May need a winter weather headline eventually for parts of the area for Monday night into Tuesday morning, as it will affect the Tuesday morning commute. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Models are showing a generally quiet period for Tuesday night, with some differences for Wednesday. Another cold front should slide southeast through the area later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The Canadian model is the only one with QPF with the front, but kept the dry forecast, following the other models. Main issue will be another round of precipitation for Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS and Canadian models are bringing low pressure northeast across northeast Illinois into lower Michigan. Decent low level frontogenesis response occurs across the area on the GFS. Area forecast soundings from the GFS are showing potential for a freezing rain event for the area, with some light snow mixing in across the north Wednesday evening. The ECMWF is quicker with the movement of the low and associated upward vertical motion. For now, left higher PoPs in there for Wednesday night, tapering off on Thursday. Left precipitation types as light snow for collaboration purposes at this time, but may have to add in freezing rain in later forecasts. This would impact the Thursday morning commute. High pressure would then bring another shot of Arctic air for Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR conditions will prevail into this evening, as high pressure exits and a trough of low pressure approaches. Most places will probably see a little snow late this evening and into tonight, as the trough moves through. Accumulations are expected to range from a dusting to a half inch or so. This will be a very dry snow, with snow to liquid ratios of at least 20:1. Will probably see some lower ceilings and visibilities as the snow moves through. Dry weather is then expected Monday morning, as there will be a brief break between systems. Snow will then move back in during the afternoon, with more light accumulations likely into the evening and overnight. It still looks like a period of low level wind shear is possible this evening into tonight, while the low level jet moves through ahead of the trough. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this evening and overnight, as south to southwest winds become gusty ahead of an approaching trough. Winds will likely return to advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday night, as low pressure passes through the region. New MODIS image shows a decent amount of ice south of Milwaukee, so expect limited waves in these areas until there is a change in the ice. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...Wood  FXUS63 KMKX 090953 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 353 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium. Steady light snow over eastern CWA will continue to diminish through 12z as 700mb warm air advection shifts off to the east. Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to weak sfc trof so may be some flurries lingering into the early morning around the area. Some areas received a couple tenths of an inch of snow overnight so roadways may be slippery early this morning, especially toward Fond du Lac, West Bend and Sheboygan. Weak high pressure will result in generally quiet conditions for a brief time this morning. However another batch of -sn should spread into southern WI this aftn as another surge of low to mid level warm air advection spreads rapidly across the area. Short term guidance in good agreement on this light snow producing less than an inch of snow accumulation by 00z with the heavier amounts in south central WI. This warm air advection pivots northeast into central WI during the evening with a lull in the light snow across the south. However expect areas of precip to redevelop later tonight as renewed surge of low level warm air and moisture advection spreads into srn WI along with enhanced synoptic lift from left exit region of upper jet. Hence wl continue likely wording for later tonight. Warm air push will result in a wintery mix with a potential for a period of -zr later tngt into Tue mrng. Concerned that pavement temps wl lag several hours behind 2M temps in warming above freezing since the arctic cold has persisted over the area for days now. ECMWF and GFS warm sfc temps rapidly late tngt and early Tue while NAM holds onto colder temps around freezing until 14-15z. May eventually need a Winter Weather Advisory to address potential for mix and slippery travel during the Tue mrng commute but too much uncertainty regarding sfc temps to issue at this time. Will however post SPS to add emphasis to concern for Tuesday. .TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. A low amplitude impulse will progress through the northern Plains Tuesday morning before emerging in the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday night. The upper level wave will escort a deepening surface low as it tracks northeast through the region. Southern Wisconsin will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with temperatures already near or above freezing by mid morning. This should limit any mixed precipitation to our northern areas at this time, with all rain expected by afternoon within the warm advection regime. Precipitation amounts should be on the light side through the afternoon, with less than one quarter inch expected. The associated cold front should sweep through southern Wisconsin by mid to late afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation by evening. We could see a brief period of mixed precipitation or snow through early evening as temperatures fall, but impacts should be minimal given the limited QPF. .WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Models project the upper jet core to begin lifting north of the area Wednesday morning, with a weak impulse passing through during the early afternoon. It appears that any precipitation associated with this wave should remain north of our forecast area. Upper troughing will advance from the northern Rockies on Wednesday and into the upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. Southern stream energy will eject northeast from the central Plains, before phasing with the larger scale wave over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. This will initiate an elongated surface wave from the Great Plains through the mid Mississippi valley on Wednesday, with a tendency for northeastward expansion into the northern Ohio valley on Thursday. As the surface wave develops to our south, light precipitation is expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday. There is some concern for freezing rain with this system, particularly in our southeast. Given the consensus surface low track and timing (which could change), there should be sufficient warm advection for warm layer temperatures to climb to around +3 to +5 Celsius for a time Thursday night in the southeast. This suggests a relatively deep warm layer, capable of fully melting any frozen precipitation before it's passed along to a subfreezing surface layer. GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Kenosha also illustrate a freezing rain profile during this time. Forecast QPF is on the light side, with most areas receiving less than one quarter of an inch of liquid. This would limit ice accretion to under one tenth of an inch, given the current consensus of models solution. Stay tuned, as this may be a period to watch for potential travel impacts, depending upon how the forecast evolves. .FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Arctic high pressure arrives for Friday, with below normal temperatures returning. The cold should be short lived, however, with moderating temperatures into the weekend. Low pressure will bring another chance for precipitation on Sunday and/or Monday. Temperatures appear cold enough for this precipitation to be in the form of snow. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Area of steady light snow will continue to diminish over eastern CWA through 12Z as 700mb warm air advection slides off to the east. Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to upstream weak surface trof so a few flurries may stick around into the early morning. CIGS mostly VFR but may briefly drop to MVFR for an hour or two this morning. Otherwise, areas of -sn will return this afternoon and early evening with another period of lower cigs. More widespread lower cigs are expected later tonight into Tuesday along with a potential light wintery mix. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 12z this morning. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue next several hours until pressure gradient further weakens as weak surface low pressure trof approaches. Period of lighter winds expected to be brief however as stronger low pressure will develop in the high plains later today and move ENE into WI on Tuesday. Pressure gradient between this system and east coast high pressure will result in gusty south winds redeveloping late today and continuing through tonight. An extended period of gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night as the low deepens as it moves northeast from WI into srn Canada Tue ngt. Will likely reissue a Small Craft Advisory later this morning once ongoing advisory expires. Hi res MODIS visible imagery showing ice regrowth over near shore waters from Milwaukee county south to Winthrop Harbor and beyond due to lighter winds on Sunday and continued cold temps. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning for LMZ643>646. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...SPM  FXUS63 KMKX 091622 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1022 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017 .UPDATE... Snow is still expected to lift through the forecast area southwest to northeast this afternoon into the evening. Forecast timing seems to be in line with current trends. Will see a trace to half an inch by evening...with additional light accumulations through the evening and into tonight. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Snow will arrive in the southwest this afternoon...lifting northeast through late afternoon into the evening. Some light precipitation will then linger tonight...with better development again late tonight into Tuesday. Precip should remain mainly snow through much of the night, but milder air will move in later tonight into Tue morning. Still think there could be a brief mix with or changeover to sleet and freezing rain before the precip becomes all rain. Total snow is forecast to range from around a trace far southwest forecast area...to around 3 inches in the far northeast. Colder temps will return later Tuesday and Tuesday night, though most of the precip will have ended by then. Lower ceilings and visibilities are likely at times with the precipitation through Tuesday. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tonight into Tuesday night. Low pressure will develop in the high plains later today, and move east northeast into northern Wisconsin and Lake Superior on Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient with the low will result in gusty south winds redeveloping later today and continuing through tonight. An extended period of gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night, as the low deepens as it moves northeast into southern Canada Tuesday night. Building waves are expected tonight into Tuesday toward the open waters, in ice free areas. High resolution MODIS visible imagery continue to show ice regrowth over near shore waters from around North Point Lighthouse south to Winthrop Harbor and beyond. This may get broken up a bit with the increasing winds and waves tonight into Tuesday night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 615 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ UPDATE...Steady light snow has moved east of southeast Wisconsin and ended with only a few lingering flurries. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Borderline low level wind shear scenario tonight but did not include in 12z TAF issuance due to increasing surface winds. MARINE...Issued new Small Craft Advisory to cover expected gusty south winds that will develop late this afternoon and tonight as low pressure strengthens in the High Plains. A few gusts likely to reach 30 knots. The gusty winds will linger into Tuesday night as the low pressure area strengthens and moves across the western Great Lakes into Canada. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/ TONIGHT AND MONDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium. Steady light snow over eastern CWA will continue to diminish through 12z as 700mb warm air advection shifts off to the east. Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to weak sfc trof so may be some flurries lingering into the early morning around the area. Some areas received a couple tenths of an inch of snow overnight so roadways may be slippery early this morning, especially toward Fond du Lac, West Bend and Sheboygan. Weak high pressure will result in generally quiet conditions for a brief time this morning. However another batch of -sn should spread into southern WI this aftn as another surge of low to mid level warm air advection spreads rapidly across the area. Short term guidance in good agreement on this light snow producing less than an inch of snow accumulation by 00z with the heavier amounts in south central WI. This warm air advection pivots northeast into central WI during the evening with a lull in the light snow across the south. However expect areas of precip to redevelop later tonight as renewed surge of low level warm air and moisture advection spreads into srn WI along with enhanced synoptic lift from left exit region of upper jet. Hence wl continue likely wording for later tonight. Warm air push will result in a wintery mix with a potential for a period of -zr later tngt into Tue mrng. Concerned that pavement temps wl lag several hours behind 2M temps in warming above freezing since the arctic cold has persisted over the area for days now. ECMWF and GFS warm sfc temps rapidly late tngt and early Tue while NAM holds onto colder temps around freezing until 14-15z. May eventually need a Winter Weather Advisory to address potential for mix and slippery travel during the Tue mrng commute but too much uncertainty regarding sfc temps to issue at this time. Will however post SPS to add emphasis to concern for Tuesday. TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. A low amplitude impulse will progress through the northern Plains Tuesday morning before emerging in the upper Great Lakes region Tuesday night. The upper level wave will escort a deepening surface low as it tracks northeast through the region. Southern Wisconsin will be within the warm sector on Tuesday, with temperatures already near or above freezing by mid morning. This should limit any mixed precipitation to our northern areas at this time, with all rain expected by afternoon within the warm advection regime. Precipitation amounts should be on the light side through the afternoon, with less than one quarter inch expected. The associated cold front should sweep through southern Wisconsin by mid to late afternoon, bringing an end to the precipitation by evening. We could see a brief period of mixed precipitation or snow through early evening as temperatures fall, but impacts should be minimal given the limited QPF. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Models project the upper jet core to begin lifting north of the area Wednesday morning, with a weak impulse passing through during the early afternoon. It appears that any precipitation associated with this wave should remain north of our forecast area. Upper troughing will advance from the northern Rockies on Wednesday and into the upper Mississippi valley on Thursday. Southern stream energy will eject northeast from the central Plains, before phasing with the larger scale wave over the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. This will initiate an elongated surface wave from the Great Plains through the mid Mississippi valley on Wednesday, with a tendency for northeastward expansion into the northern Ohio valley on Thursday. As the surface wave develops to our south, light precipitation is expected to begin Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday. There is some concern for freezing rain with this system, particularly in our southeast. Given the consensus surface low track and timing (which could change), there should be sufficient warm advection for warm layer temperatures to climb to around +3 to +5 Celsius for a time Thursday night in the southeast. This suggests a relatively deep warm layer, capable of fully melting any frozen precipitation before it's passed along to a subfreezing surface layer. GFS and NAM forecast soundings for Kenosha also illustrate a freezing rain profile during this time. Forecast QPF is on the light side, with most areas receiving less than one quarter of an inch of liquid. This would limit ice accretion to under one tenth of an inch, given the current consensus of models solution. Stay tuned, as this may be a period to watch for potential travel impacts, depending upon how the forecast evolves. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Arctic high pressure arrives for Friday, with below normal temperatures returning. The cold should be short lived, however, with moderating temperatures into the weekend. Low pressure will bring another chance for precipitation on Sunday and/or Monday. Temperatures appear cold enough for this precipitation to be in the form of snow. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Area of steady light snow will continue to diminish over eastern CWA through 12Z as 700mb warm air advection slides off to the east. Seeing some lighter returns upstream around La Crosse closer to upstream weak surface trof so a few flurries may stick around into the early morning. CIGS mostly VFR but may briefly drop to MVFR for an hour or two this morning. Otherwise, areas of -sn will return this afternoon and early evening with another period of lower cigs. More widespread lower cigs are expected later tonight into Tuesday along with a potential light wintery mix. MARINE... Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until 12z this morning. Gusty south to southwest winds will continue next several hours until pressure gradient further weakens as weak surface low pressure trof approaches. Period of lighter winds expected to be brief however as stronger low pressure will develop in the high plains later today and move ENE into WI on Tuesday. Pressure gradient between this system and east coast high pressure will result in gusty south winds redeveloping late today and continuing through tonight. An extended period of gusty winds is then expected through Tuesday night as the low deepens as it moves northeast from WI into srn Canada Tue ngt. Will likely reissue a Small Craft Advisory later this morning once ongoing advisory expires. Hi res MODIS visible imagery showing ice regrowth over near shore waters from Milwaukee county south to Winthrop Harbor and beyond due to lighter winds on Sunday and continued cold temps. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Wednesday for LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...DDV/Wood TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...SPM  FXUS63 KMKX 200826 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 326 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High. 700H warm air advection which triggered strong storms over northeast CWA Sunday evening has since pushed well to the east of the area. Focus is now on low level warm air advection associated with 850H jet. However LLJ has been focused across eastern IA and northern IL where numerous thunderstorms are currently located. This activity is tracking ESE and should continue through the early morning. However wl carry small pops in far south through the early morning as elevated instability lingers across northern IL as low level trof axis passes through. Latest IR imagery shows mid-level clouds progressing steadily eastward last several hours with only high clouds over most of the area. Not seeing much stratus developing near inverted trof/front at this time, but could still develop as it progresses eastward across srn WI this morning. Bit more low level moisture drawn into the low levels from storms to the south could help low clouds form for a time as well. Otherwise, expect a milder day but can't get too excited due to the bkn-ovc cloud cover expected much of the day and light winds becoming NE. Also, weak upstream 700H short wave over Dakotas weakens as it progresses ESE but may bring a few light showers to northern CWA later this afternoon, along with more mid- level cloudiness. Increasing northeast winds will also cause lakeshore areas to cool during the afternoon and evening as lake surface temps are mostly in the 35 to 40 degree range. Benign conditions to continue tonight with slightly colder temps. .LONG TERM... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. A cold front will drop through WI Tuesday in response to a shortwave trough and surface low crossing Lake Superior. Gusty north-northeast winds will accelerate down Lake Michigan faster than on land. Lake temperatures are running 35-37F/2-3C range. 850mb temps are expected to be in the -9 to -11C range and falling. The difference is right in that preferred range for lake effect snow showers. Thus, added a mention of flurries for now and increased sky cover significantly when the anticipated lake band(s) affect southeast WI (late Tue afternoon through overnight. Will continue to watch for potential of measurable snow. Wednesday should be a cold and clear day, with the exception of some lake effect clouds due to easterly winds. Highs are expected in the 30s near the lakeshore and around 40 well inland. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. Southerly winds with return flow around the high will usher moisture back into southern WI by Thu evening. A weak shortwave could bring light precip (snow) to northern WI late Wed night, but this should miss southern WI or just give us flurries. Warm frontal precip is expected to arrive late Thu afternoon or evening. Models are coming into better agreement now. The strong warm air advection should allow for this precip to be in the form of rain across southern WI. Went with non-diurnal temp trend Thu night. The weather pattern favors thunderstorms over the Midwest ahead of this mid level trough over the Plains. There is a small chance for thunder Thu night with the warm front, but probably a better chance Friday along the cold front. Too early and uncertain to discuss severe potential for southern WI. Models diverge for Saturday. WI weather will depend on where the closed upper low tracks. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... Forecast confidence is medium. It looks like a very active weather pattern for next week with a series of shortwave troughs tracking into the Midwest from the Plains. Temperatures appear warm enough for all rain. && .AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Skies are clearing across south central WI although believe clouds at 3-4 kft will remain most of the night and Mon AM near the IL border. Slight chances of showers and tstorms will continue tonight into Mon AM especially near the IL border. A weak cold front will pass Mon AM and moisture within the frontal zone may lead to MVFR Vsbys around sunrise. Partly cloudy skies are likely for much of Mon with mid level clouds possibly increasing for late afternoon and evening. LLWS may be possible into the early overnight via a swly 35-40 kt LLJ. && .MARINE... Gusts to 22 knots reported at SGNW3 at 07z. Thinking this may be related to outflow from earlier convection so expect winds to settle down early. Light onshore flow wl turn to the north to northeast this afternoon after cold frontal passage. Gusts with these winds may get close to Small Craft levels. Recent MODIS imagery estimates lake surface temps in the mid to upper 30s. With mild air remaining aloft, hoping that low level inversion wl prevent stronger wind gusts from reaching lake surface. In addition, GFS showing weaker winds in the low levels compared to NAM and RAP. This is a weak excuse however as NAM/RAP solutions typically better in forecasting gusts over near shore waters. Due to low level inversion and model discrepancy, wl hold off on issuing Small Craft for now. Better chance for stronger wind gusts Tuesday night into Wednesday as much colder air sags south across the Great Lakes. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Tuesday through Sunday...Cronce  FXUS63 KMKX 011449 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 949 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017 .UPDATE...Near perfect day setting up over southern Wisconsin with light winds, low humidity and temperatures rising into the 70s. 925H temps favor temps rising into the mid to upper 70s, with a few western locations cracking 80. Developing lake breeze will keep lakeshore locations hovering in the mid 60s to low 70s much of the afternoon. && .MARINE...Light and variable winds over the nearshore waters will be turning onshore in the next 1-3 hours as lake breeze develops. Light pressure gradient due to nearby high pressure will result in wind speeds remaining mostly less than 10 knots. Latest MODIS imagery shows Lake Michigan surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s to lower 50s in the near shore waters as well as to mid-lake. Average Lake Michigan surface water temperature running close to the long-term average for June 1st. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 643 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017) UPDATE... AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for today and tonight. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 1 2017) SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High. High pressure will prevail over the western Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley. Full sunshine will yield high temps in the upper 70s well away from Lake MI. A lake breeze will develop by late morning. Lows tnt in the 50s. LONG TERM... Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is medium to high: After a short run of mostly sunny skies and dry weather, an active pattern will set up for the end of the week and weekend. Expect increasing shower/storm chances Friday into Saturday as low pressure approaches. The low is then progged to move through Sat night. There will be a pretty good moisture surge Friday night and again Saturday as the low approaches, with precipitable water values up around 1.5 inches and dewpoints as high as the mid/upper 60s. Could see a couple storms reach severe levels Fri night and Saturday, with SPC highlighting a Marginal Risk across much of the forecast area both Fri and Sat. Wind flow and shear not that impressive, but plenty of instability. It looks drier Sunday, though a shortwave rotating through on the back side of the upper low may kick of a few showers/storms. Models have come into better agreement with a warmer pattern Fri through the weekend. Expect above normal temps each day, though clouds and precip could throw a wrench in things on Saturday. If there is a break in the action, Saturday has the potential to be the warmest day, with highs in the 80 to 85 range. Monday through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is medium: Could see a shower or two Monday as another weak wave rotates through the backside of the broad cyclonic flow centered to the east. High pressure is then expected to bring dry weather for Tue/Wed. Temps look like they will be within a few degrees of normal for the first half of next week. AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions for today and tonight. MARINE... Light winds and low wave heights for today and Fri. Lake breezes will occur each day. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update/Marine...MBK Today/Tonight and Aviation...MG Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 031528 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1028 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 .UPDATE... Area of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the far southern counties should continue to gradually shift to the southeast of the Illinois border by early this afternoon. These were being driven by some low level frontogenesis and weak 925 mb to 850 mb convergence. In addition, some fog may affect areas along the lakeshore from south of Sheboygan to around downtown Milwaukee until early afternoon. Some diurnal cumulus clouds should develop by the afternoon, with pleasant summer temperatures. Onshore winds will keep lakeshore areas cooler than normal. Wood && .MARINE... Areas of fog will linger until early this afternoon across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan, mainly between Sheboygan and McKinley Marina in Milwaukee. Latest visible satellite imagery continues to show the fog across these areas, with a slow decreasing trend. This area has cool lake surface temperatures in the upper 40s from the most recent MODIS satellite imagery, which combined with dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s is allowing the fog to form. Onshore winds into the afternoon should bring some downwelling conditions, and allow lake temperatures to warm. This should help the fog dissipate. Wood && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 636 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) AVIATION(12Z TAFS)... Isolated showers and t-storms will continue to affect far southern WI through the morning, but should end by late morning or early afternoon as instability axis continues to shift farther south. Patchy fog will linger several more hours near Lake Michigan in parts of Ozaukee and Sheboygan counties before dissipating. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 305 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) DISCUSSION... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High. Drier, more stable air continues to slowly settle southward across southern WI. However there remains a weak instability axis over the far south, where MUCape is around 500 j/kg. Isolated showers and t- storms have been moving along Cape gradient toward southwest WI from south of Decorah IA last several hours. Possible this isolated activity may carry into the Darlington, Mineral Point and Monroe areas into the early morning. Eventually instability axis and deeper column moisture will settle farther south into northern IL by late morning or early afternoon. However an isolated early afternoon t-storm may brush far southern Lafayette or Green Counties. Otherwise, dry and less humid conditions are expected as weak high pressure builds into the western Great Lakes. Light winds and high low level moisture has allowed patchy fog to develop over parts of northern and eastern CWA where skies have been more clear to partly cloudy. Several observations reporting 3-5 miles in light fog while KSBM has fallen to 1/2 mile. However nearby webcams show thicker fog remains quite patchy in the Sheboygan area. Hence wl stick with patchy fog wording through the early morning. Light winds expected again tonight but a bit more mixing expected just above shallow inversion. With potential of high clouds returning tonight, will hold off on adding fog mention for tonight. Tuesday - Confidence...Medium Mid level ridging combined with a lower level anticyclone will likely keep things dry. Bufkit soundings from both the NAM and GFS show a decent amount of drier air in the lower levels with little in the way of MUCAPE. The better return flow remains to our west and though 850 dew points nudge up a bit into the southwest cwa where a southerly flow picks up a bit more there. Tuesday night and Wednesday - Confidence...Medium A 500 millibar shortwave will approach the area Tuesday night with some increase in DCVA and an eastward translation of better 850 moisture advection. The 00z GFS did scale things back precip-wise from the prior 18z run and now actually holds things back quite a bit during the overnight hours. The ECMWF is a compromise between the more robust GEM solution and the slower GFS. Better consensus between the GFS and ECMWF for SHRA/TSRA to overspread the area on Wednesday as the 500 millibar shortwave enhances forcing across the area. Thursday - Confidence...Medium The 500 millibar trough axis shifts east of srn WI with a northwest flow taking hold. The progs show an increase WAA from the west with the GFS showing additional precip development ahead of low pressure and a cold front approaching from the northwest. The ECMWF and GEM keep it dry in the afternoon with just lingering morning chances associated with the exiting wave. Thursday night and Friday - Confidence...Medium A cold front is proggd to drop into the area with some SHRA/TSRA expected. The GEM is the only dry model for area keeping this precip to our north. the ECMWF has better precip coverage on Friday morning versus the GFS which has the better potential Thursday night. By Friday afternoon 850 cool advection gets underway and this is more pronounced on the GFS. Saturday and Sunday - Confidence...Medium Surface/850 high pressure dominates this period with lingering low level thermal trough in place. High drifts east on Sunday with winds turning more to the southwest. AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...Patchy MVFR cigs floating around far southwest CWA last several hours, however expect these lower cigs to erode or lift to VFR as drier air continues to settle into southern WI. Can not rule out an isolated shower or t-storm into the early morning over the far south as well. Patchy fog will also lower visibilities for a few hours in the north and east until 12z or so this morning. Visibilities may drop to less than 1 mile for an hour or two. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to persist for much of the forecast period. MARINE...Onshore winds are now expected for the next several days, at least into Wednesday. Wind speeds will remain lighter as well. Next chance for more widespread showers and storms will be Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update...Wood Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Tuesday THROUGH Sunday...Collar  FXUS63 KMKX 031956 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 .TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Area of showers and thunderstorms over east central Iowa into northern Illinois will remain in that area into this evening. Area of fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should remain clear into this evening. Diurnal cumulus clouds will gradually dissipate early this evening. There may be a few middle to high clouds overnight, but most of the night should be clear. Light winds should allow for a relatively cool night, with lows in the middle 50s in most areas. It should be a little warmer near the lakeshore. High pressure will continue to slowly slide east of Lake Superior into Tuesday. The high will bring dry easterly flow and bring a pleasant day. Mild temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected inland, with onshore winds keeping lower to middle 70s near Lake Michigan. .TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Shortwave energy will carve out a closed mid-level cyclone over the lower Missouri valley on Tuesday. Models then project the closed circulation to lift northeast on Wednesday, as moisture from this system combines with that of a northern stream wave approaching the western Great Lakes. Thereafter, look for the low to devolve to an open-wave trough as it swings east into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be in control Tuesday evening, with dry southeasterly flow preventing much intrusion of low-level moisture into southern Wisconsin. This should keep us high and dry for the evening's fireworks displays, with pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover will be increasing however, especially from around Madison west. The surface high shifts east on Wednesday, allowing deeper moisture to spread into western portions of our area. Column integrated precipitable water values climb to around 1.6 inches by afternoon, with dewpoints nearing 70 degrees west of Madison. Several model solutions keep a west to east oriented dewpoint/low-level moisture gradient in place through the afternoon and evening, suggesting we may still be battling the high's residual influence. The best focused moisture transport remains to our northwest (closer to the mid-level wave) and south (near the deep layer low), but we do see some slight increase by late afternoon, as warm cloud depths thicken to around 3.5 km. Aforementioned moisture combined with diabatic heating should lead to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model forecast soundings suggest anywhere from 500 to 1200 J/kg of MLCAPE is possible in our west, but our instability will ultimately hinge on a) the amount of heating we receive, and b) the speed and quality of our boundary layer moisture recovery. Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer appears somewhat meager, with magnitudes on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 thunderstorm outlook places our western areas in a marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this seems prudent, with a few storms possibly producing gusty winds and/or hail. Another shortwave drops down from the northwest on Thursday afternoon and evening. The 03.12z deterministic GFS solution is both stronger and deeper with the wave as compared to the 03.12z Canadian and 03.00z ECMWF solutions. Both the GFS and Canadian solutions bring shower/thunderstorm chances into southern Wisconsin from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, while the ECMWF keeps us dry. Will defer to the consensus PoPs during this time given the uncertainty. Temperatures during this period will be seasonal, with cooler readings in the east due to periods of onshore flow. .FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Most of the global models build high pressure into our area from the northwest on Friday, with the 03.00z ECMWF being the lone outlier. Its solution would keep the shower/thunderstorm chances going into early Friday afternoon. For now, will stick with the dry consensus. High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures should prevail for the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possibly returning for Sunday night and/or Monday. && .AVIATION(21Z TAFS)... Any shower/storm activity will remain south of the Illinois border into this evening. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening. Light northeast to east winds are expected into tonight. The fog over the lake east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and should remain fog free into this evening. High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should remain fog free into this evening. Lake surface temperatures via the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any redevelopment of fog. Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM  FXUS63 KMKX 040209 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 909 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017 .UPDATE... .AVIATION (03Z TAFS) VFR condition expected, except for IFR early morning fog mainly in the Wisconsin River valley. High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday. && .MARINE... Lake surface temperatures via the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any redevelopment of fog. Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2017) TONIGHT AND INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence is Medium. Area of showers and thunderstorms over east central Iowa into northern Illinois will remain in that area into this evening. Area of fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should remain clear into this evening. Diurnal cumulus clouds will gradually dissipate early this evening. There may be a few middle to high clouds overnight, but most of the night should be clear. Light winds should allow for a relatively cool night, with lows in the middle 50s in most areas. It should be a little warmer near the lakeshore. High pressure will continue to slowly slide east of Lake Superior into Tuesday. The high will bring dry easterly flow and bring a pleasant day. Mild temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected inland, with onshore winds keeping lower to middle 70s near Lake Michigan. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Shortwave energy will carve out a closed mid-level cyclone over the lower Missouri valley on Tuesday. Models then project the closed circulation to lift northeast on Wednesday, as moisture from this system combines with that of a northern stream wave approaching the western Great Lakes. Thereafter, look for the low to devolve to an open-wave trough as it swings east into the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Thursday. Surface high pressure will be in control Tuesday evening, with dry southeasterly flow preventing much intrusion of low-level moisture into southern Wisconsin. This should keep us high and dry for the evening's fireworks displays, with pleasant temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Cloud cover will be increasing however, especially from around Madison west. The surface high shifts east on Wednesday, allowing deeper moisture to spread into western portions of our area. Column integrated precipitable water values climb to around 1.6 inches by afternoon, with dewpoints nearing 70 degrees west of Madison. Several model solutions keep a west to east oriented dewpoint/low-level moisture gradient in place through the afternoon and evening, suggesting we may still be battling the high's residual influence. The best focused moisture transport remains to our northwest (closer to the mid-level wave) and south (near the deep layer low), but we do see some slight increase by late afternoon, as warm cloud depths thicken to around 3.5 km. Aforementioned moisture combined with diabatic heating should lead to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model forecast soundings suggest anywhere from 500 to 1200 J/kg of MLCAPE is possible in our west, but our instability will ultimately hinge on a) the amount of heating we receive, and b) the speed and quality of our boundary layer moisture recovery. Deep layer shear in the 0-6 km layer appears somewhat meager, with magnitudes on the order of 20 to 25 knots. The Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 thunderstorm outlook places our western areas in a marginal risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and this seems prudent, with a few storms possibly producing gusty winds and/or hail. Another shortwave drops down from the northwest on Thursday afternoon and evening. The 03.12z deterministic GFS solution is both stronger and deeper with the wave as compared to the 03.12z Canadian and 03.00z ECMWF solutions. Both the GFS and Canadian solutions bring shower/thunderstorm chances into southern Wisconsin from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, while the ECMWF keeps us dry. Will defer to the consensus PoPs during this time given the uncertainty. Temperatures during this period will be seasonal, with cooler readings in the east due to periods of onshore flow. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Most of the global models build high pressure into our area from the northwest on Friday, with the 03.00z ECMWF being the lone outlier. Its solution would keep the shower/thunderstorm chances going into early Friday afternoon. For now, will stick with the dry consensus. High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures should prevail for the weekend, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms possibly returning for Sunday night and/or Monday. AVIATION(21Z TAFS)... Any shower/storm activity will remain south of the Illinois border into this evening. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds should dissipate early this evening. Light northeast to east winds are expected into tonight. The fog over the lake east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and should remain fog free into this evening. High pressure slowly moving to the east of Lake Superior tonight into Tuesday will bring quiet weather to the area. A few middle to high clouds may pass through overnight, though mostly clear skies are expected. More diurnal cumulus clouds expected on Tuesday. Winds will remain light out of the east on Tuesday. MARINE... Fog east of Milwaukee has finally dissipated, and this area should remain fog free into this evening. Lake surface temperatures via the latest MODIS satellite imagery were showing values around 59 degrees Fahrenheit. Dewpoints are expected to continue to slowly drop into the 50s this evening, which should negate any redevelopment of fog. Light northeast to east winds are expected tonight into Tuesday night, with high pressure passing by to the northeast of the region. This will bring quiet weather, with low wave heights. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update...Hentz Tonight/Tuesday and Aviation/Marine...Wood Tuesday Night through Monday...SPM  FXUS63 KMKX 150219 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 919 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017 .UPDATE... Stratocumulus continues to erode due to building subsidence. Temperatures will fall to/or below crossover temperature overnight. With boundary layer winds less than 10 knots, and mostly clear skies, expanded patchy fog farther east and lowered overnight lows 1-3 degrees most areas. && .AVIATION (03Z TAFS)... Stratocumulus continues to thin and dissipate across southern Wisconsin. Should be clear by 03-04Z across the area. With boundary layer winds less than 10 knots, and little drop in dewpoints, wl continue to mention late night fog. && .MARINE... Light winds to persist through tonight, becoming offshore. Recent MODIS sea surface temperature imagery suggested some cooler waters have risen to the surface due to upwelling. Water temperatures have lowered into the 50s in some pockets of the near shore waters. With light winds and area dewpoints about 5 to 10 degrees warmer, added patchy fog mention to northern zones for late tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 625 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017) UPDATE...Widespread evening clearing may take several hours longer than originally anticipated. Latest GOES-16 images showing cu and stratocumulus thinning and dissipating over eastern areas but still a large area of bkn-ovc sc north over south central WI. Still expect clearing to take place in building subsidence overnight with some patchy late night fog. AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...BKN-OVC stratocumulus should continue to thin and dissipate through the evening as subsidence builds into the area. Late night fog may reduce visibilities to 2 to 4 miles, possibly lower in more susceptible areas. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 336 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017) SHORT TERM... Tonight and Saturday...Forecast Confidence is High. These low clouds are finally breaking up and will gradually clear later this evening as we lose daytime heating and some drier air aloft reaches us. Radiational cooling and dewpoints sticking around the upper 50s should allow for some patchy fog to develop tonight as the surface high tracks over southern WI. The better chance for fog is over south central WI. I can't rule out early morning lakeshore fog because dewpoints are right around the water temperature, but not enough confidence to put in the forecast at this time. We should be mostly sunny during the day Saturday. Warm air being pumped into western WI out ahead of the approaching cold front on southwesterly winds will help us to reach lower 80s for highs. Saturday night and Sunday...Forecast Confidence...Medium A broad upper trough forms over the Great Lakes with another modest speed max pushing into southern Wisconsin late Saturday night. Upper divergence increases with moderate 700 mb upward motion Saturday evening. The 850 mb thermal ridge is across southern Wisconsin during the evening, then dropping south into illinois late. 850 mb dewpoints rise to 14 Celsius. 850 mb winds are west northwest early evening, then northwest late, becoming north later Sunday. The cold front moves across the forecast area Saturday night, exiting the far south just after sunrise. The cap weakens early evening, as zero to 1 km mixed layer CAPE rises to almost 2000 Joules/kg. Showers/thunderstorms are expected with the cold front. GFS forecast soundings are showing a bit more severe potential with surface to 1 km shear around 22 knots. Mid, then low level drying behind the front Sunday. A northeast flow will cool areas, especially near Lake Michigan. LONG TERM... Monday through Friday...Forecast Confidence...Medium An upper ridge extends into Wisconsin Monday before the upper flow becomes more zonal Tuesday and Tuesday night. The zonal flow continues through Wednesday and Thursday and a bit more northwest Friday, as a broad trough forms near and then just east of the Hudson Bay area. Surface high pressure will be over the great Lakes Monday. A warmer return flow sets up for Tuesday. As the upper flow becomes more zonal, the chance of thunderstorms will return from Tuesday evening into Friday with several periods of thunderstorms. the best chances are Wednesday into Thursday with a heavy rain potential. AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... Clouds with bases 2000 to 3000 ft range are gradually rising to greater than 3000 ft and breaking up a little. Light west winds and mostly clear skies are then expected tonight with high pressure over the area. Radiational cooling could cause patchy fog to develop, more likely in south central WI. Mostly sunny skies Saturday. Then a cold front will track southeast through WI and could kick up some storms Saturday evening. MARINE... Light winds and waves tonight with high pressure spreading into the area. Can't rule out early morning lakeshore fog because dewpoints are right around the water temperature, but not enough confidence to put in the forecast at this time. Increasing southwest winds will move any lake fog offshore by late morning. Gusty north to northeast winds are then expected for Sunday into Sunday evening. Some gusts to 22 knots are possible at times. Waves may build to 3 to 5 feet during this time. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Sunday into Sunday night. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update/Aviation/Marine...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 190848 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. The overnight showers and storms have diminished and pushed off to the east and south. However weak frontal boundary remains over southern WI along with some weak MUCape. Hence can not rule out an isolated shower or storm redeveloping next several hours, mainly across southern CWA. In addition, patchy fog may become briefly dense due to the light winds and high low level moisture through the early morning. The fog threat will diminish by mid-morning as winds pickup from the north to northeast and slightly drier air moves in from the north. A mostly dry day lies ahead for the area with some reprieve from the humid conditions in the northern CWA. Humid conditions wl linger across the southwest. Sunshine should help temperatures recover into the 80s most area, but onshore flow wl keep lakeshore temps a bit cooler in the mid 70s to around 80. Stalled frontal boundary to the south of WI this afternoon will begin moving back to the north tonight in response to strong synoptic scale forcing moving across the upper midwest. Right entrance region of upper jet passes across the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes tonight, resulting in a period of strong upper level divergence moving across portions of MN into WI and IA tngt. All short term guidance in good agreement on vigorous low level jet developing across southern MN this evening and then spreading east or southeast overnight. ECMWF and GEM spread strong low level convergence mainly eastward into central and northern WI, while GFS and NAM farther south. Strong WNW winds at 700H and 500H would typically carry the developing MCS southeast along the strengthening quasi-stationary boundary that will extend from southern MN across eastern IA into the vicinity of southern WI/northern IL. Hence leaning more on southern solutions and wl continue likely wording for thunder in the 06Z-12Z period. Not impossible a bow echo/high wind event may occur and affect the area. SPC higher risk category may spread farther east into southern WI later today. Expect tonights convection to move at a higher rate of speed southeast, and not expecting storms to repeatedly affect an area resulting in flooding rains. However, some areas may still receive an inch of rainfall overnight with high rainfall rates resulting in ponding of water and minor street flooding. .LONG TERM... Thursday... Forecast confidence is Medium. Showers and storms will taper off across southern WI Thu morning. It will take several hours for the atmosphere to recover, and we will likely lack forcing for additional showers or storms the rest of the day since the front/outflow will presumably be down in IL. Still, I kept the slight chance in the fcst in case any weak boundaries can trigger a shower or storm. We will still be in a warm and humid air mass, so expect highs to reach the mid 80s but is dependent upon cloud cover. The front will begin to lift back northward Thu night, so there are increasing chances for storms after midnight. Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium. Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient during this time and we will continue to monitor this period for a flash flood potential. Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by. Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium. A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with this, but moisture and instability are still questionable. High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a warm front Tuesday night. && .AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Light winds high low level moisture are allowing patchy fog and low clouds to develop across the area. Would expect this trend to continue for a few more hours until mid-morning or so as winds become more northeasterly and increase. Hence patchy IFR cigs and vsbys may affect TAF sites for a few hours. Otherwise, a VFR day lies ahead. Still looking like a period of thunderstorms will affect parts of southern WI after midnight tonight. Strong winds may accompany the storms. && .MARINE... Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan surface temps in the 60s to around 70. Light winds for a time this morning along with high surface moisture may result in areas of fog developing. As drier air moves southward later this morning and afternoon, the threat of fog will diminish. Dry conditions are expected most of today into this evening as winds becoming north to northeast. A few wind gusts to 15-18 knots will be possible later this morning. A period of thunderstorms may sweep across the near shore waters after midnight tonight, possibly producing strong wind gusts. && .HYDROLOGY... The round of thunderstorms tonight is expected to be progressive with up to an inch of rain. Thus, this period does not look like a flash flood threat or one that would exacerbate river flooding. The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to bring the risk for heavy rainfall. This would aggravate ongoing flooding across far southeast Wisconsin, and create flooding issues elsewhere, especially in urban areas. Once more confidence is gained with timing of these rounds of storms, expected rainfall amounts will become more clear. Keep up with the latest forecasts into this weekend. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Thursday through Tuesday...Cronce  FXUS63 KMKX 191435 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 935 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .UPDATE... An elongated stretch of low clouds exists from the Milwaukee Metro area west towards Madison...and is about 30-50 miles wide from north to south. As drier air works slowly into the region and the day heats up with better mixing the low clouds will fade away through the late morning and afternoon. Current dewpts are high with most around 70...slightly drier but muggy in the upper 60s north of the clouds. Rest of forecast looks to be in solid shape with no other tweaks needed at this time. && .MARINE... Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan surface temps in the 60s to around 70. Light winds continuing with some low clouds and areas of fog along the nearshore. As drier air moves southward later this morning and afternoon, the threat of low clouds and fog will diminish. Dry conditions are expected most of today into this evening as winds becoming north to northeast. A few wind gusts to 15-18 knots will be possible later this morning. A period of thunderstorms may sweep across the near shore waters after midnight tonight, possibly producing strong wind gusts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 659 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017) AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...Patchy low clouds and stratus will continue to affect southern WI this morning as surface wind shift and front sag south through far southern WI. Expect the stratus to eventually thin and become more few-sct later this morning and aftn. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017) SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. The overnight showers and storms have diminished and pushed off to the east and south. However weak frontal boundary remains over southern WI along with some weak MUCape. Hence can not rule out an isolated shower or storm redeveloping next several hours, mainly across southern CWA. In addition, patchy fog may become briefly dense due to the light winds and high low level moisture through the early morning. The fog threat will diminish by mid-morning as winds pickup from the north to northeast and slightly drier air moves in from the north. A mostly dry day lies ahead for the area with some reprieve from the humid conditions in the northern CWA. Humid conditions wl linger across the southwest. Sunshine should help temperatures recover into the 80s most area, but onshore flow wl keep lakeshore temps a bit cooler in the mid 70s to around 80. Stalled frontal boundary to the south of WI this afternoon will begin moving back to the north tonight in response to strong synoptic scale forcing moving across the upper midwest. Right entrance region of upper jet passes across the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes tonight, resulting in a period of strong upper level divergence moving across portions of MN into WI and IA tngt. All short term guidance in good agreement on vigorous low level jet developing across southern MN this evening and then spreading east or southeast overnight. ECMWF and GEM spread strong low level convergence mainly eastward into central and northern WI, while GFS and NAM farther south. Strong WNW winds at 700H and 500H would typically carry the developing MCS southeast along the strengthening quasi-stationary boundary that will extend from southern MN across eastern IA into the vicinity of southern WI/northern IL. Hence leaning more on southern solutions and wl continue likely wording for thunder in the 06Z-12Z period. Not impossible a bow echo/high wind event may occur and affect the area. SPC higher risk category may spread farther east into southern WI later today. Expect tonights convection to move at a higher rate of speed southeast, and not expecting storms to repeatedly affect an area resulting in flooding rains. However, some areas may still receive an inch of rainfall overnight with high rainfall rates resulting in ponding of water and minor street flooding. LONG TERM... Thursday... Forecast confidence is Medium. Showers and storms will taper off across southern WI Thu morning. It will take several hours for the atmosphere to recover, and we will likely lack forcing for additional showers or storms the rest of the day since the front/outflow will presumably be down in IL. Still, I kept the slight chance in the fcst in case any weak boundaries can trigger a shower or storm. We will still be in a warm and humid air mass, so expect highs to reach the mid 80s but is dependent upon cloud cover. The front will begin to lift back northward Thu night, so there are increasing chances for storms after midnight. Friday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is Medium. Heavy rainfall possible this period. Southern WI is in a prime area for showers and storms over a fairly long period of time late this week. There will be zonal flow aloft with a few ripples/shortwaves, the right entrance region of the upper jet tracking over central WI, warm air advection, and moisture transport on the nose of the low level jet from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 2 inches during this time, which is around 175% of normal. Showers with isolated thunder should be very efficient during this time and we will continue to monitor this period for a flash flood potential. Saturday night looks dry as high pressure briefly passes by. Sunday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium. A more amplified upper trough is expected to roll across Lake Superior on Sunday. The associated surface low should move across northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with this, but moisture and instability are still questionable. High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first part of next week. Our next chance for storms will arrive with a warm front Tuesday night. HYDROLOGY... The round of thunderstorms tonight is expected to be progressive with up to an inch of rain. Thus, this period does not look like a flash flood threat or one that would exacerbate river flooding. The time period to watch for excessive rainfall is Friday afternoon through Saturday night. This active period of weather has the potential for training of storms over the same areas to bring the risk for heavy rainfall. This would aggravate ongoing flooding across far southeast Wisconsin, and create flooding issues elsewhere, especially in urban areas. Once more confidence is gained with timing of these rounds of storms, expected rainfall amounts will become more clear. Keep up with the latest forecasts into this weekend. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Update...ABS Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...ABS Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...ABS  FXUS63 KMKX 210840 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 340 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium to High. Cirrus shield from IA/IL convection over southern WI preventing fog from becoming more widespread and dense. GOES-16 night time microphysics enhancement showing slight warming and thinning of the cirrus shield in northenr IA, which makes sense as convection wanes as Mesoscale convective vortex in vicinity of KDVN continues moving southeast. Removed pops from early this morning in the southwest. Due to cirrus shield thinning, will continue to mention patchy fog due to light winds and high low level humidity. Quasi-station boundary draped across southern IA and central IL will begin moving northward today in response to upstream short wave trof over eastern MT moving eastward through the northern Plains. Deep moisture with precipitable water values approaching 2 inches is tied to the warm front. Increasing warm air and moisture advection into southwest and central WI wl likely trigger scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Influx of low 70 dewpoints will aid in MUCape values increasing to 2-4000 j while bulk shear increases to 20- 40kts. Thinking a few severe storms may affect northwest CWA this afternoon. Can not rule out an isolated tornado with approaching boundary and low level shear increasing to 20 kts. SPC Storm scale Ensemble of Opportunity shows higher updraft helicity and speeds remaining just west of the area. Strengthening low level jet will result in rapid convection initiation upsteam over southeast MN/western WI during the evening. This will transition to wind and hail event which will likely track along the warm front which by that time should be draped across southern Wisconsin. Low level jet pivots east and south carrying strong convection across southern WI overnight. Axis of heavy rainfall has shifted slightly northward more into southern WI so wl expand Flash Flood Watch farther northeast to include Marquette, Dodge, Waukesha and Milwaukee counties. Many areas could receive overnight rainfall exceeding 2 inches. 3 hour flash flood guidance in this area is less than 2 inches. Also these areas received heavy rain in the recent past so antecendent conditions remain moist. For more discussion on tonight's rainfall, check out below hydrology section. .LONG TERM... Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium. We will lose our stronger forcing Saturday morning, but the front may take a few more hours to sag south of the WI/IL border after the main round of storms exits. It's a small chance but there could still be a few showers and weak storms that fire up along any lingering outflow boundaries or the front through the afternoon into the early evening. The rest of Saturday night will be dry as a deeper layer of dry air tracks over the area. A more amplified and robust upper trough is expected to roll across Lake Superior on Sunday. The ECMWF is fastest with this feature. The associated surface low should move across northern WI that drags a cold front through southern WI midday Sunday. There could be a few showers and storms associated with this Sunday afternoon and early evening, but moisture and instability are still questionable. Monday through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium. High pressure will keep us dry and relatively cool for the first part of next week. Cyclonic flow may push some low clouds into southeast WI Monday morning along a secondary cold front. Thus highs are only expected in the lower 70s. Another upper low will roll through Ontario Tue night into Wednesday and extend a surface frontal boundary into central WI. This stalled boundary will be the focus for our next chance for storms Wed through Fri morning as it wavers over the area. && .AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Cirrus shield from IA/IL convection over southern Wisconsin preventing fog from becoming more widespread and dense. GOES-16 nighttime microphysics enhancement showing slight warming and thinning of the cirrus shield in northern IA. Expect thinning to continue through the early morning as convection to the south wanes. Hence light fog wl continue to affect southern WI through the early morning with the fog becoming localized dense, especially in the northern CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will develop over south central WI this afternoon and transition to heavy rain/wind event overnight. && .MARINE... Light winds will allow patchy fog to develop closer to the shore early this morning. The fog should be shallower and quickly dissipate. Recent MODIS imagery measured Lake Michigan sea surface temp has warmed into the upper 60s to lower 70s as recent winds have remained light resulting in little upwelling. Mariners main concern will be a period of thunderstorms tonight. These thunderstorms may produce damaging downburst winds and large hail. Most favored time is 03Z-10Z. && .HYDROLOGY... Will continue Flash Flood Watch across southern WI and expand into a few counties farther east including Marquette, Dodge, Waukesha and Milwaukee. 3 hour Flash Flood Guidance is less than 2 inches in these areas. Precipitable water will increase to around 2 inches this afternoon and tonight, which is well above the normal for mid- July. These values are causing the North American Ensemble Forecast System standardized anomolies to close in on 3 units tonight. Return Interval for these elevated PW is getting into the one day every 1-2 year. With strength of low level jet and passing right entrance region of upper level jet, significant flooding event could occur tonight somewhere in southern Wisconsin. Fortunately, Corfidi vectors remain progressive most of the night, but hint at possible back-building late, most likely after MCS has passed off to the east. Biggest hydrology concern is for those areas in northwest CWA which received heavy rainfall Wednesday night/Thursday morning including Sauk, Iowa and Dane counties. Rock Springs on Baraboo River already forecast to get close to Major flood. Will be watching hydrographs closely in next 24 hours. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for WIZ056-057-062>064-067>072. LM...None. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Saturday through Thursday...Cronce  FXUS63 KMKX 260832 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 332 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017 .DISCUSSION... TODAY AND TONIGHT - Confidence...Medium. Initial surge of moisture advection producing scattered showers across western CWA early this morning. Expect this initial surge to weaken early this morning as it encounters drier air farther east. However reinforcing push of moisture advection ahead of approaching cold front should trigger more scattered showers and a few t-storms later this morning and afternoon across southern WI. Prefer GFS solution with location of frontal boundary at 12Z, however all short term guidance carry weak low pressure over the tri-state area northeast across northern WI this morning and into southern Canada by this evening. This track will carry a cold front across southern WI today, exiting the far southeast early this evening. Deep moisture in place along with the passing front and enhanced synoptic lift from southern extent of mid-level short wave should generate at least scattered showers and a few t-storms across CWA today. Showers may remain more scattered or isolated over far southeast WI which will be farther away from synoptic forcing. Milwaukee record high is 88 today and starting out the day in the upper 60s or low 70s. However increasing mid-high level clouds should keep high temps just below reaching record levels. Showers will diminish from west to east during the afternoon and early evening. Increasing low level cold air advection will likely pull in a period of low clouds from MN/IA for a time tonight as temperatures dip into the upper 40s and 50s. Wednesday - Confidence...High A much cooler airmass will be in place. The cooler air brought in by northwest winds. High pressure will be ridging into the area. in the wake of the frontal boundary. Thursday - Confidence...Medium to High A brief thermal ridge works in ahead of another front that will be dropping south into northern WI associated with low pressure moving east of Lake Superior. 925 temps bounce back to the mid teens celsius with more of a westerly flow ahead of the front. Showers associated with this feature are expected to remain in northern WI. The cold front drops in Thursday evening. Models are not doing much with this feature its passage thus pops are mostly on the dry side. Friday through Sunday - Confidence...Medium to High High pressure regains control and the influence of this feature dominates through the weekend. The high will shift off to the east into the eastern Lakes for Saturday and the NE US for Sunday. A return flow sets up for Sunday but at this time the progs suggest all precip will remain to our west in the Plains in association with a low pressure trough there. The coldest 925 temps are expected Friday night into Saturday morning with a gradual rebound for the balance of the weekend. Monday - Confidence...Low The ECMWF and to a lesser extent the GEM show a quicker advance of the Plains trough into the Upper Midwest with a more progressive mid level pattern. The GFS keeps Monday dry with a slower more amplified 500 millibar trough. Looks like we should see a bump in the 925 temps deeper into the teens celsius. && .AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...A few showers may brush the Madison area early this morning. Otherwise, expect scattered showers and isolated t-storms to develop later this morning and afternoon across southern WI as a cold front sweeps through southern WI. Ceilings may drop to MVFR due to passing showers. Increasing northwest winds behind front may pull in a period of low stratus across the area tonight. && .MARINE...Light southwest winds will back to mostly a south direction this morning and waver between south and southeast for the afternoon due to inland heating. Wind gusts may reach 15 knots. Recent MODIS imagery shows lake temperatures have rebounded back into the upper 60s to around 70 well offshore while pockets of cooler lake surface temps were located from offshore of Sheboygan county south to Wind Point. A cold front is expected to pass across the nearshore waters late this afternoon and evening turning winds to the WNW. A tightening pressure gradient and the surge of cooler air will result in increasing winds overnight, with gusts approaching Small Craft Advisory levels into early Wednesday. For now, looks like most gusts will remain below 22 knots so wl hold off on issuing Small Craft Advisory, but mariners should be prepared for gusty offshore winds developing tonight. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...MBK Wednesday through Monday...Collar  FXUS63 KMKX 140930 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 330 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 .SHORT TERM... .Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Warm air advection is expected today across the area, which will bring milder temperatures into the area. Given the snowpack over the area, highs will be tempered somewhat, so went near short term model blended values in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There is the possibility of an area of thin low stratus clouds to move into southern and eastern portions of the area this evening, lingering later tonight. There also is fog potential as well, with the warmer air moving over the snowpack. There is uncertainty here with these occurring. There could be breaks in the thin low stratus clouds, and gusty boundary layer winds and limited low layer moisture may limit the extent of the fog. For now, brought in the thin low stratus to the southern and eastern portions of the area tonight. There should be some fog development mainly later tonight, especially in the far south and southwest, closest to where it should advect from. Lows tonight should not drop a whole lot, especially if any thin low stratus clouds lingers. .LONG TERM... Thursday - confidence medium Soundings show a saturated shallow layer at the surface into Thursday morning. There is a very dry air aloft and winds are elevated off the deck. So will have mention of patchy fog and low stratus. However, surface winds wind down during at this time, especially in the southwest so will have to watch if advection fog creates for more of a problem. Later Thursday winds become northwest bringing in some drier air mitigating fog potential later in the day. The upper jet strengthens over the region on Thursday within southwest flow aloft. Low pressure passes by to the south of the state and there is a small chance of light rain clipping the southeast. There is a small chance for some light snow showers Thursday night as a shortwave moves through. Little, if any accumulation. Friday through Wednesday- confidence high Northwest winds ramps up on Friday as high pressure sinks into the plains. An upper trough drops through bringing colder temps Friday and Saturday. The highs slides across the region Friday night and with clear skies lows will be in the single digits. A surface and upper trough moves through on Saturday with a warm air advection regime and a chance for light snow. The GFS and ECMWF are showing an active pattern for early next week. Temperatures bounce around the freezing mark depending on the time of day so there are chances for rain and snow. && .AVIATION(09Z TAFS)... Low level wind shear will continue into about the middle morning hours across the area, with southwest winds at 2000 feet above ground level around 40 knots. These winds will weaken as the morning goes on. Expect south southwest winds gusting up to 20 knots near Lake Michigan today, with lower gusts inland. Clear skies this morning should gradually give way to some thin low stratus clouds moving into southern and eastern portions of the area early this evening and into tonight. Some fog is expected as well, mainly later tonight. There is some uncertainty with how widespread any low ceilings will be, as well as how low visibility values will get. There may be some breaks in the thin low stratus as well. Could see ceilings around 1000 feet with visibility values down to 1 to 2 miles, mainly in the southern and eastern portions of the area. && .MARINE... Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory early, as winds are well below criteria across the area. South southwest winds are expected to gust to near 22 knots at times today into tonight, with higher winds toward 1000 feet above the surface and still below the inversion. However, think that this is a borderline situation for a Small Craft Advisory. MODIS imagery from Tuesday shows that most of the nearshore waters are covered in ice. Thus, any wave action will be limited, given the offshore flow. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for LMZ643-644. && $$ Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Wood Thursday through Tuesday...Marquardt  FXUS63 KMKX 280319 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 919 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019 .UPDATE...Dry air in place over southern WI contributing to eroding first push of lift associated with warm air advection ahead of strengthening Dakotas low pressure. Hence 1-3 hour delay in snow begin times. 00Z NAM initially takes a slightly more southward track of the low across IA into northwest IL tonight into Monday morning, however it then moves northeast to near Wind Lake by 18Z. This would keep the enhanced lift from Lake Michigan from Milwaukee north, so still thinking the heaviest accumulations would be in this area. Never the less, still like total accumulations anywhere from 6 to 14 inches across southern WI, with the highest amounts in the east. No changes to headlines at this time. && .MARINE...Tightening pressure gradient associated with approaching low pressure from the Dakotas will result in gusty southeast winds developing overnight, with potential gales reaching 35 to 40 knots in the open waters. A few gales to 35 knots may affect the nearshore waters late tonight into early Monday but not expected to be frequent enough to warrant upgrading Small Craft Advisory to Gale Warning at this time. Much of the nearshore waters ice covered as well per latest hi resolution MODIS imagery from today. No change to ongoing marine headlines at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 622 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019) UPDATE...Period of mostly clear skies late this afternoon and early evening has allowed temperatures to fall off rapidly in the eastern areas. Mid-high clouds have spread into western CWA and will continue east the next 1-2 hours, causing temperatures to level off. However needed to lower temps in eastern areas a few degrees. Leading edge of the snow spreading ESE across northeast IA and southeast MN. This will continue to spread rapidly southeast and spread across south central and southeast WI between 730 pm and 11 pm. Winter Storm Warning now in effect for western areas. The heaviest snows is expected later tonight into Monday morning. AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Snow will spread across southern Wisconsin this evening with ceilings and vsbys quickly lowering to low MVFR and IFR. Low level winds become southeast and increase late this evening, increasing the chance for lake enhancement to the incoming snow later tonight into Monday morning. Areas of blowing snow are expected due to the more powdery nature of the snow and wind gusts up to 30 mph. PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 349 PM CST Sun Jan 27 2019) SHORT TERM... Tonight and Monday...Forecast Confidence is high. Major winter storm on track to affect the region tonight and Monday. Winter storm warning remains in effect. Changes to the forecast include an hour or two later snow arrival time this evening. Increased snowfall between 6 AM and Noon on Monday. Snow will gradually enter from west to east this evening and warm advection aloft kicks into gear at the nose of a 45kt low level jet. HRRR/RAP have come into line with GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM with the surface low strengthening and track. With the majority of the area north of the low track that goes across northern Illinois, we are poised for significant snow accumulation. QPF output remains robust, suggesting 1 to 2 inch per hour snow rates overnight through the mid morning hours Monday. This will cause significant travel impacts, with substantial impacts to the Monday morning commute. All areas can expect at least 6 inches of snowfall with a widespread 6-10 inches forecast. The axis of highest snowfall, between 10 and 14 inches is focused on the northeast portion of the forecast area, including areas in and around Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, Port Washington, West Bend and Juneau. It is entirely possible this band of higher snow shifts just a bit to the south and includes the the I-94 corridor. Bottom line, widespread heavy snow is expected. Lake enhancement will likely add 2-4 inches for lake front counties overnight through mid Monday morning. Right now, Sheboygan, Ozaukee and Milwaukee are most prone to these higher amounts. It is not out of reason to see storm total snowfall around 18 inches where lake enhancement is maximized. Snow will gradually taper off from west to east during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will then shift to the north/northwest and become gusty. This will result in considerable blowing and drifting of the newly fallen snow. This will create additional impacts to the evening commute. It should be noted that forecast wind speeds and gusts fall short of blizzard criteria (35kt for 3 hours or more). That said, considerable blowing and drifting is expected, especially Monday afternoon into Monday night. LONG TERM... Monday Night Through Thursday Night... Forecast Confidence is High. Arctic air will slide into the Upper Midwest late Monday night in the wake of the winter storm. This is due to an upper low barreling into the region. Southern WI will remain in a tight pressure gradient as the surface low pressure system stalls over the eastern Great Lakes and high pressure builds into the Northern Plains and then eventually into the Midwest. Low temperatures and wind chill values Monday night will be modest as winds remain fairly light and clouds linger. Westerly winds will begin to increase Tuesday morning with the leading edge of the arctic front. We should at least see some flurries with this, if not widespread light snow with a dusting of accumulation. The powdery snow on the ground will have a good chance of blowing around, so expect drifting snow across north-south oriented roads. The heart of the cold air will arrive in southern WI late Tuesday night. There is a discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF about how cold the 850mb temps will be (ECMWF is 10 degrees colder), but they agree on the 925mb temps being in the 32 to 35 degree below zero range. Low temps should be around -20 near the lakeshore and -26 well inland Wednesday morning. With brisk westerly winds all night and into the morning, wind chill values will be in the -40 to -50 degree range. These values are on par with records set in 1982 and 1985. Winds will begin to diminish Wednesday evening. With clearing skies, we have a pretty good chance at dropping into the 20s below zero once again, with wind chill values around -40. We held off with wind chill headlines to get through this winter storm. We will probably need a wind chill advisory for Monday night and then a wind chill watch that would roll into a warning for Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Expect these to be issued by tomorrow afternoon. Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is Medium. As high pressure shifts into the eastern US, expect temperatures to rebound into the lower/mid 30s across southern Wisconsin by this weekend. With this round of warm air advection, we can expect some chances for mixed precipitation during this time. AVIATION(21Z TAFS)... Major winter storm still on track to affect the region tonight and Monday. Only change to the forecast was to delay snow onset by an hour or two. Confidence is high in impactful snow, with one to two inch per hour rates overnight, and lasting into the mid morning hours of Monday at MKE/UES/ENW. Winds will be light/variable late this afternoon and early this evening before establishing a southerly direction and becoming gusty at times overnight. IFR ceilings will spread over the region with the heavy snow, with LIFR visibility possible from time to time. IFR ceilings will persist into much of Monday. Winds will gradually shift to the northwest on Monday, becoming increasingly gusty during the afternoon and evening. Snow will taper off from west to east from the late morning through the afternoon hours. Flurries may linger into Monday evening. MARINE... Nearshore Waters... Expect gusts of 25 to 30 knots later tonight through Monday. Winds will be southeast tonight and north on Monday. A small craft advisory remains in effect tonight into Thursday. Expect high waves and freezing spray toward the open waters and ice free areas of the near shore into Monday. West winds will remain gusty through much of the week with gusts to 30 kts at times. Open Waters... A Gale Warning remain in effect for the open waters of Lake Michigan from 06Z tonight until 06Z Tuesday. There will be a couple of periods of gales to 35 knots during this time. The south half will see this later tonight with southeast to east gales, and again Monday afternoon and evening with north to northwest gales. The north half will see east to northeast gales later tonight into Monday. High waves are expected. There will be somewhat of a lull in winds Tuesday morning. Then gusty west to northwest winds are expected later Tuesday into Thursday morning. Gales are possible at times, especially for the central and southern part of the lake. Gusty winds and very cold temperatures will combine to bring heavy freezing spray through this week. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for the north half remains in effect into Thursday morning. Also added a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for the south half. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Monday for WIZ046-047-051- 052-056>060-062>072. LM...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 3 AM CST Friday for LMZ080- 261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870- 872-874-876-878. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST Monday night for LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777- 779-868-870-872-874-876-878. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LMZ643>646. && $$ Update...MBK Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...MBK Monday Night through Sunday...Cronce  FXUS63 KMKX 160926 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 330 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2019 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence - High. Temperatures dropped into the single digits below zero from the Wisconsin River Valley to Fond du Lac and northward early this morning due to radiational cooling. There is thin cirrus streaming into southern WI that is associated with a mid level wave approaching. Aside from mid and high level clouds, there will be no impacts for southern WI from this feature today. Lake effect clouds coincident with high 925mb RH expanded from Green Bay into the Sheboygan area around midnight and have remained fairly stationary overnight. Another area of stratus lake clouds spread into the Chicago area. With winds turning around to the east through the morning, we can expect the low clouds to expand across the rest of the lakeshore counties. Flurries are likely with these clouds as they are right around -10C. SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence - Medium to High. Short term guidance remains in good consistency and agreement regarding weakening low level circulation tied to upper level jet passing to the south of Wisconsin on Sunday. This low level circulation will move along a baroclinic zone draped across the region, however the tighter thermal low level boundary will be to the south in IL/IA. The strongest synoptic lift with this system across southern WI will be late tonight into Sunday morning as a period of sloping frontogenetical forcing interacts the better Dendritic Growth Zone. This synoptic scale forcing weakens during the afternoon but lingering warm air advection and low level convergence will continue to generate lift across the area. In addition, lake enhancement will add to the synoptic lift during the day as Delta-T increases to around 10-11C as the low level winds gradually back from the east to the northeast. The synoptic lift shifts to the east by Sunday evening, however the threat for pure lake effect will increase as the low level winds remain northeast for a period of time resulting in a longer fetch. The delta-T increases to 13-14 degrees so expecting additional light accumulations near the lakeshore Sunday night. Using Cobb, thickness and climatology techniques, used Snow Liquid Ratio's of 15 to 19 to 1, which was lower then Superblend. Using average QPF around 0.18, which was close to Model Certainty mean, ended up with snowfall mostly in the 2 to 4" range with highest amounts in the southwest and closer to Lake Michigan. However some 5" possible in these areas per probabilities. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for the south and east due to expected impacts on Sunday travel, but wl let day shift make final decision. Lingering lake effect Sunday night should taper off late in the night into early Monday. .LONG TERM... TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence - Medium. The extended period should start out on a quiet and cold note with amplifying short wave ridging and a large surface high pressure area moving across the region. The quiet weather will be short-lived however as an upstream long wave trof over the western CONUS will be ejecting a stronger piece of short wave energy in the midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will have a bit more "kick" to it then the Sunday system and will likely bring another round of light snow to the area beginning later Tuesday night and possibly lingering through Wednesday night. There remains considerable variation in the Medium Range ensembles the track and strength of this low pressure area. However using a blend of the GEM, GFS and ECMWF places southern WI squarely in a period of synoptic scale lift during this period. Low level temperature profile shows mostly -sn, however a wintery mix may push into southeast areas on Wednesday. Once again, lake enhancement may increase snowfall closer to the lake due to a persistent low level easterly fetch over the mostly open waters of Lake Michigan. SLR will likely be in the 13 to 18 to 1 range. Looking like a potential for another 3 to 6" snowfall across the area. Possible that lake effect snow showers linger through Wednesday night before the low level winds turn NNW by Thursday. The persistent upstream long wave trof keeps the active weather going towards the weekend as well, with potentially another system bringing a wintery mix to the area around Saturday. While the mid-level steering winds remain from the WSW, cold air will remain firmly entrenched in the low levels. So expect temperatures to be below normal for most of this period. && .AVIATION(09Z TAFS)... Stratus with MVFR ceilings around 2100 feet spread into the Sheboygan area around midnight and have held steady for the time being. Expect these low clouds to spread across the rest of the lakeshore counties through mid morning as winds turn around to the east. The top of the shallow saturated layer is right around -10C, sufficient for flurries today. Clouds should continue to expand inland through the afternoon. Look for accumulating snow to spread into southern WI from the southeast late tonight and persist through Sunday evening before dissipating. Lake enhanced snow showers will likely contribute to higher snowfall amounts for lakeshore areas on Sunday. Then a lake effect snow band may brush southeast WI Sunday night into Monday morning as well. && .MARINE... We are not expecting gale force winds within the next week. Increasing east to northeast winds will build high waves in the nearshore from late tonight through Monday morning. We held off on a headline at this time. The latest MODIS satellite image from yesterday shows 50-70% ice cover over the nearshore areas but wide open over the open waters, with the exception of the far north. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. $$ TODAY AND TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MRC SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 191202 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 602 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019 .UPDATE... No change to the forecast for today. There is still patchy freezing fog out there that may cause some slick spots on roads. && .AVIATION(12Z TAFS)... There is patchy freezing ground fog out there early this morning. VFR conditions are expected today and through much of tonight. Look for snow to spread in quickly early Wednesday morning from the southwest. There will probably be a period of moderate snow with the main wave that moves through between 4 and 8 am, especially toward Janesville and Madison and areas west. Snow will transition to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and eventually rain in southeast WI, and a wintry mix over south central and east central WI midday Wednesday. It may remain all snow toward the Dells. Temperatures will max out in the lower 30s, right around freezing. && .MARINE... Yesterday's MODIS satellite imagery shows that the nearshore areas are largely ice covered. That may break apart as onshore winds develop late tonight. Easterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected Expect increasing easterly winds early Wednesday morning as low pressure approaches from the Plains. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected. Gale force gusts are possible, but should not be frequent enough for a gale warning at this time. Winds will shift to the west- southwest Wednesday night. Again, gale force gusts are possible. Winds will diminish through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory was posted for the nearshore areas of southeast WI. Yesterday's MODIS satellite imagery shows that the nearshore areas are largely ice covered. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 436 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019) SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High. There are pockets of very cold temps early this morning due to efficient radiational cooling. There are even pockets of freezing fog that developed. Freezing fog can cause slippery road conditions. Thin high clouds are beginning to spread into southern WI from the south. Expect quiet weather and light winds today with filtered sunshine. Highs will be in the mid 20s. Temperatures will remain mild tonight with increasing clouds and warm air advection ahead of low pressure approaching from the Plains. Wednesday... Forecast Confidence is Medium to High. Look for snow to spread in quickly early Wednesday morning from the southwest, right during the morning commute. There will probably be a period of moderate snow with the main wave that moves through between 4 and 8 am, especially toward Janesville and Madison and areas west. Snow will transition to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and eventually rain in southeast WI, and a wintry mix over south central and east central WI midday Wednesday. It may remain all snow toward the Dells. Timing for the Winter Weather Advisory headlines was tricky, but general thinking is that snow will spread into our south earlier than the northern areas toward central WI. Far southeast WI will likely rise above freezing by late afternoon which would help precip transition to all rain, so that area has an earlier end time of 3 pm. 6 pm is probably a little long to keep the advisory going in the southern half of WI since the precip will be ending from south to north, but this can account for if the system slows down. Temperatures will max out in the lower 30s, right around freezing. This will allow salt and other road treatments to work on diminishing snow/mixed precip during the afternoon. The best forcing for precip will arrive during the morning hours and impact the morning commute. This is associated with mainly 850mb frontogenesis, although strong 700mb warm air advection and frontogenesis will help to saturate the column. Behind that main snow band, dry air at 600-500mb RH spreads into southeast WI and potentially south central WI from late Wed morning through the afternoon. This will cut the moisture out of the snow growth zone and leave us with a deep layer of sub- freezing air with no ice crystals, thus freezing rain. If the dry slot is deep enough, then we would get lighter precip which would give us freezing drizzle instead. Either way, surface temperatures will take their time warming above freezing so we could end up with a glaze of ice or perhaps up to a tenth of an inch in a few spots, enough to create travel headaches through much of the day. Wednesday night through Thursday night...Forecast confidence high. The upper wave and occluded front will mostly be through srn WI by Wed eve so any lingering mixed pcpn will be very light. Brisk wly winds and cold advection will prevail the remainder of the night. The wly winds will gradually lessen on Thu as high pressure approaches. The high will settle over srn WI for Thu nt with single digit temps inland. The high will then move to the lower Great Lakes on Fri with an esely flow developing over srn WI. High temps will be near seasonal normals for Thu-Fri. LONG TERM...Friday night through Monday...Forecast confidence medium. Chances of mixed pcpn are forecast late Fri nt-Sat as warm advection occurs well ahead of strong cyclogenesis over the srn Great Plains. The deepening low will track from the srn Great Plains to se WI by Sun AM. This would bring widespread pcpn for Sat nt-Sun AM with more rain than snow over the se half of the area, and more snow than rain north and northwest of Madison. A period of windy conditions will likely occur as the low deepens into the 980s mb. High pressure then returns for Mon. AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...There is patchy freezing ground fog out there early this morning. VFR conditions are expected today and through much of tonight. Look for snow to spread in quickly early Wednesday morning from the southwest. There will probably be a period of moderate snow with the main wave that moves through between 4 and 8 am, especially toward Janesville and Madison and areas west. Snow will transition to freezing rain or freezing drizzle and eventually rain in southeast WI, and a wintry mix over south central and east central WI midday Wednesday. It may remain all snow toward the Dells. Temperatures will max out in the lower 30s, right around freezing. MARINE...Expect increasing easterly winds early Wednesday morning as low pressure approaches from the Plains. Gale force gusts are possible, but not expected to be frequent enough for a gale warning at this time. Winds will shift to the west-southwest Wednesday night. Again, gale force gusts are possible. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the nearshore areas of southeast WI. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ056-062>065-067>070. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ066-071-072. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for WIZ046-047-051-052-057>060. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 9 AM CST Thursday for LMZ643>646. && $$ Update...Cronce Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Cronce Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Gehring