FXUS64 KLUB 112015 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 315 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 .SHORT TERM... MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS 12Z UPA ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALSO HELP COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MIN TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE GLIDES OVER THE REGION. THIS QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LEE SURFACE TROF TO REESTABLISH A POSITION ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TROF AND THE RESULTANT INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...SPEEDS SHOULD MAX OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER THANKS TO THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED AMPLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. JORDAN && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UA RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL ENSUE BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS /AOA 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/ BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. IF THE FRONT BEHAVES AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM SOLUTION...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR A LIMITED PERIOD OF TIME AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER-HAND STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY THU MORNING AS THE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM SOLUTION HINTS AT PRECIP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM AS THE NAM IS THE ONLY SOLUTION SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY. THE NEXT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WITH FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND SOUNDINGS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NERN ZONES. SYNOPTIC LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AND THUS INCREASING CLOUDS APPEARS MORE PROBABLE ATTM. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD AND BE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR RATHER BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY /AOA 30 KTS PER MOS GUIDANCE/ AND THUS DUE TO RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY...CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THUS INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREAFTER...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO A SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE TRANSPORT OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE COMMENCES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PER THE ECMWF AND GFS...AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...THUS DRIVING DOWN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIP IS DEPICTED EAST OF THE REGION NEAREST THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS. && .FIRE WEATHER... GOES 3.9 MICRON AND MODIS/POES 3.7 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY ONE FIRE START SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE KENT/SCURRY COUNTY LINE. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THEY ARE NOT SHOWING ANY LARGE FLARE-UPS ON THE SWENSON/STONEWALL AND KING COUNTY FIRE. DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO HELP WITH ANY CONTINUED FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL TOMORROW FOR MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT SOUTH WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE COMPUTER MODELS FOR TOMORROW. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND PROMOTE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. COMPUTER MODELS STRUGGLE WITH A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE RETREATING IT NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ONE SOLUTION HOWEVER DRIVES THE FROPA ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LESSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE A POINT IN TIME WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT /EXCEPT AOA 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. THE BEST DAY IN REGARDS TO WIND SPEEDS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH NEAREST THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT CWA-WIDE...WITH 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH /VERSUS 15 TO 20 MPH ON WED/. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 38 78 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 10 10 TULIA 36 80 43 78 41 / 0 0 10 10 10 PLAINVIEW 39 80 44 82 44 / 0 0 0 10 10 LEVELLAND 39 80 46 84 46 / 0 0 0 10 10 LUBBOCK 44 81 48 85 47 / 0 0 0 10 10 DENVER CITY 38 80 46 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 BROWNFIELD 38 80 46 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 CHILDRESS 44 82 48 85 50 / 0 0 10 10 10 SPUR 44 82 48 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 10 ASPERMONT 44 83 49 87 52 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044. && $$ 14/29