FXUS63 KJKL 131742 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1242 PM EST Sun Nov 13 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 The latest MODIS imagery suggests the heaviest smoke remains across the TN Valley this afternoon. There are more localized issues here in eastern Ky particularly near the I-75 region around London and south/east. Given the more isolated nature will keep out of the grids. However some VIS restrictions are being seen in these areas based on webcams and ASOS. The 12Z HRRR Smoke product does suggest some elevated light smoke issues through the afternoon particular in the south, but this is not expected to be like the smoke issues seen last week. Forecast grids are on track but did update with latest obs. UPDATE Issued at 1028 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 Most sites have come above freezing this hour and therefore the Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire. Given the widespread hard freeze this will also put a end to the Frost/Freeze Program until spring. In terms of the forecast, surface analysis shows a high pressure generally center across northern KY and portions of WV. Meanwhile a upper level low is centered across the TN Valley and Northern GA, and this is bringing showers and clouds to portions of GA/SC this AM. We will remain under the control of the surface high and therefore another very dry day is on tap. We could also see some light smoke across the region today in the lower levels, but not confident that this will cause any widespread surface VIS restrictions. Therefore will leave out of the grids for now. However the localized sites near some of the ongoing wildfire will continue see restrictions. Updated grids with latest obs and trends, otherwise no major changes needed at this time. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points, based on the latest trends in observations. Temperatures look to rise to above freezing at all locations by 10 am, so will let the current headline run its course. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 247 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 High pressure is currently poised from the Arklatex region to the Ohio Valley. Aloft, an upper level low is cutting off near the Tennessee Valley, with another weaker cutoff low spiraling near the Texas/Oklahoma border. In between these two features, resides a ridge, currently centered across the Midwest. Clear skies and calm winds has allowed for the coldest night thus far this fall season across eastern Kentucky. Some valleys are already in the lower 20s, with another 4 hours or so of cooling to take place, yielding some upper teens in at least a few spots by dawn. Mainly clear skies will be seen today, as most of the cloud cover associated with the Tennessee Valley cutoff will remain southeast. Despite the cold start, highs will make it back into the lower 60s for most locations today. The Midwest ridge will break down tonight into Monday, with more troughiness culminating across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by the end of the short term. Tonight will not be as cold, although with drier dew points likely mixing down once again today, think that some valleys will make it into the 20s once again. Monday will feature a mostly sunny to partly cloudy day, with highs similar to today, although readings will be just a touch cooler in the east, where more clouds will reside. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday night) Issued at 304 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 The extended period should start off with a large trough of low pressure aloft parked over the eastern third of the CONUS. Since this system will be starved for moisture, we can expect nothing more than scattered cloud cover across the area as the trough pushes slowly off to the east Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure, mainly aloft at first, should begin displacing the aforementioned trough Tuesday night into Wednesday. As the ridge moves over our area, we can expect continued dry weather and a few clouds here and there through Friday. The next chance for rain across eastern Kentucky may not arrive until as late as Friday night, as a trough of low pressure and its associated surface cold front approach the area. This issue with this part of the forecast will be the timing of the weather system. As of now the GFS and ECMWF models differ quite a bit in this regard, with the GFS having a much slower solution than the ECMWF. Both models do, however, depict a strong area of low pressure with plenty of moisture for precipitation production, and a rather cold air mass moving in behind it. Another feature of this area of low pressure would be its somewhat slow eastward movement as it strengthens during its eastward trek. This would allow any precipitation the system produces to linger across the area through early Sunday morning. Temperatures across the area should start out around normal, with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday expected to top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A gradual warm up is then expected for the end of the week, as winds shift to the south and southwest ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. In fact, we could see high temperatures topping out in the upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday and Friday. The proof of the aforementioned cool down will likely be revealed on Saturday, with highs only expected to make it into the mid to upper 50s across the area, as a much colder air mass settles over the area behind our departed trough. Nightly lows should generally be in the 30s and 40s area wide during the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2016 VFR and light winds remains the story for most through the TAF period. There is some isolated smoke across the southeast KY this afternoon. Therefore will continue with a VIS restriction for smoke at LOZ. There is quite a bit of uncertainty on if this will clear out this evening. HRRR smoke product would show at least some elevated light smoke issues lingering in that area through the evening into the night. Right now will cutoff the MVFR VIS by 00Z, but this may need to be extended further particularly once the inversion sets up. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ  FXUS63 KJKL 141827 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 127 PM EST Mon Nov 14 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 127 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016 Latest MODIS data showing some light smoke is being seen across the area from Eastern TN wildfires. Given the overall better concentration based on the MODIS was in the far south and therefore added patchy smoke in the grids. The areas nearer the fire will have more issue related to VIS, but LOZ has improved this afternoon. This as BL winds are expected to shift to a more SW to W direction, but there could be a slight delay given some smoke further downstream in portions of central KY and Middle TN. Overall more minor changes made to deal with the latest obs and trends. UPDATE Issued at 1040 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 We are once again dealing with some smoke across the region. The BL winds are out of the south and this is pulling some smoke from the TN Valley into mainly southern portions of the CWA. Several sites in the south are dropping to 2 to 7 miles VIS. These winds are expected to shift more southwest to west, and this should help to decrease the smoke through the afternoon. The overall forecast grids are in good shape but did update with latest obs. UPDATE Issued at 644 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 Freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points into the diurnal rise to account for the latest trends in observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains track. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 Broad surface high pressure is sprawled from southeast Texas to the Tennessee Valley. A weak cold front is slowly shifting east and southeast from the Midwest down to the southern Plains states. Aloft, troughiness is culminating across the central to eastern CONUS. A couple of weaker upper level lows are moving through the flow, one currently near the Missouri/Arkansas border headed east, and the other moving more northeast into North Carolina. Meanwhile, a more substantial short wave is moving towards the Midwest. Eastern Kentucky remains under the influence of the surface high pressure nearby, with another cold night, thanks to a dry column and nearly calm winds once again. Valleys will likely not bottom out quite as much as yesterday morning, but a few places may get close. Moisture will gradually be on the increase through the short term, as the weak cold front approaches from the west. Today will feature another mostly sunny day, with light and variable winds picking up out of the west at 5 to 10 mph during peak mixing. This trajectory should help keep the smoke in check besides localities in the vicinity of any ongoing fires. Highs will generally be in the lower 60s once again. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies, with an increase in cloud cover towards dawn. While dew points will not be as dry as Sunday, still think that some of the eastern valleys will likely dip below 30 degrees once again, while ridges stay up at around 40 degrees. Tuesday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with the cold front disintegrating as it attempts to make its way across our parched region. Highs will be a touch cooler in most places thanks to the clouds, with around 60 degrees more common. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 311 AM EST MON NOV 14 2016 The extended period will start off dry and warm, with near normal temperatures expected on Wednesday, and well above normal temperatures on tap for Thursday and Friday. Highs on those three days are forecast to top out in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s to around 70, and the lower 70s respectively. Scattered clouds are also expected to move across the area on Wednesday, as a trough of low pressure aloft exits the area. After that, a large ridge of high pressure is progged to move slowly eastward across the eastern CONUS, bringing unseasonable warmth to eastern Kentucky to end the week. A significant pattern change is then expected over the upcoming weekend. The models are in agreement that a large trough of low pressure aloft will sweep across the Rocky Mountains and across the Plains and eventually the Great Lakes, and Ohio and Tennessee valley regions Friday night through the weekend. This system is expected to pull a good deal of cold air out of southern Canada and into the eastern CONUS as it makes its way east. There are two schools of thought with regard to this system. First, the ECMWF model brings a strong cold front across our region Friday night and Saturday, with widespread rain showers accompanying the front. This model has rain lingering across eastern Kentucky through early Sunday morning. The GFS, on the other hand, is about 6 hours slower with its eastward moving front than the ECMWF, and has its front weakening significantly as it moves our way. In fact, the GFS has very little if any rain actually affecting eastern Kentucky this weekend and essentially is moving a dry front across our area. That being said, the precipitation forecast for the weekend will feature the timing of the ECWMF model, with scaled down precipitation probabilities based on the amount of uncertainty between the two models. Will go with a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain for the period Friday night through early Sunday morning. The cold air associated with the weekend trough looks like it will be the real story. Saturday and Sunday should see below normal temperatures, particularly Sunday, after the trough axis has moved east of our area and winds have shifted to the northwest. Highs on Saturday are expected to only max out in the 50s, with max values in the 40s possible for Sunday. Overnight lows from Wednesday through Friday night are expected to bottom out in the 30s and 40s. Saturday night and Sunday could be substantially colder, with lows each of those nights in the lower 30s and mid to upper 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 14 2016 VFR remains the story with high pressure in control across the region. We do see some mid to high clouds across the far SE otherwise most our seeing mostly sunny skies. The only other issue is smoke coming in from wildfire across the TN Valley. This as BL winds have been out of the south and southeast this morning. The smoke is expected to subside through the afternoon, as the BL winds shift to a more SW to W direction. The only TAF site that has seen issues this morning is LOZ and they have since returned to VFR. We could begin to see a lower cloud deck, with dry cold front toward the end of the TAF period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DJ SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...DJ