FXUS64 KJAN 171948 AFDJAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 248 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER AND TEMPS. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT PLAYER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WITH A COOL/DRY SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE COAST, BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RATHER DRY CONDITIONS AROUND DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH RH'S DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS MEANING LESS GUSTY WIND. STILL, SUCH LOW HUMIDITY COUPLED WITH ANY GUSTS DURING DAYTIME MIXING WILL STILL BE DANGEROUS GIVEN THE VERY DRY VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT IN GRAPHICS/HWO THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL COME LARGER DIURNAL TEMP RANGES. WE SAW THIS LAST NIGHT, WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE TONIGHT, WITH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA GETTING IN ON THE ACT AS WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND ON THE HIGHER END FOR HIGHS. /DL/ LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK)...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW ONE INCH. BY TUESDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ENOUGH TO KEEP RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK IF WINDS EMANATE FROM A MORE INLAND TRAJECTORY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE DROUGHT TO ONLY WORSEN WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAIN ANY TIME SOON. THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDE DAILY TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. /EC/ && .AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. /19/ && .FIRE WEATHER...DANGEROUS FIRE WX CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST TODAY WITH RH'S RANGING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY, THERE HAVE STILL BEEN GUSTS OF 20-25 KT. MODIS FIRE DETECTION WAS ALREADY PINGING A FEW FIRES ACROSS THE AREA AND LATEST RADAR ALSO APPEARED TO DETECT FIRES IN COVINGTON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD SLACK OFF JUST A BIT MORE. BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE AREA FORESTRY AGENCIES, NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THANKS MEG/MOB/LIX FOR COORDINATION. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 42 73 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 MERIDIAN 39 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 VICKSBURG 41 75 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 HATTIESBURG 43 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0 NATCHEZ 46 75 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 GREENVILLE 41 73 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 GREENWOOD 38 71 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075. && $$ DL/19/EC