FXHW60 PHFO 282028 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1025 AM HST THU NOV 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT TODAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS...TURNING OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...BRINGING A THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS TO THOSE ISLANDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND 1153Z MODIS PASS SHOWED THE AIRMASS WAS ON THE DRY SIDE OF NORMAL OVER THE STATE...ALONG WITH A CAPPING INVERSION SLOPING FROM NEAR 5500 FEET NEAR PHLI TO 7000 FEET NEAR PHTO. EXPECTING PLENTY OF AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OWING TO THE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NATURE OF THE CURRENT AIRMASS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ON THE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE LEE OF MOLOKAI AND PUSH NW TOWARD OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THE BACKGROUND FLOW FROM THE SE WILL BRING VOG UP OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS STARTING TODAY...AND THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO FRI. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...AND THE INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS WILL HELP TO DISPERSE THE VOG SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL START TO FORM IN THE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ZONES TO THE LEE OF THE ISLANDS...AS WELL AS IN ANY PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE UP OVER THE WESTERN MAIN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO FRI. STARTING LATER FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC SCALE CONVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR BEGINNING TO NUDGE IN FROM THE W. AS WAS DISCUSSED OVERNIGHT...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SO WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BACK OFF ON THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OAHU...BUT THIS STILL LOOKS OK FOR KAUAI. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WEAKENS AT FIRST AFTER IT ARRIVES...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAVEGEM ALL SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE...SHOWING THE STALLED FRONT BEING REINVIGORATED BY A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE NW OF THE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY WITH A SIZABLE NORTH TO SOUTH BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND KAUAI AND OAHU. THIS SCENARIO HAS NOT BACKED OFF MUCH IN THE 12Z RUNS...AND SO ALTHOUGH THIS HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR KAUAI AND POSSIBLY OAHU NOW LOOKS TO START LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ENVISIONED...IT MIGHT STILL PAN OUT. LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT NECESSITATE WAITING A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE GUIDANCE TO LOCK IN BEFORE ISSUING A WATCH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH OF A THREAT AT ALL TO MAUI COUNTY OR THE BIG ISLAND AT THIS POINT. THE MODEL SHOW A HEALTHY DOSE OF KONA WINDS AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT SURFACE BACKGROUND FLOW. THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON THE N SHORE OF KAUAI AND 30-35 KT ON OAHU STARTING FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED THE WIND GUST GRIDS IN THESE AREAS TO BE CLOSER TO THESE VALUES. LOOKS A BIT SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE SPOTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVES AWAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REBUILDS NEAR THE ISLANDS AND SO EXPECTING THINGS TO STABILIZE DURING THAT TIME. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW. CLOUDS WILL BUILD UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. NO AIRMETS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. && .MARINE... THE LARGE 310 DEGREE SWELL JUST ARRIVED AT BUOY 51101 AS OF 20Z. SURF IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER END OF SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME SPOTS FOR N AND W FACING SHORES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA NEAR KAUAI IN ANTICIPATION OF SEAS AT THE 10 FT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. WILL WATCH THE BUOY CAREFULLY TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO EITHER ADVISORY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KONA WINDS WILL APPROACH THE 25 KT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY WINDY AREAS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...PARTICULARLY IN THE KAULAKAHI CHANNEL. EVEN THOUGH THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND/EXTEND THE SCA TO COVER THESE AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF KONA WINDS AND LINGERING NW SWELL WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR N AND W FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...AND OAHU...AND FOR N FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI. && $$ R BALLARD...DISCUSSION/MARINE M BALLARD...AVIATION  FXHW60 PHFO 290150 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 350 PM HST THU NOV 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP FAIR SKIES LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE ISLANDS...TURNING OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY AND BRINGING AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...BRINGING A THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS TO THOSE ISLANDS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION... THE BACKGROUND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS HAS ALREADY TURNED SSE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND SE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THE 00Z PHLI SOUNDING SHOWS THE MID-LEVELS ALREADY BEGINNING TO COOL AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STARTING TO LIFT AND WEAKEN. NEVERTHELESS... THE LATEST MODIS PASS SHOWS THE AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PW RANGING FROM 0.75-1 INCH...SO ALL 4 RADARS ARE VIRTUALLY PPINE THIS HOUR. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 400 MILES TO THE NW OF KAUAI WILL GET AN EASTWARD NUDGE TOWARD THE ISLANDS AS A LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SHARP TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARD...SPREADING INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL HELP TO SPARK SOME HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS BOTH ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS. THE TIMING ON THIS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR KAUAI. INITIALLY THE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. STARTING LATER SAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOW ENOUGH SO THAT THE KONA WINDS AHEAD OF IT BEGIN TO TAP INTO DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ AND SURGE IT NORTH ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...A SECONDARY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS SAT NIGHT...WITH NEW DEEP CONVECTION BLOWING UP OVER THE ISLANDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE GARDEN ISLE...THOUGH IF THE FRONT SURGES FARTHER TO THE E THAN EXPECTED...THEN OAHU MIGHT SEE HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS SAT OR SUN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR KAUAI...BUT MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT LATER TO OAHU. THE REMAINING ISLANDS SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS...BUT WILL BE LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LOW. THE MODEL SHOW A HEALTHY DOSE OF KONA WINDS AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PICKING UP TO 15-20 KT SURFACE BACKGROUND FLOW. THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS 925 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KT IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS ON THE N SHORE OF KAUAI AND 30-35 KT ON OAHU STARTING FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED WIND GUST GRIDS EARLIER IN THESE AREAS TO BE CLOSER TO THESE VALUES. LOOKS A BIT SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THOSE SPOTS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. ONE GOOD THING IS THAT THE STRONGER KONA WINDS WILL HELP KEEP THE VOG FROM BECOMING TOO CONCENTRATED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HELPING TO SUPPORT THE FRONT MOVES AWAY. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING REBUILDS NEAR THE ISLANDS AND SO EXPECTING THINGS TO STABILIZE DURING THAT TIME. && AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LIGHT SE FLOW. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOME OVER KAUAI AND OAHU TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED MVFR AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. NO AIRMETS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. && .MARINE... SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT BUOY 51101 HAS RISEN TO 11 FEET. SURF AND SEAS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY TONIGHT. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ON N AND W FACING SHORES...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ IN WATERS EXPOSED TO THE LARGE NW SWELL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS SUCH AS THE KAULAKAHI CHANNEL DUE TO THE INCREASING KONA WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF KONA WINDS AND LINGERING NW SWELL WILL MAKE FOR ROUGH AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY- WINDWARD HALEAKALA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS. && $$ R BALLARD...DISCUSSION/MARINE M BALLARD...AVIATION  FXHW60 PHFO 112002 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1002 AM HST TUE FEB 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARBY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PERSISTENT VOG. THE RIDGE WILL RESTRENGTHEN FRIDAY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...ALLOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO BUILD IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND TURN SOUTHEAST. && .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE UNDERNEATH THE INFLUENCE OF A NEARBY COL...OR WEAKNESS IN BOTH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BACKGROUND FLOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE LATEST MODIS TPW IMAGE SHOWS A GRADIENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...AND INCREASING MOISTURE TOWARD KAUAI. THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT AM SUNSHINE WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE 12Z PHLI SOUNDING PW OF 1.79 INCHES WAS INFLUENCED BY RAIN AND IS NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE...AS THE GPS-MET SENSOR AT PHNL IS SHOWING ABOUT 1.1 INCH OF PW WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODIS. ALSO...AMDAR DATA IS SHOWING A QUASI-ISOTHERMAL LAYER BETWEEN 800-900 MB SO ANY SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD NOT BE TOO HEFTY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY N OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE ISLANDS IN A WEAK FLOW REGIME. EXPECTING A CYCLE OF NIGHTTIME CLEARING WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND HIT OR MISS SHOWERS...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER. ON FRIDAY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH N AND STRENGTHENED ENOUGH TO RETURN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE STATE. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WEST END OF THE STATE...THE TRADES WILL BE ON THE WETTER SIDE FOR KAUAI AND OAHU... LESS SO AS YOU HEAD TOWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SHOULD DEFINITIVELY CLEAR THE VOG AWAY FROM THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS 500-600 MILES WEST OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND NEAR 21N170W. THIS LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. MODERATE TRADES ON SATURDAY WILL SHIFT TO ESE ON SUNDAY AND WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR INTERIOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN ISLANDS AGAIN SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... VFR COND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII TODAY. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN CLOUD BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CLEARING OUT TONIGHT. ISOL MTN OBSC AND MVFR CIGS MAY OCCUR WITH THE CLOUD BUILD UPS OVER ISLAND INTERIORS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CRITERIA UNTIL AT LEAST FRI. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE STRENGTHENING TRADES COULD BE ENOUGH TO RETURN SCA WINDS TO SOME SPOTS ON FRIDAY...MAINLY NEAR KAUAI...BUT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS. A SERIES OF SMALL TO MODERATE N AND NW SWELLS THIS WEEK SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SURF ADVISORY LEVELS. A RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED FETCH OF LOW-END GALE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SEND A SLIGHTLY LARGER BUMP TO OUR N SHORES ON FRI. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD AVIATION...FOSTER  FXHW60 PHFO 221358 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 358 AM HST SAT MAR 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN TRADE WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TAKE OVER STATEWIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .DISCUSSION... AN 1142Z MODIS PASS SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS...AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO A JET STREAK TO OUR NE...IS KEEPING MAINLY THE BIG ISLAND IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE BIG ISLAND INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE COULD BRIEFLY SPREAD TO OAHU THIS WEEKEND...SO RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED A BIT PRIMARILY FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS. THE AIRMASS WILL DEFINITIVELY STABILIZE AND DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN TO DRIER TRADEWIND WEATHER STATEWIDE WITH QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG 31N WILL SHIFT S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A NEW HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE W. THE TRADES WILL RELAX JUST A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEW HIGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS MON NIGHT...WHEN WE EXPECT A BUMP IN THE TRADES ONCE AGAIN. && AVIATION... AIRMET SIERRA CONTINUES FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC FOR MOLOKAI...LANAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO CLD AND SHRA. TEMPO MTN OBSC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. COULD SEE MORE AREAS OF LOCAL MTN OBSC SHOW UP ON SATURDAY FROM LOCAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE SHRA/+TSRA OVER THE BIG ISLAND. AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON KAUAI AND OAHU...AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. && .MARINE... THE BUOYS AT WAIMEA AND HANALEI SUGGEST THAT THE NW SWELL IS STILL LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME ADVISORY LEVEL SURF. THUS WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY A LITTLE LONGER...THROUGH 10 AM. THE MORNING SURF OBSERVATIONS WILL HELP TO DETERMINE WHETHER IT NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS TODAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL RELAX ENOUGH TO ALLOW IT TO BE DROPPED THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEW HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE N. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM HST THIS MORNING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY- PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. && $$ R BALLARD