FXUS63 KGRR 241656 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1156 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 LATEST UPDATE... UPDATE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 A PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES THAT COULD APPROACH RECORD COLD TERRITORY FOR LOWS AND MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES ON A COUPLE OF OCCASIONS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMING IN OVER THE LIMITED ICE COVERED LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN OVER MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT LOOKS LIMITED HOWEVER. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THINGS ARE ON TRACK. FAIRLY STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS ONGOING WITH DELTA T/S BETWEEN THE LAKE SURFACE AND 850MB/S ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 17 DEGREES C. MOISTURE PER OUR VAD WIND PROFILE IS UP THROUGH ABOUT 5000FT SO RIGHT ABOUT AVERAGE FOR LAKE SNOWS. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TRACE AMOUNTS INLAND TOWARDS U.S. 127 TO A HALF INCH OR SO IN SPOTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 131. FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TONIGHT AND ITS ASSOCIATED BOOST IN MOISTURE AND LIFT. ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL FINE TUNE THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. ON A SIDE NOTE IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE MODIS SAT PIC FROM TODAY AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THIN ICE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH PART OF THE LAKE AND UP THE WESTERN SHORE TOWARDS MILWAUKEE. THIS WILL HAVE SOME AFFECT ON FETCH LENGTH IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW. OBVIOUSLY THE LAKE IS MUCH MORE OPEN THAN IT WAS A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE MODIS PASSES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 1710Z TODAY OR IN ABOUT 15 MINS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST IS ON DETERMINING LAKE EFFECT TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FCST WILL FEATURE FAIRLY HIGH PCPN CHCS FOR THE FAVORED AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THESE HIGH CHCS TO YIELD LOW AMOUNTS OF MEASURABLE PCPN WITH SOME EMBEDDED ENHANCED TIME FRAMES. LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FINALLY GOT GOING ACROSS THE CWFA LAST EVENING. IT TOOK THE UPPER JET CORE DIVING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS ALOFT COOLING OFF ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE LAKE EFFECT. THE LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH BETTER LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF LOWER MI. WE EXPECT THE SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AND INCREASE A LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WE WILL SEE TEMPS ALOFT DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO C...ONLY ADDING TO THE INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH THE JET CORE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...INVERSION HTS ARE RELATIVELY LOW AROUND 5K FT OR SO. LIMITING FACTORS FOR LAKE EFFECT TODAY ARE WEAK CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE. WE WILL SEE A WEAKENING TREND OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE JET CORE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING WAVE. THE BEST PERIOD FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE INVERSION HTS ABOVE 10K FT LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUE. WE WILL HAVE THE MOISTURE IN THAT LAYER TO ASSIST IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC LIFT. THE AREA OF FOCUS WILL BE THE WNW FLOW FAVORED AREAS. AGAIN...THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK SO WE DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT TO FALL. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS WE SEE COLDER AIR START TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO ALMOST -25C TO -28C BY 12Z WED. INVERSION HTS WILL COME DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE FROM LATE TONIGHT/TUE...HOWEVER THE UPPER JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO WED AT 12Z WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL FAVORABLE. THE FLOW WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST ON TUE AND SHIFT TO THE NW TUE EVENING. WE ACTUALLY SEE SOME BETTER CONVERGENCE START TO SHOW UP TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE SW WITH THE NW FLOW. THE PROBLEM BECOMES THAT THE DGZ BECOMES SO LOW WITH THE ARCTIC AIR...THAT FLAKE SIZE WILL BECOME QUITE SMALL. THIS WILL BECOME THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR AT THAT TIME. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON WED...HOWEVER WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO BECOME EVEN MORE LIMITED. EVEN WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE REGION AT THAT TIME...THE FLOW ALOFT ACTUALLY BECOMES SOMEWHAT ANTI-CYCLONIC AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF THE CWFA. INVERSION HTS WILL LOWER DOWN TO AROUND 2-3K FT WITH A DGZ THAT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AND BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER. WED WILL BE OUR COLDEST DAY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. OUR RECORD MINIMUM HIGH IS 10 DEGREES IN GRR WHICH COULD BE IN JEOPARDY. THE RECORD MINIMUM HIGH FOR LAN IS 7 ABOVE, AND 12 ABOVE FOR MKG COULD ALSO BE IN JEOPARDY OF BEING BROKEN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 BITTER COLD WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH RECORD COLD POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS BOTH THE EURO AND GFS AGREE IN BRINGING IN MINUS 25C AT 850 MB. THE SFC HIGH IS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND SKIES COULD CLEAR...ALLOWING MINS TO PLUNGE WELL BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE. THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST PERIOD RELATIVE TO NORMAL OF THE ENTIRE WINTER. NO BIG STORMS ARE IN THE OFFING BUT LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY THE ARCTIC FRONT. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW APPARENTLY REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THIS USHERS IN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH WHICH SHOULD BRING SUBZERO READINGS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 643 AM EST MON FEB 24 2014 LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TODAY AROUND WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 317 PM EST SUN FEB 23 2014 BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY STABLE. INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND LESS CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME LESSENING OF THE SNOW/ICE PACK...BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO EXISTING SNOW/ICE PACK OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DUKE SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...OSTUNO HYDROLOGY...MACZKO  FXUS63 KGRR 140819 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO THE MID 30S BY THE WEEKEND BEFORE TURNING COLDER NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 FORECAST CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEITHER FRONT WILL BRING ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOW WITH IT. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS ENCROACHING ON THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE PRODUCED SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM LAKE ERIE AND THOSE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. ADDITIONALLY WINDS HAVE BECOME SWLY OVER WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THAT HAS PUSHED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SIDE OF THE LAKE TO THE WESTERN CWA. FLURRIES AND EVEN A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CWA... OUT OF THESE CLOUD LAYERS TODAY. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER AFTER WHICH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 20S FRIDAY. BUFKIT RH PROFILES REVEAL A VERY SHALLOW LAYER WITH NOT MUCH LIFT WITHIN IT. THUS NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BUT DRY WEATHER. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 NO BIG STORMS IN THE EXTENDED BUT A COUPLE CLIPPERS WILL BRING SOME SNOW FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FIRST CLIPPER ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SFC LOW CENTER PASSES WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN SO ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT. KEPT IT ALL SNOW FOR NOW BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SOME MIX WITH RAIN IS POSSIBLE. COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EVENING. SFC RIDGING SHOULD BRING FAIR AND COLD WEATHER MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT THEN ANOTHER CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2015 PATCHY IFR HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. ONE AREA WAS SOUTHEAST KJXN...AND TRACKING NORTHWEST. THUS I FEATURED THE IFR THERE FIRST. ELSEWHERE THE FORECAST LOOKS MORE CHALLENGING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS. STILL ENOUGH POTENTIAL THERE TO INCLUDE KBTL IN THE IFR RANGE...WITH KAZO EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE LOW CLOUDS. AVIATORS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST CONDITIONS IF FLYING TONIGHT. CLOUDS OVER LAKE MI...WILL LIKELY CLIP KMKG BY 12Z...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL REACH KGRR AND KLAN EXISTS. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 319 AM EST WED JAN 14 2015 MODIS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM TUESDAY REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE NSH TO BE COVERED IN ICE. WHAT WAVES EXIST IN OPEN AREAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA CRITERIA. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1114 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2015 WE WILL BE CONTINUING THE ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR SCOTTVILLE AND SMYRNA TODAY. THESE LOCATIONS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS BUT THE GOOD NEWS HERE IS THAT BOTH LOOK TO HAVE STABILIZED. SMYRNA HAS SLIGHTLY FALLEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE SCOTTVILLE HAS LEVELED OFF. THIS MAY BE A SIGNAL THAT SCOTTVILLE MAY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LEVEL AND POSSIBLY BEGIN A SLOW FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE BEGINNING A GRADUAL UPWARD CLIMB THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY TOUCH 40 BY SATURDAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO MELT SOME OF THE ICE BUILD UP. THIS LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLDER AIR IS POISED TO MOVE BACK IN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE RECENT STABILITY IN RIVERS IS A GOOD SIGN...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS FOR ANY FLUCTUATION AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...93 SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...MJS HYDROLOGY...JAM MARINE...93  FXUS63 KGRR 021927 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 LATEST UPDATE... SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 THE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER QUIET FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL MAX OUT IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY. THIS CHANCE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT THAT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA BEFORE WASHING OUT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME NEXT WEEK LATE ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 THE ONLY CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS DETERMINING PCPN CHCS FOR SAT AS A FRONT THAT WILL BE WASHING OUT MOVES OVERHEAD. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAS DEVELOPED CUMULUS ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. THIS CUMULUS IS MIXING OUT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT IS MIXING DOWN...AND WE EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. WE WILL SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...SUPPORTING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC MOVING OVERHEAD. A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN THE DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE HEIGHTS BUILD. THE ONLY CHC OF RAIN WILL COME ACROSS THE NRN THIRD INLAND PORTION OF THE CWFA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE BY NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE U.P. AND TIP OF THE MITT ON SAT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL TRY TO DROP IN THE AREA...BUT WILL BE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING ISOLATED PCPN UP NORTH AS THE WEAKENING FRONT ENCOUNTERS SOME SLIGHT DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THE SHORELINE WILL LIKELY BE STABLE ENOUGH WITH A WIND OFF OF THE LAKE TO KEEP THEM DRY. WE WILL DRY OUT ENTIRELY THEN SAT NIGHT AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND AS A LONGER WAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND REMAIN INTO THE LONG TERM. WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT...TEMPS WILL ONLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND ONLY WARM AIR ADVECTION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 I AM BEGINNING TO BELIEVE THIS COMING WEEK WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST WEEK OF THE SUMMER SO FAR (NOT HARD TO DO GIVEN HOW COLD IT HAS BEEN). THERE IS STILL THE COLD FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THAT FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS I WAS THINKING EARLIER SINCE THE REALLY COLD AIR IS DELAYED BEHIND A SECOND UPPER AIR SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL NOT GET TO MICHIGAN UNTIL BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WE STILL HAVE OUR REX BLOCK OVER THE AREA NEAR THE BERING SEA AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH HAS MOVED INLAND TO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. IT IS THAT SYSTEM THAT BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. HERE IS THE ISSUE THROUGH...THERE IS A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT DIVES SOUTH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THAT DIGS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH... OVER MOST OF CANADA (CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY) SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WESTERN CANADA. THAT IN TURN INCREASED THE UPPER AIR HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN WEAKENS THE FRONT...STALLING IT JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN. THE REAL COLD AIR BEING TRAPPED NORTH OF THE POLAR JET...WHICH NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR NORTH OF 50N. THIS WILL CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK OR EARLY IN FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT UNTIL THEN... WE WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN TURN WE GET TO HAVE MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES. THE BOTTOM LINE TO THIS IS THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS LOWER TO ME EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY WEATHER (EXCEPT FOR AROUND 18 HOURS LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY). I INCREASED THE FORECAST HIGHS TO THE MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. I AM THINKING WE MAY SEE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT I WENT CONVECTIVE YET THERE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 EXPECT VFR CEILINGS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A LARGELY EASTERLY WIND. TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. I DO NOT THINK FOG SHOULD BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS THERE IS TOO MUCH MIXING DUE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MARINE HEADLINES BEING NEEDED FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SOME SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS AND WAVES REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND A DIURNAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO BELOW 15 KNOTS...AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT INCREASE IN WIND LOOKS TO OCCUR ON MON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE APPROACHING AT THAT TIME. ON ANOTHER NOTE...SOME UPWELLING HAS OCCURRED AT THE SHORELINE WITH THE NNE WINDS OVER THE LAST DAY. SOME WATER TEMPS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE SHORE PER LATEST WATER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SITES ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 THE KALAMAZOO RIVER NEAR COMSTOCK AND NEW RICHMOND IS FALLING BELOW BANKFULL THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRAND RIVER AT IONIA AND SYCAMORE CREEK NEAR HOLT ARE THE ONLY RIVERS THAT REMAIN ABOVE BANKFULL... AND LEVELS AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE FALLING. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON INDEPENDENCE DAY... WEATHER WILL STAY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ SHORT TERM...NJJ LONG TERM...WDM AVIATION...WDM HYDROLOGY...CAS MARINE...NJJ  FXUS63 KGRR 230830 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 - Strong and Damaging winds likely on Sunday - Burst of lake effect snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday night - Chance for thunderstorms this evening - Small chances for some freezing rain this morning - Large waves and high water levels on Lake Michigan (see marine section) && .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Friday) Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 A strong low pressure system will move through the state of Michigan over the course of the next 24 to 36 hours. The low will reach depths rival some of the deepest lows to move through our area. By Sunday evening the low will be northeast of Sault Ste. Marie at a depth of around 971 MB's. This is rival any of the deeper lows of historic fall storms like the 1998 storm, the Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of 1940. Of note is the fact that a 1040 mb high will be in place over the plains states which will create a very strong pressure gradient over the Great Lakes. A very strong rise fall surface pressure couplet will swing across the forecast area, with the ECMWF showing 6 hr pressure rises to our northeast in excess of 20mb's. Bottom line, we have strong winds coming on Sunday. They should sweep in right around daybreak and peak through the course of the day. The strongest winds will occur between 700am and 700pm, but strong winds will continue into Sunday night as well. At this point based on coordination with APX, DTX and IWX have decided to continue with the going watch. Decisions on the watch transitioning into warnings or advisories will occur on the day shift today. We do believe the biggest impacts will come from the wind however, in terms of downed trees and tree limbs falling onto power lines. Power outages can be expected. In terms of winter impacts, it appears snowfall totals are going to be on the lighter side. Lake effect snow is expected to develop Sunday afternoon lasting into Sunday night. The deepest moisture will be across Central Lower Michigan, where our highest snowfall totals will occur. We will likely see 1-3, maybe 4 inches across interior portions of Central Lower, tapering to an inch or less elsewhere across the area. There will be some periods of whiteouts up towards Big Rapids, Baldwin and Evart Sunday evening. For the most part though this looks to be a wind producer. We are expecting winds to increase into the 25-40 mph range with gusts of 50-60 mph. The highest gusts will likely occur towards Lake Michigan. We have a chance of thunderstorms this evening into the overnight hours ahead of the cold front. 900pm to 400am will be the time frame when we may see a storm or two embedded in a larger rain shield. We are not expecting severe storms, but with a 50-60 knot low level jet a few damaging wind gusts are not out of the question tonight. We cannot rule out a little bit of freezing rain this morning, especially across Central Lower Michigan. Model consensus continues to show a small chance but amounts have trended down with each run. The ECMWF would indicate that the threat is minimal with temps above freezing area wide by noon. Otherwise, the flow turns zonal for the remainder of the forecast period with some discrepancies between the ECMWF and the GFS. The GFS has a couple of systems (Tues/Wed and Fri) next week, whereas the ECWMF is fairly quiet. We will likely keep colder air in place at least into mid week behind the this weekend's system. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1248 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Impacts for aviation interests will be initially limited with VFR conditions ruling. We will see a steady deterioration in conditions after 16z-18z and through the end of the period. This worsening trend will be the result of the storm system to our SW approaching the area and bringing plenty of low level moisture and shower activity. We expect to start going IFR after 18z and beyond. We are also bringing thunder into all the terminals, likely after 00z when the better elevated instability moves overhead. Winds will also increase, but should not be too bad by the end of the period with gusts up around 25 to 30 knots. An increase in gusts will be possible right after this forecast period with the front. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 With storm force winds out on the lake, waves will reach large heights on Sunday. Waves of 12 to 18 feet are likely. I would not be surprised to see a few of the peak waves hit 20 feet towards Sunday evening. Water levels are higher than normal already and with a sustained westerly wind we may see some lakeshore flooding. The flooding potential is two fold. First, we may see some flooding into port towns, as water is forced through the pier heads and into town. The high water levels from current levels + the storm rise, will combine with rollers coming down the channels which could lead to some flooding. The second concern is where shore ice is lower or limited. Large waves will be able to carry some force to the beach in these areas and create erosion at the toe of the dune. Yesterday's MODIS satellite shot showed some ice up and down the shore, but it not wide. Ice in the open waters will be tore up quickly by the wave action. Any headline issuance will be considered on the dayshift. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 A significant warmup as well as rainfall expected this weekend will start the process of river levels rising again. Anytime we think about rapid warmups and rainfall this time of year leads to the logical question about flooding potential. The good news is that at this point it looks like the rain totals will be low enough and the warmup will be brief enough to avoid widespread and significant flooding across our area over the next week. However, significant rises are very likely on virtually all of our rivers, and by the first half of next week many of our rivers will again be near bankfull. We will keep a close eye on forecast trends, but right now it looks like our rivers should escape without major issues. The one fly in the ointment is the renewed threat of ice jams on some of our rivers. The last big rise on our rivers a few weeks ago destroyed a lot of the river ice, which will now work to our advantage (you can't have an ice jam without ice). Limited amounts of new ice have formed on parts of the rivers, but most of our rivers remain mostly ice-free at this time. However, there are some rivers that still have solid ice covering them, including parts of the Grand River (Portland, Grand Rapids area, and Eastmanville/Robinson Township). These areas will be the focus for potential ice jam formation over the next week, and should be watched closely. Once the upcoming warm and windy weather passes, temperatures will again plunge for next week, which will limit additional snowmelt and start to give the rivers a chance to recover from all the new water. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duke DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Duke HYDROLOGY...AMD  FXUS63 KGRR 240834 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 LATEST UPDATE... Synopsis/Discussion/Marine .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 - Widespread strong and damaging winds expected today. - Winter weather concerns this afternoon and tonight, with Blizzard conditions possible across Central Lower MI. - Turning colder tonight through Tuesday which is a concern for those that will lose power, which is likely to be many. && .DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday) Issued at 330 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 The storm remains on track in the latest model runs and no big changes were made to the forecast. The depth and track of the low have been very consistent. Strong and damaging winds are almost certain today with gusts in the middle of the night across portions of MO and IL to in excess of 60 mph, and the low will only continue to deepen today as it works northeast through the area. A concern is the fact that this low will move on a track closer to our area than the 1998 Fall Storm, the Fitzgerald Storm of 1975 or the Armistice Day storm of 1940. All of those systems tracked further west across Wisconsin. This storm will move across Lake Michigan today which will put the rise/fall pressure couplet and therefore the strongest winds right through our area. Model cross sections in BUFKIT continue to show mixing depths tapping 65 knots around 4,000ft. Winds in excess of 50 mph are a certainty, with 60 mph likely and even higher values possible. We are looking at widespread power outages some of which that will likely last days. This is especially a concern with temperatures crashing into the teens tonight and remaining there Monday. The strong winds will reach the far south around daybreak this morning sweeping northeast through the day. By mid afternoon the entire area will be experiencing high winds. The worst of the winds look to occur from around noon through midnight tonight. As for the snow side of this system, we should flip precipitation over to snow as we head toward midday. Lake effect will commence later in the day as the cold air really pours in. Some model guidance like the NAM is showing higher totals than we are forecasting and may be the odd model out. The ECMWF and GFS remain consistent with an inch or two possible in most areas and 3-5 inches across portions of Central Lower Michigan. Have no issue with the Blizzard warning given the strength of the wind and accumulating snows. The worst of the blizzard conditions are likely this afternoon and especially this evening for places like Baldwin, Evart and Big Rapids. The snow will taper off overnight into Monday morning and the winds will finally begin to ease up some. Two systems will affect longer range in the forecast, one on Tues/Wed and another on Fri/Sat. The late in the week system is trending stronger and could bring some additional accumulating snow. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1256 AM EST Sun Feb 24 2019 Very active period coming up for aviation interests over the next 24 hours. The first set of impacts this morning are LIFR-VLIFR conditions with low clouds/rain/fog in place over the area, and some thunder to go with it. This will all linger through much of the night, except the thunder which should be out of the area by 10z or so. Winds will switch direction with the front coming through, and start to increase a bit. Cigs and vsbys may improve a little, but plenty of IFR expected to hold in. Rain showers will change to snow showers, and winds will increase markedly by late morning. Wind gusts around and possibly over 50 knots are expected by 17z. Snow showers will be going on, and the wind will blow the falling snow. Drifting snow does not look likely until later with temps above freezing for a bit. Blowing and drifting will become more of a problem for the western sites with lingering snow and lake effect. Wind gusts will remain up through most of the remainder of the forecast, with maybe a slight improvement right at the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 Very strong low pressure will move through the Great Lakes over the next 24 hours, creating winds in of 50-60 mph out on Lake Michigan. Sustained winds of this magnitude do not occur very often. And it has been quite some time since we have seen this type of wind, for the length of time that we will have it with high water levels. Water levels were on the low side of normal on Lake Michigan from roughly 1999 through 2013. So, we have not seen a storm/higher water level combination like this probably since the November 1998 fall storm. Keep in mind that a water level rise will occur on our side of the lake due to the strong push of west winds. Rises may be on the order of a couple of feet above the already higher than normal water levels. Our concerns at the shoreline and in river mouths are multiple. First, we may see flooding in river mouths where water will be forced between the pierheads and down the channels into towns. Large rolling waves will be sweeping down the river channels as well which will add to the issues. Second, shoreline ice based on a MODIS satellite image from two days ago is not continuous. So, in areas where there is no ice or limited ice the waves will be able to carry their power to the beach and the dunes. The toe of the dune (the base) may become unstable and allow the dune face to slump or slide down into the water. Persons with shoreline interests should be aware of this threat. Finally, what ice is in place will be moved around by the large waves and we could see ice crashing into the shoreline in spots where it can become mobile. As for wave heights, the November 1998 storm had a peak wave at the Southern Lake Michigan buoy of 20 feet. This storm looks to be no different as the WaveWatch3 and the GLERL model are both indicating peak waves occurring between Grand Haven and South Haven between 19 and 20 feet around 700pm. Stay away from the shoreline as water will likely be pushed into places you have not seen it before. Pier decks will be completely swamped by waves of this magnitude. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 A significant warmup as well as rainfall expected this weekend will start the process of river levels rising again. Anytime we think about rapid warmups and rainfall this time of year leads to the logical question about flooding potential. The good news is that at this point it looks like the rain totals will be low enough and the warmup will be brief enough to avoid widespread and significant flooding across our area over the next week. However, significant rises are very likely on virtually all of our rivers, and by the first half of next week many of our rivers will again be near bankfull. We will keep a close eye on forecast trends, but right now it looks like our rivers should escape without major issues. The one fly in the ointment is the renewed threat of ice jams on some of our rivers. The last big rise on our rivers a few weeks ago destroyed a lot of the river ice, which will now work to our advantage (you can't have an ice jam without ice). Limited amounts of new ice have formed on parts of the rivers, but most of our rivers remain mostly ice-free at this time. However, there are some rivers that still have solid ice covering them, including parts of the Grand River (Portland, Grand Rapids area, and Eastmanville/Robinson Township). These areas will be the focus for potential ice jam formation over the next week, and should be watched closely. Once the upcoming warm and windy weather passes, temperatures will again plunge for next week, which will limit additional snowmelt and start to give the rivers a chance to recover from all the new water. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday for MIZ037>040-043>045. Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM Monday morning for MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Duke DISCUSSION...Duke AVIATION...NJJ MARINE...Duke HYDROLOGY...AMD/63