FXUS63 KGRB 271955 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 255 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS...DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. PRETTY TYPICAL UPPER PATTERN FOR LATE SUMMER...WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES PULLED WAY N ACRS SRN CANADA. UPR RIDGE OUT NR THE WEST COAST WL BUILD/EXPAND EWD ACRS THE AREA DURING THE WEEK. NOT GETTING A REAL CLEAR PICTURE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AND BEYOND...BUT IT SEEMS LIKELY WESTERLIES WL SAG SWD INTO THE CONUS AGAIN...WITH LNGWV TROF POSSIBLY TRYING TO GET RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE E. THE PATTERN WL BE A VERY WARM AND DRY ONE FOR MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE PROSPECT FOR SIG PCPN. PCPN CHCS MAY START TO INCR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS COOL FRONT SAGS SWD INTO THE AREA...THOUGH THAT DOES NOT REALLY HAVE THE LOOK OF A GOOD PCPN PRODUCER EITHER. && .SHORT TERM...TNGT/TUE. QUIET WX EXPECTED. SOME FG WL PROBABLY FORM AGAIN TNGT. BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING...AND THE DENSE FG WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO LOCALIZED FOG BANKS IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND NR STREAMS AND RIVERS. WL CARRY AS PATCHY FG IN THE FCST. CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS SUPPORTED TAKING TEMPS A LITTLE BLO THE LOWER GUID VALUES...ESP IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL COOL SPOTS. 850 MB TEMPS TUE WL BE SIMILAR TO TDA...SO STAYED CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE FOR MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WL BE THE LAKESHORE. SINCE WE WON/T MIX INTO NWLY FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...LAKE BREEZE WL WORK INLAND DURING THE AFTN. SO EDGED TEMPS DOWN LAKESIDE...ESP FM MTW- JUST N OF SUE WHERE MODIS STLT IMAGERY INDICATED LAKE SURFACE TEMPS HAD FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE TO UPWELLING. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GIVE WAY TO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS SEE NEW RECORD HIGHS ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND SINCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE. A COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS FALLING TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES DUE TO THE UNKNOWN PATH OF ISAAC. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACRS THE AREA NOW AND WL CONT INTO TNGT. STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MIFG TO FORM LATE TNGT. COVERAGE OF THE FG SHOULD NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS THIS MORNING...BUT VSBYS WL PROBABLY BE AFFECTED ENOUGH IN SOME AREAS TO WARRANT INCLUSION AS TEMPO GROUP IN RHI/CWA/GRB/AUW TAFS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SKOWRONSKI/MG  FXUS63 KGRB 240856 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 356 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND VERY MOIST TDA AND TNGT...THEN TURNING COLDER. LNGWV TROF OVER WRN NOAM WL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT E THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT WITH VERY BLOCKY PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATL...THE RIDGE OVER ERN NOAM WL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. THEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUE RIDGE WL BUILD NR THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE TROF/RIDGE COMBINATION OVER ERN NOAM BASICALLY EVOLVE INTO THE WRN LEG OF THE ATL BLOCK. WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA INTO THU...THEN TEMPS WL DROP BACK TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. STG COLD FRONT DRIVING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WL SUPPORT A SIG PCPN EVENT TNGT INTO THU...WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN AT MOST AFTER THAT. && .SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/THU. OVERALL...GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WL TWEAK THE POPS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING DYNAMICS...IT/S NOT AN AUTOMATIC THAT WE CAN DISMISS THE SVR THREAT JUST BECAUSE THIS IS LATE OCTOBER. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL WI FOR LATE THIS AFTN WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SVR POTENTIAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR. HODOGRAPH WAS SOMEWHAT LOOPED...THOUGH NOT AS SWEPT OUT AS IDEAL FOR TORNADIC STORMS. BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO BE A WORST- CASE OUTLIER. PROGGED SFC TEMPS WERE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO WARM. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS HAD WARMER TEMPS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE INSTABILITY. THAT CAP WAS TOTALLY ABSENT ON THE NAM. GIVEN SOME ISENT LIFT AND ADDED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTG INTO THE AREA...SOME CAPPING COULD BE OVERCOME. IT/S JUST NOT CLEAR IF THERE WL BE ENOUGH FORCING. PLUS...BACKING OF THE UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WL LIKELY CARRY CONVECTION THAT FIRES BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC NEWD MORE TOWARD N-C WI...WHERE THE ATM WON/T BE AS UNSTABLE. WL DETAIL CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE SVR RISK IN THE HWO. THE OVERALL SITN DESCRIBED ABV WL CONT INTO TNGT. STORMS WL SPREAD FARTHER N AND E OVERNIGHT. BUT THE ATM WL BE MORE STABLE THERE...SO SVR THREAT WL GENERALLY DECR TO THE N AND E...AND WITH TIME. STORMS MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO E-C WI UNTIL MID-DAY THU. CARRIED LOW POPS UP UNTIL THEN JUST IN CASE SOMETHING GETS GOING A LITTLE FARTHER E. SECOND SIG FCST ISSUE IS THE FG. DON/T QUITE HAVE THE WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBYS WE WERE EXPECTING. BUT STILL PLENTY OF OB SITES BLO 1SM. AND SINCE VSBYS TYPICALLY EDGE DOWN ARND DAYBREAK...WL LET THE ADVISORY RUN INTACT. LARGE SCALE ADVECTION WL DOMINATE TEMPERATURE CHGS THE NEXT 36 HRS. BUILT 3-HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BASED ON ROBUST BLEND OF GUID PRODUCTS...THEN TOOK MAX/MIN GRIDS FM THOSE. .LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NEXT TUE. MAIN FCST ISSUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPR TROF FROM THE NRN/ CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF TO AN UPR LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF TO BE LEFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WHICH WL PROVIDE COOL/DRY AIR TO NE WI. THE MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AND BRING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN AROUND TUE. SINCE THE CDFNT TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION THU EVENING...WL NEED TO LINGER POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE THING THAT WL GET PEOPLE'S ATTENTION BY FRI MORNING IS THE COOL TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS DROPO TO AROUND -5C BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S N-CNTRL WI...MID 30S E-CNTRL WI. AN AREA OF HI PRES OVER THE PLAINS IS FCST TO EDGE EWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TOWARD WI ON FRI. PLENTY OF CAA IN PLAY WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -8C RANGE. THIS COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD CREATE ENUF INSTABILITY (STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES) TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPEMENT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO DEVELOP...BUT MORE CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS TO BE MORE NOVEMBER-LIKE WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGS NORTH...GENERALLY LWR TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI NGT WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR ON NW WINDS. MOST OF NE WI SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE NIGHT WITH TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC MAY VEER ENUF TO THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY BRING LK EFFECT CLOUDS INTO N-CNTRL WI AS WELL AS ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE. EVEN WITH SOME LK CLOUDS AROUND...IT WL STILL BE A COOL NGT OVER NE WI WITH MIN TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE MID 20S N-CNTRL... MID TO UPR 20S CNTRL...TO THE MID 30S NEAR LK MI. MDLS CONT TO SHOW AS THE HI PRES FINALLY REACHES THE GREAT LKS...IT IS FCST TO START WEAKENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE DEVELOPING CNTRL CONUS LONGWAVE TROF. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGS BLO NORMAL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...THIS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO HAVE REACHED THE GREAT LKS WITH A PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI. TYPICALLY...THERE WOULD BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS NW FLOW...BUT THE MDLS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DO EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER NEARBY...HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY WITH TEMPS COMPERABLE TO SAT. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD SWD FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS SUNDAY NGT INTO MON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RDG SETS UP...WL NEED TO WATCH LK EFFECT ALONG LK MI AS WINDS COULD TURN N-NE. IF THIS LK EFFECT DOES NOT OCCUR...DO NOT SEE ANY OTHER FEATURE THAT COULD TRIGGER ANY PCPN AS THE NEXT PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF TO STILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND NEXT MON WITH REGARDS TO THE MDLS GETTING A HANDLE ON THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM 'SANDY'. IF THIS SYSTEM GETS PULLED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...IT WL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS INCLUDING THE SHORTWAVE/ACCOMPANIED CDFNT HEADED TOWARD WI MON NGT/TUE. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS INTO THE FCST AREA ALTHO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VSYBS NOT QUITE AS UNIFORMLY LOW AS EXPECTED...BUT STILL PRETTY MUCH IFR AND BLO ACRS THE AREA. WL PROBABLY GET FOG TO THICKEN SOME ARND DAYBREAK. CONDITONS SHOULD IMPROVE FM S-N DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH IT WL BE A SLOW PROCESS. && .MARINE...GLERL SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE ANALYSES AND MODIS STLT PASSES FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO INDICATED THAT COLDER WATER HAD UPWELLED JUST OFF THE KEWAUNEE/MANITOWOC COUNTY SHORELINE AREAS. WITH A SLY FLOW OF AIR WITH SFC DWPTS AOA 60F CONTG INTO THU... WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY...AT LEAST AT TIMES. SO WL RUN THE MARINE FG ADVISORY UNTIL THE SCHEDULED FROPA THU AFTN. SLY WINDS WL INCR TNGT. WAVES OVER THE LAKE SHOULD EASILY REACH SC.Y CRITERIA...AND WINDS MAY REACH AS WELL. WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THAT HEADLINE NOW TO KEEP FOCUS ON THE MORE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF THE DENSE FOG...BUT WL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED TO POST SC.Y. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005- 010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074. && $$ SKOWRONSKI/KALLAS  FXUS63 KGRB 241413 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 913 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012 .UPDATE... DENSE FOG WAS GRADUALLY RELEASING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE HEADLINE WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. TDH && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012... SYNOPSIS...WARM AND VERY MOIST TDA AND TNGT...THEN TURNING COLDER. LNGWV TROF OVER WRN NOAM WL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT E THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT WITH VERY BLOCKY PATTERN DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ATL...THE RIDGE OVER ERN NOAM WL SHARPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. THEN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUE RIDGE WL BUILD NR THE WEST COAST...WHILE THE TROF/RIDGE COMBINATION OVER ERN NOAM BASICALLY EVOLVE INTO THE WRN LEG OF THE ATL BLOCK. WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR WL REMAIN ACRS THE AREA INTO THU...THEN TEMPS WL DROP BACK TO A LITTLE BLO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. STG COLD FRONT DRIVING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WL SUPPORT A SIG PCPN EVENT TNGT INTO THU...WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN AT MOST AFTER THAT. SHORT TERM...TDA/TNGT/THU. OVERALL...GOING FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WL TWEAK THE POPS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INCOMING DYNAMICS...IT/S NOT AN AUTOMATIC THAT WE CAN DISMISS THE SVR THREAT JUST BECAUSE THIS IS LATE OCTOBER. THE NAM FCST SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL WI FOR LATE THIS AFTN WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF SVR POTENTIAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR. HODOGRAPH WAS SOMEWHAT LOOPED...THOUGH NOT AS SWEPT OUT AS IDEAL FOR TORNADIC STORMS. BUT THE NAM SOUNDINGS SEEMED TO BE A WORST- CASE OUTLIER. PROGGED SFC TEMPS WERE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO WARM. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE SREF MEMBERS HAD WARMER TEMPS IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE INSTABILITY. THAT CAP WAS TOTALLY ABSENT ON THE NAM. GIVEN SOME ISENT LIFT AND ADDED CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTG INTO THE AREA...SOME CAPPING COULD BE OVERCOME. IT/S JUST NOT CLEAR IF THERE WL BE ENOUGH FORCING. PLUS...BACKING OF THE UPR FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF WL LIKELY CARRY CONVECTION THAT FIRES BACK OVER THE FRONTAL SFC NEWD MORE TOWARD N-C WI...WHERE THE ATM WON/T BE AS UNSTABLE. WL DETAIL CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE SVR RISK IN THE HWO. THE OVERALL SITN DESCRIBED ABV WL CONT INTO TNGT. STORMS WL SPREAD FARTHER N AND E OVERNIGHT. BUT THE ATM WL BE MORE STABLE THERE...SO SVR THREAT WL GENERALLY DECR TO THE N AND E...AND WITH TIME. STORMS MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO E-C WI UNTIL MID-DAY THU. CARRIED LOW POPS UP UNTIL THEN JUST IN CASE SOMETHING GETS GOING A LITTLE FARTHER E. SECOND SIG FCST ISSUE IS THE FG. DON/T QUITE HAVE THE WIDESPREAD VERY LOW VSBYS WE WERE EXPECTING. BUT STILL PLENTY OF OB SITES BLO 1SM. AND SINCE VSBYS TYPICALLY EDGE DOWN ARND DAYBREAK...WL LET THE ADVISORY RUN INTACT. LARGE SCALE ADVECTION WL DOMINATE TEMPERATURE CHGS THE NEXT 36 HRS. BUILT 3-HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BASED ON ROBUST BLEND OF GUID PRODUCTS...THEN TOOK MAX/MIN GRIDS FM THOSE. LONG TERM...THU NGT THRU NEXT TUE. MAIN FCST ISSUE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF AN UPR TROF FROM THE NRN/ CNTRL PLAINS NEWD THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF TO AN UPR LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A BROAD LONGWAVE TROF TO BE LEFT ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WHICH WL PROVIDE COOL/DRY AIR TO NE WI. THE MEAN FLOW IS FCST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AND BRING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN AROUND TUE. SINCE THE CDFNT TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION THU EVENING...WL NEED TO LINGER POPS PRIMARILY IN THE EAST. THAT BEING SAID...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THU EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE THING THAT WL GET PEOPLE'S ATTENTION BY FRI MORNING IS THE COOL TEMPS AS 8H TEMPS DROPO TO AROUND -5C BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S N-CNTRL WI...MID 30S E-CNTRL WI. AN AREA OF HI PRES OVER THE PLAINS IS FCST TO EDGE EWD THRU THE UPR MIDWEST TOWARD WI ON FRI. PLENTY OF CAA IN PLAY WITH 8H TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -8C RANGE. THIS COOL AIR ALOFT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD CREATE ENUF INSTABILITY (STEEPENING MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES) TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPEMENT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO DEVELOP...BUT MORE CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS TO BE MORE NOVEMBER-LIKE WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGS NORTH...GENERALLY LWR TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. THE HI PRES IS FCST TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI NGT WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY AIR ON NW WINDS. MOST OF NE WI SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE NIGHT WITH TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC MAY VEER ENUF TO THE NORTH TO POSSIBLY BRING LK EFFECT CLOUDS INTO N-CNTRL WI AS WELL AS ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE. EVEN WITH SOME LK CLOUDS AROUND...IT WL STILL BE A COOL NGT OVER NE WI WITH MIN TEMPS SETTLING INTO THE MID 20S N-CNTRL... MID TO UPR 20S CNTRL...TO THE MID 30S NEAR LK MI. MDLS CONT TO SHOW AS THE HI PRES FINALLY REACHES THE GREAT LKS...IT IS FCST TO START WEAKENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THRU THE DEVELOPING CNTRL CONUS LONGWAVE TROF. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGS BLO NORMAL. BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY...THIS UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO HAVE REACHED THE GREAT LKS WITH A PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER WI. TYPICALLY...THERE WOULD BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THIS NW FLOW...BUT THE MDLS HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DO EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...BUT WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER NEARBY...HAVE KEPT SUNDAY DRY WITH TEMPS COMPERABLE TO SAT. ANOTHER AREA OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD SWD FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN GREAT LKS SUNDAY NGT INTO MON. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RDG SETS UP...WL NEED TO WATCH LK EFFECT ALONG LK MI AS WINDS COULD TURN N-NE. IF THIS LK EFFECT DOES NOT OCCUR...DO NOT SEE ANY OTHER FEATURE THAT COULD TRIGGER ANY PCPN AS THE NEXT PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROF TO STILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN BEYOND NEXT MON WITH REGARDS TO THE MDLS GETTING A HANDLE ON THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM 'SANDY'. IF THIS SYSTEM GETS PULLED TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...IT WL SLOW THE PROGRESS OF OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS INCLUDING THE SHORTWAVE/ACCOMPANIED CDFNT HEADED TOWARD WI MON NGT/TUE. FOR NOW...HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS INTO THE FCST AREA ALTHO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MARINE...GLERL SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURE ANALYSES AND MODIS STLT PASSES FM A COUPLE DAYS AGO INDICATED THAT COLDER WATER HAD UPWELLED JUST OFF THE KEWAUNEE/MANITOWOC COUNTY SHORELINE AREAS. WITH A SLY FLOW OF AIR WITH SFC DWPTS AOA 60F CONTG INTO THU... WOULD EXPECT DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE AND PORTIONS OF THE BAY...AT LEAST AT TIMES. SO WL RUN THE MARINE FG ADVISORY UNTIL THE SCHEDULED FROPA THU AFTN. SLY WINDS WL INCR TNGT. WAVES OVER THE LAKE SHOULD EASILY REACH SC.Y CRITERIA...AND WINDS MAY REACH AS WELL. WL HOLD OFF ON ADDING THAT HEADLINE NOW TO KEEP FOCUS ON THE MORE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF THE DENSE FOG...BUT WL PROBABLY EVENTUALLY NEED TO POST SC.Y. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. VSYBS NOT QUITE AS UNIFORMLY LOW AS EXPECTED...BUT STILL PRETTY MUCH IFR AND BLO ACRS THE AREA. WL PROBABLY GET FOG TO THICKEN SOME ARND DAYBREAK. CONDITONS SHOULD IMPROVE FM S-N DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH IT WL BE A SLOW PROCESS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ005- 010>013-018>021-030-031-035>039-045-048-049-073-074. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ022-040-050. && $$  FXUS63 KGRB 052040 AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 240 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 REMAINING CLOUDS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AN END. ASOS UNITS AT AIRPORTS IN WAUSAU AND RHINELANDER HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB REPORTING BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS WHILE THE AWOS UNITS AT EAGLE RIVER...ARBORVITAE AND MANITOWISH WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE AS THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPORT BLOWING SNOW. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO BLOWING SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT A STEADY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AND HELP PRODUCE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER WITH LOWS OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WHERE THERE IS BARE GROUND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A VERY NICE PICTURE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER WISCONSIN CAN BE OBTAINED AT GE.SSEC.WISC.EDU/MODIS-TODAY/. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS. THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION NOTED ON THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO -14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TO MOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE... THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTING WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY... ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED... ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH ROADS. IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013 MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIFTING SNOW. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS. GOOD FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030. && $$ SHORT TERM.....RDM LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......RDM  FXUS63 KGRB 052044 CCA AFDGRB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 240 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 REMAINING CLOUDS OVER NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SHOULD COME TO AN END. ASOS UNITS AT AIRPORTS IN WAUSAU AND RHINELANDER HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB REPORTING BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS WHILE THE AWOS UNITS AT EAGLE RIVER...ARBORVITAE AND MANITOWISH WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING HAZE AS THEY DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPORT BLOWING SNOW. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO BLOWING SNOW IN THE NORTH...BUT A STEADY BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AND HELP PRODUCE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WHERE THERE IS SNOW COVER WITH LOWS OF ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WHERE THERE IS BARE GROUND. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. A VERY NICE PICTURE OF THE SNOW COVER OVER WISCONSIN CAN BE OBTAINED AT GE.SSEC.WISC.EDU/MODIS-TODAY/ (USE SMALL LETTERS). .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 239 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013 ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TO THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS. THINGS TURN VERY INTERESTING ON SUNDAY AN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA WILL BE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET STREAK. ALSO...WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION NOTED ON THE MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST OFF THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO BE -12 C TO -14 C...WHILE LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND +3C. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW BAND TO MOVE NORTHWEST OFF THE LAKE INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. EVEN IF HEAVY SNOW BAND DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PINPOINTING WHERE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG THE LAKE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. THINKING AT LEAST 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE LAKE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SPOTS RECEIVED A FOOT IF HEAVY SNOW BAND SETS UP. DID INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 12Z MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING. LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...THUS SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON NORTH/SOUTH ROADS. IT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WINDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SHOW SOME MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE AND ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013 MVFR CIGS NORTHWEST OF A WAUSAU TO IRON MOUNTAIN LINE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND DRIFTING SNOW. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS. GOOD FLYING WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030. && $$ SHORT TERM.....RDM LONG TERM......ECKBERG AVIATION.......RDM  FXUS63 KGRB 180810 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Warm and quiet weather for the rest of the work week, though it will be quite windy at times. Turning cooler by early next week. A very energetic band of low-amplitude westerlies was across Canada and the far northern CONUS. The pattern will undergo some amplification during the remainder of the work week, with a trough forming near the West Coast and increased ridging over the Great Lakes region. Additional changes will quickly follows as a much stronger trough develops out near 160W. That will flip the downstream pattern to one with a ridge near the West Coast and troughing over the Great Lakes region by early next week. Temperatures 10 to 20 F degrees above normal are expected into the upcoming weekend, then readings will drop back much closer to seasonal normals by early next week. The best chance for rain will be with a frontal system crossing the area this weekend, but that system seems unlikely to bring substantial rains, so amounts are likely to end up below normal for the period. && .SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Thursday Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Quiet weather is expected throughout the period as a series of strong cyclones track east across Canada. It will be windy at times. The main forecast issue is temperatures. Guidance was too cool yesterday and looks too cool the next couple days as well. Went with maxes for today that were a couple degrees above yesterdays observed values at most locations. Thursday won't be quite as warm as a cool front trailing from one of the Canadian cyclones will cross the area tonight. But highs are still expected to be above normal. The forecast pressure gradient and some CAA suggest it's less likely low-levels will decouple completely tonight. So shaved a couple degrees off mins in the typical cool spots, but don't expect the drop we've seen at some locations this morning. .LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Unseasonably warm weather will continue on Friday and into Saturday (not as warm due to cloud cover/chances of rain). Highs on Friday will be around 20 degrees above normal away from the bay and lake, but just shy of the record high for the date at this point. Have raised high temperatures on Friday per coordination with surrounding offices. Still some timing differences among the models with arrival of the rain and when the cold front will pass through the area over the weekend. Latest GFS/WRF model depict precipitation breaking out with the southerly flow on Saturday, with main precipitation with the cold front Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Yesterday, the ECMWF was the slowest model with the passage of the cold front. The 00z run tonight has sped up this system. Best available of capes were between 200 and 400 J/kg. Will continue the small chances of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Mid level lapse rates were pretty steep. The cold front will move away from the area Sunday afternoon, bringing drier conditions to the region. Next system approaches from the northwest late Sunday night, bringing another chance of showers Monday into Monday night. A significant change in the weather pattern is expected by the end of next week. Northwest flow will become established across the area, bringing an end to the unusually mild October weather. In reality, temperatures will return closer to normal next week, which will be a shock due to the expected warm weather this week. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Gusty surface winds today will probably be the most significant aviation weather issue during the next 24 hours. Still expect mainly just cirrus for clouds, though model RH progs have some moisture around 850 mb so it's possible some lower clouds could form. Still expect bases to be VFR though. The ongoing LLWS will ease this morning as mixing deepens and surface winds increase and become gusty. LLWS will redevelop late this afternoon in the east as the boundary layer decouples. But weakening wind aloft and CAA should result in LLWS easing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017 Opted to keep the SC.Y rather than upgrade to a GL.W. Some gale force gusts are still likely, but it does not look as though they will be widespread/persistent enough to warrant a Gale Warning. MODIS satellite imagery indicated water temperatures over the NSH waters were in the middle to upper 50s, so low-levels will be stable as the strongest winds move through aloft. Persistent strong southwest winds are likely to result in high waves on Lake Michigan Friday into Sunday morning. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski SHORT TERM.....Skowronski LONG TERM......Eckberg AVIATION.......Skowronski MARINE.........Skowronski/Eckberg