FXUS65 KGGW 102058 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 258 PM MDT SUN APR 10 2011 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS SPILLING OVER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE... ANTICIPATE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SNOW MELT ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM OVERFLOWING RIVERS ALSO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN LOW LYING AREAS. MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY JOIN IN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ALONG WITH SLIGHT UPSLOPE TO FORM A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. BIG THING WORKING AGAINST THESE THUNDERSTORMS IS A LACK OF A THICK LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MAY NOT BE ABLE TO FIRM UP DURING THE DAY TIME. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS INITIALLY FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER... AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 6PM IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH VERTICAL CONVECTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND CREATE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TUESDAY... WITH THE COLD FRONTS PASSAGE... TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SEMI-STABLE CONDITIONS AND A NEWLY FORMING WEAK RIDGE WILL HELP TO KEEP THIS DAY DRY AS WELL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SNOW PACK ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MODIS IMAGERY WHICH IS FAR MORE EXTENSIVE THAN NOHRSC MODELS SHOW IS ANTICIPATED TO ENCOURAGE A RAPID SNOW MELT IN THE REGION DURING THESE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD INCUR FURTHER FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. GAH .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS SOME ISSUES WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE MODEL SPECTRUM OF TEMPERATURES IS VERY WIDE FROM THE GFS TO THE EC WHICH ARE ON OPPOSITE ENDS. ALSO THE TIMING OF FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE VERY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIR GOOD ON THURSDAY FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION AS A FRONT CROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST AT BRINGING THE FEATURE INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND EC IS SLOWER. KEPT WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION. HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS IN THE TIMING WILL BE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE VALUE. AFTER THAT CLIMO WAS THE BEST CALL WITH THE MODELS ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONLY PROBLEM NOTICED WITH THAT IS PROBABLY IN TEMPERATURES WHERE A WARM UP IS SHOWN WITH MORE CLIMO VALUES. FOR NOW WITH THE WIDE RANGE OF FORECAST OPTIONS IT/S THE BEST CALL. PROTON && .AVIATION... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG VALLEYS AND LOW LYING REGIONS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR OR NEAR IFR BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNUP. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF TO 5 TO 10 KTS. GAH && .HYDROLOGY... WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEK WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SNOW MELT. CONSEQUENTLY... THE SPRING THAWING AND RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND PROBABLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. IT WILL BE AT LEAST 2 WEEKS BEFORE FLOOD ISSUES BEGIN TO SUBSIDE PERMANENTLY...THOUGH RIVER LEVELS MAY FLUCTUATE SOME. A FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY AS BIG MUDDY CREEK AND LAKE CREEK WERE RUNNING OUT OF THEIR BANKS CAUSING SOME NEARBY ROADS TO BE INUNDATED. THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN PHILLIPS AND MUCH OF VALLEY COUNTY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... FOR FLOODING ALONG THE FOLLOWING STREAMS... BRAZIL CREEK... BUFFALO CREEK... WILLOW CREEK... BEAVER CREEK AND LARB CREEK... AS WELL AS ALONG THE MILK RIVER. ANTELOPE CREEK ALSO CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR BY EARLY THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE. A MAIN STEM FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TAMPICO... GLASGOW... SACO ... AND NASHUA FORECAST POINTS ON THE MILK RIVER. TAMPICO IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY MORNING. GLASGOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. NASHUA REACHED FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASES AND MINOR FLOODING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. CREEKS WERE RUNNING HIGH IN NORTHERN MCCONE AND RICHLAND COUNTIES BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN ROOSEVELT COUNTY WITH ICE STILL IMPACTING FLOWS ON STREAMS ACROSS THE COUNTY. && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  FXUS65 KGGW 160321 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 821 PM MST THU NOV 15 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH A LITTLE AND DECREASE THEM TO THE NORTH A LITTLE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS PROBABLY CAUSED BY DIFFERENTIAL SNOW COVER. MODIS SATELLITE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SNOW HAS MELTED IN SOUTHERN ZONES...WHILE SNOW COVER IS STILL SIGNIFICANT TO THE NORTH. ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AS SOME LOCAL AREAS HAVE OBSERVED VISIBILITY BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE. MARTIN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE VALLEYS BELOW 2500 FEET. THE 12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SHALLOW INVERSION HOLDING OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THINK THAT MOST OF THE WARMING WILL RIDE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD AIR...KEEPING THE COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO COOL VALLEY TEMPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MILK AND MISSOURI RIVERS. WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TO BECOME FILTERED BY SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CWA ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. SINCE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REBOUND NICELY AND EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 40 DEGREES IN THE NORTH. THE 12Z NAM BRINGS THE 850MB 8 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINNETT TO CIRCLE. AS A RESULT OF THIS POSSIBLE WARMING IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EXPERIENCE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S...EVEN WITH THE SNOW PACK IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP SO HAVE KEPT LOWS HIGHER AND FEEL THAT FOG WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. ON SATURDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY SO EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE AND A HIGH TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW MELT TAKING PLACE BY THIS TIME AND SOME INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY FEEL THAT THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. MALIAWCO/GILCHRIST .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA UNDER A RIDGE. A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SENDS A PACIFIC STORM AND COLD FRONT NUDGING INTO THE PAC-NW. THE STORM SENDS A TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE DIVIDE AROUND SUNDAY EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE BECOMES WEAKENED BY THE TIME IT GETS OVER THE PRAIRIE. THE GFS AND EC DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS DOES BRING IN A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GULF LOW ROTATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE PAC-NW AROUND MID-WEEK. THE GFS AND EC ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING. BUT SOMETIME AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THE NEXT FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION TO BRING A BETTER SHOT OF MOISTURE. WITH THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES THE AREA CAN EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN WITH RAIN THAT COULD TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE WEEKEND. HOLIDAY TRAVEL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE INTERFERED WITH IF THERE IS A WINTRY MIX. TEMPERATURES OVERALL...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH COOL NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES BEGIN NEAR NORMAL THEN TREND WARMER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK. THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND LOWER AROUND THE WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. MAIN CHANGES WERE MADE TO UPDATE POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS AND EC MODELS. SCT PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN TO THE WASHINGTON OREGON COASTLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA WHERE IT WILL BE RUNG OUT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SOME THIS MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA AND MIGHT POSSIBLE MAKE IT TO OUR SW ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIQUID. EVERYONE ELSE ACROSS THE CWA WILL JUST SEE CLOUD COVER AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF AND SEEMS TO PUSH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE A BIT FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. DECIDED TO ADD POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING LEVELS OF QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN MONTANA. THERE IS A HINT OF SOMETHING COMING UP DAY 8 AND DAY 8 NIGHT WITH THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF. THEY ARE ALL HINTING AT THE UPPER TROUGH BEING PUSHED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE SHALLOW TROUGH LIKE FEATURE WHEN IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SUB ZERO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE GFS/GEM HAVE THE TROUGH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE SUB ZERO 850MB TEMPERATURES AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN WYOMING. SO WITH THIS IN MIND I SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND PUT IN A WINTRY MIX FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. RSMITH && .AVIATION... VFR THROUGH ROUGHLY 1000Z THEN FREEZING FOG WILL GENERATE IFR VISIBILITIES FOR KGGW AND KOLF. AN UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MOISTURE CLOSE TO THE GROUND FROM MELTING SNOW COULD BRING ADDITIONAL FREEZING FOG LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING IN CLOUD COVER BY FRIDAY EVENING...MINIMIZING THE CHANCE FOR FOG. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. GAH/SCT && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  FXUS65 KGGW 162110 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 210 PM MST FRI NOV 16 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... SEASONALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE FLOW ALOFT EITHER ZONAL OR TURNED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER TROUGH NUDGING UP TO THE PAC-NW COAST WILL SEND RAIN INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EAST WHICH WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE DIVIDE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL REGION ON SUNDAY...NOT QUITE MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY. THE THURSDAY 18Z MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE SNOW-PACK TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA. THE ONLY AREA WERE BARE GROUND IS APPEARING IS SOUTHERN PATCHES OF PETROLEUM AND JORDAN COUNTIES. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODIFIED BY THE ALBEDO OF THE SNOW. TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW UNDERCUTS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS WAVE IS DRY. HOWEVER THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LIMIT FOG FORMATION. SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...850MB AND 700MB WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL TWEAK UP THICKNESS HEIGHTS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THE WARMER START AND PARTIAL CLEARING WILL NUDGE TMAX A BIT WARMER. SUNDAY...A LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH IT BY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES AGAIN INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SCT .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR CWA WILL FIND ITSELF IN ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS CONSISTENCY BRINGING IN SOME PRECIPITATION TO OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION IN PLACE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...EXPECT SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS OUR CWA. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE CWA AND WITH CONTINUING SNOW MELT ANTICIPATE THAT A WARM UP IS IN ORDER. SOME SNOW COVER LINGERING IN THE NORTH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THERE. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THE 40S IN THE NORTH WITH 50S BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS BRINGS THE HIGHEST 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS REACH AS HIGH AS 11 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR SIDNEY TO SCOBEY. EVEN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES APPROACH 10 DEGREES AT 850MB BUT DUE TO SNOW COVER IT WILL BE HARDER TO WARM UP AS MUCH THERE. SO HAVE KEPT WARMEST HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE KEPT NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN THE MID 40S IN AREAS SUCH AS PLENTYWOOD AND POPLAR. MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY AND WITH A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE CWA THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION AND SO HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE HERE WILL NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING PRECIPITATION PART OF THE FORECAST. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS DGEX AND GEM ALL ARE AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND USHERING IN SOME ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES SOME THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND TRENDS. REGARDLESS... EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND MEANING ANY COOL DOWN WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. MALIAWCO/GILCHRIST && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR. A MID AND HIGH LEVEL BKN-OVC CEILING CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KGDV AND KSDY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 06 KTS. SOME PATCHY IFR FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE RIVER BOTTOMS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. GILCHRIST/MALIAWCO && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW  FXUS65 KGGW 202020 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 220 PM MDT FRI MAR 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... CAUGHT BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HAVE HAD A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH BUT THEY NOT HAD MUCH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THOSE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT BATCH OF LOWER TO MID CLOUDS COMING IN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. WE HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR NE CORNER. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ITS THE CALM BEFORE THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY STORM. OF INTEREST IS THE MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE ICE ROTTING PRETTY QUICKLY ON FORT PECK LAKE. WITH TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S ALONG THE LAKE TOMORROW WE MAY SEE MOST OF THE ICE GONE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL ON TOP OF ANY REMAINING ICE. FRANSEN .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON WITH A MORE NORTHWARD SOLUTION FOR A SHORTWAVE...TRACKING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LEADS TO A WARMER SOLUTION AND MORE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BE LOADED WITH WATER SO GETTING PRECIPITATION TYPE RIGHT IS OF THE ESSENCE. NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 0.75 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING WHICH IS APPROACHING +3SD FROM CLIMO...INDICATIVE OF A VERY MOIST COLUMN. DO BELIEVE THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN SNOW OVER TOWARD PLENTYWOOD BUT WITH A WARM GROUND ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO MIGHT THE BE UPWARD EXTEND. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL OFFER A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION AND THUS DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. OF CONCERN IS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE EXISTS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. THE NEW GFS HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE...HAVING A NARROWER BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER QPF. THE ECMWF MEANWHILE IS FAR MORE ROBUST WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY AMOUNTS OF QPF ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERMAL PROFILES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. TO THE NORTH THERE COULD BE A WINTRY MIX OR EVEN ACCUMULATING SNOW. AS MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY IMPROVES WITH THIS SYSTEM CONFIDENCE WILL IMPROVE. FOR NOW TOO MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPECIFICS BUT THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA...INCLUDING THOSE INVOLVED WITH CALVING...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST. GIVEN THE FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE MIDWEEK...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK THEREFORE STANDS AND REMAINS AS DESCRIBED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. MALIAWCO PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION... EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY. THE MOST IMPACTFUL PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CLOSE OFF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE MILES CITY...GLENDIVE...BAKER AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH SHOWING THIS TO BE AN ACTIVE AND WET SYSTEM WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AS DAILY LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THAWING AND FREEZING LEVELS...THIS COULD BE A COMPLICATED MIXED-PRECIP EVENT. SINCE GROUND TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY THAWED THIS TIME OF YEAR...ANY SNOWFALL WOULD TAKE A WHILE TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS THE MOST COMPLICATED PERIOD TO BE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...SNOW AND RAIN ALL POSSIBLE. USED THE POTENTIAL WEATHER TOOLS TO TRY AND DEPICT THIS WITH SOME DETAIL...BUT GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO USE THIS FAR OUT. WITH A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO PRECIP AMOUNTS AND SNOW RATIOS...SNOW UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS. FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME AS POTENTIAL TO PROCEDURES GENERATE 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH OF ICE ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY...THIS ACTIVE TROUGH ALSO DROPS AN ADDITIONAL LOBE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND KEEPS US IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ALBEIT WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT IS IN PLACE FOR A CLEARING RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BMICKELSON && .AVIATION... FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR-VFR SYNOPSIS: LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ND WITH AN INVERTED TROF INTO NE MONTANA IS BRINGING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LOWER CLOUD DECK IS COMING ACROSS THE BORDER AS WELL AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK VERY WELL. FRANSEN && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW