FXUS63 KFSD 160857

AFDFSD



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

257 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018



.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018



The uneventful and mild weather will continue across the region 

today. Weak shortwave is passing overhead early this morning but not 

producing anything more than some upper level clouds. Surface winds 

have and will continue to be more westerly/northwesterly thru the 

daytime hours although less breezy in nature than Saturday. 



Latest NOHRSC snow depth analysis along with yesterday's MODIS 

imagery show a shrinking snow pack across the region, although still 

remaining across far southern South Dakota into NW Iowa and SW 

Minnesota. Temperatures aloft at 925 mb have cooled a shade compared 

to yesterday but still expect fairly efficient warming for areas 

void of any snow cover. In general, expect mid to perhaps upper 40s 

for areas without snowcover and upper 30s to lower 40s for areas 

with. 



Overnight, surface high pressure along with added snow melt boundary 

layer moisture could allow for some patchy fog development with area 

river valleys the most likely area for this to occur. Lows in the 

mid teens to mid 20s look to be commonplace.



.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 226 AM CST Sun Dec 16 2018



Still not a whole lot to discuss in the extended portions of the 

forecast. Upper level ridge axis will move overhead for Monday 

before being flattened by a weak shortwave Tuesday. By mid week, 

upper level trough and jet streak swing through the area allowing 

for a somewhat healthier disturbance to pass through Wednesday. 

Moisture profiles continue to look rather meager and thus have kept 

POPs fairly minimal at this point. If any precip does occur, it 

would be very light with operational and ensemble consensus only 

spotty amounts of a hundredth of an inch or two. Also continued the 

trend of nudging winds up Wednesday night and Thursday. This same 

system phases and deepens more efficiently well to our east into a 

closed low over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, upper level ridging 

builds back in to our west late week. 



Overall summary for the upcoming work week would be continued mostly 

dry and mild conditions. As snow pack continues to shrink, warming 

will become more equally distributed. Generally expect afternoon 

high temperatures to run from the mid 30s to mid/upper 40s.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 1046 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018



VFR conditions will prevail through this forecast period.



&&



.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

MN...None.

IA...None.

NE...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Kalin

LONG TERM...Kalin

AVIATION...JH