FXUS63 KDLH 212113 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 313 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH OVER NRN PLAINS HAS SPREAD LIGHT SNOW INTO WRN EDGE OF CWA. VIS HAVE LOWERED TO BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 3 MILES WITHIN SNOW BAND. TEMPS REMAIN CHILLY BY NORTHLAND STANDARDS WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 THROUGH TONIGHT...ELONGATED SFC LOW/TROUGH WITH PRIMARY CENTER MORE LIKELY TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS BORDERLAND AND INTO THE KEEWENAW PENINSULA BY 12Z WED. WEAK OMEGA STILL FCST WITHIN THE SATURATED DGZ SO WILL MAINTAIN THE IDEA OF A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. WINDCHILL VALUES WILL LOWER TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER THE WRN PART OF THE CWA. WILL CARRY MENTION IN ZFP FOR NOW AND CONCENTRATE ON SNOW/WIND OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...SFC LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SWRN AND SRN CWA IN THE MORNING AS ISALLOBARIC PRESS RISE CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF CWA. SEVERAL MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AND UNFORTUNATELY THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS WOULD BE PREFERRED. THE FCST SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG SOUTH SHORE AND GRAVITY...OR STANDING...WAVE FROM SOUTH SHORE TO SE CARLTON/NE PINE COUNTY. STANDING WAVE WOULD SUPPORT AN ARE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY THE EVENING. OF MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. MODIS IMAGERY AND EMC ICE SERVICE CHARTS SHOW A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF NEW ICE HAS FORMED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE HUGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER THIS ICE COVERAGE CAN OFFSET SOME OF THE BL LATENT HEAT EXCHANGE. TOUGH TO DETERMINE AHEAD OF TIME BUT AFTER MUCH CONSTERNATION HAVE OPTED FOR A LES ADVISORY WITH WORDING THAT AN EVENTUAL UPGRADE TO WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW EQL INCREASING TO 10K TO 13K FT TOMORROW AFTN WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES NEAR 750 J/KG...HOWEVER HI- RES MDLS SHOWING LITTLE/NO DEVELOPMENT OF PLUMES. HAVING SAID THAT THE SNOWFALL PLUMES FOR KIWD RANGE FROM A MIN OF 2 INCHES TO A MAX OF 12 INCHES. TOMORROW NIGHT...LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE. AS EXPRESSED BEFORE...WE WILL NEED TO WAIT TO SEE HOW INITIAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT OCCURS BEFORE WE CAN GET MORE CONFIDENCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LES EVENT. MEANWHILE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BEGIN LOWERING OVER MOST OF THE CWA SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WARNING WILL BE MOST LIKELY ISSUED OVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 A VERY COLD ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE MOVING IN ON THURSDAY WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEG RANGE...AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY REACHING TO AROUND ZERO. MORNING WIND CHILLS -30 TO -45 WILL REMAIN STEADY AROUND -20 OR SO THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/W EXPECTED TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK WAA AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. RELATIVELY STRONG WAA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER AIR...AND BUMP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT REALLY FEEL THAT WARM WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TEENS. AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH YET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INTRUDE UPON THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS SAT THROUGH MON WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. WILL ALSO SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LES...ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE AMT OF ICE COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014 VFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY BECOME MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE NW. LOW-END MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH-END MVFR INTO LATE WED MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH BY WED MORNING...BECOMING GUSTY...UP TO 20-30 KT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -7 1 -19 -1 / 80 40 10 0 INL -10 -3 -28 1 / 70 30 10 0 BRD -7 1 -21 1 / 80 10 10 0 HYR -6 4 -18 1 / 80 50 30 0 ASX -4 4 -14 0 / 70 80 60 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT  FXUS63 KDLH 222132 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 332 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 DEEPLY STACKED LOW OVER THE CTRL GREAT LAKES HAS SWEPT A POOL OF VERY COLD AIR SOUTH INTO THE CWA. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS NW WISC. LES HAS BEEN OCCURRING TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE SNOWBELTS HOWEVER SO FAR AMOUNTS HAVE REPORTED TO BE 1 TO 2 INCHES. MODIS IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED MUCH MORE OPEN WATER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NW WINDS WORKED ON INITIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ICE FREE WATER OFF NORTH SHORE AND CREATED A LARGER OPENING. VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A FAIRLY EVEN AMOUNT OF PLUME DEVELOPMENT IN LAKE BDRY LYR SO LATENT HEAT EXCHANGE HAS BEEN OCCURRING. MID LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW IS WRAPPING WEST TOWARDS ERN WISC ZONES AS OF MID AFTN. GUSTY NW WINDS...LOCALLY 35 MPH+...HAVE OCCURED FROM THE BRD LAKES REGION TO TWIN PORTS THIS AFTN. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 DEEP LOW OVER CTRL GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO ERN GT LAKES BY EARLY THURSDAY. A FAVORABLY MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP LES GOING OVER SOUTH SHORE THROUGH THE EVENING/EARLY MORNING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR/GROUND REPORTS TO DETERMINE NECESSITY OF AN UPGRADE TO WARNING. GIVEN HOW LITTLE HAS FALLEN SO FAR WILL LET ADDITIONAL 5 INCH POTENTIAL BE HANDLED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN INTO THE EVENING AND ENOUGH GRADIENT CONTINUES TO HAVE WIND CHILL ISSUES ONCE AGAIN. WIND CHILL WARNING LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS THE NE MN AND WRN WISC ZONES WITH AN ADVISORY FARTHER EAST. TOMORROW...SFC HIGH OVER DAKOTAS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS SO WE MAINTAIN SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SFC. THIS WILL ALLOW NASTY WIND CHILLS TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. LES WILL SHUT DOWN WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE DEEP LAYER AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING DOWN TO ABOUT 2K FT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLO CLIMO. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED JAN 22 2014 WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING TO THE EAST THUR NIGHT AS AN UPPER S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS S/W WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. A SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY FROM THE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS THUR NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO PARTS OF NW WI. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVES ON SATURDAY...AND BRING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SWD FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND INTO S-CENTRAL MN LATE SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. ANOTHER DOMINATE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT FAIRLY MILD THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS THE ARCTIC DOOR OPENS UPON THE NORTHLAND AND MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND ZERO OR SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO. BRISK WINDS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED JAN 22 2014 LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND BLSN OVER NE MN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND HYR...DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS TODAY WILL WEAKEN AND BACK TO THE W/SW TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -21 -3 -6 27 / 10 0 70 60 INL -29 -1 -5 25 / 10 0 70 60 BRD -22 -1 -7 31 / 0 0 40 60 HYR -21 -1 -10 28 / 40 0 60 70 ASX -15 -2 -8 27 / 90 10 60 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>037. WI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001-006-007. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004-008- 009. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ002>004. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...BJT  FXUS63 KDLH 111746 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1246 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 AT 345AM/0845Z...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ITS ASSOCIATED BAND OF PCPN NORTH OF THE LOW...STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST...WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY FROM MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE QUEBEC LOW TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN. THERE WAS CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR...AIR OF ARCTIC ORIGINS...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MUCH OF ONTARIO...MANITOBA...AND SASKATCHEWAN HAD BKN/OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE NORTHLAND HAD TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WERE WNW TO NW WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH. TODAY...THE PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST TO MISSOURI. ITS BAND OF PCPN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THEN BEGIN TO SCATTER AND SHIFT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DITCH THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS....THE LOW CLOUDS IN CANADA WILL LIKELY SPREAD BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...SO I INCREASED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SINCE THOSE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. THE HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY. TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME NNE TO ENE. CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A LOT MORE OPEN WATER NOW DUE TO THE RECENT WARM WEATHER...THE COLD FLOW OVER THE LAKE WILL RESULT IN SOME DECENT CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES ACROSS NW WISCONSIN...THE TWIN PORTS AREA...AND FOR THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP ON THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THREAT...BUT THE NAM12 AND SREF ARE DOING MUCH BETTER HANDLING THIS. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY GET ABOUT A HALF TO A FULL INCH. MORE IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK WE WILL GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE THREAT WHEN THIS TIMEFRAME COMES INTO VIEW FOR MORE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THE BEST PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT 9 PM TO 3 AM. THIS IS WHEN OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE FLOW OVER THE LAKE LOOKS TO BE BEST...AND THEN DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION VERY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND DECREASING WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL AROUND AND SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. I DECREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST NOW HAS A RANGE OF MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...TO THE MID TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS THE WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LIGHTEN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES...BUT I DID LOWER THE HIGHS A BIT BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS BEING MUCH COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR OF PACIFIC ORIGINS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE ONLY THE GFS WAS THIS QUICK AT BRINGING IN THE PCPN...I DECIDED TO KEEP THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DRY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 HAVE INCREASED TO BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT/THURS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT/MID LEVEL OMEGA TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...TRIGGERING A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY A HALF TO ONE INCH. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AS THE WARM SECTOR PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S. LATEST MODELS SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING...BUT ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WITH CLOSED H85/SFC LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND TRACKS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS A LACK OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER/MN ARROWHEAD ZONES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE COMMON IN THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST MONDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND AHEAD OF AN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THIS ORGANIZED SYSTEM DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS AND TRACKS OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014 COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY/TONIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AS WELL TONIGHT. STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO. WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 2500-3500 TO MOVE INTO MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. THE RAP HAS DONE AN OK JOB DEPICTING THE CLOUDS...BUT DOES SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE COVERAGE. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER OVER LAKE SUPERIOR PER MODIS IMAGERY...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW MORE LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LES/CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN KDLH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 34 4 19 10 / 10 30 10 50 INL 27 -9 19 15 / 20 10 0 50 BRD 36 7 23 15 / 10 10 10 40 HYR 36 3 17 8 / 10 20 10 40 ASX 37 3 13 4 / 10 30 20 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI LONG TERM...GRANING AVIATION...MELDE  FXUS63 KDLH 121456 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 956 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM ABOUT SILVER BAY TO THE TWIN PORTS...EAST TO ASHLAND. THE STRONGEST ECHOES/LOWEST VSBYS WERE OCCURRING FROM TWO HARBORS TO THE TWIN PORTS. SATELLITE SHOWS THE TWO MAIN BANDS IMPACTING OUR CWA HAVE SOURCE REGIONS FROM OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH A SECOND AREA OF OPEN WATER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE DLH WRF SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK SOME THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND THAT SHOULD START TO LIMIT THE RESIDENCE TIME OVER OPEN WATER. MODIS IMAGERY FROM THE 10TH/11TH SHOWED THE ICE HAD THINNED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LAKE SO WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE. WE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS THIS MORNING. WE PUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 1-2 INCHES IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA. UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DULUTH AREA. KDLH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SNOW SHOWERS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY. THINK SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE BUT THE HEAVIEST HAS MOVED OFF. WE SAW UP TO 7 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKES. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SHOULD DEFINITELY BE A COLDER DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 AT 330 AM...A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WE HAD RECEIVED 2 1/2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT THE AIRPORT,..AND A LOCAL METEOROLOGIST JUST SOUTHEAST OF HEAR IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND REPORTED 4 1/4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. THE BAND WAS VERY NARROW...AS IT WAS LARGELY PERPETUATED BY A NARROW AREA OF OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. HOWEVER IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE IT WAS LARGELY CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF NE MN...WITH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF NW WI. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WERE FOUND ACROSS NW WI. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW FOR ZONE 37...WHICH IS SOUTHERN SAINT LOUIS AND CARLTON COUNTIES. WHILE THE SNOWFALL WAS HIGHLY VARIABLE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE ZONE WILL NOT SEE THE HEAVY AMOUNTS...IT WILL CAUSE QUITE AN IMPACT FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE IN THE GREATER DULUTH AREA. THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5 TO 7 INCH TOTAL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THINK THERE COULD BE SOME FURTHER SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR. STRONG WAA AND FGEN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR TWO BUT COULD BE A BIT MORE IN SPOTS. TEMPS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT TONIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WAA AND CLOUDS/SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART ON THURSDAY. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 SPLIT FLOW REMAINS IN THE WESTERLIES THIS PERIOD WITH NRN BRANCH ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS AND NRN PLAINS MOST OF THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT A CONTINUATION OF FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED. PTYPE ISSUES WILL BE EVIDENT AT TIMES AS LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS CONTINUE TO MODIFY UNDER AN INCREASING SUN ANGLE AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF BDRY LAYER. A SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THUR NIGHT WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY IN MN ZONES...MAY STILL BE A MIX OVER WISC ZONES. A DEEP CYCLONIC AND RELATIVELY MOIST CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY OVER THE CWA. A RESIDUAL BDRY LAYER TROUGH MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN CWA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD TO HIGHER POPS. WILL USE MAINLY SNOW OVER NRN ZONES...RAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST WILL COMMENCE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. PATTERN WILL THEN SHIFT TO A WARM ADVECTION REGIME SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. MID LVL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER NRN PLAINS MON/TUESDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF INITIAL NRN PLAINS SFC LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. THIS KEEPS THE CWA IN A PROLONGED PATTERN OF WARM ADVECTION WITH A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE POPS REMAIN IN FCST INTO AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE AOA CLIMO FRIDAY BEFORE LOWERING TO BELOW CLIMO DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 AREA OF SNOW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR TWIN PORTS IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR BY MID MORNING AT BOTH KHYR/KDLH. OTHERWISE SOUTHWARD BUILDING RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING. APPROACHING WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LOWERING CEILINGS EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT WITH -SN POSSIBLE AT KINL/KBRD/KHIB. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL MAKE IT TO ERN TERMINALS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 20 9 43 28 / 80 60 10 20 INL 19 12 44 26 / 30 60 10 40 BRD 23 16 47 27 / 10 50 10 10 HYR 19 5 44 28 / 30 60 10 20 ASX 13 1 46 28 / 60 60 30 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MELDE SHORT TERM...DAP LONG TERM...CANNON AVIATION...CANNON  FXUS63 KDLH 160858 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 358 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 LARGE SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET ALONG BORDERLAND. -22F AT KCDD AND -21F AT ASH LAKE SO FAR WITH A FEW HRS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING REMAINING. A MESOSCALE AREA OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL WIND CIRCULATING AROUND LARGE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH. YESTERDAY MODIS SHOWED PLENTY OF OPEN WATER UPSTREAM OF THE ICE COVERED HEAD OF THE LAKE. 88D RETURNS OF APPROX 15/20 DBZ WITH 10SM -SN REPORTED AT KDYT. THERE IS A CORE OF 30 DBZ OVER THE LAKE SO WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN DULUTH AND TWO HARBORS IN NEXT FEW HRS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 AREA OF LOW CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL ADVECT ALONG NORTH SHORE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING MAY TEMPORARILY ALLOW SUBSIDENCE TO ELIMINATE THIS POTENTIAL. SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WRN CWA AS AN APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AS SATURATION OCCURS FROM TOP DOWN. HIGHEST PROB OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. THE THERMAL FORCING...FRONTOGENESIS..ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN ELEVATED TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTRIBUTES ADDITIONAL ASCENT. THE LATEST GEM IS INDICATING MUCH HIGHER TOTALS OVER THE ARROWHEAD BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS AN OUTLIER. LATEST GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST 24HR TOTAL OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. PTYPE ISSUES MAY ARISE OVER SWRN AND EXTREME WRN CWA DURING THE DAY AS THE SREF PTYPES AND SOME OF THE NWP SNDGS SUGGEST. MDL THERMAL FIELDS COMPLICATED BY THE COLLAPSING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE DAY WITH FOCUS FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE CTRL PLAINS. BY LATE MONDAY MID LVL FLOW IS FCST TO FEATURE SOMEWHAT OF A CONFLUENT NATURE BETWEEN HUDSON BAY TROF AND NRN ROCKIES SYSTEM. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS STORM WITH INCREASING INTEREST FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...THOUGH NEARER TERMS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT...BUT HAS BEEN DRIFTING THE SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTHEAST ON THE LAST 3 RUNS...BRINGING THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS WELL. IN GENERAL PREFER A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAR NORTHWEST...AND THE GEM HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AS COMPARED TO THE BLEND. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEGATIVE TILT IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NO LONGER AS APPARENT...WITH MODELS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT IN THIS TRACK. THE SURFACE LOW NOW MOVES ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIPPING ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD TRACK FOR BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HEADLINES...PERHAPS EVEN WARNINGS. HOWEVER...FOR NOW AM KEEPING TO A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THIS DISCUSSION FOR NOW...AND WE CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR AWHILE LONGER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE MUCH QUIETER...WITH ONLY A SHORTWAVE GOING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW MOST OF THIS WAVE SHOULD MISS US TO THE SOUTH...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THAT WE HAVE ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BUT COOLING OFF AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE MN/NW WI OVERNIGHT..RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE OR LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. A SMALL AREA OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COULD AFFECT KDLH AND/OR KHYR FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 10Z..BUT CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION IN EITHER TAF AT THIS TIME. RAPID RETURN TO SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED 14-17Z SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. CLOUDS WILL ALSO RAPIDLY THICKEN..WITH LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO AFFECT KINL AROUND 00Z MONDAY..AND KHIB/KDLH BY THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 23 14 28 21 / 10 60 50 50 INL 24 15 34 21 / 10 60 40 30 BRD 25 18 34 26 / 0 60 30 70 HYR 23 11 29 22 / 0 60 60 20 ASX 23 11 29 22 / 10 40 60 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...LE AVIATION...MILLER  FXUS63 KDLH 230724 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 224 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON. DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TRAILING TO THE NW. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC AND COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES TODAY AND MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE AREA FREE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA LIFTS EWD. ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT OR TRACE AMTS OF QPF/SNOW BEFORE MONDAY EVENING AS THE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE FAIRLY DRY. THE COLD NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20. THE BREEZY NW WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE JANUARY INSTEAD OF LATE MARCH WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 TO 10. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL BE VERY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THEN UNDERGO GRADUAL WARMING. A MID-LATE WEEK SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. A SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MODIS IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY CONTINUES SHOW A LOT OF ICE COVER OVER THE LAKE...WITH OPEN WATER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...BUT THE ICE COVER SHOULD LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 24. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW...BUT FORCING LOOKS WEAK. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL OCCUR LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL HANDLE THE LOW DIFFERENTLY WITH VARYING IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHLAND. WE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY CLOSER TO WHAT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE SIGNIFICANT DEPENDING ON THE TRACK...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ALL POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THE HARDEST. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW APPROACHES...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE THIRTIES BY THURSDAY. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM. WE WENT DRY FOR FRIDAY...BUT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING CORRECT...WE WILL NEED TO ADD A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO AT LEAST THE EAST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS MINNESOTA THROUGH THE MORNING...PUSHING EAST OVER WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 17 -1 23 3 / 0 0 20 20 INL 15 -6 20 -5 / 0 0 30 20 BRD 21 5 28 3 / 10 0 20 10 HYR 18 -1 26 3 / 0 0 20 30 ASX 18 0 25 5 / 0 0 20 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...GRANING  FXUS63 KDLH 242020 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 320 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 A QUIET BUT CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS CLOUDS/FLURRIES CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING AS MIXING LAYER DEEPENS TO 6K TO 8K FT THIS AFTERNOON AND LATEST VWP SHOWS AVG OF 25KTS THROUGH THE SFC/6K LAYER. MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF CLOUDS/FLURRIES HAS BEEN OVER THE SRN TIER OF ZONES. VERY LITTLE/NO PRECIP ACROSS THE NRN TIER CLOSER TO APPROACHING FNTL BDRY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 LATE TODAY/TONIGHT...MID LVL TROF AMPLIFIES OVER GT LAKES INCREASING THE DEPTH OF NWRLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. A COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. TIME/HEIGHT XSECTS SHOW SOME INCREASING SATURATION IN DGZ LAYER SO HAVE KEPT FLURRIES IN FCST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MORE PROBABLE LOCATION FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. BUFKIT LES TECHNIQUE INDICATES A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MID EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND A MDT/STRONG DGZ/OMEGA SIGNATURE DEVELOPS. MODIS IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A SOMEWHAT LARGER AREA OF OPEN WATER ALONG WRN EDGE OF SUPERIOR IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS FISSURES. LIMITING FACTOR IS THE FCST WIND DIRECTION AS IT MAY BE TOO WESTERLY AT THE TIME OF MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORY. MAY SEE A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG THE GOGEBIC OVERNIGHT. LOWERED MIN TEMPS SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS FCST USING A BLEND OF COLDER EC/MAV MOS. TOMORROW...SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH GENERALLY A SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACTIVITY IN THE HYDROMETEOR DEPARTMENT. MAX TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLO CLIMO. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 THE FOCUS IS ON WHAT COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THAT A HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...BUT THE MODELS STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING THE GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF/FIM...GENERALLY INDICATE THE LOW WILL EITHER MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS...OR AS FAR NORTH AS WELL NORTH AS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THE GEM AND NAM HAVE THE MOST NORTHERN TRACKS...THE ECMWF AND FIM THE MOST SOUTHERN TRACKS...AND THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN. I LEANED ON THE GFS. THE STORM SYSTEM TRACK WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH PCPN THE NORTHLAND WILL GET...AS PCPN TYPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM IN THE 30S. THIS COULD BE THE CASE IN AT LEAST OUR SE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PCPN TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW WITH DEEP SATURATION ALOFT. I INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES...PCPN AMOUNTS...AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUITE A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE AREAS OF OPEN WATER TO RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW INTENSITY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE IOWA OR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA REGION. THE WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY BECOME NE AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE TWIN PORTS AREA AND NW WISCONSIN. THE SNOW AND PCPN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT IT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCREASE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH THE MOST FROM DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY GET ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AND CONSIDER A ISSUING A WATCH AT SOME POINT TOMORROW. BESIDES THE FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL STORM...TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE BELOW ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH. IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER OR WARMER THANT THIS FORECAST. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN...EITHER SNOW AND/OR RAIN...OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2014 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING MVFR AND VFR CIGS IN THE 2 TO 4 KFT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE CIGS COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR VSBYS. THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NW WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -2 17 0 28 / 10 10 0 40 INL -9 15 -6 28 / 10 10 0 60 BRD 0 20 2 35 / 10 10 0 10 HYR 0 18 -7 34 / 20 20 10 30 ASX 2 17 -2 31 / 30 10 0 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI  FXUS63 KDLH 030925 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 425 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014 OUR NEXT MAJOR SPRING STORM IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ROCKIES WITH TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WITHIN...ONE OVER MONTANA AND ANOTHER IN THE COLORADO/UTAH AREA. A JET IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WITH A 100KT STREAK ACROSS ARIZONA. AT LOWER LEVELS...THERE IS A LARGE MCS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI...RIDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM KANSAS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND ON EAST FROM THERE. SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALREADY PRODUCING SNOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTH ACROSS THESE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014 THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SWEEP EAST OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TAKES OVER SOMEWHAT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHERN ONE WEAKENING. THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY...TO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DEVELOP A VERY NICE AREA OF SNOW FROM NEBRASKA NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SLOWLY ROTATING FROM A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST BAND TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION BEFORE SWEEPING EAST ON FRIDAY...A FAIRLY CLASSIC DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW PATTERN. ON TOP OF IT ALL...AM EXPECTING A NICE DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR AT LEAST THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THUS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A GOOD 24-36 HOURS OF SNOW...WITH AT LEAST SOME OF THAT HEAVY SNOW. FOR NOW AM LOOKING AT A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...NOT TO MENTION FRIDAY. THE CURRENT AREA OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THIS AFTERNOON THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY IN THE BAND OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB...GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOSER TO 850MB TONIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING STRONGLY TODAY...WE WILL HAVE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PRODUCING INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH THE FETCH ACROSS OPEN WATER AS CAN BE SEEN IN YESTERDAYS MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FARTHER NORTHWEST...WITH AN ADVISORY NORTHWEST OF THAT. ALL BUT KOOCHICHING COUNTY IS IN A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 424 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014 STORM WILL PULLING OUT ON FRIDAY AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT TIMING. BY FRI AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN..ALTHOUGH NAM IS SLOWER AND ECMWF IS FASTER. THIS MOVEMENT WILL GRADUALLY END THE SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL PULL DOWN SOME COLD AIR FROM CANADA BUT 8H TEMPS DOWN TO -10C. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL GIVE A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COOL SATURDAY. THE COOL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE SFC RIDGE BEHIND THE STORM DRIFTS EAST AND A QUICK CANADIAN SYSTEM SLIPS BY TO THE NORTH...BUT SETTING UP SOME GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE WORK WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM ON SUNDAY THE A CHANCE OF SOME MORE FROM A SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM ON MONDAY. BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY. ANOTHER CANADIAN LOW WILL AFFECT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014 VFR UNTIL THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...THEN CIGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE SNOW SPREADS INTO BRD AND HYR AROUND 18Z. SNOW REACHES DLH BY 21Z...HIB BY 22Z AND INL BY 01Z/04. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH ISOLD LIFR PRIMARILY AT DLH/BRD/HYR. DIFFICULT TO TIME THESE BANDS AND LOCATION AND NOT LISTED IN THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF -SNPL AT HYR BEGINNING AT 01Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 32 24 33 18 / 90 100 100 10 INL 37 21 37 14 / 30 60 40 0 BRD 35 24 38 19 / 100 100 80 0 HYR 37 27 34 18 / 100 100 100 40 ASX 35 26 33 18 / 90 100 100 40 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ012-019>021-033>038. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-018-025-026. WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ140>143. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LE SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...CLC AVIATION...GSF  FXUS63 KDLH 200921 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 321 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS TODAY AND LAKE EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SNOW WAS PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR CWA. AN AREA OF WAA WAS DRIVING MOST OF THE LIFT THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TODAY AND GENERALLY AGREE ON SNOWFALL FROM A HALF TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE LIGHTEST ON SNOWFALL. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER IN THE MAX DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SPOTS. OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH VSBYS AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY AN OB OR TWO REPORTING LESS THAN 2SM...AND SOME OF THAT MAY BE BLOWING/DRIFTING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS TODAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE MOST OF THE SNOW FALL THIS MORNING. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG A PORTION OF THE NORTH SHORE WHERE A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF ICE PRESENT BUT IT WILL ONLY TAKE A LITTLE OPEN/THIN ICE TO ADD SOME TO THE SNOW TOTALS. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST...THEN COLDER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WE HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO WRING OUT SOME SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. WE DID INCREASE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT. WE ONLY EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE ICE COVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES TODAY. IT WILL BE COLDER FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE 15 TO 20 OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2015 THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHLAND WILL SEE LONG PERIODS IN WHICH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE REGION...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS NO POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OPPORTUNITY IN SIGHT. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN COLD AS ANOTHER NW FLOW BRINGS ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN ON EARLY SUNDAY...WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE IOWA REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -25 DEGREES OR COLDER DURING THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN CANADA. THIS BRING WARMER AIR TO THE NORTHLAND...BUT TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE NORTHLAND COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW AND ITS COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE NORTHLAND WILL GET ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST THU FEB 19 2015 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE REGION...WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WELL FOR A TIME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 17 7 14 -18 / 90 20 10 0 INL 17 -7 4 -27 / 90 20 10 0 BRD 23 7 13 -19 / 80 20 10 0 HYR 17 9 18 -15 / 90 30 10 10 ASX 17 8 18 -13 / 90 30 20 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI AVIATION...DAP  FXUS63 KDLH 160908 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 308 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 A generally quiet forecast through the day Sunday, with only increasing cloud cover and small chances of light snow over the far southern areas and along the North Shore of the forecast area on Sunday. For today, increasing cirrus clouds will be the main story as a weak mid-level impulse moves through the region. At the surface, an area of high pressure will translate across the Northland, which will keep drier air in place and inhibit any chances of precipitation. Overall, skies will be partly sunny, with highs a bit below seasonal average, in the upper teens and lower 20s. An upper-level low will build across the Intermountain West states today, which will keep the sub-tropical jet stream over the southern United States. Embedded lobes of vorticity in the large scale upper trough will eventually eject eastward into the Midwest region tonight. While the synoptic guidance keeps the bulk of the forcing to the south of the Northland (closer to a surface low pressure, progged to translate across the southern United States), the vorticity should be close enough to at least increase our cloud cover from the south late tonight and through the day Sunday. There is also the small potential for some light snow, mainly near the Brainerd area and points southeast towards Hinckley - only a limited area. It's unclear at this point if this light snow will even materialize as the models disagree on the amount of available moisture for precipitation, with the NAM keeping things dry through Sunday, as well as the hires guidance. Moreover, some small chances of lake effect snow will be possible due to eastern flow off Lake Superior. The latest MODIS satellite imagery does show less ice coverage over Lake Superior compared to a few days ago, so introduced some small chance pops along the North Shore during the day Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 238 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 A fairly quiet weather period next week with temperatures slightly below normal and a few chances for light snow, with the best chance for snow on Wednesday when northwest Wisconsin and parts of northeast Minnesota might see 1-3 inches. On the synoptic scale, a persistent mid/upper level longwave trough will develop over the southwest, resulting in southwesterly flow at mid/upper levels through next week and into next weekend. At low levels a weak cold front moves in from the northwest to start off the week cooler with some clouds, but little to no chance for precipitation outside a low chance for light lake effect snow along the south shore (subject to western Lake Superior ice coverage). High pressure builds in Tuesday leading to the coldest lows Monday night into Tuesday morning as skies clear out, with lows ranging from zero to 15 below zero, coldest in north-central Minnesota. Tuesday will probably be the best day to enjoy the great outdoors with mainly sunny skies, despite being the coldest day with highs in the upper single digits to near 20 above zero. Some locations might even get into the mid/upper 20s in northwest Wisconsin if skies are mostly sunny for the day as currently forecast. Mid-week, a widespread chance for snowfall arrives as a mid-level longwave trough ejects out of the southwest into the central and southern Great Plain and towards the Upper Great Lakes. The wave will be fairly broad with broad-scale lift across a very large area, without any significant surface low developing in response to the wave. However, with warm air advection across a broad area of low/mid level moisture ahead of the wave, there should be a sufficient response to produce a broad area of light snowfall across the Midwest. Precipitation chances will be best across northwest Wisconsin, less so in northeast Minnesota, with areas north and west of the Iron Range likely to receive less than an inch of snow. Otherwise, a broad chance for 1 to 3 inches of snowfall, beginning Wednesday afternoon and likely to be over well before the Thursday morning commute. This might have some minor impacts to the Wednesday evening commute in some spots. Late-week temperatures trend slightly warmer back towards normal values for this time of year, but guidance diverges a bit in terms of specifics. There is likely to be another chance for light precipitation late-Friday into Saturday, but timing and location differences between guidance and their ensembles leads to low confidence in any one time frame. However, given the forcing mechanism will be another broad shortwave trough approaching from the southwest, any precipitation amounts would be expected to be light. Highs warm up to the 20s on Saturday with a few spots in northwest Wisconsin near 30, which is right about normal for late February. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 15 2019 High pressure over the region will lead to mainly clear skies with light winds for most of the period. However, conditions still seem on track for potential early morning fog development over INL and possibly HIB. IFR conditions, potentially lower, are possible over INL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 19 3 18 2 / 0 0 10 10 INL 17 -7 18 -8 / 0 0 0 0 BRD 19 4 20 3 / 0 10 10 10 HYR 23 4 21 3 / 0 10 10 10 ASX 21 1 18 3 / 0 10 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...KC  FXUS63 KDLH 170934 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 334 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Relatively quiet weather continues through the day Monday, with some chances of light lake effect snow/flurries along the North Shore south to the Twin Ports today and tonight. An upper-level longwave trough will persist over the Intermountain West states through the day Monday, along with a sub-tropical jet rounding the base of the trough, over the southern United States. A surface low pressure system will remain over the central Mississippi River valley region today, well south of the Northland. However, this will result in northeasterly flow over the Northland through tonight, which will result in some chances of lake effect snowfall, which should remain light in nature. Some of the models are hinting at this lake effect snow, such as the NAMNest and WRF NMM models, as well as the 17.00z GFS model. The latest MODIS satellite imagery still shows a good bit of ice coverage over Lake Superior, with some breaks along the North Shore, which should be sufficient enough for some light snow to develop, along with 850mb-to-lake delta-T values between 13 to 18 degrees C. The main limiting factor will be a lack of deep-layer moisture, although some shallow saturation will be available to promote ice crystal growth. For now, snow accumulation will be light, with a coating to no more than a half inch possible. This lake effect snow should continue into the evening hours tonight, but will shift more southward due to a backing wind profile in the low-levels, so some light snow/flurries could linger near the Twin Ports and adjacent areas of the South Shore this evening. Some flurries will also be possible over our far southern counties due to forcing from the aforementioned large- scale trough. Highs today will range from the upper teens to lower 20s. Another chilly night is expected tonight, with some clearing skies to the north, which will promote some radiational cooling. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits to near zero south and lower teens below zero north. Monday looks to be drier at the moment as high pressure will slowly build back into the region, which will push the mid-level wave to the east. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny on Monday, with highs in the teens. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019 Below to near seasonable temperatures this week with a chance for measurable snowfall mid-week, then a prolonged chance for light snow late week into the weekend. On the synoptic scale, a fairly active pattern across North America, but locally generally low sensible weather impacts as the main storm track shifts to the south compared to earlier this month. The week begins with a mid/upper level longwave trough over the southwest with a few weak mid-level shortwave troughs across the Great Plains. One of these waves located over the northern Plains will track east towards the Great Lakes, leading to clouds Monday night into early Tuesday, but a very low chance for any precip. A broad area of high pressure builds across the Midwest on Tuesday leading to decreasing clouds, with southerly low level flow developing. The main longwave trough over the southwest slowly ejects into the southern Plains and Mississippi River Valley mid-week, leading to a broad area of large-scale lift producing light snowfall over much of the Midwest. Guidance continues to trend slightly east with the area of heaviest precipitation, though the latest 00z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive than the rest of the guidance suite. Generally around 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is possible, with the best chance for snow in northwest Wisconsin. The greatest impacts from this snow would likely be during the Wednesday morning commute, with snow quickly ending towards Wednesday evening. Areas in north-central Minnesota would be on the western edge of the snowfall, with locations like Brainerd and International Falls possibly only receiving a coating to an inch of snowfall. Just as one mid/upper level longwave trough ejects out of the southwest, another develops as a wave descends from the Pacific Northwest into the southwest to replace it late-week. Like the early/mid week pattern, this wave would also likely eject into the southern Great Plains producing a broad area of precipitation, though the track for this system would likely be a more southerly track than the early/mid week storm. There is greater than usual spread in terms of how far north/south the resultant precip may develop along with the intensity, but the guidance consensus is for a repeat of the mid-week snowfall, perhaps greater or less in intensity - more likely to be the same or less in intensity. A warming trend in temperatures with highs in the low 30s across northwest Wisconsin by Saturday, which is near normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1155 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 VFR conditions prevail through the period for all TAF sites except DLH. With east-northeasterly flow over Lake Superior, lake induced lower ceilings with some flurries/light snow will move over the North Shore and affect DLH tonight into the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 18 0 15 -2 / 30 10 0 0 INL 18 -9 11 -12 / 0 0 0 10 BRD 21 -1 15 -7 / 10 10 0 0 HYR 22 2 18 -1 / 0 10 0 0 ASX 19 1 16 0 / 0 10 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...KC  FXUS63 KDLH 280845 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 An upper low will move out of the Arctic into northern Saskatchewan today then head south reaching the southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border by 00Z Saturday. A fast quasi-zonal flow will occur across the Northland prior to this upper low nearing the region with a shortwave arriving Friday bringing a chance for light snow to much of the Northland. Portions of northern Minnesota will be brushed by the southern portions of an area of low pressure that will track through Manitoba into Ontario today. Clouds will increase over northern Minnesota into far northern Wisconsin through the day and there may be some flurries over parts of far northern Minnesota. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, generally from 20 to 25. Light snow will spread southwest to northeast through much of the Northland on Friday with snow likely over all but far northern Minnesota by Friday afternoon. Snow amounts will vary from less than an inch along the International Border to 1 to 3 inches elsewhere Friday into Friday evening. Areas south of US Highway 2, including northern Wisconsin will have the best chance at seeing the higher accumulation. Highs will again be below normal and range from the upper teens to mid twenties. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 Overall, the extended forecast period continues to show mostly dry conditions, with temperatures continuing to be near to well-below seasonal average. Dangerous wind chills will be likely this upcoming weekend. The remnants of a compact mid-level shortwave, progged to be situated over the SE SD/NW IA/SW MN region, will continue to translate eastward Friday night and Saturday morning, resulting in some light accumulating snowfall, mainly over our eastern areas. Generally between 0.5 to 1.5 inches of new snow accumulation is expected Friday evening (on top of what falls Friday morning and afternoon), with lighter amounts possible for adjacent areas of northeast Minnesota. This could lead to some slick road conditions for the Friday evening commute. As the compact wave shifts eastward, a large-scale upper-level low will develop over Manitoba, and continue over northern Ontario through the upcoming weekend. This upper-level low should help to usher in some arctic air, characterized by 850 mb temperatures in the -20 to -30 degree C range. This, coupled with some gusty winds, will lead to dangerous wind chill values between -25 to -40 degrees Saturday night/Sunday morning, and again for Sunday night/Monday morning. Overnight lows over the weekend will fall into the teens below zero. Highs on Sunday will only warm into the single digits above zero. The upper-level low will eventually move out of the region during the early part of next week, but a few additional shortwaves will move through the region Monday and Tuesday, which could bring some cloud cover and chances of light snow. The main impact will most likely be along the Lake Superior snowbelt region, where prolonged chances of lake effect snow will be possible. However, the lake effect snow potential will largely depend on how much lake ice there is. The latest MODIS satellite imagery from yesterday shows most of western Lake Superior is covered in lake ice, and with temperatures not expected to warm to above freezing through the upcoming week, lake ice coverage should remain quite dominant. However, by mid- week, temperatures will rebound a bit, but remain below freezing, as high pressure ridging builds in from the west. High temperatures could make a return to the 20s above zero for Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 High pressure nearby has resulted in VFR for the first half of the forecast. Some flurries may affect INL after 09Z and have a VCSH mention due to low confidence in timing. By mid morning, MVFR cigs will begin to push into the vicinity of INL/HIB/BRD ahead of the next round of light snow/area of low pressure. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 21 3 21 2 / 0 10 80 30 INL 20 -4 19 -5 / 10 10 20 20 BRD 20 0 20 -2 / 0 10 80 10 HYR 23 2 24 2 / 0 10 80 50 ASX 24 6 23 6 / 0 0 80 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melde LONG TERM...JTS AVIATION...GSF