FXUS61 KCTP 190922 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 522 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COLD FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.78UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL PA...WHILE FOG A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE S TIER...WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. LATEST 3KM HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 13-14Z. LINE OF BKN CU NOTED OVR NW PA AND S TIER OF NY STATE MARKS THE LOCATION OF A WEAK TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LATER TODAY ACROSS MTNS OF NE PA. NO SVR WX THREAT INDICATED...AS MDL CAPES BLW 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR WEAK. ON BALANCE MSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL PA WITH A FEW EXTRA CU ACROSS THE N MTNS. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 17C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... POTENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE NR LK SUPERIOR WILL TRACK ENE RATHER THAN SE...SO AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES PA TONIGHT IT WILL BE WITH WANING LG SCALE SUPPORT. 03Z SREF DATA SUGGESTS SLIGHT CHC POPS AT BEST ALONG THE N MTNS...WITH A DRY FCST FURTHER SOUTH. SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS ARE PROGGED TO PASS ACROSS UPSTATE NY LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A STRETCH OF DRY WX. DESPITE THE EXPECTATION OF A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY BASED ON MDL 850 TEMPS...WHICH ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M70S N MTNS...TO M80S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FRI NITE LOOKING QUITE COOL ACROSS NORTHERN PA...WHERE GEFS NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES INDICATE A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY...RESULTING LOW LVL SERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER MAX TEMPS THAN 850 TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED THE HIGHS TOWARD MET GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO OUTPERFORM THE GFS MOS IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY...DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GRT LKS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA. OPER AND ENSEMBLE MDL DATA FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...LENDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT CENTRAL PA WILL SEE A ROUND OF SHOWERS WORKING THRU BTWN SAT NITE AND SUN NITE. BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY COME SUN AFTN WITH BENEFIT OF DIURNAL HEATING. MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ECMWF ENS MEAN 500 PATTERN SHOWING UPPER TROF SLOWING DOWN OR CUTTING OFF ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE GEFS MORE PROGRESSIVE. HAVE TRIED TO STRIKE A BALANCE BTWN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...KEEPING A LOW CHC OF SHRA IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SE ZONES THRU TUESDAY. ARRIVAL OF NEXT COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY ARND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WITH IT THE NEXT CHC OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE NR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SOME EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SOME MID LVL CLDS WILL WORK INTO THE NW MTS LATER THIS AFT. SOME CLDS MAY GET AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AT ROUTE 6...BUT THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING FOG FOR FRI AND SAT...HARD TO SEE ANYTHING GOING ON. AS I WAS THINKING LAST NIGHT...SHOWERS NOT REAL LIKELY ON SAT...MORE OF A SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENT. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SUN-MON...MVFR AND IFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/TYBURSKI AVIATION...MARTIN  FXUS61 KCTP 200927 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 527 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEK. ONE SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH PA OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF AS A CLOSED LOW OVR THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ARRIVE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DWINDLING CONVECTION ALONG WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE NY/PA BORDER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SHORTWAVE ROTATING ACROSS UPSTATE NY...WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE LG SCALE FORCING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL PASS INTO NEW ENG...LEAVING THE DYING COLD FRONT TO SAG INTO CENTRAL PA WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. BASED ON RUC13 DATA AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WILL MENTION JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF A SHRA ARND DAWN OVR THE MTNS N OF IPT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY. HOWEVER...LATEST MODIS IMAGERY AND 3KM HRRR DATA SUGGEST THE FOG WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAY. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CU SHOULD BE ALONG DYING FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA...WHILE NORTHEAST PA IS LIKELY TO BECOME MSUNNY WITH ARRIVAL OF NEG PWAT ANOMALIES LATER TDY. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS FROM U70S N MTNS...TO NR 90F S TIER VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TRANQUIL WX SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THE LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST PA WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE U40S LIKELY NORTH OF IPT. SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS NEW ENG ON SATURDAY...LIKELY KEEPING MOST OF CENTRAL PA DRY...BUT RESULTING LOW LVL SERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN THE MDL 850S TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST. IN ADDITION...A VEIL OF CIRRUS COULD HOLD TEMPS EVEN LOWER. HAVE THEREFORE HELD HIGHS NR THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH TENDS TO OUTPERFORM THE GFS MOS IN COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIOS. INCREASING LG SCALE FORCING AND LOW LVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR WEST TOWARDS SAT EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA THE WET WEATHER SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NITE OR SUNDAY AS A SLOWLY DIGGING UPPER TROF INTERACTS WITH THE DEEPER RETURNING MOISTURE. THIS IS WHEN WE GET THE PW TO SURGE TO 1 TO 1.5 SDS ABOVE NORMAL TOO. SO...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME SOAKING RAINFALL GIVEN ANOMALOUS PW OVER 1.5 INCHES. BULK OF MED RANGE MDL DATA NOW COMING IN LINE WITH THE IDEA OF UPPER TROF CUTTING OFF OVR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND CHC OF SHRA...WHILE LOWERING THE DAYTIME TEMPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD FINALLY BE ABSORBED BY NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF WORKING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCLUDED THE CHC OF A TSRA WED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. HOWEVER...LOW PWATS FROM LATEST GEFS SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WIDELY SCT AT BEST. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN WAKE OF WEDNESDAY/S COLD FRONT. LATEST GEFS 850 TEMPS OF 12-14C SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND L80S LATE NEXT WEEK WITH LOW HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NY BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT BFD. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT SINCE TEMPS ARE NOT DROPPING MUCH...AND FRONT MAY KICK UP A SLIGHT BREEZE AT TIMES...THINK FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLD OFF TO SUNDAY. FROM SUNDAY INTO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUE...LOOKING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS SYSTEM TRIES TO CUT OFF. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM FOG...THEN VFR. SCT TSRA PSBL SAT EVENING/NIGHT. SUN-TUE...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...MARTIN  FXUS61 KCTP 271058 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 658 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE WHOLE WORK WEEK. VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE COOL EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FOG ENHANCEMENT OF THE IR SHOWS FOG STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTH. DEWPOINT PUSHING STEADILY DOWN AT KBFD...WITH AIR TEMP DOWN TO 43F ALREADY. WITH MORNING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S-L50S AND RAPID MIXING...THE FOG SHOULD BURN AWAY IN A HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. THEN...SUNNY. SFC ANTICYCLONE CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD TODAY. 8H TEMPS DO NOT MOVE MUCH UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...AND WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THUR. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THUR AND TODAY WILL BE THE LACK OF CLOUDS TODAY AND A DEEPER MIXED LAYER - PERHAPS UP TO 800MB TODAY. THIS SHOULD HELP MOST SPOTS TO GET A FEW DEGS WARMER TODAY THAN THUR...ESP THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS. BUT DRY ADIABATIC MIXING UP TO 800MB ONLY GIVES THEM LOWER 70S AT BEST. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER TERRIFIC RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. NO CLOUDS...NIL WIND AND EVER-LESSENING SOLAR TIME. UPPER 30S EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE NRN MTS. NOT QUITE COOL ENUF TO SWEAT ABOUT A FROST ADVY...BUT 10-12F BELOW NORMS. 8H TEMPS DO RISE A FEW DEGS OVERNIGHT...BUT DECOUPLING WILL HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE SFC WILL STAY IN IT/S SPOT OVER THE ERN US...AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL JOIN IT BY SAT NIGHT/SUN. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND. VALLEY FOG WILL AGAIN FORM IN THE NRN AND CENT MTS EARLY SAT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN STREAM WATER TEMPS AND AIR TEMP. . 8H TEMPS CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD...REACHING +16C LOCALLY BY SAT AFTN. BEST WARMING WILL BE TO OUR W AND N AS RIDGE DIRECTS WARMEST AIR INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ERN CANADA. MAXES WILL GET ABOUT 5F ABOVE NORMS SAT AND ANOTHER 5 OR 6F HIGHER ON SUN. MUCH OF THE SE WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT 90F WITH 8H TEMPS UP TO +20C. MIN TEMPS SUN AM SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SAT AM. THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR IS JUST SO PARCHED SHOULD LEAD TO LESS OF THE VALLEY AREAS GETTING FOGGED IN ON SUN AM. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... STRONG RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID-WEEK. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE AUGUST CLIMATOLOGY...RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION AND SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE WEST-COAST TROUGH FCST TO EJECT NEWD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY WED-THUR. HPC MANUAL PROGS SHOW AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE-WED AND APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA THUR-FRI. THIS TIMING IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z GFS/GEFS AND OP ECMWF/CANADIAN. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING...THEN REMAIN PARKED OVER THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRING OF NEARLY CLOUDLESS DAYS AND LIGHT WINDS. THE ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 14Z. DRYING GROUND AND MILDER NIGHTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG THIS WEEKEND WITH CENTRAL PA TERMINALS LIKELY REMAINING FOG FREE. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD  FXUS61 KCTP 280821 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 421 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2010 .SYNOPSIS... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. AT TIMES A 5940 M CONTOUR...INDICATIVE OF A HEAT WAVE...WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SWEEP THRU THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 11-3.7U MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG FORMING IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON OBS FROM YESTERDAY AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BY 14Z. SINKING AIR BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES LATER TODAY. SREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS NEAR 15C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS BTWN 80-85F...ACCOMPANIED BY LOW HUMIDITY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... HI PRES AND DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY DENDRITIC FOG PATTERN IN THE DEEP STREAM/RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVR PA ON SUNDAY. SREF MEAN 850 HPA TEMPS RISE TO ARND 18C...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS BTWN 85-90F UNDER NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO BEGIN THIS PERIOD WITH GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...TO BE SUPPLANTED BY DRY AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...IT APPEARS THIS WARM SPELL WILL FEATURE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LOW HUMIDITY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. LATEST MED RANGE MDL DATA ALL SEEM TO INDICATE EARL WILL RE-CURVE AWAY FROM E COAST LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GRT LKS. FURTHER WEST...GEFS KEEPING PA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN ANOMALOUSLY LOW PW OF LESS THAN 1 INCH UNDER THE 594 DM 500 MB CENTER. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHC OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE WED AND THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH "RING OF FIRE" ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY LATE WEEK...ALLOWING A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE PICTURE BY LATE THU OR FRIDAY. GEFS PLUME DATA INDICATES MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THIS FROPA FOR IT/S NEXT CHC OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...UNIMPRESSIVE PWATS SUGGEST SIG RAINFALL IS NOT LIKELY. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. ONLY PROBLEM FOR AVIATION WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CIGS ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PA LATE TONIGHT...WITH KBFD/KIPT THE TWO LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. AT BFD... EXPECT VSBY AND CEILING TO DROP TO LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD JUST BEFORE 12Z. AT IPT...VSBYS MAY NOT DROP BELOW MVFR... BUT EXPECT A LOW /IFR/ CIG TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY TOWARDS SUNRISE. ONCE ANY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER A RETURN OF SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS SAT NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /SUN-WED/ LOOKS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL. OUTLOOK... SUN...PATCHY AM FOG/LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. MON-WED...GENERALLY VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR/EVANEGO  FXUS61 KCTP 020917 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 517 AM EDT SAT OCT 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND...BECOMING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING INTO WESTERN PA PROVIDING THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATION FOG THIS MORNING. LATEST MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. LATEST LAV GUIDANCE AND HRRR SFC RH SUGGEST FOG BURNS OFF BY ARND 13Z. BFD CURRENTLY DOWN TO 34F. HOWEVER...MESONET OBS GENERALLY WARMER...SO ANY FROST WILL SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST. UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE GRT LKS ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHRA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN WESTWARD THRU ILLINOIS. INCREASING ISENT LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO A QUICKLY THICKENING CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 50S. BASED ON LATEST SREF OUTPUT...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHC OF SHRA ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE IN THE DAY. IN CONTRAST...MSUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SE PENN ZONES SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS NR NORMAL WITH AFTN MAXES IN THE U60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHRA SHOULD GRIND TO A HALT TONIGHT...AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH AND BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVR OHIO. ALL MDL DATA SHOWING ASSOCIATED LL JET AND PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS TRAINED OVR WESTERN PA TONIGHT...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVR WARREN CO. WEAKENING SFC RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PA SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT. COOLEST TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE MTNS N OF IPT...WHERE SKIES REMAIN PTCLDY AND DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. CAN/T RULE OUT A TOUCH OF FROST UP THERE WITH MINS IN THE M30S. AS UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVR THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...SECONDARY COASTAL LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS...DRAWING INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN PA. ANY SUNSHINE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING CHC OF SHRA ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS A BIT COOLER THAN TDY WITH MAXES FROM L50S NW MTNS TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE IN SYNC WITH EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY...ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTING THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF PA BY THURSDAY. OPER GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN LIFTING UPPER LOW OUT TOO EARLY. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A WETTER AND COOLER FCST MON-WED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF UPPER LOW SHOULD PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN OVR THE STATE. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WON/T LIKELY HAVE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED OF THURSDAY/S SYSTEM...THE LONG DURATION COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS. LATEST GEM/EC BLEND SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES IS QUITE POSSIBLE. WARMER AND DRIER CONDS APPEAR LIKELY TO RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGGING SE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS WE HEAD INTO SAT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT THOUGH...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG MAINLY IN THE NW AND CENT MTNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W/NW. AS S/W APPROACHES...VFR CLOUD DECK ACROSS NW MTNS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE SE WILL SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND TREND TOWARD AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SCATTERED SHOWERS DRIFT INTO THE NW MTNS SAT EVE AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR TO MVFR. SCT SHOWERS...ACROSS WESTERN HALF. MON...VFR CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. NUMEROUS SHOWERS. TUE-WED...MVFR...IFR POSS EAST. SCT SHOWERS MAINLY EAST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...CERU/RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 100945 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 545 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE STATE NEXT THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TEMPS ALREADY NR 32F OVR THE N MTNS AS OF 09Z WITH ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GO. IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE N MTNS THIS AM...MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY NICELY SHOWING VALLEY FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z BASED ON LATEST 3KM HRRR. UPSTREAM SATL IMAGERY SUGGESTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION TODAY...HELPING TEMPS REBOUND FROM THE COOL MORNING. SREF MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 13C SUPPORT HIGHS FROM NR 70F NORTH...TO THE U70S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHRA OR TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PA. 03Z SREF INDICATING CAPES BTWN 500-1000J/KG BY AFTN ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...THE LG SCALE FORCING LOOKS WEAK WITH UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDING EAST INTO THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY CHC OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVR THE W MTNS SHOULD FADE AFTER SUNSET AND LOSS OF SFC HEATING. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL AND MILDER THAN SAT NIGHT...AS HIGHER DWPTS PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION ON LIGHT SW FLOW. QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA MONDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LG SCALE FORCING TO RESULT IN A BETTER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA THAN TODAY. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS OF NR 40PCT ACROSS THE N TIER BASED ON EXPECTED POSITION OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LPS RTS AND INCREASING MID LVL FLOW SUPPORT THE SLIGHT CHC OF SVR WX ISSUED BY SPC FOR MONDAY AFTN. A FAIR AMT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH MIDDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S /PERHAPS L80S SOUTHERN VALLEYS/. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO SPEED OF GRT LKS SHORTWAVE MON NITE AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...BULK OF ENSEMBLE DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THE 00Z GFS IS A SLOW OUTLIER. THUS...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A SREF/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH PUSHES FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MON NITE AND EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE BEST CHC OF SHRA ACROSS NORTHERN PA MON NITE. FOCUS OF SHRA THEN SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN PA EARLY TUESDAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE MASON DIXON BY AFTN. LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CAA BEHIND FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER TUESDAY...ESP NORTHERN PA WHERE READINGS NOT LIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HI PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVR CENTRAL PA ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SUPPLYING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. HOWEVER...COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR LATE WEEK AS LONG WAVE PATTERN FEATURES RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND A CORRESPONDING FALL IN HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN CONUS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF SHORTWAVES...BUT ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATING A DIGGING TROF OVR THE GRT LKS THURS/FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHC OF SHRA BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO DROPPED DAYTIME TEMPS TO BLW NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE WEEK. A RETURN TO MILDER AND MORE SETTLED CONDS APPEARS LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD LAYER IN THE LOWER FEW THOUSAND FEET TODAY...WITH JUST A FEW HI CLDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A NICE EARLY FALL DAY. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG BTWN 9 AND 13Z ON MONDAY...BUT WILL LOOK THIS OVER BEFORE I SEND THE 12Z PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...MID AND HI CLDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY... AS COLD FRONT TRIES TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH...AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER ON MONDDAY...THEN MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON WED. OUTLOOK... MON...VFR TODAY. MVFR CONDS IN WIDESPREAD SHWRS LATE MON NITE...ESP WRN SXNS. TUE...MVFR/VFR CONDS EARLY TUE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. WED...VFR. THU...MVFR/VFR CONDS IN SHOWERS EARLY...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-037- 041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD AVIATION...MARTIN  FXUS61 KCTP 130803 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 403 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2011 .SYNOPSIS... TWO COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE BRINGS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WELCOME TO DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME. WV STLT LOOP SHOWS COMPACT CYC CIRCULATION MOVG INTO WESTERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING..WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VLY STRADDLING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW HAS PUSHED EWD ACRS PA WITH LLVL CAA AND RELATIVELY MOIST OVER-LAKE TRAJECTORY SPREADING BKN-OVC STRATOCU SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VLY REGION. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME LGT -SHSN SKIRTING THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY -FZDZ IS PSBL GIVEN LACK OF ICE INTRODUCTION ALOFT AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS BTWN -6 TO -8C. THE NW MTNS WILL REMAIN VULNERABLE TO AN OCNL BRIEF -SHSN TDY AS SECONDARY COLD FNT/SFC TROUGH DROPS SWD FM SRN ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCT AT BEST AS THE BEST LL CAA AND OVER-LAKE FLOW IS COUNTERED BY S/W RIDGING ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE EARLY MORNG H5 SYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF LAKE ERIE IS FROZEN PER HI RES MODIS STLT IMAGE FROM 3/8. THE PERSISTENT LL CAA AND DENSE STRATOCU CVRG WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 30S OVR THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS AND NRN MTNS..WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGS BLW SEASONAL AVGS. MEANWHILE GUSTY WNWLY DOWNSLOPE SHOULD AFFORD A FEW MORE BREAKS IN CLOUDS E OF THE MTNS ESP INTO THE LWR SUSQ VLY WHERE AFTN READINGS WILL CLIMB TO WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO /MID 40S CENTRAL MTNS TO NEAR 50F IN THE SE/. THE LAST IN WHAT HAS BEEN A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE CYC FLOW OVR THE GRT LKS REGION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AT THE END OF THE PD. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMT OF CLOUDS OVER THE N/W COUNTIES..BEFORE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN UPSTREAM LEADS TO MORE SUNSHINE TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE BUT STILL VERY SEASONABLE FOR MID MARCH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A FAIRLY ZONAL BUT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL DOMINATE CHANCES FOR PCPN...OPPOSED TO MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROFFING/SURFACE PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SEEN IN THE PAST WEEK. A LARGE BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK...PROVIDING ESSENTIALLY NIL POPS AND DECREASING CLOUDS. GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH ASSCD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TUESDAY INTO THROUGH PA AND INTO NEW ENG BY 12Z THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND NOW THE GFS SPREAD A CHILLY RAIN OF 1 TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH/12 HR INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PENN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LEFTOVER DRY...AND SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS COULD GREATLY IMPACT FCST TEMPS FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD /BY 10F OR MORE/ SHOULD THE PRECIP SHIELD SPREAD FURTHER NORTH /PER THE EC AND SVRL WETTER GEFS MEMBERS/ - AND COOL TO THE CHILLY WET BULB TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS TRICKY/SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE...AND EMBEDDED IN THE NRN STREAM WILL...TO PASS AND BE EAST OF PA BY EARLY THURSDAY...RETURNING FAIR WX TO THE AREA INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS COULD AVERAGE 10-12F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A TASTE OF SPRING. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TWO COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM THE GRT LKS INTO THE NE STATES THIS PD. A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTN. MOIST CYC WNWLY FLOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO BFD/JST WITH AN OCNL -SHSN AT BFD. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER SHALLOW MSTR OVR THE MTNS THUS SOME PATCHY FZDZ WILL BE PSBL EARLY THIS MRNG BUT NOT WORTH MENTION IN 06Z TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW PROB FOR IFR CIGS INVOF BFD. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL E/SE OF THE MTNS WITH SCT-BKN CIGS IN THE 035-060 RANGE. CANT RULE OUT A TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT AOO/UNV/IPT. WNW SFC WNDS 8-15KTS GUSTING BTWN 20-25KTS. HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE MONDAY WITH RETURN TO VFR FLYING THRU TUE AFTN. OUTLOOK... MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. TUE...CHC OF RAIN/LOW CIGS LATE...MAINLY SOUTH. WED...CHC OF RAIN/LOW CIGS. THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... SUNBURY IS NOW RIGHT AT FS/24FT AND WILL CANCEL ONCE THE NEXT OB COMES IN BLW FS. REMAINING MAIN STEM PTS STILL IN FLOOD ARE FORECAST TO FALL BLW FS THIS AFTN...WITH MARIETTA THE LAST PT FALLING BLW FS BY LATE TONIGHT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER AVIATION...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL HYDROLOGY...STEINBUGL  FXUS61 KCTP 270842 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 442 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE...COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY EARLY TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE IMPORTANT COASTAL STORM IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING NORTHERN EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE GRAZING SOUTHERN PA. MDL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OF ARND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVR SOMERSET CO SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE. WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF OROGRAPHIC FORCING...AREAS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE NO ACCUM. 3KM HRRR INDICATES ANY SNOW ACROSS THE S TIER WILL END BY ARND 9 AM. SATL DERIVED PWATS SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR MASS OVR THE GRT LKS POISED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL PA LATER TODAY...AS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE E COAST. THUS...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TO WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...WITH SUNNY SKIES EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTH BY AFTN. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -12C WILL SUPPORT AFTN MAXES FROM JUST THE U20S NW MTNS TO THE L/M 40S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH MINS ARND 15F BLW NORMAL. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE CLEAR SKIES...LGT WINDS AND DRY AIR TO ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SNOW COVERED N MTNS /MODIS BAND 7 IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENT OF SNOW COVER BEAUTIFULLY/...TO ARND 20F IN THE SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY...OTHER THAN A SUBTLE BACKING OF THE BLYR FLOW...WHICH COULD DRAW A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT STRATO CU INTO THE NW MTNS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH NW WINDS A BIT GUSTIER THAN TODAY...WHICH COULD HAVE FIRE WX IMPLICATIONS OVR THE SOUTH. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -8C TO -12C RANGE...SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO TODAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MED RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKING DOWN NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN RIDING ACROSS THE NATION. A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE FIRST SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH SREF AND GEFS DATA SUGGEST A SFC LOW TRACK WELL SOUTH OF PA WITH A POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL LIKELY CARVE OUT A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AN EAST COAST STORM. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONGST MDLS AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AMT OF PHASING ALONG THE E COAST. THUS...HAVE KEPT POPS ONLY ARND 30 PCT LATE NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...READINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT BLW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION OVERNIGHT THRU SUNDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL SKIRT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF PA AS THIS STORM SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF PA...WITH ANY PRECIP FALLING IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PA BETWEEN 09-12Z. BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BY 15Z VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO ALL RTES. OUTLOOK... SUN NGT THRU WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED...EXCEPT POSS OCNL MVFR AT KBFD. THU...MVFR POSS WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 060659 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 259 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP PENNSYLVANIA IN A DRY NW FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THE BLOCK SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE TO OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE VICINITY OF COLUMBIA AND SCHUYLKILL COUNTIES...WHERE RAIN FELL LAST EVENING. OTHERWISE...A CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT IN PROGRESS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVR THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ON MONDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES. H5 RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AS 850 T WARMS TO +14C TO +16C BY 00Z TUESDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VARIABLE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVR THE STATE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME RISK OF AN MCS AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY...AS BULK OF MDL DATA PICKING UP ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY UPPER RIDGE...WITH POSSIBLE SITES ON CENTRAL PA AS EARLY AS TUES MORNING. THE WARM UP WILL BE ON BY TUESDAY...AS SFC HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF PA...ALLOWING WARMER RETURN SW FLOW TO TAKE HOLD. 850 TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L/M80S...ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. LEFT POPS IN THE LOW RANGE...BUT DID CUT AREA BACK TO EXCLUDE THE SE SOME. BLOCKING PATTERN OVR THE ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK...ALLOWING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXPAND NEWRD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT A TERRAIN INDUCED TSRA WED AFTN. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVR MOST OF THE AREA. GEFS ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 20C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM U80S MT NS AND 90-95F IN THE VALLEYS. DID EDGE TEMPS UP SOME... MAINLY AT NIGHT. ANOTHER HOT DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHC OF PM TSRA AS HGTS FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE GRT LKS. RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONGST MDL GUIDANCE THRU SAT...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A DYING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THRU PA FRIDAY. WENT WITH A DRY FCST AFTER 00Z SAT. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR FOG TOWARD 12Z. KLNS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE AT TEMPORARY IFR FOG CONDITIONS SINCE THEY HAD RAIN EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VFR RETURNS AFT 13Z AREAWIDE WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONTINUING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. OUTLOOK... TUE-FRI...PRIMARILY VFR WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. CHANCE OF AN AFTN OR EVENING SHRA/TSRA EACH DAY. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DEVOIR LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...CERU/RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 120923 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 523 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS PRODUCING A NEARLY CLOUDLESS MORNING OVER CENTRAL PA. 07Z MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN PA...WHERE COOL AIR IN CONTACT WITH RELATIVELY WARMER RIVER/STREAM WATER. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 8-9AM. RETURN FLOW WAA PRODUCING PATCHY CLOUDINESS ACROSS S ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY GRAZE NORTHERN PA LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH NOTHING ON RADAR NOW...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS THE N TIER LATER TODAY...AS ATMOS WARMS/DESTABILIZES. FURTHER SOUTH...ANOMALOUS PWATS PROGGED BY THE GEFS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PA SHOULD ENSURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE STATE. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS NR 14C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS FROM THE U70S MTNS...TO L/M80S IN THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT...AS PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR RAD COOLING...WITH SFC HIGH OVR THE AREA AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS REMAINING. MOST PLACES LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S...ALTHOUGH NORMAL COOL SPOTS OF THE NORTH COULD DIP TO THE U40S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF THE E COAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. RISING DWPTS...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD RESULT IN SCT AFTN CONVECTION...CONCENTRATED MAINLY ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN PA SHOULD HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE SUN EXPECTED OVR THE SUSQ VALLEY...LIKELY PUSHING TEMPS THERE INTO THE L/M80S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE SPREAD AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF DIGGING TROF OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND...ALL OF WHICH SHOW TROF EVOLVING INTO A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...AS SFC LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE AND GEFS PWAT/SOUTHERLY LOW LVL WIND ANOMALIES ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE. 00Z GEFS INDICATING MEAN RAINFALL OF BTWN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS OVER 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. FLASH FLOOD AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE REMAIN QUITE HIGH...SO NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING ATTM. RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE CUTOFF WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE DECAYING CLOSED LOW OFF OF THE COAST LATER TUESDAY...BUT DAMP CONDITIONS MAY LINGER FOR A PART OF THE DAY BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH RISING HEIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE MIDDLE TO SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WARY OF ADDITIONAL CANADIAN ENERGY CRESTING THE UPPER MIDWESTERN RIDGE FOR WED-THU WHICH MAY PREVENT WHOLESALE UPPER RIDGING FROM BUILDING EAST OF THE GLAKS REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR WED- THU WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK CLOSED LOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP UNDER THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRANSITION TO NEAR NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS MID TO LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DECENT INVERSIONS SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PA...EXPECT LOCAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO AGAIN FORM TOWARD SUNRISE...AFFECTING IPT AND POSS BFD. ANY FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z. VFR FLYING WILL RESUME AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR BCMG MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY IN MOST AREAS BY SAT NGT. SUN-MON...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND ISOLD TSTMS. TUE...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...CERU/RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 260845 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 445 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE IRENE WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY MAKE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE HARDLY ANY EFFECTS FROM THE STORM. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE HURRICANE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT AIR IS GETTING DRIER AT THE SAME TIME. WINDS OFF THE LAKE ARE CREATING LOW CLOUDS AND MAY EVEN MAKE A SPOT OF DZ ACROSS THE N VERY EARLY THIS AM. IN GENERAL...THOUGH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE A REALLY NICE DAY. TOWERING CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...AS THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEATING SURFACES COMBINE FORCES. LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMAL. EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN THOSE CLOUDS...AND HIGHS TODAY WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MILDER THAN NORMS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LITTLE TO SPEAK OF FOR WX ON THE PERIPHERY OF EYE-RENE. BUT...THERE MAY BE AN ADVANCE BAND OF CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH MAY TRY TO POKE INTO THE SERN COS LATER AT NIGHT. QUITE A DEWPOINT/PWAT/THETA-E GRADIENT FROM E TO WEST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE HWRF IS CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST...WHILE THE MAJORITY OF REGIONAL AND GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER...WITH THE GFS 2ND CLOSEST FOLLOWED BY THE NAM...THE ECMWF/UKMET TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK BUT SIMILAR IN SPEED TO THE NAM...AND THE CANADIAN WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT. THE GFS HAS MADE A JOG TO THE WEST TOWARD THE CONSISTENTLY-LEFT ECMWF...WHILE ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS OFFSHORE. A SIMILAR TREND IS NOTED IN THE MAJORITY OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK HAS FOLLOWED ALONG AS WELL. OVERALL THE SPREAD IS RELATIVELY NARROW BUT A SHARP GRADIENT OF TROPICAL RNFL ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM STILL MAKES THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT/UNCERTAIN. ON A LARGER SCALE...SUBTLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIANCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COMPLICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPEARS TO PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN THE PATH OF IRENE. THEREFORE CONTINUED TO USE A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OR ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR GRIDDED POPS AND QPF. EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA STILL HAS THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING NEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THESE POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN THE HWO. IRENE IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO A LG SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY NWLY CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND REBOUNDING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF IRENE SHOULD AFFORD A SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF AND HRRR DATA BOTH SUPPORT IFR CONDS THRU ARND 13Z AT IPT...MDT AND LNS. OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS THE NW MTNS /BFD/...WHERE BKN STRATOCU HAS KEPT FOG A BAY SO FAR. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MDL DATA SUGGESTS LOW CIGS OR DENSE FOG IS LIKELY AT BFD FOR A COUPLE HOURS SURROUNDING DAWN. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHERE DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN AND GROUND NOT AS WET. A BRIEF DIP TO IFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AT AOO AND UNV BTWN 10Z-12Z. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL MOST STUBBORN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE. 03Z SREF DATA INDICATES IFR CONDS COULD PERSIST AT BFD UNTIL ARND NOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF TO VFR CONDS MOST SPOTS DURING THE LATE AM HOURS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT-BKN CU. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PM TSRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA IN VICINITY OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. OUTLOOK... FRI...AM FOG POSSIBLE. SAT...ISOLATED AFTN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. SUN...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EASTERN PA. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KCTP 160926 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 526 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST TO NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS NORTH OF I-80 COULD ACTUALLY SEE A FREEZE THIS AM /JOHNSONBURG 31F AT 08Z/. HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT OBS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN THE M30S AND L40S. TODAY WILL DAWN MSUNNY OVER ALL BUT THE NW MTNS..WHERE STRATOCU CONTINUE TO BLOW OFF LK ERIE. HOWEVER...IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THICKENING CIRRUS UPSTREAM IN ADVANCE OF MIDWEST SHORTWAVE. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...EXPECT GRADUALLY THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA TDY...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPS A BIT UNDER WHAT THE 850 TEMPS COULD SUPPORT. MAX READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U50S MTNS...TO M60S SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE SLIDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...HELPING TO GENERATE AN AREA OF BKN TO POSSIBLY OVC MID CLOUDS. SHOULD THIS EVENT NOT UNFOLD AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT POSSIBLE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH...AS PWATS WILL REMAIN LOW AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED DIRECTLY OVR PA. MDL DATA TRACKS SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SFC HIGH PRES AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN OVR THE REGION...SO FCST REMAINS DRY. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST A BRIGHTENING TREND BY SAT AFTN...AS LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF TROF SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE ADDED SUNSHINE COULD PUSH TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH MOST SPOTS WELL INTO THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL MDL DATA INDICATING LG SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENG SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THRU CENTRAL PA. THUS...OUR STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WX SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GEFS PWATS REMAIN IN THE -1 TO -2SD RANGE...INDICATING THE CHILLY MORNINGS WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AM. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PENN. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND STRETCH OUT SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A POSSIBLE...BRIEF 12 HOUR OR SO PERIOD WITH LOWER POPS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND...AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND BRING A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED TO SCTD AFTERNOON TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GEFS AND EC BOTH INDICATE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS NEXT WEEK...AS SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH DRAWS WARMER AIR INTO THE STATE. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PERSIST ACROSS PA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. THOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION IN MOST PLACES. VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NW WINDS. OUTLOOK... SAT-TUE...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-010- 011. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 180934 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 534 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DYING COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING STRATOCU BANKED AGAINST THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...AND VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PA. SHORT RANGE MDL DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS THIS LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT TO MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BY LATE AM. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE LANCASTER/YORK COUNTIES...WHERE STRATOCU COULD BACK IN FROM THE MOIST EASTERLY FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OFF THE COAST. THE SUNSHINE TODAY SHOULD HELP MODIFY OUR COOL AIR MASS...WITH AFTN READINGS A COUPLE DEGS HIGHER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS NR 6C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE M/U60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRATOCU TONIGHT AS BLYR COOLS AND PERSISTENT SERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ASCEND THE MTNS. ELSEWHERE...CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY ONE...AS DRY AIR MASS RESULTS IN CONDS FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CAN/T RULE OUT A TOUCH OF FROST OVR THE N MTNS...WHERE TEMPS LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE 30S. STAGNANT WX PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ON MONDAY...AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GRT LKS...PUSHING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE E COAST. INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WITH A CHC OF LATE DAY SHRA OVR THE W MTNS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIRLY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE...SIGNALING THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ENS MEAN QPF RANGES FROM NR 0.5 INCHES OVR THE NW MTNS...TO LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SE ZONES. THE DYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL STRETCH OUT SW/NE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION TUE AFTN. ALL MDL DATA INDICATING A DEEP TROUGH WILL FORM OVR THE GRT LKS/MIDWEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SW FLOW AND MILDER...MORE HUMID AIR TO CENTRAL PA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF ASSOC COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST THURSDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOC WITH FROPA. GEFS...AS WELL AS OPER EC AND CMC...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK. EVEN AFTER SFC FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA...UNSETTLED...SHOWERY WX IS LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS BULK OF MDL GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER TROF REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. A WARMER PATTERN OVERALL FOR PA NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE WARMER NIGHTS DUE TO MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COMBINATION OF LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CAUSE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER PRIMARILY THE SC MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OUTLOOK... SUN-MON...SCT LIGHT AM VALLEY FOG POSS...LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR CIGS. MON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR POSS IN SCT SHOWERS. WED...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 190944 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 544 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TRACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. A DIGGING TROF AND ASSOCIATED...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCU BANKED AGAINST THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS...THE RESULT OF MOIST UPSLOPING SERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE...MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG...MAINLY IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS. AS OCCURRED SUN AM...EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY ARND 13Z. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE MDL DATA SUGGESTS STRATOCU ACROSS THE SC MTNS WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT...LIKELY NOT BREAKING UP BEFORE CLOUD SHIELD FROM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THIS AFTN. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS HAVE STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO SREF POPS...WHICH SUGGEST SHRA REACH THE NW MTNS DURING THE AFTN...BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. RETREATING SFC RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LGT ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY TDY. ACROSS THE NW MTNS...BUKKIT INDICATES GUSTS NR 20KTS LIKELY BY LATE IN THE DAY ASSOC WITH ARRIVAL OF LL JET. WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE BALANCED BY INCREASED CLOUD COVER TDY...RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE THOSE OF SUNDAY /MAINLY IN THE 60S/. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LL JET PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHRA. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF RANGES FROM BTWN 0.2 AND 0.4 INCHES. GEFS LL JET AND PWAT ANOMALIES SUGGESTS BULK OF THE RAIN WILL FALL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT OVR THE NW MTNS...AND EARLY TUE AM ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. CLOUD COVER AND SURGE OF HIGHER DWPTS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT THAN WE/VE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUES...LEAVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DIE OUT ACROSS SE PA ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL -SHRA TUE AFTN ACROSS THE SE. HOWEVER...WANING LG SCALE FORCING SUGGEST MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE OVER BY MIDDAY. MDL SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON TUES...SO DESPITE 850 TEMPS NR 12C...TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO RISE HIGHER THAN THE U60S/L70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST THRU SAT...AS MED RANGE GUIDANCE HANDLING EVOLUTION OF DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW IN A SIMILAR MANNER. BULK OF ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL RUNS TRACK UPPER LOW SLOWLY SEWRD TO ARND MICHIGAN BY FRI/SAT...AS ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS PA. LATEST GEFS PLUMES SUGGEST THURSDAY AS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN PA...AND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN PA. GEFS...AS WELL AS OPER EC AND CMC...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...ESP EASTERN PA. TEMPS WED-FRI ARE LIKELY TO AVERAGE ABV NORMAL...MAINLY DUE TO MILD NIGHTS ASSOC WITH CLOUD COVER AND HIGH DWPTS. MDL DIVERGENCE BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT BY SAT NITE/SUN. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL MDL DATA STILL SHOWING UPPER TROF LOCATED OVER OR JUST WEST OF PA. SO...ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE MAY HAVE SHIFTED EAST...STILL NEED TO MENTION CHC OF SHRA THRU NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COMBINATION OF LOW PRES OFF THE EAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND KEEP A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FLOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY BY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LESS UPSLOPE FLOW BUT A GREATER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH...EXPECT SOME MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ISOLD IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CIGS AT JST...UNV...AOO AND IPT. ANY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FORM AROUND 09Z...AND DISSIPATING OR LIFTING BY 15Z. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAER TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY...EARLY TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... MMON NIGHT-TUE...MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. WED...VFR. THU-FRI...MVFR POSS IN SCT SHOWERS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD AVIATION...CERU/RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 060946 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 546 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE CLIMATE NORMALS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... 09Z MESONET OBS SHOW TEMPS ACRS THE NRN TIER MCKEAN/POTTER/TIOGA CNTYS BTWN 32-36F...WITH COUDERSPORT THE LOW SPOT AT 30F. THE USUALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WILL LKLY TOUCH THE UPPER 20S. THE MESONET DATA IS ALSO SHOWING READINGS IN THE MID 30S ACRS THE RURAL VALLEYS OF THE CNTRL MTNS AND MID SUSQ VLY...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE OUTLYING AREAS SURROUNDING STATE COLLEGE. THE FROST ADVY FOR THE NRN MTNS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTL 9AM. LATEST HI RES MODIS IR SATL SHOWS FOG PATTERN IN THE N-CNTRL RVR/STREAM VLYS WITH 20+ DEGREE AIR-WATER SPREAD. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS TO REBOUND NICELY - INTO THE MID 60S TO 70F - BUT END UP A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FROPA. ANOTHER CLR/CALM NGT SHOULD SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH GUID FAVORING THE ERN VLYS WITH THE COLDEST OVRNGT READINGS. WILL MENTION FROST BUT LET THE DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF ANOTHER HEADLINE IS NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LGT WINDS AND WARM TEMPS BY DAY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS. DESPITE THE DRY AIR...AM PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP ANOMALOUS RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD AFFORD A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /ESP MAX TEMPS/ WITH NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TOUCH IN LOW 80S IN THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ALL INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CONNECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT MDL TIMING SUGGESTS OUR THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE WED-THU. A DEEPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN WITH ENERGY DIVING SOUTH EASTERLY FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ...09Z UPDATE... IR SATL SHOWS SHALLOW RVR VLY FOG OVR N-CNTRL PA. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT THIS WOULD IMPACT LCL TERMINALS OVR THE NEXT 3 HOURS. THEREFORE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS 06Z SCHEDULED TAFS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING IN CNTRL PA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF/PATCHY A.M. VALLEY FOG WITH LCL RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE...BUT VFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... FRI-MON...VFR NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-011- 012-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...STEINBUGL  FXUS61 KCTP 061122 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 722 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER IN PENNSYLVANIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/... DAYBREAK READINGS ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW 30S IN THE NRN TIER...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER RURAL VALLEYS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. THE MESONET DATA IS ALSO SHOWING READINGS IN THE MID 30S ACRS PTNS OF THE CNTRL MTNS AND MID SUSQ VLY...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST LKLY IN THE OUTLYING AREAS SURROUNDING STATE COLLEGE. THE FROST ADVY FOR THE NRN MTNS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTL 9AM. THE LATEST HI RES MODIS IR SATL SHOWS FOG PATTERN IN THE N-CNTRL RVR/STREAM VLYS WITH 20+ DEGREE AIR-WATER SPREAD. EXPECT ANY FOG OR LOW CEILINGS TO BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY CLR SKIES AND LGT/VRB WNDS. AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN HIGHS TO REBOUND NICELY - INTO THE MID 60S TO 70F - BUT END UP A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FROPA. ANOTHER CLR/CALM NGT SHOULD SUPPORT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH GUID FAVORING THE ERN VLYS WITH THE COLDEST OVRNGT READINGS. WILL MENTION FROST BUT LET THE DAYSHIFT DECIDE IF ANOTHER HEADLINE IS NEEDED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY AIR MASS ACCOMPANYING THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL RESULT IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...LGT WINDS AND WARM TEMPS BY DAY...BUT SEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS. DESPITE THE DRY AIR...AM PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP ANOMALOUS RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD AFFORD A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES /ESP MAX TEMPS/ WITH NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TOUCH IN LOW 80S IN THE SE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ALL INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CONNECTION MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT MDL TIMING SUGGESTS OUR THREAT OF RAIN WOULD BE WED-THU. A DEEPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN WITH ENERGY DIVING SOUTH EASTERLY FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVR THE E-CNTRL CONUS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IR SATL SHOWS SHALLOW RVR VLY FOG OVR N-CNTRL PA...NOW IMPACTING IPT WITH 500' CIGS. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE BRIEF WITH CONDS RETURNING TO VFR BY 13-14Z. WILL ADD A 500' CLOUD GROUP AT IPT FOR THE 12Z ISSUANCE /10-12 FRI/ WITH A VERY SIMILAR RADIATIONAL FOG SET-UP EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR FLYING IN CNTRL PA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME BRIEF/PATCHY A.M. VALLEY FOG WITH LCL RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE...BUT VFR WILL BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTLOOK... FRI-MON...A.M. VLY FOG - OTHERWISE VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-011- 012-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...STEINBUGL  FXUS61 KCTP 080935 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 535 AM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODIS 11-3.7 IR SATL IMAGERY CONFIRMS DENDRITIC FOG IN THE RIVER AND STREAM VALLEYS. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IN PA THROUGH TONIGHT. +14-15C 850MB TEMPS WILL SUPPORT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S OR 10-15F ABOVE EARLY OCTOBER CLIMO. CLR/CALM CONDS EXPECTED AGAIN OVRNGT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND PATCHY RIVER/STREAM VLY FOG DEVELOPING TWD DAWN SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND SRN PENN...AND IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MTNS /OR 13-18F ABOVE NORMAL/. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M40S OVER THE NORTH...TO LOWER 50S THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH. PATCHY FOG WILL BE COMMON IN THE RVR VLYS BOTH MORNINGS AND SOME OF IT WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE TUESDAY. MUCH THANKS TO THIS HIGH FOR PROVIDING US WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEARLY CLOUD-FREE CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS. AN INCREASING EAST TO SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN THIS RETREATING HIGH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NORTH FROM THE SE STATES WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY DAMP CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A BELT OF SERLY 850 MB WINDS WITH U-ANOMALIES BETWEEN -2 AND -3 ST DEVIATIONS WILL BE DIRECTED RIGHT INTO THE FCST AREA WED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY...925 MB U-ANOMALY IS EVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS SERN PENN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO THE HIGH CHC AND LOW LIKELY CATEGORY FOR ABOUT THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY...THEN RAISED BY A LITTLE MORE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE AREA OF BEST LLVL MOISTURE FLUX MIGRATES NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. EC...GFS AND GEFS CONTAIN STRONG DIFFS IN THE LOCATION OF THE 995-1000 MB SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GEFS IS THE WEAKEST AND TAKES TWO...APPROXIMATELY 1005 MB CENTERS NE OF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY AND ALLOWS A SLIGHTLY DRIER/ SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST. THE GFS IS THE QUICKEST AND IN THE MIDDLE WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 200 MI ESE OF NYC AT 12Z THURS. THE EC IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL MODELS AND DISPLAYS A DOUBLE-BARRELED SFC LOW JUST EAST OF KORF AND SE OF KILM WITH THE STRONGER EAST/NE FLOW ACROSS PENN BECOMING ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS NOTABLE TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CHC POPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS THE WRN MTNS. BY FRI...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A DEEPENING...500 MB TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GLAKES REGION. EC IS THE MOST OMINOUS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY STRONGER...FURTHER SOUTH...AND SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. THE EC'S MORE DEFINED RIDGING TO ITS NORTH HINTS AT SOMEWHAT OF A REX BLOCK FORMING. POPS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...CONSIDERING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHIC RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL DROP STEADILY BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ELSEWHERE...WITH THE GEFS INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS OF ONLY ABOUT PLUS 1-2C FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT FOR ALL OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 09Z UPDATE... IR SATL LOOP SHOWS FOG IN THE RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS ACRS CNTRL PA. VIS AT AOO HAS DETERIORATED TO IFR WITH 2SM BR REPORTED AT APPROX 0915Z. BASED ON VIS TRENDS FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...A 2-4HR PD OF LIFR/VLIFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BTWN 10-14Z. IPT SHOULD BE THE NEXT SITE TO GO DOWN...WITH SEG USUALLY A REASONABLY PROXY. UNV MAY ALSO SEE SOME LCL VIS RESTRICTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IN IFR IS LOWER HERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY VLY FOG DEVELOPMENT. PERSISTENCE FAVORS IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AT KIPT AND KAOO. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BETWEEN 12-14Z WITH CONDS RETURNING TO VFR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG/RESTRICTIONS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE VFR FLYING IN CNTRL PA THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTLOOK... TUE NGT-WED...BCMG MVFR/IFR WITH PDS OF RAIN DEVELOPING. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...LAMBERT LONG TERM...LAMBERT AVIATION...STEINBUGL  FXUS61 KCTP 230941 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 541 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. A FAST MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK NORTH OF PA ON MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP A MOISTURE LADEN EAST COAST STORM TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 08Z OBS SUGGEST MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST THIS AM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF URBAN LOCATIONS AND AREAS EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM...ESP OVR THE NW MTNS. HRRR SFC RH SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER THE CHILLY START...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND TO NR NORMAL READINGS BY THIS AFTN. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE M50S OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO L60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC CLIPPER LOW...ENTERING W ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS INTO PA TONIGHT WITH THE CHC OF A FEW -SHRA TOWARD DAWN. AS SFC LOW PASSES NORTH OF PA MONDAY...A ROUND OF SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IN MOST SPOTS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF RANGES FROM ARND 0.2 INCHES NORTH TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS SOUTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED BY MDL DATA SUGGESTS A TSRA IS EVEN POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS WITH FROPA MON AFTN. ALTHOUGH MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY...SURGE OF WAA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE M50S NW MTNS...TO M60S OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALL MDL DATA INDICATES RIDGING AT SFC AND ALOFT BUILDING INTO PA MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF FAIR AND MILD WX. BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE EASTERN CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK TOWARD A FLATTER...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE SCENARIO. DESPITE TIMING DIFFS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG MDL DATA THAT ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD THRU PA BY LATE WED. AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP JUST NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY. DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF WAVE...MDL THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR A BIT OF WET SNOW OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL PA THURS NIGHT. COLD/DRY NW FLOW PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY BY FRI/SAT...AS TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE E COAST. SOME INDICATION THAT A CLIPPER LOW COULD PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE HEADLINING A QUIET PERIOD FOR WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL PA. LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL BRING PATCHY MIST/FOG THAT WILL RESTRICT VSBYS MAINLY IN VALLEYS...BRINGING SCT IFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER SUSQ AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. AFTER 13Z ALL FOG/MIST SHOULD HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER ALL AREAS FOR THE REST OF SUNDAY. FOG COVERAGE MON MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK... MON...CHC -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE AFTN. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSS. TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED-THU...CHC -SHRA. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056- 058-063>065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 180940 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 540 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A CHILLY MORNING IN PROGRESS...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 30S AT 08Z WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF COOLING YET TO GO. THE LARGE TEMP DIFF BTWN WATER/AIR WILL LEAD TO FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...MUCH AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING PATCHY FOG FORMING AT 0730Z. AFTER THE CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL WARM THINGS UP QUICKLY. MDL 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S. SINKING AIR ASSOC WITH HIGH PRES AT SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD CAUSE APPROACHING CLOUDS OVR THE GRT LKS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL PA TDY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... ANOTHER CLEAR AND TRANQUIL NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES OVR THE STATE. MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD 40S STILL EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS WARM TO ARND 14C SATURDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF MAX TEMPS IN THE L80S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AGAIN SEEMS LIKELY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRES RIDGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MED RANGE MDL GUIDANCE NOW CONVERGING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTH UP THE EAST COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED MOIST...EASTERLY LL JET AND UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCT SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. GEFS DATA SHOWING HIGHEST PWATS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...WHERE THE BEST CHC OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SUN NITE/MONDAY. OPER AND ENSEMBLE MDL DATA ALL INDICATE THAT AS UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF OVR THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...ENOUGH SUPPORT IN THE MDL DATA TO MENTION THE CHC OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA TUES-THURS. SUNDAY LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST PA. CLOUDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPS...BUT WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A DRY AIR MASS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF VALLEY FOG WILL FORM ACROSS NRN PENN LATE TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE BY 13Z FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG/STRATUS AFTER 07Z AT KBFD. OUTLOOK... SAT-SUN...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. MON...SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...MORE WIDESPREAD REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND SCTD TSRA AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW PRESSURE CREEPING SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 230938 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 538 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK ERIE. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PA...HAS RESULTED IN A LONE SHOWER E OF IPT AT 09Z. A STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE EAST OF THE SUSQ RIVER BTWN 09Z- 11Z. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WILL END THE RISK OF SHOWERS BY ARND 12Z. MODIS 11-3.7UM PRODUCT SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. ANY VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING MSUNNY SKIES AND MUCH LESS HUMID WX FOR THE REST OF TODAY. MDL 800MB TEMPS APPROACHING 10C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U70S OVR THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO THE M80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... MCLEAR SKIES...A CALM WIND AND DRY AIR MASS UNDER SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SIG RAD COOLING TONIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE. THE COOL TEMPS...COMBINED WITH WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER AND A CALM WIND...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AM FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HIGH PRES WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY...ALLOWING OF RETURN SW FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SOME MID LVL CLOUDINESS APPEARS LIKELY...ESP LATE...THE RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FCST. ALL DATA INDICATING A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE OCCURS SUN NITE OR EARLY MON AM...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/TSRA. IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF WILL SET UP OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS...BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY...WX TO CENTRAL PA DURING THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LPS RTS DURING THE AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW PM SHOWERS OVR THE N MTNS THRU MID WEEK. ALL MDL DATA NOW POINTING TOWARD A QUICK WARM UP LATE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING BUILDING HEAT OVR THE MIDWEST TO PUSH TOWARD PA. ECMWF MEAN 850 TEMPS BY FRIDAY CLOSE TO 20C...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 90F. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE NOW SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SAT INTO SUN. IFR FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT LNS /WHERE SIG RAIN FELL FRI EVENING/ AND KBFD. ADDITIONAL PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL FORM ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL PA TOWARD SUNRISE...FALLING MAINLY INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NW. FOG DISSIPATES QUICKLY SAT MORNING...WITH A VFR DAY AND GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS IN STORE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW/W AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 14-18MPH. OUTLOOK... SUN...VFR. ISOLD LATE AFT TSTM W LOCAL RESTRICTION POSS NORTH. SUN NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. MON...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS MAINLY N AND E. TUE-WED...PRIMARILY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...ROSS/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 240943 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 543 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING A BIT OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS AM. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 12Z. AS SFC HIGH PRES PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...A RETURN SW FLOW OF SLIGHTLY WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. INCREASING MID LVL CLOUDINESS APPEARS LIKELY TODAY...ESP THIS AFTN...THE RESULT OF WAA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...COULD PRODUCE ISOLD LATE DAY TSRA ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND WARREN CO. SATL DERIVED PWATS SHOW A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...WHICH MDL DATA SUGGESTS WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL MTNS DRY TODAY. MDL 800MB TEMPS CLOSE TO 11C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE L/M80S OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SPC PLACING THE NW MTNS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WX THIS EVENING FROM STORMS PRECEDING ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF SHOULD SUSTAIN TSRA AFTER DARK AS THEY CROSS LK ERIE INTO NW PA. SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AS REMNANTS OF STORMS MOVE INTO LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS. LINGERING SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AM ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA WITH FROPA...THEN MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS THE STATE BY AFTN. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMT OF CU BY AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE N MTNS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE M60S OVR THE N MTNS...TO THE U70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. A GUSTY NW WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE FREQUENT GUSTS BTWN 20-25KTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL DATA INDICATING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...BRINGING A PERIOD OF COOL...BUT MAINLY DRY...WX TO CENTRAL PA THRU MIDWEEK. POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LPS RTS DURING TUE AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW PM SHOWERS OVR THE NE MTNS. MODEL DATA INDICATING A QUICK WARM UP LATE WEEK...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING BUILDING HEAT OVR THE MIDWEST TO PUSH TOWARD PA. ECMWF MEAN 850 TEMPS BY FRIDAY CLOSE TO 20C...INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 90F IN THE VALLEYS. WILL KEEP CHC OF PM TSRA IN THE FCST THU-SAT...AS PA WILL BE WITHIN RING OF FIRE ON PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE MISS VALLEY. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS - THOUGH PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL FORM SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE COAST LATER TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES - PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY...OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS IN VERY ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD...BRINGING SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO THE N AND W AFTER 04Z MON. BUT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. OUTLOOK... SUN NIGHT...VFR TO MVFR...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. MON...VFR...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA BRINGING LOCAL RESTRICTIONS MAINLY N AND E EARLY. TUE-THU...VFR. && .EQUIPMENT... OIL PUMP ON KCCX PEDESTAL HAS FAILED AND THE PART IS BEING RUSHED IN. AT THIS POINT...RETURN TO SERVICE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUN AFTN. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR EQUIPMENT...  FXUS61 KCTP 300943 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 543 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. A SLOW- MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE LATE THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE RESULT OF A CALM WIND AND TEMPS MUCH COOLER THAN THE RIVER/STREAM WATER. ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA...A MOIST SERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...IS CAUSING LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP. LATEST MESOSCALE MDL DATA INDICATES THE ALLEGHENY VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z. MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL LIFT INTO A SCT-BKN CU LYR BY LATE AM. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TODAY...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEWPTS BACK INTO THE REGION. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE H5 SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPING EWD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY...COMBINED WITH WEAK SSELY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS BY LATE AFTN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/S-CENTRAL MTNS. 00Z MDL QPFS ARE GENERALLY FAVORING THIS AREA INDICATING A RELATIVE MAXIMUM FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/WV-MD PNHDLS NWD INTO S-CENTRAL PA. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS TDY IN THE L/M80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT...AS REGION REMAINS UNDER AREA OF LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF UPPER TROF. ECMWF/GEFS/NAM ALL PLACE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWATS ALONG SPINE OF APPALACHIANS...SO WILL PLACE BEST CHC OF OVERNIGHT RAINFALL THERE. MOIST SSERLY FLOW...COMBINED WITH RAD COOLING...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE ALLEGHENIES. PERSISTENT SSERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN VERY SLOW CLEARING ON TUESDAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BECOMING PTSUNNY BY AFTN. INCREASING FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BY TUE AFTN...ESP ACROSS THE WEST. 03Z SREF AND 00Z GEFS BOTH SUPPORT LIKELY POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE EARLY CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON TUESDAY...WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE U70S AND L80S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ALL MED RANGE MDL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE PASSAGE OF SLOW- MOVING UPPER LVL TROF OCCURS TUES NIGHT AND WED. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROF WILL SUPPLY ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOR SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT A OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTION TUE NIGHT...THEN DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CAUSE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PA ON WED. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF BTWN TUE-WED RUNNING ARND ONE HALF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL PA. BEST CHANCE FOR A COMPLETELY DRY DAY NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS BUILDS OVR THE AREA. GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE A WARMING TREND THU-SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SYS PASSES OFF THE E COAST AND 8H TEMPS RISE A BIT ABV NORMAL. RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THRU CENTRAL PA ARND NEXT SUNDAY. DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY/DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN...CULMINATING IN THE BEST CHC OF RAINFALL WITH PASSAGE OF CDFRONT. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ONE WILL HIT A TAF SITE ARE VERY LOW SO DID NOT MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLIP TO MVFR AS FOG DEVELOPS TOWARD MORNING /IFR POSS IN A FEW DEEPER VALLEYS/. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z...WITH VFR DAY IN STORE. LOW AMPLITUDE H5 SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING FROM OHIO VALLEY... COMBINED WITH WEAK SSELY LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS/S-CENTRAL MTNS. OUTLOOK... TUE-WED...VFR-MVFR WITH OCNL SHRA AND SCTD TSRA. THU...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. FRI...VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 230840 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 440 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL WEAKEN AND A RIDGE WILL FORM TO OUR NORTHEAST. A GRADUAL WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND UNTIL A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES A FRONT INTO PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY OR TUESDAY...OUR BEST CHANCE AT RAIN...THE TROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TS ISAAC ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND LIKELY KEEP IT AND MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PA WHILE A PATCH OF CIRRUS STREAMS NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA IN ASSOC WITH SHORTWAVE LIFTING UP THE E COAST. VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z...LEAVING A MSUNNY SKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SFC HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION WILL RESULT IN VERY LGT WINDS. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 15C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS BTWN 80-85F. TRANQUIL...SEASONABLE WX WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD DAWN...MAINLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH NEWFOUNDLAND BRINGING A ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE AREA...PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WX. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AN H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FAVORING A GRADUAL WARM TREND. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WITH SIGNIFICANT HEATING AND POSSIBLE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FACTOR IS HOW EAST THE MOISTURE ADVECTS. THE MODELS ARE IN ALIGNMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE EC BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE GFS. THE EC MOVES IT'S UPPER LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH...WHERE THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. GEFS AND CMCEFS SUGGEST A WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY- TUESDAY WHICH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE SHOULD INTERACT WITH TC ISAAC IN THE TUES-WED TIME-FRAME. AT THIS TIME THE PW PLUME IS FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS WE ARE PROJECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PERHAPS WE WILL BE SAVED BY THE FRONT. THE TROUGHS MERGE AND WE ARE IN A MEAN TROUGH. IMPRESSIVE FEATURES AROUND MID-WEEK WILL INCLUDE THE PW PLUME AND CIRCULATION WITH ISAAC...LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...AND A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 5940M CLOSED 500 HPA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN USA. GOING TO BE VERY HOT UNDER THAT RIDGE AND WET IN THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC. ALAS WE WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING RELATIVELY DRY AND LOCALLY BORING. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING THRU THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA AT 08Z. CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM EXTENT OF THE FOG BTWN 10Z-11Z. THE RIDGETOP LOCATION AT JST SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOG ISSUES THERE AND PATCH OF HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS PASSING OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SIG VIS RESTRICTIONS AT MDT/LNS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CONDS REMAINS POSSIBLE AT THE REMAINING CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS BTWN 09Z-12Z. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-13Z. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVR THE REGION...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE ARND DAWN. OUTLOOK... FRI-SAT...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY EAST. MON...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...MAINLY EAST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM/CERU AVIATION...FITZGERALD  FXUS61 KCTP 241012 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 612 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. AN UPPER LOW OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVR THE WEEKEND. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY. A DEEP TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND RESULTING NW FLOW SHOULD KEEP ISAAC WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENTRITIC PATTERN OF VALLEY FOG ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA...WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z. IR SATL TRENDS AND MDL DATA SUGGEST CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD UP EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER TROF AXIS...AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF PA TODAY. VARYING OPACITY OF HIGH CLOUD SHIELD WILL CAUSE SKIES TO RANGE FROM MCLDY TO MSUNNY TODAY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE...WHILE THE NW HALF REMAINS MAINLY SUNNY. SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVR CENTRAL PA...ENSURING DRY WX OVR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY...CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS A BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP POPS BLW 10PCT. TODAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY FOR LATE AUGUST. MDL 8H TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MAXES IN THE L/M80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... LGT WIND AND A MCLEAR SKY ACROSS THE W MTNS WILL LIKELY YIELD MORE PATCHY VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BACKING UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW MAY CAUSE CIRRUS TO WORK WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...DAMPENING THE RAD COOLING AND POTENTIAL OF FOG. AS UPPER LOW CREEPS UP THE APPALACHIANS...EXPECT INCREASINGLY MOIST SERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH. THE FACE OF 1-2.5SIGMA 850 HPA WINDS IMPLIES INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCE SHOWERS IN SERN AREAS. TEMP FCST PROBLEMATIC...AS MDLS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO ARRIVAL OF CLOUD/SHRA. FOR NOW GONE WITH HIGHS BTWN THE M70S-L80S. HOWEVER...COULD EASILY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OR COOLER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE...ALL TRACKING UPPER LOW UP THE APPALACHIANS SAT NIGHT TO NR THE MASON DIXON LINE ON SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL PA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS ASSOCIATED MOIST...EASTERLY LL JET LIFTS THRU. LATEST GEFS DATA DRAWS BAND OF LL EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES AND ASSOC POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES INTO SOUTHERN PA SAT NIGHT...THEN THE REST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HAVE TRENDED POPS UPWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHER CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY DUE TO EXPECTED EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS AND SHRA. RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS BULK OF MDL DATA PUSH REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST MONDAY...THEN TRACK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY. SHRA/TSRA COULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA...THEN DRY WX APPEARS LIKELY FOR WED-THU WHEN ENSEMBLE AND OPER MDL DATA INDICATE STRONG RIDGE AND LOW PWATS OVERSPREADING THE STATE. MOST MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST...BRING ISAAC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. HOWEVER THE BULK OF SOLUTIONS SLOW REMNANTS DOWN AND TRACK THEM INTO THE MISS VALLEY. WHICHEVER TRACK IT EVENTUALLY TAKES...WE/LL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON WHERE THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM FINALLY ENDS UP. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VALLEY FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS AT MOST AIRFIELDS TO MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SPOTTY IFR/LIFR AT KIPT AND KBFD. KLNS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DIP TO IFR CONTITIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH MORE MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS. EASTERLY FLOW MAY BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SOME LOWER STRATUS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... SAT...VFR EXCEPT AM VALLEY FOG. SAT NIGHT...SHRA/STRATUS POSS SE...LATE NIGHT FOG NRN VALLEYS. SUN...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST. MON...SHRA/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY...MAINLY EAST. MON NIGHT-TUE...CFRONT APPCHS FM NW. SHRA/TSRA POSS. MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD AVIATION...JUNG  FXUS61 KCTP 311026 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 626 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE SATURDAY. THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT AND PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING TYPICAL DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z. THE PEAK OF THIS BOUT OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH WILL OCCUR TODAY AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. TIGHTENING LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING /UP TO 5-6 KFT AGL/ TO CREATE A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND OF 10-20 KTS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH WE/LL SEE AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F FRIDAY...THEY SHOULD DECREASE A FEW DEG F DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS AS THE VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PWAT AIR OF LESS THAN ONE INCH PERSISTS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...COMBINED WITH GEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPS NR 20C /OR PLUS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS/ WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE M80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENIES...TO ARND 90F ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY. THESE READINGS ARE A SOLID +10-15F ABV LATE AUG NORMALS BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGS SHY OF HISTORICAL RECORDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PA/NY BORDER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...TIME OF ARRIVAL AFTER SUNSET...COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH BASED...SCT- BKN STRATO CU ACROSS THE NRN TIER THIS EVENING WITH A LONE SPRINKLE POSSIBLE. AS FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT A LATE NIGHT SHRA ACROSS EXTREME SW PA...WHERE PWATS PROGGED TO BE MUCH HIGHER. INCREASING DWPTS...A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND A BREEZE WILL RESULT IN A MILDER NIGHT THAN THOSE RECENTLY WITH LOWS FROM THE M50S N MTNS...TO U60S S TIER. COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WORKING IN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPLY MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH MSUNNY AND STILL WARM WX. HOWEVER...THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF FRONT ALONG WITH THE CHC OF A SHRA OR TSRA. GEFS MEAN 850MB TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM NEAR 80F OVR THE N MTNS...TO NR 90F IN THE VALLEYS NR THE MASON DIXON LINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE DRAW REMNANTS OF ISSAC EASTWARD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND...THEN THRU PA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH FROM THE GRT LKS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY OF FROPA. ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS A LOW PROBABILITY. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES CROSSING S-CENTRAL CANADA IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NCEP GFS/GEFS DATA REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF HGT FALLS/PCPN THRU THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON A NEAR EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GMOS/HPC GRIDS WHICH FOCUSES THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL/HIGHEST POPS ON TUE. BY NEXT WED-THUR...THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GRT LKS/MISS VALLEY. MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO CENTRAL PA INTO SAT NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT /YET MOIST/ SOUTHERLY WIND. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG - MAINLY IN THE SUSQ VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MTNS - TOWARD MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSS IN THE LOWER SUSQ JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ANY FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...LEAVING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS DO PICK UP FROM THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI/FRI NIGHT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT...AM FOG POSS W MTNS. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTHWESTERN PENN...NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF KAOO AND KJST. SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS SOUTH. MON AND TUE...SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA. PERIODS OF LOW CIGS POSS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 200958 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 558 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA LATE SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF FOG IN THE VALLEYS...THE RESULT OF A COOL...CALM MORNING AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE MOST PERSISTENT FOG WILL BE UNDER SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE PATCHES COULD LINGER UNTIL 14Z-15Z. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LATER TODAY. GEFS 8H TEMPS SHOW MODERATION OF THIS ONCE CHILLY AIR MASS WITH MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 9C BY AFTN...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE U60S AND L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... DYING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVR MICHIGAN...WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO ARND 15 PCT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE W MTNS WITH ARRIVAL OF THIS WEAK FRONT. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL THE LG SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEST OF PA ASSOC WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...SO THE CHANCE OF ANY -SHRA WILL BE MINIMAL. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRAW HIGHER HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A MUCH MILDER NIGHT...WITH MINS MOSTLY ARND 50F. DYING COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVR CENTRAL PA ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCT AFTN -SHRA. WILL PLACE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS /ARND 30 PCT/ ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...WHERE MDL DATA SHOWS TONGUE OF HIGHER SFC-8H THTE. DESPITE A PT-MOCLDY SKY...TEMPS SHOULD REACH NR SEASONAL NORMS FRI AFTN DUE TO WARMER RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AS SFC RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE LG SCALE PATTERN OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS THIS WEEKEND. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER LOW OVR ONTARIO GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATER SAT OR SAT NIGHT. AS MDL DATA HAS COME INTO LINE W/REGARDS TO TIMING OF FRONT...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR SAT PM. MDL DATA HINTING THAT ENOUGH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF FROPA FOR MENTION OF THUNDER IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY W/REGARDS TO AMT OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING CAPES. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LYR SHEAR...COMBINED WITH EVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COULD POSE THE THREAT OF SVR WX OVR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SAT AFTN. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS. A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY W WIND ACROSS THE REGION...ACCENTUATING THE POST-FRONT CHILL. GEFS MEAN 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M50S NW MTNS TO THE U60S SE. FAIR BUT STILL COOL WEATHER APPEAR LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT AND SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GEFS AND ECMWF MEAN 8H TEMPS REMAIN BLW SEASONAL NORMS BOTH MON AND TUE. SFC HIGH PRES SYS WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MID WEEK...ALLOWING A MILDER SW FLOW TO DEVELOP. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS... WITH SOME VALLEY FOG IMPACTING KIPT-KSEG WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. DID NOT MENTION FOR KBFD AS WIND GRADIENT PICKS UP A LITTLE HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE. DURING THE DAY THU...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS DO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH...INCREASING TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 MPH. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIKELY SHOWERS. SUN...MAINLY VFR BUT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER MTNS. MON...VFR...AS HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-006-010- 011. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 010359 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1159 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION ON MONDAY. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE KEYSTONE STATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND SKIES CLEARED LATE THIS EVENING...AS BLYR COOLS AND SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST. 11-3.9U SATL IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE S TIER...WHERE GROUND IS WET FROM TODAY/S RAINFALL. BASED ON 02Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND LATEST MDL RH FCST...WILL EXPAND THE PATCHY FOG TO THE REST OF CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SC MTNS...WHERE 18Z GEFS INDICATES THE WEAKEST GRADIENT AND DRIEST AIR /PWATS 1SD BLW NORMAL/. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE M30S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST BY DAWN...MAINLY ACROSS CAMBRIA/SOMERSET CO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL BISECT THE STATE...IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE OVR MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 00Z TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH TO SOUTH. MDLS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE SFC WAVE INTO TN/KY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT ROBUST NWD MSTR FLUX INTO THE AREA MON NGT...WITH PWATS SURGING TO +2-3SD BY 12Z TUE. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS PERHAPS A DUEL MSTR FEED FM THE GOMEX AND ATM RIVER EMANATING FM THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SOURCE OF HI PWATS INTO TUES. THE 12Z MODELS STILL DISPLAY SOME DETAIL DIFFS WITH THIS SYS AND THEREFORE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE DY2 FINALS. HOWEVER WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS/09Z SREF...STILL FEEL THAT HIGHER POPS ARE JUSTIFIED /ESPECIALLY FROM 06-12Z TUES/ GIVEN THE STG WAA/ISENT LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY TUES...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI. SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH PA LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERODING STABILITY AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TUES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. QPF ON TUE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25 ON AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSS. SOAKING RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RIDES OVER THE SFC LOW...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES AROUND BASE OF TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING INTO OHIO VALLEY WED. MODELS STILL HINTING AT WEAK SECONDARY SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SE...WHICH MAY PEEL POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH QPFS AWAY FROM PA RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND A MINIMAL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE SFC LOW/FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST - MAINLY IN THE WEST AS DRY SLOT APPEARS TO WORK IN WITH RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THU AND FRI WILL SEE SFC RIDGING AND W/SW UPPER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIVERGING FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS/GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING ALBEIT FADING FRONT LATER FRIDAY WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WANTING TO SHEAR OUT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF HERE. THE ECMWF /UNUSUALLY/ CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...HOLDING ITS UPPER ENERGY BACK RESULTING IN A BROAD WSW FLOW EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING OVER THE GR LAKES AND NERN US. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL DEVELOPING A SLOW MOVING WAVY ANA-FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TOUGH TO EVEN LEAN FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH SUCH DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE...SO HAD TO KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS SEVERAL PERIODS...THOUGH PAINTED HIGHEST POPS ON SAT. FOR TEMPS...GRADUALLY OOZED COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FROM SAT INTO MON. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LATE EVENING MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE MCLEAR SKY AND LGT WIND NECESSARY FOR CONTINUED COOLING AND EXPANSION OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT. IPT ALREADY HAS A 400FT CIG AT 0330Z AND SEE NO REASON FOR IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT DWPT DEPRESSIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY...IT APPEARS MOST AIRFIELDS WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN FOG BEFORE THE NIGHT IS THROUGH. UNFAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY AT MDT WOULD SUGGEST THAT AIRFIELD MAY ESCAPE SIG VIS RESTRICTIONS. ANY EARLY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BTWN 12Z-14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS OVR THE REGION. LOW PRES LIFTING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING LOWERING CLOUDS AND CHC OF RAIN MON NIGHT. OUTLOOK... TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. WED...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD  FXUS61 KCTP 010712 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 312 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE REGION TODAY. WET WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE KEYSTONE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... FOG PRODUCT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMING RAPIDLY IN THE REGIONAL VALLEYS WHILE THIN HIGH CLOUDS MAKE SLOW INROADS OVER SWRN PA. IF THE HIGH CLOUDS HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...THE FIRST VISUALS OF THE DAY SHOULD REVEAL A PRETTY MUCH CLASSIC DENDRITIC FOG PATTERN IN CENTRAL PA. EXPECTED LOWS IN THE M30S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS...SFC RIDGE WILL BISECT THE STATE...IN BETWEEN DEPARTING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW LIFTING NWD ACRS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING SRN STREAM WAVE OVR MS/AL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY...AS IT MOVES NWD INTO THE TN VLY BY 00Z TUE. HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH TO SOUTH. MDLS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE SFC WAVE INTO TN/KY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANOMALOUS SLY LLJ WILL SUPPORT ROBUST NWD MSTR FLUX INTO THE AREA MON NGT...WITH PWATS SURGING TO +2-3SD BY 12Z TUE. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE IS PERHAPS A DUEL MSTR FEED FM THE GOMEX AND ATM RIVER EMANATING FM THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN SOURCE OF HI PWATS INTO TUES. THE 12Z MODELS STILL DISPLAY SOME DETAIL DIFFS WITH THIS SYS AND THEREFORE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM FCST FOR THE DY2 FINALS. HOWEVER WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z GEFS/09Z SREF...STILL FEEL THAT HIGHER POPS ARE JUSTIFIED /ESPECIALLY FROM 06-12Z TUES/ GIVEN THE STG WAA/ISENT LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY TUES...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI. SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DRAGGING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH PA LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERODING STABILITY AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TUES...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. QPF ON TUE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 0.25 ON AVERAGE...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSS. SOAKING RAIN CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT RIDES OVER THE SFC LOW...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES AROUND BASE OF TROUGH BEFORE EJECTING INTO OHIO VALLEY WED. MODELS STILL HINTING AT WEAK SECONDARY SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SE...WHICH MAY PEEL POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH QPFS AWAY FROM PA RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...AND A MINIMAL FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME. AFTER THE SFC LOW/FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT...KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST - MAINLY IN THE WEST AS DRY SLOT APPEARS TO WORK IN WITH RIDGE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THU AND FRI WILL SEE SFC RIDGING AND W/SW UPPER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DIVERGING FORECASTS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GEFS/GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW AN APPROACHING ALBEIT FADING FRONT LATER FRIDAY WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE WANTING TO SHEAR OUT WELL NORTH AND WEST OF HERE. THE ECMWF /UNUSUALLY/ CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER...HOLDING ITS UPPER ENERGY BACK RESULTING IN A BROAD WSW FLOW EVENTUALLY ESTABLISHING OVER THE GR LAKES AND NERN US. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL DEVELOPING A SLOW MOVING WAVY ANA-FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. TOUGH TO EVEN LEAN FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WITH SUCH DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE...SO HAD TO KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS SEVERAL PERIODS...THOUGH PAINTED HIGHEST POPS ON SAT. FOR TEMPS...GRADUALLY OOZED COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION FROM SAT INTO MON. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG AND LOWER CLDS AT THE CURRENT TIME. SOME SPOTS WILL BE IFR OR LIFR...WHILE OTHERS WILL REMAIN MAINLY MVFR AND VFR. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...BUT HI CLDS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. CLDS AND SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WORK TO THE NE LATE TODAY... AS VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS UP. MUCH OF TUE INTO WED WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WEST OF THE MTS...STILL THINK A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY... GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR LATER WED INTO THU...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NE FROM WESTERN NC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT TIMING NOT CLEAR CUT...AS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...AND MODELS SHOW A LOT OF VARIATION. SUSPECT FRONT WILL COME IN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AS A RATHER STRONG RIDGE IS FCST TO BE JUST OFF THE SE COAST. OUTLOOK... TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS. WED...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS. THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/LA CORTE SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...MARTIN  FXUS61 KCTP 051026 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 626 AM EDT FRI OCT 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A DYING COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT AS IT ENTERS NORTHWEST PA TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THROUGH NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT...DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY SFC HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY MORNING MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING SOME VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM SFC RH FIELDS SUGGEST THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-15Z. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS LK SUPERIOR IS PUSHING A DYING COLD FRONT TOWARD PA EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST MDL DATA INDICATES THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST PA LATER TODAY...PERHAPS PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR A FEW AFTN SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE N MTNS. SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...WHILE MOST OF NORTHERN PA WILL SEE MORNING SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS ASSOC WITH APPROACH OF DYING FRONT. ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE M60S ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WHERE SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED...TO ARND 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASED OF UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG STALLED FRONT OVR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED BY ALL MDLS TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT...BRINGING OUR NW COUNTIES A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGEST FORCING AND RIBBON OF MDL 8-7H FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AM. DURING THIS TIME...BLEND OF OPER AND ENS MEAN QPF SUGGESTS UP TO 0.75 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS WARREN CO...WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AMTS FURTHER SE. MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL REMAIN IN THE RELATIVELY QUIET /DRY/ WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF LOW TRACK TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT AM...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA. THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS TONIGHT ON THE MILD SIDE...AND IN THE 50-55F RANGE FOR LOWS SE OF THE MTNS...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND LAURELS COOL OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S BEHIND FRONT. MDLS INDICATE AN ANAFRONT STRUCTURE WITH BULK OF CLOUDS/SHRA BEHIND COLD FRONT...ASSOC WITH THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION OF JET ENTRANCE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME SHOULD TEND TO DRY UP SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS. WILL PLACE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS THRU LATE MORNING...BUT ONLY ARND 25 PCT CHC ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. BY AFTN...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO BE PASSING EAST OF THE REGION AND SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR...AS LOW PWAT AIR FLOWS INTO THE STATE ON WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE L50S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO ARND 70F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... TIMING DIFFS HAVE BECOME MINIMAL WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF UPPER TROF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. UPPER LVL WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AS EARLY AS SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...BEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN CONJUNCTION WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING SUN AFTN. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...STRONG LG SCALE FORCING...AS IMPLIED BY MDL 500-300MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN IN MOST SPOTS ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ACTUALLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED WITH THE SHRA SUNDAY EVENING OVR THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ALLEGHENIES...AS UPPER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THRU. IN THE LONGER RANGE...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG OPER MDLS AND ENSEMBLES THRU NEXT WEEK...ALL OF WHICH PLACE MEAN UPPER TROF AXIS OVR THE GRT LKS. NOTABLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING ARND THIS FEATURE SHOULD AFFECT PA WED AND THU NITE/FRIDAY. SFC ANTICYCLONE/LOW PWAT AIR PASSING OVR THE STATE SHOULD ENSURE FAIR AND COOL WEATHER EARLY IN THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT ON WED...WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS. AFTER THAT...NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WITH ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THU NITE OR FRIDAY. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY...TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE BLW NORMAL THRU NEXT WEEK...AS WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF LARGE UPPER TROF AND BLW NORMAL 850 TEMPS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRIMARILY VFR. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE MAINLY AT THE EASTERN THREE TAF SITES /KIPT-KLNS-KMDT/. ALL HAVE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT 2 DEGREES OR LESS...SO EXPECT MVFR VSBY WITH IFR CIGS AT KIPT AFTER 06Z...AND MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING AT KLNS-KMDT WITH BRIEF IFR POSS TOWARD SUNRISE. SHORT-LIVED MVFR VSBY MAY DEVELOP AT KBFD AFTER 08Z AS WELL. FRI AFTERNOON...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NW PA...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEFORE 00Z SAT TO KBFD...THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TAP FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN PERIODS OF RAIN WILL COVER THE NW THIRD OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT /MAINLY IMPACTING KBFD/...WITH MAINLY VFR CONTINUING ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE CWA. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR ALONG THE KJST-KUNV-KIPT LINE DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING SAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. OUTLOOK... SAT...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT BFD AND JST. VFR TO PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE STATE. SUN AND SUN NIGHT...RAIN/LOW CIGS POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION MAY TURN TO A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND WET SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT INVOF OF KBFD. MON AND TUE...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN PENN. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 090620 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 220 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... EARLY AM RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW BAND OF -SHRA TRAINING OVR LANCASTER CO...COINCIDENT WITH AXIS OF MDL 8-7H FGEN FORCING...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE BY ARND 12Z. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SE ZONES BTWN 06Z-12Z. WAA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS MORNING...HOLDING TEMPS UP. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO ARND FREEZING ACROSS WARREN/MCKEAN COUNTIES AT 05Z. PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE ARND DAWN SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...IT/S A CLOSE CALL AS TO HOW COLD TEMPS GET. CURRENTLY BELIEVE PATCHY FROST WITH MINS IN THE M30S SHOULD DO IT ACROSS THE LAURELS. FURTHER EAST...LITTLE RISK OF FROST...AS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY. WHERE SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS VALLEY FOG HAS ALREADY FORMED ACROSS WARREN CO AT 04Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... ANY -SHRA ACROSS LANCASTER CO SHOULD BE ENDING BY ARND 12Z...AS SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF THE STATE. CLEARING SKIES WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN PA. DON/T EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPS...AS SUNSHINE HELPS WARM THE NORMALLY COOLER W MTNS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U50S TO L60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXCELLENT MDL AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF GRT LKS TROF ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM AND ASSOC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...PRIMARILY OVR THE N MTNS. WED NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AGAIN...MAY BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SUNNY/DRY WX THURSDAY...WHEN ALL MDL DATA TRACKS SFC RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA. THU NIGHT MAY FEATURE FROST...FREEZE ISSUES...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM NW PA...IF THE GRADIENT AND CLD COVER IS SLOW TO INCREASE. ANOTHER MOISTURE- STARVED COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY...WITH FAIRLY LOW POPS. FRI NITE COULD BE ANOTHER COLD ONE AS HIGH PRES WITH LOW PW AT AIR DRIFTS OVR THE STATE. MODELS HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WARMER WX APPEARS LIKELY BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FADE AND DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. A BRIEF LINE HAS FORMED ALONG A BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH WEST OVER RENOVO. THIS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION AND CONTINUATION OF LOW STRATOCU OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS LIKELY FROM SEG SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE BROUGHT ALL TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR BY LATE EVENING. BFD...WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. BFD SHOULD SEE REDUCING CIGS AND VSBYS BY 06Z THROUGH 15Z. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY AS THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... WED...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. THU...VFR. FRI...VFR...BUT MVFR POSS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. SAT...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...LA CORTE/CERU  FXUS61 KCTP 090937 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 537 AM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GRT LKS ARND NEXT THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES THIS AM...THE RESULT OF A CALM WIND AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC RH SUGGESTS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 12Z. WAA DEVELOPING ON WEST SIDE OF RETREATING RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OHIO AND SW PA AT 09Z. THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT...WHICH IS PICKING UP THE PLACEMENT OF THIS LYR OF MOISTURE NR 700MB...SUGGESTS THIS BAND OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO CENTRAL PA LATER THIS AM. HOWEVER...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS. 8H TEMPS SURGING TO NR 15C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO GO SLIGHTLY ABV SEASONAL NORMS UNDER PTSUNNY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVR THE MIDWEST. VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MDL GUIDANCE THRU LATE MONDAY...ALL OF WHICH TRACK UPPER LOW EASTWARD TOWARD PA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY LL JET/PWATS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PA MONDAY AM. HAVE RAMPED UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASED POPS TO NR 100 PCT BY LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON GEFS/SREF OUTPUT. HAVE PLAYED DOWN THE CHC OF THUNDER MONDAY...AS OVERCAST SKIES AND ONGOING RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. 00Z GEFS MEAN CAPES AOB 500 J/KG. A BLEND OF OPER AND ENSEMBLE QPF SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL MDL RUNS PRODUCE LOCAL AMTS ARND 2 INCHES...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN PWATS 2-3SD ABV NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LL JET AND PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS SHOULD BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA MON EVENING...CAUSING HEAVY SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...SCT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND POSS TSRA SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA ON TUESDAY...AS 5H TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU. MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ARND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH NORMAL TIMING ISSUES REMAIN...BULK OF MDLS TRACK SFC LOW SOUTH OF PA THURSDAY...SO HAVE RAMPED UP THE CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG MED RANGE MDL DATA TO SUPPORT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDS ARRIVING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS BUILDS SE INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LIGHT WIND AND MCLEAR SKIES UNDER SFC RIDGE IS RESULTING IN EARLY AM FOG IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES... MAINLY ACROSS NW PA WHERE PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS WILL BE POSS THROUGH 13Z. WAA ON WEST SIDE OF RIDGE IS PRODUCING BKN MID LVL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OHIO AND SW PA AT 06Z...AND SOME OF THIS CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN PA BEFORE DAWN. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO DRAW INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION... RESULTING IN SOME LATE DAY INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL OF SCT LATE DAY CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SC MTNS...BUT HELD MENTION TO VCSH IN TAFS FOR THAT AREA DUE TO LOW COVERAGE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS CENTRAL PA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS. OUTLOOK... SUN...VFR WITH SCATTERED PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS MAINLY IN THE SW. SUN NIGHT-TUES...SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS /ESP MON-MON NIGHT/. SCT PM TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS. WED-THU...SCT SHOWERS...BUT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 200939 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 539 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A CHILLY MORNING IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PA...THE RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOC COOL/DRY AIR MASS. 08Z SFC OBS SHOW SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS HAVE FALLEN TO THE L40S. AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY AM...EXPECT THE COOL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS TO RESULT IN PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. AS SFC HIGH SLIPS OFF THE NJ COAST...A RETURN SSE FLOW SHOULD DRAW LOW LVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMT OF CU BY AFTN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS. THE LATEST NAM/RUC AND HI-RES WRF DEPICT ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING INVOF THE LAUREL MTNS AND S-CNTRL RIDGES WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE PROBABLY DOESN/T WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE FCST...WILL INCREASE POPS TO ARND 10 PCT DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. UNDER PT-MOSUNNY SKIES...TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEG WARMER THAN WED BASED ON SREF 8H TEMPS WARMING ARND 2C. GIVEN LACK OF ANY LG SCALE FORCING...ANY ISOLD EVENING SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES SHOULD DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...ONLY CONCERN MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG. LIGHTEST WIND AND BEST POTENTIAL OF FOG APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE W MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AN ANOMALOUS 500MB RIDGE WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE REGION DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSED LOW ROTATING NEWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL MARK THE START OF A VERY WARM/HUMID STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA - WHICH IS ARRIVING ON SCHEDULE WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER ON FRIDAY /SEE CLIMATE SECTION/. APPRECIABLE RNFL WILL BE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS LATE-SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH MDL DATA SHOWING AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. CAPPING INVERSION/WARM 700MB TEMPS AND OVERALL LACK OF FORCING SHOULD KEEP AIRMASS CONVECTION TO MINIMAL CVRG. CONSENSUS OF MDL DATA FOCUSES PCPN TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL PA - ALONG WEST- EAST FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD THRU THE GRT LKS INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. OVERALL EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL MAX/MINS...LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND SOME FOG IN THE MORNINGS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDS WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH THE DAILY CHC FOR AFTN SHOWER OR TSTM. GLOBAL MDL AND ENSEMBLE DATA SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADING /MOVG WWD/ INTO THE FOUR CORNERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD ACRS THE REGION AROUND DAY 7-8. THE 20/00Z GEFS AND ECENS SHOW A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH 500MB CONFIGURATION HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE DEEP RIVER VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. HOWEVER...OTHER THAN 5SM VSBYS AT UNV AND LNS...ALL AIRFIELDS ARE VFR AT 09Z AND EXPECT IMPROVING CONDS AFTER 10Z WITH SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OFF THE NJ COAST SHOULD SUPPLY VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLD PM TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM JST AND AOO NORTH THRU UNV. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSSIBLE W MTNS. SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SUN-MON...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. && .CLIMATE... ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BEGINS AT 104 AM EDT ON FRIDAY JUNE 21ST. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD CLIMATE...  FXUS61 KCTP 250941 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 541 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LIKELY ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE AN INTERMISSION FROM THE TYPICAL LATE JULY SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRES AND ASSOC COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS IS SITTING OVR CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLEST TEMPS SINCE MID-JUNE. 09Z READINGS RANGE FROM THE L/M40S IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTH...TO THE M50S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING DENDRITIC PATTERN OF DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80...A RESULT OF THE COOL TEMPS AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATERS. BASED ON A MODIS CLOUD THICKNESS OF ARND 800FT...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 2HRS AFTER SUNRISE...OR 12Z. EARLY AM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DEVELOP SFC LOW OFF THE NC COAST...WHICH WILL PASS WELL EAST OF PA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...DRY AIR ASSOC WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OH VLY WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL PA WITH FAIR WX TODAY AND TONIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A LATE DAY SHRA ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHERE PWATS A BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER...ODDS OF ANY SPOT SEEING MEASURABLE RAIN IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FCST. IR LOOP SHOWS CIRRUS BEGINNING TO BE DRAWN NORTH TOWARD EASTERN PA AHEAD OF DEEPENING TROF. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES...WHILE AREAS TO THE NW ENJOY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. GEFS MEAN 850/925MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S THIS AFTN WITH THE COOLEST READINGS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE NERLY FLOW OFF ATLANTIC SHOULD HOLD READINGS IN THE M70S TODAY...A GOOD 10F BLW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. ANOTHER REFRESHINGLY COOL NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES TO NR 60F ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. THE COOL TEMPS...CALM WIND AND WARM RIVER/STREAM WATER SHOULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE ALLEGHENIES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SFC LOW LOCATED OFF THE NRN-MID ATLC COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GET PULLED NWWD ACROSS CAPE COD AND DOWNEAST MAINE BY EARLY SATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS/DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING FROM THE UPPER MS VLY INTO THE UPPER/WRN GREAT LAKES. ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES 500MB HEIGHT ANOMS WILL FALL -3SD BELOW THE MEAN FOR LATE JULY ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON DAY 3/SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE OH VLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST STATES. THE SFC LOW WILL BECOME OCCLUDED/VERTICALLY STACKED COINCIDENT WITH THE UPPER LOW...WITH A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SLOWING ITS FORWARD ADVANCE AS IT CROSSES THE OH VLY. THE COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE LEAD SHORTWAVES/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND NWD MSTR ADVECTION OF 1-1.5 INCH PWATS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THRU THE DAY. SPC OUTLOOKS SUGGESTS LIMITED SVR POTENTIAL GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND UNFAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER TROFFING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH WHAT IT OTHERWISE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES LOOK TO SUPPORT SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THIS POINT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND AND THE FROPAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITIES WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING...BRINGING INCREASING POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AS FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVES/FRONTS MEET THE HIER TEMPS AND MOISTURE. BEHIND THE FRONTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL AND POPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...POSSIBLY MORE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN THESE RECENT DAYS. A RETURN TO SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD COME AS QUICKLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AS ANOTHER FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SWRD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL PA WITH VFR CONDS AND LGT WINDS THIS MORNING. THE ONLY POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST PA. 11-3.9UM SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE VALLEYS SURROUNDING BFD SOCKED IN WITH FOG AT 09Z...WHILE BFD REMAIN VFR. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF VSBY DIP AT BFD BTWN 09Z-11Z. AFTER THAT...ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY. HIGH PRES RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDS AND A LIGHT NNE WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TODAY. OUTLOOK... FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. SAT-SUN...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...FITZGERALD  FXUS61 KCTP 201001 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 601 AM EDT TUE AUG 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS PA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG ACROSS CENTRAL PA EARLY THIS AM. MANY LOCATIONS AOB 1/4SM VSBY AT 09Z...SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 13Z. 3KM HRRR SFC RH SUGGESTS THE FOG WILL BURN OFF IN MANY LOCATIONS BY ARND 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS UNTIL 14Z. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ENSURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE LATER TODAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS. ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 16C SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND UNDER SFC HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RH/S WILL BE MUCH LOWER GOING INTO THE EVENING HRS...SO EXPECT THE DENSE FOG TO BE ISOLATED TO THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES. SFC HIGH WILL RETREAT OFF THE E COAST ON WED AND CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY OVR ILLINOIS...WILL BE LIFTING UP THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD PA. LG SCALE FORCING AND INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPS/HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP...WITH AFTN READINGS LIKELY RANGING FROM THE L80S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE U80S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... LITTLE SPREAD NOTED AMONG 00Z MED RANGE GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH SHOW UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT LIFTS INTO PA WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THEN MERGES WITH MAIN BRANCH OF JET AS IT AND ASSOC COLD FRONT DIVE SE INTO PA LATE THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...HAVE INTRODUCED A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WED NITE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY THU PM. WIDESPREAD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THAT CENTRAL PA WILL SEE A RETURN TO COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDS FRI-SUN...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES AND ASSOC NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES BUILD SE INTO PA. HAVE REDUCED MIN TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF RAD COOLING. HOWEVER...ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS NR 12C SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS NR LATE AUGUST NORMALS. BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY...SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF PA...BRINGING RETURN SW FLOW OF WARMER/MORE HUMID CONDS AND THE CHC OF CONVECTION ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER LVL RIDGE OVR THE MIDWEST. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS PA THIS MIDWEEK. DWPT DEPRESSIONS RUNNING BTWN 0-3F ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE DENSE...ESP IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND WHERE THERE WAS RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BURN-OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THOUGH MVFR MAY LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR. FOG RETURNS FOR LATE TUE NIGHT...THOUGH NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND THICK AS THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...VFR. FRI...MVFR WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA. SAT...MAINLY VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 191007 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 607 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF STRATOCU ACROSS WESTERN PA EARLY THIS AM...THE RESULT OF COOLING/MOISTENING BLYR BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SATL TRENDS SUGGEST ROUGHLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE COVERED BY THIS DECK OF LOW CLOUDS BY 12Z. WHERE SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR...MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA. THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BURN OFF BY ARND 13Z BASED ON LATEST 3KM HRRR SFC RH. FURTHER WEST...ARRIVAL OF MUCH HIGHER DWPTS WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLOW CLEARING FROM EARLY AM STRATOCU. EXPECT THE LOWS CLOUDS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP TO A BKN CU FIELD BY AFTN ACROSS THE W MTNS. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE L/M70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH MINS FROM THE U40S TO L50S MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH PWATS AND 8H TEMPS WELL ABV SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS WESTERN PA FRIDAY. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE W MTNS BY LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SKIES SHOULD RANGE FROM PTSUNNY ACROSS THE W MTNS...TO SUNNY E OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHERE LOWER PWAT AIR WILL LINGER. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS RISE ABOUT 2C FROM THOSE OF TDY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS BTWN 75-80F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY MINOR TIMING DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO FROPA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LATEST GEFS/SREF AND OPER RUNS SUPPORT RAINFALL BTWN 0.5 AND ONE INCH OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSS...AS PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WITH GULF OF MEX CONNECTION WORKS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF CDFRONT. ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER INDICATED BY MDL 850-500RH FIELDS AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY PRETTY MEAGER CAPES SAT AFTN...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOW INDICATED THAN A DAY AGO...WITH BULK OF MDL DATA PUSHING CDFRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHC IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS WHICH STILL DEVELOP WAVE ON FRONT AND KEEP SHRA GOING ACROSS EASTERN PA SUNDAY. A TRANQUIL WX PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA NEXT WEEK...AS NEARLY ALL MED RANGE MDL DATA KEEP CENTRAL PA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. 925-850MB TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME COOL NIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR AND PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS W PA. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL WORK INTO KJST-KAOO-KFIG-KBFD DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH CIGS DIPPING TO IFR AT KJST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN UPSLOPE FLOW. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG. LOWER CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS LAYER MIXES...LEAVING A VFR DAY AREAWIDE. CIG RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LIKELY EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OCNL MVFR CIGS ALSO POSS AT KJST-KBFD IN SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. FRI NIGHT...PATCHY FOG. LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE. SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP SE. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU  FXUS61 KCTP 191256 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 847 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND STRATO CU COVERING ABOUT THE WRN 40 PERCENT OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ONLY SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSOLVING FROM THE EDGES AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND EXCELLENT VSBY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN MTNS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LOWS CLOUDS TO LIFT AND BREAK UP TO A BKN CU FIELD DURING THE MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE W MTNS. CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME THIN... HIGH-BASED STRATO CU. WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKIES OCCURRED...MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY...AND THE FIRST FEW VSBL SHOTS SHOW FOG IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL PA AND THE MID SUSQ VALLEY. THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 13-14Z. GEFS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE L/M70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE ON A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH MINS FROM THE U40S TO L50S MOST LOCATIONS. AN INCREASING SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE GRT LKS WILL PUSH PWATS AND 8H TEMPS WELL ABV SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS WESTERN PA FRIDAY. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE W MTNS BY LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW PM TSRA ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU. SKIES SHOULD RANGE FROM PTSUNNY ACROSS THE W MTNS...TO SUNNY E OF THE SUSQ RIVER...WHERE LOWER PWAT AIR WILL LINGER. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS RISE ABOUT 2C FROM THOSE OF TDY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS BTWN 75-80F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIRLY MINOR TIMING DIFFS WITH RESPECT TO FROPA SAT/SAT NIGHT. LATEST GEFS/SREF AND OPER RUNS SUPPORT RAINFALL BTWN 0.5 AND ONE INCH OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSS...AS PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WITH GULF OF MEX CONNECTION WORKS ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF CDFRONT. ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER INDICATED BY MDL 850-500RH FIELDS AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY PRETTY MEAGER CAPES SAT AFTN...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FOR NOW. BY SUNDAY...A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS NOW INDICATED THAN A DAY AGO...WITH BULK OF MDL DATA PUSHING CDFRONT EAST OF THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHC IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR HANDFUL OF GEFS MEMBERS WHICH STILL DEVELOP WAVE ON FRONT AND KEEP SHRA GOING ACROSS EASTERN PA SUNDAY. A TRANQUIL WX PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR CENTRAL PA NEXT WEEK...AS NEARLY ALL MED RANGE MDL DATA KEEP CENTRAL PA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. 925-850MB TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SEPT...ALTHOUGH SOME COOL NIGHTS APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO DRY AIR AND PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING AN AREA OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS W PA. AN AREA OF IFR-MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BLANKET KJST-KAOO-KFIG-KBFD TAF SITES THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG TIL 14Z. LOWER CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 16-18Z. CIG RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LIKELY EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. OUTLOOK... FRI...PATCHY AM FOG POSS. OCNL MVFR CIGS ALSO POSS AT KJST-KBFD IN SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR. FRI NIGHT...PATCHY FOG. LOWERING CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE. SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP SE. MON...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/RXR AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 200940 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 540 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY. AN OMEGA BLOCK AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRES WILL LIKELY BE PARKED OVR THE AREA THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLEAR SKIES...A CALM WIND AND INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS AM. MODIS 11-3.7UM SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOST EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS/FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. LEANING TOWARD AN SPS RATHER THAN AN ADVISORY TO COVER LOCALLY DENSE FOG THIS AM. VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z-14Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BASED ON 3KM HRRR SFC RH AND WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...STRATUS DECK...WHICH HAS WORKED INTO SOMERSET AND WARREN COUNTIES...MAY TAKE UNTIL ALMOST NOON TO LIFT/BREAK UP INTO SCT-BKN CU FIELD. HIGHER PWAT AIR ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PA AND LEAD TO A MIX OF SUN AND CU THIS AFTN...WHILE DRIER AND MAINLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. CAN/T RULE OUT A VERY ISOLD LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA IN THE MORE HUMID AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE W MTNS. HOWEVER...UPPER LVL RIDGING AND ASSOC WARM MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY DAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. GEFS 925TEMPS BTWN 16C-21C FROM SE TO NW SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTN IN THE M/U70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO NORMAL ACROSS THE W MTNS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SHORT RANGE MDLS IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF COLD FRONT....WHICH SHOULD ENTER THE NW MTNS LATE SAT AM AND EXIT EASTERN PA DURING THE EVENING HRS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ASSOC ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF ANOMALOUS PWATS WILL PRECEDE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BRINGING A DECENT RAINFALL TO MOST OF CENTRAL PA. LATEST SREF AND GEFS OUTPUT INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TOTALS NR 1 INCH OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCAL TOTALS ARND 2 INCHES MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...DUE TO POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE AND SLOWING OF FRONT SAT EVENING. MDL CAPES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE...THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN SLGHT CHC OF EMBEDDED TSRA. GEFS AND SREF OUTPUT BOTH SUPPORT POPS NR 100 PCT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY. CURRENT MDL TIMING SUGGESTS THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE AFTN HRS...WHILE RAIN IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BEFORE DAWN ACROSS THE NW MTNS. BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE W MTNS ARND 21Z AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY ARND MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS IN THE M/U60S SAT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...WHILE THE SUSQ VALLEY IS LIKELY TO GET INTO THE L/70S BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS IN THE AFTN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOC COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL PASS THRU PA ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF DIURNAL CU. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE N MTNS. HOWEVER...LOW PWAT AIR MASS IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN IN MANY SPOTS. ENS MEAN 925TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS FROM JUST THE U50S ACROSS THE W MTNS...TO THE U60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. A RATHER TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN DEPARTING CDFRONT AND HIGH PRES OVR THE WESTERN LAKES SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE NW WIND ON SUNDAY...ADDING TO THE FALL-LIKE FEEL. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK...MOST OF WHICH INDICATE PA WILL BE UNDER RIDGE PORTION OF OMEGA BLOCK...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER. GEFS 925/850 TEMPS INDICATE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AND PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME COOL MORNINGS. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST HAS BROUGHT LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL PA...GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NOW MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR THESE DEWPOINTS...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED WITH SOME AREAS /ESP IN THE NORTHWEST MTNS/ DROPPING TO VLIFR WITH CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE. ALL TAF SITES...IF IT HASN/T BEGUN ALREADY...SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE RESTRICTIONS DEVELOP THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 14Z. RESTRICTIONS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE WEST WHERE A LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING OVER TOP OF THE FOG. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS RETURNING TO THE VFR RANGE FOR ALL BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN LOWER CIGS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH FREQUENT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST AFTER 09Z. OUTLOOK... SAT-SAT NIGHT...COLD FRONT CROSSES REGION. RAIN AND SCT TSTMS WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS AREA-WIDE. SUN...MVFR CONTINUES IN SCT SHRA/TSRA...ESP IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...AND SE PA AIRFIELDS. MON AND TUE...NO SIG WX. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 031118 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 718 AM EDT THU OCT 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPING THE REGION UNSEASONABLY WARM AND EVEN A BIT HUMID AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE IT'S ANOTHER FAIR EARLY AUTUMN NIGHT. A SLIGHT DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM NW PA SE INTO THE MID SUSQ VALLEY SUGGEST THE GHOST OF THE OLD FRONT THAT WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO PA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS STILL HANGING AROUND...AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FOCUS TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. SREF AND GFS WANT TO COOK UP SOME WEAK CAPE AS PWATS RISE TO 1-3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD BE OVER THE NW...CLOSEST TO THE BEST FRONTAL FORCING AND PW SURGE. IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NORTH...TO THE LOW AND MID 80S ALONG THE MD BORDER. THE FRONT IS MADE TO SNAKE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AN UP ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE SFC BASED LI'S SHOW THIS NICELY AND THIS SHOULD BE ONCE AGAIN THE AREA MOST FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER DURING THE SECOND PERIOD. WITH MORE CLOUDS...THE OVERNIGHT WILL STAY QUITE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF PA FRIDAY IMPLYING A WARM AND EVEN MUGGY DAY. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW A SMATTERING OF LIGHT QPF...AND MOS POPS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING REMOVED FROM THE FCST AREA...IT SEEMS SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE MAY BE LATCHING ONTO SOME SORT OF UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THE GEFS/SREF SHOW THIS POTENTIAL BY ALSO GENERATING SOME WEAK CAPE OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA. HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM VERY LOW CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH TO LOW LIKELY NUMBERS ALONG THE NY BORDER...BUT KEEPING ACTUAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE BARRING HINTS OF STRONGER AND WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE WEEKEND SHOULD FEATURE A COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR WEST...A WARM FRONT OVER NY AND A WARM FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA. MODELS ONCE AGAIN SPLASH AROUND SOME LIGHT QPF WHICH SEEMS MAINLY DIURNALLY FAVORED...BUT THINKING IS IT SHOULD BE A MAINLY NICE-DRY WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE TIME OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ARE CENTERED ON COLD FRONTAL TIMING AND HANDLING OF WHATEVER TROPICAL MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO THE GULF STATES. THE GEFS/GFS SUGGEST POTENTIAL STORM KAREN MAKES A LANDFALL OVER THE FL PANHANDLE BEFORE TRACKING UP ALONG OR EAST OF A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND THEN OFF THE MID ALTL COAST...NOT BEING A THREAT TO PA. THE ECMWF TAKES THE STORM TO LOUISIANA BEFORE ABSORBING IT INTO A SLOWER MOVING FRONT...BRINGING SIG RAINS UP INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL PA. AT THIS RANGE WITH SUCH GREAT UNCERTAINTY...I DIDN'T MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED...BASICALLY NOT DRYING THINGS OUT UNTIL TUESDAY...RATHER THAN LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FASTER GEFS/GFS WOULD HAVE. QUIET AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL ULTIMATELY RETURN FOR MIDWEEK AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT WITH THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ADVERTISING A RESURGENCE IN THE EASTERN RIDGE...WARMER AIR SHOULD MAKE A RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590DM BY FRIDAY! && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS DENSE VALLEY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA. BASED ON HRRR AND NAMPARA...FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY ARND 14Z...LEAVING WIDESPREAD VFR FLYING CONDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF A LATE DAY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE W MTNS IN ASSOCIATION WITH OLD BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. A MOIST SW FLOW ASCENDING THE NW MTNS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW CIGS/FOG AT BFD LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRI...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS BFD. ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS. SAT...AM FOG POSSIBLE. SUN...AM FOG POSSIBLE EAST. PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS. MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...LA CORTE SHORT TERM...LA CORTE LONG TERM...LA CORTE AVIATION...FITZGERALD  FXUS61 KCTP 081004 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 604 AM EDT TUE OCT 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...THEN PARK ITSELF OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CRAWL SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED EARLY THIS AM ACROSS WESTERN PA. HRRR AND LAMP GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BTWN 13Z-14Z. LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOC WITH SFC HIGH SHOULD ENSURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL PA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH CUTOFF LOW OVR THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS FROM THE L60S OVR THE ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U60S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA WILL ENSURE A DRY/TRANQUIL NIGHT. NORTHERN EDGE OF CIRRUS SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN PA. CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 30S WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG/FROST. UPPER LOW AND ASSOC SFC WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO CRAWL NORTH ALONG THE E COAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY SPREADING INCREASING CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL PA. HOWEVER...ALL MDL DATA INDICATE ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS REMAIN OVR THE AREA...ENSURING ANOTHER DRY DAY. BRIGHTEST SKIES SHOULD BE ACROSS THE N MTNS AND THE MOST CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN UNIFORM HIGH TEMPS IN THE M60S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... CUT OFF UPPER LOW AND ASSOC MOIST EASTERLY LL JET LIFTING NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY BRING A CLOUDY AND DAMP END TO THE WORK WEEK. GFS/GEFS MEAN BOTH INDICATING A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN OTHER MDL DATA...RESULTING IN LIGHTER QPF THAN ECMWF MEAN/CMC/NAM SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...HAVE RAMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY...BASED ON ALL MDL DATA INDICATING ARRIVAL OF ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW AND PWATS...FOCUSED ESP ACROSS SE PA. BLENDED MDL QPF YIELDS 2 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS THU-FRI RANGING FROM ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS WARREN CO...TO ARND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. HIGH FFG NUMBERS INDICATE THIS WOULD BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN...RATHER THAN A FLOOD THREAT. UPPER LOW INDICATED BY ALL MDL DATA TO SLOWLY PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRIER WX. LG SCALE RIDGE OVR THE E COAST SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND WITH THE BENEFIT OF A BIT OF SUNSHINE. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN MTNS /KBFD AND KJST/ OVERNIGHT IN THE CHILLY WNW FLOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE WET GROUND COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SLACKENING WINDS COULD SUPPORT FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN FALLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...JUST ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MAY PERSIST IN SOME LOCATIONS TO DISCOURAGE FOG FORMATION. FOR NOW...JUST HINTED AT THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE TAFS. CONDS WILL IMPROVE ON TUES...AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD. ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUES NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDS WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...FLYING CONDS MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. OUTLOOK... WED...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR. WED NIGHT-SATURDAY...EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...GARTNER/EVANEGO  FXUS61 KCTP 090956 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 556 AM EDT WED OCT 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLOW-MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL WORK UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...THEN STALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW OVR NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SE HALF OF PA EARLY THIS AM. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES AND A CALM WIND HAVE ALLOWED VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN PA...AS SEEN IN MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY. FROST ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THRU 8 AM FOR THE N TIER COUNTIES...WHERE GROWING SEASON STILL GOING. OBS SHOW SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS UP THERE HAVE DROPPED TO THE L/M30S AS OF 09Z. ALL NEAR TERM MDL DATA DRIFTING UPPER LOW AND ASSOC CIRRUS SHIELD NORTHWARD TODAY. ALTHOUGH SOME THIN SPOTS ARE LIKELY...SOUTHERN PA SHOULD AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WHILE THE NW COUNTIES SQUEAK OUT ONE MORE MSUNNY DAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY...AS SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. GEFS MEAN 925 TEMPS INDICATE MAX TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN THE M60S ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... AS LOW CRAWLS NORTHWARD...ANOMALOUS EASTERLY LL JET AND PWATS WORK INTO SOUTHEAST PA TONIGHT...LIKELY SPREADING RAIN INTO THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NR 40F NORTH TO NR 50F ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. POSITIVE PWAT ANOMALIES OF 1-2SD AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALIES OF 2-3SD BECOME FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST PA ON THURSDAY IN BOTH GEFS/SREF DATA...IMPLYING A VERY HIGH CHC OF RAIN ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON THURSDAY IN THIS AREA AND INTRODUCED THE CHC OF LIGHTER RAIN REACHING THE I-80 CORRIDOR. A STEADY RAIN OVR THE SE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING PAST ABOUT 60F...WHILE DRY WX AND FILTERED SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW READINGS TO APPROACH 70F ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MASS FIELDS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE STALLING UPPER LOW OVR VIRGINIA ON FRIDAY...THEN VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGES EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA...GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE DATA BOTH SUGGEST LINGERING EASTERLY LOW LVL JET AND ASSOC PLUME OF HIGHER PWATS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL PA THRU THE WEEKEND. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED THE CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS OR SPOTTY DZ THRU THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD RESULT IN MILD NIGHTS...AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A BLEND MDL QPF SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SE PA...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GIVEN OUR RECENT DRY SPELL AND THAT THE RAIN WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A FEW DAYS...DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. 00Z GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE DATA IMPLY BRIGHTER AND DRIER CONDS ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHEN WE FINALLY LOSE THE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT COULD THEN BRING THE NEXT CHC OF SHOWERS ARND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NEW ENGLAND TO GULF COAST STATES. DRY AIR AT THE SFC SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIG FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE STATE ON WED. THUS WINDS MAY PICK UP AT LNS LATE IN THE AFT. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THERE. GIVEN THE EASTERLY FLOW...FLYING CONDS MAY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE EASTERLY FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION... AND MOISTURE INCREASES. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT-SATURDAY...DEEP EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA...ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. SUN...PATCHY MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY...THEN VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-010-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD LONG TERM...FITZGERALD AVIATION...GARTNER  FXUS61 KCTP 200936 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 436 AM EST THU FEB 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT RACES EAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL INTO WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING COLDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY AM MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS NORTHWEST PA...THE RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER HIGH PRES SYSTEM. LAMP AND RAP DATA BOTH INDICATE AREAS OF FOG WILL LIFT BTWN 12Z-14Z. FOCUS WILL THEN BE ON BAND OF SHRA LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG APPROACHING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF RAIN ACROSS ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WHERE NOSE OF LL JET INTERSECTS RETREATING 8H BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL NEAR TERM MDL DATA TIMES THIS FEATURE THRU CENTRAL PA BTWN 17Z-23Z. ENSEMBLE MFLUX VALUES AND QPF PROBS SUPPORT NEAR 100 PCT CHC OF RAIN ACROSS THE NW MTNS...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER CHC OF SHOWERS FURTHER SE. EARLY SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER TODAY. HOWEVER...A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY...COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF RETREATING HIGH PRES SHOULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE 40S BY AFTN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... A STRONG MID-LVL TROUGH ENTERING THE PLAINS STATES THIS AM IS FCST TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES THE UPPER GRT LKS AND MS/OH VLYS TNGT. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE SHARP/TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE CROSSING THE APPLCHNS AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A FOCUS FOR A THIN LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WHICH COULD REACH THE WRN ALLEGHENIES EARLY FRI MORNING. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PLACE THE AREA IN GENERAL RISK...AND MENTIONED THIS POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SQUALL LINE WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN HWO ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS /AS VERY POTENT LLJET DEVELOPS/. THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT HVY RAIN POTNL/FLOOD THREAT...HOWEVER ICE JAM EFFECTS COULD BE A CONCERN. ATTM DO NOT ANTICIPATE RAPID SNOW-MELT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS ON FRI...PRECIP WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF NOW IN QUITE GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES...WITH PRECIP ENDING BY LUNCHTIME FRI. AFTER THAT...BROAD TROUGH BECOMES MORE AND MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF U.S. THROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK...GIVING US A SLOW AND STEADY RETURN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WEAK FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE...NO BIG SYSTEMS THROUGH TUE AS PERSISTENT NW FLOW CONTINUES WHILE HUDSON BAY LOW GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND PUSHES COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTHWARD. SNOWFLAKES WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTABLE WAVE PROGGED TO SWING AROUND THE TROUGH NEXT MIDWEEK...AND LONG RANGE MODELS /BOTH ECMWF AND GFS/ BEGINNING TO HINT AT POTENTIAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. BUT THAT REMAINS A LONG WAY OFF FOR NOW. AS FAR AS THE SNOW COVER AND RIVER ICE...WARMING TREND LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED...SO MELTING OF SNOW AND ICE WILL REMAIN GRADUAL...WHICH SHOULD KEEP POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS LOW. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MCLEAR SKIES AND LGT WIND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE CONDS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY RADIATION FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON 06Z DWPT DEPRESSIONS...KBFD APPEARS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO A PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AM. HOWEVER...THICKENING CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN OHIO COMPLICATES MATTERS AND COULD MITIGATE THE FOG THREAT. ELSEWHERE...SREF AND OPER MDL SFC RH FIELDS SUGGEST A DIMINISHING WIND COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG ARND KMDT/KLNS ARND 12Z. ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD LIFT BTWN 12Z-14Z...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. A BAND OF SHRA ASSOC WITH A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT THRU THE AREA DURING THE AFTN...AFFECTING MAINLY NW PA WHERE MVFR REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY AT KBFD. A STRONG CORE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS CRITERIA...ESP ACROSS THE W MTNS. MDL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD MVFR /POSS IFR/ CIGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A SURGE OF MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE STATE ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. OUTLOOK... FRI...WINDY. AM SHRA/LOW CIGS POSS. SAT-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...FITZGERALD  FXUS61 KCTP 220959 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 459 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE NEW WEEK. THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY COLDER NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... PATCH OF MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN WELL-CHANNELLED FLOW IS ADVANCING IN FROM NRN OH. HOWEVER...THE LIFT CAUSED BY THIS FEATURE IS EXTREMELY WEAK. THE MOISTURE IS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-FEB. THE LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE IS MOVING ALONG VERY QUICKLY AND THE SIGN OF ADVECTION SHOULD FLIP AROUND NOON AND THE THICKER/LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD SCOOT TO THE EAST. THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A 20-30 POP OF -SHSN THIS MORNING IN THE NW...AND JUST A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN IN THE NRN MTS. EVEN THAT MAY BE OVERDONE WITH THE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...AND TEMPS RISING RAPIDLY THRU THE DAY TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. BUT CONTINUITY AND NOD TO THE SREF POPS/QPF KEEP IT IN THE FCST. WINDS MAY STILL GUST INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NRN TIER AND WRN HIGHLANDS TODAY. BUT...THE WORRY FOR A WIND ADVY IS LOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... ANOTHER VERY FAST-MOVING WAVE MOVES IN EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE SAME PATH AS THE PREV STREAK. THIS ONE SEEMS MORE LIKE A REAL FRONT...BUT ALOFT. THERE IS A LOWERED PRESSURE/TROUGH AT THE SFC DOWN OVER THE OHIO RIVER. BUT THE LIGHT AND MOSTLY-FROZEN OVERNIGHT PRECIP REMAINS 100-200 SM TO THE NORTH. THE 8H TEMP ISOPLETHS DO BUCKLE NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS THE STREAK MOVES BY. PRECIP IS MORE-PRONOUNCED ON THE SREF AND GFS SOLNS THAN THE NAM. BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE VERY MINOR. THE TEMPS AT NIGHT AND THE ANTICIPATED FORCING IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR PROGS AND FCST. SO...WILL BUMP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATG FOR THE NW MTS FOR TONIGHT. BUT THE WAVE PASSES QUICKLY...AND SUPPORT OTHER THAN THE UPSLOPE OF THE MTS WANES QUICKLY. SUNDAY COULD HOLD LIGHT/MIXED PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN IN THE SRN TIER LATE...BUT MORE THAN 30 POPS NOT ADVISABLE IN SUCH A WEAKLY FORCED EVENT. ANY MEASURABLE ACCUMS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE WRN MTS. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE A DUSTING...BUT TEMPS ARE MARGINAL IN THE CENTRAL MTS/POCONOS AND MILD OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. TEMPS SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE U40S AND L50S IN THE S...BUT HOLD IN THE M30S N AFTER A SUB-FREEZING START TO THE DAY. THE PASSAGE OF THAT WAVE/TROUGH ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE FIRST ATTEMPT - OF MANY TO COME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS - BY THE ATMOSPHERE TO PULL THE COLDER AIR BACK IN. THE MILD TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MELT THE SNOW PACK AND KEEP THE WATERWAYS HIGH...BUT NOT NEAR FLOOD ANYWHERE. THE ICE ON THE WATERWAYS WILL ALSO BE MELTING SOME...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ICE JAMS DOES EXIST. BUT THE WATER LEVELS ARE LOW ENOUGH ON THE BIG RIVERS/CREEKS TO MAKE WORRY FOR FLOODING LOW ON THEM. IT WILL BE THE SMALL STREAMS WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER THREAT FOR ICE JAMS. THE THREAT IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH NOR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE LONG-TERM...AS A RIDGE RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FAR WESTERN UNITED STATES...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG-TERM...THE FIRST OF WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GEFS DROPS 850 TEMPS TO -1SD ON MONDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. A SECOND SYSTEM COULD SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM POSSIBLY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW TO THE REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...AS CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS OF THESE SYSTEMS IS LOW AT THIS RANGE. THE 12Z GEFS SHOWS 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2SD FOR THU AND FRI...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A COLD END TO NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS OF 09Z. EARLIER FOG CONCERNS AT KLNS HAVE DIMINISHED...AS DWPT DEPRESSION NOW AT 8F AND 08Z MODIS 11-3.7UM IMAGERY SHOWS NO FOG IN THE VICINITY. MAIN AVAITION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LLWS. A CORE OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LGT WINDS AT THE SFC...WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING...ESP THE W MTNS. MDL DATA SUPPORTS A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BREAK UP THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION BY LATE MORNING...ENDING THE THREAT OF LLWS BUT ALLOWING GUSTY WSW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC DURING THE AFTN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 25KTS ACROSS EASTERN PA AND 30-35KTS ACROSS THE W MTNS. OCNL LIGHT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW MTNS /KBFD/ TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONT STALLING OVER THE AIRSPACE. OUTLOOK... SUN...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS W MTNS. MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. WED...AM LGT SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS POSS...ESP SOUTH. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...EVANEGO AVIATION...FITZGERALD HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KCTP 311830 RRA AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED National Weather Service State College PA 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge south into the commonwealth tonight and Wednesday. Increasing moisture will flow northward into Pennsylvania for Thursday and Friday...bringing a better chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...ahead of another relatively weak cold front. Saturday is expected to be dry again...but wet weather may arrive for the second half of the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Tiny shallow cumulus clouds are scattered about all of central PA at this hour as per GOES East and MODIS imagery. Strong inversion at 675 Mb is squashing vertical development so no expecting any of these to produce anything of consequence. Aside from thin high clouds streaming NEWD from the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys...skies will clear this evening and it will be a comfortable night with a light NE breeze. Lows will vary from around 50F across the northern border...to near 60F in the valleys of Southern PA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... With sfc high pressure tracking north and northeast of region on Wednesday...another mostly sunny...warm and dry day is in store. Comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere...will combine with highs mostly in the lower to middle 80s to bring another stellar day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge of high pressure should bring a mostly sunny Wednesday with warm amd dry conditions aided by comfortable dewpoints in the low 50s up north...and the mid and upper 50s elsewhere. Latest 00-06Z Models and ensembles show cold front moving into the area late Thursday into Friday. 12Z NAM is showing large scale flow to be less amplified and more zonal in a sense...so front not likely to slow down quite as much for late Friday into Sat. For Sunday into Monday...another weak system swings across the area. Adjusted parameters to fit in with others. A slow cool down as one heads into next weekend. At this time range...too far out for not having some spread in model solutions from day to day. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conds will prevail through tonight. Some patchy late night and early morning fog is expected with mvfr restrictions. This will burn off by 14z with VFR expected again throughout central PA. OUTLOOK... Wed...No sig wx. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Thu...A.M. cig reductions poss west. Chance of showers/tstms west. Fri...Cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms with restrictions poss. Sat...Mainly fair/VFR. Local fog reductions poss around dawn. Sun...Reductions in widespread rain and low cigs. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir NEAR TERM...DeVoir SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Lambert/Martin AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR  FXUS61 KCTP 071019 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 619 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Great Lakes will build southeast across Pennsylvania early next week, then move off the east coast during the second half of next week. A slow-moving cold front will likely push into the state by next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early am MODIS imagery showing patchy in the valleys of western Pa, the result of cool temps/calm wind and much warmer river/stream water. Latest HRRR suggests any fog will burn off by 13Z. Sfc high and assoc dry air mass building into Pa will bring mostly sunny skies to the region today with blw avg humidity for August. A weak shortwave approaching the area has produced a few shra as it crossed the warm waters of Lk Erie early this morning, but air mass across Pa is likely too dry to support any showers. 8h temps nr 15C should translate to max temps from the u70s ovr the Alleghenies, to the m80s across the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Center of sfc high will drift across upstate NY tonight, resulting in another night of efficient radiational cooling, esp across the n mtns. SREF and downscaled NAM both indicate patchy fog will form in the deep river/stream valleys north of I-80 with lows in the m50s. Mins btwn 60-65F expected across the southern half of the state. All mdl data tracks a shortwave across Pa on Monday, but 0-3km lyr will remain quite dry, so nothing more than some passing cirrus expected. Ens mean 8h temps support seasonal high temps btwn 80-85F over most of Central Pa. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As sfc high drifts off the east coast on Tuesday, an increasingly humid SE flow will result in a fair amt of aftn cu and perhaps an isold pm tsra across the Allegheny Mtns. 00Z NAEFS/ECENS showing a building subtropical ridge over the eastern CONUS by the middle of next week with temps rising abv seasonal norms. 00Z GEFS shows Pa lying within ribbon of higher PWATs on northern periphery of upper ridge, likely supporting sct diurnally-driven pm convection Wed-Fri. All med range guidance indicating a slow-moving cold front will press se into the area by next weekend, so have gone with somewhat higher Pops next Saturday. ECENS/NAEFS mean 8h temps rebound to near 20C Wed-Sat, which should support max temps above 90 in the valley locations. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high building in has dropped dewpoints into the 50s areawide. So VFR conditions will continue overnight, though isolated reductions possible just before sunrise - mainly in locales that received rain over the past 24hrs. Winds will be light. The dry air should provide several days of excellent flying weather with VFR dominating through at least Tuesday. Outlook... Sun-Tue...No sig wx expected. Wed...Isold MVFR restrictions poss in afternoon shra/tsra. Thu...Sct MVFR restrictions poss in afternoon shra/tsra. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...RXR