FXUS64 KCRP 121018 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 418 AM CST SAT NOV 12 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CONDUSIVE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE...DURING THE PERIOD. FURTHER...THE GFS PROGS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY OWING TO COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS (IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST) AND INCEREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER (OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT.) GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 295/300K SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL COMMENCE OVER THE WATERS TNGT AND OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA BY SUNDAY AFTN. FCSTG AFTN TEMPS TODAY/SUNDAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS DETERMINISTIC. && .MARINE...NAM PROGS NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS TODAY WHICH COMBINED WITH 25KT 925MB WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST 15-20KT WIND OVER WATERS TODAY. NAM/GFS PROG 20KT SFC WIND OVER THE WATERS. YET WHEN CONSIDERING MODIS SST...ANTICIAPTE 15-20KT OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND AROUND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THUS ISSUED A SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR TODAY. WAVEWATCH OUTPUT INDICATES THAT SEA HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH 6-7 FT TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY. YET...WILL ONLY EXTEND THE SCA TO 00Z SUNDAY OWING IN PART TO SLIGHTLY WEAKER NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY BASED IN PART ON 8 SECOND PERIOD SWELL PROGD BY THE WAVEWATCH TO APPROACH THE COAST. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH TEXAS. BEFOREHAND...ONGOING SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGS GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING UP TO NEAR 800MB... WITH PWATS VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES. WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP A STRONG CAP IN PLACE...HOWEVER DECENT LAPSE RATES BELOW THE CAP WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING STREAMER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF EDGING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND COUNTIES. WEAKENING IN THE CAP BEGINS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EAST. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDER LATE IN THE MORNING. THE BEST DYNAMICS STILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER...MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-1700 J/KG WHILE CIN VALUES DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS. MODELS WANT TO PLACE THE CWA WITHIN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WOULD AIDE IN LIFT. HOWEVER... AREAS ACROSS THE WEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A DECENT CAP DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 85H FLOW. THEREFORE...KEPT BEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY AS DECREASING TEMPERATURES WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. EXPECTING TO REMAIN WITHIN THE 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME COOLER. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH IS STILL FAR OUT IN TIME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 78 67 78 69 84 / 10 10 20 10 20 VICTORIA 75 65 79 68 84 / 10 10 20 10 30 LAREDO 80 62 81 69 86 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 79 64 80 67 86 / 10 10 20 10 20 ROCKPORT 76 70 75 72 83 / 10 10 20 10 20 COTULLA 76 61 80 67 84 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 79 66 79 68 86 / 10 10 20 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 77 69 75 72 83 / 10 10 20 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 131048 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 448 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS PROGS A QUASI- ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACRS NRN MEXICO/SWRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL... ANTICIPATE ISOLD LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLN DEPICTS PCPN OVER MAINLY THE NRN CWA MONDAY. WL FCST PCPN AREAWIDE MONDAY YET WITH 20 POP OVER THE NRN CWA AND LESS THAN 20 POP OVER THE SRN SECTIONS (SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING DISTURBANCE NOT EXPECTED INFLUENCE THE CWA/MSA UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.) && .MARINE...BASED ON 25KT+ 925MB ONSHORE FLOW AND SST VALUES (MODIS SST) ASSESSMENT...ANTICIPATE 15-20KT WIND OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT 4-6FT SEAS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-8FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WITH SCEC ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED THE SCA TO 06Z MONDAY BASED ON CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST AT 7FT EVEN IF WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DROPS TO 15-20KT. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH PICK UP A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA...AND DRAG IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NOW APPEAR TO EXIST LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSITIVE VORTICITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO TRACKS EAST. IN ADDITION...THE AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN DECENT...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST (ESPECIALLY OUT WEST) IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. LI VALUES REACHING NEAR -5C. THIS IS BECOMING A GREAT SET UP FOR SOME STORMS TO POSSIBLY BECOME EVEN STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ALL OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOOKED AT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF WETTING RAINS IS INCREASING. THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER IN BY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 80S...WITH A SLIGHT DROP INTO THE MID 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S MIDWEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 81 68 82 70 85 / 20 20 10 40 30 VICTORIA 82 66 81 66 81 / 20 20 20 50 50 LAREDO 86 64 86 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 20 ALICE 83 65 84 69 85 / 10 10 10 40 30 ROCKPORT 78 70 78 72 84 / 20 20 20 40 40 COTULLA 83 63 82 65 85 / 10 10 20 40 30 KINGSVILLE 82 67 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 30 30 NAVY CORPUS 78 70 78 71 85 / 20 20 10 40 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 131155 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 555 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 .DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING (MVFR VISIBILITIES EXCEPT FOR IFR/LIFR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST)...ALONG WITH NON- CONVECTIVE LLWS EAST OF STATE ROAD 16...WILL TRANSITION TO VFR CEILINGS/NO LLWS BY MID MORNING/EARLY AFTN. ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST (GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF US 77) ANTICIPATED YET WITH MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. MODERATE/BREEZY WIND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS BY THIS AFTN...THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 00Z MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z MONDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS PROGS A QUASI- ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS DRG THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACRS NRN MEXICO/SWRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K ISENTROPIC LEVEL... ANTICIPATE ISOLD LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EXTREME ERN CWA/MSA TODAY/TONIGHT...AND AREAWIDE MONDAY. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLN DEPICTS PCPN OVER MAINLY THE NRN CWA MONDAY. WL FCST PCPN AREAWIDE MONDAY YET WITH 20 POP OVER THE NRN CWA AND LESS THAN 20 POP OVER THE SRN SECTIONS (SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FOREGOING DISTURBANCE NOT EXPECTED INFLUENCE THE CWA/MSA UNTIL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.) MARINE...BASED ON 25KT+ 925MB ONSHORE FLOW AND SST VALUES (MODIS SST) ASSESSMENT...ANTICIPATE 15-20KT WIND OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT 4-6FT SEAS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-8FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WITH SCEC ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED THE SCA TO 06Z MONDAY BASED ON CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST AT 7FT EVEN IF WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS DROPS TO 15-20KT. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH THE FORECAST MODELS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO HAVE A LONGWAVE TROUGH PICK UP A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA...AND DRAG IT SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION NOW APPEAR TO EXIST LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE LINING UP FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSITIVE VORTICITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS MEXICO TRACKS EAST. IN ADDITION...THE AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN WITHIN THE CONFINES OF THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN DECENT...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE STRONG CAP THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PAST (ESPECIALLY OUT WEST) IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. LI VALUES REACHING NEAR -5C. THIS IS BECOMING A GREAT SET UP FOR SOME STORMS TO POSSIBLY BECOME EVEN STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ALL OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOOKED AT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF WETTING RAINS IS INCREASING. THIS IS ALL EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXPECTED TO ENTER IN BY WEDNESDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 80S...WITH A SLIGHT DROP INTO THE MID 70S DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S MIDWEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 81 68 82 70 85 / 20 20 10 40 30 VICTORIA 82 66 81 66 81 / 20 20 20 50 50 LAREDO 86 64 86 69 87 / 10 10 10 30 20 ALICE 83 65 84 69 85 / 10 10 10 40 30 ROCKPORT 78 70 78 72 84 / 20 20 20 40 40 COTULLA 83 63 82 65 85 / 10 10 20 40 30 KINGSVILLE 82 67 84 71 86 / 10 10 10 30 30 NAVY CORPUS 78 70 78 71 85 / 20 20 10 40 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 161033 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 433 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY/TNGT FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS THURSDAY. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA/MSA TNGT. OWING TO LIMITED MSTR (LESS THAN 0.80 INCH PW VALUES PER THE GFS) DO NOT EXPECT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT. NAM CROSS-SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT A CLOUD DECK WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION AND WILL ADVECT OVER THE CWA/MSA. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WILL FCST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AFTER FROPA TNGT. UTILIZED THE NAM DETERMINISTIC...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS THU. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH (POLAR JET/VERY LOW 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES NORTH OF TEXAS)...WILL FCST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC NAM WHEN CONSIDERING TEMP READINGS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT NOW (MODIFICATIONS NOTWITHSTANDING)...AND WL FCST COOLER MAX TEMPS THURSDAY THAN NAM DETERMINISITIC AS CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS EVEN LOWER. && .MARINE...EXPECT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER FROPA TONIGHT/THURSDAY WHEN CONSIDERING WARM SST VALUES (NEAR 70F NEARSHORE/75-80F OFFSHORE BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE) AND DETERMINISTIC NAM OUTPUT. WILL DEFER TO SUBSEQUENT FCSTRS TO ISSUE SCA FOR THE SECOND PERIOD TO BETTER DETERMINE TIMING OF ONSET. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE NAM/LOCAL ARW SUGGESTS 15KT SFC WIND OVER THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE NERN SECTION...THIS AFTN...WHICH COMBINED WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION. WILL ISSUE AN RFD FOR ALL BUT THE NERN CWA FOR THIS AFTN. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESUME IN THE EXTENDED AS HIGHER PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AS PWATS WILL STILL AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH MORNING BEGINNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...AND EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND...DUE TO AN INCREASE IN PWATS AND CAPE VALUES AS WELL AS DECENT LAPSE RATES EXISTING OVER THESE AREAS. GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTING PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...DUE TO A FEW SHORTWAVES RIDING THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE H5 HIGH. AND WITH A STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST H85 FLOW CREATING A STRONG CAP ACROSS THE AREA...THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREAS MAY SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO OCCUR...HOWEVER AM THINKING THAT EVAPORATION WOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE WARM MIDLEVELS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA IS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL. IT SEEMS LIKE A SIMILAR SETUP FROM THIS PREVIOUS SYSTEM THAT PASSED THROUGH...WITH A TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES TRYING TO ABSORB A LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT IT IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SILENT POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MORNING SHOWERS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 88 55 67 58 79 / 0 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 85 52 68 50 76 / 0 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 91 51 71 59 81 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 90 54 68 55 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 81 57 67 60 76 / 0 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 88 50 67 53 76 / 0 10 0 10 10 KINGSVILLE 90 54 68 55 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 81 58 66 63 78 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 171048 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 448 AM CST THU NOV 17 2011 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE GFS/NAM PROG THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TO MOVE EAST FOLLOWED BY QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VEERING WIND DRG THE PERIOD. CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP TNGT/FRIDAY. THUS...BREEZY NORTH WIND EARLY TODAY OVER THE ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD COVER TRAPPED UNDER THE FRONTAL INVERSION APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY (NAM CROSS-SECTIONAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY OUTPUT.) WILL FCST MAX TEMPS TODAY SIMILAR TO NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT. ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HIGHER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K STILL TO HIGH FOR PCPN FRIDAY. && .MARINE...CAA AND WARM SST (ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE OUTPUT)...925MB WIND/0-1KM NAM LAPSE RATE OUTPUT...AND MSLP GRADIENT SUGGEST THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE AT LEAST THROUGH 18Z-20Z FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WIND FROM WEST TO EAST. WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (SUSTAINED WIND 25-30KT THUS NO GALE WARNING.) && .FIRE WEATHER...WIND EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW RED FLAG CRITERION BEFORE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS. YET... DRG THE 18-21Z PERIOD TODAY...THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD WARRANT AN RFD FOR THE NERN SECTIONS. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED DUE TO H5 HIGH SITUATED ACROSS THE GULF. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING THE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS AND EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MORNING STREAMER SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE ROCKIES. PAST MODEL RUNS KEPT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRUSHING THE CWA. HOWEVER... NEW RUNS ARE SLOWLY BRINGING A MORE AGGRESSIVE TROUGH THROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. TIMING OF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA RANGES BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TIMING COULD STILL CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS BETTER CONVERGENCE COMES IN. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH NEAR 90 TEMPS OUT WEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 54 75 67 83 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 66 45 74 62 82 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 69 53 79 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 68 51 76 65 86 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 67 55 71 68 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 65 49 76 63 85 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 68 54 76 66 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 68 57 72 70 81 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 012106 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 306 PM CST THU DEC 1 2011 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...AS EXPECTED THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 09Z AS THE RICHER MOISTURE ARRIVES ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL HOLD INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES. THE SHOULD LIMIT HEATING ON FRIDAY WITH READINGS STOPPING A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF WHAT WE SAW TODAY. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC APPEAR TO CONVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN. THE SOLNS PROG THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY SATURDAY-MONDAY...THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING NRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THE COMPOSITE THEN MOVES EAST...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER HOWEVER. THE FOREGOING NRN SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SWD MOVEMENT OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR ENTERING THE CWA/MSA MONDAY/TUESDAY (ALTHOUGH FROPA EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING) THUS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED SATURDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. FROM BOTH AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PERSPECTIVE AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS...AND INCREASING MOISTURE...AT LEAST ISOLD LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...EXPECT THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLD THUNDER ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WHILE COLDER AIR ENTERS THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES (THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AXIS STILL TO THE WEST) AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS LIKELY TO PERSIST BASED ON GFS ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K...YET GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. RECALL HWR THAT THE GFS IS FASTER. THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGEST PCPN THROUGH TUESDAY. HWR WILL FCST THE PCPN TO END OVER THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE GFS PROGS 06-12Z TUESDAY 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES CLOSE TO A FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA. WL FCST MIN TEMPS TUESDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S HWR WET BULB TEMPS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ICE PELLETS. THE CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME AND THUS WILL NOT FCST SUCH. IN RESPONSE TO ARCTIC AIR...AND CONSIDERING WARM SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS (SPORT MODIS ENHANCED COMPOSITE SST 1-KM)...GALE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY. HWR FOR NOW...WILL SIMPLY FCST GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. DRY AND FREEZING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING OWING TO STG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT TEMPS TO MODIFY SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY AFTN- THURSDAY. CONCUR WITH GFS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE WED/THURSDAY (BASED ON THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN AFTER THE FOREGOING UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES EAST.) WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN FOR THE ERN CWA/MSA THURSDAY BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 300K. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 62 78 68 82 63 / 20 20 10 20 30 VICTORIA 60 75 63 80 58 / 20 30 10 30 40 LAREDO 62 79 65 84 58 / 10 20 10 20 30 ALICE 60 79 65 82 60 / 20 20 10 20 30 ROCKPORT 64 74 67 79 64 / 20 20 10 20 40 COTULLA 59 77 63 82 55 / 10 30 20 20 40 KINGSVILLE 62 79 66 82 63 / 20 20 10 20 30 NAVY CORPUS 64 76 68 80 65 / 20 20 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ MLG/77...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 081012 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 412 AM CST THU DEC 8 2011 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGD (GFS/NAM) TO MOVE SEWD ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL CONUS DRG THE PERIOD. THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CWA BY FRIDAY. THE GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC PROG A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP DRG THE PERIOD ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED PCPN LATE TNGT/FRIDAY. THESE MODELS ALSO PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 295/300K OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER TODAY MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVEOPING COASTAL TROUGH. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL (GFS/NAM POSITIVE LI VALUES) NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE OWING TO THE COASTAL TROUGH. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT. (MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WL LIKELY DECREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RADIATIONAL FOG. FURTHER...BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE...SST VALUES ALONG/NEAR THE COAST ARE IN THE 60S AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN SFC DEW POINTS OVER THE SAME REGION. THUS ADVECTION FOG NOT ANTICIPATED.) FRIDAY AFTN...EXPECT LIGHT RAINFALL TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OWING TO BOTH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA...AND ALSO CONSIDERING FOREGOING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. FURTHER...AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER INLAND...INCREASING SFC WIND ANTICIPATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY APPROACH SCEC CRITERION. REGARDING TEMPS...WILL UTILIZE NAM MOS WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...WHILE ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE AND SOUTH TEXAS COAST...THEY DO DIFFER IN THE FINER DETAILS OF THIS TROUGH. MAINLY...DEPTH AND POSITION. HAVE NOTICED SOME WAVERING BACK AND FORTH RUN TO RUN ON HOUR STRONG THE TROUGH WILL BE. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP...BUT NOT REALLY SEEING THIS IN LATEST RUNS. INSTEAD...MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED THE TROUGH A BIT FARTHER WEST. HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO POPS AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT HARD TO REALLY PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. AN SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND REMAIN COOL...WITH SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 50S FOR SUNDAY. MAY SEE A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE EXITS. BY MID-WEEK THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS NO INDICATION OF THIS FRONT AT ALL. BECAUSE THE FEATURE IS JUST STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE GFS...WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO THAT KEEP THE FRONT BEFORE PUTTING IT INTO THE FORECAST. HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME...KEEPING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 70S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 64 50 66 48 57 / 10 20 30 40 40 VICTORIA 60 42 63 42 56 / 10 10 30 30 30 LAREDO 68 50 68 49 53 / 0 10 20 30 30 ALICE 67 48 67 47 55 / 0 10 20 40 40 ROCKPORT 60 51 66 48 57 / 10 20 30 40 50 COTULLA 67 43 62 45 54 / 0 10 20 30 30 KINGSVILLE 67 49 68 48 57 / 0 10 20 40 40 NAVY CORPUS 61 52 66 51 59 / 10 20 30 40 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM PZ/83...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 300958 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 358 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2011 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS VERY SHALLOW AND MAINLY GROUND FOG AND SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WITH THE SUNRISE. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS S TX THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK SFC HIGH AND A ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO S TX THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS PROG A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP AND THE FRONTAL BDRY TO STALL AND WASH OUT. GIVEN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE DIRECTION VARYING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAA WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS AND EXPECTED SUN...AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. DUE TO THE MORE SLY COMPONENT OVER THE WATERS...DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND PUSH INTO S TX. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4 OF A MILE AT TIMES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE MN TEMP FCST A BIT TRICKY. MN TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE FOG COULD PROVIDE EVAPORITIVE COOLING. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS. A MORE SELY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DVLP BY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DVLPS ACROSS N TX AHD OF A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT. MX TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO. && .MARINE... SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEA FOG AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A MOD SLY FLOW HAS DVLPD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK TO MOD BY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF/ CANADIAN CONTINUE TO PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP/MOVE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST/NERN CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...A COLDER AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE CWA/MSA. IN PARTICULAR...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE CWA/MSA SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NEAR SFC MSTR/LGT WIND WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. ANTICIPATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT (EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS RATHER THAN THUNDER OWING IN PART TO LIMITED CAPE.) STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW/SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER FROPA. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REACH GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING THE SST VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE OUTPUT (CAVEAT...10 DAY SST LATENCY). OFFSHORE WIND WILL THEN DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ENTERS SOUTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WIND WL LIKELY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION MONDAY AFTN. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIRMASS/PROXIMITY OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS/LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FREEZING CONDITIONS OF MANY LOCATIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA/MSA WED...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. YET...EXPECT MSTR TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR PCPN OVER THE CWA/MSA (RTN FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO COMMENCE UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN.) THUS...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY-THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 54 76 58 68 / 0 10 10 20 30 VICTORIA 73 49 73 54 66 / 0 10 10 20 20 LAREDO 77 51 79 54 67 / 0 0 10 10 20 ALICE 77 49 77 56 68 / 0 10 10 10 30 ROCKPORT 69 55 70 58 66 / 0 10 10 20 20 COTULLA 76 46 76 50 65 / 0 0 10 20 10 KINGSVILLE 78 52 79 57 69 / 0 10 10 10 30 NAVY CORPUS 72 56 72 60 66 / 0 10 10 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TE/81...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 010959 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 359 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH PROGS AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL CONUS BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA...TO MOVE EWD AND OVER THE ERN CONUS BY MONDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ENTERING THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE NORTH BASED ON MSAS DATA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA TODAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA ALONG THE FRONT (NAM/GFS QPF). THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONSIDERING THE NAM WIND/NAM MSLP FALLS/LOCAL WRF-ARW WIND OUTPUT/GFS WIND OUTPUT...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE YET BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THICKNESS VALUES REVEAL THAT THE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. NEVERTHELESS...COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TODAY TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. WL DEFER TO THE DETERMINISTIC NAM (WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS) WITH REGARD TO TEMPS TNGT/ MONDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TONIGHT...AND THE LOWER 60S MONDAY. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT/MONDAY. && .MARINE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE FOG TO DISSIPATE AND SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE (ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING WARM SST VALUES BASED ON SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ENTERS THE CWA FROM THE NW...WIND WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA OVER THE BAYS BY 00Z MONDAY...NEARSHORE BY 03Z MONDAY...YET CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 23Z MONDAY WHEN CONSIDERING SEA HEIGHTS FROM WAVEWATCH OUTPUT. && .FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY/WIND...WILL ISSUE AN RFD FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS DRG THE 18Z-00Z MONDAY PERIOD. NOT SUFFICIENTLY CONFIDENT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT/TUE MORNING WILL ALLOW MN TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. MID 30S ARE EXPECTED FARTHER S ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL BEND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND ALONG THE COAST. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SFC HIGH SHIFTING EAST THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE S. THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO S TX THROUGHOUT THE DAY LEADING TO GRADUAL WARMING INTO WED. ALSO WITH THE INCREASING DEWPOINTS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WED NITE/TUE MORN. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WED/WED NIGHT AHD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS TRICKY AS MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS...BUT THEY DO ALL SHOW A BAGGY TROUGH MOVG ACROSS S TX SOMETIME THU. MODELS ARE SHOWING NO TO VERY LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLNS...WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT 10 POPS BEGINNING ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EXTENDED DUE TO YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT. AS FOR TEMPS...DESPITE A COLD FRONT ON THU...MX TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE PROGD TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART WITH MN TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY ABOVE AS WELL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 41 62 35 67 / 30 0 0 0 10 VICTORIA 64 35 61 31 64 / 20 0 0 0 0 LAREDO 66 39 63 39 69 / 20 0 0 0 10 ALICE 66 39 63 35 66 / 30 0 0 0 10 ROCKPORT 65 43 60 38 63 / 20 0 0 0 0 COTULLA 64 34 62 31 66 / 10 0 0 0 10 KINGSVILLE 67 40 63 32 67 / 30 0 0 0 10 NAVY CORPUS 65 46 59 43 66 / 30 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS... BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR... COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM TE/81...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 211028 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 428 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SWING A H5 TROUGH THROUGH OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND WASHING OUT. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHICH HAVE PRETTY MUCH HINDERED MUCH OF DROP IN VISIBILITY. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VICTORIA AND CALHOUN. EXPECTING LAREDO TO BE LATE IN DEVELOPING FOG...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL DROPPING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER...SHOULD SEE FOG BECOMING DENSE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THE FOG MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS. TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE LOW CLOUD AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD HINDER MUCH HEATING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT. A BIT OF DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AFTER THE PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG WILL IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER NOT THINKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DENSE. A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT MORE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE LIFT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS EXIST. HOWEVER...DUE TO LACK OF HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL ONLY CARRY A LESS THAN 20 POPS. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN LIFT AN UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE MOVG THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE WEST COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGD BY ALL OF THE FOREGOING MODELS TO ENTER TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY. THUS...CONCUR WITH THE ECMWF/GFS GENERATING ONSHORE SFC WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS APPROACHING THE SCA WIND CRITERION OF 20KT (PROBABLY 15-20KT OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20-25KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING SST VALUES PER THE SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE PRODUCT. THE AFTER EARLY WEDNESDAY... MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING TIMING WITH THE SLOWER CANADIAN/GFS DEPICTING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS/LOW CENTER STILL WEST OF THE CWA THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THE AXIS EAST OF THE CWA/MSA (STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE THURSDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA THURSDAY.) NEVERTHELESS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGD BY THESE THREE MODELS TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA WEDNESDAY THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. THUS...THE COUPLING BETWEEN SURFACE AND UPPER FORCING EXPECTED TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. (GFS PROGS STRONGLY NEGATIVE LI VALUES/CAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG/LIMITED CIN.) THE GFS SOUNDINGS DEPICT BRN VALUES IN THE MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL RANGES. FOR THURSDAY...THE ISSUE IS WHETHER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA/MSA OR SHIFT EAST. CONFIDENCE IN ECMWF GREATER THAN THAT OF THE GFS. NEVERTHELESS... WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF UPPER FORCING. FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT. THE CANADIAN OUTPUT (ENDING AT 00Z FRIDAY) SUGGESTS A SLOWER SOLUTION. NEVERTHELESS...CONCUR WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DESCENT SCENARIO. THUS...DRY FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 58 79 55 71 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 70 53 76 50 71 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 79 61 83 54 77 / 0 0 10 10 10 ALICE 78 58 82 55 74 / 0 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 69 58 75 56 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 76 53 81 48 74 / 0 0 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 79 58 81 56 73 / 0 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 72 58 75 58 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...WEBB. GM...NONE. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 301551 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 951 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012 .DISCUSSION...CONSIDERING THE NAM AND GFS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT AND SST VALUES (SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE)...INCREASED OFFSHORE WIND TO THE SCEC CATEGORY. BASED ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. YET...WILL RETAIN ISOLD THUNDER FOR THIS AFTN OWING TO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER DISTURANCE. THE LOCAL ARW AND THE NAM PROG MAX TEMPS GREATER THAN CURRENT FCST FOR THE WEST... YET RAINFALL (LRD CURRENTLY REPORTING LIGHT RAIN)/CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP RISE. WL RETAIN CURRENT TEMPS FOR NOW. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012/ DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...CIGS WILL FALL TODAY AS RAIN WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HELP TO LOWER CIGS. EXPECTING CIGS TO FALL TO IFR AROUND 18Z AT KLRD...MVFR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT KCRP AND KALI...AND NOT TIL LATE AT KVCT. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT AFTER SUNSET JUST FOR A SHORT TIME (MAINLY TAFS EAST OF KLRD)...BUT CIGS WILL GO DOWN AGAIN IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KCRP AND KVCT AND LIFR AT KALI AND KLRD BEFORE THE FORECAST PERIOD ENDS. FOG WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...COULD BECOME DENSE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KALI AND KLRD BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH MVFR BR AT ALL BUT KALI WHERE WILL GO IFR. WINDS NOT TOO BAD TODAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY BUT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND NOT MUCH IN GUSTS DUE TO LIMITED MIXING. LITTLE THUNDER EXPECTED SO NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED RUMBLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST...WITH MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT/THICKEST MID HIGH CLOUDS MISSING AREA (MAINLY SOUTH AND NORTHWEST OF CWFA). NEVERTHELESS...ENERGY FROM SYSTEM (Q/G FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE) ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (MAINLY 300K-305K) WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN STABILITY THROUGH 850MB...THINK MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE STRATIFORM IN NATURE...AND SOME OF IT MAY BE VIRGA AT LEAST INITIALLY. HOWEVER...COULD GET SOME THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT. MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/SOUTHERN BRUSH COUNTY THEN SLIDE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY RETURNS AND MOISTURE REMAINS (CONVERGENCE SHOWERS). WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON TUESDAY NORTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ABSENT. RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT FOR NOW KEPT RAIN IN. CLOUDS/MOISTURE RAIN-COOLED AIR WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH TODAY WITH MANY AREAS NOT GETTING TO 70F. MILD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST LIKELY REMAINING STEADY IF NOT RISING OVERNIGHT. FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING (MAYBE SOME SEA FOG TOO BUT IT MAY BE A BIT EARLY FOR SEA FOG FORMATION). WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING OUT TO THE WEST...WITH SOME 80S EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. MARINE (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER LATE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ACTIVITY (IF ANY) BECOMES MORE CONVECTIVE TUESDAY. LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH EACH MODEL RUN AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WED SHOULD FEATURE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH WHICH SHOULD DRIFT INTO THE AREA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS ENE COUNTIES WHERE BEST MOISTURE DEPTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED. GFS WANTS TO STALL THE BOUNDARY ALONG CRP/BRO CWA LINE WED NIGHT BEFORE WORKING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURS WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH STALLING OF THE FRONT. THE LATTER MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE OF RAIN CHANCES FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS WITH A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE GFS IS LESS IMPRESSIVE AND MOVES THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH FASTER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS ON THURS WITH LOW END CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND PRECIP CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. GULF MOISTURE THEN POURS BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THURS/THURS NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WHICH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BRINGS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. FOR NOW WILL AGAIN BE CONSERVATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES GIVEN LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE. STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DRYING CONDITIONS. VORTICITY SWINGING AROUND MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEEKEND MAY TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE WEEKEND BUT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LACKING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP. TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR BOTH MAX AND MINS. A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES THEN EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES DURING MIDWEEK NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH PATCHY SEA FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 61 79 63 81 / 40 40 10 10 10 VICTORIA 69 57 76 62 79 / 20 40 20 10 20 LAREDO 67 61 81 62 82 / 50 20 10 10 10 ALICE 68 59 81 62 82 / 50 30 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 68 61 70 62 75 / 30 40 20 10 20 COTULLA 63 55 78 59 81 / 40 30 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 70 59 80 63 83 / 50 30 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 69 63 74 64 76 / 40 40 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 111039 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 439 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012 .SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...OWING TO UPPER CONVERGENCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/NRN TEXAS TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE CWA/MSA. CONCUR WITH THE NAM/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 60S SW. CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY APROACHING WEST CNTRL MEXICO...WILL ENTER THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS PROGS ISENTROPIC LIFT TO COMMENCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. BASED ON GFS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 295K AND 300K ISENTROPIC LEVELS... ANTICIPATE LIGHT RAIN TO COMMENCE OVER THE CWA AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. WITH REGARD TO TEMPS TONIGHT...SFC DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. YET...WEAK CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RESULT IN MIN TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECT LOWEST MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL/NE CWA. SUNDAY...COOL AND RAINY CONDITIONS AS EXPECT PCPN TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE MAX TEMPS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 NW TO MID/UPPER 50S SE...CLOSE TO THE NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT. GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRATIFORM RAIN. DESPITE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...NOT EVEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED WHEN CONSIDERING THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. && .MARINE...AS CAA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DETERMINISTIC NAM SUGGEST AT LEAST SCA WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS YET SCEC LIKELY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS. CONCUR WITH THIS SOLN ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING 50S/NEAR 60S SST VALUES NEAR THE COAST (BUOYS/SPORT ENHANCED MODIS SST COMPOSITE) TO THE MID/UPPER 60S SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (MODIS SST). RETAINED THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTENDED SUCH TO 00Z SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THINK RAIN IS STILL LIKELY...ALTHOUGH QPF HAS DECREASED A BIT FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. HAVE ALSO NOTICED THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA SEEMS A BIT WEAKER...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LIKELY A FACTOR IN THE LOWER PROGEGD QPF. HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...STILL GOING LIKELY POPS WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL JET POSITION STILL FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD QUICKLY END PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWER 70S BY MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST LOW EJECTS FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST. WITH CONTINUED CHANGES IN TIMING OF THE FRONT...CONTINUING TO GO CONSERVATIVE ON POPS WITH 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. A SECOND LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES BY THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 57 46 57 56 72 / 0 10 50 60 40 VICTORIA 53 37 51 48 68 / 0 10 40 60 50 LAREDO 62 43 53 48 70 / 0 20 60 60 20 ALICE 58 43 55 53 71 / 0 10 60 70 30 ROCKPORT 56 45 55 54 70 / 0 10 50 60 40 COTULLA 57 40 47 45 68 / 0 10 60 60 20 KINGSVILLE 58 46 57 56 72 / 0 10 50 60 30 NAVY CORPUS 57 49 58 58 72 / 0 10 50 60 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM PZ/83...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 241039 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 439 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVG ACRS THE PLAINS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ISOLD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. THE NAM PROGS AND MSAS ANALYSES REVEAL... STRONG PRESSURE RISES TO THE N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT SUSTAINED SFC WIND TO REACH AS HIGH AS DEPICTED BY THE DETERMINSITIC NAM AND LOCAL ARW. WL MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVSY AS SUSTAINED WIND OR FREQUENT GUSTS SHOULD REACH CRITERION. (CAVEAT... WIND MAY FALL BELOW ADSY CRITERION A FEW HOURS BEFORE EXPIRATION.) AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...NAM SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN MID/UPPER MOIST CONDITIONS. ANTICIPATE ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY AFTN MAINLY OVER THE SRN CWA. CONCUR WITH THE NAM WITH REGARD TO THE TEMP TREND AFTER FROPA TODAY WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 50S BY MID MORNING YET RISING TO THE LOWER 60S BY AFTN. CONCUR WITH THE NAM/GFS THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE (CURRENTLY SW OF TEXAS AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) WILL ENTER THE CWA/MSA AFTER 00Z SAT THEN EXIT BY 18Z SAT. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO GENERATE SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TNGT/SAT. ANTICIPATE LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NAM MOS OWING TO CLOUD COVER/DECREASING CCA. YET...COLDER WITH READINGS IN THE 40S. FCSTG HIGHS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NAM MOS YET COOL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S WHICH IS REASONABLE CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER/AIRMASS. && .MARINE...COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SEA FOG TO DISSIPATE AND WL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVSY TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. WILL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SCA OVER THE BAYS WHEN CONSIDERING STRONG MSLP RISES AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS OVER LAND (ALSO CONSIDERING THE SST VALUES BASED ON THE MODIS ENHANCED SST COMPOSITE PRODUCT.) SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT YET WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHFIT FOR TIMING. && .FIRE WEATHER...BASED ON EXPECTED RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND TRENDS TODAY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN ISSUES ARE HOW TO HANDLE POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLE FRONT WEDNESDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET BUT COOL...WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. WARM UP BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING UPPER TROUGH AND CONSEQUENTLY... HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES MONDAY MORNING...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE HIGH SO DO NOT THINK TOO MUCH OF RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME. NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TUESDAY. ECMWF...WHICH IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH...IS BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN...WHICH IS SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH WITH TROUGH...GENERALLY KEEPS FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF AREA FOR TUESDAY DUE TO MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSSIBLE LIFT FROM UPPER TROUGH...AND TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL ENTRANCE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF IS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY...GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FETCH...SO WILL MAINTAIN A WARM FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY (MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS) AND ALSO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN ON WEDNESDAY (PROBABLY TOO CAPPED FOR THUNDER). WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME STREAMER SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY OVER THE SAME AREAS...AND FOLLOW THE GFS MOS MORE FOR TEMPERATURES. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 62 45 55 44 68 / 20 30 50 10 10 VICTORIA 60 43 55 38 67 / 10 20 40 10 10 LAREDO 65 43 57 46 71 / 20 50 30 10 0 ALICE 62 44 54 41 70 / 20 40 50 10 10 ROCKPORT 61 48 55 43 66 / 20 20 50 10 10 COTULLA 66 43 56 40 68 / 10 30 30 10 0 KINGSVILLE 64 45 55 41 69 / 20 40 50 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 62 49 55 49 65 / 20 30 60 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN... DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO... VICTORIA...WEBB. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM GW/86...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 282146 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 346 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE (DEPICTED VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) WILL EXIT THE SWRN CONUS AND ENTER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER TEXAS. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD BY DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT TO ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE CWA WED. ISSUED LOW POPS FOR ISOLD SHOWERS FOR THE NERN CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NGT YET MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE NERN CWA. WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVER THE CNTRL/WRN SECTIONS WED AFTN OWING TO PERSISTENCE. OWING TO STRONG WIND EXPECTED ALOFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE DENSE FOG OVER LAND...DECOUPLING NOTHWITHSTANDING. && .MARINE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE... INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE THAT WARMER SSTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL COMBINE WITH MOMENTUM ALOFT TO GENERATE NEAR 20KT WIND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TNGT (VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WHICH EXPLAINS 20KT FCST RATHER THAN 25-30KT SINCE 925MB WIND EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35KT)...GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NAM/GFS (LOCAL WRF SFC WIND SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH.) WHEN CONSIDERING SST VALUES (SPORT MODIS SST COMPOSITE)... SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WIND DIRECTIONS...EXPECT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ANTICIPATE THAT DENSE SEA FOG WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS AS WIND MAY PARALLEL THE SRN COAST. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY WARM DUE TO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ONGOING SEA FOG FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EJECT EASTWARD...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTH TEXAS SOMETIME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS GENERALLY PLACE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 06-12Z SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER A CAP IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE PROFILE WILL LIMIT OUR CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 66 79 65 80 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 VICTORIA 65 76 64 77 65 / 20 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 68 84 65 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 66 83 65 83 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 66 72 65 73 64 / 10 20 20 20 10 COTULLA 64 81 62 85 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 67 83 66 83 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 66 73 65 76 67 / 10 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM. DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RG/82...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 192040 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 340 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA DEPICT THE UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TX/SRN PLAINS FROM THE WEST. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA/MSA FRIDAY THEN EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO ENTER THE CWA FRIDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PROG THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST AROUND 00Z SAT. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER/SFC FORCING APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...CIN APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR EXCEPT FOR THE NERN SECTIONS (NAM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THUS WILL ISSUE GREATEST POPS FOR THE NERN SECTIONS. THE NAM/GFS BRN IS PROGD TO DECREASE TOWARD THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE DRG THE 21Z FRI-00Z SAT PERIOD (ESPECIALLY FOR THE NERN CWA) CONCOMITANT WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER FORCING. CONCUR WITH SPC REGARDING THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE OVER THE NERN SECTIONS (DRG THE NARROW 21Z FRI-00Z SAT WINDOW.) WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN THE FCST FOR THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION FOR FRIDAY AFTN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 00Z SAT. THE NAM PROGS ONLY WEAK/MODERATE MSLP RISES AFTER FROPA. THUS DO NOT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER LAND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE...IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM/LOCAL ARW/GFS SUGGEST BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS DRG THE 06Z- 12Z FRIDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ONLY FOR SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TNGT. WIND WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY AFTN AS THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CWA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING... EXPECT STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS (MODIS ENHANCED SST COMPOSITE.) ANTICIPATE AT LEAST GUSTS TO GALE FORCE DRG THE 06-12Z SAT PERIOD. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE STRENGTH OF WINDS ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF FIRE DANGER THREAT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY. MODELS SHOW 925 MB WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT 35 KNOTS AT 12Z SATURDAY FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY SO ONLY EXPECT FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO BECOME ELEVATED WHILE PREVIOUS RAINS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING. FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE TUESDAY. VERY COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 81 58 78 53 / 10 40 40 0 0 VICTORIA 63 79 54 76 50 / 10 50 40 0 0 LAREDO 69 91 61 88 58 / 0 20 10 0 0 ALICE 65 84 58 82 52 / 10 30 30 0 0 ROCKPORT 69 78 60 76 57 / 10 40 40 0 0 COTULLA 64 86 56 84 50 / 0 20 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 66 83 58 80 52 / 10 30 30 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 70 78 62 76 61 / 10 40 40 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM TT/89...LONG TERM LK/84...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 082120 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 320 PM CST THU NOV 8 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WEST COAST (BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON NAM/GFS 500MB STREAMLINE OUTPUT/MODEL INITIALIZATIONS) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS DURING THE PERIOD (GFS DETERMINISTIC). A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. YET NO PCPN EXPECTED OVER THE CWA OWING TO THE SOMEWHAT DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN (MOST RECENT GOES SOUNDER PWAT OUTPUT AND PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS.) GREATER ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE. ANTICIPATE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA OWING IN PART TO VERTICAL MIXING OF GREATER MOMENTUM. WL USE PERSISTENCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD OWING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NEAR SFC MSTR DRG THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...THE DETERMINISTIC NAM/LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS/WAVEWATCH INDICATE THAT SFC WIND WILL APPROACH 20KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. NOT SURPRISING WHEN CONSIDERING THE NAM 0-1KM LAPSE NOT FAR FROM DRY ADIABATIC WITH 20-25KT 925MB ONSHORE WIND. YET...THE 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT WITH READINGS AROUND 75F OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AROUND 80F OFFSHORE. THUS WL FCST 15-20KT WIND OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 20KT OFFSHORE. THUS WL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF FCST WIND/MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES/FUEL DRYNESS MAP MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTN. YET WL DEFER TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT OWING TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY WARM AND WINDY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE NORTHWEST CONS AND THEN APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THUS...THE WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVERT INTO THE REGION AND COULD LEAD TO STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN INLAND AREAS ON SUNDAY...THEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE WILL POOL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO GIVEN THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AREAS OUT WEST COULD BECOME DRY SLOTTED ALOFT AND SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THIS...AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL WILD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK ONLY WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S TUESDAY MORNING...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF POSSIBLY OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 84 68 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 62 84 64 84 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 LAREDO 67 90 68 89 70 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 64 88 65 89 69 / 0 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 70 80 70 84 73 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 63 87 64 87 67 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 66 87 66 88 70 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 71 81 72 83 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RG/82...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 091708 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1108 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012 .DISCUSSION...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (EXCEPT SCEC OVER THE NRN BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING THE 2-KM MODIS COMPOSITE SST PATTERN) THROUGH 00Z SAT OWING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NAM DETERMINISTIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NOT FAR FROM DRY ADIABATIC COMBINED WITH NAM 20-25KT 925MB ONSHORE WIND. UNSURE WHETHER THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE SRN CWA WL VERIFY...YET STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN 25KT SUSTAINED 925MB WIND (NAM DETERMINISTIC) COUPLED WITH VERTICAL MIXING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/ DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE 12Z TAF'S. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LLWS THIS MORNING. THE WINDS UP TO AROUND 2K FT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 45 KNOTS OVER LRD TO AROUND 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS. AT THE SFC...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 5 TO 12 KNOTS. BY MID MORNING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SFC WITH SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25KT GUSTING TO 35KT. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER SUNSET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST FRI NOV 9 2012/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E TODAY AND SAT AS A POTENT LOW DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. WINDS ACROSS S TX WILL BE STRONGER IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LOW. AM EXPECTING WINDS ACROSS THE SRN CWA TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND COULD BE A REPEAT ON SATURDAY. NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED THRU SAT AS MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY THIS MORNING OR TONIGHT...HOWEVER A STRONG LLJ WILL SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND INHIBIT FOG FORMATION. WENT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR TODAY'S AND SAT'S HIGHS. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE WARMER WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVG TOWARD THE ROCKIES AND TX PANHANDLE. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE GENERALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BUT SHOULD TRANSITION TO THE SRN NEARSHORE AND SRN BAYS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL NOON AND AN SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT BY 9 AM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND BAYS S OF PORT ARANSAS. THIS PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO REPEAT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS S TX TODAY. THE LOWEST MN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH RH BETWEEN 30-35 PERCENT. THE MN RH...STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT TODAY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED BE NEAR 40 PERCENT E OF HIGHWAY 281 TO AROUND 60 PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ONE LAST WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STREAMER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND NORTHEAST CWA. MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TO SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT...WITH THE FRONT NOW ENTERING THE NORTHWEST CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACHING THE COAST AROUND 3 AM. CAP DOES WEAKEN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT AND LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET STREAK THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AND MARINE ZONES. IN ADDITION...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION. BUMPED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-37. ACROSS THE FAR WEST CWA...LIMITED MOISTURE AND DRY SLOTTING MAY PREVENT CHANCES FOR PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT... AND HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA AFTER 12Z (EXCEPT OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND FAR NORTHERN COASTAL BEND). BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SCA CONDITIONS OVER MARINES ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. PREVIOUS RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAD BEEN INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TO SOUTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. 00Z GFS IS STILL INDICATING THIS...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OFF FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS SLOWER CARRYING IT EASTWARD. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SUPPORT SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 00Z GFS. SO FOR NOW WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 87 68 88 72 88 / 10 10 10 20 10 VICTORIA 85 64 84 68 84 / 10 10 10 20 30 LAREDO 90 68 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 89 66 89 70 90 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 81 70 84 74 84 / 10 10 10 30 20 COTULLA 87 64 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 88 67 88 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 83 72 83 74 84 / 10 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...WEBB. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 102136 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 336 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC THAT THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE... CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CONUS (STREAMLINE DATA/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY)...TO ENTER THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS IS PROGD TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA. YET...UPPER JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY. CONCUR WITH THE FOREGOING DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THEN OFFSHORE. LOW CIN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH CAPES BELOW 1000J/KG SUNDAY MORNING RESTRICTED TO THE NERN CWA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVTIY THERE. INCREASING MSTR CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING JET DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION YET CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. NAM BRN VALUES IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE SUNDAY AFTN/NGT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS DRG THAT TIME PRIMARILY OVR THE ERN CWA. && .MARINE...EXPECT PREDOMINATE SCA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE WIND CONDITIONS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THE FROPA AFTER 06Z MONDAY... SCA CONDITIONS WILL RESUME...CONSISTENT WITH DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT (AND ALSO WHEN CONSIDERING 80F SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS PER 2-KM MODIS COMPOSITE SST COMBINED WITH CAA.) && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...ONLY CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING...IF ANY...WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW A MORE POTENT WAVE (AND ASSOCIATED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE)...WHILE GFS AND NAM ARE WEAKER. MEAN 1000-500MB MOISTURE FIELDS ARE 50 PERCENT OR HIGHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWFA. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE DRY AS WEAK WAVES STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AND UPPER PATTERN IS RATHER ZONAL. MOISTURE COMES BACK ENOUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION BY FRIDAY AS PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND SOME COASTAL SHOWERS COULD MOVE ONSHORE. FOR NOW...ONLY INCLUDED THE GULF WATERS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS. OTHER THAN THAT...MUCH COOLER MONDAY...CONTINUED COOL TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL WARM UP STARTING MID WEEK. SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY MONDAY...LESS WIND TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE (EAST TO SOUTHEAST) FLOW NOT OCCURRING TIL THURSDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEHIND FRONT MONDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY TO BE CONTINUED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 69 83 59 74 52 / 10 20 50 0 0 VICTORIA 67 83 54 72 41 / 10 30 60 0 0 LAREDO 70 88 54 73 51 / 10 10 10 0 0 ALICE 68 85 57 74 47 / 10 20 40 0 0 ROCKPORT 72 81 59 75 52 / 10 30 50 0 0 COTULLA 65 86 50 70 46 / 10 10 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 68 84 59 73 51 / 10 20 50 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 72 81 62 74 56 / 10 20 50 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM GW/86...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 160318 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 918 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012 .DISCUSSION...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO BE REINFORCED SOMEWHAT OVER THE CWA/MSA OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACRS THE PLAINS. DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS BASED ON NAM/GFS/LOCAL ARW DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT/NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925MB WIND/2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE. NAM/GFS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS/NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRATIFORM RAINFALL WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SRN CWA/MSA AND THUS WL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PCPN FCST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION SECTION BELOW. AVIATION...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED -RA TO KALI AND KCRP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z (GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS). WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLRD...MOST LOCATION SHOULD CONTINUE AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE CLOUD DECK LOWERS SOME. FOR KLRD...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CIGS ARE MORE LIKELY AND HAVE THAT AS PREVAILING AFTER 06Z. WITH ALL THAT SAID...GENERALLY LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS LIFT AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TAPPER OFF AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE EAST THEN ENDING AROUND 15Z OUT WEST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST THU NOV 15 2012/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THIS ALL NIGHT...HOWEVER THE VICTORIA AREA WILL BE A CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN AS THE CLEARING LINE MAY PUSH BACK INTO THAT AREA AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY THERE WITH TEMPS DECREASING A BIT...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR AS LAST NIGHT. THERE IS DEFINITELY THE POTENTIAL THOUGH THAT THIS AREA CLEARS AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S. NOT GOING TO GO THAT EXTREME THOUGH. THE SECOND ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...MAINLY WEST. PRETTY GOOD UPGLIDE SETS UP ON THE 300K SFC AND EVEN MORE ON THE 295K SFC...THIS BEING BETWEEN 800 AND 900 MB...LINING UP WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE REGION. CURRENTLY THOUGH...DPT DEPRESSIONS WEST ARE STILL AROUND 20 DEGREES...SO WILL NEED TO OVERCOME THIS. WITH SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING LIKELY IN THE LAYER EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S DESPITE THE HEAVY CLOUD COVER. WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT AROUND LAREDO...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS UNDER 20...NAM 40 TO 50)...AND QPF NUMBERS ONLY EXPECTED AT A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS IT IS...WILL STICK WITH THE 30 POPS SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...COULD SEE A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN LINGER FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THINK EVERYONE WILL BE DRY BY THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TEMPS FRIDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST IN THE LOWER 70S WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY. WESTERN AREAS PROBABLY WONT WARM ABOVE THE MID 60S (SIMILAR TO TODAY). BY FRIDAY NIGHT STRATUS DECK SHOULD BE THINNING AND WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DECREASE MORE THAN TONIGHT. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN AN EXTENDED PACKAGE OFTEN DECREASES WITH THE INCREASE IN TIME WHEN THE FORECAST ACTUALLY OCCURS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER NOW...AS MODELS ARE FLIPPING/CHANGING WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE AND TIMING OR STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEMS. SURFACE HIGH FINALLY MOVES EAST SATURDAY AND MOISTURE/ONSHORE FLOW RESUME. DO NOT THINK MUCH FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING A JET STREAK IMPACTING AREA LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY (MAY END BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT SINCE POPS ALREADY THERE WILL MAINTAIN). WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY (NO RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY)...THEN MODELS DIFFER WITH HANDLING OF MOISTURE AND UPPER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF KEEPS MORE MORE TO THE WEST (WETTER ON 00Z RUN)...GFS VERY WET. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE WEST...WITH THE NOTION THAT SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TEMPERATURES MOVE LITTLE WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 TO MID 80S AND LOWS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY MID WEEK. NOT MUCH IN WINDS INITIALLY...THEN WINDS INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE FORECAST AS SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 57 69 51 72 59 / 20 20 10 10 10 VICTORIA 49 69 42 70 46 / 10 10 10 0 10 LAREDO 56 63 55 69 61 / 30 30 10 10 10 ALICE 55 67 48 72 57 / 20 20 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 58 70 55 71 58 / 10 10 10 0 10 COTULLA 54 65 48 67 55 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 56 67 49 72 57 / 20 20 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 60 69 57 70 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 241031 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 431 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK UPGLIDE LEADING TO LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. ALL THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID MORNING AS DRIER AIR AND DOWNGLIDE COMMENCE. A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND CAA...KEPT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THE TRAPPED MOISTURE MAY HINDER LOWS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BETTER POSSIBILITY OF COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 40S. DEVELOPING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD RELAX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. GRADUAL ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH AS SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW DEVELOPS. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO THE DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACRS THE PLAINS MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUASI-ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN (IGNORING THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT APPEARS IN THE EMCWF/GFS THURSDAY OVER THE TX REGION AS THE 500MB HEIGHT ENSEMBLE MEAN BARELY REVEALS IT.) IN ADVANCE OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW/MSTR EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE FOR NOCTURAL ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND AFTN ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA. FURTHER...INCREASING ONSHORE MOMENTUM ALOFT/NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. (SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OWING TO COOLER NEAR 70F SST VALUES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON MODIS 2-KM SST COMPOSITE.) IN RESPONSE TO THE PLAINS SYSTEM...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. MSTR CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...AT LEAST MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (AT LEAST SCEC WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE). AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL... ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RESUME BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO PROG SOMEWHAT MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE NOCTURAL AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA THURSDAY/FRIDAY. (ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THUNDER FRIDAY AFTN WHEN CONSIDERING GFS CAPE MAGNITUDES.) && .MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH THE INCREASED WINDS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 50 77 61 79 / 10 10 10 10 20 VICTORIA 66 45 75 58 80 / 10 10 10 10 20 LAREDO 69 56 79 57 82 / 10 0 10 10 10 ALICE 68 51 79 59 83 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 67 52 74 64 76 / 10 10 10 20 20 COTULLA 68 49 76 56 81 / 10 0 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 68 50 78 60 83 / 10 10 10 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 67 56 74 64 76 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 252129 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 329 PM CST SUN NOV 25 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...BIGGEST IMPACT FROM AREA WEATHER WILL BE FROM CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT CLOUDS TODAY SHOULD MIX OUT THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT. SW FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE MAY AID IN PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE INFLUX TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 60S ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA AND APPROACH 60S ALONG RIO GRANDE. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS IF SKIES CLEAR OUT ENOUGH AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. PROGD SOUNDINGS ARE NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY SEA FOG FOR NORTHERN BAYS AND WATERWAYS AS SHELF WATERS HAVE COOLED TO 66 TO 68 DEGREES F /PER MODIS IMAGERY/ AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ADVECTING OVER THE WATERS...PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEA FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...HOWEVER. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MARINE AREAS TONIGHT BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. MONDAY WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE SKIRTS THROUGH IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS /MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY BECOME THICK IN THE AFTERNOON/. WARM H9 TO H8 TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLE APPROACHING 90 ACROSS SOME INLAND LOCATIONS IF WE SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE. A SURFACE TROUGH/QUASIDRYLINE MAY MOVE EAST OUT OF MEXICO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SAID LOCALE. BY LATE IN THE DAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME DPVA WILL BE INCREASING DUE TO A STRONG VORT MAX IN THE H5 LAYER MOVING EAST AS A S/W TROUGH. H25 LEVEL PLACES CWA IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH. INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE PROG TO EXIST. HAVE INCREASED POPS NEARLY AREAWIDE FOR MONDAY NIGHT. CAPE VALUES ARE PROG TO BE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -8 AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR VALUES MAY ALLOW FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. FRONT SHOULD ENTER NORTHERN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE. ONLY CAVEAT FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WOULD BE IF LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MORE SWRLY RATHER THAN BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY ENDING MUCH OF THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE TERRESTRIAL AREAS...WITH LINGERING ISOLD TO SCT PRECIPITATION OVER THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT PRETTY QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOWER 70S SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH INCREASED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOISTURE IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IN CONCERT WITH ATTENDING COASTAL TROUGH...WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 THURSDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 ON WEST SIDE OF COASTAL TROF. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 77 AND OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WITH LINGERING COASTAL TROF AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 85 60 72 50 / 10 10 50 20 10 VICTORIA 61 84 55 68 43 / 10 10 50 10 10 LAREDO 61 89 59 71 52 / 0 10 10 10 0 ALICE 63 87 59 71 47 / 10 10 50 10 0 ROCKPORT 67 82 60 69 51 / 10 10 60 20 10 COTULLA 58 84 54 69 46 / 0 10 10 10 0 KINGSVILLE 62 86 61 72 50 / 10 10 50 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 67 81 63 71 55 / 10 10 60 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ HART/79...SHORT TERM CORDERO/70...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 292126 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 326 PM CST THU NOV 29 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS MID LEVEL WEAKNESS/DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ALSO...A CLOUD DECK AROUND 4-5KFT REMAINS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT MOISTENING TREND TO CONTINUE AND WILL MAINTAIN A SIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE THE 500MB DISTURBANCES PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THUS...RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY NIGHT. BACK TO TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH THE INCREASING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT COOL AS MUCH TONIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND THUS...A SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GREATER MSTR EXPECTED SATURDAY (AS OPPOSED TO TODAY) MAY RESULT IN ISOLD NOCTURNAL COASTAL AND DIURNAL SEA BREEZE (BAYS/NEARSHORE SST VALUES 68-70F PER 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE VERSUS 80S EXPECTED OVER LAND NEAR THE COAST) CONVECTION SAT. THE GFS/ECMWF PROG A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN EXCEPT FOR A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACRS THE NRN CONUS SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY TO FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO TX. HWR...THE ECMWF/GFS PROG A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE (SOUTH OF THE MAIN TROUGH) TO MOVE ACRS TX/SRN PLAINS LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY (THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.) YET...THE CORRESPONDING SFC BOUNDARY WL LIKELY STALL NORTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTN (IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) NEVERTHELESS... GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT IN ADDITION TO INCREASING MSTR/INSTABILITY...WL FCST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CWA/MSA FOR TUESDAY. WL NOT FCST PCPN WED CONSIDERING THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE. WL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 82 64 83 64 / 20 20 10 20 10 VICTORIA 57 79 60 81 59 / 20 20 20 20 10 LAREDO 63 83 66 83 66 / 10 10 0 10 10 ALICE 61 83 62 85 63 / 10 10 10 20 10 ROCKPORT 64 77 64 79 64 / 20 20 20 20 10 COTULLA 60 82 62 82 62 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 61 82 62 83 62 / 20 10 10 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 66 77 66 79 65 / 20 20 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ RG/82...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 302139 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 339 PM CST FRI NOV 30 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED DRG THE 00-03Z SAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE INLAND CWA OWING TO WEAK SEA BREEZE/LIMITED CIN/SUFFICIENT CAPE/RECENT TREND IN PCPN. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC THAT A QUASI- ZONAL UPPER PATTERN (500MB) WILL OCCUR DRG THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS... ANTICIPATE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OWING TO SIGNIFICANT NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/20KT 925MB WIND. (SCEC NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHEN CONSIDERING COOLER SST VALUES PER 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) ANTICIPATE NOCTURAL ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT (CONSISTENT WITH LOCAL WRF-ARW/GFS AND REASONABLE CONSIDERING PWAT VALUES/NAM CIN AND CAPE PATTERNS.) NAM/GFS TIME-HEIGHT/ SOUNDING/PWAT OUTPUT INDICATE SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS SAT. YET... WILL MAINTAIN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SAT AFTN OVER THE ERN CWA (CONSISTENT WITH GFS OUTPUT.) && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN OVERALL QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND BRING SCT/BKN CLOUDS TO THE REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE CANADIAN IS THE STRONGEST WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE ECMWF/GFS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE AND ONLY BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH TEXAS. WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER SOLUTIONS AND BRING JUST A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE WOULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF IT EARLY IN THE WEEK. WILL ONLY BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW BACK FOR THURSDAY. COULD SEE OUR NEXT FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 67 81 65 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 63 79 60 82 59 / 20 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 67 84 66 83 64 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 66 84 63 85 60 / 20 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 66 77 66 80 64 / 20 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 63 82 63 82 60 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 66 83 63 84 60 / 20 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 68 77 68 78 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RG/82...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 012151 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 351 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEAK SEA BREEZE MAY PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL CWA. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUASI-ZONAL (WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES MOVG ACRS THE TX REGION.) THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA (IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.) ANTICIPATE PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT WHEN CONSIDERING THE NAM SOUNDINGS. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS SUGGEST DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND THUS WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN. HWR...GREATER MSTR EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER THE MSA SUNDAY NIGHT SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLD NOCTURAL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER 06Z MONDAY. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE CWA. && .MARINE...NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/925MB WIND/MODIS 2-KM SST COMPOSITE SUGGEST THAT SFC WIND COULD APPROACH SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. YET WILL RESTRICT TO SCEC OWING TO UNCERTAINTY/ SURROUNDING OFFICES. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN BEST CONFINED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE GULF WATERS. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR STREAMER SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS...POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND COUNTIES. PATCHY FOG THAT MORNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A S/SW FLOW AT H85 WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AND WARMER AIR TO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN REACH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DID ADD IN AN ADDITIONAL NIGHT FOR PATCHY FOG FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REACH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. WITH MOISTURE DEPTH LIMITED TO THE SURFACE...AM ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH MOST DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ATTRIBUTE TO LOW- AND MID-LEVELS WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK CONCERNING WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND POSSIBLE COLD FRONT. THE PAST RUN FINALLY HAD THE EUROPEAN PICKING UP ON A COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH IS WHAT PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD BEEN DOING. HOWEVER FOR THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FRONT WHILE THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH. FOR NOW...WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING AT A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDLEVELS WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER FOR PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN FOR THE EXTENDED WITH THE FRONT ENTERING THE REGION SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 65 82 64 83 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 64 80 61 83 62 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 69 84 63 85 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 64 84 61 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 66 77 65 77 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 65 83 60 83 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 65 84 63 84 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 67 77 67 79 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM CB/85...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 032159 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 359 PM CST MON DEC 3 2012 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...OVERALL DRY COLUMN OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...WITH PWATS LESS THAN 1 INCH...VIA THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY AS A S/SW FLOW AT H85 CONTINUES TO DRY OUT THE MIDLEVELS. MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WITH CLEARING SKIES...THE REST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE QUIET. THE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE FOG POSSIBILITY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A MOIST SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS. DID ADD IN MENTION OF SEA FOG FOR THE NORTHERN BAYS WERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH WATERS TEMPS SIMILAR AS THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW A BULK OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...OVER THE WATERS...TUESDAY MORNING. AND WITH INSTABILITY AND DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AM STILL EXPECTING STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY AREAS EAST OF PORT ARANSAS. DIDBACK OFF ON GOING FURTHER INLAND WITH POPS AS DEEP MOISTURE DOES NOT EXIST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON...H85 WINDS CONTINUE TO COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CREATING A CAP. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...MIDLEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH MOISTURE POOLING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING THE PWATS TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA...REACHING AND STALLING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TUES...AND EXITING THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WED. WITH THE CAPPING...THINKING THAT MOST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED...AND AM EXPECTING THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FRONT. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS ENDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDUCIVE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW/INCREASING NEAR SFC MSTR. GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT NEAR SFC MSTR WL RETURN TO THE CWA/MSA BY EARLY THURSDAY. ANTICIAPTE AT LEAST PATCHY RADIATION FOG OVER THE CWA DRG THE APROXIMATELY 06-14Z PERIOD COMMENCING FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG SFC DEW POINTS TO APPROACH/EXCEED SST VALUES (2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE) OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SAT/SUN. WL INTRODUCE PATCHY ADVECTION FOG FOR THE (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN) BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS FOR SAT/SUN. GFS PWAT VALUES OVER THE CWA INCREASE TO NEAR 1.2IN BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF GFS MSTR/CIN/CAPE PATTERNS SUGGEST NOCTURAL ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY YET NO SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. AFTER FRIDAY...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLNS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING/PSN OF THE TRANSITION TO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DISTURBANCE. WL DEFER TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH MOVES A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CWA MONDAY. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT YET RESRICTED TO THE ERN CWA/MSA. FURTHER...FCSTG MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS MONDAY THAN THE GFS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 65 83 61 78 59 / 10 20 20 10 10 VICTORIA 63 81 57 76 56 / 10 30 20 10 10 LAREDO 65 85 63 78 59 / 10 10 20 10 10 ALICE 63 85 60 79 58 / 10 20 20 10 10 ROCKPORT 67 77 61 74 62 / 10 20 20 10 10 COTULLA 63 83 59 76 55 / 10 10 20 10 10 KINGSVILLE 63 84 60 78 59 / 10 20 20 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 70 80 62 73 62 / 10 20 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 151016 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 416 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF TX...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ENTER SRN TX AND STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ANTICIPATED THIS AFTN OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA OWING TO INSTABILITY/SUFFICIENT MSTR/PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT...BASED ON ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT THE 300K LEVEL (GFS DETERMINISTIC)...WL FCST ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE ERN CWA/MSA. FURTHER...THE NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE ERN CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH LGT SFC WIND MAY RESULT IN FOG. SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY/MSTR SUGGESTS ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION YET CONFINED TO THE ERN CWA/MSA. NAM DETERMINISTIC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE SUNDAY AFTN (BASED ON LOW BRN VALUES.) && .MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OWING TO SEAS NEAR 7FT. (SFC WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SCEC CATEGORY TODAY.) ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER THE WATERS DRG MUCH OF THE PERIOD. NAM DETERMINISTIC DEW POINTS MAY EXCEED SST VALUES OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS (MODIS SST COMPOSITE) SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AREAS OF SEA FOG TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. YET UNSURE WHETHER VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH DENSE FOG ADVSY CRITERION. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW WILL THEN DEEPEN ACROSS THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AND HELP BRING A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S AREA WIDE ON WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BRING A STRONGER FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION MENTIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY AS ENOUGH RETURN MOISTURE LOOKS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...MUCH DIRER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 80 68 82 56 79 / 30 20 30 30 10 VICTORIA 78 64 79 49 75 / 30 30 50 20 10 LAREDO 80 64 81 54 77 / 10 10 10 10 0 ALICE 81 65 83 54 78 / 20 20 30 20 10 ROCKPORT 73 67 76 57 75 / 30 20 40 30 10 COTULLA 78 62 79 48 77 / 20 10 10 10 0 KINGSVILLE 81 65 83 54 78 / 20 20 30 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 74 69 76 60 75 / 30 20 30 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM RG/82...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 161035 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 435 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. A 500MB TROUGH EXITING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND BE THE DRIVING FORCE TO FINALLY PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS...MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL JET WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND COMBINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE...HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST WEST OF HIGHWAY 16 WHERE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR FIRST. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIMITED AS MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT APPEAR TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT. WITH THAT SAID...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OUT OVER THE WATERS BY TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS SKIES CLEAR MONDAY...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE WEST COAST TUESDAY...MOVING ACRS THE SRN ROCKIES/SWRN CONUS WEDNESDAY...ACRS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE THURSDAY/ FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING ONSHORE MOMENTUM TUESDAY (SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS) AND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA/MSA. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW NOTWITHSTANDING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...MSTR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED (CONSISTENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC PWAT VALUES/SOUNDING PROFILES) AND THUS NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE CWA... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTN...ESP OVER THE ERN CWA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE... ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS (GFS 1000-500MB 546DAM THICKNESS INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY THURSDAY/RECENT SST VALUES ABOVE 70F OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BASED ON 2-KM MODIS SST COMPOSITE.) EXPECT MIN TEMP READINGS IN THE 30S FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 81 60 80 48 79 / 40 20 10 10 0 VICTORIA 79 52 77 43 77 / 60 20 10 10 0 LAREDO 77 54 77 49 80 / 10 0 0 10 0 ALICE 81 58 80 47 81 / 30 10 10 10 0 ROCKPORT 76 60 75 52 72 / 60 20 10 10 0 COTULLA 75 48 76 42 80 / 10 0 0 10 0 KINGSVILLE 81 59 80 49 80 / 30 20 10 10 0 NAVY CORPUS 74 63 75 54 73 / 40 20 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ RG/82...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 181050 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 450 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE H5 RIDGE WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY AS THE NEXT MIDLEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KICK OFF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLE WITH WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INCREASING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PEAKING AROUND 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER FOR TODAY...A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ALOFT...AND WITH WARM H85 TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF THE SIERRA MADRE...WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ONCE MORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION REMAINS FOR TONIGHT WITH ANY FOG ISSUES. PROFILE SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH GENERALLY DRY AIR ALOFT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TO 35-40 MPH WITH SOME MIXING MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. AM THINKING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY...BUT SHOULD CLEAR LATE IN THE NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH ALSO BEGINS TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDERNEATH THE DEVELOPING CAP. ANY PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY END BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CAPPING. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT H85 WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH AND POSSIBLY EVEN EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. && .MARINE...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOP SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY IN COMBINATION WITH THE DRY AIRMASS ALOFT AS WELL AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...FOR AREAS FROM BEEVILLE TO REFUGIO WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. && .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLNS PROG AN UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACRS THE PLAINS/TX WED NGT/EARLY THU. IN RESPONSE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY. ANTICIPATE LIMITED MSTR IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND WILL NOT FCST PCPN (GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PCPN.) EXPECT AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. THE 00Z TUE CYCLE OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF PROG 30-35KT/30KT/25KT MAX SFC WIND OVER THE WATERS EARLY THU. THE NAM 40-50KT 925MB WIND/NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS (LAPSE RATES NOT UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE AT LEAST 75F SST VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS PER MODIS SST COMPOSITE) ADDS CREDENCE TO THE 30-35KT SOLN. YET WILL FCST 25-30KT SUSTAINED WIND BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC WIND. WIND/RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITION MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY AFTN. NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS ARE PSBL OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY OWING TO EXPECTATION OF LIMITED CLOUD COVER/LGT WIND/VERY LOW SFC DEW POINTS. DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT DEPICTS A TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL/WEAK AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BY SATURDAY...CONDUSIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW/WARMING TREND. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT/ DECREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OVER THE CWA/MSA DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD...SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...NOT YET PCPN. (THE ECMWF/GFS PROG THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION JUST BEYOND THIS FCST PERIOD.) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 85 66 86 54 61 / 0 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 80 61 80 47 59 / 0 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 86 66 92 51 62 / 0 10 10 10 10 ALICE 86 66 87 52 63 / 0 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 77 67 78 52 59 / 0 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 86 61 86 45 61 / 0 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 84 67 86 54 63 / 0 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 78 68 79 55 60 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ CB/85...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 092146 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 346 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013 .SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ STREAMLINE DATA REVEAL AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING TX/SRN PLAINS. THE GFS PROGS THIS SYSTEM TO LIFT NORTHEAST DRG THE PERIOD WHILE THE ASSOCIATED STRONG JET DYNAMICS MOVES ACRS CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT/ EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY. YET...THIS FRONT IS PROGD TO STALL NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH IS REASONABLE SINCE THE FOREGOING UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS AWAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE JET...THE 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CWA/MSA SHOULD INCREASE. BASED ON GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS...EXPECT BRN VALUES IN THE SUPERCELLULAR RANGE OVER THE CWA. YET...CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE HIGH OVERNIGHT YET INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICS MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION (ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA.) NEVERTHELESS...THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT PARCELS TO THEIR LFC VALUES. THUS...ANTICIPATE MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDER OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE CLOSER TO THE FRONT/UPPER DYNAMICS. THE GREATEST POPS WL BE CONFINED TO THE NERN CWA FOR TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY. GFS/NAM PROG ISENTROPIC DESCENT/DRYING OVER THE CWA SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTN. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONT/WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES/MSTR TO GENERATE PCPN. (THE GFS ALSO PROGS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.) && .MARINE...STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT (NAM 925KT 40-45KT WIND) AND SIGNIFICANT (YET NOT DRY ADIABATIC) NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF-ARW CONSISTENT WITH 20KT+ SFC WIND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. YET... BASED ON COMPARISON OF DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH BUOY DATA AND ANALYSIS OF 2-KM MODIS SST...EXPECT SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. YET...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL AROUND 06Z SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WEAK FRONTAL BDRY IS PROGD TO DRIFT S ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND LIGHT. THE BDRY IS PROGD TO STALL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON TUE. MODELS HAVE VARIED ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. THE LATEST RUNS WERE ALL WEAKER WITH THE WIND SPEEDS...HOWEVER 35-40KT NW FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX BY TUE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THEREFORE KEPT WINDS STRONGER THAN WHAT MODELS SUGGESTED BUT DID LOWER THEM SOMEWHAT GIVEN THIS IS DAY 4 AND MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT. AS FOR PRECIP...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ON MONDAY WITH THE STALLING BDRY AND OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO STRATIFORM RAIN DURING LATER UPDATES IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES. SHRA/TSRA CHCS INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS THE STRONGER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW INCREASING CAPE AND LI ALONG WITH THE RRQ OF A 140KT UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING HELICITY VALUES NEAR 300 AND PWATS UP TO 1.6 INCHES BY TUE 12Z. IF THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...THEN STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR WX WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE CAVEAT IS A STRONG SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH TYPICALLY WINS OUT ACROSS S TX. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...DRIER AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DVLP BY TUE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FROPA...THE THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER MAY BECOME ELEVATED TO CRITICAL ON TUE. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE BY WED/WED NIGHT. THEN WARMER THU AHD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SOMETIME FRI OR SATURDAY...THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER MODEL. THERE ARE ALSO DISCREPANCIES AS TO PRECIP WITH THE LATE WEEK FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THIS LATER FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 85 61 76 62 / 20 20 30 20 30 VICTORIA 66 79 51 73 53 / 30 30 20 20 30 LAREDO 67 83 63 78 63 / 20 10 20 20 20 ALICE 68 87 60 77 63 / 20 20 30 20 30 ROCKPORT 66 76 58 72 60 / 20 20 30 20 30 COTULLA 65 80 54 75 56 / 30 10 20 20 20 KINGSVILLE 68 87 62 77 64 / 20 10 30 20 30 NAVY CORPUS 67 77 63 74 64 / 20 20 30 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM TE/81...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 241024 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 424 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013 .SHORT TERM...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE FOG IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF CORPUS CHRISTI HAVE ONLY OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...NOTED VIA WEB CAMS AND 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE PRODUCT. FOG CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID- MORNING. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING FURTHER. THIS MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO A SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER MAINLY BELOW 900-850 MB. WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR STREAMER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER PROGGED MID LEVEL TEMPS COULD ALLOW FOR AN ERODING CAP THIS AFTERNOON. THINK WE SHOULD JUST HAVE SHOWERS...IF ANYTHING TODAY...BUT A THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH. ONLY A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE MODELS GO OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT THE TTU WRF DOES BRING A VERY THIN LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER JET PUSHING WITH GOOD TIMING TONIGHT. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY THE JET LINES UP AND WHICH QUAD WE WILL BE IN. SOME VARIATION IN MODELS...BUT MOST SUGGEST THE BEST DYNAMICS/TIMING TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY INTO THE VICTORIA AREA. HAVE LEFT THE 20/30 POPS GOING FROM YESTERDAY WITH PLENTY OF DOUBT STILL IN PLAY WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND THE CAP POTENTIALLY BEING REINFORCED BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. 850 AND 925 MB WINDS AS STRONG AS 50 TO 60 KNOTS ARE INDICATED IN ALL GUIDANCE...AND SHOULD SEE A PORTION OF THAT MIX DOWN. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ABOVE 40 KTS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THESE WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY PRETTY CLEAR WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE TOUGH HOWEVER. DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S...HAVE A TOUGH TIME BELIEVING THIS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH A 30 KT NORTHWESTERLY WIND AND THICKNESS VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 550 AND 560 DURING THE DAY. HAVE HIGHS IN THE FAR EAST INDICATED AROUND 70...BUT THAT WOULD LIKELY BE PRE-FRONTAL. THINK DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST EVERYONE...AND WILL FEEL COOLER THAN THAT WITH THE BRISK WIND. && .LONG TERM...DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF PROG THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER TX/SRN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD TO LIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM MERGES WITH IT FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT (PER 1000-500MB THICKNESS) WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S EARLY TUESDAY. (CONSIDERING BOTH THE EXPECTED COLDER AIR MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CURRENT MODIS SST VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...STRONG SCA LIKELY/GALE PBL MONDAY EVENING.) IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER PATTERN AFTER THE FOREGOING MERGER...ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. NO PCPN EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT (OWING TO DRYING IN RESPONSE TO THE MONDAY FRONT.) SLIGHT DIFFERENCES NOTWITHSTANDING...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG AN UPPER PATTERN WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE (MEAN TROUGH WEST COAST AND MEAN TROUGH ERN CONUS) DEVELOPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. SUCH WL BE CONDUCIVE TO A REINFORCING SURGE OF MSLP OVER THER REGION FRIDAY. THUS...DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED DRG THE PERIOD WITH BELOW AVERAGE MIN TEMPS. && .MARINE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OPEN WATER AREAS ON MONDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AND CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT AROUND GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE BAYS. && .FIRE WEATHER...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE RISK FOR MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET MONDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 76 63 71 41 74 / 10 20 20 0 0 VICTORIA 72 60 68 39 71 / 10 30 30 0 0 LAREDO 80 57 70 40 78 / 10 10 10 0 0 ALICE 78 61 70 40 76 / 10 20 10 0 0 ROCKPORT 71 64 71 45 69 / 20 30 20 0 0 COTULLA 78 56 66 37 74 / 10 20 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 77 63 71 39 76 / 10 20 20 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 71 66 72 47 70 / 20 20 20 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES... REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ PZ/83...SHORT TERM WC/87...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 032145 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 345 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE WEST COAST (WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/STREAMLINE DATA) PROGD TO ENTER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY MONDAY THEN MERGE INTO A STG UPPER LOW WITH AXIS MOVG EAST OF THE PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA WITH STG WIND AT 925MB OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL MIXING MONDAY WL CONTRIBUTE TO BREEZY/WINDY SOUTH WIND MONDAY AFTN PRIMARILY OVER THE ERN CWA. OWING TO SOUTH WIND COMPONENT...DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR/SOUTH WIND WL CONTRIBUTE TO HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN CWA WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S OVER THE FAR WEST. AS THE FOREGOING UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THE GFS/NAM PROG A FRONT TO APPROACH THE NRN CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM. THE PSN OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SUGGEST A SLOWER TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THUS MORE CONFIDENT IN THE SLOWER NAM. && .MARINE...VERTICAL MIXING OF THE INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT (30-40KT FROM NAM 925MB AT 12Z MONDAY) MENTIONED ABOVE WL CONTRIBUTE TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT WHEN CONSIDERING NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES/MODIS SST VALUES. ANTICIPATE THAT LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING WL RESULT IN SCEC OVER THE BAYS TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY MONDAY MID MORNING. ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE PERIOD BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND FOR THE BAY WATERS BEGINNING 14Z MONDAY. EXTENDED SCA ONLY TO 00Z TUESDAY OWING TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SCA OVER THE BAYS BY THEN. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WARRANTS AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITION OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND FOR MONDAY AFTN. && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME EXPECT IT TO BE ALONG THE COAST BY AROUND 15Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASING WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH LEADING TO A FIRE WEATHER RISK. WILL HOLD ON TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...BUT AN UPGRADE TO RED FLAG WARNING IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW. THE RIDGE WILL THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FLOW LOOKS TO BE MORE EFFICIENT AT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THAN ANYTHING WE/VE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SOME POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD START SEEING SOME STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THINGS ARE LOOKING SOMEWHAT PROMISING FOR SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS STILL HAVE NOT REALLY DECIDED ON A SOLUTION...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY. WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH...WOULD EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A FEW DAYS OF MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...WE SHOULD HAVE SOME HOPE AT PRECIP. GOING TO HOLD WITH JUST 20 POPS FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS GET MORE CLEAR. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...NOTHING TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY. AFTER THE WARMTH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK COOL...BUT THEN TEMPS MODERATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 58 84 60 74 42 / 0 0 0 10 0 VICTORIA 54 78 57 69 37 / 0 0 0 10 0 LAREDO 55 93 54 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 ALICE 53 90 55 74 41 / 0 0 0 10 0 ROCKPORT 60 73 61 70 44 / 0 0 0 10 0 COTULLA 51 91 51 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 54 88 59 74 39 / 0 0 0 10 0 NAVY CORPUS 61 76 62 73 48 / 0 0 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL... GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK... MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA... WEBB. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM PZ/83...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 210934 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 434 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS WHICH DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS/ROCKIES DRG THE PERIOD AND APPROACHING THE PLAINS/TX AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA. ANTICIPATE BREEZY/WINDY OVER AT LEAST THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGIONS TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO ENTER AT LEAST CNTRL TX FRIDAY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES NOT DEPICT PCPN ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE CWA. THE NAM DETERMINISTIC DOES GENERATE PCPN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. HWR... DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT WL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS DEPICTED WHEN CONSIDERING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THUS WL NOT INTRODUCE PCPN FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT. ISENTROPIC LIFT DRG THE PERIOD (PER CONDITIONS AT 300K LEVEL OF THE GFS) WL CONTRIBUTE TO CLOUD COVER DRG THE PERIOD...YET GFS SOUNDING PROFILE NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. THUS EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER YET NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN DRG THE PERIOD. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY. && .MARINE...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL BE CONDUCIVE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ALOFT DRG THE PERIOD. ANTICIPATE PREDOMINATE SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY OWING TO VERTICAL MIXING OF INCREASING MOMENTUM ALOFT. (NAM/LOCAL ARW SUGGEST BARELY SCA THIS AFTN YET FEEL THAT MID/UPPER 60S SST VALUES PER MODIS SST COMPOSITE WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING.) EXPECT WIND NEAR THE SCEC/SCA BOUNDARY TNGT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN INCREASING WIND ALOFT AND DECREASING 0-1KM LAPSE RATES. AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG EXPECTED DRG THE 06-15Z FRIDAY PERIOD BASED ON EXPECTED SFC DEW POINT/SST VALUES. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY LINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVE E ACROSS S TX ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN HOW FAR E THE BDRY GOES. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED HOT TEMPS ACROSS THE W CWA...A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND BRING THE DRY LINE TO A HALT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE E CWA. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON PRECIP CHCS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST THE E-NE CWA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA'S AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME SAT MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA'S/TSRA'S ACROSS THE NE FROM 12-18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTING FARTHER S...A SHORT WAVE PROGD BY ALL THE MODELS TO MV NE ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING CAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE AND PW'S PROGD TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NE DUE TO THE COLLISION OF THE DRY LINE AND THE SEA BREEZE. THE CIN WILL BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF S TX...BUT IS PROGD TO BE THE LOWEST ACROSS THE NE AND DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT FOR THE NE DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE DRY LINE WILL STALL IN THE AFTERNOON...IF IT EVEN DOES STALL. HAVE DECREASED HIGHS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY FOR THE VCT AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP. ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED THE HIGHS FARTHER DOWN THE COAST BUT LEFT THE VERY WARM TEMPS FOR THE W CWA DUE TO A W-NW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE DRY LINE. DUE TO VERY LOW RH VALUES AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE W ON SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER DANGER THREAT MAY BE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL. A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY BUT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE DRY LINE WILL HAVE PUSHED ANY MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA OUT INTO THE GULF. COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX THRU SUNDAY WITH MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS ARE PROGD TO BE BELOW NORM WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL. A GENERALLY E TO NE FLOW WILL DVLP SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY ACROSS MARINE AREAS. THE FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN MOD ACROSS THE GULF THRU EARLY WED. WINDS ARE PROGD TO VEER TO THE SE BY WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO S TX ON TUE...BUT WILL ONLY GO WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 79 66 83 69 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 76 64 82 66 85 / 10 10 10 20 20 LAREDO 87 66 95 70 99 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 82 66 88 68 96 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 72 66 74 68 83 / 10 10 10 20 20 COTULLA 85 62 93 67 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 81 66 86 68 95 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 73 67 75 69 83 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM TE/81...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 271952 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 252 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRG THE PERIOD (GFS DETERMINISTIC) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE CWA/MSA. THE GFS PROGS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES YET MUCH OF THIS INCREASE LIKELY FROM UPPER LEVEL MSTR (PER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MIXING RATIO AT THE GFS 320K/325K ISENTROPIC LEVELS.) ISENTROPIC LIFT TO CONTINUE YET CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN (PER GFS 300K LEVEL DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT.) THUS WL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REGION DRG THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED (WITH CLOUD COVER AS A LIMITING FACTOR.) && .MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM PROGS 20-25K WIND ONSHORE FLOW AT 925MB ALONG WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES...CONFIDENT THAT COOL SST VALUES IN THE 60S/NEAR 70 (MODIS SST COMPOSITE) OVER THE WATERS WL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. THUS WL FCST WIND NO GREATER THAN THE SCEC CATEGORY. && .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...BUT MODERATE CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. SOME UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS BY SATURDAY AS JET STREAK SETS UP AND IMPLIES SOME MIDLVL CAP EROSION. WILL LEAVE IN LOW CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTEMPLATING A VERY LOW QPF EVENT. BEYOND SUNDAY MODELS ARE IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT. GENERAL IDEA IS FOR A LARGE ARCTIC UPPER LOW TO SET UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IN SPLIT FLOW WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THROUGH THIS BROAD TROF AS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN A CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS...GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE THAN THE ECMWF...REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN THE LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL PAINT LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOSER TO THE EC SOLN...AND AWAIT A LESS DISSONANT SET OF MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...AFTER WHICH TRENDS BECOME LESS CLEAR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 59 78 64 82 66 / 10 10 10 10 20 VICTORIA 53 74 58 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 20 LAREDO 60 79 63 84 67 / 10 10 10 10 20 ALICE 58 79 62 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 20 ROCKPORT 61 71 65 77 67 / 10 10 10 10 20 COTULLA 56 78 60 81 64 / 10 10 10 10 20 KINGSVILLE 57 78 63 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 20 NAVY CORPUS 62 72 66 79 68 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM JV/71...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 282005 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 305 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS PROGD TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE GFS/NAM PROG A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS PROGS PWAT VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH AREAWIDE LATE FRIDAY IN PHASE WITH THE FOREGOING DISTURBANCE... CONFIDENCE IN PCPN REMAINS LOW WHEN CONSIDERING NIL GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE CWA/MSA. FROM THE ISENTROPIC PERSPECTIVE...THE GFS PROGS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DRG THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THE GFS PROGS LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 295/300K FOR THIS AFTN YET NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN CURRENTLY FALLING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FOREGOING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT MAGNITUDES PROGD. THUS EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE YET WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT PCPN. CLOUDS WL LIMIT THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THUS...DOWNWARD VERTICAL MIXING OF MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT DRG THE AFTN LIMITED AND THUS WL MAINTAIN MAX WIND OVER LAND NEAR BREEZY RATHER THAN WINDY. && .MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN PSBL OVER THE SRN BAYS LATE THIS AFTN OWING TO LIMITED VERTICAL MIXING DRG THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WL MAINTAIN THE SCA FOR THE SRN BAYS UNTIL 23Z. NAM PROG 925MB 20-25KT ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT/FRIDAY ALONG WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-1KM LAPSE RATES. YET...FEEL THAT SST VALUES (MODIS SST COMPOSITE) WL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER LAPSE RATES AND THUS LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING. THUS WL KEEP WIND BELOW SCEC TONIGHT/FRIDAY. SMALLER WIND MAGNITUDES PROGD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY PESSIMISTIC FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAY NOW LOOKS TO HAVE A STRONGER CAP TO OVERCOME THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. CLOUDY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EASTER MONDAY. LONGWAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A LARGE POLAR LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM THAT VORTEX IN A WIDE SWEEPING ARC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...INCLUDING SOUTH TEXAS WHERE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ITSELF APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM RAIN COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY AS GULF AIR IS LIFTED UP OVER THE SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS APPEARS OVERDONE IN BOTH EXTENT OF COOL AIR AND STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...BUT LOW CHANCE POPS AND TEMPERATURES BELOW EARLY APRIL NORMALS APPEAR WARRANTED. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MARINE HEADLINES POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL HINTING AT COASTAL LOW GENERATION ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGE EASTERN VORTEX TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE EFFECTS OF THIS WILL MAINLY BE FELT EAST OF THE COASTAL BEND...BUT THE PATTERN CERTAINLY WARRANTS SCRUTINY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 77 65 80 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 59 75 62 78 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 63 83 64 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 62 79 63 82 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 64 72 66 74 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 59 81 63 84 65 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 63 78 64 80 66 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 65 72 66 74 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM JV/71...LONG TERM  FXUS64 KCRP 200443 AAA AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1043 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013 .DISCUSSION...SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AS ANTICIPATED PER METARS/SPORT HYBRID MODIS-VIIRS-GOES 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY. NAM DETERMINISTIC MAINTAINS VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 NM. SREF PROBABILITIES LOW WITH REGARD TO VSBYS BELOW 1 NM. LOCAL WRF-ARW DOES NOT LOWER VSBYS UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. THUS WL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVSY. LOWER WIND OVER LAND OWING TO RECENT METARS/EXPECTED CONDITIONS WHEN CONSIDERING 0-1KM NAM LAPSE RATES. MAINTAINED SCA OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SCEC OVER THE NEARSHORE WHEN CONSIDERING SPORT SST COMPOSITE VALUES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF CYCLE. AVIATION...NLLJ ONCE AGAIN THE FOCUS OF AVIATION CONCERNS AS ITS STRENGTH INCREASES LLWS AND FOCUSES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CIG RESTRICTIONS RATHER THAN VIS. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO OCNLY BECOME IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEN SLOWLY LIFT AS DAYTIME MIXING BRINGS STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A DEEP CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER S CA AND NRN BAJA CA THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGD TO MOV ACROSS NRN MEXICO THROUGH FRI. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND CONTINUE TO USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX. EXPECTING A MIX OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE W CWA WHERE THE LLJ IS NOT AS STRONG. AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH...IF ANY...DENSE FOG ACROSS S TX AS SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED TO KEEP THE AIRMASS SLIGHTLY MIXED. THAT BEING SAID...SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP TONIGHT AND COULD ADVECT INLAND AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE LLJ WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX TO THE SFC ON FRI...HOWEVER THE MODELS SHOW MUCH WEAKER LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE MIXING. AM EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT WITH SPEEDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS LOWER THAN TODAY. MODELS SHOW THE LLJ SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENING FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE TX COAST AND OVER THE TX COASTAL WATERS BUT WITH MUCH LESS MIXING...MAKING FOR A TRICKY WIND FCST. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHCS TONIGHT OR FRI AS LOW/MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE AND STRENGTHEN A CAPPING INVERSION. KEPT 5-10 POPS WITH THE MENTION OF -SHRA'S FRI MORNING. RAIN CHCS THEN INCREASE FRI NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA WHERE THE CAP IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. KEPT THE 30 POP ACROSS THE NE BUT LOWERED TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. FEEL RAIN CHCS WILL BE EVEN LOWER FOR THE WESTERN CWA FRI NIGHT DUE TO LARGE CIN VALUES...BUT MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP ACROSS MEX AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS THE AREA. THUS KEPT THE 20 FOR THE WEST AS WELL. HAVE INTRODUCED -TSRA FOR THE NE CWA FOR LATE FRI NIGHT DUE TO MODERATE CAPE...LEAST AMOUNT OF CIN/CAP...DEEPER MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY TO UPPER RRQ OF APPROACHING JET. MARINE...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM MOD TO STRONG THROUGH FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA'S FRI MORNING AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT. MAIN ISSUE OF CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPING SEA FOG TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. THIS POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE REGION. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DUG DEEP TO THE SOUTH...INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN AND ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING. BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LINED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...AS LOW LEVEL WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS SATURDAY MORNING... TAPERING OFF TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. DESPITE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHWEST...HAVE NOT COMPLETELY REMOVED POPS OUT WEST IN THE MORNING...WITH THE THINKING OF ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY. SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE SITUATED IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 135KT JET STREAK. DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE THESE PARAMETERS RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SPC DAY THREE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. FIRST DAY OF WINTER IS SATURDAY...AND WE MAY BE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF HIGH TEMPS AT CRP/LRD/VCT. MILD CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND GLANCING BLOW OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WIND DROPS OFF INLAND TUESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY...LEADING TO LOWS TUESDAY MORNING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S INLAND. LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS TUESDAY MORNING. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURNING CHRISTMAS DAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING. FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BRUSH COUNTRY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ACTUALLY LAGS BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPING WEST-NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BRUSH COUNTRY...AND SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...LEADING TO DRY...WARM CONDITIONS. RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE...AND WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 MPH. WITH FUELS NOW CURED FROM RECENT FREEZE AND FROST...THIS COULD RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES...BUT WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED AND CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 68 79 68 83 52 / 10 10 20 30 0 VICTORIA 64 78 67 79 48 / 10 10 30 70 10 LAREDO 62 86 67 83 50 / 0 10 20 20 0 ALICE 64 84 68 85 51 / 10 10 20 20 0 ROCKPORT 65 73 68 78 51 / 10 10 30 50 10 COTULLA 58 82 64 79 46 / 0 10 20 30 0 KINGSVILLE 66 83 69 86 53 / 10 10 20 20 0 NAVY CORPUS 66 75 70 79 54 / 10 10 20 30 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM