FXUS61 KBUF 281104 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 704 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT AND CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A WINDOW OF FAIR BUT CHILLY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A VERY EARLY SEASON COASTAL STORM WILL THEN PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A RARE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LATE OCTOBER SNOW TO THE EAST COAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EXPERIMENTAL MODIS IMAGERY AT 08Z SHOWS DENDRITIC FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING...A GOOD INDICATION OF VALLEY FOG. KJHW IS WITHIN THE FOG AND HAS BEEN DOWN BELOW 1/4 MI SINCE 10Z. SO HAVE ADDED MORNING FOG TO THE FORECAST IN TYPICAL INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A SPS IS ALSO OUT NOTING BLACK ICE AS ONLY A FEW AREAS HAVE HAD MUCH DEICING WINTER ROAD TREATMENT. WHILE IT WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...IT SHOULD FEEL MARKEDLY BETTER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN MANY SAW THEIR FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AND THIS WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE H85 TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF -4C...SUN FILLED SKIES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. FAIR WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE ONE INTERESTING FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT PCPN OFF LK ERIE. WHILE IT CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...A HIGHLY SHEARED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE. THE GENERAL FLOW WILL VARY FROM 200-240 DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH SFC-10K FT WINDS LIKELY TOO SHEARED TO ALLOW FOR ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. WILL THUS COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH SLGT-LOW CHC POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOUND OVER THE LAKE OR ALONG ITS NORTHERN CANADIAN SHORES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/CAROLINAS AND WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN A DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS DEVELOPING NOREASTER WILL RAPIDLY TRACK UP THE EAST COAST CREATING NUMEROUS FORECAST PROBLEMS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WESTERN NEW YORK HOWEVER WILL FIND ITSELF FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT IT SHOULD AVOID MOST OF THE ACTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS TRY TO WRAP SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...HOWEVER AM THINKING THAT THIS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE AS THE LOW TRACK IS JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD MISS US. THAT SAID...IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE A RATHER DISMAL DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND AND TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL COURTESY OF THE COLD UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD. EXPECT HIGHS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40S NEAR THE LAKES WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND LAGGING IN THE 30S. WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE...A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INDICATED IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND GIVEN THAT FACT IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE VERY LIMITED...MOSTLY TO THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES IF AT ALL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...DRYING THINGS OUT FURTHER AND RESULTING IN A SUNNIER SECOND HALF TO THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY KEEP A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN ACROSS THE SKIES OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MODERATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND GREATER INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR CLOUD COVER TO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER/WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS COMPARED TO SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DIPS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. AS WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN MISS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW DIVES UNDERNEATH OUR REGION LEAVING US UNDER LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST GENERAL CLOUDINESS. GRADUAL WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH TO NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR THE LAKE WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS STAYING IN THE 40S. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WITH WESTERN NEW YORK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOOK FOR GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CREEP CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO MARCH OUT OF THE MIDWEST BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THERE IS A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND AT THIS POINT IT MAY BE JUST AS LIKELY THAT HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ASIDE FROM TYPICAL LIFR CONDITIONS WITH INLAND VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS REGION- WIDE. THIS WILL INCLUDE CLR-SCT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SFC WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...DESPITE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE STATE. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND WILL CONSIST OF VFR CIGS OF 5-10K FT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY...THEN WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WAVES WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE FOUND OVER THE LOWER LAKES ON SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>006-010- 011-013-014-019-085. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF SHORT TERM...WOOD LONG TERM...WOOD AVIATION...RSH/ZAFF MARINE...RSH  FXUS61 KBUF 111449 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 949 AM EST MON FEB 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY TODAY...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND A WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THIS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STACKED LOW SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON SOUTH THROUGH OH. AHEAD OF THIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION IS MOVING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND WILL DROP MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED ADVISORIES FROM THE FORECAST. FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVE...THE DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE COOLING AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IT A PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS.../GUSTING 45-50 MPH FOR THIS EVENT/ LASTING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. AS WIND VEERS FROM SW TO W...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE INLAND AS WELL. WINDS ALOFT ARE STRONGER OVER FAR WESTERN NY THAN OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE...SO CURRENT ADVISORY CUTOFF OF CAYUGA COUNTY LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. LATER TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO ABOUT -10C AT 850MB IN THE WEST...AND ONLY -6 OR SO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALBEIT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. THIS IS HARDLY ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE RESPONSE GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0-1C IN LAKE ERIE AND 3-4C OVER LAKE ONTARIO BASED OFF OF LATEST MODIS GUIDANCE AND POINT OBSERVATIONS. WILL WAIT FOR NEW GUIDANCE TO DETERMINE IF ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY /T-3 INCHES/ ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WITH T-1 INCHES ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ON TUESDAY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL SET UP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM BEING MORE THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF BOTH GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND -10C THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH CREATES VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ERIE...AND ONLY MINOR LAKE INSTABILITY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...DRIER AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LOWER THIS MOISTURE TO JUST BELOW THE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH WEAK UPWARD OMEGA FORCING THERE WILL NOT BE GOOD SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND CATEGORICAL POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS WNY TUESDAY AND THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A SNOW SHOWER EVEN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO CAUSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BE TRANSITORY THROUGH THE DAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS SNOW EVENT FOR THE TUG HILL REGION CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WITH A CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN PLACE WILL JUST MENTION THE PROSPECTS FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN THE HWO. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL NOT CLIMB TOO MUCH FROM THEIR MORNING LOWS...WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY LARGELY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW CARRIES FARTHER EASTWARD THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. TUESDAY NIGHT SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...YET THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE FLOW VEERING A LITTLE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL BE MORE FOCUSED UPON OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY FURTHER DRYING ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING AN END TO THE WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT JUST A CHANCE FOR MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CARRYING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING TO FLURRIES JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO ABOUT WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY THE UPPER GENESEE RIVER VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH A SPOT 40 POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DURING THIS PERIOD...GFS/ECMWF FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. INITIALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TREND COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE...IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION..THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH TIMING AND THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NY WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ALL TAF LOCATIONS FREE OF PRECIPITATION AS OF 15Z BUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS IN THE WEST AND 30KTS IN THE EAST. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW IN BETWEEN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN. AFTER THIS...EXPECT A BIT OF LULL...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE AN INCREASE TO 35 KNOT GALES BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-013-014-020-021. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043-062-063. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ045. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...ZAFF SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...ZAFF MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS  FXUS61 KBUF 111801 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 101 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN EARLY TODAY...WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND A WINTRY MIX EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THIS WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A STACKED LOW SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WNY...WITH A NARROW BOUNDARY PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE 30S...WITH GUSTY WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING UPSTREAM. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. FOR WINDS...ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY...EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH GUSTS IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE /ADVISORY/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...SO WINDS WILL SLACKEN OFF TOWARD THE EAST...SO CURRENT ADVISORY CUTOFF OF CAYUGA COUNTY LOOKING GOOD AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HIGHEST WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LAKESHORES. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. FOR SNOW...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO ABOUT -10C AT 850MB IN THE WEST TONIGHT...AND ONLY -6 TO -8C OR SO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALBEIT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE. WHILE THIS IS BARELY ENOUGH FOR A GOOD LAKE RESPONSE GIVEN LAKE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 0-1C IN LAKE ERIE AND 3-4C OVER LAKE ONTARIO BASED OFF OF LATEST MODIS GUIDANCE AND POINT OBSERVATIONS...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FETCH OFF THE LAKE TO WARRANT A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SNOW WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TUG HILL AND WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF OSWEGO AND LEWIS COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY /T-3 INCHES/ ACCUMULATIONS IN UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...WITH T-1 INCHES ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TUESDAY NIGHT SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...YET THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN THESE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE FLOW VEERING A LITTLE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WILL BE MORE FOCUSED UPON OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. WEDNESDAY FURTHER DRYING ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING AN END TO THE WEAK LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT JUST A CHANCE FOR MORNING LAKE EFFECT SNOW...CARRYING NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING TO FLURRIES JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS OUR REGION...CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH THE AXIS OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST. A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO ABOUT WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSFERS ENERGY TO A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW THAT WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MISS OUR AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY THE UPPER GENESEE RIVER VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH A SPOT 40 POSSIBLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DURING THIS PERIOD...GFS/ECMWF FEATURE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE U.S FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. INITIALLY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TREND COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND SATURDAY TO SUNDAY. A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET THE STAGE...IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE REGION..THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH TIMING AND THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NY WILL SEE A GRADUAL RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALL TAF LOCATIONS FREE OF PRECIPITATION AS OF 15Z BUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS IN THE WEST AND 30KTS IN THE EAST. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW IN BETWEEN TAF SITES. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE...AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN. AFTER THIS...EXPECT A BIT OF LULL...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AROUND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE AN INCREASE TO 35 KNOT GALES BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012- 019-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008. WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-013-014-020-021. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040- 041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043- 062-063. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ045. GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...APFFEL NEAR TERM...ZAFF SHORT TERM...THOMAS LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...ZAFF MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS  FXUS61 KBUF 112034 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 334 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC OVER THE NEXT 12HRS...THEN TO NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN NY...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. UPSTREAM IN THE COLD POOL...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP CAN BE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT /USING 500MB AS A PROXY/ WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY COLD AIR MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR AT LEAST SOME LAKE RESPONSE. LAKE EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...850MB TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY DROP TO -10C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LAKE ONTARIO IS ABOUT 3-4C BASED OFF OF MODIS AND OBSERVATIONS...MAKING FOR MARGINALLY INTERESTING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THERE MAY ALSO BE TOO MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LAKE FOR A SINGLE LAKE BAND. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DECENT FETCH TOGETHER WITH FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SNOWFALL TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST WILL AS USUAL BE THE TRIPLE POINT OF LEWIS...JEFFERSON...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...IE TUG HILL...THEN SOUTHERN TUG HILL ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ORIENTED TO THE WNW. LAKE EFFECT FOR EAST OF LAKE ERIE...COLD AIR MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY HERE...BUT ALSO A CAP AROUND 4000 FT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...PLUS LESS FETCH...WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN TYPICAL UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN ERIE...WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...WITH WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT OR NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WIND...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING...WITH TYPICALLY FAVORED EXPOSED AREAS/SHORELINE LOCATIONS FEELING THE HIGHEST GUSTS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-50 RANGE...AND WILL KEEP THIS UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY FINGER LAKES WEST COINCIDING WITH MIXING WITH HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE ALREADY CREEPING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 3PM. ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EAST OF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MID LEVEL DRYING WILL WEAKEN THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTICUALRLY EAST OF LK ERIE WHERE THE DRYING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH EAST OF ERIE AND ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TUG. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY REMAINING NUISANCE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING WILL CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ITS ATTENDENT SFC LOW WILL BE FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE AFORMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FROM PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES (PRONOUNCED CHANNELLED VORT) TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PRODUCE A FEED OF CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM (AS PER THE GFS)...ANY SUCH STORM WOULD HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IN FACT...LOW IMPACT WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE ACCUMULATIONS. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD AIRMASS WORKS IT WAY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN STANDARD TAF LOCATIONS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN KJHW. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER WESTERN NY AREAS...WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE EFFECT BANDS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS && .MARINE... WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-010>012- 019-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-013-014-020- 021. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043- 062-063. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ045. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ZAFF NEAR TERM...ZAFF SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...ZAFF MARINE...ZAFF  FXUS61 KBUF 120003 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 703 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING SEVERAL BANDS OF PRECIP CROSSING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP WILL FOLLOW THIS ACTIVITY... FOLLOWED BY MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LAKES...ESPECIALLY ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC OVER THE NEXT 12HRS...THEN TO NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN NY...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO AND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. UPSTREAM IN THE COLD POOL...A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIP CAN BE FOUND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT /USING 500MB AS A PROXY/ WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY COLD AIR MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR AT LEAST SOME MINOR LAKE RESPONSE...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. LAKE EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...850MB TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY DROP TO THE -8C TO -10C RANGE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. LAKE ONTARIO IS ABOUT 3-4C BASED OFF OF MODIS AND OBSERVATIONS...MAKING FOR MARGINALLY INTERESTING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. THERE MAY ALSO BE TOO MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LAKE FOR A SINGLE LAKE BAND. HOWEVER...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DECENT FETCH TOGETHER WITH FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AT THE EAST END OF THE LAKE AS WINDS SLOW DOWN AND PILE UP...THIS SHOULD ALL FAVOR PERSISTENT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKE. THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RATHER THAN LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES. THIS WILL CONFINE THE ADVISORY CRITERIA AMOUNTS TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND PERHAPS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT PURELY LAKE EFFECT...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS STILL THE BEST MEANS TO CONVEY THE MESSAGE THAT THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE...ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT TOTALS TO REACH THE 5-9 INCH RANGE IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE TUG HILL...WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. LAKE EFFECT FOR EAST OF LAKE ERIE...COLD AIR MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY HERE...BUT ALSO A CAP AROUND 4000 FT DEVELOPS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...PLUS LESS FETCH...WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR TWO IN TYPICAL UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING... CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES MORE DRIVEN BY MOIST UPSLOPE THAN LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT OR NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WIND...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING...WITH TYPICALLY FAVORED EXPOSED AREAS/SHORELINE LOCATIONS FEELING THE HIGHEST GUSTS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-50 RANGE...AND WILL KEEP THIS UNCHANGED IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY FINGER LAKES WEST COINCIDING WITH MIXING WITH HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. SOME OF THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE ALREADY CREEPING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT 3PM. ON TUESDAY...ASIDE FROM CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT EAST OF LAKE ERIE...EXPECT ANY LINGERING FLURRY ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND CONTINUED MID LEVEL DRYING WILL WEAKEN THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTICUALRLY EAST OF LK ERIE WHERE THE DRYING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED. FRESH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH EAST OF ERIE AND ONE TO TWO INCHES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE TUG. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH WILL PROVIDE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25. ON WEDNESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERAL SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY REMAINING NUISANCE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY MORNING WILL CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ITS ATTENDENT SFC LOW WILL BE FOUND IN THE VCNTY OF THE SOO. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED UP TO THIS POINT AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE AFORMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SWEEP ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A LAKE RESPONSE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT FROM PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES (PRONOUNCED CHANNELLED VORT) TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE BULK OF THIS PERIOD AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PRODUCE A FEED OF CANADIAN ARCTIC AIR ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM (AS PER THE GFS)...ANY SUCH STORM WOULD HAVE A LIMITED IMPACT ON OUR REGION. IN FACT...LOW IMPACT WEATHER CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE ACCUMULATIONS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A FEW AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SPOTTY MVFR VSBY...AND EVEN SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WHERE PRECIP BECOMES ALL SNOW. BY LATE EVENING THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO SPREADS EAST. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE VSBY WILL TREND DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT. EAST OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER EXPECT MVFR VSBY TO BECOME MORE COMMON AFTER ABOUT 03Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBY OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ON TUESDAY IFR VSBY WILL LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MORE PERSISTENT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. MVFR VSBY WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTS IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE...STRONGEST NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG OVER TO KROC. WINDS WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS WILL STILL RUN IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS && .MARINE... WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>004-010>014- 019>021-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006- 008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043- 062-063. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ZAFF NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...ZAFF  FXUS61 KBUF 062039 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH NO SNOW OR ONLY FLURRIES TOWARD THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. MEAGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CAN BE FOUND OVER THE MOST OF NORTH AMERICA WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET LIFTING MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US. THERE ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED JET STREAKS WITHIN THE LARGE JET. THE ONE OF INTEREST FOR THIS EVENING IS CENTERED OVER MO...AND WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WESTERN NY WILL BE ON THE NW FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS EDGING INTO THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH SNOW RANGING BETWEEN NIL OVER NIAGARA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...UP TO 6 INCHES OR SO OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ALLEGANY COUNTY CLOSEST TO BETTER LIFT. A REALLY QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST MODELS...THE 15Z SREF AND LATEST HRRR...SHOWS A DECREASING TREND IN QPF...SO CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS DESPITE A QPF OF ABOUT .3 OR LESS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...WITH LIGHT SNOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...INCREASING IN INTENSITY TO ABOUT AN INCH/HR FOR 2 OR 3 HOURS...THEN TAPERING OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST WILL BEFORE DAWN SATURDAY. JUST TO REITERATE...THE MAJOR METRO AREAS /KBUF-KROC/ ARE EXPECTED TO GET ONLY A GLANCING BLOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AS COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE FLOW WILL BE WNW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...LIMITING OR EVEN ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK STREAMERS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER ANY LOCATION DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE ALOFT LATER AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM ABOUT KFZY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. A SPECIAL 12Z 1.3KM RUN OF THE NAM FIRE WX NESTED RUN ALONG WITH OTHER HIGH RES RUNS SHOW THIS IDEA NICELY...WITH SOME STREAMERS LATE IN THE DAY IN ROUGHLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ANY CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER BY THE END OF THE DAY. IT IS WORTHY OF NOTING THE THE MODIS ESTIMATED LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5C WARMER OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE COMPARED TO THE WESTERN END. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST A BIT MORE LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND EVENTUAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN SHORELINE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A LINGERING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...THESE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY MINIMAL IN SCOPE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 5-6 KFT...AND A RATHER LIMITED SNOW GROWTH REGION/LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE BELOW THE CAPPING INVERSION. DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES AT WORST...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA JUST QUIET...DRY...AND COLD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM 10-15 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GET QUICKLY SQUELCHED DURING THE MORNING THANKS TO A FURTHER LOWERING OF THE CAP AND THE WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ALBEIT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY/S...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30 AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A COMPLEX AND DOUBLE-BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO JAMES BAY...AND A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/ MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CONNECTING SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD HELP FORCE A ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THIS COMING BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...A MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST THE PRECIP STARTING OFF AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ALSO THAT THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...FEEL THAT IT/S BEST TO JUST CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY...THOUGH ONE MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/S LOWS TO COME FAIRLY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN FORCING READINGS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BETWEEN LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE FALLING BACK SOME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BY MONDAY EVENING...OUR AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET EVEN COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER A STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS STATED...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PRODUCE BOTH A FAIRLY LOW CAP OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AND NOTABLE DRYING BELOW THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIMITED IN NATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONFINED POPS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TO THE LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -15C TUESDAY AND TO -18C/-20C BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH A PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE LOOKS TO BECOME MOST FAVORABLE SOMETIME FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE. AT THIS STILL-DISTANT JUNCTURE...DEPICTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT IN TIME REMAINS A HIGHLY DIFFICULT EXERCISE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH... WHICH WILL PRODUCE UNDULATIONS IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT BOTH BAND PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. THIS STATED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING THE MOST NOTEWORTHY OF THESE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A MORE STEADY-STATE WESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AFTER THAT TIME. STAY TUNED! OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING OFF INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...EXPECT THAT READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NY WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN FINGER LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINLY IMPACT AN AREA FROM ABOUT KJHW TO ABOUT OR SOUTH OF KFZY. THEN EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT ON A NW FLOW FOR SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. && .MARINE... EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ONLY A WEAK TO MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014- 019>021-085. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ZAFF NEAR TERM...ZAFF SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...ZAFF MARINE...ZAFF  FXUS61 KBUF 070255 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 955 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH NO SNOW OR ONLY FLURRIES TOWARD THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. MEAGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING AS HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DISPLAY THE NORTHWARD EXTEND OF THE SHIELD OF SNOW NOW REACHING THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO...AND INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THE HEAVIEST OF SNOWFALL IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY...WITH LIGHTER SNOW FARTHER WEST INTO OHIO. WE WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS TO 3-4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND ALSO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND -13C BY MORNING. HERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE GREATER AND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE WNW ALOFT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...LIMITING OR EVEN ELIMINATING ANY CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ERIE. LATER OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE ALOFT LATER AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM ABOUT KFZY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. A SPECIAL 12Z 1.3KM RUN OF THE NAM FIRE WX NESTED RUN ALONG WITH OTHER HIGH RES RUNS SHOW THIS IDEA NICELY...WITH SOME STREAMERS LATE IN THE DAY IN ROUGHLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. ANY CONNECTION TO THE GEORGIAN BAY REMAINS JUST OUT OF REACH AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER BY THE END OF THE DAY. IT IS WORTHY OF NOTING THAT THE MODIS ESTIMATED LAKE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 5C WARMER OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE COMPARED TO THE WESTERN END. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE JUST A BIT MORE LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND EVENTUAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN SHORELINE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A LINGERING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL SUPPORT SOME SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...THESE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY MINIMAL IN SCOPE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 5-6 KFT...AND A RATHER LIMITED SNOW GROWTH REGION/LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE BELOW THE CAPPING INVERSION. DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE SETUP SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW FLURRIES AT WORST...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA JUST QUIET...DRY...AND COLD. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE FROM 10-15 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY...TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. ON SUNDAY...ANY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GET QUICKLY SQUELCHED DURING THE MORNING THANKS TO A FURTHER LOWERING OF THE CAP AND THE WEAKENING/INCREASINGLY SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ALBEIT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN SATURDAY/S...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 30 AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A COMPLEX AND DOUBLE-BARRELED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES... WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO JAMES BAY...AND A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW LIFTING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO JUST OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. WHILE ALL GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING/ MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS...THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CONNECTING SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD HELP FORCE A ROUND OF MUCH LIGHTER BUT STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THIS COMING BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A SURGE OF DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...A MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND PLAN VIEWS SUGGEST THE PRECIP STARTING OFF AS ALL SNOW SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND THEN TO RAIN OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS WARM ADVECTION CAUSES THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND ALSO THAT THE WINDOW FOR FREEZING PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RATHER BRIEF...FEEL THAT IT/S BEST TO JUST CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THIS POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HWO AND HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY...THOUGH ONE MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT SUNDAY NIGHT/S LOWS TO COME FAIRLY EARLY IN THE NIGHT...WITH STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN FORCING READINGS TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HIGHS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 BETWEEN LATE MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE FALLING BACK SOME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BY MONDAY EVENING...OUR AIRMASS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE TO GET EVEN COLDER THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER A STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THIS STATED...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WILL BE SIMULTANEOUSLY BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WILL PRODUCE BOTH A FAIRLY LOW CAP OF AROUND 4-5 KFT AND NOTABLE DRYING BELOW THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIMITED IN NATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CONFINED POPS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TO THE LOW-MID CHANCE RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING MAINLY DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BACK TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM HUDSON BAY TO NORTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND -15C TUESDAY AND TO -18C/-20C BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH A PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE LOOKS TO BECOME MOST FAVORABLE SOMETIME FROM LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPTICK IN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE. AT THIS STILL-DISTANT JUNCTURE...DEPICTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS AT ANY GIVEN POINT IN TIME REMAINS A HIGHLY DIFFICULT EXERCISE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH... WHICH WILL PRODUCE UNDULATIONS IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW THAT SUBSEQUENTLY AFFECT BOTH BAND PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY. THIS STATED...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING THE MOST NOTEWORTHY OF THESE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION BETWEEN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A MORE STEADY-STATE WESTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP AFTER THAT TIME. STAY TUNED! OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...THE PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY AND COLDER WEATHER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SETTLING INTO THE LOWER-MID 20S FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING OFF INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT...EXPECT THAT READINGS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE TAF CYCLE...HOWEVER EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DROP TO IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE COMING HOURS. LIGHT...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT...WHILE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE STORM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BRUSH BY THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC AIRFIELDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE SHIELD OF SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE KART AIRFIELD. THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND LIKELY TO THE EAST OF ROCHESTER AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE 5 TAF SITES EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. THESE WINDS AT TIMES MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND NEIGHBORING TAF SITES JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SNOW AND RAIN LIKELY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. && .MARINE... NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WAVES THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AS WINDS BECOME NEAR 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WAVES WILL CREST OVER 4 FEET...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AND REMAINING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ERIE. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012>014- 019>021-085. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-044. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ZAFF NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...THOMAS MARINE...THOMAS/ZAFF  FXUS61 KBUF 260905 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 405 AM EST WED FEB 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BEHIND AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN FORM TODAY AS A COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO DRIVES LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE SNOW BAND WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEK WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL FORM FROM TIME TO TIME OSCILLATING DOWNING OF LAKE ONTARIO. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG A COLD FRONT...WITH THIS BATCH OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY DOWN THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL LAKES. FOR THIS MORNING EXPECT THE SNOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS A WESTERLY WIND ALIGNS AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIALLY START THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION...THEN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY AND PUSH THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND SOUTHWARD...LARGELY ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY CLIP NE WAYNE COUNTY AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY LIGHT HOURS...FOR WHICH THE LATTER COUNTY WILL HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY TODAY AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HERE AS WELL. LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS REMAIN EXCELLENT AND SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR UNDER THIS BAND OF SNOW TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA LOWER TO AROUND -25C WHICH WILL CREATE EXTREME LAKE INSTABILITY. WITHIN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO OVER 10K FEET WITH DEEP MOISTURE FOUND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND UP THROUGH 6-8K FEET. THOUGH WE ARE GETTING TOWARDS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN DIURNAL EFFECTS COULD BRING THE BAND TO MORE OF A CELLULAR LOOK...LAND CAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO REMAIN STEADY. OUTSIDE OF THIS LAKE EFFECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOW CHANCES POPS...BUT HIGHER CHANCES POPS ACROSS THE HILLS FOR TODAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL FADE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE HILLS OF SW NYS WHERE LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS EVENING. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK WHICH WILL LIFT THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND BACK NORTHWARD. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL FALL SOME...DOWN TO AROUND 7-8K FEET AND WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND WITH A SLIGHT DEPLETION IN THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE SHOULD SEE A MINOR WEAKENING TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. THAT SAID WE COULD STILL SEE 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW FALL RATES AS THIS BAND LIFTS NORTHWARD WHICH WILL REQUIRE A REVISIT TO ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND ONLY RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO ABOUT THEIR INITIAL EARLY MORNING READINGS. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND LOCALLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A SOUTHWEST WIND COMBINED WITH THE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN CLOSE TO THE -15F ADVISORY LEVEL THRESHOLD SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TWO MAIN FEATURES...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE AND A CONSPICUOUSLY OUT OF PLACE POLAR VORTEX PARKED OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARDS TO THE LOWER 48. THIS UNUSUALLY PERSISTENT +PNA PATTERN HAS BEEN DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THIS WINTER AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST LATE FEBRUARY WEATHER THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN DECADES. MORE ON THAT IN MOMENT. THE COLD WEATHER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE CASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT FIRST THE REGION WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWS FROM A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM. A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT CLIPPER SFC LOW TRACKING BY TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE LOW WILL SWEEP YET ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID AIR TO FOLLOW. THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A BURST OF SNOW ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AVERAGING 2 INCHES OR LESS. AS THE CLIPPER EXITS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON...THE TABLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SET FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE RECENT EVENTS THOUGH...SO THIS SHOULD WORK AGAINST SNOW ACCUMS OFF LAKE ERIE... WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY EFFICIENT OF LATE IN PRODUCING SNOW OFF A NEARLY COMPLETELY ICE COVERED LAKE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL GO WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS FOR SITES SOUTHEAST OF LK ERIE FOR THE THURS AFTERNOON. FOR LAKE ONTARIO...THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL VEER FROM ABOUT 250 AT MIDDAY TO 290 BY EVENING. THE ENSUING LAKE RESPONSE WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS NORTH OF THE TUG HILL THAT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE PRIMED OFF GEORGIAN BAY...WHICH ACCORDING TO TUESDAYS MODIS IMAGERY IS SURPRISINGLY 50 PERCENT 'OPEN'. WHILE DIURNAL PROCESSES WILL LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE BAND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE CAP WILL BE RATHER HIGH AT ABOUT 13K FT. WHILE THERE IS ALREADY A LES WARNING IN EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO...HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO HOIST A LES WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. ALONG WITH THE SYNOPTIC AND LAKE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY... IT WILL WINDY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VSBYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS PROMOTING FACE NUMBING WIND CHILLS AVERAGING 10 BELOW ZERO. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MERCURY DROPPING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO (MOST AREAS BELOW ZERO). WHILE THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLACKEN WITH THE REDUCED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS HAZARD WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO PRODUCT...AND IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. IN REGARDS TO THE LAKE EFFECT...A BAND OF LAKE SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OSWEGO COUNTY AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ON FRIDAY...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WEAKENING LAKE SNOWS WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE TUG HILL. THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE ABOUT THIS LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY IS THAT IT WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. IN FACT...THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS AT BUF AND ROC WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD LOW MAX TEMP RECORDS (11 BUF/12 ROC)...ESTABLISHED WAY BACK IN 1875. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID WESTERN STATES. THE RESULTING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KILL OFF THE RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL SO THAT THE BULK OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PCPN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. AN AREA OF ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE INVERTED SATURDAY MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM NORTH OF LAKE HURON TO CENTRAL QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL... THIS FIRST DAY OF MARCH WILL FEEL MORE TOLERABLE AS THE MERCURY WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 20S AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GENESEE VALLEY AND SOME OF THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER MAY EVEN BREAK THE 30 DEGREE MARK. THESE READINGS WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEG F HIGHER THAN THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS. SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADY SNOW WILL THEN BE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE ANABATIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL INCREASE CHC POPS IN CONTINUITY TO LIKELY WITH THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WHILE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD...A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL EXTEND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE RESULTING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE ALSO ALLOWING A LITTLE MODIFICATION OF OUR AIRMASS. DO NOT BE FOOLED INTO THINKING THAT WE SEE SIGNIFICANT WARMING THOUGH. DAILY TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY MARCH VALUES...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE. THE SWATH OF STEADY SNOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH ONLY NEGLIGIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WINTER STORM THAT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WHILE WE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME STEADY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM (ESP SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES) SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR OUR REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ALSO RE-INTENSIFY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT NEAR KART...THEN MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH TO OSWEGO COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL IFR. THE LAKE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL IFR EAST OF THE LAKE... ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KART AND NORTH OF KSYR. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR. CIGS WILL BE MVFR MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER PLUMES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...AND LOCALIZED IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. && .MARINE... A CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY OVER BOTH LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO. GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 9 FEET WILL BE FOUND ON THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE WITH THE WESTERLY WIND. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WIND IS LIKELY TO COME THURSDAY WHEN A STRONGER CLIPPER PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW END GALES ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006-008. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ006. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ005-008. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEZ040-041. GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LOZ042-043-062-063. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065. GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR LOZ044-045-064-065. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042- 043. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ044- 045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...THOMAS NEAR TERM...THOMAS SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...HITCHCOCK MARINE...THOMAS  FXUS61 KBUF 240905 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 405 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD THE 20 DEGREE MARK TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A SHARP SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LARGER MEAN TROUGH OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL DIG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND WILL ARRIVE ON WESTERN NEW YORKS DOOR STEP BY THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO PUSH NEAR THE 20 DEGREE MARK BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION / LIFT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL HELP THE WINDS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL GUSTY POTENTIAL. THUS USING THE MIXED WINDS AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE WIND GUST FORECAST...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE GUSTS BY 10 TO 15 PERCENT. THIS LARGELY GIVES GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN LAKES AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THESE WINDS INCREASE...SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE TOP LAYER OF SNOW REMAINS LOOSELY PACKED. ALSO BY THIS EVENING...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND THE TUG HILL REGION WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES LIKELY THERE. SOME DOWNSLOPING INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP TO LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH GENERALLY A COATING TO AN INCH LIKELY THERE. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH WINDS CONTINUING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE FRESH LAYER OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING. BEHIND THE CLIPPER AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A DECENT AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT THE LATEST MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN ICE COVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER LAKE RESPONSE. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PEAK AROUND 10K FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE TIME OF THE ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE...THEN LOWER TO AROUND 5K FEET BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN PERSISTENT BANDS EAST OF THE LAKE. HAVE INITIALLY GONE WITH AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TUG HILL FOR WEDNESDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AS CONFIDENCE GROWS ON PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. THE WESTERN END OF THE BAND MAY ALSO BRUSH THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE FROM EASTERN NIAGARA TO NORTHWEST MONROE COUNTIES WITH AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL FORCE TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING THE DAY...WITH TEENS IN THE MORNING DROPPING TO SINGLE NUMBERS BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH. THIS WILL PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE WITH SNOW WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS FETCH SHORTENS...INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AND LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DRY. ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE TYPICAL AREAS FROM NEAR IRONDEQUOIT BAY EAST TO OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND PA/NY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AND MAY EVEN PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH. THE COLD CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FREE FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE WEATHER WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND EVEN SOME SUNSHINE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH MAY ALLOW AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH SINGLE NUMBERS TO LOWER TEENS. THERE WILL BE SOME MODERATION ON SATURDAY...BUT A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY RESULT IN A STRUGGLE TO WARM THE SURFACE DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT MANY AREAS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS SATURDAY. THE PATTERN GROWS MORE COMPLEX AND INTERESTING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SEND TWO SHORTWAVES TO THE EAST. THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL CAPTURE SOME PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE DURING ITS TRIP ACROSS THE NATION...WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER WILL PROVIDE A FRESH SUPPLY OF COLD AIR. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION AND PHASING BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES...RESULTING IN A WIDE SWATH OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. THE LATEST 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED COLDER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND ARE NOW COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS THIS SYSTEM HAS TO WORK WITH...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE SAME BASIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WAVY BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE MID ATLANTIC. ANOTHER WAVE MAY MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP STAYING ALL SNOW AGAIN...AND THIS IS A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE DOMINANCE OF COLD AIR RIGHT NOW ACROSS THE CONUS. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. KART WILL BE THE ONLY EXCEPTION THIS MORNING AS A WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KIAG/KBUF. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THE LONGEST AT KJHW AS UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITHIN AND AFTER THE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... THE FOCUS TODAY TURNS TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 TO 35 KNOTS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CANCELED THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR OPEN WATER PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS REMAIN LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING SPRAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES. && .CLIMATE... ---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO 1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950. STATION: VALUE (F) MONTH (YEAR) BUFFALO 11.6 FEB (1934) 13.4 FEB (1875) 13.8 JAN (1977) 14.1 JAN (1918) 14.6 FEB (1885) 14.9 FEB (1979) 15.5 FEB (1978) 15.6 JAN (1920) 15.6 JAN (1912) 16.2 JAN (1945) ROCHESTER 12.6 FEB (1934) 13.7 FEB (1979) 14.4 FEB (1875) 14.5 FEB (1885) 14.8 JAN (1918) 14.9 JAN (1994) 15.2 JAN (1945) 15.5 JAN (1977) 15.7 JAN (1981) 16.1 JAN (1920) WATERTOWN 6.4 DEC (1989) 6.5 JAN (1970) 6.9 JAN (1994) 7.9 FEB (1978) 8.0 JAN (1981) 8.1 JAN (2004) 8.4 FEB (1979) 10.0 JAN (2003) 10.1 JAN (1977) 10.3 JAN (1961) CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE PRODUCT. ---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY'S ON RECORD. SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884. STATION: SNOW (IN) YEAR BUFFALO 1 54.2 1958 2 49.5 1960 3 44.3 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21) ROCHESTER 1 64.8 1958 2 58.3 1960 3 46.5 2007 4 42.7 1910 5 41.7 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21) ---IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978. ---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 7 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO... NUMBER YEAR 10 1979 8 1934 7 1963 7 1875 7 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21) THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN 1884-85. ---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 14 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO... NUMBER YEAR 16 1978 15 1993 15 1979 14 2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/21) && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ001>008- 010-011-013-014. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ012- 019>021-085. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LOZ042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CHURCH NEAR TERM...CHURCH SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...CHURCH MARINE...CHURCH CLIMATE...THOMAS  FXUS61 KBUF 151934 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 234 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will cross the region tonight and tomorrow, spreading light snow across the Eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain just below normal mid-week, with some limited lake effect snow to the southeast and east of the Great Lakes. Temperatures will begin to moderate to start next weekend, warming above normal by the end of next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... This afternoon an area of low pressure is nearing the Central Great Lakes, while arctic high pressure departs over southern Quebec. A southerly wind and warm air advection aloft has allowed for surface temperatures to moderate from the weekend cold with many places now into the lower 20s. For this late afternoon and evening light snow will spread across WNY. Isentropic upglide will be weak, and convergence will diminish around a weakening surface low...though with a nearing upper level shortwave there will be ample lift for light snow to develop. As such, and with an arctic source region to this system's moisture, snowfall rates will be minimal...generally on the order of just a few tenths of an inch per hour. Light snow is expected to spread east of Lake Ontario after midnight. The southerly winds may bring some downsloping effects, limiting overall snow across the Lake Plain and Genesee Valley, while some of the hills of SW NYS and the southern Tug Hill may have orographic upslope enhancement. Overall snow tonight and tomorrow will range from 1 to 4 inches. Greatest totals will be SW NYS, and the southern Tug Hill...while areas closer to the southern Lake Ontario shoreline and the Genesee Valley will struggle to accumulate more than an inch. Within the cold airmass snow is expected to be dry...and flake size may remain small. Tomorrow morning drying in the mid levels will end snow from west to east. As the weakening surface low hangs up over Central New York, light synoptic snow may linger well into the afternoon hours east of Lake Ontario. Aloft temperatures at 850 hpa will lower to around -12 to -14C. Some limited lake effect snow may develop on a southwest to westerly flow late tomorrow...though weak instability and still a fair amount of wind shear should not result in any significant bands. Temperatures will not lower much tonight, and may increase a tick or two as clouds thicken tonight. Lows will range through the teens to lower 20s. Coldest spots will be interior locations east of Lake Ontario where cirrus may remain thin enough this evening to allow for overnight lows in the upper single digits. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 20s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday evening the last of the synoptic snow will be exiting the eastern portion of the area as a weak baroclinic leaf develops over eastern PA and eastern NY, marking a weak wave along the frontal boundary. Otherwise our attention turns back to the mesoscale, as a relatively muted lake response begins. Lake induced equilibrium levels will start Tuesday evening only around 5K feet, but then improve to around 7K feet late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Off Lake Erie... Obviously ice cover will be a major limiting factor with the majority of the lake ice covered. Recent satellite images do show a substantial area of open water between Dunkirk and Long Point, and the ice west of that is not fast ice, with numerous leads and thin spots apparent in MODIS imagery from yesterday. With this in mind, there is still enough open water to provide some limited lake response, and frictional convergence is always present with or without ice. Expect the most concentrated area of snow showers to be found from Southern Erie and western Wyoming counties into the western Southern Tier Tuesday night and Wednesday, with peak organization coming late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning. There may also be a few snow showers reaching the Buffalo Metro area at times, as a weak band will often form from just east of Long Point and hugs the northern shore into Buffalo when ice is present on the lake, which alters where convergence sets up. Accumulations will be limited to 1- 2 inches Tuesday night, and another inch or so Wednesday. A few flurries or light snow showers may linger into Wednesday night near Buffalo, with little or no additional accumulation. Off Lake Ontario... Weak flow will initially keep much of the lake effect snow over the lake Tuesday evening, although the eastern end may move onshore in Oswego County. Later Tuesday night WSW flow becomes better established across the lake, with lake effect snow showers increasing across southern Jefferson County and the Tug Hill. This band will settle south across Oswego County early Wednesday morning as boundary layer flow veers briefly to west, and then heads back north across the Tug Hill to Jefferson County again on Wednesday as flow backs to the southwest. The movement of the band and shallow inversion heights will keep accumulations in check, with 1 to 3 inches Tuesday night and another 2 to 3 inches Wednesday in persistent bands. This should keep amounts a little under advisory criteria. What remains of the lake effect will diminish to scattered snow showers Wednesday night and Thursday, although may not end completely with marginal lake induced instability remaining. Any additional accumulations should be minimal. Outside of lake effect areas, Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly dry for the rest of the region with variable amounts of clouds. Expect highs Wednesday to be in the low to mid 20s in most areas, with upper teens across the higher terrain. By Thursday highs will recover into the mid to upper 20s. Thursday night and Friday morning a fast moving and rather sharp mid level trough will pass over or just north of Lake Ontario. This system will bring an increase in clouds to much of the region, and also provide a little better environment for lake effect snow again east of Lake Ontario. This may produce some additional minor accumulations centered on the Tug Hill region. This system will move out quickly on Friday with any snow ending east of Lake Ontario. Temperatures will continue their slow rise, with highs in the mid 30s by Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Zonal flow is expected through much of the weekend and southerly flow will allow temperatures to climb into the 40s and potentially 50s by Sunday. A deep trough is expected across the Rockies Sunday while ridging occurs across the east. A Colorado low is expected to form Sunday-Monday and track northeastward into the Great Lakes early next week. This will bring the chance of rain and snow showers. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An area of low pressure nearing the Central Great Lakes region this afternoon will spread a period of light snow across the TAF sites...mainly between 23Z tonight and 12Z tomorrow. Snow may linger through about 15Z east of Lake Ontario...including the KART airfield. Visibilities will diminish to IFR within the snow, with ceilings lowering to MVFR. Winds will remain generally light within the snow, with southeast flow this afternoon veering to southwesterly by TAF closure behind the storm system. Outlook... Monday night...Light snow with areas of IFR. Tuesday through Friday...A chance of snow showers with spotty MVFR to IFR, especially east of the lakes with local lake effect snow. Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Southeast winds today will veer to southwest and eventually westerly tomorrow as a weakening area of low pressure cross the Eastern Great Lakes region. Cooler air will build across the lakes mid-week...such that CAA and westerly flow will bring waves over 4 feet Wednesday...with small craft advisories becoming likely. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...THOMAS NEAR TERM...THOMAS SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...THOMAS MARINE...THOMAS