FXAK67 PAJK 291344 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 545 AM AKDT THU AUG 29 2013 .SHORT TERM...FOG IS ONCE AGAIN A PLAYER IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING THOUGH IT IS NOT AS WIDE SPREAD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY MORNING. IMAGES FROM MODIS AND NPP SHOW SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND GLACIER BAY, YAKUTAT BAY, AND HAINES. THE DENSEST FOG THIS MORNING IS AROUND YAKUTAT WHERE VISIBILITIES OF A HALF MILE OR LESS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THOUGH THE OBSERVER THERE REPORTS THAT THE FOG IS ONLY A FEW HUNDRED FEET THICK VERTICALLY. DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR YAKUTAT UNTIL 8 AM THROUGH THE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT LAST LONG WITH HOW SHALLOW THE FOG IS. SOME VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW FOG HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT PETERSBURG, AND JUNEAU THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. SKIES, WHERE THE FOG DOES NOT OBSCURE IT, ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE EXCEPTION IS HAINES AND SKAGWAY WHERE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LAYER OF CLOUDS STILL LINGERS FROM THE WEAK FRONT FROM YESTERDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AS THE FIRST OF A FEW SHORT WAVES MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. NO PRECIP HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM THESE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE YET BUT SOME CANADIAN OBS FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REPORTED SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO MOST AREAS. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL MAINLY BE CONFOUNDED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IF IT DOES RAIN AT ALL. AS SUCH HAVE MAINLY CHANCE POPS UP FOR THOSE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS FARTHER NORTH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE ANY RAIN AS THE SE FLOW WITH A SLIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO IT WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO DROP WHATEVER MOISTURE THEY HAVE ON THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THERE STILL MIGHT BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING FOR IT TO FORM. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM OVER THE PANHANDLE AS MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KT. THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF ARE A DIFFERENT STORY. THERE A STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL CAUSE SOME SE WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF TODAY. WITH THE LOW DIVING TO THE SE TONIGHT THOSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CALM DOWN OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS TODAY WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THOUGH IT LOOKED LIKE NAM AND GFS HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT FEATURES. DECIDED ON UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE GFS AND A BIT OF NAM. && .LONG TERM...ALL 29/00Z OPS MODELS INSIST ON SPLIT FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS A RELATIVELY STRONG PLANETARY SCALE UPR LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE SE TO ARRIVE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT WILL BE WESTERLIES ALONG 60N OR SO WHICH OPENS THE WAY FOR UPR SHORTWAVES AND SOME WET. THIS PATTERN WAS ACCEPTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT AND CONTINUED IN THIS MORNINGS FORECASTS. THIS PATTERN KEEPS REAL WIND MAKERS AWAY...BUT DOES ALLOW FOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION SAT & SAT NITE DUE TO A VERY LONG FETCH FROM THE WSW. NEW MODEL RUNS TAKE UNTIL 12Z MONDAY TO BUILD A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER RIDGE INTO 140W BUT THIS WILL BE A DIRTY RIDGE - ONE WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SO FORECASTS IN THE LONGER RANGE REMAIN UNCHANGED. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT DAILY ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO PUSH BACK THE TIMING ON THE EVENTUAL SET UP FOR A MODERATE STRENGTH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR A WETTER REGIME. CONFIDENCE MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY THEN LOOK FOR TIMING ADJUSTS...MOST LIKELY A DELAY ON SW FLOW ALOFT IF A STORM IN THE BERING IS DEEPER ON TUE THAN PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. THAT STORM WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR AND ITS EARLY FOR THAT. KEEP WATCHING FOR OLD TYPHOON REMNANTS TO GET INTO OUR FLOW. SAT & SAT NITE WILL BE A TASTE OF SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING INTO THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ZONE ADVISORY ZONE 17. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ052. && $$ EAL/JC  FXAK67 PAJK 031351 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 551 AM AKDT TUE SEP 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...TWO STORIES FOR THIS SHIFT, THE SURFACE RIDGE FIRMLY PLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND INTERIOR PANHANDLE ALLOWING THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER TO SATURATE INTO RADIATIONAL FOG. THIS OCCURRED SOMEWHAT LATER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE METEOROLOGY ASSOCIATED WITH FOG SEEMED SOUND OVER THE SOUTH WITH NE'ER A CLOUD IN THE SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT MILES AWAY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS MODIS-VIIRS MICROPHYSICS IMAGE AND AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS WERE CLEARLY INDICATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WERE A TOUGHER CALL. THE ORIGINAL FEELING THAT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE AREA AND HIGHER CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SURFACE RADIATION. YET WITH STILL SOME MOISTURE IN THE AIR CONTRIBUTED FROM A LOW TIDE SITUATION AS WELL AS RESIDUAL LEFT ON THE GROUND FROM THIS WEEKEND'S RAIN TOTALS, AND AN APPARENT MORE BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU ABOVE, AREAS NEAR JUNEAU, WRANGELL, PETERSBURG, AND POSSIBLY KAKE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DENSE FOG. AN EXPANDED AREA OF DENSE FOG WAS JUST ISSUED TO COVER THESE AREAS THROUGH 10 AM. STILL INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES, AS THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST AND SOUTH. THE SECOND STORY IS THE APPROACHING FRONT MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. YAKUTAT IS ALREADY RAINING AND THEIR WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO COME UP FROM THE EAST. WINDS AT BUOY 82 ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE AND THESE WINDS WILL STRETCH INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE WEAKENING TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON. YAKUTAT BAY WILL ALSO GO TO SMALL CRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HEALTHY WIND SHEAR AT 2000 FEET WITH THIS FRONT LASTING ALMOST 12 HOURS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING A WALL OF RAIN TO REACH YAKUTAT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY WITH AN ADDITION INCH OR INCH AND A HALF TONIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. TIMING SKETCHY, BUT FEEL MOST LIKELY IT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR JUNEAU AND NORTHERN BARANOF ISLAND...BEGINNING EARLIER FROM SKAGWAY DOWN TO CROSS SOUND. REGARDING INSIDE WATER WINDS, DID GO SMALL CRAFT LATE TONIGHT FOR CROSS SOUND AND FEEL NORTHERN LYNN WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SWINGS IN FROM THE WEST AND LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE YUKON. MODELS OF CHOICE WAS ECMWF/GFS WITH SREF USED FOR POP FIELDS. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HIGHER THAN AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...MAIN FOCUS FOR LONGER RANGE WAS THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM MOVING N INTO THE GULF. MODELS AGREE IN GENERAL THAT A LOW WILL TRACK N TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. FLOW ALOFT LOOKS SLY AND UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE FURTHER W THAN IT WILL BE WITH THE MIDWEEK FRONT...SO THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST. MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE WINDS FOR FRI-FRI NIGHT PERIODS OVER THE GULF. USED BLEND OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR WED-FRI NIGHT...THEN BASICALLY KEPT IN OR ADJUSTED TO WPC FOR SAT ONWARD...DEPENDING ON WHAT WAS THERE PREVIOUSLY. FIRST FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST LATE WED...THEN STALL THERE WHILE WEAKENING. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THU AFTERNOON. ONE TRICKY ASPECT WITH THIS FRONT IS HOW FAST PRECIP AHEAD OF IT DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. THE MODEL BLEND WAS A MIDDLE GROUND COMPROMISE ON THIS...DIMINISHING THE PRECIP DURING THE DAY THU. PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NE GULF COAST WED MORNING...BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP GOING INTO WED NIGHT. THE FAR SERN AREA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...MAINLY FROM PAKT/PANT EWD WED INTO THU. LYNN CANAL WILL SEE THE MOST WIND OUT OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GALES EXPECTED OVER NRN LYNN CANAL WED AFTERNOON. PAGY MAY NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR WED INTO WED EVENING AS WELL...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS THAT IS A 3RD-4TH PERIOD EVENT. LOOKS LIKE GALES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE GULF FOR FRI AS NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS IN. ENDED UP LOWERING SEAS FROM INITIAL GUIDANCE FROM AKWAVE AND OUTSIDE WATERS TOOL AS WFO PAFC DID NOT WANT TO JUMP THE SEAS UP AS MUCH AS I HAD INITIALLY...UP TO 20-22 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE HANDLING SYSTEM LIKE THEY ARE...LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RAISE SEAS DUE TO THE FAIRLY LONG SLY FETCH. AFTER SAT MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT SO GOING THE WPC ROUTE WAS THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR NOW. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ025>029. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-022-042-043-051-053. && $$ JWA/RWT  FXAK67 PAJK 151412 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 612 AM AKDT TUE OCT 15 2013 .SHORT TERM...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG WITH THE DEPARTING FRONT OVER CANADA. THERE IS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR WESTERN POW AND OVER THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS OUT UNTIL 9 AM. THERE IS SOME FOG OVER THE AREA AS SEEN BY MODIS- VIIRS NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY BUT IT IS NOT REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE AT THIS TIME. THE FOG MAY BE THICKER IN PLACES THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND AREAS ALSO AS THE SUN RISES THE FOG MAY THICKEN UP. SO DID NOT CHANGE THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS WILL WAIT TO SEE SOME VISUAL CONFIRMATION THEN DECIDE IF TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY. THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK ARE SEEING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED FROM A WEAK UPPER TROF THAT WILL MOVE INTO CANADA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SEE THE SHOWERS INCREASE THROUGH TODAY FROM THE WEST BUT THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE PRECIP RETREATS TO THE WEST. A UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF AND PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER AND MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE CLOUDS WILL THIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST AREA OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIVE COOLING. THE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH THIS MORNING AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE IS SOME INCREASED WINDS NEAR SKAGWAY BUT BY TONIGHT THEY TOO WILL DIMINISH. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MARINE AREAS FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. LYNN CANAL CONTINUES TO BLOW MIN SMALL CRAFT FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH 15 KT OVER SOUTHERN LYNN. THESE WINDS WILL VERY SLOW DECREASE THIS EVENING TO 15 KT OVER NORTHERN LYNN AND TO 10 KT OVER SOUTHERN LYNN. OVERALL THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAT THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. USED A BLEND OF THE EC AND NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. .LONG TERM...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA MIDWEEK, THEN NUDGING TO THE EAST AS A SOUTHERN BERING SEA LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE IS EXITS INTO WESTERN CANADA, MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGEST ISSUES FOR TONIGHT'S SHIFT WAS FOG PLACEMENT AND SKY COVER. SURE, WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH COMPLEX TERRAIN UNDERNEATH A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALWAYS BE A CHALLENGE. ASIDE FROM LYNN CANAL AND CLARENCE STRAIT, MOST PLACES WILL ENJOY LIGHT WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. A GREAT DAY TO SAIL. A THERMAL TROUGH BACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP MOST SPOTS NORTH AND WEST HERE, WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS MAINLY SOUTHERLY WITH WINDS BLOWING AWAY FROM THE RIDGE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM LAST NIGHT'S FRONT EXITING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO BC, EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE, AS WELL AS A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AND THUS CLEARING SKIES, WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND YES, EVEN THURSDAY MORNING ARE GOOD SET-UPS FOR FOG OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. KEPT MUCH OF THE IDEAS OF LAST SHIFT, ALTHOUGH REMOVED YAKUTAT AS GUIDANCE NOT HINTING AT IT HERE. IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT-TERM, DID INTRODUCE SOME FOG FORMATION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF/WHEN THIS FORMS WHETHER THIS FOG EVENTUALLY REACHES ELFIN COVE, SITKA, AND CRAIG. AT THIS POINT, DO BRING THE MARINE STRATUS ONSHROE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT CHOSE NOT TO CARRY FOG AS THIS FOG LAYER HAS YET TO DEVELOP. THE AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. DID USE GEM AS A CLOUD COVER GUIDE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF THE MODELS IS NOT GREAT. KEPT NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT PARTLY CLOUDY GIVEN THE RISK OF CLOUDS INVADING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER, DID LOWER TEMPERATURES TO FREEZING IN THE MENDENHALL VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING AND TO UPPER 30S DOWNTOWN JUNEAU/DOUGLAS. OTHER SPOTS WILL FLIRT/REACH THE FREEZING POINT: YAKUTAT, GUSTAVUS, HAINES CUSTOMS, HOONAH IN PARTICULAR. AS THE DATE GETS CLOSER AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS COME IN, THE HOPE IS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS. ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER WET WEEKEND. RAIN IN YAKUTAT IS DEFINITE FOR FRIDAY, AND CONFIDENCE MOUNTING FOR RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY, BUT KEPT LIKELY WORDING FOR NOW. LIKE THE LAST FRONT, THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION, SO QPF WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. GIVEN THE DRY MID WEEK, RIVERS SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO LOWER BEFORE THIS NEXT ROUND. KEPT GFS/ECMWF/WPC INFLUENCED FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL PATTERN GOOD. LESS SO ON THE DETAILS. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ026-027. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ052. && $$ ABJ/JWA  FXAK67 PAJK 171407 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 607 AM AKDT THU OCT 17 2013 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY, RIDING UP OVER THE TOP AND ONCE IT DOES WILL FLATTEN IT AND CAUSE SKIES TO BE A LITTLE DIRTIER AS WE SAY IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE. DESPITE THIS, WE STILL ARE FORECASTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH...EMPHASIZING MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN, BUT THINK FOLKS WILL SEE THEIR SHADOWS AT SOME TIME TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SHADOWS MAY BE LESS EASILY SEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN. THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT FOR SURE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DIRECTS MORE SOLID MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. YAKUTAT WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE CLEARING TODAY AND EVEN AS THE MID- LEVEL STRATUS BREAKS UP THIS MORNING, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ALOFT AND BECOME LADEN WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM PELICAN EAST TO GUSTAVUS AND NORTH TO HAINES WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF TONIGHT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS OVER YAKUTAT BAY AS WELL AS CROSS SOUND LATE. THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, LEE-SIDE TROUGHING IN THE YUKON WILL KEEP WINDS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND SKAGWAY. NAM IS DISAGREEING WITH THE ECMWF ON THIS ONE. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THE LIGHT NORTHERLIES THIS MORNING OVER THE CANAL...HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE ECMWF WHILE LOOKING AT THIS TIME PERIOD THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND AM STICKING TO MY FORECAST OF A SLOW RISE IN WINDS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF LYNN CANAL, WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLIES BUILDING TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FOG IS ANOTHER ISSUE. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND WRANGELL AND PETERSBURG, AND THUS A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM. GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLES...FOG WILL LIKELY TAKE ITS TIME TO DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER, BUT THE HOPE IS BY NOON. FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF JUNEAU, BUT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE, THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE LESS OF AN ISSUE, AND DOUBT ANY WILL BE DENSE. THE SPORT MODIS-VIIRS NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGE HAS PROVIDED EXCELLENT IMAGES DEPICTING THE LOCATION OF FOG...IN LOCAL DRAINAGE AREAS LIKE THE CHILKAT VALLEY TO THE BACKSIDE OF DOUGLAS AND SOUTH TO EASTERN FREDERICK SOUND. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE, OTHER THAN COOLING THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR TONIGHT TO NEAR 40...FEEL THAT THEY WILL HAVE ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL LIKED THE NAM FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS BUT USING MORE ECMWF FOR TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PANHANDLE FRI MORNING, AND THE SECOND ON SATURDAY. THE LARGEST CHANGES TO THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE DUE TO RAISING THE POPS AND QPF FOR THE FIRST FRONT. AT 12Z FRI A 500H TROUGH ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM OVER KODIAK AND TO THE ESE MOST OF THE WAY ACROSS THE GULF. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND REACH THE PANHANDLE FRI MORNING. THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A SPLIT IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CHAIN, WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH THAT FLOWS NNE THROUGH THE TROUGH ALOFT. THE FIRST OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 200 NM OFFSHORE OF A YAKUTAT-SITKA LINE AT 12Z FRI. THE LANDFALL OF THIS SYSTEM DURING DAYTIME FRIDAY HAS BEEN GIVEN RAISED POP AND QPF VALUES. YAKUTAT IS FORECAST TO HAVE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES FRI. POPS WERE RAISED 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE EXCEPT ZONES 28 AND 29. THE CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED BY A LARGE-SCALE LOW IN THE NW PACIFIC THAT HAS A STRONG TROPICAL ORIGIN. A LOOP OF THE GOES IR ON A PACIFIC MERCATOR PROJECTION HAS BEEN USEFUL FOR SEEING THE RAPID TRANSITION FROM A TYPHOON THAT WAS ABOUT 600 NM S OF JAPAN ON TUE, TO A NEW LOW THAT WAS ROUGHLY 600 NM SW OF SHEMYA ABOUT 06Z THU. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR THE LOW TO DEEPEN TO ABOUT 962 MB IN THE VICINITY OF SHEMYA AT 00Z FRI. THIS LARGE AND DEEP SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP THE SECOND OCCLUSION, AND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS THE YAKUTAT TO SITKA LINE ABOUT 21Z SAT. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ026. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ052. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ043-051. && $$ JWA/JBT  FXAK67 PAJK 051426 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 526 AM AKST THU DEC 5 2013 .SHORT TERM...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE GULF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE YUKON THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO WEST CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA BY TONIGHT. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS. THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY GRADIENT RESULTED IN A RAPID INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL OVERNIGHT. AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING THE STRONG NORTHERLIES ARE PUSHING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE SKAGWAY AND HAINES AREAS. 30 TO 35 KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW IN THE JUNEAU AREA WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS DOWNTOWN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL THAT WE WILL SEE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 MPH BUT DO FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY SO KEPT THE INHERITED STRONG WIND HEADLINE. AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WIND INCREASING THROUGH THE CENTRAL INNER CHANNELS. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS CAUSING SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE HAINES AIRPORT HAS BEEN RISING INTO THE LOW 30S WHEN THE WIND GETS GUSTY AND THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 20S AS THE WIND LIGHTENS UP. SAME HAS BEEN THE CASE IN JUNEAU WHERE TEMPERATURES DOWNTOWN HAVE JUMPED FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE FLUCTUATIONS SHOULD LESSEN THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS HAS CAUSED FOR SOME WIDE RANGES IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN SOME ZONES. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS LOWS TONIGHT WILL HAVE WIDE RANGES WITH WIND SHELTERED AREAS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN MORNING OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY MODIS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY AND APPEARS VERY LOCALIZED. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS SHARPENED AND TURNED FLOW MORE NORTHERLY INSTEAD OF THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT BROUGHT CLOUDS INTO THE REGION YESTERDAY. ALSO CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER WESTERN BC HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. USED THE ECMWF AND LOCAL WRF MODEL FOR UPDATES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ECMWF WAS USED MAINLY FOR THE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE INNER CHANNELS AS IT BEST INITIALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENTS. USED THE LOCAL WRF TO UPDATE WINDS IN THE GULF AS ITS SUPERIOR RESOLUTION ALLOWED FOR OUTFLOW WINDS TO BE CAPTURED. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE ON STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. && .LONG TERM...BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA STILL A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COMBINATION OF LOWS AND TROUGH WEAKEN THE HIGH DOWN TO BIT PLAYER THAT CAN BE MANEUVERED ABOUT BY THE LOWS/STORMS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO HAVE ENDED BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS MORE CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY TO TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SITUATION VARY SOME WITH THIS MINOR FEATURE MAKING TRACKING AND PREDICTION DIFFICULT. THERE IS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT THERE WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN THESE ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENT THAT MOST OF MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. SINCE THERE WAS NOT A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL REMOVE THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL OF A HEAVIER SNOW EVENT OR A MIX FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE. WILL BE KEEPING AN WATCH ON THIS SYSTEM THE REST OF MY SHIFTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018-025. STRONG WIND UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019. MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-032-034-035. && $$ TPS/BEZENEK  FXAK67 PAJK 221314 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 514 AM AKDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...RATHER QUIET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH SOME AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE FROM A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS DROPPING SW OUT OF THE YUKON WHILE THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH ARE FROM THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE LIFTING NW OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM MODIS AND VIIRS REVEAL SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND YAKUTAT. THE FOG AROUND PRINCE OF WALES HAS PROVED TO BE DENSE IN SOME PLACES AS HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK BOTH HAVE HAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING. AS SUCH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR HYDABURG AND KLAWOCK AREAS UNTIL 8 AM WHEN THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. THE WEATHER TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER NICE FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH INTO THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S FOR MOST PLACES. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THOUGH SOME HIGHER WINDS FROM SEA BREEZES COULD CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA STARTS TO MOVE IN. INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FOR MOST AREAS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES NW. SHOWERS WILL ALSO START TO BECOME A THREAT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE NORTH WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT. IT WILL NOT QUITE GET TO YAKUTAT BY LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OBSERVED THE CLOSER TO THE COAST MOUNTAINS YOU ARE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING FLOW. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY START CLEARING AND DRYING OUT LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG FORMATION AGAIN THERE. AS SUCH I HAVE INSERTED SOME PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE WERE SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES FOR THE INCOMING TROUGH. PRIMARILY WENT WITH THE NAM AND SOME ECMWF FOR OVERALL UPDATES AS BOTH LOOKED TO HAVE MORE OF THE CURRENT DETAILS. OVERALL CHANGES WERE MINOR. && .LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND AMPLITUDE OF A COMPACT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WED MORNING THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MODEST ASCENT/MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A COLD MIDLEVEL AIRMASS /-30 TO -35C AT H5/ WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA...THEN BECOMING ISOLATED ON THU. MEANWHILE...A DRY MIDLEVEL AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THU MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DISTURBANCE EXITS N. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING 850 MB TEMPERATURES PROMPTED A BUMP UP IN THU DAYTIME HIGHS FOR SRN AREAS...WITH VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE UPPER WAVES IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE N INTO THE CWA FRI AND SAT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT FEATURE...BUT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. NUDGED FRI HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THOSE EXPECTED ON THU DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE IS FORECAST FRI THROUGH TUE. THUS...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S ARE MAINTAINED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG-TERM. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE GULF AND NERN PAC BY THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH THIS LARGE TROUGH...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARD TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES PINWHEELING NWD FROM THE TROUGH INTO SE AK. FOR THIS REASON...WPC GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE ECMWF WAS PRIMARILY USED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE EXTENDED. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ027. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041>043-051. && $$ EAL/GARNER  FXAK67 PAJK 111327 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 527 AM AKDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING OVER NORTHERN B.C. AND ANOTHER LOW PASSING TO THE DISTANT SOUTH. NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY OTHER THAN CAUSING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM OVERHEAD. WHAT IT IS CAUSING IS A GENERALLY WEAK NWLY FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS TENDS TO BE A DRY PATTERN FOR US SO HAVE NO PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST. BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS CLOUD COVER. THERE IS A MARINE LAYER OVER THE GULF BUT WITH SOME BREAKS IN IT EVIDENT WITH THE SPORT MODIS NIGHT BAND AS WELL AS 3.9 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHIPS IN THE GULF UNDER THIS DECK HAVE REPORTED CEILINGS OF AROUND 2500FT AND COASTAL LAND AREAS HAVE REPORTED CLOUDS AS LOW AS 1000FT. CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WERE AROUND LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON STRATIFIED OVERNIGHT MAKING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WHILE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT BREAKS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH BEST CLEARING IN THE LEE OF THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. SOME AFTERNOON CU MAY DEVELOP AGAIN HOWEVER MODEL BASED CAPE IS FORECASTED TO BE A BIT LESS THAN YESTERDAY...DESPITE BETTER HEATING AT THE SURFACE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYER AS A WHOLE. HAVE SET HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT AROUND 60F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE MID 60S FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN AREA WITH HYDER PEAKING AT 70F. IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND LONGER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET QUITE AS WARM...OR ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT EARLIER THEN SOME INLAND AREAS SUCH AS THE MENDENHALL VALLEY COULD GET A COULD GET A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND REACH THE MID 60S. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT HOW STRONG OF A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BASED ON EXPECTED SUNSHINE/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE...UNLIKE WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. PREFERRED THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM FOR THEIR GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE INHERITED PRESSURE FORECAST. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS BASED ON LOCAL SEA BREEZE EFFECTS AND STREAM LINES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE OVERALL...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM...EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF ALASKA PERSISTS AND KEEPS A NOSE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE OUTER COAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY A DEVELOPING WAVE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PAST KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THE FRONTAL BAND WILL ARC OUT TO THE OUTER COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN CURVING WEST QUICKLY AROUND 50N AND RUNNING BACK TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. SO WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF PRECIPITATION GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE INITIAL BATCH OF MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WITH THE FRONTAL BAND LOOK TO BE SMALL CRAFT LEVEL RIGHT NOW OF 25 TO 30 KT. MAIN BURST OF RAIN SHOULD BE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. DO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS IN ALONG THE OUTSIDE COASTAL AREA OF THE PANHANDLE. THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING ISSUES WITH POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HEADING TOWARDS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA - SO WILL BE CONTINUING THE TREND OF USING WPC GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TIME STAGES OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO INTO SATURDAY WITH THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THEN LOWER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012. && $$ FERRIN/BEZENEK  FXAK67 PAJK 091354 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 554 AM AKDT SUN AUG 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AK GULF SHIFTS EASTWARD AND FLATTENS AS TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AK INTERIOR MOVES OVER. SURFACE LOW UNDER THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK THIS MORNING THEN TRACKING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AK GULF. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AK GULF. THIS WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXTEND EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH SPREADING RAIN BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL REGIONS. 6 HOUR QPF VALUES IN THE QUARTER INCH RANGE. UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW STILL ROTATING CLOUD COVER AND SOME LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY ARE NUMBERED WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT. NIGHTTIME MODIS SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD/FOG BAND OVER CROSS SOUND STILL IN PLACE. SO FAR THE OTHER TYPICAL FOG LOCATIONS NOT SHOWING SAME FOG DEVELOPMENT AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS SATURDAY. SOME PATCHY FOR NEAR PAYA AND PAKW BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE WAS BIT MORE DRYING YESTERDAY SO EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT NOT AS MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG. WINDS WERE PREVIOUS DRIVEN BY THERMAL GRADIENT AND THROUGH THE DAY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME MAIN DRIVER. BEFORE THE DEVELOPING AND LOWERING CLOUD DECK THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DAY TIME HEADING, BRINGING TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO HAVE SOME WEAK SEA BREEZE WINDS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER N LYNN CANAL WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS DEVELOPING WITH OTHER INNER CHANNEL SOUTHERN WINDS PICKING UP TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. COASTAL WATER WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT. MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR AND STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. LEANED MORE TOWARD ECMWF/NAM AS GFS WAS NOT HANDLING THE PANHANDLE SURFACE RIDGE WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE N GULF COAST MON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER WRN INTERIOR AK. LIKELY RAIN ACROSS THE N GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE AS THIS FIRST WAVE MOVES INLAND. THE BREAK WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH...AS ANOTHER...STRONGER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WED. THE THREAT OF ISOLD TSTMS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE LOW CENTER WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION YET...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL. THIS STORM WILL ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH PWATS 1-1.3" BEING PULLED N. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SCA WINDS OVER THE GULF WITH POTENTIAL FOR GALES DEPENDING ON THE RATE OF CYCLOGENESIS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS STORM WILL MOVE QUICKLY INLAND LEAVING A WEAKENING LOW DRIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THU. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT WITH THE EC TAKING THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY THU...WHILE GFS/GEM MOVE IT MORE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LATER THU. WENT WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...MOVING THE LOW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE MID THU. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND BUT IN GENERAL MAINTAIN ZONAL FLOW TO BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND. INHERITED FORECAST REPRESENTED THIS WELL AND MOST CHANGES WERE FOR THE WEEKEND WHERE A GFS/EC BLEND WAS USED TO UPDATE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE DROPPING TO AVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-042-043-051-052. && $$ PRB/BC VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU