FXAK69 PAFG 112058 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1258 PM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE CHUCKCHI SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SPLIT OFF AND MOVE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN ALASKA...BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE IT WEST ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AFTER FRIDAY. NORTH SLOPE...THE SUOMI NPP VIIRS SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT WAS INDICATING A DECENT LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY INDICATED 1 TO 2 MILES IN VISIBILITY WITH FLURRIES AND FOG. THE IFR CONDITIONS ALIGN VERY WELL WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MODIS IFR PRODUCT. THERE ARE SOME VERY ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THE MODIS LIFR CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITHIN THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND PERHAPS A BREAK IN SOME OF THE FOG. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPCOMING WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST BROOKS RANGE...PUBLIC ZONE 206 ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COLDER AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST INTO MUCH OF THE BROOKS RANGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE HILLS. WESTERN ALASKA...SOMEWHAT QUIET ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS LIKE ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTON SOUND INCLUDING THE ST MICHAELS AREA. THE VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DECENT POCKET OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA INCLUDING NOME AREA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD ST MICHAEL. OTHER AREAS OF THE NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS WERE MOSTLY SUNNY AS FORECASTED AND SEEN IN AREA WEB CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS. THUS UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE FOG OR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO REFLECT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS EXPECTING TO CLEAR LATER IN THE EVENING. GAMBLE WILL ALSO HAVE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES UP TO A MILE DUE TO LOW STRATUS IN THE AREA AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...FLURRIES EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 21 BELOW TO 28 BELOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF ?? TO ?? ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN...MANY AREAS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE INCREASED WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND COLD AIR WILL BE A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILL CONDITIONS OF 45 BELOW TO 60 BELOW...DEPENDING ON LOCATION...THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MAK MAR 13  FXAK69 PAFG 171205 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 405 AM AKDT SUN MAR 17 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BEAUFORT SEA DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CHUCKCHI SEA BY MONDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN THE AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA COOLER ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS BARROW BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTON SOUND THAT CAUSED STRONG WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITIES FROM WALES THROUGH TELLER OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST MATHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE YUKON DELTA TODAY AND WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA BEHIND IT AND STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE ALONG THE BEAUFORT SEA A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. WESTERN ALASKA...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. AT 130 AKST...SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MODIS INDICATED STRATUS DECK AND HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS YUKON DELTA...CAN ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN AREAS OF FOG. NORTH SLOPE... NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY BUT A COOLER AND WINDY PERIOD COMING EARLY TO MID WEEK. ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW FEATURE BRINGING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. IN ANY MODEL SCENARIO...EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW AND STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS STARTING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND SPREADING WEST ON WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR...SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET COOLER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH INTO INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA. SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODELS REGARDING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE ALONG THE ALASKAN RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PERHAPS FLURRIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ MAK MAR 13  FXAK69 PAFG 181211 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 411 AM AKDT MON MAR 18 2013 .DISCUSSION... AS ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IN CANADA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS WRANGLE ISLAND. AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA BY THIS EVENING...BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND FLURRIES TO EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KOTZEBUE SOUND BY FRIDAY MORNING. BOTH OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THE LOCATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AFTER FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR THIS FEATURE TO PULL IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BRING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA BY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CHUKOTKA PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAKER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUCKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER THE YUKON DELTA BY THURSDAY. THE MUCH STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT WILL IMPACT THE NORTH SLOPE AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND LOCATED NEAR BARROW ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH SLOPE...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT COAST THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FOR STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT ONLY WILL THIS SYSTEM BRING IN COLDER AIR WITH WIND CHILLS OF 50 BELOW TUESDAY MORNING AND SNOW OF AN INCH...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF WIND SPEEDS AND SNOW WILL CAUSE FOR BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES OF A MILE TO HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT COAST AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR FOR AREAS WEST OF BARTER ISLAND AS THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVES WEST ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTERN ALASKA...OBSERVATIONS OF FOG COMPARE WELL WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF THE MODIS IFR CONDITIONS AT 230 AM AKDT ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA. EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUD/FOG FEATURES AND REMAINING FLURRIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA EXPECT INCREASED WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT TODAY...ALONG COASTAL ZONES 210 AND 220. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING SOME FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245. && $$ MAK MAR 13  FXAK69 PAFG 021221 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 421 AM AKDT TUE APR 2 2013 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER EASTERN ALASKA FROM CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND CLOSE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE TOWARDS NORTON SOUND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARDS NORTON SOUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED WEST. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AND INTERIOR ALASKA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ALL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AND HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WEST OF ST MATHEWS ISLAND WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHUCKCHI SEA THROUGH BEAUFORT SEA. GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE GOING FOR NEARLY 10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA AND ECMWF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE NEARLY 10F DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...BOTH MODELS ARE PREDICTING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C FOR THE GREATER FAIRBANKS AREA AND MUCH COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -30C FOR AREAS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PAST COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BRINGING IN COOLER AIR FROM CANADA HAVE MODERATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NOT BEEN AS COLD AS PREDICTED. FOR NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS A COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN STARTING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING. WESTERN ALASKA...AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE WESTERN COAST AND IN PARTICULAR THE YUKON DELTA REGION. BOTH THE MODIS AND GOES WEST FOG AND LOW CLOUD PRODUCT INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LIFR CONDITIONS FROM ST MICHAELS SOUTH TO EMMONAK. THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF ST MATHEWS ISLAND HAS INCREASED THE WINDS WITH THE TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE BERING STRAIT. THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS FEATURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN. NORTH SLOPE...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ARCTIC BEGINS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST THROUGH THE WEEK. IN PARTICULAR...THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM ICY CAPE SOUTH THROUGH POINT HOPE. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG AND POOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE ARCTIC COAST. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY POCKETS WITHIN THE YUKON FLATS AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW LATER TODAY AND MOVES WEST...AREAS OF FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO HAVE FLURRIES IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUBLIC ZONE 224 AND 223 MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF TOK...WHICH WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN PASSES AND ON SUMMITS...PERHAPS LOWER THRESHOLD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR FEW LOCATIONS WITH 40 TO 45 MPH. && .FIRE WEATHER... NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... MEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL LIMITING SNOW PACK RIPENING BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND SPREADING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ MAK APR 13  FXAK69 PAFG 212155 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 155 PM AKDT TUE MAY 21 2013 .DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN INTO A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN REBUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY. THIS TREND IS INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. GFS/ECMWF SIMILAR ON THE FORECAST POSITION FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A 998 MB LOW JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE TO ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...FILLING TO AROUND 1002 MB. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK LOW EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE TWO LOW CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE INTO A SINGLE 1008 MB CENTER OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST TONIGHT...BECOMING MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT. OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC SLOPE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER MANY PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LIKELY TO EXCEED 70 DEGREES. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MANY PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR...LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SOME SITES WILL HAVE MIN RH BELOW 20 PERCENT. EASTERN INTERIOR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT FORT YUKON AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT DOWNSTREAM TO TANANA AS BREAKUP ON THE YUKON RIVER PROGRESSES. A NASA/GSFC RAPID RESPONSE MODIS IMAGE TAKEN MAY 20 SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE FLOODED AREA ON THE YUKON RIVER EXTENDING FROM UPSTREAM OF THE ICE JAM ALMOST TO CIRCLE. AT ITS WIDEST POINT...ABOUT 12 TO 20 MILES UPSTREAM FROM FORT YUKON...THE FLOODED AREA APPEARS TO BE AS MUCH AS 7 OR 8 MILES WIDE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ220. FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ221. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ RF MAY 13  FXAK69 PAFG 261324 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 524 AM AKDT WED JUN 26 2013 .DISCUSSION... THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CERTAIN UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE NEXT 70 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS OBSERVED IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE ECMWF TENDS TO BE COOLER COMPARED TO THE GFS AND NAM. IN THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ALL THE MODELS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA WITH CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND AND MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TODAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ALASKAN RANGE TOWARDS MCGRATH THEN NORTHWARD TOWARDS HUSLIA AND CURVE TOWARD UMIAT. LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS AND NAM MODEL FOR THE INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND GETTING PUSHED EASTWARD BACK INTO CANADA AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS AND NAM THEN BRING THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MOVING TOWARDS MACKENZIE BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH IS BRINGS GENERATES SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. AGAIN LEANING TOWARDS THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE ECMWF SEEMING TO BE A BIT OVERDONE AND AGGRESSIVE THE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM THE ARCTIC COAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. NORTH SLOPE...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BEAUFORT SEA. IT WAS ANTICIPATED THAT THE WINDS WOULD HAVE SHIFTED BY NOW WITH MORE OFFSHORE FLOW AND BREAKING UP OF THE FOG AND STRATUS DECK. HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LINGER AND MODELS AND GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING LATER THIS MORNING AROUND 18Z. UNTIL THEN THERE IS DENSE FOG ACROSS BARTER ISLAND WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXTENDING FROM BARROW TOWARDS BARTER ISLAND. AGAIN THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE ON FRIDAY. WEST COAST...YESTERDAYS EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PARTICULARLY EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH NORTHWARD WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY UP THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF SHAKTOOLIK AND INTO BUCKLAND. THE HYBRID SATELLITE IR IMAGERY THAT COMBINES GOES IMAGES WITH THE MODIS OR VIIRS POLAR ORBITAL IMAGES SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -45C WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF KOYUK AND -44C WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF HAYCOCK. THUS DECENT THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUED OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING FURTHER EAST EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TOWARD GALENA AND HUSLIA. ALONG THE COASTLINE THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG...IN PARTICULAR SOME AREAS OF VISIBILITY DROPPING TO BELOW ONE MILE AT TIME OVER WHALES AND NEAR CAPE ROMANZOFF AND SCAMMONS BAY. THIS FOG SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. CENTRAL AND INTERIOR...AS MENTIONED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THERE WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT ON WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SOUNDING AT FAIRBANKS INDICATED 850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 18.2C COMPARED TO THE 16.1C YESTERDAY MORNING. NOT ONLY EXPECTING POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BUT ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT SINCE THE RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE WAS 76F DEGREES SET IN 1915...WHICH WAS SUSPICIOUS. IN ANY CASE...THE AIRPORT IS CURRENTLY AT 69F DEGREES EVEN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE WARMER AIR GETS PUSHED EAST. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY AS STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR ALASKA THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. THIS VOLATILE SITUATION IS A RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS OF 20 MPH... AND TINDER DRY FUELS. && .HYDROLOGY... NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ216-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223- AKZ224. && $$ MAK JUN 13  FXAK69 PAFG 291315 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 415 AM AKST SUN DEC 29 2013 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM WITH MODELS PRETTY SIMILAR OUT TO AROUND 72 HOURS OR SO. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...PATTERN IS PRETTY FLAT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. 517 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MEANDER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. A 530 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL SLIP OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN THEN REFORM ON MONDAY AND BACK ITS WAY OVER THE UPPER YUKON AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST TO OVER WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A 511 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY MORNING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 504 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SAND POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 508 DAM...THE LOW WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT 514 DAM BY THURSDAY MORNING AND SPIN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH ADVECTION GOING ON. ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE...1042MB HIGH NEAR 78N 145W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1036MB CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY...BUT IT DOES WEAKEN AS TIME PASSES. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FORTYMILE WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES UNTIL IT MOVES EAST...THEN PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WHEN IT BACK OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MIDDAY. SNOW ON THE WEST COAST WILL WORK ITS WAY WEST OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH SNOW ENDING IN THE MIDDLE YUKON BY THIS EVENING AND SOME LINGERING SNOW FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH ENDING MONDAY EVENING. 966MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER SAND POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SPIN ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THE ONGOING EVENT WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IN THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM THURSDAY. ARCTIC...RIDGE OFFSHORE AND TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS WILL PRODUCE RELATIVELY STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS NORTH OF POINT LAY. SOME LOCAL ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST. ARCTIC HAZE AND PATCHY FOG INLAND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY FLAT NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA SO ONLY A FEW FLURRIES FROM POINT LAY SOUTH IF ANYTHING. SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES PICKING UP TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30KTS SO EXPECT PASS WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH LOCALLY...WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THOSE AREAS OF UP TO 3 INCHES BEFORE THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE WEST TONIGHT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. MODIS 11 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS EAST OF SHISHMAREF AT 0839Z THAT WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY SO WILL ADD SOME CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO THAT AREA. LOW MOVING UP THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK WILL CREATE SIMILAR ISSUES TO THE ONGOING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A SLOW RISE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH PUSHES UP IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH. INTERIOR...FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GENERALLY FALLING APART OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AS IT DRAGS TO THE EAST. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW CAN BE SEEN ON THE PEDRO DOME NEXRAD OVERHEAD OF FAIRBANKS. SOUTH AND WEST OF LIVENGOOD TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO AND LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW. NORTHEAST OF THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 25 TO 45 BELOW INTO WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER MODELS DO SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH SO WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORIES FOR BLOWING SNOW OVER SUMMITS TODAY AND EXTEND THEM INTO MONDAY. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 13  FXAK69 PAFG 301258 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 358 AM AKST MON DEC 30 2013 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES OUT TO AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO IN ALL THE MODELS. THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF DIFFERENCES AS YOU GET FURTHER INTO THE MODEL RUN. MODELS ARE HAVING SOME PROBLEMS AT THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WINDS ON THE ARCTIC COAST. WILL USE A BLEND FOR WINDS SPEEDS OVER THE AREA AS NAM IS TOO HIGH AND GFS IS TOO LOW. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...539 DAM HIGH REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR 75N 143W EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. OVER THE ARCTIC THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTH AND WEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER CANADA REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY. WEAK FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. OVER THE WEST COAST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING NORTH TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...NO SIGNIFICANT ADVECTION UNTIL WE SEE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION UP THE WEST COAST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT PUSHES NORTH. SURFACE...1037MB HIGH NEAR 77N 140W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1038MB CENTER OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. DECAYING OCCLUSION OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NRTHWEST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST FROM ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO YAKUTAT BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO EAGLE BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TH ARCTIC PLAIN CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST CREATING STRONG WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS PATTERN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. ARCTIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE STRONG EAST WINDS OVER THE COAST EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND OVER THE MARINE AREAS EAST OF BARROW...ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN WEDNESDAY. BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES AGAIN TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO AROUND 35KT SO EXPECT PASS WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH LOCALLY...WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST WILL MOVE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ARCTIC TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 MICRON IMAGERY AT 0743Z SHOWS STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT IS MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE SIBERIAN COAST...WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND EXIT THE WEST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHICH WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. EAST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH AROUND UNALAKLEET WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING TO AROUND 20 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AFTER THE STRATUS MOVES OUT. INTERIOR...MODIS SHOW STRATUS HANGING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW. STRATUS AND FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TODAY AND DISSIPATE. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WARMING OR COOLING NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE HIGH IN THE ZERO TO 15 BELOW RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 5 TO 25 BELOW RANGE. WINDS OVER SUMMITS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR TODAY AND HAVE WORDING CONCERNING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ELLIOTT HIGHWAY. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ219-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 13  FXAK69 PAFG 311327 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 427 AM AKST TUE DEC 31 2013 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY CONTINUES BUT ONLY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. MODELS STAY FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MAJOR ELEMENTS...BUT START SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN POSITIONING AND EVOLUTION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...537 DAM HIGH REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR 78N 155W EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. OVER THE ARCTIC THE RIDGE BE QUASI STATIONARY. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY AS A BRANCH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC ROTATES INTO THE AREA. A 505 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...THEN BE LOCATED ANYWHERE FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE UP THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TRANSITION TO EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. OVER THE INTERIOR...LIGHT FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE...1035MB HIGH NEAR 79N 149W EXTENDS SOUTHEAST TO A 1038MB CENTER OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA. THE 1035MB HIGH WILL MOVE NORTH ABOUT 200 NM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BE REINFORCED BY A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SO WINDY CONDITION WILL PERSIST. WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW WILL PUSH A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE INTERIOR AND UP THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WISE...MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW FOR PLACES THAT GET PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC...WINDS CONTINUE AND WILL PICK UP ALONG THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OF SO. BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE IN THE COASTAL AREAS REDUCING VISIBILITY. MODIS 11 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS SOME STRATUS UP OVER THE COAST WHICH WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC. INLAND CLEAR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. IN THE BROOKS RANGE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND WILL PICK UP A LITTLE GUSTING TO 45 MPH IN PASSES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NONDESCRIPT FLOW NEXT 12 HOURS AS LOW PUSHES NORTH. PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE INTERIOR...THOUGH MODIS DOES SHOW STRATUS HANGING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS. WINDS OVER SUMMITS CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM NORTH OF FAIRBANKS SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES INTO THE EVENING AND HAVE WORDING CONCERNING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE ELLIOTT HIGHWAY. TANANA VALLEY JET CONTINUES AND WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD WORDING ABOUT STRONG WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB DEC 13  FXAK69 PAFG 011238 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 338 AM AKST WED JAN 1 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS. WILL USE A BLEND AFTER THAT TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...537 DAM HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 505 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER ILLIAMNA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE KOBUK BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN NUNAVUT. A 508 DAM LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AT 509 DAM BY THURSDAY MORNING MOVING NORTH TO OVER THE MOUTH OF NORTON SOUND BY FRIDAY MORNING. A SHARP RIDGE WILL PUSH 537 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT..THE RIDGE THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE...1035MB HIGH NEAR 80N 155W WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. A 979MB LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY THURSDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 1004MB. A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL WORK NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT. A 1013MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 977 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO ADAK THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES EAST IT WILL SPIN SOME MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ARCTIC...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY START DIMINISHING FROM THE EAST. BLOWING SNOW MAY BE AN ISSUE IN THE COASTAL AREAS REDUCING VISIBILITY...BUT SINCE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN UP FOR SO LONG MOST OF THE SNOW IS ALREADY BLOWN AWAY. MODIS 11 MICRON SATELLITE AT 0730Z SHOWS THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AS A WARM PLUME EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST. STRONG WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES CAN ALSO SHOW UP AS MUCH WARMER THAN THE SURROUNDING AREA. CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH SOME STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AS USUAL. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SOUTH OF AMBLER TODAY...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION...MAY AN INCH FOR MOST PLACES. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AROUND MCGRATH. SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING IN THE YUKON DELTA AND WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH THIS MORNING WILL TAPER DOWN LATER IN THE DAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS. INTERIOR...CLOUDY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR...LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS ARE CHINOOKING OUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR SO ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH...HOWEVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE TODAY WITH HIGHS 15 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235. && $$ SDB DEC 13  FXAK69 PAFG 141342 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 442 AM AKST FRI FEB 14 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...AT 500 HPA THEY REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH 78 HOURS OR SO AS A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA PINBALLS AROUND. AT THE SURFACE THEY ARE SIMILAR THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS AS LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY DEEPENS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 483 DAM CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER KODIAK WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH BACK OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN BECOME QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE UP THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR IS BEING MIXED OUT BY THE WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF. MODELS DO CONTINUE TO SHOW A POOL OF COLD OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...977 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY AS IT DEEPENS TO 968 MB SATURDAY MORNING NEAR CORDOVA. BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE HANGS AROUND INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY TO THE ARCTIC COAST...GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES MOVING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW BRING BANDS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO THE INTERIOR. A BAND WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND TO OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME OF THAT ENERGY WORKING UP INTO THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND OUT TO THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA. 0755Z MODIS 11UM SHOWS A PATCH OF STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED BUT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL DEVELOP WEST OF DEADHORSE TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILL FALLING TO AROUND 55 BELOW...SO WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLD TEMPERATURES HANGING ON OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH FOR CLOUDS AS EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY WITH SOME SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...KOBUK VALLEY...AND NOATAK VALLEY AT THIS TIME. INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF SWINGING BANDS OF MOISTURE NORTH EXPECT SNOW TO DE3VELOP OVER ZONE 226 THIS EVENING WORKING NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR SATURDAY MORNING AND TO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY EVENING. GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY WITH WINDS OVER SUMMITS BLOWING AROUND 25 MPH WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS. THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WILL MIGRATE NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD IS REINFORCED NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212- AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226- AKZ227. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ218. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB FEB 14  FXAK69 PAFG 202247 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 147 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE NEAR TERM. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE BUILDING BLOCKING HIGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOT DOING SO WELL WITH THE SHORTWAVES THAT MOVES UP THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...505 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEAST AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY WITH A 537 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA NEAR 66N 162E MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN MERGING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A CLOSED HIGH WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY WITH A 558 DAM CENTER. A 518 DAM LOW CENTER 600NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE OVER ATKA ISLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT...TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST. SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN ANCHOR OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO ATKA ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 974MB...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT STRENGTHENS TO 964MB...MOVING TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 970MB. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING...TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO DRAG UP THE COAST INTO SATURDAY AS IT STALLS ALONG THE COAST FROM POINT HOPE EXTENDING SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OVER CHUKOTKA. A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY AS CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN RANGE. ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. BIG PATCH OF STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS YESTERDAY...THAT WAS SHOWING UP ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS UP WELL AGAIN TODAY...HAS MOVED SOUTH TO THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRATUS WILL MOVE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND WILL HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT...SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARM UP FOR THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE COMMUNITIES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION IT TO START OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGE TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH FRIDAY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL CREATE NEAR WINTER STORM CONDITIONS...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR Z211...Z212...Z213 AND Z214. A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG SEEN IN THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT IS ERODING...BUT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH STRATUS AND FLURRIES. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT MOVE TO THE WEST OUT OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GEOCAT MODIS SHOWS SOME IFR AND LIFR BUT IT IS OFFSHORE AROUND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. INTERIOR...PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND AS IT SLOWLY ERODES. THE GEOCAT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS NO AREAS OF LIFR OR IFR IN THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT COOLING AND DAYTIME WARMING. CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS NEAR PASSES BUT NOT TO WARNING LEVELS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB FEB 14  FXAK69 PAFG 071051 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 151 AM AKST FRI MAR 7 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD IN THE NEAR TERM LATELY...AND THIS CONTINUES FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO THIS RUN. BECOMES PRETTY MUDDLED AS TIME GOES ON SO WILL USE THE MEAN BEYOND THAT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING CONTINUES ITS DOMINANCE OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK TROUGH RUNNING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. 516 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT WAS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA HAS MOVES TO OVER ST MATTHEW ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORTWAVE IN THE HIGH ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AS CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. 504 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WORKS SOUTHWEST OVER TANANA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE UPPER NOATAK EARLY MONDAY MORNING CONTINUING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PUSHES 522 HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY MORNING MOVES OVER COLD BAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...AS UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC IT BRINGS SOME COLD AIR WITH IT AND THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH TO LIE FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE YUKON TERRITORY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE STATE. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN WILL PERSIST. 976MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SOUTH OF YAKUTAT ON SATURDAY MORNING THEN PINBALL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A 980MB LOW NEAR 40N 180 SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF NIKOLSKI BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TO 250NM SOUTH OF KODIAK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO COOK INLET AT 980MB BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND CAUSING HAVOC WITH THE TAFS. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH A LARGE BAND OF STRATUS...SHOWS UP ON THE 1347Z NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT...THAT MAY DROPS SOUTH ALSO...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ITS PROGRESSION SOUTH. IF IT DOES MARCH SOUTH...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH IT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AND THE STRATUS WILL HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES. 07/0814Z MODIS 11 UM BT SHOWS SOME STRATUS IN THE LOWER YUKON. EXPECT FLURRIES IN THE LOWER YUKON TO TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DIURNAL RANGES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES. WINDS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING THEN GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS BUT AT TIMES MAY KICK UP AROUND 20 MPH AS THE GRADIENT SQUEEZES A LITTLE. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW AT VALLEY LEVEL FOR MOST AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE. NORTH WINDS PERSISTING AND MAY BE A LITTLE GUSTY NEAR ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGE PASSES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 081157 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 257 AM AKST SAT MAR 8 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN THE NEAR TERM. GOOD INITIALIZATION WITH THE 00Z RUN. WILL USE A MEAN TO ELIMINATE THE NOISE BETWEEN THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST TO WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING DRIFTS SOUTH AND DISSIPATES. SHORT WAVE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTH AS 504 DAM CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE TROUGH OVER VENETIE THIS EVENING THEN DRIFTS OVER LIVENGOOD TONIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING NORTH OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWEST RIDGE PUSHES NORTH AND WEST OVER THE INTERIOR WITH 520 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY TUESDAY MORNING. A 507 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC SUNDAY MORNING MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN MERGES WITH THE LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR WITH IT AND THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH AND THEN EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN FROM NOME TO EAGLE BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATS NORTH AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE STATE. 974MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 100NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT THIS MORNING THEN PINBALL WEST TO OVER COOK INLET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 985MB LOW NEAR 40N 180 THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF ADAK BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN TO 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TO KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING NORTH TO BE OVER COOK INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE MID WEEK. ARCTIC COAST...STRATUS AND FLURRIES STILL CAUSING HAVOC. 08/0718Z MODIS 11UM BT SHOWS STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND ALSO JUST OFF THE COAST MOVING SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...THE EXCEPTION BEING CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH DIURNAL RANGES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES. WINDS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE IS FLUNG NORTH BY THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MILD WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 091133 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 333 AM AKDT SUN MAR 9 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZE WELL. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE CHANGE IN PATTERN AS RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER EASTERN INTERIOR AND TROUGH DIGS DOWN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING UP THE FACE OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING BACK OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FROM LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. CLOSED 500 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER BEAVER THIS MORNING THEN MOVES NORTHWEST OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY EVENING. RIDGE PUSHES NORTH AS LOW PULLS OUT WITH RIDGE AXIS LYING EAST TO WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FIRST MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PULLING THE 20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH AND THEN EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN FROM NOME TO EAGLE MONDAY MORNING. THE ISOTHERM THEN PUSHES NORTH IN THE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND GETS PULLED SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE LOW ALOFT DROPS SOUTH. SURFACE...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE STATE...BUT THAT WILL BE CHANGING AS THE WEEK GOES ON. 980MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT THIS MORNING WILL PINBALL WEST TO COOK INLET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. A 964MB LOW NEAR 47N 169W THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN TO KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING NORTH TO BE OVER COOK INLET WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERN INTERIOR LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH THE CHINOOK FLOW...BUT EXPECT SNOW OUT WEST AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH ANYWHERE AT THIS TIME. ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING...BUT MORE STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE CAN BE SEEN ON THE MODIS 11 UM BT AT 09/0801Z MOVING SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES TO MOVE OVER THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WAINWRIGHT EAST. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH DIRECTION DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE BUBBLE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY EXCEPT ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. STRONG WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL LET UP A LITTLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD TODAY BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY ALONG THE COAST AS THE WEEK GOES ON. INCREASING CLOUDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SPREADING TO THE INLAND AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. INTERIOR...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WHICH WILL SEE CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES TODAY THAT ARE BEING FLUNG NORTH BY THE LOW NEAR YAKUTAT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AROUND THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING WILL TAPER DOWN AS THE DAY GOES ON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER FAIRBANKS SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT THAT MOST SNOW WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 101036 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 236 AM AKDT MON MAR 10 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODEL INITIALIZED WELL ON THE MAJOR FEATURES. PATTERN CHANGE IS ONGOING AND ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT SIMILARLY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...CLOSED 501 DAM LOW OVER NORTHWEST MAINLAND MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE BERING STRAIT BY TUESDAY MORNING. 499 DAM CLOSE LOW 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH OVER ILIAMNA THIS EVENING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE FIRST MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL FOLLOW WITH THE NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM NOME TO EAGLE THIS MORNING. THE ISOTHERM WILL PIVOT ON A POINT OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTH OVER THE MAINLAND AND COLD AIR PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE 500 HPA LOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN BERING SEA. SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL BREAK DOWN AS 962MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH TO BE OVER KODIAK ISLAND TONIGHT...AND CONTINUES NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT 988MB THEN DISSIPATES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE 200NM SOUTH OVER SAND POINT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 973MB. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE DEVELOPING TODAY AS FIRST LOW MOVES NORTH...STRONGER CHINOOK FLOW WITH THE SECOND LOW ON THURSDAY. BAND OF SNOW TO REACH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON EXTENDING EAST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. EAST OF TANANA AND SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THE INTERIOR WILL MOSTLY BE SHADOWED OUT OF THE SNOW...THOUGH SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. EXPECT A MESSY WEATHER SITUATION OUT WEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BRING MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ARCTIC COAST...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING. MODIS 11 UM BT AT 10/0706Z SHOWS STRATUS JUST OFFSHORE OF BARROW MOVING SOUTHWEST. BARROW SHOULD CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT Z201 WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT LOWS FOR MOST AREAS TO BE 20 TO 40 BELOW TONIGHT WITH SOME 50 BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...GETTING PRETTY COMPLICATED OUT WEST. SNOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AROUND NOON TODAY THEN SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. SEWARD PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA COAST WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT...BUT THE SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS AS THE FRONT ROTATES OVER THE AREA. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE LOWER YUKON AND NULATO HILLS UPSLOPE AREAS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW ENDING OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT FRONT SPREADS FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE LOWER YUKON BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INLAND BEGIN WARMING TODAY WHILE THE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL AS COLD AIR IS PULLED DOWN THE COAST. WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING LATE TODAY. INTERIOR...SUNNY EARLY TODAY THEN INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AS MOST AREAS WILL BE SHADOWED OUT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TODAY WITH WARMING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL REACH INTO THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR. NEXT FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOW SIMILAR TO TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK CHINOOK WILL PRODUCE WINDS NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE FIRST EVENT AND SLIGHT STRONGER WINDS WITH THURSDAYS FRONT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 311122 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 322 AM AKDT MON MAR 31 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RUN TOO COLD SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE. GFS STILL TRYING TO CREATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE VERY DRY INTERIOR OF ALASKA SO WILL REMOVE THEM FROM THE EQUATION FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS SEEMS TO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING SYSTEMS SO WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FOR GENERAL PATTERN. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...531 DAM LOW OVER AMBLER CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY TO BE OVER YAKUTAT BY TUESDAY MORNING. 537 DAM HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTH TO BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD UP THE WEST COAST WITH A 548 DAM CLOSED HIGH BEING PINCHED OFF OVER THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. 506 DAM LOW OVER ATKA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT NORTHWEST. SURFACE...NOT MUCH OF A FLOW PATTERN OVER THE STATE AGAIN TODAY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING UP THE WEST COAST WILL IMPROVE CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE STRATUS AND FOG BACKED UP AGAINST THE BROOKS RANGE. A 1019MB LOW NEAR 75N 175E WILL MOVE TO 78N 175W BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST. A 976MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE EAST TO JUST NORTH OF NIKOLSKI BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN NORTH AS IT DISSIPATES. A 1003MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR SAND POINT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES EAST TO NEAR SITKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC...STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE AREA SHOWING NOT SHOWING ANY MOVEMENT. DOES APPEAR TO BE ERODING AT THE EDGES ON SATELLITE BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE OUT OR LIFT UNTIL WEAK FRONT REACHES THE AREA TUESDAY. STICKING WITH PERSISTENCE OF LOW STRATUS...OCCASIONAL FLURRIES...AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. WILL CONTINUE THE HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT SINCE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF IT CLEARING UNTIL THE WEAK FRONT PROVIDES THE DYNAMICS TO MAKE IT GO AWAY. WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO 15 MPH TODAY SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOLING BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND SEWARD PENINSULA AND MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INLAND AREAS. MORE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL PUSH THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP IT HANGING AROUND. NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES OUT OF THE STRATUS. CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF Z214 WHICH WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE LATER TODAY TO 15 TO 30 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. WILL PUSH PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SINCE MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY AND MAKE TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR NO APPARENT REASON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST TO WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE HILLSIDES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 011128 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 328 AM AKDT TUE APR 1 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD WITH GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS. GFS/NAM CONTINUE THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE BY TRYING TO CREATE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DRY INTERIOR SO WILL REMOVE IT AGAIN TODAY. GFS STILL SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING SYSTEMS SO WILL LEAN ON THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FOR GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...538 DAM HIGH OVER ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE 544 DAM HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE 544 DAM HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 531 DAM. A 522DAM LOW OVER 76N 160W WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 100 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 514 DAM. TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS MORNING...DRIFTING EAST TO EXTEND SOUTH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TONIGHT...AND THEN EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING THE STATE. SURFACE...WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC NEAR 76N 160W WILL SLIP SOUTH TODAY TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL PERSIST. A 982 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST TO ATKA ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AND NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 982 MB. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC...STILL SOME STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE AREA AS SEEN ON MODIS 11UM BT AT 0807Z. WEAK FRONT HAS MOVED TO JUST WEST OF BARROW THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TO SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH...BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL DO MUCH FOR KICKING THE STRATUS OUT OF THE AREA SO WILL KEEP IT IN THE AREA WITH SOME BREAK IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. A SLIGHT COOLING OF TEMPERATURES WEST OF BARTER ISLAND NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NICE MODIS 11UM BT AT 0807Z STILL SHOWS STATUS HANGING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOTZEBUE SOUND. MOSTLY CLEAR INLAND AND OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND NORTON SOUND REGIONS. GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST...WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT SUNNY DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SINCE MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRY AND MAKE TEMPERATURES COLDER FOR NO APPARENT REASON. LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OF THE HILLSIDES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 021022 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 222 AM AKDT WED APR 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT BEYOND THE SHORT TERM WITH THIS LATEST RUN. GFS/NAM CONTINUE THEIR POOR PERFORMANCE BY TRYING TO CREATE SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DRY INTERIOR SO WILL REMOVE IT AGAIN TODAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A REGIME CHANGE OVER ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE UNDER FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR SO WILL LEAN ON BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...543 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL WEAKEN AS 517 DAM LOW OVER THE HIGH HIGH ARCTIC DROPS TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMPLEX LOW OVER THE BERING SEA MOVES EAST. RIDGING ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA ACROSS NORTON SOUND AND SOUTH OVER COOK INLET AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 520 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA ARCTIC COAST WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OVER OLD CROW TONIGHT. RIDGE GETS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS 514 DAM LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND MOVES EAST TO OVER BARROW BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. 513 DAM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THURSDAY MORNING TO OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE...WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF ALASKA. A 983MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON STRENGTHENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. AS WE GET TO THE WEEKEND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0712Z SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC TO THE ARCTIC PLAIN. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE STRATUS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND LOWS INTO THE TEENS BELOW. WINDS VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0712Z SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEST COAST. GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY TODAY. WINDS ON THE MAINLAND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND NOME EAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTERIOR...SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL NOT STICK AROUND SO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. RELYING ON PERSISTENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK THEN SOME COOLING ON THE WEEKEND WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB APR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 031130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 330 AM AKDT THU APR 3 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST AND MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GFS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY SO WILL AGAIN CLEAN ALL OF IT OUT OF THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE GETTING BETTER...NOT SURE IF IT IS TIED TO THE APRIL CHANGE TO A WARM SEASON FORMULA OR JUST THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...COL OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 511 DAM LOW OVER74N 175W WILL MOVE OVER BARROW BY FRIDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST TO EXTEND FROM OVER NUIQSUT SOUTHWEST TO OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 517 DAM LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST TO 300NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES STEADY THROUGH FRIDAY...SLIGHT WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH 980MB LOW IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL BERING SEA DEVELOPS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. LOW MOVES TO JUST NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 985 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN MOVES SOUTH. 993MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND NULATO HILLS TODAY AND STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT ALL PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO BE SNOW AT THIS TIME. ARCTIC...SOME CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. MODIS 11UM BT AT 0755Z SHOWS THE LARGE LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT WAS THERE YESTERDAY IS HANGING ON. OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO CHANGE OVER THE AREA...THOUGH A FEW SITES DID SHOW IT CLEARING FOR A SHORT PERIOD TODAY. WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OVER THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MAINLAND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH A LITTLE SO EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE PLAINS AREAS. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME BREAKS BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION EAST OF BARROW WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0755Z SHOWS SOME CIRRUS STREAKING OVER THE AREA OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH TROUGH AND FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH SO INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY WITH SOME FLURRIES BY EVENING. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTON SOUND NORTH TODAY. WINDS ON THE MAINLAND FROM THE MOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND NOME EAST GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTERIOR...HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY. AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. NO CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SOME COLD AIR PUSHES IN AS THE FRONT PASSES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB APR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 041106 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 306 AM AKDT FRI APR 4 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THE FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST AND MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONSENSUS ON BRINGING PRECIPITATION INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SATURDAY EVENING. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...COL OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. 506 DAM LOW 200NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE TO 250NM NORTH OF BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY...THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 497 DAM LOW NEAR 77N 170E. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING MOVING EAST TO LIE FROM OVER BARROW TO OVER MARSHALL AND SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM OVER BARTER ISLAND TO OVER MCGRATH AND SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE WEST COAST TO OVER THE INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING AND STALL AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH. MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND WILL PERSIST AS THE LONGWAVE REORIENTS NORTH SOUTH OVER THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FRONT AND ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR A COUPLE DAYS ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EACH AREA. SURFACE...INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH AS WELL AS COLD AIR DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WEST COAST. 984MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO 300NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 989MB LOW DEVELOPING NEAR KODIAK WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. THE LEESIDE LOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND THE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY EVENING WITH A 995MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TANANA FLATS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION. THIS WILL ENHANCE OVERRUNNING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SUNDAY EVENING THEN LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR INTO TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY EXITING THE STATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS HIGH OVER EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA MOVES WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST. ARCTIC...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0839Z SHOWS STRATUS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS IS PATCHY. WEAK FRONT WILL DEVELOP NEAR BARROW TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT. QPF VALUES ARE SMALL SO EXPECT JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW FOR AREAS FROM BARROW EAST TO DEADHORSE TODAY. AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEADHORSE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS...AND UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE LIFE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH LOW REACHING 15 TO 25 BELOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW STAYING BELOW ZERO. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND BARTER ISLAND WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH FLURRIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11UM BT AT 0839Z SHOWING LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A GOOD SIZED PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT DEVELOPING IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. MOST OBSERVATIONS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AT 0900Z. MAINLY CLEAR FROM NORTON SOUND NORTH ON THE COAST AND NORTH OF ANVIK OVER THE INTERIOR AT 0900Z. FOR AREAS EAST OF NOME LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY AND FLURRIES FROM SHAKTOOLIK SOUTH...SPREADING NORTH AND EAST BEGINNING THIS EVENING. CLOD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TODAY FROM NORTON SOUND NORTH WILL BEGIN PUSHING TEMPERATURES DOWN RESULTING IN THOSE AREAS BEING AROUND 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. QPF VALUES WITH THE SNOW ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO ONLY EXPECT UP TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH THE SYSTEM. INTERIOR...LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND LOW PUSHING TO THE NORTH GULF WILL HELP SPREAD CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SPREADING INTO MINCHUMINA AND WESTERN DENALI PARK TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INTERIOR. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WILL HELP ENHANCE THE LEESIDE TROUGH. WINDS IN GENERAL WILL BE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH. 995MB LOW DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY EVENING WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE LESS THAN 2 INCHES...THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE UPSLOPE AREAS LIKE THE WHITE AND RAY MOUNTAINS THAT COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY BUT NOT UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHEN THEY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ245. && $$ SDB APR 14  FXAK69 PAFG 021136 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 336 AM AKDT FRI MAY 2 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST FEW RUNS. MODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90 HOURS BEFORE THEY REALLY DIVERGE. GFS IS OVERDOING THE QPF NUMBERS AS USUAL SO WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF ECMWF AND NAM. SURFACE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. WILL NUDGE TO THE BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD AREA OF RIDGING AROUND A 576 DAM HIGH OVER FAIRBANKS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER DOT LAKE BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 569 DAM...THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS THE CENTER DROPS SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS 568 DAM. A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE TO OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SATURDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT EXTEND SOUTH FROM A 525 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...THE LOW DEEPENS TO 511 DAM AS IT MOVES INTO THE ARCTIC WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OVER BARROW TO BUCKLAND TO CAPE ROMANZOF BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH MOVES TO LIE FROM OVER DEADHORSE TO GALENA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TODAY WILL BE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AT AROUND 6 CELSIUS. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW CELSIUS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TEMPERATURES NOT SO COLD BUT EXPECT THEM TO FALL AS THE ZERO CELSIUS ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM KOMAKUK BEACH CANADA TO FAIRBANKS TO KING SALMON. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING ENHANCING CLOUDS AND MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN THE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN PUSH TO THE WEST CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...AND TANANA VALLEY WILL BOTTOM OUT TODAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES THEM UP A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ARCTIC COAST...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0724Z SHOWS PATCHY CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AT SEVERAL LEVELS. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA. CEILING WILL BE FAIRLY LOW BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG ISSUES FOR A CHANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY THEN DIP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT. DO EXPECT SOME DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0724Z SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS RUNNING SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. CLOUDY WITH SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND POINT HOPE...AND VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS. MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INLAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST...INLAND AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH ALL THOSE TEMPERATURES DOWN 10 TO 15 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MODIS 11 UM SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0724Z SHOWS NICE BIG AREA OF CLEAR SKIES OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY AND WARM TODAY AND TOMORROW UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S SOUTH OF FORT YUKON AND IN THE 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTH. SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AS THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS AND IS ENHANCED BY A WEAK PULSE THAT MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. && .FIRE WEATHER...WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THE INTERIOR ZONES TODAY...THOUGH WIND CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL. EXPECT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BOTTOM OUT TODAY WITH LESS WIND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY...ICE STARTED MOVING AT EAGLE LATE LAST NIGHT SO BREAKUP ON THE YUKON HAS BEGUN. STILL NO MOVEMENT AT DAWSON CANADA. REMAINDER OF RIVERS CONTINUE SLOW BREAKUP THOUGH THAT COULD CHANGE AS FREEZING LEVELS IN THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL RISE TO NEARLY 10000 FEET. REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AND THE ICE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE IN PLACE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ227. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB MAY 14  FXAK69 PAFG 142148 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1248 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL IN USING THE GFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAN MAINLY ON THE NAM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. ALOFT...575 DAM RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE WEST COAST FROM OREGON TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TO A 541 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TODAY AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. A COL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AS THE RIDGE STRETCHES OUT AND A 507 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DRIFTS NORTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING. A 506 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY MORNING BECOMING STATIONARY...THEN DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH IN THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE BEING DAMPENED OUT BY THE RIDGE. AT 850 MB...POOL OF ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS AIR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND SLOSHES OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND A 962MB LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT TODAY WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 967MB. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 975MB WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE WINDS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE RANGE AND THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND WEAKENS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...BUT GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE ARCTIC AS LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PUSHES NORTH A LITTLE AND THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PEAKING ON FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING DOWN. THIS WILL BRING SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THOSE DAYS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON TODAY...GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 14/1715Z AND THE SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT AT 14/1523Z NOT INDICATING ANYTHING IMMINENT. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST TONIGHT IF IT STAYS TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...PRIMARILY ZONE 214 AND 215...FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY GET SOME 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO CELSIUS BEFORE COOLING BEGINS. EXPECT WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRAIT TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST MAY BE GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW CREATING VISIBILITY ISSUES BY LATE THURSDAY SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA. ALSO...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIT ALL THE WAY TO POINT HOPE AND POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF KIVALINA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION AS IT IS CHINOOKED OUT. NORTH OF FAIRBANKS SOME AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE VERY PATCHY. WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND IN THE DELTA AREA...EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 152230 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 130 PM AKST THU JAN 15 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES WITH ALL THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. NAM WILL AGAIN BE THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THE SHORT TERM FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIE UP THE INTERIOR WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO THE YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST TO THE GULF OF ANADYR THEN NORTHWEST TO A 540 DAM RIDGE OVER SIBERIA. THE RIDGE IS SPLITTING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT AS 503 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND A 507 DAM LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. BY FRIDAY MORNING A TROUGH WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN INTERIOR EAST. THE LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA WILL COMBINE BY LATE FRIDAY INTO A 497 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTHWEST TO THE BERING STRAIT AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE UP THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE AND OVER THE TOP THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IMPACTING THE WEST COAST. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT BEGINNING SUNDAY AND MAY ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR. AT 850 HPA...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS. COLDER AIR MOVES TO THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH IN THE BERING SEA AND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND 958 MB LOW 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY THIS EVENING WITH TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPING UP THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE ALL OVER THE MAP TODAY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AS THEY RISE AND FALL WITH THE CHANGE OF THE WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED 20 TO 30 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS AS THE SOUTH WINDS KICK IN THEN FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES WHEN THE WINDS TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR DIE DOWN. TROUGH UP THE WEST COAST WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC COAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST AND BROOKS RANGE/ARCTIC COAST. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH TO NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING STRAIT PUSHING THE STRONGER GRADIENT NORTH INTO THE THE CHUKCHI SEA...OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. CHINOOK FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT NOT TOO STRONG...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE IT FALLS APART. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING SO TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE...HOWEVER WITH THE WIND COMES BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND EVEN LOWER IN OTHERS...SO WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ALL ZONES STARTING THIS EVENING. 20 TO 40 MPH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL TAPER DOWN TO THE AROUND 15 MPH BY SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...SNOW...CHANCE OF RAIN...A MIXED BAG FOR SURE ON THE WEST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...OTHERWISE WEAK COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE IT ALL SNOW. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF KIVALINA AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THOSE AREAS. STRONG WINDS AROUND NORTON SOUND SOUTH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATION WISE. AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE COAST ON FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT MUCH BETTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE YUKON DELTA...NULATO HILLS...NORTON SOUND...AND THE SEWARD PENINSULA WITH SOME PRECIPITATION OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE RANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WEAKEN SATURDAY. STRONG WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND AROUND DELTA JUNCTION WILL GUST TO AROUND 45 MPH AT TIMES. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR...SOME FLURRIES IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS...FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER WHICH WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALL OVER...NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE IN WINDY AREAS THEY WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO NEAR 50 DEGREES...WHILE NORTH OF THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND FREEZING. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. SATELLITE...GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 15/2030Z SHOW A VAST AREA OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...BERING STRAIT...AND MUCH OF THE BERING SEA. IFR AND LIFR PRODUCTS ONLY SHOWING SOME POOR CONDITIONS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 15/1841Z CONFIRMS THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 15/2037 SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING THE ARCTIC COAST...SO NOT MUCH HELP UP THERE RIGHT NOW. LATEST PASSES DO NOT COVER THE BERING SEA SO NO DATA AT THIS TIME OVER THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205- AKZ206. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 172252 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 152 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN AND INITIALIZED WELL AT 12Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH THE LOW PLUS/MINUS 1MB. NAM HAS HANDLED THE PRECIPITATION WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED TEMPERATURES WELL SO WILL COBBLE TOGETHER SOME BLEND OF THE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS THIS GO AROUND. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE WINDS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE BUT WILL BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 493 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO BE OVER KOLYUCHIN BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS EVENING...THEN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES EAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE SITKA AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT 850 HPA...MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEK IN THE INTERIOR...WILL GO WITH NO AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD COOLING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS MIDWEEK. SURFACE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A 975 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND THIS MORNING AND A 981 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MORPH INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING AT 978 MB...THEN PINBALLS AROUND A LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO A DEVELOPING 999 MB LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO RUBY TO RAINY PASS...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO ALLAKAKET TO KANTISHNA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES EAST SUNDAY EVENING. A 1004 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY...THE OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL OFF AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL END ADVISORIES HERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 201 WHICH WILL HOLD ON TILL LATER THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY STILL GO BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES...BUT NOT FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARCTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT BEST WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT. SNOW TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TONIGHT AND ENDING BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE LOW BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE BERING STRAIT/CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...EXPECT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND IN THE COOL AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...INLAND AREAS COOLER STILL AS THE BUBBLE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT INLAND WITH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DIMINISHING TO TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE HERE...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AND NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER...MAYBE SOME FLURRIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE...BUT NOT GOING TO PUT ANY IN THE FORECAST SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW. SOME COOLING OF TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. SATELLITE...SPORT NPP VIIRS/MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 17/1804Z AND 17/1849Z CONFIRMS THE BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 17/2030Z SHOWS A PATCH OF LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND COLVILLE RIVER AND PRUDHOE BAY THAT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW. OUT WEST THE VAST AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOR LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND FOG. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 291215 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 315 AM AKST THU JAN 29 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...00Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 72 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE BASED ON THE NAM WITH A NUDGE FROM THE SREF. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH OVER THE STATE WILL MOVE EAST AS RIDGING PUSHES BACK ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE WEST WITH A 559 DAM CENTER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 DAM LOW NEAR THE SEA OF OKHOTSK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY NOON FRIDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC TO BANKS ISLAND BY SATURDAY NOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT SUNDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE FROM THE CURRENT 12 TO 22 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW. EXPECT THEM TO BE IN THE ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. SURFACE...1005MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST BUT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. 1043MB HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS MORNING WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A 985MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE INTO THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC THIS EVENING WITH A WEATHER FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT AND MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST TO BANKS ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AND PERSISTING FOR AROUND 12 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN CONTINUE EAST. WINDS INCREASING OVER THEN NORTHWEST COAST TO 30 TO 50 MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SNOW EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT BUT ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205 STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A LITTLE EARLY TO ISSUE ANYTHING FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST SO WILL LEAVE THAT TO THE NEXT SHIFT. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES...THOUGH IT WILL BE HARD TO TELL WITH ALL THE WIND. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES WARMER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA FROM KIVALINA NORTH IT WILL BE REALLY QUIET. EXPECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IN THAT AREA SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA OF ZONE 207. ELSEWHERE LOOK FOR SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH HERE SOME FLURRIES EAST OF THE TOK CUTOFF IN ZONE 226...OTHERWISE NO PRECIPITATION OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS. WARMING TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE SEE SOME NEAR 40 BELOW CELSIUS AIR AT 850 HPA MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS SPELL LOOKS TO BE PRETTY SHORT WITH WARMER AIR AND WEAK CHINOOK FLOW BEYOND THAT. SATELLITE...A LITTLE STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 29/0904Z IS CONFIRMED BY THE BARROW OBSERVATION IS MOVING EAST. A FEW MORE PATCHES EARLIER JUST NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AND BARTER ISLAND LOOK TO BE MOVING EAST AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AT 29/0725Z ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 301217 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 317 AM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR FEATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY MINOR DEPARTURES AS WE GET INTO THE MIDRANGE. MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO WILL USE A BLEND AND NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...LEANING ON THE NAM AND SREF FOR PRECIPITATION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM A 561 DAM CENTER OVER THE BERING SEA WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE FAST FLOW WILL ALLOW A 499 DAM LOW TO ZIP EAST OVER THE ARCTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER BANKS ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER NORTON SOUND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AT 555 DAM BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND OVER COOK INLET BY MONDAY MORNING AT 548 DAM. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY 8 TO 18 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE RISE AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. SURFACE...1045MB HIGH HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A 997MB LOW 250NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR 77N 150W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW IS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE BARROW AREA LATE THIS MORNING...THE PRUDHOE BAY AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HANG UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...BUT STILL BE IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TAPERING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. EXPECT SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TO THE EAST SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED LOOK GOOD. WINDS COME UP SHARPLY IN ZONE 204 LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THAT AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW COOLING TREND. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FROM KIVALINA NORTH AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH. WINDS TAPERING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING. SNOW ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY INTO MID DAY SATURDAY WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN ZONE 208 AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN ZONE 217. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE BERING STRAIT. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD WILL HANG ON THROUGH TODAY THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...CONTINUED WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS HAVE CHANGED THINGS UP A BIT AND IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE COLD WILL HANG ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SATELLITE...A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE AREA SO THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 30/1000Z AND MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 30/0950Z NOT MUCH HELP...BUT SOME OF THE STRATUS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY CAN BE SEEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DOT LAKE AREA USING THE PRODUCTS IN COMBINATION. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ207- AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 311342 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 442 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY OUT TO AROUND 120 HOURS. SHORT TERM IS VERY GOOD WITH STRONG CONCENSUS ON MAJOR FEATURES AND POSITIONS OVER THE FIRST 60 HOURS. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE PUSHING A WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY ON AGAIN. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL JUST USE A BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND WITH A 561 DAM HIGH OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AT 557 DAM SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFTS SOUTH OVER COOK INLET MONDAY MORNING AT 551 DAM. 502 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SHARPEN UP AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT EXTENDS FROM AROUND 75N TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND WEST COAST. SURFACE...1054MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON RIVER WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TO A 1046MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TILT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE TO LIE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY MONDAY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 1040MB CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND A 1032MB CENTER OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A 1004MB LOW NEAR 76N 140W WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING TO BANKS ISLAND BY LATE EVENING. A 1004MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND SLOWLY DRAG ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONDITIONS HAVE CALMED A BIT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST UNTIL LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT IS STALL DRAGGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE SOME SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST. STILL SEEING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED WEST OF BARTER ISLAND SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ZONE 206. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...EVERYTHING HAS SETTLED DOWN AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AROUND UNTIL MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON MONDAY. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP SO IT IS POSSIBLE IT MAY CHANGE AGAIN. SATELLITE...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AROUND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE ARCTIC COAST IS EASILY SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 31/0852Z AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 31/1030Z. THE STRATUS OVER NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING STRAIT CAN ALSO BE CLEARLY SEEN ON BOTH PRODUCTS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 011236 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 336 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN THE CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90 HOURS ON THE MAJOR FEATURES. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER A LOT ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND AS THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE KEEPING IT COLD AND MAKING IT COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA...SO WILL LEAN QUITE A BIT ON THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY SEEM MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR TEMPERATURES WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL JUST USE A BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH 556 DAM CENTER OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL WEAKEN TO 549 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER KING SALMON BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AT 545 DAM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 561 DAM RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SHORTWAVE OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 529 DAM CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO NORTON SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...THEN TO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES. RIDGING FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT THEN ROTATE SOUTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SIBERIA TODAY AND MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND. SURFACE...1046MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING EXTENDS WEST TO A 1034MB HIGH IN THE BERING STRAIT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH 1010MB LOW AND FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST...AND A WEAKER FRONT WITH A 1014MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND DISSIPATING. THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A 1041MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEGINNING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN COAST...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SOME HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY. WARMER NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THEN THE COOLING BEGINS IN EARNEST. WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH AND WILL SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BIG PATCH OF STRATUS WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...AND THAT WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES TO MOST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA. WILL BE BOOTED OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT IF IT DOES NOT DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT. WEAK LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE COASTAL AND ADJACENT AREAS...BUT IT WILL IN MOST CASES NOT BE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRIESTS INLAND WITH WINDS ALONG THE COAST BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS. A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND STRETCHES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WILL BE A PROBLEM. WILL KEEP THE STRATUS AROUND AS IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE EXPANDING AT THIS TIME AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR IT TO DISSIPATE. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...COOLER THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE AS COLD AIR SINKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE MODELS AS THEY CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON WHETHER IT WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD MOVING IN TO THE AREA. SATELLITE...LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS FROM THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND WEST CAN BE SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 01/0755Z AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 01/1030Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 021241 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 341 AM AKST MON FEB 2 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED VERY WELL AT 06Z. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF IT COOLING BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARCTIC SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR COVERAGE AND NUDGE WITH THE OTHER MODELS TO GET PROBABILITIES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...558 HPA RIDGE EXTENDS WEST TO BRISTOL BAY THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS SPLIT AS A 530 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING AND DROPS SOUTH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARCTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING TO EAST OF BARROW THIS AFTERNOON...TO MACKENZIE BAY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING FROM THE 559 DAM HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A SECOND MAJOR SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN JUST EAST OF BARROW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO MACKENZIE BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 12 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL BEGIN TO COOL WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO 12 TO 30 BELOW CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM SLIGHTLY BEFORE WHAT MAY BE A MAJOR COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD. SURFACE...1038MB HIGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING ...AND A 1043MB HIGH LIES OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CANADA LATER TODAY. A 1010MB LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA IS MOVING EAST THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER PRUDHOE BAY WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 1015MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE LOW AS A 1035MB HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN LATE TUESDAY...THE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SPREADING EAST AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. CLEARING BEGINS IN THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE DROPS INTO THE ARCTIC PLAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW WITH THE LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW ENDING FROM THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATES. SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE NULATO HILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLOUDS TRANSITING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. MOSTLY CLEAR BY TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND ALONG THE TANANA RIVER AS THE TANANA JET HAS KICKED IN...BUT WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAGLE AREA AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE ALSO ON A DOWNWARD TREND. TEMPERATURES START A COOLING TREND AND WILL FALL 15 TO 35 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME CONCENSUS TEMPERATURES GOING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND STAYING COLD INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO THE ARCTIC COAST EVERY COUPLE DAYS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE EVENTS. WEST COAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN QUIET. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0839Z SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AND EXTENDING WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 02/0930Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 052232 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 132 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z RUNS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z AT THE SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL 132 HOURS OR SO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO NUDGE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...553 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY WITH THE ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING EAST TO THE BEAUFORT SEA TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MAINLAND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL DIG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A 511 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER YAKUTAT AND BECOMING STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY A 497 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER KODIAK ISLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR 80N TONIGHT AND DIVE SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY WITH A 504 DAM LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRUDHOE BAY...THE LOW DISSIPATES RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS ABSORBED BY THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN SIBERIA AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM BARROW TO YAKUTAT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL MOVE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT 20 BELOW OR COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIE OVER ALL BUT THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO TOKSOOK BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 30 BELOW OR COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING SUNDAY. SURFACE...1038MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO A 1035MB HIGH OVER PRUDHOE BAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE BERING STRAIT AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT NEAR 80 NORTH FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY DRAG EAST AND SOUTH EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING FROM A 1041MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN SIBERIA WILL EXTEND EAST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY EARLY FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. A 1038MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN SUNDAY MORNING. A 967MB LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MERGE WITH A 976MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR YAKUTAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVES BACK TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE HILLS WILL PICK UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MOST ACTIVE AREA IN THE FORECAST AREA. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HAZARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AS THE SECOND FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC AND WINDS INCREASE. NOT MUCH SNOW WITH THE FRONT SO BLIZZARD POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW AND WINDS WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL. WILL GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203 AND 206. KEEPING THE WIND CHILL FOR ZONE 203 BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO BE MORPHED INTO SOMETHING ELSE LATER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT DIVES SOUTH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS. SOME PATCHY STRATUS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CEILINGS TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND MAY CREEP EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 05/1308Z SHOWS SOME STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WITH SOME EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WEST OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH MOVEMENT BUT IT MAY DRIFT OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME STRATUS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO THE WEST OF FORT YUKON. THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE IS SOMETHING IN THOSE AREAS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ207. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 062223 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 123 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL THE MIDRANGE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER YAKUTAT AND KODIAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROUGH IS BROADER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS. SINCE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS IS JUST SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...552 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR IS SLOWLY BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 501 DAM LOW MOVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE 500 DAM LOW OVER YAKUTAT THAT FORMED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT OF CANADA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TONIGHT AS A 497 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE YUKON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THE LOW OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT OVER SAND POINT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN LOOP BACK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW LOOPS BACK NORTH A 508 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO KOTZEBUE TO BETHEL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BELOW ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM BEGINS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST AND WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO RUBY TO HEALY AND BY MONDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO BETTLES TO TOK. SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST FROM A 983MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ARCTIC FROM A 1045MB RIDGE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A 1042MB CENTER MOVING TO JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND A 1040MB CENTER DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR. A 1028MB CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A 1026MB CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS EARLY SATURDAY. A 965MB LOW OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND THE RIDGE OVER RUSSIA BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...AND THE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BUILDS...THE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL STRENGTHEN. THE BUILDING RIDGES WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS A SECOND FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EAST OF NUIQSUT WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 203 AND 206. WINDS KICKED UP A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN NEAR ZERO SO WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD FOR ZONE 204 THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WILL NEED TO ISSUE SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WINDS INCREASING IN GENERAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FALLING. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 207...209...AND 213. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR ON SUMMITS. COLDEST AREAS WILL CONTINUE BE THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...STILL LOOKING LIKE RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 06/1535Z AND NPP VIIRS AT 06/1511Z CLEARLY SHOW THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND AROUND INDIAN MOUNTAIN. OUT WEST THE STRATUS CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 06/1845Z NOT SHOWING INDICATING MUCH AS FAR AS POOR CONDITIONS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230- PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 251308 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 408 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THIS RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY NOON. THE 494 DAM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 546 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TODAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BEING SHUT OFF. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING MOVING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING AND CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING. A 564 DAM HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AND RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE RIVER OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE EVENT. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF WARMER AIR THAT THE MODELS CANNOT DEFINE DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE GRID. SURFACE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING SPREADING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. FRONT MOVES INTO YUKON BY AFTERNOON AS 1034 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 998 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE HIGH ARCTIC TONIGHT THEN MOVES EAST. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. A 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1001 MB THEN MOVE NORTH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 1006 MB...THEN MOVE TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INTO MACKENZIE BAY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW WILL SPIN UP INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE EXITING INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING AS A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY VARYING CONDITIONS AS EACH FRONT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN PERIODS WHEN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS HEAVIER SNOW AND STRONGER WINDS MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONTS. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205...BUT AS NOTED CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. WINDS INCREASING TODAY TO 30 TO 50 MPH AS ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW IN THE ARCTIC...BUT AREAS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO ZONES 207...208...210...211...213 AND 217. THE WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS SO INSTEAD OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL THE AREAS WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 213 AND UPGRADE THE REST TO WARNINGS IF THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ALREADY. QPF IS STILL PRETTY HIGH OVER THOSE AREAS...BUT GFS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE FRISKY THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED SO LOOK FOR WINDS FROM NOME NORTH OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND FROM KIVALINA NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE WINDS GUSTS NEAR 65 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THOUGH SOME WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES FROM FAIRBANKS WEST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FLURRIES ENDING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA WITH NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING SATURDAY...SPREADING SNOW FROM THE WEST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS AT 25/0845Z SHOW LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NO VIIRS FOG PRODUCTS SO FAR THIS MORNING TO COMPARE...BUT THE MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS WITH THE SAME TIME STAMP INDICATE IT IS MOSTLY STRATUS AND NOT FOG. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213- AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 272223 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 123 PM AKST FRI FEB 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ALL WEEK IN DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE WITH VERY MINOR PRESSURE DIFFERENCES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDDED DATABASE...BUT WILL BUMP MOST OF THE POPS UP USING THE SREF SO WE HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH AROUND ONE HALF INCH SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EXTENDS FROM A HIGH NEAR HAWAII. THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED OUT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT THIS EVENING. A SECOND...MUCH STRONGER...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 499 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW FALLS 497 DAM AS IT MOVES TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TO 78N 160W IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO MCCARTHY BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...THEN EXITS THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN PRETTY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS HEIGHTS CLIMB FROM AROUND 534 DAM SATURDAY EVENING TO AROUND 550 DAM SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY STALLING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 532 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 12 TO 16 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AND RISE 12 TO 16 DEGREES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY...THEN BECOME PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS KICK UP PRETTY GOOD WITH THE FRONT TO 40 TO 50 KTS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE...1029 MB HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO KIPNUK BY AROUND 3 AM...THEN FROM WAINWRIGHT TO KOTZEBUE TO MARSHALL BY 9AM SATURDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO TANANA TO LIME VILLAGE BY 3 PM...AND THEN FROM DEMARCATION POINT TO FORT YUKON TO EIELSON TO PALMER BY 6 PM SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST EXITING THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND IT...WINDS WILL COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID DAY SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR. STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING AT 1045 MB...THEN SLIDES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...IT IS GOING TO BE A MESS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING AROUND 20 CELSIUS OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THAT COMBINED WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY SIGNIFICANT WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE WEST THIS EVENING AND WORK ACROSS THE ARCTIC. INITIALLY WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 MPH GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH...THAT WILL BE AS STRONG AS THE WIND GETS WEST OF NUIQSUT...TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COMBINE TO PUSH WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE OF 65 MPH GUSTING TO 80 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO DRIFTS. VISIBILITY WILL BE VERY POOR AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS THEN REBOUND UP 10 TO 20 DEGREES FAIRLY RAPIDLY MONDAY. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNINGS FOR ZONES 203...204...AND 206 MAINLY EAST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MAINLY BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE COAST THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE. SOME AREAS WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FIRST SHOT. THE NEXT SHOT WILL COME WITH THE FRONT THAT GETS TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CARRY A LITTLE PUNCH WITH IT SO EXPECT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST. THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING BY NOON WITH INLAND AREAS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OUT HERE AS THEY WILL BE ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS THE COLD AIR HANGS BACK A LITTLE. STILL EXPECT THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE. STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECT IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND THE BERING STRAIT...BUT THEY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ROLLER COASTER AS THEY COOL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM RAPIDLY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP FOR 207...208...213...AND 217. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 209 AND 210 FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER FRONT MARCHES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS INCREASING AROUND TANANA BY 10 AM SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE HILLS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BUT EXPECT WINDS IN THE VALLEYS TO GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 7 INCH RANGE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT MUCH OF THAT SNOW ON THE HILLS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND INTO DRIFTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOOK FOR THEM TO REBOUND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 218...219...220...221...222...AND 224. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 27/2040Z/NPP VIIRS AT 27/2012Z 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS SHOW THE LARGE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE HARDER TO SEE IT ON THE NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS...BUT USING IN COMBINATION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND THE GOES CLOUD PHASE PRODUCT IT STANDS OUT REALLY WELL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ218-AKZ219- AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ235. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 012103 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1203 PM AKST SUN MAR 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT EVEN OUT INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. JUST GOING TO NUDGE THE CURRENT GRIDS WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH A CENTER OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS WORKING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. HEIGHTS AROUND 546 DAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL FALL A LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE RIDGE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE MAY SPREAD A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA...BUT NO PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ONE. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST AND NORTH AS IT WORKS OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE. A 536 DAM LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC AND INJECT SOME ENERGY INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MERGES INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN LIE FROM OVER POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET TO CAPE NEWENHAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM BARROW TO HUSLIA TO LIME VILLAGE LATE TUESDAY EVENING...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO BETTLES TO SEWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN EXIT THE STATE INTO CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL LOSE QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY AS IT PUSHES INTO AND OVER THE RIDGE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE IS SQUASHED DOWN AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE ENERGY...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE TRAIN OF WAVES THAT WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE WEEK GOES ON. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...AND WHAT MAY BE THE STRONGEST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ANOTHER 6 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS. ON THE WEST COAST SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. SURFACE...1041 MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MAINLAND WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET UP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE AS A 991 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA MOVES TO THE GULF OF ANADYR MONDAY MORNING...AND A 1000 MB LOW MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEMS COMBINE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST MONDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR MOVES TO THE ARCTIC THE LOW OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE MONDAY EVENING AT 998 MB...THEN TO KOTZEBUE SOUND AT 999 MB BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OVER THE RIDGE WITH A COLD FRONT DRAGGING EAST. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO NOME TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM BARROW TO AMBLER TO UNALAKLEET TO BETHEL TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA TO DILLINGHAM TUESDAY EVENING...THEN MACKENZIE BAY CANADA TO A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR BETTLES TO MCGRATH TO KING SALMON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DRAG ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MOVE FROM THE EAST COAST OF JAPAN TO THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONTINUES FOR NOW IN ZONES 204 AND 206...BUT WINDS WILL DROP OFF DRASTICALLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO CANADA. RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL ALSO COVER THE NORTH SLOPE SO CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP...WEST OF BARROW...FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH MONDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE SO EXPECT SOME STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT NOT SURE ON JUST HOW MUCH. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET FOR NOW. WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SNOW WILL BEGIN ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BECOMING HEAVY ON MONDAY EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS...RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS MID DAY MONDAY. EXPECT SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER ZONES 214 AND 215 WHEN IT STARTS BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE EVENING. BY TUESDAY MORNING SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER ALL THE COASTAL AREAS AND START WORKING INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS. SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE NULATO HILLS...THE CENTRAL SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...GOOD NIGHT TO VIEW THE AURORA AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL TONIGHT. SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDY AND PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7...VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN NORMAL LATELY SO SHOWING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENT AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 01/1357Z/NPP VIIRS AT 01/1438Z 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS CONFIRM THE MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE. AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS PROVIDE EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE ONLY STRATUS CURRENTLY FLOATING AROUND THE AREA IS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH THE EXITING LOW. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 161146 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 346 AM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE FUZZY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING RUNS SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STATIONARY 508 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS PUSHES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO LIE OVER THE INTERIOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY NOON TUESDAY THEN ROTATE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A 545 DAM HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NORTH TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 7 CELSIUS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA TO AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO 2 TO 4 ABOVE CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ON...BUT THE END IS NEAR AS THE 979 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR CONTINUE TO SPIN FRONTAL BANDS NORTH. LEESIDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WILL PERSIST WITH WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT...THE TROUGH THEN STRENGTHENS UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE GAP FLOW WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT SPINS UP TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY MONDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROAD TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UP THE WEST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1004 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE AND LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. SOME LOCAL GAP FLOW WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN 25 MPH. ON THE COAST EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT AS THE WINDS COME UP A LITTLE THAT WILL ALL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 16/0737Z NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG IN THE AREA AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF LOW CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CLOUDS ROLL OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT THAT EACH BAND WILL BRING UP TO 2 INCHES. ONE OF THE STRONGEST BANDS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND IT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND NORTON SOUND REGION. WITH THE TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SLINGS WARM AIR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS GET INTO THE MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS FROM NORTON SOUND SOUTH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET AND WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AS WEAK CHINOOK FLOW SENDS WARM AIR SURGING NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT THE FIRST FRONT TO REDEVELOP IN THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY...BUT THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. CHINOOK WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WITH EACH OF THE FRONTS...EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 225 AND 226 GOING THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO A LITTLE TANANA VALLEY JET HAS KICKED WINDS IN THE FLATS UP TO GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT WINDS AT NENANA TO KICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION AROUND FAIRBANKS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE FRONTS MOVES OVER THE AREA. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...SOME CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS ON DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH 546 HPA HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND 512 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 171011 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 211 AM AKDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM. AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE 00Z RUNS AGAIN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER EXTENDS NORTH OVER THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY. A SHORTWAVE WORKING NORTH ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA THIS MORNING LIES FROM NORTON SOUND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO EAGLE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLIDE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS MORNING...OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND. A 507 DAM STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES DID NOT INITIALIZE WELL AND WERE ABOUT 10 CELSIUS TOO COLD IN THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 5 DEGREES CELSIUS TOO COOL ON THE WEST COAST. MODELS DO WARM PRETTY RAPIDLY SO THEY SHOULD CATCH UP BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN REALITY TODAY. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A 976 MB LOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL NUDGE INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT. A 1025 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND PERSIST. A 1008 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC TODAY...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC TONIGHT. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE RANGES AND WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL HANG ON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING OFFSHORE WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE PLAINS AND COAST. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE DECAYING FRONTS MOVE OVER THE AREA AND DISSIPATE. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 17/0820Z NOT SHOWING SOME STRATIFIED CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS INDICATE THEY ARE PRETTY HIGH BASED. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...TODAY WILL BRING A FEW MORE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH NOT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE HEAVIEST AREAS IN THE NULATO HILLS. SNOWFALL GENERALLY CONFINED TO WEST AND NORTH OF RUBY TODAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA UP TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS BUT SOME AREAS IN THE NULATO HILLS COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THEN COOL TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED WARMING TODAY WITH THE WEAK CHINOOK FLOW ACROSS THE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST AREAS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND ON THE TANANA FLATS WHERE GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH WILL PERSIST. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE...BUT EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS ARE MOVING THE LOW NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS SOUTHEAST WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY. GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DOING THIS WITH THE ECMWF LAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY. WILL OPT ON USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO AVERAGE THAT TIMING OUT AND SOFTEN THE FEATURES A LITTLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 180941 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 141 AM AKDT WED MAR 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO. RUN TO RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AS WELL AND THE 00Z RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE TODAY AND A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGH MOVING TO SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND. A 507 DAM STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO ANCHOR ITSELF SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. A 521 DAM LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE FAIRLY WELL AT 00Z BEING ONLY AROUND 1 DEGREE TOO COLD. EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO AROUND ZERO TODAY IN THE INTERIOR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE ARCTIC OR ON THE WEST COAST. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A 976 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN. LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS NOT AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT IT WILL CONTINUE. 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BUILD SLOWLY WITH SOME REENFORCEMENT FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND CHUKCHI SEA. 1014 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC TODAY. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND THE THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 17/0547Z IS SHOWING A BIG PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE COAST. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATING IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS SINCE MOST OBSERVATIONS SHOW NOT FOG IN THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH HANGS AROUND. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONTAL BAND WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY FROM THE NORTON SOUND REGION SOUTH THIS MORNING...WILL SPREAD A PERIOD OF SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. ACCUMULATION WILL BE AT MOST AROUND 1 INCH. A FEW FLURRIES NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA. WINDS IN THOSE AREAS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 45 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WARMER AGAIN TODAY AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH WITH THE WEAK CHINOOK FLOW. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS STILL INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE STATE BY MIDWEEK AND THE TIMING BETWEEN MODELS IS GETTING CLOSER. WILL AGAIN OPT ON USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO AVERAGE THAT TIMING OUT AND SOFTEN THE FEATURES A LITTLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 191006 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 206 AM AKDT THU MAR 19 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS OR SO. CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AND THE 00Z RUNS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT DATABASE AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM CANADA THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING WITH A 544 DAM HIGH OVER YUKON TERRITORY...THE RIDGING WILL SLIDE NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY AS A 544 DAM HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...THEN OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC COAST. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO LIE FROM OVER BUCKLAND TO ANAKTUVUK PASS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN UP OVER THE ARCTIC BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE TO LIE OVER KAKTOVIK TO EIELSON TO ANCHORAGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO HUSLIA TO ANVIK BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE. A 535 AM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TO OVER KAKTOVIK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A 510 DAM STACKED LOW REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES INITIALIZE AROUND 2 CELSIUS WARMER THAN THE MODELS AT 00Z. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START COOLING TODAY AND MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING BY LATE THURSDAY. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AROUND A 982 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SURFACE PATTERN. WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS CONTINUES. 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA PERSISTS AND IS GETTING SOME HELP FROM A 1033 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE HIGH CENTER MOVING TO 77N 157W BY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK TROUGHING AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH IN AREAS SOUTH OF WAINWRIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 19/0629Z IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG BASICALLY FROM THE DALTON HIGHWAY WEST. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEAK DECAYING FRONT HANGING AROUND THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH IT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY SOUTH OF NORTON SOUND. WINDS NORTHEAST TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...BUT OVER THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA WINDS OF 20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ALSO...CONTINUED WARM...BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE 30S AND 40S SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AND INTO THE 20S TO THE NORTH. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TANANA VALLEY...WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK ON THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE INDICATING A DRY PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB MAR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 201025 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 225 AM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS AND THEY HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT QUITE WELL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT DATABASE AND A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST FROM OLD CROW YUKON TO ANAKTUVUK PASS THEN SOUTHWEST TO NOME THEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE NORTH OVER THE NEAR SHORE ARCTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM OVER DILLINGHAM TO GALENA TO BETTLES THIS MORNING AND WILL SPLIT WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF ROTATING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING NORTHWEST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING. A SECOND RIDGE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM OVER OLD CROW TO CORDOVA THIS MORNING AND MOVE TO LIE FROM KAKTOVIK TO LIVENGOOD TO HOMER BY THIS EVENING...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO RUBY TO ILIAMNA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS. A 536 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY TODAY AND MOVE TO THE ALCAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TO OVER KAKTOVIK BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. A 513 DAM STACKED LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY EVENING. A 525 DAM LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS EVENING THEN MERGE WITH THE LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT ZERO TO 5 BELOW AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY THEN SO SLIGHT COOLING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. SURFACE...QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES UNDER THE BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING IN THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC PLAINS. THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND AND WEAK HIGHS AND LOWS DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A LITTLE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...BERING STRAIT...AND CHUKCHI SEA. A 1010 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT BY SUNDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND THE AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING OVER MOST AREAS AT 10 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 30 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC STRENGTHENS TODAY...THEN WEAKENS SATURDAY TO 10 TO 20 MPH. A FEW FLURRIES THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW EXPECTED. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 20/0535Z IS SHOWING PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OR FOG OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND COAST THIS MORNING AND GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT IS MOSTLY MVFR CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 2000 FT. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...DECAYING FRONT REMAINS OVER COASTAL AREA WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS. SOME CLEARING INLAND. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST INTO THE AREA WILL HELP KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND...BUT ONLY EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY...BUT WEAK COOLING WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CONTINUED WARM AND SUNNY TODAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS AGAIN TODAY AS THEY ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE MORE THAN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...EXTENDED MODELS ARE QUITE A MESS SO WILL LEAN ON THE WPC GUIDANCE AND USE A BLEND OF MODELS. THE ONE THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB MAR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 162106 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 106 PM AKDT THU APR 16 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. AT 500 HPA THEY ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 519 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH AND DISSIPATES IN THE BUILDING RIDGE. 510 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER CHUKOTKA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AS A 508 DAM LOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH 544 HEIGHTS OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A 120 KT JET DIVES INTO THE BASE OF THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS TO 503 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER SAND POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN MOVES OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING AS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 4 CELSIUS ABOVE. ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC COAST TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 3 TO 6 BELOW CELSIUS. SURFACE...WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE. A 999 MB LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MIDDLE KOYUKUK RIVER BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 975 MB LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE BEHIND THE DISSIPATING LOW. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPING...FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL SPREAD SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. NEXT FRONT WILL BE PRETTY DRY IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE CHINOOK FLOW SO MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH UP THE COAST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...QUIET PERIOD WITH NOT MUCH WIND EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 16/1416Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF STRATUS THAT STRETCHES FROM BANKS ISLAND CANADA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA. MOVEMENT IS FROM EAST TO WEST. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE BREAKING UP OVER MACKENZIE BAY SO BY TOMORROW MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY BUYING INTO THAT SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE. WINDS GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET OUT HERE FOR NOW. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS IN THE MCGRATH AREA AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS THE FRONT AND LOW OVER COOK INLET MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING SPREADING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY SNOW...TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER NORTON SOUND AND ONTO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME CHINOOK WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING MUCH NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...MAY MIX WITH SNOW IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. CHINOOK SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND DELTA JUNCTION. WINDS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. && FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL CREATE NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME FUELS ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE BURNABLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB APR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 202129 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 129 PM AKDT MON APR 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AT TO AROUND 60 HOURS. START SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BEYOND 90 HOURS. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A 524 DAM LOW DEVELOPS...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 519 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE AROUND THE LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL CENTERS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 974 MB LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY EVENING. A 1003 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 200NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT AT 985 MB...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 998 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO BE OVER BARTER ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 997 MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL PUSH NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 1017 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE EASTERN COAST. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH OVER BARTER ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS FROM BARROW EAST WILL SNAP AROUND TO NORTHWEST FOR A TIME THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH IN TO THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER DEADHORSE AND KUPARUK AREAS WITH A COUPLE INCHES AS THE LOW MOVES JUST EAST OF THERE. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THAT COULD PILE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF EXPECTED. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CORRELATES WELL WITH THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. BAND OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST NOT MOVING MUCH AND NOT EXPECTING IT TO. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW COMPLEX REMAINING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT TIMING THEM WILL BE DIFFICULT. BROAD AREA OF MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. WITH THE LOW SYSTEM QUASI STATIONARY...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES NORTH OVER THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON THE COAST...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WINDS SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS TO 10 MPH. SOME COOLING OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWNS A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MIGHT GET A LITTLE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY HAD AROUND 100 LIGHTING STRIKES YESTERDAY AND THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE DIFFERENCE IS SOME MODIFICATION OF THAT AIRMASS COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THAT ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE. RIDGING OVER CANADA WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE INTERIOR AS PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. && .FIRE WEATHER...WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...THEN RIDGING OVER THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT SOME WINDS NEAR PASSES IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BUT ABOVE 30 PERCENT TUESDAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB APR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 021049 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 249 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2015 .DISCUSSION... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH 2/00Z MODEL SUITE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z ECWMF AND GFS IN THE EXTENDED...BUT THE ECWMF HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS WITH THE 2/00Z MODEL RUN. ALOFT...WEAK FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS ALASKA. WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR ICY CAPE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LOW 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE WEST AND OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN ALASKA COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY. OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR...A THERMAL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY...ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...TO NEAR CHICKEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY. NORTH SLOPE...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PERSISTS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST...STRATUS...FOG...AND SOME FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH SUNDAY. LIGHT FLOW WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERN ALASKA...MODIS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...KOTZEBUE SOUND AND IN THE BERING STRAIT. DENSE FOG HAS MANIFESTED IN KOTZEBUE SOUND...ALONG THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST THIS MORNING AND ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST. EXPECTING THIS FOG TO THIN THIS MORNING...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY MORNING. OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST...INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH GOING ON OVER THE AREA. A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL AND WARM SPRING DAYS ARE FORECAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIN RH WILL REMAIN NEAR 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WHERE MIN RH WILL DROP TO AS LOW AS 22 PERCENT. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ LTH MAY 15  FXAK69 PAFG 030932 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 132 AM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 60 OURS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 06Z. WILL JUST USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT DATABASE. ALOFT...552 DAM HIGH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND WEAKEN TO 552 DAM...THEN BE ABSORBED BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. A 542 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE. A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SPIT WITH A 553 CENTER MOVING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN SLIDES WEST. A 531 DAM LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA. A 520 DAM LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE 400 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS TUESDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. SURFACE...A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRIFT NORTH. A 1002 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA DRIVEN BY WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY. A 983 MB LOW NEAR ADAK WILL BE QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CHASING STRATUS WILL BE THE THEME...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE TO CHASE THE CHANGING HEIGHT...BECAUSE IT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE MORNINGS EAST OF BARROW WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE DEALT WITH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE EAST OF BARROW BY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST TO THE EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY. MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG THAT HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS SOME STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY SHORTWAVE OVER BROOKS RANGE MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING BY TUESDAY OVER THE LOWER YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM DELTAS WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. A RAPIDLY MOVING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA INTO THE BERING STRAIT ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXPECTED. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...DEVELOPMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH AS WE GET INTO THE WEEK WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR WEATHER IN THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AFTER ONE LAST DRY DAY AND THIS WILL HELP INJECT MOISTURE INTO THE INTERIOR CREATING A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT EAST WINDS IN THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGING FROM CANADA WILL BE PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST AND LINGER OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AREA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND NORTHWEST ARCTIC. THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST IN SOME FORM. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS A LITTLE TODAY AND WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE AS WELL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STILL NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED. FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY TONIGHT THEN GOOD RECOVERY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY...SLOW BREAKUP CONTINUES...BUT THAT CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY. OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO WATCH THE YUKON RIVER AND WILL BE FLYING RIVER WATCH MISSIONS OVER THE UPPER YUKON AROUND EAGLE AGAIN TODAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB MAY 15  FXAK69 PAFG 042255 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 255 PM AKDT MON MAY 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK...THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION. OTHERWISE...STRATUS/FOG ISSUES ON THE NORTH SLOPE...WARMING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR...AS WELL AS HIT AND MISS FOG/STRATUS ALONG THE WESTERN ALASKA COAST. MODELS...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS...THEREAFTER THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MID/LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS BECOME APPARENT. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...NUDGED A BLEND OF THE MODELS AGAINST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALOFT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FILL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TOMORROW...SQUASHING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WEDNESDAY. REGARDING H850 TEMPERATURES...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER MAINLAND ALASKA...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MAINLAND ALASKA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECWMF ARE FORECASTING +7C TO +9C H850 TEMPERATURES. SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNDEFINED AS IT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH. A SURFACE HIGH STRETCHES FROM THE NEW SIBERIAN ISLANDS EAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND WILL NOSE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THE 986 LOW 250 NM SOUTH OF ATKA SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. WESTERN ALASKA...FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE WEST COAST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS STILL FLOATING OUT IN THE BERING STRAIT AND BERING SEA PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST AND THE MODIS/SPORT 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. NORTH SLOPE...FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ON THE NORTH SLOPE. AS WAS PREVIOUSLY STATED IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ENTRENCHED ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE SINCE THERE ARE NO STRONG FEATURES TO FORCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE FOG/STRATUS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WEDNESDAY AND WILL GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE NORTH. EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW OR EVEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY LOW...AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN LACKLUSTER. AS THE RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SETUP WARMING THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTH AND WILL BE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS HELP ENHANCE GAP FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL CROSS SECTIONS FOR BROAD PASS...ISABEL PASS AND MENTASTA PASS...USING THE 12Z NAM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE PASSES WEDNESDAY MORNING...TO 20 TO 30 KTS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING...SUBSIDING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. DIVERGENCE IS SEEN ALOFT WHICH ADDS CREDENCE TO THE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES. MANY INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO BE LIFTED WHICH IS INDICATED BY THE THETA E ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY THE CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ON WED THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND CONTINUED DRYING WILL BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH WILL ENHANCE GAP FLOW WINDS. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER MANY AREAS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. && .HYDROLOGY... THE LATEST RIVER REPORT FROM EAGLE THIS MORNING...REPORTS THAT THE ICE STARTED TO MOVE OVERNIGHT AND STOPPED ONE MILE UPSTREAM OF EAGLE. RIVER WATCH MISSION IS STILL ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER YUKON...SO NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES YET. OTHERWISE...BREAK UP REMAINS TO BE QUIET SO FAR THIS SEASON. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ DISCUSSION/HYDROLOGY...LTH FIRE WEATHER...CF MAY 15  FXAK69 PAFG 051127 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 327 AM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH MAJOR FEATURES WITHIN A COUPLE MB. A LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. SO WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THE RIDGE WILL ROTATE BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH 551 DAM CENTER OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOVING OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA AS THE CENTER MERGES WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC. A 515 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL ROTATE EAST TO NORTH OF BARROW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A 518 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 400 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OVER CANADA BY SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL ENTRENCH ITSELF NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. A VIGOROUS LITTLE 1020 MB LOW NORTH BARTER ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST DRAGGING A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE TODAY. RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF GAP WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 990 MB LOW SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE NORTH TO KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. A 1008 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVES TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THE STRATUS TO REMAIN AND AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH ON THE MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS...BUT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 05/0715Z CLEARLY INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTH TO EAST AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE EAST INTO CANADIAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 20 MPH...BUT MAY BE UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF DEADHORSE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...REMAINS QUIET TODAY...BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT A BETTER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A STRONGER LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN ZONE 227. WITH THAT EXCEPTION WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION FROM FAIRBANKS NORTHEAST TODAY AS A VIGOROUS LITTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORTWAVE BRINGS GOOD UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS WITH IT. STILL PRETTY DRY AT THE SURFACE SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TAPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORMS...IF THEY OCCUR WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. WITH IT BEING DRY AT THE SURFACE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BE LESS THAN 15 MPH TODAY. STRONGER WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE STRENGTHENS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE RANGE WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS SO VERY GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...PER NORMAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CONSENSUS. RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO CANADA AND A LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SPREADING RAIN FROM FAIRBANKS NORTH. MODELS NOW MAKING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR. MODELS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE YESTERDAY AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY ISSUE RED FLAG WARNINGS SOMETIME TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE VERY LEAST HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TO BE POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...REPORTED THAT THE ICE MOVED AT EAGLE TODAY BUT STOPPED NEAR THE OLD VILLAGE OF EAGLE. VIIRS APRFC RIVER ICE AREAL EXTENT PRODUCT AT 04/2117Z INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THE YUKON RIVER REMAINS MIXED ICE AND WATER DOWN TO AT LEAST TANANA. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MANY AREAS. RIVER WATCH MISSION TODAY WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE UPPER YUKON BETWEEN THE FORT YUKON AND EAGLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAY 15  FXAK69 PAFG 062141 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 141 PM AKDT WED MAY 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. UNLIKE WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COOLED A BIT A H850 FOR FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR BY A FEW DEGREES CELSIUS. BESIDE FOR THAT CHANGE AMONG THE MODELS...GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE BEING PUSHED EAST AND OVER CANADA THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW LOCATED 500 MILES SOUTH OF UNALASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. FROM THIS UPPER LOW...A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED NORTHWARD FROM THIS EASTWARD MOVING LOW...MOVING OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACHING THE ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TREK...IT WILL SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS...ONE OVER BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER ROUGHLY 800 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL ROTATE NORTH AND STRENGTHEN...AND APPROACH THE THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A LOW OVER SIBERIA AND GRAZE THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND ANOTHER ON SATURDAY. SURFACE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER YUKON VALLEY TO OVER FAIRBANKS...AND EAST TO EAGLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK 1003 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE YUKON DELTA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FORCING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE HIGH STRETCHING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL BE SPLIT BY A SOUTHWARD MOVING LOW TONIGHT. WESTERN ALASKA...MORNING IMAGES FROM THE MODIS SPORT MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND VICINITY AND BERING STRAIT NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND VICINITY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE REPORTED VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES THIS MORNING...WITH DENSE FOG BEING REPORTED AROUND KOTZEBUE SOUND. THIS AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST. BOTH THE BETHEL AND NOME RADARS HAVE PICKED UP ON SOME SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE MOISTURE IS FORCED NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS. SOME CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER ZONES 216 AND 227 FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY...BUT ITS NOT LIKELY GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER. NORTH SLOPE...IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...CLEARING SKIES AND FOG DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRATUS AND FOG WILL RETURN IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. STRATUS AND FOG WILL LINGER ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ANOTHER COUPLE OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS ARE ON TAP AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE AREA. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND A SOUTHERLY CHINOOK DEVELOPING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES. THIS COMBINED WITH ALREADY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ADD TO THE CONCERN FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS. INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE ARCTIC COAST. && .FIRE WEATHER... A THERMAL TROUGH WILL FORM JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THU. THIS WILL ALSO CREATE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONES 223 225 AND 226. SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY IN THOSE SAME AREAS. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUIET BREAK UP CONTINUES. OPEN LEADS AND SHIFTING ICE NEAR NATION RIVER ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT OPEN WATER NEAR CIRCLE REPORTED FROM THE RIVER WATCH FLIGHT OVER THE UPPER YUKON LATE THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM OBSERVERS AND SPOTTERS ALONG THE TANANA AND YUKON RIVERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WATER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226. && $$ DISCUSSION/HYDRO...LTH FIRE WEATHER...JB/LTH MAY 15  FXAK69 PAFG 050926 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 126 AM AKDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THEY ARE CLUSTERED WELL IN THE FIRST 84 HOURS OF THE MODEL RUN. SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BEYOND THAT IN THE HANDLING OF A LOW OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND WHETHER OR NOT RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THEY HANDLE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST SIMILAR TODAY...BUT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS NOT GETTING THE SAME TREATMENT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SHADOWING OUT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NONE...SO WILL LEAN MORE ON THE WAY THE NAM IS HANDLING IT FOR NOW. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH A 577 DAM HIGH OVER WAINWRIGHT AND A 590 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL BUILD A BIT TO EXTEND WEST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TODAY AS THE 577 DAM CENTER MERGES INTO THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL SLIP A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS 2 LOWS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MERGE INTO A 531 DAM LOW AND SPIN A SHORTWAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY MONDAY EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW TO OVER CAPE ROMANZOF TO TALKEETNA TO NORTHWAY BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND FROM THE LOW TO GAMBELL TO OLD CROW BY LATE TUESDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ANOTHER 3 TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT. ANOTHER SURGE IN WARM AIR WITH THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL PUSH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 15 DEGREES CELSIUS...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND NORTON SOUND REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 10 CELSIUS RANGE. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM GALENA TO DAWSON YUKON THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON RIVER AND FLATS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SURGES NORTHWEST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER VALLEY. WEATHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY WILL BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE MONDAY EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME GAP WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING WILL LAY DOWN BY LATE MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS TO THE RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO REACH 50 MPH...AND THEY WILL TAPER DOWN BY AROUND NOON ON TUESDAY TO GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 04/0655Z SHOWING THE CLEARLY DEFINED CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA BUTTING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THAT PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO STRATUS OR FOG DETECTED NEAR ANY OF THE COASTAL AREAS. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...VERY NICE DAY AHEAD ACROSS THE ARCTIC. MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE NO STRATUS TO CAUSE ANY HAVOC IN THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST DRIFTS OFF INTO CANADA AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST...OFFSHORE IN MOST AREAS...FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS MONDAY. SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST ON TUESDAY AS A DECAYING FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY IN THE 60S ON THE COAST WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S TO MID 80S. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WARMER AND DRIER OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON...KOBUK...AND NOATAK VALLEYS TODAY. WEATHER FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST TONIGHT AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND TO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND MOST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME EMBEDDED AS THERE ARE SOME NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SHOWING UP IN THE MIDDLE YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM AREAS. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THEN TURN TO SOUTHWEST IN THE INTERIOR AREAS AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. COASTAL WINDS WILL KICK UP A BIT TO 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY TODAY AND MONDAY. NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A PRETTY GOOD CAP ALOFT AND OTHER CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE RANGE THIS MORNING WITH GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AROUND THE THERMAL TROUGH...TO AROUND 25 MPH. MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON WHICH SIDE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH YOU ARE ON...SO AROUND FAIRBANKS EXPECT SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND THE NORMAL LIGHT NORTHEAST DIURNAL WINDS TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF GAP WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE ON MONDAY NIGHT...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE STRONGER THAN 50 MPH RIGHT NOW...WILL HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT LOOK AT IT. TOUGH CALL ON SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA SINCE SOME OF IT WILL BE SHADOWED OUT BY THE ALASKA RANGE...THEN REFORM TO THE NORTH OF TOWN. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE FLOW DIRECTION MORE SOUTH...NOT MUCH FOR SHOWERS...MORE WEST THEN MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...LOW OVER THE BERING SEA IS PERSISTENT AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...SO LOOKING FOR MORE OF WHAT WE HAVE NOW...WHICH IS A FEW DAYS OF WARM THEN A DAY OF SHOWERS. CONVECTIVE INDICES LOOK GOOD IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS IS QUITE A WAS OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE TO MAKE THAT CALL. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRYING WITH THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 MPH INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BRING NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT FUELS REMAIN A BIT TOO WET FOR SIGNIFICANT BURNING. THAT COULD CHANGE MONDAY...SO WILL BE TAKING A HARD LOOK AT FUEL CONDITIONS LATER TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE INTERIOR AFTER LAST WEEKS RAINS WITH MOST OF THEM LEVELING BACK TO NORMAL FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB JUL 15  FXAK69 PAFG 061049 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 249 AM AKDT MON JUL 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. RUN TO RUN THEY HAVE SHOWN GREAT CONSISTENCY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA MUCH BETTER TODAY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NAM IS DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION AND THE RAIN SHADOWING IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR BETTER. WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR AREAS EAST OF TANANA...WITH A BLEND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE HALF OF THE STATE WITH THE AXIS LYING OVER CORDOVA TO BARROW THIS MORNING WITH 576 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ROTATE TO THE EAST WITH THE AXIS MOVING TO LIE FROM THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS TO DAWSON AND OVER DEADHORSE AND 570 DAM HEIGHTS RETREATING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. TWO 540 DAM LOWS OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MERGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING AND A SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO LIE FROM THE LOW 533 DAM LOW SOUTHEAST OVER DUTCH HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FROM THE LOW NOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER CAPE ROMANZOF AND EAST OVER THE COOPER RIVER BASIN TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW TO LIE OVER THE BERING STRAIT TO AMBLER BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND A 570 DAM HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC AND BUILD SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC. A 544 DAM LOW IN THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER BANKS ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING TO THE WEST APPROACHES THE ARCTIC COAST...AND MOVES OVER THE COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRAGGING TO THE EAST. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES PEAK LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AT AROUND 18 CELSIUS AND OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AT AROUND 14 CELSIUS...THEN TREND DOWN TO AROUND 8 CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 2 CELSIUS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM GALENA TO EAGLE THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AROUND A 982 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. A DECAYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND PUSH SOUTH TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING WILL LIE FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO BETHEL TO COLD BAY MOVING TO LIE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO KALTAG TO SEWARD THIS EVENING...AND FROM POINT HOPE TO FAIRBANKS TO CHISANA BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO OLD CROW YUKON AS THE FRONTS MERGE. SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/0738Z HAS SOME STRATUS IN THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. ALSO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. DO NOT SEE THEM IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL FORECAST AREAS...BUT WILL ADD IT INTO THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ON THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM...BUT THAT WILL CHANGE PRETTY DRASTICALLY BY MID WEEK AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE. HIGHS IN THE 60S ON THE COAST AND HIGHS ON THE ARCTIC PLAIN REACHING THE 80S. MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN TODAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS SOUTH OF KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY AND OVER THE WHOLE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. COASTAL WINDS WILL 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH 15 TO 30 MPH WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. INLAND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS...WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PULLING SMOKE OUT OF THE INTERIOR TO COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY WARM AND DRY WITH WINDS INCREASING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES. RED FLAGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY AND THEY LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS. AREAS WITH HEAVIER SMOKE CONDITIONS WILL BE A FEW DEGREE COOLER. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH A GOOD CAP STILL PRESENT AND PRETTY BENIGN CONVECTIVE INDICES. GUSTY WINDS PICKING UP IN THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 45 MPH. THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT EXPECT IT WILL SKIP OVER THE AREA FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND REFORM NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...WARMER AND DRIER TODAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE IN ZONES 223...225 AND 226 AS WINDS GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH NEAR PASSES. A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 30 PERCENT OR LESS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WITH THE FRONT OUT WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE THERMAL TROUGH. && .HYDROLOGY...HIGHEST PRECIPITATION VALUES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGES AND ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN WILL FALL IN THOSE AREAS...BUT RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THOSE AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH RESPONSE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ221. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JUL 15  FXAK69 PAFG 071055 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 255 AM AKDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZATION WELL VS 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE CHANGED A BIT ON THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND NORTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN ALL THE MODELS IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH MORE OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. WILL USE THE NAM AS THE BASE FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH A NUDGE TO THE SREF TO GET PROBABILITIES UP A BIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE LIES FROM HIGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER SITKA TO BURWASH LANDING YUKON TO FORT YUKON TO BARROW AND NORTH THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BUILD A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST AND LIE FROM YAKUTAT TO WAINWRIGHT BY LATE EVENING...THEN FROM CORDOVA TO WAINWRIGHT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE COL WILL COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. A 530 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT AS A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A 532 DAM LOW JUST SOUTH OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA SWINGS A SHORTWAVE SOUTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE. AT 850 HPA...COOLING HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE STATE AND TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AND WET COAST WILL FALL AROUND 5 CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE ON THE NORTH SLOPE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL UP TO 10 CELSIUS. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH LIES NORTHWAY TO FAIRBANKS TO HUSLIA TO TELLER THIS MORNING AND WILL BE SHOVED NORTH TODAY BY THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT LIES FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO UNALAKLEET TO MCGRATH TO ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM KOTZEBUE SOUND TO ALLAKAKET TO EAGLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. FROM MANLEY HOT SPRINGS WEST STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE SEEING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH NEAR AN INCH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FROM MANLEY WEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SHOWERY WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AREAS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE EAST OF THE PARK AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DELTA JUNCTION TO CHICKEN WILL BE MOSTLY SHADOWED OUT. SOME GAP FLOW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING DOWN. SATELLITE...SPORT MICROPHYSICS MODIS AT 06/821Z HAS SOME STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...WHICH MAY BE SMOKE...AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE GOES MVFR/IFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM THE STRATUS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...BUT NOT INDICATING THE STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. MODIS TRUE COLOR FROM MONDAY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SMOKE COVERING MOST OF NORTHWEST ALASKA...THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ARCTIC...MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND AREAS NORTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION IN THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COOLING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE STRATUS AND FOG TO MOST COASTAL AREAS. WINDS EAST OF WAINWRIGHT ON THE COAST INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE EAST. WINDS FROM POINT LAY SOUTH EAST THIS MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THEM. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALONG THE COAST A RECURRING THEME SETTING UP AS LOW OVER THE BERING SEA REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY AND WAVE SPIN AROUND THE LOW AND OVER THE COAST. BANDS OF RAIN WILL PROVIDE SOME WETTING RAINS OVER MOST OF THE COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY. HEAVIEST RAINS IN ZONES 208 AND 217 BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY FLOODING ISSUES. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF TANANA...RAIN FROM TANANA WEST...WITH SOME SHADOWING NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION. SOME GAP WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S. SMOKE MOVING AROUND WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...NO CHANGE FROM WHAT IT WAS LOOKING LIKE YESTERDAY...A RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. WEAK INFLUX OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME WEAK COOLING ALOFT...THE COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A MORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE TODAY IN THE INTERIOR AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UP ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WINDS NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL TAPER DOWN TO LESS THAN 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON THE ARCTIC SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL LET FIRE FOLKS KNOW ABOUT THAT THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS START FALLING TONIGHT BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SO NOT MUCH POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...BIG CHANGE IN MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS NOW PLACING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ALMOST AN INCH ARE EXPECTED. DO NOT EXPECT A RESPONSE IN MOST RIVER AND STREAMS...BUT SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS COULD BECOME BANKFULL FOR A SHORT TIME. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ221- AKZ222. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUL 15  FXAK69 PAFG 122130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 130 PM AKDT SUN JUL 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... ALOFT AT 500 MB...THE 547 DAM LOW LOCATED OVER 75N AND 147W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND DEVELOP A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOPING INTO A 548 DAM LOW BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF TRYING TO FORM AN UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE AS THE GFS DOES DEVELOP A LOW BUT ROUGHLY 12 HOURS LATER. IN EITHER CASE THIS WILL BRING SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MARINE AND OFF SHORES MARINE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. FOR THE INTERIOR...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FROM A COUPLE EASTERLY WAVES WHICH IS BASICALLY ROTATING ENERGY AROUND A DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT DEVELOPS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH ONE LOW SOUTH OF PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WE ALREADY HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AS THE WEAK RIDGE GETS PUSHED NORTHWARD. THE STRONGEST EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR FIRE SITUATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR EXTENDING FROM EAGLE TO GALENA WITH THE SURFACE LOW 0F 998 MB LOCATED OVER THE TANANA BASIN THIS EVENING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES 1002MB OVER FORTY MILE COUNTY BY MID MORNING. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY MORNING EXTENDING FROM A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TOWARD HUSLIA AND THEN DEVELOP INTO A 999 MB LOW AROUND BETTLES. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY DIMINISHES AS A 1001 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW WITH STRATUS AND DENSE FOG REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HAVE PLACED DENSE FOG HEADLINES FOR AREAS FROM BARROW EASTWARD ALONG THE BEAUFORT COAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF DRIZZLE THAT CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. BY MONDAY THE WINDS WILL START TO SEE WIND SHIFT ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM EASTERLY TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE BROAD AREA LOW NEAR BETTLES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE BRINGING INCREASES PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO THE AREA LATER IN WEEK. WESTERN COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MISSING THE SATELLITE VIIRS IMAGERY...BUT STILL ABLE TO UTILIZE THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT FROM MODIS IN THE LATE MORNING WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT MOVED ALONG THE KOTZEBUE AREA. HOWEVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH GREATEST CHANCES EXTENDING FROM ANVIK TO RUBY. DENSE SMOKE LINGERED ACROSS SMILIER AREA AROUND RUBY THROUGH NOON TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE SMOKE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO INCREASE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 2 MILES IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MIXING THROUGH THE DAY AND ADDED SHOWERS WILL HELP...RUBY STILL REMAINS AT HALF MILE AS OF 1 PM. THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PEDRO DOME RADAR WITH LIGHTING STRIKES WITH THE STORM JUST SOUTHEAST OF STEVENS VILLAGE AND SOME WITH THE STORMS LOCATED BETWEEN MCGRATH AND GALENA. EXPECTED COVERAGE TO EXPAND FROM ALASKA RANGE TO FAIRBANKS TO FORTY MILE COUNTRY TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOP JUST NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS ON THE RADAR. THE STORM LOCATED NEAR THE AGGIE WILDFIRE HAD SOME RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORM CELL. WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE INCREASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM MCGRATH TO NORTHEAST OF CIRCLE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO A QUARTER INCH WITH HALF AN INCH WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NAM MODEL SUGGEST HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE BUT OTHER MODELS ARE LESS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...EXPECT GENERAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES...WITHIN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO CIRCLE. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .FIRE WEATHER... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN. THE THERMAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINING DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES EXTENDING ACROSS AN AREA FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO CIRCLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER POCKET AMOUNTS WITH STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. && .HYDROLOGY... DO NOT EXPECT ANY RISE IN THE RIVERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MAY SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN THE CREEKS ESPECIALLY WITH THE EASTERLY WAVE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODELS GENERALLY EXPECTING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER POCKETS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS WERE HINTING THAT THIS WOULD FALL IN THE UPPER PORTIONS KUSKOKWIM RIVER BASINS AS WELL AS THE CHATANIKA...CHENA..AND SALCHA RIVER BASINS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ221-AKZ227. && $$ MAK JUL 15  FXAK69 PAFG 031018 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 218 AM AKDT MON AUG 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS BEFORE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ON THE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO AROUND 577 DAM. FAST TRACKING ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ARCTIC HAS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE THE CORRECT TIMING FOR THEM SO WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF PRIMARILY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TIMING AND THE GFS FOR AMOUNTS. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC THAT HAS A 526 DAM LOW 200NM NORTHWEST OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA AND A 542 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND. THE ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WHEN A TROUGH STARTS DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY TO THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WITH A 555 DAM LOW OVER ANAKTUVUK PASS WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 552 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS THE 579 DAM HIGH OVER ST MICHAEL MOVES EAST OVER ANVIK THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER LAKE MINCHUMINA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WEST TO A 577 DAM HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND AT 574 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND A 1006 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING EAST FROM A 1028 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO A 1021 MB HIGH OVER DELTA JUNCTION THIS MORNING. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. A FRONT WILL LIE WEST TO EAST OVER THE ARCTIC WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING RAIN TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY THEN EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY WITH IT LETTING UP A BIT TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WEATHER FRONT LIES WEST TO EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW SHOWERS IN THE BROOKS RANGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC INCLUDING THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY. AS THE FRONT WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH A BIT THE WINDS OVER THE COAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BY LATE TUESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW IN THE COASTAL AREAS WILL BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...AND SOME DRIZZLE AT TIMES...TO THE BERING STRAIT AND AREAS SOUTH. INLAND AREAS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL BE CLEARING TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS GENERALLY WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH QUITE A FEW AREAS REACHING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE AND IN THE INTERIOR...BUT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND WARMER...SO THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE FIRES TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MID WEEK THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS IN THE INTERIOR. && .HYDROLOGY...SOME GOOD RAINS EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY PROBLEMS IN ANY OF THE DRAINAGES. && .SATELLITE...NOT ABLE TO SEE MUCH OVER THE ARCTIC ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z AS HIGH CLOUDS MASK THE AREA...BUT THE GOES MVFR/IFR SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME AND 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCTS AT 03/0802Z SHOWING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER NORTON SOUTH AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE INTERIOR EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE ALASKA RANGE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB AUG 15  FXAK69 PAFG 041052 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 252 AM AKDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN HAS BEEN GOOD WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS THIS RUN. MODELS ARE REALLY HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME FIGURING OUT WHAT TO DO WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE STATE BEYOND THAT...BUT THERE ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN MOVING IT EAST IS ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. GFS LOOKS A LITTLE OVER FORECAST WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS USUAL AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE UNDER FORECAST...SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT BY LATE TONIGHT. 524 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THE TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MERGING WITH A 549 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE WHOLE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THE MARCH EAST TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY WILL BE PUSHED OUT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE AREA. A 534 DAM LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE...RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH RIDGING BUILDING EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AS SURFACE RIDGE IS PUSHED EAST AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY...RAIN...LOW CLOUDS...AREAS OF FOG...AND WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS FRONT HANGS OVER THE AREA. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL REACH NORTHWEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSH THE MAIN PRECIPITATION A BIT FURTHER SOUTH SO THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN AND NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY...BUT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING THURSDAY AS A HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC BRINGS SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WEST OF DEADHORSE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT TURN NORTHERLY BY LATE TODAY BRINGING A REPRIEVE FROM THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS AROUND NORTON SOUND. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE END OF IT THOUGH AS THE CHANGE IN WINDS WILL JUST PUSH THE STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND COAST AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. WEST WINDS BECOMING NORTH...GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH AND DRAGS SOME COOLER ARCTIC AIR WITH IT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXPECT SOME CLOUDS OVER AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE CREST OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THEN COOLING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ALMOST 15 DEGREES COOLER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY...THEN AS FRONT MOVES TO THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ALCAN AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE FRIDAY. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...PRETTY QUIET AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY COULD BRING A FEW FIRES BACK TO LIFE. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. COOLER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RISING STARTING WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS. && .HYDROLOGY...SOME SLIGHT RISES ON THE GAUGES ON THE ARCTIC RIVERS...BUT NOT MUCH AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO RISE MUCH MORE IF ANY. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED IN ANY DRAINAGES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .SATELLITE...STRATUS VISIBLE ON THE SPORT MODIS RGB PRODUCTS AT 04/0707Z ON THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND IN THE UPPER KOBUK. SPOTTED A INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT BAND PRODUCT AT 04/0029Z JUST NORTHEAST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORTEX IN THE STRATUS LEAVING A LITTLE CLEAR HOLE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  FXAK69 PAFG 050951 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 151 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUES TO BE GOOD. 00Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AT 06Z. BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS IN OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE TODAY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY. WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY FOR PRECIPITATION FORECAST. ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO CONTINUES TO DIG IN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A 553 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR YESTERDAY GETS SQUEEZED OUT WITH SOME WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH BACK OVER THE AREA WITH 561 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 533 DAM WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES OVER BARROW AT 533 DAM WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KOTZEBUE AND ST MATTHEW ISLAND. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER AMBLER AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A 1029 MB CENTER EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO A 1022 MB CENTER IN THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL TILT MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THE HIGH IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1021 MB. A 1004 MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AT 996 MB...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO BE 250 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. A CONVERGENT AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE FROM DEADHORSE TO FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION THURSDAY. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW IN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO AMBLER TO NOME BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS THE HIGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES TO JUST NORTHEAST OF BARROW. AS IT MOVES EAST WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST EAST OF BARROW AS THE HIGH MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE HIGH ARCTIC. SOME CLEARING TODAY WEST OF BARROW WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES EAST RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF BARROW WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE AS UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ON THE NORTHWEST COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT IT. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOTS OF STRATUS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND KOTZEBUE SOUNDS...AND THE BERING STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE ALONG THE COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SPREADING SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF NORTH OF KIVALINA ON THE COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT IT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INTERESTING FORECAST TODAY. MOST OF IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE CONVERGENT ZONE AND THERMAL TROUGH ARE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TO BE EAST OF FAIRBANKS TODAY...BUT THE AREA COULD SET UP OVER FAIRBANKS TO BEGIN WITH. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM COLDFOOT TO FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION ON THURSDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY...THEN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. WINDS REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS MANAGED TO GET BELOW 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN TODAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS KICKED OUT OF THE INTERIOR. SOME WINDS IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT SO NO RED FLAG ISSUES. GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE FIRES TO KICK BACK UP. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR NEW STARTS...MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 05/0750Z CLEARLY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND KOTZEBUE SOUNDS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  FXAK69 PAFG 052215 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 115 PM AKST SAT DEC 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THINGS WELL OF LATE AND INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS OVER THE ARCTIC SINCE THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY BEYOND 132 HOURS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN INTO CANADA BY LATE EVENING. 507 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. A 501 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH THE AXIS LYING FROM WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO BETHEL TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM WHITEHORSE TO ANCHORAGE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN FROM DAWSON TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY TUESDAY MORNING. A 513 DAM LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST NEAR SITKA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER YAKUTAT BY MONDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST. A 507 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MONDAY AND MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WITH A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC AND A 958 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A LOW COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL CENTERS WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. A 964 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE UP THE COAST TO NEAR SITKA BY MONDAY MORNING. A 964 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 949 MB...AND TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO BARTER ISLAND. ARCTIC COAST...THE BIG QUESTION HERE IS IF AND POSSIBLY WHEN THE STRATUS WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE COAST...WITH NO OPEN WATER IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE STRATUS WILL HOLD OFF UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING THAT BRINGS IT INTO THE AREA. A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE COAST...SHOWS UP FAIRLY WELL ON THE 05/0826Z MODIS SPORT 25HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT...MAY BRING SOME STRATUS TO THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANYTHING THAT WILL LAST FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATOCUMULUS THAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE GOES13 IR THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE ARCTIC...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY BROKEN UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL APART THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS UP A BIT. MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH...THOUGH SOME GUST WINDS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL CONTINUE NEAR PASSES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS FLOATING AROUND...BUT NOT MUCH ORGANIZED OVER THE AREA. A PRETTY INTERESTING AREA OF BLACK STRATUS SHOWING UP THAT EXTENDS FROM AROUND LAKE ILLIAMNA NORTH OVER MCGRATH AND TANANA HAS DEVELOPED AND CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURE WHAT IS CAUSING THIS...BUT IT SHOWS UP PRETTY GOOD ON THE GOES13 IR AND LOOKS LIKE IT REALLY STARTED DEVELOPING ON THE 05/1030Z IMAGE. NOT SURE WHAT THE EVOLUTION OF THE STRATUS WILL BE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT CONTINUES TO EXPAND SO WILL KEEP IT OVER THE MCGRATH AND VICINITY AND SOUTHERN ZONE 216 FOR THE NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL. THE STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THAT EXTENDS NORTH FROM AROUND LAKE ILLIAMNA CONTINUES TO EXPAND...SO WILL MAINTAIN IT OVER THE AREA TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS...BUT NOT SURE WHAT THE EVOLUTION OF IT WILL BE SO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS IT COULD MOVE OVER PART OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH CLOUDY AREAS MUCH WARMER THAT CLEAR AREAS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB DEC 15  FXAK69 PAFG 061100 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 300 AM AKDT THU AUG 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...FEW HOURS SLOW IN MOVING THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR EAST ON INITIALIZATION AT 06Z...BUT OVERALL THEY HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD THE LAST FEW RUNS. GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID RANGE. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE HAS COME INTO PHASE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER KOMAKUK BEACH YUKON TO GLENNALLEN BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND OUT OF THE STATE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM BRISTOL BAY TO NORTH OF BARROW THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM KODIAK ISLAND TO EAGLE TO BARTER ISLAND AND NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA...WHILE WEAK RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 532 DAM WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES TO 150 NM NORTH OF BARROW AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KOTZEBUE AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. BY MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 300 NM NORTH OF CAPE HALKETT WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER AMBLER AND NUNIVAK ISLAND. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH BEING SHOVED INTO THE YUKON THIS MORNING. RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE FROM A 1020 MB HIGH 100 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY TO A 1022 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIE FROM THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO NUNIVAK ISLAND TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 998 MB 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO BE 150 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY OFFSHORE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST...FLOW TO THE WEST OF DEADHORSE AND ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST. AS HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD EAST AND STRENGTHEN A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF...BUT AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TODAY IT WILL PUSH A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SPREADING RAIN AS FAR EAST AS BARROW BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. THE LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME MODERATE SURF TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT EROSION. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT TONIGHT IT LOOKS QUIET TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST SLOWLY. WINDS TO 30 MPH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF A LINE FROM CHALKYITSIK TO BIRCH LAKE AND SOUTH. EXPECT THEM TO SETTLE DOWN A LITTLE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY SOUTH OF AMERICAN SUMMIT. REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN SPREAD OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES TODAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...MOST AREAS REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 MPH SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS TODAY OR FRIDAY. EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE. QUITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO MAY SEE A FEW FIRES START UP IN ZONES 220 AND 223. && .HYDROLOGY...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO RIVERS WILL REMAIN STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY. && .SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 06/0843Z IDENTIFYING A LOT OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC AND IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PRODUCT. LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE...BUT STRATIFIED DECK OF CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE AREA. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  FXAK69 PAFG 062237 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 137 PM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUED QUIET OVER THE STATE BUT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SOME DEVIATION AS THEY GO INTO THE MID TERM. THE 12Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM THEN LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY MORNING. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO LIE FROM WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE AXIS MOVES TO LIE FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE EAST A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER BARROW WILL EXTEND SOUTH TO A 501 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR BANKS ISLAND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC. A 974 MB LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR SITKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND DISSIPATE NEAR CAPE SPENCER MONDAY AFTERNOON. A 968 MB LOW NEAR NIKOLSKI REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 964 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND MOVE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 952 MB...THEN SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TO BE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE...MODIS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 06/2055Z SHOWING SOME LARGE PATCHES OF STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC AS WELL AS THE MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF KALTAG. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE PATCH THAT HAS MOVES WEST OVER THE YUKON FLATS AND A PATCH THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. ARCTIC COAST...WITH THE WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHEN THE LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS ALREADY FLOATING AROUND BUT EXPECT THAT TO EXPAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 5 TO 20 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...MAINLY NORTH OF KALTAG AND NOT MOVING MUCH. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES UNLESS IT CLEARS OUT IN AREAS AND THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL PRETTY SHARPLY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA...AND STRATUS HAS MOVED OVER THE YUKON FLATS. SEE NO REASON FOR IT TO DISSIPATE. FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER WITH CLEAR AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP SHARPLY. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB DEC 15  FXAK69 PAFG 072119 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1219 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW UP AS WE MOVE PAST THE NEAR TERM. THEY CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM AND ARE COMING IN LINE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT EVEN THAT WILL BE A BIT PROBLEMATIC...WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND AS WELL AS DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING PATCHES. THE MODELS JUST DO NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO FORECAST THE STRATUS AND THE DYNAMICS IT CREATES. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE SINCE ANY CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR MAX COOLING. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA HAS MOVED OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 DAM...AND WILL WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO BE OVER BARROW AT 499 DAM TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO 493 DAM AS IT SITS OVER BARROW WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING AND CONNECTING UP WITH A 499 DAM LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE LIES FROM WATSON LAKE TO YAKUTAT TO ANVIK AND SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL WEAKEN TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THE AXIS MOVES TO LIE FROM DAWSON TO GALENA TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND LIE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A A WEAK RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 1002 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR BARROW REMAINS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS TROUGHING EXPANDS TO THE EAST AND A 999 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR MCKENZIE BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE...MODIS AND NPP VIIRS SPORT NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ESSENTIAL IN PINPOINTING THE STRATUS OVER THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS. PRODUCT AT 07/1534Z CLEARLY SHOWS THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR...NORTHWEST COAST...CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST...AND MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS THE SHREDS THAT ARE JUST FLOATING AROUND. SPORT PRODUCTS ARE GREAT TOOLS FOR TRACKING THE STRATUS. ARCTIC COAST...WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF NUIQSUT SO FAR. EXPECT IT TO EXPAND TO THE EAST...BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN TO SAY THE LEAST. QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE CLOUDY BY LATE EVENING WITH SOME FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS AS THE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS PERSISTS AND STEADY OR RISING TO THE EAST AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO...DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS BUT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING ALONG THE EDGES A BIT. EXPECT SOME CLEARING...BUT SHREDS OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OR FLOAT THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME FLURRIES. NOT EXPECTING THE STRATUS TO REDEVELOP...BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE IT COULD. SOME WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER YUKON AND AROUND NORTON SOUND WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR THE LOWER YUKON COAST. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER ON THE LOWER YUKON..INLAND AREAS WITH STRATUS WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO FIGURE OUT AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COLDER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BE WARMER IF THEY REMAIN OR BECOME CLOUD COVERED. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE STRATUS REALLY DID A NUMBER ON THE TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WITH THE AREA MAINLY MUCH WARMER SINCE THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST TODAY IS JUST A DIFFICULT SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY IF IT CLEARS OUT. THERE IS NO INDICATION ON SATELLITE OR IN THE THE MODELS THAT IT WILL...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A WARMER FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220. && $$ SDB DEC 15  FXAK69 PAFG 122112 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1212 PM AKST THU NOV 12 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ONLY REAL DIFFERENCE IS IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE POSITIONS. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY USING A BLEND OF THE CURRENT DATABASE AND MODELS. WILL NUDGE THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UP A BIT WITH THE SREF. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH A A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BERING STRAIT. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM A 494 DAM LOW IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWEST OVER BARTER ISLAND TO GALENA. AS THE ARCTIC LOW SLOWLY MOVES WEST THE SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM OVER BARTER ISLAND TO DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY MORNING WITH A 500 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER DELTA JUNCTION. A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WHICH WILL BE JUST NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST THIS EVENING AND LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO KOTZEBUE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW OVER DELTA JUNCTION WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 504 DAM WHILE THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES TO LIE FROM BARTER ISLAND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO SLEETMUTE BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 499 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO YAKUTAT THIS EVENING SPINNING MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER DELTA JUNCTION FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE ENHANCED BY A TRANSITORY RIDGE THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN IS SHOVED SOUTH BY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SATURDAY. A 495 DAM LOW OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 20 BELOW BY LATE SATURDAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. SURFACE...963 MB LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OVER GUSTAVUS TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS TO 974 MB. THE LOW THEN SPLITS WITH A 981 MB LOW REGRESSING BACK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND A 981 MB LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. A 987 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY INTO SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE ARCTIC AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. MOISTURE WILL SWING NORTH AROUND THE LOW SPREADING SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THIS EVENING AND WEST OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AND NORTH TO THE YUKON RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING. A ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA AND WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A LOW OVER NORTHERN KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA THIS EVENING REMAINING OVER THE AREA...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER COLD BAY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS IMAGERY AT 12/1539Z SHOWS A PRETTY DISTINCT CLEARING LINE OVER THE ARCTIC. BARROW HAS CLEARED OUT AND IR SATELLITE INDICATES THE CLEARING LINE IS CONTINUING SLOWLY SOUTH AND IT LOOKS PRETTY CLEAR OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS FOR NOW...BUT THE NEXT WAVE WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT FLURRIES IN AREAS WITH CLOUDS WITH NO ACCUMULATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FOR THE ARCTIC COAST...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND BARTER ISLAND WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SINCE THERE IS SOME CLEARING GOING ON AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IF IT STAYS CLEAR. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BAND OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA...AND LOWER YUKON DELTA. SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MOVING EAST TOMORROW OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION. ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA COAST COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INLAND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER KOYUKUK RIVER IS KICKING OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECT IN THE INLAND AREAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TREND NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WINDS ON THE COAST TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 25 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND LOWER YUKON DELTA COASTS. INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOW IN THE GULF IS SPINNING MOISTURE UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE THE AREA THIS EVENING. SNOW IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IT MOVING NORTH AND WEST AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD YAKUTAT. SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND UPPER TANANA THIS EVENING THEN WEST OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP A BIT TO 2 TO 4 INCHES. FROM DELTA JUNCTION WEST SNOWFALL WILL TAPER FROM AROUND AN INCH TO TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURE UP A BIT...BUT WHEN IT CLEARS OUT AGAIN EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START FALLING AGAIN. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CURRENT GFS/ECMWF RUNS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT A MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STORM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA OR ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIBERIA COAST. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT COULD BEGIN ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY WEDNESDAY. A MODERATING TREND WILL OCCUR...BUT 1000-850 MB LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW IN THE INTERIOR AND MOST OR ALL OF THE WEST COAST. FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE EVOLUTION AND DETAILS OF THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. RF && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB NOV 15  FXAK69 PAFG 132148 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1248 PM AKST FRI NOV 13 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES. AFTER 12 HOURS WILL PRIMARILY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE NEW GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECASTS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY. FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE PERSISTENCE FOR MOST AREAS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM 497 DAM LOW 200 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND OVER ARCTIC VILLAGE TO DENALI PARK TO ILLIAMNA AND WILL MOVE INTO CANADA LATE THIS EVENING...A SECOND SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST OVER DEADHORSE TO AMBLER AND WILL ROTATE EAST TO LIE FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MINCHUMINA LATE THIS EVENING. THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM NORTHEAST OF DEADHORSE WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER HELMUT MOUNTAIN TO CENTRAL TO TALKEETNA BY SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOMING STATIONARY. A 500 DAM LOW IN SOUTHERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO 200 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THEN MOVE SOUTH AROUND 502 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER TANANA. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...978 MB LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THEN BE ABSORBED BY A 985 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND MOVES NEAR CORDOVA. THE LOW WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW IN SOUTHERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEAST TO THE PRIBILOFS BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW IN THE GULF. A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER MAINLAND ALASKA SATURDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY AT 12/1943Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AROUND THE LOW NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND AS WELL AS OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTHWEST COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MOVEMENT TO THE EAST IN THE STRATUS AROUND THE LOW...WITH NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OVER THE PLAINS AND NORTHWEST COAST BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC...THE LOW IS NOT MOVING SOON...SO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HANG AROUND. ON THE NORTHWEST COAST STRATUS WILL PERSIST...BUT EXPECT IT TO MOVE EAST INTO BARROW THIS AFTERNOON IF NOT SOONER AND TO NUIQSUT THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLOUDS...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE CHANGING MUCH...BUT EXPECT COLDER IF IT CLEARS OUT. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE EAST OF DEADHORSE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...ALL IN ALL PRETTY QUIET. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IF ANY. TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING...BUT NOT UNSEASONABLY COLD...AND WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT ON THE MOST WESTERN CAPES WHICH WILL SEE WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. ST LAWRENCE ISLAND COULD SEE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE ONLY 2 TO 4 INCHES AT MOST. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO FIGURE OUT WITH THE BENIGN PATTERN NOT MUCH IS MOVING AROUND SO AREAS MAY SEE FOG AND STRATUS HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...LOOKING LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS GOING TO HANG AROUND THE AREAS SO SPITTY FLURRIES AND PATCHY FOG WITH CONTINUE. LOW THAT SLUNG SOME SNOW OVER THE UPPER TANANA AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY IS MOVING OFF SO THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. WITH WEAK HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SOME CLEARING ON SATURDAY...BUT THE RIDGE IS PRETTY DIRTY SO WILL KEEP MOST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES UNLESS AN AREA CLEARS OUT ALLOWING FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL ALLOW THEM TO BOTTOM OUT. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK COULD PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS...BUT AT THIS TIME MODEL SPREAD IT TOO BIG SO LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220- PKZ225. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB NOV 15  FXAK69 PAFG 142125 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 125 PM AKDT FRI AUG 14 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF MAJOR FEATURES OVER THE ARCTIC AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID AND EXTENDED PERIODS...PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION A BIT MORE SINCE IS APPEARS TO BE MORE SEASONALLY CORRECT SO IT WILL BE THE MAJORITY OF ANY BLEND. PRECIPITATION WISE ALL THE MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SAME WAY SO WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A LEAN ON THE SREF FOR PROBABILITIES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE WITH 564 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LIES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER TODAY AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA. A SECOND BRANCH OF THE RIDGE LIES FROM SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND TO EASTERN NORTON SOUND THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...AND WILL SLIDE EAST TO LIE FROM YAKUTAT TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TO POINT HOPE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 564 DAM HEIGHT REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...THEN FROM DAWSON TO ATIGUN PASS TO POINT LAY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY INTO CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER THE BERING SEA TONIGHT AND LIE FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO SOUTHWEST KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN FROM MCGRATH TO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING WILL EXTEND EAST FROM THE LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN A COOLING TREND. ZERO ISOTHERM IS NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL MOVE SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT LAY TO NUIQSUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME STATIONARY...THEN SLIP SOUTH TO LIE FROM POINT LAY THEN ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO BARTER ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WEAK RIDGING WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND EXTEND EAST ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS SATURDAY. TROUGH WILL LIE FROM ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN EAST TO BETTLES AND SOUTHEAST TO DAWSON YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING...REMAINING RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. TROUGHING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SHOWERS ENDING TONIGHT...BUT STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTING OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A LITTLE COOLER BUT NOT EXPECTING FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL MONDAY/TUESDAY FOR THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM ATQASUK TO NUIQSUT. WINDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SURFACE LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SPREADING RAIN OR SHOWERS NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND EAST OVER THE LOWER YUKON SOUTH OF GALENA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE NEXT 36 HOURS OF AROUND 0.50 INCH. WINDS ON THE COAST GENERALLY OFFSHORE 5 TO 15 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...DIRTY RIDGE WILL KEEP A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A COOLING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF FAIRBANKS...SOUTH OF FORT YUKON...AND NORTH OF CHICKEN SATURDAY EVENING. && .SATELLITE...QUITE A BIT OF MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT FROM 14/1745Z...MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT...AND AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN MOST OF THE ARCTIC EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SINCE IT WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...QUIET. SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE...IF NOT WELL ABOVE...30 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXCELLENT RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SOUTH OF CHICKEN AND EAST OF THE TOK CUTOFF WHICH WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB AUG 15  FXAK69 PAFG 152233 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 133 PM AKST SUN NOV 15 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. NEAR TERM THROUGH 36 HOURS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. BEYOND THAT THEY START DIVERGING RAPIDLY ON POSITION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES WITH THE GFS MOVING THINGS EAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC AND CANADIAN MODELS...AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE CURRENT DATABASE AND MODELS FOR FIRST 36 TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY...AND LEAN TOWARD THE GFS WITH A BLEND FOR THE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. EXTENDED PERIODS WILL GET MORE INTERESTING AS THE MODELS SHOW BIGGER SPREADS AS WE MOVE INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PERIOD WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. A 506 DAM LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE YUKON. A 508 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE UPPER KOBUK BY MONDAY EVENING. A 498 DAM LOW ON THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME STATIONARY. A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN BUILD NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT DEEPENS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO CHIGNIK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES EAST AS I MASHES THE RIDGE DOWN A BIT AND WILL LIE FROM COLDFOOT TO CORDOVA BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES INTO THE YUKON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH AND COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND ARCTIC WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...COASTAL AREAS A BIT WARMER. AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID RANGE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START OVER THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...AND EVENTUALLY OVER MOST OF THE STATE. SURFACE...996 MB LOW NEAR YAKUTAT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A 988 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING. THE 988 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN INLAND OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. A 994 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ARCTIC WILL REMAIN WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR TUESDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY AT 15/1519Z SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WITH MORE NORTH OF THE COAST MOVING SOUTH. SO EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES OVER THE AREA WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. MAINLY FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NO BIG CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH WINDS EAST OF BARROW WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH A LOW DEVELOPING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT OVERALL PRETTY QUIET THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. MID WEEK WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL SEND SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL ISSUES...BUT WILL WATCH IT CLOSELY SINCE A SMALL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THE LOWS COULD BRING BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST. A FEW FLURRIES OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL BE ABOUT IT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS ST LAWRENCE AND TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TUESDAY EVENING...THEN TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS LIGHT WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS MONDAY EVENING. CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BREAKING UP. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AND THOSE WILL MAINLY BE INDUSTRIAL TYPE FLURRIES...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE CLOUDY AREAS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE WEST COAST AS THE NEXT FEW SYSTEMS MOVE TO THE AREA. MODELS STILL SHOWING QUIET A BIT OF SPREAD IN SPEED AND LOCATION. AS IT STANDS IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEMS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IT SHOULD NOT CREATE MANY PROBLEMS FOR AREAS NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...BUT IF THE LOWS END UP BEING FURTHER NORTH THAT WOULD BRING MORE PROBLEMS TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225. && $$ SDB NOV 15  FXAK69 PAFG 212125 CCA AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 125 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO 120 HOURS OR SO. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE OVER EXUBERANT WITH THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR COVERAGE. THE 850 TEMPERATURE INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z UPPER AIR AT MOST SITES...THE EXCEPTION WAS BARROW AND THEY INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE TOO COLD. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 568 DAM HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND A 598 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A 544 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. COL DEVELOPS INTO A TROUGH AS THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS TO 565 DAM...THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEAKENS A LITTLE...AND THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA PUSHES EAST OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. SURFACE...RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND STRENGTHEN A BIT WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP...THEN RELAX FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SWINGS TO THE WEST NEAR THE DATELINE. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN YUKON TO COPPER RIVER BASIN TO UPPER KUSKOKWIM TO BERING STRAIT TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 16 HOURS WHEN A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...THEN MOVES TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER BARREN ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...EAST OF POINT LAY OVER THE COAST STRATUS...FOG...WINDS...NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH CHANGE HERE. MODIS SPORT 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS REACHING ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND OVER THE PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY INLAND DURING THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AT TIMES...BUT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW IN OFF THE ARCTIC AND WITH IT STRATUS. NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY...THEN START TO DIMINISH. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. INLAND AREAS ON THE PLAINS AND THE BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTH OF POINT LAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE COASTAL AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO GALENA TO MINCHUMINA AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF KALTAG AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE SOME SHOWERS MAY LEAK INTO DENALI NP AND AROUND LAKE MINCHUMINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE RANGE...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO GET NORTH OF THE RANGE...THEN SOME OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAINS...AND DENSE FOG OVER THE YUKON RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FOG IN OVER THE YUKON RIVER IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 21/1600Z. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR STARTING SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH SOME DRYING IN THE CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING BACK BELOW 40 PERCENT. THERMAL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE COAST. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS RUNNING UP A BIT FROM THE LAST RAIN EVENT...BUT NOT NEAR ANY ACTION STAGE. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS TRENDING SLOWLY UP STILL BUT THEY WILL START TO TREND DOWN AS WEEK GET INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUL 15  FXAK69 PAFG 221028 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 228 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AT 500 HPA AS THEY CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. AT THE SURFACE SHORT TERM LOOKS GOOD...BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDTERM THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HANDLING OF THE EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA. MODELS MAINTAIN SOME SIMILARITY EVEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ALCAN AREA WITH 533 DAM LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ALCAN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. BUILDING RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW THAT MOVES TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AT 850 HPA...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY...STRONGEST OVER THE WEST COAST. ZERO ISOTHERM WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES REACHING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY LATE THURSDAY. SURFACE...999 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND LIES FROM ADAK TO ST PAUL ISLAND TO NOME TO NUIQSUT TO BANKS ISLAND THIS MORNING. WEDNESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM COLD BAY TO SLEETMUTE TO BETTLES TO BANKS ISLAND...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM KING SALMON TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO OLD CROW THEN EAST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. FRONT MOVES OVER THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND...THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND BE PUSHED INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING BY THE ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ARCTIC COAST...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY. NOT MUCH GOING ON TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. STRATUS CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE. WINDS ARE TURNING TO OFFSHORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH AROUND CAPE LISBURNE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE RIDGE WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA MEANS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH WILL START ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 0.75 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN...WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FROM DENALI PARK WEST TODAY AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...OTHERWISE CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. INCREASED SURF CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTON SOUND...KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE NORTHWEST COAST...AND AROUND BARROW. MODELED COASTAL SURGE IN THOSE AREAS IS CURRENTLY UP TO 2.5 FEET WHICH IS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR BARROW...KOTZEBUE...AND SHISHMAREF. && .HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER NOATAK WITH THE INCOMING RAINFALL. && .SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0749Z SHOWS A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND A BIG PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE TANANA FLATS AND OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 22/0930Z AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SDB SEP 15  FXAK69 PAFG 221217 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 317 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 60 HOURS OR SO...THEN DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE MAJOR FEATURES SHOW UP BUT THEY ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE BALLPARK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE OVER THE ARCTIC AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. THEY DO AGREE THAT THIS WILL BE A HIT AND RUN COLD SNAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD WITH SOME OF THE MODELS HANGING ON TO CLOUDS WHILE OTHERS CLEAR US OUT RAPIDLY. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE COULD BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE NAM SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN DOING A LITTLE BETTER JOB OF LATE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. 498 DAM LOW OVER BARROW WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 495 DAM THEN MOVES EAST OVER DEMARCATION POINT BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO CANADA. A RIDGE WILL CUTOFF THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER BARROW TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT WILL ROTATE TO LIE FROM OVER NUIQSUT TO BETTLES TO MCGRATH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN FROM BARTER ISLAND TO CHALKYITSIK TO DOT LAKE THURSDAY MORNING...AND INTO CANADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE THAT CUTS OFF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR. THE RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC NORTH OVER KING SALMON TO EMMONAK TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE OVER WHITTIER TO ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THURSDAY EVENING...AND SITKA TO TANANA TO POINT HOPE FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO EAGLE TO POINT LAY LATE FRIDAY. A 531 DAM HIGH WILL BREAK OFF THE RIDGE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER KOYUKUK FLATS...THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CUTOFF TROUGH WILL WILL MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING OFF SOUTHERN KAMCHATKA AND DIG INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING AT 502 DAM...THEN OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 498 DAM FRIDAY MORNING...AND OVER SAND POINT SATURDAY MORNING AT 516 DAM. AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM LIES FROM CHALKYITSIK TO AMBLER TO GAMBLE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH A BIT AND WILL LIE FROM EAGLE TO DELTA JUNCTION TO NENANA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK NORTH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY RETURNING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW. SURFACE...RELATIVELY FLAT PATTERN OVER THE AREAS WITH WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. WEAK EAST TO WEST TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE ARCTIC. PATTERN A BIT MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOUDY...THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE INTERIOR THURSDAY WITH A 1028 MB HIGH OVER AMBLER THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING TO FAIRBANKS AT 1031 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO CANADA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS. THE NEXT BIG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 964 MB...THEN OSCILLATE AROUND A BIT OVER THE BERING SEA BEFORE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AT 951 MB THURSDAY EVENING...AND OVER UNIMAK ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT 962 MB. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE ARCTIC ABOUT 150 MILES OFFSHORE THAT IS DRAGGING EAST. SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0731Z PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS...SOME PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE PASSES THAT HAVE COLD AIR RUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THEM. TEMPERATURES STEADY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS IN THE PLAINS FALLING TO AROUND 40 BELOW WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE BERING SEA THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SOME FLURRIES WITH THAT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SO WILL THE STRATUS AND FLURRIES SO ONLY EXPECTING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. COLD AIR DIGGING SOUTH BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN AS THE SKIES CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF ANVIK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW OF THE INTERIOR AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE 40 BELOW RANGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND THE BERING STRAIT WHICH WILL SEE WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEM SINCE THE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WITH THE CLOUDS STICKING AROUND. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES...THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS OUT THE CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS HANG IN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE AROUND. THAT WOULD KEEP US MUCH WARMER THAN IF WE CLEAR OUT IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN FACT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES DIFFERENT IF THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ205. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. && $$ SDB DEC 15  FXAK69 PAFG 222050 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1250 PM AKDT WED JUL 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO 120 HOURS OR SO. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AGAIN TODAY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS DRIFTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WITH A 564 DAM HIGH NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A 547 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 552 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA. SURFACE...PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. 1003 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A 995 MB LOW DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES EAST TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND MERGES WITH A 997 MB LOW AS THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES SOUTHEAST. LATE THURSDAY EVENING THE THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC PERSISTS WITH RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC TODAY...AND WILL ROTATE WEST TO THE DATELINE AND CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY EVENING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT AT 22/1637Z SHOW THE STRATUS ON THE ARCTIC HAS MOVED INLAND OFF THE COAST BETWEEN BARROW AND PRUDHOE BAY AND THE CLEARING CORRELATES QUITE WELL WITH THE POSITION OF THE 564 DAM HIGH AT 500 HPA. EXPECT CLEARING NORTH OF POINT LAY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES WEST...WITH STRATUS FLOWING BACK OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS FROM EAST TO WEST BEHIND THE RIDGE. THE CLEARING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL SWING A FRONT TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS...BUT EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING TAPERING TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM THIS EVENING WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND AROUND MINCHUMINA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THEN A REPEAT TOMORROW FOR THE ALASKA RANGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE...NO SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS SINCE 22/0918Z SO NO HELP THERE...BUT THE NPP VIIRS DAY NIGHT PRODUCT FROM 22/1637 CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE ARCTIC CRUSHING THE STRATUS AS IT MOVES WEST. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS STILL TRENDING TO A SOLUTION WITH A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER YUKON. STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR EAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL FOCUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALASKA RANGE AND ADJACENT ZONES TODAY AND THURSDAY. THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING EVEN LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. OVERALL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INTERIOR ALASKA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH MIN RH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS HAVE ALL LEVELED OFF AND WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO NO ISSUES AT THIS TIME AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUL 15  FXAK69 PAFG 231108 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 308 AM AKDT WED SEP 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD AT 500 HPA. MODELS ARE MAINTAINING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 84 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP. AT THE SURFACE THEY HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND ARE CONSISTENT THROUGH AROUND 84 HOURS ALSO. MOVING INTO THE MIDTERM THEY ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT STILL SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A NUDGE TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AREA WITH THE AXIS FROM KUPARUK TO CORDOVA THIS MORNING. A 534 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY TODAY AND SLIDE EAST AND NORTH WITH THE LOW MOVING OVER BARTER ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING AT 530 DAM WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. THE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE RIDGE THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE AXIS LIES FROM OVER ADAK TO POINT LAY AND INTO THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING...ROTATING TO LIE FROM ATKA TO SLEETMUTE TO DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDES EAST TO LIE FROM CORDOVA TO EAGLE AND NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AT 518 DAM THURSDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AT 516 DAM FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING STRAIT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIE FROM THE LOW TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET BY FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUING EAST INTO THE YUKON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO CAPE NEWENHAM THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM POINT LAY TO TO WESTERN KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BREAK DOWN THE COLD AIR AND PUSH THE ZERO ISOTHERM SOUTH TO LIE FROM CAPE ROMANZOF TO MCGRATH TO CORDOVA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE...1000 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS A RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA. THE RIDGE LIES FROM COLD BAY TO MCGRATH TO BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL ROTATE SOUTHEAST TO LIE FROM COLD BAY TO DENALI PARK TO BANKS ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING...SLIDING INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A LOW NEARING WRANGEL ISLAND THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT WORKING INLAND TO LIE FROM POINT LAY TO UNALAKLEET AND CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM BARROW TO MCGRATH BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE ARCTIC A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST...SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST OF BARROW THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ARCTIC TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN AREAS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST COAST SOUTH OF POINT LAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH...ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH. RAIN MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC AND BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN CHANGING TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING MAY START OUT AS SNOW IN AREAS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA...BUT CHANGE TO RAIN BY NOON IN MOST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WORK INLAND WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL SWING AROUND TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT AND ON THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL AREAS WILL HAVE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. INLAND AREA WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES RISING 3 TO 8 DEGREES IN MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE FOR THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME...BUT THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SO WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH OVER THAT AREA. && .SATELLITE...STRATUS IN THE ARCTIC AND IN THE INTERIOR STANDS OUT PRETTY GOOD ON THE SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 23/0833Z PRODUCT. NOT SEEING MUCH MOVEMENT IN EITHER AREA. STRATUS ON THE WEST COAST IS MASKED BY THE HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 23/0845Z AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VAST AREAS OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE WITH A WIDE BAND OF STRATUS INDICATED WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225. && $$ SDB SEP 15  FXAK69 PAFG 231317 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 417 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW MOVING TO THE WEST COAST NEXT 24 HOURS...A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. COASTAL SURGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THERE IS SOME CONFUSION IN THE MODELS AS TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN ON CONTINUITY AND ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXISTING GRIDDED DATABASE FOR THE SHORT TERM PACKAGE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 499 DAM LOW 200 NM WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING...AND BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...THEN EAST ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND...THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AS IT PUSHES NORTHEAST OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LIE SOUTHEAST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PUSHING OVER THE RIDGE AND THE ARCTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL PUSH 530 DAM HEIGHTS AS FAR NORTH AS MACKENZIE BAY AND 540 HEIGHTS TO THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. SURFACE...BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS 970 MB LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE DAY. GAP FLOW/CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...AND THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS. LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH GAP/CHINOOK WINDS DEVELOPING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA AND UPPER YUKON VALLEY DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MARINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL IS PUSHING SURGE VALUES UP A BIT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE MAXING OUT AT AROUND 7 FEET IN NORTON BAY AND 6 FEET IN NORTON SOUND SO WILL CANCEL THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR THOSE AREAS...AND THE SCAMMON BAY AREA. THERE IS SOME SHOREFAST ICE IN THESE AREAS AND THAT COULD LEAD TO PROBLEMS AS IT GETS SHOVED UP ON SHORE. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...GINA MODIS FOG PRODUCT...11-3.7UM AT 23/0624Z NOT SHOWING A LOT ON THE ARCTIC COAST. THERE IS A BAND OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ARCTIC OVER WAINWRIGHT AND SOUTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...AND SOME STRATUS IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THAT IS JUST HANGING AROUND. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT IN PASSES WILL TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW MOVING INTO THE BROOKS RANGE TONIGHT...BUT MINIMAL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TURN TO EASTERLY AS LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COAST COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LOT GOING ON HERE...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE CANCELING IN THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES AND ISSUING HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN THIS MORNING AND TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NORTH. CAPE ROMANZOF IS ALREADY GETTING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS AND THEY WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE CAPES AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WILL OCCUR. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR ZONES 209 AND 213 TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW FOR MOST OF THE OTHER ZONES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 18 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AS THE LOW BRING WARM AIR NORTH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...JUST A GLANCING BLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AS MOST OF THE SYSTEM IS PUSHED NORTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. PERIODS OF SNOW AND EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF FAIRBANKS AS THE SYSTEM RIDES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS FROM FAIRBANKS WEST AND NORTH FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE ALASKA RANGE AND AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AS GAP/CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 70 MPH NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH NEAR DELTA JUNCTION. TEMPERATURES WARMER HERE ALSO AS THE CHINOOK WINDS WARM THE AREA. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ214. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214. WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ205-AKZ206-AKZ222- AKZ227. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212- AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB NOV 15  FXAK69 PAFG 241148 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 248 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE PAST FEW RUNS. THERE ARE SOME ISSUES AS THEY MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS. MODEL OUTPUT NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH REALITY SO THAT SHOULD MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT EASIER TODAY. WILL LEAN ON CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART WITH A BLEND OF THE CURRENT GFS RUN. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...499 DAM LOW OVER BARTER ISLAND THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LIES FROM THE LOW TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO TANANA AND WILL MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY TO CHALKYITSIK TO HEALY LATE THIS MORNING...AND MOVE OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO KING SALMON TO EMMONAK AND OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST TO LIE OVER WHITTIER TO ANVIK TO SHISHMAREF TO WRANGEL ISLAND THIS EVENING...AND SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND DEASE LAKE BC TO EAGLE TO CAPE LISBURNE LATE FRIDAY. THE LOW THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS AROUND 100 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA THIS MORNING AT 500 DAM...MOVING TO 200 NM NORTH OF ADAK LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN OVER UNIMAK ISLAND AT 494 DAM BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...00Z UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 16.7 CELSIUS BELOW SO THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM IS TO THE NORTH BUT WILL MOVE SOUTH AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AND COLD AIR SINKS SOUTH. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL MOVE NORTH LATER TODAY TO LIE FROM DAWSON YT TO POINT HOPE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST EXITING THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. A 1027 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS AND WILL MOVE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF FAIRBANKS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO CANADA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW YT LATE THIS EVENING WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THE PATTERN WILL BE PRETTY DYNAMIC OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES EAST WITH AND OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING NORTH TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. STRONG GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS TODAY AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...AS LOW OFFSHORE MOVES NORTH SOME CLEARING IS ALREADY OCCURRING WEST OF NUIQSUT. THE 24/0718Z SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IS NOT SHOWING MUCH STRATUS AND WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA...IT SHOULD STAY CLEARED OUT FOR A WHILE...AND THE EASTERN AREAS WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF ROUGE STRATUS THAT MOVE OVER AREAS...BUT NOT SEEING IT RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WARM NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA INFLUENCES THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE AND PUSHES THE COLDEST AIR NORTHEAST. WINDS IN THE EASTERN ARCTIC DIMINISHING LATER TODAY...BUT WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COLDER AIR TODAY WILL BE PUSHED OUT LATER IN THE EVENING AND THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGER WINDS WORKING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY NOON TODAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLEARING WILL OCCUR PRETTY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA AS AREAS TO THE WEST ARE ALREADY CLEAR OR CLEARING. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN ABOUT 15 DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE TODAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WARMING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH GAP WINDS AND TANANA JET DEVELOPING FRIDAY AS THE WARM AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ214. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220. && $$ SDB DEC 15  FXAK69 PAFG 251153 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 253 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM SOLUTION WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID RANGE AND BEYOND. MODEL OUTPUT NUMBERS ARE MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH THIS LATEST RUN SO IT LOOKS LIKE THEY HAVE FINALLY CAUGHT UP. WILL USE A BLEND AGAIN TODAY LEANING TOWARD CONTINUITY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO SITKA TO TANANA TO KOTZEBUE AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING AND WILL LIE FROM DEASE LAKE BC TO CHICKEN TO BETTLES TO POINT HOPE LATE THIS EVENING...THEN FROM MAYO YT TO COLDFOOT TO POINT LAY BY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY...AND OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BY SUNDAY MORNING. 500 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH A LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC TO BE OVER COLD BAY THIS MORNING AT 498 DAM...ROTATING TO NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND THIS EVENING THEN BACK SOUTHEAST OVER PAVLOF BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING AT 500 DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST OVER BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS IT WEAKENS TO 510 DAM. WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND THE LOW AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...00Z UPPER AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 17.2 CELSIUS BELOW SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMING ALOFT HAS BEGUN. UPPER AIR FROM MCGRATH SHOWED AN INCREASE OF AROUND 7 CELSIUS FROM 12Z LAST NIGHT TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THE WARMING SHOULD CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS NEAR 2 CELSIUS BELOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANY COOLING STARTS. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 951 MB LOW NEAR COLD BAY THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NEAR OLD CROW AND RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST TO A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR CAPE HALKETT AND RIDGING EXTENDING TO WRANGEL ISLAND. THE RIDGING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW INFLUENCES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO 150 NM NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND AT 957 MB THIS EVENING...THEN ROTATE SOUTH TO 100 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EAST TO SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY BY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE ALEUTIANS. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE LATE SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN TODAY. TANANA VALLEY JET KICKS IN TODAY ALONG WITH SOME GAP WINDS NEAR PASSES. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY NICE FOR THE ARCTIC IN DECEMBER. MOSTLY CLEAR FROM WHAT I CAN SEE FROM DEADHORSE WEST ON THE GOES AT 25/1130Z AND THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 25/0815Z. GOES MVFR DOES INDICATE SOME CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT 25/0815Z...BUT IT IS PRETTY NOISY SO NOT REAL RELIABLE. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR Z201. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH AS THEY SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MIX OF WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED A BIT OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND THE WORST CONDITIONS HAVE PASSED SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. GAMBELL OBSERVATION STOPPED COMING IN YESTERDAY...BUT SAVOONGA OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SO WILL KEEP THAT WARNING GOING. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LOWER YUKON DELTA SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLING A BIT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG NEAR THE COAST...AND SOME STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SUMMITS INLAND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND RIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...BUT SOME GAP WINDS AND THE TANANA JET DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. STRONG GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER SUMMITS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ209. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ214. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB DEC 15  FXAK69 PAFG 141142 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 242 AM AKST THU JAN 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE WE SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE BIG ISSUE IS THE HANDLING OF THE LOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND ITS EVOLUTION AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE CONFUSED PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECASTS A BIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 511 DAM LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT LIES SOUTHEAST TO SITKA AND WILL PULL BACK NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AT 521 DAM WITH THE TROUGH ONLY EXTENDING TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY. THE LOW WOBBLE AROUND A BIT AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WILL LIE SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AT 524 DAM WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AT 528 DAM. TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 538 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY OVER SLEETMUTE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BREAKS AWAY FROM THE MAIN RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR LATE FRIDAY. CONFUSION WITH THE LOWS OVER THE BROOKS RANGE CENTRAL INTERIOR CONTINUES...BUT ALL MODELS HAVE THE LOWS CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NORTON SOUND REGION AND MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE...A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WITH WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 1003 MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. A 992 MB LOW WILL DRIFT WEST OVER KAMCHATKA. A 974 MB LOW LIES JUST SOUTH OF ATKA...A 993 MB LOW LIES OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALL OF THESE LOWS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW THAT MOVES FROM 42N 170W TO 48N 152W BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO 51N 156W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSISTS NORTH OF 75N IN THE HIGH ARCTIC. SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 14/0917Z NOT MUCH HELP THIS TIME AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC AS HIGH CLOUDS MASK MOST OF THE AREA. IT DOES INDICATE A PRETTY GOOD PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND PATCHES OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND MIDDLE YUKON VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PRETTY HARD TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS THE ARCTIC. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH SOME PERIODS OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. A 1011 MB LOW WILL MOVE OVER DEMARCATION POINT LATER TODAY AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE. NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WEST OF KUPARUK. WITH THE LOW MOVING TO DEMARCATION POINT THE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTHEAST...BUT WILL SWING AROUND THE DIAL AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THEN RETURN TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...998 MB LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE ENDING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA AND DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO MAJOR FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS ON THE COAST WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND. THE EXCEPTION ON THE COAST WILL BE THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WHICH WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH EAST OF ANVIK LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPPER NOATAK...KOBUK NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WHERE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE WEEKEND TO 20 TO 45 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK BAROCLINIC AREA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST WITH IT. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING AROUND FAIRBANKS...WITH FLURRIES CONTINUING TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHILE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY...THEN SLOW CLEARING OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS AND ALL SUMMITS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EAGLE SUMMIT WILL SEE SOME STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TANANA JET PICKS UP LATE SATURDAY SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHEN THEY DO PICK UP. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15 BELOW... BUT LOOK FOR WARMER CONDITIONS ON THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND ZERO. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB JAN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 151136 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 236 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 24 HOURS BEFORE WE SEE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAJOR FEATURES. STILL HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...BUT NOT AS BAD AS THE SPAGHETTI YESTERDAY. THERE IS MUCH BETTER CONCENSUS ON THE LOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. PATTERN IS STILL PRETTY CONFUSED SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS AND ONLY NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE A BIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH WITH A 524 DAM LOW LIES OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING. A RIDGE LIE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH 538 DAM CENTERS OVER WESTERN COOK INLET AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND. THE LOW WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY...AND CONTINUES OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL GET PINCHED OFF WITH A 541 DAM CENTER MOVING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUING NORTHWEST INTO SIBERIA. THE EASTERN PART OF THE CUTOFF RIDGE WILL START BUILDING BACK OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY AND LIE FROM BURWASH LANDING YT TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MODELS ARE INDICATING A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW. SURFACE...WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A 1003 MB LOW LIES IN THE NORTHERN GULF. NO MAJOR FEATURES TO REALLY PICK OUT OF THE GUIDANCE. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADIENT PINCHING AS THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH A BIT...SO EXPECT SOME STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR. SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 15/0820Z SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS NORTH AND EAST OF TANANA IN THE INTERIOR...OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE CHUKCHI SEA...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. HARD TO DETERMINE THE MOVEMENT OF ANY OF IT AT THIS TIME SINCE THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SATELLITE SHOWS THE STRATUS AND THE GOES IR FROM 15/1030 SHOWS A BIG PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC MOVING WEST...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT OR THE STRATUS GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST FROM POINT LAY SOUTH TO PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 25 TO 40 MPH IN THOSE AREAS WITH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ELSEWHERE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND MAY PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES. WINDS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA HAVE PICKED UP TO 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING AROUND 45 MPH IN SOME AREAS EAST OF ANVIK AND WILL DIMINISH A BIT SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK NEAR THE BROOKS RANGE WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY TO 20 TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF ZONES 210...NORTHERN 212...AND NORTHERN 216 TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH SATURDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...BIGGEST ISSUE HERE IS WHERE IS ALL THE STRATUS GOING TO GO. BIG PATCHES OF BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA YESTERDAY AND THE 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM 15/0820Z SHOWS IT STILL FLOATING AROUND. HARD TO FIGURE ANY MOVEMENT ON IT AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY A COUPLE IMAGES...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MOVING ANYWHERE FAST SO EXPECT THAT IT WILL JUST DISSIPATE IN PLACE EVENTUALLY. OF COURSE MODELS DO NOT HANDLE THIS TYPE OF STRATUS AT ALL SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH IT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO 10 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR WINDS OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS STILL EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...THE EXCEPTION HERE IS THEY MAY NOT GET THAT GUSTY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE SUMMIT. EXPECT THE TANANA JET TO KICK IN LATE TONIGHT ALSO WITH WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AROUND FAIRBANKS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS NEAR 15 BELOW...BUT LOOK FOR WARMER CONDITIONS BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND ZERO. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. && $$ SDB JAN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 161106 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 206 AM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MID TERM...BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT DYNAMIC AT ALL AND THE MODELS ARE MOSTLY SMOOTHING OUT THE RIPPLES IN THE PATTERN THAT WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THEY ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER NOATAK AND KOBUK...LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE CHUKCHI SEA AND THE BERING STRAIT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW IN THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS MORNING AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING....AND OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW THIS MORNING TO A 523 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES COAST AND A COL WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND AS IT DEEPENS TO 508 DAM BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN GETS ABSORBED BY A 492 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF BANKS ISLAND. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN DIG IN AND STRENGTHEN MONDAY AS COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH OVER THE AREA. THE 540 DAM HIGH THAT WAS OVER NORTON SOUND YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST. WEAK RIDGING WILL PUSH WEST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE COL WILL EXPAND TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS AND LEAKING INTO THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING FROM A 1043 MB HIGH IN THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...WHILE A 974 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...SOUTH OF SAND POINT...CONTINUES TO SPIN. AS THE WEEKEND CONTINUE THE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BIT SOUTH WHILE THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTH A BIT TIGHTENING UP THE GRADIENT FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEST. WITH THE GRADIENT BEING PINCHED EXPECT...STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR. WINDS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LAY DOWN ON SUNDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE BROOKS RANGE COULD SEE THE STRONGER GUSTY WINDS INTO MID WEEK AT THIS TIME. ONE THING THIS PATTERN DOES GUARANTEE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK IF ANY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SATELLITE...MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 16/0725Z CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDE SWATH OF STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXTENDING OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY...AND THE GOES IMAGES INDICATE IT IS MOVING TO THE WEST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOTS OF STRATUS...PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES...RELATIVELY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. WINDS WILL NOT GENERALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LOFT THE SNOW AND BRING VISIBILITY DOWN...BUT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE SNOW AROUND AND CREATE ISSUES WITH DRIFTING SNOW AND POTENTIAL SNOW LOADING PROBLEMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE OVER THE COAST AND PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW DOWNWARD SPIRAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT QUITE WELL DEVELOPING THE WINDS. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND UP WITH THE WINDS AND WILL ADD Z208 AND Z213 TO THE MIX OF WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND HEADLINES AS WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CREATE PROBLEMS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT INDICATING THE WINDS ABATING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY SO WILL PUSH OUT THE END TIMES FOR MOST OF THE HAZARDS. OTHER THAN A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN ANY OF THE ZONES. STRATUS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT MAY MIX OUT AS THE WINDS PICK UP. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS...STRATUS...AND MORE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND THE AREA. MOST OF IT MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY AND GOES IMAGES INDICATE IT IS MOVING WEST...JUST DO NOT SEE A BACK SIDE TO IT SO EXPECT ITS DEMISE WILL COME WITH THE INCREASING WINDS ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN A COOLING TREND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. STILL DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. SOME STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLY TO 40 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SUMMITS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR NORTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS THEY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH EXPECTED AT INDIAN MOUNTAIN...GOBBLERS KNOB AND FINGER MOUNTAIN AS WELL AS OTHER SUMMITS IN THE RAY MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND EAGLE SUMMIT. TANANA JET HAS NOT KICKED IN YET BUT EXPECT IT TO THIS MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP SATURDAY...SO GUSTY WINDS IN DELTA JUNCTION TO 45 MPH AND NENANA TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JAN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 171106 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 206 AM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM THE LAST FEW RUNS. BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE MID TERM...BUT MAINLY BECAUSE THE WEATHER PATTERN IS PRETTY STAGNANT WITH A BIG COL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEY HAVE DONE WELL WITH THE WINDS IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER NAM OUTPUT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LOW OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND HAS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND WILL BE OVER ADAK BY MONDAY MORNING. A LARGE COL REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. A 517 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BANKS ISLAND BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST TO BARROW. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WILL PULL BACK WEST A BIT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES WEST. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PUSH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT THEN BUILD WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY. AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC AND THE EASTERN INTERIOR NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIDGING FROM A 1046 MB HIGH IN SIBERIAN CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER ALASKAS ARCTIC COAST...WHILE A 968ISH MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...SOUTH OF SAND POINT WOBBLES AROUND. A COUPLE WEAK LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THEN BE ABSORBED BY THE MAIN LOW...BUT NOTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST WITH A 1030 MB CENTER DEVELOPING OVER MACKENZIE BAY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PUSH A BIT SOUTH WHILE THE LOW WILL PUSH NORTH A BIT PINCHING THE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND IN AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER TO THE BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT...STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SEWARD PENINSULA. THE STRONG WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK BEFORE LAYING DOWN A LITTLE. WITH THIS PATTERN THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY...AND UPPER YUKON FLATS TUESDAY. SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS FROM SPORT AT 17/0808Z SHOWS MUCH LESS STRATUS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OVER MOST OF THE STATE...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY FLOATING AROUND OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND COAST THIS MORNING. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THE STRATUS CONTINUES...AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. EXPECT A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SOME PATCHY FOG...SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...SOME FLURRIES...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COLD AIR OVER THE ICE COVERED ARCTIC WATERS MOVES SOUTH. A FEW AREAS IN THE ARCTIC PLAINS COULD SEE 40 BELOW LOWS BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK...ALONG THE COAST LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S BELOW WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BELOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHWEST WINDS EAST OF KUPARUK. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME HIGHER CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HELPED TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A BIT THIS MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY SO EXCEPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY STRONG NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. NO CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP THEM GOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NOW...BUT SOME WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID WEEK. A FEW PLACES ARE REPORTING FLURRIES...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY JUST LOFTED SNOW BY THE STRONG WINDS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TUCKED INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE NOT MOVING...JUST STUCK IN THE LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...SO CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER WINDS TO MAKE IT TO THE VALLEY FLOOR TODAY...SO THE INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THE TANANA JET CONTINUES TO BLOW AROUND DELTA JUNCTION WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. OVER THE SUMMITS EXPECT THE WINDS TO CONTINUE AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY TODAY. WINDS MUCH LIGHTER IN Z218 SO WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP THAT FROM THE ADVISORIES. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT WHERE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ208-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200. && $$ SDB JAN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 181127 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 227 AM AKST MON JAN 18 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...MUCH BETTER SOLUTION AGREEMENT THE LAST COUPLE DAYS FOR THE SHORT TERM AND IMPROVED MID TERM AGREEMENT...AND EVEN THE EXTENDED PERIODS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ARCTIC. MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE WINDS WELL IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A BLEND LEANING A BIT MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER NAM OUTPUT. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE A PATCH OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AND OVER THE YUKON FLATS TUESDAY...BUT NONE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO HANDLE THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY...BUT NUDGE IT WITH THE SREF TO GET SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES THAN WE USUALLY GET FROM THE OTHER MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LARGE COL OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A 505 DAM LOW OVER SOUTHERN BANKS ISLAND HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST OVER NUIQSUT THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND A 522 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST BROOKS RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVES WEST OVER THE PLAINS AT 521 DAM BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO KOTZEBUE SOUND BY TUESDAY EVENING AT 519 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ORIGINAL LOW MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND IS ABSORBED BY A 480 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA. A 543 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE OVER 75N 180 BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL PUSH NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN AND A 520 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUESDAY WHILE A 511 DAM LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. AT 850 HPA...THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC AND NORTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING...AND EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS IT WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THE AIRMASS MODERATES PRETTY RAPIDLY WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF 20 BELOW LEFTOVER BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE ADVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE...RIDGING FROM A 1040 HIGH OVER SIBERIA REMAINS ACROSS THE ARCTIC WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE 1025 MB HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A 1013 MB LOW BANKS ISLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW INTO A 990 MB LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL SWING AROUND THE LOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY DRAG EAST. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO LIE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WITH SEVERAL LOWS SPINNING AROUND. THE PRIMARY LOW IS A 975 MB LOW NEAR 50N 155W. A 978 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO OFF THE COAST OF SITKA BY TUESDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 988 MB...THEN IS ABSORBED BY THE MAIN LOW. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE MAIN LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY A 969 MB LOW THAT IS MOVING NORTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AT 975 MB. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND CHUKCHI SEA...THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND SEWARD PENINSULA. SATELLITE...MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS IMAGES FROM SPORT AT 18/0852Z AND 18/0S35Z SHOW QUITE STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST EAST OF NUIQSUT THIS MORNING. NO INDICATION OF IT MOVING...IF ANYTHING IT IS JUST MOVING SOUTH AND WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT IT TO STICK AROUND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AND TROUGHING PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID WEEK. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATUS OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EAST OF EAGLE SUMMIT...AS WELL AS SOME ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MORE OF THE WINTERTIME NORM HERE WITH THE STRATUS FLOATING AROUND. MAYBE A LITTLE LESS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WEST OF NUIQSUT. OF COURSE ALSO EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WITH THE STRATUS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF KUPARUK WHERE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH...AND SOUTH OF POINT LAY ON THE NORTHWEST COAST AND IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40 BELOW RANGE IN THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20Z BELOW THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE LULL IN THE WINDS THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP IN MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THAT HAVE BEEN ISSUED. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OR BE CLEARING TODAY. A FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY EVENING AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FROM GALENA TO KALTAG. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES THEY WILL FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND REMAIN GUSTY IN THE HILLS NORTH OF GALENA AND OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. LOCALLY BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES TUCKED INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY...BUT THEY ARE NOT MOVING...JUST STUCK IN THE LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL SPREAD PRIMARILY FLURRIES OVER THE AREA AS IT MOVES TO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS AS FAR WEST AS FAIRBANKS...BUT NO SNOW. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW LOCALLY IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY AND THE YUKON FLATS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. WINDS ON SUMMITS INCREASING AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WEAK TANANA JET CONTINUES WITH WINDS AROUND DELTA GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213-AKZ217- AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JAN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 091157 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 257 AM AKST TUE FEB 9 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND THEY REMAIN IN RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE MODELS REALLY START TO DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF SOME OF THE MAJOR FEATURES. WILL LEAN ON A PRETTY EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN LEAN TOWARD NAM THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR...THEN TOWARD THE GFS WHEN THE NAM RUN ENDS AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SEEM A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR TO THE WEST. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH 534 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE WILL BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE. A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CUT OFF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE UPPER KOBUK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND BY LATE THURSDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS FALL TO 509 DAM. A 536 DAM CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE PART OF THE RIDGE THAT GETS CUT OFF AND WILL MOVE OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTH IN OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. SURFACE...A 1044 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN THIS MORNING THAT IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE IN...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE PRODUCING SOME BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM 08/2159Z...08/2233Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT TODAY WHICH WILL HELP DIMINISH THE BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE FOG TO CHANGE MUCH SO EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST LATER TODAY. DO NOT EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE TODAY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER NEXT COUPLE DAYS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS SOME INDICATION THE AREA COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN SOME SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A DECAYING FRONT SWINGS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TANANA EAST AND NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS TO BE AN INCH OR LESS AT THIS TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 16  FXAK69 PAFG 101130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 230 AM AKST WED FEB 10 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AND HAS IMPROVED IN THE 24 TO 60 HOUR RANGE. WILL USE THE SAME FORECAST METHODOLOGY TODAY BY LEANING ON AN EVEN BLEND FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE TIMING AS IT MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE STATE AS IT EXTENDS UP TH WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY THEN WEST OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AND CHUKCHI SEA WITH 540 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AS A 525 DAM LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO THE UPPER KOBUK THURSDAY MORNING...AND OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND FRIDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND DRIFTING INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA. A CHUNK OF THE RIDGE BROKE OFF AND A 540 DAM HIGH DEVELOPED OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE NORTH WITH A SECOND CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...WHILE TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. SURFACE...NOT MUCH CHANGE HERE SINCE YESTERDAY...A 1046 MB HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC AS THE CENTER SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A SERIES OF LOWS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL ROTATE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL OF THEM DISSIPATING AS THE MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAINLAND. AS THE LOWS MOVE NORTH THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE PINCHES A BIT AND SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE IS PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS...AND IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING A BIT TO THE WINDS WHICH ARE PRODUCING SOME LOCAL BLOWING SNOW THAT IS COMBINING WITH FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY. GOES IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A NICE BAND OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT IS MOVING WEST. THE SPORT MODIS AND NPP VIIRS 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMBINED IMAGE FROM 09/2023Z...08/2001Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED STRIP OF STRATUS THAT EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEAST WELL INTO CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS INCREASE A BIT TODAY AS THE RIDGE PINCHES SOUTH A BIT SO EXPECT AND INCREASE IN THE BLOWING SNOW CONTRIBUTION TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. TEMPERATURES NOT CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A LITTLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A DECAYING WEATHER FRONT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MID DAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...BUT LOCAL WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND IN THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH OVER SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 16  FXAK69 PAFG 021130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 230 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AT 06Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. THE SEMI PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO AND A HALF MONTHS DOES TRANSITION A BIT WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT TRANSITIONS RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN SO WILL STICK TO JUST MAKING MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 160W WILL SLIDE EAST A BIT AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS DRIFTING BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. A 527 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE BAY TODAY AND MOVE WEST IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE MERGING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY. A 537 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER YAKUTAT MOVES WEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER KANTISHNA THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL SEE THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS BY SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEAK WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE 1042 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 135W PERSISTS BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA BUILDS TO 1036 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND...AND THE 970 MB LOW NEAR 45N 148W DRIFTS NORTH WITH A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 48N 135W THURSDAY AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0717Z IS FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS WITH THE LITTLE LOW SPINNING UP AROUND MACKENZIE BAY AND SPREADING SOME SNOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN...THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND EVEN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE..STRATUS...PATCHY FOG...A FEW FLURRIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE SEWARD PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING OR MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THAT WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  FXAK69 PAFG 031245 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 345 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 03/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE...AND ARE EVEN TRENDING THE SAME DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM RUN TO RUN SO AGAIN WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 140W WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BE 500 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST TO MACKENZIE BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE AND LIES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC. THE 515 DAM LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY. A 534 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 13 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS CHANGING AS THE 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 140W WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND SLIPS SOUTHWEST TO 77N 155W BY LATE FRIDAY...AND 966 MB LOW NEAR 48N 150W PERSISTS BUT SWINGS A 974 MB LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS OF THE STATE. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0655Z IS AGAIN FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES. USING THE AVHRR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 03/0900Z THEY INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTON SOUND ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...PLAINS...AND BROOKS RANGE TO MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES TO MOVE ON...SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WINTER WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS WINDS KICK UP NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING IN THE BERING STRAIT AND KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND SOME DENSE FOG IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INCREASING WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  FXAK69 PAFG 152030 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1230 PM AKDT TUE MAR 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEY ONLY DIVERGE A BIT AS THEY MOVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THEY APPEAR TO HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ORIENTATION OVER THE STATE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DATABASE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS SET UP OVER THE STATE AND WITH A 514 DAM LOW OVER HUSLIA THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL SLOWLY PULL OUT TO THE NORTH TO BE OVER DEADHORSE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN ABSORBS A 520 DAM LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE HIGH ARCTIC...AND ROTATES SOUTH TO OVER MANLEY HOT SPRINGS BY SATURDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A 549 DAM HIGH MOVING OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE SPLITS AS THE LOW OVER DEADHORSE MOVES SOUTH WITH A 540 DAM HIGH OVER BRISTOL BAY WITH WEAK RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...THE GULF OF ANADYR...AND NORTH TO A 547 DAM HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC. WEAK RIDGING WILL ALSO PERSIST OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 20 BELOW CELSIUS OVER FAIRBANKS AND AROUND 30 BELOW OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN. SATELLITE...SPORT 24 HOURS MICROPHYSICS COMPOSITE OF VIIRS AT 15/1408Z AND MODIS AT 15/1422Z CLEARLY SHOWS A BAND OF STRATUS EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. IT ALSO INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE LOW. THE GOES PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 15/1500Z INDICATES MOST OF THE STRATUS IS OF THE MVFR VARIETY...THOUGH THERE IS A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES AROUND A 999 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN NEAR DAWSON YUKON TERRITORY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATES. A SHARP RIDGE WITH A 1034 MB CENTER NEAR UMIAT WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WEST OVER THE AREA WITH A 1039 MB CENTER NEAR BANKS ISLAND...AND A 1041 MB CENTER OVER WRANGEL ISLAND. INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THURSDAY. ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...RELATIVELY QUIET...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS...MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF DEADHORSE AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE EAST OF ANAKTUVUK PASS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO 25 MPH IN THE PASSES THIS EVENING WILL TAPER DOWN TO VARIABLE AT 10 OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR 205 AND 206 OVERNIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...COOLER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRAGS COLD ARCTIC AIR SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE YUKON DELTA...SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUSLIA AND THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG NORTH WINDS IN AND NEAR THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING TO 30 MPH WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST...TO BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...TANANA VALLEY...AND FLATS WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION...WHITE MOUNTAINS...YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND THE UPPER KOYUKUK BASIN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...THE EXCEPTION IS THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR NOW...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206. && $$ SDB MAR 16