FXUS63 KABR 130918 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Will start out this morning will at persistent 500mb trough overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb cut off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across the Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to propagate eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday. At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through Leona and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau from Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind direction, do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb temps will rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west and east of the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher than originally anticipated over the last couple of days, and bumped them up a bit. These are also areas of limited to no snow left, which shows up well on the MODIS imagery from yesterday. Slightly cooler air does slide in for Tuesday, behind the exiting sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake Superior, knocking afternoon temperatures down 3-5F across the board. The coolest air. 850mb temps of -5 to -9C will be over the eastern half of the forecast area. Expect a sfc ridge to build overhead Tuesday night. Then warm southerly winds will return for Wednesday, as the ridge exits across MN. Highs will be back in the 40s to low 50s for most. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday) Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 The 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions were generating qpf over this cwa Sunday night (ECMWF), Feb 19, and Monday (GFS), Feb 20, in deep southerly flow. However, the GFS ensemble output was much less with qpf at the day 7-8 timeframe. "Likely" pops in Superblend for that forecast period may be a little overdone at this point. Until then, the extended is dry while an upper level ridge migrates from the western conus to the central conus, and upper level longwave troffing develops across the western conus. When the period opens, Wednesday night, low level waa is in full swing with steadily warming temperatures expected through the first half of the weekend. If clouds and precipitation potential do start to show up at the end of the extended forecast later today or tomorrow, the impact to temperatures will likely be some cooling. At this point, though, p-type would probably be rain from any system working northward through the region within a much above normal temperature regime like the one being forecast for later this week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017 VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and Monday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...Mohr  FXUS63 KABR 131136 CCA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 536 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 Will start out this morning with a persistent 500mb trough overhead, that will slide to our east Tuesday morning. The 500mb cut off low just south of AZ will work across northern TX Tuesday morning, and merge with the eastern Canadian/U.S. trough Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will allow the ridge currently across the Pacific Northwest up through much of western Canada to propagate eastward across WY/MT by the end of the day Wednesday. At the sfc, high pressure remained over KS, with the ridge that was over our area at 00Z having shifted to WI. This is thanks to the low over central Canada sliding a trough across the Northern Plains. The trough will be set up overhead at 12Z, before shifting to our eastern counties and across western MN by 12Z. Other than some high clouds rolling across the region from the northwest, and a little uptick in the winds behind the sfc trough, we will continue to experience dry and mild conditions. The strongest winds will be downslope areas favored by west-northwest winds from Roscoe through Leola and Spring Creek Colony, and east of the Prairie Coteau from Veblen through the Twin Brooks area. Even with the wind direction, do not see any cold air sliding in anytime soon. 850mb temps will rebound to 3-4C this afternoon. Highlighted areas west and east of the Prairie Coteau, which seem to have been higher than originally anticipated over the last couple of days, and bumped them up a bit. These are also areas of limited to no snow left, which shows up well on the MODIS imagery from yesterday. Slightly cooler air does slide in for Tuesday, behind the exiting sfc-500mb low over eastern Lake Superior, knocking afternoon temperatures down 3-5F across the board. The coolest air. 850mb temps of -5 to -9C will be over the eastern half of the forecast area. Expect a sfc ridge to build overhead Tuesday night. Then warm southerly winds will return for Wednesday, as the ridge exits across MN. Highs will be back in the 40s to low 50s for most. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday) Issued at 318 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 The 00Z deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions were generating qpf over this cwa Sunday night (ECMWF), Feb 19, and Monday (GFS), Feb 20, in deep southerly flow. However, the GFS ensemble output was much less with qpf at the day 7-8 timeframe. "Likely" pops in Superblend for that forecast period may be a little overdone at this point. Until then, the extended is dry while an upper level ridge migrates from the western conus to the central conus, and upper level longwave troffing develops across the western conus. When the period opens, Wednesday night, low level waa is in full swing with steadily warming temperatures expected through the first half of the weekend. If clouds and precipitation potential do start to show up at the end of the extended forecast later today or tomorrow, the impact to temperatures will likely be some cooling. At this point, though, p-type would probably be rain from any system working northward through the region within a much above normal temperature regime like the one being forecast for later this week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017 VFR conditions are expected at all locations through today and tonight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dorn SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Dorn AVIATION...Dorn  FXUS63 KABR 162059 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 259 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon) Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. The 500mb trough over the western states will be slowly taking its place by mid day Friday, as a deep sfc low over Albert crosses into central Manitoba. Still, dry weather will remain over our region. Record highs for Friday range from the mid 50s to mid 50s, with most of them are again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to tie the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast to be 3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued to use available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and snow depth data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding data may also be reached over the next several days. .LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday) Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The weekend will be dominated by warmth and dry conditions. High pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the northern Rockies. This is less than favorable mixing conditions, however 850/925mb temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo, with a peak temperature of +10 to +14C at 850mb Sunday. End result is that we may see widespread upper 50s/low 60s Sunday. Sunday night, the surface gradient continues to increase with about 10mb across the state, not to mention increasing cloud cover and 1/2km winds of 30-40kts. This will keep temperatures from falling very much overnight - with the potential for lows only in the 40s! Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially, and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm us up into the 50s/60s - and blended guidance is just a few degrees off records. Consensus for the surface low track is shifting towards western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota. The track favors more showery precipitation and with a few hundred j/kg MUCAPE will keep in mention of thunder. Cold advection overnight will actually keep us mixed and mild Monday night, and by Tuesday we are back into a warm advection regime with decent mixing as a low tracks across northern North Dakota. 850/925mb temperatures remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo through the end of the forecast timeframe. The previous shift has also brought to our attention to a system just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show good consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe so will only just mention the potential for a storm to track across the region late next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 VFR ceilings and vis are expected to remain through the period for all locations but ATY. ATY has MVFR fog this morning, and could get another bout tomorrow morning. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...KF  FXUS63 KABR 162331 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 531 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 See updated aviation discussion below. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon) Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The upper level ridge overhead this afternoon, stretching from NE through north central Canada will shift eastward across MN by daybreak Friday and continue east through the day. The 500mb trough over the western states will be slowly taking its place by mid day Friday, as a deep sfc low over Albert crosses into central Manitoba. Still, dry weather will remain over our region. Record highs for Friday range from the mid to upper 50s, with most of them again from 1981. Sisseton is currently forecast to tie the record of 58 degrees from 1981, while Aberdeen is forecast to be 3 degrees shy of the 56 degree record from 1981. Continued to use available MODIS false color satellite imagery, and snow depth data to keep temperatures on the cool side where snow is the deepest. As noted in the previous discussion, record sounding data may also be reached over the next several days. .LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday) Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 The weekend will be dominated by warmth and dry conditions. High pressure departs to our south and east, and south/southeast low level flow will develop in its wake, ahead of a lee low in the northern Rockies. This is less than favorable mixing conditions, however 850/925mb temperatures are 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo, with a peak temperature of +10 to +14C at 850mb Sunday. End result is that we may see widespread upper 50s/low 60s Sunday. Sunday night, the surface gradient continues to increase with about 10mb across the state, not to mention increasing cloud cover and 1/2km winds of 30-40kts. This will keep temperatures from falling very much overnight, with the potential for lows only in the 40s. Monday, with the warm mild level temperatures overhead initially, and a surface front passing through the area, mixing will again warm us up into the 50s/60s, and blended guidance is just a few degrees off records. Consensus for the surface low track is shifting towards western South Dakota into northeast North Dakota. The track favors more showery precipitation and with a few hundred J/KG MUCAPE will keep in mention of thunder. Cold advection overnight will actually keep us mixed and mild Monday night, and by Tuesday we are back into a warm advection regime with decent mixing as a low tracks across northern North Dakota. 850/925mb temperatures remain 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo through the end of the forecast timeframe. The previous shift has also brought to our attention a system just outside the public forecast range. Models continue to show good consensus for this far out, however there are always a lot of changes between now and the 180+ hour timeframe, so will only just mention the potential for a storm to track across the region late next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017 Other than the potential for some patchy MVFR vsbys in fog at KATY late tonight into early Friday morning, VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight through the day Friday. Look for the possibility of some low level wind shear around the 2K foot level over the western CWA on Friday morning, affecting KPIR and KMBG. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Parkin  FXUS63 KABR 092045 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 A strong upper level low pressure trough and its associated surface low pressure area to our south late this afternoon will be making their way northeast through the night and Wednesday. Intense deep layer lift with this system will result in rain overspreading the entire cwa through the evening. The issue will be with the temperature profiles along with the location of the dry slot surging north into the eastern part of the region tonight. As a result, the models vary on the change over to snowfall tonight into Wednesday. The GFS was the warmest with the NAM the coolest with the thermal profile through Wednesday. The EC and Canadian were in between these two models. Believe the cooler models and the change over to snow should occur by midnight west of the James Valley and to the east of the James Valley after midnight into Wednesday morning. The dry slot will lift into our far east and will affect snowfall amounts. Otherwise, there are good indications of a good deformation zone setting up northwest of the upper low along with some mid level frontogenesis combined with some negative epv. Therefore, there could be some banded snowfall with heavier amounts. The trowal feature will be also be wrapping around the upper low pressure area. Snowfall should be heavy enough during the nighttime to be able to accumulate decently on the grassy surfaces. Roads will also see slushy accumulations. At this time, 2 to 5 inches look good with lesser amounts in the far east and southeast in the Wheaton/Watertown areas. The winds will also be strong in the 20 to 35 mph range with blowing snow not expected to be an issue. Lowered highs on Wednesday with the expected caa and snowfall occurring. Expanded Winter Weather Advisory east from the James Valley to the Sisseton Hills earlier today. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Gusty winds and snow will continue into Wednesday evening across the northeastern half of the forecast area. While the main 500mb low exits our northeastern counties Wednesday night, the large trough remains in place across the Northern Plains through Friday morning. The sun looks to return Thursday, at least glimpses of it as high pressure moves in at the surface. Looking back at the MODIS imagery, this may be the first time of significant sunshine since September 28th. It will still be cool through, with temperatures topping out in the 30s and 40s. Even with the warmup later Friday and Saturday (40s and 50s), temperatures will remain well below normal. While a brief 500mb ridge slides overhead Friday, it will quickly be replaced by zonal flow on Saturday as the next 500mb low (and surface low) shifts across south central Canada. Gusty winds look to return for Friday night (not quick mixing to the 35kt wind around 900mb) and Saturday where 15-20kt winds should be common over the western half of the forecast area. Light snow may clip the ND/SD border Sunday morning. Reinforcing cold air will move in for Sunday, with highs in the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Complex weather scenario shaping up in this forecast period as an early season winter storm moves into the region. Anticipate cigs will remain IFR through the period at all TAF sites. A more steady type rain begins to move in late this afternoon and early evening. Colder air drawn in overnight will change the rain to snow at KMBG and provide for a mixture at KPIR and KABR. A more brief period of all snow could be possible at KPIR and KABR early Wednesday morning. Eventually the mix works into KATY Wednesday morning. Visibilities will mostly be IFR but in heavier precip, LIFR vsbys will be possible...especially at KMBG and KABR. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight to 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Wednesday for SDZ003>005-009-010- 015>017-033>037-045-048-051. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for SDZ006>008-011-018-021. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mohr LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Vipond