FXUS65 KABQ 011020 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 300 AM MST WED DEC 1 2010 .DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDINESS TO PASS OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COLORADO BORDER. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OVER THE PEAKS NEAR THE BORDER BUT CHANCES PRETTY SLIM...GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START A MORE VIGOROUS WARMING TREND TODAY...AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD HELP. EXPECT SOME BREEZINESS IN THE USUAL EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS TODAY. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUDS AND MORE WARMING AS THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SHIFT OVER THE STATE. THIS TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKIER DAY BY DAY. THE RIDGE RULES SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LEAVES BEHIND A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT...WHICH OOZES SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. A COOLDOWN COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS SATURDAY IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER BUT WESTERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO ERODE A BIT. THE REAL PLUNGE IN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. STUCK WITH THE GFS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE. THE GFS TRACKS A DISTURBANCE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY...WHICH MIGHT HELP DRAW AN EASTERLY WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND SPREAD THE COLDER AIR MASS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS FARTHER WEST. THE DGEX IN PARTICULAR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...SOME OF WHICH REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. IN ANY EVENT...TEMPERATURES MODIFY BY WEDNESDAY UNDER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A 1016MB LEE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS HAS ALLOWED WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO DOMINATE THE AREA...THUS TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER AND WINDS SLIGHTLY BREEZIER. AN ISOLATED AREA OF MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BTWN CLINES CORNERS...VAUGHN...SANTA ROSA...AND LAS VEGAS BY LATE THIS MORNING HOWEVER NO FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE ISSUED. MELTING SNOWPACK EVIDENT ON THE 2013Z MODIS 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY TUESDAY IN NEARLY THE EXACT SAME AREA WILL MITIGATE SURFACE FUEL DRYNESS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20-25 PCT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO 10-15 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTH. VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WHERE FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED. THE UPR LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE FROM NW FLOW TODAY TO WESTERLY THURSDAY AND LIGHT SW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OF LIGHTER WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS AND MIDSLOPE TEMPERATURE INVERSION PATTERNS AT NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR MOST AREAS AND NEAR FAIR ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. MIN RH VALUES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE AND RANGE FROM NEAR 25 PCT ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER TO 10 PCT ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD OVER THE NW HALF AND FAIR FOR THE SE HALF. BY SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN WITH THE GFS THE FASTER SOLUTION AND THE EUROPEAN MUCH SLOWER. BIG DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RESPECT TO A SURFACE FRONT OVER THE EAST. IT DOES APPEAR THE NORTHERN MTS DO STAND THE CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT ATTM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 43 18 50 24 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 42 14 46 16 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 44 15 49 16 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 48 13 54 17 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 48 15 51 16 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 48 14 54 20 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 47 15 56 20 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 59 22 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 40 12 43 13 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 25 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 50 22 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 12 48 18 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 36 10 40 11 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 14 44 14 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 45 11 50 15 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 50 20 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 50 16 57 19 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 49 22 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 21 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 25 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 21 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 22 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 52 19 57 22 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 51 24 55 25 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 54 24 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 21 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 49 20 52 25 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 19 55 23 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 25 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 24 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 56 23 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 53 20 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 49 15 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 53 19 56 21 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 54 20 58 23 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 54 25 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 56 28 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 55 25 54 26 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 59 23 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 60 24 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 60 26 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 59 25 60 27 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 61 26 62 28 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 64 26 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 65 26 72 26 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 59 24 66 27 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 57 24 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS65 KABQ 112127 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 327 PM MDT SAT JUN 11 2011 ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES OVER COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES... ...SMOKE PLUME BILLOWING NEAR THE WALLOW FIRE AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREAS THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 462 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z FOR COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z CONTINUED TO SHOW BACKED FLOW AT CLAYTON WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. STRONG SINGLE CELL THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED NEAR MAXWELL HAS SINCE BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AS IT CROSSES INTO UNION COUNTY. WE EXPECT THIS CELL TO BE LONG TRACKED AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT PERHAPS ALL THE WAY INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL UTILIZE THE REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH UNTIL 01Z. ELSEWHERE...THE OTHER TOP STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE WALLOW AND HORSESHOE TWO FIRES. MODIS AND GOES VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SHOW PYRO CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER THE FIRE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED ALOFT WITH SMOKE PLUMES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA. HYSPLIT 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SWATH OF SMOKE WILL INFILTRATE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH VSBYS LIKELY LOWERING INTO THE 2 TO 4SM RANGE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SMOKE IS EXPECTED ALONG I-40 TO GRANTS AND GALLUP. WE WILL CONTINUE ALL AIR QUALITY ALERTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH SHARPENS UP OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST ACROSS TEXAS. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 30 TO 35 KTS OF FLOW WHICH WOULD LIKELY SEND SIGNIFICANT SMOKE INTO THE ABQ AND SAF METRO AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...WES EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PLEASE REVIEW THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE PERSISTENTLY DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO AID IN SMOKE TRANSPORT FROM THE WALLOW AND HORSESHOE TWO FIRES INTO THE CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO NUDGE INTO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE SIMPLY REMAINS VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE 7 TO 10 DAY UPCOMING PERIOD. KW && .AVIATION... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NE QUADRANT OF THE CWFA... MAINLY OVER ERN COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 02Z/SUN. ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER HAZARD FOCUSES ON SMOKE PLUME. IT IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CATRON COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO MIGRATE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST KABQ/KSAF TAFS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED. BASED ON HISTORIC EVENTS...WILL COVER WITH 2SM AND 3SM FU RESPECTIVELY FROM 00-04Z/SUN. EVENING CREW WILL MONITOR/ADJUST AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES WITH TIME. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. DPORTER && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM WILL BE A THING OF THE PAST AS POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY CURRY/ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. CONVECTION IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...LIKELY DEPARTING BY 02Z/SUN. APPEARS WETTING FOOTPRINT IS LIKELY FAIRLY SMALL WITH A FEW ANVIL LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED. THIS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCAL GRASS FIRES. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR SUNDAY AS SINGLE DIGIT...POSSIBLY LOWER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPAND FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO SIGNIFICANTLY DROP INTO SINGLE DIGIT RANGE. A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN ZONES AS WELL AS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HAVE OPTED TO GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MET GUIDANCE BASED ON LATEST PERFORMANCE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND INTO THE CLINES CORNERS AREA. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS ACTIVITY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM SANTA ROSA TO TUCUMCARI...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THREE HOURS MAY BE QUESTIONABLE ATTM. WILL UPGRADE NMZ107 TO A WARNING BUT LEAVE NMZ108 A WATCH DUE TO A LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE. DUE TO THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS...ONE MAY FORESEE UPGRADING DUE TO ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH A HIGH HAINES AND EXCELLENT VENTILATION. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS ONE TO THREE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE PROGGED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG FOR MONDAY...HOWEVER MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WAS TEMPTED TO POST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE HIGHER SPEEDS AT 700MB. FOR COMPARISION...700MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 30KTS ON SUN WHILE ONLY 20KTS PER THE NAM40 FOR MONDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH HAINES COUPLED WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION. WINDS WILL START TO RETARD FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AS THE UPR LEVEL WESTERLIES SUBSIDE COMPLIMENTS OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL IMPACT THE ERN PLAINS FOR TUES/ TUES NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME LIMITED RELIEF IN THE HUMIDITY RANGE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WHICH MAY INCREASE WINDS... ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ONCE AGAIN. MAY NEED TO INCREASE SPEEDS ACCORDINGLY IN THE GRIDS IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. DPORTER && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 49 88 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 36 82 36 80 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 43 86 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 38 85 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 37 82 37 79 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 41 87 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 42 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 48 90 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 35 76 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 51 85 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 81 46 79 / 5 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 36 71 41 70 / 5 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 76 39 75 / 5 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 41 84 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 47 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 49 92 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 52 87 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 89 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 93 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 94 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 93 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 52 96 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 52 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 57 96 57 96 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 55 93 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 90 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 61 93 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 59 83 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 52 88 56 87 / 20 0 0 0 RATON........................... 50 92 51 90 / 20 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 48 93 51 91 / 20 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 51 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 55 95 59 96 / 20 0 0 0 ROY............................. 54 92 57 91 / 20 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 61 100 63 98 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 60 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 59 101 62 100 / 5 0 5 0 CLOVIS.......................... 60 99 65 99 / 5 0 5 0 PORTALES........................ 61 100 65 101 / 5 0 5 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 61 99 66 100 / 5 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 63 103 65 103 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 57 98 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 57 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ108. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107. && $$ 17/46  FXUS65 KABQ 132145 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 245 PM MST FRI JAN 13 2012 .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE TEMPS AND THE PAIR OF SYSTEMS SCOOTING ACROSS NM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BEING VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...THUS...WITH CONTINUED DOWNSLOPING DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST FOR TOMORROW. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY AS WELL...THANKS TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...KICKER SYSTEM WILL HELP EJECT THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC EASTWARD. AS IT MOVES EAST...IT WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO A WAVE. AS IT APPROACHES THE STATE ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS WILL THE GRADIENT ALOFT. THUS...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WEST SLOPES SHOULD BENEFIT MOST FROM THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH ATTM...ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. KICKER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS COLORADO MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY WEST SLOPES...THRU LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH SNOW TO WARRANT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. PERHAPS THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WIND ON MONDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE BOASTING 700 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60KT...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 7 DEG C/KM...AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS ALL POINTS TO A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AS WELL AS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY START QUITE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS. AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES. SYSTEM NUMBER TWO MOVES OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING AND AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS...COOLING TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES FROM MONDAYS READINGS. QUIETER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. 34 && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 50 && .FIRE WEATHER... VENTILATION WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BIT MORE AND MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT REMAINS A CONCERN AND HAS DRIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND A POOR TO MODERATE RECOVERIES ACROSS MOST MID SLOPE AND UPPER RIDGE AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE STATE INTO SATURDAY. QUITE A FEW AREAS WILL SEE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH THE SNOW FIELD AREAS NEAR GRANTS AND WITHIN THE ESTANCIA VALLEY /AS INDICATED BY MODIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/ WILL REMAIN A LITTLE MORE MOIST. WEATHER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING THE FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THAT TREND IN MONDAY. MADE VERY FEW TWEAKS TO THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WIND GRIDS. THE STRONGEST BREEZES SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BASED ON THE MIN RH FORECAST LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SANTA ROSA AND THE TEXAS STATE LINE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX FORECAST IS DEPICTED TO BE A 5 AND MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THAT AREA SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THERE. ALTHOUGH SNOW IN DECEMBER HAS HELPED TO FLATTEN SOME OF THE GRASSIER AREAS LEFT OVER FROM THE SHORTENED GROWING SEASON IN 2011. VENTILATION WOULD CERTAINLY IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AND MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE LAPSE RATES FOR THAT DAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S RUN. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BIG WIND DAY AS MODELS FAVOR A 50 TO 60 MPH 10000 FOOT AIRFLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE VENTILATION AREAWIDE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT CATEGORY. MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT WITH RAPIDLY PUSHING OUT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INITIALLY STARTING THE DAY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL STILL BE TANGLING WITH CLOUDS THANKS TO THE MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE UP THAT WAY. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD MAKE FOR A NEAR CRITICAL DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD ONCE THE CIRRUS SHOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DEWPOINT AND SUBSEQUENT RH FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 20 PCT BUT CANT RULE OUT SOME UPPER TEENS WHICH WOULD MAKE CONDITIONS A BIT MORE CRITICAL THERE. DID RAISE WIND SPEED VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND FOR MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN...LOOK TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BASED ON BLOCKING FLOW AND LAPSE RATE CONSIDERATIONS /AKA UPSLOPE/. MODELS ARE NOW DEPICTING A DOUBLE PERIOD FOR THE PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY STARTING OUT WITH THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OF THE MEAN JET STREAM OR TROUGH PASSAGE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHWEST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHTER SHOWERS WOULD BE FOUND ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BE TOO SHADOWED WITH MAINLY VIRGA OR HIGH BASED PASSING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DRYING OUT THE FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED TO BE MODERATELY STRONG SO THIS WOULD FAVOR VENTILATION A LITTLE BETTER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING. CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST SHOWS QUITE A FEW FAIR/S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME GOOD TO VERY GOOD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE SURFACE WINDS WOULD BE A BIT STRONGER. TEMPERATURES WOULD START OUT COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY BUT WARM TO NEAR AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. A SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN...ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY...MENTIONED ABOVE IS DEPICTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...SUSPECT THE FLOW WOULD LARGELY BE DRY WITH JUST A FEW WEAK WAVES PROVIDING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE POOR WITHIN THE VALLEYS BUT A TAD BETTER ACROSS THE HIGHER RIDGES AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WOULD GRADUALLY WARM AND ALLOW FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PLAINS. THE UPCOMING PATTERN AND PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LATE DECEMBER IS LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO THE PATTERN WE OBSERVED IN JANUARY OF 2011. 50 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 8 44 13 49 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... -1 45 5 47 / 0 0 0 5 CUBA............................ 8 48 13 48 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 0 50 7 50 / 0 0 0 5 EL MORRO........................ 10 48 14 47 / 0 0 0 5 GRANTS.......................... -6 34 -1 34 / 0 0 0 5 QUEMADO......................... 13 50 17 51 / 0 0 0 5 GLENWOOD........................ 20 58 20 59 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 1 42 9 42 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 18 45 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 18 48 22 45 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... -3 37 2 35 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 12 39 14 40 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... -3 39 4 42 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 2 44 7 43 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 16 49 20 48 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 14 50 18 51 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 16 47 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 15 48 18 47 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 21 47 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 22 48 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 18 49 21 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 19 48 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 13 49 18 54 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 18 48 21 50 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 21 51 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 14 45 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 16 45 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 42 17 44 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 13 41 20 43 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 17 47 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 15 54 20 55 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 21 54 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 14 49 20 50 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 10 58 16 60 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 16 53 18 54 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 17 55 22 55 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 23 60 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 21 54 24 58 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 23 59 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 21 58 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 19 61 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 24 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 22 61 25 64 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 19 63 24 67 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 19 59 21 66 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 19 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 21 56 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 34/50  FXUS65 KABQ 252047 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 247 PM MDT SUN MAR 25 2012 .DISCUSSION... SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WAS NOTED ON THE 12Z KEPZ AND MMCU SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING...THOUGH NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE OVERALL. REGARDLESS...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD. HIGH BASED CU HAS DEVELOPED FROM KSRR NORTHWARD TO KCQC...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. RADAR DATA INDICATES SOME PRECIP IS FALLING...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS...ITS NOT LIKELY MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. ADDITIONALLY...THUS FAR...ITS NOT BEEN VIGOROUS ENOUGH FOR ANY LIGHTNING PRODUCTION EITHER. STRUGGLED WITH WHAT TO DO WITH POPS/WX FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NAM HAS REALLY BACKED OFF ON PRODUCING ANY QPF ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...GFS HAS AS WELL...THOUGH STILL PRODUCES SOME. OPTED TO KEEP 10-POPS/DRY T/GUSTY WIND MENTION FROM KCQC SOUTH...WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS WITH LARGE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. REMOVED POPS NORTH OF THIS AREA THOUGH KEPT DRY T AND SPRINKLES MENTION FOR THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE SOME...THUS REMOVED POPS BUT AGAIN LEFT DRY T/SPRINKLES MENTION. NOT TERRIBLY CONVINCED THERE WILL BE THUNDER...HOWEVER. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MODERATED TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST TODAY... HOWEVER...THE OTHER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY TIED OR BROKEN THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE...INCLUDING THE ABQ SUNPORT...SANTA FE...RATON...LAS VEGAS...CLAYTON...AND TUCUMCARI. AS SHORTWAVE GLANCES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP AND SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE IN THE EAST THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TSTM NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER BEFORE THE PSUEDO-DRYLINE PUSHES INTO TEXAS. OTHERWISE...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WIND. WILL LIKELY NEED A FEW WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE SFC GRADIENT IS THE STRONGEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE GULF MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK INTO OUR SE ZONES UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. IT MAY SPARK A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WHERE BETTER GULF MOISTURE RESIDES THURSDAY AFTN/EVE ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER. OTHERWISE... TUESDAY-FRIDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. 34 && .AVIATION... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER LOW/TROUGH TRACK INTO GREAT BASIN/COLORADO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS A WEAK MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME MAY SPARK ISOLD -TSRA G40KT. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT BUT MAY NOT REACH THE MAJORITY OF CHAVES OR ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. MOISTURE TO BE SWEPT EASTWARD MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH/LOW TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN/COLORADO TONIGHT/MONDAY. WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WON/T RECOVER TONIGHT IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL...WHERE ONLY FAIR TO POOR RECOVERIES AREA EXPECTED. IN THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PLAINS RECOVERIES WILL BE BETTER AS AT LEAST ONE MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BACK TO NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS STILL INSISTING A WEAK PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS IS NOT VERY OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT THE MODIS AIRMASS RGB/GOES H20 IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOMETHING ORIGINATING FROM WHERE MODELS INDICATE THE SOURCE REGION IS LOCATED. MORNING MMCU SOUNDING DOES SHOW LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. WITH A FEW BUILDUPS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS OF THIS WRITING...POTENTIAL FOR DRY CONVECTION TO REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS SWEPT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS BORDER...DRY OTHERWISE...AND WINDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...WHICH SHOULD BOOST MIN RH VALUES A FEW PERCENT IN THE WEST. HAINES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 6 SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY OVER THE CURRENT WARNED AREA MONDAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MAKE SHORT APPEARANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT AND AT BEST FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR ARE POSSIBLE NORTHWEST. FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE FRIDAY WEATHER PATTERN...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...NO FOOLING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 40 64 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 36 64 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 36 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 29 61 23 66 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 27 60 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 31 67 23 70 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 34 65 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 27 69 27 73 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 31 58 24 59 / 5 5 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 67 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 43 66 36 66 / 5 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 66 28 67 / 5 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 36 56 27 56 / 5 5 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 59 24 59 / 5 5 0 0 TAOS............................ 34 66 26 66 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 43 66 33 67 / 5 5 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 36 75 27 74 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 46 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 70 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 73 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 44 75 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 48 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 42 81 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 68 36 68 / 5 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 43 71 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 70 35 69 / 5 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 68 36 68 / 10 5 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 42 71 38 72 / 5 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 38 73 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 43 66 41 68 / 10 5 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 50 71 36 71 / 5 5 0 0 RATON........................... 42 77 33 76 / 5 5 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 47 77 37 75 / 5 5 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 43 70 37 70 / 5 5 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 50 79 44 77 / 5 5 0 0 ROY............................. 50 76 41 75 / 5 5 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 56 82 40 80 / 5 5 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 52 80 43 79 / 5 5 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 55 84 45 85 / 5 5 5 0 CLOVIS.......................... 50 80 43 82 / 5 10 5 0 PORTALES........................ 54 81 43 83 / 5 10 5 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 49 86 41 87 / 5 5 5 0 ROSWELL......................... 53 86 42 87 / 5 5 5 0 PICACHO......................... 50 81 44 83 / 5 5 0 0 ELK............................. 46 74 41 77 / 5 5 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103. && $$ 34/99  FXUS65 KABQ 090918 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 318 AM MDT THU AUG 9 2012 .DISCUSSION... THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE E PLAINS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWEST AND ENVELOP NEARLY THE ENTIRE STATE TODAY. CIRA BLENDED PERCENT OF NORMAL PWAT IMAGERY INDICATES VALUES NEAR 75PCT OF NORMAL ACROSS A VAST AREA OF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THE 00Z RAOB AT KAMA SHOWS EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE 600MB WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT KABQ ABOVE 500MB. EXPERIMENTAL MODIS RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM NASA SPORT THIS MORNING SHOWS THIS VERY WELL. THE BULK OF 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE AS WELL AND WAS TEMPTED TO REMOVE JUST ABOUT ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST TODAY...HOWEVER SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE AZ BORDER AND THE NW MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL TREND UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WEDNESDAYS HIGHS STATEWIDE. THE CURRENT 597DM H5 HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL WEAKEN TO 594DM FRIDAY AND SAG SLIGHTLY SOUTH. THE UPPER DRY WEDGE WILL ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO AZ WHILE A WEAK VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE SALT LAKE AREA DIVES SE ACROSS COLORADO AND NE NM ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE WHEREAS MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THINGS ON THE DRIER SIDE. CONTINUED TREND FROM DAY SHIFT TO BACK OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WEAKENING THE H5 RIDGE EVEN FURTHER TO 592DM. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN NW FLOW OVER THE NE PLAINS SO FOCUS FOR GREATEST STORM COVERAGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT RANGE BEHIND THIS EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL FORCE A FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS TRENDING MORE VIGOROUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS AND APPEARS TO BE WETTER THAN OUR LAST FRONT OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST FORCING THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EAST TOWARD TX. THIS MAY POTENTIALLY FORCE A PERIOD OF BETTER STORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE EASTERLY WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVING WEST INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE THEN SLIDES NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL MONSOON BURST PATTERN TO FINISH OFF NEXT WEEK. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... WITH THE 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...AND A PRONOUNCED REGION OF VARY DRY MID AND LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADING AROUND THE HIGH FROM EASTERN NM TO SOUTHWESTERN NM...THERE IS A MEAGER CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME RECYCLED MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH COULD RESULT IN A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FROM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...EXCEPT THE DRIEST MID LEVEL AIR WILL SHIFT OVER SE AZ BY THEN...AND THE POCKET OF RECYCLED MOISTURE COULD SPREAD TO INCLUDE NE NM WITH A MIX OF WET AND RELATIVELY DRY STORMS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL CRATER TO THE LOW TEENS AT MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE NE PLAINS FRIDAY...WHERE READINGS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL VARY FROM A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVER THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ELONGATE ALONG AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL AZ TO S CENTRAL NM. THE RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT OVER NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CROSS WITH AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AIDING THE CONVECTION WILL BE A MOISTER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT MAY DROP INTO THE FAR NE PLAINS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WONT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS UNTIL SUNDAY...WHEN AIDED BY OUTFLOWS FROM ANOTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...IT WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD KEEP THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION...ACTIVE WITH WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...PARTS OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE HIGHS AROUND 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. READINGS WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT WILL BOOST MIN HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER SOUTHERN NM...THEN OVER TX...DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. AS MOISTURE RECYCLES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND SOMEWHAT WETTING STORMS. DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...MONSOON MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WOULD CAUSE GREATER WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. 44 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE RIDGE DOMINATING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER CENTRAL COLORADO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM 19Z ONWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN HALF OF NM...AND CARRIED IN TAFS AT FMN...GUP...AND SAF. EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL REDUCE THUNDER COVERAGE NEAR ABQ THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS AND VIZ THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 97 68 96 65 / 5 10 10 10 DULCE........................... 90 54 89 53 / 10 10 20 20 CUBA............................ 91 56 91 56 / 5 5 10 10 GALLUP.......................... 92 59 89 60 / 10 10 5 5 EL MORRO........................ 83 55 81 57 / 20 20 10 5 GRANTS.......................... 90 56 90 59 / 5 5 5 5 QUEMADO......................... 91 55 90 56 / 20 20 10 5 GLENWOOD........................ 92 56 90 56 / 10 10 0 0 CHAMA........................... 84 52 83 51 / 30 30 30 30 LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 60 87 59 / 5 5 10 10 PECOS........................... 84 60 82 60 / 5 5 10 20 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 83 55 81 53 / 20 20 20 30 RED RIVER....................... 76 50 76 50 / 20 20 30 30 ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 50 78 50 / 20 20 30 30 TAOS............................ 88 55 85 54 / 10 10 20 20 MORA............................ 81 57 79 57 / 10 10 10 20 ESPANOLA........................ 94 59 93 59 / 5 5 10 10 SANTA FE........................ 88 61 87 61 / 5 5 10 10 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 63 91 63 / 5 5 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 65 92 66 / 0 5 5 5 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 67 94 67 / 0 5 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 63 97 64 / 0 5 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 65 97 66 / 0 5 0 5 LOS LUNAS....................... 95 63 94 64 / 0 5 0 5 RIO RANCHO...................... 98 65 96 66 / 0 5 5 5 SOCORRO......................... 99 65 99 67 / 0 5 0 5 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 60 90 60 / 5 5 5 10 TIJERAS......................... 93 60 93 60 / 5 5 5 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 58 86 58 / 0 5 5 10 CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 60 88 60 / 5 5 5 10 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 60 91 62 / 0 5 5 5 CARRIZOZO....................... 92 64 92 64 / 0 5 5 5 RUIDOSO......................... 83 57 83 58 / 5 5 10 10 CAPULIN......................... 89 58 88 60 / 10 10 20 20 RATON........................... 98 62 96 63 / 10 10 20 20 SPRINGER........................ 95 63 93 64 / 5 10 10 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 90 59 88 59 / 5 10 10 20 CLAYTON......................... 94 63 94 68 / 0 5 10 20 ROY............................. 92 64 91 66 / 0 10 10 20 CONCHAS......................... 98 69 97 71 / 0 0 5 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 99 68 98 69 / 0 0 0 10 TUCUMCARI....................... 100 71 98 72 / 0 0 5 10 CLOVIS.......................... 97 66 95 67 / 0 0 0 5 PORTALES........................ 98 66 96 68 / 0 0 0 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 98 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 5 ROSWELL......................... 99 72 98 70 / 0 0 0 5 PICACHO......................... 94 62 94 63 / 0 0 0 5 ELK............................. 88 58 88 59 / 0 0 5 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER/44/SHY  FXUS65 KABQ 120930 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 330 AM MDT SUN AUG 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... AT 09Z THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM NEAR CLINES CORNERS EAST TO SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI. THERE IS SOME DECENT MOMENTUM BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH NEAR 20 KTS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RISING ABOUT 5F BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT EXTENDS UP TO ABOUT 700MB PER 00Z NAM BUFKIT AT KTCC AND KLVS. LATEST MODIS NIGHT-TIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS LINING UP WITH THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND LINE UP WELL WITH THE MID LEVEL MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS TO PRODUCE SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NM. RAISED POPS EVEN FURTHER FOR THE EAST SLOPES. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER AFTER SATURDAYS RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BIG CHALLENGE WILL BE TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY WITH PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. THE GFS DEPICTS LARGE AREAS OF QPF ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MOVING SOUTH EACH EVENING WHERE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS. HPC 12HR QPF LINES UP WELL WITH GFS SO HAVE RAISED POPS ANOTHER FEW POINTS FOR AREAS IN VCNTY OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN 5 TO 10F AREAWIDE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC AREA THAT WOULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT HEAVY WORDING FROM ZONES FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THRU THE WEEKEND IS BEGINNING TO CREEP INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY AS MODELS ARE GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO ABOUT 588DM AND SHIFTED SW INTO SW NM/SE AZ BY WEDNESDAY. RECYCLE MODE WILL TAKE OVER IN THIS PATTERN WITH NW FLOW OVER THE STATE. GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT PLOWING SOUTH INTO THE E PLAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BECOME ANOTHER FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE. THE BIG QUESTION IS STILL WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL END UP OVER NM AS A DEEP TROPICAL WAVE ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE NORTH ACROSS MEXICO. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...INCREASING HUMIDITIES SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORN AND COOLING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NE AND PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL NM. AFTN HIGH TEMPS THOUGH STILL EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY E CENTRAL NM WHERE MAXIMUMS STILL LIKELY TO BE PRETTY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. WITH FRONT COZIED UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS AFTN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...AND WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL...WILL INCREASE FROM THERE EAST THIS AFTN AND EVE. FRONT WILL MOVE WEST THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE ARIZONA BORDER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A BIT MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MON COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS FOR MOST OF N AND CENTRAL NM AND WITH LARGER WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS. MOST CERTAINLY BETTER NIGHTTIME RH RECOVERIES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TONIGHT AND MORE SO MON NIGHT. RECYCLING OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUE WITH THAT TREND CONTINUING THROUGH WED...THOUGH COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WED. EVEN STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MARCHES INTO NE NM ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS ONE MAY BE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENT E NM FRONT. ANOTHER MOISTURE INTRUSION BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD KICK UP THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST 5 TO 15 DEGREES OF FURTHER COOLING...IF NOT MORE. 43 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW LATER SUNDAY AT BOTH KABQ AND KSAF...WITH AN EAST GAP WIND FORECAST AT KABQ SUNDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH AWW CRITERIA WIND GUSTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED SUNDAY EVENING AT KABQ...GUSTS NEAR 30KTS ARE LIKELY. 11 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 96 65 93 64 / 10 30 20 30 DULCE........................... 89 52 87 52 / 20 40 40 30 CUBA............................ 94 53 88 53 / 20 60 50 40 GALLUP.......................... 92 58 88 58 / 20 30 20 30 EL MORRO........................ 86 53 80 54 / 30 30 50 40 GRANTS.......................... 91 54 85 53 / 30 30 50 40 QUEMADO......................... 90 56 91 54 / 30 30 30 30 GLENWOOD........................ 95 58 92 57 / 10 20 20 20 CHAMA........................... 82 52 78 52 / 40 50 60 40 LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 59 83 57 / 30 60 60 40 PECOS........................... 80 58 78 58 / 60 60 50 40 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 54 75 51 / 50 50 50 40 RED RIVER....................... 72 49 68 49 / 60 60 60 50 ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 47 71 47 / 60 60 60 50 TAOS............................ 86 53 83 53 / 30 50 50 40 MORA............................ 76 55 73 56 / 60 50 60 40 ESPANOLA........................ 92 59 88 58 / 10 40 40 40 SANTA FE........................ 88 58 83 57 / 30 50 40 40 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 61 85 60 / 30 50 40 40 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 63 89 62 / 10 50 40 40 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 67 91 65 / 5 40 30 40 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 65 92 62 / 5 40 30 40 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 65 92 65 / 5 50 30 40 LOS LUNAS....................... 95 65 91 64 / 5 40 30 40 RIO RANCHO...................... 95 65 91 64 / 5 50 40 40 SOCORRO......................... 98 65 96 63 / 5 30 40 30 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 56 86 58 / 50 60 50 40 TIJERAS......................... 92 59 89 58 / 30 50 40 40 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 59 84 59 / 50 60 50 40 CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 57 82 58 / 60 60 60 40 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 59 86 59 / 50 50 50 40 CARRIZOZO....................... 95 63 90 63 / 30 40 40 30 RUIDOSO......................... 86 57 80 58 / 50 40 60 30 CAPULIN......................... 82 56 83 56 / 30 20 40 40 RATON........................... 88 58 90 60 / 40 30 30 40 SPRINGER........................ 87 61 86 62 / 40 30 30 40 LAS VEGAS....................... 83 57 82 58 / 60 50 60 40 CLAYTON......................... 90 62 89 64 / 20 20 20 30 ROY............................. 85 65 87 65 / 20 20 30 30 CONCHAS......................... 93 69 92 70 / 20 30 20 30 SANTA ROSA...................... 96 67 94 68 / 20 40 20 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 98 70 96 72 / 20 20 20 20 CLOVIS.......................... 96 67 92 69 / 20 20 20 20 PORTALES........................ 98 68 94 69 / 20 20 20 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 97 69 93 71 / 20 40 20 20 ROSWELL......................... 101 71 96 71 / 20 30 20 20 PICACHO......................... 96 61 90 61 / 20 40 30 20 ELK............................. 92 58 85 58 / 40 40 30 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER/43/11  FXUS65 KABQ 271148 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 548 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2012 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE ACTIVE DAY AGAIN TODAY WITH LOCALLY STRONG SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY DRY GUSTY -SHRA/TSRA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD. MODIS RGB IMAGERY AND OBS VERIFY SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS FROM KRTN EAST TO KCAO. EXPECT THIS AREA TO BURN OFF QUICKLY AFT SUNRISE. CURRENTLY SOME -TSRA EXITING EAST ALONG THE TX STATE LINE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THRU 15Z...BUT THEN QUICKLY REDEVELOP AFT 19Z WHERE REMNANT BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS INSTABILITY. CARRIED ONLY VCTS AT KTCC AND KROW SINCE CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT ANY SPECIFIC SITE WILL ACTUALLY BE IMPACTED. FARTHER WEST MAINLY DEALING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS AND A COUPLE VCSH BY LATE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS. GUYER && .PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT THU SEP 27 2012... THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE...ROUGHLY...WILL BE WHERE MUCH OF THE ACTION...ESPEC PCPN AND STORM INTENSITY...WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS A FAIRLY DECENT COMBO OF JET RELATED DYNAMICS... EFFECTS OF A BACK DOOR FRONT AND POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IMPACT NE AND PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL NM AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND PARTIALLY TROPICAL MOISTURE AFFECTS THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. FIRST OFF THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS ACROSS NE AND FAR E CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO AT LEAST MID EVE. THOSE AREAS LOOKING AT SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF WINDS WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEEDS GOING UP AS WELL...THE SFC BOUNDARY WHICH COULD MIX BACK NE A BIT...BUT LIKELY STILL STAY SOMEWHERE IN NE NM...AS WELL AS DECENT LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA. THUS FEEL SPC OUTLOOK LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND THUS ADDED THE SEVERE MENTION IN WX GRIDS FOR ROUGHLY RATON TO TUCUMCARI AND EASTWARD. KEPT APPROX SAME AREA IN THE RISK AREA INTO MID EVE...THEN ELIMINATED IT. BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY AS TO EXACT COVERAGE AREA AND HOW LONG IT WILL LINGER INTO/THRU THE EVE. IN THE SE WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE...WITH SOME TROPICAL INPUT...WILL SEE PERHAPS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH MORE LOCALIZED INSTANCES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN NE NM AS WELL WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MODEST TO MODERATE UPSLOPE FLOW THERE. AS IS NORMALLY THE CASE...ACTIVITY INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER TONIGHT...BUT FRONT MAY ADVANCE SOME TO S AND W AND THAT MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE E. HOWEVER THE VERY LATEST NAM MODEL DATA IS MUCH LESS BULLISH ON BACK DOOR ADVANCEMENT FOR TONIGHT SO ANY MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT TO AND ESPECIALLY W OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN NOW LOOKS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THUS LATER SHIFTS WILL WANT TO SEE IF THIS NEW TREND CONTINUES AND MAKE ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND QPF ETC ESPEC W OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FOR THE FRI TO SAT PERIOD. WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING SHUNTED MORE TO THE SE AND E OF THE STATE AS NW MID AND UPPER FLOW TAKES OVER...DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL BE JUST A MEMORY FOR THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OR SO WEAK RIPPLES ALOFT IN THE NW TO INCREASINGLY N FLOW OVER WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A DRYING TENDENCY ACROSS THE STATE WITH EVENTUALLY SOME DAYTIME SLIGHT TO MODERATE WARMING. AS EARLY AS MON THEN THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS TO BE A DRY PERIOD STATEWIDE AS DEWPOINTS PLUMMET AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. DID GO A LITTLE BELOW MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MINIMUMS FROM MON ON TO ALLOW FOR THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LENGTHENING NIGHTS. 43 .FIRE WEATHER... A BATTLE BETWEEN TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NE OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND DRY AIR OOZING SE INTO THE NW HALF OF NM WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A CHALLENGING WIND AND RH FORECAST THRU THE WEEKEND. DAILY ROUNDS OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE ACROSS THE REGION WILL WAFFLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION COMPLICATING WHERE THE GRADIENT FOR WETTING RAINFALL SETS UP. CURRENTLY HEAVIER STORMS OVER THE E PLAINS ARE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN WITH RATHER LARGE FOOTPRINTS FOR QUAY...CURRY...AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. RECOVERIES RANGE FROM EXCELLENT ACROSS THE PLAINS TO GOOD ALONG THE AZ BORDER...WHICH WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LIKEWISE MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND 20S ALONG THE AZ BORDER TO THE 40S ALONG THE TX STATE LINE. THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS TIME FOR GOOD WETTING RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS WILL BE OVER THE SE HALF...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO OOZE WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY FOR BETTER STORM CHANCES. VENT RATES WILL BE NEAR POOR ACROSS THE EAST AND GOOD OUT WEST AS HAINES VALUES FOLLOW SUIT WITH LOW VALUES OUT EAST AND MODERATE OUT WEST. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN INCREASING DRY NW FLOW OVER WESTERN NM SUNDAY THEN INTO THE EASTERN HALF BY MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING ONE FINAL SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE PLAINS ON A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE UPPER HIGH...THUS DRYING OUT THE ENTIRE REGION CONSIDERABLY. MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL FAVOR CHILLY MIN TEMPS WITH MILD AFTERNOON HIGHS. STRONG MID SLOPE INVERSIONS WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE PICTURE IN THIS SCENARIO. VENT RATES AS A RESULT FALL TO POOR FOR THE WEST AND REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE EAST. GUYER && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ GUYER/43  FXUS65 KABQ 230936 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 336 AM MDT TUE OCT 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH NEAR RECORD AND SOME RECORD BREAKING HIGHS...PARTICULARLY EAST..AND INCREASING WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN A BIG CHANGE TO COOLER/COLDER WEATHER. PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE VERY PALTRY THOUGH AND LIMITED MAINLY TO THE NE QUARTER... THAT MAINLY DURING THE THU NIGHT TO FRI PERIOD. WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. SFC WINDS WILL BE UP A GOOD 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 MPH ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE MOUNTAINTOPS TONIGHT. EVEN WARMER IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A NUMBER OF RECORD HIGHS LIKELY. WINDS TO BE HIGHER STILL WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY ADVISORY LEVEL...OR NEARLY SO...WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NE THIRD OR SO OF NM...BUT STILL TOO CLOSE TO THE MARGINAL RANGE TO CONSIDER MORE THAN 24 HRS OUT. LOOKING AT MODIS RGB AIR MASS H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY GOING ON OVER TO A SLIGHT DISTANCE E OF SANGRES...BUT WHILE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR NOW...NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE TOO MUCH OF A PROB. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR TWO MOVING THROUGH A LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC AND POLAR FRONTS...WILL THEN IMPACT NM WED NIGHT AND THU. TEMPERATURES THU WILL BE BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST AND ROUGHLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER IN THE NW. A REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL BRING EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA. SADLY...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH PRECIPITATION COMBINING WITH THE COLDER AIR. A LITTLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE...LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS LOWER TERRAIN. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY WITH A CHILLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED SOME WARMING FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS THEREAFTER. 43 && .FIRE WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...A FEW HOURS OF LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST PLAINS ACROSS SAN MIGUEL AND MORA COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING IN PATTERN EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE BROAD PATTERN FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. CIRCULATION ABOUT SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY. WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND SHEAR RAPIDLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO NORTHWEST TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK. WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGING IN BRINGING NEXT SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND INTO NEW MEXICO. GFS MODEL FASTER TO BRING WAVE INTO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH ECMWF RUNNING ABOUT 36 HOURS LATER FOR TROUGH PUSH ONSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP EYE ON RUNS TO FOLLOW AND SEEK BETTER CONSENSUS. FOR TODAY...WARMING AND DRYING CONTINUING WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO NEAR 10 PCT IN THE EAST. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND PRODUCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITIES OVER THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR ACROSS SAN MIGUEL AND MORA COUNTIES...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AFTER SUNSET AS HUMIDITIES RECOVER. TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TYPICAL FOR THE WEST. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH ONLY FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS BASE OF DIGGING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 10 PCT OVER THE AREA...AND BROAD AREA OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING GENERALLY FROM INTERSTATE 25 EASTWARD...AND INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO. WILL HOIST FIRE WEATHER WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER. LITTLE CHANGE TO NEAR RECORD SETTING HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST...RUNNING TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE LATE OCTOBER NORMALS...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST. NO VENTILATION PROBLEMS. MAINLY FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SWINGING RAPIDLY EAST AND SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF FAST MOVING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A 20 TO 30 DEGREE DROP OVER THE EAST...WITH MORE MODEST DECREASES IN THE WEST. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BOOST EASTERN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS IN THE TEENS PCT. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH WILL MAKE MAJOR SWING FROM THE HEAT TO 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW LATE OCTOBER NORMALS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. DETERIORATING VENTILATION CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE SUMMITS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL SET UP FREEZES OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT OVER THE EAST...FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE WEST. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...BROAD WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD LATE OCTOBER NORMALS. A VERY CHILLY FRIDAY OVERNIGHT SHOULD DELIVER HARD FREEZES TO MOST ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LAST OF THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRETTY MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND SOME SNOW WORKING OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GENERAL DRYING TREND UNDERWAY WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BACK INTO THE 20S PCT OVER THE EAST AND CENTRAL...WITH TEENS PCT OVER THE WEST. MARGINAL VENTILATION CONDITIONS FRIDAY IMPROVING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING POOR OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SHY && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE GREAT BASIN...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGHER PEAKS AND IN THE LEE OF THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. LCL GUSTS TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM NEAR KRTN SOUTH TO NEAR KLVS. GUSTY W TO SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR KGUP AND FROM KLVS...KCQC TO KTCC...WHERE GUSTS TO 35KTS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 73 39 70 32 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 68 28 67 26 / 0 0 5 5 CUBA............................ 70 37 69 31 / 0 0 0 5 GALLUP.......................... 71 36 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 69 34 67 26 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 73 38 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 72 41 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 78 39 77 34 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 64 31 62 29 / 5 0 5 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 46 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 68 43 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 38 67 34 / 0 0 5 5 RED RIVER....................... 61 34 59 29 / 0 0 5 5 ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 35 63 28 / 0 0 0 5 TAOS............................ 69 34 68 30 / 0 0 0 5 MORA............................ 70 43 69 37 / 0 0 0 5 ESPANOLA........................ 74 39 73 33 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 71 42 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 43 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 48 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 51 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 46 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 48 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 78 45 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 76 48 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 82 49 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 46 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 72 47 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 40 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 44 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 47 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 79 48 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 73 49 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 77 42 77 35 / 0 0 0 5 RATON........................... 80 39 80 35 / 0 0 0 5 SPRINGER........................ 81 42 79 35 / 0 0 0 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 77 43 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 85 49 83 36 / 0 0 0 5 ROY............................. 81 47 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 86 50 85 42 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 84 50 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 88 52 89 45 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 86 51 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 86 50 87 47 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 87 51 89 47 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 90 53 93 50 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 86 50 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 79 52 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. && $$ 43  FXUS65 KABQ 232114 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 314 PM MDT TUE OCT 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... ONE MORE WARM DAY ON WED THEN MUCH COOLER...COLDER THU AND FRI. STRONG WINDS LATER TON THROUGH WED NIGHT OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO GENERATE DECENT SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TO LAS VEGAS AND RATON...AS WELL AS FROM MORIARTY TO TUCUMCARI. MODIS RGB AIRMASS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION CONTINUING OVER NE NM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED INTO THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ALL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN...WITH A RECORD HIGH ALREADY IN RATON. WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP EARLY TONIGHT ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN TOPS AND PLOW DOWN THE E SLOPES ONTO THE NE HIGHLANDS EARLY WED. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS WED. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN TOP ZONES AND E SLOPES...RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA FOR LATE TON THROUGH WED AND FOR THE CNTRL... NE AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS WED AM THROUGH WED PM. THE OTHER WEATHER STORY WED WILL BE THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MANY NEAR RECORD OR RECORD BREAKING HIGHS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SANGRES WED NIGHT AND INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY ADVISORY LEVELS. MEANWHILE A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING TO OUR N WED NIGHT WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT RACING ACROSS WRN NM AND A POLAR FRONT SLAMMING INTO THE NE PART OF THE STATE. THE TWO WILL COMBINE TO BRING MUCH COOLER...COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA THU...INCLUDING NEARLY 40 DEGREES COLDER AT CLAYTON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY THU. CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE STATE THU NIGHT WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NE. ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. IT WILL BE CHILLY ON FRI WITH HIGHS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT IN THE SW. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE...HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRI NIGHT. THE WEEKEND WILL START CHILLY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ESPECIALLY ON SUN. IT WILL BE DRY AREA WIDE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NOT TOO MUCH WIND. CHJ && .FIRE WEATHER... LOCALIZED AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SANDIAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. THE CONDITIONS WILL LESSEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN BUT RETURN AND EXPAND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN RESULT OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH WILL CROSS OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW AND MOST LIKELY PROVIDE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THE UPPER WIND FLOW IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND BUFFET THE HIGHER PEAKS...ESPECIALLY WITH WESTERLY EXPOSURE. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODERATE TO STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BE DRAPED OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS MEANS THAT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE MODEST AT BEST EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE GOOD RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUSION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HUMIDITIES FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT FORECAST FROM THE MODEL AS WELL AS INCREASED MECHANICAL MIXING...LOWERED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE LEVELS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE HUMIDITY READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS. THESE LOWER HUMIDITIES COUPLED WITH STRONG WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. THIS WILL BE COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE TO NEAR RECORD LEVEL TEMPERATURES. HAINES VALUES WILL BE A SMATTERING OF 4 TO 5/S SO NOT A CLASSIC SPRING CASE BY ANY MEANS. REGARDLESS...UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE FOUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE ACTUAL MOUNTAIN AREAS FOUND WITHIN THE SANDIA/MANZANOS AS WELL AS SANGRES. MODELS DO SHOW THE PEAK WINDS ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN THE FLOW TURNS FROM A WEST/SOUTHWEST TO A WEST/NORTHWEST AND ULTIMATELY NORTHWESTERLY. THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN WIND ENVELOPE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND AFFECT THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND AREAS TO THE EAST AS STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION IS SURE TO MATERIALIZE. A VERY STRONG TROUGH INDUCED PACIFIC MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALSO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE AND CONSIDERABLY DROP DEWPOINTS. WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I40. RECOVERIES AS A RESULT WILL BE PRETTY POOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE TO POOR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME GOOD RECOVERIES AS THE WIND SHIFTS DIRECTION THERE. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. PERHAPS MORE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. THE PACIFIC DRY SLOT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AND SAG SOUTHWARD BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS BUT NOT BEFORE DROPPING HUMIDITY READINGS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIRD. MUCH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE MORE EASTERLY WIND THERE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. ESPECIALLY AS MIXING HEIGHTS DROP PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY. MUCH MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STRONG. THE WIND GRADIENT RELAXES SOME FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE BUT WILL BE SLOWER DUE TO THE TIME OF YEAR. SUN ANGLE IS CERTAINLY LESSENING. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF CLEARER SKIES...DECREASING WIND AND THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE. VENTILATION WILL CERTAINLY TAKE A HIT DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SHOULD IMPROVE SOME ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS PROMISING FOR RX BURNS BASED ON THE FLOW PATTERN PROJECTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. FAIRLY MODEST WIND ALOFT UNDER A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. VENTILATION SHOULD BE DECENT ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY AS IT CONCERNS MAX RATES. ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WHICH IS PROJECTED FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS WOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF IT SIMILAR TO THIS LAST ONE. MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND ON THE INTENSITY AND TIMING SO CONFIDENCE CERTAINLY DEGRADES THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 50 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE WIND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOKING FOR GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT AT GUP...LVS AND TCC AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER WIND FLOW EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS IS WHEN ALL TERMINAL SITES SHOULD SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT AND MOST LIKELY HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF. SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN THE MOS GUIDANCE AT ABQ/SAF ON WEDNESDAY SO HOPE TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 41 69 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 28 67 25 53 / 0 5 5 5 CUBA............................ 37 70 30 57 / 0 0 5 0 GALLUP.......................... 34 68 24 58 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 33 68 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 37 71 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 40 72 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 39 77 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 31 63 28 49 / 0 5 5 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 70 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 44 68 38 53 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 68 34 54 / 0 5 5 5 RED RIVER....................... 34 60 27 44 / 0 5 5 5 ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 64 26 47 / 0 0 5 5 TAOS............................ 35 68 29 56 / 0 0 5 5 MORA............................ 44 69 37 52 / 0 0 5 5 ESPANOLA........................ 38 74 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 42 71 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 74 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 74 43 62 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 76 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 78 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 78 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 42 79 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 47 77 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 48 84 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 72 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 46 73 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 74 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 74 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 77 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 47 80 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 47 75 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 42 77 33 43 / 0 0 5 5 RATON........................... 40 80 35 46 / 0 0 5 5 SPRINGER........................ 43 80 35 52 / 0 0 5 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 46 78 38 57 / 0 0 0 5 CLAYTON......................... 50 86 37 48 / 0 0 5 5 ROY............................. 48 82 39 48 / 0 0 0 5 CONCHAS......................... 51 87 42 57 / 0 0 0 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 50 85 44 63 / 0 0 0 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 53 92 45 59 / 0 0 0 5 CLOVIS.......................... 51 89 47 63 / 0 0 0 5 PORTALES........................ 50 89 47 66 / 0 0 0 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 51 91 47 68 / 0 0 0 5 ROSWELL......................... 51 94 50 76 / 0 0 0 5 PICACHO......................... 49 86 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 50 79 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108. WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>515-527. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-528-529. && $$ 40/50  FXUS65 KABQ 121022 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 322 AM MST MON NOV 12 2012 .DISCUSSION... CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ARE PROVIDING TWO KEY INGREDIENTS FOR COLD TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER AS OF 3 AM WINDS STILL HAVE NOT DECOUPLED ENOUGH IN MANY AREAS. SOME RECORDS ARE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SITES HOWEVER UNLESS THE THIRD CRITICAL ELEMENT OF LIGHT WINDS TAKES SHAPE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN ABOVE RECORD TERRITORY. THE E PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY AS MUCH AS 10F HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FOR THIS HOUR SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. DESPITE THESE FACTORS IT IS STILL VERY COLD FOR MID NOVEMBER. THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPS...PERIODIC CLOUD COVER...AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITHIN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. LOW LEVEL INVERSION EFFECTS WILL MAKE FOR SOME INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AS VALLEY LOCALES MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN MID SLOPE AREAS FOR MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TUESDAY. AN AREA OF SNOW COVER VISIBLE ON THE 1741Z MODIS RGB SNOW PRODUCT SUNDAY WILL CORRESPOND TO THE COLDEST TEMPS THRU THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TIL SNOW MELTS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY IS LOW. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ADVANCING NE OUT OF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TOWARD THE SW CONUS. GOES HIGH DENSITY WIND DATA SHOWS A 130-150 KT SUBTROPICAL JET WITHIN THIS CLOUD COVER. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE WAVE TRAIN IS BECOMING VERY ACTIVE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC AND QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WELL. OPERATIONAL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERAL OF THESE FEATURES SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CHALLENGES AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE JUST LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS N AND CENTRAL NM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING SNEAKS IN. AFTN HIGH TEMPERATURES THOUGH WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND TODAY AND ACCELERATING SOME TUE AS NM WILL BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE/ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS TODAY THOUGH STILL A GOOD 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...EVEN A BIT MORE ACROSS REMAINING LOWER TERRAIN SNOW COVERED AREAS IN THE WEST...BUT CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS TUE EXCEPT IN THE LATTER MENTIONED AREA. VENTILATION POOR FOR THE MOST PART TODAY DUE TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS SFC AND ALOFT AND MORN INVERSIONS BEING SLOWER TO BREAK. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY FROM E TO W TUE AND WED WITH SOME SFC LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...VENTILATION IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY INVERSIONS AND THUS WILL REMAIN POOR TO LOCALLY FAIR MOST AREAS. LOCALES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THAT RECEIVED DECENT WEEKEND SNOW WILL SEE LOCALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD RH RECOVERIES AGAIN TONIGHT IF AT LEAST SOME PATCHY SNOW MANAGES TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE SE TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...WITH MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM 7 TO 15 PERCENT BOTH OF THE NEXT 2 AFTNS. WED TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARM TO NEAR AND A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY DROP BACK A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN E AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM BY FRI DUE TO WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT. VENTILATION FINALLY IMPROVES TO FAIR OR BETTER ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST FRI...BUT NOT SO GREAT IN EAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. RIGHT NOW...MOST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY FRI OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. 43 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT DRAINAGE OR CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN THE RULE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 33 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 42 18 48 21 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 39 7 47 14 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 48 13 51 14 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 38 8 46 12 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 35 -1 41 5 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 39 15 49 16 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 39 16 45 21 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 58 16 63 19 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 39 17 43 21 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 27 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 45 22 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 15 50 20 / 0 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 38 18 41 17 / 0 0 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 19 44 17 / 0 0 0 0 TAOS............................ 44 12 50 14 / 0 0 0 0 MORA............................ 47 18 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 44 14 53 17 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 47 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 20 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 29 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 27 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 24 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 23 56 25 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 45 19 56 22 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 47 23 55 25 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 54 22 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 24 48 29 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 45 22 51 29 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 12 55 16 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 24 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 53 22 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 49 27 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 43 24 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 RATON........................... 46 15 57 18 / 0 0 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 47 16 58 20 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 46 20 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 47 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 44 21 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 52 25 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 52 24 65 26 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 54 27 63 27 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 52 27 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 53 26 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 51 25 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 56 27 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 55 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 52 28 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS65 KABQ 261020 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 320 AM MST TUE FEB 26 2013 .DISCUSSION... TRICKY FORECAST DETAILS WILL INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT QUICKLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A PRONOUNCED JET WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND DRAG ITS WAY THROUGH NM. THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASED SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO ORIENT ITSELF FROM NW-SE OVER THE STATE. WILL HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS DOWN TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST H7 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SKIM THIS HIGHER COUNTRY. MANY ADJACENT AREAS WILL LIKELY COME VERY CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...MAYBE EVEN HITTING FOR AN OB OR TWO...BUT FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRICKY IN THE EAST CENTRAL AREAS. MODIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SHOWED A PATCHWORK OF SNOW PACK WITH SEVERAL HOLES OF BARE GROUND SHOWING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE PECOS VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE AND COMPLICATE MESOSCALE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS OVER RELATIVELY SHORT SPATIAL DISTANCES. WHILE WINDS WOULD BE DOWNSLOPING IN MUCH OF THIS AREA...SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE AT WORK AND MUCH OF THE WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE ORIGINATING OR FLOWING OVER A DENSER SNOW PACK. HAVE TRIED TO HEDGE BELOW GUIDANCE AGAIN WHERE SNOW PACK WAS REVEALED ON SATELLITE...BUT AGAIN THIS IS A TOUGH ONE TO PINPOINT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NM TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY ONLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THUS...NO ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL BE ISSUED. SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN THE SANGRES/RATON RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY...JUST TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SNEAKY LEFTOVER FORCING/OROGRAPHICS IN THE PESKY NORTHWEST FLOW. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY...SO WINDS WILL SEE A WELCOME DECLINE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY...10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE FEBRUARY NORMALS. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES OUR WAY...AND ACTUALLY MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING MORE DISTINCT ENERGY GOING FARTHER SOUTH...AN ARTIFACT OF THE SOUTHERN OR SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF THE JET HANGING NEARBY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNABLE TO START ANY KIND OF REBOUND. DRY NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP ON THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT BY SATURDAY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN...FINALLY PROVIDING A PERSUASIVE UPWARD NUDGE TO TEMPERATURES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...BUT THE FLOW WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO TURN MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE INTO MONDAY AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...AND NOTHING TOO ROBUST IS IN THE WORKS YET. 52 && .FIRE WEATHER... UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCE TO DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY...SWEEPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE STATE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE RGV...AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS/SOUTH CENTRAL MTS...WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 OR 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RH HAS TRENDED UP A BIT SINCE 24 HOURS AGO THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE IN THE MIDDLE/LOWER RGV. VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND FAR NORTHEAST. THEREFORE VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR EAST AND CENTRAL AND GOOD EAST. ANOTHER BUT WEAKER TROUGH TO PASS OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY. WINDS MAY TURN OUT TO BE STRONGER FRIDAY AS A BRISK NORTH FLOW ALOFT MORPHS INTO THE RIDGE ALOFT BY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN VENTILATION RATES IS NOTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. VENT RATES WORSEN SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WARM TO NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY AND EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CANT RULE OUT PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BETWEEN 07Z AND 14Z ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS AROUND CLOVIS. STRONG WINDS RETURN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF 22 TO 32 KTS AND GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KTS FROM ROUGHLY FARMINGTON TO SANTA ROSA. SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARDS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 37 13 38 12 / 5 5 0 0 DULCE........................... 33 4 35 -3 / 20 10 5 0 CUBA............................ 36 7 37 11 / 10 5 5 0 GALLUP.......................... 40 5 40 7 / 5 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 35 10 36 10 / 5 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 42 6 41 14 / 5 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 46 9 39 9 / 5 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 54 20 52 21 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 31 2 32 1 / 30 20 10 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 18 36 19 / 10 5 5 5 PECOS........................... 40 13 41 16 / 10 5 10 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 5 32 4 / 30 20 10 0 RED RIVER....................... 28 -1 28 -2 / 40 40 20 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 -3 30 -4 / 30 30 20 5 TAOS............................ 34 7 34 8 / 30 20 10 0 MORA............................ 37 12 37 11 / 10 20 10 5 ESPANOLA........................ 42 18 38 13 / 5 5 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 38 15 36 17 / 10 5 5 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 40 16 39 17 / 5 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 22 40 21 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 24 42 24 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 19 44 18 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 20 44 21 / 5 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 51 19 47 19 / 5 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 45 22 44 24 / 5 5 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 49 21 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 12 36 13 / 5 5 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 41 19 39 16 / 5 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 16 41 13 / 5 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 10 38 17 / 5 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 17 43 21 / 5 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 52 23 48 25 / 5 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 45 22 40 22 / 5 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 37 11 35 11 / 40 40 20 5 RATON........................... 39 13 37 12 / 30 30 20 5 SPRINGER........................ 39 17 39 13 / 20 20 5 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 39 11 37 12 / 5 10 5 5 CLAYTON......................... 42 18 44 19 / 10 20 10 5 ROY............................. 41 17 42 17 / 10 20 5 5 CONCHAS......................... 46 22 47 21 / 5 10 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 48 21 47 18 / 5 5 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 46 20 46 17 / 5 10 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 43 18 44 20 / 5 5 0 0 PORTALES........................ 43 17 43 18 / 5 5 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 49 20 48 21 / 5 5 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 67 29 52 31 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 50 22 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 57 19 46 21 / 5 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521>524-526-529-533-539. && $$ 52