FXUS61 KRNK 121459 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1059 AM EDT FRI APR 12 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES BY THE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1030 AM EDT FRIDAY... SFC FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS. AIRMASS IS STILL PRETTY JUICY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA. MORNING SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATED DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE SHOWERS LOW TOPPED. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC THREAT FOR STORMS FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY LYH-DAN AND POINTS EAST WHERE CAPES AND CLOUD DEPTH MAY ALLOW FOR IT. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH WINDS SHOULD ABRUBTLY SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS. AT THAT TIME WILL SEE SHOWER THREAT END. 8H TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE +8 WEST TO +13 EAST RANGE WILL FALL TO ZERO TO +5C BY MIDNIGHT. TODAY THOUGH...THE TEMPS SHOULD STAY MILD AS WE ARE SITUATED STILL IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN UNCHANGED OR FALL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FRO READINGS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING...APPROACHING 80 DEGREES DANVILLE. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHILE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. NOT IMPRESSED WITH UPSLOPE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE AREA WEST OF LWB MAYBE GETTING SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 30S WEST TO 40S EAST. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST TO THE LOWER 70S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY... DUE TO HEAVY LOAD ON THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PERIOD. DIMINISHING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD. COOLEST MORNING APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING WITH FROST POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY... SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT WARMTH AS 85H TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10 DEG C...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN MAY PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPER THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE MAGNITUDE. FOR MONDAY THERE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS FEATURE MAY CAST SOME CLOUD COVER OUT WAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF A EAST-WEST NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT WILL BE KEY IN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE EXPERIENCE MID WEEK...THE GFS BRINGING THIS FEATURE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO I-64...AND THE ECMWF HANGING IT UP NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON. ATTM WILL SKEW FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL BY AT LEAST 15 DEGREES...WHICH FAVORS MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION. IF THE ECMWF TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT THEN WE WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE NUMBERS UPWARD CLOSER TO WHAT JUST TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE WEEK PER INCREASING INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD WETTING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS REACHING OUR FCST AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 735 AM EDT FRIDAY... ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM OUR AREA BUT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE WRN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND CREATING MORE SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED AND THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME VFR AREAWIDE BY 18Z. S-SW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEST OF US TONIGHT WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT LWB/BLF BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF/WP NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/NF/WP  FXUS61 KRNK 121720 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 120 PM EDT FRI APR 12 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER SATURDAY BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ARRIVES BY THE SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 100 PM EDT FRIDAY... SFC FRONT HAS CROSSED THE BLUE RIDGE AND WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA AND THE PIEDMONT OF NC THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 1PM WINDS HAD SHIFTED AROUND TO THE WEST AT ROANOKE AND THE DEWPOINT WAS BEGINNING TO FALL. WINDS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC WERE STILL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. AIRMASS IS STILL PRETTY JUICY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. VSBL SAT PIX INDICATED SOME BUILDUPS VCNTY OF THE FRONT FROM DANVILLE TO WINSTON SALEM. SPC MESO ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SBCAPE...1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN THIS SAME REGION. THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH FAVORING AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 29 IN VIRGINIA...AND EAST OF ROUTE 220 IN NORTH CAROLINA. PER MORNING SOUNDINGS WHICH INDICATED DRY AIR ABOVE 500 MB...THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH AND KEEP THE SHOWERS LOW TOPPED. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC THREAT FOR STORMS FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY LYH-DAN AND POINTS EAST WHERE CAPES AND CLOUD DEPTH MAY ALLOW FOR IT. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BEHIND THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT WINDS SHOULD TREND MORE WESTERLY WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS. AT THAT TIME WILL SEE SHOWER THREAT COME TO AN END. 8H TEMPS STARTING OUT IN THE +8 WEST TO +13 EAST RANGE WILL FALL TO ZERO TO +5C BY MIDNIGHT. TODAY THOUGH...THE TEMPS SHOULD STAY MILD AS WE ARE SITUATED STILL IN SW FLOW ALOFT BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE DETERMINED ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN UNCHANGED OR FALL A FEW DEGREES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FRO READINGS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 70S GIVEN THE MILD START THIS MORNING...APPROACHING 80 DEGREES DANVILLE. TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHILE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. NOT IMPRESSED WITH UPSLOPE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE AREA WEST OF LWB MAYBE GETTING SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 30S WEST TO 40S EAST. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WEST TO THE LOWER 70S EAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY... DUE TO HEAVY LOAD ON THE NEAR TERM OF THE FORECAST...NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PERIOD. DIMINISHING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD. COOLEST MORNING APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE SUNDAY MORNING WITH FROST POSSIBLE...ESP IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY... SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT WARMTH AS 85H TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE 10 DEG C...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN MAY PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPER THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE MAGNITUDE. FOR MONDAY THERE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVED EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS FEATURE MAY CAST SOME CLOUD COVER OUT WAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF A EAST-WEST NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...SETTLING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY. PROXIMITY OF THIS FRONT WILL BE KEY IN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WE EXPERIENCE MID WEEK...THE GFS BRINGING THIS FEATURE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO I-64...AND THE ECMWF HANGING IT UP NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON. ATTM WILL SKEW FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO THE WARMER SIDE OF NORMAL BY AT LEAST 15 DEGREES...WHICH FAVORS MORE OF A GFS SOLUTION. IF THE ECMWF TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT THEN WE WILL NEED TO ADJUST THE NUMBERS UPWARD CLOSER TO WHAT JUST TOOK PLACE THIS PAST WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE WEEK PER INCREASING INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THE WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD WETTING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SFC FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS REACHING OUR FCST AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 735 AM EDT FRIDAY... ENHANCED CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM OUR AREA BUT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE WRN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY AND CREATING MORE SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED AND THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME VFR AREAWIDE BY 18Z. S-SW WINDS SHIFT TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 20-25 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEST OF US TONIGHT WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. A FEW CLOUDS MAY SKIRT LWB/BLF BUT OVERALL STILL EXPECTING VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NF/WP NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...PM/WP  FXUS61 KRNK 071610 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1210 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER THIS...FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1200 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS TRACKING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ON ITS EASTERN FLANK THAT WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OUTSIDE OF THICK CLOUD COVER...WILL FURTHER ENHANCE INSTABILITIES OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE MORE INSOLATION IS TAKING PLACE AND NEAR A LEE TROUGH. CAPE VALUES OVER THE WEST ARE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. IN THE EAST...THEY ARE 2500-3000 J/KG. PWATS ARE LITTLE LOWER THAN ADVERTISE YESTERDAY...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 10 KFT DEEP...VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME WILL BRING CREEKS AND STREAMS TO BANKFULL...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SEEING RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAY. WATAUGA RIVER AT SUGAR GROVE MAY NEED LESS RAIN TO SEE A QUICK RESPONSE TO RIVER LEVELS AND JUMP BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH OF RAIN BEFORE TROUBLES START SURFACING. SE WV AND EXTREME SW VA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE UP TO TWO INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN. THE KEY TO FLOOD PROBLEMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RATES. IF AN INCH OR TWO FALLS STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...VERY FEW AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE PROBLEMS. IF RATES ARE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER/EVERY 3-6 HOURS...THEN A MORE WIDE SPREAD THREAT IS POSSIBLE. AS OF 450 AM EDT SUNDAY... MODELS SIMILAR WITH PATTERN...TAKING UPPER LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND KEEPING THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET TO PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LIFT TONIGHT. BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION IS FROM 18Z/2PM TODAY THROUGH 06Z/2AM TONIGHT. HAVE CATEGORICAL PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. WPC...ALONG WITH THE SPC AND WPC SREF HOLD HIGHEST AMOUNTS ON THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS...NAM AND LOCAL WRF BROUGHT HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THIS AIR MASS WOULD THINK ONE TO THREE INCHES ALL THE WAY FROM THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY 12Z/8AM MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS TODAY SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST FEW DAYS. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY... A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...IN COMBINATION WITH A DOWNSLOPING WIND...SHOULD KEEP MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST ON MONDAY. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK ALOFT...A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY WITH EVENTUALLY A WEAK TROUGH SPLITTING BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. WITH ONLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES BEFORE THEN...STORMS WILL BE AIRMASS IN NATURE AND THEIR LOCATION WILL BE DETERMINED BY SURFACE WIND DIRECTION AND OUTFLOWS FROM OTHER STORMS. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON TUESDAY WILL FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. MORE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL VEER WINDS TO THE WEST...SUCH THAT STORMS ARE MOST PROBABLE THROUGH SE WEST VA AND NW NC. WITH SATURATED SOILS IN THE WEST...AND THE AIRMASS REMAINING SOUPY...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY... FORECAST THIS PERIOD SHOWS AN INCREASE IN TROUGHINESS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS A FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SLIPPING TO THE COAST OF NC/VA BY SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ESPECIALLY THU-FRI. WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS WITH SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 EAST TO THE MID 80S WEST...EXCEPT AROUND 80 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY IFFY ON WARMER HIGHS GIVEN INCREASED THREAT OF STORMS...SO WENT SOMEWHAT COOLER ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AROUND 80...TO MID TO UPPER 80S EAST. FOR FRIDAY...THE FRONT AROUND THE REGION WILL KEEP THE RAIN THREAT HIGHER AND CLOUDS AROUND SO A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OFF THURSDAY/S HIGH. BY SATURDAY WILL SHOULD SEE A NW FLOW AND SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER BUT GIVEN ITS JULY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS INCLINATION TO STALL NOT FAR FROM US GIVEN THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS THOUGH ARE SHOWING IT SHIFTING MORE EAST AND WEAKENING...BUT THE SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT THAT STRONG EITHER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS RANGE SAT WITH THE FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE COAST...WHILE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S MOUNTAINS...TO MID 80S EAST. LOWS DURING THE WEEK STAY MAINLY IN THE 60S...NEAR 70 EAST...DROPPING TO THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S BY SAT MORNING. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 725 AM EDT SUNDAY... ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT THIS RAIN TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KBLF AND KBCB. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY WITH THE TRAILING VORTICITY TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z/2PM...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE TIMING AT INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING KLYH AND KDAN HAVE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONGER SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...AS WELL AS MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA ON MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP VERY MOIST AIR IN THE REGION ALONG WITH A DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1000 AM EDT SUNDAY... ONE HALF TO AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN FELL IN WESTERN WATAUGA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THIS BROUGHT THE WATAUGA RIVER AT SUGAR GROVE BACK ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WATERS ARE RECEDING THIS MORNING AND WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SHORTLY. WATAUGA WARNING CENTER IS NOT REPORTING ANY ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS AT SUGAR GROVE. IF IT ONLY TOOK AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN TO BRING THE WATAUGA RIVER BACK UP...THAT MEANS NUMEROUS RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WHEN THE RAIN ARRIVES TODAY. WILL ALSO MONITOR RAINFALL AND ITS IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 1000 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE KFCX RADAR IS OPERATING AGAIN. WE ARE LIMITED TO VCP-12 ONLY. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS WILL RETURN TO THE SITE ON MONDAY AND RESUME MAINTENANCE. THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO LOCATED AT MOUNT JEFFERSON NORTH CAROLINA...WNG588...BROADCASTING AT 162.500 MHZ...IS CURRENTLY OFF THE AIR. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE MONDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ011-013-014- 016>020-022>024-032>035. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009- 010-012-015. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ003. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002- 018-019. WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ044. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ042-043- 045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS SHORT TERM...KM LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/JC HYDROLOGY...AMS/WP EQUIPMENT...PM/WP  FXUS61 KRNK 150910 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 510 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ABOUT A RETURN TO WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES AND EVEN A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 445 AM EDT TUESDAY... MULTIPLE WEATHER CONCERNS TO TRAVERSE THE REGION NEXT 12 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ULTIMATELY BRINGING A RETURN TO WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS. FIRST CONCERN IS MODERATE TO EVEN HEAVY RAINFALL IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS ONGOING NOW...AND SHOULD BE PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SINCE MIDNIGHT...RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN COMMON THROUGH THE NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES INTO PATRICK...HENRY...AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN VA. STOKES COUNTY CALLED AROUND 1 AM TO REPORT MINOR STREET FLOODING. AS THE RAINFALL SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...IT WILL MOVE INTO AREAS WHERE THE FFG VALUES ARE HIGHER...GENERALLY 2.5 TO 3.0 INCHES IN THREE HOURS...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED. IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AND HANDLE POTENTIAL FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH SPS/FLS AS NEEDED. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG WITH STRONG CAA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS TYPICAL FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. HOWEVER...WINDS DO NOT MEET HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA...SO HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM WATAUGA NORTHEASTWARD TO ROANOKE FROM 2 PM TO MIDNIGHT. THE TIME FRAME OF THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE A NARROW WINDOW...AND MOSTLY FOCUSED WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRONG CAA WILL QUICKLY NET WINTERLIKE TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY DROP TO CRITICAL SNOW LEVELS WITHIN A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TOWARD -12C IN EASTERN WV BY 06Z WED. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF -SHSN THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN WV...SOUTHWEST VA...NORTHWEST NC AS TEMPERATURES DROP. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH APPEAR POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTER 00Z WHEN SFC TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS. A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS CLEARLY IN ORDER FOR TODAY...WITH THE MILD 50 AND 60 DEGREE READINGS THIS MORNING QUICKLY GIVING WAY TO 30S AND 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FREEZE THREAT TONIGHT IS COVERED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY... WILL START THE EVENING OFF WITH NORTHWEST WINDS HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTS AT SPOTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF ROANOKE. TEMPERATURES BY SUNSET WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO SNOW ALONG OUR WESTERN RIDGELINES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING ENOUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR A FEW PATCHES OF FROST TO POSSIBLY DEVELOP. A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...MEANING THAT ANY VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY BE KILLED IF NOT PROTECTED. ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT BEGIN ISSUING FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL BEGINNING APRIL 30TH...WE SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT THE RECENT WARM WEATHER MAY HAVE CAUSED SENSITIVE VEGETATION TO BEGIN GROWING THERE AS WELL...WHICH WOULD ALSO BE AFFECTED BY THE COLD. AT ANY RATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD TO HUG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTERLY. CAN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE...THIS TIME WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEAR SKIES. AS SUCH...EXPECT WE WILL NEED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. LOOK FOR A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE FINAL DAYS OF THE WORKWEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...BELIEVE MODELS ARE TRYING TO ERODE THE COLD HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS TOO QUICKLY...AND THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TEMPERATURES. THAT STATED...BELIEVE THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK FRIDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES... DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FRONT PASSES...BUT WITH NO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OR ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY... PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 355 PM EDT MONDAY... WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE MIDWEST EVENTUALLY PUSHES EAST...AND WEDGING HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY DEPARTS THIS WEEKEND. WITH A RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...QUESTIONABLE IF THIS MIDWEST TROUGH PRODUCES ANY PRECIP ONCE IT ARRIVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. OP GFS IS FAR MORE WET THAN THE ECMWF. THUS...POPS WERE KEPT RATHER LOW. A ZONAL UPPER FLOW TAKES SHAPE BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH UNEVENTFUL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 150 AM EDT TUESDAY... MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 18Z...AT WHICH POINT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...IMPROVING CIGS TO VFR AFT 18Z PIEDMONT...BUT WITH CONTINUED MVFR CIGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND -SHRA OR EVEN POSSIBLY -SHSN EASTERN WV TAF SITES. BCB WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH EVENING. MVFR VSBYS MAY CONTINUE AT BLF FOR A WHILE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL OTHER SITES BY 20Z. WINDS WILL BE ONE OF THE GREATEST CONCERNS THIS TAF VALID CYCLE...MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A GENERAL INCREASE OF SSE-SSW WINDS OF 10-20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT WNW-NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40KTS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL ONLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS...THEN DIMINISHING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFT 02Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPD THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR TSRA ROA/LYH/DAN AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR -SHSN AT BLF/LWB THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN FROM THE NE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR WITH THIS SCENARIO CONTINUING THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE NW. THIS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY BUT APPEARS SLOW AND WEAK ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN VFR DURING THE DAY FOR NOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS OTRW VFR ELSW TO START THE WEEKEND. && && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ022>024- 032>035-043>047-058-059. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ014>017-022. NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ003>006- 019-020. WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAB NEAR TERM...RAB SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM...KM AVIATION...JH/RAB  FXUS61 KRNK 010936 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 436 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KANSAS CITY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH BY DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTH FROM THE LOW...SWEEPING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY...INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT...CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ALL OF WHICH ARE THE RESULT OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. OUR RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT RETURNS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS VIRGA...PRECIPITATION THAT DRIES UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE TEENS...INDICATIVE OF THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE THE AIRMASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA SATURATES ENOUGH TO PERMIT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. BY THAT TIME IS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING THAT REACHES THE GROUND TO BE RAIN. SOUNDING PROFILES THIS MORNING ARE CERTAINLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY FORM EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF GETTING ANYTHING TO THE SURFACE IS PRETTY SMALL. CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW THIS MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE CYCLONE WHICH HAS EVOLVED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY IS FAIRLY LARGE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WAS NEAR KANSAS CITY THIS MORNING WITH SNOW FALLING FROM NEBRASKA TO OHIO...AND RAIN FALLING FROM MISSOURI TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW FROM CHICAGO TO TOLEDO...AND MODERATE RAINS FOR THE MID MS VALLEY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN FOR OUR AREA WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF /0.50/ TO THREE QUARTERS /0.75/ OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS RAIN EPISODE. TEMPERATURES TODAY...PENDING CLOUD THICKNESS...SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 40S...AND REMAIN THERE FOR TONIGHT PER THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ONLY AREA WHICH MAY DIP BACK INTO THE 30S BEFORE DAYBREAK WOULD BE THE FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SIGNAL A DOWNWARD TREND OF THE TEMPERATURE PER COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 3-5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO +6 DEG C ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST SUNDAY... AS THE LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH IT WILL SWING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND KICKING OFF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND DO NOT CURRENTLY SEE A NEED FOR ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE FALLING ALL DAY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT TEMPS MAY RISE JUST A TAD BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT SO TEMPS WILL NOT START FALLING THERE UNTIL LATE MORNING. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO HOWL MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DOES INCREASE BUT THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP WHICH WILL PREVENT GUSTS FROM MAXIMIZING. THIS IS SIMILAR TO SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS AND WE MAY END UP NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...BUT CURRENTLY EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 50KTS AND NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA. THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT TO BRING WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS IT SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND BRINGS US QUIET WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH SLIPS BY TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND NICELY AND RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY... WEATHER FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH CONCERNING THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS SUPPORT OF DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO PUSH RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH THE HIGH THEN BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO WEDGE AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD...RADIATING MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE BIG QUESTION IS TO WHAT DEGREE THAT THE COASTAL LOW WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. THE GFS FORECAST MODEL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL SIMILAR BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE ECMWF MODEL WHICH DOES NOT DEVELOP THE COASTAL LOW AS DEEPLY AND THEREFORE KEEPS OUR AREA DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW...AM LEANING TOWARD THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION... WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY SNOW FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE RANGE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITHIN THE MODELS...HAVE NO CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW WE WOULD RECEIVE...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS TODAY ARE CALLING FOR ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD CONSTITUTE A WINTER STORM ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AREAWIDE. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1045 PM EST SATURDAY... HIGH THEN MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CIGS AROUND 5-15KFT...BUT WILL START TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN HEADING TOWARD BLF/LWB BY 00Z MON. RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS AND MVFR VSBYS IN THE MTNS. MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME STRONG LOW LVL WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO LOW LVL WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME AN ISSUE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT TOO EARLY FOR TAFS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL TRACK INTO OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS. MONDAY...AFTER RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING...CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD WITH VFR WX. THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MAY BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY SNOW TO THE REGION. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS/NF AVIATION...AMS/WP  FXUS61 KRNK 170923 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 523 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY... THE WEATHER WILL BE IN A CHANGEABLE MODE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...CROSSING OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME MUCH COLDER AIR...BY MARCH STANDARDS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM WESTERLY BREEZE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT BREAKING A TEMPERATURE RECORD OR TWO...SEE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS. THE FRONT THAT WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY IS MOISTURE STARVED IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE IS ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WE WILL SEE IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY SCANT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER OUR AREA WILL START OFF IN THE 30S THIS MORNING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABOUT ALL THIS WILL DO IS CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CU DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LITTLE DEPTH. MODEL CAPE THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 100 J/KG...SO ANY CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR SHOWER WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD SIDE...WEST SIDE...OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO POOL ALLOWING FOR A SLIVER OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SQUASH THAT CHANCE. YESTERDAY WE MIXED TO A DEPTH OF 5-7KFT AGL. WITH SIMILAR MIXING TODAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...SUSTAINED 10-20 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGE PEAKS MAY TEST 40 MPH. THE WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SKIES CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL PUT TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS INTO A DOWNWARD SPIRAL TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 30S AND DEWPOINTS SLIPPING INTO THE TEENS. MECHANICAL MIXING WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WINDS GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY... AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THIS DRY BUT CHILLY RIDGE WILL PRODUCE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF STATES. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL OVERRUN THE RIDGE...INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA HIGH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG THE TN/VA AND NC/VA BORDERS...AS WARM MOIST AIR ENTERS THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS COLD ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE USING MODEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES AS A GUIDE. TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH SHOULD FALL TO GUIDANCE FORECAST AS THEY REMAIN UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH BY SUNRISE FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES MAYBE COLD ENOUGH AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OVER THE NEW RIVER...ROANOKE...AND GREENBRIER VALLEYS THURSDAY MORNING TO HAVE LIGHT WET SNOW FALLING FOR A FEW HOURS. RECENT WARMING SPELL HAS GROUND TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY SNOW. IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATES...IT WILL BE CONFIDED TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS VEHICLES AND DECKS. BY MID MORNING THURSDAY...THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ALL RAIN. THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH AND WITH EASTERLY FLOW...AN IN-SITU WEDGE WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 40S WITH THE WARM SPOT BEING LYNCHBURG AND POINTS NORTHEAST AS THEY MAY NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERNS WITH MODEL RAINFALL TOTALS BEING TO HIGH THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT TOTALS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FALLING INTO THE EVENING. RAIN INTENSITY MAY INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE TURNS TO THE NORTH AND TRACKS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. COASTAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO LIMIT MOISTURE FEED TO THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AGAINST GUIDANCE. THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTHSIDE VA COULD SEE UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY... LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...ALL WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL TAP INTO SOME OF THE EXITING MOISTURE OF THE LOW...AND HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION. COVERAGE IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES EAST OF THE REGION...AND MERGES WITH THE COASTAL LOW. SATURDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE REGION WILL CONTINUE IN PREDOMINATELY NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH...OR NEAR THE AREA. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TO OFFER SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WITH ONE SUCH CLIPPER SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST. THE GFS OFFERS A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS ANOTHER THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HAVE SELECTED NOT TO INCLUDED PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST WITHOUT AGREEMENT FROM OTHER MODELS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL TREND MILDER FROM BELOWS NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 4 AM EDT TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUD BASES TO THE MOUNTAINS...BEFORE CLEARING TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND GUSTY. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MAGNITUDES OF 10-15KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS 20-25 KTS. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DEPTH IS FORECAST TO BE SHALLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THIS RAIN COULD BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS. ATTM CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH REGARDING SPECIFICS OF TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALL MODELS MODELS HOLD OFF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS UNTIL AFTER 09Z/5AM THURSDAY. FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS EVEN LOWER...GIVEN THE VAST VARIATIONS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. A GENERAL CONSENSUS SOLUTION PLACES THE WARM FRONT PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE REGION...WHILE THE STORM SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OR MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF IFR... BEFORE DRY AIR ARRIVES WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR SATURDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 5AM EDT TUESDAY... YET ANOTHER GOOD DRYING DAY IS FORECAST WITH WARM WESTERLY BREEZES AND LOW HUMIDITY. TODAY IS DAY 3 SINCE WETTING RAIN. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND WILL COUPLE WITH HUMIDITY MINIMUMS OF 25-35 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...A WESTERLY WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL AID IN THE DRYING. FUEL MODELS 1-3...THE GRASSES...SHOULD EASILY BURN TODAY. LEAF LITTER ON SOUTHERN FACING SLOPES SHOULD ALSO BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE...REGIONAL FIRE RAWS NOW INDICATING THE 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE HAS FALLEN INTO THE THE 7-10 PERCENT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...COLDER AIR RETURNING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OF ALL THE DAYS THIS WEEK...WEDNESDAY WOULD APPEAR THE BEST DAY TO BURN WITH RESPECT TO PRESCRIBED FIRE. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM/DRY/BREEZY TO COMFORTABLY MEET OBJECTIVES...BUT WEDNESDAY MAY VERY WELL MEET EVERYONES PRESCRIPTION WITH WINDS UNDER 10 MPH AND HUMIDITIES 20-30 PERCENT. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE BURN WINDOW WILL CLOSE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY PROVIDING WETTING PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 17TH... ROANOKE.....89/1945. LYNCHBURG...87/1945. DANVILLE....80/1995. BLUEFIELD...73/1989. LEWISBURG...73/2012. BLACKSBURG..72/2012. ROANOKE AND LYNCHBURG LOOK UNTOUCHABLE WITH RESPECT TO RECORD HIGHS TODAY...BUT THE REMAINING RECORDS COULD BE TESTED...WITH BLACKSBURG AND DANVILLE HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...DS/RCS AVIATION...PM FIRE WEATHER...PM CLIMATE...PM  FXUS61 KRNK 040844 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 344 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 248 AM EST WEDNESDAY... GETTING LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR FROM THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA INTO NC SOUTHEAST TO THE TRIAD OF NC. ELEMENTS MOVING NW WITH SE FLOW AT 8H. A BLEND OF THE HIGH-RES/SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVORS A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A BCB-ROA-LYH LINE AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH IN THE MTN EMPIRE OF FAR SW VA AND WEST OF BLF-LWB AND NORTH OF LEXINGTON...SOME SUNSHINE WILL WORK IN. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH. STILL HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA NORTHWARD THROUGH SE WV...ALLEGHANYS AND PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...TO UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF ROANOKE TO MOUNT AIRY/WILKESBORO NC. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FAR EASTERN CWA TO LITTLE TO NONE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR. TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH. WE MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE WV/VA BORDER BEFORE THE FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT BACK EAST THROUGH THU MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER POPS 40-50 EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS...TO CHANCE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF I-81. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY AS CLOUD DEPTH DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY KICK OUT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO BRING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES AN EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES DIG A TROF THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT BUT MOST OF THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING. AND WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT GRADUALLY CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING. WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A SOLID FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK GREAT ENOUGH TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH QUESTIONS IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE BUILDS BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS QUITE DRY/COOL WITH THE HIGH ABOUT OVERHEAD AND LITTLE RETURN FLOW INTO THE WEDGE UNTIL MONDAY...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING MORE COASTAL TROFFINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING PERHAPS SOME -RA BACK INTO THE COOL POOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE ONSET OF THE DRY ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT INITIALLY BEFORE ANY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SO WILL KEEP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRIER WITH MORE CLOUDS/-RA RETURNING BY TUESDAY. COOLER 85H TEMPS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY- MONDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S UNDER BETTER RETURN FLOW TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1145 PM EST TUESDAY... GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 04/06Z TAF VALID PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...LOW PRESSURE STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A MARITIME INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND SUBSEQUENTLY A MOIST LAYER BELOW. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. WHILE LYH/ROA HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY AROUND 04/09Z...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT BLF. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE CLOUDS MEET THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY ENE-ESE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 3-6KTS TIL 14Z...THEN 4-8KTS AFT 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL FINALLY ERODE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A BREAK DOWN OF THE WEDGE FROM THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...NF/RAB  FXUS61 KRNK 041539 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1039 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 648 AM EST WEDNESDAY... MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMP AND POP GRIDS THIS MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NC TOP A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RAP SHOWS SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALBEIT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 800MB...TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. DON'T EXPECT IT TO BE A COMPLETELY WET DAY THOUGH..AND SOME SUN MAY PEAK TROUGH AT TIMES WITH DRIER AIR JUST OFF TO THE NORTH. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA NORTHWARD THROUGH SE WV...ALLEGHANYS AND PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...TO UPPER 50S- LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF ROANOKE TO MOUNT AIRY/WILKESBORO NC. -22 TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH. WE MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE WV/VA BORDER BEFORE THE FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT BACK EAST THROUGH THU MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER POPS 40-50 EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS...TO CHANCE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF I-81. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY AS CLOUD DEPTH DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. -WP && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY KICK OUT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO BRING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES AN EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES DIG A TROF THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT BUT MOST OF THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING. AND WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT GRADUALLY CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING. WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A SOLID FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK GREAT ENOUGH TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH QUESTIONS IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE BUILDS BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS QUITE DRY/COOL WITH THE HIGH ABOUT OVERHEAD AND LITTLE RETURN FLOW INTO THE WEDGE UNTIL MONDAY...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING MORE COASTAL TROFFINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING PERHAPS SOME -RA BACK INTO THE COOL POOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE ONSET OF THE DRY ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT INITIALLY BEFORE ANY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SO WILL KEEP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRIER WITH MORE CLOUDS/-RA RETURNING BY TUESDAY. COOLER 85H TEMPS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY- MONDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S UNDER BETTER RETURN FLOW TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 645 AM EST WEDNESDAY... GOING TO SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 1500-4500 FEET. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR DANVILLE EARLY BUT BEST THREAT OF THIS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MODELS FAVOR BKN TO SCT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT LWB/BLF AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP A CIG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR. DRIER ABOVE THE LOWEST LVLS MAY CREATE A FOG ISSUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL FINALLY ERODE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A BREAK DOWN OF THE WEDGE FROM THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP/22 SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...WP  FXUS61 KRNK 042008 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 308 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES AREN'T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIIZZLE TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COTNINEU TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS SUPISIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE'VE SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ISN'T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY... SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE LEAD TO A WIDE ARRAY OF AVIATION CONDITIONS...BUT CONTINUED MOIST FLOW ATOP A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE TO MANY LOCATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH 06-08Z...AFTER WHICH SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN THEIR SLOW EROSION. OUTLOOK... LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERS STORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...22  FXUS61 KRNK 240950 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 450 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ABNORMALLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN STALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM EST WEDNESDAY... LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SINCE MIDNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WHERE THIS PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STALL AND WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WRF AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HOLD THE FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAD DIFFERING LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST PREFRONTAL RAINFALL. USED A BLEND OF WPC AND LOCAL WRF RAINFALL FORECAST TO PLACE BEST PROBABILITY AND ORIENTATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY BUT WITH ONLY A SMALL RISE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE WERE A REASONABLE BASIS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY... THE UPPER PATTERN WITH AN EASTERN RIDGE/WESTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT AN EVOLUTION TO A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BRING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A WET NOTE FRIDAY AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LESSENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MAX PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THIS EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS/EMBEDDED THUNDER. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEING FOUND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MOST OF THE REGION INTO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE WEST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR STARTS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY... UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MEAN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE NATION...KEEPING MID ATLANTIC AND MID APPALACHIAN REGION IN MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A MORE GENERAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ENCOMPASSING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SEEMS IN THE OFFING FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COOL WEDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDWESTERN UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SPOTTY UPSLOPING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UPSLOPING FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO MORE OF A WIDESPREAD SHOWERY NATURE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. PASSAGE OF SHEARING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE FALL SEASON...PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND MAINTENANCE OF SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT INTRUSION OF ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...AND PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER NEW YEARS DAY. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1220 AM EST THURSDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 10-12 UTC...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM INTO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THUNDER WILL MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST...BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BLF WHERE CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST. AHEAD OF THE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS...IN BRIEFLY LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS POTENTIALLY AS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY LWB IS LIKELY TO STAY IFR REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY AND MAY RETREAT SOME BY EVENING...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS MAY BE BETTER ATMOSPHERE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMPARED TO NOW. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS ABOVE A WEAK INVERSION ARE INCREASING INTO THE 50-60KT RANGE...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS THAT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SFC WINDS...THIS RESULTS IN THE NEED FOR WIND SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WHEN THIS JET RELAXES A LITTLE BUT ALSO MAY MIX DOWN TO SURFACE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BLF AND LYH ARE THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS SINCE SFC WINDS ARE UP JUST ENOUGH. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW IN EXTENT TO WHICH IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INCREASE AGAIN BY EVENING....BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF NON-IFR WINDOWS OF TIME AT MOST TAF SITES...AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... CHRISTMAS DAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE IFR OR WORSE VALUES AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED AND FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS MUCH LESS WITH NO KEY FEATURES TO HELP LIFT THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY... AS ADVERTISED...VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION WELL INTO FRIDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY MODEST UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS VERY HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS NEARLY 10KFT AND RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RATES AND CONSIDERING THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS WEEK...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FOR TODAY. AS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AND THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH. AT THIS TIME THE DAN RIVER AT DANVILLE AND PACES WERE RISING BUT WERE EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY... WITH THE CONTINUING VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... MANY DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AS HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET. FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THURSDAY 12/24/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 66 1964 -8 1983 14 1989 53 1964 KDAN 70 1990 9 1989 23 1989 53 1990 KLYH 70 1933 1 1983 26 1906 47 1979 KROA 72 1933 0 1989 26 1960 47 1979 KRNK 62 1996 -4 1989 19 1960 46 1956 FRIDAY 12/25/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 64 1982 -13 1983 2 1983 55 1982 KDAN 76 1955 3 1983 28 1989 48 1988 KLYH 72 1982 -4 1983 13 1983 57 1964 KROA 68 1982 -4 1983 11 1983 54 1964 KRNK 68 1964 -8 1983 13 1983 41 1972 SATURDAY 12/26/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 62 1987 -3 1983 16 1977 55 1982 KDAN 75 1982 2 1983 18 1983 57 1964 KLYH 72 1922 1 1983 22 1914 58 1964 KROA 70 1964 3 1980 23 1985 56 1982 KRNK 64 1982 -8 1985 9 1983 50 1982 SUNDAY 12/27/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 69 2008 9 1977 20 2010 52 1982 KDAN 77 1982 6 1983 27 1985 54 1964 KLYH 71 1971 0 1914 21 1925 50 1940 KROA 69 1984 -3 1914 25 1935 52 1940 KRNK 67 2008 -6 1985 20 1985 52 1964 MONDAY 12/28/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 67 1984 4 1977 20 1995 53 1984 KDAN 72 1971 13 1966 28 1950 54 2008 KLYH 76 1984 6 1977 26 1950 51 1959 KROA 75 1984 4 1925 25 1925 51 1984 KRNK 66 1984 6 1977 28 1995 42 1959 && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS LIMITED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE OBSERVATION FROM THE BLUEFIELD AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM. DATA FROM THIS SITE MAY BE UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009-015-016-032- 043-044-058-059. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS/WERT AVIATION...RCS/SK HYDROLOGY...AMS CLIMATE...AMS EQUIPMENT...RCS  FXUS61 KRNK 171955 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 255 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A SHORTWAVE LOCATED IN KENTUCKY AROUND 18Z WILL ROTATE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME RIDGING AND RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIRESW-ARW-E...RNK- WRFARW...GFS AND NAM SHOWED ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF...RAP AND HRRR ARE LESS IMPRESSED FOR ACTIVITY. FOR TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE GONE THURSDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHEN THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY A CLASSIC WEDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MID ATLANTIC PORTION OF THE WEDGE WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WHILE BLOCKING THE GULF. THE FRONT COMING ACROSS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HITTING THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE M/U 40S WEST TO L50S EAST. DESPITE THE PASSING OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS THE AREA TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 115 PM EST WEDNESDAY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN US. ACROSS THE SOUTH...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAIN FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...DRY ELSEWHERE. WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND TRACK ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT. THE WEDGE MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING RETURNING TO RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IT BECOMES NEGATIVE-TILTED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TRACKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO STAY LIQUID. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1243 PM EST WEDNESDAY... SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN KBLF...KLWB AND KBCB THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KDAN...KLYH AND KROA INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE MVFR CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A SMALL CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KLWB OR KBLF. WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. IT COULD SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1252 PM EST TUESDAY... STAGES ARE FALLING ON THE UPPER DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE UPSTREAM BUT CONTINUING TO RISE DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS. STAGES ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER IMPACTING LOWLANDS AND SEVERAL ROADS NEAR THE RIVER. FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN VIRGINIA...ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES, DAN RIVER AT PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY AND DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY. CHECK LATEST FLS FOR FLOOD DETAILS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS/LC AVIATION...AMS/KK HYDROLOGY...KK/PC  FXUS61 KRNK 170808 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 308 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the Southeast U.S. tonight and Sunday. Lows pressure over the Southern Plains will move northeast toward the Ohio Valley and weaken tonight and Sunday. Another low over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will move east through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EST Sunday... High pressure was along the southeast Atlantic Coast. This feature will remain relatively stationary the next few days, blocking any significant weather systems from impacting the area. There is an impressive looking short wave coming out of the Arklatex with precip advancing northeast through the Mid/Lower MS valley, but this feature will encounter this high pressure road block. As such, anticipating bulk of the rain associated with the trough to get steered around the periphery of the Atlantic Ridge, any encroachment of precip drying up as it enters the dry air and subsidence associated with the anticyclone. Sensible weather today will reflect increasing cloudiness from the approaching short wave disturbance. Some light rain is possible west of the Blue Ridge during the late afternoon and evening, but not looking for anything measurable to make it east of the Blue Ridge, although can't rule out some sprinkles. In spite of increasing cloud cover, temperatures will climb above freezing, although any significant rise of temperature will be dampened per increasing cloud thickness. Most areas should reach the 40s today, and around 50 Southside into the Piedmont of NC where clouds will be thinner...values close to the seasonal norm. Considerable cloudiness early tonight will give way to partial clearing as the system fractures. Westerly winds will permit continuation of upslope low level cloudiness along the western slopes, cloud depth shallow. With no dendritic growth forecast in the cloud, p-type would be limited to mainly drizzle. Temperatures tonight will be dependent on cloud cover, any clearing allowing readings to slip close to freezing, but if clouds persist then lows will be in the mid-upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EST Sunday... The medium range models are in good agreement, especially early in the period that our region falls under a zonal flow with weak ribbons of elongated vorticity skirting to our north, especially Monday night and early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper trof moving through the northeast U.S. Tuesday night/early Wednesday helps push a cold front through our area during this timeframe. The third feature of interest during the short term forecast is a cut off low currently near Baja California, which ejects northeast and weakens as it moves over our area Wednesday. The 00Z ECMWF is farther north with the track of a sfc low associated with this feature, and as a result, brings precip farther north into our southern zones (NC/southern VA) Tuesday night into Wednesday. For Monday, lingering moisture and upslope flow may generate some light precip in the mountains, and the GFS still hints at some light freezing drizzle/freezing rain in the Greenbrier Valley to Bath county early Monday morning. Most of the SREF members keep precip liquid or do not develop precip at all. Even if the worst case scenario unfolded with spotty freezing drizzle, amounts would be extremely light and no adverse impacts are expected. Continued to lean toward the warmer side of guidance for highs, especially in the east where more sun is expected under downsloping winds. An increasing low level jet Monday night, should keep ridges mixed resulting in warmer temps for lows Tuesday morning. Downsloping winds persist into Tuesday, which have the potential to bring very warm conditions to our region. This may be mitigated, however, by increasing high/mid level clouds. Therefore, made little adjustments to highs Tuesday which still fall on the warmer side of most guidance. Precipitation associated with the ejecting upper level storm system could arrive as early as Tuesday night, but GFS ensemble means indicate best chances for rain (south of Highway 460) would be Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Coldest air remains to the north, with just a glancing shot, so temps Wednesday will still be near to slight above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 PM EST Saturday... The second upper low also weakens as it moves northeast but takes a more southern track through the Tennessee Valley. This short wave crosses the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A third upper low reaches the Southwest United States late in the week with a larger spread in models solutions concerning location and intensity. The main track of the vorticity maximums will depend on the strength of the digging trof in the central United States and the upper ridging over the Southeast. Models were showing a spread of solutions for Thursday through Sunday. In-situ type wedge of high pressure may develop over the area on Thursday. Models keep the bulk of any precipitation south of Virgina. Will keep better probability of precipitation mainly on Friday night and Saturday. Decent plunge of much colder air advertised by the GFS and ECMWF on Friday and Saturday for the central and eastern United States. Air mass will be cold enough to support snow in the mountains on Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1105 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions are expected during the extent of the valid TAF forecasts, with mainly mid clouds increasing Sunday. May start to see clouds lowering toward low end VFR in the mountains Sunday evening with a few showers possible. Extended Discussion... A weak frontal system approaching from the west may induce a brief period of MVFR with light rain showers across the mountains through Sunday night. This may impact KBLF and KLWB. VFR cloud bases anticipated elsewhere. Little or no impact is expected to aviation for the central Mid-Atlantic through mid week as weather features remain well north and south of the geographic region. The greatest potential will be Wednesday night, but even here, guidance is still not consistent with its various solutions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...AMS/PH AVIATION...DS/WP  FXUS61 KRNK 290704 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 304 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic region will provide for mainly dry conditions through early Saturday. A cold front will move east across the region Saturday night into Sunday accompanied by rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Fair weather anticipated today and tonight, although with a bit more cloud cover compared to yesterday. An area of high pressure along the Atlantic Coast will remain our primary weather provider in the near term. The airmass is modifying with respect to uptick in surface dewpoints and temperatures. Return flow on the back side of the High has allowed for dewpoints to climb into the 30s. This in combination with 85H temperatures of +8 to +10 degree C should make for a relatively nice end to the work week with afternoon temperatures ranging from the 60s mountains to the lower to mid 70s piedmont... about 10 degrees above normal. There will be variable amounts of cloud cover today, courtesy of debris cloud remnants from shower/storm activity which developed over the mid part of the country yesterday, and carried downstream by the westerly winds aloft. This cloud element is of the mid (altocu) and upper (cirrus) variety and should not produce any measurable precip east of the Appalachian Divide. Some of the models do indicated potential for a sprinkle or two across our northwestern CWA, but model soundings suggest it will most likely be virga...probability of measurable of less than 20 percent. Never the less, during which time these cloud elements pass overhead, sky conditions may resemble bkn-ovc attms due to the overall thickness of the cirrus and altocu. For tonight, variable amounts of mid/upper level cloud is still be expected. This should interfere with the radiational cooling process and work in tandem with increasing dewpoints to result in milder overnight temperatures. Lows tonight may not dip much below 50 pending cloud thickness. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EST Thursday... Broad southwest flow aloft anticipated through Saturday night. Cold front will extend from Maine to Florida by Sunday morning with ripples of low pressure along the boundary. Saturday ahead of the front 850MB temperatures will be in the +8 to +10 range so with any sufficient sun on Saturday maximum temperatures will be well into the 60s and 70s. But high clouds from the approaching front may limit heating. Any showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southern Blue Ridge and far western mountains in the afternoon. A majority of the probability of precipitation will be after midnight Saturday night. Lead short wave coming out of the Pacific northwest phases with the northern stream upper trough over the northeast on Sunday morning. The trough axis moves offshore Sunday night. Decent cold air advection and pressure rises behind the cold front on Sunday night but low level jet was forecast to only be in the 25 to 30 knot range. Winds will increase from the northwest then north Sunday night but will not be excessive. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1240 PM EST Thursday... Short wave that originated in the Pacific will be over the southern Plains on Monday and will track east through the southern jet stream, reaching the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region on Tuesday. Continue to see differing solutions with the location and intensity of this feature. ECMWF still slower and does not close off an upper low until the energy is off the East Coast. WPC was leaning toward the ECMWF and its ensembles for Tuesday and Wednesday in the east. Surface high pressure will be over the Ohio Valley Monday morning and over New England Tuesday morning and extending south into the southern Appalachians. Surface low pressure that forms in the Gulf will cross Florida late Monday night/early Tuesday and will be somewhere off the Carolina coast Wednesday morning. Location of the low will play a large part in how far west precipitation will extend into Virginia and North Carolina on Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable for winds to decouple and for good radiation Monday night. After that the air mass gradually warms. Partial thickness forecast off the ECMWF shows some potential Tuesday night for winter type precipitation. Will hold in cloud cover through Wednesday so will stay at or just below guidance for maximum temperatures, then more sun and near normal Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... Expecting VFR through sunset Saturday evening. There will be periods of mid/upper level cloud elements due to debris cloudiness drifting downstream from remnant shower/storm activity over the mid section of the country. Winds will generally be under 10 kts today, although models do show an early morning jet-like surge of wind over the mountains of about 25-30kts in a layer between 2000-5000 feet AGL. This jet mixes out between 14Z/10AM and 19Z/3PM and may result in an occasional surface gust of 15-20kts during that time frame. Forecast Confidence through 24 hour valid taf period is High. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR expected until the arrival of a cold front Saturday night. A period of MVFR CIGs is anticipated early Sunday along with sub-VFR visibilities associated with the frontal and post- frontal showers. A transition back to VFR is expected late Sunday into Monday with a primary flight category of VFR expected Monday. Model consensus is for a coastal storm to impact the Mid- Atlantic region Tuesday with high uncertainty as to the westward extent of the Sub-VFR sensible weather. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PM