FXUS61 KRLX 121942 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 242 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT EXITS. REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS EVIDENT BY THE LOWERING DEWPOINTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THIS FRONT AS CRW STILL SITS AT THE 70F MARK AS OF 19Z. TEMPERATURES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH READINGS DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO SIGNIFICANT POPS LEFT FOR THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...STILL KEEPING THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THIS TO LOW END POPS. EXPECT THE WIND TO DECREASE A BIT...ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS...THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE STILL AT WORK...WILL BE FAR FROM A CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ON THE STRONG SIDE...SO MIXING TOMORROW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL GUSTY CONDITIONS...BUT NOT WHAT THEY ARE WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH. MOUNTAINS WILL STILL SEE 25-35KTS. CONSIDERABLY COOLER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT SOME SUN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOWLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OSCILLATE IN AND OUT OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH SLATED TO DROP CLOUDS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO HEADING INTO THE SHORT TERM. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPSLOPE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS FORMING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS VERY LIMITED AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR OVER TURNING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WINDS CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TENDS TO ALWAYS INCLUDE RADIATION. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN WILL ERODE ON SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED TO RUN COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS REMAINING COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS THIN AND EVAPORATE IN THE NE...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. WENT COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT GFS MOS EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CATCHING UP TO OUR THINKING FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO REPEAT ITSELF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. YET...NOTHING REPEATS EXACTLY THE SAME. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY BE A BIT FURTHER EAST...IN COMPARISON TO THE CURRENT LOW TRACK. THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH FASTER THEN THE GFS FOR DAY 7. A PROLONG SE FLOW SHOULD START GRADUALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PICK UP IN STRENGTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY HAZARD FOR THOSE LATE PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INITIAL RENEGADE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...BUT TRY TO HOLD POPS DOWN IN SE DOWNSLOPE FOR A TIME INTO TUESDAY. WILL ALSO TRY TO DEPICT SOME SE WARMING CRW TO CKB TUESDAY...WHILE HOLDING BKW COOLER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING AT THE ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS VEERING TO AROUND THE 260 DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS AREA WIDE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE. CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND GUSTS AND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ007>011- 014>020-027>032-035>040-046-047. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-084-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...26  FXUS61 KRLX 121942 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 242 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT EXITS. REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS EVIDENT BY THE LOWERING DEWPOINTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THIS FRONT AS CRW STILL SITS AT THE 70F MARK AS OF 19Z. TEMPERATURES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH READINGS DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO SIGNIFICANT POPS LEFT FOR THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...STILL KEEPING THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THIS TO LOW END POPS. EXPECT THE WIND TO DECREASE A BIT...ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS...THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE STILL AT WORK...WILL BE FAR FROM A CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ON THE STRONG SIDE...SO MIXING TOMORROW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL GUSTY CONDITIONS...BUT NOT WHAT THEY ARE WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH. MOUNTAINS WILL STILL SEE 25-35KTS. CONSIDERABLY COOLER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT SOME SUN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOWLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OSCILLATE IN AND OUT OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH SLATED TO DROP CLOUDS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO HEADING INTO THE SHORT TERM. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPSLOPE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS FORMING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS VERY LIMITED AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR OVER TURNING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WINDS CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TENDS TO ALWAYS INCLUDE RADIATION. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN WILL ERODE ON SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED TO RUN COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS REMAINING COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS THIN AND EVAPORATE IN THE NE...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. WENT COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT GFS MOS EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CATCHING UP TO OUR THINKING FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO REPEAT ITSELF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. YET...NOTHING REPEATS EXACTLY THE SAME. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY BE A BIT FURTHER EAST...IN COMPARISON TO THE CURRENT LOW TRACK. THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH FASTER THEN THE GFS FOR DAY 7. A PROLONG SE FLOW SHOULD START GRADUALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PICK UP IN STRENGTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY HAZARD FOR THOSE LATE PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INITIAL RENEGADE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...BUT TRY TO HOLD POPS DOWN IN SE DOWNSLOPE FOR A TIME INTO TUESDAY. WILL ALSO TRY TO DEPICT SOME SE WARMING CRW TO CKB TUESDAY...WHILE HOLDING BKW COOLER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING AT THE ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS VEERING TO AROUND THE 260 DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS AREA WIDE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE. CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND GUSTS AND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ007>011- 014>020-027>032-035>040-046-047. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-084-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...26  FXUS61 KRLX 041040 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 640 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and sunny again today though a low pressure system slowly drags a cold front through Monday night. Upper low with cooler conditions and showers midweek. High pressure by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Sunday... No changes. As of 130 AM Sunday... Another dry, sunny day though clouds will be on the increase this afternoon. Chances for rain increase this evening and especially overnight as a slow moving front moves through the area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Low pressure wave will move east across southern zones at the start of the period, with showers and thunderstorms, some heavy at times as it does so. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall still exists across the CWA on Monday with this wave, but overall, concern for water issues is low at this point, due to several days of dry weather ahead of this feature. Cold front will dig south into the region late Monday night into Tuesday, with additional showers and thunderstorms possible, particularly across southeast Ohio and adjacent WV and KY zones out ahead of the front Monday afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong, with damaging winds and hail the primary concerns. A marginal risk for severe storms exists for aforementioned counties. Frontal boundary to the south of the CWA on Tuesday, with upper low digging south across the region, with much cooler, and unsettled weather for the remainder of the short term period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Upper low will continue to affect the area on Thursday with cool weather and showery conditions. Models begin to show differences towards the end of the long term period, but overall, a brief break in the precipitation is possible late in the week as the upper low finally moves off to the east, but another front is possible over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z Sunday thru 00Z Monday... As of 630 AM Sunday... VFR today. Rain begins to move into the area by the end of the period. IFR probabilities begin to increase after 09Z - mainly in the south. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High becoming medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precip may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR stratus possible Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JW  FXUS61 KRLX 251734 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through midweek. Cold front to bring cooler temperatures but limited precipitation Thurday. Another weak system by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... High pressure dominates the weather the start the week. This will bring dry conditions with daytime highs well above normal. High clouds, thanks to Hurricane Maria will linger during this time. Morning river valley fog will be the only real weather concern. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Monday... Although our upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will slowly break down, it will continue to dominate our weather with dry and warm conditions through mid week. Temperatures will continue well above normal with no rain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... Finally a change in the pattern from a stagnant to a quite progressive one. A northern stream upper trough will push a cold front through the region from the northwest to start the period. However, with Maria forecast to stay east of our area, it will have the effect of robbing moisture from the cold front. Thus, all models have a significant but dry cold front coming across Thursday, with the main change being much cooler but still dry air for the end of the work week. Temperatures will go from well above normal to near normal. There will be a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the weekend under a cold upper trough. So while a light shower with this feature cannot be ruled out for the weekend, chances are not high enough to include at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... VFR will continue through the daytime hours into the early evening hours. River valley fog will develop once again. LIFR conditions are anticipated in this region. By sunrise, fog will lift. By mid morning, conditions will return to VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today then low to medium overnight into tomorrow morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog depth and density might vary across the area. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/MC NEAR TERM...JB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JB  FXUS61 KRLX 200646 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 246 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front today with high pressure resulting in refreshing weather for Tuesday. A gradually warming Wednesday through Friday along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 227 AM Monday... A band of showers moving across SE OH, associated with a strip of 925-H85 frontogenetic forcing, should continue to shift east overnight...but should gradually weaken or even dissipate significantly as they do so. Farther west, a primary sfc cold front will push east across KY/OH through late tonight and move across our CWA during the day..exiting the area by roughly mid afternoon. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered showers may accompany the front itself, but coverage of the precip should generally be low during the daytime hours. Breezy and gusty westerly sfc winds are expected to develop during the day as CAA becomes established. Despite CAA developing, it will still be relatively warm today as the thermal profile does not begin to cool significantly until mid/late afternoon. However, max temps today should be several degrees lower than Sunday's values (it will also feel less humid as drier air spreads into the region). Surface high pressure axis is prog to extend southeastward into the region tonight with wind profiles relaxing. If wind speeds weaken enough and cloud cover remains thin enough (currently expecting greatest cloud thickness/coverage to be located across the NE CWA), then many areas may fall into the 40s for overnight lows. Am a little worried about how much soil moisture values will prevent max cooling from occurring, but regardless tonight will feel rather crisp. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 244 PM Sunday... A surface high pressure system builds from the northwest to provide dry and about normal temperatures under light northerly flow Monday night into Tuesday night. Lows will range from the lower 50s lowlands to the low 40s highest elevations. Highs Tuesday will stay a around 70 degrees lowlands ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday... On Wednesday morning, a warm front develops south of the area and should gradually lift north under increasing southwest flow into early Thursday. Then, the area will remain in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. Model's consensus indicate warm air and moisture advection will gradually increase through the end of the week. Temperatures will increase from the mid 80s Wednesday, to around 90 degrees Thursday and Friday. Showers and storms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 119 AM Monday... VFR currently expected to prevail through most of the TAF period. A cold front will push from west to east across the region beginning late tonight and through the day Monday. Some scattered low level cloudiness may occur during the morning, but overall CIGs are currently expected to remain at VFR levels. A few -SHRA may also occur along the front, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to include in TAFs attm. Front pushes east of the area by the afternoon with breezy to gusty Wrly sfc winds developing, aloNg with VFR prevailing. Winds should weaken this evening and become more NWrly as high pressure builds into the region. Some bkn MVFR CIGs may try to push into the area late in the TAF period, primarily across KPKB/KCKB/KEKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBYS and CIGs may briefly lower is a shower moves directly over an aerodrome. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/20/19 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/RG NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RH