FXUS61 KPHI 200749 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 349 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS, AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY INCLUDE FOG...POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTENT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL MARYLAND AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY IS MAINTAINING ITSELF. THIS IS COURTESY OF THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. INSTABILITY IS LACKING...AND LIGHTNING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE RICH LOW LEVEL FLOW SPREADING OUT UNDER THE LOW INVERSION (UNDER 600 FEET ON SOME RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KPHL). COOLING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALLOWED THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE...AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. TO THIS POINT...IT REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95...BUT THIS MAY NOT LAST. THE GEOCAT IMAGES SHOW THAT THE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EASING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRUNDLING EAST FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY INHIBIT FURTHER COOLING OF THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DEPENDING ON TRENDS...EXPANSION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 600 AM. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE FOG MAY SLOW THE EROSION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING...AND THE FOG COULD HOLD IN PLACE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL CLOSE TO NOON. OTHERWISE...THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO A HIGHER LAYER LATER THIS MORNING...AND COULD BREAK THIS AFTERNOON FOR A TIME WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED...SO THE HOLES COULD FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO WEST OF WHERE THE STRATUS INFLUENCES THE STABILITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WEST...THE AIRMASS RECOVERY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE INCOMPLETE...AND FOR THIS REASON THUNDER WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING AN ADVENTURE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO THE COAST (WHERE THE FOG/STRATUS ARE N PLACE NOW)...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DELAYED HEATING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LOWER THAN MOS. CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95...THE HEATING WILL BE DELAYED...BUT BY HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S HERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE BASED ON FULL SUN. SINCE THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE...HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF PHILADELPHIA...WHERE THE SUNSHINE SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST EFFECT...HIGHS WERE BASED CLOSER ON THE MOST BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND UP BY 0300 UTC OR SO...AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM FILLS...AND ANY LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FIZZLES. THE PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE (AGAIN) STRATUS AND FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE AS MOISTURE FILLED AS THIS MORNING...SO THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AS MUCH COVERAGE TONIGHT AS IT HAS THIS MORNING. LOWS WERE MAINLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND. LOWS CLOSER TO THE COAST WERE SHADED DOWN...AS THE FOG SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES THERE TO FALL JUST BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR TWO THINGS. FIRST, WITH THE HIGH OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS WE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. THEN WHEN THE FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES AFTER DAYBREAK WE WILL SEE THE SECOND THING THE HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AND THAT IS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY MAKE THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION AND ITS POSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW THERMOMETERS HIT 80 DEGREES EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THEN, ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END. A STRONG STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WRT THIS SYS BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE PATN IS QUITE SIMILAR BETWEEN THE MDLS. IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHCS OF SEEING RAIN OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCD H5 TROF THEN EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. DRY WX AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE LOW IMPACTS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE IFR STRATUS AND FOG IS MOVING WEST FROM NEW JERSEY AND SHOULD IMPACT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AIRPORTS BEFORE 0700 UTC. FOG APPEARS TO BE AS MUCH OF A PROBLEM AS THE STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL AND KILG. KMIV AND KACY AREA ALREADY LIFR...AND WITH THE LIGHT ONSHORE MOISTURE LADEN FLOW CONTINUING...THERE IS NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE BEST TIMING FOR LIFR CONDITIONS AT KPHL AND KILG WOULD BE 1000 UTC TO ABOUT 1400 UTC...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY BEING THE BIGGER PROBLEM. THE IFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS...AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ABOVE IT WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE EROSION PROCESS. BEST TIMING FOR THE BREAK OUT IS ABOUT 1400/1500 UTC FOR KPHL...AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 1800 UTC AT KMIV/KACY. AFTER THIS...ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VFR CEILINGS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE FOG/STRATUS BANK PROBABLY LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...AND STARTS TO COME BACK WEST THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY START BY 0300 UTC AT KACY/KMIV...AND REACH KPHL CLOSE TO 0500 UTC WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT FOG COULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD PROBLEM BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG ARE PSBL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LARGE HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS S AND SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LESS STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO THE ONSET OF RAIN ON SATURDAY BUT IT COULD BE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING, BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME, REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WX AND VFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AS WELL. && .MARINE... MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING (AND NOW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOW SHOWING) A SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST. THE NET EFFECT OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE TO TRY TO BRING WINDS BACK TOWARD THE EAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS FAIRLY WEAK...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW WILL HAVE LITTLE NET EFFECT ON THE WIND DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY SWELL COULD INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...SO NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO MAY BE THE FOG. THE LOW CLOUD IMAGES AND GEOCAT IMAGES SHOW THAT THE FOG IS EXPANDING THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE WATERS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE FOG MAY THIN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT RETREATS...BUT PROBABLY NEVER REALLY LEAVES THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING THE FOG BACK ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OFF THE COAST AND BOTH THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS, APPROACHES THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SEAS TO SETTLE BACK DOWN. && && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071. NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>024- 026-027. DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...HAYES SHORT TERM...HAYES LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...HAYES/NIERENBERG MARINE...HAYES/NIERENBERG  FXUS61 KPHI 201349 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 949 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS, AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING LOW FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ANY CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW TO OCCUR. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY MIDDAY, BUT WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REACHED...THE HOLES IN THE CLOUDS COULD FILL BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO WEST OF WHERE THE STRATUS INFLUENCES THE STABILITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON WEST...THE AIRMASS RECOVERY LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE INCOMPLETE...AND FOR THIS REASON THUNDER WAS LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD END UP BEING AN ADVENTURE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE ONSHORE FLOW AND DELAYED HEATING SHOULD KEEP HIGHS LOWER THAN MOS. CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 95...THE HEATING WILL BE DELAYED...BUT BY HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S HERE...BUT THAT WOULD BE BASED ON FULL SUN. SINCE THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE...HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE COOLER GFS MOS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF PHILADELPHIA...WHERE THE SUNSHINE SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST EFFECT...HIGHS WERE BASED CLOSER ON THE MOST BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND UP BY 0300 UTC OR SO...AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM FILLS...AND ANY LEFTOVER INSTABILITY FIZZLES. THE PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE (AGAIN) STRATUS AND FOG. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE AS MOISTURE FILLED AS THIS MORNING...SO THE FOG/STRATUS SHOULD HAVE AS MUCH COVERAGE TONIGHT AS IT HAS THIS MORNING. LOWS WERE MAINLY BASED ON A MOS BLEND. LOWS CLOSER TO THE COAST WERE SHADED DOWN...AS THE FOG SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES THERE TO FALL JUST BELOW THE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGE ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR TWO THINGS. FIRST, WITH THE HIGH OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS WE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. THEN WHEN THE FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATES AFTER DAYBREAK WE WILL SEE THE SECOND THING THE HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AND THAT IS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY UNDER A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY MAKE THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION AND ITS POSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW THERMOMETERS HIT 80 DEGREES EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THEN, ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END. A STRONG STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WRT THIS SYS BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE PATN IS QUITE SIMILAR BETWEEN THE MDLS. IT LOOKS AS IF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, WITH THE BEST CHCS OF SEEING RAIN OCCURRING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCD H5 TROF THEN EXITS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. DRY WX AND COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WELL AS THE LOW IMPACTS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE IFR ST AND FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR GOING TO VFR BY MIDDAY JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE FOG/STRATUS BANK PROBABLY LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...AND STARTS TO COME BACK WEST THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY START BY 0300 UTC AT KACY/KMIV...AND REACH KPHL CLOSE TO 0500 UTC WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT FOG COULD BE A MORE WIDESPREAD PROBLEM BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG ARE PSBL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN A RETURN TO VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LARGE HIGH REMAINS OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS S AND SW WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LESS STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. THEN, A STORM SYSTEM, CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO THE ONSET OF RAIN ON SATURDAY BUT IT COULD BE AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING, BUT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DURING THIS TIME, REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL DEPART THE REGION ON MONDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WX AND VFR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AS WELL. && .MARINE... A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND AND A VERY WEAK MESO LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EASTERLY SWELL COULD INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...SO NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED THIS MORNING. IN ANY EVENT...PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO MAY BE THE FOG. THE LOW CLOUD IMAGES AND GEOCAT IMAGES SHOW THAT FOG IS COVERING MUCH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THE FOG MAY THIN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT RETREATS...BUT PROBABLY NEVER REALLY LEAVES THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BRING THE FOG BACK ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OFF THE COAST AND BOTH THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS, APPROACHES THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND BOTH THE WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCA FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE SEAS TO SETTLE BACK DOWN. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ067>071. NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012>024- 026-027. DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG/RPW NEAR TERM...HAYES/RPW SHORT TERM...HAYES LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...HAYES/NIERENBERG/RPW MARINE...HAYES/NIERENBERG/RPW  FXUS61 KPHI 062346 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 746 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY, THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... DENSE GROUND FOG CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT. PUBLIC PRODUCTS UPDATED AT 555PM HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN MANY OF THE ZONES AND THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED IN DE. LIGHT WIND...CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN WHAT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLEAR - NO WIND NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PA SPELLS TROUBLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE PATCHY LOW CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED VCNTY KACY SINCE ABOUT 19Z...FIRST ALERT TO A BIGGER FOG/LOW CIG PROBLEM. GEOCAT SATELLITE AND SREF PROBS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH FOG/LOW CIG CHANCE AND MOST OF THE MET AND MAVMOS GUIDANCE IS NOT INTERESTED IN FOG/LOW CIGS...YET THE MASS FIELDS OF BL AND SFC RH SEEM TO BE MORE PLAUSIBLE. WE SHOULD KNOW BY 02Z AS A FEW OF THE TEMP/DEWS START GETTING TO 100 PCT RH IN S NJ/DE. THE PREVIOUSLY STRONG TSTMS IN THE BGM AND CTP CWA'S PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NW EDGE OF OUR FA...FAR NE PA AND NW NJ BETWEEN 01Z-05Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...BY 14Z. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION-FREE, BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE KEPT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS IN THE AFTN HOURS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...ARE EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...AND ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. WITH HURRICANE LESLIE STILL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...SWELLS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, HOWEVER WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO NOT CLOSE OFF AS THE SHORT WAVE TIMING DOES NOT ALLOW FOR THE ENERGY TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER FRIDAY THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOOKS TO TURN OUR WEATHER ACTIVE FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING ARRIVES STARTING SUNDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AS AIR/FLOW IS DIRECTED DOWN FROM CANADA. OTHERWISE, TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE LOOKS TO TRACK WELL EAST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN HPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER ALTHOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION. HPC WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES WELL TO OUR WEST A WEAK FRONT OR WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE STALLING NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WEALTH OF MOISTURE OR FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES SOUTHWARD, THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. THE BOUNDARY THOUGH MAY BECOME A WARM FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WAA GETS UNDERWAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING LATE. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WAS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AS IT ARRIVES, HOWEVER THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TIMING IS SUCH TO NOT ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. AS A RESULT, THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A DECENT AMOUNT OF INCREASING ASCENT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE TIMING ON SATURDAY MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW SHARP THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GETS. OVERALL, THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP GRIDS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. A PLUME OF HIGHER PW VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND AT NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS, IT APPEARS THAT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. ANY ROBUST STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND GET GOING EARLY ENOUGH, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY BE DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO PARALLEL THE FRONT FOR A TIME, THEREFORE LINES OF CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS, ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS A LITTLE SLOWER. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS, WE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED THE POPS ON SUNDAY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAY TRY TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS. FOR NOW, WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BEING CONFINED CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TENDS TO LIFT OUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EVENTUALLY SETTLE RIGHT OVER OUR REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH MAY THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM FRONT ORGANIZING WELL TO OUR WEST. DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A COOLER AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE ALONG WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. FOR THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA, THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS OF NOW, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS COLD FRONT THEREFORE WE FAVORED A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP VCNTY KACY/KMIV AND PROBABLY SPREAD INTO OTHER PARTS OF OUR TAF REGION DURING THE NIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...NO TSTMS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THOUGH THE STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY REACH KRDG AND KABE AS A DYING SHOWER ARD 03Z- 04Z TIME FRAME. OTRW VFR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND UNTIL THE FOG/STRATUS...ITS EXTENSIVENESS BEING UNCERTAIN BUT ITS IN THE TAFS NOW. FRIDAY...VFR. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE THROUGH MOST OF IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A FURTHER DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z. EXCEPT FOR SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EVENING, HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. MAINLY VFR, THEN PERHAPS SUB-VFR LATE AS SOME FOG AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH SHOULD TAKE PLACE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY. && .MARINE... SCA QUANDRY FOR THE ATLC WATERS...LONG PERIOD SWELL BUT PERSISTENTLY ARD 4 FT UNTIL IT INCREASES AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. MAY CANCEL THE SCA AT 850 PM PENDING ANOTHER CHECK OF THE DATA. ITS A MARGINAL SCA AS NOW POSTED. THE HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. GFS WW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INCREASE THE SWELLS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...TRYING TO BEGIN THAT PROCESS FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ON DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. OUTLOOK... DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BASED ON THIS, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH 10Z SATURDAY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES AS THIS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO A GENERIC ADVISORY FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE BUILDING SWELLS WILL PROBABLY PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LEAD TO ROUGH CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND OUTLETS AND JETTIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. && .RIP CURRENTS... A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. BASED ON AVAILABLE INFORMATION TO THIS MOMENT...WILL NOT EXTEND THE HIGH RISK BEYOND 9PM TONIGHT...INSTEAD OPT FOR AN ENHANCED MDT RISK FOR TOMORROW-FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE REMAINING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR ATLANTIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BUILDING OF THE SWELLS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF LESLIE AND HOW HIGH THE SEAS GET, CONDITIONS MAY NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTM...THE RISK OF THE HIGH SURF ADVY CRITERIA IN OUR WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FROM 2 DAYS AGO DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST TRACK OF LESLIE. WE MAY DROP THIS IDEA FROM THE HWO FRIDAY MORNING PENDING ONE MORE GFS RUN AND CHECK OF SURF HT FROM A LOCAL PROGRAM. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER... WHAT WE THINK. FIRST...THE HURRICANE VERSION OF THE WW MODEL IS RUNNING LOW... ESPECIALLY ON THE DOMINANT PERIOD OF THE SWELL. THEREFORE WE AGAIN DROP THIS FROM THE PROJECTIONS. THE FOLLOWING DAILY PROJECTIONS ARE FROM THE 12Z/6 GFS WW3 DOMINANT SWELL INFORMATION AT 44009 WITH A BLEND OF MMG AND MMENE1 FCST WINDS AT 18Z THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEREAFTER THE ECMWF 2M WINDS. THE 18Z VERSION IS ALMOST SPOT ON WITH THE 12Z PREDICTION. LESLIES SWELLS WILL HAVE A RIP CURRENT FORMATION IMPACT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY. FRIDAY....4 FT 13 SEC WIND 1208 6.0 MDT RISK SURF 5FT SATURDAY..5 FT 13 SEC WIND 1920 8.5 HIGH RISK SURF 5FT SUNDAY....5 FT 14 SEC WIND 3315 7.0 HIGH RISK SURF 4 FT MONDAY....6 FT 15 SEC WIND 3415 8.0 HIGH RISK SURF 5 FT TUESDAY...4 FT 13 SEC WIND 3415 7.0 HIGH RISK SURF 4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 3-4 FT 12 SEC PERIOD WIND LESS THAN 10 KT STILL PROJECTS A MARGINAL MDT RISK. THE PROJECTIONS ABOVE MAY END UP BEING A CATEGORY TOO HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LESLIE. AS IT STANDS NOW...A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF HIGH RISK DAYS ARE PROJECTED FOR THIS SATURDAY AND MONDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014- 024>026. DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/DRAG 745 NEAR TERM...DRAG 745 SHORT TERM...DRAG/MIKETTA LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 745 MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/MIKETTA 745 RIP CURRENTS...745  FXUS61 KPHI 070518 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 118 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY, THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... OF THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR, THE GFS BY FAR HAS THE GREATEST CLUE AS TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN CENTRAL PA. NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF. WE UPPED THE POPS NEAR THE BGM AND CTP BORDER FOR THE TSRA CLUSTER. THE ONE CELL WE WARNED ON WAS SUPERCELLULAR AT A TIME AND WAS INGESTING/MERGING WEAKER CELLS. WITHOUT NEW CELLS TO FEED INTO IT AND ALSO GIVEN THE TIME OF NGT, THEY ARE OVERALL WEAKENING AS ENTERING CARBON COUNTY. GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WOULD SEEM LIMITED TOWARD THE LUZERNE/SCHUYLKILL BORDER. FOG CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT. LIGHT WIND...CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EARLIER TODAY AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN WHAT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLEAR - NO WIND NIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PA SPELLS TROUBLE. GEOCAT SATELLITE AND SREF PROBS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH FOG/LOW CIG CHANCE AND MOST OF THE MET AND MAVMOS GUIDANCE IS NOT INTERESTED IN FOG/LOW CIGS...YET THE MASS FIELDS OF BL AND SFC RH SEEM TO BE MORE PLAUSIBLE. FOG HAS SO FAR BEEN SLOW TO FORM. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... PATCHY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY...BY 14Z. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION-FREE, BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE KEPT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS IN THE AFTN HOURS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...ARE EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...AND ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. WITH HURRICANE LESLIE STILL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...SWELLS ALONG THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, HOWEVER WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO NOT CLOSE OFF AS THE SHORT WAVE TIMING DOES NOT ALLOW FOR THE ENERGY TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. AS THIS AMPLIFICATION OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER FRIDAY THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS LOOKS TO TURN OUR WEATHER ACTIVE FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRYING ARRIVES STARTING SUNDAY. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AS AIR/FLOW IS DIRECTED DOWN FROM CANADA. OTHERWISE, TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE LOOKS TO TRACK WELL EAST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN HPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER ALTHOUGH SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION. HPC WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES WELL TO OUR WEST A WEAK FRONT OR WIND SHIFT SHOULD BE STALLING NEAR THE DELMARVA. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A WEALTH OF MOISTURE OR FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES SOUTHWARD, THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING. THE BOUNDARY THOUGH MAY BECOME A WARM FRONT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS WAA GETS UNDERWAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR INCREASING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING LATE. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WAS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AS IT ARRIVES, HOWEVER THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TIMING IS SUCH TO NOT ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO. AS A RESULT, THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST DURING SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A DECENT AMOUNT OF INCREASING ASCENT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE TIMING ON SATURDAY MAY BE SLOW ENOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW SHARP THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GETS. OVERALL, THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP GRIDS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING SATURDAY NIGHT. A PLUME OF HIGHER PW VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND AT NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVING AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR INCREASING LIFT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OCCURS, IT APPEARS THAT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. ANY ROBUST STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND GET GOING EARLY ENOUGH, ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY BE DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO PARALLEL THE FRONT FOR A TIME, THEREFORE LINES OF CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO STEADILY MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA AT 12Z SUNDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THIS, ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS A LITTLE SLOWER. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS, WE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED THE POPS ON SUNDAY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH AXIS MAY TRY TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS. FOR NOW, WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH THE MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BEING CONFINED CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TENDS TO LIFT OUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO EVENTUALLY SETTLE RIGHT OVER OUR REGION. THIS SURFACE HIGH MAY THEN BEGIN SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM FRONT ORGANIZING WELL TO OUR WEST. DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A COOLER AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE ALONG WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. FOR THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH AS A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW A WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA, THEN A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS OF NOW, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LOT OF MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS COLD FRONT THEREFORE WE FAVORED A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WERE VERY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. 06Z TAF WAS SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG PROSPECTS TOWARD MORNING, ALTHOUGH CAN NOT SAY WE ARE CONFIDENT IN EITHER DIRECTION. AT KABE AND KRDG WE BELIEVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL GET IN THE WAY OF DENSER FOG, ALTHOUGH A MVFR CIG IS FORECAST TO OCCUR (ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY). ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS INCLUDING KPHL WE BROUGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL. WE ARE WATCHING GEOCAT IMAG WHICH IS NOW STARTING TO SPREAD SOME HIGHER CHCS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN NJ. AT KACY AND KMIV WE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING AS PER THE PREVIOUS STATEMENT. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z OR 14Z AT THE TERMINALS AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS OCCURRING, TOO LOW AND TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN ANY SPECIFIC TERMINALS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL START LIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT. ANOTHER EVENING AND NIGHT IN THE SAME HUMID AIR MASS AND WE ARE CONFIDENT OF MORE FOG BRINGING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS AS IT PROGRESSES. WE STARTED MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH SHOULD TAKE PLACE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY. && .MARINE... SCA QUANDRY FOR THE ATLC WATERS...LONG PERIOD SWELL BUT PERSISTENTLY ARD 4 FT UNTIL IT INCREASES AGAIN LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. DELAYED THE SCA FOR SEAS TIL FRI AFTN OR NIGHT IN THE CWF PRODUCT RELEASE AROUND 840 PM. THE HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED AGAIN BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. GFS WW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INCREASE THE SWELLS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...TRYING TO BEGIN THAT PROCESS FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS ON DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. OUTLOOK... DUE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE, LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS NEARING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. BASED ON THIS, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH 10Z SATURDAY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES AS THIS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CHANGED TO A GENERIC ADVISORY FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE BUILDING SWELLS WILL PROBABLY PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL LEAD TO ROUGH CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND OUTLETS AND JETTIES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A NORTHERLY WIND GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. && .RIP CURRENTS... HIGH RISK CANCELLED WITH THE NEW SRF ISSUANCE FOR TOMORROW...MDT RISK. THE NEXT FCST SHIFT CAN INCREASE THIS RISK AGAIN IF THEIR REVIEW SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN FROM WHAT IS LISTED IN THE DAILY SUMMARY BELOW. DE BEACH PATROL INDICATED THAT IT WASNT TOO BAD DOWN THERE THIS MORNING. AS STATED IN THE SRF...LOWERING THE RISK FOR FORMATION OF RIP CURRENTS DOESNT MEAN THAT DONT FORM...THEY CAN FORM ANYTIME AND ANY PLACE...ITS JUST THAT CONDITIONS ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR THEIR FORMATION. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND AN INVITING 3 TO 4 FT 12 SECOND PERIOD SWELL CAN BE MISLEADING FOR SAFETY. THIS IS A TIME WHEN SWIMMING CAN BE MOST DANGEROUS... MISREADING THE POWER OF THE SURF AND ITS RETURN FLOWS TO THE SEA. ITS SIMILAR TO THE DANGER OF...THE THUNDERSTORM...JUST A FEW LIGHTNING STROKES AND RUMBLES IS NOT AS ALARMING TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER AS A MASSIVE LIGHTNING OUTBREAK WITH CONSTANT THUNDER. LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE REMAINING WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR ATLANTIC COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BUILDING OF THE SWELLS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF LESLIE AND HOW HIGH THE SEAS GET, CONDITIONS MAY NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTM...THE RISK OF THE HIGH SURF ADVY CRITERIA IN OUR WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FROM 2 DAYS AGO DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST TRACK OF LESLIE. WE MAY DROP THIS IDEA FROM THE HWO FRIDAY MORNING PENDING ONE MORE GFS RUN AND CHECK OF SURF HT FROM A LOCAL PROGRAM. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER... WHAT WE THINK. FIRST...THE HURRICANE VERSION OF THE WW MODEL IS RUNNING LOW... ESPECIALLY ON THE DOMINANT PERIOD OF THE SWELL. THEREFORE WE AGAIN DROP THIS FROM THE PROJECTIONS. THE FOLLOWING DAILY PROJECTIONS ARE FROM THE 12Z/6 GFS WW3 DOMINANT SWELL INFORMATION AT 44009 WITH A BLEND OF MMG AND MMENE1 FCST WINDS AT 18Z THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEREAFTER THE ECMWF 2M WINDS. THE 18Z VERSION IS ALMOST SPOT ON WITH THE 12Z PREDICTION. LESLIES SWELLS WILL HAVE A RIP CURRENT FORMATION IMPACT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY. FRIDAY....4 FT 13 SEC WIND 1208 6.0 MDT RISK SURF 5FT SATURDAY..5 FT 13 SEC WIND 1920 8.5 HIGH RISK SURF 5FT SUNDAY....5 FT 14 SEC WIND 3315 7.0 HIGH RISK SURF 4 FT MONDAY....6 FT 15 SEC WIND 3415 8.0 HIGH RISK SURF 5 FT TUESDAY...4 FT 13 SEC WIND 3415 7.0 HIGH RISK SURF 4 FT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 3-4 FT 12 SEC PERIOD WIND LESS THAN 10 KT STILL PROJECTS A MARGINAL MDT RISK. THE PROJECTIONS ABOVE MAY END UP BEING A CATEGORY TOO HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LESLIE. AS IT STANDS NOW...A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF HIGH RISK DAYS ARE PROJECTED FOR THIS SATURDAY AND MONDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI SHORT TERM...DRAG/MIKETTA LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/MIKETTA RIP CURRENTS...  FXUS61 KPHI 070747 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 347 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY, THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WHILE THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED COMPARABLE TO THE GFS, THE GFS IS HANDLING THE CONVECTION IN CENTRAL PA THE BEST. SO WE WENT WITH A COMBINATION OF GFS MASS FIELDS WITH THE WRF-NMMB THERMAL FIELDS FOR TODAY. WORTHWHILE FOG HAS NOT BEEN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. STEPPING OUTSIDE WHILE IT IS CONSIDERABLY MURKIER THAN LAST NIGHT, ITS AS IF THE DEW DEPOSITION (WHICH IS QUITE HEAVIER) IS TAKING AWAY FROM THE FOG. GEOCAT IFR PROBS REMAIN LOW. WE STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS TO GO, WE WILL JUST KEEP THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS, BUT STOP THERE. THE CONVECTION IN PA THAT HAS HAD AMAZING OVERNIGHT SUSTAINABILITY, WELL MAYBE NOT GIVEN HOW MUCH THERE HAS BEEN THE PAST WEEK, WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET AND A POCKET OF RELATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH TOTAL TOTALS WELL INTO THE 50S. THERE ALSO IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE. WHILE THESE FEATURES DO GO THEIR SEPARATE WAYS TODAY, THERE REMAINS A WEAKNESS IN THE FORCE FIELD LET'S SAY ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF OUR CWA. WITH LIKELY SOME BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION AND MAYBE A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SOURCE NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS, WE HAVE DECIDED TO PUT IN SOME POPS NW. THE 21Z SREF WENT TO TOWN WITH CAT POPS NW BECAUSE OF VERY HIGH FCST CAPES. WE WERE MORE SUBDUED THOUGH AS THE MODELS WERE SHOWING SOME FCST CIN AND ALSO CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR THE FCST HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY. WE DONT THINK WE CAN BLOW THE MAX TEMPS AS BADLY AS WE DID YESTERDAY BETWEEN THE PCPN LINGERING LONGER AND THE CIRRUS BEING THICKER. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD HAVE MORE SUN AND WE HAVE USED UPWIND OBSERVED 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND THEIR SUNNY MAX TEMPS AS A GUIDE. OVERALL ITS CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... WE ARE EXPECTING A QUICK END TO TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, SO NO POPS FOR TONIGHT. DONT THINK ANY DEBRIS PCPN WILL MAKE IT HERE BY MORNING. WHILE IT WILL BE HUMID TONIGHT, NOT SURE IF THE MOIST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD STRATUS THAN WIDESPREAD FOG, SO WE JUST WENT THE PATCHY ROUTE FOR THIS PACKAGE. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE, EXPECTING SOME CLEAR SKIES AND AT LEAST LIGHT WINDS FOR PART OF THE NIGHT. STAT GUIDANCE LOOKS OK OTHER THAN URBAN AREAS WHERE WE WENT HIGHER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MUCH OF THE WEATHER ACTION IN THE LONG TERM HAPPENS ON SATURDAY. A PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER SHARP H5 TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN APPROACH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WARM AND HUMID AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A DECENT WIND FIELD WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. POPS WERE KEPT AS IS OR RAISED FOR THE SAT AND SAT EVENING PERIODS. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A DAY2 RISK FOR SVR TSTMS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOWER CHC FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING SINCE ANY TSTMS WILL HAVE GOOD MOTION TO THEM. HWO WILL MENTION SVR THREAT...BUT NO ENHANCED WORDING IN THE PUBLIC ZONES ATTM. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND EXTENDED UNTIL THE END OF THE LONG TERM. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST LIFTS OUT SUN-MON AND A SFC HIGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN-MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED- THU AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUN-THU. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. 06Z TAF PACKAGE WAS SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG PROSPECTS TOWARD MORNING, ALTHOUGH CAN NOT SAY WE ARE CONFIDENT IN EITHER DIRECTION. AT KABE AND KRDG WE BELIEVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL GET IN THE WAY OF DENSER FOG, ALTHOUGH A MVFR CIG IS FORECAST TO OCCUR (ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY). WE HAVE SINCE AMENDED FOR THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS INCLUDING KPHL WE BROUGHT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO THE MVFR LEVEL. WE ARE WATCHING GEOCAT IMAG WHICH IS NOW STARTING TO SPREAD SOME HIGHER CHCS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN NJ. AT KACY AND KMIV WE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING AS PER THE PREVIOUS STATEMENT. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z OR 14Z AT THE TERMINALS AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS OCCURRING, TOO LOW AND TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN ANY SPECIFIC TERMINALS WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS WILL START LIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KT. ANOTHER EVENING AND NIGHT IN THE SAME HUMID AIR MASS AND WE ARE CONFIDENT OF MORE FOG BRINGING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS AS IT PROGRESSES. WE STARTED MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL SVR WEATHER POSSIBLE. SUN THRU TUE...VFR EXPECTED. && .MARINE... WE KEPT THE SCA HEADLINE TIMING AS IS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE SWELLS BACK UP TO 5 FEET THAN YESTERDAY, BUT THEY DO GET US THERE BY THIS EVENING AND KEEP US THERE FOR A WHILE. THERE WILL BECOME A WIND COMPONENT TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TOO, BUT NOT UNTIL THE OUTLOOK PERIOD ON SATURDAY. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS AND WAVES TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON DELAWARE BAY. OUTLOOK... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE HAZ SEAS SCA WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED TO A GENERIC SCA FOR WINDS AND SEAS SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE THIS SCA TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUN. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. A CONTINUATION OF SWELLS ON THE OCEAN WITH LONG PERIODS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .RIP CURRENTS... WE ARE EXPECTING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR TODAY, BUT WITH SWELLS FROM LESLIE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND PERSIST FOR A WHILE, WE SHOULD REMAIN IN MODERATE RISK AND LIKELY GO BACK TO A HIGH RISK ON THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O'HARA NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...O'HARA AVIATION...GIGI/O'HARA MARINE...GIGI/O'HARA RIP CURRENTS...GIGI  FXUS61 KPHI 140054 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 854 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT, APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF PATCHY FOG...AND THE THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. TO THIS POINT...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING IS KEEPING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WEST OF THE AREA. THE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND...DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS TO LINGER... MAKING THESE AREAS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG. ELSEWHERE...THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST QUESTION IS WHETHER STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG WITH THE FOG. 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...DUE MAINLY TO THE HEATING TODAY. HOWEVER...RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS DO SHOW LOW LEVEL (ALBEIT WEAK) INVERSIONS BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOWER LEVEL COOL AND MOISTEN (ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ONSHORE FLOW) THAT STRATUS COULD FORM. 1800 UTC NAM SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING TO THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH. THE GEOCAT CLOUD DEPTH PRODUCT IS SHOWING ISOLATED PATCHES OF CLOUDS UNDER 1000 FEET OVER PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND KSBY HAS SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 2000 FEET. THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND... DELAWARE AND SOUTHERNMOST NEW JERSEY WILL BE INCREASED BASED ON THE POTENTIAL...AND TRENDS WILL BE TRACKED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE LATEST TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... ANY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDINESS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 900 OR 1000 AM ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE IT INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. NEVERTHELESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE OF TODAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. IN THE MID LEVELS, A TROUGH DIGS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW AND PUSHES EASTWARD. THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND EXIT THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS LOOK TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT, IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MUCH OF A THREAT AT THIS TIME. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, IT ALSO DOESN'T SEEM LIKELY THAT MUCH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. PERHAPS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH OVERNIGHT SOME OF ITS ENERGY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES, WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT IT SEEMS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY LAGS WELL BEHIND THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME SO WE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THINGS START TO CLEAR OUR ON SATURDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND EARLY BUT SHOULD EXIT OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WE WILL FEEL ON MONDAY FROM A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE GFS IS PRETTY ROBUST AND PUSHES THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT INDICATION THAT A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD BUT THAT IT LARGELY REMAINS WEAK AND WE SEE LITTLE RAIN FROM IT. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS ON MONDAY, WE HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT, WITH RAIN MOVING IN ON MONDAY AND INCREASING POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WE SEE A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST, WE COULD SEE PWATS INCREASE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE. THE FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 0600 UTC FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 0800 UTC AND 1200 UTC FOR MOST LOCATIONS (WITH KPNE AND KABE MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR) AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH LIGHT WINDS. 1800 UTC NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR (AND POSSIBLY LIFR) CEILINGS...MAINLY BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1300 UTC FRIDAY. THIS WOULD APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE IS SOME LOWER CLOUDINESS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE...TRAPPED UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION...COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STRATUS...MAINLY CENTERED AROUND 1000 FEET. IT COULD BE THAT THE LOWER LEVELS ARE TOO DRY FOR STRATUS...BUT THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 1000 FEET WILL BE RETAINED FOR THE NEW FORECAST. ANY STRATUS AND PATCHY MVFR FOG SHOULD THIN OUT BY 1300 UTC FRIDAY...WITH A VFR DAY EXPECTED. CUMULUS WILL TRY TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR TO START ON MONDAY THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA, MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH THE DIRECTION FAVORING THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS. OUTLOOK... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENS UP A BIT. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE AREN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG SO EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD MIX EFFICIENTLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW, GUSTS DON'T LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 5 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEAS START TO RISE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MAKES IT WAY NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE, SEAS WILL START TO RISE TO NEAR 5 FEET ONCE AGAIN AND ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE PREDICATED MAINLY ON THE SWELL PERIOD FRIDAY. IF THE PERIOD REMAINS 11 SECONDS OR LONGER...A MODERATE RISK LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE PERIOD DROPS BELOW 10 SECONDS (WHICH THE 1800 UTC WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING)...WE WILL PROBABLY SIT ON THE CUSP OF MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. BASED ON THE ABOVE...A MODERATE RISK IS FORECAST FOR NEW JERSEY. AGAIN...THIS BASED MAINLY ON THE PERIOD (AS WELL AS TIDAL EFFECTS). FOR DELAWARE...LOCAL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A LOW RISK...AND THAT IS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...HAYES SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...HAYES/MEOLA MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA RIP CURRENTS...HAYES  FXUS61 KPHI 140406 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1206 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT, APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 1140 PM ESTF UPDATE SENT EARLY. LOWERED SOME OF THE COUNTRYSIDE TEMPS A BIT. DIDNT CHANGE THE PATCHY FOG SCENARIO. SHALLOW MOIST LAYER MAY FILL IN WITH PATCHY FOG/STRATUS BUT TSECS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS 24 HOURS AGO. SOME GEOCAT SIGNAL THAT A THIN LAYER OF STRATUS MAY BE FORMING SOON IN DELMARVA. UNTIL THE STRATUS FORMS...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDS IN PROGRESS BUT IN SOME PLACES A LIGHT S WIND IS A SLIGHTLY LIMITING FACTOR. ANOTHER /3RD CONSECUTIVE/ WONDERFUL DAY /FRIDAY/ IS UPCOMING FOR OUR FCST AREA IN A SSW FLOW WITH GUSTS UNDER 15 KTS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRIDAY NIGHT...CFP LATE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT. SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS WITH A LOW PROB ISO THUNDER BUT NO ML CAPE AND THE GFS IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY AS THE 00Z/14 NAM AND 12Z/13 EC. 00Z/14 UKMET HAS NOTHING. FOR NOW AM PLANNING TO FCST SLIGHT CHC. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THINGS START TO CLEAR OUR ON SATURDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND EARLY BUT SHOULD EXIT OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WE WILL FEEL ON MONDAY FROM A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE GFS IS PRETTY ROBUST AND PUSHES THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT INDICATION THAT A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD BUT THAT IT LARGELY REMAINS WEAK AND WE SEE LITTLE RAIN FROM IT. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS ON MONDAY, WE HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT, WITH RAIN MOVING IN ON MONDAY AND INCREASING POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WE SEE A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST, WE COULD SEE PWATS INCREASE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE. THE FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF OF PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG AFTER 08Z. LIGHT WIND. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...VFR. SOME CIRRUS WITH SCT CLOUDS NEAR 4000 FT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WIND SSW G UNDER 15 KTS. FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN CLOUDINESS ASSTD WITH CFP AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER DURING THE 04Z-10Z TIME FRAME. S WIND SHIFTING NW LATE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR TO START ON MONDAY THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA, MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MAINLY S WIND G UNDER 15 KTS THRU TODAY AND SSW G TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SHIFTING TO NW LATE. ELY SWELL OF 1-2 FT 10-12 SECS IN THE ATLC WATERS. OTRW WAVES AOB 3 FT. OUTLOOK... SEAS BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 5 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEAS START TO RISE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MAKES IT WAY NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE, SEAS WILL START TO RISE TO NEAR 5 FEET ONCE AGAIN AND ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE PREDICATED MAINLY ON THE SWELL PERIOD FRIDAY. IF THE PERIOD REMAINS 11 SECONDS OR LONGER...A MODERATE RISK LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE PERIOD DROPS BELOW 10 SECONDS (WHICH THE 1800 UTC WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING)...WE WILL PROBABLY SIT ON THE CUSP OF MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. BASED ON THE ABOVE...A MODERATE RISK IS FORECAST FOR NEW JERSEY. AGAIN...THIS BASED MAINLY ON THE PERIOD (AS WELL AS TIDAL EFFECTS). FOR DELAWARE...LOCAL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A LOW RISK...AND THAT IS THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...DRAG 1205 SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1205 LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...DRAG/HAYES/MEOLA 1205 MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/MEOLA 1205 RIP CURRENTS...  FXUS61 KPHI 140613 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 213 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MOST OF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT, APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME-FRAME. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1140 PM ESTF UPDATE SENT EARLY. LOWERED SOME OF THE COUNTRYSIDE TEMPS A BIT. DIDN'T CHANGE THE PATCHY FOG SCENARIO. KMMU HAS HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SINCE 03Z. SHALLOW MOIST LAYER MAY FILL IN WITH PATCHY FOG/STRATUS BUT TSECS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...GEOCAT SATELLITE CUES THAT A THIN LAYER OF STRATUS OR FOG MAY BE FORMING SOON IN DELMARVA....ESP W DE/MD BORDER WEST TO CHES BAY. PROBS FOR IFR SOON THERE ARE NOW UP TO NEARLY 50 PCT. UNTIL THE STRATUS FORMS...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDS IN PROGRESS BUT IN SOME PLACES A LIGHT S WIND IS A SLIGHTLY LIMITING FACTOR. ANOTHER /3RD CONSECUTIVE/ WONDERFUL DAY /TODAY/ IS UPCOMING FOR OUR FCST AREA IN A SSW FLOW WITH GUSTS UNDER 15 KTS. USED A 50/50 BLEND OF 00Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES FOR THE MAX AS WE'VE STRUGGLED TO REACH MOS MAX TEMP VALUES THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN WHAT IS A WARM MOS BIAS. LIGHT WIND BECOMES SSW G UNDER 15 KTS THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMP NEAR 90F AND SO NO AFTERNOON CU/SC EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF. THERE WILL BE VARIABLY THICK SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25000 FT TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... TONIGHT...CFP LATE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT. SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS WITH A LOW PROB ISO THUNDER BUT NO ML CAPE AND THE GFS IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH INSTABILITY AS THE 00Z/14 NAM AND 12Z/13 EC. 00Z/14 UKMET HAS NOTHING. FOR NOW AM PLANNING TO FCST 20-50 POP WITH HIGHEST IN THE POCONOS WHERE ITS CLOSER TO THE PROBABLE CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. PRIMARY RISK PERIOD FOR A SHOWER IS 03Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. OTRW FCST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/14 GFS NAM MOS FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THINGS START TO CLEAR OUR ON SATURDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND EARLY BUT SHOULD EXIT OFF THE COAST BY LATE MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. MODELS DIFFER AS TO JUST HOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT WE WILL FEEL ON MONDAY FROM A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. THE GFS IS PRETTY ROBUST AND PUSHES THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT INDICATION THAT A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD BUT THAT IT LARGELY REMAINS WEAK AND WE SEE LITTLE RAIN FROM IT. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS ON MONDAY, WE HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTACT, WITH RAIN MOVING IN ON MONDAY AND INCREASING POPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. OVERNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WE SEE A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST, WE COULD SEE PWATS INCREASE UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW, CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE LIMITED TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE. THE FRONT QUICKLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND WE SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MOST COMFORTABLE DAY LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG. LIGHT WIND. ALREADY FOG AT KMMU. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...VFR. VARIABLE CIRRUS. WIND SSW G UNDER 15 KTS. TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN CLOUDINESS ASSTD WITH CFP AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER FOR THE TAF SITES FM NW TO SE DURING THE 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. S WIND SHIFTING NW LATE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MAINLY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR TO START ON MONDAY THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE AREA, MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY S WIND G UNDER 15 KTS THRU TODAY AND SSW G TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SHIFTING TO NW LATE. ELY SWELL OF 1-2 FT 10-12 SECS IN THE ATLC WATERS. OTRW WAVES AOB 3 FT. OUTLOOK... SEAS BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 5 FEET AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SEAS START TO RISE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT MAKES IT WAY NORTHWARD AND THROUGH OUR AREA. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE, SEAS WILL START TO RISE TO NEAR 5 FEET ONCE AGAIN AND ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RIP CURRENTS... TODAY...RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE PRIMARILY PREDICATED ON THE SWELL PERIOD. IF THE PERIOD REMAINS 11 SECONDS OR LONGER...A MODERATE RISK LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE PERIOD DROPS BELOW 10 SECONDS (WHICH THE 1800 UTC WAVEWATCH IS SHOWING)...WE WILL PROBABLY SIT ON THE CUSP OF MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. THE SWELL IS FCST TO DECREASE TODAY AND IN NNJ AND OUT TO THE E OF NJ ITS DOWN TO 1.6 FT. IF THAT TREND ARRIVES AT 44009 BY 530 AM...WE'LL PROBABLY HEDGE IT LOW RISK WITH EXPECTED TRENDS CONTG TO LOWER THE SWELL HT. STILL UNCERTAIN WHICH WAY TO GO AS OF THIS WRITING. FOR SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY AS SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM LOW TO MDT DEPENDING ON THE PREDOMINANT PERIOD...BE IT A 1 FT 17 SEC FORERUNNER ARRIVING FROM NADINE OR 2 FT 8 SEC. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A 4 FT 14 SECOND SE SWELL IS STILL OUTLOOKED FOR SUNDAY FROM THE 00Z/14 WW3 AND THEN THAT EASES TO A 3 FT 12 SEC ESE SWELL MONDAY. TUESDAY IS A PROBABLE STRENGTHENING CFP AND EITHER WAY...3 FT 10 SEC LEFTOVERS FROM NADINE OR SLY PRE-CFP 6 FT 6 SEC SWELL...BOTH ARGUE FOR A MDT RISK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...DRAG 212 SHORT TERM...DRAG 212 LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA 212 MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 212 RIP CURRENTS...212  FXUS61 KPHI 140754 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 354 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO CROSS OUR AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KMMU HAS HAD SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG SINCE 03Z. SHALLOW MOIST LAYER MAY FILL IN WITH PATCHY FOG/STRATUS BUT TSECS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS 24 HOURS AGO. GEOCAT SATELLITE CUES HAVE LOWERED THEIR RISK ASSESSMENT FOR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN OUR DELMARVA PORTION OF THE CWA. UNTIL ANY STRATUS FORMS...IDEAL RADIATING CONDS IN PROGRESS. ANOTHER /3RD CONSECUTIVE/ WONDERFUL DAY /TODAY/ IS UPCOMING FOR OUR FCST AREA IN A SSW FLOW WITH GUSTS UNDER 15 KTS. USED A 50/50 BLEND OF 00Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES FOR THE MAX AS WE'VE STRUGGLED TO REACH MOS MAX TEMP VALUES THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IN WHAT IS A WARM MOS BIAS. LIGHT WIND BECOMES SSW G UNDER 15 KTS THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMP NEAR 90F AND SO NO AFTERNOON CU/SC EXPECTED AFTER THE MORNING FOG AND ANY STRATUS QUICKLY BURNS OFF. THERE WILL BE VARIABLY THICK SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 25000 FT TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT...CFP LATE WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT. SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS WITH A LOW PROB ISO THUNDER BUT NO ML CAPE. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST SINCE THE 00Z/14 ECMWF WAS A BIT MORE STABLE THAN ITS PRECEDING CYCLE. 00Z/14 UKMET HAS NO QPF. FOR NOW FCST 20-50 POP WITH HIGHEST IN THE POCONOS WHERE ITS CLOSER TO THE PROBABLE CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. PRIMARY RISK PERIOD FOR A SHOWER IS 03Z-09Z FM NW TO SE. OTRW FCST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/14 GFS NAM MOS FOR TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP STILL LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME DESPITE A MORE AMPLIFICATION OCCURS FOR A TIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH EVEN POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE FLOW MAY THEN MAINTAIN A LARGE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE AXIS COULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST OPENING THE DOOR FOR A MORE PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE EAST. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING QUICKLY TO OUR EAST EARLY SATURDAY. ANY SHOWER CHCS SHOULD BE DONE EARLY ON AS A RESULT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT AND ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SATURDAY, THEN THE FLOW LOOKS TO LESSEN SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CRESTS RIGHT OVER OUR REGION. THERE IS DECENT LOW-LEVEL CAA FORECAST TO OCCUR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEREFORE WITH DECENT SURFACE HEATING THE LOW-LEVEL RATES WILL STEEPEN ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD, THE RETURN FLOW UP THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A INCREASE IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THERE ALONG WITH AN ORGANIZING WARM FRONT. THIS WAA PUSH TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS GENERALLY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THE LIFT. SINCE THE MAIN FOCUSED WAA IS FARTHER WEST, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE RIGHT OVER US DURING SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY, SPLIT ENERGY EVOLVING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER FEATURES OF INTEREST. AS RIDGING SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. AS THE WAA CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN FOCUSING THE ASSOCIATED WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WHICH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCED SOME BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIANS FROM WEST VIRGINIA ON SOUTHWARD. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AIDE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE PW VALUE GUIDANCE /INCREASING INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE BY LATE AT NIGHT/. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THIS WILL GO INTO MOISTENING UP THE ATMOSPHERE, HOWEVER MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO BETTER LIFT. BASED ON THIS, WE GRADUALLY INCREASED THE POPS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE POPS TOP OUT AT LOW LIKELY VALUES LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR WEST. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A POTENTIALLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM DRIVES EASTWARD WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TENDING TO BE MAXIMIZED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD AT THE SAME TIME SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS, A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED BY A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE GFS IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER POTENT, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF A SHARPER SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DESPITE THIS, OTHER MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALSO AIDE IN ENHANCING THE SHEAR. A PLUME OF PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AUGMENTED BY WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. BASED ON THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCAL FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER LEADING INTO THIS EVENT /FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH LOWER IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/, FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE A LOW THREAT ATTM. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY TUESDAY AND A PORTION OF TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES AND THE MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA, WAA IN CONCERT WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT SHEAR, SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE HIGHEST VALUES ARE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE HIGHER THAN FARTHER INLAND. IF THE MLCAPE VALUES CAN BECOME HIGH ENOUGH THEN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN CHARGE SEPARATION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER, HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVING SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, WE INTRODUCED A CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF NOW, THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW GIVEN ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND LOWER INSTABILITY HOWEVER THIS MAY HAVE TO BE REVISITED IF POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN BE ATTAINED WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP IN EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL SWEEP THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE COAST AND SHUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THAT NEAR OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. WE TRENDED THE POPS DOWNWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME BASED ON THE IDEA THE COLD FRONT AND LIFT HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. FOR THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS SOME BUT THEN BECOMES MORE FOCUSED TO OUR WEST. A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE EAST WITH OUR AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL, THE SURFACE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT OVER OUR AREA AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVERHEAD BUT THEN STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE. OTHER THEN MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. MAINLY JUST A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF MOSGUIDE WAS BLENDED INTO THE TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT AND WIND GRIDS. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR BUT PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG NEAR THE NON URBAN TAF SITES. LIGHT WIND. AFTER 12Z...VFR. VARIABLE CIRRUS. WIND SSW G UNDER 15 KTS. TONIGHT...VFR TO START BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN CLOUDINESS ASSTD WITH CFP AND A POSSIBLE SHOWER FOR THE TAF SITES FM NW TO SE DURING THE 04Z-09Z TIME FRAME. S WIND SHIFTING NW LATE. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING SHOWER AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, BUT OVERALL VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE MAY BE A BIT GUSTY SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY. LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD BE ARRIVING MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES. AREAS OF SUB-VFR LOOK TO OCCUR MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY S WIND G UNDER 15 KTS THRU TODAY AND SSW G TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SHIFTING TO NW LATE. ELY SWELL OF 1-2 FT 10-12 SECS IN THE ATLC WATERS. OTRW WAVES AOB 3 FT. OUTLOOK... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A TIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH DECENT CAA. THE LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL ALLOW THE LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN RESULTING IN DEEPER MIXING. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 20 KNOTS WITHIN THIS MIXED LAYER, THEREFORE WINDS SHOULD BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. IN ADDITION, THE FLOW MAY END UP BEING MORE FROM THE NORTH INSTEAD OF NORTHWEST THEREFORE ANY ENHANCEMENT DOWN DELAWARE BAY SHOULD BE LIMITED. THE INCREASED FLOW MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO NEAR 5 FEET SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FARTHER OFFSHORE. FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A LESSENING WIND AND LOWERING SEAS, THEN WE GET IN ON A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES, WINDS LOOK TO GET TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO OR ABOVE 5 FEET. THE LATEST GFS MAY BE TO ROBUST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WHICH IS DRIVING SEAS TO ABOUT 8 FEET. FOR NOW, WE THROTTLED BACK ON THIS BY ABOUT A FOOT OR SO. && .RIP CURRENTS... TODAY...RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE PRIMARILY PREDICATED ON THE SWELL PERIOD. IF THE PERIOD REMAINS 11 SECONDS OR LONGER...A MODERATE RISK LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. IF THE PERIOD DROPS BELOW 10 SECONDS (WHICH THE 18Z/13 AND 00Z/14 WAVEWATCH ARE SHOWING)...WE WILL PROBABLY SIT ON THE CUSP OF MODERATE...ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. THE SWELL IS FCST TO DECREASE TODAY AND IN NNJ AND OUT TO THE E OF NJ ITS DOWN TO 1.6 FT. IF THAT TREND ARRIVES AT 44009 BY 530 AM...WE'LL PROBABLY HEDGE IT LOW RISK WITH EXPECTED TRENDS CONTG TO LOWER THE SWELL HT. STILL UNCERTAIN WHICH WAY TO GO AS OF THIS WRITING. FOR SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY AS SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM LOW TO MDT DEPENDING ON THE PREDOMINANT PERIOD...BE IT A 1 FT 17 SEC FORERUNNER ARRIVING FROM NADINE OR 2 FT 8 SEC. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A 4 FT 14 SECOND SE SWELL IS STILL OUTLOOKED FOR SUNDAY FROM THE 00Z/14 WW3 AND THEN THAT EASES TO A 3 FT 12 SEC ESE SWELL MONDAY. TUESDAY IS A PROBABLE STRENGTHENING CFP AND EITHER WAY...3 FT 10 SEC LEFTOVERS FROM NADINE OR SLY PRE-CFP 6 FT 6 SEC SWELL...BOTH ARGUE FOR A MDT RISK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG 352 SHORT TERM...DRAG 352 LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 352 MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 352 RIP CURRENTS...352  FXUS61 KPHI 050143 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 943 PM EDT THU OCT 4 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS HAS CLEARED THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND THE GRIDS DO NOT HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE TOUGHER PROBLEM IS HOW THICK WILL THE FOG BECOME. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN ALOFT, BUT OVERALL WIND SFC WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. SO WE STARTED THE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE GET GO UP NORTH IN NJ AND CONTINUED IT THROUGH THE NIGHT THERE. ELSEWHERE WE MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF ADDITIONAL FOG FORMING TOWARD MORNING IN MORE RURAL AREAS. WE WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN NJ AS SOME AIRPORTS ALREADY HAVE LOCALLY DENSE FOG. NOT VERY CONFIDENT ABOUT HOW THIS WILL PROCEED, BUT THINK THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL COMPENSATE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM OCCURRING. THE ONE LOCATION WE ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE THOUGH IS NORTHERN NJ WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL TODAY. STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DROP TEMPERATURES QUITE IMPRESSIVELY OVERNIGHT. WE REMAINED A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE PRESENT DEW POINTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND +12C AT 850 HPA RESULTING IN ANOTHER MILD DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE WEAK UPPER AND SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST DURING SATURDAY. AN ONGOING PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT WILL BRING LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT DURING SATURDAY. ORGANIZED PCPN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TO OUR WEST...EARLY SATURDAY FALLS APART AS THE FRONT SEEMS TO OUTRUN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. POPS WERE HELD IN THE CHC RANGE FOR SAT AT THIS POINT. THE BETTER CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...WE WILL KEEP ONLY SLGT CHC POPS FOR SAT THEN CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. SAT WILL BE THE LAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR AWHILE WITH SOME MID 70S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE MID 60S WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW 60S OVER THE DELMARVA AREA. THESE READINGS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. A BATCH OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT SUN. LOW LIKELY POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. QPF COULD BE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH READINGS MODERATING BY WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME FROST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD OF JUST PATCHY...SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FURTHER SOUTH...LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MON AND TUE THEN ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. CHC POPS WERE INSERTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE 00Z TAFS CONTAIN SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AT OUR EASTERN TERMINALS AND THEN MAINLY MVFR AT OUR MORE RURAL TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN IF ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL PREVENT KACY AND KMIV FROM HAVING FOG LATER THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BE CLEAR AT ALL OF THE TERMINAL SITES AND ANY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE FIVE KNOTS OR LESS. SO ITS ONE OF THOSE UNEASY SCENARIOS WHERE DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN, BUT NOT WITH ENOUGH WIND TO REMOVE CONCERNS ABOUT SOME FOG FORMING. THEREFORE WE HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE MORE RURAL, OUTLYING TERMINALS AND ALSO KEPT SOME IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE AT KRDG. WITH CLEAR SKIES ABOVE, THE FOG WHERE IT DOES FORM WILL BURN OFF MUCH QUICKER THAN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 13Z. THE FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ON FRIDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH, SO WE ARE ONLY FORECASTING A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WEST AROUND 10KT. LATER IN THE DAY MESOSCALE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A BAY BREEZE TO FORM (BUT NOT GET TO KILG), OTHERWISE THE SEA BREEZE IF IT DOES FORM LATE SHOULD NOT GET OFF THE COAST (AS IN WESTWARD) BY MUCH IF AT ALL. IF ANYTHING THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE OVERALL WINDS SHOULD JUST BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS REFLECTED IN SOME OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY. SUN-SUN NIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR AT TIMES. MON-TUE...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... GEOCAT SATELLITE IFR PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW OVER THE AREA WATERS (HAVE DECREASED SOUTH) AND WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ARRIVING AT THE COAST, WE DID NOT PERSIST THE FOG OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE NIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE PERIOD OUTLOOK... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THEN. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O'HARA NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...O'HARA AVIATION...GIGI/O'HARA MARINE...IOVINO  FXUS61 KPHI 240446 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1246 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN. STAY TUNED TO LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS BACKED INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS CONTINUE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SURFACE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO HAVE POOLED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA (WITH A LINK TO THE MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES). THE MOISTURE LINK (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.30 INCHES...AS SEEN ON THE 0000 UTC KOKX SOUNDING) SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE...AND EXTRAPOLATION AND NEAR TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY REMAIN THE FOCAL POINT FOR LIGHT RAIN. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WERE RETAINED HERE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...AND THE DIGITAL FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS. IN ADDITION...THE CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE DUAL POL PRODUCTS INDICATE THAT THE RETURNS ARE PRECIPITATION WITH FAIRLY LOW TOPS. CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE (SAVE FOR SOUTHERNMOST DELAWARE). GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM... MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAINS A GOOD FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO FORECAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MORE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS PUMPED INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST. THIS CARVES DEEPER INTO THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO BEGIN TO SAG TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. AS THE ENERGY CARVES INTO THE RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BUILD A BIT ALLOWING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING IN THE CLOUDS TO OUR WEST AND MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR CWA. THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PUSHES IN A MOIST, STABLE MARINE LAYER. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS FORECASTED AND DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUDS ARE IT COULD PLAY HAVOC ON THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MID OR UPPER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN DELMARVA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION AND WASH OUT THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY STILL BE A SOURCE FOR LIFT AND PROVIDE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE CWA WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO. FEEL ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT 0.01 OR LESS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR SOME LOW CLOUD AND/OR FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING IF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AND HIGH RH VALUES. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES 850 MB TEMPS WILL BE FROM 10-12 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD SO FEEL CONFIDENT MOST PLACES WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND OR ABOVE 70 FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS MAY STAY FAIRLY WARM IN THE 50'S. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WHICH WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TEMPS. HELD OFF ON ADDING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND A FRONT TO OUR WEST. THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS MAY BE A TOUCH TOO FAST. REMAINING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR NOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURES BOTH SOUTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON MODEL SOLUTIONS AS TO WHERE SANDY WILL MOVE...WHETHER NORTH TOWARD US OR EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC AFTER CURVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE LATTER SOLUTION WOULD BE BEST FOR US...BUT WITH A FULL MOON OCCURRING ON OCTOBER 29TH...TIDAL ISSUES COULD STILL BE A CONCERN FOR BOTH DELAWARE AND NJ. THE FORMER SOLUTION...WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WOULD BRING A FULL WAGON OF ISSUES TO OUR REGION...INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING...RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING...HIGH WINDS...AND TIDAL FLOODING IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW THE WEATHER GRIDS CONTAIN JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE FORECASTS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. A BRIEFING PACKAGE HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AVAILABLE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI/BRIEFING/PACKAGES/CURRENT_BRIEFING.PDF. THE POSSIBILITY OF SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS ALSO BEEN INCLUDED WITH THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). THIS IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED A LOW PROBABILITY BUT HIGH IMPACT EVENT...SO EVERYONE NEEDS TO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COULD CHANGE AS MOISTURE SLIPPING IN UNDER THE INVERSION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE 1200 UTC. IFR CEILINGS ARE AS CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE... AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A LOW INVERSION BEHIND THE FRONT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT CATCHING THIS SO FAR...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABE AFTER 0900 UTC AS THE LOWER CLOUDS DROP SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...THE PICTURE IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AS NOT YET SHOWING LOWER CLOUDS (BUT THE GEOCAT IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT IS SHOWING SOME IFR CLOUDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY). FOR NOW...THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS WILL HAVE A MAINLY VFR FORECAST THROUGH 1400 UTC...WITH A DECK NEAR 1500 FEET AS AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS. IF THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY EXPAND...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 1000 UTC. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO BREAK AFTER 1400-1500 UTC...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER NEAR KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COME BACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER 0100 UTC THURSDAY. SINCE LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT...IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER THIS TIME FOR MOST PLACES FOR TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS. SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MODEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SURFACE SYSTEMS MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. SUNDAY...SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG. && .MARINE... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE FRONT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS...AND THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE WIND SHIFT. FURTHER SOUTH...WINDS WERE GUSTING NEAR 15 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NEAR TERM MODELS ARE A BIT BEHIND CONCERNING THE FRONTAL POSITION...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL PUSH TO SEND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN IT ALREADY IS. WIND DIRECTION MAY BE TRICKY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE OR E OVER THE NORTHER COASTAL WATERS ONCE THE FRONT SETTLES A BIT TO THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL MOSTLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET AND 1 TO 2 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY. OUTLOOK... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. THERE COULD BE AN INITIAL PUSH OF 15 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY. AFTER THAT...AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE REGION...AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT COULD START TO INCREASE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART TO THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SANDY. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEAR AS THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LIMITS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS COULD VERY LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SANDY WILL DICTATE THESE CONDITIONS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...HAYES/HEAVENER SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...GAINES/MIKETTA AVIATION...HAYES/MIKETTA MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/MIKETTA  FXUS61 KPHI 240812 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 412 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM. PLEASE REFERENCE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ARE MOVING OFFSHORE...BUT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN A LINK OF MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL FRONT HAS BACKED INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE INVERSION LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 1000 FEET DEEP (BASED ON RECENT AMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KPHL)...AND MOISTURE IS STREAMING IN UNDER THE INVERSION. NORTHERN AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE INVERSION THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...AS CLEARING ALLOWED THE NEWLY MINTED BOUNDARY LAYER TO SATURATE AND FORM FOG. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE FOG. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG WILL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS AS A BUFFER. THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD THE FOG BECOME MO9RE EXTENSIVE. SINCE THERE IS SOME MOISTURE LEFT IN THE GREAT LAKES LINK (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.30 INCHES IN THE SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE)... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE NEBULOUS...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY NEED TO BE CARRIED THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY. SHORT MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT (WHICH SHOULD STRETCH FROM DELAWARE THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON). MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW THAT THE INSTABILITY IS SHALLOW AT BEST...AND FOR SOUTHERNMOST AREAS THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR TODAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN JUST HOW MUCH LOW CLOUDINESS CAN FORM ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT FAR AWAY...AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE GEOCAT IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT SHOW STRATUS STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. IN THIS AREA...ANY SUNSHINE LOOKS DOUBTFUL...SO HIGH WERE BASED MAINLY ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS NUMBERS. FURTHER SOUTH...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A KRDG-KPHL-KMJX LINE...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THAT LINE...SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH HIGH CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 12 CELSIUS COULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WITH FULL SUN. SINCE FULL SUN LOOKS UNLIKELY...HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MOS BLEND LOOKS OK...SINCE THE COLUMN IS WARM TO BEGIN WITH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHER AREAS AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIPPLE THROUGH THE RISING MID LEVEL FLOW...MOST PLACES SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE STRATUS SHOULD FORM IN PLACE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPREAD OUT TO JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS (EXCEPT PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THE 0000 UTC GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...BUT EVENTUALLY SATURATES THE TOP OF THE INVERSION FOR STRATUS. BASED ON THE ABOVE...ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH SHOULD BECOME CLOUDY. THE NEXT PROBLEM IS FOG AND DRIZZLE. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY...WHERE THE FLOW IS MODESTLY UPSLOPE. ELSEWHERE...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR...BUT DENSITY IS IN QUESTION. THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS COULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AND INDUCE DENSER FOG TO FORM. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF FOG...BUT NOT HIT IT TOO HARD. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT...SYNOPTICALLY...HAVING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS A FAVORED PATTERN FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE REASSESSED BY LATER SHIFTS. THE LATER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS BY THE 0000 UTC GFS ALLOWS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES. SINCE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE THE GFS TIMING...LOWS WERE BASED MORE ON A MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... TO START THE LONG TERM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES DOWN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARDS. WITH MAINLY LIGHT EAST WINDS OFF OF THE ATLANTIC, A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB MODEL TEMPS STILL YIELD MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH THE LIGHT EAST FLOW, THE GFS AND EURO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIP/DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING FRIDAY, AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED. SKY COVER WAS INCREASED IN THIS TIMEFRAME AS MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TOWARD INCREASING LOW CLOUDS. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND ALSO THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK OF SANDY, BUT SOME GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO SHOWING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. STILL, OTHER MODEL DATA RECURVES SANDY MORE SHARPLY AND TAKES THE SYSTEM MORE EAST AND OUT TO SEA. IN COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WITH THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD, WE HAVE MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED FCST. AS MODEL SOLUTIONS COME TO CLOSER AGREEMENT, ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE TO THIS TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, THE INTERACTION OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND THE TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, AND COASTAL FLOODING. AS THIS IS A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COULD CHANGE AS MOISTURE SLIPPING IN UNDER THE INVERSION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS BEFORE 1200 UTC. IFR CEILINGS ARE AS CLOSE AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE... AS MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A LOW INVERSION BEHIND THE FRONT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT CATCHING THIS SO FAR...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABE AFTER 0900 UTC AS THE LOWER CLOUDS DROP SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...THE PICTURE IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AS NOT YET SHOWING LOWER CLOUDS (BUT THE GEOCAT IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT IS SHOWING SOME IFR CLOUDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY). FOR NOW...THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS WILL HAVE A MAINLY VFR FORECAST THROUGH 1400 UTC...WITH A DECK NEAR 1500 FEET AS AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS. IF THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY EXPAND...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 1000 UTC. LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO BREAK AFTER 1400-1500 UTC...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS MAY LINGER NEAR KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COME BACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER 0100 UTC THURSDAY. SINCE LOWER CLOUDS ARE PRESENT...IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER THIS TIME FOR MOST PLACES FOR TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...MVF CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLDS TO START THE DAY, THEN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, A MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE FOG IN THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. SATURDAY...FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AS THERE IS MUCH MODEL SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS. SUNDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE WATER THIS MORNING WILL EITHER CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA...OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE. THE NET EFFECT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A WIND DIRECTION SHIFT...WITH ONLY THE SOUTHERNMOST OCEAN WATERS NOT SEEING THE SHIFT DURING THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM QUEBEC...THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WINDS SPEEDS AS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS TODAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN THE COAST FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WINDS WILL SNAP TO THE SYNOPTIC WIND DIRECTION (NORTH NORTHEAST). THE GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN ENOUGH LATE THIS EVENING TO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING FETCH...SO WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LIMITS TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... OVERALL, GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WATERS IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SCA CRITERIA. MARINE FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDY AND ALSO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF SANDY, AND A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO WINDS INCREASING AS WELL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...HAYES SHORT TERM...HAYES LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...HAYES/KLINE MARINE...HAYES/KLINE  FXUS61 KPHI 250356 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1156 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CANADA WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND AFFECT THE WEATHER FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE STRATUS HAS EXPANDED TO COVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA (PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE ARE NOT YET IN IT). THE STRATUS/NO STATUS LINE APPEARS TO BE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH STRETCHES FROM EASTERN MARYLAND INTO NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE GEOCAT SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND (AS CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS). THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS TO ERODE ON THE EASTERN EDGE...AND THIS COULD BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS NOT CORROBORATED BY THE 0000 UTC KOKX SOUNDING...WHICH IS MOIST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION. IN ANY EVENT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING ALMOST SATURATED BY THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. THE STRATUS IN PLACE VERY WELL COULD KEEP DENSE FOG AT BAY. IN ADDITION...THE EAST NORTHEAST FLOW THAT MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX THE LAYER FROM TIME TO TIME. SO FOR NOW...THE FOG POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE INCREASED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE FOLLOWED. THE SAME MOISTURE LINK FROM THE THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THAT FUELED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT IS STILL IN PLACE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ANY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD EVENTUALLY END THE SHOWER TRAIN...BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE SUNRISE. THE FOG AND DRIZZLE WAS RETAINED WHERE IT WAS IN PLACE EARLIER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING, WE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURE RISES, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM CONTINUITY AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND. THE MODELS ALSO BACKED AWAY FROM ANY SHOWERS, THE GFS HAS MORE OF A BANKED AGAINST HIER TERRAIN DRIZZLE LOOK TO ITS OUTPUT. WE GRADUALLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AS THURSDAY PROGRESSES, NOT CONFIDENT AS TO HOW MUCH SUN THOUGH WE WILL SEE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED SOUTH THAN NORTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM MAY AFFECT OUR AREA IN THE SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME FRAME. A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT MAY TEND TO PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER, LEADING TO A CLEARING SKY AND DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT ARRIVES ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT MOISTURE SHOULD COLLECT ALONG IT AND ONLY BE INCREASED AS LOW PRESSURE /HURRICANE SANDY/ MOVES NORTHWARD. IT THEN STARTS TO GET INTERESTING OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SANDY WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO A POTENTIALLY VERY POWERFUL COASTAL STORM OR HYBRID LOW. THIS IS A RESULT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT AMPLIFIES QUITE A BIT FROM THE WEST AND ADDS BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO SANDY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING HOWEVER OF THIS INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SANDY'S NORTHWARD MOTION WILL BE CRUCIAL IN THE OVERALL DETAILS. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION AND ALSO THE SCOPE OF THE BLOCKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A RATHER POTENT STORM FOR OUR AREA, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS FARTHER EAST. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE ONE WHICH IS TYPICALLY THE CASE DURING A TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO HYBRID. THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY ADDED TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD COULD VERY WELL BE QUITE A BIT, WHICH IS WHY MANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TOWARD A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW. IT APPEARS THERE ARE TWO MODEL CAMPS, ONE WHICH PHASES THE SYSTEMS TOGETHER RESULTING IN THE STORM BEING PULLING CLOSER OR ONTO THE COAST; AND THE SECOND IS LESS/LATE OR NO PHASE ALLOWING THE STORM TO TRACK MUCH FARTHER EAST. IN ADDITION IF THE STORM ENDS UP TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST WILL PROBABLY SLOW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH SANDY BECOMING A MORE BAROCLINIC LOW WOULD INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE AND ADD TO THE RAINFALL PARTICULARLY FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM TO IMPACT OUR AREA, IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE STORM. THIS WILL DETERMINE WHAT THE DETAILS ARE FOR OUR CWA, HOWEVER EVERYONE NEEDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS/FORECASTS WITH THIS POTENTIAL STORM. DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, SPECIAL 06Z AND 18Z SOUNDINGS WILL BE CONDUCTED BEGINNING AT 18Z THURSDAY, OCT 25TH. HOPEFULLY THIS EXTRA DATA WILL HELP SETTLE THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTO A CONSENSUS. OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWO/ CONTINUES TO MENTION THIS POSSIBLE STORM, HOWEVER STRESSING THE UNCERTAINTY AS WELL. THE INCOMING COLD FRONT/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ENERGY FROM SANDY SHOULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIND BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW, THE POPS LEANED TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE AND FOR SATURDAY ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC RANGE. THESE POPS THEN INCREASE INTO THE HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY RANGE FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A LOW LEVEL INVERSION HAS SETUP ACROSS A MAJORITY OF OUR TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD. THE TERMINALS THAT CURRENTLY HAVE AN EAST WIND COMPONENT ARE ALREADY OR WILL SOON BE EXPERIENCING MVFR/IFR STRATUS SPREADING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD GET INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS ANY FOG/DRIZZLE FORMATION BENEATH THE STRATUS TONIGHT. MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING'S ISSUES WITH FOG AND HAZE WE COULD SIMILARLY SEE THE SAME KIND PROBLEMS THURSDAY MORNING BUT ACROSS A MUCH BROADER AREA. DID NOT HIT THE FOG/BR TOO HARD TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONDITIONS APPEARED TO WARRANT A TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBYS IN SOME SPOTS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST THAN IS CURRENTLY RUNNING. THOUGH WE GET A BIT MORE WIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SOME MIXING DOES TAKE PLACE SO THE IFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING OR SHORTLY AFTER NOON. THINK THAT WITH THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW WE WILL KEEP CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. PROBABLY WILL HAVE MUCH IN THE SAME TOMORROW NIGHT THAT WE DO THIS EVENING WITH MORE STRATUS SPREADING INLAND BY LATE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEEPENS AND LOWERS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT...POOR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE. FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VFR. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SUN THRU MONDAY...LOW CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAINS AND INCREASING WINDS. && .MARINE... THERE ARE NO FLAGS IN THE SHORT TERM, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. THE BIGGEST MARITIME ISSUE MIGHT BE FOG LATER TONIGHT. AT LEAST FROM A STARTING POINT THE AIR TEMPS ARE LOWER THAN THE WATER TEMPS WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR THURSDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. OUTLOOK... SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. GALES AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS BEGINNING SUNDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O'HARA NEAR TERM...HAYES/HEAVENER SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...GORSE/O'HARA AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER MARINE...GIGI  FXUS61 KPHI 260744 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS NORTHWARD TODAY WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER AT THAT TIME. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST TRACK UPDATES WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE STRATUS SHEET CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES ON THE EAST NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD PUT A TEMPORARY HALT OT THE EROSION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PER DAWN HOURS. BASED ON THIS ASSUMPTION...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD SKIES AT SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE RETAINED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA STILL UNDER THE STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED FOR FOG. THE GEOCAT SATELLITE PRODUCT IS SHOWING INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED. PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE THE RATE OF CLEARING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST...AND MOST PLACES SHOULD BREAK IN THE INVERSION IN PLACE BY NOON OR SO. THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY AS THE OUTFLOW FROM SANDY DRIFTS NORTH ABOVE THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL RIDGE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER FULL SUN. CONSIDERING IT IS LATE OCTOBER...THESE NUMBERS LOOK OUT OF REACH...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING LOOKS HIGHER THAN THURSDAY... AND WITH THIS IN MIND HIGHS WERE BASED ON A MOS BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION IN PLACE WILL ERODE BY EVENING...BUT COULD REESTABLISH ITSELF WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW STILL IN PLACE. WHILE THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THURSDAY. IN THE TIME BETWEEN THE COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES... AND ARRIVAL OF HIGHS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS LATER TONIGHT (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH)...FOG COULD FORM. PATCHY FOG WILL BE PLACED INTO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. IF THE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARRIVES LATER THAN IT APPEARS IT WILL NOW...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. WE WILL FORGO THIS OPTION EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWS WERE BASED MAINLY ON A MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN CENTERED AROUND HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON OUR REGION. ON SATURDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST, BUT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE WEEKEND AS SANDY MOVES NORTHWARD. AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, IT WILL LIKELY DRAW SOME MOISTURE FROM SANDY AND ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT COULD HELP ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS, INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO HURRICANE SANDY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM. THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH THE MOST SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE STORM TAKING IT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, WHILE THE CANADIAN TRACK THE STORM WELL NORTH INTO MAINE. THE GFS IS BETWEEN THE TWO MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK KEEPS CONTINUITY AND HAS SANDY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR DELAWARE BAY/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS WE HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WE ALSO MAINTAIN A LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EVEN WITH THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL GIVE OUR AREA A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, RANGING FROM HEAVY RAINS, TO STRONG WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST TRACK UPDATES WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. AFTER SANDY MAKES LANDFALL, THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND/SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TROUGHING ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO, OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL ALSO REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS SHEET OVER THE REGION IS FRAYING ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EDGES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KACY AND POSSIBLY KMIV WILL BECOME VFR WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE 0900 UTC. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW MVFR VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP IN PATCHY FOG. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH ABOUT 1400 UTC). IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KPHL COULD SEE A LAYER NEAR 600 FEET BETWEEN 1000 UTC AND 1400 UTC...BUT FOR NOW THE POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. BETWEEN 1400 AND 1700 UTC...ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION EASES. HOWEVER...A SCATTERED DECK NEAR 2500 FEET PROBABLY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO HAVE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING LESS THAN 8 KNOTS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD START OUT VFR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTURE POOLING UNDER THE INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AFTER 0300 UTC SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE. SUNDAY-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WIND. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OCEAN WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR SEAS. THE GRADIENT AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS IS BRINGING WIND DIRECTIONS OVER THE WATERS BACK TO EAST AND NORTHEAST. FOR THE MOST PART...WINDS SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SEAS ARE LOCALLY WIND DRIVEN...AND REMAINS 3 FEET OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND SANDY WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS PROBABLY MEANS WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORT PERIOD LOCALLY DRIVE WIND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT COULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS BEFORE 1200 UTC SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE LONG PERIOD SWELL ARRIVES BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ALL BUT ANZ450 AND ANZ451 SHOULD SEE THE LONG PERIOD 5 FOOT SEAS BEFORE 1200 UTC SATURDAY. BASED ON THE ABOVE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR ANZ452>ANZ455 FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE WATERS AS SEAS AND WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF HURRICANE SANDY. HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS THE STORM MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW JERSEY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY PEAK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE STORM APPROACHES. AT LEAST GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 FEET. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM SANDY APPROACHES THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TIDAL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. THE FULL MOON IS NEXT MONDAY, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FULL MOON AND HIGH TIDAL SURGE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INCREASE COASTAL FLOODING PROBABILITIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...HAYES SHORT TERM...HAYES LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...HAYES/ROBERTSON MARINE...HAYES/ROBERTSON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  FXUS61 KPHI 150519 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1219 AM EST THU NOV 15 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL TEND TO HOLD GROUND THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING MORE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND, WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS OF NOW, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACTS MAINLY FROM THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS DELAWARE AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE CLOUDS ARE A RESULT OF MOISTURE SPREADING OUT UNDER AN INVERSION (DEPICTED WELL BY THE 0000 UTC KWAL SOUNDING). THE LOW CLOUD IMAGE IS BECOMING OBSCURED BY THE HIGHER CLOUDS ABOVE IT...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE DELMARVA. IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...SO THE SKY COVER WAS INCREASED HERE. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER...AND LOWS APPEAR TO BE IN LINE WITH TRENDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A SYNOPTIC NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTH WILL SEND SOME UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...SO SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY...WITH MOSTLY MID OR UPPER 40S NORTH/WEST AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH/EAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING AMPLIFICATION AS WE GO THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS MAINLY TIED TO A BROAD TROUGH BECOMING CLOSED OFF AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER, IT LOOKS TO COME DOWN TO A BATTLE BETWEEN A PERSISTENT STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY IN THE SOUTH LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS. THERE SEEMS TO BE A BUILDING CONSENSUS THAT THE SURFACE LOW, WHILE IT DEVELOPS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS A DEEPENING LOW FARTHER OFF THE COAST AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE IMPACTS EAST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WOULD SET UP A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME IMPACTS PARTICULARLY FOR OUR COASTAL LOCALES AND THE MARINE. WE GENERALLY USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN HPC/CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. HPC FAVORED A BLEND OF THE UKMET/ECMWF THROUGH SUNDAY THEN AN INCREASING INCORPORATION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM MONDAY ONWARD. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, A WELL DEVELOPED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO BE OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE AS SHORT WAVES ACTS UPON THE THERMAL GRADIENT. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES MIGRATES TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT TIGHT. A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS LOOKS DRY ENOUGH ALONG WITH WANING LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. OTHER THAN SOME INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, A FAIRLY TRANQUIL TIME FRAME IS ANTICIPATED. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A CLOSED LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS FEATURE MAY END UP BEING A SLOW MOVER AS IT GETS NEARLY TRAPPED DUE TO RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO START OUT TRANQUIL, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOME ESPECIALLY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE ONSHORE FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE THE MOISTURE SOME. THERE MAY BE A SHARPENING GRADIENT IN ANY DEVELOPING LOWER CLOUD COVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH HAS AND THE RESULTING DRIER AIR. THE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST LOOKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH FOR AWHILE. GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING AS THE MOISTURE ADVECTION GETS SQUEEZED WITH A NORTHWARD EXTENT. AS A RESULT, WE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE MENTIONABLE POPS WITH A FOCUS MORE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. OUR POPS ARE NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHC. WHILE OUR MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM WELL TO OUR SOUTH, WE HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE WITH THE ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN UP AS WE GO THROUGH SUNDAY ESPECIALLY, THEREFORE WE LEANED TOWARD BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SHOW SOME MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS BENEATH AN INVERSION. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME DRIZZLE WITH TIME. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM. GIVEN THE CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL FEATURE AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A SLOW MOVER. IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FAVORS A FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES BY OUR LATITUDE. HOWEVER GIVEN THE PERSISTENT HIGH TO ITS NORTH, WE DID NOT WANT TO THROTTLE BACK ON THE POPS AT THIS POINT. WE LEANED TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FAR TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EITHER WAY, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW LOOKS TO RESULT WITH LINGERING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WOULD FOCUS ANY AFFECTS ON THE COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION AS BUILDING WAVES GET PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST /SEE TIDE SECTION BELOW/. WE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO INDICATE GUSTY WINDS MOSTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDING PRECIPITATION, A TOUGHER CALL ON THE WRAP AROUND/DEFORMATION AREA AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION BACKING INTO PARTS OF AREA NOT UNTIL MONDAY. EVEN THIS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER EAST, WITH LESS WRAP AROUND INTO OUR AREA. ATTM, WE CARRIED LOW POPS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA, THEN TAPERED THEM DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY, A CLOSED LOW SHOULD BE GENERALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL TAKE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL ENERGY DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHENING THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS THE CHC THAT SOME MOISTURE GETS PULLED TOWARD THE COAST AS THIS EVOLVES, THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO FAVOR THE MOISTURE OFFSHORE CLOSER TO A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. FOR NOW, WE WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME BORDERING SLIGHT CHC VALUES. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING LIES ACROSS DELAWARE AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW JERSEY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IS MANIFESTING ITSELF AS VFR CEILINGS AT KMIV AND KRDG. THE GEOCAT IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT IS SHOWING SOME IFR POTENTIAL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...BUT BASED ON TEMPERATURES...THE LOWER CLOUD DECK SHOULD ONLY BE MVFR. IF FACT...THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KACY AND KMIV THROUGH ABOUT 1500 UTC OR SO. ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH 1500 UTC...WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS THEREAFTER. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 KNOTS TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR KACY. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MVFR CLOUDINESS COULD REDEVELOP NEAR KACY AFTER 0000 UTC...AND LAST MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...WE WILL ESCHEW THIS OPTION AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR EVERYWHERE. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR TO START, THEN MVFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON FROM THE KPHL METRO SOUTH AND EAST. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MONDAY, HOWEVER THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE DUE TO A WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM. IT IS POSSIBLE MVFR COULD REACH AS FAR AS KRDG AND KABE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KNOTS, HOWEVER THESE COULD BE STRONGER/GUSTY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .MARINE... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE EAST OF 70W WILL KEEP A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS ON THE OCEAN WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. THE GRADIENT DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...BUT THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN UP OVER 5FT MOSTLY. THE SCA FLAG FOR THE OCEAN WILL REMAIN UP AS IS. ON DEL BAY...WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AND SEAS CHOPPY BU UNDER SCA CRITERIA. A FEW 5FT SEAS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY. WE WILL PASS ON ANY SCA FOR THE LOWER BAY ATTM. THE UPCOMING FCSTS CAN DETERMINE IF THE SCA FLAG WILL COME DOWN SOONER THAN 6PM THU. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THU ON THE WATERS. OUTLOOK... A WEAKEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HOWEVER THIS IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE MAIN SETUP IS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL WORK WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. THE OVERALL GUIDANCE POINTING TO THIS STORM TRACKING WELL EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF THIS NORTHEASTWARD TRACKING STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS. PRIOR TO THIS HOWEVER, THE SEAS MAY COME DOWN SOME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND WINDS REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SEAS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH MAY THEREFORE BE UNDER 5 FEET FOR A TIME, THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATTM. THIS MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY LAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL, ALTHOUGH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE A BUILDING OF THE SEAS WITH TIME, AND A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE WINDS AS THE GFS IS STRONGER WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE STRONGER WINDS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. GIVEN THE FETCH AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GFS 925 MB WINDS INDICATE LOW-END GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. EITHER WAY, THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE 7 TO 10 FOOT RANGE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE OCEAN AND THE TIMING OF THE RECENT NEW MOON WILL CRETE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ON THE OCEAN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WATER LEVELS WILL BE NEAR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS THURSDAY MORNING ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER DEL BAY. THE DBOFS HAS LEVELS LOWER THAN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE SITE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LEVELS TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND INTO NEXT WEEK, COURTESY OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, WILL HELP TO KEEP THE TIDAL DEPARTURES ELEVATED. WE ARE PASSED THE NEW MOON NOW, THEREFORE AFTER THE EARLIER THURSDAY HIGH TIDE, THE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES ARE LOWERING. GIVEN THIS AND DESPITE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ALL TIDE LOCATIONS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BEYOND THIS, THE TIDES WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM. THIS STORM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING FARTHER EASTWARD, HOWEVER BUILDING SEAS TOWARD THE COAST COULD ADD TO THE TIDAL DEPARTURES DESPITE LOWERING ASTRONOMICAL VALUES. A MENTION CONTINUES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWO/. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O'HARA SHORT TERM...HAYES LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GORSE/HAYES MARINE...GORSE/O'HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  FXUS61 KPHI 170852 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 AM EST SAT NOV 17 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS THEN FORECAST TO RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD RESULT IN A CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REASON. THE ONLY PROBLEM COULD BE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DUE TO CLOUDS FROM THE OCEAN. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THE REESTABLISHMENT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST GRADIENT... ALBEIT FAIRLY LIGHT...HAS SEEMED TO HAVE HALTED THE PLUMMET. TEMPERATURES PROBABLY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST PLACES THROUGH SUNRISE. IT APPEARS THAT ANY OF THE LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND NEW YORK STATE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE OUT OF REACH IN THE DRY AIRMASS...MOST PLACES SHOULD SEE SUNNY SKIES. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE EXCEPTION TO THIS COULD BE PORTIONS OF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE LOW CLOUD PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS THE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE OCEAN...STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND. THUS FAR...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HAS HEADED SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MAY PRESENT THE PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE GEOCAT PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT THESE CLOUDS ARE LOW (UNDER 1000 FEET)...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KACY SUGGEST THE DECK RISES WITH HEATING. STILL...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE WOULD SEE SOME OF THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW... THE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE HIT TOO HARD...BUT ENOUGH FOR A PARTLY SUNNY DAY. THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES AROUND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIND TODAY THAN FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TODAY WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND...AND DROPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS IS DUE MAINLY TO THE SHALLOWER THAN NORMAL MIXED LAYER IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. THE LOWER MIXED LAYER DEPTH MEANS LESS TURBULENT MIXING...AND LOWER TEMPERATURES. THIS STRATEGY HAS WORKED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT SEEM AS BULLISH FOR STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FOR THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS FOR TONIGHT (AFTER THE EARLY EVENING HOURS). BASED ON THIS...SKIES WILL BE KEPT AT PARTLY CLOUDY. ELSEWHERE...THERE COULD BE SOME JET CIRRUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR IN ANY EVENT. THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FRIDAY EVENING LIKE TEMPERATURE PLUNGE IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. BECAUSE OF THE GRADIENT...LOWS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND...AND EDGED DOWN IN THE PROTECTED LOCATIONS...LIKE THE NEW JERSEY PINE BARRENS. IN URBAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST...WHERE THE WIND REMAINS UP LONGER...LOWS WERE BASED MORE ON THE MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION OFF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF. THE EXITING SOUTHEAST 500MB TROF LOOKS WELL HANDLED. BEYOND THIS, THE MODELING IDEA OF A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SE COAST AND THEN EITHER WAITING FOR ENERGY YET TO ENTER NORTH AMERICA OR ANOTHER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE MID WEEK PERIOD HAS NOT CHANGED. THE CAN GGEM WAS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE EAST AND THE OUTLOOKED NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IS STILL PROGRESSIVE FOR THIS WEEK. THIS ALSO PUTS INTO QUESTION SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SHOWING HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TUE INTO THU. SO UNTIL THAT CHANGES OR THERE IS FURTHER CORROBORATION FROM MORE THAN ONE OP MODEL, WE ARE GOING DRY THRU THANKSGIVING WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS FOR THE PARTICULARS: STILL SEE A SPLIT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS TRAPPING MORE MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION THAN THE REGIONAL MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE LATTER HAVE HIGHER INVERSION LEVELS AND THUS MORE MIXING, LESS CLOUDS. I THINK MY COLLEGE PROFESSOR WOULD YELL AT ME (EVEN IF ITS 4 IN THE MORNING) AT HAVING A SUNNY FORECAST WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. SO WE WILL OPT FOR THE CLOUDIER GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EMPHASIS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA. CONVERSELY, THE MOISTURE LAYER LOOKS THIN. TOO THIN TO GENERATE MEASURABLE PCPN. THINK THE GFS GIVING UP ON MEASURABLE OVER LAND IS THE RIGHT WAY TO GO. IN TANDEM WITH GOING WITH THE CLOUDIER FCST SOUTHEAST, MAX TEMPS WERE CLOSER TO GFS MOS THAN NAM MOS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN AVERAGE AS THE EXTENT OF CLOUDS SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY AN INVERSION BUSTING BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CHIP AWAY AT OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE. WE DID LEAN COLDER NORTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR CWA AS THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD BE CLEARER. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY ON MONDAY ACROSS OUR CWA WITH AN OCEANIC TRAJECTORY SOUTH AND THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA, MAX TEMPS AGAIN LEANED THE GFS MOS WAY AND WE TRIED TO NOT HAVE MANY ABOVE THE PRESENT OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ENERGIZING TROF (ONE THAT IS SET TO DEEPEN THE OFFSHORE LOW) AS WELL AS SOME MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE PREVIOUS CLOSING LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR CWA. THE GFS DEVELOPS A COUPLE OF SHOWERS JUST WEST OF OUR CWA ON TUESDAY DAY IN A RELATIVE INSTABILITY AXIS, BETTER SAID LESS STABLE AXIS. THE TIMING IS OFF BETWEEN MOISTURE AND ENERGY, THUS NO POPS. TEMPS WE WENT THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WHILE THERE IS MODEL AGREEMENT AS TO THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF A DEEPENING TROF, THE CONSENSUS FOR NOW IS ITS A DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT FOR PRECIPITATION TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. WE OPTED TO CLEAN THE SLATE. MAX TEMPS WERE EDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY IN TANDEM WITH THE LATEST STAT GUIDANCE. IF WE CAN HAVE LESS OF AN ONSHORE FLOW, THIS AIR MASS IS NOT A CHILLY ONE AND SOME 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON WED AND THANKSGIVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FALL LINE. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME TOWARD US. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW (GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS). WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE KACY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DECK DEVELOPING NEAR 3000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THUS FAR...MOST OF THE LOWER MOISTURE IS FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THERE IS SOME STRATOCUMULUS EAST OF THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST...BUT THIS MOISTURE IS STILL FAR ENOUGH AWAY NOT TO IMPACT THE ARE THIS MORNING. SINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL IMPACT KACY...VFR CEILINGS WERE CONTINUED TODAY. THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST BY ABOUT 1400 UTC...AND AVERAGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AGAIN...THE EXCEPTION MAY BE KACY. FOR NOW...WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OFF THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...BUT FOR NOW KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT KACY. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN AROUND 5 OR 6 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS (AS WELL AS KACY). SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY MVFR TOWARD THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS GUST AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE COAST. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. && .MARINE... THE FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SEAS ON THE OCEAN AND WHEN THEY MAY COME DOWN (PROBABLY NOT ANYTIME SOON). THE GRADIENT FLOW IS SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS JUST UNDER SMALL CRAFT LIMITS ACROSS THE OCEAN EARLY THIS MORNING. OVER DELAWARE BAY...THE GRADIENT FLOW IS EVEN LIGHTER...WITH GUSTS REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE FETCH THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MOSTLY SUB SMALL CRAFT FLOW IS KEEPING SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OCEAN WATERS. WHILE 44065 HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 3.8 AND 4.3 FEET... THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT SEAS. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD BEEF UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH ORGANIZES ITSELF OVER QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SMALL INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS BACK TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD ONLY ENHANCE THE EAST NORTHEAST SWELL THAT IS IN PLACE. PERIODS NEAR 11 SECONDS SUGGEST THAT THE SWELL PROBABLY DOES NOT BACK DOWN...AND BECOMES ENHANCED BY LOCAL WIND WAVES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SEAS PROBABLY BUILD A BIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO THE SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN PLACE. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD PEAK DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS PROBABLY BETWEEN 0300 UTC AND 0900 UTC SUNDAY...THEN START TO BACK OFF. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF EASTERLY FLOW AT 925 MB. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER MAY BE TOO LOW TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WIND. THE GRADIENT FLOW DURING THIS TIME MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AS WELL. SEAS PROBABLY EDGE UP IN THE FLOW...AND FOR THAT REASON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1100 UTC SUNDAY. OUTLOOK... ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY, WE WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SLIGHT RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT BEFORE IT INCREASES AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS PART OF THE BAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TEETERING ON THE EDGE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. AS FOR THE OCEAN, THE LEAST CONFIDENCE ABOUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ZONE 450 FROM MANASQUAN NORTHWARD. THIS AREA WILL BE NEAR THE EDGE FOR BOTH THE NEEDED WIND AND SEA CRITERIA. CONVERSELY, CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OCEAN. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE AFOREMENTIONED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. FURTHER EXTENSIONS ARE LIKELY AS THERE IS NO BIG CHANGE OUTLOOKED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ADDED KICK FROM SWELLS AND POSSIBLY ALSO WINDS SHOULD COME IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN THE OFFSHORE LOW INTENSIFIES FURTHER. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... TIDE DEPARTURES ON THE OCEAN FRONT WERE RUNNING BETWEEN ONE-HALF AND THREE-QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE DEPARTURES OCCURRED JUST AFTER HIGH TIDE...SO WE PROBABLY NEED TO SEE WHERE THE DEPARTURES ARE AFTER WE GET INTO THE LOW TIDE CYCLE. IF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE TIDE DEPARTURES WHERE TO REMAIN STEADY INTO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATER THIS MORNING...WE WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARK ON THE OCEAN FRONT. THE CONSENSUS OF TIDE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF THE BENCHMARK (SINCE WOULD WE NEED DEPARTURES CLOSER TO A FOOT THIS MORNING). FOR NOW...NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED...PENDING THE DEPARTURES VALUES AFTER LOW TIDE. IF IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY BE CLOSE A A FOOT ABOVE DURING THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES...THEN HEADLINES COULD BECOME NECESSARY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI NEAR TERM...HAYES SHORT TERM...HAYES LONG TERM...GIGI AVIATION...AMC/GIGI/HAYES MARINE...GIGI/HAYES TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAYES  FXUS61 KPHI 180528 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1228 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS THEN FORECAST TO RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WAS MINOR HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT CHANGES, AND WE HAVE BUMPED UP SKY GRIDS AS A SWATH OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT WE WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE A BIT STRONGER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR OVERNIGHT. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR LOWS AND USED A BIT OF CONTINUITY TOO. YIELDED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-30S ACROSS A BROAD AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING THE DEW POINTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW JERSEY (WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS A MARINE INFLUENCE). IN FACT...PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY TRYING TO FORM IN THESE AREAS. BASED ON THE ABOVE...PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...HIGHER CLOUDS. THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE UNDER THE PREDOMINANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SINKING AIR, DUE TO THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH, IS HELPING TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES RATHER MODERATE. SUNDAYS HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE SAME AS SATURDAY OR MAYBE A TAD WARMER. NONE-THE-LESS STILL LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. COULD HAVE THE SAME ISSUE TOMORROW THAT WE DID TODAY IN TERMS OF STRATOCU FORMING JUST OFFSHORE IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA. THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY TURN MORE EASTERLY BY LATER IN THE DAY AND WILL ONLY HELP TO ADVECT THIS LOW MOISTURE ONSHORE. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT A NICE FALL DAY. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST LATER MONDAY AND SLOWLY ORGANIZE WELL OFF THE COAST DURING THE WEEK. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO NOT CREATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THIS WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT OR LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WED-THU. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS MAY BE GUSTY OVER THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS TUE-THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. A UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER NEXT THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT AND A DRY FCST HAS BEEN WRITTEN FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE 12Z/EC IS SHOWING ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH NEXT SAT SO SMALL CHC POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING THE DEW POINTS WHERE WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF...AND PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN PLACES LIKE KRDG AND KMIV. FOR NOW...THIS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE NEW FORECASTS WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED FOR MVFR FOG. THE LOW CLOUD IMAGE AND GEOCAT IFR PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST OF KACK TO NEAR KWAL. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR KACY AND KMIV LATER TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 9 AND 13 KNOTS. FOR KMIV AND KACY...THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN COULD AFFECT KACY AROUND 1800 UTC AND KMIV CLOSER TO 2000 UTC. BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH...MVFR CEILINGS NEAR 2500 FEET ARE EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE MARINE INVERSION COULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE DELAWARE RIVER. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KILG TO KTTN...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET. FOR NOW...A SCATTERED DECK AT THAT LEVEL WAS INDICATED...AND THE POTENTIAL WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 1200 UTC FORECASTS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. BOTH KACY AND KMIV...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 0600 UTC MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE INVERSION EASES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT...BUT THAT COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH NO DRY AIR TO INFUSE INTO THE AREA. OUTLOOK... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS. TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... CONTINUE TO HAVE SMALL CRAFT ACROSS OUR WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY LOOKS AS THOUGH THE GUSTS TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER AND SHOULD DROP OFF BY TOMORROW LATE MORNING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 6-7 DOWN SOUTH AND A LITTLE LESS ACROSS THE NORTH. KEPT THE CURRENT 23Z SUNDAY END TIME AS IS SINCE ACROSS THE NORTH IT LOOKS MORE MARGINAL. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COMBINED WITH THE MASSIVE HIGH TO OUR NORTH KEEPS THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW QUITE ROBUST. DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THE NORTHEAST FLOW RELINQUISHING ANYTIME SOON. OUTLOOK... SCA FLAG WAS NOT EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOR NOW. MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING WELL OFFSHORE WILL PROBABLY BRING ANOTHER LONG PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS (MOSTLY SEAS) LATER MON INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... DEPARTURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN HALF A FOOT AND A FOOT UNDER THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW. TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE LOOKS TO BE OUT OF REACH EVERYWHERE SINCE IT IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TIDE OF ANY CONCERN WOULD BE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE GOOD THING IS THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RECEDING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT DEPARTURES WE WOULD FALL SHORT. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION BUT THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES LOOKS UNLIKELY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O'HARA NEAR TERM...HAYES/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...O'HARA AVIATION...HAYES/O'HARA MARINE...HEAVENER/O'HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  FXUS61 KPHI 180856 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 356 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS THEN FORECAST TO RETURN WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...WILL BE CLOUDINESS. JET INDUCED CIRRUS HAS EXTENDED INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOWER CLOUDS RECEDED FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD IMAGES AND GEOCAT IFR PRODUCT SHOW THAT THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REMAINS OUT OVER THE OCEAN...STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER DELMARVA PENINSULA TO EAST OF NANTUCKET ISLAND. THE HIGH CLOUDINESS HALTED THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING COOLING (AS IT DID FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING). IN FACT...SO PLACES HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT DUE TO THE CIRRUS CANOPY. IN ADDITION...THE NASCENT FOG PATCHES THAT WERE FORMING LATE LAST EVENING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALL BUT DRIED UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THE JET CIRRUS CANOPY PROBABLY GETS AS FAR NORTH AS IT WILL THIS MORNING...PEAK IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST PLACES...THE CIRRUS IS AS MUCH CLOUDINESS AS THEY WILL SEE...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL OUT OF REACH IN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINING HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE LOWER CLOUDINESS GETS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 0000 UTC SOUNDINGS FROM KCHH AND KWAL SHOWED THE INVERSION NEAR 3500 FEET...AND THIS IS PROBABLY A GOOD STARTING POINT FOR CLOUD HEIGHT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE CLOUD DECK OFFSHORE GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE SPREADING OUT UNDER THE INVERSION CLOSER TO SHORE SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP CLOUDINESS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDINESS ARRIVES IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. RIGHT NOW...THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT LOOK GOOD...AS THIS WAS THE TIMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER MAT GET A BIT FURTHER INLAND THAN SATURDAY AS WELL...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION FURTHER INLAND. THE 0000 UTC GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE OCEANFRONT IN DELAWARE. AT THIS POINT...WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER BEING AS HIGH AS IT IS...THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE HERE LOOKS LIMITED. FOR NOW...DRIZZLE WILL NOT BE INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MODELED MORE OR LESS ON HIGHS ON SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THIS IS ACTUALLY A BIT ABOVE THE MOS BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... ONCE AGAIN...THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUDINESS. THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THE LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...AND SOUTH OF KILG IN DELAWARE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS PEAK IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING...THEN TEND TO DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO MIX...BUT EVENING IS USUALLY NOT THE TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. BASED ON THE ABOVE...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA A BIT LONGER. THIS WILL IMPACT LOW TEMPERATURES...AS THE THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER KEEPS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HIGHER. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY JUST JET CIRRUS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...AS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS...LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MOS BLEND. FOR PROTECTED AREAS...WHERE THE LIGHT NORTHEAST GRADIENT IS NOT AS DISRUPTIVE...LOWS WERE EDGED DOWN A BIT BELOW MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELING CONSENSUS IS COMING CLOSER TOWARD THE FARTHER OFFSHORE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION OF THE SERN COASTAL LOW. IN TURN NO LAND BASED IMPACT ON OUR CWA IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN THE LONG TERM. THE GFS HAS TRENDED EAST FROM ITS 06Z RUN YESTERDAY, ALL ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE OP MODEL OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS/JMA/FIM ARE ALL TOO FAR OFFSHORE FOR PCPN WHICH NOW ONLY LEAVES THE CAN GGEM WHICH HAS TRENDED ABOUT A STATE EASTWARD FROM ITS DAY RUN. ITS LATEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOT IN, BUT ITS DAY RUN MEMBERS WERE BASICALLY ALL EAST OF THE OP MODEL. AS FAR AS ANY INITIALIZATION CLUES, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKED BETTER WITH THE SERN CONUS TROF (SLIGHTLY DEEPER). IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND THE KICKER TROF ENTERING THE CONUS, THE INITIALIZATION LOOKED REASONABLE, NO DEEPER OR RIDGIER SURPRISES. THE BIGGEST PROBLEM OF IN THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS IN WHICH WE ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS/EC WAY VS THE WRF-NMMB. STARTING WITH MONDAY MONDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) TO BE AN ISSUE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. CAN SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING WHEN THE CIRRUS THINS AND GENERICALLY WITH THE HIER GEOCAT IFR POPS. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN DIRECTIONALITY, IF ANYTHING MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW THAN TODAY. WE ARE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF EITHER SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE REACHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. WANT TO SEE WHAT OCCURS OR DOES NOT OCCUR SOUTH OF OUR CWA TODAY IN THE DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDING MOISTURE, WHILE TRAPPED, STILL LOOKS RATHER THIN TO GENERATE PCPN. BEING CONSISTENT, IF NOT NECESSARILY WISE, WE OPTED FOR THE COOLER IN GENERAL GFS MOS SERN PART OF OUR CWA AND WARMER NAM MOS NORTHWEST FOR MAX TEMPS. STARTING MONDAY NIGHT, THE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AND BACK SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NORTH. STILL TOO MUCH OF A FLOW TO BE CONFIDENT OF SKIES BEING CLEAR SERN CONUS. WE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE SKY GRIDS. SIMILARLY WE SIDED WITH THE HIER GFS MOS FOR MINS SOUTHEAST (WINDS MIGHT HELP KEEP TEMPS UP ALSO) AND THEN WENT THE LOWER NAM MOS NORTHWEST. TUESDAY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS START GETTING MORE MEAGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SIMULTANEOUSLY THEY GET MORE GENEROUS WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE APPROACHING AND DEEPENING TROF. SO WE MIGHT BE RIGHT FOR THE WRONG REASON ABOUT THE EXTENT OF SUNSHINE. THUS CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX TEMPS, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME LESS ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THE ONSHORE FLOW IS PREDICTED TO BE LESS AS THE WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NORTH AS OUR ATLANTIC LOW WILL BE FARTHER OFFSHORE. DON'T KNOW IF WE CAN BANK ON THIS SCENARIO TO BE TIMED PERFECTLY, BUT WE STARTED THE PROCESS TOWARD LESS SKY COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE, WE NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. NO BIG CHANGES TO THANKSGIVING DAY OR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE JOINED THE GFS IS A FASTER CFP FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE MAXIMIZED POPS THEN. THE OP ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH IS NOT TERRIBLY SURPRISING AT THIS FORECAST TIME JUNCTURE. REGARDLESS AFTER A PAIR OF MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAYS ON THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY, WE DID LOWER MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND ADDED A BIT OF SNOW FAR NORTH. IT LOOKS RATHER TOPSY TURVY WITH TEMPERATURES THE ENSUING WEEK, NOT A SHOCKER THAT THE NAEFS WEEK TWO ENSEMBLE MEAN IS TRENDING TOWARD HIGHER CHANCES FOR A COLDER THAN NORMAL LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHING THE DEW POINTS WHERE WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF...AND PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN PLACES LIKE KRDG AND KMIV. FOR NOW...THIS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE NEW FORECASTS WILL BE AMENDED AS NEEDED FOR MVFR FOG. THE LOW CLOUD IMAGE AND GEOCAT IFR PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST OF KACK TO NEAR KWAL. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT MAY BECOME A PROBLEM FOR KACY AND KMIV LATER TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 9 AND 13 KNOTS. FOR KMIV AND KACY...THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN COULD AFFECT KACY AROUND 1800 UTC AND KMIV CLOSER TO 2000 UTC. BASED ON WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH...MVFR CEILINGS NEAR 2500 FEET ARE EXPECTED...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. FOR TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE MARINE INVERSION COULD MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE DELAWARE RIVER. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KILG TO KTTN...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CEILINGS NEAR 2000 FEET. FOR NOW...A SCATTERED DECK AT THAT LEVEL WAS INDICATED...AND THE POTENTIAL WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 1200 UTC FORECASTS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS. BOTH KACY AND KMIV...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 0600 UTC MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE INVERSION EASES AND MOISTURE MIXES OUT...BUT THAT COULD BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH NO DRY AIR TO INFUSE INTO THE AREA. OUTLOOK... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR KPHL AREA AIRPORTS NORTHWESTWARD. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHEAST TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN...AND FOR WINDS ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND DEVELOPING EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES IS FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AT 44009...BUT NOT QUITE YET ACROSS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. HOWEVER...SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ACROSS MOST OCEAN WATERS...AS THE EASTERLY SWELL COMBINES WITH THE LOCAL WIND WAVES. THE GRADIENT REMAINS ALMOST CONSTANT TODAY...SO THE BEST SHOT AT SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. THE GRADIENT IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS...AND THIS IS BEING REFLECTED IN THE OBSERVATIONS AT 44065 EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE CLOSE...AND THE WAVE WATCH OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY WITH THE EASTERLY SWELL BEING THE PRIMARY WAVE COMPONENT. SO FOR NOW...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN WATERS. WITH REGARD TO THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY...WINDS ARE NO LONGER AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATER THIS MORNING...SO WE WOULD PREFER TO HOLD ONTO THE HEADLINE FOR NOW...RATHER THAN DROP IT AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO NEED IT AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT REMAINS NEARLY CONSTANT...WHICH TRANSLATES TO SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS. GUSTS COULD BE CLOSE ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE...SO THAT LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE THE NEED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS PROBABLY REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LIMITS...WITH THE BEST GRADIENT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. THE WAVEWATCH OUTPUT IS ALSO BORDERLINE FOR SEAS... ESPECIALLY ACROSS ANZ450. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD OFF EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE PENDING TRENDS...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO SEAS. OUTLOOK... ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY WE ARE GOING TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE EDGE AND CONFIDENCE IS THUS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO IT WITH THIS PACKAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD NOR ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. WE DID EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. IT SHOULD BE WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH. IT MAY JUST BE SEAS REACHING CRITERIA AS WE GO FARTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF OF MONMOUTH COUNTY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OFF THE DELAWARE ATLANTIC COAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH. SWELLS FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW AND THE COLLABORATIVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IS THE EXPECTED MORE CONFIDENT DRIVER ABOUT THE CRITERIA BEING MET, ESPECIALLY ONCE WE REACH WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O'HARA NEAR TERM...HAYES SHORT TERM...HAYES LONG TERM...GIGI AVIATION...GIGI/HAYES/O'HARA MARINE...GIGI/HAYES  FXUS61 KPHI 161753 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES EAST OF NEW JERSEY TONIGHT AND CAPE COD ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST LATER ON TUESDAY. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE THE REGION CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE MID 30S AND AS A RESULT, THE SNOW IS NOT ACCUMULATING AS IT FALLS. EVEN WITH THE OVERCAST SKIES, THE SUN IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE UPPED THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLIGHT WARMING TREND. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH AROUND 40 IN THE PHILLY METRO AREA. UPPER 20S WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST THAT WILL ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, CAA WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL HELP TO INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL BE ENHANCED SOME BY THE INCREASING BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER-LEVEL JET FEATURES HELPED DRIVE PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN LARGE SCALE LIFT HAS BEEN SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE LARGE SCALE LIFT HOWEVER STARTS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY, ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND POINTS SOUTHWARD SHOULD EXPAND AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE RENEWED PRECIPITATION SHIELD, HOWEVER THERE IS MORE MODEL CONSENSUS NOW THAT HAS THIS EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. FOR THE QPF, WE WENT RATHER CLOSE TO HPC AND DERIVED OUR SNOW AMOUNTS ALSO FROM THIS. THIS GIVES A SWATH OF GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO START TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT, WHICH WILL HELP ENERGIZE LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS TO OUR EAST. AS THIS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WRAP UP, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND THE CAA WILL DEEPEN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE STRENGTHENS AND TRIES TO REACH TO OUR COAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THE BULK OF THIS OFF SHORE, HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF SNOW FOR OUR COASTAL LOCALES ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING. WE THEREFORE TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT FROM EAST TO WEST WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE COAST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOLING FAIRLY QUICKLY, THEREFORE ANY SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE. AS OF NOW, WE ARE CONTINUING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH EVENT TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ALONG THE COAST, WITH THIS DROPPING OFF WITH AN INLAND EXTENT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, NO ADVISORY ISSUED ATTM AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH QPF IS TOSSED WESTWARD. AS THE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES TOWARD MORNING, WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE ARRIVAL OF CHANNELIZED VORTICITY THAT ROUNDS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BASE. THIS MAY TRY AND PULL ANY ORGANIZING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEASTWARD AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN IT AS IT TRIES TO MAKE A RUN AT A PORTION OF OUR AREA. AS OF NOW, IT SHOULD TEND TO STAY TO OUR WEST GIVEN THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK AN EVEN MOS BLEND. IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE CAA DEEPENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COLDER NIGHT WITH AN ADDED WIND CHILL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT 500MB AGAIN AND IN GENERAL THE DEEPENING TROF SEEMS TO BE HANDLED PRETTY WELL BY THE MODELS. THE DP/DT FROM LAST NIGHT'S RUN SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOLUTION BY THE GFS AND THE ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOW NORTHEAST OF THE OP RUN. THE ECMWF'S ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS CLOSE TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS WESTERN SIDE. SO BY SUNDAY MORNING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER. WHAT IS LEFT FOR THE DAY IS INTERESTING. AS MY DISTINGUISHED COLLEAGUE FROM ACROSS THE AISLE NOTICED, IT LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS SYNOPTICALLY ENHANCED BY THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. THERE IS A CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA AND ALL THE MODELS HAVE THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT IN THIS AREA. THUS ALL THE MODELS ARE KEYING ON THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA WITH SOME QPF. WHILE IT DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A WINDEX EVENT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF A SFC BOUNDARY, WE MIGHT GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS. GIVEN THAT TEMPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER, THEY WOULD QUICKLY COAT THE GROUND. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE BLUSTERY. THE LOWER OF THE TWO MOMENTUM TRANSFER WIND GUSTS OFF OF BUFKIT WHICH NORMALLY WORK BETTER SUGGEST SUB WIND ADVISORY GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH. THE FORECAST 925MB TEMPS AGREED WITH GOING WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS. THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS YET TO CLEAR OUR CWA AS WE START SUNDAY NIGHT, SO WE LEFT THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN FOR THE NORTH. TEMPS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO WARM AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. NONETHELESS, A VERY COLD NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL FACTORS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. (NEGATIVE NORTH AND POSITIVE SOUTH). MONDAY SHOULD FEATURE SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE IT TO THE SFC, SO SOME OF THE RELATIVELY MILDER AIR ALOFT MAY NOT MIX DOWN. WE DID NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM STAT GUIDANCE FOR THIS REASON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND MINS MIGHT BE EARLY PENDING THEIR ARRIVAL. THERE REMAINS THE TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE. WHILE WE WOULD PREFER THE ECMWF'S TIMING AS IT WOULD GIVE THE REGION MORE TIME TO WARM, REALITY OFTEN COMES IN CLOSER TO THE GFS'S FASTER TIMING. SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX IS CARRIED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GREATER PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA. WE MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN WARMING ALL OF THE POCONOS TO ABOVE FREEZING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS QPF GOES, RIGHT NOW, IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A HEAVY EVENT WITH MODEL EVENT TOTALS AROUND HALF AN INCH WATER EQUIVALENT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AND END OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH MORE COLDER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE DID NOT CHANGE THE IDEA OF ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR OUR CWA ON FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE UNDER PREDOMINANTLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS. AN AREA OF RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BE AFFECTING MIV AND ACY. A SLUG OF MVFR CIGS RESIDES JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DC/BALTIMORE CORRIDOR. BASED ON SOME OF THE EXPERIMENTAL GEOCAT SATELLITE DATA, IT IS TRYING TO PUSH INTO ILG/PHL/PNE AND COULD DO SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL UNSURE IF THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO KEEP BASES ABOVE 3000FT SO DECIDED TO PLACE A TEMPO IN FOR THESE POSSIBLE CIGS. OTHERWISE, A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST COULD SLING BACK A BIT OF MOISTURE AND RING IT OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE AFFECTED TERMINALS SO LEFT THEM OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS LOW WILL QUICKLY PULL AWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY SUNDAY MORNING. AMPLE COLD AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND GUSTS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE MID-AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 40 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR AND BLUSTERY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE MODERATE. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START DECREASING ON MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HIGH. TUESDAY...LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF LLWS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. TUESDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE TODAY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND REMAIN TO OUR EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CAA WILL DEEPEN TODAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT, AND WILL BECOME STRONGER TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS TO OUR EAST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALONG WITH THE WIND FIELD. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS TO BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE 925 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40 KNOTS. BASED ON THE DEEPER MIXING FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT, WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR ALL OUR WATERS STARTING AROUND 05Z TONIGHT. THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE SEAS BUILDING, HOWEVER THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN THE HIGHER SETS BEING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY. WE MAY HAVE SOME FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES TOWARD MORNING. OUTLOOK... GALES SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AND MIGHT LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN. GALES ON THE OCEAN MIGHT EVEN LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND SHOULD START BY SUNRISE. BY THE END OF THE DAY WINDS (AND SEAS) ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT THE MARINE AREA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST WATERS ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN SIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MIKETTA NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/MEOLA SHORT TERM...GORSE LONG TERM...GIGI AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/MIKETTA MARINE...GIGI/GORSE  FXUS61 KPHI 300856 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 456 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER OUR AREA, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE ESTF UPDATES ARE GOING TO BE TO CAPTURE HIGHER POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THERE IS SOME UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION ASSISTING AND WE CAN SEE THE LOSS OF LOW CLOUDS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST. THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION CONTINUED TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE GFS ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS LIKE ITS ON ITS WAY TO WINNING THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR AWARD. TODAY'S MODEL SUITE IS MUCH CLOSER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE WILL USE A MODEL BLEND TO IRON THE DIFFERENCES. WE CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE POCONOS AS THE PLATEAU IS LITERALLY IN THE CLOUDS. THE 500MB TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKENING FURTHER. WHAT WEAK WAA WILL ALSO BE DONE BY 12Z. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY, WE ARE WAITING FOR THE DRY AIR TO ARRIVE AND CUT OFF THE LIGHT PCPN. THERE IS A WEAK LOW OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA THAT IS ENHANCING THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE CAN SEE PCPN BACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON RADAR IMAGERY AND STILL BEING OBSERVED OCCASIONALLY ELSEWHERE AS THE RADAR BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING IT. IN TERMS OF POPS, WE TREND THEM DOWNWARD QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN CUT IT OFF CLOSE TO THE MEASURABLE LINE DEPICTED BY THE 00Z WRF-NMMB. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN .10" OF AN INCH AND PROBABLY JUST TRACES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON AFTER 8 AM. BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH REMOVING THE CLOUDINESS, NOT AS FAST AS SOME OF THE STAT GUIDANCE. WE WERE ALSO CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS, MORE OFTEN CLOSER TO NAM MOS. STILL DONT UNDERSTAND WHY THE STAT GUIDANCE WAS BANKING THE HIGHEST MAX TEMPS FOR OUR CWA "JUST INLAND" FROM THE COAST WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WAS NOT FOLLOWED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS, WE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN FOR TONIGHT. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN LOWER DELMARVA AS SOME RAIN IS STILL FCST TO BACK INTO THE CONUS S OF OUR CWA. THE DP/DT ON THIS HAS BEEN SOUTHWARD. ON THE PLUS SIDE, SKIES SHOULD BECOME OR BE MOSTLY CLEAR. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS, THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY BEEN DEEMED STARTED FOR THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ AND MENTION OF FROST IN THE GRIDS IS SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. STAT GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS PRETTY CLOSE AND WE DID NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM IT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME IS DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK. THIS IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS/MIDWEST, A RIDGE IN THE EAST, AND ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP WILL TEND TO HOLD A STRONG SURFACE HIGH UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SOME. THE AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION HOWEVER COULD BECOME ALTERED AT TIMES, ONE OF WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AS A POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORT WAVE LENGTH VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM NEWFOUNDLAND ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH. THE PLAINS PORTION OF TROUGH MAY END UP BECOMING A POTENT CUT OFF LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD POINT TO A RATHER SLOW MOVING PATTERN SETTING UP. WE GENERALLY USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN SWITCHED TO WPC GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL ENERGY THAT HAS DRIFTED TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND SLIDE FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THAT STARTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH THE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD SOME. THE GFS WAS INITIALLY STRONGER WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERN PUSH OF DRIER AIR, AND IT NOW SEEMS LIKE MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS JOINED IN. BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC SETUP UP ATTM, THE MAIN ONSHORE PUSH IS SHOVED TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA FOR A TIME. DESPITE AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT CONTINUING, WE ARE FAVORING A CLEARER SKY AND ALSO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OR LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE DELMARVA FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING, BUT EVEN HERE MORE CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT A SECONDARY PUSH OF INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY AND FOR A TIME AT NIGHT. WE THEREFORE SHOWED SOME INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DATABASE FROM EAST TO WEST. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ARRIVES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, WITH A FAIRLY NARROW BUT STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. THE EXCEPTION IS THE LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THAT LOOKS TO FEATURE A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM/CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN. THIS SLIDES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THURSDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE THEN SLIDES BY TO OUR EAST DURING FRIDAY, AND WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LARGER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE DOES HOWEVER LOWER THE HEIGHTS SOME ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC COASTS FOR A TIME, AND PUSHING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST SOME. THIS SHOULD RESULT A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS GENERATED FROM THIS FEATURE, AND EVEN SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT QPF FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS AS OF NOW THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY ENOUGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THOUGH GIVEN THE ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SOME COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW, WE DID ADJUST THE CLOUD COVER UP SOME MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHC AS THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR EAST. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES, HOWEVER SOME EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST. THIS ALLOWS THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO SHIFT EAST SOME, PULLING THE RIDGE ALSO EAST. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD AND SETTLE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROBABLY ARRIVES IN OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A RATHER POTENT CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SETUP ALLOWS LESS OF AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE PRESENT. THE WEAKER FLOW SHOULD TEND TO PROMOTE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. THESE WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES, THEREFORE WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE, WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLS OVER THE RIDGE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE OMEGA BLOCK, WHILE STILL INTACT, STARTS TO MOVE SOME MORE. THIS OCCURS AS STRONGER FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SAGS SOUTHWARD SOME, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE RIDGE OVERALL SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, WHICH WOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WAA REGIME. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW, HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MAY BE EJECTING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD TO FAST. OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE PLANNED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE 06Z TAFS FORECASTED IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE DAY CONTINUES, BUT STARTED ALL TAF SITES WITH THE MENTION OF IFR. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ABOUT THE GENERAL IMPROVING TREND, THE ACTUAL TIMING WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT AND TENDED TO BE CONSERVATIVE (SLOW) WITH THE IMPROVEMENT VS GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. ALSO SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER MVFR AND EVEN BRIEFLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP. UPDATE: A VFR AREA HAS MOVED INTO KACY AND KMIV. THE GEOCAT IFR PROBABILITIES ARE GETTING PRETTY LOW NEAR THE COAST. HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MASKING WHAT LOWER CLOUDS THERE ARE OR ARE NOT LURKING OFF THE COAST. WE HAVE REMOVED IFR FROM THESE TWO LOCATIONS, BUT KEPT AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG. THROUGH THE MORNING IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY RISING TO MVFR LEVELS. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AROUND REDUCING VSBYS. OUR INITIAL THOUGHT WAS WRONG, IMPROVEMENT HAS COME FIRST AT KMIV AND KACY AND THE WESTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS (KRDG) MAY BE THE LAST TO LOSE THE IFR CIG. DURING THIS AFTERNOON CIGS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. DURING THIS EVENING WE ARE FORECASTING THE VFR CIG TO DISSIPATE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF INCREASING MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE. LOW CONFIDENCE IF THIS DEVELOPS INTO AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHTER AT NIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY TO OUR EAST. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS, MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... NO CHANGE IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. SEAS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE AND WE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE LLJ IS NOT MIXING DOWN THE WINDS EFFICIENTLY SO FAR THIS MORNING, SO WE DECIDED TO NOT ADD LOWER DELAWARE BAY IN THE CURRENT SCA. WIND GUSTS WERE CAPPED RIGHT AROUND THE MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR SCA. AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY, THE THREAT OF ANY SCA CRITERIA WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... A BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND, WITH POTENTIALLY SOME UPTICK LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORT WAVE SLIDES BY TO OUR EAST. OVERALL THOUGH, THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES. THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER DEPENDING ON HOW THE SWELLS BEHAVE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY REMAINING INTO SATURDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ451>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE MARINE...GIGI/GORSE  FXUS61 KPHI 300949 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 549 AM EDT TUE APR 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, ANCHORED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THIS WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER OUR AREA, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE ESTF UPDATES ARE GOING TO BE TO CAPTURE HIGHER POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. THERE IS SOME UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION ASSISTING AND WE CAN SEE THE LOSS OF LOW CLOUDS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST. THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION CONTINUED TO LOOK BETTER THAN THE GFS ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS LIKE ITS ON ITS WAY TO WINNING THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRY AIR AWARD. TODAY'S MODEL SUITE IS MUCH CLOSER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS WE WILL USE A MODEL BLEND TO IRON THE DIFFERENCES. WE CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE POCONOS AS THE PLATEAU IS LITERALLY IN THE CLOUDS. THE 500MB TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKENING FURTHER. WHAT WEAK WAA WILL ALSO BE DONE BY 12Z. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY, WE ARE WAITING FOR THE DRY AIR TO ARRIVE AND CUT OFF THE LIGHT PCPN. THERE IS A WEAK LOW OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA THAT IS ENHANCING THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE CAN SEE PCPN BACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA ON RADAR IMAGERY AND STILL BEING OBSERVED OCCASIONALLY ELSEWHERE AS THE RADAR BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING IT. IN TERMS OF POPS, WE TREND THEM DOWNWARD QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN CUT IT OFF CLOSE TO THE MEASURABLE LINE DEPICTED BY THE 00Z WRF-NMMB. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN .10" OF AN INCH AND PROBABLY JUST TRACES NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA AND TRENTON AFTER 8 AM. BECAUSE OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WE WERE CONSERVATIVE WITH REMOVING THE CLOUDINESS, NOT AS FAST AS SOME OF THE STAT GUIDANCE. WE WERE ALSO CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS, MORE OFTEN CLOSER TO NAM MOS. STILL DONT UNDERSTAND WHY THE STAT GUIDANCE WAS BANKING THE HIGHEST MAX TEMPS FOR OUR CWA "JUST INLAND" FROM THE COAST WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WAS NOT FOLLOWED. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS, WE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN FOR TONIGHT. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IN LOWER DELMARVA AS SOME RAIN IS STILL FCST TO BACK INTO THE CONUS S OF OUR CWA. THE DP/DT ON THIS HAS BEEN SOUTHWARD. ON THE PLUS SIDE, SKIES SHOULD BECOME OR BE MOSTLY CLEAR. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS, THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY BEEN DEEMED STARTED FOR THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ AND MENTION OF FROST IN THE GRIDS IS SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. STAT GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS PRETTY CLOSE AND WE DID NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM IT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME IS DOMINATED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK. THIS IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE PLAINS/MIDWEST, A RIDGE IN THE EAST, AND ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP WILL TEND TO HOLD A STRONG SURFACE HIGH UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SOME. THE AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION HOWEVER COULD BECOME ALTERED AT TIMES, ONE OF WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AS A POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORT WAVE LENGTH VORTICITY MAXIMUM DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM NEWFOUNDLAND ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH. THE PLAINS PORTION OF TROUGH MAY END UP BECOMING A POTENT CUT OFF LOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD POINT TO A RATHER SLOW MOVING PATTERN SETTING UP. WE GENERALLY USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN SWITCHED TO WPC GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS AND WINDS. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL ENERGY THAT HAS DRIFTED TO OUR SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND SLIDE FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING THAT STARTS TO BUILD OVERHEAD, ALTHOUGH THE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD SOME. THE GFS WAS INITIALLY STRONGER WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERN PUSH OF DRIER AIR, AND IT NOW SEEMS LIKE MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS JOINED IN. BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC SETUP UP ATTM, THE MAIN ONSHORE PUSH IS SHOVED TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA FOR A TIME. DESPITE AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT CONTINUING, WE ARE FAVORING A CLEARER SKY AND ALSO REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHC OR LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE DELMARVA FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING, BUT EVEN HERE MORE CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT A SECONDARY PUSH OF INCREASED MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE DAY AND FOR A TIME AT NIGHT. WE THEREFORE SHOWED SOME INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DATABASE FROM EAST TO WEST. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IF THIS ENDS UP BEING A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS THAT ARRIVES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A RATHER AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE, WITH A FAIRLY NARROW BUT STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. THE EXCEPTION IS THE LARGE TROUGH OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THAT LOOKS TO FEATURE A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM/CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN. THIS SLIDES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THURSDAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE THEN SLIDES BY TO OUR EAST DURING FRIDAY, AND WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN LARGER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE DOES HOWEVER LOWER THE HEIGHTS SOME ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC COASTS FOR A TIME, AND PUSHING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST SOME. THIS SHOULD RESULT A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIRMASS TO ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. IT IS LESS CERTAIN HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER IS GENERATED FROM THIS FEATURE, AND EVEN SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS IN SOME LIGHT QPF FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL IN PLACE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS AS OF NOW THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY ENOUGH. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THOUGH GIVEN THE ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH SOME COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW, WE DID ADJUST THE CLOUD COVER UP SOME MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FOR NOW, WE KEPT THE POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHC AS THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS WITH THIS POTENT SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR EAST. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES, HOWEVER SOME EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST. THIS ALLOWS THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO SHIFT EAST SOME, PULLING THE RIDGE ALSO EAST. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD AND SETTLE RIGHT OVER OUR AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROBABLY ARRIVES IN OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A RATHER POTENT CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SETUP ALLOWS LESS OF AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE PRESENT. THE WEAKER FLOW SHOULD TEND TO PROMOTE SEA BREEZE AND BAY BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. THESE WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES, THEREFORE WE CONTINUED TO FAVOR COOLER READINGS CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS OUR REGION LOOKS TO BE IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE, WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLS OVER THE RIDGE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. FOR MONDAY...OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE OMEGA BLOCK, WHILE STILL INTACT, STARTS TO MOVE SOME MORE. THIS OCCURS AS STRONGER FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SAGS SOUTHWARD SOME, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE RIDGE OVERALL SHIFTS TO OUR EAST, WHICH WOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WAA REGIME. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW, HOWEVER SOME OF THE GUIDANCE MAY BE EJECTING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD TO FAST. OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE PLANNED FOR THIS TIME FRAME. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. FOR THE 12Z TAFS WE ARE GOING TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC. GEOCAT SATL IMAGERY IFR PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO LOWER IN NJ. WANT TO WAIT FOR THE VSBL SATL IMAGERY BEFORE REMOVING ALL MENTION OF MVFR, BUT WE ARE GOING TO REMOVE ANY IFR MENTION FROM THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS EASTWARD (ILG LAST MINUTE DECISION). LOW CLOUDS STILL BANKED INTO KABE AND KRDG, SO WILL LEAVE THEM IFR FOR A WHILE. ANY PCPN IS GETTING LIGHTER ON RADAR AND SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT AT WORST ON VSBYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS NEAR THE COAST. DURING THIS AFTERNOON CIGS ARE FORECAST TO BE VFR OR BECOME VFR (FROM MVFR) BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. FOR TONIGHT WE ARE FORECASTING THE VFR CIG TO DISSIPATE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY OCCUR FROM THE NORTHEAST THOUGH LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A SECONDARY PUSH OF INCREASING MOISTURE COULD ARRIVE. LOW CONFIDENCE IF THIS DEVELOPS INTO AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY NEAR 10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHTER AT NIGHT. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH PERHAPS MORE CLOUDINESS FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE SLIDES BY TO OUR EAST. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS, MAY BECOME SOUTHEAST AT TIMES. SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS. && .MARINE... NO CHANGE IN THE MARINE HEADLINES. SEAS ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE AND WE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE LLJ IS NOT MIXING DOWN THE WINDS EFFICIENTLY SO FAR THIS MORNING, SO WE DECIDED TO NOT ADD LOWER DELAWARE BAY IN THE CURRENT SCA. WIND GUSTS WERE CAPPED RIGHT AROUND THE MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR SCA. AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY, THE THREAT OF ANY SCA CRITERIA WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... A BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED TO OUR NORTHEAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND, WITH POTENTIALLY SOME UPTICK LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A POTENT BUT COMPACT SHORT WAVE SLIDES BY TO OUR EAST. OVERALL THOUGH, THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES. THEREFORE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER DEPENDING ON HOW THE SWELLS BEHAVE WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW GENERALLY REMAINING INTO SATURDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ451>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE MARINE...GIGI/GORSE  FXUS61 KPHI 140549 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 149 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH ITS CENTER REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 AM ESTF...ENDS SHOWERS SE PA AND NNJ NOW AS THEY ARE FADING. WE HAVE JUST SWITCHED TO CLEAR AIR MODE VCP32 ON RADAR AND SOON WILL CLEAR THE STP/STA. OTRW...PATCHY THICK FOG WITH VSBY LESS THAN 1 MI IS FORMING IN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE NIGHT AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUING AN SPS..OR A DENSE FOG ADVY - NPW FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE FCST TO DROP TO NEAR DEWPTS OVERNIGHT AND MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER SEVERAL HUNDRED FT DEEP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS. MAV/LAV GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST FOG FORMATION. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE OVERNIGHT FCST PERIOD. TODAY...**SIX TO 7 DAY HEAT WAVE BEGINS** 850 18Z TEMP OF NEAR 17C IS CONVERTED TO A MODELED FCST OF 90-93F HIGH TEMP THIS AFTN TO WITHIN A MILE OR TWO OF THE COASTS PER THE WARMER OF THE 00Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS. ALSO USED THE SLIGHTLY WETTER 00Z/14 GFS MAVMOS FOR THE DEWPOINTS. THE RESULT IS MAX HEAT INDEX OF AROUND 97F I95 CORRIDOR-KPHL...100F AT KACY AND 101F AT KESN. NO HEAT ADVY TODAY. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE POCONOS TO SUSSEX COUNTY NJ 84-89F...CERTAINLY WARMER THAN YDY BUT AGAIN...NEED TO CLEAR OUT ALL THE LOW CLOUD COVER THERE WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. SATELLITE ESTIMATED STRATUS CLOUD THICKNESS THERE AT 05Z WAS NEARLY 1000FT. AT A 500 FT PER HOUR SUMMER BURNOFF RATE...THATS AT LEAST 2 HOURS FULL SUN. WE WONT COUNT SUNRISE AS THE FIRST HOUR. AM FIGURING AT LEAST 14Z. MORE SS TODAY THAN YDY AS THE THE KI AND PWAT IS LOWER...THE BAND OF 2" PWAT AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER KI HAVING LIFTED JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...TO NEAR LI NWWD INTO SRN NYS. THAT BECOMES THE AXIS OF ANY AFTN CONVECTION BENEATH THE SUPPRESSING ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 5H RIDGE OF NEARLY 600 DECAMETERS..AT LEAST 2SD ABOVE NORMAL! THE MID LVL ANOMALY HAS NOT YET CONVERTED TO A 2SD 850 WARM ANOMALY THOUGH IT MIGHT EVENTUALLY. FOR NOW...850 IS AT LEAST 1SD ABOVE NORMAL. AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN TSTM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NW TIP OF NJ..SUSSEX COUNTY..OTRW THE KI LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN. WIND MAINLY WSW G10-15 KT THIS AFTN. THE 330 AM FCST USED A 50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS FOR WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF A TSTM THRU 11PM FOR SUSSEX COUNTY NJ ON THE SRN EDGE OF WNW ESE AXIS OF 34C KI. OTRW...SINCE ITS A MUCH WARMER START TO THE NIGHT...LESS CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND DENSE FOG AS WE GO INTO FULL SUMMER MODE. SO SOME PATCHY THICK FOG LATE BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD. FAIR HAZY SKIES WITH LIGHT SW WIND. AGAIN 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/14 GFS NAM MOS FOR WINDS AND GENERALLY THE WARMER OF THESE TWO GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS/DEWS. WLY BL WIND AHEAD OF A SWD SINKING TROUGH MAY KEEP THE MIN TEMP UP AT ABOUT 78F TONIGHT FOR PHL AND THE URBAN CENTERS. HAVE RAISED THE 00Z/14 MIN TEMP GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY AT KPHL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MID LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY EVENING. IT SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER INDIANA AND ILLINOIS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO SINK TO THE SOUTH AND ELONGATE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. A PERIOD OF HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 WILL BE COMMON, EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. WE HAVE ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS IN AND AROUND PHILADELPHIA. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON ON MONDAY UNTIL 800 PM TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AND POTENTIAL WARNING MAY VERY WELL BE EXTENDED IN TIME AS WE GET INTO THE NEW WEEK. WE MAY ALSO NEED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR THE SURROUNDING AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE TO OUR NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE ALOFT MAY HELP TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THAT TIME. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE SINKS TO THE SOUTH, THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THE GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE DETAILS AT THE SURFACE BUT THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PUSH AN INITIAL SURFACE TROUGH INTO OUR REGION AROUND FRIDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE HAVE CARRIED A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF IFR-LIFR ST/FOG VCNTY KABE-KMPO-KTTN-KMIV-KPNE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD 10Z. LIGHT S WIND. SCT SHOWERS N OF RTE 80 IN NJ END BY 07Z AND THOSE SHOWERS APPROACHING KRDG SHOULD ALSO END BY 07Z. TODAY...AFTER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 13-14Z...VFR SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 4000 FT. W-SW WIND G 10-15 KT THIS AFTN. TONIGHT...VFR MAY BECOME MVFR FOG LATE. LIGHT SW WIND. THE 21Z/13 SREF PROBS FOR IFR CONDS TONIGHT ARE FAR FAR LESS THAN THE PROBS FOR EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. A CAVEAT...SREF DOES NOT CAPTURE SHALLOW DENSE FOG. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. QUIET CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE FCST WATERS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT VSBYS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SWLY ON SUNDAY BUT INCREASING SOMEWHAT LATE IN THE DAY. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .RIP CURRENTS... IT APPEARS WE HAVE A WEEK OF MOSTLY LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS (THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY) AS THERE ARE NO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE ATLC BASIN TO SEND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AT MOST BRIEFLY 15 KTS IN THE AFTNS AND SEA BREEZES ARE NOT A GUARANTEE BUT LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTN. THE STANDARD REMINDER... LOW RISK DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK!! SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS FOR GREATEST SAFETY! USED 2FT 9SEC PERIOD AND ONSHORE WIND OF 12 KT TO DETERMINE THE RISK THE ENTIRE WEEK. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY INCREASING MAKING IT MORE FAVORABLE TO SWIM IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. PLAN ON NEEDING LOTS OF SUNSCREEN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS IN PHL THIS COMING WEEK ARE 100 OR HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN 99 ON SATURDAY. WE'LL LIST SOME RECORD HIGHS THAT MIGHT BE VULNERABLE FOR BEING EQUALED OR WITHIN 2 DEGREES AFTER ANY LONG TERM FCST ADJUSTMENTS ARE ACCOMPLISHED BY 330 AM. IF WE DO POST RER MAX TEMP POTENTIAL DATA...IT WONT SHOW HERE TIL AT LEAST 5 AM. WE ARE PLANNING TO ISSUE A PNS FOR THE HEAT THAT WILL INCLUDE NATIONAL HEAT RELATED STATISTICS FOR 2012 AND LOCALIZED AS WELL...AGAIN AROUND 5 AM. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...DRAG 149A SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO 149A MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO RIP CURRENTS... CLIMATE...  FXUS61 KPHI 140806 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 406 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A HOT AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST POSSIBLY ARRIVING NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY THICK FOG WITH VSBY LESS THAN 1 MI IS INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRING IN PARTS OF OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY SUNRISE AND WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED AN SPS. A DENSE FOG ADVY IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SINCE THE VSBY NEAR 1/4 MI IS PATCHY AND ITS MORE OF A STRATUS ENVIRONMENT SO FAR. TODAY...**SIX TO 7 DAY HEAT WAVE BEGINS** 850 18Z TEMP OF NEAR 17C IS CONVERTED TO A MODELED FCST OF 90-93F HIGH TEMP THIS AFTN TO WITHIN A MILE OR TWO OF THE COASTS PER THE WARMER OF THE 00Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS. ALSO USED THE SLIGHTLY WETTER 00Z/14 GFS MAVMOS FOR THE DEWPOINTS. THE RESULT IS MAX HEAT INDEX OF AROUND 97F I95 CORRIDOR-KPHL...100F AT KACY AND 101F AT KESN. WE HAVE SPOT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100F IN BURLINGTON//OCEAN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH COUNTIES OF NJ THIS AFTERNOON. ATTM...NO HEAT ADVY THERE SINCE ITS MARGINAL...MAYBE ONLY AN HOUR AND BASED ON USE OF THE WARMER 00Z/14 GUIDANCE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. ANY OVERFORECAST OF THE TEMP OR DEWPOINT WOULD REDUCE THE MAX HI TO 99. SO...NO HEAT ADVY TODAY. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE POCONOS TO SUSSEX COUNTY NJ 84-89F...CERTAINLY WARMER THAN YDY BUT AGAIN...NEED TO CLEAR OUT ALL THE LOW CLOUD COVER THERE WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. SATELLITE ESTIMATED STRATUS CLOUD THICKNESS THERE AT 07Z WAS NEARLY 1000FT. AT A 500 FT PER HOUR SUMMER BURNOFF RATE...THATS AT LEAST 2 HOURS FULL SUN. WE WONT COUNT SUNRISE AS THE FIRST HOUR. AM FIGURING AT LEAST 14Z. MORE SS TODAY THAN YDY AS THE THE KI AND PWAT IS LOWER...THE BAND OF 2" PWAT AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER KI HAVING LIFTED JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA...TO NEAR LI NWWD INTO SRN NYS. THAT BECOMES THE AXIS OF ANY AFTN CONVECTION BENEATH THE SUPPRESSING ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 5H RIDGE OF NEARLY 600 DECAMETERS..AT LEAST 2SD ABOVE NORMAL! THE MID LVL ANOMALY HAS NOT YET CONVERTED TO A 2SD 850 WARM ANOMALY THOUGH IT MIGHT EVENTUALLY. FOR NOW...850 IS AT LEAST 1SD ABOVE NORMAL. AN ISOLATED LATE AFTN TSTM IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NW TIP OF NJ..SUSSEX COUNTY..OTRW THE KI LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS IN THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTN. THE 00Z/14 ECMWF HAS A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS INTO E PA TODAY BUT ATTM... RELYING ON COMBINED NCEP GUIDANCE AND BOTH EC/GFS KI VALUES WHICH ARE DRIER AND LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANY RAIN TODAY EXPECT POSSIBLY FAR NNJ. WIND MAINLY WSW G10-15 KT THIS AFTN. THE 330 AM FCST USED A 50 50 BLEND OF 00Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS FOR WINDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF A TSTM THRU 11PM FOR SUSSEX COUNTY NJ ON THE SRN EDGE OF WNW ESE AXIS OF 34C KI. OTRW...SINCE ITS A MUCH WARMER START TO THE NIGHT...LESS CHANCE FOR STRATUS AND DENSE FOG AS WE GO INTO FULL SUMMER MODE. SO SOME PATCHY THICK FOG LATE BUT PROBABLY NOT AS WIDESPREAD. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY HAZY SKIES WITH LIGHT SW WIND. AGAIN 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/14 GFS NAM MOS FOR WINDS AND GENERALLY THE WARMER OF THESE TWO GUIDANCE PRODUCTS FOR TEMPS/DEWS. THE WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AHEAD OF A SWD SINKING TROUGH MAY KEEP THE MIN TEMP UP AT ABOUT 78F TONIGHT FOR PHL AND THE URBAN CENTERS. HAVE RAISED THE 00Z/14 MIN TEMP GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY AT KPHL. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A MID LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE EVENTUALLY DRIFTING SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, A NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, AND THIS MAY SEND A SURFACE TROUGH INTO OUR REGION. THIS COULD HELP TO BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BY NEXT WEEKEND, INTO SATURDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THIS POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO THE END OF THE LONG TERM, KEEPING CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT BEST. THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE ON MONDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH SETTLING INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST ATTM AS THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH WILL BE PROVIDING MORE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT, FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, WE ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION, AS MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE, WITH THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WE HAVE CONVERTED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS IN AND AROUND PHILADELPHIA. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 90S, AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL YIELD AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK, AND WE ALSO DECIDED TO PUT UP AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR THE PHL METRO/I-95 CORRIDOR AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH FUTURE UPDATES, HEAT HEADLINES MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SURROUNDING LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA, AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE HOTTEST DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG LIGHT S WIND. TODAY...AFTER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 13-14Z...VFR SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN CIGS NEAR 4000 FT. W-SW WIND G 10-15 KT THIS AFTN. TONIGHT...VFR MAY BECOME MVFR FOG LATE. LIGHT SW WIND. THE 21Z/13 SREF PROBS FOR IFR CONDS TONIGHT ARE FAR FAR LESS THAN THE PROBS FOR EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. A CAVEAT...SREF DOES NOT CAPTURE SHALLOW DENSE FOG. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, EARLY AM VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG/HAZE. ALSO, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS DURING AFTN COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. EARLY AM SUB-VFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN FOG/HAZE. && .MARINE... NO SCA HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. NOTING A 4 FT SE SWELL VCNTY 44009 ATTM WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER THAN MODELED. 00Z/14 GFS WW3 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD DECAY TO 2 OR 3 FT BY MIDDAY. GENERALLY A SW WIND WITH G UNDER 20 KT THRU TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. && .RIP CURRENTS... IT APPEARS WE HAVE A WEEK OF MOSTLY LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS (THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY) AS THERE ARE NO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE ATLC BASIN TO SEND LONGER PERIOD SWELLS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AT MOST BRIEFLY 15 KTS IN THE AFTNS AND SEA BREEZES ARE NOT A GUARANTEE BUT LIKELY FOR A FEW HOURS EACH AFTN. WE ARE WATCHING A RECENT 4 FT SE SWELL AT 44009 BUT ATTM NOT EXPECTING THIS TO PERSIST BEYOND 9 AM TODAY. THE STANDARD REMINDER... LOW RISK DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK!! SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS FOR GREATEST SAFETY! USED 2-3FT 8SEC PERIOD AND ONSHORE WIND OF 12 KT TO DETERMINE THE RISK FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY INCREASING MAKING IT MORE FAVORABLE TO SWIM IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. PLAN ON NEEDING LOTS OF SUNSCREEN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS IN PHL THIS COMING WEEK ARE 100 OR HIGHER THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN 99 ON SATURDAY. WE'LL LIST SOME RECORD HIGHS THAT MIGHT BE VULNERABLE FOR BEING EQUALED OR WITHIN 2 DEGREES AFTER ANY LONG TERM FCST ADJUSTMENTS ARE ACCOMPLISHED BY 330 AM. IF WE DO POST RER MAX TEMP POTENTIAL DATA...IT WONT SHOW HERE TIL AT LEAST 5 AM. WE ARE PLANNING TO ISSUE A PNS FOR THE HEAT THAT WILL INCLUDE NATIONAL HEAT RELATED STATISTICS FOR 2012 AND LOCALIZED AS WELL...AGAIN AROUND 5 AM. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106. NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-017>019. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019. DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR DEZ001. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...DRAG SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE MARINE...DRAG/KLINE RIP CURRENTS...DRAG CLIMATE...DRAG  FXUS61 KPHI 090747 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 347 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST AROUND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TODAY'S WEATHER WILL PROBABLY BE THE POOREST OF THE WEEK WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND INTERACT WITH THIS WARM HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AND ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION. ONE BATCH OF RAINS ACROSS NE PA AND NRN NJ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAWN. THE MODELS INDICATE MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS BLOSSOMING LATER THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. WE DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD SVR OUTBREAK TODAY...BUT ANY TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND DECENT DOWNPOURS. WE CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR A WHILE EARLIER...BUT DECIDED AGAINST IT SINCE THE QPF FROM YDAY AND THU NIGHT WAS SPOTTY AND NOT TOO EXCESSIVE. THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RAINS ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ...BUT CONSIDERING THE FFG ACROSS THOSE AREAS...ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN TODAY WILL PROBABLY NOT CREATE MANY ISSUES. LOCAL FLS PRODUCTS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY SLOW MOVING TSTMS DEVELOP. OVERALL FFW POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE GENERALLY WENT ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS/PERSISTENCE COMBO WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH MID/UPPER 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 80S NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS. WINDS...MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...G20 THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. POPS DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WINDS SHIFT TO WRLY THEN NWRLY OVERNIGHT AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE AREA. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER DAWN SAT TO BEGIN MIXING THE DRIER AIR DOWN. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 70S OVER THE SOUTH...WHERE THE FRONT WILL CROSS LATE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, THE AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT WILL BE OFF THE CST AND ALL OF THE MDL GUID IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT SAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY IF NOT ALL DRY. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY LINGERING PRECIP, IT WILL BE EARLY AND ACRS THE S. FOR NOW, WILL JUST KEEP SOME VERY LOW POPS ACRS SRN AREAS EARLY AND THIS COULD END UP BEING OVERDONE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL REMAIN STALLED S OF THE REGION AND SUNDAY LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY AS WELL. SOME OF THE GUID IS INDICATING SOME POPS OVER THE EXTREME SRN AREAS, WHILE OTHER GUID KEEPS THE POPS S OF THE CWA. SINCE THE GFS (THE GUID WITH THE MOST NWD EXTENT) OFTEN OVERDOES ITS PRECIP FIELD, AM INCLINED TO GO WITH THE OTHER SOLNS ATTM, BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS LATER ON SUN ACRS THE S IF OTHER GUID COMES INTO AGREEMENT. BY MON, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO BRING A WEAK LOW TO THE S AND AGAIN ITS A QUESTION OF HOW FAR N ANY PRECIP WOULD COME. ONCE AGAIN, THE GFS HAS A FURTHER N EXTENT, BUT BOTH MDLS INDICATE A STRONGER LOW, SO HAVE BOUGHT OFF ON A MORE NRN EXTENT THIS TIME AND BROUGHT SOME LOW POPS EVERYWHERE, BUT THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. BY TUE, A CDFNT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE W AND WILL CROSS THE REGION BY TUE NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST CHC OF RAIN. BEHIND THE CFP, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NRN PLAINS AND BRING DRY WX FOR WED AND THU. TEMPS LOOK TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NRML THRU MIDWEEK AND THEN WILL BE A TAD BELOW NRML BEHIND THE TUE FROPA AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN, DEW POINTS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR MID AUGUST THOUGH. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. PLENTY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF HUMID AIR AND SEVERAL WEAK S/W MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE AREAS NORTH/WEST BEING FAVORED EARLY AND THEN THE DEL VALLEY AND SRN AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVING BEHIND IT FRI NIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE INDICATING ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH...THEN MORE DURING THE MORNING NORTH/CENTRAL FOLLOWED BY A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MORE SCT TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE BLENDED THIS IN WITH SOME INPUT FROM THE EARLIER TAFS TO ARRIVE AT A LOW-MOD CONFID FCST. LIKE YDAY...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON TRYING TO TIME TSTMS TODAY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT TRY TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON IT. I COULD INSERT SOME IN THE 12Z TAFS IF CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE LATER. OUTLOOK... SAT THROUGH MON...THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LOWER CIGS EARLY SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE S, OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TUES...VFR TO POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES WITH SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE AS CDFNT CROSSES THE REGION FROM W TO E. WNDSHFT WITH CFP. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ITS ATTACHED FRONT BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK INVERSION IN PLACE TODAY...BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH MIXING TO ALLOW SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS (AROUND 30 KTS) TO CREATE SOME GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FT...SO WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG FOR THE 12Z TO 00Z PERIOD TO COVER THESE ENHANCED CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH WITH SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EARLY THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDS SHIFT TO WRLY TONIGHT THEN NW BY MORNING. OUTLOOK... A COLD FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CSTL WATERS, EVENTUALLY STALLING TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH MON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENL BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENLY UNDER 10 KT AND GUSTS UNDER 15 KT, SO SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PD. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...O'HARA SHORT TERM...O'HARA LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O'HARA MARINE...NIERENBERG/O'HARA  FXUS61 KPHI 050846 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 346 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TH EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIFT ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO CANADA TODAY. THE ATTACHED WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SRN PARTS OF THE AREA GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. AREAS TO THE FAR NORTH MAY REMAIN IN THE FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUATION OF LOW CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN THERE. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW/MID 60S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CROSS THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION BY AROUND DAWN. MOSTLY LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. POPS ACROSS THE SRN DELMARVA WILL REMAIN IN THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW. IT WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WRN AREAS BY DAWN BEFORE SPREADING EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERALL PRECIP THRU 12Z SAT WILL TOTAL .10 ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND CLOSER TO .50 IN THE SRN POCONOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH A BREAK POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END. THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFFSHORE, BUT THERE WILL STILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AS SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A GOOD MOISTURE INFLUX ACROSS THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING AS ONE SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES TO OUR NORTH, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS LATER DURING THE DAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE APPROACHES AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM EARLY IN THE DAY, BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A WINTRY MIX BY FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN FACT, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A COLD SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW ALL PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR, MAINLY FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP BEING DRY FOR MOST AREAS AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BRIEFLY BUILD TO OUR NORTH. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF ANY VORTICITY IMPULSES TO HELP CREATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION PUSHES SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON MONDAY, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE, THIS PRECIPITATION WILL POSSIBLY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIXTURE FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN MONDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN. OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD HOLD ON THE THE WINTRY MIXTURE LONGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR COULD GET DAMMED UP BEFORE THE WARM SURGE PUSHES THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THERE STILL WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE HOWEVER UNTIL THE FRONT AND IT'S MOISTURE COMPLETELY PULL AWAY. DRIER WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY SKIRT TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY DO NOT FARE WELL FOR GREAT FLYING CONDITIONS. IFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS IN FOG ARE ALREADY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE VFR MAY RETURN FOR SEVERAL HOURS (LOW CONFID). WINDS WILL VEER FROM E/SE EARLY TODAY TO SRLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO SW TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND IT. IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT VERY LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR POSSIBLE EARLY, BECOMING MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN BY AFTERNOON/EVENING, POSSIBLE CHANGING TO WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WINDS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PROBABLE WITH RAIN/WINTRY MIX SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WINDING UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING FOR ONTARIO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SLOWLY IMPROVES TODAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT. IT APPEARS THE LOW-END SCA GUSTS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN THE SEAS WILL BE UP CLOSE TO 5 FT BY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG FOR TONIGHT AND CARRY IT ON INTO FRI. SCT SHOWERS TODAY AND A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS ARRIVING OVER THE CHILLY WATERS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, OR NEAR ADVISORY, CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR 4-6 FEET AND WINDS COULD GUST 20-25 KNOTS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...O'HARA SHORT TERM...O'HARA LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...ROBERTSON/O'HARA MARINE...ROBERTSON/O'HARA  FXUS61 KPHI 052047 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 347 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY, WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THE GFS INITIALIZATION UPWIND LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB AT 500MB. THE GFS OVERALL LOOKED BETTER AT 850MB WHILE THEY WERE BOTH TOO QUICK WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF COLD AIR AT 925MB, BUT THE CORE OF THE COLDER AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS COLDER THAN EITHER MODEL HAS INITIALIZED. MAYBE PART OF THE REASON FOR SLOWER TRENDING OF SUNDAY'S EVENT? THE GFS WAS TRENDING TOO FAST WITH THE CFP ALREADY AND ITS 6 HR QPF VERIFICATION AREAL EXTENT WAS NOT GOOD IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE BEST FIT IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF, SO WE PLACED MORE OF A HIGHER POP EMPHASIS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE FCST WAA AND MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, AS WELL AS THE STILL WESTWARD LOCATION OF THE 250MB JET, THE BEST FORCING ALOFT IS NORTHWEST. BUT EVEN ALL OF THOSE PIECES DO NOT CONVERGE VERY WELL (NOT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT). WE WILL HAVE IMPULSES OF PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. THIS FIRST WILL CLIP THE NWRN PART OF OUR CWA EARLY, WITH THE NEXT ONE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SLATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WAS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TONIGHT FROM PRESENT LEVELS AND THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH FOR DECEMBER 6TH WILL LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE (EXCEPT MAYBE FAR SE). WE HAVE OPTED TO WEIGH TEMPS MORE HEAVILY TOWARD NAM MOS BECAUSE OF NOT GOING WITH THE GFS FASTER TIMING. WITH A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, FAVOR A SLOWER CFP TIMING. FOG, BECAUSE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND MOST OF OUR CWA GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR, EVEN IF ITS MURKY, WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FOG RELATED HEADLINES AT THE PRESENT. LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN OUR CWA WHERE IT IS STILL FOGGY. THUNDER, THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT SOUTHEAST. OVERALL THUNDER OCCURRENCE IS LESS THAN MODELING WOULD SUGGEST WITH THAT NEXT WAVE. GIVEN THE BETTER FORCING IS REMOVED FROM THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT, WE WILL KEEP IT THUNDER FREE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA ON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING (GIVE OR TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS CENTERED AROUND 11Z ALONG THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY), OUR CWA SHOULD BE BETWEEN IMPULSES FOR A LITTLE WHILE. WE TAPERED DOWN POPS IN THE MORNING, BEFORE RAISING THEM AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN MANY OF THE FORCING MECHANISMS EITHER TOUCH OR ARE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA ONCE AGAIN FAVORING THOSE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. PTYPE ISSUES, WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT "SHOULD" IMPEDE SOME OF THE COLD AIR, STAT GUIDANCE IN GENERAL IS VERIFYING TOO HIGH IN THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE CDFNT. IF ONE LOOKS AT THE THERMAL FIELDS, AS THEY BECOME BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT, THEY SLOW OR STOP. THEN A WAVE OF WAA RIDES ALONG IT. BECAUSE THE GFS IS FARTHER EAST, THIS STALLING AND WAVE RIDING (AS DEPICTED IN THE 925MB FIELDS) IS FARTHER EAST. THE ECMWF AND WRF-NMMB ARE FARTHER WEST. JUDGING WHERE WE WERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, THE MODELING TREND IS SLOWER. SO OUR MENTION OF SLEET DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS IS RATHER LATE AND JUST IN THE POCONOS. BIGGER ISSUES FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA IN THE LONG TERM. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS WERE WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD NAM MOS BECAUSE OF THE CAA TIMING. A DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTINESS IN THE MORNING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, OVERALL WINDS SHOULD NOT BE THAT BRISK BY DECEMBER STANDARDS, ALTHOUGH ONCE IT STARTS RAINING, IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO PLEASANT OUTDOORS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH A BREAK POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A TRACK FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION FROM THESE WAVES WILL AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND WITH THE INFUSION OF COLD AIR, A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR. RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE THROUGH MOST OF THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE, BUT THEN A CHANGEOVER IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON/MONROE/SUSSEX COUNTIES. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER ONE-QUARTER INCH, SO THIS WOULD BE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN COURTESY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH MAY SEE PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT TIME. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON MONDAY, IT WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE, THIS PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS A WINTRY MIXTURE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON MONDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN. OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD HOLD ON THE THE WINTRY MIXTURE LONGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR COULD GET DAMMED UP BEFORE THE WARM SURGE PUSHES THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. THERE STILL WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE HOWEVER UNTIL THE FRONT AND IT'S MOISTURE COMPLETELY PULL AWAY. DRIER WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE 18Z TAFS REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT WITH MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON CLOUDINESS AS BEING THE IMPACTOR. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS STILL LOW CLOUDINESS ABOUNDING AND TO OUR SOUTH. A POCKET OF CLEAR SKIES IS HAVING DIFFICULTY LEAVING NORTHERN MARYLAND AND IS FILLING. WE KEPT OCCASIONAL CIGS AS IFR WITH JUST A NARROW WINDOW OF EXCLUSIVE MVFR LATE. AT THE NORTHWEST TERMINALS CONFIDENCE IS GETTING LOWER BY THE MINUTE ABOUT EVER BECOMING MVFR. SOUTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KTS. FOR THIS EVENING IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS PREVAILING. WE ARE KEEPING SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION. FOR THE OVERNIGHT, CONTINUING IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN MOVING IN AS THE FRONT NEARS. WE WILL CARRY LLWS FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRECEDING THE CFP AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REACH 40 TO 50 KTS AT 2K. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND VFR VSBYS AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU (APPROXIMATELY 09Z-12Z). NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTINESS FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE CFP. THE NEXT SHOT OF OVERRUNNING RAIN SHOULD THEN BRING HIGHER CONFIDENCE MVFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTH AND BECOME SLIGHTLY LIGHTER. FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE AT RDG AND ABE. GUSTY WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AREA ALSO POSSIBLE. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. GUSTY WINDS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR PROBABLE WITH RAIN/WINTRY MIX MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE AS ARE THE SWELLS. THE LLJ IS PREDICTED TO REACH AROUND 50 KTS WHICH WOULD NORMALLY TRANSLATE TO ABOUT 30 KTS PEAK GUSTS. THIS IS WARMER AIR OVER COOLER WATER, SO WE DID LOWER PEAK GUSTS BELOW THIS. THE CORE OF THE JET IS PREDICTED TO BYPASS DELAWARE BAY, SO NO HEADLINES FOR THE BAY. WE WILL CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE MIXING AND THE AVAILABLE TRAFFIC CAMS ARE ONLY SHOWING ISOLATED DENSE FOG. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, OR NEAR ADVISORY, CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SEAS MAY REMAIN NEAR 4-6 FEET AND WINDS COULD GUST 20-25 KNOTS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...GIGI/MIKETTA MARINE...GIGI/MIKETTA  FXUS61 KPHI 060835 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 335 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONTAL MOVE OFF EAST COAST TODAY AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIFT WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE SFC COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE WRN PARTS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BEGINNING TO STIR THINGS UP ENOUGH TO BRING VSBYS UP OUT OF DENSE FOG CRITERIA. A FEW STATIONS MAY STILL BE BELOW ONE-HALF MILE FOR A LITTLE WHILE...BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHER VSBYS SO WE WILL CANCEL THE ADVISORY WITH THE AM PACKAGE. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS A RENEWAL OF PCPN LATER TODAY. POPS WILL DECREASE BACK TO CHC RANGE ACROSS THE SRN AREAS AND THEN RAMP UP LATER. P-TYPE WILL BE RAIN IN 99 PCT OF THE AREA TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS WHERE IP WILL PROBABLY MIX IN BEFORE TONIGHT. THIS TRANSITION WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IS A TRICKY CALL. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH READINGS STARTING IN THE 50S/LOW 60S BEFORE DAWN AND DROPPING IN THE TO THE 30S/LOW 40S (NORTH) BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... THE NEXT WAVE WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A DECENT ROUND OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ WILL BE MARGINAL AND P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND. WE EXPECT THAT IT WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW AND IN BETWEEN A SLEETY MIX AND A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN ALSO. CONFID IN FREEZING RAIN IS LOW...SINCE GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE YET COOLED ENOUGH TO FREEZE MUCH. WE SCALED BACK ZR P-TYPE WORDING TO CHC FOR NOW AND WILL PASS ON ANY ADVISORY. A SLUSHY COATING TO IP/SN WITH UP TO AN INCH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE NRN MOST AREAS. PRECIP ENDS GRADUALLY FROM W TO E AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY BE DONE IN MOST AREAS BY DAWN SAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY WILL HAVE PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR FOR OUR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY ON SATURDAY, BUT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF ANY VORTICITY IMPULSES TO HELP CREATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER DRY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA ON MONDAY, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. THE PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE FIRST OF THE VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE, THIS PRECIPITATION WILL POSSIBLY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIXTURE FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE POSSIBLY CHANGING TO RAIN MONDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN. A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE A SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. OUR NORTHERN ZONES COULD HOLD ON THE THE WINTRY MIXTURE LONGER INTO MONDAY MORNING AS COLD AIR COULD GET DAMMED UP BEFORE THE WARM SURGE PUSHES THROUGH. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY AS COUPLE OF MORE VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. A RETURN OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THICKNESSES DROP ACROSS THE AREA HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY SKIRT TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT WE'LL INCLUDE THOSE AS WE GET CLOSER AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THE VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NRN/ERN AREAS SHORTLY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SRLY/SWRLY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...THEN FROPA WITH WRLY WINDS BECOMING NWRLY BY LATE MORNING. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO THE HIGHER PART OF MVFR OR PERHAPS EVEN LOW ND VFR FOR AWHILE LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS. CONFID IN VFR RETURNING IS RATHER LOW. MORE RAINS ARRIVE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN HEAD BACK TO IFR TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. RAINS WILL PROBABLY MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY/NERLY OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/MVFR PROBABLE WITH RAIN/WINTRY MIX SUNDAY-MONDAY. POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR EARLY. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY W-NW WINDS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE APPROACHING SCA CRITERIA. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE LINGERING AROUND 4 FT AND THE WIND GUSTS ARE PICKING UP WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. I WILL LEAVE THE SCA FLAG IN PLACE...SINCE HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR LATER THIS MORNING. THE FLAG IS A RATHER LOW-END EVENT AT BEST AND COULD BE TAKEN DOWN BEFORE THE 6PM EXPIRATION. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, OR NEAR ADVISORY, CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, BEFORE A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY-TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, OR NEAR ADVISORY, CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...O'HARA SHORT TERM...O'HARA LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...ROBERTSON/O'HARA MARINE...ROBERTSON/O'HARA  FXUS61 KPHI 181858 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 258 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER AT 500MB, BOTH THE WRF AND GFS ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND THE GFS BETTER AT 925MB. OVERALL NOT THAT GREAT A DIFFERENCE TO SHOW MODELING IMPACT DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. NO HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT. WE DID ADD SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE PINE BARRENS. DEW POINTS AND UNCERTAINTIES TO CLOUD THICKNESSES SHOULD BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD FROST. THE STRATOCU LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING OFFSHORE. COUPLED WITH LOWERING RAP FCST RH LEVELS AT THAT LEVEL TELL US THAT WHAT IS LEFT OF THOSE CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST SHOULD DRIFT OFFSHORE AND HAVE TO FIGHT AN INCREASINGLY WRLY FLOW TO ADVECT BACK. MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT IS CIRRUS BASED. THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS STRATOCU FROM THE APPROACHING CDFNT LATER TONIGHT. OVERALL COVERAGE FROM THEM NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT, SO IF THE CIRRUS THICKNESS WANES, WE MAY BE TOO HIGH WITH MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE RESPONDED UPWARD IN THE EAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW, SO WE DO HAVE A MUCH HIGHER FLOOR THAN WE HAVE HAD THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS FOR MIN TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CLOSING LOW IN DELMARVA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE CUT-OFF FOR ANY CLOUDINESS FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST SYSTEM. BY THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DELMARVA AND BE CIRRUS. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS VERY DRY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT PREDICTED TO BE REACHED. WE SIDED CLOSER TO 850MB FULL SUN MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THAN THE COLDER 925S GIVEN THE PREDICTED MIXING. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE AND ALSO TOWARD THE FULL SUN SOUNDING FCST MACROS. THE BETTER MIXING WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A BREEZIER DAY, BUT NOT THAT FAR FROM TYPICAL FOR APRIL. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH GETS STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HELPS TO PUSH THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. ON MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO WEAKEN, BUT REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ON MONDAY NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COLD FRONT STAYS TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AND PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY, NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY. THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WE WON'T MENTION ANY THUNDER AS THE BEST CAPE AND LI'S ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT COASTAL AIRPORTS, BUT THE TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION IS CONTINUING. ALL OTHER TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS, NO CIG IS PREDICTED BELOW CIRRUS LEVEL. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. SEA BREEZE FRONT NOT APPARENT ON OUR 88D. TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IT TO FORM AS IT SHOULD MELD WITHIN THE GENERAL VEERING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, A CIRRUS DECK OF CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT IF THERE IS ANY WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG, CONFIDENCE OF IT OCCURRING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH, VERY RURAL AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME TOWARD MORNING. SATURDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WITH A BRISKER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT ABOUT GUSTINESS, MAY END UP BEING A SUSTAINED 10 TO 15 KT DAY. ANY SEA BREEZE FRONT WOULD FORM LATE IN THE DAY AND BE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLEAR SKIES PREDICTED. OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE'LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS. MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... WE WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY TOO LOW, ALTHOUGH THE GAP IS CLOSING. EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY BE AN UP THE DELAWARE BAY WIND MAX, OTHERWISE WINDS TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECEDING THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY, WINDS SHOULD START INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE BETTER MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE ON LAND. SEAS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... IN NJ AND PA FINE FUELS MOISTURE HAVE FALLEN WITHIN RED FLAG CRITERIA AND MEAN RH(S) ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT. BUT WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 MPH. WE WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. IN DE AND MD, THE POTENTIAL AND CRITERIA FOR STRONGER WINDS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE REACHED PLUS THE AFTN RH LEVELS MAY ALSO BE MORE MARGINAL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...GIGI/KRUZDLO MARINE...GIGI/KRUZDLO FIRE WEATHER...GIGI  FXUS61 KPHI 251154 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 654 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RUSHING SOUTHEAST DOWN TO NEAR ROUTE 80 AT DAYBREAK AND WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR'EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY. OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD IS ALL SNOW. DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE HWO/WSW PRODUCTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... **MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING PHLLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND** 500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED; NEAR NORMAL FRI, CHILLING AGAIN SATURDAY. FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY. THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25 WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY. THE DAILIES... MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES. MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT. MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF. THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF AND GFS BLEND. MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE. BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW WOULD MISS TO THE EAST. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF" CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY. WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL. TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE. OUTLOOK... MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE. PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL AS DRIFTING. TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE: THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. && .MARINE... TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NJZ021>025. DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DEZ001. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DEZ002>004. MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MDZ008. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ANZ450>453. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431- 454-455. GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG NEAR TERM...HEAVENER SHORT TERM...HEAVENER LONG TERM...DRAG 654 AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 654 MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 654 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  FXUS61 KPHI 120931 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 431 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRAG ITS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THE LOW WILL REFORM NEAR CAPE COD AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY ON ITS SEAWARD DEPARTURE TONIGHT. A PIECE OF AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL INTENSIFY EXPLOSIVELY AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN REACH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND SHOULD PASS CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON ITS WAY TO NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT IS DIVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE, WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN INITIAL ROUND IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIAN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONT, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. WE EXPECT MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW, ALTHOUGH, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH FOR THE I-95/I-295 CORRIDOR MAY WARM UP ENOUGH EARLY IN THE DAY THAT ANY SHOWERS MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE AT TIMES. IN FACT, THESE AREAS MAY BRIEFLY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY IN THE 30S. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SHOULD START GUSTING 20-30 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BE EVEN STRONGER TONIGHT. OVERALL WE HAVE LOW SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO NOT EVERYONE EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW TODAY BECAUSE OF THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. SOME AREAS MAY ONLY GET A LIGHT COATING, WHILE OTHER AREAS, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS WHERE SNOWFALL IS MORE LIKELY, MAY GET AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... ANY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS, THE SHORT WAVE PASSES THROUGH, AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND BEGIN TO PULL IN MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING IN THE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40 MPH RANGE. IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE, SO NO WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD, AND COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL CREATE LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE AREA. EVERYONE WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST MINUS SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTH WILL SEE EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS, WITH CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY SEEING -15 TO -20 WIND CHILL VALUES. THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT WITH RESPECT TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING LEVEL COLD AND STRONG, POSSIBLY HIGH WIND IS STILL ON OR CLOSE TO SCHEDULE FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH BETTER ON AREA WATERS WITH POSSIBLE STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS, MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AND MAYBE BLOWOUT TIDES. THE MOST UNCERTAIN ELEMENT IS THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD. THE TRIGGERING CLOSED LOW HAS JUST ENTERED CANADA AND WILL INITIATE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT PASSES OUR CWA. THE ATTENDANT DEEPENING LOW WILL FORM A NORLUN TROF WHICH WILL BE A CONCENTRATED BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW. THIS FEATURE DEPENDS ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE CLOSED AND SURFACE LOW. THE 00Z MODEL RUN SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTHEAST WITH THIS FEATURE TO EITHER NEW ENGLAND OR LONG ISLAND/NYC. GIVEN HOW DIFFICULT ITS BEEN TO FORECAST SNOW THIS WINTER WITH THE NEVER ENDING PARADE OF MILLER B LOWS, ITS TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL NOT OCCUR IN OUR AREA. OUR PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS HAVE 1-2" SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE/I195 CORRIDOR AND 2-5" NORTH OF THESE CORRIDORS. THERE IS ANOTHER MOISTURE RICHER CONVENTIONAL LOW PREDICTED TO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT THE START. THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING A CHANGE TO NON-SNOW IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA, BUT THIS IS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO KNOW FOR SURE IF OR HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE. FRIDAY...AFTER A VERY COLD START, CONDITIONS WILL RELATIVELY IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH. SKIES SHOULD START MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. CONTINUING THE RUNNING THEME (UNTIL IT PROVES US WRONG) THAT STAT GUIDANCE WILL BE TOO LOW WITH MAX TEMPS, WE WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THEM. FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. IN FACT, THEY MAY RISE TOWARD MORNING. THIS GETS TRICKY BECAUSE OF SNOW COVER NORTH AND CLOUD THICKNESS, SO HERE WE STAYED CLOSER TO HOURLY STAT GUIDANCE. ON SATURDAY, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT HAS SHOWN A TREND AT WARMING THE COASTAL PLAIN FURTHER. IN FACT PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS ARE NOW CREEPING ABOVE 0C. IN REALITY THIS IS A BRIEF RESPITE TO THE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LIKELY POPS IN SNOW ARE BROUGHT TO THE I95 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. ONE TO TWO INCHES EXPECTED BY NIGHTFALL ONCE WE GET INTO NORTHERN NJ AS WELL AS FROM THE POCONOS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PHL SUBURBS. THEN ON SATURDAY EVENING, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW BURST, AS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS BRING PREDICTED TOTAL TOTALS TO 45-55 AND INDICATE SLANTWISE (AT SEVERAL LEVELS) CONVECTION. THERE IS PREDICTED OMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION, MORE SO NORTH THAN SOUTH. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY NORLUN TROF FORMATION WHICH WOULD PROLONG THE SNOW. THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES, BUT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, DECENT SNOW RATIOS AND THE TRIED BUT TRUE EXPRESSION THAT THERE IS ALWAYS A SURPRISE UNDER A CLOSED LOW. WE WERE BULLISH BEYOND THE MODEL PREDICTED QPF WITH THE SNOW. RIGHT NOW THE HEAVIER SNOW IS PREDICTED TO PRECEDE THE INCREASING WINDS WHICH SHOULD START CRANKING TOWARD MORNING. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BOOMING LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH IS ABOUT 20 MB TIGHTER THAN TONIGHT'S NEAR ADVISORY WIND EVENT. GIVEN A STATUS QUO IN MODELING PROJECTIONS, WE WOULD EASILY GET INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND POSSIBLY REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY IN DELMARVA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. COUPLED WITH MIN TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO OR CLOSE TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS, ITS NOT A WELCOME COMBINATION FOR POWER OUTAGES. SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG WINDS, AND VERY UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGHEST WINDS FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD LIKELY OCCUR BY THE CONCLUSION OF SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WE WILL BE RIVALING RECORD LOWS FOR THE DAY. WINDS WILL STILL BE A FACTOR WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY/WARNING LEVELS POSSIBLY REACHED. AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL THEN START MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. WE DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH BEYOND DAY 5 SYSTEMS THIS WINTER TO DIVERT MUCH FROM CONTINUITY OR CLIMATOLOGY. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE STARTING OFF THE DAY AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING, EXCEPT MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ABE/RDG AND MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR MANY AREAS, WITH RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED IN FOR SOUTHERN AREAS IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY WHERE SHOWERS DO ACTUALLY AFFECT THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEN IN FOR THE AFTERNOON YET SINCE WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT OF THEM OCCURRING JUST YET. AGAIN, IF SHOWERS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, THEY COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CONDITIONS. WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE 30S THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING AS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT PROGRESS. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW COULD ONCE AGAIN REDUCE CONDITIONS IN THE MVFR OR IFR CATEGORY. INCREASINGLY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...VFR BUT VERY WINDY (GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 KNOTS) AND VERY VERY COLD. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR, WITH NW WINDS DECREASING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONTINUED VERY VERY COLD. && .MARINE... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE. GALE FORCE WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY, BUT SINCE WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY THIS EVENING, WE HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GO WITH ONLY THE GALE WARNING HEADLINE. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, WE EXPECT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP, SO WE'VE ALSO ISSUED A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY STARTING THIS EVENING AS WELL. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS DECREASING TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY THE EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...SW WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS COULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES EAST OF THE AREA WATERS. WIND GUSTS DECREASING TO GALES ON THE OCEAN AND SMALL CRAFT ON THE BAY BY THE END OF SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE. MONDAY...GALE FORCE GUSTS DECREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ON THE OCEAN AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS DECREASING TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON DELAWARE BAY. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ETSS IS NOW SHOWING (0-96 HRS) THE LOW WATER EVENT FOR SUNDAYS LOW TIDE CYCLES. THIS SHOULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT BLOWOUT TIDE EVENT, ESPECIALLY IF NW GUSTS TO 45 KT OCCUR FROM PHL TO LEWES. THIS SHOULD BECOME A 2 OR 3 LOW TIDE CYCLE EVENT OF REPEATED LOW WATER DUE TO HUGE ENVELOPE OF STRONG NW FLOW SUNDAY. HERE ARE THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE AT KEY LOCATIONS AND FIGURE LOW WATER TO OCCUR WITHIN 45 MINUTES EITHER SIDE OF THE LOW TIDE. WHILE THIS WONT BE AN EXTREME BLOW OUT TIDE, IT COULD RUN HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT BELOW THE -1.8 MLLW TIDE THRESHOLD FOR NOTIFICATION TO MARINERS. IT WOULD BE WORSE IF WE WERE IN AN ASTRONOMICALLY LARGER CHANGE BETWEEN LOW AND HIGH TIDES. LOW TIDE AT LEWES...REPRESENTING MUCH OF THE THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS 2/15 1122AM 0.0 MLLW 2/15 1125PM -0.34 MLLW 2/16 1217PM -0.33 MLLW (LEAST LIKELY TO REACH LOW WATER THRESHOLD?) LOW TIDE AT REEDY POINT 2/15 144 AM -0.05 MLLW 2/15 241 PM 0.01 MLLW 2/16 247 AM -0.25 MLLW LOW TIDE AT PHL 2/15 429 AM -0.3 MLLW 2/15 518 PM -0.16 MLLW 2/16 528 AM -0.43 MLLW && .CLIMATE... AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF RECORD AT ALL OUR CLIMATE SITES MONDAY MORNING 2/16 EXCEPT KMPO AND KABE. THOSE RECORD LOWS FOR THE 16TH FOLLOW KACY 3 ABOVE 1888, 1875 KPHL 2 ABOVE 1888 KILG 2 ABOVE 1943 KTTN 1 ABOVE 1888 KGED 10 ABOVE 1987 (SHORTER PERIOD OF RECORD DATING BACK ONLY TO 1948) KRDG 0 1904 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ001. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI/HEAVENER NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...GIGI AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG CLIMATE...DRAG  FXUS61 KPHI 140805 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 405 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE FRONT IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY. IT STALLS IN VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY FOLLOW FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECTS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITTING ACROSS THE DELMARVA WHERE WE ARE SEEING SEVERAL AREAS OF SCATTERED OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER POP-UP EARLY THIS MORNING. PWATS ARE STILL SITTING AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH MORE MODIFICATION EXPECTED AS THE DAY WARES ON. A QUICK AND HEAVY DOWNPOUR IS EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS BEFORE WE DRY OUT SOMEWHAT LATER THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STABILIZER TO PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...KIND OF COUNTER-INTUITIVE. THE NCAR SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE, ALONG WITH OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS KEEP THE SURFACE AND MLCAPE VALUES RATHER BENIGN TODAY. THE ONLY CAVEAT WOULD BE ACROSS OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES THAT SHOULD BE SOME OF THE FIRST AREAS TO REALLY HEAT UP AS THE FRONT LIFTS THROUGH AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMMENCES..PUMPING IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INCREASING POPS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD FROM WEST TO EAST...FOLLOWING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A TAD COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MORE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. USED A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE WARMER MAV. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO BETTER DEFINE THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN SO WE FOREGO ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS OUR CONCERNS IN THE HWO. THIS APPEARS TO BE A DECENT SETUP, IT NEARLY LOOKS LIKE A MADDOX FRONTAL FLASH FLOOD SCENARIO. PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB TOWARDS 2+ INCHES BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. 1-HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THIS REGION AND ANY DAYTIME SHOWERS WILL HELP TO PRIME THE REGION EVEN FURTHER. UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE PLACING US IN THE LEFT EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGIONS OF A DOUBLE JET STREAK STRUCTURE. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE POCONOS. WARM CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES TOWARDS 13000 FEET LATE TONIGHT...THIS IS INDICATIVE OF VERY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WPC HAS INCLUDED OUR NORTHERN TIER IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCEEDING OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. ALL THAT BEING SAID WE CARRY THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB: A STAUNCH PLUS 1 TO 2 SD RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND, ONLY WEAKENING SLIGHTLY LATE THIS WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE PASSES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE THE DYNAMICS HERE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A TEXAS SHORT WAVE THAT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS PATTERN FAVORS PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN OUR AREA WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RING OF FIRE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES: THE MONTH THROUGH THE 12TH IS NOW NEAR NORMAL AND WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. CALENDAR DAILY DEPARTURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY THEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A 1 OR 2 DAY COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND FRIDAY. FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/14 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY - TUESDAY, 00Z/14 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/14 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE DAILIES... MONDAY...ONGOING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND N OF I-78, PROBABLY QUITS FOR A WHILE DURING FORENOON BEFORE REFIRING LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY MORE IN THE SOUTH FROM KPHL LATITUDE SOUTHWARD. SOME OF THE STORMS MONDAY COULD BE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING IN NARROW SWATHS OF REAL ESTATE AND ALSO YIELD POCKETS OF WET MICROBURST WIND DAMAGE. BEST CHC FOR FF IN THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78. PLEASE SEE SWODY2 AND WPC D2 AVG QPF. WIDESPREAD 1400J MLCAPE. RATHER LARGE BULK SHEAR DURING THE MORNING IN THE NORTH. SREF PWAT 2.15 INCHES, 2 TO 3 SD ABOVE NORMAL. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. TUESDAY...LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHERN PART OF THE FCST AREA. AGAIN 1200J MLCAPE BUT LESS EXTENSIVE AND SOUTH OF I-78. SREF PWAT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL (STILL AROUND 2 INCHES) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS WITH A WINDSHIFT TO NW LATE IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY DRY MOST OF THE DAY WITH WAA SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOPING DELMARVA AND S CENTRAL PA LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERSPREADING OUR AREA AT NIGHT. PWAT 1SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DELMARVA DAYTIME OVERSPREADING NORTHEASTWARD AT NIGHT. LIGHT WIND. CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. THURSDAY...MODELED MLCAPE INCREASED BY TWO TIMES TO 1200J NOW FOR THE DELMARVA. LOOKS RATHER UNSTABLE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS LARGE. PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR. 500MB WINDS 50 KT SOUTHERN PA. PWAT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL. WEST WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 20 MPH OR LESS. CONFIDENCE: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRY WITH THE ESSENTIALLY QSTRY FRONT IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR FOR A SHORT TIME. CONFIDENCE: ONLY AVERAGE. SATURDAY...GFS BUILDS QUITE A BIT OF MLCAPE IN CENTRAL PA AND THE ECMWF IS ROBUST FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY QPF AND POSSIBLE SVR STORMS. OUR POPS MAY BE 30 PCT TOO LOW. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE SINCE AM THINKING A WETTER SCENARIO THAN WHAT HAVE FCST. THIS IS A PATTERN WHEN THE FORECAST HAS RAIN PROBABILITIES ALMOST EVERY PERIOD. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION THE MAJORITY OF HOURS WILL BE RAINFREE ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, THERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISES HERE REGARDING WHAT YOU MIGHT ENCOUNTER IN TERMS OF SHORT DURATION DELUGES AND A FEW POCKETS OF WET MICROBURST DAMAGE. IT WONT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE "ISOLATED" STORM TOTALS OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES BY THE END OF SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS THIS WEEK OF 1 INCH OR GREATER. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS MORNING...VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A LINE FROM ILG-MIV WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY. TODAY - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR/IFR BY TONIGHT. WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT THROUGH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TOUCHES OFF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE RDG/ABE WITH THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. EVEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS AND WILL QUICKLY DROP VSBYS INTO THE IFR RANGE. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CONFIDENCE ON THE FORECAST BELOW IS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH ONLY THE DETAILS/TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS TO BE RESOLVED. LEAST CONFIDENT IS THE RISK FOR ST/FOG TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TO START THE DAY. WSW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE ENDING EARLY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN REDEVELOPING MIDDAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. DIMINISHING SW TO WEST WIND GUSTS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG, ESPECIALLY LEHIGH VALLEY (KABE) INTO NORTHWEST NJ. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR SOUTH WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG. THE NORTH PART OF OUR AREA FROM NEAR KABE/KRDG NORTHWARD HAS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD IFR IN SHOWERS/TSTMS /ST/FOG DURING THE 06Z-16Z/18 TIME FRAME. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOME GUSTY WESTERLY TO 20 KT THURSDAY. && .MARINE... TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE WITH THEIR 2-3 FEET SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER BRIEF MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SHORT FUSE CONVECTIVE GUSTS OF 30-40 KT MONDAY, TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. TIMING AND LOCATIONS TBD. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE FORECAST WILL PROBABLY BE LOW BUT WE ARE CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE UNDERLYING LONG PERIOD (11 SECOND) EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL. FOR NOW ITS NOT DOMINANT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG 405 NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 405 SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 405 LONG TERM...DRAG 405 AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 405 MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 405 RIP CURRENTS...405 CLIMATE...405  FXUS61 KPHI 080323 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1123 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS OUR REGION MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND DELAWARE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE A SHORTER FOG EVENT THAN MOST AS THE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SCATTER OUT THE FOG. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE MORNING. DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS AND A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY ACROSS THE SRN AREAS...BUT EVEN THERE THE CHCS FOR PRECIP ARE ONLY IN THE SLGT CHC OR VERY LOW CHC RANGE ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THESE PERIODS. THE UPPER AIR PATTER WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT NEXT WEEK. A SFC LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR THE TUE- THU PERIODS ATTM...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN- FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL...BUT AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MID 70S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND THE DELMARVA REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO 50 PCT CHC FOR NOW...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEARBY OFFICES. THE UPPER LOW MAY SWIRL ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SHOWERY WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE THEN....STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THESE DEVELOPMENTS HOWEVER. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WERE A BIT MORE VARIABLE FURTHER INLAND. THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAD PUSHED SOME LOW CLOUDS BACK ONSHORE. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS WORKED FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AS FAR WEST AS KMIV TO KVAY AS OF 03Z. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT TRENDS AND THE N AMERICA RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM (NARRE) IFR PROBABILITIES EXPECT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH KPNE AND KTTN BY 06Z. FOR NOW, HAVE NOT MENTIONED LOW CLOUDS AT KPHL AND KILG AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS LOW CLOUD BANK APPEARS TO BE ERODING AS IT MOVES FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VERY CLOSELY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 09 AND 15Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KNOTS, WITH A OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...VFR IN GENERAL. SCT SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY POORER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. && .MARINE... FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. ONCE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE, THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. THUS HAVE ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 08 AM EDT. FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE FOG REACHING THAT FAR SOUTH, SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION TO PREVENT WINDS FROM GUSTING FURTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS WITHIN THE FIRST FEW MILES, AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GUSTY 25-30 KNOTS. ESPECIALLY FOR DELAWARE BAY AND BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WE'VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS ON THE OCEAN...MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING WITH MINOR FLOODING UNDERWAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE, DELAWARE BEACHES, AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WHERE IT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT, AND HAVE ADDED THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER SOUTH OF THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE AREA. WE HAVE LEFT OUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER NORTH OF THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE AREA FOR NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN THAT AREA WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. TIDAL LEVELS ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE MARYLAND COUNTIES MAY APPROACH AND GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014- 020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ016. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430- 431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO/O'HARA NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...O'HARA AVIATION...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON/O'HARA MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/O'HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  FXUS61 KPHI 290829 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 429 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to push further off the Middle Atlantic coast through tonight. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move along the southeastern United States coast over the next several days. Moisture from this system will move northward and into our area today and Monday. High pressure will build towards the region Tuesday, remaining to our north through Thursday. A cold front will move through the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early this morning...patchy dense fog has formed where it rained ydy along and north of I-80. otherwise, any patchy fog elsewhere should be shallower and less dense and all of this dissipates between 6 and 7 am. Today...Issuing SPS at about 530 am for heat hazard n of I-78. Still very warm but with lower dewpoints into midday, not quite as uncomfortable...however, high dewpoints will be returning from south to north during the mid and late afternoon hours with morning southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph turning more southerly. It will be a mostly sunny morning with increasing cirrus during the afternoon. Then a wall of water via cloud cover (PWAT rising from .5" now over the Delmarva to 2" by 00z this evening) starts advancing nwd through the Delmarva late afternoon with showers, some heavy with possible FLS nuisance flooding, possibly also a thunderstorm. Was conservative on the northward advance. May need to update timing in the 630 AM ESTF. Max temps...again well above normal...ranging from 7F above normal south to as much as 16F above normal north where lower 90s expected again in NNJ and ne PA. Otherwise mid to upper 80s Delmarva...PHL 88, to around 90-93F along and north of I-78 (Lehigh Valley ewd through WRI-MMU). NAM BL temps have been increasing on recent cycles. These max temps for the fourth consecutive day are significantly above all other avbl MOS guidance/blends/bc adjusts (except some ecmwf localized guidance). The heat index will again rise to between 90-95F I-78 north and will SPS at 530 AM. This also should mean a 4th consec day of 90F at KABE and KWRI and a possible official heat wave (see definition in CLI section) for KRDG which is on the margin for 90F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... Deep layer moisture, PWAT up to 2 inches, in part from Tropical Storm Bonnie is forecast to move across the area with widespread showers and isolated T-storms. General lift is aided as represented by the rrq of an upper level 80 kt 250MB jet core...over southern Ontario. A sfc boundary will focus the heaviest rain, in the light northerly flow along a forming sfc wind shift. A 30 kt 700mb speed max may initially focus heaviest rain near Chesapeake Bay-E Pa Sunday evening, then it appears the 850 southerly inflow will shift the axis of excessive rain potential somewhere just to the east of I95 by Monday morning. Potential exists for a couple of narrow swaths of 3-4" rains by 12z Monday...more details possible late today. no flash flood watch attm but am concerned about the I95 corridor in the 03z-12z time frame. Mild nighttime mins...10 to 15F above normal. Light southerly wind with a shift to northerly near a developing sfc convergence zone around or just east of I-95 late tonight. Will probably post daily record rainfalls as believed appropriate in the CLI section by 5 am. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Moisture from Tropical Storm Bonnie will push northward and we will continue to see showers and some thunderstorms on Monday. PWATS remain high, around 2 inches in some areas, so expect some of the showers to be fairly heavy, especially during Monday morning. Memorial Day continues to look like a washout across the region. The pops will start to drop from northwest to southeast but it looks like we will continue to see some showers continuing into Monday evening. Rain will linger longest over our southeastern areas, likely ending by late Monday night. With heavy rain possible, we will need to monitor the flash flooding potential. As mentioned before, the PWATS are 1.5 to just over 2 inches across the region. Some heavy showers and thunderstorms could drop one to two inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible. We will continue to mention the flash flood threat in the HWO. The guidance shows some pretty decent differences in how the remnants of Bonnie are handled. The GFS is a bit dryer and keeps the low to the south of the area and eventually dissipates it near the Carolina coast. The ECMWF keeps the low spinning over the Carolina coast with a gradual push to the northeast, moving it up the Mid- Atlantic coast through the week. The ECMWF solution would keep us in a cloudier set up and a wetter pattern with the chance for the remnant moisture to make its way into the region for Tuesday through Friday, with the best chances across our south and east zones. With the uncertainty of where and when Bonnie will track north/northeast, we have upped the cloud cover through the week and introduced some slight chance/low chance pops. Again, the best chances will remain across southern New Jersey and the Delmarva. A low pressure system will arrive from the west and drag a cold front through the region over the weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...Generally VFR. Light south wind. Today after 12z...VFR with a south-southwest wind gusty to 15 kt midday. Then MVFR or IFR conds in showers/iso tstms spread north through the Delmarva into southern NJ and the Philadelphia late this afternoon-evening. Please see the TAFS for more timing details. No thunder in the TAF since uncertain where best chance of thunder and whether much if any thunder occurs at night in tropical pwat. Tonight...MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds, fog, and heavy showers, maybe isolated tstms. Sustained winds mostly under 10 kt with a convergence zone of south wind along the coast while a light north wind should develop near I-95 late at night. OUTLOOK... Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions in rain, fog, and thunderstorms affect the terminals. Conditions may drop below IFR at times due to heavy rain. Light winds early will become south to southwest around 10 knots or less. Higher gusts possible in showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Westerly winds on Tuesday will become more easterly on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will generally be around 10 knots or less with gusts up to 15 knots. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are anticipated through tonight although dense fog may become a marine hazard toward dawn Monday on the Atlantic waters where ssts are near 60F and the dewpoints should be rising above the SST Monday morning. OUTLOOK... Monday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters. Fog is possible in the early morning and again overnight. Waves may start to build in response to Tropical Storm Bonnie but we expect them to remain below 5 feet at this time. However, confidence is not high that we will see much affect until Bonnie moves north of the Carolinas. Tuesday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters. && .HYDROLOGY... There is potential for heavy rain and localized flooding from tonight through Monday. This is due to an influx of tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Bonnie. PWATs are forecast to be near 2 inches, well above normal, especially for late May. Depending on how the heavier showers and t-storms set up, isolated locations could easily receive 4 inches or more of rainfall. This may result in localized flooding. The potential for heavy rain was added to the forecast. For now please use a combination of the WPC and MARFC qpf fcsts. as it stands now...general 1-2" is expected across the forecast area with isolated 4+, mainly between 21z today and 21z Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record rainfalls that have a chance of exceedance, if heavy showers can persist for 1 to 2 hours. Note, splitting amounts between two days lowers the chance of occurrence. We wont look at monthly rankings until sometime Monday (if time) but there is a good chance a couple of locations will increase to a top 10 ranking for the month of May. Today KGED 1.62 in 1990 por 1948 Monday ACY 3.07 1984 por 1874 PHL 1.74 1908 por 1872 ILG 1.10 1983 por 1894 ABE 1.68 1968 por 1922 TTN 1.62 1912 por 1865 GED 2.04 1984 por 1948 RDG 2.92 1904 por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record daily rainfall) MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901 Record max temps today appear less vulnerable today than yesterday with only Mount Poconos 89F in 1911 being threatened. Right now we KMPO projected for 87F. You probably saw the near records yesterday at KMPO (-1), KABE (-1), KRDG (-2). Daytime max temp guidance continues to be significantly under forecast across PA/NJ for the past 3 days, especially by Super and National blends. We are better off in these sunny non-marine influenced summerlike regimes using the latest operational guidance as a starting point and modifying this upward by adding 4F to the 18z ECMWF 2m temps. The GFS 2m temperature fcsts have also been biased low, in part because of too much low lvl moisture. Also a note about heat waves: here in the northeast USA, we tend to stay close to the AMS glossary of Meteorology definition of a heat wave and as follows: In 1900, A.T Burrows more rigidly defined a 'hot wave' as a spell of three or more days on each of which the maximum shade temperature reaches or exceeds 90F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Drag 429 Short Term...Drag 429 Long Term...Meola Aviation...Drag/Meola 429 Marine...Drag/Meola 429 Hydrology...429 Climate...429  FXUS61 KPHI 300814 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 414 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area today. A cold front will then cross the area Tuesday followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide across the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward through the region early this morning. Rainfall amounts overnight have generally been around 1 to 2 inches. However, with heavy rain still moving through, locally higher amounts remain possible. For more information on any flood threat or rainfall amounts, please see our PNS and FLS products. Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to weaken as it moves slowly along the South Carolina coast early this morning. Tropical moisture associated with Bonnie continues to push northward towards our area. As Bonnie weakens and moves east, the moisture plume that has been feeding into our area will also start to push east. While we will still have showers and some isolated thunderstorms around through the day today, the latest model guidance shows that the best chances will remain along I-95 and east with out western areas starting to dry out. While it won't be a steady and constant rain all day long, there will extensive cloud cover across the region and in areas where it does rain or thunderstorms develop, we could still see some heavy rain fall. Fog continues to remain a concern along the coast. While the rain moving through will eventually help to dissipate the fog, we will also need the winds to turn more to the west and moving offshore. Fog should start to clear out by late morning/early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... For the most part, the rain should be ending across the region. Areas to the east of I-95 may still see some showers into the evening but the threat of thunder looks like it will have ended. With Bonnie not moving and remaining to our south, we likely won't fully clear out and shower chances will continue across out southern and eastern areas overnight. Expect showers to end by late tonight/early Tuesday. Fog may once again form across the region overnight. Cloud cover will remain across the region with some possible clearing over our northwestern areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Due to ongoing weather operations, the long term portion of the forecast has not yet been completed. A new forecast and discussion should be available toward 6 am. High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most. The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...mainly MVFR/IFR conditions continue across the region. Some breaks in the rain have allowed for conditions to briefly return to VFR but this is not expected to be sustained through the rest of the night. Additional rain continues to develop to the south of the area and will push northward. Some isolated thunder is noted over the western shore of Maryland. However, confidence in any thunderstorms impacting the terminals remains low. Winds are generally out of the south but are becoming light and variable at some terminals. Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning along with times of heavy showers and some thunder, then the main area of showers/thunder shift toward the coast in the afternoon. The lower conditions last the longest at KACY to KMIV, with possible improvement in the afternoon to VFR mostly at KABE and KRDG. Patchy fog is possible at the terminals Monday night. South to southwest winds mostly in the 5-10 knot range. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed. Thu- Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct showers/tstms. && .MARINE... We have extended the time for the Dense Fog Advisory until 2 pm today. We have also added in the remaining zones on the ocean, also in effect until 2 pm. With the water temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dewpoints in the 70s, fog is expected to continue across the waters through this afternoon. South winds remain light across the waters with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through today. Seas will start to build but are expected to remain below 5 feet. The far eastern portions of our ocean zones may near 5 feet later today but are expected to remain below. OUTLOOK... Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri. && .CLIMATE... Daily record rainfalls that have a chance of exceedance, if heavy showers can persist for 1 to 2 hours. Note, splitting amounts between two days lowers the chance of a single day record event occurrence. There is a good chance several long term climate sites will increase to a top 10 ranking for the month of May in our CWA. PHL ACY AND ILG only need an inch of rain these last 3 days of the month to rank as a top 10 wettest month of May. Monday ACY 3.07 1984 por 1874 PHL 1.74 1908 por 1872 ILG 1.10 1983 por 1894 ABE 1.68 1968 por 1922 TTN 1.62 1912 por 1865 GED 2.04 1984 por 1948 RDG 2.92 1904 por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record daily rainfall) MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse/Meola/O'Hara Near Term...Meola Short Term...Meola Long Term...O'Hara Aviation...Gorse/Meola/O'Hara Marine...Meola/O'Hara Climate...  FXUS61 KPHI 040051 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 851 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will continue to weaken as it drifts eastward toward the New England coast tonight and offshore on Tuesday. High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes will build southwestward down the eastern seaboard during midweek and remain over the area through the end of the work week. Hurricane Matthew is forecast to track northward along or just off of the Southeast coast late this week before moving either farther up the East coast or out to sea. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... An upper-level trough, the weakening of the pesky weekend closed low, will swing across the region tonight. Some showers developed earlier with the daytime heating and increased instability, but the showers have mostly ended across the area. A few linger far NE adjacent to OKX's CWA. We issued a short term FLS earlier with a few slow moving showers dropping higher rainfall across nrn Cape May county. As the the upper-level trough starts to shift offshore toward daybreak, a ridge to the west will build. There will be some subsidence and therefore the clouds should thin out across much of the area for awhile. As the aforementioned ridge builds from the west, strengthening surface high pressure across New England will build southward. This will result in a surge of northeasterly winds starting toward daybreak. As this occurs, low-level moistening is forecast to take place which should result in some low clouds developing from the ocean. The extent of this is of some lower confidence, however it appears more likely closer to the coast. As a result, we increased the sky cover late. If the low clouds do not occur prior to daybreak, then some fog may develop (especially across the western zones). It appears that the depth of the low- level moist layer looks shallow and it may not arrive until daybreak for most, however this could result in patchy drizzle or sprinkles. For now, included a slight chance POP for a shower toward morning mainly across the eastern and southern areas with the incoming northeasterly surge. Added patchy fog in the grids for the overnight period, probably will be mostly across srn nj and delmarva. As for the low temperatures, we used mostly a blend of MOS and continuity. The hourly grids were adjusted with the latest obs, then the LAMP/LAV guidance was blended in through this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The upper air pattern is an amplifying one with a negatively- tilted trough across the Plains. This drives downstream ridging, which moves across much of the East during the course of Tuesday. This ridge aloft allows surface high pressure to strengthen from New England to the Canadian Maritimes, however it extends down into the northern Mid Atlantic region. This will result in a northeasterly low-level flow, which is initially moist however then some drying is expected to work in. As this surge occurs in the morning, some lower clouds are anticipated. This should lift and thin though especially across the northern areas as some additional subsidence occurs and some drying tries to work in from the north-northeast. As a result, we carried a lot of clouds for much of the area to start, then indicated some improvement. While some drizzle/sprinkles early may occur, the duration may be rather short regarding the low-level moist layer. As a result, we just carried slight chance POPs for a few possible showers mainly south and east of Philadelphia in the morning. As for the high temperatures, took a MOS blend but then adjusted these down a little especially for the eastern areas given an onshore flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure centered over New England-Canadian Maritimes will ridge south-southwestward down the eastern seaboard through the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile, the upper pattern will feature shortwave ridging over the eastern U.S. However, a trailing piece of energy positioned near the base of the mid-level trough axis that was/is associated with the previous cutoff low may still lag back to the southwest near the Delmarva coastline early in the period. Therefore, cannot rule out a few light showers and sprinkles Tuesday night or Wednesday near the coast; otherwise the second half of the work week should be dry. A northeast wind around the high will be maintained through much of the week across the region. Despite the persistent onshore flow, model forecast soundings show the column drying out owing to strong subsidence underneath the ridge. In this setup, we may see low clouds develop/advect inland each night and subsequently mix out/erode during each morning. Assuming we see mostly sunny skies during peak heating, max temperatures each afternoon should be near normal. This equates to highs predominately in the low/mid 70s except 60s across the higher terrain of northeastern PA/northwestern NJ and near the coast Wednesday-Friday. Then our attention turns to Hurricane Matthew for the weekend. The upper ridge progresses downstream of the forecast area and into the western Atlantic Ocean this weekend. Meanwhile, an upstream trough moves eastward through the Great Lakes/Midwest regions on Saturday and then the Northeast on Sunday. Initially, the tropical cyclone (TC) is expected to be steered northward around the western periphery of the ridge somewhere near the Southeast coast or potentially farther offshore. The track of Matthew then becomes even more uncertain as additional constituents from the mid latitudes come into play. The timing of and degree of interaction between the TC and the upstream mid latitude trough will influence the track of Matthew, specifically whether it will be pulled northward up the East coast or re-curve out to sea. Even if Matthew tracks well offshore to spare the northern mid-Atlantic region from direct impacts of strong winds and significant storm surge, there is a scenario on the table where the forecast area would be under a threat for heavy rainfall if the TC phases with the mid latitude trough that acquires a negative tilt. In this case, the pattern increasingly resembles composite studies for left- of-track Predecessor Rainfall Events (PREs). The past few runs of the GFS depict this wetter scenario. Conversely, there is another camp of models that depict limited phasing between both aforementioned systems. In the latter scenario, the TC would eventually be steered out to sea either Sunday or Monday, resulting in a mainly dry weekend except maybe for some light showers with the passage of a cold front. For now have gone with a blend of the guidance and the previous official forecast. PoPs trended higher for the weekend, but are still in chance range. Given the high uncertainty, please continue to monitor the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast track information on Hurricane Matthew. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR for awhile, however a surge in onshore flow and low- level moisture should result in a developing MVFR to perhaps IFR ceiling at many terminals mainly toward daybreak. This could also produce a shower or some drizzle. Light and variable winds, becoming northeast 5-10 knots late. Our confidence regarding the timing and extent of the low clouds is a bit below average. There could even be a little fog prior to the arrival of the NE surge. Some fog was added to the srn nj terminals. Tuesday...MVFR (perhaps IFR) conditions at many terminals due to low clouds and perhaps some drizzle in the morning, then conditions should improve to VFR toward Midday. Northeasterly winds around 10 knots, with some possible gustiness especially at ACY and MIV. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Friday night...Potential for sub-VFR with low clouds and fog (albeit less likely) to develop each night before mixing out and improving to VFR during the daytime. Persistent NE or E winds thru the period. Saturday...Forecast for this weekend is still uncertain and depends on the track of Hurricane Matthew. If the tropical system interacts with an upstream trough, then rain and flight restrictions may impact the terminals. If Matthew tracks close enough to the coast, then the threat of gusty winds (especially along the coast) and heavy rain would increase. && .MARINE... A weakening upper-level trough swings across the area tonight, then shifts to our east Tuesday. High pressure builds across New England then extends down into our area during Tuesday. This will allow for a tightening pressure gradient and a northeasterly surge. As this occurs, forecast soundings indicate the potential for gusts to 25 knots during Tuesday and this will also build the seas. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting at 12z Tuesday across the northern two coastal water zones, then 16z for the remaining zones. We held off including Delaware Bay as it may remain just below 25 knots, except for a portion of Lower Delaware Bay. Given lower confidence, held off including these zones for now. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Friday....SCA is in effect for the coastal waters Tuesday night with gusty NE winds and building seas. Even though winds may decrease on Wednesday, SCA conditions will likely continue through the rest of the week with seas remaining about 5 ft in persistent NEly flow. Friday night and Saturday...Long-period swells associated with Hurricane Matthew may reach the shore. Seas will build as well. There is still high uncertainty regarding how strong the winds and how high the waves get, which will ultimately depend on how close Matthew tracks to the northern mid-Atlantic coast. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451. && $$ Synopsis...Klein Near Term...Gorse/O'Hara Short Term...Gorse Long Term...Klein Aviation...Gorse/Klein/O'Hara Marine...Gorse/Klein  FXUS61 KPHI 122000 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 400 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will persist across much of the eastern U.S. and the western Atlantic through Tuesday. A backdoor cold front will push southward through the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning, stall south of the area Thursday, and return north as a warm front next weekend. The next cold front should approach from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure remains offshore of the east coast tonight, while ridging aloft remains across the east coast as well. A surface trough continues to linger along the eastern seaboard, but with a lack of moisture and associated lift, no precipitation will occur tonight. Some afternoon cumulus will dissipate later this evening. Overnight lows will be similar to Sunday night, but maybe a degree or two warmer in some spots. Also, with the return flow, dewpoint will rebound overnight again. There will be the possibility for some patchy light fog again overnight tonight where the coolest temperatures occur. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Another scorcher is expected on Tuesday. 925mb temperatures are forecast to be 23-24 degrees, and with ample mixing expected to take place, this would give highs Tuesday well into the low to mid 90s, with a few locations possibly in the upper 90s. The exception would be areas north of I-80 where cloud cover may move in during the day and suppress significant warming, and the coast where any sea breeze would knock down temperatures right along the immediate coast line. The Philadelphia metro urban corridor from Wilmington-Philadelphia- Trenton is expected to reach heat index values in the upper 90s. With these heat index values expected, we've issued a Heat Advisory from noon until 7 pm Tuesday. Another concern for Tuesday afternoon will be the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. While a surface trough will be in place across the area during the day, a back-door cold front is forecast to drop down toward the area from the north later in the day. As the front moves into our area, enhanced lift is expected to move into the area associated with an approaching short wave/vorticity impulse. There will be enough instability for thunderstorms to develop as well. While there is not a significant amount of shear forecast and the freezing level is fairly high, there may be enough instability to allow for some storms to build high enough for some hail to form and strong wind gusts to develop. The best chance for any showers and thunderstorms is the northern half of the area. SPC has areas along and north of I- 78 in a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB: A closed low in the Maritimes Tuesday night will weaken eastward while heights build again along the east coast during the rest of the week with positive anomalies by the end of next weekend and lasting into early next week. Temperatures: Calendar day averages Wednesday still 5 to 7 degrees above normal, near normal Thursday and Friday, then warming to at least 5 degrees above normal Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Forecast basis: A 50 50 blend of the 12z/12 GFS/NAM MOS guidance Tue night-Wed night, 12z/12 MEX MOS Thu and Thu night, then thereafter 15z/12 WPC day 4-8 elements except warmed that max/min temps guidance by 2-3F Fri-Sun because of the warmer 12z/12 cycle of the GFS/EC. Confidence on temps is average with thinking that these values could run 2-3F warmer during each afternoon Thu- Mon. Hazards: Heat-early season advisory ILG-PHL-TTN metro Tue 6/13 and probably again Sunday or Monday 6/18-19. Several short fuse FLS issuances excepted between Fri-Mon eve for high PWAT tstms, and potential for isolated wet microburst SVR storms Sun-Mon. The dailies... Tuesday night...Humid with isolated to scattered showers/tstms along the cold front in PWAT of 1.75". POPS conservative due to model disagreement and wnw 850 flow. Still we will have been any sending outflows sewd into our forecast area, out of an axis of MLC over 2500 J near I80 previously late Tue aftn. NAM has been tossing some high qpf bullseyes sewd into our area so we agree with the recently updated marginal risk by SPC into the early evening. Overall bulk shear does not qualify for svr but big Cape sometimes is enough to yield a substantial tstm, and certainly time of day is favorable as we move to the longest day of the year. Wednesday...Leftover showers leaving the coasts early and only a small chance of new tstms southern Delmarva during the afternoon. PWAT lowers from north to south...still humid south with pwat 1.5". Clearing north during the afternoon. Wind becoming northeast with gusts 15-20 mph and becoming less humid north to south. Wednesday night...Clear to partly cloudy. PWAT continues to lower. Thursday...Sunny to start. DRY. Increasing clouds late. Least chance of rain for the week. Southeast winds gust 15 to 20 mph. PWAT begins increasing late in the day. Friday into Saturday...Considerable cloudiness and more humid with periods of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms. Southeast wind gust 15 to 20 mph Friday becoming south Saturday with gusts under 15 mph. PWAT increases to 2". Sunday...a foggy start? then becoming hot and humid with high temps around 90 and heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. Afternoon dewpoints around 70. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms, potentially svr wet microburst. Southwest wind gusts 20 mph. MLC 1500J. Decent 0-6K bulk shear. Monday...Patchy fog to start? Hot and humid with max temps 88 to possibly 93. Afternoon dewpoints around 70. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms, potentially svr wet microburst. Southwest wind gusts 20 mph. MLC 1200J. Considerable 0-6K bulk shear. heat index probably makes it to the mid 90s, possibly higher...all max T dependent. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Generally VFR conditions will continue tonight through at least the first half of Tuesday. One exception is the possibility of patchy MVFR fog Tuesday morning for a couple of hours just before sunrise at ABE/RDG/MIV. Some afternoon cumulus built up today across the area, but this should mostly dissipate later this evening for a mostly clear night. Clouds will build again Tuesday, especially ahead of an approaching cold front across northern areas. Scattered to broken clouds around 5,000-6,000 feet are expected by the afternoon Tuesday. There is the potential for isolated/scattered showers to develop and move across the area Tuesday afternoon associated with the approaching cold front. The most likely time would be between 18z-00z Tuesday. Winds will be gusty for a couple of hours this afternoon, before gusts drop off this evening. Wind directions will generally be from the west to southwest, with some periodic northwest direction at a few locations. Many locations may have their winds become light and variable or calm overnight for a period. Winds increase again Tuesday out of the west 5-10 knots, with gusts in the mid-upper teens during the afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday night and Wednesday: Brief MVFR conditions possible in any showers/thunderstorms. Northwest winds becoming northeast behind a backdoor cold front that moves through the region on Wednesday. Wednesday night and Thursday: Mainly VFR. Winds east or southeast. Friday: Periods of MVFR with showers developing. Southeast winds gust 15-20 kt. Saturday...MVFR or IFR st/fog showers becoming VFR for a while in the afternoon. Wind becoming south. && .MARINE... Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the waters through Tuesday. Although winds may gust around 20 knots at times late this afternoon into the early evening. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may occur late in the day Tuesday. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Wednesday: Sub-SCA conditions expected, although a backdoor cold front will be moving through the waters. Southwest winds shifting to the northeast behind the front late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Wednesday night and Thursday: Sub-SCA conditions expected. East to southeast winds. Thursday night and early Friday...SCA possible. Southeast winds increasing with gusts to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Saturday...May? have residual Hazardous SCA seas of 5 ft on parts of the Atlantic waters, otherwise winds becoming south with max gusts under 20 kt except vicinity any tstms crossing DE Bay. Fog may become a hazard for a time on some of the waters. RIP CURRENTS... A low risk of rip currents is expected on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Here is a list of the record high temperatures for the these two days. A full complement of RER's will post at 530P. We know ACY RER and RER equal at ABE. Monday Tuesday June 12 June 13 Mount Pocono PA 87 in 1967 88 in 1894 Allentown PA 92 in 2015* 95 in 1956 Reading PA 93 in 2015* 96 in 1984* Philadelphia PA 95 in 2015* 95 in 1956 Trenton NJ 94 in 1933 95 in 1892 Altantic City NJ 93 in 2016 96 in 1984 Wilmington DE 96 in 1933* 96 in 1956 Georgetown DE 93 in 2016* 97 in 1954 * The record equaled that of a prior year or years. Note: The Atlantic City records listed above are from the Atlantic City International Airport. The airport is located 9 miles inland from the city and its climate records date back to 1958. && .EQUIPMENT... NWR and phone outage on the Coastal water Forecast broadcast since June 1 is related to the change to mixed case in the wording. We hope progress will be made late Tuesday on this problem. DIX will be OM for about 4 days sometime the middle of next week (weather determines the start of the outage) for a substantial install. At that time reliance will shift to TDWR's and adjacent office 88D's. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071-102- 104-106. NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ015-017>019. DE...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Drag/Kruzdlo Near Term...Robertson Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Drag Aviation...Drag/Robertson Marine...Drag/Robertson Climate... Equipment...  FXUS61 KPHI 122044 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 444 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will persist across much of the eastern U.S. and the western Atlantic through Tuesday. A backdoor cold front will push southward through the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning, stall south of the area Thursday, and return north as a warm front next weekend. The next cold front should approach from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure remains offshore of the east coast tonight, while ridging aloft remains across the east coast as well. A surface trough continues to linger along the eastern seaboard, but with a lack of moisture and associated lift, no precipitation will occur tonight. Some afternoon cumulus will dissipate later this evening. Overnight lows will be similar to Sunday night, but maybe a degree or two warmer in some spots. Also, with the return flow, dewpoint will rebound overnight again. There will be the possibility for some patchy light fog again overnight tonight where the coolest temperatures occur. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Another scorcher is expected on Tuesday. 925mb temperatures are forecast to be 23-24 degrees, and with ample mixing expected to take place, this would give highs Tuesday well into the low to mid 90s, with a few locations possibly in the upper 90s. The exception would be areas north of I-80 where cloud cover may move in during the day and suppress significant warming, and the coast where any sea breeze would knock down temperatures right along the immediate coast line. The Philadelphia metro urban corridor from Wilmington-Philadelphia- Trenton is expected to reach heat index values in the upper 90s. With these heat index values expected, we've issued a Heat Advisory from noon until 7 pm Tuesday. Another concern for Tuesday afternoon will be the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. While a surface trough will be in place across the area during the day, a back-door cold front is forecast to drop down toward the area from the north later in the day. As the front moves into our area, enhanced lift is expected to move into the area associated with an approaching short wave/vorticity impulse. There will be enough instability for thunderstorms to develop as well. While there is not a significant amount of shear forecast and the freezing level is fairly high, there may be enough instability to allow for some storms to build high enough for some hail to form and strong wind gusts to develop. The best chance for any showers and thunderstorms is the northern half of the area. SPC has areas along and north of I- 78 in a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB: A closed low in the Maritimes Tuesday night will weaken eastward while heights build again along the east coast during the rest of the week with positive anomalies by the end of next weekend and lasting into early next week. Temperatures: Calendar day averages Wednesday still 5 to 10 degrees above normal, near or slightly above normal Thursday and Friday, then warming to at least 5 degrees above normal Saturday, Sunday and Monday....possibly 10-13 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. Forecast basis: A 50 50 blend of the 12z/12 GFS/NAM MOS guidance Tue night-Wed night, 12z/12 MEX MOS Thu and Thu night, then thereafter 15z/12 WPC day 4-8 elements except warmed that max/min temps guidance by 2-3F Fri-Sun because of the warmer 12z/12 cycle of the GFS/EC. Confidence on temps is average with thinking that these values could run 2-3F warmer during each afternoon Thu- Mon. Hazards: Heat-early season advisory ILG-PHL-TTN metro Tue 6/13 and probably again Sunday or Monday 6/18-19. Several short fuse FLS issuances expected between Fri-Mon eve for high PWAT tstms, and potential for isolated wet microburst SVR storms Sun-Mon. The dailies... Tuesday night...Humid with isolated to scattered showers/tstms along the cold front in PWAT of 1.75". POPS conservative due to model disagreement and wnw 850 flow. Still any thunderstorms will have been any sending outflows sewd into our forecast area, out of n axis of MLC over 2500J, that previously resided near I-80 Tue aftn. NAM has been tossing some high qpf bullseyes sewd into our area so we agree with the recently updated marginal risk by SPC into the early evening. Overall bulk shear does not qualify for svr but big Cape sometimes is enough to yield a substantial tstm, and certainly time of day is favorable as we move to the longest day of the year. Wednesday...Leftover showers leaving the coasts early and only a small chance of new tstms southern Delmarva during the afternoon. PWAT lowers from north to south...still humid south with pwat 1.5". Clearing north during the afternoon. Wind becoming northeast with gusts 15-20 mph and becoming less humid north to south. Wednesday night...Clear to partly cloudy. PWAT continues to lower. Thursday...Sunny to start. Increasing clouds late. DRY though we saw the somewhat wetter soln of the 12z EC but have not applied that soln in this fcst, primarily because the GEFS appeared dry. Seems like the least chance of rain for the week. Southeast winds gust 15 to 20 mph. PWAT begins increasing late in the day. Friday into Saturday...Considerable cloudiness and more humid with periods of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms in convergence ahead of a warm frontal wave of low pressure trying to develop near the mid Atlantic coast. Southeast wind gust 15 to 20 mph Friday becoming south Saturday with gusts under 15 mph. PWAT increases to 2". Sunday...a foggy start? then becoming hot and humid with high temps around 90 and heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. Afternoon dewpoints around 70. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms-mainly northwest of I-95. Potentially svr wet microburst. Southwest wind gusts 20 mph. MLC at least 1500J. Decent 0-6K bulk shear. Monday...Patchy fog to start? Hot and humid with max temps 88 to possibly 93F. Afternoon dewpoints around 70. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms, potentially svr wet microburst. Southwest wind gusts 20 mph. MLC at least 1200J. Considerable 0-6K bulk shear. Heat index probably makes it to the mid 90s, possibly higher...all max T dependent. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Generally VFR conditions will continue tonight through at least the first half of Tuesday. One exception is the possibility of patchy MVFR fog Tuesday morning for a couple of hours just before sunrise at ABE/RDG/MIV. Some afternoon cumulus built up today across the area, but this should mostly dissipate later this evening for a mostly clear night. Clouds will build again Tuesday, especially ahead of an approaching cold front across northern areas. Scattered to broken clouds around 5,000-6,000 feet are expected by the afternoon Tuesday. There is the potential for isolated/scattered showers to develop and move across the area Tuesday afternoon associated with the approaching cold front. The most likely time would be between 18z-00z Tuesday. Winds will be gusty for a couple of hours this afternoon, before gusts drop off this evening. Wind directions will generally be from the west to southwest, with some periodic northwest direction at a few locations. Many locations may have their winds become light and variable or calm overnight for a period. Winds increase again Tuesday out of the west 5-10 knots, with gusts in the mid-upper teens during the afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday night and Wednesday: Brief MVFR conditions possible in any showers/thunderstorms. Northwest winds becoming northeast behind a backdoor cold front that moves through the region Wednesday morning. Wednesday night and Thursday: Mainly VFR. Winds east or southeast. Friday: Periods of MVFR with showers developing. Southeast winds gust 15-20 kt. Saturday...MVFR or IFR st/fog showers becoming VFR for a while in the afternoon. Wind becoming south. && .MARINE... Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the waters through Tuesday. Although winds may gust around 20 knots at times late this afternoon into the early evening. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may occur late in the day Tuesday. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Wednesday: Sub-SCA conditions expected, although a backdoor cold front will be moving through the waters. Southwest winds shifting to the northeast behind the front late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning with a few gusts to near 25 kt. We may need a marine weather statement early Wednesday for 2 hours of gusty ne winds to 25 kt. Wednesday night and Thursday: Sub-SCA conditions expected. East to southeast winds. Thursday night and early Friday...SCA possible. Southeast winds increasing with gusts to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Saturday...May? have residual Hazardous SCA seas of 5 ft on parts of the Atlantic waters, otherwise winds becoming south with max gusts under 20 kt except vicinity any tstms crossing DE Bay. Fog may become a hazard for a time on some of the waters. RIP CURRENTS... A low risk of rip currents is expected on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Here is a list of the record high temperatures for the these two days. A full complement of RER's will post at 530P. We know ACY and GED RER and RER equal at ABE. Monday Tuesday June 12 June 13 Mount Pocono PA 87 in 1967 88 in 1894 Allentown PA 92 in 2015* 95 in 1956 Reading PA 93 in 2015* 96 in 1984* Philadelphia PA 95 in 2015* 95 in 1956 Trenton NJ 94 in 1933 95 in 1892 Altantic City NJ 93 in 2016 96 in 1984 Wilmington DE 96 in 1933* 96 in 1956 Georgetown DE 93 in 2016* 97 in 1954 * The record equaled that of a prior year or years. Note: The Atlantic City records listed above are from the Atlantic City International Airport. The airport is located 9 miles inland from the city and its climate records date back to 1958. && .EQUIPMENT... NWR and phone outage on the Coastal water Forecast broadcast since June 1 is related to the change to mixed case in the wording. We hope progress will be made late Tuesday on this problem. DIX will be OM for about 4 days sometime the middle of next week (weather determines the start of the outage) for a substantial install. At that time reliance will shift to TDWR's and adjacent office 88D's. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071-102- 104-106. NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ015-017>019. DE...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Drag/Kruzdlo Near Term...Robertson Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Drag 443 Aviation...Drag/Robertson 443 Marine...Drag/Robertson 443 Climate...443 Equipment...443  FXUS61 KPHI 020016 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 816 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push offshore Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday and move through the region on Saturday. High pressure will build in for the end of the weekend and into early next week. There is a chance that the cold front to our south will retreat northward as a warm front on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Scattered shower and tstm activity on the decrease now with the loss of daytime heating. Several FLS statements and a couple FFW were issued earlier as the storms were barely moving along. The FFWs were issued in Carbon and Philadelphia counties of PA and in NJ the adjacent (to Philadelphia) counties of Burlington and Camden. Radar was indicating over 2 inch per hour plus rates with some of the storms. Skies will become mostly clear overnight after the convective debris clouds diminish. Tonight... After storms probably die out...Fair. light or calm wind. Dense fog patches where it rained this afternoon evening and prime focus is north of I78. Forecast basis was 50 50 blended 12z/1 GFS/NAM MOS guidance. Lows tonight 1 to 7 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Leftover boundary reemerges near I80 in the afternoon and probably forces increased convection as compared to this afternoon. TT in the lower 50s combined with increased 0-6Km shear...still only 25 kt, but possibly enough to allow not only slow moving gully washers in 1.5" PWAT (see NAM for max qpf bullseye- am not seeing convective qpf be much greater than what the nam is advertising...ie when i see NAM qpf bullseye, I sort of know what to expect on max qpf though placement or timing might be in error), but also isolated small hailers and G35-40kt. So...a very warm humid day with more skycover than we had today. Max temps temps 1 to 6F above normal. FCST basis: 12z/1 GFS/NAM 50 50 blended MOS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overview...The period starts with surface high pressure still in control and an approaching cold front across the Great Lakes. The front is expected to slow on Thursday as low pressure spins up over the Upper Mississippi River. This low will slowly track into the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday and pull a cold front across the Ohio Valley. The low will move northeast into Quebec Friday night and by daybreak Saturday, the cold front will be knocking on our door. As of now, the cold front will move through Saturday. The front will be well offshore on Sunday with high pressure building in across the region. Surface high pressure is forecast to remain in control on Monday and Tuesday. But the question is how far the cold front will retreat northward as a warm front. This will directly affect our sensible weather. Temperatures...For comparison, normals for PHL are 87 and 69 at the start of the period. Temperatures will be slightly above normal on Thursday and Friday, near normal on Saturday, and below normal behind the cold front Sunday into Monday. Tuesday looks to be at or below normal, but is dependent on what happens with the retreating warm front. Precipitation...A chance of showers and thunderstorms exists Wednesday night, mainly north and west of the PA Turnpike. That area will expand south and east on Thursday into the coastal plain. POPS, once again, will be highest north of the PA Turnpike. The chance of showers and Thunderstorms will persist through Friday and Saturday as just about everywhere is fair game for convection with the approach and passage of the cold front. Attm, we'll dry things out Saturday night and hope to salvage a nice, precipitation- free Sunday. Low confidence on Monday and Tuesday at this point. Precipitation chances will be dependent on the return of the possible warm front. Winds...Benign winds are expected throughout the forecast period, except in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. The seabreeze should penetrate inland on Thursday and Friday, be more localized Saturday, and return inland Sunday through Tuesday. Impacts...Outside of some isolated to scattered stronger thunderstorms associated with the approaching cold front (wind and brief heavy rain), the probability for widespread hazardous weather is rather low. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Light wind. Patchy MVFR fog may develop after 06Z mostly outside of the urban corridor. At this point, the TAF sites with the highest risk of fog development are KABE, KRDG, and KMIV. LIFR fog probable near I-80 later tonight where it rained this afternoon. Also, probably KPNE where some rain occurred earlier. Wednesday...VFR. Light south to southwest flow. Scattered mostly afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected sub-VFR conditions possible, mainly from KPHL and points north and west. Heavy rain and wind gust 35 kt possible and possibly small hail, especially near I-78. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Southeast to south winds around 10 kts or less, except 10 to 15 kts on Thursday and Friday. A chance for afternoon/evening showers or thunderstorms each day with sub-VFR conditions possible, mainly from KPHL and points north and west on Wednesday evening and Thursday and expanding across all terminals on Friday. Early morning fog possible Thursday and Friday at our climatologically favored sites. Saturday...VFR, but with more widespread MVFR conditions expected in showers and thunderstorms. Winds will start from the southwest and end the day with west or northwest. General speeds will be in the 10 to 15 kt range. Stronger gusts possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will stay below small craft advisory conditions through Wednesday. A few gusts around 15 kt are possible this afternoon across the northern NJ Atlantic coastal waters. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday morning...Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through this period. Friday afternoon through Friday night...Sub-SCA conditions. But winds could approach 20 kts across the near-shore waters off of northern Ocean and Monmouth counties during the afternoon and evening hours as the NY Bight jet fires up. Seas will respond. Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Southwest winds to start the day and west to northwest to finish. General speeds are forecast to be 20 kts or less with the frontal passage, but higher gusts possible in and near thunderstorms. Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. West to northwest winds 15 kts or less. Rip Currents... Low risk through Wednesday Again LOW does not mean NO risk. SE swell of 1-2 ft at 8 seconds should persist with again a southerly afternoon wind flow, maybe slightly stronger than that of this afternoon, but still not imposing. Long range: unclear at this time when we'll get back to a moderate or greater risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents. AWARENESS: We cannot overemphasize the danger of swimming alone, at unguarded areas. Too risky, especially for weaker swimmers. Many of us may overestimate our swimming ability. Additionally, often bystanders are weaker and cannot save a distressed swimmer, especially without a flotation device. This is what lifeguards are about...your safety, and rescues if within their sight. One other note: On-going developing UDEL research finds that surf zone injuries caused by unexpected wave related faceplants onto the beach are significant (wave knock down onto the hard beach floor). We dont often hear about these...but some of these injuries can be a lifetime disability...spinal cord. The point: When leaving the surf zone for the beach blanket- chair...dont turn your back completely to the water. Edge out with an eye on the waves still crashing behind you. It appears in this UDEL research that steep reflective beaches promotes unexpected wave injuries. Percent of injuries ... wading 40% body surfing 26% body boarding 21% Twice as many males as females are injured...and interestingly enough there is a 6 to 1 ratio of inland beach visitors being injured as compared to the locals. The ocean is a playland but the power of water needs respect. Thank you for reading. && .CLIMATE... The July CLM's were run and posted at 443AM and no surprises from what was posted the last several days. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Kruzdlo Near Term...Drag/PO Short Term...Drag Long Term...Kruzdlo Aviation...Drag/Kruzdlo/PO Marine...Drag/Kruzdlo Climate...  FXUS61 KPHI 010801 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 401 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall just to the north and west of our region by later today. Low pressure will track along this front up the Ohio Valley later today, then across central New York State tonight into Friday. The cold front will then work its way across our area Friday night into early Saturday as another low tracks along it. High pressure builds in Saturday night and Sunday before shifting to near the Canadian Maritimes by Monday morning. As low pressure tracks well to our west early next week, an associated cold front moves through on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 03z objective model analyses indicate a strong west-southwesterly oriented 250-mb jet streak across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada with a deep large-scale trough and attendant vort max in the south-central U.S. and downstream ridge amplification in progress across the East Coast and western Atlantic. At the surface, a low in the Mid-South was lifting northeastward with a southwest-to- northeast baroclinic zone stretching into Pennsylvania and New York. Decaying showers exist near the baroclinic zone but have generally dissipated before reaching the far northwestern CWA. This will likely continue today, though cannot completely rule out a shower or two in the Poconos. Moreover, with a weak perturbation moving through New York/Pennsylvania this morning, expecting a lull in precipitation in NY/PA downstream of the main trough and surface low by late morning into the afternoon in the wake of the predecessor perturbation, so have the highest PoPs in the northwest CWA early this morning trending slowly downward this afternoon. No mentionable PoPs are in place southeast of the Fall Line today. The main story today will be temperatures, which are expected to be well above seasonal averages. The trend in yesterday's guidance was slightly downward, whereas today's guidance is noticeably higher. Based on observed temperatures yesterday, strongly suspect the warmer trend is the correct one, and I went slightly above consensus for max temperatures today, which ends up being about a 50% mix of continuity and MAV MOS (the most consistent of the statistical guidance regarding temperatures today). Skies should be partly to mostly sunny in most of the area today, except perhaps somewhat cloudier in the northwest. Southwest winds may pick up somewhat this afternoon (gusts of 20 mph or so) as diurnal mixing maximizes. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... The surface low in the Mid-South early this morning is expected to be in the eastern Ohio Valley this evening. This will lift the stalled front just to our northwest into New York and New England tonight. Meanwhile, a strong perturbation will approach the northern Mid-Atlantic during the overnight hours, and this should initiate showers in the warm sector. High-resolution models are rather chaotic with coverage of the precipitation, but most of it looks to be fairly light/scattered southeast of the Fall Line. In the Poconos and Lehigh Valley, the closer proximity to the vort max suggests stronger and more widespread lift will be available, so precipitation amounts are expected to be higher here. Using the NAM Nest as a guide, the precipitation may come in two phases. The first would occur between 00z and 06z, in association with a meridionally-oriented vort max downstream of the stronger perturbation to the west. Coverage will be highest to the north and more scattered (or even rather sparse) farther south. The second occurs in the wake of the predecessor vort max, in a region of strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the primary vort max to the west. Along with the WRF-ARW/NMM, the precipitation associated with this second wave may be somewhat more organized/locally heavy. Environmental profiles show meager instability at best through the night...so meager, that I think thunder chances are too low for inclusion through the period. However, I should note that elevated instability will be increasing late, and if the timing speeds up in later forecasts, thunder chances would probably be required. There are indications that the showers could have decent precipitation cores. Though this threat is highest northwest of the area, this will be something to watch closely with subsequent model runs. Given the strength of the low-level wind profiles and a decently mixed boundary layer for an early November night in the Northeast, cannot rule out a rogue strong wind gust or two should this second wave of strongly-forced showers materialize. Winds will be fairly elevated overnight, perhaps even gusting at times to around 20-25 mph or so (especially near the coast and in the southern CWA). Temperatures will be quite warm, with lows likely above 60 south of Interstate 78. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Summary...Unsettled with warmth Friday and Friday night; Drying and cooler for the weekend (gusty winds on Saturday); Some warming with showers at times next week. Synoptic Overview...A highly amplified upper-level trough is forecast to shift eastward from the Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley Friday, then across the Northeast Saturday as it takes on a negative tilt. The flow is progressive therefore it turns more zonal Saturday night into Sunday, however the next trough amplifies from the Midwest and Mississippi Valley but it may shear out as it lifts northeastward Monday into Tuesday. A more substantial trough is forecast to start shifting eastward Wednesday, sweeping a cold front off the East Coast. The main time frame to focus rain is Friday into Saturday, then again mostly Tuesday into Wednesday. For Friday and Saturday...Unsettled into at least the morning hours of Saturday as a sharp upper-level trough takes on a negative tilt as it lifts across the Northeast. An initial surface low will track into New England Friday, however its associated cold front will shift eastward and cross our region during Friday into Friday night. As strong energy lifts northeastward from the Tennessee Valley Friday evening, a new surface low is forecast to develop along the front and track northward. This in combination with increasing large scale ascent will result in an expansion of rain from south to north Friday night. There is some potential for a forced low-topped convective line ahead or near the leading edge of the negative tilt trough, however instability looks to be on the low side. This could be tied to low-topped convection weakening as it arrives from the west Friday morning, then some some additional development in the afternoon and evening with the front. As of now, the risk for severe thunderstorms looks rather low given marginal instability forecast. Locally heavy rain will occur with surface dew points into the 60s ahead of the cold front, and especially if some embedded convective elements move over the same area. However, any flooding issues should be of the typical poor drainage type especially if fallen leaves clog storm drains. It may end up being more showery during the day Friday, and southerly flow ahead of the front will result in another mild day. The extent of the showers and cloud cover will have an impact on temperatures. The entire system is forecast to be lifting to our northeast during the first half of Saturday, resulting in improving conditions. However, there looks to be a period of time Saturday when rather gusty winds occur. This is due to cold air advection and pressure rises as the negative tilt upper-level trough pivots across our area and then to our northeast. The pressure gradient also tightens and with deeper mixing developing during the day, north-northwest winds will be gusty. The forecast soundings generally show about 30 knots (35 mph) of wind mixing down to the surface across much of the area, however the winds should diminish quite a bit late in the day and in the evening as mixing starts to wane and high pressure begins to build in. It will be much cooler Saturday given cold air advection and especially factoring in a gusty wind. For Sunday and Monday...As the flow aloft is more southwesterly Sunday, surface high pressure builds across our area however it quickly shifts into New England and then near the Canadian Maritimes by Monday morning. This will result in less wind Sunday, however the surface flow then becomes more onshore. As the next upper-level trough amplifies into the Ohio Valley Monday, a coastal front may try and work its way northward toward Delmarva. It is less certain if some showers are able to develop with this feature as the low- level flow turns more from the southeast, therefore kept it dry regarding this for now. Clouds are expected to be on the increase though Monday as warm air advection is underway in advance of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. Showers may be delayed until late in the day Monday and at night and for mainly our western zones. Some areas Monday afternoon should experience temperatures edging into the 60s. For Tuesday and Wednesday...The amplification of an upper-level trough arriving from the west will play a significant role in the timing of a couple of cold fronts. The first cold front may be tied to an initial upper-level through that tends to shear out to the northeast into Tuesday, then a secondary cold front arrives by later Wednesday. There is the potential for a decent amount of moisture to accompany the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday and therefore PoPs are kept on the higher side. The warmer flow ahead of the cold front should allow for temperatures to rise into the 60s for much of the area on both afternoon's. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with SCT-OVC CIGs well above 10 kft. Winds becoming south to southwest around 10 kts with some potential for a few higher gusts to 20 kts. High confidence. Tonight...Lowering CIGs, gradually becoming MVFR from west to east after 03z. Increasing chances for showers, especially north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Winds generally southerly around 10 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts possible, especially near the coast. Southwesterly LLWS is probable at RDG/ABE and possible at the Philly terminals. Moderate confidence. OUTLOOK... Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions for much of the time, especially at night as some showers transition into periods of rain. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon and at night. Southwest winds 10-15 knots, becoming west then northwest and diminishing some late in the day and especially at night. Saturday...MVFR/IFR probable especially in the morning with some showers, then conditions improve to VFR. North-northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots, becoming west-northwest and diminishing to near 10 knots late in the day and especially at night. Sunday...VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming east to southeast around 5 knots. Monday...VFR, however MVFR and some shower possible by later in the day. East winds around 10 knots. && .MARINE... Winds are really struggling to mix on the waters this morning. The only observation that is close on or near Delaware Bay is Brandywine Shoal Light, and even this station has been solidly sub-advisory. Decided to change the advisory for Delaware Bay by canceling it through this morning and making it effective starting at noon. For the Atlantic waters, seas are near/above 5 feet at this time, so the advisory was not changed here. Nevertheless, winds will struggle to reach criteria through the morning hours as well but should trend upward this afternoon, generally from a south to southwest direction. Tonight, some of the more aggressive (hi-res) guidance suggests a potential for gale-force gusts, but I am doubtful. Low-level thermal profiles are not favorable for mixing. Although the sustained speeds should be above advisory criteria, gusts will be hard to come by. A chance of showers exists overnight with some potential for localized stronger gusts and higher waves. OUTLOOK... Friday...The Small Craft Advisory was extended through Noon on Delaware Bay as winds should diminish in the afternoon, and it was extended for the Atlantic coastal waters through 6 PM as gusty winds and elevated seas will remain longer. Winds may drop below advisory criteria everywhere at night, however seas should remain elevated on the ocean waters. Some showers Friday become periods of rain at night with a few thunderstorms possible. Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions look probable as a northwesterly wind increases with gusts to about 30 knots. A period of low-end gale force gusts are possible, however this is of lower confidence. The winds and seas subside at night. Showers end through the morning hours. Sunday...The conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory conditions. Monday...Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop by late Monday especially on the Atlantic coastal waters. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon EDT Friday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse Near Term...CMS Short Term...CMS Long Term...Gorse Aviation...CMS/Gorse Marine...CMS/Gorse  FXUS61 KPHI 260851 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 351 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue building in from the west through tonight yielding fair weather. A weak low pressure system will affect the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, then high pressure returns briefly on Thursday. More unsettled weather is expected Friday and into the weekend with another system potentially developing and passing south or west of the region. High pressure returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes continues to drift out to sea today. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Northern Plains will build into the Great Lakes today. Northwest pressure gradient will relax this morning, and west winds will average 5-10 mph, except 10-20 mph along the NJ shore and up in the higher elevations of the Pocono Mountains. A mid-level stratocu deck will overspread the region throughout the day. Going into the afternoon, winds increase again, averaging 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Highs today will be in the 20s in the southern Poconos, and otherwise in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... The center of the high moves from the northern Great Lakes and into northern New York state late tonight. Cloudy skies will keep strong radiational cooling conditions from developing, but lows will be in the teens north and west of the Fall Line, and otherwise in the 20s. Isolated snow showers may move into the southern Poconos prior to daybreak Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term period starts off with high pressure centered across Upstate New York with largely zonal flow aloft across the eastern US, which is expected through the end of the week. The high will move continue to move slowly eastward eventually weakening and pushing offshore Wednesday night. A shortwave trough will pass quickly off to our north late Wednesday and early Thursday. This shortwave will bring some light precipitation to our area, however it appears that there will be some drier mid-level air in place across the central and southern portion of the forecast area. The 00Z medium range guidance suite indicates the deepest moisture plumes and forcing will remain focused primarily toward the northern part of our area, where precip is most likely to occur, with a weak low pressure center passing over the southern portion of the forecast area. Thermodynamic profiles indicate this precip will fall as all snow, especially along and north of I-95. Some light rain/snow showers (perhaps even mixed with sleet) may be possible south of I-95, mainly across far southern NJ, Wednesday evening. The most widespread snowfall should move through late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Snow should end from west to east before daybreak Thursday morning. Have adjusted the forecast to reflect this accordingly. A coating of snow (up to 2" in the far north) is expected generally along and north of I-78 Wednesday and Wednesday night for northern NJ and the Poconos, and perhaps a dusting in the Lehigh Valley. The aforementioned low will push out to sea Wednesday night and high pressure will return briefly on Thursday bringing fair weather and near average temperatures. Early Friday, another shortwave is forecast to move through the region in advance of a deepening trough across the Great Lakes. With high pressure still in place at the surface and thus cooler and relatively dry air, this feature has the potential to bring another quick round of light precipitation to our area late Thursday night and early Friday. As far a p-type, a mix of rain and snow appears probable possible across southern Delmarva and far southern NJ with all snow elsewhere. If the forecast trends a bit colder/drier, p-type may be all snow for the entire forecast area. It appears the highest QPF will be favored across Delmarva and far southern NJ, where surface conditions are not forecast to be favorable for notable accumulations. Any snow accumulations are currently expected to remain light with a coating of snow possible across the entire forecast area, but may reach advisory criteria in some locales if QPF trends wetter over the next few forecast cycles. Another round of rain is probable Saturday with a rapid cool down behind a passing cold front into Sunday. Guidance has trended a bit weaker and slower with the surface low associated with this system, so not expecting much in the way of a high wind threat as with the currently outgoing system. High pressure with origins from central Canada will push eastward across the northeastern US bring fair and colder weather Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR/BKN100-200. NW winds around 10 kt this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts in the afternoon. Tonight...VFR. BKN CIGs lowering to 7000-9000 feet. Winds become light and variable. Outlook... Wednesday and Wednesday night...Light snow with sub-VFR conditions probable north of I-95. Light winds. Moderate confidence. Thursday...VFR with N winds 5 to 10 kts. Moderate confidence. Thursday night through Friday night...Snow/rain showers with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. E winds 5 to 15 kts. Low confidence. Saturday and Saturday night...Widespread rain and clouds with conditions MVFR with IFR probable. Light southerly winds becoming west to northwest and increasing to 10-20 kts overnight. Low confidence. && .MARINE... Will cancel the Low Water Advisory for Delaware Bay as low tide has passed, and water levels will begin to rebound. SCA remains in effect for the NJ ocean waters until 7 am for the southern NJ ocean waters and will extend the SCA until 4 pm for the northern NJ ocean waters. Tuesday...Winds and seas decreasing later in the day. Wednesday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the entire outlook period. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 feet Friday into Saturday as the next storm system approaches. Wind may approach SCA criteria late Saturday night into Sunday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ452- 453. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ450- 451. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...MPS Short Term...MPS Long Term...Staarmann Aviation...MPS/Staarmann Marine...MPS/Staarmann  FXUS61 KPHI 270853 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will begin retreating today as a weak low pressure system approaches the area from the west. This system will affect the region through tonight, then high pressure returns briefly on Thursday. Another weak low pressure system will pass south of our area Thursday night into early Friday with a stronger low to follow on Saturday as it moves northeast through the Ohio Valley into the northeastern US. A cold front is expected to follow in its wake early Sunday then high pressure returns early next week. A coastal low may impact the area Tuesday of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes builds east today, then moves towards the Gulf of Maine later today. Meanwhile, weak low pressure over the Midwest will lift towards the Ohio Valley, and this pushes a warm front towards the region as the day progresses. Quite dry across the region with surface dewpoints in the single digits for the northern half of the forecast area, and in the teens and low 20s across the southern half. Despite light onshore flow, with light northeast winds this morning gradually veering to the southeast later this afternoon, it will take some time for the lower levels of the atmosphere to moisten up enough to support precip. Current dewpoint depressions are on the order of 10-15 degrees. Although surface temps will rise later this morning, it will take quite some time for the surface dewpoints to rise as well. So there could be a period where dewpoint depressions will be on the order of 15-20 degrees, so any precip that develops this morning, mainly across the far northern zones, may dry up before reaching the ground. Latest radar shows some returns across the northern areas, but surface obs not recording precip. Will carry chance PoPs for the northern zones, but for light snow, mainly this morning. Dry slot then lifts north this afternoon. PoPs up north generally decrease. Warm front continues to lift north through the day, and should be through the southern half of the forecast area by early evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Low pressure over western Pennsylvania and West Virginia will track to the north and east tonight, then moves offshore by daybreak Thursday. High pressure remains to the north of the area. Snow increases over the far northern zones this evening, and will likely result in a couple of inches of snow accumulation this evening. The heaviest of the snow should arrive after the evening commute. Elsewhere, with midlevel warming, and potential evaporational cooling for most of the area, for areas along and south of I-78, can expect a quick shot of snow, changing to sleet and freezing rain. However, important to note that QPF amounts are quite low. So not expecting much in the way of icing, but there may be a glaze, generally between I-195 and I-80, after the evening commute this evening. Since snow amounts in the far northern zones will range from 1-2", and the confidence is low on freezing rain/icing potential from I-80 to I-195, will not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. Precip ends by daybreak Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will be offshore by Thursday morning and high pressure will build from the west bringing fair weather, near average temperatures, and dry air on Thursday. Thursday night into early Friday, a shortwave is forecast to move through the region in advance of a deepening trough across the Great Lakes. Forecast models differ quite substantially even at this range regarding details for this system. The GFS and ECMWF have a weaker and thus faster/drier wave whereas the NAM/NAMNest have a stronger and thus slower/wetter wave. However, the latest ECMWF run has trended back to a slightly wetter solution again. To this end, forecast confidence remains low for this potential wintry event. Given the subtle nature of the shortwave, will favor a slightly slower and wetter solution in the forecast. As far a p-type, a mix of snow/sleet/rain appears probable across our southern Delmarva counties and Cape May County with all snow elsewhere. Given the placement of the surface low to our south offshore of NC/VA, it appears the highest QPF will be favored across Delmarva and far southern NJ. Snow accumulations are currently expected to remain light with a coating of snow possible across the entire forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning, but may reach advisory criteria (~2" or more) in some locales, especially northern Delmarva, SE PA, and southern NJ. This system has the potential to impact the Friday morning commute. High temps Friday will be dependent on exactly how much snow falls, but should reach into the upper 30s, perhaps lower 40s, outside of the Poconos. Friday night through Tuesday... The pattern remains active over the weekend and into early next week as a long wave ridge moves from the central into the eastern CONUS while a long wave ridge builds over western Canada. This will also favor temperatures trending below average by early next week. In terms of the details, the next low pressure system looks to affect the area later Friday night into Saturday as a primary low moves NE through the Ohio Valley with a secondary low potentially developing off the coast by later Saturday. This setup should favor a warmer, mainly rain scenario but there could be some snow or mixed precip at the onset...especially north of the I-95 corridor. Precip may also end as a rain/snow mix or all snow early Sunday, especially toward the north. Following this system a cold front moves through by early Sunday bringing in colder drier conditions. Highs Saturday should be mainly in the 40s with highs by Sunday looking to be about 5-10 degrees colder. Heading into the late Sunday into next Monday time frame, long wave trough will be setting up over the east with a baroclinic zone south of the area. The potential exists for a storm system to developing to our south along this baroclinic zone and potentially affect the area with some snow by Sunday night into Monday, but at this time forecast confidence is low on this. This system should be off to our east by next Tuesday with the main story by this time being colder temperatures as temps look to be a good 10 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with CIGs lowering from around 15000 ft to around 5000 ft. There is a slight chance for light snow at KABE, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. NE winds less than 10 kt, veering to the SE later today. Tonight...MVFR/IFR CIGs develop this evening. A wintry mix of snow, then sleet and freezing rain, will impact the northern terminals. Possible for conditions to be dry at KILG/KMIV/KACY, or a brief period of light wintry mix, then light rain. LGT/VRB winds. Outlook... Thursday...VFR with N winds 5 to 10 kts. High confidence. Thursday night through Friday...Light snow developing overnight, mainly I-95 corridor terminals and south, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. NE winds 5 to 10 kts turning E later in the day. Moderate confidence. Friday night through Saturday night...Widespread rain developing by the morning with conditions MVFR with IFR probable. Snow may mix in Friday night for northern terminals. E winds around 5 kts becoming light and variable during the day then becoming W 5 to 10 kts Saturday night. Low confidence. Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts. && .MARINE... Today and tonight...Sub-SCA conditions with NE winds this morning at 10-20 kt, veering to the SE 5-10 kt later today. Winds become NW 10- 15 kt late tonight. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through this period. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 feet Friday into Saturday as the next storm system approaches. Saturday night through Sunday...SCA conditions possible by late Saturday night into Sunday as NW winds increase to 15-25 knots. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...MPS Short Term...MPS Long Term...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann Aviation...MPS/Staarmann Marine...MPS/Staarmann  FXUS61 KPHI 050905 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 405 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will pass off to our north late Tuesday then high pressure builds into the region through Thursday. Low pressure will pass close to our area on Friday then much stronger low pressure will track across the Great Lakes Sunday. A cold front will follow in the wake of this system late Sunday then high pressure builds into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Longwave trough is now well-established across eastern North America, with a surface high barreling down the Front Range today. Downstream, a weak low in the Great Lakes region and adjacent southeast Canada will move eastward as a fairly potent vort max pivots into New York and New England tonight. Some light snow showers should develop in advance of these features, but the system is quite moisture-starved, and the strongest lift will remain northwest of the CWA. Nevertheless, models tend to underestimate the lift available to generate some light precipitation on the southeast periphery of these systems, so I would not be surprised to see some periods of flurries or even light snow showers in the Poconos and vicinity, especially this afternoon as the system approaches the region. Kept mention of flurries in these areas this afternoon. Temperature forecast is not particularly easy, as increasing cloudiness will complicate the diurnal trends today. Timing and cloud thickness will be important factors regarding maximum temperatures. Model guidance is reasonably agreeable, though with notable spread. Generally used a consensus approach, but did weigh the better-performing guidance overnight highly with today's forecast. This resulted in little change from continuity, with 20s expected northwest of the Fall Line and 30s to the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The vort max will make the move eastward through New England and far southeast Canada tonight, and the strongest lift will move off to the northeast of the area beyond the evening hours. Any remaining flurries/snow showers in the northern CWA should wane after midnight. An attendant cold front will move through the area this evening, with winds becoming more northwesterly and possibly remaining decently elevated through the overnight hours. This should prevent temperatures from plummeting too rapidly, but make no mistake. It will be cold. Used colder-based guidance for lows tonight, but did not go as low as the lowest guidance given the expected lack of complete decoupling. Anticipating lows in the single digits in the Poconos, and the teens to around 20 everywhere else. Sheltered valley locations may be locally colder, by as much as or more than five degrees from nearby sites. With the anticipated winds, wind chills will generally be in the single digits, with sub-zero readings in the Poconos. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly quiet weather is expected for much of the upcoming work weak, with increasing potential for some unsettled weather for the end of the work week and later in the weekend. A weak surface low departing out to sea early Wednesday will push a weak cold front/surface troughing through our area on Wednesday. High pressure remains to our south, which will keep a steady northwest flow. Most of the area will be dry, however, with the steady northwest flow developing, lake effect snow showers/flurries may make their way into far northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure across the Upper Mississippi Wednesday night will shift to our south and combine with high pressure to our south later Wednesday through Thursday. This will keep the steady northwest flow and the chance of snow showers/flurries for our northern areas. This high pressure will briefly build across our area Thursday, bringing light winds and quiet conditions. However, this looks to be short lived. An area of low pressure is forecast to move out of the central states and across the central Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic region Friday into Friday night. There is slight differences with the timing and strength of this low, and in turn the amount of precipitation. There is a chance of precipitation for the whole area, however, the highest probability is for southern New Jersey and Delmarva. Depending on how early the precipitation starts, it may start out as snow. Then depending on how far north it moves, southern New Jersey and Delmarva would likely change over to rain later in the day and overnight, while areas farther north should likely remain snow if the precipitation moves far enough north. Quiet weather is expected for Saturday into Saturday night as high pressure moves to our north, with our area on the southern edge of the high. This quiet weather is expected to be temporary however. As we go into Sunday and Sunday night, an area of low pressure will be moving across the Great Lakes region, which will lift a warm front across the area, before a cold front sweeps through. Depending on how early the precipitation starts, it may start as a snow, sleet, or freezing rain mixture for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, before temperatures warm up everywhere and change the precipitation to all rain. The remainder of the area is expected to remain all rain. For Monday, strong northwest flow is expected to develop again as low pressure lifts to our northeast. Mostly dry conditions should return to the area, although flurries/snow showers are possible for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with northwest winds becoming more westerly or southwesterly by late this morning, with speeds around 10 kts. May see some gusts to 20 kts or so, especially at KPHL. Increasing mid and high clouds during the day, but expecting these to remain above MVFR thresholds. High confidence. Tonight...VFR with winds becoming northwest around 10 kts, though higher gusts may occur. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR expected. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts especially Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Moderate confidence. Friday...Conditions likely lowering, possibly to IFR, throughout the day with a chance of rain/snow. Winds SE less than 5 kts. Moderate confidence. Saturday...MVFR conditions may linger, especially early, but precipitation is expected to end by daybreak. Low confidence. && .MARINE... Winds are now below advisory criteria across the waters, though gusts are still occasionally flirting with 25 kts near Sandy Hook. Expect the diminishing trend to continue through this morning as winds become more southwesterly. However, they will ramp right back up late in the day, as directions return to a more westerly or northwesterly direction by this evening. Advisory conditions should return tonight from north to south, with gusts approaching 30 kts late tonight. Have issued a small craft advisory starting at 6 pm for the northern New Jersey coastal waters and starting at 10 pm for Delaware Bay and the southern New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic waters. Seas should remain under 5 feet, though they may approach this threshold late tonight. Some light freezing spray may occur early this morning, although not much has been observed so far. Better chances exist tonight as stronger winds pick up late, and temperatures drop well below freezing. Outlook... Wednesday and Wednesday night...SCA conditions expected to last with winds gusting 25-28 kts through much of the day and lingering into the evening hours over the ocean waters. Seas are expected to remain below 5 feet. Thursday...Winds may gust up to 25 kts during the day, otherwise sub SCA expected. Thursday night through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected during this entire period. Winds and seas will build late Saturday night ahead of the next approaching system on Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Here are the record lows and average lows for the climate sites for March 5: Site Average Low Record Low Allentown 26 8/1948 Atlantic City 30 10/2009, 1978 Georgetown 32 11/1978 Mount Pocono 22 -4/1912 Philadelphia 31 5/1872 Reading 28 5/1978 Trenton 29 4/1872 Wilmington 30 7/1978 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...CMS Short Term...CMS Long Term...Robertson/Staarmann Aviation...CMS/Staarmann Marine...CMS/Staarmann Climate...MPS  FXUS61 KPHI 060920 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 420 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue slowly building into the region from the west through Thursday when a weak wave of low pressure passes north of our area. Low pressure will pass across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday then high pressure will build from the north into Saturday. Much stronger low pressure is forecast to track across the Great Lakes Sunday. A cold front will follow in the wake of this system late Sunday and again on Monday then high pressure builds early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Strong vort max is pivoting through New York and New England early this morning, with a cold front sweeping through the Mid-Atlantic this past evening. Had a few reports of some flurries in Delmarva and southern New Jersey as well as the more usual spots (the Poconos and northwest New Jersey). Winds picked up for a time, as well, with some gusts of 35-45 mph observed in several spots, especially in Delmarva. As cold advection continues, diurnal heating this morning will quickly allow for the winds to increase once again, with gusts today of 25-35 mph common. Clouds will increase quickly this morning, spreading southeastward through most of PA/NJ. Models look mostly dry for today, but an analysis of projected soundings suggests potential for isolated snow showers. Mixing to 850-800 mb will be possible during the day, allowing for some shallow/meager instability to develop. With saturation in this 850- 800 mb layer, would not be surprised to see some flakes this afternoon in some locations, especially north of Philly. With decent winds aloft, cannot rule out an isolated squall either. Again, models are not impressive regarding this potential, but they tend to be underdone in these sorts of environments. Added some slight- chance PoPs for snow showers this afternoon generally north of a Reading-Philly-Atlantic City line, though the best potential would likely be north of I-78, in closer proximity to somewhat stronger large-scale lift downstream of a reinforcing vort max approaching the area late this afternoon. Temperatures will be cold today, with cold advection and increasing cloudiness likely precluding temperatures from reaching freezing in much of the area (except portions of Delmarva). Temperatures will likely remain near/below 20 degrees in the Poconos. With strong winds today, wind chills will be low, generally in the single digits and teens, with near-zero to sub-zero readings prevailing in the Poconos. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Weak vort max should shift southeastward from the area this evening with any snow showers quickly diminishing/exiting the area, leaving briefly improving skies and weakening winds as a surface ridge noses into the area. However, a strong vort max will be quick to reach the area late tonight, with clouds increasing again. Another cold night is expected, though with winds likely staying somewhat elevated and cloud cover increasing late, temperatures will not drop as low as they could in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Nevertheless, anomalous cold will continue, with lows in the single digits in the Poconos and adjacent areas, and teens to lower 20s elsewhere. With the approaching vort max late tonight, some flurries or light snow showers may occur in the Poconos and far northwest New Jersey late. Otherwise, this period should be dry. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold weather in place for the midweek period as Arctic high pressure will encompass the eastern half of the Nation. Highs on Thursday will generally be in the 20s and 30s, then lows Thursday night will be several degrees warmer than Wednesday night. With some shortwave energy passing across the region, cannot rule out some snow showers across northern zones, perhaps even to the I-95 corridor. Will keep PoPs capped at slight chance for late Wednesday night and Thursday with a mention of flurries farther south and east of there, although some heavier snow showers may be possible. Will need to monitor this in the coming forecast updates. High pressure moves offshore Thursday night, and then return flow sets up behind the departing high on Friday. A weak mid-level trough and shortwave energy moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will allow for weak low pressure to develop, and this low passes through the region Friday, departing offshore and strengthening somewhat Friday night. Models show this system as fairly moisture starved, so not expecting much in the way of QPF. Temps will be cold enough for snow to develop everywhere initially Friday morning, and then the rain/snow line should lift along/north of I-95 by Friday afternoon. Will have to watch the position of the offshore high, as it may end up being strong enough to keep measurable precip from moving into the region until late Friday morning or even early Friday afternoon. Winds shift to the NW behind the departing low as high pressure builds, allowing for a return to colder air into the region, so any precip that changes to rain should change back to snow before ending. Kept PoPs capped at high end chance with the higher confidence of precip occuring more toward the south and west, but think these will need to be bumped up to likely for some locales within the next forecast cycle or two. With such light QPF expected, snow should be light as well, generally less than an inch, and most locations will not even get that much. Highs rebound somewhat on Friday, ranging from the upper 20s/low 30s north and west of the Fall Line, to the upper 30s and low 40s elsewhere. Precip will taper off Friday evening. A very pleasant, sunny, and dry Saturday on tap with high pressure ridging down from the north and temperatures returning back into the 40s, possibly near 50 in some spots to the south. Clouds will being increasing from the west into Saturday evening. Another system ejects from the Rocky Mountains and into the Central Plains on Saturday, and moves northeast towards the Great Lakes Saturday night. A warm front will extend out ahead of that low and push towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday morning. A secondary low will form south of the region and lift through during the day. Depending on when the first waves of precip move into the region, could have some snow, or at least a wintry mix, at the onset for all but Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey late Saturday night. By Sunday morning, enough warm air spreads to the north to allow precip to change to all rain. Could have some periods of moderate to locally heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the secondary low develops over the area. This system departs Sunday night, and then a cold front passes through the region Monday morning as the primary low passes to the north and east of the region. High pressure then builds east for the start of the new work week with mild, dry, and mostly clear conditions expected. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Mainly VFR, though should see CIGs around 4000-7000 feet develop/spread southeastward during the day. Cannot rule out a stray/brief snow shower either, especially at ABE, late this morning into this afternoon. Main impact will be from the winds, however, with northwest speeds 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 25+ kts at times. Moderate confidence with winds and CIGs; low confidence with potential for snow showers (too low for TAF mention at this point). Tonight...VFR with northwest winds diminishing to around/below 10 kts. Outlook... Thursday and Thursday night...VFR with W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting up to 25 kts. Winds will decrease and become light and variable during the overnight hours. High confidence. Friday...Light snow/rain developing with MVFR probable and IFR conditions possible. Light and variable wind becoming SE around 5 kts by late morning. Moderate confidence. Friday night and Saturday...Conditions improving to VFR Friday evening. Light and variable winds becoming N around 5 kts then shifting east on Saturday. Moderate confidence. Saturday night through Sunday night...Widespread rain and clouds with IFR conditions expected by late Sunday. S wind 10-15 kts shifting west Sunday evening. Moderate confidence. Monday...Conditions improving to VFR. W winds 10-20 kts with higher gusts possible. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... Cold front came through last evening, with northwest winds nearing gale criteria on Delaware Bay for a time early this morning. Advisory-level northwest winds will continue through most of tonight across the waters, though they should slowly diminish starting this evening. Decided to extend the advisory for Delaware Bay through 1 am and for the Atlantic waters through 6 am, as models tend to diminish winds in northwest flow too quickly during the overnight hours. Despite the strong winds, offshore flow should prevent seas from being much more than 2 to 4 feet today near the coast. The cold northwest flow will promote the development of light freezing spray today and tonight, though this will be on the downward trend late as winds begin to diminish slowly. Outlook... Thursday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the entire outlook period. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 feet with winds also increasing late Saturday as the next storm system approaches. Sunday and Sunday night...SCA conditions likely developing by Sunday morning. && .CLIMATE... We had a question about what the lowest Max temperatures are for tomorrow and if we will have any record low Max T's. It looks like we will be 3 or 4 degrees above these lowest Maxs inmost areas. I will show the values below anyhow, FYI. Lowest MaxT and year of occurrence. RDG 23 (2015), ABE 22 (2007), TTN 23 (1872), PHL 21 (1901) ILG 26 (2015), ACY 27 (2015 and MPO 10 (2007) && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...CMS Short Term...CMS Long Term...MPS/Staarmann Aviation...CMS/Staarmann Marine...CMS/Staarmann Climate...O'Hara  FXUS61 KPHI 280119 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 919 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... As low pressure tracks into New York State during Tuesday, a warm front lifts across our area. A cold front then arrives Tuesday night, however it may stall near our area Wednesday into Thursday as a couple of low pressure systems move eastward along it. Low pressure is expected to strengthen and lift to our north Thursday and Thursday night, pulling a cold front across the area. Another cold front is forecast to move through later Saturday night into Sunday, followed by high pressure for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... For the 930 PM update, just tweaked the hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids based on the current observations to keep them current, then used the LAMP guidance to blend into continuity. The shallow cumulus has just about dissipated with some cirrus moving through. Clouds will increase especially overnight, as cloud debris from a convective complex now moving into western Ohio, spreads eastward and a warm front slowly approaches from the southwest. The sea breeze front has moved into the I-95 corridor, however it is quickly weakening due to cooling surface temperatures. Otherwise, attention turns to a perturbation approaching the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast later tonight. Though the amplitude of the shortwave trough is quite small, pronounced warm advection will occur downstream. A long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS; currently in the Midwest) will advance along and to the north of a baroclinic zone stretching from the lower Great Lakes to the northern/central Mid-Atlantic through the night, slowly diminishing in strength as nocturnal stabilization occurs and the fetch of moist/unstable air from the south/southwest diminishes with eastward extent. The MCS will approach our CWA doorstep by daybreak, with increasing cloudiness anticipated beforehand during the overnight hours. The evening hours will provide decent cooling, so that temperatures may fall somewhat below what most guidance is suggesting before readings begin to flat-line or even increase late tonight. Nevertheless, did warm temperatures somewhat from the previous forecast, and if cloud cover increases faster than forecast, lows may end up several degrees warmer. Most precipitation may hold off before daybreak, but did trend PoPs upward late, mainly in our eastern/southeastern Pennsylvania counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of the MCS approaching the area overnight are expected to affect the region (particularly PA/NJ) early in the day. This places a great deal of uncertainty of what transpires thereafter, as the hi-res guidance suggests showers (maybe a storm) in our CWA for much or most of the morning. Should this be the case, residual cloud cover may prevent considerable warming near (and either side of) the baroclinic zone straddling the region. Some of the guidance (notably hi-res and/or NAM- based) keeps temperatures quite cool north of I- 78, which is hard to ignore given coarser/statistical model biases of warming these areas too quickly in a post-precipitation regime (particularly if a zonally-oriented front is involved). I lowered temperatures considerably to the north of I-78, and I have a feeling that the far north may be cooler than the current forecast. Meanwhile, how warm will it get in the southern CWA? Would not be surprised to see temperatures approaching 90 in the far southern CWA (which may be unaffected by the morning precipitation). I was a little hesitant to get this warm, at least until the evolution of the morning precipitation becomes clearer. Even more uncertain is temperatures in between the two regimes (i.e., generally between the I-78 and I-76 corridors). There is significant bust potential in this area, with temperatures possibly 10+ degrees colder should the baroclinic zone struggle to move northward, or 5+ degrees warmer should the front make more progress than currently anticipated. Tried to produce a sharper gradient to maximum temperatures across the CWA based on consensus of hi-res simulations, which reasonably matches consensus/national guidance and surrounding offices. With the remnants of the MCS possibly affecting the area tomorrow morning, another question mark is environment recovery once stronger diurnal heating occurs. The most likely areas for thermodynamically favorable parameters for sufficient instability for strong/severe storms is south of I-76, given the above-mentioned factors. BUFKIT soundings are quite impressive to south of the boundary, with SBCAPE 1000-2000+ J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear 35-45 kts. Currently anticipate storms to develop to our north/west during the afternoon and approach the area tomorrow evening. Should most of the CWA see sufficient destabilization upstream of the morning precipitation, the CAPE/shear parameter space is quite favorable for severe storms. LCLs look a little high for tornadoes, especially when combined with mixed/mostly linear convective modes. Thus, damaging winds are the primary threat, though BUFKIT soundings show potentially considerable CAPE in the hail-growth layer. SPC upgraded most of the area to a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow, with an enhanced risk in most of southeast Pennsylvania. Should the progged kinematic/thermodynamic environments a la the NAM/GFS verify, this seems justified. Of course, what transpires during the morning will be key. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An unsettle pattern continues for much of the upcoming week into the weekend, with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, although there will be some quiet periods in between. Quiet weather returns early next week. Convection will be ongoing Tuesday evening as a frontal boundary moves down across the area from the north as low pressure moves to our northeast. This activity should diminish through the evening as daytime heating is lost and the short wave associated with it move eastward. The frontal boundary will likely stall near the area into Wednesday and Wednesday night as several waves of low pressure move along the boundary. As multiple rounds of short waves/vorticity impulses aloft move across the area within the northwest-west flow aloft, showers and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast through Wednesday night, although it will not rain the entire time. The higher probabilities will be tied to the passages of the short waves. By Thursday, the frontal boundary is expected to begin lifting to our north as an area of low pressure moves along the boundary to our north as well. As the low pulls to our northeast across New England Thursday night into Friday morning, it will pull a cold front across the east coast. More showers and thunderstorms are expected again Thursday into Thursday night. Dry weather is forecast to return for later Friday into Saturday as high pressure briefly builds across the northeast and into our area. However, showers may begin to develop during the afternoon Saturday as return flow develops and a short wave moves across the area. Also, another cold front is currently forecast to move toward the area on later Saturday into Sunday, which could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Once the cold front moves offshore, high pressure then builds back into the area for Monday and Tuesday of next week, which should provide nice weather. Temperatures through most of the extended period are forecast to be above normal, with Thursday potentially being the warmest day. Temperatures may return back close to normal early next week as high pressure moves in from the northwest. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR with mainly higher level clouds increasing overnight. Some showers may be approaching RDG/ABE toward daybreak. Mainly light and variable winds, becoming light southeasterly near daybreak. Tuesday...Some showers (perhaps thunder) in the morning, particularly in PA/NJ with times of MVFR probable especially at RDG, ABE and TTN. Any sub-VFR conditions should improve during the afternoon to VFR with winds becoming south or southwest 7-12 knots with locally higher gusts. Some additional showers and thunderstorms should develop into the area toward late afternoon, however confidence on coverage and location remains low. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night...Generally VFR conditions outside of showers and thunderstorms which could temporarily lead to lower conditions. Winds expected to be southwest Tuesday evening, then shifting to northwest overnight. Wednesday-Wednesday night...Generally VFR conditions expected, although showers and thunderstorms remain possible, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds shift to southwest early and may gust around 15 knots during the day. Thursday-Thursday night...Generally VFR, except lower conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night. Southwest winds may gust 15-20 knots during the day Thursday. Friday-Saturday...Generally VFR. Winds shift to the northwest and may gust 20-25 knots during the day. && .MARINE... Sub-advisory winds/seas are expected through Tuesday morning. There is a chance for southerly winds to approach advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon, but given the marginal gusts and brief window for occurrence, not confident enough to issue an advisory at the moment. A chance of showers exists during the morning, with increasing chances for storms during the afternoon. Should storms develop, erratic/gusty winds and locally higher waves should be anticipated in their proximity. Outlook... Tuesday night-Saturday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels through the period, although winds may gust around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, which could produce locally higher winds and waves should they occur. Rip Currents... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents remains moderate through Tuesday. A long period easterly swell is expected to continue through most of the day Tuesday, however winds are expected to become more southerly during the afternoon. Despite the more southerly wind component, wind speeds are expected to increase and this combined with the long period easterly swell should result in an elevated rip current risk. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse/Robertson Near Term...CMS/Gorse Short Term...CMS Long Term...Robertson Aviation...CMS/Gorse/Robertson Marine...CMS/Gorse/Robertson  FXUS61 KPHI 081936 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 336 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift east of New England through Sunday. Meanwhile, a front remains nearly stalled to our south with a weak low pressure system off the North Carolina coast. Another area of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region Monday into early Tuesday, with an associated cold front moving through our region during Tuesday. High pressure briefly builds in later Tuesday and Wednesday, then the next area of low pressure and associated cold front moves through Thursday. High pressure then follows for Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure remains along the coast of the Northeast northward into eastern Canada, downstream of a rather high-amplitude midlevel ridge with an axis from Ontario southward into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a weak surface low in the Southeast remains in step with a midlevel perturbation generally cut off from the stronger flow well to the north. This fairly stagnant pattern will continue for the next 24 hours, though models are generally hinting at a northward push of the aforementioned surface low and associated midlevel vorticity maxima. Overall, this means that there should be an increase in (lower-level) cloud cover from south to north...very slowly...over the next 24 hours. The tendency for the operational models is to keep the precipitation to the south of the CWA through tonight, except for maybe our border counties with WFO AKQ. As such, lowered PoPs slightly in most areas and kept them capped at low-chance values for Talbot/Caroline/Sussex Counties and adjacent areas through the night. Any precipitation that does occur should be quite light. Main question tonight is fog formation. Agree with previous shift that the somewhat stronger winds tonight may prevent more widespread development of fog. Moreover, guidance is not overly optimistic about its development (versus, say, low stratus near/off the DE/southern NJ coasts). Cannot rule fog out entirely, but chances look too low for mention at this point. Kept forecast lows quite close to continuity. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... More of the same is in the cards for Sunday, with just a gradual shift northward with the thicker clouds, lower temperatures, and higher PoPs during the day. Models are quite hesitant in pushing the stronger lift and associated precipitation northward through the day, and this makes sense given the strength/origin of the surface high to the north. In addition, models are usually too aggressive bringing precipitation northward into retreating surface highs on the East Coast. For these reasons, either kept PoPs close to the previous forecast or reduced them somewhat (especially in the north). Thicker/lower clouds should slowly creep northward through the day and will have some impact on temperatures, though to what spatial extent remains somewhat unclear. Used a blend of continuity and the latest better-performing statistical/deterministic guidance for now. There will likely be some error with the position of the lower clouds through the day, and hourly/max temperature forecasts near this gradient are subject to larger error, as a result. A stiff east wind will redevelop during the day, and may become gusty at times by afternoon (20-25+ mph). The strongest winds will be near the coast, where temperatures will also be cooler (given the onshore flow). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Summary...Unsettled especially Monday and Thursday. Synoptic Overview...A ridge axis to our north and east will result in surface high pressure shifting more offshore of the New England coast into Monday. A strong trough moving through the Midwest Sunday night slides across the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, meanwhile a lead trough looks to get absorbed into it. The trough aloft tries to take on a negative tilt later Monday as a cold front drives across our region Tuesday. The flow aloft then backs more to the west and southwest during mid-week, however the next trough is quickly arriving for Thursday with the potential for surface low development on the triple point in our vicinity. The trough aloft lingers Friday into Saturday, however surface high pressure is forecast to build in. For Sunday night and Monday...The remnants of an upper-level trough in the Ohio Valley is forecast to merge with a trough swinging across the Great Lakes region Sunday night with some additional amplification taking place on Monday. Deep-layered moisture will be in place ahead of this feature, with precipitable water values around 2 inches across our area. The flow in the lower levels will be veering with height, setting the stage for an initial shot of low- level warm air advection along with isentropic lift. This combined with the advection of much higher theta-e air and the passage of a short wave should result in a zone of heavier rain from south to north Sunday night into Monday morning. There may be limited instability therefore thunder is less certain. There may be somewhat of a lull later Monday morning into the afternoon, then another more organized round of showers and potentially embedded thunder Monday night as the cold front arrives. For the Sunday night into Monday time frame, storm motions may be such for a more south to north movement and therefore perhaps some training occurs. If this were to become realized, enhancement to the rainfall amounts will occur and therefore increasing the localized flood threat. A southeasterly low- level flow Monday could enhance the rainfall in the upslope areas of eastern Pennsylvania. For Tuesday and Wednesday...An upper-level trough moves into the Northeast and may take on a negative tilt Tuesday, with a cold front moving off the coast during the morning. This will quickly end the showers and embedded thunder, with improving conditions in the afternoon as drier air begins to advect in across the area. The flow aloft backs some for Wednesday with surface high pressure moving across the region, however the next system will already be approaching Wednesday night. Some showers may start arriving into our far southern areas later Wednesday with a warm front lifting northward and a weak surface low along it. Overall, much of this time frame is anticipated to be dry. For Thursday...The next upper-level trough amplifies into the Northeast, driving a cold front across our region during the day. Deep moisture advecting northward ahead of the front coupled with large scale ascent will result in a decent amount of showers and some thunderstorms. An onshore flow in the lowest levels though ahead of this system initially may hinder the overall instability during the day, however this will be monitored given the strength of the incoming trough as some robust convection cannot be ruled out. Drying takes place at night, especially late, as high pressure starts to build in. For Friday and Saturday...An upper-level trough will be in place, however a zone of surface high pressure is forecast to be over our area for much of this time frame. A frontal zone may be lurking to our northwest later Saturday, and depending on the timing of this feature a few showers/thunder could occur across parts of the area. For now, opted to keep much of this time frame dry at this point. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through this evening...VFR with east winds 7 to 15 kts. Some gusts to 20 kts may occur through sunset, especially at PHL and ACY. High confidence. Overnight...Mainly VFR with east to northeast winds around or below 10 kts. There is some potential for low stratus and/or fog at MIV/ACY, but confidence is low. Sunday...Mainly VFR at the Philly terminals, RDG, and ABE (but with lowering CIGs with time). MIV and ACY may have periods of sub-VFR as the lower clouds approach from the south/east. Winds easterly 7 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts or so (potentially stronger near the coast). Outlook... Sunday night and Monday...Periods of MVFR/IFR with showers and some possible thunderstorms. Times of heavier rain will result in at least IFR visibility. East to southeast winds around 10 knots. Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with showers mainly early, then improving to VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots quickly becoming west to northwest and increasing to 10-15 knots with possible gusts to around 20 knots. Wednesday...VFR. East to southeast winds 5-10 knots. Thursday...Times of MVFR/IFR probable with some showers and thunderstorms. East winds around 10 knots, becoming south to southwest. && .MARINE... Onshore flow has increased today, and winds are approaching advisory levels on the NJ/DE coastal waters at this time. Seas are also approaching 5 feet. Advisory conditions will commence and progress northward overnight, likely reaching all Atlantic waters after midnight. Have moved up the timing of the advisory for the northern New Jersey waters given the faster timing of the simulated winds in today's deterministic model runs. Advisory conditions will continue through tomorrow as well, with gusts approaching 30 kts at times and seas generally 5 to 8 feet. Winds will likely reach advisory criteria on lower Delaware Bay this evening and are expected to begin on upper Delaware Bay on Sunday morning, continuing through the day before diminishing late. Have issued advisories for Delaware Bay based on this expected timing as well. There is a chance of fog again tonight, though seemingly lower than last night. Will monitor this closely. There is also a chance of showers tonight and Sunday, mainly for Delaware Bay and the Delaware coastal waters. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected, however the winds are expected to be below 25 knots Monday and Tuesday. It will take awhile for the seas to subside below 5 feet. Delaware Bay should remain below advisory criteria. Wednesday and Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions look to begin Wednesday night or Thursday. The wind gusts may remain just below advisory criteria, however seas on the ocean are forecast to reach or exceed 5 feet on Thursday. Rip Currents... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is moderate through this evening. Persistent onshore flow and building seas will result in an increased risk, which should continue for Sunday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ452-453. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ454-455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ431. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse Near Term...CMS Short Term...CMS Long Term...Gorse Aviation...CMS/Gorse Marine...CMS/Gorse