FXUS64 KMOB 151035 AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 435 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2013 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...THE REGION IS BLANKETED BY A LOW STRATUS DECK EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH IS AROUND 1000 FEET THICK ACCORDING TO THE GOES-E CLOUD THICKNESS PRODUCT. THEREFORE...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY FOR THE CLOUD DECK TO BREAK UP AS DAYTIME MIXING PEAKS AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TODAY GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL CAA...AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. A BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL GUST TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES...ADDING AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL ELONGATE INTO A BROAD RIDGE TONIGHT...EXPANDING EAST INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65. A FREEZE IS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND WITH LOW 30S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME MID 20S POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR INLAND SE MS/SW AL. 34/JFB (MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL TEND TO KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS MOVING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL TEND TO BRING A WARMING TREND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WE EXPECT A LIGHT FREEZE TO HANG ON OVER MOST OF THE REGION NORTH OF A LINE FROM LEAKESVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO EVERGREEN ALABAMA ON MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD CALL IT SEASONABLY COOL. THE 15/00Z SPECTRAL PHYSICAL MODELS ARE CALCULATING A SYNCHRONOUS POSITIONING OF FEATURES AFFECTING OUR REGION....ESPECIALLY THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS BRINGS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH KEEP NIL POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL DRY AIR SETTLES IN. LIMITED ADVECTION PROCESSES WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SHUT DOWN. WE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. 77/BD && .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN CHILLY DUE TO A VERY DRY DEEP DRY LAYER ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS ENABLING OPTIMUM RADIATION COOLING. WAVENUMBER 5 PROG IS INDICATING A QUASISTATIONARY TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER...WILL ALSO SEE THE GULF OPENING UP LATER IN THE WEEK AS THAT ANTICYCLONE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CYCLOGENESIS FORMS UP OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION INN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. 77/BD && .AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...MVFR CIGS BLANKET THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS LIKELY AT ALL FORECAST TERMINALS BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY...GUSTING TO 20 KT AT TIMES. 34/JFB && .MARINE...THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR INSHORE WATERS/NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH THE ADVISORY DROPPING AT 6PM FOR THE 20-60 NM GULF ZONES. SEAS PEAK AT 4-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 5 TO 7 FEET BEYOND 20 NM THIS MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...ALLOWING A PREDOMINATE ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP. 34/JFB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 52 32 60 39 66 / 00 00 05 00 00 PENSACOLA 53 35 60 40 65 / 05 00 05 00 05 DESTIN 53 38 58 43 63 / 05 00 05 00 05 EVERGREEN 49 29 60 31 65 / 05 00 05 00 00 WAYNESBORO 49 27 60 30 65 / 00 00 05 00 05 CAMDEN 47 28 59 32 64 / 05 00 05 05 05 CRESTVIEW 51 30 60 29 67 / 05 00 05 00 00 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM... && $$  FXUS64 KMOB 152142 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 342 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Upper air map analysis show complex trof axis aligned from the Great Lakes, southward over the Mississippi Valley, then southwest across the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma to the southern reaches of the Gulf of California. East of this feature, forecasters continue to see east Pacific moisture being tapped with a large area of clouds streaming northeast over the deep south. Surface cold front has settled into the central Gulf with high pressure over Texas beginning to expand eastward into the deep south. Very little change in the forecast upper level geo-potential height fields tonight which should maintain a modest percentage of opaque mid to high based cloud cover into tonight. The degree of cloud thickness though may lower somewhat as band of strong upper level westerlies over the southeast US begins to lift out through the night. Have decided to go a few degrees above guidance on overnight lows out of respect for clouds which removes radiational cooling component. During the day Saturday, the southwest portion of the upper trof axis over the Gulf of California begins to open up and lift northeast. Even so, the high level flow remains from a southwest direction which keeps potential of clouds in place, mixing in with sun at times. Surface high pressure slips into the southeast US Saturday which favors a gradual moderation in daytime highs as winds become more southeasterly in direction by later in the day. /10 .SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/... Surface high pressure moves off the southeastern sea board leading to the development of a southeasterly surface windflow. Winds aloft back to the southwest as the deep upstream trough slowly propagates eastward and a warm frontal boundary pushes northward from the Gulf of Mexico and into the forecast area Sunday afternoon. As a result, a warm and wet pattern sets up across the region with precipitable water amounts climbing as high as two inches over coastal counties. Strong warm advection will provide enough isentropic ascent to produce widespread rain. Upper level dynamics provided by minor shortwave troughs moving through the very moist upper level flow should be enough to generate some embedded showers from time to time. The potential exists for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from Sunday through Monday night. Widespread fog development is also likely especially near the coast Sunday night and Monday night as very warm, moist air advects over our much cooler coastal waters. Temperatures during this time will trend well above climatological norms. /08 .LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Models are again divergent on the long term solution. The GFS is advertising enough upper level support to push a cold front across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. However, the ECMWF is not as progressive with the low pressure system to our west and keeps us in the wet...soupy pattern through Thursday. Trended forecast more towards GFS as ECMWF seems to be overly deepening upper levels waves off the U.S. southwest coast which in-turn leads to a slower eastern progression. Temperatures expected to trend near normal Wednesday and Wednesday night but warmer than normal as a southeasterly windflow develops in advance of the next approaching cold front. /08 && .MARINE...By Saturday night as a warm, moist, onshore flow evolves atop cooler water temperatures over bays, sounds and near shore waters, the stage would be set for the development of advective type fog. A better coverage of widespread and potentially dense fog, likely limiting visibility to below a mile or less, will likely lead to an increased probability of hazardous boating impacts Sunday night through Tuesday morning. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 36 56 50 71 64 73 62 74 / 10 0 10 80 70 70 40 50 Pensacola 40 57 52 71 65 73 65 75 / 10 0 10 60 70 60 40 40 Destin 42 57 54 70 65 72 66 74 / 10 0 10 50 60 50 30 40 Evergreen 33 58 43 70 62 73 62 75 / 10 0 10 70 70 60 50 60 Waynesboro 30 56 41 68 60 70 61 70 / 0 0 10 90 70 70 60 50 Camden 30 56 42 67 61 70 61 71 / 0 0 10 70 70 70 60 60 Crestview 36 58 44 71 63 73 62 76 / 10 0 10 50 60 50 30 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob  FXUS64 KMOB 310958 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 458 AM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Increasing low level moisture from the low level southerly flow over the region and subsidence from the ridge aloft has caused some fog development overnight. Overall coverage is patchy but should be more widespread over our Alabama counties generally west of the Tombigbee River and Southeast Mississippi. The fog depth is expected to remain fairly shallow, so should burn of within a couple hours of sunrise. As the southern portion of deepening upper level trough over the southwestern states digs southeastward, the upper level ridge axis is shifting east of the region which will allow upper level cloud cover to gradually advect into the area. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward from the Great Lakes into Texas will strenghten and propagate eastward. As a result, the gradient tightens and the southerly wind flow and moisture over the area increases. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to persist along area beaches through Friday and a rough surf should be expected to develop by Wednesday night. Tonight showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the aforementioned cold front that is projected to move from Texas into the western edge of Mississippi toward the end of the period. Most of the convection is expected to be along a squall line to our west at this time but bands of showers and perhaps a few isolated severe thunderstorms could develop out ahead over our SE Mississippi Counties. /08 .SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Models continue to advertise a rapidly deepening and potent shortwave trough to our west that will eject eastward and push a cold front through the area tomorrow. Data analysis and satellite trends support this evolution. Since the system is still developing, the biggest uncertainty has been the timing of the squall line. The GFS continues to offer the fastest solution while other models are slower. Will lean more with the ECMWF this forecast cycle as it appears to have had a better handle in projecting the evolution of the upstream shortwave trough on previous model runs and had projected more deepening resulting in a slower eastward progression. Thus will stay the course with the expectation that the primary risk for severe thunderstorms will occur along the squall line impacting Southeast Mississippi around 10 AM and moving across our Western Florida and South Central Alabama Counties by 6 PM. There still remains the possibility that a few isolated severe storms could develop out ahead of the squall line and these supercell thunderstorms will pose a higher risk for large hail and tornado development. Otherwise, the greatest risk will be for damaging wind gusts associated with the squall line and perhaps a brief tornado or two. Rainfall along this band is expected to be intense with amounts totaling 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible which could lead to flooding along poor drainage areas. The actual front is expected to push through the region from west to east Thursday afternoon through evening time frame. A northwesterly wind flow will follow in the fronts wake bringing cooler temperatures and drier conditions. /08 .LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...In the dry, post cold frontal airmass, temperatures will trend cooler than seasonal norms through Saturday night. By Sunday, surface high pressure shifts east along the Eastern Seaboard allowing for the development of a moist southeasterly return flow and warmer temperatures. Sunday night through Tuesday, guidance begins to diverge in handling a series of shortwaves digging into an upper trough over the Northern and Central Plains. The ECMWF is advertising a series of weaker shortwaves spread out more temporally. With the waves also maintaining a track generally north of our area. Our area will be under a more moderate southerly flow off the Gulf during this time, which would create wetter and warmer conditions into mid week. The GFS, on the other hand, digs a sharper upper trough further south over the central states. This trough is projected to become negatively tilted before pushing a strong front quickly across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This solution would produce a possible chance of severe weather Have went between the two solutions for the forecast, tightening the more spread out ECMWF's solution, but not quite the quick passage, and potentially severe weather forecast by the GFS. Both models are advertising temps above seasonal through the period, until the front moves over and south of the area. However, frontal passage is not projected until after this forecast period. /16 && .MARINE...Onshore flow will strengthen into tonight ahead of a front expected to cross area waters late Thursday into Thursday night. Offshore flow follows, with moderate to strong flow maintained into Saturday. A small craft advisory will be issued with this package, lasting into Friday. Surface high pressure moves east over the area Saturday through Sunday, bringing a return of onshore flow Monday. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 71 76 55 65 45 71 49 / 10 50 90 30 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 81 73 78 60 68 49 71 55 / 10 20 90 50 10 0 0 0 Destin 81 73 78 64 69 51 73 57 / 10 20 90 60 40 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 68 76 57 64 43 70 46 / 10 20 90 40 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 83 68 73 51 61 42 68 46 / 10 80 90 20 10 0 0 0 Camden 83 68 75 54 61 43 68 45 / 10 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 Crestview 85 67 79 61 68 43 72 48 / 0 20 90 60 30 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob  FXUS64 KMOB 311006 CCA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 458 AM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Increasing moisture from the low level southerly flow over the region and subsidence from the ridge aloft has caused some fog development overnight. Overall coverage is patchy but should be more widespread over our Alabama counties generally west of the Tombigbee River and Southeast Mississippi. The fog depth is expected to remain fairly shallow, so should burn off within a couple hours of sunrise. As the southern portion of a deepening upper level trough over the southwestern states digs southeastward, the upper level ridge axis is shifting east of the region which will allow upper level cloud cover to gradually advect into the area. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward from the Great Lakes into Texas will strengthen and propagate eastward. As a result, the gradient tightens and the southerly wind flow and moisture over the area increases. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to persist along area beaches through Friday and a rough surf should be expected to develop by Wednesday night. Tonight showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the aforementioned cold front that is projected to move from Texas into the western edge of Mississippi toward the end of the period. Most of the convection is expected to be along a squall line to our west at this time but bands of showers and perhaps a few isolated severe thunderstorms could develop out ahead over our SE Mississippi Counties. /08 .SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Models continue to advertise a rapidly deepening and potent shortwave trough to our west that will eject eastward and push a cold front through the area tomorrow. Data analysis and satellite trends support this evolution. Since the system is still developing, the biggest uncertainty has been the timing of the squall line. The GFS continues to offer the fastest solution while other models are slower. Will lean more with the ECMWF this forecast cycle as it appears to have had a better handle in projecting the evolution of the upstream shortwave trough on previous model runs and had projected more deepening resulting in a slower eastward progression. Thus will stay the course with the expectation that the primary risk for severe thunderstorms will occur along the squall line impacting Southeast Mississippi around 10 AM and moving across our Western Florida and South Central Alabama Counties by 6 PM. There still remains the possibility that a few isolated severe storms could develop out ahead of the squall line and these supercell thunderstorms will pose a higher risk for large hail and tornado development. Otherwise, the greatest risk will be for damaging wind gusts associated with the squall line and perhaps a brief tornado or two. Rainfall along this band is expected to be intense with amounts totaling 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible which could lead to flooding along poor drainage areas. The actual front is expected to push through the region from west to east Thursday afternoon through evening time frame. A northwesterly wind flow will follow in the fronts wake bringing cooler temperatures and drier conditions. /08 .LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...In the dry, post cold frontal airmass, temperatures will trend cooler than seasonal norms through Saturday night. By Sunday, surface high pressure shifts east along the Eastern Seaboard allowing for the development of a moist southeasterly return flow and warmer temperatures. Sunday night through Tuesday, guidance begins to diverge in handling a series of shortwaves digging into an upper trough over the Northern and Central Plains. The ECMWF is advertising a series of weaker shortwaves spread out more temporally. With the waves also maintaining a track generally north of our area. Our area will be under a more moderate southerly flow off the Gulf during this time, which would create wetter and warmer conditions into mid week. The GFS, on the other hand, digs a sharper upper trough further south over the central states. This trough is projected to become negatively tilted before pushing a strong front quickly across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This solution would produce a possible chance of severe weather Have went between the two solutions for the forecast, tightening the more spread out ECMWF's solution, but not quite the quick passage, and potentially severe weather forecast by the GFS. Both models are advertising temps above seasonal through the period, until the front moves over and south of the area. However, frontal passage is not projected until after this forecast period. /16 && .MARINE...Onshore flow will strengthen into tonight ahead of a front expected to cross area waters late Thursday into Thursday night. Offshore flow follows, with moderate to strong flow maintained into Saturday. A small craft advisory will be issued with this package, lasting into Friday. Surface high pressure moves east over the area Saturday through Sunday, bringing a return of onshore flow Monday. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 71 76 55 65 45 71 49 / 10 50 90 30 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 81 73 78 60 68 49 71 55 / 10 20 90 50 10 0 0 0 Destin 81 73 78 64 69 51 73 57 / 10 20 90 60 40 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 68 76 57 64 43 70 46 / 10 20 90 40 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 83 68 73 51 61 42 68 46 / 10 80 90 20 10 0 0 0 Camden 83 68 75 54 61 43 68 45 / 10 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 Crestview 85 67 79 61 68 43 72 48 / 0 20 90 60 30 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob