FXUS62 KMLB 030840 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 340 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT...THE QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MODIFY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SWING AROUND TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND EAST BY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BY AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS WILL AFFECT THE COAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CANAVERAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT... OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST. WED-THU...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST AND IS PICKED UP BY THE LARGER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST. STILL SOME SMALL DISCREPANCIES ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE GULF LOW THAT DEVELOPS AS A RESULT WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE STRONGER. PREFERENCE HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE WEAKER GFS WHICH THE ECMWF HAS OCCASIONALLY AGREED WITH SO WILL CONTINUE ALONG THOSE LINES. MODELS HAVE ALL CONTINUE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK WARM FRONT TYPE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OVER THE REGION AND LARGER AREA OF MID-HIGH MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS. PRECIP MAY HAVE SOME INITIAL TROUBLE GETTING GOING UNTIL LOWER LEVEL MOISTENS UP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR BEST RAIN CHANCES TO BE WED NIGHT-THURS AS WEAK LOW CROSSES THE STATE AND CONSOLIDATES WITH LARGER SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THURS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING POPS 60% PLUS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL-KISSIMMEE NORTHWARDS WED NIGHT WITH POPS TRENDING DOWN TO AROUND 30% ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...THOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THIS AREA. POPS 60-70% AREAWIDE THURS WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TAPERING FROM N TO S IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND ATLANTIC INTO THURS NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS MORE NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL COMING IN RATHER STABLE DURING THE PERIOD AS CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE INCREASING AND ANY REAL INSTABILITY LOOKS ELEVATED. HOWEVER WHILE THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTHWARD...SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES WILL STILL TRAVERSE THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM A COUPLED 100KT SOUTHERN GULF/150KT+ EAST COAST JET. THINK A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH LIKELY TO BE GUSTY GIVEN THE 30-40KT 925MB WIND MAX MOVING THROUGH THURS MORN. FRIDAY...PATTERN REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE CONUS AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CAROLINA/GA COAST BY FRI EVENING. WHILE SOME SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING COMES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL VEER LOW LEVEL FLOW EAST-NORTHEAST BY THE EVENING KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. INITIAL NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI MORNING BEFORE WINDS VEER WILL BE ENOUGH TO HOLD HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH MID-UPPER 60S TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE. OVERNIGHT LOWS QUICKLY MODERATED WITH MID-UPPER 40S INTERIOR AND 50S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. SAT-MON...MOST OF THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF TO OUR EAST LEAVING ITS AXIS ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO SUNDAY. THE SHIFT IN FLOW TAPS INTO SOME DRIER AIR WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ON SAT WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ON SUN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INTERIOR AND 50S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH BY LATE SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES CREEPING BACK INTO THE FORECAST LATE SUN NIGHT OR MON. && .AVIATION... VFR TODAY/TONIGHT BUT WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE FL035 KMLB-KSUA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE COASTAL SITES TONIGHT. && .MARINE... CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...WILL KEEP A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM UNTIL 10 AM...SINCE BUOY 41009 (OUTSIDE THE GULF STREAM) RECENTLY HAD 15-20 KNOT NORTH WINDS AND 6 FOOT SEAS. WILL ALSO MENTION EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR SHORE FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. OTHERWISE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ELONGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND EAST TONIGHT...WHILE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WED-THURS...PREVAILING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS DURING THE DAY WITH MODELS HINTING AT A COASTAL TROUGH BACKING WINDS NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE PENINSULA WED NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FLOW TO BECOME CHAOTIC OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON EXACT STRENGTH/POSITION OF LOW. LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC THURS MORN BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NW WIND SURGE BRINGING WINDS UP TO 15-20KTS BY EVENING AND 20-25KTS OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRI. SEAS 3-4FT WITH UP TO 5FT OFFSHORE...QUICKLY BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 8FT OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE THURS NIGHT WITH WIND SURGE. FRI...NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BECOMING EAST 10-15KTS IN THE EVENING A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARDS INTO NORTH FLORIDA. COMBINATION OF MORE DISTANT SWELL MOVING IN ALONG WITH LOCAL WIND MAX COUNTERING GULF STREAM WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD SEAS TO 9-11FT OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH 6-8FT NEAR THE COAST. SAT-SUN...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS SAT BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SUN. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH WEAKENING WINDS...7-8FT OVER THE GULF STREAM SAT MORNING SUBSIDING TO 2-4FT EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 63 50 66 56 / 0 10 40 70 MCO 68 51 72 58 / 0 10 20 70 MLB 67 54 72 63 / 0 10 10 50 VRB 69 55 75 64 / 0 10 10 40 LEE 66 51 68 55 / 0 10 40 70 SFB 67 50 70 56 / 0 10 30 70 ORL 67 52 71 58 / 0 10 30 70 FPR 69 55 74 63 / 0 10 10 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LASCODY LONG TERM....MOSES  FXUS62 KMLB 241401 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 902 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 .DISCUSSION... ...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... ...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THRU THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND... TODAY/TONIGHT...STUBBORN STRATUS/PATCHY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. DEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 915MHZ CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOW DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NEAR THE SURFACE THROUGH 10.0KFT. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE L/M80S AREAWIDE. WILL MONITOR CLOUD THICKNESS AS THIS COULD PLAY A ROLE IF TEMPERATURES DON'T QUITE REACH WHAT IS FORECAST. CONDITIONS DRY WITH POP CHANCES 10 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLES IN THE GULF STREAM OFFSHORE. SE/SSE LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING AT THE SURFACE ARE FORECAST TO BACK MORE ESE/SE THRU THE DAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 MPH...EXCEPT 10-15 MPH ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST. WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U60S...EXCEPT L70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. MOS GUIDANCE HINTS AGAIN AT SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. && .AVIATION...AREAS OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING ON CHRISTMAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. ANY STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDS THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z WITH GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BREAKING UP OF THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK INTO LATE MORNING. VFR CONDS AND A DRY FORECAST EXPECTED OTHERWISE. ESE/SE SFC WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. && .MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SSE/SE WINDS 10-15 KTS...PERHAPS A SOLID 15 KTS AT TIMES WELL OFFSHORE. STUBBORN LONG PERIOD AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS 3.5-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6 FT OFFSHORE TODAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE. FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS GULF STREAM/OFFSHORE. && .CLIMATE...ALL OF THE PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES WILL LIKELY SET NEW RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST NEAR RECORD VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WARM TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO FALL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... DEC-24 DEC-25 DEC-26 DEC-27 DAB 84(1981) 82(1988) 82(1987) 82(1941) MCO 85(2014) 85(1924) 85(1921) 86(1921) MLB 85(2014) 87(1981) 86(1941) 83(1981) VRB 87(2014) 85(1997) 85(1981) 85(1981) RECORD WARM LOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... DEC-24 DEC-25 DEC-26 DEC-27 DAB 67(1997) 69(1997) 68(1964) 69(1942) MCO 67(2006) 69(1997) 70(1911) 69(1942) MLB 71(1987) 72(1997) 71(1984) 71(1942) VRB 72(2014) 71(1997) 72(1984) 73(1942) && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SEDLOCK/JOHNSON  FXUS62 KMLB 040812 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 312 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER NEXT WEEK... CURRENT...CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AGAIN FOR ONE MORE MORNING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND L70S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. SOUTH- SOUTHEAST LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SMOLDERING PRESCRIBED BURNS...BUT AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE THE BIGGER THREAT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH SSE- SSW SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE WE MAY SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS DO NOT FEEL A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM...THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARD/INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY BUT THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. AS WITH PREVIOUS WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS SEASON WE WILL HAVE IMPRESSIVE JET STREAM WIND FIELDS WITH 80-100 KT WINDS ALOFT JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE FAVORABLE RIGHT- REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA PROMOTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL POOL TOWARD 2 INCHES AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS. GREATEST CHANCES SOUTH OF I- 4 SLOWLY INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW CELLS COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BUT IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 87 FOR DAB, MCO AND VRB WITH MLB COMING IN AT 86 FOR A HIGH MAX. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOT REACH THESE VALUES THOUGH MLB MAY COME THE CLOSEST. CLOUD THICKNESS AND ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE M-U70S NORTH OF I-4 WITH U70S/L80S ALL IN PLAY FURTHER SOUTHWARD. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M40S NORTH OF I-4...U40S/L50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. AREAS FROM MLB TO SUA ALONG THE COAST WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 54 TO 60 DEGREES FOR MINS. FRI-SAT...POST FRONTAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP BY FRI AFTERNOON...AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT TO THE U50 TO L60S WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MARINE SOURCE STRATO CU MOVING WELL INLAND AS WINDS VEER INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. AN EAST COAST TROUGH WL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FRI AS A RESULT OF DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN PENINSULA COMBINING WITH MORE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE MARINE AREA. PRESENCE OF THIS CONVERGENT AREA WL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND TO SOME DEGREE INLAND WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...ESP ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE SE STATES WL RAPIDLY ACCENTUATE THE EC TROUGH WITH RAPID SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY EAST OFTHE STATE OVER THE MARINE AREA. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE MORE SEWARD THAN THE EC AND THE CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS THE TWO SOLNS WITH A MENTIONABLE RAIN CHC INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHC IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. NEXT WEEK...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK BEGIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOL FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL AIR AROUND WED WILL BRING 30S TO A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION... PATCHY FOG PROSPECTS LOOK LOW THIS MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND PRESS THROUGH THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MORNING SSE/S WINDS WILL VEER TO SSW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME NEAR BREEZY/GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS. MAINLY SHOWERY PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. MVFR IN SHRA'S WITH SOME IFR CIGS NEAR THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT FOR CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ECFL. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SSE/S WINDS WILL PROMPT CONTINUANCE OF CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC TODAY...REMAINING 15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS NEARER THE COAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...OCNLY TO GALE FORCE. WILL INITIATE AN SCA NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR 00Z/7PM AND 03Z/10PM FOR MARINE LEGS FURTHER SOUTH. WILL ALLOW FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND UPGRADE TO A GALE WATCH/WARNING FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD THE NEED ARISE. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE TODAY. TONIGHT THRU 12Z FRI MORNING...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD (NORTH TO SOUTH) 7-10 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF ST. LUCIE AND 5-8 FT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR POINTS FURTHER SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FILLS IN SOUTHEASTWARD. FAST OFFSHORE-MOVING CELLS WITH MAIN THREATS LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS ALL IN PLAY FOR LATER TODAY/EVENING. FRI-SUN...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS. A TEMPORARY LULL IN GRADIENT WINDS DURING SAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SEA STATE...HOWEVER RAPID GENESIS OF A LOW OFF THE FL EAST COAST TO BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GULF WL IMPROVE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 43 58 48 / 100 90 10 30 MCO 82 50 59 46 / 80 80 10 20 MLB 83 54 62 53 / 40 70 10 20 VRB 84 56 61 56 / 30 60 10 20 LEE 76 44 59 44 / 100 90 0 10 SFB 80 47 58 46 / 90 80 10 20 ORL 80 48 59 51 / 80 80 10 20 FPR 84 56 62 55 / 20 60 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM- FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM- VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM- VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST  FXUS62 KMLB 221843 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 243 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES LATE TODAY WITH ISOLD-SCT STORMS... ...TURNING DRY FROM LATE SAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK... CURRENT-TONIGHT...CAPE WIND PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 6.5KFT. ABOVE THIS LEVEL WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 10.0KFT. WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS IN THIS COLUMN. MORNING KXMR SOUNDING STILL RELATIVELY DRY WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.94 INCHES AND THIS IS WELL BELOW WHAT THE GFS FORECASTS FOR AROUND 12Z ~1.40 INCHES. NEXRAD CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. STEERING FLOW THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNIFORMLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCAL WRF-ARW/HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING THRU LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCT- NMRS SHRA'S/ISOLD-SCT TSRA'S WILL PUSH OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN FAIRLY POOR...THOUGH 500MB TEMPS AT -11C/-12C SUGGEST WE CAN OBTAIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALSO THANKS IN PART TO INCREASING MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING AND EVENTUAL PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE MOST ACTIVE AND PUSH SCT CONVECTION INTO ECFL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STEERING COMPONENT WILL TAKE ACTIVITY OFF OF THE EAST COAST WHERE MARINERS WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT FOR APPROACHING STORMS. MAIN THREATS REMAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH. HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING FROM AROUND LATE EVENING AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINS IN THE M60S. WINDS DIMINISHING TO MAINLY LIGHT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT VEERING TO THE SW/WSW. SAT...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TAIL-END APPENDAGE DRAGGING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 1 INCH AREAWIDE AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOCAL MODELS TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT A SCHC FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST OF A LEESBURG...KISSIMMEE...BASINGER LINE. STILL FAIRLY COOL IN THE MID-LEVELS SO CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS ENTIRELY. HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO REACH M80S MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER NRN-CTRL FL WILL SLIDE ESE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC...WITH WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO N-NE AND INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. MINIMAL COOLING IN SUNDAY MAX TEMPS INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER AIR MASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER. MINS IN THE L-M60S SAT NIGHT WILL WARM TO THE L80S ALONG THE COAST AND M-U80S INLAND ON SUN. M-U60S FOR MINS SUN NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW. MON-FRI (PREV)...SFC HIGH NEAR THE MID ATLC TO START THE WEEK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MID WEEK WITH LOW LVL FLOW VEERING FROM THE E TO SE. FOR THU INTO FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL ELONGATE NORTH OF THE AND RETURN LOW LVL FLOW TO THE EAST. FLAT MID LVL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH 00Z GFS MODEL HINTS THAT A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE MOVES INLAND EACH DAY. 00Z ECM APPEARS DRIER SO WILL NOT INSERT ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S CSTL TO THE MID 80S INTERIOR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...SE/S WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH S/SSW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD THICKNESS WITH LOWERING BASES AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS/MOISTENS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON THROUGH VARIOUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THIS WILL PROMOTE SCT-NMRS SHRA'S/ISOLD-SCT TSRA'S ESPECIALLY LATE DAY/EVENING. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH BACK LATE DAY STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHT WINDS VEER TONIGHT TO SW/WSW. FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHTNING... DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS THE THREATS. && .MARINE...TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF IT INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS. MARINERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STORMS. WILL CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR OFFSHORE LEGS WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING 5-6 FT. SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE. LIGHT MORNING SSW WINDS WILL BACK TO SSE/SE WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 15-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC AND 10-15 KTS NEAR THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO SW/WSW IN RESPONSE TO THE BOUNDARY. A PERIOD TONIGHT OF WINDS OF 15-20 KTS IS LIKELY OFFSHORE AND 15 KTS CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS REMAINING CHOPPY. SAT...WSW/W WINDS AROUND 15 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AOB 10 KTS AS THE PGRAD RELAXES FOLLOWING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. ONLY A SCHC FOR A SHOWER ON THIS DAY. SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. SUN-WED...IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NE ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN/VEER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS SURFACE HIGH DROPS SE OVER THE ATLC...AND IT'S RIDGE AXIS SETTLED OVER ECFL. SEAS OF 3-4FT ON SUN WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3FT (OR 2-3FT) MON-WED. && .FIRE WEATHER...ON SAT...MIN RHS TO 40-45 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH W WINDS TO 10-15 MPH. FOR SUNDAY...MIN RHS 38-42 PCT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 64 83 65 81 / 60 20 10 0 MCO 65 87 64 87 / 50 10 0 10 MLB 67 85 66 82 / 60 20 10 10 VRB 66 84 65 83 / 60 20 10 10 LEE 66 84 63 86 / 40 10 0 10 SFB 65 86 64 85 / 50 20 10 10 ORL 66 85 64 85 / 50 10 0 10 FPR 65 85 64 83 / 60 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI  FXUS62 KMLB 112056 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 356 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 .DISCUSSION... Tonight...High pressure to the north will elongate eastward into the Atlc and winds will veer out of the east then southeast overnight. Airmass will remain fairly dry so rain chances look too low to mention. Isolated showers over the Atlc may increase in coverage a bit later tonight but should remain mostly offshore in the developing SE flow. Low temps in the low to mid 60s except upper 50s Okeechobee. Sunday...Increasing moisture and forced ascent will lead to widespread clouds and scattered to numerous showers developing. Have pushed back the timing for the highest rain chances to the afternoon. There should be scattered showers over the Atlc north of the Cape near the axis of an inverted sfc trough early in the day with precip breaking out over land during the day. Have adjusted PoPs down a bit showing 50-60 percent over land and limiting the 80 PoPs over the Atlc. Limited instability should prevent thunder across the north but warmer temps across the south combined with a slug of moisture lifting north and steep lapse rates may be sufficient to produce one or two storms across our southern counties. Sun Night-Mon Night...The mid-level flow will range from westerly to southwesterly during this time with various, weak, embedded shortwave impulses in the flow. PWAT values will average 1.30-1.50 inches across ECFL. At the surface, a weak boundary across the central peninsula along with overrunning moisture will allow for mostly cloudy skies with periods of light to moderate rainfall. A stronger cold frontal boundary will push across the area late Mon night bringing a gradual end to rainfall as well as drier air from the north. Cooler air aloft at 500 mb (-12C to -14C) will exist over the area. At the moment will keep thunder mention absent from the grids/zones, but cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder at some point Mon-Mon evening. PoPs remain elevated through the period, 30-40pct west to 50-60pct east Sun night, 60pct most areas Mon, and 50-60pct Mon night. Lows U50s/L60s Sun night and generally M-U50s Mon night except L60s Martin Cty. Highs Mon likely to vary due to cloud thickness/precip and generally M-U70s along I 4 with near 80 to 82 degrees further southward. .Previous Extended Forecast Discussion... Tuesday-Friday...large scale troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS will keep conditions dry and cooler than normal, other than a small lingering shower chances across the southern CWA early Tuesday. A reinforcing front drops through the CWA on Wednesday, with high pressure slowly settling south toward Florida through Friday. Some chilly min temps for mid March are expected from mid to late week. Current forecast shows mins in the 40s to L50s, and maxes generally in the 60s to the lower 70s for most of the CWA. && .AVIATION... VFR expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will be from the NE/ENE this afternoon and evening with breezy conditions mainly confined to the coastal terminals. Winds will decrease around 00Z this evening before gradually turning more from the E/ESE during the overnight hours. By 12Z on Sunday winds will be from the S/SSE. && .MARINE... Tonight...Winds will veer out of the east then southeast overnight as high pressure ridge axis to the north elongates eastward into the Atlc. Also, an inverted sfc trough will begin to form over north FL and the adjacent Atlc. The pressure gradient will support 15 knots of wind initially across the north with 10-15 knots across all the waters overnight. Will allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 4 pm as seas have likely fallen below 7 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard but will carry a Caution headline for seas up to 6 feet there. Sunday...A tricky wind forecast as inverted sfc trough is forecast to push into our northern and central waters. This will reduce the pressure gradient temporarily but a wedge of N/NE winds 15-20 knots is forecast to reach the Volusia waters in the afternoon so will probably need a Caution headline there. Across the south, southeast winds around 10 knots are expected. Seas 3-5 feet. Sun Night-Thu...Unsettled weather conditions thru Mon night with inverted troughing across the area and impulses aloft traversing the area from the GOMEX providing periods of light to moderate precip. Cannot rule out isold thunder Mon-Mon night. A stronger cold front will push through the area Mon overnight gradually clearing out the precip and allowing drier air to move into the area again Tue-Thu as high pressure builds into the area. Expect coastal troughing along the east coast Sun night allowing for a degree of variability for onshore wind direction, then a weakening gradient during the day on Mon with generally light winds. Offshore flow expected Mon evening with wind speeds increasing and SCEC conds possible overnight away from the coast. Moderate to fresh NW-WNW winds are expected Tuesday-Tuesday night ahead of a strong reinforcing cold frontal passage Wednesday. A strong NW to northerly wind surge behind this front looks pretty certain to produce high seas and resultant SCA conditions, especially well offshore. && .Fire Weather... Tue-Thu...Both cooler/drier air expected behind a cold front moving into the area Mon overnight and again behind another front late Wed. We may see some afternoon RHs dip into the M-U30s for a couple of hours Tue afternoon along I 4, then U20s/L30s across much of interior Wed-Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 75 62 75 / 10 60 60 60 MCO 61 80 62 79 / 0 50 40 60 MLB 64 78 63 80 / 10 60 50 60 VRB 64 79 63 81 / 0 60 50 60 LEE 61 77 60 76 / 10 50 30 60 SFB 61 78 62 79 / 10 50 50 60 ORL 63 79 62 78 / 10 50 40 60 FPR 63 80 61 82 / 0 60 50 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelly LONG TERM....Sedlock AVIATION...Combs  FXUS62 KMLB 271955 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 255 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 .DISCUSSION... ...Hazardous Boating and Beach Conditions Tonight... ...Warmer Than Normal Temperatures Expected Through This Weekend and Well Into Next Week... Current-Tonight... The 915 MHZ Cape wind profilers continue to show deep and strong onshore (ESE/SE) flow (20-35kts) off the deck. Surface high pressure is off of the mid Atlc coast will continue to slowly pull seaward overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The pressure gradient at the surface continues to remain tight as winds veer a bit more to the SE through the period. A breezy afternoon with surface wind speeds 15-20 mph and higher gusts occurring, especially near the coast (30-35mph gusts at Treasure Coast). Winds will remain elevated across the interior this evening 10-15 mph and will back off only slowly overnight. Winds will also remain amplified/breezy along the Space/Treasure coasts all night (15-20 mph) with higher gusts expected as the pressure gradient remains tight here. The mid-level high pressure over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles continues to strengthen/amplify and will provide for a SWRLY flow aloft across the FL peninsula. Moisture continues to deepen and we will see increasing cloudiness areawide tonight. We may see an uptick in low-topped onshore moving showers late in the day/evening. Generally a less than 20pct chance over much of the interior and 20- 30pct near the coast with highest threat along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts. Mild temperatures again tonight for lows and mainly in the 60s areawide with some L70s possible along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts and barrier islands due to combination of deepening moisture/cloud cover/elevated winds. Fri/Fri Night... The aforementioned high pressure continues to push seaward into the western Atlc as a frontal system advances towards the east U.S. coast and Deep South. Broad, mid-level, high pressure continues to reside across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The pressure gradient remains rather tight thru the day with breezy SE/S winds again areawide, but will slacken aft sunset as the center of the ridge retreats seaward. Deep layer moisture continues to pool across the area ahead of a frontal boundary that will lie quasi-stationary by early evening over the FL Panhandle/north FL. There will be a chance for showers with highest threat along/north of I-4 in the afternoon, though there will be at least a chc/slgt chc for such activity areawide. Lapse rates remain weak and continue to keep thunder mention absent from the grids/zones. Another warm/humid day with temperatures in the U70s to L80s. A few M80s may be possible, south of I-4, should cloud thickness be less here. Overnight lows remain mild and mainly in the M/U60s...near 70F along the immediate Treasure Coast. Sat-Sun... A well developed storm system currently centered over the Upr Midwest will overrun the nrn flank of an H100-H70 anticyclone extending from the Mid Atlc coast to Hudson Bay. This motion will flatten the ridge while shunting it to the south, where its axis will eventually anchor itself over the central/south FL Peninsula. This position will place central FL under the direct influence of the western flank of the ridge with a light but steady southerly flow prevailing thru the H100-H70 lyr, veering to W/SW thru the H70- H30 lyr. Upstream and aloft, a large, broad, and deep lyr trof dominates the WX pattern west of the MS River with a deepening storm center moving into the Upr Midwest. The H30-H20 lvl of this trof will become highly amplified with a strong positive tilt by daybreak Sat as a 100KT jet streak over the Cascade Mtn range digs its way into the Desert SW. The jet stream on the leading edge of the trof will respond by taking on a lifting orientation from the Rio Grand Valley to the Mid Atlc/New England states that will prevail into early next week. The combination of the Atlc ridge and the lifting jet will effectively prevent any cold air/frontal intrusions block out any frontal intrusions into central Florida. Temps well abv avg for early winter...aftn maxes in the L/M80s (+10-15F), mrng mins in the M/U60s (+15-20F). Minimal PoPs thru the weekend...mainly Sat...as the S/SW flow pushes a slug of deep lyr moisture acrs central FL. PWat values increasing into the 1.50"-1.75" range, but in a "top-down" manner that will trap much of the moisture abv the H50 lyr. GFS model shows the H85- H50 lyr struggling to reach 70pct mean RH, with a sig portion of the H85-H70 lyr maintaining dewpoint depressions btwn 5-10C. Weak isentropic lift will prevail Sat thru the low/mid lyrs, but with no frontal bndry overhead, sfc/low lcl triggers will be limited to sea/lake breeze interactions...hard to achieve in a deep and weakening srly flow. By daybreak Sun, much of the moisture will have lifted NE of central FL with little to no dynamic support. The lcl 6KM WRF model remains unimpressed with QPF thru the weekend...largely BLO 0.10". Will continue to undercut GFS MOS PoPs off the 27/12Z...capping them at 20pct Sat, and a "silent" 10pct Sun. Mon-Thu...(prev disc) An amplifying but progressive mid level trough over the central CONUS will push eastward from mid to late week, dislodging the stubborn Bahamas ridge, which will erode and retreat into the Atlantic. A wavy cold front will gradually sag through the SE CONUS and eventually into Florida. Timing differences still remain, however, with the op-GFS showing a FROPA Wednesday evening and overnight, while the ECM brings it through Thursday afternoon and early evening. The overall trend seems just a bit slower, thus the forecast follows the slower ECM fairly closely for now. This portends warmer temps and fairly low rain chances, with a slight chance (at best) for showers on Wednesday and again on Thursday. Temps as follows: L80s/L-M60s for Tuesday, U70s-L80s/U50s-L60s on Wednesday, and 70s/50s to L60s on Thursday. && .AVIATION... Breezy ESE/SE winds areawide this afternoon in upwards of 15-20 kts across much of ECFL with frequent higher gusts expected, gusts greater than 25 kts along the Treasure Coast. Winds remain elevated into this evening interior, 10-15 kts, before backing down slowly overnight and amplified at the Space/Treasure coasts (15-20kts) and gusty. An increase in moisture will spell Considerable Cloudiness to MCloudy skies thru the period. ISOLD -shra/shra possible with brief MVFR conds; mainly southward and along the coast, greatest threat later in the day/evening. While cont'd mainly VFR with CIGs 035- 045AGL forecast by Model Guidance for this evening and overnight, we may see some pockets of MVFR CIGs around late and into Fri morning, as well. Expect more LLWS concerns after sunset over the interior terminals and north of KTIX along the coast as 925 mb winds increase (WS020/140-160/35-40 knots). Coastal terminals southward should remain well mixed with windy/gusty conditions overnight. && .MARINE... Afternoon/Tonight...Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for all of the coastal waters by late afternoon Coastal Waters Forecast issuance for very hazardous small craft boating conditions. Winds are forecast to ramp up by early evening to 20kts/gusty near shore and 25kts/occasional gusts to Gale Force Gulf Stream. Seas will build this evening/overnight to 6-9 ft near shore and offshore 8-10 ft. Fri-Fri Night...Hazardous marine conditions greet the period with gusty SE/SSE winds that will gradually decrease through the day as the pgrad relaxes. Seas of course will be slower to subside. Present SCA goes into mid-evening offshore and through late afternoon near shore. Winds will drop into the 10-15KT range Fri evening areawide. Seas mainly 7-10FT across much of the MAOR to start the day, will subside to 5-6FT near shore and 7-8FT offshore by evening, and 4-6FT late Friday night. Sat-Tue...Boating conditions generally favorable as a high pres ridge anchors itself over the central/south FL Peninsula. The western flank of the ridge will be slowly eroded by a storm system that will pull a weak cold front into the Deep South early next week. Winds a light to gentle S/SE breeze thru the weekend, veering to a gentle to moderate S/SW breeze Mon/Tue as the frontal trof advances into the FL Panhandle and tightens the lcl pgrad. Seas subsiding to 2-4FT nearshore and 3-5FT offshore by late Sat aftn...then 2-3FT nearshore and 3-4Ft offshore by late Sun aftn. Seas briefly rebuilding on Mon to 3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT offshore wind winds begin to pick up, but dropping back about a foot areawide by daybreak Tue as winds take on a slight offshore component. Boaters should note that a long pd easterly swell will be a major contributor to the combined wave heights this weekend. Isold/sct shras thru Sun. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 80 66 77 / 20 40 30 20 MCO 68 81 66 81 / 20 30 30 20 MLB 72 84 68 78 / 30 30 20 20 VRB 73 83 69 79 / 30 30 20 20 LEE 67 82 65 81 / 10 40 30 20 SFB 68 82 66 81 / 20 40 30 20 ORL 67 82 66 81 / 20 40 30 20 FPR 72 82 70 79 / 30 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Short Term/Aviation...Sedlock Long Term/Impact WX...Bragaw  FXUS62 KMLB 281408 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 908 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 .DISCUSSION... ...Warmer With Hazardous Boating and Beach Conditions Again Today... Current-Tonight...915 MHZ Cape wind profilers show deep southerly flow over the area with speeds averaging 25-35kts. After a lull in winds early this morning, they should ramp back up to near breezy with frequent higher gusts by this afternoon, but will slacken aft sunset as the center of the ridge to the north retreats seaward. High pressure continues to push seaward into the western Atlc away from the eastern seaboard as a frontal system advances towards the east U.S. coast and Deep South. Broad, mid-level, high pressure continues to reside across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles, though some weak impulses will traverse the northern peninsula later in the day. Deep layer moisture continues to pool across the area ahead of a frontal boundary that will lie quasi-stationary by early evening over the FL Panhandle/north FL. There will be a chance for showers with highest threat along/north of I-4 in the afternoon, though there will be at least a chc/slgt chc for such activity areawide. Lapse rates remain weak and continue to keep thunder mention absent from the grids/zones. A small evening shower threat will exist across the central and north, before lifting north of the CWA by midnight. Another warm/humid day with temperatures in the U70s to L80s. A few M80s may be possible, south of I-4, should cloud thickness be less here. Overnight lows remain mild and mainly in the M/U60s...near 70F along the immediate Treasure Coast. && .AVIATION...Spotty MVFR CIGs improving through late morning and early afternoon, lifting to VFR BKN035-040 during the day. Mainly isolated MVFR showers near 4SM BKN025 during the afternoon. SE/S winds decreasing this evening, becoming mostly light. Deep moisture also will be present at the surface and boundary layer winds are forecast to drop to 10-15 kts late which is well below than we have seen the previous two nights. Model guidance suggests some late overnight/early Sat morning restrictions to both CIGs/VSBYs; especially over the interior. Question is whether cloud cover will allow for patchy (possibly dense) fog to develop toward daybreak or will we see more in the way of areas of low stratus clouds. Will take a closer look at this with the 18Z TAF issuance. && .MARINE...Today-Tonight...Continued hazardous marine conditions across all marine legs this morning, but the pressure gradient begins to relax through the day with wind speeds diminishing to around 15 kts by late afternoon and 10-15 kts tonight. Seas, however, will be slower to subside. SERLY winds will veer more SSE/S over the next 24 hours. Still forecast 5-7 ft seas near shore and 6-9 ft offshore by early evening, so will see if we either need to extend current near shore advisories past 21Z/4PM for a little longer or employ SCA for seas. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect this morning (as tides increase) through 7 PM as breaking waves of 5 to 6 feet make for rough, choppy conditions in the surf zone. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Sedlock/Smith/Combs  FXUS62 KMLB 311920 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 321 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 .DISCUSSION... ...Unsettled Period Early in the New Week... Current-Tonight...Surface ridging's influence will continue to lessen as it pulls seaward ahead of the approaching cold front moving through north FL early this afternoon. The boundary should reside just north of our coverage warning area early this evening, then slowly move southward through the night into the central peninsula. It will probably align just north of Lake Okeechobee by sunrise Mon morning becoming quasi-stationary. The atmosphere remains somewhat moisture-starved; KXMR 10Z sounding shows a PWAT of only 0.91. This profile also shows very dry air between 820-380mb and a prominent capping inversion near 800 mb. Convection isn't likely through this afternoon, but would not be surprised to see a light shower pop up somewhere along the ECSB, especially southward. SWRLY morning winds have become ESE/SE along the Space/Treasure coasts. Winds are a little stronger northward and if the sea breeze develops across Volusia County it will likely be pinned near the coast. Loss of daylight heating/decreased instability tonight will make for only a small threat for showers in association with the aforementioned boundary to the north. And even then, the threat will remain greatest north of I-4 through sunrise. Periodic impulses traversing north-central FL will aid in any precip threat late tonight. Generally mild overnight with lows primarily ranging from the U50s to L60s. Models continue to show an increase in cloud cover overnight with ceilings lowering by sunrise across much of the area, but MOS guidance (aggressive) may be overdoing it. Considerable cloudiness will develop nearly areawide by daybreak Mon. Following frontal passage through the night, mainly SW winds will veer all the way around to NW/N. Mon...The front may venture a little further into south-central FL, but will become quasi-stationary near Lake Okeechobee. Mid-level impulses embedded in the nearly zonal flow aloft will ride across and north of the boundary through the day helping to promote scattered shower activity, likely showers north of I-4. Cannot rule out an isolated lightning storm, too, mainly north of I-4. N/NNE surface winds will be highest, near 15 mph with some higher gusts, across coastal Volusia and perhaps north Brevard. Cloud cover will encompass the entire CWA through the day. A wide range of max temperatures are expected with L-M60s north of I-4 with L80s possible further south across interior St. Lucie/Martin and eastern Okeechobee counties where cloud thickness will be a bit less. Monday Night-Wednesday...Unsettled pattern continues Monday night into Tuesday as stalled front sits over Central FL and the aforementioned shortwave slides east into the Atlantic waters. PoPs have once again trended downward with the latest model runs, leading to the highest coverage of rain north of the Treasure Coast at 40%, with a slight chance of thunder for areas north of Orlando overnight. By Tuesday, yet another shortwave develops off the northern FL coast, leading to additional lift and moisture across the central to southern peninsula. Again, rain chances take a slight downtrend on Tuesday, but still maintaining higher coverage north of I-4. Storm chances will be higher on Tues, with a Marginal Risk for severe weather in place for the peninsula as the shortwave finally sends the stalled front on its way southward. Fcst soundings still in support of sufficiently cool temps aloft, which could lead to some stronger convective development before Tues afternoon. By the late afternoon/evening hours, the front pushes south, veering post- frontal winds to the north and clearing any precip chances for Wednesday. A blanket of clouds on Tuesday will keep highs ranging from the upper 60s to the north, to low 80s across the Treasure Coast. Similar setup Wednesday, although mid 70s become more widespread with the post frontal airmass moving in. Lows Mon night in the upper 50s to low 60s dip to the low to mid 50s on Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. Thursday-Saturday...(modified) Dry, seasonable wx pattern thru late week before a weakening cold front pushes into the region and brings the next (low) chance for precip. The front may approach central FL by late Fri, but indications are the bulk of its energy will lift north of the area, leaving central FL with little more than the "scraps" of its trailing edge. Gradual warming trend to occur as sfc/low lvl winds veer from N/NE to S/SE by Fri/Sat. High temps climb higher each day, beginning in the low 80s Thursday reaching the mid to upper 80s by Saturday, with lows in the mid 60s following the same trend. && .AVIATION...Continued mainly VFR for much of the night, but models differ on ceilings. It does appear that moistening (top/bottom) of the atmosphere will occur overnight as the front progresses southward and occasional impulses traverse the north-central peninsula. Any shower threat appears greatest north of I-4 overnight. However, increased shower and isolated storm threat Mon- Tue of next week, some of which on Tue could be strong. && .MARINE...Afternoon-Tonight...Surface ridge axis continues to pull seaward as a cold front over north FL advances southward; just north of the local northern waters by early evening. This boundary will continue southward into the central and potentially southern coastal waters by daybreak Mon morning. Winds returning to SWRLY this evening will veer to northerly behind the front. Isolated showers over the Gulf Stream this afternoon. Shower activity possibly becoming scattered in nature Cape northward overnight. Winds generally AOB 15 kts, but northerly winds behind the front may increase to 15-17 kts offshore/north of the Volusia-Brevard County line. Seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft Gulf Stream. Mon...Gradually deteriorating marine conditions from north to south behind a recent cold front as winds balance between N-NE increasing to 15-20 kts near shore north of Sebastian Inlet and 20 plus knots offshore north of the same point. Southward, winds appear to remain AOB 15 kts during the day, with varying direction depending on exact placement of the boundary. Seas will respond by building to 6-8 ft north of the Cape through the end of the day (offshore) and 5-6 ft near shore north of the Cape. Elsewhere seas may build to 3-5 ft. Tuesday-Wednesday...Another shortwave develops off the N FL coast Tues morning, sending a brief westerly wind surge across the offshore waters, increasing to 15-20 kts by midday. Swell will pull southward as well, with seas increasing 5-6 feet nearshore and up to 8 ft in the northern Gulf Stream as the trough slides eastward. Seas will gradually subside through Wednesday morning, becoming 4-5 ft nearshore and up to 6-7 ft offshore. Late Week...Slightly improving seas through the latter half of the week as high pressure slides in over the Deep South. Onshore winds veer southeasterly near 10 knots, with seas of 4-5 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 66 61 69 / 20 70 50 50 MCO 62 74 61 77 / 10 40 30 50 MLB 63 75 64 75 / 10 30 30 40 VRB 63 79 64 77 / 10 30 30 40 LEE 59 67 59 75 / 20 60 40 50 SFB 61 70 61 76 / 20 50 40 50 ORL 63 71 61 76 / 10 50 40 50 FPR 62 80 64 78 / 10 30 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sedlock LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....Smith AVIATION...Sedlock