FXUS62 KMHX 011119 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 719 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BUILD WEST OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MID WEEK AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... AS OF 710 AM MON...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS SLOWLY FILLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SURF CITY NNW TO NEAR GOLDSBORO SLOWLY MOVING NE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST DUAL POL RAIN RATES INDICATE 0.75-1 INCHES AN HOUR SO WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH SPS/FLS AS NEEDED. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST AND CENTRAL OBX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THE COASTAL WATERS. 11Z SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WITH MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG AND A LACK OF CIN/CAP DUE TO A VERY MOIST COLUMN. LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATERS CONTINUE 2.10-2.25 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NC. EXPECT THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN BAHAMAS SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CWA TODAY. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE TODAY WITH BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING STRONG OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. HARD TO PIN DOWN SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTMAX LOCATION AT THIS TIME...BUT LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS APPROACH INDICATES GOOD MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG THE COAST AROUND 18Z WITH A SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FETCH BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH COULD BECOME NUMEROUS AS TIMES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN NC THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WITH SOILS ALREADY SENSITIVE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MATERIALIZE WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF DROPPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND OBX. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 235 AM MON...SOUTHERLY MOIST FETCH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL EARLY TONIGHT THEN TRANSITION INLAND LESSENING THE RAIN THREAT ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS BUT WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST/OBX. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED STARTING DURING MID WEEK PER THE LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS. THE AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS INLAND TAPERING TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES AREA-WIDE. BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD TOWARD THE WEST WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SHUNT THE DEEP AXIS OF MOISTURE FURTHER AND FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER POPS WITH 30 PERCENT COAST TO 50 PERCENT WELL INLAND...CLOSER TO THE 850 MB THETA-E AXIS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING HIGH. AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF FURTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE COAST BY THE FOURTH OF JULY...RAIN CHANCES DROP EVEN FURTHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S WITH LOWER 90S INLAND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES BY THURSDAY. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW SEA BREEZE LATE-DAY THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL PER MOS GUIDANCE AND LATEST NAEFS ANOMALIES PROGS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 710 AM MON...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT MVFR AND LOW VFR LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO TODAY AS DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH INTO EASTERN NC. WIDESPREAD MVFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SSW/S WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 15 KT. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INHIBITING DENSE FOG FORMATION. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 AM MONDAY...WITH AXIS OF HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE A FEW LATE DAY SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH NIGHTTIME DECOUPLING...THERE WILL BE AN EVER-PRESENT THREAT OF LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... AS OF 655 AM...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 15-20 KT AND 4-6 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE TROPICS. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WITH SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO TUES MAINLY FOR ELEVATED SEAS ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT AT TIMES. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 250 AM MONDAY...LATEST VERSION OF WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS DROPPING TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING ON TUESDAY. S/SW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD DROP BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY WEEK'S END AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081- 090>095-098-103-104. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154- 156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DAG NEAR TERM...DAG SHORT TERM...DAG LONG TERM...CTC AVIATION...CTC/DAG MARINE...CTC/DAG  FXUS62 KMHX 082349 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 749 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MID WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 735 PM MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN DUE TO TRAINING CELLS HAVE IMPACTED THE NORTHERN OBX OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND EXPECT THE FLS TO CONTINUE FOR THIS REGION UNTIL 8PM...BUT MAY NEED TO REISSUE BASED ON UPSTREAM CONVECTION. MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -6 C IN THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAINS. 22Z LAPS SOUNDING INDICATED PWATS AROUND 1.65 INCHES...WITH LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8-1.9 INCHES...ROUGHLY 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. VORTMAX AND SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ROTATE NE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACTIVITY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR MAY SLIDE EAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING BUT SPATIAL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS...WITH THE LATEST HRRR/NAM12. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY DIMINISHES. SW FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWS 70S INLAND AND MID 70S COASTAL AREA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...WEAK DISTURBANCES AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH DAY HEATING...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND SEA BREEZE...THIS WILL AID ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE INLAND SECTIONS DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE MID 80S COASTAL AREA TO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S INLAND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE REVERTING BACK TO A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE/AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROUGH BEGINNING THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF INTO A CUT OFF LOW AND SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE VERY WET PATTERN THAT OCCURRED FROM LATE JUNE INTO EARLY JULY (SHIFTED AROUND 10 DEGREES EAST). WITH SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAM FLOWS ABOVE AVERAGE...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND IF HEAVY RAINS MATERIALIZE. INITIALLY A SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERLIES BETWEEN STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST INTO EASTERN NC WITH A RESIDUAL PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS WOULD EXPECT A TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LESSER THREAT EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS AND NEARBY COAST LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES AMPLIFIED AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2" AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WPC QPF DAYS 5-7 INDICATES THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NC. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT IF ANY EFFECT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL WILL HAVE ON EASTERN NC BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD BE CIRCULATED ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND 90 THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLIGHT COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 80S IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN AT OR ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 740 PM MONDAY...PREDOMINANT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AS CONVECT REMAINS WEST AND NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. GUIDANCE STILL HITTING LOW STRATUS/LIGHT FOG FOR ALL TAF SITES BUT EXPECT THAT IT IS OVERDONE AS NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. LIGHT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY SITES THAT RECEIVE SHOWERS/TSTORMS...MAINLY PGV/ISO...MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOW-VFR FOR OAJ/EWN DUE TO A WEAKER INVERSION...AND MVFR FOR PGV/ISO WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER INVERSION BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TUES MORNING WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY...ASIDE FROM WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS BUT A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL MIXING WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. A CHANGE IN THE SURFACE/UPPER PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A GREATER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THUS A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFFSHORE WITH A TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH TUESDAY. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10-20 KTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS 2-4 FT OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT THROUGH TOMORROW. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 PM MONDAY...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES PERSISTING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THURSDAY MAINTAINING THE SW FLOW. EXPECT A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THE SW FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME ENHANCED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC AND BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY LEADING TO A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SPEEDS WILL REACH 20-25 KT ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 10 TO 15 KT ON LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. FORECAST SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS BUILDING SEAS TO 4-7 FT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE 3 TO 5 FT LATE FRIDAY AND 2 TO 4 FT SATURDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BM NEAR TERM...DAG/BM SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...JME AVIATION...JME/DAG MARINE...JME/SK/DAG  FXUS62 KMHX 110427 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1227 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA SOUNDS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN BACK SOUTH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1225 AM FRIDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING THE REGION IN A MOIST/DAMP CONDITIONS WITH A THICK LOW OVERCAST. THE CLOUD DEPTH WAS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AREA WIDE BUT NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE THICK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING MUCH OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE GRAY AND OCCASIONALLY DAMP WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ABOUT THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST TO THE NORTH. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND PATCHY AND WITH LIMITED/NIL SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT BEST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THU...UPPER AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NEAR VA/NC BORDER FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THEN MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE -RA/DZ FRI NIGHT INTO MON AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. HIGHEST POP CHANCES STILL LOOK LIKE THE NORTHERN CWA AND OUTER BANKS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES...HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 50S/MID 60S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN INTO TUE AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND OUTER BANKS. MODELS STILL NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE W MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY FORECAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. AT THIS TIME EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEG MID TO LATE WEEK NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/... AS OF 1225 AM FRIDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS WILL BE FORECASTING IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN WILL INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE FRIDAY AS CLOUD BASES RISE. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THU...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOIST NE FLOW AND UPPER/SFC LOW NEAR THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IFR STRATUS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE THIS WEEKEND...THOUGH PERIODS OF SUB- VFR WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUN THROUGH TUE WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND NORTHERLY FLOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1225 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH FRIDAY PRODUCING MAINLY A WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5-7FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 2-5 ACROSS THE SOUTH/CENTRAL WATERS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THU...EXPECT A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNE BOATING CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER/SFC LOW LINGER OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN N/NW FLOW GENERALLY AOB 15KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 5FT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SUN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW TO THE EAST...WITH WINDS N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT...LIKELY PEAKING SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS SUN AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUN EVENING. N/NE WINDS 15-25KT WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150- 152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC/RF/JME NEAR TERM...CTC/BTC/JME/LEP SHORT TERM...BTC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...CTC/JME/CQD/BM MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/CQD/LEP  FXUS62 KMHX 110702 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 302 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH JUST OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND WEAKEN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY. NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. NO DRY AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO THE GREY OVERCAST WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING SHOULD EVOLVE INTO PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING EASTERN NC LOCKED IN DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DECK. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRI...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER SATURDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED TO THE EAST AS A BROAD UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT/... AS OF 1225 AM FRIDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS WILL BE FORECASTING IFR CEILINGS/MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN WILL INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE FRIDAY AS CLOUD BASES RISE. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED IN OUR STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRI...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESULTING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY...NORTH 10-20 KNOTS SUNDAY AND NORTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS TO 6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORT OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT TODAY AND CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND 2-4 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH/CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... S OF 3 AM FRI...USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE ONLY GOOD BOATING DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A TIGHT NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150- 152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/HSA MARINE...JME/HSA  FXUS62 KMHX 111023 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 623 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST CAROLINA WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH JUST OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND WEAKEN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY. NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COAST. GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. NO DRY AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO THE LOW GREY OVERCAST WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING SHOULD EVOLVE INTO PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN LATER TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 245 AM FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT KEEPING EASTERN NC LOCKED IN DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD DECK. EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRI...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS. SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER SATURDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY GETTING KICKED TO THE EAST AS A BROAD UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY TONIGHT/... AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD VERY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR LIGHT DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PERHAPS CEILINGS RISING TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN INTO IFR RANGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRI...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESULTING SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY...NORTH 10-20 KNOTS SUNDAY AND NORTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS MONDAY AND 10-15 KNOTS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...WILL LET THE ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS EXPIRE AS FORECAST AT 7 AM AS SEAS HAVE DROPPED TO 5 FT AT BUOY 41025 FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER NORTH WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM AS SEAS REMAIN 5-6 FT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KT TODAY AND CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TO 10 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE WATERS, 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS, AND 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH/CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT ALL WATERS BY TONIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... S OF 3 AM FRI...USED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS FOR THIS FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE NC/VA BORDER SATURDAY WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THE ONLY GOOD BOATING DAY WILL BE SATURDAY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET. AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A TIGHT NORTHEAST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. SMALL CRAFT WINDS/SEAS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150- 152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/HSA MARINE...JME/HSA  FXUS62 KMHX 120454 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1254 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF VIRGINIA BEACH TONIGHT THEN DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND WEAKEN OFF THE FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY. NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE LOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...EASTERN NC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW FROM THE THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS WHICH CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS IS KEEPING THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH A LOW OVERCAST AND WITH A CLOUD DEPTH SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON SATURDAY AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. SOME ADDITIONAL BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTER GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT IN GENERAL THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL SHOW MAX TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 71 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE TO ALLOW FOR SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE LATE AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS A BIT AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 240 PM FRI...UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ALONG THE SE COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE/NO CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO MON...WITH LOW LEVELS FINALLY BEGINNING TO DRY OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS SUN AND MON WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES...CLOUD COVER AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN INTO TUE WITH LOW OFFSHORE AND FRONT WELL TO THE WEST...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND OUTER BANKS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY REMAINING TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING/... AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CIRCULATING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 07Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS CLOUD BASES RISE. EXPECTING A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA KEEPING EASTERN NC IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 240 PM FRI...WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOIST NE FLOW AND UPPER/SFC LOW SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IFR STRATUS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. PATTERN WILL REMAIN SIMILAR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH IFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY N/NE WINDS EXPECTED SUN AND MON AFTERNOONS. LOW LEVELS FINALLY BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT TUE AND WED...WITH MORE PRED VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW OFF VIRGINIA BEACH TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ON SATURDAY. W/NW WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 5 FEET NORTH OF LOOKOUT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 240 PM FRI...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE SUN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW TO THE EAST AND FRONT TO THE WEST...WITH WINDS N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9FT...LIKELY PEAKING SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS EARLY SUN...THEN SPREADING TO THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUN EVENING. N/NE WINDS 15-25KT WITH ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TUE NIGHT INTO WED...WITH NE WINDS 10-15KT AND SEAS 2-5FT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CTC/BTC/JME NEAR TERM...CTC/BTC/JME SHORT TERM...CTC LONG TERM...CQD AVIATION...JME/CQD MARINE...CTC/BTC/JME/CQD  FXUS62 KMHX 120701 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 301 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND CONTINUE SOUTH TO BE OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY. NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...EASTERN NC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND WHICH CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE REFLECTION, A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH, WILL DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE NC COAST TODAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE KEEPING THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH A LOW OVERCAST AND WITH A CLOUD DEPTH SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE MORNING AND WHILE SKIES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY, SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. WITH DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 60S BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SAT...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST...SLOWLY BECOMING AN INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN GETTING EJECTED TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWEST CHANCES INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN TO HIGHEST EAST AND OUTER BANKS. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK IN NORTHEAST FLOW THEN WARMING UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES WEST AHEAD OF LATE WEEK FRONT. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1250 AM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CIRCULATING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 07Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. THE IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS CLOUD BASES RISE. EXPECTING A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA KEEPING EASTERN NC IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SAT...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ISOLATED TUESDAY AND DRY WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY...10-15 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OFF OF VIRGINIA BEACH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT NORTH OR EVEN VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK OVER THE NC WATERS. TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH OF OUR WATERS LATE, THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET NORTH OF LOOKOUT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SAT...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WITH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS FOR THE WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE AGAIN WITH THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS ON BOTH SOUNDS SO NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FORECAST. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC DISSIPATES MIDWEEK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/HSA MARINE...JME/HSA  FXUS62 KMHX 121324 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 924 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH JUST OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY AND CONTINUE SOUTH TO BE OFF OF THE FLORIDA COAST SUNDAY. NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE IN A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE WEAKENING OFFSHORE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS. LOWERED TEMPS MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO IN PLACES...BUT GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. EASTERN NC CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE CAROLINAS AND WHICH CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE REFLECTION, A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EAST OF VIRGINIA BEACH, WILL DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE NC COAST TODAY. THESE SYSTEMS ARE KEEPING THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH A LOW OVERCAST AND WITH A CLOUD DEPTH SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/PATCHY DRIZZLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WHICH ARE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. CLOUD BASES ARE FORECAST TO RISE BY LATE MORNING AND WHILE SKIES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY, SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE 70 TO 74 RANGE. && .SHORT TERM / SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. WITH DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION, THERE WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17. LOW WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 60S BEACHES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SAT...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEAST...SLOWLY BECOMING AN INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN GETTING EJECTED TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWEST CHANCES INLAND OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN TO HIGHEST EAST AND OUTER BANKS. TEMPS WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK IN NORTHEAST FLOW THEN WARMING UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES WEST AHEAD OF LATE WEEK FRONT. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 610 AM SATURDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NC THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CIRCULATING DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY CONTINUING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS CLOUD BASES RISE. EXPECTING A RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA KEEPING EASTERN NC IN DEEP MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SAT...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ISOLATED TUESDAY AND DRY WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY...10-15 KNOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 920 AM SATURDAY...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND GRIDS WITH NO TANGIBLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OFF OF VIRGINIA BEACH THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OFF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DRIFT SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS WILL TEND TO BECOME LIGHT NORTH OR EVEN VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK OVER THE NC WATERS. TONIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH OF OUR WATERS LATE, THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET NORTH OF LOOKOUT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SAT...NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM WITH NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS FOR THE WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE AGAIN WITH THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS ON BOTH SOUNDS SO NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FORECAST. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC DISSIPATES MIDWEEK. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME NEAR TERM...RSB/JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...HSA AVIATION...JME/HSA MARINE...RSB/JME/HSA