FXUS63 KLMK 250707 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 307 AM EDT Mon May 25 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon May 25 2015 An upper level trof above the Ozarks and vorticity stretched out along the lower Mississippi Valley have been producing showers and thunderstorms to our west throughout the overnight hours. These features will head northeast today and will spread showers and embedded thunderstorms through southern Indiana and central Kentucky. While severe weather is not expected, high precipitable water values and deep warm cloud depths suggest locally heavy downpours will be possible. The best chances for rain still appear to be during the first half of the day west of I-65 and this afternoon to the east. Despite a warm start to the day, clouds and rain will prevent temperatures from rising much. Will continue with going forecast of highs around 80. Convection should taper off this evening, and then regenerate after midnight as the next wave, positioned near El Paso TX this morning, starts to enter the region from the west. It will be another warm, muggy night with lows 65 to 70. On Tuesday that upper wave will cross the region over the course of the day, resulting in shower and thunderstorm activity. Though wind fields will be a little stronger on Tuesday, instability does not look very impressive -- especially if we have widespread convection in the morning. SWEAT Index remains AOB 300 all day. Wet bulb zero is fairly high, there's not much dry air aloft, and mid-level lapse rates remain fairly weak. The occurrence of strong/severe storms will be highly dependent on just how much surface destabilization we can realize. If we see less shower/storm activity in the morning than currently expected, and a few more holes in the clouds to allow some insolation, then the potential is there for some stronger storms. Confidence, at this point, is somewhat lower than usual for Tuesday. With or without strong/severe storms Tuesday, locally heavy downpours will certainly be a possibility. Temperatures Tuesday should be similar to Monday (depending greatly on how much rain and/or sun we receive), and we'll go with max temps around 80 once again. .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Issued at 250 AM EDT Mon May 25 2015 The main focus in the long term is precipitation chances each day as a moist and seasonably warm airmass holds over the lower Ohio Valley. The synoptic pattern Tuesday night is expected to feature a weak shortwave trough passing through the lower Great Lakes. In addition, the right entrance region of a 300 mb jet will be favorably positioned over the region, providing weak but sufficient forcing for ascent. Some elevated instability is noted in the soundings, so will continue to carry 30 to 50 percent POPs during the overnight. Another mild night with lows 65 to 70. Though the main upper level forcing moves off to the north/east Wednesday, the moist and warm airmass will result in 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE by afternoon in a mostly uncapped environment. This supports diurnally driven thunderstorms for the afternoon to early evening hours. Shear environment is very weak, so not anticipating any strong organized convection. Highs 78-82. 25.00z deterministic and ensemble guidance show a weak shortwave trough moving through southern Indiana Thursday, which may be enough of a focus for shower/storm enhancement during the afternoon. Moisture/instability not as favorable though, so kept POPs mainly in the 30 to 40 percent range. Thursday night into Saturday, forecast models are agreeing that the southeast US upper ridge and surface high begin to build back over the region. This could result in a drier period and for now carried 20-30 percent chance of afternoon showers/storms. 850mb temps nudge up a degree or two these days, so highs 85-88 are expected with overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s to around 70. Saturday night into early next week, models begin to show the central Plains trough advance eastward again while a surface front slowly approaches from the northwest. There is uncertainty in how fast the southeast US ridge breaks down, allowing this system to approach the local area. A time trend analysis suggests the ridge may hold longer into the weekend. As a result, a model consensus of 30 to 40 percent POPs seem reasonable at this time but could end up being lowered later if trends in more/stronger ridging continue. Plan on near normal temperatures of highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Updated at 114 AM EDT Mon May 25 2015 The pre-dawn hours will be breezy with a tight surface gradient between high pressure off the East Coast and low pressure over the Midwest, and a low level jet streaming from the lower Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes. As a result of the stronger winds just off the surface, as predicted by the models and shown on recent AMDAR sounding out of SDF, will continue with borderline LLWS at the western TAF sites (nearer the LLJ). An upper wave currently over the lower Mississippi Valley will head northeast today and will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms to the region. Southerly winds will become gusty, with 3-sec speeds of 20-25 knots possible. Convection will taper off by late afternoon at SDF/BWG and early evening at LEX. Redevelopment will then be possible at SDF after midnight tonight as another wave comes in from the southwest. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........13  FXUS63 KLMK 280516 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015 Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower or T-storm. Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015 Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had advertised convection developing along the cold front but between the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry, but with the juicy air mass still in place it's hard to rule out a stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads. .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)... Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015 Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point, after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing a watch at this time. DCAPE's are not as impressive over the eastern part of the area. The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64 corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now. Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of moisture. For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger. Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an isolated wind/hail threat isn't out of the question. Have gone with 40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015 Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a generally unsettled period with off and on showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south- central Indiana. As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day within greater low-level instability. At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8 inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015 The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms through the region later today. Currently a sfc front was approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north from TN. Our region remains in between these features attm, but each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period. With plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly lower. Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this morning. Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late afternoon. It's a little difficult to pinpoint an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day. Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning. Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........RAS Short Term.....RJS Long Term......EER Aviation.......AMS  FXUS63 KLMK 130718 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)... Updated at 309 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 The synoptic pattern early this morning features a sprawling blocking ridge across much of the southeastern CONUS, with broad and moist southwesterly flow on the backside of this ridge across much of the central Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This regime will keep very warm and humid air in place, with chances for mainly diurnally driven thunderstorms through the short term period. Today looks to largely be a repeat of Friday, with another chance of diurnal thunderstorms. The main forecast challenge is just how widespread this convection will be, as the hi-res guidance seems a bit split in their solutions. Latest water vapor imagery depicts a good surge of moisture pushing north across portions of northern AL and TN at this hour, which could be associated with a weak PV anomaly sliding north through the weak southwesterly flow. This will make it into central KY by this afternoon. The 13/00Z NAM is aggressive in developing convection with this feature across southern KY as early as 15Z, but many of the other hi-res CAMs do not show this. Can't completely rule out this scenario, but think the bulk of convection will hold off until 18Z and after. The best focus should be across central KY into southern IN (the northwestern 2/3rds of the LMK CWA) where broad isentropic ascent will be focused, but certainly can't rule out a storm anywhere today. Without any real obvious triggers for storms beside the very subtle wave and associated weak moisture advection, coverage should be in the range of 20-40%. Deep-layer shear values will be similar to Friday, so storms will be rather "pulsy" but the amount of instability could lead to a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds around 40mph and torrential rainfall. Highs will be tricky given the expected convection, but areas that don't receive a storm should top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Convection should diurnally decrease in coverage tonight with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows will be very similar to this morning, only dropping into the low to mid 70s. The ridge will be most pronounced over the region on Sunday, especially across the Lake Cumberland region. Therefore, we will likely see a gradient in precipitation chances from northwest to southeast, with southern IN standing the highest chance to see a few storms as they will be more on the periphery of the ridge. However, overall think coverage will be lower across KY on Sunday than what is expected today. Highs on Sunday will climb into the upper 80s and 90s across much of KY, with middle 80s expected across southern IN where rain chances are higher. .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat June 13 2015 During the long term period a summertime subtropical upper ridge will become established, centered roughly between 20N-30N from the central pacific to North Africa, with a slight weakness over the U.S. southern Great Plains. The upper jet will cross North America from the Pacific Northwest to New England. The LMK CWA will sit between these features, far enough north of the ridge to allow for showers and thunderstorms, far enough south of the upper jet to reduce chances of widespread organized severe weather outbreaks. Of course, that's not to say that scattered instances of severe weather, most likely in the form of gusty winds, won't happen with some of the thunderstorms that do develop under the right circumstances. For much of the long term a low level jet will flow up the lower Mississippi Valley and then curve northeast into the Ohio Valley, reaching its strongest speeds Wednesday night. This will help to funnel Gulf moisture northward. Precipitable water numbers will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range through the period, possibly climbing above two inches Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Also, we'll have deep warm cloud depths around 4km throughout the period. As occasional upper waves interact with this rich moisture, showers and thunderstorms can be expected. At the surface a weak cold front will drop in from the northwest on Tuesday then get hung up in the region as it runs into that southern ridge. The presence of this boundary further increases confidence of showers and storms this coming week. Tuesday night through Thursday have the best chances for the most widespread heaviest rain. Over the course of the entire long term, in general southern Indiana and northern Kentucky will stand the best shot at the most frequent thunderstorm activity, with slightly lesser chances in southern Kentucky. Right now for the period we have QPF amounts of 1"-2" in most of central Kentucky and 2"-3" in southern Indiana and far north central Kentucky. Temperatures will be typical for this time of year with highs in the 80s to around 90 and muggy lows from the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Updated at 100 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2015 Generally VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Enough of a pressure gradient should remain fixed over the Ohio Valley to keep winds around 5-10 knots tonight at all terminals, which should help to limit any fog formation. Otherwise, the remainder of the overnight hours will feature dry conditions and mainly clear skies. During the day today, diurnal convection will once again develop in the heat of the afternoon. It's really tough to pin down and obvious forcing mechanisms, so timing anything into the terminals will be difficult. To keep forecast consistency, will keep VCTS mention in at all sites, but this could end up being a bit overdone as coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered. Will re-evaluate afternoon thunderstorm chances at the 12Z issuance. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........KJD Long Term.........13 Aviation..........KJD  FXUS63 KLMK 141915 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)... Updated at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2015 In the near term, partly to mostly cloudy skies were noted across the region this afternoon. NWS and KY Mesonet observations reveal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Some scattered thunderstorms have been developing across the region. The best concentration of storms was from NW KY into southwestern/southern Indiana...though some storms also were firing across the southern Bluegrass. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect the scattered storms to continue producing locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will likely hit their maximums within the next hour with upper 80s to near 90. Temperatures are then forecast to fall into the middle 80s this evening with the scattered storms dying off after sunset. For tonight, expect partly cloudy skies across the region. It will be another warm and muggy night with lows only cooling into the upper 60s to the lower 70s. The downtown heat islands could very well stay in the middle 70s once again. The latest guidance suggests some isolated storms may develop late tonight across our northwestern third, thus will keep isolated-scattered storms up in the region. For Monday/Monday night, generally expect another repeat performance of the weather with diurnally driven convection developing once again by late morning and into the early afternoon hours. Overall coverage may be slightly higher than today, with the best chances again across southern Indiana and portions of KY near the Ohio River. Isolated convection will still be possible over much of central KY, with the least amount of convection down across the southeast. Precipitable water values of over 2 inches, combined with large warm cloud depths will allow storms to be heavy rain producers along with producing some gusty winds at times. A little more cloud cover will keep temperatures down slightly with mainly mid-upper 80s expected for highs. Showers and storms will likely continue into the evening hours and diminish after sunset with the loss of heating. Temperatures will remain mild again with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2015 Persistent mid-level ridge over the southeastern U.S. and anticyclonically-curved moisture stream around the west and north side of the ridge will persist into mid week. This will keep the main axis of convection from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley eastward across the Ohio Valley. Within this pattern, overall weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday should be similar to this weekend and on Monday. The main difference is that the 12 UTC models suggest a subtle flattening of the ridge as a shortwave trough passes across the southern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. This could at least temporarily suppress the moisture axis into southern IN and perhaps north- central KY to the northern Bluegrass. Within this axis, convective cells should become more numerous on Tuesday roughly along and north of Interstate 64, forced by any convective outflow boundaries or subtle convergence zones south of the main surface front to our north. Greatest coverage should still be in the afternoon and evening. Over south-central KY, the pattern suggests very warm to hot and humid conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening cells. Given more sunshine and less storms in this area, believe high temps will reach around 90 or the lower 90s these 2 afternoons, higher than GFS MOS. If air temps top out this high, then afternoon heat indices across south-central KY could reach the upper 90s. The next concern will be the eventual track of the remnants of the tropical system progged to move into southeast Texas about Tuesday and then move into the Ohio Valley later this week. The 12 UTC models are all over the place with placement and timing as it approaches our area, with 2 fast solutions (NAM and GEM) and 2 slow solutions (GFS and ECMWF). See NHC's website for official info on this system. Although the slower solutions are favored at this time, it is very difficult to pin down when and where more widespread precip may occur with it. A couple factors to consider as the system lifts north and eventually northeast. First, the main moisture axis that is progged to set up over southern IN Tuesday could lift back northward slightly mid week in advance of the system, which could actually decrease diurnal storm coverage briefly, especially south-central KY. Second, no matter the timing or where the remnant surface low eventually tracks, it will be progressive across the Ohio Valley as it rounds the southeast ridge. Therefore, while an area or band of precip should increase sometime later this week, it should not be a prolonged heavy rain event, but could provide some needed rainfall to at least parts of our area. For now, will go with the highest precip chances on Thursday, but this may need to be adjusted, with continuing chances Friday given the slowest ECMWF solution. After the system passes sometime late this week, precip chances should diminish temporarily. However, renewed storm activity could occur sometime over the weekend and/or early next week with more unstable moist inflow into the region ahead of shortwaves aloft. High temps will be held down some late this week with more clouds and precip, then rebound by next weekend again. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 119 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2015 Scattered thunderstorm development has begun across the region as we've hit our convective temperatures. Best convective coverage looks to be across southern Indiana and portions of north-central Kentucky including the KSDF and KLEX terminals. For this reason, we plan on carrying VCTS at KSDF/KLEX this afternoon and into the evening hours. It appears that KBWG will be closer to the mid-level ridge axis which would result in a drier forecast. Surface winds this afternoon will remain out of the southwest at 9 to 11 knots with a few gusts up to 20kts. We expect the diurnally driven convection to end after sunset with VFR conditions continuing into the overnight period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........MJ Long Term.........TWF Aviation..........MJ  FXUS63 KLMK 161906 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 306 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)... Updated at 306 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2015 The overall pattern remains the same through the short term with a persistent SE CONUS ridge and the Ohio River Valley stuck on the periphery where mid level flow is slightly stronger. The combination of instability and individual disturbances moving through the flow aloft will combine for periods of scattered to numerous showers/storms mainly across southern IN and north central KY. This Evening and Tonight... Several clusters of convection have developed this afternoon in a moderately unstable and very moist environment. Main focus appears to be across central and southern KY where numerous showers and storms appear to have developed on either differential heating or a weak remnant outflow boundary. Another cluster is occurring over southern IN ahead of a weak vort max embedded in the zonal flow around the periphery of an upper ridge, with one persistently deviant cell. Overall, severe threat would be confined to an isolated instance or two given the relative lack of deep shear, however a few stronger storms with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected. Cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with any storm. Coverage of storms should diminish across much of the area later this evening with the loss of heating. Will diminish Pops as we head into the evening hours, except across our far NW where trajectories around the upper ridge will carry deeper moisture. A few showers/storms will be possible through the overnight given an increase in low level jetting around 30 knots. Expecting another mild overnight with lows mostly in the low and mid 70s. Wednesday - Wednesday Night... As we move toward dawn on Wednesday, there is some signal of a vort max rounding the upper ridge and sliding through, with scattered convection moving across our NW half of the CWA. Latest runs of the NAM haven't done too bad and have support from latest higher res models so will lean toward this scenario. This would bring best chances of convection through from around dawn through midday, followed by a relative afternoon lull in the subsident/worked over airmass. At this point, feel the Slight Risk of severe weather is conditional upon the morning convection. Overall, not that impressed only given marginal deep layer shear combined with modest instability. Any storms that might develop will have a gusty wind and heavy rainfall threat. In fact, heavy rainfall may be the bigger concern in localized areas as precipitable water values jump up around 2 inches through the column. Highs will be generally dependent upon convection but in general look for low 80s north to low 90s south. By Wednesday night, upper ridge should amplify a bit and shift the best focus to our north, mainly across our southern IN counties. Will keep chance pops in this area with a mostly dry forecast across central KY. Another mild night is in store with lows in the low and mid 70s. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2015 ...Remnants of Tropical Storm Bill should affect central KY and south-central IN... The extended forecast centers around the timing and track of the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill as it is forecast to move northeast into the mid Mississippi Valley and then east across the Ohio Valley. Models in reasonable agreement although certainly there are some differences. For example, the GFS and ECMWF maintain the mid-level identity of the system (which is preferred), while the NAM and GEM are more elongated as it tracks northeast. At the beginning of the period (Thursday), the remnants of Bill should be heading across the southern Plains. A moisture axis will extend northeast from this system into the Ohio Valley. Shortwave ridging should occur just north and east of the system, which should keep this moisture stream near and north of the Ohio River. As a result, best rain chances appear to be over southern IN, but with differential heating boundaries and instability probable to the south, isolated to scattered afternoon pulse type convective cells are again expected Thursday afternoon and evening over central KY. These cells should weaken out Thursday night, although areas of rain and convection could continue in the moisture axis over southern IN. Going with the GFS and ECMWF, Friday will again see scattered diurnal convection over central KY with scattered to numerous storms in southern IN and possibly parts of west-central KY. For Friday night and Saturday, Bill's mid-level circulation is forecast to move across the OH Valley, with precipitable water values roughly around 2.25 inches. At the same time, the low-level jet is progged to increase to around 40 kts. An area of moderate to heavy rain should accompany the core of the system, although during the day Saturday, differential heating away from the core could fire strong convection with torrential rain given deep warm cloud depths and very efficient rainfall production, and gusty winds given enhanced low-level shear. Outside of storms, with a near saturated air column, low-level lapse rates may not be steep enough to effectively mix down the higher environmental winds aloft, although some gusty surface winds are possible. After this system passes, rainfall chances will diminish or end temporarily Saturday night or Sunday, depending on system timing. However, the pattern changes quickly to a west to northwest flow aloft with potentially very unstable air developing along the southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow over the OH Valley into the mid MS Valley and upper Midwest. This pattern favors development of one or more mesoscale convective system (MCSs) somewhere to our north and west, which could potentially track into southern IN and/or central KY or somewhere across the OH Valley, depending on mesoscale detail. For now, will include a chance of convection early next week based on these factors, but unable to pin down specifics at this time. Temperatures late this week will be greatly modulated by the amount of clouds vs. sunshine, and rainfall. South-central KY should see highs at or above 90 on Thursday with partial sunshine, with mid 80s over southern IN. Saturday should be cooler with deeper clouds from the remnants of Bill, but humid (unless there is any sunshine ahead of Bill). It will then warm back up to summer levels Sunday and early next week. Looking ahead to mid next week, a strong ridge over the southern half of the country may build eastward across the OH Valley. This could set us up for some real heat at that time. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 117 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2015 Weak synoptic front is currently positioned north of the TAF sites across central IN westward to St. Louis. Expect scattered to numerous showers and some t-storm coverage ahead of this feature through the afternoon and early evening. Given a mid level subsidence inversion evident on forecast soundings, think convection will struggle. So, reluctant to even include VCTS at SDF/LEX. Will start with VCSH and amend as necessary. Do expect a secondary area of enhanced coverage across south central KY where VCTS seems more reasonable so will include at BWG. Otherwise, convection wanes this evening with the loss of heating. Should be a pretty quiet overnight, with perhaps another convective complex toward dawn. Think it will mainly be north so will only mention VCSH at SDF. VFR should prevail outside of any T-storm with Cu around 4-5 K feet and plenty of mid and upper clouds. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........BJS Long Term.........TWF Aviation..........BJS  FXUS63 KLMK 170728 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 328 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)... Updated at 324 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2015 A complex synoptic set-up and struggling model solutions lead to a lower than average confidence forecast for this short term. The main takeaway, though, is the possibility of locally very heavy rain with periods of showers and thunderstorms today, especially over north central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Of secondary concern will be the possibility of strong wind gusts with the more robust cells, especially this afternoon from southern Indiana into the northern Blue Grass. A large area of showers and thunderstorms developed Tuesday evening and is ongoing at 07Z across southern Illinois and southwest Indiana. The convection has survived the nighttime hours in an area of strong mid-level ascent on the nose of a low level jet ahead of a weak upper wave crossing the mid Mississippi Valley, and a pool of 2.3" precipitable water. Cloud tops have been cooling with this activity and there's possibly a hint of an MCV trying to form over the Wabash Valley. This area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to spread east up the Ohio Valley through southern Indiana and north central Kentucky this morning. With very impressive precipitable water values of 2 to 2.3 inches, and some training possible in the east-west band of rain (though individual cells are moving from southwest to northeast), heavy rain is the main threat with this activity. Fortunately much of the area expected to be affected by the heavy rain this morning missed out on much of the action yesterday, except a roughly 40 mile wide band from Hartford to Bardstown to Winchester. If the heavy rain sets up a bit further south than expected then that band will be to be watched closely. Additional storms/redevelopment is expected this afternoon as the next upper level disturbance, over the Ozarks this morning, moves in from the west. Again the best chances for the most widespread convection will be across southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, but development will also be possible in southern Kentucky which will grow very warm and unstable having had less cloud cover and rain in the morning. Low level winds will increase this afternoon from southern Indiana into the northern Blue Grass, and some of the stronger storms may be able to bring those winds down, in addition to downward momentum from heavy downpours, resulting in gusty winds at the surface. Temperatures today will be dependent on rain and clouds. Readings got much warmer than forecast yesterday in the north, but confidence is higher today with respect to the likelihood of clouds and rain in the north, plus we're beginning the day several degrees cooler than we did yesterday, so will once again bet on highs only in the 80s in southern Indiana and north central Kentucky despite the over achievement of temperatures yesterday. Southern Kentucky will once again rise solidly into the lower 90s. Convection should taper off quickly early this evening as the upper support shifts off to the east. Can't entirely rule out lingering convection, but for the most part tonight should be quiet. It will be muggy once again with lows mostly in the 68-73 degree range. We could see some light fog late depending on cloud cover and Wednesday rainfall. Thursday should start out quiet but then thunderstorm chances will increase in the afternoon as a weak surface front drops in from the northwest. We will probably be unstable enough for some strong storms with gusty winds once again. Wet bulb zero heights actually lower a bit tomorrow as the southeast U.S. upper ridge gets deamplified by a broad trof crossing the Great Lakes plus the influence of Bill's remnants over the Ozarks, so there is a slightly better chance of hail in the strongest storms tomorrow than today. Will go on the warm side for temperatures with less cloud and rain expected, resulting in mid 80s to low 90s north to south. Lots of bust potential in this forecast, so stay tuned to the latest updates. .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed June 18 2015 ...Remnants of Tropical Storm Bill Arrive Saturday... The main forecast concern for the long term period is impacts associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill Saturday across the lower Ohio Valley. By Friday, the remnant low of Bill is expected to be across portions of southern Missouri / northern Arkansas. The air mass across the region will remain anomalously juicy with PWATs around 2 inches. With modest instability developing during the day and the interactions with the stalled frontal boundary across southern Indiana, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected. Gusty winds and torrential downpours would accompany some of the stronger clusters. 06.17z deterministic guidance continued to show above average agreement in the track and overall synoptic features of Bill as it crosses through central Kentucky Saturday. Its passage during the peak of daytime heating should aid in widespread showers and storms across much of the area. Combined with PWATs nearly 2.3 inches and warm cloud depths up to 5 km in places, storms will be excellent rainfall producers with very heavy rain and torrential downpours likely. Soundings are nearly saturated through the column with weak lapse rates so other severe weather threats look minimal but we'll have to watch for gusty winds possibly making it down to the surface. Total rainfall Friday into Saturday could be upwards of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. This, combined with any heavier precipitation leading up to this weekend, could make for hydro issues across portions of the area. We'll have to monitor this closely over the next couple of days. The system pushes off to the northeast Saturday night giving way to a west to east clearing of precipitation. After a brief lull Sunday morning, forecast models show a northwest system quick on its heels, passing during the afternoon hours. With modest instability developing and a better shear environment, we'll have to watch for the possibility of stronger storms for portions of the area. Temperatures this weekend will likely have a low diurnal range with deeper moisture/clouds/storms. Plan on muggy, very humid conditions with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 70s. By next week, forecast guidance suggests the deep south ridge may build further and center itself over the mid South. This setup would favor a hot and humid period for the lower Ohio Valley. A model consensus suggests highs could top out in the mid/upper 90s several days with heat indices well above 100 in places. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Updated at 119 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2015 A complex and fairly low confidence forecast as rounds of showers and thunderstorms move through the region, and forecast models struggle. For SDF, there is a good chance that the rain, with embedded thunder, over west central Kentucky at 05Z will survive as it moves northeast toward the airport. Attempted to time this feature in the SDF TAF. Took vsby MVFR in the rain/BR but kept ceilings well VFR. There could be some rumbles of thunder but chances are slim enough to keep them out of the TAF for right now. Low level jetting and upper level energy should conspire to spread more widespread shower activity, along with some thunder, into the SDF and LEX terminals later this morning and lasting off and on through the day. BWG will be south of the main activity but widely scattered thunderstorms will still be possible there, especially in the unstable afternoon. Tonight is looking mostly dry. Depending on rainfall today and clouds tonight, we could see some BR but that can wait for future TAF issuances. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........13 Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........13  FXUS63 KLMK 171917 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 316 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)... Updated at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 17 2015 Scattered showers and storms have developed across our SE CWA in the uncapped and unstable environment. These storms should exhibit pulse characteristics rather than any real organization as deep layer flow is much less closer to the upper ridge axis. Nevertheless, brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning will be threats. Further north across southern IN and north central KY, scattered coverage is expected to fill in through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening where some forcing in response to the right entrance region of an upper jet will combine with moderate instability and additional lift from differential heating. Given, the slightly better flow aloft and moderate instability, a localized severe threat will exist for damaging winds in the strongest multicell clusters or segments. Very heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning will also be threats. Slight risk placement seems pretty reasonable as biggest threat will be across southern IN and north central KY. Coverage should diminish through the late evening, with a relative lull around or just after Midnight. However, another round of scattered storms is expected toward dawn and through the morning hours ahead of a wave ejecting off the remnants of Bill. Placement of this complex should be mainly along and west of I-65 and north of the I-64 corridor. We'll then have several hours to destabilize (much like today) before another round of scattered to numerous showers/storms move in late Thursday afternoon/evening. We'll stay in the downstream firing line of waves of energy ejecting off Bill through Thursday night, so will leave scattered to numerous coverage in acrss much of the area, mostly our northern two-thirds. Overall, low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the low to mid 70s. A few spots across the west may drop into the upper 60s as they saturate with rainfall. Highs Thursday should warm to the upper 80s and low 90s given enough time to heat in between systems. Thursday night lows will again be mild in the low 70s. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2015 ...Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Bill To Arrive Saturday... The main forecast challenge remains focused on the impacts from the remnants of tropical cyclone Bill as it approaches the region on Saturday. By Friday morning, the upper level ridge is forecast to start breaking down as the remnants of Bill lift northward out of OK/AR into southern Missouri. During the day, differential heating combined with plenty of moisture (PWATs AOB 2 inches) will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing. Most significant convective coverage looks to be across our north and west with slightly lesser chances down across our SE. For now, plan on keeping likely PoPs for the north and west with just chance coverage across the southeast. High temperatures will be mitigated by clouds and precipitation with general readings expected to top in the lower 80s in the north with mid-upper 80s across the south/southeast. Overnight lows Friday night will drop into the lower 70s. By Saturday, the remnants of Bill will track across the region. The 17/12Z guidance continue to have good agreement in the overall timing and path. The Euro continue to be a bit more north than the GFS track, but both models do bring the remnants through here during the day where heating max heating occurs. This should promote widespread convection across the region. PWATs rise well above 2 inches and the warm cloud depth is above 4km with some areas above 5km . Thus, these storms will produce torrential rainfall and have good precipitation efficiency. Lapse rates remain rather weak and nearly moist adiabatic, so the threat of severe weather look to be rather low. Most likely, gusty winds will likely be the main weather hazard in addition to the torrential rainfall. The remnants look to move east of the region Saturday night and into Sunday morning. However, the models do signal some sort of MCS develop to our northwest that may crash through the region Sunday afternoon and evening. That system looks to have more instability to to work with than the tropical remnants and may end up being more of a severe weather producer. This will a period to watch over the coming days. For Monday and beyond, we will be locked into a northwesterly flow pattern with the potential for disturbances rolling through the region within the mean flow aloft. There are some signals that we could have another MCS type system in the Tuesday/Tuesday night period. After that, the multi-model consensus has come into better agreement with a large upper level ridge moving eastward out of the Plains and settling across the southeastern US. Based on the current data, that would keep our area mainly dry with temperatures creeping upward through the period. The latest data would suggest low-mid 90s once again...though some areas may approach the upper 90s. Those temps with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will likely push our heat indices up over a 100 degrees. As for QPF for the period, it appears that 2-4 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts is certainty possible. The heaviest axis of rainfall looks to impact our southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky areas. This amount of rainfall, combined with diurnally driven convective rainfall leading up to the extended period may result in an increase in hydrologic issues for portions of our region. This will be monitored closely over the next few days. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1145 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2015 Well...differential heating is commencing across the srn 2/3 of the area. The frontal zone to the north has extensive cloudiness along srn Indiana. This will limit deep convection for SDF and LEX. Thus the best airport for convection will be in the BWG TAF. Convective temperature is 88 degrees in the warm sector. Will continue the theme of TSRA vcnty at BWG and Metwatch LEX and SDF. New NAM has <20 POPs for all 3 sites but feel scattered pops will occur for bottom 3 tiers of KY counties. Storms will dissipate this evening, with a generally quiet overnight. Some light fog may form towards morning at BWG, especially if they measurable rain today. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........BJS Long Term.........MJ Aviation..........JDG  FXUS63 KLMK 180728 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 328 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)... Updated at 315 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 An early morning analysis featured light/variable winds in a very juicy air mass across the region. The 18.00z ILN sounding is quite representative, with its nearly 2 inch PWAT and saturated column. It's what we'll have in place for the next few days as energy associated with the remnants of Bill begin to spread northeast toward the lower Ohio Valley. For today, expecting a mostly dry morning with a mix of sun/clouds as weak subsidence and lack of strong low-level jet should keep precipitation at a minimum. By early afternoon, strong daytime heating with the moist air should result in modest instability in a uncapped environment. Meanwhile, a surface front will approach from the northwest by mid afternoon, skirting southern Indiana and far northern Kentucky. Aloft, the area remains in the presence of stronger mid-level flow while a piece of energy associated with Bill arrives from the southwest. As a result, deep layer shear values approach 30 kts. This combination of shear and instability could result in a few stronger storms by mid afternoon, with the main threats being torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds. The greatest threat for organized strong convection is along and north of I-64 from mid afternoon to early evening. Most of the shower/storm activity will be diurnal in nature and would begin to wane toward/after sunset. 18.00z models show that the aforementioned front stalls across southern Indiana overnight and may be the focus for additional showers/storms, especially as Bill's influence gets closer. Heavy rainfall could accompany these storms. By Friday, as the upper ridge breaks down and Bill get closer, scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected throughout the day, especially across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. The atmosphere will remain anomalously moist as PWATs climb above 2 inches and warm cloud depths exceed 4 km. Maintained likely POPs and kept maximum temperatures closer to climatology given deeper clouds and expected precipitation. From Thursday through Friday afternoon, rainfall amounts could be upwards of 1 to locally 3 inches, especially if training convection occurs Friday. The focus for the highest amounts looks to be southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. This rainfall could set the stage for hydro issues in advance of Bill's arrival Saturday. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Issued at 320 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 ...Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Bill To Arrive Saturday... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Bill still look to arrive Saturday. The 0Z GEM/GFS seem to be a bit slower than the 0Z ECMWF in bringing convection into the region Sat morning. However, ECMWF precip axis has trended farther south more similar to the GFS on this latest run. Still think that what's left of T.C. Bill will pose mainly a flooding threat and potentially a secondary wind threat as well. With precipitable water values (PWATS) rising over 2 inches in most locations Saturday, torrential rainfall is expected. Talked about a possible flash flood watch with neighbors but still feel that there's enough uncertainty in exact location of the heaviest precip axis to hold off on a watch attm. Recent model runs have slowly trended south with the precip axis. Also convection location today and Friday will help determine the most saturated areas and those most likely to see flooding issues from T.C. Bill remnants this weekend. Secondarily, strong winds may pose a threat just ahead of convection or in more intense cells of convection on Saturday. If a slower, less cloudy soln ahead of the main rainfall would play out for Saturday allowing better sfc heating and steeper lapse rates, strong wind gusts could be more of a threat. Right now though it appears that a more cloudy soln would play out though with convection/clouds arriving shortly after sunrise. After T.C. Bill remnants leave the area Sat night, we'll remain in an active northwest flow with MCS activity possible. Models are still showing a decent signal for an MCS Sun night/Mon. A mid level shortwave looks to provide good forcing in this time frame. As previously mentioned, better potential for severe weather may occur with this MCS depending on timing/instability. An upper level ridge will build and strengthen over the southeast U.S. Tues-Thu. While some isld convection may be possible Tues on the north side of the ridge, ridge strength should be strong enough to keep Wed dry for now. Thurs is a bit more in question with some models breaking down the ridging quicker than others. Temperatures in the long term period will be on the rise. Saturday we'll only reach the low to mid 80s with all of the rain around from T.C. Bill remnants. Sun/Mon temps will rise into the upper 80s/lower 90s for highs. By Tues/Wed most locations should be solidly in the low to even mid 90s for highs. Heat indices may approach or exceed 100 degrees by Tues/Wed. Will need to monitor those numbers. Low temps should mainly range through the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)... Updated at 1235 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 Weak subsidence and lack of strong low level jet will keep central Kentucky mostly dry through mid morning. Moist low levels and light winds will support light fog potential at BWG/LEX until a couple hours after sunrise. This afternoon, maximum daytime heating will contribute to a modest pool of instability and combined with an approaching surface front and in the presence of a mid level wave, scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected. Confidence in where the focus will be remains limited but there is enough of signal to introduce a VCTS at all sites, which matches up with the gridded forecast. This activity would begin to wane toward sunset and depending on how it evolves, light fog could be a concern late tonight into Friday morning. Forecast Confidence ====================== Ceilings: High Visibility: Medium/High Winds: High T-storms: Medium && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........ZT Long Term.........AMS Aviation..........ZT  FXUS63 KLMK 181942 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 342 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Updated at 330 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 In the near term, differential heating combined with a very moist/unstable atmosphere has led to the development of convection across the region. The convection is focused currently in two clusters, one along and north of the I-64 corridor from southern Indiana into northern Kentucky, while the other is focused down across the Bowling Green area. Over the remainder of the afternoon, we expect convection to continue to develop. Torrential rainfall, gusty winds and small hail will be the main weather hazards. The training of cells may lead to some hydrologic issues in some areas and we will be keeping an eye on this. The strongest storms over the next few hours will likely be across southern and south-central KY where the northeastward moving storms will interact with an increasingly unstable atmosphere. This area would generally be defined as areas along and south of the Bluegrass and Western KY Parkways. Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 are expected, but storms moving through the region will likely knock temperatures back into the low 80s. For Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish in intensity as we loose diurnal heating. The latest guidance continues to show a frontal boundary stalling out across the region overnight. This feature combined with the nocturnal low-level jet may result in additional showers and storms developing tonight. A mid-level vorticity maximum out ahead of the remnants of Bill is progged to move across the region late tonight, which would aid in convective development. For now, we plan on letting PoPs ramp downward this evening and then ramp back up late tonight toward dawn on Friday. Overnight lows will be mild with readings cooling into the lower 70s. For Friday/Friday night, the upper ridge that has been in place to our south is forecast to break down as the remnants of Bill track closer to the region. Ongoing convection will likely be in progress during the morning hours on Friday. This activity will likely diminish somewhat as the low-level jet axis veers back to the west and the mid-level vort lobe pushes east. Airmass recovery will likely occur during the afternoon and we should see an uptick in convective activity. Anomalously moist PWATs will be above 2 inches and warm cloud depths of over 4km are likely. Torrential rainfall and gusty winds will be possible with any strong convection that develops again. Have gone with the cooler side of the guidance for tomorrow as clouds and precipitation will likely keep temperatures down somewhat. Highs in the low-mid 80s in the north with mid 80s in the south look reasonable. With the remnants of Bill arriving late Friday night, widespread convection with heavy rainfall is expected across much of the region. For this period, have increased PoPs given the relative good model agreement. As for rainfall amounts, we expect 1-3 inches of rainfall from this afternoon through Friday night across the region. Current forecast has the heaviest rainfall in a swath along the Ohio River with lesser amounts across our southeastern areas. This in very close agreement with WPC QPF and the OHRFC QPF fields. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 ...Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Bill To Arrive Saturday... The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will feature persistent upper-level ridging across the south/southeastern CONUS, with the Ohio Valley remaining on the periphery of this ridge. This will allow for multiple disturbances to ride through the flow aloft, including the remnants of what once was Tropical Storm Bill which will bring several rounds of showers/storms to the region through the extended. Saturday will begin with the remnants of Bill impacting the region. A seasonably high slug of moisture will accompany this system, as PWATS climb well above two inches. Luckily, the timing seems to be rather unfavorable to promote organized severe weather as it appears the clouds/precip should enter into the region before heating can be maximized. 850mb winds will increase to 40-50 knots in response to the approaching disturbance. Therefore, stronger winds will be just off the surface and even mediocre convection could mix down some stronger gusts. Additionally, the stronger winds off the surface will help increase low-level shear which could aid in some storm rotation, conditional upon sufficient instability developing. These threats will be something to monitor, but really think the timing of the cloud cover and expected rain shield will really limit any widespread severe threat. The main threat with this system will be the heavy rainfall which may lead to some localized flooding issues. Debated putting up a Flash Flood Watch, but just not sure how widespread flash flooding will be at this time. 3-hour guidance ranges from 2 to 3.5 inches across the area currently, but this will likely go down in coming days as rain falls Friday/Friday night. While the rain will be heavy at times, the lack of instability may limit the convective flare to much of the rainfall and it may be a more stratiform precip with perhaps some localized areal flooding. Also, the event is still 48 hours away, so there is still some time to nail down details. For all of these reasons, will continue with the ESF and hold off on any products for now. On Saturday into Saturday night, rainfall amounts look to range from 1-2 inches areawide. For the remainder of the long term, the flow aloft will turn more to the northwest as a strong ridge builds into the southern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary will push into portions of IN/OH during the day on Sunday, sliding into north-central KY Sunday evening. Guidance suggests we will become quite unstable ahead of the boundary on Sunday, but will likely have a decent cap to overcome. Therefore, will limit coverage to 30-40 percent at this time. Any storm that develops in this strongly unstable environment could become strong to severe. The latest guidance suite suggests this boundary will stall somewhere near the Ohio Valley Monday through at least Wednesday of next week. It appears this front will remain close enough to the better mid-level flow of 30-50 knots, promoting the threat for strong to severe MCSs to track through the region. Just how strong these get will depend on the time of day they come through and just how strong each individual wave is, but the overall synoptic setup is there for some active weather mainly across the northern half of the CWA. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 340 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 Differential heating and a moist atmospheric profile will lead to heavy rainfall with diurnally driven convection over the next 24 hours. The remnants of tropical storm Bill will move into the area Friday night and pass through the region on Saturday and into Saturday night. Our current forecast projections show area wide basin average rainfall of 2 to 4 inches. Locally higher amounts of 5+ inches in some isolated areas can not be ruled out. This rainfall is expected to fall from this afternoon through Sunday morning. Soil conditions across the region vary greatly given the scattered diurnally driven rainfall of the last few days. Soil moisture values are fairly high across southern Indiana and portions of north central KY from recent rains. These soil moisture values will increase over the next day as additional convection develops. Soils are expected to become saturated over the weekend as the remnants of Bill push through the region. Current flash flood guidance indicates that we can take about 2-3 inches of rain over a 2-6 hour period, while 24 hour flash flood values of 4+ inches were noted in the guidance. Currently we have a hydrologic outlook (ESFLMK) product in effect. The expected rainfall over the next 72 hours may result in hydrologic issues over portions of our region. Localized flooding will be possible and quick rises on area creeks and streams are likely. However deterministic and ensemble guidance does not indicate that river flooding will be particularly widespread at this time. Should these ideas change, flash flood watches may be required in future forecast issuances. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 114 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2015 Convective temperatures are being reached at the moment and scattered convection is developing across the region. The most coverage is expected to be across the Bluegrass region of KY affecting the KLEX this afternoon. Some additional convection over west-central TN will also move northeast and may affect the KBWG terminal this afternoon. The latest guidance continues to be in agreement that the convection will diminish after sunset and some light fog could be an issue at the terminals overnight. There is also a signal in the data that suggests a minor wave out ahead of Bill will approach the region tonight, possibly firing some additional convection toward dawn Friday. For this package, we plan on running with VFR conditions prevailing this afternoon/evening with thunderstorms in vicinity of the terminals. Current thinking is that MVFR visibilities will be seen at KBWG/KLEX after 19/09Z through about 19/13-14Z. Forecast Confidence ====================== Ceilings: High Visibility: Medium Winds: High T-storms: Medium && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........MJ Long Term.........KJD Hydrology.........MJ Aviation..........MJ  FXUS63 KLMK 191931 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 331 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)... Updated at 310 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2015 ...Flash Flood Watch for Southern Indiana and Central Kentucky Continues through Saturday... In the short term, the remnants of tropical Cyclone Bill are currently centered over southeastern MO. Widespread cloudiness out ahead of Bill has kept temperatures down below convective thresholds. However, skies have started to scour out and differential heating combined with a moisture rich atmosphere has led to convection developing. The convection is rather disorganized over central KY...mainly in just clusters. More organization was noted out over western KY and central TN where convective bands were observed. For the remainder of the afternoon, we expect convection to become more widespread. DCAPE values and microburst indices are significantly lower than what we saw yesterday afternoon owing to the lack of insolation of today. Nonetheless, torrential rainfall and gusty winds along with lightning will be the main weather hazards. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid-upper 80s in the next hour or so with temperatures falling back into the upper 70s and lower 80s this evening. Convective coverage will increase tonight and continue through Saturday morning as the actual remnants of Bill push eastward through the region. Utilizing an ensemble approach of the current models, a general west to east motion is expected with Bill passing through overnight. While overall convective coverage will increase tonight, the lack of instability will likely keep the threat of thunderstorms more isolated to scattered. However, high PWAT values and deep warm cloud depths will allow storms to be effectiveness rain producers. Torrential rainfall and gusty winds will be the primary threats. With the actual low passing through the region, an increase in low-level wind shear may provide an environment favorable for a few isolated spin up tornadoes within the convective bands...though the overall probabilities of tornado production are rather low...but non-zero. In general, we have bumped PoPs up to 100% for tonight as all locations should see rainfall. Lows tonight and Saturday night will be mild with readings only cooling into the lower 70s. Highs Saturday will be limited to the lower-middle 80s. With regards to rainfall amounts, a widespread swatch of 2-3 inches of rainfall is expected across the region. Placing the heaviest axis of rainfall is difficult, but the multi-model consensus suggests somewhere from around Paducah to E-town to Richmond. Isolated higher amounts of 3+ inches will be possible in some isolated areas. The area at most risk for flash flooding would be across southern Indiana and that part of KY north of I-64 where heavy convection dropped quite a bit of rainfall Thursday afternoon and early this morning. For this reason, the Flood Watch will remain in effect through Saturday afternoon. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2015 The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will feature a ridge across much of the southern CONUS, which will slowly build east/northeast into at least southern KY through the middle of next week. Above average uncertainty exists through much of the long term period as the Ohio Valley will be on the periphery of the building upper-level ridge across the southern CONUS. Guidance is in a bit of disagreement as to how far north this ridge will build, and the strength/timing of individual waves sliding around this ridge in the northwest flow aloft. Forecast confidence is highest on Sunday afternoon into early Sunday night. Guidance suggests a PV anomaly will slide southeast through the northwest flow aloft. In response, a surface low will push through the Great Lakes, dragging an associated cold front southeast into central/southern IN. Surface convergence along this front coupled with ascent from the passing PV anomaly should be enough to fire convection across portions of central/southern IN Sunday afternoon, perhaps pushing into portions of northern KY by Sunday evening. The one limiting factor will be a decent cap which should limit convection initially, but the overall consensus in the guidance is that strong heating and the incoming forcing should erode this cap by the afternoon hours. Initially, storms could be multicells/transient supercells given 30-40 knots of deep-layer shear coupled with the strong instability (3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE). However, this convection will likely merge into line segments by the evening. This means a hail threat initially may likely transition to more of a wind threat with time as 0-3km shear vectors (oriented mainly WNW to ESE) around 30 knots suggest line segments should be able to keep upright convection along their cold pools. Forecast confidence decreases by Monday through the end of next week as guidance differs on the timing/strength of each wave riding the periphery of the building ridge. For now, will go with a general blend of the 19/12Z GEFS and the 19/12Z ECMWF solutions. This places the highest chances for precipitation mainly across the northeast half of the CWA through much of the week, with lower chances across southern KY where subsidence from the ridge will likely win out. Any complex of storms will likely be on the periphery of stronger mid-level flow, so these could be strong/severe depending on the exact timing. In areas where it doesn't rain, temperatures will be quite hot! Highs in the middle 90s look increasingly likely for many areas in KY next week, which coupled with dewpoints in the 70s, will bring heat indices above 100 degrees at times. Heat advisories could be needed for some areas next week given this expected airmass, so stay tuned! && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2015 The remnants of tropical cyclone Bill will move toward the region this afternoon and then pass through the region tonight and Saturday. Spiral bands of convection will continue to develop across the region this afternoon with the highest chances of rainfall out across the western and southern areas. Latest guidance has not really changed all that much with the QPF. Currently we are not sticking to one particular deterministic model, but rather utilizing the ensembles here. That being said, a swatch of 2 to 3 inches of rain looks very likely across much of southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Some isolated 3+ inch amounts will be possible. The axis of heaviest QPF still looks to be along and just south of the Ohio River...roughly from Paducah to E-town to Richmond. Flash flood guidance has come up slightly over the region. Our southern Indiana counties and far northern KY counties (along and north of the I-64 corridor) are at most risk for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall over the past few days. Further south, like in areas south of the BG and WKY Parkways, flash flood guidance values are higher. The current flood watch will remain in effect and no changes to the area are expected. Initial thoughts were that if significant rainfall developed across southern KY today, that we might of needed to expand it south. The cloud cover has kept convection more suppressed early this afternoon, but breaks in the cloud cover will allow convection across TN to grow upscale and affect this region later today. Given the higher flash flood guidance across the south and the initial lack of rainfall, no southward expansion is required at this time. Nevertheless, rain bands from Bill's remnants will affect the region tonight and Saturday with periods of torrential rainfall. This may result in localized flood issues in some areas along with rises on area creeks and streams. Current deterministic and ensemble river model guidance continues does not indicate the potential for widespread river flooding. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Updated at 113 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2015 Widespread cloudiness has kept instability lower across the region this morning and early this afternoon. However, some breaks in the cloud cover will allow instability to increase and convective coverage is expected to pick up during the afternoon hours. The remnants of tropical cyclone Bill will approach the region tonight bringing several rounds of convection to the region. Spiral bands out ahead of the approaching remnants will start to move into the region late this afternoon and evening. Prevailing conditions will generally be VFR, however, within these spiral bands, visibilities and ceilings will drop into the MVFR or even the IFR range for a brief time. Convection is expected to become more widespread overnight as the remnants of Bill move through the area. For now, plan on carrying MVFR conditions at the terminals with rain showers. Current data suggests that conditions may drop to the IFR category late tonight (after 20/09Z) at all the terminals. Winds through the period will be out of southeast and then shift to the south overnight with speeds of 4-5 knots this afternoon and then increase to 8-10kts overnight. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Saturday night FOR KYZ023>043- 045>049-053>057-066-067. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late Saturday night FOR INZ076>079-083- 084-089>092. && $$ Short Term........MJ Long Term.........KJD Hydrology.........MJ Aviation..........MJ  FXUS63 KLMK 021921 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 321 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015 .SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)... Issued at 250 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015 ...Flash Flooding Possible Through Friday Across Southern Indiana and Central Kentucky... As of mid-afternoon, a surface analysis showed a weak area of low pressure across southern Missouri while a stationary boundary lied west to east from southern Illinois into southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. A pool of very moist air lies along this feature characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and light southwesterly winds. For the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening, the patch of clearing clouds across southwest into south-central KY has resulted in modest amounts of instability across the area. Daytime heating is also bringing 1000 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE to the area. In the presence of 20 to 30 kts of deep layer shear, scattered thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential to put down some gusty winds. The two areas likely to see greater coverage of showers/storms is 1) along the Ohio River in the vicinity of the stalled boundary and 2) closer to south-central Kentucky which has had the most clearing/destabilization. Water vapor imagery shows that another upper level disturbance will arrive later this evening through early Friday morning, which will push the surface low and front through the region. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the area. Main threat through Friday morning is flash flooding thanks to torrential rainfall. PWATs are running 1.5 to 2.0 inches with relatively high warm cloud depths. Soil moisture is running high thanks to a couple weeks of higher than normal rainfall and especially across some areas after last night's rainfall. Lowest flash flood guidance pockets are across southern Indiana and south-central Kentucky. The flash flood watch continues and was expanded/extended for the area. For more details, see the Hydrology section below. Diurnal temperature ranges will be low as clouds/rain keep highs below normal and lows on the mild side. Sided with the higher performing model consensus, putting highs in the mid 70s to around 80s and lows in the upper 60s. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015 Saturday/Saturday Night... An upper trough axis should move east through the area shunting a sfc boundary to the south of the Ohio River. It's still in question as to how far south the boundary will settle on Sat and that may be a determining factor on where convection fires later in the day. The latest trend in mid range models has been to push the boundary into south central KY or TN. However, the latest NAM keeps it a little farther north. Still will keep the southern trend going and limit precip chances to 30-50% Sat afternoon. Scattered convection is likely to continue into the evening hours before diminishing after midnight. With fairly meager wind profiles and ridging building into the region Sat night, feel that storms will generally stay below severe limits. At this point it is fairly difficult to pinpoint exactly who will and won't see convection Sat afternoon/evening. As for temperatures, highs should be quite pleasant in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures Sat night should be in the mid 60s. Sunday/Monday... Upper level ridging should work into the region for Sun helping suppress convection both Sun/Mon. Soundings indicate good capping over the Ohio Valley for the beginning of the week, so will trend POPs downward even making Sun night dry. Any storms that do develop should stay on the weak side. Temperatures will be on the increase as thicknesses increase over the region. Highs should range through the low to mid 80s both Sun/Mon with Monday being the warmer day. Tuesday - Thursday... The next weather system will approach our area Tuesday bringing potentially several rounds of showers and storms for mid week. Another sfc front looks to become stalled over the Midwest with rounds of storms occurring daily as various waves ride along the boundary. The 12Z Euro looks quite wet leaving the boundary nearly stationary over our area for much of mid week. The 12Z GFS wobbles the boundary a little more and wouldn't be quite as wet as the Euro. High temps look to remain at or slightly below normal while low temps will remain at or slightly above normal. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2015 24 hour precipitation analysis shows widespread 0.5 to 1 inch amounts across south central Kentucky into southern Indiana. A locally higher swath occurred from Ohio County southeastward toward Allen/Monroe counties, where 1 to locally 4 inches were observed. Finally, between 2 and 4 inches fell across parts of Dubois and Crawford counties. As a result, 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance remains very low given the recent rainfall plus the above average precipitation in the past 2 to 3 weeks. 1 hour guidance across portions of southern Indiana and southern Kentucky is 1 inch or less, which is quite attainable given the anomalous high PWATs, stagnant low level moisture and favorable synoptic features for heavy rainfall. The flash flood watch was expanded to include the remaining portions of the forecast area given both antecedent conditions and the expectation that more showers/storms will redevelop this afternoon through Friday morning. Beyond Friday morning, the threat could continue with additional storms and after coordination with surrounding offices, the watch was also extended in time to 00z Saturday /8 PM EDT/. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)... Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2015 Afternoon destabilization ahead of a surface low combined with a stalled frontal boundary across the area will support an uptick in showers/storms through the early evening hours. Highest chances are centered around 21-00z timeframe...and BWG to LEX looks to have the greatest chance of seeing aviation restrictions. As precipitation wanes this evening, attention turns to fog potential. Light/variable winds tonight combined with the moisture and recent rainfall leads to higher confidence for periods of MVFR to IFR fog potentially. Guidance hits LEX/BWG...so have trended TAFs toward that possibility. By Friday morning, another weather system could bring more showers/storms to the area. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049- 053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084- 089>092. && $$ Short Term........ZT Long Term.........AMS Hydrology.........ZT Aviation..........ZT  FXUS63 KLMK 202325 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 725 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2016 Now - This Evening... Bands of light rain and snow courtesy of an upper low crossing the region will continue to slowly push south this evening through south central KY. Areas that see a change over to light snow might see light slushy accums that are transient and short-lived. Don't think we'll see any impacts from the quick light snow accums with ground temps well above freezing. Expect precipitation to wind down before midnight. Tonight - Monday Night... For the rest of tonight, expect dry conditions as the upper low moves off to the southeast. Skies should become partly cloudy to mostly clear after midnight allowing temps to plummet in the colder airmass. Expect lows to reach the mid to upper 20s in the Bluegrass region and upper 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Although we haven't entered the main part of the growing season where a lot of vegetation would be negatively impacted by these sub-freezing temps (thus no freeze warning will be issued), still feel an SPS is in order to highlight the cold temps. At least this will hopefully give folks that do have early plants out to cover them and take precautions if they want. Patchy to areas of frost are expected with moist low levels, light winds and sub-freezing temps. Sfc high pressure will move in for Mon/Mon night keeping us dry. Highs in the lower 50s are expected for Mon under partly cloudy skies. Mon night temps will range through the 30s with our east central KY valleys getting the coldest and perhaps experiencing some patchy frost. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2016 Tuesday - Thursday... Mid week will feature breezy conditions ahead of an approaching cold front. Tues and most locations on Wed will be dry with strong SW winds gusting up to 20-30 mph each afternoon/evening. These winds will bring warmer temps back into the region with highs in the 60s both days. Night time lows will become more mild in the upper 40s and 50s. Late in the day Wed, we'll start to see some rain shower activity over southern IN from isentropic lift ahead of the approaching wx system. Rain shower chances will continue to increase Wed night with isld t-storms possible as well. Thursday will be the primary time period for a line of showers/storms ahead of a cold front to push west to east across the area. Wind profiles will be favorable for strong storms although instability will be in question this far north along the front. Also, several timing solns and low pressure tracks amongst mid range models still exist adding more complexity to the forecast. For now, plan on everyone seeing rain, at times moderate, on Thurs with scattered t-storms. High temps on Thu will again be in the 60s. Friday - Sunday... The last part of the week and into the weekend will feature a dry but cool Fri. Temps will drop back into the 50s for highs on Fri in the post-frontal airmass. Another upper level trough looks to bring active weather to the region again by late Sat and into early next week with rain chances increasing towards Mon. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 720 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2016 VFR conditions are forecast this period for each of the sites. The lower deck at BWG has scattered out and the next deck coming in, according to obs and GOES-R MVFR probabilities, is a mid deck. Winds will continue from the northwest this evening. High pressure will move into the Deep South Monday, keeping our winds generally westerly. A diurnal cumulus field is possible in the late morning and afternoon, but again bases are expected to be VFR. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........AMS Long Term.........AMS Aviation..........RJS  FXUS63 KLMK 272259 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 659 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 610 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2016 Convection firing up along a residual east/west boundary across central Kentucky has been the interest so far this afternoon and early evening. Environment is characterized by 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE with effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts. An area of enhanced low level helicity exists as well, which is helping to sustain some of the supercells across west-central KY. As a result, feel there is a short-lived tornado threat and a tornado watch has been posted for portions of the western areas. And further back south/west, we'll have to watch the main line of storms roll through the area later this evening. Hi-res models have a good handle on this coming through with the potential for a damaging wind and hail threat. .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)... Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2016 As an upper low moves between Omaha and Des Moines tonight and a speed max rounds its base, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop INVOF the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers late this afternoon/early this evening. This convection should then head northeast up the Ohio Valley. Scattered storms will also be possible over the rest of central Kentucky in the warm and unstable sector south of a warm front stretched out along Interstate 64. There has been a lot of rain already today, limiting surface-based instability along and either side of the warm front. The warm front is not expected to move much other than perhaps a slight northward drift. This would bring more unstable air slightly northward despite earlier rains. In short, it will be an evening of monitoring radar and satellite trends to see exactly where new convection sets up to our west/southwest and moves into the area. WBZ heights around 10k feet support hail as the main threat. If the surface remains relatively stable the wind threat may be slightly lessened...but will have to see how the warm front behaves and how much of a break we can get between afternoon convection overhead and incoming convection from the west this evening. There has been torrential rain over a narrow band between Elizabethtown and Mammoth Cave this afternoon, resulting in some minor hydro issues in that area. Additional water problems will be possible this evening under the heaviest rainers, especially in urban centers. Tomorrow the upper low will weaken and advance into the Great Lakes. By afternoon lapse rates and cu rule support sct/bkn cu development. PWATs look quite low and atmospheric cross-section show very little available moisture. Can't rule out pop-up afternoon showers, though, especially from southern Indiana to the Kentucky Blue Grass. Thursday night high pressure will nose in from the northwest and give us a pleasant night with temperatures dropping into the lower and middle 50s. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2016 High pressure to our north will give us a very nice day on Friday with partly cloudy skies and temperatures peaking in the 70s. We then enter into what should be a very wet weekend. Low pressure will lazily move from the Red River Valley Saturday morning to the mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday evening. The Gulf will be wide open and models are progging a healthy low level jet bringing moisture northward. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will be the result. One to three inches of rain over the course of the entire weekend isn't out of the question. Things should then dry out for the first part of the new work week before the next system begins to approach by mid-week. High temperatures throughout the long term will be in the 70s, although some locations may not make it out of the 60s in southern Indiana on Saturday. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 658 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2016 A line of intense storms will impact BWG by 00z, SDF closer to 01- 02z, and LEX by around 03-04z. SDF stands the greatest chance of seeing a harder hit with strong to severe winds, frequent CG lightning and torrential rain for 1 to 2 hours. In the wake of this complex of storms, expect plenty of low level moisture and combined with nighttime cooling, there's a chance of IFR to low MVFR ceilings developing by 06z or so, holding through dawn or so. Guidance hits the IFR probabilities the hardest at SDF/LEX. For Thursday, some broken MVFR ceilings likely in the morning but conditions should begin to improve with daytime heating and some drier air. Some gusty winds will develop in the late morning and afternoon. Chances for showers/storms are significantly less so will hold off mentioning anything in the TAF right now. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........ZT Short Term.....13 Long Term......13 Aviation.......ZT  FXUS63 KLMK 031032 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 632 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016 ...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week... An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a showery and cooler than normal period of weather. Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the low to mid 60s in many spots. Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere. Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s. Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally severe hailers isn't out of the question. In addition, any surface heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016 Wednesday Night - Thursday... Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green should sneak into the low 60s. Thursday Night - Friday Night... The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder in the low 50s. Saturday... Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River. Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching. Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80. We'll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late afternoon and early evening. Saturday Night - Monday... The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening. Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable. Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 619 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016 Latest IR imagery and GOES-R MVFR/IFR probabilities show an area of IFR stratus across southwest to central Indiana slowly dropping south into north central Kentucky. This will most likely impact SDF and LEX through the morning hours with low ceilings. There are some visibility restrictions but feel the main aviation challenge is ceilings. Expect this deck to continue for a few hours but slowly lifting as the initial upper level system passes the area. Plan on light west/northwest winds today and mostly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible but will continue to leave out of TAF. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........BJS Long Term.........BJS Aviation..........ZT  FXUS63 KLMK 172312 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 712 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 ...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 645 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016 Upped the rain chances over southern Indiana to categorical given plume of moisture streaming into that region. Some hi-res guidance continues to indicate additional showers developing overnight over Kentucky, in response to an upper level jet getting a little more organized over Indiana and Ohio through the overnight. Have started to trend the forecast up there for overnight. Otherwise trended the rest of the forecast toward current obs. .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016 Cloudy and cool conditions continue across the Ohio Valley as a very March-like pattern persists. Patchy light rain continues to move through, but the steady rain has stopped for some time and the main upper wave along the I-44 corridor in MO has stayed far enough north that most of the precip should track across Illinois and Indiana. Still expect most locations to see measurable rainfall again later afternoon and into this evening as this disturbance swings through. So it's a high-POP/low-QPF forecast tonight, with a minimal drop in temps. Precip should taper off from NW-SE after midnight, with only a slight chance lingering into Wed morning in the Lake Cumberland area. For Wednesday expect the last of the precip to exit by late morning, with partial clearing from the north as the afternoon progresses. Temperatures will remain solidly below normal, but should run close to 10 degrees warmer than today. Should clear the rest of the way on Wed night, but light NE winds should be just enough to head off any fog potential Thu morning. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016 Main system of interest in the long term is a deepening upper low that will bring widespread rain to the Ohio Valley Thursday night through early Saturday. Most pleasant weather day of this work week appears to be Thursday, with shortwave ridging aloft and a surface high over the Great Lakes. Expect sunshine and temps recovering to near seasonal normals. However, by Thursday night the next system will take shape over the Southern Plains. With an inverted sfc trof lifting through the Tennessee Valley and a good low/mid-level Gulf moisture tap, rain appears to be a near-certainty. Good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF, but the NAM12 is an outlier in not bringing the precip this far north. At this point this is seen as an outlier, so will have likely or categorical POPs Friday into Friday night. Instability is only marginal so will limit thunder to a chance mention, but the main issue will be QPF. Basin averages will easily run 1 inch, with higher amounts where there is more convective character. Much of the precip could fall in short enough periods on Friday to cause localized flooding. Models are coming into agreement on a sufficiently progressive solution to get the upper low to the mid-Atlantic coast before it closes off sometime late Saturday. Will carry chance POPs and low QPF on Saturday for any lingering precip, with Sat max temps fairly quick to recover toward climo as heights rise. Sun-Tue will feature a blocky pattern with the closed low along the East Coast, and building ridge over the Midwest. Will string together 3 dry days with temps near or above normal. Humidity will start to creep up later in the week, but will hold off any storm chances beyond the scope of the 7-day forecast. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016 Ceiling heights and how hard the rain falls are the main threats this period. Expect LIFR to MVFR ceilings for most of this forecast. The worst time looks to be focused between 05 and 15Z at each site, with SDF having the best chance at staying MVFR the longest. Latest GOES-R IFR probability product has a band just between BWG and SDF, affecting LEX, this hour. Expect with sunset and into the evening that this band will expand, possibly briefly getting into SDF in the 05-08Z time frame before retreating south a little. High pressure nosing into the region overnight should start pushing the better rain chances southward, with those chances dropping off at all sites around daybreak. Winds will persist from the northeast as that high pressure builds in. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........RJS Short Term.....RAS Long Term......RAS Aviation.......RJS  FXUS63 KLMK 311055 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 655 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term (Now through Tuesday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 ...An All-Time November Record High at Louisville on Tuesday?... Today and Tonight... A weak cold front is sliding south across Kentucky at this hour, with just enough post-frontal moisture to continue mention of a pockets of drizzle or sprinkles. Not seeing any sites measure, so will leave any mentionable pops out. Surface high pressure currently centered over the Great Lakes will quickly slide east toward New England today, bringing a slow return to southerly flow as the frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. The boundary combined with differential cloud cover from north to south should create a nice temp gradient. Look for highs around 70 north, to around 80 south. South winds stay up a bit overnight, which should yield mild lows in the low 60s in most spots. A few upper 50s NE are possible. Tuesday... Upper ridge centered over the Gulf Coast will strengthen over our region by Tuesday. We'll continue to see a decent pressure gradient with steady SW flow through the day. Good mixing up around the 850 mb level will help translate 13-14 C 850 temps to the low and mid 80s at the surface. These temps will likely break a few records at Louisville/Bowling Green. It will be close at Frankfort and Lexington. Most notably, the all-time warmest November high temperature at Louisville appears to be in jeopardy. It was 84 back in 1958. Feel pretty confident we will at least tie the record, but will go ahead and forecast a new record of 85 due to how dry and how much we have been overachieving under full heating/good mixing conditions lately. The other climate sites look to fall just short of their all-time record highs at this point but it will be close. Here are some Nov 1 records... Nov 1 Fcst All-Time Nov. SDF 83, 1987 85 84, 1958 BWG 83, 2000 85 88, 1909 LEX 83, 1987 82 83, 1987 FFT 84, 1950 83 84, 1987 & 1950 .Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 ...Record Highs Possible Wednesday... Tuesday Night - Wednesday Evening... We'll stay under the influence of upper ridging and surface high pressure through mid week, keeping sensible weather dry and well above normal for temps. After mild overnight lows around 60 on Tuesday night, near-record highs are again expected on Wednesday. Look for low 80s. Sky cover will increase through the day as the upper ridge begins to break down in response to a shortwave across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. We'll keep the evening dry, but will look for precipitation chances as we move past Midnight Thursday. Below is a look at Nov 2 records, and forecast highs. Nov. 2 Fcst SDF 82, 1987 82 BWG 85, 1946 82 LEX 82, 1987 80 FFT 83, 1987 81 Wednesday Night - Thursday... Shortwave and it's associated surface low will push east through the Great Lakes and into New England by Thursday evening. This will drag a trailing cold front through our area, with solid rain chances in the 40-60 percent range. Wednesday night lows should be in the low 60s, with cooler highs on Thursday in the low 70s. Thursday Night - Sunday... Trough axis digs sharply and quickly through our area by Thursday night, and closes off over the SW Atlantic by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a blocking upper ridge axis will move from the central Plains toward the eastern CONUS by Sunday. This brings a return to dry conditions with temperatures mostly in the upper 60s to near 70. Friday will be the coolest day with mid 60s. Lows will also be noticeably cooler well into the 40s each night. && .Aviation (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 SDF/LEX: Seeing persistent fuel-alternate or worse ceilings at these sites. GOES-R MVFR probabilities showed a brief gap, at the same time SDF/LOU scattered out briefly. Those gaps are gone now. With heating, expect a slow rise in cigs into the early afternoon hours. Winds will shift from northeasterly now to southeasterly this afternoon and then become southerly overnight, as high pressure to our northeast today shifts farther east of us. BWG: Low clouds looking like they won't make it here. Vsby may drop into the MVFR range, but otherwise conditions look better than previously thought. Conditions should solidly be VFR by late morning. Winds will be variable through the period. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........BJS Long Term.........BJS Aviation..........RJS  FXUS63 KLMK 031428 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 928 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .Forecast Update... Issued at 925 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Mid-level stratus deck persists this morning. It showed up nicely in the morning lows this morning, with readings in the upper 30s to around 40 over northern KY and southern IN and readings around 30 over south KY. GOES-R MVFR probability maps show this layer well, with little movement. Forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM indicate this moist layer drying up from above in the 18-21Z time frame, but cloud deck above will keep us mostly cloudy the rest of the day. Those high clouds will thicken up tonight. Model timing still looks good for light precip to begin later this evening over our KY/TN border and then progressing northward. May make a later tweak this morning as 12Z models pour in. && .Short Term (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 An early morning analysis showed surface high pressure across the mid MS and lower OH river valleys. Aloft, a deep closed low was centered along the AZ/Mexico border, which was helping to push a plume of mid/high clouds across the southern Plains into the TN Valley. Locally, IR satellite showed a stratus deck across Indiana and northern KY with just high clouds across southern Kentucky. Readings were in the mid 30s to lower 40s. For today, expect a mainly cloudy but dry day. There will be a small diurnal rise in temperatures today with highs in the low/mid 40s across southern Indiana to mid/upper 40s across southern Kentucky. Increasing isentropic lift with the approach of the upper level shortwave energy will break out light precipitation across Tennessee this evening. This will move into southern Kentucky after sunset then spread north/northeast through the night. Precipitation type will be mostly rain but a few wet snowflakes may mix at the onset, especially across southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky however no accumulations or impacts are expected with very warm surface ground temperatures. Lows will be generally in the 32-38 range. Weak but persistent isentropic lift will keep pumping more moisture into the region on Sunday along with another mid level wave coming out of Missouri and Illinois later in the day. This will keep the threat of light rain throughout much of the day. Overall, amounts are expected to be 0.25 of an inch or less, with the highest amounts focused along the KY/TN border. High temperatures will again be stuck in the 40s. .Long Term (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 225 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 An unsettled week weather-wise with several systems to focus on early this morning. In the wake of Sunday's rain maker, a brief lull is in store Monday morning as a quick moving high pressure system slides across the region. Lingering low-level moisture and a light wind field may promote patchy fog development early Monday morning, otherwise plan on temperatures starting out in the mid/upper 30s. A strong, more organized upper level shortwave and surface low pressure will kick out of Texas and lift toward the region late Monday into Tuesday. This well-advertised system will spread rain from the south/southwest into the area Monday evening and especially throughout the day on Tuesday. Some heavy downpours will be possible. All of the available forecast guidance is in reasonable agreement so precipitation chances remain in the 80 to 100 percent range Monday Night and Tuesday. Soundings do show some elevated instability across parts of central Kentucky so the isolated thunder mention looks good as well. Total rainfall for this event is currently projected to be around 1 inch for most of the area. As that system lifts through the region, the focus turns to the north as a strong upper level closed low drops out of Canada into the Upper Midwest. Pieces of energy will pivot along the base of the upper trough while at the surface, strong Canadian high pressure dives southward. There remains some differences in timing between the GFS, GEM and ECMWF solutions showing a strong cold front passage between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon. The ECMWF is a slower, wetter but warmer solution while the GFS and GEM are less phased which results in lighter QPF but bringing the cold air in sooner. A model consensus blend was used which shows low chance precipitation chances with mostly rain in the forecast though the GFS solution would support some snow on the back end of the cold front passage. Regardless, the main highlight will be the sharply colder temperatures in its wake, beginning potentially Thursday but more likely Thursday Night and Friday. High temperatures on Friday may struggle to break 30 degrees in many places after starting out the morning in the teens. && .Aviation (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 616 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Pesky low clouds continue over SDF and LEX. These clouds have not been handled well by the forecast models and now are difficult to see beneath higher clouds on satellite pictures. At this time the thought is that these clouds will continue for several more hours before finally letting go. There may be a brief period shortly after sunrise where they scatter out before filling back in for the rest of the morning, before breaking up for good by midday. Ceilings should be just barely VFR. For the rest of the TAF period higher clouds will stream in from the southwest ahead of an approaching storm system. Clouds will slowly lower and thicken as the TAF period progresses. Some very light rain could fall at BWG in the last few hours of that site's TAF period, and sprinkles or flurries may occur at SDF in the planning period. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...RJS Short Term........ZT Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........13  FXUS63 KLMK 191417 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 917 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 ...Updated Forecast Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 915 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Updated forecast to increase sky cover, extend patchy fog and lower highs today across the entire area. 12z soundings from ILN, ILX, and OHX along with recent PIREPS and GOES estimated cloud thicknesses indicate the stratus layer about 1500 to 2000 ft thick this morning across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Surface high pressure resides over central Kentucky while the mid/upper ridge axis remains west along the MS River. HRRR and RAP soundings hold onto the saturation in the low level inversion through at least mid afternoon while the mid/upper ridge axis slowly pushes east. Overall surface wind fields will be very light as well. In short, think the stratus will linger longer into the day so have trended forecast toward more mostly cloudy to overcast. Subsequently, lowered highs 3-5 degrees, especially along/east of I-65 where clouds are most likely to hang around. This matches with some of latest guidance coming in showing highs in the low/mid 60s. It's possible some areas around the Bluegrass may stay below 60. Area observations and webcams do show some patchy fog across parts of the area, so extended that in the forecast a few more hours. Issued at 628 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 The dense fog has mainly stayed to the west and south of the area this morning with just occasional visibility drops to half a mile or less. Have therefore decreased the fog wording in the grids to patchy. In addition, some drizzle has been reported and can be seen on radar. This was added into the forecast for the next few hours across southern IN and north central KY. .Short Term (Now through Monday)... Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 The axis of the upper level low has shifted east of the region tonight. A few light rain showers or sprinkles may continue over east central KY for the next hour or two, but for the most part the rain has ended. The main concern for early this morning is the potential for fog development. Areas of dense fog have formed west of the forecast area across west central KY and parts of southwestern IN. The latest mesoscale guidance continues to indicate this fog will spread eastward over the next few hours. The primary area for fog looks to be mainly along and north of the Ohio River. Will continue to monitor webcams and observations and assess the need for a Dense Fog Advisory. If fog does form, it will likely linger into the mid morning hours before mixing out. Regardless of lower visibilities, the stratus deck looks to hang around through the morning hours under an inversion. We should finally start to see clouds break up by mid day or into the early afternoon. For tonight, surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast of the region with ridging aloft. An inversion will again develop with low level moisture remaining in place, particularly along and north of the Bluegrass Parkway. Some patchy fog may develop tonight in this area. Despite the clouds, we should see a decent warm up today with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Highs for Monday will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .Long Term (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Monday night will start out dry under the influence of the upper level ridging. However, a shortwave and trailing front will begin to approach the region early Tuesday. As this feature passes through on Tuesday it will bring a chance for showers. Will continue to carry 50% or less chance for rain with this system. Wednesday looks to be dry as we sit in between systems. By Thursday, however, low pressure system will develop across the Plains. A warm front moving north across the region will bring another chance for showers on Thursday. Friday into Friday night the lower pressure system will move from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. Friday we look to be solidly in the warm sector of this system with dewpoints rising into the mid 50s and high temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Soundings show an impressive wind field aloft and 500-1000J/kg CAPE. Some strong storms could certainly be possible with this system. Given how far out it is, a lot could change, but it does bear watching this week. Behind the cold front, high pressure will build in Saturday bringing dry weather. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the work week topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s each day. Lows will generally be in the mid 50s, warmer than the normal highs for this time of year. We will see a sharp cool down on Saturday behind the front with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .Aviation (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 607 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Low cloudiness and fog will be the main aviation issues at the terminals early in the forecast period. Ceilings are expected to run in the IFR range at the terminals this morning with mainly MVFR vsbys. IFR vsbys will be likely at the beginning of the period at KBWG. Conditions will slowly improve at the terminals by late morning with some clearing developing in the afternoon hours. KBWG and KSDF look to mix out later this afternoon with perhaps low clouds hanging on slightly longer over at KLEX. Winds today will be light and variable. Outlook for tonight, VFR conditions are expected. However, latest 19/06Z guidance suggests that fog may become an issue early Monday morning at all the terminal sites. && .Climate... Issued at 303 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2016 Record temperatures for the next few days. Louisville: Fri. Feb. 17 record high: Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 56 (1882) Sun. Feb. 19 record high: 74 (1939) Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994) Mon. Feb. 20 record high: 76 (2016) Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878) Tue. Feb. 21 record high: 70 (1930*) Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922) Wed. Feb. 22 record high: 71 (1992*) Lexington: Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 50 (1971*) Sun. Feb. 19 record high: 75 (1939) Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 54 (1994) Mon. Feb. 20 record high: 72 (2016*) Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997) Tue. Feb. 21 record high: 71 (1874) Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922) Wed. Feb. 22 record high: 70 (1922) Bowling Green: Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 53 (1994*) Sun. Feb. 19 record high: 73 (1994*) Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994) Mon. Feb. 20 record high: 75 (2014*) Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897) Tue. Feb. 21 record high: 75 (1930*) Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*) Wed. Feb. 22 record high: 74 (1922) Frankfort: Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 51 (1939) Sun. Feb. 19 record high: 76 (1939) Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949) Mon. Feb. 20 record high: 73 (2016) Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906) Tue. Feb. 21 record high: 72 (1997) Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*) Wed. Feb. 22 record high: 72 (1922) * most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as well && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........ZT Short Term.....EER Long Term......EER Aviation.......MJ Climate........EER  FXUS63 KLMK 201625 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1225 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 ...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions... .Forecast Update... Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The MCS located over the lower Great Lakes has continued to weaken. With lower cloud tops and thinning cloud thicknesses, ambient temperatures are expected to continue to rise into the mid to upper 90s, peaking out around 21Z. The trailing band of showers should continue to deteriorate by mid afternoon, leaving the chance of rain for the mid afternoon to be very small. Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 After an early look at this morning's guidance and the expected temperatures and heat indices for Friday, there is enough confidence to go with a Heat Advisory for areas mainly along and west of I-65 across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Peak heat indices will range from 105 to 108 during the afternoon and early evening hours and the greatest threat will be found in urbanized areas such as Louisville metro. Confidence to continue the advisory through Saturday isn't high enough yet so will continue to look at the latest guidance this morning. As far as today goes, convective debris clouds associated with a decaying MCS over the lower Great Lakes will dive southeast through the lower Ohio Valley. This may hold high temperatures down a few degrees from the current forecast, but if clouds do thin or don't make it all the way through central Kentucky, then temperatures should easily climb into the 90s based on the latest guidance. For now, will maintain current forecast but later updates may need to adjust this as well. && .Short Term (Now through Friday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Upper ridging centered over the southern Plains continues to build into the Ohio Valley, and will match or exceed the hottest temps of any of the last few summers. Main challenge is when and where Heat Advisory thresholds may be breached. Not too concerned about convection with 700mb temps at 11-12C to keep a lid on things, but Thursday night convection to our north could push an outflow boundary into the Ohio Valley to focus isolated storms along/north of Interstate 64 on Fri. Temps finally managed to overachieve on Wednesday, and both 850mb temp and 1000-850mb thickness progs suggest Thursday could run 3-4 degrees warmer. That puts most of the area in the lower 90s, with mid 90s possible across parts of south-central Kentucky and upper 90s in urban Louisville. Dewpoint forecast is toned down slightly from most guidance given how the boundary layer mixed out Wednesday, but is still enough to push max heat index values to 101-104 degrees west of I-65. Heat wave will peak on Friday as the upper ridging is the strongest. Temps may be only a degree or two warmer, but dewpoints could rise into the mid 70s, and that would push the heat index solidly into advisory territory, especially west of I-65. However, in coordination with surrounding offices, will hold off on any headlines for at least one more forecast cycle as it remains a lower- confidence dewpoint forecast. Will continue to highlight the heat and humidity via Special Weather Statements and web/social media avenues. .Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Upper ridging starts to break down on Saturday, allowing for a bit more cloud cover and isolated showers and storms, especially east of Interstate 65. Temps look a couple degrees cooler than Friday, but heat indices will still top 100 degrees across most of the forecast area. By Sunday a respectable upper trof swings through the Great Lakes and pushes a cold front slowly into the Ohio Valley. Expect scattered showers and storms Sunday into Monday, but weakly sheared environment doesn't support much organization. Canadian surface high settles into the Great Lakes for Tue-Wed, knocking our temps below climo and dewpoints into the lower 60s, providing a respite from the oppressive heat and humidity. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Quiet aviation weather today, predominantly VFR with scattered- broken high clouds. Expect clouds to decrease this evening with perhaps a small chance at light, brief br at BWG/LEX tomorrow morning. Westerly winds will remain under 7 kts today backing to the SSW late tonight into tomorrow. A chance for isld convection may return to LEX/SDF tomorrow afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for INZ076>078-083-084-089>092. KY...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074. && $$ Update...ZT/Wooton Short Term........RAS Long Term.........RAS Aviation...AMS  FXUS63 KLMK 021727 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 127 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1152 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Well...pesky showers continue along the TN border with llvl clouds holding on firm. Have small pops down south today while NE sfc winds of 7 to 12 mph are keeping CAA going and MVFR ST/SC clouds with cloud depth based on PIREPS of 1500 feet. I've lowered temps 1-2 degrees, but would not be surprised some glimpses of late day sunshine with higher sun angle working on the ST deck. Going to reduce pops before 00z tonight as warm front is too far south to have precip up to Ohio river before 00z today. Main show is Tuesday, gusty daytime winds, possible isolated late day supercells and QLCS for the evening. Bust for sure. && .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 02 2018 ...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening... ...Very warm and windy Tuesday Afternoon.... Well...today atmospere is dealing with ene to nely winds and llvl backing winds keeping low cloud deck in. Temps are fighting CAA and ceilings have climbed from 800 ft when day shift began to 1600 ft at SDF at 1 pm. PIPEPS have revealed a 1100 ft cloud thickness. Expect late day high in 48 to 53 range at most spots. Boundary along the TN state line will bring isol to sct pops late afternoon before beginning to lift with llvl jet response late on this evening. A fast-moving mid-level wave will quickly move off to the east this morning and take its deeper moisture with it. An east-west band of light to moderate showers was located right over central Kentucky early this morning. This is associated with the 850 mb front. Frontogenetical forcing will subside between now and 13z, and the showers will gradually diminish as they slide southeast. Surface high pressure was centered over Illinois this morning, and that feature is forecast to move east over IN/OH today. As lee cyclogenesis occurs with an increasing LLJ over the southern Plains, central KY/southern IN will see a very brief period of dry weather through late afternoon/early evening. With plenty of clouds and an easterly sfc wind, highs will likely range through the 50s. Warmer return flow and moisture transport do increase this evening and overnight. This evening, some scattered showers may start to work in from the WSW. Toward midnight and later, MUCAPE increases above 500 J/kg thanks to steepening mid-level lapse rates. Convective activity is likely to increase on the nose of a 45-50 kt LLJ after midnight, mainly north of the Western Kentucky/Bluegrass parkways. So scattered thunderstorms look most likely across the western/northern CWA during the early morning hours. By sunrise, the bulk of the convection should be pushing into central Indiana. This will place the forecast area within the warm sector on Tuesday, with precip coverage diminishing. Tuesday will be a very warm and windy day ahead of a strong low pressure system. Wind Advisory criteria could be met on Tuesday ahead of the front. Temperatures will soar well into the 70s. Tuesday into Tuesday evening, an upper level trough will move across the central Plains into the Midwest. A surface low is forecast to track through Illinois and northern Indiana, dragging a strong cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday evening. Confidence is increasing in severe weather late Tuesday afternoon through the evening hours. The latest model forecasts are more aggressive with mixed-layer instability in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Both the GFS and NAM pull a fair amount of dry air into the mid and even low levels by 18z, such that the low-level moisture/capping inversion is erased. At Louisville for instance, MLCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg by 18z, perhaps falling back into the 500-1000 J/kg range just ahead of the front. 0-6 km shear is around 50 kts, with up to 40 kts in the lowest 1 km at 00z Tuesday evening. Effective SRH also increases to around 300 m2/s2. This is likely to be a strong to severe QLCS with damaging winds as the main threat. A few embedded tornadoes will also be possible, particularly with bowing segments. The strong shear is mostly unidirectional, but sufficient for supercellular development should some cells initiate ahead of the main line. We encourage folks to review their severe weather safety plan today. Check the batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio. Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Convection tonight through Tuesday night may also result in some flooding issues given recent rainfall and current soil moisture levels. && .Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 02 2018 ...Freezing Temperatures Likely Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning... Strong surface high builds in quickly behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will crash into the 35-40 degree range by daybreak Wednesday. Wednesday looks breezy and chilly with clearing skies. For agricultural interests, sub-freezing temperatures are likely Wednesday night. The current forecast features Thursday morning lows in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. The sheltered valleys could dip into the mid 20s. Skies will stay mostly clear and surface high pressure builds directly over the region. A couple of weather systems could bring additional precipitation to the region Friday into Saturday. Confidence in this portion of the forecast remains quite low. But some light precipitation looks possible on Friday as a cold front works through the area. There is somewhat of a better chance for precip Friday night, and it could be in the form of snow. However, there is just not good model agreement on how to handle the Friday cold front as it pushes south of Kentucky. Some models have hinted at another low developing and tracking east along the boundary, with a band of snow on the north side of the residual boundary. However, the N-S placement has varied widely, so will feature lower PoPs for now and blended temperatures. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Surface high pressure centered over NW OH at midday is not enough to keep the OH Valley clear of low end MVFR and even still some IFR stratus. Some breaks and thin spots in the overcast showing up on visible satellite imagery, but these will be few and far between during the remainder of the daylight hours. As the surface and high moves east, southerly winds will return to the area, but with a temperature inversion and a low-level jet setting up, LLWS will be a concern from around 03/06Z - 03/15Z. Adding to this issue is the possibility of thunderstorms for HNB, SDF, and LEX. Later in the period, as a warm front pushes into the region, after the inversion mixes out, surface winds will gust over 30kts, and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread, especially during the SDF planning period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...JDG Short Term...EBW Long Term...EBW Aviation...JBS