FXUS63 KLBF 082011 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 311 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013 FAIRLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW ACROSS ONTARIO...INCLUDING UPPER LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT PV MAX. FURTHER SOUTH...WEAK PV ANOMALIES COMING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGE HELPING TO GENERATE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM HAS A TROPICAL CONNECTION...HENCE THE HIGH RAIN AMOUNTS. CLOSER TO HOME...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK SHEAR KEEPING STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013 A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND WOULD EXPECTED ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND INSTABILITY ONLY MARGINAL...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...SOME SMALL HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST CORES INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY LATE EVENING...WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGHS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013 FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS AS TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL END UP WHICH IS TYPICAL IN WEAKLY FORCED SCENARIOS. FRONT POSITION IS CRUCIAL AS MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WOULD ALLOW SUFFICENT INSTABILITY ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAXIMIZE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. KVTN FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH /GREATER THAN 10K FT/ BY FRIDAY NIGHT...PAIRED WITH A TALL AND NARROW CAPE PROFILE WHICH WOULD POINT TO WARM RAIN POTENTIAL AND LITTLE CHC FOR SEVERE HAIL. CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE NOT REALLY CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE SCALE ORGANIZATION BUT THAT MAY ALSO BE INFLUENCED STORM INTERACTION. KEPT HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN POLAR LOW. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE POLAR LOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS SLIDING THE LOW SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WHILE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...THOUGH GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ARE MORE FRAGMENTED WITH THE SYSTEM. IN THE MID RANGE...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SAT AND SUNDAY...UPPER PV ANOMALY TRACK /SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM/ ALSO BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. IN GENERAL THE BUILDING HEIGHT PATTERN WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...HOWEVER THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FRONTAL POSITION WILL ALLOW THE INCREASING UPPER FORCING PROVIDED BY THE SERIES OF PV ANOMALIES...ALBEIT WEAK...TO LOCALLY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG THE FRONT...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. THE MEAN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL ALSO BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE FRONT RANGE WHICH ALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO THE MAIN AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS WELL AS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE CLOSE TO THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE. MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE DIURNAL HIGH PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET SAT AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE OVERALL EXTENT OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY. HIGHEST POPS PLACED IN THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BASED ON THIS REASONING...AND ALSO BECAUSE THIS SCENARIO HAS PLAYED OUT SEVERAL TIMES THIS SUMMER. BETTER CAPE/SHEAR BALANCE SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE EASTERN PAC LOW LIFTS NORTH UNDER DEVELOPING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THIS ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA PLUNGES SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY REGION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RETAIN THE FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL HIGHER THETA-E AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE MEANDERING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALSO RETAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WHILE ALSO COOLING TEMPS BACK TO 3-5 DEGREES BELOW AVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU AUG 8 2013 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT EITHER KVTN OR KLBF. ACTIVITY SHOULD END COMPLETELY FOR ALL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARAIBLE AT 5 TO 10 KTS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JWS SHORT TERM...TAYLOR LONG TERM...JWS AVIATION...TAYLOR  FXUS63 KLBF 170840 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 340 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 AT 07Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT FROM A LOW IN NORTHEAST ALBERTA ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF MONTANA...WYOMING AND COLORADO. THERE WAS ALSO A TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 AN EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION ACROSS NEBRASKA INDICATES SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. IT ALSO SHOWS SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH WEAK AGEOSTROPHIC UPWARD MOTION OVER THOSE AREAS. THE RESULT IS THAT LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD...THINGS DRY OUT...TEMPERATURES WARM AND CLOUDINESS DECREASES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A FAIRLY SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH CLOUDINESS KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE EAST. LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE CLEARED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS ANY ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WOULD FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER CHANNELS. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE CHANNEL FROM DEUEL COUNTY EAST THROUGH LINCOLN COUNTY. STARTING OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES /WEDNESDAY/ ONTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THEN LIFTING THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES /THURSDAY MORNING/. ALONG WITH THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE/S BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE...AS THE MODELS ALL STEER A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE PROBLEMATIC. THE NAM IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. THE SLOWER GFS ALLOWS A GREATER AND MORE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA...THE NAM IS QUICKER TO SHUNT THE MOISTURE EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS QPF IS FOCUSED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE EUROPEAN APPEARS TO BE A COMPRISE OF THE TWO. GIVEN THE BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND THE FACT THAT EACH MODEL SOLUTION HAS SHOWN TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE WITH EACH RESPECTIVE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WILL EMPLOY A GENERAL BLEND OF THE THREE FOR PRECIPITATION AND QPF FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BLEND ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER AND POTENTIALLY GREATER COVERAGE OF CHANCES ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.. NOTE THAT ALL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AVAILABLE WITHIN A 25-35KT 0-6KM SHEAR REGIME. THE GFS REMAINS CAPPED...THE NAM ERODES ALL CIN AFTER 21Z. BOTH HOWEVER SUGGEST LACKING LOW LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THUS A FEW PULSE TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WIND WOULD BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ASSUMING UPDRAFTS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE WARM DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HELP LIMIT QPF IF STORMS WERE TO FIRE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WERE TO BE FAVORED...THEN PWATS INCREASE NEAR 1.25" ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...AN 1.25" WOULD APPROACH THE TWO STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN...LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A CONCERN WITH THE LATER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT OVERALL QPF WOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS LESS THAN 8000 FEET AND STORM MOTION WOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH. BEYOND THURSDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES AND WARMS AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER THE PLAINS. THE NEXT APPRECIABLE SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES AIM ON THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED...HIGHS WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN ADVANCE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON WEDNESDAY...AND WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 25C FOR MOST PLACES...WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SEASONAL HIGHS OF THE MID 70S ANTICIPATED. THEREAFTER...THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY MODERATES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOTE THE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WOULD ALLOW FOR COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING...MID TO UPPER 40S WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL SANDHILLS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 200 TO 600 FT AGL AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...AND AROUND 800 FT AGL AT THE KVTN TERMINAL. VISBYS MAY DROP DOWN TO 1SM FROM 11Z TO 15Z TUESDAY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL...WHILE VISBYS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE 6SM AT THE KVTN TERMINAL OVERNIGHT INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. CIGS WILL LIFT BY LATE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 LOOKING UPSTREAM OF NORTH PLATTE AND ROSCOE...THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT MAJOR FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR AT ROSCOE AND AT LEAST MODERATE FLOODING ON THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE. AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH PLATTE NEAR BRADY...MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER STAGE AT CROOK COLORADO IS STILL SHOWING A FAIRLY STEEP RISE. THE LEVELS AT JULESBURG COLORADO AND ROSCOE NEBRASKA HAVE NOT STARTED RISING YET...THOUGH THE EVENING FORECAST WOULD INDICATE THAT THE RISE WILL BEGIN AT JULESBURG SOON. CERTAIN UNCERTAINTIES SUCH AS THE AMOUNT OF ATTENUATION AND THE EFFECTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT THE HEADWATERS CONTINUE. THESE PARAMETERS COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE IMPACT... SEVERITY AND DURATION OF THE FLOODING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER SHORT TERM...SPRINGER LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CLB HYDROLOGY...SPRINGER  FXUS63 KLBF 172016 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 316 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LEESIDE TROUGH ALONG THE HIGHS PLAINS...A AREA OF STRATUS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED EAST TODAY...TO NEAR A SPRINGVIEW THROUGH NORTH PLATTE LINE AS OF 3 PM CDT. THE PANHANDLE HAD STRONG HEATING WITH CHADRON 91 AND ALLIANCE 88. STRATUS HOLDING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT |316 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST H85 LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WELL MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG AND LOWS QUITE MILD...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS ABOUT VALENTINE TO OGALLALA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARRIVES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM...WITH MANY AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 90S. IT APPEARS THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE NAM REMAINS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER. THE SLOWER GFS ALLOWS A GREATER AND MORE DIRECT MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA...THE NAM IS QUICKER TO SHUNT THE MOISTURE EAST. WILL EMPLOY A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR QPF FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NEAR A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS EAST OF A CODY THROUGH OSHKOSH LINE. UP TO 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE AVAILABLE WITH 25-35KT 0-6KM SHEAR. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS SUPPORTIVE OVERNIGHT. IF THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WERE TO BE FAVORED...THEN PWATS INCREASE NEAR 1.25" ALONG THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH THE GFS FORECAST OF 1.25 INCHES OF PWAT...CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THAT IS UP TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THUS LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE A CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT OVERALL QPF WOULD REMAIN LESS THAN A HALF OF AN INCH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS LESS THAN 8000 FEET AND STORM MOTION WOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. EXPECTED BREEZY NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH DUE TO 3-5MB PRESSURE RISES IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH H85 WINDS OF 20-35KT. WINDS TO QUICKLY DECOUPLE LATE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING WILL OCCUR AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST. DRY. STILL SEASONABLE FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S...THEN WARMING TO THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST..THEN AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND A FRONT IN THE MID 70S. STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE EAST WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REGARDING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 STRATUS AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KVTN TO KOGA TO KIML. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST OF THIS LINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE...BUT BY THIS EVENING SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR. SFC WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 FLOOD WATERS FROM COLORADO CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER CHANNEL TOWARDS WESTERN NEBRASKA. CURRENTLY...THE HIGHEST FLOWS ARE INTO WESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER AS WELL AS THE PLATTE RIVER IN THE NORTH PLATTE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...HOWEVER THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW HIGH THE RIVER WILL GET AS THE MAXIMUM FLOWS MOVE THROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM HOW MUCH ATTENUATION THERE WILL BE BETWEEN THE BALZAC AND JULESBURG GAGING SITES. HISTORY SHOWS THAT FLOWS DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THESE SITES...HOWEVER THERE ARE VERY FEW EVENTS TO COMPARE TO. ALSO...AS THE RIVER HAS BEEN LOW FOR SOME TIME...QUITE A BIT OF VEGETATION IN THE RIVER BED WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE FLOWS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY. AS THE WATER MOVES INTO NEBRASKA...WATER MAY BE DIVERTED INTO IRRIGATION CANALS...WHICH WILL FURTHER IMPACT THE FORECAST BY REDUCING FLOWS DOWNSTREAM. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SOUTH PLATTE CONFLUENCE WITH THE NORTH PLATTE...DUE TO HOW THE FLOWS HAVE SLIGHTLY LESSENED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE FURTHER CHANGES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES BECOME MORE CLEAR. SO...THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN THE RIVER SHOULD BE URGED TO WATCH THE FORECASTS CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERG SHORT TERM...TAYLOR LONG TERM...ROBERG AVIATION...TAYLOR HYDROLOGY...BROOKS  FXUS63 KLBF 140512 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1112 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015 SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CONUS. A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE TWO...STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THERE IS A WIND SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS HELD TEMPS IN THE 20S ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ARE NEARING 30 ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. A FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS SHOWING UP ACROSS NE COLORADO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015 TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SW NEB...THEN TEMPERATURES. THE TROUGH/WIND SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS ARE SATURATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS SW NEB THIS EVENING. ALSO SHOWING A BRIEF WINDOW OF POSITIVE OMEGA MOVING OVER THE AREA. CLOUD DEPTH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE ONLY -5C...HOWEVER A COOLER WEDGE SHOULD BRING THE MID CLOUD LAYER TO AROUND -8C. WHILE SUPER COOLED DROPS INITIALLY...AS THEY FALL INTO THE COLDEST LAYER...FREEZING TO MORE SNOW GRAINS IS EXPECTED. IF MODELS ARE TOO COOL WITH THIS LAYER...PRECIP WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE SATURATION LAYER IS SHALLOW WHICH WILL GO ALONG WITH STRONG BUT NARROW AND SHORT LIVED LIFT...EXPECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW GRAINS TO BE FAVORED. MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I80...AND FORECAST WILL FOLLOW. SEEING THE RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NE COLORADO DEVELOPING...GROWING CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THE FLURRIES. LIMITED DURATION ANTICIPATED AND FORECASTED WORDING WILL BE SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH LOCALLY UP TO A DUSTING POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY PUSHES EAST AND CLEARING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BY MIDNIGHT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO EXIT TO THE EAST AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP. LOWS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH SEVERAL FAVORED LOCATIONS INTO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WARM UP CONTINUES TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWN SLOPING WESTERLY WINDS TO HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 30S. THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE AND A FEW LOCATIONS COULD PUSH 40...ALTHOUGH WENT CLOSER TO WARMEST MAV GUIDANCE AS A START AS STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER TO MELT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015 UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RESEMBLING A MORE ZONAL TYPE FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW A PACIFIC AIRMASS TO SURGE EAST...DISPLACING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT HAS ENTRENCHED MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS FOR DAYS/WEEKS. A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL AID IN WARMING THE PACIFIC AIRMASS AS IT MOVES EAST ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND HIGHS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 50 DEGREES BY FRIDAY IN AREAS. SNOWPACK DOES REMAIN...SO WILL BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WARM WEATHER PATTERN. ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE AREA...BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS PACIFIC IN NATURE BEHIND THE FRONT...SO STILL MILD CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. WIND COULD BECOME AN ISSUE THROUGH...AS H850 MB WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KTS OR SO DURING THE DAY. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE EAST...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMING DOWNSLOPE PACIFIC AIR TO PUSH EAST. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER PATTERN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ONCE AGAIN...WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR POISED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. FORTUNATELY...THIS AIRMASS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS COLD AS THE AIRMASSES EXPERIENCED THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2015 ANOTHER BAND OF CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 1500-2500 FEET AGL WILL COME OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT THE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF A VTN-BBW LINE. WITH VTN ON THE EDGE...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF VTN SO A TEMPO CONDITION WILL COVER THAT. THE LATEST RAPID UPDATE PROJECTION INDICATES CEILINGS NEAR 1000 FEET AGL EAST OF VTN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFFECTING MAINLY ANW...ONL...BUB AND BBW. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MASEK SHORT TERM...MASEK LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...SPRINGER  FXUS63 KLBF 042107 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 407 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID-LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE 04.12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION WELL...AND THUS WAS CONSIDERED FOR THE POP FORECAST OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...BESIDES OFF AND ON SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE GREATEST CHANCES OF POPS OVERNIGHT COME DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...THEN THE ACTIVITY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH 15Z. AT THIS POINT WILL GENERALLY KEEP CHANCES AT 50% OR LESS OVERNIGHT. ONLY A WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IS SHOWN IN REGIONAL PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT...SO AT MOST A FEW CG STRIKES WOULD BE ANTICIPATED. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH EARLY TUESDAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING SUGGESTING THE ARRIVAL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DIFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A LEAD CENTRAL ROCKIES SHORTWAVE. THE MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT BULK SHEAR INDICES ARE LESS THAN OPTIMAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM ROTATION. THUS WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE OVERLOOKED. THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE INSTABILITY IS SPREAD OVER A LARGE DISTANCE OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND GIVEN THAT PWATS ARE SHOWN TO INCREASE TO VALUES OF ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED UNDER ANY CONVECTIVE STORM. THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BEYOND 21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE ABOVE 6K FEET. THE INHERITED FORECAST INCLUDED LIKELY POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH AT THIS POINT THERE/S NO REASON TO DEVIATE GIVEN THE SITUATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IF THE SUN IS ABLE TO PEEK OUT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN BY FRIDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED PV ANOMALY WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS LEAD PV ANOMALY WILL HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST LIFT SHIFTS NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SOME LIFT PRESENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PV ANOMALY WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS CLOUD COVER. THE RESULT WOULD BE LIMITED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR A TRIPLE POINT ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WHERE LESS LOW CLOUD COVER AND BETTER HEATING WILL OCCUR. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. STILL ON TRACK FOR A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ECMWF AND GEFS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CLOSED LOW TRACKING SLOWLY ACROSS COLORADO AND THEN TURN NORTHEAST AND CROSS NEBRASKA. VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RAIN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GEFS AND ECMWF NOW LINGER THE SYSTEM INTO SUNDAY...SO WILL RAISE POPS FOR THAT DAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015 FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND/OR LOWER CEILINGS REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED RECENTLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. THE BASIC IDEA IS THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OR STORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL FORM AND SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. SHORT FUSED UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THIS FORECAST CYCLE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JACOBS LONG TERM...TAYLOR AVIATION...JACOBS  FXUS63 KLBF 040838 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS AFTN...20-30 PERCENT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL QPF. BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE. THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS. EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES OFF BAJA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6 /TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. USING A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS...THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT...BY 07Z...THE STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL MERGE BY 08Z NEAR A LXN-MHN-OGA LINE. THE RAPID REFRESH MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH LATER TIME FOR THE MERGER...SOMETIME 10Z OR LATER. THE TIMING CAN BE TIED DOWN TO ABOUT A FOUR-HOUR PERIOD FROM 07Z TO 11Z. FOR THE TIME BEING...WE WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND LEAN TOWARD AN EARLIER TIME AND SET 08Z FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT LBF. WITH EASTERLY WIND IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS...STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z WITH 1000-1500 FEET CEILINGS LIKELY AND A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET. THE PROBABILITY OF CEILING BELOW 1000 FEET IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECASTS FOR VTN AND LBF FOR THE TIME BEING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...SPRINGER  FXUS63 KLBF 041756 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1256 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALL MODELS SHOW A 300MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH COLO THIS MORNING. DONT BOTHER LOOKING BELOW THAT LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE VACANT AT 500MB. THUS IT APPEARS SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED TSTMS. DEPENDING ON HOW THE LONG HEAVY CONVECTION LASTS ACROSS SERN NEB THIS MORNING COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP MODEL MOVES THIS CONVECTION INTO MISSOURI BY 15Z WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RESUME ACROSS NCNTL NEB WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. STILL THE BEST INSTABILITY...STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST K INDICES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SRN NEB WHERE AN H850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED. THE FRONT WILL TRY AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB. THE FCST CARRIES A 20 TO 50 POP WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY AND ACROSS SWRN NEB TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME CLEARING SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BUILD VERY SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND GEM REG MODELS ARE WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. SPC OUTLOOKS THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. ELSEWHERE ITS 5 PERCENT. A 60KT 300MB SPEED MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TODAY. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 21Z. THE RAP SHOWS 3000J/KG MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 40KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. BY 20Z THE CAP IS GONE HOWEVER SO IS THE FORCING. THE FORCING IS NORTH OF THIS AREA SO A LOWER POPS IS IN PLACE SOUTH THIS AFTN...20-30 PERCENT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ANDRES APPEAR TO STILL BE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION...AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME NEARLY EVERY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT...AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO KEY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND THE PASSAGE OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN IDEAL AT THIS POINT...BOTH CONCERNING TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY POTENTIAL QPF. BEGINNING LATE WEEK...A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL EXIST AND CONTINUE INITIALLY INTO COMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...RIDGING ATOP THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE DOES UNDERGO A BREAKDOWN /FLATTENING/ AS A NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHICH PROVIDES FOR A GREATER DIRECT INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. A DISTURBANCE IS SUGGESTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE FOR A SOLID OPPORTUNITY OF QPF. THE MODELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOW A FAIRLY ROBUST MCS TRAVERSE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND THE POP FORECAST WAS TRENDED UPWARD INTO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE. THE RIDGE FLATTENS FURTHER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON CONVECTION INITIATING OFF WARM FRONT/SUBTLE DISTURBANCES...CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS THEN SHEAR THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE LOW RE-FOCUSING OFF THE SOCAL COAST...YET THERE REMAINS A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AS A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE REGION...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES CROSS THROUGH THE FLOW. BY MID WEEK...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL DEVELOP LEADING TO DRYING CONDITIONS. EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THE GREATER CONCERN COMES WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL....ESPECIALLY TRUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF AN 1.75" AT KLBF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO NEAR 3000 METERS. THE MOISTURE IS A COMBINATION OF SOLID RETURN FROM THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF ANDRES OFF BAJA. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN...HOWEVER BY DAY 6 /TUESDAY/...TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2015 NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE FOCUSES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE EVENING. STORMS FIRED JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF NORTH PLATTE OVER THE PAST HOUR AND ARE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CURRENT TERMINAL AREA FORECAST DOES NOT MENTION MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH MODELS GREATLY VARYING LOCATIONS. THUS FELT IT WILL BE BETTER TO AMEND ONCE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. DO HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING AND INCLUDED IN TAF. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...MASEK  FXUS63 KLBF 080835 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 335 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CNTL ROCKIES TODAY KEEPS WINDS WEST AND NORTHWEST. WARM AIR WILL BUILD IN ALOFT SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. BY LATE AFTN H700MB RISE INTO THE HIGH SINGLE DIGITS AND MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH 700 MB SUPPORTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CANADA AND MOVE INTO MANITOBA BY MORNING. THIS SETS UP SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MORNING. DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S. GUIDANCE CAME IN REALLY WARM WITH THE 08.00Z RUN...SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE CWA. WILL DISCOUNT THOSE WARM READINGS FOR NOW AS BL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS...WILL CAP THE FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE WARM READINGS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL...EFFECTIVELY RECYCLING MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR AND DRAWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TD/S BACK ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL STALL ATOP THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE MODEL OF CHOICE...WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A GFS/NAM COMBO TARGETS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WORKS ON THE STALLING BOUNDARY. THE EC HAS SAME THE SAME TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT FOCUSES HIGHER OPPORTUNITIES FURTHER NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A GREATER INFLUENCE FROM NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INITIALLY WHEN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW TARGETS A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH....WITH AN MCS TO FOLLOW DURING THE EVENING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LLJ. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND...BUT AT THIS POINT HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE GREATEST CONCERN AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 10K FEET AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.60" ATOP THE SANDHILLS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN THE POSSIBLE MCS ROLLS THROUGH. POPS CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS THE REGION FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH/S/ AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN THE REGION. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT IS SHOWN TO SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING COOL NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS HIGHS FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND FALL GENERALLY TO VALUES THAT ARE BELOW AVERAGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015 EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT UNDER 10 KTS...SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AT UNDER 10 KTS MONDAY EVENING. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CLB  FXUS63 KLBF 090835 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 SURFACE DATA INDICATED A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND ONE ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING. THE SURFACE WIND FIELD SHOWED NO CONVERGENCE...SO NO LIFT WAS INDICATED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THOUGH...INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS BUT WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF 7-9C...THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE ALTOCUMULUS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WITH NO FRONT IN THE AREA...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOT WEATHER TODAY IS THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST TODAY. WITH AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATING THE ROCKIES AND WEST...LITTLE CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. NEAR THE SURFACE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING THE PLAINS A DOSE OF THE HOT WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN THE RULE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 AN MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN THE BREAKDOWN PHASE ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK UPPER ENERGY TRANSLATES EAST ATOP THE PLAINS. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGH WILL ENSUE AS THE DISTURBANCE ADVANCES EAST. EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS LOW WILL BE A WARM FRONT WHICH ARCS NORTHEAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE MODELS INITIATE CONVECTION OFF THE LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...BUT INDICATE SOME UPSCALE GROWTH TO A MCS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHEN THE LLJ RAMPS UP AND PWATS INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH AND A HALF AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SHOWN BY BUFKIT EXCEED 10000 FT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW PULLS A FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE/VORT MAX DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO TARGET THE HIGH PROBABILITIES TO OUR WEST AND EAST. EAST OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES RELUCTANTLY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. AFTER A WARM START TO THE EXTENDED PERIODS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR...OR POSSIBLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS...OWING MAINLY TO CLOUDS...EASTERLY FLOW...AND SOME MOISTURE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 EXPECT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST OR WEST AT UNDER 10 KTS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER SHORT TERM...SPRINGER LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CLB  FXUS63 KLBF 100846 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 346 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 HAND ANALYSIS OF THE REGIONAL 07Z MSL DATA REVEALED A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...THROUGH NORTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 60 OR HIGHER WERE JUST EAST OF OF NORTH PLATTE AND NORTH PAST ONEILL. THERE WAS ALSO A TROUGH INDICATED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING TO NORTHEAST COLORADO. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER (BOTH GOES AND AMSU) SHOWED A PLUME 25MM OR HIGHER OVER ABOUT THE SAME AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE HIGH PLAINS TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY EXCEEDING 2500J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT...LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE WIND PROFILES COULD FAVOR RIGHT MOVING SUPER CELLS AFTER 21Z. BY 03Z...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED AN INCH WITH NEARLY TWO INCHES IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. THERE IS EVEN A THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF AN AINSWORTH-BROKEN BOW LINE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE LONG TERM PERIODS WILL BE HEAVY AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. CONVECTION FROM A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT MCS WILL BE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA STARTING OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY AGREES THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH/EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WEAK UPPER FORCING AND THE POTENTIAL OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/WEAK SYNOPTIC COOL FRONT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME...SO SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDER WOULD BE ANTICIPATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS PWATS REMAIN SEVERAL SD ABOVE THE MEAN AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS LINGER AOA 8K FEET. THE ATMOSPHERE ATTEMPTS TO DRY WITH THE SFC FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WEAK UPSLOPE TO OUR WEST ON THE HIGH PLAINS MAY PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS...WHICH MAY SPILL INTO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT THIS POINT. THE NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVC SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND LIMIT HIGHS. IT/S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT MAXIMUM READINGS ARE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT RETREATS NORTH THIS WEEKEND AND REMAINS WITHIN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT CHANCES AT THIS POINT ARE LARGELY UNCERTAIN...WILL LEAVE THE CR_INT AS IS FOR NOW. HIGHS AND LOWS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO SATURDAY AND BEYOND...GIVE OR TAKE A FEW DEGREES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY...WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 8000 FT AGL LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 22Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL AND AFTER 00Z THURSDAY FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. VISBYS MAY BE AS LOW AS 4SM AS WELL. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER SHORT TERM...SPRINGER LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...CLB  FXUS63 KLBF 142022 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 AT 20Z...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST AND TRANSITION INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. CLOSER TO THE CWA SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW AREAS OF CU HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG REMNANT SFC BOUNDARIES THAT ARE STALLED OVER THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR REMAINS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PRECIP CHANCES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA BY LATE SATURDAY. DESPITE THE HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE AREA A DRY FORECAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF CU HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LOCALIZED ZONES OF CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A FEW WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES. LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL LIFT UNDERNEATH THE LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STIFLE THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CU AND MAKE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE VAST MAJORITY OF HI-RES MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER PAC NW TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVERNIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY THE PATTERN AS IT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. ATTENDANT SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SATURDAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. H7 TEMPS PUSH TO 15C TO 17C. MIXING DURING THE DAY SHOULD RESULT IN SFC TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH SOME SPOTS LIKELY TOPPING 100 IN PARTS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S DESPITE DEEP MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT INDICIES WILL PUSH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES AT TIMES...PRIMARILY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. POPS ENTER THE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE WEST. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. COVERAGE IN THE CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN SOUTHERN CANADA. FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BE WEAK AS THE MAIN JET STREAK ALOFT LAGS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN THE LLJ INTENSIFIES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 00Z SUNDAY AND BEYOND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL. DCAPE VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA ARE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THIS IS DUE TO STEEP LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND LARGE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC T/TD SPREADS. A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH THE BETTER VALUES NORTH OF THE CWA. BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN AS PWATS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT CLIMB IN EXCESS OF AN 1.50" AND STORM MOTIONS REMAIN SLOW. THE FRONT RELUCTANTLY SLIPS TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR STORM...POSSIBLY SEVERE...DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ONCE AGAIN...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. NOTE PWATS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING RAINFALL. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MID WEEK PROVIDING FOR HIGHER POP CHANCES. THE ENSEMBLES TODAY CAME IN WITH MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...YIELDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE TOMORROW MORNING IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. HOWEVER...INCONSISTENCIES STILL REMAIN WITHIN THE GUIDANCE SETS AND WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE IN LOCAL RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING KLBF. THUS HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF BR TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTED VISBYS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SATURDAY...BUT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BEGIN INCLUDING MVFR OR LOWER VISBYS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ005>010. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MARTIN SHORT TERM...MARTIN LONG TERM...JACOBS AVIATION...MARTIN  FXUS63 KLBF 272031 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 331 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND DRIER CONDITIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. CURIOUS HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI- STATE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING. STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST PROPAGATING MCS. AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO. IF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K FEET. THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST. HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN QUESTION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE CONVECTIVE STORMS. COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT. FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE GROWTH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25 PERCENT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 CONVECTION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION FORECAST...WE ANTICIPATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE...FORMING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN TWO FAVORED AREAS...OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN STORMS ARE SHOWN TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE OF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND IFR /OR LOWER/ VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JACOBS LONG TERM...ROBERG AVIATION...JACOBS