FXUS61 KILN 091950 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KENTUCKY HAS BEEN ADVECTING ON A NNE TRAJECTORY...BUT LARGELY PROPAGATING MORE EASTWARD...THANKS TO THE DEARTH OF INSTABILITY OVER THE ILN CWA. BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS (OBSERVED AND VIA LAPS ANALYSIS) IT APPEARS THAT MODELS WERE SLIGHTLY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...LARGELY DUE TO SOME SLIGHT OVERFORECASTING IN BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...THE THETA-E ADVECTION IS ON THE WAY...SIGNIFIED BY THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH INCREASING PWAT VALUES (FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.50" BY EVENING). WHILE RADAR TRENDS DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE POPS WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE FROM HRRR/RAP DEPICTIONS. THIS WILL START OFF VERY HIGH IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (CATEGORICAL) AND THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY (LIKELY) AS THE INITIAL BATCH OF FORCING MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA...GENERALLY THROUGH 06Z. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS BATCH...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A LULL IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMP/SKY FORECASTS OVERNIGHT...WITH RATHER MOIST AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AS THEY STAY UP IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE MID LEVELS WILL MOVE ESE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIFT...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND AN INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SUPPORT ALOFT FROM DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...ON A 25-30 KNOT LLJ. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT AND SOME DEGREE (THOUGH NOT STRONG) OF COLDER/DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA GENERALLY IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE LLJ-FORCED ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO CREATE A WET MORNING ACROSS THE ILN CWA. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT (04Z-14Z FROM W TO E). THE HIGH-RES MODELS DEPICT THE MODE AS MORE OF A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TYPE OF EVENT (WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER)...AS OPPOSED TO AN EASILY-TRACKABLE WALL OF PRECIPITATION. POPS ARE BEING HELD AT 80 PERCENT FOR NOW...THOUGH 100 POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY ONCE THE EXACT TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE WORKING ITS WAY EAST...NOT REALLY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IF THERE WILL BE ANY THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS TOMORROW...IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE DECREASING QUITE A BIT. WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS THERE WILL STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IT WOULD NOT TAKE A LOT OF SUN TO GENERATE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT...AND PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...AT NO POINT DURING THE DAY DOES THE INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE THAN A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. POPS ARE HIGHEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THEN REMAIN IN THE LIKELY AND HIGH CHANCE CATEGORIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (EARLY EVENING IN THE EAST). THE TEMP FORECAST IS GOING TO ASSUME DIURNAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT MAY NOT QUITE PLAY OUT THAT WAY...WITH THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA AND OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO THE COOL MET GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO (OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN) THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SOME OF THE RAW MODELS WERE EVEN LOWER ON TEMPS MONDAY. SKY GRIDS WERE RAISED A BIT ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RATHER THICK RH REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM...THEN THEY START TO DIFFER ON TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGHS DOMINATING THE WRN AND ERN U.S. WITH RIDGING SPREAD OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEY. ON TUESDAY...UPR LVL LOW WILL DEPART TO THE EAST WHILE A WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. A SHOWER MAY LINGER IN THE FAR EAST EARLY ON...OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CAA BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND PERHAPS MID 80S NEAR THE TRI-STATE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A DISTINCT S/WV WHICH WILL ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIVE SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...RETURN FLOW AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO PIVOT TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO OUR REGION WHILE A PSEUDO WEST TO EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH. THESE FEATURES WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY/COVERAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS S/WV ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK SFC WAVE AS THEY PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE ATMOSPHERE COULD BECOME RATHER UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY CONGEALING INTO AN MCS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE PARAMETERS ARE RIPE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4 KM. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION THESE HAZARDS IN THE EXTENDED HWO. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND RAIN DEPENDENT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE HUMID. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH COOLER WEATHER ON TAP ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PCPN ON THURSDAY SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION. DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS NW FLOW OVER THE REGION BRINGS PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES LATE IN THE DAY. WILL KEEP A LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACRS THE NW. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE BONAFIDE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING IS AN ISSUE STILL THIS FAR OUT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NOSING THROUGH KY WILL AFFECT KCVG/KLUK IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND MARK THE ONSET OF A WET PERIOD. WHILE THERE WILL BE MARKED DRY PERIODS AFTER THE ONSET OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEY WILL BECOME MORE RARE AS THE EVENING GOES ON. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL GIVE THE REGION AN ADDED SOURCE OF LIFT AS IT NEARS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE PRIMED AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE...CONTINUED MOISTURE FEED...AND INCOMING UPPER LOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OFF AND ON FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. HAVE CUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDER TOMORROW MORNING AS THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. BROAD UPWARD MOTION WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON EVEN IF THE THUNDER GOES THE WAYSIDE. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY EVENING AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS  FXUS61 KILN 101954 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 354 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUR REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPINNING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE ON AN EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGHOUT TONIGHT...NEARING NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...INSTABILITY INCREASING WITH SOME CLEARING...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALL HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT ITS FOCUS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. SINCE INSTABILITY IS ONE OF THE KEY INGREDIENTS IN SUPPORTING THESE CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH ALL ZONES EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. IF MORE RAPID CLEARING OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THEA AREA ON TUESDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY WARM DUE TO AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE CLOUD COVER TO START THE DAY...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RIDING INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA. WENT ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN ANTICIPATION OF THE RAPID WARMING ALOFT...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL SETUP BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AS DISTURBANCES ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT DUE TO TIMING. THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ELEVATED AND DRIVEN BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL JET. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE VARIOUS MODELS FORECASTS FOR THIS CONVECTION TO EVEN OCCUR...AND VARIATIONS IN BOTH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL HANDLING OF CONVECTION WITH THOSE MODELS ACTUALLY FORECASTING IT TO OCCUR. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...AM ONLY GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED TO START THE NIGHT. THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAKER CAPPING ACROSS THE NORTH. THEREFORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE IN THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NRN CWFA BY THE AFTN HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL SHIFT TO THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA WHILE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHES IN FROM THE SW...PLACING A CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE ACRS THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWFA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A PSEUDO FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE WARM FRONT MERGE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A WEAK S/WV. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING NEAR THE BOUNDARY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW VERY WARM TO HOT AIR TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CWFA ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. WILL MENTION ALL THESE THREATS IN THE HWO. MORE CONCERN ARISES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A BONAFIDE S/WV FORECAST TO DIVE SE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THERE IS SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES AMONGST THE MODELS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE S/WV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE IN WHICH DYNAMICS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AS MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO OUR NW AND PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. HOWEVER...IF A VERY LATE ARRIVAL OCCURS...THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. A LATE ARRIVAL MAY MAKE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING BEING A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT GIVEN PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 4 KM (FAVORING EFFICIENT COLLISION/COALESCENCE). WILL ALSO MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO. THE MAIN S/WV...SFC LOW AND FRONT SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. THEY SHOULD SHIFT SE AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THURSDAY AFTN...BRINGING AN END TO PCPN FROM NW TO SE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST CLOUDS BREAK AND PCPN PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS IN ERNEST...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SKIM OUR FAR NE CWFA DURING FRIDAY AFTN. THIS COULD SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER THERE DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ATTM AND HAVE JUST GONE WITH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UPR LVL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BLOSSOMING OVER KY AND SRN IN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE IN WESTERN OHIO AND BISECTING CWA AT 0Z TONIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE AXIS. CELLULAR NATURE OF THE USPTREAM CELLS IN CENTRAL IN AND SOUTHER IL LOOK TO SHOW THAT OVERNIGHT WILL SEE SOME CLEARING WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CU LEFTOVER FROM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT SOMEWHAT AND WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND THE NATURAL FALL IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS  FXUS61 KILN 261316 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 916 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BUT OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAVE REACHED A LULL IN ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WEAKENED QUICKLY AS IT MOVED EAST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF STORMS STRETCHING SOUTHEAST FROM CHICAGO IS TRYING TO WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. AS THEY DO THE STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SO ANY ACTIVITY THERE MAY NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN IOWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WOULD BRING GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS AREA MAY HAVE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF RECOVERING AND BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. THUS SEVERE THREAT WOULD SEEM GREATER IN THE TRI-STATE. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AS THAT SAME AREA WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF A MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE AROUND 4 KM. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE ESE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG (OR JUST AHEAD OF) THE PATH OF THIS SHORTWAVE. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS ALLOWED FOR THE TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW TO COME SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...ROUGHLY ALONG THE US-30 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN OHIO. WITH THESE FEATURES...FORCING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GROW SIGNIFICANTLY...IN AN AIR MASS THAT CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ON STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING TWO INCHES...AND THE GENERALLY-SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH STORMS TONIGHT. CORFIDI VECTORS OVER THE ILN CWA POINT DUE SOUTH AT 5-15 KNOTS TONIGHT...RIGHT INTO THE LLJ AND SUGGESTING SLOW PROPAGATIONS. NO TALK OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT THE HYDRO WORDING IN THE HWO WILL BE HEIGHTENED A BIT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS CERTAINLY PRESENT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAKE THIS FAR FROM A SURE-FIRE SIGNIFICANT EVENT. SHEAR -- A BAND OF STRONG WNW FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE. THIS APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER THE ILN CWA DURING THE EXPECTED TIME FRAME OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH UP TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED...BUT QUITE WEAK IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA (10-20 KNOTS). HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE PART OF THE SHEAR PROFILE IS THE AMOUNT OF TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS. AROUND THE BASE OF THE SURFACE LOW...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG AT THE SURFACE...VEERING WITH HEIGHT. IT IS EVEN CONCEIVABLE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY BACK PAST SOUTHERLY IN PLACES CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HODOGRAPHS ARE THUS RATHER CURVED...BUT OVERALL THE LENGTH IS NOT APPRECIABLE. INSTABILITY -- AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. AIR MASS RECOVERY IS PERHAPS THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. ASSUMING 1000-1500 J/KG DURING THE EVENING...THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING. AS THE BOUNDARY THAT WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT A GRADIENT IN INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND LOWEST IN THE NORTHEAST. IN SUMMARY...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO FAVOR DIURNALLY DEVELOPING STORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND POINTS WEST OF THERE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD...TRANSITIONING TO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WIND AND HAIL (ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN) SHOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW...RULING OUT A TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE UNWISE. HOWEVER...IT IS HARD TO SEE THIS SCENARIO AS FAVORING A HIGHER-END RISK...GIVEN THE CONCERNS WITH INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (AND THUS STORM ORGANIZATION). ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE THREAT (LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY OVERNIGHT)...THE GREATEST POPS ARE LAGGED SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS...FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH ONTARIO. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT HAVE CHANGED APPRECIABLY AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE LOW (THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...SO WILL TEMPS ALOFT). INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN A SIMILAR NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO. POPS FAVOR DIURNAL TIMING FOR BOTH DAYS...WHICH MAKES A DEGREE OF PROBABILISTIC SENSE...AS TIMING OUT INDIVIDUAL WAVES AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BE TOUGH TO DO THIS FAR OUT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEXT TUESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR MAY WORK IN AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION RESULT IN A COOLER THERMAL REGIME. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IT APPEARS THAT THE TAF SITES WILL HAVE A LULL IN THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A STRONGER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO OUR NW IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC LOW WILL DIG SE TOWARD OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...DYNAMICS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE TRIED TO PICK THE BEST TIME FOR THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN/IFR VSBYS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PLACE ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS AT THIS POINT WHEN NOT KNOWING WHERE THE STRONGEST CORES WILL BE. PCPN WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE USED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND WILL FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN  FXUS61 KILN 261610 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1210 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...BUT OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STILL REMAIN IN A MINIMUM OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DEVELOPMENT HAS STARTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY. SO THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED STORMS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST OUT OF ILLINOIS. CURRENT TRAJECTORY WOULD HAVE THIS IMPACTING THE TRI-STATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY IS STILL LACKING. HIGH CLOUDS SEEM TO BE THINNING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. SO WITH HEATING THERE SHOULD BE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THERE STILL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS TO FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO THIS WILL INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... BULK SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY PERSISTS THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. BUT CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE REGION EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO FOCUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS SUBSTANTIAL. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH ONTARIO. THE AIR MASS WILL NOT HAVE CHANGED APPRECIABLY AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE LOW (THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...SO WILL TEMPS ALOFT). INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA...AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY IN A SIMILAR NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO. POPS FAVOR DIURNAL TIMING FOR BOTH DAYS...WHICH MAKES A DEGREE OF PROBABILISTIC SENSE...AS TIMING OUT INDIVIDUAL WAVES AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH WILL BE TOUGH TO DO THIS FAR OUT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WENT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEXT TUESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR MAY WORK IN AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE LOW 80S ARE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION RESULT IN A COOLER THERMAL REGIME. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... IT APPEARS THAT THE TAF SITES WILL HAVE A LULL IN THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A STRONGER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE TO OUR NW IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC LOW WILL DIG SE TOWARD OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...DYNAMICS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE TRIED TO PICK THE BEST TIME FOR THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN/IFR VSBYS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PLACE ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS AT THIS POINT WHEN NOT KNOWING WHERE THE STRONGEST CORES WILL BE. PCPN WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TOWARD MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC LOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT IFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE USED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND WILL FINE TUNE THIS AS WE GET CLOSER TO TONIGHT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...HICKMAN  FXUS61 KILN 221322 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 922 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A VERY MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOW THEY EVOLVE AND WHERE THE THREAT OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX. 12Z KILN SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAS THE INGREDIENTS FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. PWATS ARE NEAR 2 INCHES...THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS OVER 4 KM...AND THE CAPE PROFILE IS A SKINNY ONE (MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH A DEEP PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE). SO...THE QUESTION WILL BE WHAT FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND WHERE WILL THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING BE. A MID LVL MESO VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. ANOTHER MESO VORTICITY IS MOVING INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION. FARTHER TO THE WEST...A SYNOPTIC SCALE S/WV WAS PUSHING INTO WESTERN INDIANA. AT THE SAME TIME...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACRS OUR NRN CWFA. CURRENT SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFTING ALONG STATIONARY FRONT. THE LONGER TERM FLOOD THREAT WILL BE FOR THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS STRONGER S/WV MOVES INTO OUR REGION AND COUPLES WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT (AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW RIPPLING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY) TO BRING THE HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO ALL BUT THE FAR NW CWFA. AS A RESULT...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT ACCORDINGLY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE 2 INCHES OR MORE PER HOUR. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS THE S/W AND ASSOCIATED FORCING PUSH E OF THE FA THIS EVENING THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM NW TO SE. FAST NW FLOW ALOFT THEN BRINGS NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY...AS A CDFNT SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH. CONVECTION MIGHT LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT THEN FINALLY IT LOOKS LIKE A DRIER AIRMASS WORKS IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HAS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. MODEL CONSENSUS IS SHOWING THAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE A AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 80S SE. READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 80S SOUTHEAST. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT TO PROVIDE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SE. SOME MODEL SOLNS EXIST REGARDING PROGRESSION OF SFC FNT. AT THIS TIME WILL FOLLOW MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN AND DRY THE REGION OUT SUNDAY WITH TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE AND PRIMARILY SEE CIGS 10KFT OR BETTER. PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS ANY MVFR BR ASSOCIATED WITH AND IN THE WAKE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE AIM ON THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SQUEEZE OUT SOME MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE LOCATED ALONG THE IN/OH BORDER AT 18Z. BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND LINGER OVER SOUTHERN OHIO THROUGH 0Z BEFORE EXITING IN THE 0-6Z TIME FRAME. AFTER THE FORCING FROM THE LOWS MOVE EAST...THERE WILL BE LITTLE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AS THE CLEARING LETS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RADIATE AND REACH THE DEWPOINTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026- 044>046-051>056-061>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ066- 073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SITES NEAR TERM...HICKMAN/SITES SHORT TERM...SITES LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...FRANKS  FXUS61 KILN 072033 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 433 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN OSCILLATE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE HRRR...NAM AND ECMWF FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. A COLD FRONT WAS POISED TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING. CONVECTION OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER THE ERN/SERN ZONES THIS AFTN SHOULD PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THAT WILL LEAVE OUR AREA IN A LULL IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH 30 AND 4O POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF WHETHER A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FORMS AND POKES INTO OUR SWRN FORECAST AREA TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE...HAVE ALLOWED POPS TO UPTICK TOWARD MORNING BUT KEPT THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND SHOULD SOME HOLES BREAK...SOME FOG AND OR STRATUS MAY FORM DUE TO HIGH RH VALUES IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAY PLACE SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. LOWS SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL BETWEEN A LARGE ANOMALOUS UPR LVL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND A MID LVL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN STATES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS SETUP WILL ONLY ALLOW AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY TO SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY FRIDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS MODELS ARE ESSENTIALLY OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. HAVE GONE WITH A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WHICH IS FORECASTING A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT. AS SUCH...THERE IS A HINT OF A FRONTAL WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAVE AND ANY UPR LVL SUPPORT FROM AN ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE OR MCV SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. HAVE HIGHEST POPS MAINLY FOR POINTS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 71 WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE PLAYING A ROLE IN TERMS OF BEST COVERAGE. LOOKS LIKE WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DOWN TICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE IN ITS WAKE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWATS OF 2 INCHES PLUS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE CLOSE TO 4 KM WHICH WOULD FAVOR COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAIN WITH UPCOMING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT/LOCAL FLOODING ISSUES IN THE HWO WITH AN EMPHASIS PLACED ACRS THE SRN CWFA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS AND PCPN...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ORIENT ITSELF ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THIS BOUNDARY WILL VERY SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIPPLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW VALUES IN THE 150 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE THERE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BOTH NUDGED QPF A TAD FURTHER SOUTH FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN THEY HAD IN EARLIER RUNS...SO OPTED TO LOWER OR TAKE OUT POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. BY MONDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY...RESULTING IN NW FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... STUBBORN STRATUS AND FOG THAT AFFECTED THE MAJORITY OF THE TAFS THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR. IT HAS LIMITED THE INSTABILITY SO FAR...BUT LATEST RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WRN TAFS...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY JUST TO THEIR E. POP UP CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH THE AFTN HOURS DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY. EXPECT A LULL BETWEEN 00-06Z...BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION AFT 06Z...ASSOCIATED WITH A CDFNT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO PUSH IN AFT 06Z. WENT WITH JUST A VCTS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR ST AND FOG LATE AFT 09Z. WENT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS...BUT SOME LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THE ST TO LINGER INTO LATE MORNING LIKE IT DID THIS MORNING. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM...KURZ AVIATION...SITES  FXUS61 KILN 082023 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 423 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WILL RELY ON THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AS HELPFUL AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...SO WILL DISCUSS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED BETWEEN DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. THIS WAVE ALONG WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...HAVE LED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING AND A MOIST AIRMASS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE TO THE NE THIS EVENING...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON AN APPARENT MCV CURRENTLY OVER SRN ILLINOIS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS MCV IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ENE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND PER MODELS...SHOULD RESULT IN AN UPTICK OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE MCV INTERACTS WITH THIS AIRMASS. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW AND WHERE WILL THE BEST FORCING OCCUR AS THE MCV TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SUBTLE LOW LEVEL JET AND THUS AN INCREASE IN 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR AS CONVECTION TRANSITIONS FROM SURFACE BASED TO ELEVATED BASED. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PWATS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4 KMS...WHICH FAVORS A COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESS. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT IS THERE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. DURING THE AFTN FORECAST PROCESS...THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATED THAT THE MCV AND LOW LEVEL JET WOULD INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE LIKELY POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT AT THE TIME THAT A FFA WAS NEED FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. LATER HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE NOW BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE MAIN FOCUS MAIN BE MORE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES TO TREND THIS WAY. OTHERWISE...WILL STICK TO THE ORIGINAL THINKING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE TOWARD MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE MCV AND SFC WAVE RIPPLE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SETTLES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT ANOTHER MCV IS UPSTREAM OF THE CURRENT MCV AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE REGION TOWARD MORNING. ATTM...HAVE ISSUED A 2 SEGMENTED FFA WITH THE NW 1/2 DROPPING OFF BY 12Z FRIDAY AS CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE FOCUSED TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE SECOND SEGMENT WILL GO UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR NW TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY POPS GIVEN TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASSING BY. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND THIS IS WHY THE 2 SEGMENT FFA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD WANE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE NRN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS AND THEN LEANED TOWARDS COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGING WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS ACTIVATED AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WORKING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARIES ACTING AS FORCING. LOOKING TOWARDS OVERNIGHT HOURS...AFT 02Z..,GETTING A WHOLE BUNCH OF DIFFERENT ANSWERS FROM THE MODELS. SYSTEM OUT OVER MO ATTM HEADS EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM WEAKENS AND SHUNTS THE SYSTEM S OF THE TAFS...KEEPING THINGS PRETTY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE 2 CMC MODELS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF BRING IT IN TOWARDS 12Z AND GIVE THE SRN TAFS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN. THE GFS MEANWHILE LIFTS SI UP RIGHT ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY FORECAST AND BROUGHT VCTS/VCSH INTO THE KCVG/KLUK AROUND 09Z. ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME REDEVELOPED THE FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN. THIS FAR OUT DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO IFR...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A LOT OF MIXING FROM PCPN. THREW A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN AFT 15Z AS HEATING OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE AGAIN AFTER ST BEGINS TO LIFT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY....THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>072. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ073-074- 077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073-074. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM... AVIATION...SITES  FXUS61 KILN 082311 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 711 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE MEANTIME...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... WILL RELY ON THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS FOR THE NEAR TERM. AS HELPFUL AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...SO WILL DISCUSS THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SLID A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING DUE TO RECENT CONVECTION AS SEEN ON MOSAIC RADAR. THIS MAY PLAY A PART IN WHERE THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION HAS SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HOWEVER...AN UPTICK IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM MCV OVER SE ILLINOIS TRAVELS EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SUBTLE LOW LEVEL JET/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A WEAKLY REFLECTED SFC WAVE MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS...IN OTHER WORDS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. BUT GIVEN OSCILLATING SOLUTIONS FROM RUN TO RUN...AM PERSISTENT AT THIS TIME TO CUT BUT THE FFA FOR THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS AREAS. SO WILL LET THIS HOLD AT THIS TIME BUT MENTION THAT BETTER COVERAGE MAY BE CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THE AIRMASS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY MOIST...PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR COLLISION/COALESCENCE PROCESSES. SO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR PERHAPS IN SLIGHTLY LESSER TIMES GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR NW TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER ON FRIDAY...THEN SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY POPS GIVEN TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND ANY POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASSING BY. AGAIN...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND THIS IS WHY THE 2 SEGMENT OF THE FFA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD WANE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES...AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE NRN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUD AND PCPN DEPENDENT BUT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NW TO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH. SO KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS AND THEN LEANED TOWARDS COOLER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGING WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER COOL AND DRY AIR MASS. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS ACTIVATED AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WORKING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BOUNDARIES ACTING AS FORCING. LOOKING TOWARDS OVERNIGHT HOURS...AFT 02Z..,GETTING A WHOLE BUNCH OF DIFFERENT ANSWERS FROM THE MODELS. SYSTEM OUT OVER MO ATTM HEADS EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENT TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE NAM WEAKENS AND SHUNTS THE SYSTEM S OF THE TAFS...KEEPING THINGS PRETTY DRY ON FRIDAY. THE 2 CMC MODELS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF BRING IT IN TOWARDS 12Z AND GIVE THE SRN TAFS THE BEST CHC OF PCPN. THE GFS MEANWHILE LIFTS SI UP RIGHT ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE MAJORITY FORECAST AND BROUGHT VCTS/VCSH INTO THE KCVG/KLUK AROUND 09Z. ALSO ABOUT THIS TIME REDEVELOPED THE FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN. THIS FAR OUT DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO IFR...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET A LOT OF MIXING FROM PCPN. THREW A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN AFT 15Z AS HEATING OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO INITIATE AGAIN AFTER ST BEGINS TO LIFT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY....THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OHZ042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>072. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR OHZ073-074- 077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059- 066-073-074. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR INZ075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN NEAR TERM...HICKMAN SHORT TERM...HICKMAN LONG TERM... AVIATION...SITES  FXUS61 KILN 051409 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1009 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE TRAVELS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT WEST CENTRAL OHIO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THERE. WILL SEE A BREAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION TRAVELS NORTHEAST. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN A VERY HUMID AIRMASS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER/MEAN RH VALUES...FAVORABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING ALL POINT TO HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...SOILS ARE DRY AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 WILL BE OVER 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... JUST WHEN IT SEEMED THE EWRD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST COULD NOT SLOW ANY MORE...IT SLOWED JUST A BIT ON RECENT 05.00Z RUNS. BUT...FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS...THERE IS NOW VERY STRONG CLUSTERING IN THE DETERMINISTIC NCEP /GFS AND NAM/ AND ECMWF MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION/DEPTH OF THE CLOSED SYSTEM AND FRONTAL TIMING THROUGH THE AREA. THUS...THE FORECAST HAS MOVED TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE...AND EDITS TO THE FORECAST MADE BY PREVIOUS SHIFT WERE MAINTAINED/EXPANDED IN 1) A MUCH WARMER SUNDAY FOR MOST AND 2) A SLOWING OF THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND/STORMS SUN AFTN/NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TONIGHT...AS THE FIRST REAL PUSH OF DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT ARRIVE...SHOULD SEE MORE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-71. FORCING STILL LARGELY WEAK HOWEVER...AND IT IS NOTED THAT SREF POPS DIMINISH QUITE A BIT FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS BACK TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING PV ANOMALY OVER IND/ILL. STILL AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO BEGIN TO REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW/HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. MID TO UPPER 60S. ON SUNDAY MORNING AT 12Z...THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER SWRN IA WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW SPREADING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE COLD FRONT INCHES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND SHOULD BE WELL ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD STRETCH FROM NERN IND/NWRN OH BACK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OHIO RIVERS...IN CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS IN THE MID/HIGH LEVELS FROM KAREN IN THE GULF. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONLY VERY SLOWLY EAST...THE COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL TOO...AND SPREAD INTO THE WRN FORECAST AREA BY NOON OR SO...BUT SINCE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND PWATS WILL BE RUNNING NEARLY 3 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL...SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE RAIN BAND AS TEMPERATURES WARM CONSIDERABLY...IN FACT...PORTIONS OF THE SCIOTO VALLEY/CENTRAL OHIO COULD REACH THE MID 80S IF A FEW HOURS OF SUN ARE REALIZED. THE RAIN BAND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IN PAINSTAKINGLY SLOW FASHION. DUE TO THIS SLOW MOVEMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES AND AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE PREDECESSOR RAIN EVENT /PRE/ SIGNALS IN THE 04.00Z MODELS ARE MORE MUTED/OUT OF SYNC THAN IN THE 05.00Z MODELS...BUT NOT COMPLETELY GONE. THUS...WE/LL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE MESOSCALE BANDS OF WARM RAIN-DOMINATED STORMS GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT...TALL/SKINNY CAPE...SLOW MOVEMENT...AND TROPICAL CONTRIBUTIONS. THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WE ARE FORECASTING 1.50-2.00" OF RAINFALL /BASIN AVERAGE/ MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-71...BUT AMOUNTS PAST 3" ARE CERTAINLY ATTAINABLE IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET SETS UP LATER SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. IN TERMS OF SEVERE...LIKE SPC ALLUDED TO /SWODY2/ THE SPATIAL TARGET OF POTENTIAL SEVERE IN THIS SETUP IS NARROW...LIKELY FAR MORE NARROW THAN THE SLGT RISK ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THE RAIN BAND...THINK IT IS PROBABLY A 2-TIER COUNTY AREA THAT IS UNDER THE THREAT...AND WHETHER THAT IS IN WRN OHIO OR ERN INDIANA WILL BE DETERMINED BY FRONTAL LOCATION AT PEAK HEATING. MLCAPE/LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...CAPE IS TALL/SKINNY. SO LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL DIFFICULT. BUT...THE 05.00Z NAM /CLEAR SIGNAL/ AND 05.00Z GFS/ECMWF /MORE MUDDLED SIGNAL/ LIFT A 35KT 925MB JET NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN OHIO AT PEAK HEATING /PERHAPS A FRONTAL WAVE?/ THAT CONTRIBUTES ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WIND DAMAGE AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM MINI/LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD HEATING BE SUFFICIENT THAT CLOSE OR JUST IN FRONT OF THE RAIN BAND. GIVEN THE VERY CIRCULAR NATURE OF THE FLOW FIELD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...FLOW IS UNIDIRECTIONAL FOR THE MOST PART...AND EVEN BACKS WITH HEIGHT AT TIMES...WHICH DOESN/T SUGGEST ANY LONG-TERM SEVERE THREAT /TEMPORAL/...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/LOW LCLS/0-3KM CAPE ARE ALL SUGGESTIVE THAT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF I-75. STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT/RAIN BAND EXIT. CHILLY WITH HIGHS NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MORNING LOWS. A BRIEF WINDOW OF SUN AND THE A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS TO AFFECT NORTHERN AREAS AS THE REMAINS OF THE COMMA HEAD SWING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH THE UPPER LOW ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S. LOWERED TEMPS THOUGH A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AN AREA OF SHOWERS (WITH SOME WEAK EMBEDDED CONVECTION) IS MOVING ENE FROM INDIANA INTO OHIO. THE BULK OF THIS RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON A TRAJECTORY TO MISS THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TAF SITES...BUT IT IS MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MIGHT PUT THOSE TAF SITES IN THE PATH OF SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN OVER INDIANA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING EVEN WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH...THE FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT BREAK...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WHILE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS STILL AN UNCERTAINTY...DIURNAL TIMING SEEMS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT QUESTION IS HOW LONG THE PRECIPITATION WILL LAST. THE MAIN FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES EVEN BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME OF DAY. A VCSH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A -SHRA AND AN EVEN LONGER VCSH AT KDAY...WHERE PRECIPITATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE VALID FORECAST TIME. WIDESPREAD FRONTAL PRECIPITATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...BINAU AVIATION...HATZOS  FXUS61 KILN 051941 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 341 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TONIGHT. STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE PLUME WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW EXTENDS FROM TEXAS/LOUISIANA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWAT VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES IS HELPING TO MAKE THIS PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT. 18Z OB FROM LOUISVILLE HAD THIS AREA OF RAIN PRODUCE 1.23 INCHES IN A ONE HOUR PERIOD. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HI-RES MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING AND THE FIRST PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW WILL APPROACH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...IT WILL BE DRAWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF...ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED OFF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THIS MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR WEST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNRISE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH TAKES NEARLY THE ENTIRE DAY TO SPIN ACROSS IOWA...AND ONGOING DEEP MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON SUNDAY...WITH AVERAGE QPF FORECASTS RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. CONSIDERING THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...PWAT VALUES NEARING 230 PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND THE STRONG CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL JET PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY...THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE AREAS THAT WOULD RECEIVE EFFICIENT RAINFALL THAT COULD EXCEED THE 2.5 INCH FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH. THE RESULT COULD POTENTIALLY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A THREAT FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THIS THREAT AM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE LOW. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LOW...AROUND 500 J/KG ML CAPE AT 15Z PER THE NAM ACROSS THE WEST...0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE 30KT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS. WITH THE HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW LCLS ALSO IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE TORNADO. ACROSS THE EAST...THERE WILL BE TIME FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT TAKES ITS TIME TO APPROACH THOSE ZONES. THEREFORE...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL CELLS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHEAR ACROSS THE EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE NOT AS STRONG AS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER A NARROW RIBBON OF AN INTERFACE OF STRONG SHEAR IN THE WEST COULD EXIST WITH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PRODUCE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...SHOULD THIS CORRIDOR OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DEVELOP. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE SEVERE THREATS FOR OUR AREA TOMORROW IN THE HWO. THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO ACCELERATE AS WELL AND BEGINS TO GET ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MOST PRECIPITATION EXITING OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PIVOT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH SOME COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT ALONG WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE...EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 2 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURES RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND THEN SET UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES AND WE SLOWLY GET INTO MORE RETURN FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE REGION...THIS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF AVIATION WEATHER. FIRST...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A LULL MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT TAF SITES STARTING AROUND 12Z WHEN PREVAILING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. PREVAILING SHOWERS SHOULD END AT CVG SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-052-060-061-070-077. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ089>093. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LATTO NEAR TERM...LATTO SHORT TERM...LATTO LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...CONIGLIO  FXUS61 KILN 062119 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 519 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE BELIEVE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED AND LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE CATEGORY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS MOST AREAS BY MORNING. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA WILL TAPER OFF EARLY IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE OF SHORT TERM WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND ECMWF...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT TIMING AND LOCATION...PARAMETERS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THOSE PARAMETERS INCLUDE A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON A LOW LEVEL JET...RELATIVELY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND STORM MOTION VECTORS INDICATING TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THEREAFTER. ELECTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WHICH...AFTER AN INTERLUDE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTAINING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE 70S. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON MONDAY...WHEN WARM ADVECTION MAY PUSH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF THEM OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES ONLY EXPECT CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND START TO GUST LATE IN THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...  FXUS61 KILN 312015 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 415 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH SETTLES ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW INCREASING WARMTH AND HUMIDITY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS PREDICTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO SOUTHERN CANADA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CUMULUS THAT FORMED THIS AFTERNOON IN A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS. UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW DEW POINTS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE 50S FOR LOWS MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH THE HIGH CENTER SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE FAR TO THE WEST...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS. WHEN THE LOW ENTERS SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY...A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE MARGINAL WITH CAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG...MODELS INDICATE A RATHER POTENT 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD HELP IN THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. FED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET...WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND FAVORABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTH MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE A BIT INTO THE LOWER 80S UNDER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PROGRESSIVE ACTIVE PATTERN TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. NUMERICAL MODELS CONSISTENT WITH INITIAL SYSTEM TRACKING THRU SRN CANADA/NRN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS ALLOWS A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP INTO THE REGION AND LAY OUT E-W PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. UPPER SUPPORT IS PROGRESSIVE SO WILL DIMINISH POPS TO SLIGHT CHC ACRS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT. NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIPPLE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT FOR THIS ENHANCED CHANCE. THE SFC FRONT TO SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK. THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS ARE OSCILLATING SOME ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE SE EXPECT THE FRONT TO LAY OUT ACRS THE SOUTH END OF THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE RIDGE ACRS KY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH THE BEST POPS ACRS THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A DRY AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TODAY...AND THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. WIND FLOW IS A LITTLE BIT VARIABLE TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY GENERALLY IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...PERHAPS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT IN A COUNTERCLOCKWISE DIRECTION...TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS DIRECTION WILL COMBINE WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASING MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR FOG AT KLUK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ON SUNDAY...TURNING SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN A MOISTENING AIR MASS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT VARIOUS TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HATZOS  FXUS61 KILN 290840 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 440 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO THE WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORT WAVE IN THE MID SOUTH WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL HELP TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING. MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT GREATER COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. FORECAST HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STORMS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SO WHILE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE WHILE FORECAST HIGHS USE A MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE FURTHER SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS EVEN INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... DEEP MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE TRIED TO FINE TUNE THESE DISTURBANCES WITH REGARD TO DURATION AND TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AND PREVAILING SHOWERS. EXPECT A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST EXISTING THE AREA AROUND MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS VCNTY OF CVG AND DAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL PROLONG THE VCSH WELL INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS FOR THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS. WHILE THE ABOVE IS WHAT IS FORECASTED IN THE TAFS A POP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT ANYTIME CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THIS PATTERN. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR RIVER FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VCNTY KLUK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BECOMING VFR BY 12Z. EARLIER HEAVY PCPN OVER CENTRAL OH WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR FOG KCMH HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNRISE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 12KT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAYDU  FXUS61 KILN 291451 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1051 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO THE WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BLOWOFF FROM MCS OVER SE MO WILL STREAM NNE INTO WESTERN OHIO VALLEY TODAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SUGGESTING CONVECTION BY THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE OFF BY A BIT AND PROBABLY HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE COOLING EFFECT OF THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. MORNING SOUNDING AT KILN SHOWED A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 82 DEG AND I DO EXPECT THINGS TO POP TOWARDS 18Z AS THE SFC TEMPS RISE TO THIS VALUE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE STORMS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY. DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEND AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SO WHILE FORCING DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE WARMER GFS MOS GUIDANCE WHILE FORECAST HIGHS USE A MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BE FURTHER SCATTERED STORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS EVEN INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WHILE DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE LACK OF A TRIGGER WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO A MINIMUM. THUS THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE TREND STARTED IN THE 06Z ISSUANCE OF REDUCING PREVAILING SHOWERS AND THE WINDOW FOR VCTS. ALL MENTION OF PCPN TONIGHT HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, WHEN YOU HAVE THIS TYPE OF DEEP MOIST FLOW YOU CAN NEVER RULE OUT COMPLETELY A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE CHANCES OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING. THUS NO MENTION OF FOG IN THE 12Z TAF. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SW AT 8 TO 15KT A FEW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON COULD REACH 18KT. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...FRANKS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...HAYDU  FXUS61 KILN 151426 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1026 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE 12Z KILN SOUNDING SAMPLED AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD LOOK VERY FAMILIAR TO ANYONE WHO HAS VIEWED A SOUNDING FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. PERHAPS MOST NOTABLE IS THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.83 INCHES IS THE HIGHEST VALUE THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS WARM AND MOIST STRETCH OF DAYS THAT BEGAN LATE LAST WEEK. THIS IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NOT FAR OFF RECORD LEVELS EITHER. THIS TYPE OF ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS ONE THAT FAVORS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. BY EVENING...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE OVER 4KM (WITH FREEZING LEVELS APPROACHING 16KFT). MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 850MB CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. AIDED BY THE SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...THE FOCUS ON LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE IN THIS LOCATION...PERHAPS INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE ILN CWA WITH TIME. WITH FAIRLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM RICHMOND IN TO KENTON OH...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. AS THE 12Z MODELS AND UPDATED HIGH-RES RUNS COME IN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN ORDER TO DETERMINE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION PASSED THROUGH WILMINGTON THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW EXITING THE CWA TO THE EAST. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA SEEM TO BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THIS WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THIS MAY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT COMING SOUTH FROM MICHIGAN. PRECIPITATION APPEARS MUCH LESS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...THOUGH THE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST A FEW CELLS LATER ON TODAY. THE SEVERE THREAT...AS INDICATED BY SPC...IS RATHER MARGINAL. THE SETUP LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR (20 KNOTS AT 0-3KM) AND VERY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP ONCE PEAK HEATING HAS BEEN REACHED...AND THIS UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POOR AND UNFOCUSED. OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRONG WET DOWNBURSTS...HAZARDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE WARMEST VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA (NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 90 DEGREES). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A MORE RECOGNIZABLE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHEAR WILL BE GREATER BUT INSTABILITY LESS ON TUESDAY. SO SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE GREATER THREAT WOULD STILL SEEM TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 2 INCHES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATION MULTIPLE TIMES. FOCUS WILL SHIFT WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND OVERRUNS THE RETREATING FRONT. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST LOWS STAYED CLOSE TO WARMER MOS GUIDANCE. A MOS BLEND LOOKED REASONABLE ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. MOS SHOWING QUITE A SPREAD FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS. EXPECT READINGS TO STARTING WARMING BACK UP ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS GFS MOS SUGGESTS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONT WILL DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT OPENING UP AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING IT UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH ENHANCED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WHEN THE BOUNDARY INITIALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THEN AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH BREAK IN THE WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW. AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO RESULT IN A CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER HOWEVER BELIEVE IT WILL BE ISOLATED ENOUGH AT THIS POINT NOT TO PUT IN THE TAF THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT MOST SITES VCTS WITH THIS HOWEVER DID ADD IN A COUPLE HOUR TIME PERIOD OF TEMPO TSRA AT KILN WHERE THE POTENTIAL SEEMED A LITTLE HIGHER. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER LINGER VCSH AND VCTS MENTION AT THE TAF SITES. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGH MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SOME STORMS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK  FXUS61 KILN 192031 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 431 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. CHANCES FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG...WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... GLANCING AT A REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC...THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BECOMES VERY OBVIOUS. CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ARE CURVING TO THE LEFT...AND CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE CURVING TO THE RIGHT. THIS ZONE OF DEFORMATION HAS BEEN A GENERAL FOCUS FOR FORCING TODAY...THOUGH THE MOST POTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY HAS BEEN PRESENT. MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DEVOID OF INSTABILITY RIGHT NOW...THOUGH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA IS RESULTING IN A REBOUND...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...SOME CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...THOUGH ORGANIZED ACTIVITY LOOKS VERY UNLIKELY (THANKS TO THE VERY SCATTERSHOT WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 6KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE). IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE COVERED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY...RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING QUICKLY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS WILL THUS BE THE LOWEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... ACCORDING TO THE COAST.NOAA.GOV/HURRICANES WEBSITE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE / TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE NWS WILMINGTON OHIO FORECAST AREA IN THE MONTH OF JUNE SINCE AUDREY IN 1957. THAT WILL CHANGE ON SATURDAY...AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OPEN (WITH THE OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH)...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT LEAST FOR THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...IT IS NOT FREQUENT THAT A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EVIDENT ON THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM HIGH-RES MODELS. THAT WAS CERTAINLY THE CASE WHEN LOOKING AT THE 12Z SPC-WRF. LESS IMPORTANT THAN THE EXACT PRECIPITATION PATTERNS WILL BE THE OVERALL ARRANGEMENT OF THE EXPECTED RAINFALL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HEAVY. IT IS EXCEPTIONALLY RARE TO SAMPLE A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF OVER TWO INCHES IN JUNE...BUT ALL AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES OF 2.0-2.2 INCHES WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ON SATURDAY. AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...NWS LITTLE ROCK MEASURED A PWAT OF 2.06 INCHES (AND THEY WERE ALREADY TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE GREATEST PLUME OF MOISTURE). VALUES THIS HIGH ARE PUSHING 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WHICH MIGHT NOT BE OVERLY MEANINGFUL IN JANUARY...BUT IS OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN IN JUNE. THE EXTREMELY MOIST SOUNDINGS AND LARGE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS (WELL OVER 4KM) WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION THAT IS TROPICAL IN NATURE...PRODUCING LESS LIGHTNING THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...BUT WITH RAINFALL RATES THAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROOKVILLE INDIANA TO LANCASTER OHIO. THIS WATCH COVERS THE AREA WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR...BASED ON SEVERAL FORECAST FACTORS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE WILL MATCH UP THE BEST WITH THE OVERALL FORCING (DEFORMATION PLAYING A LARGE ROLE) ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATCH AREA. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...THIS IS ALSO WHERE IT IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP. A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND 3 INCHES WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNCOMMON...BUT HEAVY OR REPEATED CONVECTION MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EVEN HIGHER TOTALS. THIS COULD OCCUR AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING ANYWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA...BUT THE GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA...WHERE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE PRIMED AND THE SOIL IS ALREADY VERY SATURATED. ONE FINAL CONCERN TO MENTION FOR SATURDAY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS NOT ONE THAT SUPPORTS TRADITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK (DISTRIBUTED NARROWLY ON A SOUNDING) AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ESPECIALLY STRONG. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE SOMEWHAT STRONG...ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. IN AN EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS...WEAK CIRCULATIONS CAN SOMETIMES DEVELOP. THIS THREAT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE ON SATURDAY...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...AS TORNADO WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IN INDIANA...THE POSSIBILITY SEEMED WORTH NOTING. THE POP FORECAST WAS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH 100-PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TAPERED SOMEWHAT IN THE FAR NORTH. WITH BILL PROGRESSING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...POPS WERE SCALED BACK FOR THE EVENING HOURS...AND ALMOST ENTIRELY ELIMINATED GOING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WERE DRAWN IN NON- DIURNALLY...WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO SEVERELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEATING. HOWEVER...ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...A LATE-DAY RALLY INTO THE LOWER 80S APPEARS VERY POSSIBLE. MIN TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... ON SUNDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST WILL THEN MOVE EAST AND PUSH OVER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. 850 TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO QUICKLY WARM SUNDAY MORNING AND RISE ABOVE 20 DEGREES C IN SOME AREAS. THIS WILL HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INVERSION. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE AROUND 7 TO 7.5 DEGREES C/KM. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR MOVING IN THAT WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE DCAPE AND ABSOLUTE SURFACE DELTA THETA-E VALUES. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING SFC DELTA THETA-E VALUES BELOW -30 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO BE AROUND 1500 J/KG. CAPE VALUES ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE ALSO IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE BUT ARE SUFFICIENT WITH 40 KTS FORECASTED. GIVEN THE ABOVE SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS OF CURRENT THE GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF AN MCS THAT FORMS TOWARDS OUR WEST. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ON MONDAY ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT THAT IS SUPPOSED TO STALL AND WASHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT NORTH MONDAY ALLOWING 70 DEWPOINTS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AGAIN SHOW HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES ON BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC DELTA THETA-E AND DCAPE VALUES ALSO STILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE. THIS MEANS ANOTHER DAY OF POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST TUESDAY WILL START TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND STALLS. THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE MESOSCALE REMAINS CLOUDED FOR THE EXTENDED BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEMS TO BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE CLEAR. IT APPEARS THAT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE CWA WEATHER ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST EVERYDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF TD BILL. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES IN THESE SHOWERS THIS AFTN. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO KCVG/KLUK WHERE BETTER INSTBY EXISTS. EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH REMNANTS OF BILL TRACKING THRU THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY TO A PSN NEAR KCVG AROUND 18Z AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY...SPREADING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH IFR CONDITIONS LKLY AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS. THE BEST THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL OCCUR ACRS THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...HAINES AVIATION...AR  FXUS61 KILN 252040 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 440 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN EAST-WEST FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... THINNING CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SO FAR ANY SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. AND IT SEEMS THAT WILL BE THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING. BUT EVEN AT THAT THERE ARE NO READILY APPARENT TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT REMNANTS OF ANOTHER MCS COULD MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD BUT DID SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCE POPS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4 KM. SO THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES IN A PROLONGED MODERATE RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVIER BURSTS. WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND DRIER AIR WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART A MOS BLEND SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER DID LEAN TOWARDS COOLER NAM MOS ON SATURDAY WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES BRING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM TIME PERIOD EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION. WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME SPOTTY IFR TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING THAT THE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE TO WORK EASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR SO THINK WE MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT TOWARD EVENING AND WILL COVER THIS THREAT WITH A VCTS. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ASSUMING THE STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE EXTENDED KCVG TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...NOVAK AVIATION...JGL  FXUS61 KILN 081701 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 101 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TODAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO BRING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... REDUCED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE DIMINISHED THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS BETWEEN KLMK AND OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. WITH WATCH ONLY GOING UNTIL 18Z...WILL KEEP FOR MOST OF THE ILN KENTUCKY COUNTIES UNTIL THEN...BUT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENSION IF ACTIVITY BEGINS TO FLARE UP. CURRENT THINKING PER THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARMEST CLOUD DEPTHS/GREATEST FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD WITH THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM IS 71 AT DAYTON...RECORD MAY BE BROKEN IF CURRENT HIGH FORECAST OF 70 HOLDS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... FOR TONIGHT...A POTENT AND COMPACT LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT TO NORTHERN OHIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE CARRYING AMPLE MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST. A LULL IN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO A BRIEF VISIT BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ANOTHER SHOT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS AROUND 80 MOST LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT AND MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT INTO SATURDAY. WITH GENERALLY WEAK FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL...AND GRADUALLY DECREASING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE...AS WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE LARGE RIDGE / UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BE RETROGRADING WESTWARD...PLACING THE OHIO VALLEY INTO A PATTERN OF FALLING HEIGHTS AND UPPER FLOW THAT SHIFTS TO THE NW. WITH RESPECT TO THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGHING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT WITH REGARDS TO THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...IT IS CLEAR THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DECREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE VALUES EXPERIENCED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT ACRS NRN KY...SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACRS KCVG/KLUK PCPN SHUD STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW LEVEL CAA...CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR AT MOST TAF SITES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST TODAY. AS A RESULT WILL LIMIT PCPN TO JUST SHRA/VCSH TODAY. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THRU MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBLY OF BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO TO VFR THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH THE FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH. AS A SFC LIFTS NE FROM THE PLAINS TODAY INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING BACK SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A MENTION OF VCSH TO COVER THIS CHANCE AT THIS TIME. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089-090- 094>100. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDR NEAR TERM...JDR SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...AR  FXUS61 KILN 081957 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 357 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE IN THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS SHIFTING AROUND A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING TONIGHT WILL BRING A THREAT FOR FLOODING TO INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN EXTREMELY MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS. ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BEFORE CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... TWO AREAS OF CONCERN FOR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FIRST BEING NORTHERN KENTUCKY WHERE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS...AND THE SECOND BEING ECNTL IND/WCNTL OH LATER TONIGHT WHERE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS. STRONG/PRECIPITATION-REINFORCED BOUNDARY ON THE ILN/LMK/JKL CWA BORDER HAS BEEN STATIONARY ALL DAY. TO THE NORTH...CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING UP DEEP SWLY FLOW ON NWRN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WRN ATLANTIC HAS LED TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL DAY UNDER INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS MAY BE THREATENED IN A FEW SPOTS FOR TODAY. RADAR MOSAIC CLEARLY SHOWS SOME EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUMS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHIELD PUSHING THROUGH INDIANA NOW. EXPECT SHORTWAVE OVER INDIANA TO PUSH THROUGH OHIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING BRINGING SLOW END TO RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER CNTL/NRN KY WHERE BETTER INSTBY AND PWAT MAXIMUM LIES. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS TO TAPER THIS ACTIVITY OFF BY SUNSET...WITH THE AREA ENTERING A LULL FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW IN MISSOURI...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT...INTO THE TOLEDO AREA BY JUST AFTER SUNRISE. THERE HAS BEEN PRETTY STRONG AGREEMENT VIA A WIDE ARRAY OF PARAMETERIZED AND NON-PARAMETERIZED MODELS THAT SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL STREAK ACROSS INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN OHIO. LOW LEVEL JET WITH THIS SYSTEM IS QUITE ROBUST /35-45KTS/ AND NO SURPRISE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAXIMUM WITH PWATS RUNNING SO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH IS ALSO VERY STRONG OVER THE WRN ILN FORECAST AREA ON THE NOSE OF THIS LLJ. EXPECT A CLUSTER OF HEAVY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS TO BE IN THIS AREA OF STRONG THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC FORCING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THAT BULK OF HEAVY RAIN WILL MISS THE ILN FORECAST AREA...TENDENCY FOR HEAVIER ECHOES TO BUILD SOUTH/EAST WITH TIME MAY ALLOW FOR HEAVY RATES INTO ECNTL IND/WCNTL OH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LIKELY ENDING BY SUNRISE. SO RATHER SMALL/SHORT DURATION FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL...AS RAINFALL RATES COULD BE EXCESSIVE AND EXTREMELY EFFICIENT VIA DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT...FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET...AND ANOMALOUS PWAT. NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION IS AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF STRONGER CORES DEVELOP THAN FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING THAT WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING/INVERSION WILL BE SHALLOW AND THUS WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...A NON- ZERO THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS TO ROTATE A LITTLE BIT AND/OR PERHAPS CAUSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENT EXISTS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WHILE THE FORECAST AREA GETS INTO BREEZY WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME SUBSIDENCE. STILL AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS THE PWAT PLUME LINGERS OVER THE AREA...SO THREAT FOR SHOWERS REMAINS THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN KY/SRN OH NEAR OLD CONVERGENCE AXIS...AND ALONG SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SAGGING EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING SUBSIDING BY AFTERNOON...THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ALONG THESE TWO BOUNDARIES....AND THEN WANING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING BY THURSDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH HEIGHTS RISING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADES TO THE WEST...THE FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ENVELOP THE GREAT LAKES...MAKING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A CONTINUED RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...BUT ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. THIS FRONT MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THROUGH THE REGION...AND THUS...A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THESE CHANCES MAY BE FAIRLY LIMITED...WITH A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO HELP PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION (AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD). MOST OF THE MODELS (INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF) ARE NOT PARTICULARLY RESPONSIVE WITH ANY LOW-LEVEL FORCING DURING THIS TIME FRAME EITHER...AND QPF OUTPUT IS MARGINAL. SO...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR BELOW. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN DOES SUPPORT A CONTINUED WARMING IN TEMPERATURES...AND ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE STILL EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AS A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE MODEL SPREAD BECOMES LARGE...WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY NOTED IN GFSE SPREADS BY 00Z TUESDAY. SIMPLY BASED ON THE PATTERN...PRECIPITATION DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE TO OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL VALUES. THE EXACT DETAILS OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH (WHICH MAY POTENTIALLY CLOSE OFF) WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE WET/COOL PATTERN CONTINUES. THE 12Z GFS SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM LANSING MI TO MEMPHIS TN SEEMS SOMEWHAT STRANGE...BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE SOMEWHAT ANOMALOUS...WITH GEFS 500MB FORECAST HEIGHT ANOMALIES APPROACHING TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINNING TO DRIFT NORTHWARD...SO A SLOW NORTHWARD TREND IN THE IFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN CHANGE. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBLY OF BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACRS KCVG/KLUK/KILN. AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...RENEWED CHANCES OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...WITH EVEN POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AT ESPECIALLY KDAY...THEN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY INTO VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 25KTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEAR/AFTER 14-16Z TIMEFRAME. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>044. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089-090- 094>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BINAU NEAR TERM...BINAU SHORT TERM...BINAU LONG TERM...HATZOS AVIATION...JDR  FXUS61 KILN 060748 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 348 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS RAIN WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE EVENING...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...ATTACHED TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THIS FRONT CAN BE MOST EASILY DEPICTED WHEN LOOKING AT SURFACE DEWPOINTS...AND APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON A GENERALLY WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NWS ILN FORECAST AREA. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT...A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE ILN CWA BETWEEN 15Z AND 00Z...PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WITH A SURFACE LOW...A MID-LEVEL WAVE...AND FRONTAL FORCING...THIS WEATHER SETUP IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN A CHALLENGE...WITH THE MODELS OSCILLATING QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS REGARDING THE LOW TRACK AND AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. NOW THAT THE OVERALL FEATURES SEEM TO BE IN ALIGNMENT (AS VERIFIED BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS)...THE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW SIGNIFICANT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE. BASED ON 00Z RAOBS FROM KILN/KILX/KOHX...THE 00Z GFS/NAM BOTH INITIALIZED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOUT 0.1-0.2 INCHES TOO HIGH. BOTH MODELS SHOW VALUES OF 1.9-2.0 INCHES GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA TODAY...SO PERHAPS A MORE REASONABLE EXPECTATION WOULD BE TO SHAVE OFF A TENTH OR TWO FROM THESE VALUES. 00Z WRF-NMM/WRF-ARW RUNS WERE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASES IN REFLECTIVITY ARE NOW BEING NOTED COMING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA. FOLLOWING ADJUSTED TRENDS FROM THESE HIGH-RES MODELS...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ILN CWA BY 12Z...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AMIDST THE BANDS OF STEADY RAINFALL. 90-100 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...POPS TAPER OFF WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT...AS VIRTUALLY ALL MODELS SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE BANDING AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. ONCE BEHIND THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME. THE DEGREE OF THE THREAT FOR FLOODING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WITH EXTREMELY WEAK INSTABILITY (AND SOME DEGREE OF A SURFACE INVERSION)...CONVECTION IN A TRADITIONAL SENSE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...IF FORCING CAN OVERCOME THE WEAK INSTABILITY TO ALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO DEVELOP. MODEL QPF OUTPUT (WHICH MUST BE USED WITH CAUTION) FAILS TO EVEN PRODUCE MORE THAN 1.0-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN A WIDESPREAD 1.5 INCHES OVER 12 HOURS WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING...ESPECIALLY IF CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK (ON A PIVOT POINT AT THE NORTH END OF THE SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION). THOUGH INSTABILITY (WEAK AS IT IS) WILL BE GREATEST IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION BANDS TO DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH. THUS...THE HWO MENTION FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD...THROUGH ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THESE THREATS LOOKING RATHER CONDITIONAL AND UNLIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL SEEMS UNNECESSARY. THE AXIS OF COOLEST MAX TEMPS EXTENDS ROUGHLY WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO EVEN GET TO 70 DEGREES. THE WARMEST PART OF THE ILN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE FAR NORTH...WHERE PRECIPITATION AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO EXIST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. WITH NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...850MB TEMPS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECOVER...THOUGH THE EXTRA SUN ALONE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY. A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY...THOUGH THIS IS NOT WITHOUT SOME CONCERN IN WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF A DIRTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE MAY BE SHORTWAVE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF DEFINITION MOVING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND UNDER NW FLOW WITH A SUBSTANTIAL H5 RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A DEEP TROUGH AND ASSOC SHORTWAVE TRAVELING UP THE EAST COAST. DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH...WITH OHIO VALLEY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BRINGING A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVES TRAVELING ABOVE THE RIDGE AND THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A RETURN TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THIS TIME FROM A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS AREA IS MORE DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY DAY 7 AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN RETURNS WITH NW FLOW. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE MO AND SRN IL WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE MORNING HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. WHILE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT VERY HIGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PERHAPS ALLOW FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDER IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AT KCVG/KLUK. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND 18Z WITH MORE SCATTERED POP UP ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ENDING BY 06Z. VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO MVFR AND A SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF CIGS IS FORECAST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT THE KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KDAY TERMINALS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CIGS APPROACHED MVFR FOR A SHORT TIME AT KCMH/KLCK BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. BACKING WINDS AND A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...KURZ  FXUS61 KILN 192054 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 454 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A POTENT VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA ARE RAPIDLY PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST. RECENT HRRR RUNS HANDLED THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL AND ALSO ARE PINPOINTING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER INDIANA AND SHOWS THEM MOVING INTO THE ILN CWA AROUND 22-23Z. COVERAGE FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER...BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH AND MOVE OUT OF THE ILN AREA BY AROUND 04Z. RAIN RATES WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WERE NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT CONSIDERING VERY WET SOILS IN MANY AREAS...PW/S INCREASING TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA...AND FAVORABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE A BIT THROUGH THIS EVENING TO AROUND 20-30 KNOTS SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO...BUT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE DIMINISHING AS DCAPES WILL DROP BELOW 1000 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ILN CWA OVERNIGHT...SO TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE A TAD LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS A RESULT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION...BUT AT THIS TIME THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20-40 KT RANGE WHILE MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 2000-3500 J/KG. HENCE...A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND USHERS IN A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE IMMEDIATE LONG TERM. THEREAFTER...HAVE USED A BLEND OF ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT TIMING FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS S/WV ENERGY DIGS EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR ALL LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY..BUT THE THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY AND DRIER AIR BUILDS IN. FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS MID LEVEL RIDGE TRIES TO REASSERT ITSELF NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS...WE WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY.. BY SUNDAY...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...MAY BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THIS IS WAY OUT IN THE EXTENDED...A TYPICAL SUMMER 30 PERCENT CHANCE WILL BE EMPLOYED. DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH AN UPTICK IN HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO PUT AN END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM NW-SE IN THE EVENING. MVFR VSBYS MAY BE FOUND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AT JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION BUT ATTM JUST INCLUDED IT AT KLUK IN THE RIVER VALLEY. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100. IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KURZ NEAR TERM...KURZ SHORT TERM...KURZ LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS  FXUS61 KILN 282328 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 628 PM EST Wed Nov 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance will push through the Great Lakes later tonight and Thursday bringing a chance of light wintry mix, changing to rain during the day on Thursday. A potent low pressure system will move into the mid Mississippi Valley Friday night and Saturday, as a warm front develops over the Ohio Valley and moves north. This will open the door to much warmer air and the likelihood rain heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Stratocumulus has been slow to erode today and has actually filled in to some degree with afternoon sunshine and subtle warming. This complicates near-term cloud trends and thus will emphasize a slower clearing trend into the evening. Model soundings are pretty bullish in suggesting that as warm advection develops and low level flow backs to the south, that the stratocumulus will break up but be readily topped by thickening mid/high clouds downstream of weak shortwave currently over IA/NE moving east on developing fast/zonal flow. With low level flow backing into a warm advection profile, temperatures tonight will be slow to fall, and may in fact plateau early in the evening before starting a slow rise late in the night. Offsetting this potential will be surface dewpoints only in the teens, which may allow for brief/quick drops in temperatures where clouds thin or any brief periods of clearing appear. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... Spent a great deal of time today on Thursday morning/afternoon portion of the forecast, with at least a low probability of some impacts via light freezing rain or wintry mix. As parade of weak shortwave energy on zonal flow aloft crosses the Ohio Valley, and low level flow begins to increase on the backside of departing high pressure, isentropic ascent will increase in multiple layers of the troposphere with the potential for areas of precipitation breaking out. The first area will be from Indiana/Michigan into northern/central Ohio early on Thursday morning into the early afternoon as the 290-300k isentropic layer activates with modest vertical motion owing to higher- based warm advection and weak shortwave energy. There would be high probabilities of ice nuclei in this higher based cloud ceiling, thus would think this has a higher chance of producing a laterally-moving band of very light snow or flurries across the northern sections of the forecast area, especially into the Columbus area late morning into the afternoon, and points west earlier in the morning. A more concerning area of precipitation is possible or even likely to develop at some point via lower level /280-285k/ isentropic ascent owing to warm advection and an increasing low level moisture transport signal out of the mid-south. There is some disagreement in the 28.12Z model suite with timing and degree of saturation in this area of forcing, and this is key to timing and potential impacts of any light wintry mix. The 28.12Z NMM- based model data /NAMNest - HIRES-W-NMM - NAM12km/ are the most aggressive and bullish on low level saturation beginning about 9 AM in southeast KY/northern KY...spreading northeast through the late morning into the afternoon. If these models verified, a 1-3 hour period of light freezing rain would be in the cards for most areas west of I-71 from mid-late morning into early Thursday afternoon with trace-few hundredths of an inch of glaze potential. The vast majority of other model cores...including the ECMWF/GFS/ARW-based WRF cores/CMC and most importantly the HRRR-ensemble are slower to saturate the low levels and thus QPF is very sporadic/light, and most importantly delayed into a warmer part of the day and across the far south where main roads will likely have warmed enough to mitigate any impact from light freezing rain /if surface temperatures are still below freezing rain - which is another timing-based issue/. In the end, considering the amalgam of model data including all ensembles and trends, just did not have the confidence /70-80%/ to issue an advisory on the current model signal. That being said - it's a nonzero threat for a low impact brief freezing rain event especially across southeast Indiana, far western Ohio, and western portions of northern Kentucky from mid-morning to about noon on Thursday. Given even a worst-case scenario, precipitation into the area after the morning commute for the most part is another reason to hold on an Advisory issuance today, and instead message potential impacts via AFD/HWO/Social Media feeds. Due to influx of thickening lower clouds and what will likely be developing areas of light rain, have kept temperatures on the cold side of guidance given a great deal of moistening over the very dry boundary layer will initially occur that will absorb some measure of heating. To that end, also have a little cautious eye on far northern CWA that they even get above freezing and that potential of freezing rain won't linger through the afternoon up there given low level trajectories will have some component of easterly flow. On Thursday night, as vertical motion/warm advection develop in the vicinity of a developing warm front across Kentucky, light rain /or perhaps drizzle/ will become more widespread especially along and south of the Ohio River. Temperatures are not apt to fall more than a degree or two as warm advection strengthens and the warm front moves north into the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak surface wave to track east through the Ohio Valley early Friday, as surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Pcpn will come to an end early with a temporary dry period for most of the area during the aftn into the early evening. Temperatures look to be a little above normal with highs Friday from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. Mid and upper level flow amplifies with deep upper and surface low developing over the Central Plains. Flow backs over the Ohio Valley with 55-60KT southerly low level jet providing favorable low level convergence. Will bring pops back in Friday night and ramp up to categorical by Saturday morning. On warm side of the system expect near steady or slowly rising temperatures Friday night. Marginal instby axis looks to set up to our west, so will limit mention of thunder to slight chance Saturday in the west. Warm temperatures Saturday with highs from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south. The mid level low opens up and translates northeast through the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday. Widespread pcpn will diminish overnight Saturday into early Sunday. Warm conditions to continue with Sundays highs from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Surface trof dropping south through the region may result in a few showers Monday. Temperatures will turn a little cooler with highs Monday from near 40 northwest to the upper 40s southeast. Model solutions diverge on tack of mid level and surface low early next week. Expect pcpn to redevelop Monday night into Tuesday. Expect a wintery mix changing to mainly rain during the day Tuesday and then back to snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time confidence in timing and exact pcpn type is low due to model solution spread. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Persistent low level moisture will keep ceilings MVFR probably for few more hours this evening. Hard to judge when these ceilings will dissipate but high pressure and drier should build in enough to allow this process to occur. Later tonight through early Thursday, unsettled weather returns with a weak wave of low pressure. We may see a light wintry mix near airports, while ceilings lower again as the boundary layer moistens. Could see IFR at CVG toward the end of their 30 hour TAF. Winds not to much of an issue with speeds under 10 knots while direction backs to southeast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday night into Saturday. Localized IFR ceiling possible especially Friday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio