FXUS62 KILM 050529 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 128 AM EDT FRI APR 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RACE NORTHEAST ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM... BRINGING A WARMING TREND AND SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...RADAR IS ESSENTIALLY CLEAR NOW THAT MID LEVEL DRY AIR HAS ADVECTED OVERHEAD AND THE CLOUD DEPTH IS INSUFFICIENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. THERE IS STILL 2500-3000 FT OF SATURATED CLOUD ALOFT...AND THIS IS PRODUCING SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST AND PERHAPS IN THE LBT/CPC/EYF VICINITY. AS THE CLOUD DEPTH THINS FURTHER OVERNIGHT THIS DRIZZLE SHOULD END BY 3-4 A.M. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS... MOST OF THE AREA HAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THIS EVE. A FEW SPOTS HAVE HAD SLIGHTLY MORE THAN AN INCH AND A QUARTER. WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH WILL VERY SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND FRI. THE STEADY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL BE LOCKED IN BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FT. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY RECEIVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. POPS WILL BRIEFLY REVERSE HIGHER FRI...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES MAINLY TO THE S OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE N AND NW AND WEAK COLD AND DRY ADVECTION HAS BEGUN OR WILL BEGIN PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL TEND TO INSULATE THE AREA EVEN AS WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY BECOME LIGHT. THUS...TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...COOLEST INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHETHER THERE WILL BE PRECIP ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH BEST ENERGY WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS TO WRING OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. QUESTION MARK WILL BE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. INDICATIONS ARE WE WILL HAVE ONLY A SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY RAIN OR DRIZZLE. QPF WOULD BE MINIMAL. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH THOUGH. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW CLIMO DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MODEST COLD SURGE FOLLOWING FROPA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH MID 40S MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. COLUMN DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH P/W CONTENTS DROPPING INTO THE HALF-INCH RANGE AS CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH. COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS...AND LOWS IN THE MID 40S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING AS LOW PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A POTENT COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA. POPS CONTINUE TO BE RELEGATED TO WEAK FORCING UNTIL THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD...THURSDAY...WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IN THE FOUR CORNERS FINALLY MAKES A MOVE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...DON/T BE SURPRISED IF THIS IS DELAYED EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND. CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE INCREMENTAL IN ACTUAL VALUES BUT SIGNIFICANT AS THE 80 DEGREE THRESHOLD HAS BEEN BREACHED INLAND FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE LOW MOVED ESSENTIALLY OVER ILM AROUND MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING NE TOWARD THE NC OUTER BANKS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD VEER MORE NORTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SOLID IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. IFR/MVFR VSBYS DUE TO DZ SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 08Z AS THE CLOUD DEPTH THINS FROM ALOFT. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT LATER TODAY...PERHAPS TAKING UNTIL 14Z INLAND AND 17Z AT THE COAST TO LIFT ABOVE 1000 FT AGL. VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED EVERYWHERE BY MID AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES ANTICIPATED. NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...ONLY SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO WINDS/SEAS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. THE SURFACE LOW MOVED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER ILM AT MIDNIGHT AND IS NOW VERY NEAR NEW BERN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. SEAS WERE STILL UP AROUND 12 FT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS LATE THIS EVE. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING THE NORTHERNMOST WATERS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION AND WILL SETTLE ON NW THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT. SEAS...CHURNED UP BY A MORE CONVECTIVE REGIME OVER WATER AND A PERSISTENT NE TO ENE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO FALL. THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HOWEVER FACILITATE SUBSIDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 TO 9 FT OVERNIGHT... HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KT ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE WATERS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHEST SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...AND THESE SEAS WILL DECREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS FLOW TURNS MORE OFFSHORE AND LIMITS FETCH. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. HAVE LIMITED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO OUR NC WATERS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARDS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BENIGN FORCING...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND THE SEA BREEZE TO DRIVE THE WINDS. I DON/T SEE ANY REAL DEVIATION FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE...SANS THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH TUESDAY. WAVEWATCH SEAS SHOW A MINOR SWELL COMPONENT TO THE SPECTRUM BUT SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-3 FEET SHOULD COVER THE FORECAST WELL. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...HDL/TRA  FXUS62 KILM 290712 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 312 AM EDT MON APR 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND COULD LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SLIPPING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A SHORT-WAVE EVIDENT IN VAPOR MOVIES APPROACHES THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A VERY MOIST COLUMN TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES. PLENTIFUL CLOUDS WILL RETARD SURFACE HEATING TODAY WHICH COULD SNUFF-OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS AND THE SPC PAINTS IN "GENERAL" TSTMS FOR THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. MODERATE AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL OFFER GENEROUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE FOR 24 HOURS TOTALS. THIS SHOULD BE MANAGEABLE FOR OUR SOILS TO SOAK UP WITH NO MAJOR FLOODING CONCERNS EXPECTED. WITH THIS SAID THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY PROMPT A LOCALIZED FLS GIVEN THE ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN PLACE. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HELD IN THE 70S TODAY. ANY BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES COULD ALLOW THE THERMOMETER TO CLIMB QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S UNDER SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION EARLY TUE...DRAGGING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. AT THIS POINT TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS TAKE SHAPE. THE NAM/GFS DEVELOP A WEAK LOW ON THE COASTAL TROUGH WHILE ALOFT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES CUTOFF AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS NORTH...INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS HELPS PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT. IN CONTRAST THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE SLOWS BUT NEVER REALLY BECOMES CUTOFF WITH DEEP MOISTURE STAYING OFF THE COAST INTO TUE NIGHT. BOTH SOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE WILL BE DETERMINED BY WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. HAVE BUMPED POP TO LOW CHANCE FOR NOW BUT IF GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS VERIFY HIGHER POP WILL BE REQUIRED. CONVECTION CONTINUES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD BUT AGAIN COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL POINT TO WEAK REX BLOCK SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN US WED INTO THU. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE 5H LOW SETS UP BUT ALL SOLUTIONS POINT TO AT LEAST DIURNAL CONVECTION. WETTER SOLUTIONS POINT TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WED NIGHT WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ALONG WITH THE TROUBLE GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO WED FORECAST. WILL KEEP DIURNAL CHC POP WITH NOCTURNAL SILENT POP. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO BUT HOLD LOWS ABOVE CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY....LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING LATE THIS WEEK. THU AND THU NIGHT MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD WORK TO OFFSET HEATING. AT THIS POINT INHERITED SILENT POP LOOKS GOOD. CONFIDENCE DECREASES FRI AS BLOCKING PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHICH CREATES POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE CAROLINAS. LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHUNT DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS SIGNIFICANT 5H RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z GFS DOES SHOW A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CUTOFF...SLIDING INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS IS HARD TO BELIEVE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TYPICALLY HAS MORE STAYING POWER THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. IF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS STRONG THE FRONT COULD REMAIN STALLED WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECMWF AND WPC HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. FEEL PRUDENT ACTION IS TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM UNTIL THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP TO AFFECT THE INLAND TERMINALS INITIALLY...WITH POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS. UPPER RIDGE IS STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST...KEEPING THE EASTERN TERMINALS MOSTLY PRECIP FREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY...RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES EAST...ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO MOVE EASTWARD. THE WESTERN TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT DAYBREAK...PROGRESSING TO THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AFTERNOON HEATING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS/ISO TSTMS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT 600 AM THIS MORNING FOR THE NC WATERS FOR BUILDING SEA HEIGHTS TO 4-6 FEET. IT IS LIKELY WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF GUSTS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SEVERAL EAST WAVE TRAINS IMPACTING THE WATERS. A BROADER SHELF BOTTOM OFF THE SC COAST WILL REDUCE THE LONGER PERIOD WAVE ENERGY AND AN ADVISORY IS NOT PLANNED FOR THE SC WATERS...ALTHOUGH AN "EXERCISE CAUTION" STATEMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF GUSTINESS OUTSIDE OF SUSTAINED WINDS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST THIS MORNING...SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO END SOMETIME INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS START OUT NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT BUT VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT. SPEEDS STARTING TO INCREASE WED MORNING AS GRADIENT BECOMES PINCHED. GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER WED AND WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SOUTH. 10 TO 15 KT WINDS ON WED INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT INTO WED BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW. SEAS MAY REACH 6 FT AS EARLY AS WED EVENING BUT SHOULD EXCEED 6 FT BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST. GRADIENT REMAINS PINCHED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE...EXCEEDING 20 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL RUN 5 TO 8 FT...HIGHEST IN WATERS OPEN TO NORTHEAST FLOW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ NEAR TERM...8 SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...III AVIATION...43/8  FXUS62 KILM 200723 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 323 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ELONGATE NORTH-TO-SOUTH TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...EVENTUALLY CLEAVING INTO TWO INDIVIDUAL PIECES TONIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS VERY WEAK AND STORM CELL MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW TODAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW IN THE SUMMER/TROPICAL RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ALMOST 10000 FEET OF WARM CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH (LCL AROUND 2500 FT VERSUS AN ENVIRONMENTAL FREEZING LEVEL OF 12500 FT) THERE IS A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATER TODAY. I DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE RADAR AND MESONET DATA SHOWS NEARLY 2.5 INCHES IN MECHANICSVILLE (DARLINGTON CO.) AND PERHAPS EVEN MORE JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH ALONG THE PEE DEE RIVER. MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT AREAS JUST EAST OF THE THIS AREA TODAY...TARGETING THE AREA FROM LUMBERTON...DILLON...MARION TO AYNOR. SHOWERS AND T-STORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH RADAR SHOWING MARINE CONVECTION NOW TROTTING ONSHORE FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTH THROUGH CAPE FEAR. ONCE THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE OCEAN BEHIND THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR OUT THESE SHOWERS WITH NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOPING INLAND. HIGHS SHOULD RISE TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 TODAY...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL ONSHORE FLOW. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE A RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS MAY STILL ADVECT NOCTURNAL MARINE CONVECTION ONSHORE SO THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40 PERCENT) WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT NEAR THE BEACHES...WITH LESSER CHANCES INLAND. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 66-69 FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT A DECREASING TREND IN CONVECTION WITH WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES AND SOME WEAK NVA BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE SUBSIDENCE WITH INCREASED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB...AND THIS IS ECHOED IN PWATS FALLING TO 1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW-CHC POP TUESDAY AND SCHC WEDNESDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WED ENDS UP BEING DRY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WILL RESPOND TO BULGING HEIGHTS...RISING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S TUESDAY INTO THE MID/UPR 80S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS...FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TO OCCUR DURING THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE CAROLINAS. BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE CAUSING INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. GFS HAS SPED UP TIMING OF FRONT CONSIDERABLY...WHICH DOESN'T MAKE A LOT OF SENSE BASED OFF RESTRICTIVE ANTECEDENT FLOW OF THE UPPER PATTERN...AND FAVOR THE SLOWER CMC/ECMWF WHICH HAS THE FROPA OCCURRING FRIDAY AFTN. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DRYING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WHILE OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE WKND...IT WILL BE MUCH DRIER...AND A BEAUTIFUL WKND APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...NIGHTTIME SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. MOISTURE FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CREATE IFR STRATUS IN FLO/LBT AFTER 08Z. ALONG THE COAST WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS... ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP NEAR HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER DAYBREAK...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AOB 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR CURRENT FCST HAVE KEPT IN VCSH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ALMOST 1000 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL ENSURE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARINE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE THE LARGEST THREATS. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3-4 FT AT THE CAPE FEAR AREA BUOYS IN A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SOUTH WIND WAVES. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS COMMON EACH DAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT TUESDAY WILL RISE TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. WHILE A DEAMPLIYFING SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A SOUTHERLY 5-6 SEC WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS TO START THE PERIOD WILL VEER THROUGH THURSDAY TO THE W/SW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST FRIDAY EVE WITH DECREASED SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT LATE FRIDAY THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/JDW  FXUS62 KILM 201041 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 641 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS WEEK. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HAVE LED TO FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DARLINGTON AND MARLBORO COUNTIES WHERE FLOOD ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED THIS MORNING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE ATLANTA RFC WAS EXCEEDED BY RADAR-ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS SEVERAL DRAINAGE BASINS NEAR THE PEE DEE RIVER...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM MONT CLARE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD BENNETTSVILLE. NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE YET BEEN RECEIVED...ALTHOUGH RADAR-ESTIMATED STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL OVER 5.5 INCHES IS INDICATED NEAR THE PEE DEE RIVER EAST OF SOCIETY HILL. THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS (06-08Z) FOCUS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS LUMBERTON...MARION... CONWAY...WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN...WHERE UPWARD OF 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS DEPICTED IN THE MODEL ACROSS A LARGE AREA. FORTUNATELY THESE LOCATIONS RECEIVED FAIRLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY WHICH MEANS A GOOD PORTION OF ANY NEW RAINFALL SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY SOIL RATHER THAN CONVERTING IMMEDIATELY TO RUNOFF. HIGH POPS (60-80 PERCENT) WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AFTERNOON. AT THE COAST SHOWERS HAVE SO BEEN GENERALLY LIGHTER WITH NO FLOODING CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AT THE COAST... THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEABREEZE SHOULD HELP CLEAR THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS OUT WITHIN 5-10 MILES OF THE BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ELONGATE NORTH-TO-SOUTH TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS...EVENTUALLY CLEAVING INTO TWO INDIVIDUAL PIECES TONIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ALOFT IS VERY WEAK AND STORM CELL MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW TODAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW IN THE SUMMER/TROPICAL RANGE OF 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING ALMOST 10000 FEET OF WARM CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH (LCL AROUND 2500 FT VERSUS AN ENVIRONMENTAL FREEZING LEVEL OF 12500 FT) THERE IS A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PERHAPS EVEN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING LATER TODAY. I DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE A RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. SOUTH WINDS MAY STILL ADVECT NOCTURNAL MARINE CONVECTION ONSHORE SO THE HIGHEST POPS (30-40 PERCENT) WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT NEAR THE BEACHES...WITH LESSER CHANCES INLAND. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO 66-69 FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BUT A DECREASING TREND IN CONVECTION WITH WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BUILDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES AND SOME WEAK NVA BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE SUBSIDENCE WITH INCREASED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB...AND THIS IS ECHOED IN PWATS FALLING TO 1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT WITH TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW-CHC POP TUESDAY AND SCHC WEDNESDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WED ENDS UP BEING DRY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WILL RESPOND TO BULGING HEIGHTS...RISING FROM THE LOW/MID 80S TUESDAY INTO THE MID/UPR 80S WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MAY THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS...FALLING ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...PATTERN CHANGE TO OCCUR DURING THE EXTENDED AS COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY...USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO THE CAROLINAS. BERMUDA HIGH AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE CAUSING INCREASED CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. GFS HAS SPED UP TIMING OF FRONT CONSIDERABLY...WHICH DOESN'T MAKE A LOT OF SENSE BASED OFF RESTRICTIVE ANTECEDENT FLOW OF THE UPPER PATTERN...AND FAVOR THE SLOWER CMC/ECMWF WHICH HAS THE FROPA OCCURRING FRIDAY AFTN. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT DRYING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WHILE OVERALL TEMPERATURE CHANGE WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER DURING THE WKND...IT WILL BE MUCH DRIER...AND A BEAUTIFUL WKND APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...NIGHTTIME SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. MOISTURE FROM THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CREATE IFR STRATUS IN FLO/LBT AFTER 08Z. ALONG THE COAST WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS... ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP NEAR HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTER DAYBREAK...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AOB 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS ALONG THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR CURRENT FCST HAVE KEPT IN VCSH GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING/OCCURRENCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 300 AM FOLLOWS... THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ALMOST 1000 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL ENSURE A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARINE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE THE LARGEST THREATS. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 3-4 FT AT THE CAPE FEAR AREA BUOYS IN A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SOUTH WIND WAVES. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KTS COMMON EACH DAY. SEAS OF 2-3 FT TUESDAY WILL RISE TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THANKS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. WHILE A DEAMPLIYFING SE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM...SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A SOUTHERLY 5-6 SEC WIND WAVE. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS TO START THE PERIOD WILL VEER THROUGH THURSDAY TO THE W/SW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS DURING FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE WEST FRIDAY EVE WITH DECREASED SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL RISE TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 2-4 FT LATE FRIDAY THANKS TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...TRA  FXUS62 KILM 291703 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 103 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ALMOST SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...CUMULUS CLOUD DEPTH CONTINUES TO THIN AS LCL HEIGHTS RISE BUT THE INVERSION ALOFT CONSTRAINS HOW TALL THE UPDRAFTS CAN REACH. RADAR HAS SHOWN NO METEOROLOGICAL ECHOES FOR A FEW HOURS NOW. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS SHOW THE SEABREEZE GAINING STRENGTH AND CLEARING CLOUDS OUT FROM THE BEACHES. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL SLOWLY MARCH INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 15 MPH ON THE BEACHES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE IS RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THIS HIGH IS MANIFEST IN AT LEAST THREE WAYS: A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDING LIGHT SYNOPTIC WINDS...A CONVECTIVE CAP BETWEEN 8000-10000 FT ALOFT...AND A VERY PRONOUNCED CLOCKWISE TURNING TO THE LOW CLOUD STREETS OFFSHORE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE CUMULUS ALONG THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION. RADAR IS ACTUALLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR BRUNSWICK COUNTY...BUT THESE SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED SINCE DEEPER MIXING WILL ACTUALLY SHRINK THE DEPTH OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THE BOTTOM UP AS THE UPDRAFTS SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PENETRATE VERY FAR INTO THE CONVECTIVE CAP ABOVE 850 MB. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RUN A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO +15C TO +16C. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST RANGES FROM THE UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 COUNTIES...WITH LOWER TO MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE BEACHES THEMSELVES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST SEABREEZE WINDS ADVECTING IN COOLER AIR FROM OFFSHORE. OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL WHICH IS HELPING MAKE THIS MAY A VERY MILD MONTH TEMPERATURE-WISE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT DICTATES CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS ADVERTISING CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY BUT THEN AGAIN IT HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S BOTH AFTERNOONS AND WITH DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY LOW...LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM RIDGING TO A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WPC FAVORS THE ECMWF BASED ON ITS CONTINUITY AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS INCREMENTALLY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE DAYS WHEN LOW AND MID LEVEL FORCING IS COUPLED. NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND THE DRY FORECAST SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 18Z...STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WEST OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO GO FOR SOME FOG...DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW STRATUS FLOATING AROUND TOWARD MORNING TOO...PARTICULARLY INLAND. THURSDAY...VFR WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR FOG THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY WEST. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 PM WEDNESDAY...THE SEABREEZE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS UNDER BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT LATE SPRING MARINE CONDITIONS. AIR AND WATER TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING MORE MILD BY THE DAY...AND SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES ARE NEARLY ZERO THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE A FAIRLY HEALTHY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SHORTLY AS MARINE TO INLAND AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL APPROACH 15 DEGREES F BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PUSH NEARSHORE WINDS UP TOWARD 12-15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH HANGING TOUGH TONIGHT WINDS SHOULD AGAIN DIE DOWN WITH LITTLE NOCTURNAL JETTING ANTICIPATED. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2-3 FT ON CAPE FEAR AREA BUOYS...EQUALLY SPLIT BETWEEN A SMALL 6 SECOND WIND WAVE AND A 9 SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH AN ACCELERATION EACH AFTERNOON VIA THE SEA BREEZE. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH 2-3 FEET FOR SIGNIFICANT SEAS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE ONLY DEVIATION FROM TYPICAL SUMMER LIKE PATTERN FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST. SPEEDS REMAIN IN A NOW FAMILIAR RANGE 10-15 KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE MOSTLY 2-3 FEET WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 2-4 FEET LATE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43/TRA  FXUS62 KILM 281929 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 329 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER LOW SITS WEST OF THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING OFFSHORE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL DRY CAP AND ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENTLY PREVENTING SBCAPES OF 3500-4500 FROM BEING UTILIZED AS WELL AS 1.70-1.9 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NC SW INTO WRN SC. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE CONVECTION MOVING EAST OUT OF THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS BEHAVES AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC SINCE VESTIGES OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL STILL RESIDE THERE. IF THIS CONVECTION DOES HOLD TOGETHER...THE STEERING FLOW BENEATH THE MASSIVE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES COULD GUIDE THE WORSE OR MAJORITY OF IT NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE COULD SEE THIS BUILD SOUTHWARD A BIT IF MID-LEVEL DRYING INCREASES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION OVER AL AND GA HAS INTRODUCED APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR AREA YET BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE TONIGHT...AND THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST POP VALUES WILL BE PLANNED FOR OUR AREA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP CELLS MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP OVERNIGHT HELPING TO OFFSET FLOOD POTENTIAL...BUT GROUNDS REMAIN SOGGY AND ANY CELL TRAINING COULD BRING WATER RETENTION PROBLEMS PRETTY QUICKLY IN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...JUNE IS GOING TO FINISH PRETTY MUCH HOW IT HAS BEEN ALL MONTH...WARM...HUMID...AND UNSETTLED. IN FACT...THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE EVEN WETTER THAN MOST OF THE DAYS THIS MONTH...AND THE LOCAL CLIMATE STATIONS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED ALL TIME-MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR JUNE BEFORE THE PERIOD COMES TO AN END. HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PATTERN AT 500MB PERSISTS AND AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE OH VLY. THIS AMPLIFICATION FORCES A STALL IN THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...AND DRIVES THE TROUGH BACK TO THE SW...CREATING HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF -3 SD'S ACROSS THE TN VLY. WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS DISPLACED WEST OF THE CAROLINAS...THIS KEEPS DEEP SW FLOW ONGOING IN THIS AREA...AND PWATS RISE TO 2 INCHES OR MORE...AROUND 2 SD'S ABOVE NORMAL. 5H TROUGH TO THE WEST WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE CAROLINAS CREATES AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN...BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AS WELL SUGGEST A VERY WET PERIOD AHEAD FOR THE WKND. 700MB TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA SHARPENS...KEEPING THE GOMEX WIDE OPEN AND HELPING TO ADVECT TREMENDOUS THETA-E RIDGING FROM 925MB THROUGH 700MB. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS LENGTHEN AND POINT RIGHT INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...WITH STREAMLINES SUGGESTING MORE AND MORE OF THAT GULF TAP. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...200MB JETTING INCREASES WITH THE SOUTHEAST ALIGNING BENEATH THE RRQ WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVES TO HELP DRIVE LIFT OVER THE AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE EXTREME...MLCAPE OF 800-1200 J/KG WITH LI'S AROUND -4...AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE THANKS TO 13000-14000 FT OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH...ENOUGH LIFT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS EVEN THOUGH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT BOTH DAYS. SO THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AN EXTENDED WET PERIOD...AND WPC HAS 1-3" OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS A REGION THAT HAS SEEN 150-300% OF NORMAL RAINFALL THE PAST TWO WEEKS...SO ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE CHOSEN TO HOLD OFF ON ANY AREAL FLOOD WATCHES SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD...MEANING CWA-BASIN RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCHES AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP DEVELOPS IN TIME. ONE FINAL NOTE ABOUT THE UPCOMING RAINFALL. THE CLIMATE STATIONS OF FLORENCE, SC AND WILMINGTON, NC ARE BOTH APPROACHING MONTHLY RECORDS FOR JUNE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE RECORDS ARE ECLIPSED BEFORE JULY BEGINS: AT WILMINGTON...10.34" HAS FALLEN SO FAR...2.53" BEHIND THE JUNE RECORD OF 12.87" (1962). AT FLORENCE...7.89" HAS FALLEN THIS MONTH...1.30" BEHIND THE RECORD OF 9.29" (1961). SW WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS WARM...BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S BOTH AFTNS...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY WITHIN SHOWERS/TSTMS. LOWS AT NIGHT WILL FALL TO 70 OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH MEANS A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. WPC HAS LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH LOWER VALUES FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE PATTERN WITH SLIGHT RIDGING BUILDING IN WHICH WARRANTS A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN POPS. WITH THE PATTERN CHANGING LITTLE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STABLE WITH HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE FOR THE SAME REASON. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD...DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER LOW CIGS TOOK LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER OUT. FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS CONTINUE WITH ANTICIPATION OF GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND EVEN HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER STORMS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN ITS LATER INITIATION PERIOD...LATER THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEFORE DAYBREAK...COULD SEE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ESPECIALLY AT KLBT...THUS HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE IN GOING FORECAST. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ON SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH GUSTY SW WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FOOT SEAS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. ADD TO THIS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TSTMS OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL BE A TREACHEROUS PERIOD ON THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 6-7 SECONDS. MARINERS PLYING EVEN THE INSHORE WATERS AND ICWW SHOULD CHECK RADAR BEFORE CONSIDERING VENTURING OUT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME INTO NEXT WEEK. LARGE BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED INLAND...WILL KEEP A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THIS DRIVES SW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS SATURDAY...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THESE WINDS...AND 4-7 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD TSTMS BOTH DAYS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAINFALL...CAUSING SEVERELY RESTRICTED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...STEADY STATE CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL COMMUNITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS PROBABLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE. PATTERN WEAKENS EVER SO SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH TRANSLATES TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS 3-5 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO A SCEC HEADLINE IS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS DROP TO 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MJC/SGL MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK  FXUS62 KILM 070530 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 130 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE MONDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION INTO THE LIKELY (60-70 PERCENT) RANGE. SHOWERS ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE CHARLESTON VICINITY WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ALSO MADE LARGE INCREASES TO FORECAST SKY COVER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS... STREAMER TYPE CONVECTION FROM OFF THE ATL WATERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS A RESULT OF THE SE-S ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO FIRE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AND ONSHORE. WITH THE DAYS INSOLATION OVERWITH...THE ACTIVITY THAT MOVES ONSHORE WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN ITS INTENSITY LET ALONE ITS INTEGRITY AS IT PROGRESSES FURTHER INLAND. THIS CURRENTLY IS BEING PLAYED OUT AS ONE LOOPS THE KLTX AND SURROUNDING RADARS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT LTG REMAINS LACKING...THE ACTIVITY OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS WILL HAVE INCREASING AND DEEPER INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AS ACTIVITY PASSES OVER SSTS THAT ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR THUNDER TO OCCUR...AND POSSIBLY REACH AND PUSH ONSHORE LATER OVERNIGHT. NO PRONOUNCED UPPER S/W TROF OR VORT TO AFFECT THE FA OVERNITE THAT WOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO FURTHER PROMOTE THUNDER. THIS IS NOT PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO OCCUR UNTIL DAYTIME MONDAY WHILE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CAPE MANIFESTS ACROSS THE FA TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY AS EXHIBITED BY THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN...TO AT-LEAST MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OVERALL...POPS ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 50 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD 70+ SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FA. DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A DOWNWARD OR DECREASING TREND OVERNITE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 70 TO 75 DEGREE LOWS FOR TONIGHT...WHICH IS NEARLY 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MUST BE GLOBAL WARMING AGAIN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO TREND TO A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD MOSTLY AS A RESULT OF MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE EVENTS FOR TUESDAY. THE 1200 UTC GFS AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A MID LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF IN THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL BE A RATHER WET AND RAW DAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 10-15 MPH. THE LACK OF SATURATION IN THE 305K LAYER AND MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT...WINDS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY LIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY KEEP QPF VALUES MODEST. HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAY WANT TO INCREASE POPS ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE COLUMN SHOWS BETTER SATURATION IN THIS LAYER. AS FOR THE EVENTS MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS WARRANTED WITH THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MOVING ACROSS MONDAY EVENING. MAINTAINED THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THE SAME TEMPORAL TRENDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY NO LONGER LOOKING DRY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK AND CROSSES THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL COPIOUS/DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AS THE THE MONDAY COLD FRONT ONLY SEEMS TO REMOVE THE SURFACE MOISTURE. THE UPPER SYSTEM INDUCES A WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WELL OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY BUT ITS LOCATION IS NOT AGREED UPON BY VARIOUS GUIDANCE. INTERESTINGLY THE EC DOESN'T REALLY DEVELOP A WAVE BUT STILL HAS QPF AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ATOP THE WEDGE. WILL INTRODUCE LOW CHC POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AS BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOUTHWARD SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH OCCUPY OUR LONGITUDE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT OUR WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE EVENTUALLY BEARS A LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THAT RETROGRADES AND MAY BRING SOME WEEKEND POPS. FOR NOW THIS LOOKS JUST ANOMALOUS ENOUGH TO CAP POPS AT SLIGHT. THE EC ALSO SHOWS SOME ATLANTIC DEVELOPMENT BUT NOT THE RETROGRADING MOTION. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 06Z...BAND OF SHOWERS EMANATING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR CHARLESTON WILL AFFECT FLORENCE AND LUMBERTON EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE TRANSIENT LOW CEILINGS NEAR MODERATE RAINFALL. AT FLORENCE THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF SUB-1000 FOOT CEILINGS THROUGH 09Z...WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF IFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK. AT LUMBERTON IFR PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER BUT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. FOR THE COASTAL AIRPORTS (ILM, MYR, CRE) THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST...WITH GENERALLY VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHRA TO OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMS DURING THE DAYTIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH KFLO/KLBT AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KTS FOLLOWING FROPA. BY 06Z TUESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE. WILL HOLD ONTO VCSH AT ALL TERMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1100 PM FOLLOWS... LATEST PIER AND BUOY OBS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS INDICATE WINDS ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND. WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS...WITH SE-S BEING ADVERTISED INSTEAD OF INDICATING A SSE WIND DIRECTION. LATEST HRRR SFC WIND OUTPUT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS CONTINUES WITH 10-15 KT...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANT SEAS RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS AT 3 TO 5 FT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. BUILDING WIND DRIVEN WAVES AT 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL ESE 9 TO 11 SECOND PERIOD GROUND SWELL WILL PROVIDE NO AID FOR INCREASING THE SIG. SEAS. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE MARINE COMMUNITY WILL SEE RATHER CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS INITIALLY. THIS FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND 0600 UTC TUESDAY WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY 1200 TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL TO 15-20 KNOTS BY THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS ARE 3-5 FEET EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A DECREASE MONDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY TO POSSIBLY SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LONG DURATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS TO PRODUCE A MODERATE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG COLD FRONT STALLED WELL OFFSHORE BUT ITS LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MODULATE THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT AND HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT PINCH AND WHETHER OR NOT WELL NEED ANY HEADLINES OR EVEN BORDERLINE AND SHORT-LIVED ADVISORY OUT ALONG FRYING PAN SHOALS. WHEREVER THIS LOW DEVELOPS...IT WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR/TRA  FXUS62 KILM 121913 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 313 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH...BECOMING A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINNING TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES WILL DRIFT IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE CONTINUING TO FILL THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SET-UP WILL CONTINUE THE PRESENT MOIST LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NC COUNTIES...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACTUALLY INCREASING AND THICKENING OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS SOUTH. GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING FROM THIS EVOLUTION...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT FOR OUR NC COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS...SO WILL AGAIN GO ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TONIGHT. THIS GIVES US LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL FINALLY COME UNHINGED EARLY SUNDAY. RATHER THAN GO DO SOMETHING CRIMINAL...THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIMPLY DRIFT SOUTH AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARKED JUST EAST OF HATTERAS. THE REASON FOR THIS PECULIAR MOTION IS A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL HOLD THE UPPER SYSTEM IN PLACE WHILE 1032 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO MAINE INCREASES NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. FOR THE CAROLINAS THIS MEANS HUMID AND LARGELY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS A HEAVILY MARITIME-INFLUENCED AIRMASS ADVECTS SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE AREA. SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOW THE CLOUD DEPTH EXCEEDING 5000 FEET AT TIMES EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR DRIZZLE WHERE SURFACE RH > 90 PERCENT...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN TOO AS THERE SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K THETA SURFACE...VERY NEAR THE 900 MB OR 3000 FOOT LEVEL. SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS THE .01 INCH QPF CONTOUR INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY BUT OTHERWISE SHOWS LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE AREA. FOR MOST AREAS THIS SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE/ SPRINKLE EVENT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. GFS MOS HAS HAD ITS PROBLEMS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN WILMINGTON... RUNNING UP A +4 DEGREE BIAS OVER THE PAST FIVE DAYS AND A +6 DEGREE BIAS OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. MODEL BIAS HAS NOT BEEN NEARLY AS BAD DOWN IN MYRTLE BEACH OR INLAND IN LBT/FLO. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY...MY FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY BELOW MOS FORECASTS AND CLOSER TO MODEL-SOUNDING DERIVED NUMBERS: 74-78 SUNDAY AND 72-75 MONDAY. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD INHIBIT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND I AM ON THE HIGH END OF MOS BOTH NIGHTS: 62-66 SUNDAY NIGHT AND 57-62 MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL FINALLY BE KICKED OUT AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CAROLINAS IN A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY AND RELATIVELY WARM FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT UNTIL FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE BOUNDARY. UNTIL THEN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. POPS REMAIN IN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH VALUES REMAINING UNIMPRESSIVE TOPPING OUT AT LOW CHANCE FRIDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...PESKY MVFR STRATUS WILL HANG AROUND AT THE LBT AND ILM...PERHAPS INTERMITTENTLY SCATTERING TO A HIGHER STRATOCU CEILING THROUGH THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD...KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS RETURNING TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR STRATUS AT ALL TERMINALS SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING SLOWLY. A SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE LATE...PROBABLY AFTER THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE NOW QUITE LIGHT...IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE...WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE LOW DRIFTING SOUTH. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP SEAS CAPPED AT 2 FT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH SOME 3 FOOTERS POSSIBLE 20 NM OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS SHOULD WEAKEN AND SINK SOUTH AS AN OPEN WAVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OUR WINDS SHOULD STILL INCREASE AS 1032 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SURGES SOUTH THROUGH MAINE AND INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED 6-7 DEGREES OVER THE PAST 10 DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT HEAT IN THE OCEAN TO PROMOTE GOOD VERTICAL MIXING INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS MONDAY. MY CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS AND BRINGS SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A SOLID 5 FEET IN OPEN WATERS. IF THE 12Z NAM ALONE IS TO BE BELIEVED I SHOULD TACK ON ANOTHER 5 KNOTS AND 1-2 FEET TO WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS MONDAY. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GREET MARINERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS INLAND. IN FACT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT DECREASE FROM INITIAL VALUES OF 15-20 KNOTS TO AROUND TEN KNOTS WEDNESDAY. A TRANSITION WILL OCCUR THURSDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SHAPING UP SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE DAY TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM FROM 3-5 FEET EARLY TUESDAY TO 1-2 FEET THURSDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL  FXUS62 KILM 131910 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 310 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN CREATE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND INTO LATE-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MAINLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED A BIT WITH INCREASED MIXING AND WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RADAR INDICATES POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCANTY PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MOVING SW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO RECENT SURFACE OBS CONFIRM THIS. AMAZINGLY PERSISTENT YET WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DROPPED SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW POSITIONED WELL EAST OF CAPE FEAR. AS A RESULT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED A BIT AND NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW A BIT HIGHER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED. THIS HAS HELPED TO INCREASE MIXING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND RAISE CEILINGS UP TO AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THE OFFSHORE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST AND FROM THE NE. MODEST AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CEILINGS DROP LOWER. BEST CHANCES REMAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT ANY ONE LOCATION COULD SEE A SPRINKLE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH FOR THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS...SO WILL AGAIN GO ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MODEL CONSENSUS FOR TONIGHT. THIS GIVES US LOWS IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME A SEEMINGLY PERMANENT FIXTURE JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND IS RIDGING DOWN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND SHOULD MAINTAIN NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR UNDERCUTTING WHAT WAS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE YESTERDAY...AND THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST AS A TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT CLOUDS WITH SPITS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL IN PARTICULAR HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE WEATHER ON MONDAY. INTERMITTENT WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K SURFACE (ABOUT 3000 FT AGL OR ABOUT 920 MB PRESSURE LEVEL) SHOULD PRODUCE MAINLY NON-ACCUMULATING DRIZZLE AND SPRINKLES OUT OF CLOUDS 3000 FEET THICK. CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REDEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES TO NEAR 4000 FEET. BY TUESDAY THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ALMOST VANISHES WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINING...ALTHOUGH I CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK. GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK BETTER THAN THE NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH I STILL FAVOR OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...MOST OF THE PERIOD FOR OUR AREA WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY A BROAD AND RATHER WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS. OUT OF PHASE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND NORTHERN MIDWESTERN STATES EVENTUALLY AMALGAMATE AND THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NORTH WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...AN INITIAL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR LOWER CHANCE POPS. THIS FRONT WILL FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES STALL ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. FORCING AND MOISTURE RETURN ARE BOTH UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE PW HIGHEST THURSDAY WITH LITTLE FORCING. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY WITH A SMALL INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE WANES. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN BASICALLY INTACT WITH WARM VALUES FOR THE WORKWEEK STEPPING BACK ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...CEILINGS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED. RADAR INDICATES A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT DRIZZLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS LOWERING DIURNALLY TO IFR...PROBABLY BETWEEN 04-07Z. THE NAM INDICATES AN IMPULSE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...CALLING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN. THINK IT WILL BE MORE LIKE MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED LOWER IF THIS MATERIALIZES. MONDAY...ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH DRIZZLE CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 14Z...WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER THAT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFFSHORE TRACKS SW PARALLEL TO THE COAST. WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED AND ARE NOW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 2 FT AT PRESENT TO 3 TO 5 FT OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FEEDING A STEADY NORTHEAST WIND DOWN THE U.S. EAST COAST. TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST THAT UNTIL YESTERDAY WAS VERTICALLY ATTACHED TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STILL SWIRLING JUST EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING...LASTING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY. WHAT IS NOT CLEAR YET IS JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BECOME. THE LAST BIG COASTAL STORM A WEEK AGO OCCURRED WHILE OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES WERE 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE HAVE NOW. IT ALSO HAD ACCESS TO COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES WHICH INTENSIFIED THE DIFFERENCE FROM SEA TO AIR TEMPERATURES. HEAT COMING OUT OF THE OCEAN DURING THE LAST STORM HELP MIX STRONG WINDS DOWN FROM ALOFT... CREATING GALE-FORCE WINDS LOCALLY. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE CASE IN THIS EVENT SINCE AIR AND SEA TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES DIFFERENCE. IN TERMS OF MODEL PREFERENCE...THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN. THE NAM IN PARTICULAR APPEARS SUSPICIOUS WITH ITS WINDS CONTINUOUSLY VEERED TOO FAR CLOCKWISE IN COMPARISON WITH ITS 06Z RUN OR WITH ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THROUGH THE PIEDMONT REGION...EVEN THE GFS APPEARS TO TOO WEAK WITH WIND SPEEDS. THEREFORE I HAVE INCREASED THE GFS WINDS BY AROUND 5 KNOTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS (WINDS AND SEAS) MONDAY LASTING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS LOOK WEAKLY FORCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF WEAKENING FRONTS APPROACH WITH ONE MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS. INITIALLY WEAK WINDS FROM THE NORTH WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY. WINDS ONCE AGAIN TURN FROM THE NORTH BUT THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THIS FRONT MAKES THE DIRECTIONAL FORECAST OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH ALL OF THE PERIOD ARE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2-4 FEET LATE THURSDAY WITH THE FIRST FRONT. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL  FXUS62 KILM 141407 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1007 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN CREATE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND INTO LATE-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...CLOUDS COVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST ALONG THE COAST...NOT TOO UNEXPECTED GIVEN MODEL INDICATIONS OF A CLOUD DEPTH OF BARELY 1500 FEET OVER ILM. FARTHER INLAND THE CLOUDS ARE QUITE A BIT THICKER...UPWARDS OF 5000 FEET OVER LUMBERTON...AND DRIZZLE WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS. ASOS/AWOS SYSTEMS CANNOT RELIABLY REPORT DRIZZLE...SO VISIBILITY IS OFTEN THE BETTER CLUE TO DISCERN WHERE DRIZZLE IS FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH (IF ANY) SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH THE OVERCAST TODAY. THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY REASONABLY MILD CONSIDERING 850/925 MB TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN 30 MINUTES OF SUNSHINE WOULD QUICKLY ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE THINNING ALONG THE COAST I HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AN AVERAGE OF 2 DEGREES TO 74-76. FEW IF ANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE IT APPEARS THICK LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DO WELL TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING DRIZZLE/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN INLAND I HAVE CUT BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN IS BECOMING TIED UP WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ONE OF SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE DECAYING UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL PARKED OFF THE NC COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... A TROUGH RESIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FURTHER DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO TUE MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FURTHER N ALONG THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHWARD RIDGING WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TUE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NE FLOW. NE WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES... GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AND AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT THE BEACHES. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY OR AT LEAST PREDOMINANTLY SO. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A MOIST COLUMN BELOW 5-6 KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME CLOUDS AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL MINIMUMS...LOWER TO MID 60S. A MORE DIFFICULT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO MIGRATE IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OFFSHORE AND THERE WERE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODEST HEATING...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE COAST...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM EYF AND CPC TO MYR TODAY WHERE THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. FURTHER W...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SPOTTY AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HARD TO COME BY. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES TICK HIGHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED FROM THE N AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL FROM LOW STRATUS. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RARE TONIGHT AND POPS WILL REFLECT THIS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR BROAD 5H RIDGING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...SURFACE REFLECTION DOES AS WELL...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO LESSEN. WHILE COOL/MOIST NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST...TUESDAY WILL STILL END UP A NICER DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE EVEN AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. DURING WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. WHILE THICKNESSES WILL NEVER BECOME TOO IMPRESSIVE...SURFACE RESPONSE TO THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM SW FLOW AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE...CREATING...FINALLY...MORE SEASONABLE FALL WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND CLIMO...MID 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS MAX TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 60...AS COOLING IS INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE GFS DRAGS THIS FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT HANGING UP ACROSS THE COAST...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO THE WKND AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED TO FEATURE BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS LESS LIKELY THANKS TO BOUNDARY-PARALLEL FLOW. THUS...HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF AND WILL SHOW LOW-CHC/SCHC POP THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...EVEN AS QPF POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS/SHOWERS TEMPER WHAT OTHERWISE COULD BE VERY WARM BASED OFF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 12Z...WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE IS NEVERTHELESS PRODUCING CONVECTION OFFSHORE. THE SHOWERS MAY WORK IN AS FAR AS BALD HEAD ISLAND...BUT WILL NOT BE A FACTOR THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART. MODERATE SOLAR INSOLATION COULD FIRE UP ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH AT THIS TIME. GRADIENT IS PRETTY TIGHT...WITH A STEADY 12 KTS ALREADY THIS MORNING. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PERHAPS BECOMING VFR OR SCATTERING ALTOGETHER...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. AN IFR CEILING MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WIND OR WAVE FORECASTS THIS MORNING. WINDS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 06Z NAM MODEL INDICATED AND ARE EVEN A KNOT OR TWO STRONGER THAN THE 06Z GFS...BUT OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD BIAS THAT INCORPORATED! NEARSHORE CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE BENIGN BUT 20-25 KNOT WINDS STILL NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN INLAND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WATERS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PERSISTENT NE FLOW HAS ALREADY ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SHADOWED WATERS OF LONG BAY...WHERE THE FETCH IS SEVERELY RESTRICTED ON NE WINDS...SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFFSHORE...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST...COMBINE TO CONTINUE GUSTY NE WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS TUESDAY MORNING DRIVE WIND-WAVES UP TO 4-6 FT...THUS THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2PM TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME...LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO SLOWLY EASE THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY DE-AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-3 FT. GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-3 FT...WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL BECOMING PREDOMINANT WITHIN THE SPECTRUM. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TO START THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING SW AROUND 10 KTS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...BUT WILL THEN BACK ONCE AGAIN TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AS THE FRONT WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF UPTICK TO 3-4 FT IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SW WIND CHOP DEVELOPS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL  FXUS62 KILM 141641 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1240 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN CREATE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND INTO LATE-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...FORECAST IS UNFOLDING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. WILMINGTON HAS BEEN AS WARM AS 76 DEGREES SO FAR AND MIGHT EEK OUT ONE MORE DEGREE BEFORE FALLING BACK THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS WEST OF I-95 BASED ON VISIBILITY OBS AND EVEN THIS SHOULD END IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS AS TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE INCREASE. EAST OF I-95 I HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT RENEWED DRIZZLE/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... CLOUDS COVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING AS MOIST NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A FEW THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST ALONG THE COAST...NOT TOO UNEXPECTED GIVEN MODEL INDICATIONS OF A CLOUD DEPTH OF BARELY 1500 FEET OVER ILM. FARTHER INLAND THE CLOUDS ARE QUITE A BIT THICKER...UPWARDS OF 5000 FEET OVER LUMBERTON...AND DRIZZLE WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN COVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR AREAS. ASOS/AWOS SYSTEMS CANNOT RELIABLY REPORT DRIZZLE...SO VISIBILITY IS OFTEN THE BETTER CLUE TO DISCERN WHERE DRIZZLE IS FALLING. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH (IF ANY) SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH THE OVERCAST TODAY. THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY REASONABLY MILD CONSIDERING 850/925 MB TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN 30 MINUTES OF SUNSHINE WOULD QUICKLY ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE THINNING ALONG THE COAST I HAVE RAISED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BY AN AVERAGE OF 2 DEGREES TO 74-76. FEW IF ANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR WHERE IT APPEARS THICK LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL DO WELL TO SNEAK INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THE ONGOING DRIZZLE/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN INLAND I HAVE CUT BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS IT APPEARS MOST OF THE RAIN IS BECOMING TIED UP WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON. THIS IS ONE OF SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE DECAYING UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL PARKED OFF THE NC COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... A TROUGH RESIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE CAPE FEAR. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WAS RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FURTHER DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO TUE MORNING. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FURTHER N ALONG THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REINFORCE THE SOUTHWARD RIDGING WITH A WEDGE SIGNATURE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AND TUE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT AND MOIST NE FLOW. NE WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES... GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 MPH AND AS HIGH AS 30 MPH AT THE BEACHES. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY OR AT LEAST PREDOMINANTLY SO. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A MOIST COLUMN BELOW 5-6 KFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LOWER TO MID 70S. THESE SAME CLOUDS AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL MINIMUMS...LOWER TO MID 60S. A MORE DIFFICULT FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO MIGRATE IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOWERS WERE LOCATED OFFSHORE AND THERE WERE EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODEST HEATING...INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE COAST...HIGHEST ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM EYF AND CPC TO MYR TODAY WHERE THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. FURTHER W...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE SPOTTY AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HARD TO COME BY. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DOES TICK HIGHER AS HIGH PRESSURE IS REINFORCED FROM THE N AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO FALL FROM LOW STRATUS. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RARE TONIGHT AND POPS WILL REFLECT THIS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY AND WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR BROAD 5H RIDGING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY...SURFACE REFLECTION DOES AS WELL...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO LESSEN. WHILE COOL/MOIST NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE DOWN THE COAST...TUESDAY WILL STILL END UP A NICER DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE EVEN AS LOW CLOUDS PERSIST. DURING WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...THE RESULT OF UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. WHILE THICKNESSES WILL NEVER BECOME TOO IMPRESSIVE...SURFACE RESPONSE TO THIS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM SW FLOW AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE...CREATING...FINALLY...MORE SEASONABLE FALL WEATHER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. TEMPS TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND CLIMO...MID 70S...WITH A FEW UPPER 70S POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AS MAX TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND 60...AS COOLING IS INHIBITED BY CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE GFS DRAGS THIS FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE DURING FRIDAY...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT HANGING UP ACROSS THE COAST...KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED INTO THE WKND AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN EXPECTED TO FEATURE BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS LESS LIKELY THANKS TO BOUNDARY-PARALLEL FLOW. THUS...HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF AND WILL SHOW LOW-CHC/SCHC POP THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED...EVEN AS QPF POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS/SHOWERS TEMPER WHAT OTHERWISE COULD BE VERY WARM BASED OFF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...INLAND TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN ALL DAY TO COME UP. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT THE COAST. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AS MODELS SEEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. FLO AND LBT WILL LIKELY GO DOWN FIRST WITH THE COAST FOLLOWING 2-3 HOURS LATER. INLAND TERMINALS ALSO STAND THE BETTER CHANCE OF PICKING UP SOME LIGHT FOG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT IFR FOG. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST AGAIN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1240 PM MONDAY...BASED ON WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM PIERS AND MESONET SITES NEAR THE BEACHES I HAVE INCREASED NEARSHORE WINDS BY A FEW KNOTS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 AM FOLLOWS... VERY FEW CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO WIND OR WAVE FORECASTS THIS MORNING. WINDS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY ARE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE 06Z NAM MODEL INDICATED AND ARE EVEN A KNOT OR TWO STRONGER THAN THE 06Z GFS...BUT OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY HAD BIAS THAT INCORPORATED! NEARSHORE CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE BENIGN BUT 20-25 KNOT WINDS STILL NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 600 AM FOLLOWS... THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN INLAND RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WATERS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PERSISTENT NE FLOW HAS ALREADY ALLOWED SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR THESE LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. ACROSS THE SHADOWED WATERS OF LONG BAY...WHERE THE FETCH IS SEVERELY RESTRICTED ON NE WINDS...SEAS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFFSHORE...AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE COAST...COMBINE TO CONTINUE GUSTY NE WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY. NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS TUESDAY MORNING DRIVE WIND-WAVES UP TO 4-6 FT...THUS THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 2PM TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME...LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO SLOWLY EASE THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY DE-AMPLIFYING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-3 FT. GRADIENT RELAXES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...CREATING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1-3 FT...WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL BECOMING PREDOMINANT WITHIN THE SPECTRUM. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS TO START THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE WEAK GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THURSDAY...BUT THESE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING SW AROUND 10 KTS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS EARLY FRIDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...BUT WILL THEN BACK ONCE AGAIN TO THE SW DURING FRIDAY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AS THE FRONT WAVERS NEAR THE AREA. SEAS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A BRIEF UPTICK TO 3-4 FT IS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SW WIND CHOP DEVELOPS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL  FXUS62 KILM 141905 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 305 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS BEEN HERE FOR ABOUT A WEEK NOW. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING WITHIN IT. ONE CIRCULATION OUT NEAR 32N/73W ALMOST LOOKS LIKE A MINI-TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHILE A SECOND LOW ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SC HAS HAD QUITE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW CLOUD COVER STILL IN PLACE. AS THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST SHIFTS SOUTH AND THE OFFSHORE "FUNNY" LOW BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM...OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH...PULLING AIR CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT CONCERNS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS. THE MODELS MAY HAVE AN INITIALIZATION PROBLEM WITH REGARDS TO HOW MUCH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN VA AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. WHILE NOT AS CLOUDY AS WE ARE...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE PRESENT UP THERE BELOW 3500 FT AGL AS SHOWN ON THE 12Z WALLOPS ISLAND VA SOUNDING AND GRAPHICALLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A RESULT MY FORECAST REMAINS CLOUDIER LATE TONIGHT THAN THE MODELS WOULD INDICATE. MY FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO NEAR THE WARMER NAM MOS NUMBERS WHICH IS UP TO FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE BEING DETECTED ON RADAR NOW AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEAT AND DESTABILIZATION. WHERE THE SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY RISES BACK ABOVE 85-90 PERCENT AND CLOUD DEPTH REMAINS ABOVE 2000 FEET... AREAS OF DRIZZLE SHOULD REDEVELOP...BUT MAY BE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN WE LAST LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL POKE INTO THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY IN BETWEEN LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM FROM GREAT LAKES TO ROCKIES AND WEAKENING SYSTEM OFF EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL STILL BE THE LAST REMNANTS OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS COULD VERY WELL MEAN ANOTHER DAY WHERE THE AREA STAYS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO SEE THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COMPONENT VANISH. NOT LOOKING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED OFFSHORE AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTENING WILL BE UNDERWAY. WILL SHOW A TREND TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY...THE HIGHER END OF PARTLY CLOUDY PERCENTAGE-WISE WITH SKY COVER IN THE 60S...STILL MORE SUN THAN RECENT DAYS. THE EXTRA BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE FEATURES AT LEAST FOR THE CAROLINAS INCLUDE A SERIES OF FRONTS...THE FIRST OF WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND COMES TO A HALT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS KEEPS POPS IN THE FORECAST AREA WIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SATURDAY SEES A LULL AS THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT AND ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BUT SATURDAY COULD VERY WELL TURN OUT DRY. THESE POPS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MONDAY BEING DRY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH VERY WARM VALUES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A CONSIDERABLE COOL DOWN BY THE NEW WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 18Z...INLAND TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN ALL DAY TO COME UP. GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...STRONGEST AT THE COAST. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AS MODELS SEEM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. FLO AND LBT WILL LIKELY GO DOWN FIRST WITH THE COAST FOLLOWING 2-3 HOURS LATER. INLAND TERMINALS ALSO STAND THE BETTER CHANCE OF PICKING UP SOME LIGHT FOG WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT IFR FOG. CEILINGS WILL SCATTER FAIRLY QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST AGAIN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS SENDING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS DOWN THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST INTO FLORIDA. AN INVERTED TROUGH NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING THROUGH IT. ONE CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SC HAS BEEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FOR US TODAY AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDE HAS HELPED PRODUCE 25 KNOT WINDS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS LATE...WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. SEAS ARE JUST ABOUT AS HIGH AS THEY'RE GOING TO GET GIVEN THIS FETCH...SO LOOK FOR A SLOW SUBSIDING TREND IN SEA HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN POSTED INTO TUESDAY. SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF MODERATELY PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT AND MEANDERING LOW WEAKENS WELL OFF THE COAST AS DOES THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAD BEEN BUILDING IN FROM POINTS NORTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRING AT 18Z ON TUESDAY APPEARS A LITTLE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE IS ALWAYS MORE VALUE IN CONSISTENCY AND STAYING THE COURSE RATHER THAN SHORTENING AN ADVISORY ONLY TO THEN HAVE IT CHANGED/LENGTHENED AGAIN SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT AS-IS. AS THE OVERLAND HIGH WEAKENS AND THE OFFSHORE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FLOW WILL WEAKEN IN SPEED AND BACK/TURN COUNTERCLOCKWISE IN DIRECTION. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN QUITE A WHILE. WIND AND WAVES GENERALLY APPEAR MINIMAL FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND NIGHT. LONG TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TURNING TO NORTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS. THE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL STRUGGLE TO BUILD VIA THE WEAKER WINDS AND CHANGEABLE DIRECTIONS. EXPECT 1-3 FEET AT THE MOST. && .COASTAL FLOODING/TIDES... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...TIDAL ANOMALIES ALONG THE BEACHES ARE NEAR +1.0 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AS MEASURED AT NOAA TIDE GAUGES IN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND MYRTLE BEACH. WHEN ADDED TO THE PREDICTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WATER LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ESTABLISHED COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS BY ABOUT 0.25 FEET. ALONG THE LOWER CAPE FEAR RIVER AT DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON WHERE THE CURRENT TIDAL ANOMALY IS +0.85 FEET IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE A MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EVENT THIS EVENING WITH WATER LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5.7 FEET MLLW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA  FXUS62 KILM 151858 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 258 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN STALL IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL GET SHOVED TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...A BEAUTIFUL SWIRL OF CUMULUS CLOUDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MARKS THE CENTER OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32.3N/72.6W. A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT FOLLOWS THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS FROM PENNSYLVANIA SOUTH INTO GEORGIA. ATLANTIC MOISTURE CIRCLING THE LOW IS SUSTAINING YET ANOTHER DAY OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND NEAR AND WEST OF I-95 SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. EARLIER THIS MORNING THERE WERE ONLY TWO MODELS THAT HAD A CLUE HOW PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUDS WOULD BE ALONG THE COAST TODAY: THE 06Z NAM AND THE 12-15Z RUNS OF THE RUC. AFTER INGESTING THE 12Z SOUNDING AND SATELLITE DATA MOST MODELS NOW SEE HOW EXPANSIVE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SKIES WILL UNFORTUNATELY REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUD DEPTH EXCEEDS 2500 FEET. FOR THE GRAND STRAND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. FARTHER INLAND WHERE SUNSHINE IS PRESENTLY BEING ENJOYED...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH SKIES BECOMING VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. AS WE HAVE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE PAST 8 DAYS OF HUMID CLOUDY WEATHER...NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE CONSISTENTLY WARMER THAN GFS OR NAM MOS NUMBERS WOULD INDICATE...MUCH CLOSER TO A RAW MODEL/ SOUNDING-DERIVED TECHNIQUE. FIVE-DAY BIASES FROM THE GFS AND NAM MOS RANGE FROM -3 TO -6 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. FOR THESE REASONS MY FORECAST LOWS ARE WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...SOMEWHAT ENIGMATIC CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE RAMIFICATIONS TO HIGH TEMPERATURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND BUT THE LONG-SEEN NE SFC AND BL FLOW WILL TURN GRADUALLY TO SWRLY. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS OCCURS IS NOT AGREED UPON BY GUIDANCE BUT FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY QUICKER WRF. THAT SAID THE LL MOISTURE MAY BE FREE TO SLOSH AROUND A BIT AND THE COAST MAY NOT BE SO FAVORED FOR CLOUDINESS AS SEEN TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE OVERALL TOO SO FAVORING A GENERAL UPPER BOUND OF PARTLY CLOUDY AREA-WIDE. ASSUMING THIS HOLDS MOST PLACES SHOULD WARM TO MID 70S BUT ANY AREA WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST WILL BE HELD LOWER. NO RAIN CHANCES WITH MID VERY DRY LAYER AROUND 700MB SHOWING UP FCST SOUNDINGS. THURSDAY IS WHEN THE MOISTURE BECOMES NO LONGER CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS. A PRE-FRONTAL DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE EFFECTIVE IN TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE UP THE COASTAL PLAIN. RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT IN ASSOC WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. ANY FORCING APPEARS WEAK AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS SO RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY PRETTY SMALL AND QPF PROSPECTS MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A STALLED FRONT AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. BROAD 5H TROUGH OVER MUCH OF LOWER 48 WILL MAINTAIN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED IN THE AREA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...SITTING ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST AND LAYING PARALLEL TO STEERING FLOW. A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT MAINTAINING THE THREAT OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR THE MOST PART SCATTERED...AMPLE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR LATE SUN/EARLY MON AS MID LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. THESE 2 EVENTS HELP SHUNT THE FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OFF THE COAST. BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING MON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SLIDES OFF THE COAST MON NIGHT AND TUE. AT THE SAME TIME SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MID WEST WILL INDUCE 5H TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THE FRONT STALLED EAST OF THE AREA WOULD MOVE BACK TO THE COAST INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS THE PERIOD ENDS. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT DAY 7 SO FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SILENT (SLIGHT CHC) POP FOR TUE. LACK OF COLD AIR AND NOCTURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR VARYING HEIGHTS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...LOWEST NEAR THE COAST. CEILINGS COULD ACTUALLY SCATTER INLAND...ESPECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REFUSES TO BREAK. IFR CEILINGS WILL AGAIN RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE COAST...WITH MORE OF A FOG SCENARIO INLAND. WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS TODAY...WITH CEILINGS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY FINALLY SCATTER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION FOR MORE THAN A WEEK FINALLY BREAKS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE LAST OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPIRED AT 2 PM EDT/1800 UTC. WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SITS ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHTER BUT STILL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. WITH THE SHORT OFFSHORE FETCH SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO ONLY 5.6 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...AND 4 FEET OR LESS WITHIN 10 MILES OF SHORE ACCORDING TO SEVERAL BUOYS NEAR THE NC COAST. ALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR WITH WIND FORECASTS OVERNIGHT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY FINALLY BRINGS AND END TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS THAT HAVE BUFFETED THE COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS FOR SOME TIME. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WEAKENS AND A SMALL CENTER SPLITS OFF TO OUR SOUTH YIELDING A DECREASING AND VEERING FLOW. THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS OCCURS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT OVERALL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE FAIRLY MINOR. SEAS WILL HAVE SETTLED TO 3 TO 4 FT EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. PREFRONTAL FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A BOUNDARY THAT MAY COME THROUGH NEAR OR JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BUT WINDS WILL NOT BUILD SUFFICIENTLY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS A 1 FT INC IN SIG WAVE HEIGHT ABOVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...AS WE APPROACH THE FULL MOON ON OCTOBER 18 ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL RANGES WILL REACH THEIR MAXIMUM OF THE MONTH. THE PAST WEEK OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS HAS PILED UP 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET OF WATER AGAINST THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ACCORDING TO CURRENT TIDAL ANOMALIES. THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE SHOULD BE THE LARGER OF THE TWO HIGHS TODAY AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. ASSUMING THE TIDAL ANOMALY AT THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON GAUGE REMAINS NEAR +1.0 FEET...THIS EVENING'S TIDE WILL BE A COUPLE INCHES HIGHER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY OR THIS MORNING AND SHOULD APPROACH 6.0 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. (MLLW) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054- 056. NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TRA  FXUS62 KILM 161507 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1107 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY THEN STALL IN THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL GET SHOVED TO OUR SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY FOCUS TODAY IS CONCENTRATED ON TEMPS AND SKY COVER AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND COINCIDING NE FLOW CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE IN BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN CURRENT CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ALREADY VARY BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LUMBERTON NC MEASURING 70. LATEST SOUNDING AND TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CLOUD DEPTH SEEMS TO BE THINNER THAN IN PAST DAYS AS AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS DECREASING. ONCE THE CLOUDS BREAK...TEMPS IN AREAS OF SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE...AND BASED ON SKY COVER TREND...THIS INCREASE SHOULD BE FROM SW TO NE. ATTM...LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NC COUNTIES ...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND UPPER 70S FOR THE SC COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY ON TRACK BY LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 60S. REGARDING WINDS...WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A RELAXED GRADIENT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS DURING THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST REMAINS ONE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE NATURE AS THE UPSTREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...NOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. FORCING AND MOISTURE...WHICH HAVE NEVER BEEN IMPRESSIVE AT LEAST FOR OUR AREA REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE AS DO THE POPS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOS PRODUCTS ARE INTERESTING REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS THE NAM/MET NUMBERS ARE A CATEGORY OR MORE HIGHER FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. INITIALLY IT SEEMS EXCESSIVE BUT AS FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. FOR THIS PACKAGE...I STUCK CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT MAV NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW BASICALLY COVERING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT BUT THE FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING A BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET PLACEMENT WHICH IS APPEARS TO BE MANIFESTING IN MODEL QPF FIELDS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHEN WARMER READINGS WILL PREVAIL. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SURFACE OBS THIS MORNING INDICATE CIGS ARE HOVERING AROUND 1KFT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PATCHES OF IFR ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING...BUT LIKELY REMAIN MVFR INTO THE EARLY AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT KFLO JUST AFTER MIDDAY...FOLLOWED BY KLBT AND THEN THE COASTAL SITES BY 21Z. NORTH WINDS 4-8 KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. CALM WINDS AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS OVERNIGHT COULD SUPPORT FOG FORMATION AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL INHIBIT DENSE FOG FORMATION. MVFR VSBYS SEEM MOST APPROPRIATE ATTM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR OUR AREA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1100 AM WEDNESDAY...AFTER LATEST ANALYSIS...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL HOLDS...NO CHANGES NEEDED. DISCUSSION FROM 5 AM FOLLOWS....LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS THIS MORNING IS PROVIDING A LITTLE BIT OF BACKSWELL. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RESULT IN THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING...10 TO 15 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N LEAVING WEAK RIDGING WEST OF THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. N WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FT THIS MORNING AND UP TO 5 FT AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS...WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL WAVE HEIGHTS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 1 TO 3 FT TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP STEAM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10-15 KNOTS BY DAYS END. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY WITH MINIMAL SPEEDS. THE FRONT MEANDERS OFFSHORE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN LEADING TO ESSENTIALLY VARIABLE WINDS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE WEEKEND. LIGHT AND BASICALLY VARIABLE WINDS WILL COVER THE WATERS SATURDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND THE DIRECTION TURNS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BUT APPEAR TO REMAIN UNDER TEN KNOTS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FEET POSSIBLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 1-3 BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...SGL SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR  FXUS62 KILM 172355 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 655 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO RECOVER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. HERE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS A MORE GENTLE WEATHER SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING AS MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS STREAMING ONSHORE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE 63-67 ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.75 INCHES. RADAR SHOWS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS BEING GENERATED BY LIFT ALONG THE 305-310K THETA SURFACES...MAINLY BELOW 600 MB OR 14000 FT. SINCE THIS ENTIRE CLOUD DEPTH IS ABOVE-FREEZING THE OBSERVED DROP SIZES ARE TINY... SIMILAR TO THAT IN A SUMMER TROPICAL SHOWER SITUATION. THIS MEANS RADAR REFLECTIVITY OF ONLY 15-20 DBZ IS PRODUCING ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WITH SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. RAINFALL LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A SECOND ROUND OF MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION OCCURRING LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET ORGANIZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS HELPING WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOULD ALSO ADD ENOUGH TURBULENCE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. SOME PARTS OF SE NORTH CAROLINA 10-30 MILES FROM THE COAST COULD HAVE TEMPS NOT FALL BELOW 67 IF WINDS INCREASE AS EXPECTED. OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS PLUS GEORGETOWN AND SOUTHPORT INDICATE CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE 200-300 FOOT RANGE...INDICATIVE OF SEA FOG TRYING TO PUSH ONSHORE. FOG SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE BEACHES TONIGHT WITH ANY FOG MIXING UP INTO A LOW LAYER OF STRATUS AS IT PUSHES INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON MON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AN INCH AND TWO-THIRDS BEFORE SUNRISE AND THEN BEGIN TO DROP OFF FROM INLAND TO THE COAST MON MORNING. CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 500 TO 800 J/KG AND SO THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX. POPS WILL DECREASE TO SMALL CHANCE INLAND JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH POPS STILL LIKELY NEARER TO THE COAST. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT THE COAST. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH OUR INLAND AREAS AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE FALLING FROM THE 60S TO THE 40S MON AFTERNOON AND EVE AND THEN TO AROUND 30 TUE AND TUE NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON MON...WELL UP IN THE 70S...BUT THEN ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUE. LOWS WILL BE COOLING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL...40S MON NIGHT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE 30S TUE NIGHT. SEA FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE UP THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH AS DEWPOINTS PROGRESSIVELY EXCEED SEA SURFACE TEMPS AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST MON MORNING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A BROAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PATTERN EARLY TO MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SOMEWHAT WEAK TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED IN THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT LATER FRIDAY AS THE AFFECTS OF THE TROUGH BEGIN TO MOVE IN. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OR WHAT MAY BETTER BE DESCRIBED AS SURFACE TROUGHS WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN USUAL WITH THE WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER BY SUNDAY WITH A STRONGER FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ABOUT NORMAL AFTER WE GET PAST WEDNESDAY WHEN BELOW NORMAL VALUES PREVAIL. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT PCPN MOVING OVER KILM...WITH ADDITIONAL -SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AS PCPN MOVES OVERHEAD...ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS. MARINE STRATUS HAS CAUSED CIGS ALONG THE COAST TO PLUMMET BELOW 500 FT THIS EVENING...SO WITH THIS TREND IN MIND WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST TEMPO IFR AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR TONIGHT. WE ARE ALSO SEEING EVIDENCE OF SEA FOG AT KCRE/KMYR AS VSBYS HAVE FALLEN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY MVFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT...BECOMING IFR BY MIDNIGHT AS MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FOG INLAND AS INCREASING S-SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. WE WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMS...WITH PERHAPS THE BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE CAPE FEAR AREA. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT S-SW WINDS WILL BECOME W-NW AOB 10 KTS FOLLOWING FROPA...WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND 15Z INLAND AND 18Z ALONG THE COAST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR ON TUESDAY. MVFR/IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE RATHER ABRUPTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET ORGANIZES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS JET IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WINDS IN THE PAST HOUR AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE GUSTED TO 23 KNOTS...AND WIND SPEEDS EVEN NEARSHORE SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ECLIPSING 20 KNOTS OUT NEAR 20 MILES FROM SHORE. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE...WITH 5-FOOTERS VERY POSSIBLE NEAR FRYING PAN SHOALS. WE ARE GETTING INTO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE THE COLDER NEARSHORE OCEAN WATER HAS A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WEATHER CONDITIONS VERSUS THE WARMER OCEAN SURFACE FARTHER OFFSHORE. TONIGHT THIS COLD WATER WILL DO TWO THINGS: REDUCE THE MAGNITUDE OF WIND GUSTS DUE TO A COOL AND VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WILL PRODUCE PATCHY SEA FOG WITHIN 10 MILES OF SHORE. VERY LOW STRATUS CEILINGS IN THE 200-300 FT RANGE AT SOUTHPORT AND BOTH MYRTLE BEACH AIRPORTS INDICATE SEA FOG IS PROBABLY TRYING TO DEVELOP NOW. IF I CAN DIG UP ANY REPORTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER THE OCEAN SURFACE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MON AFTERNOON. A CHILLY AND DRY NORTHERLY SURGE WILL FOLLOW... BRINGING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT FOR MON NIGHT AND TUE. SEAS WILL REACH 5 TO 7 FT LATE MON NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUE. SEAS MAY REACH 8 OR 9 FT OUT AROUND FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. N TO NNE WINDS WILL VEER TO NE TUE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS DECREASING SLIGHTLY. SEAS WILL HOLD NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUE NIGHT. PATCHY SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF MON. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AS THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEEDS. EARLY WEDNESDAY SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS. BY EARLY THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS AND FINALLY BY FRIDAY WE LEAN CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ARE HIGHEST EARLY PROBABLY LINGERING INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WITH 4-6 FEET. BY THURSDAY VALUES SHOULD DROP TO SCEC RANGES...3-5 FEET THEN DROP FURTHER FRIDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR  FXUS62 KILM 220539 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1238 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF ATLANTIC CLOUD COVER ONSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY COLD AIR. A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THE CURRENT TIME. FIRST OF ALL...SKIES ARE OVERCAST IN A COMBINATION OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS WILL PREVENT ANYTHING APPROACHING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND I HAVE THEREFORE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING WITHIN THE LAYER OF ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION IS PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ON RADAR NEAR BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON. MODELS REVEAL THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295-300K SURFACES WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. I HAVE PLACED A 20-30 POP HERE THROUGH 09Z. ELSEWHERE...VERY LOW CEILINGS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE "DOWNEAST" PORTION OF EXTREME EASTERN NC ARE ADVECTING WESTWARD WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS. CEILINGS IN WILMINGTON...JACKSONVILLE AND KENANSVILLE ARE DOWN TO 200-300 FT. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK MAY PUSH WEST AND UNDERCUT THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FARTHER INLAND. CLOUD DEPTH IS PROBABLY TOO THIN FOR DRIZZLE ACCORDING TO THE WELL-INITIALIZED 00Z NAM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS... LATEST HRRR AND SREF PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...KEEP THE BEST CHANCES...ALBEIT SMALL...OVER THE ADJACENT ATL WATERS MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE AND ALONG A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF. LOOKING AT VARIOUS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ACROSS THE FA...YIELDS AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRATOCU AND STRATUS BELOW 1K FT. THEREFORE...SKY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE FOG POTENTIAL ON THE LOWER/LESSER SIDE OF OCCURRENCE BUT NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE WITH PATCHY AND/OR AREAS OF FOG. LATEST NAM AND GFS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR WITH THEIR LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM THEIR OVERALL NUMBERS. THE ONLY CHANGE WILL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE WHICH WILL KEEP THE MINS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGHINESS EVIDENT JUST OFF THE COAST. THE FORMER WILL SPONSOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WHILE THE LATTER MAKES IT TOUGH TO RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE. HAVE NOT LIMITED THE VERY LOW POPS TO JUST THE COAST HOWEVER AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING VERY GOOD SIGNAL FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION FURTHER INLAND ALONG A LATE SEASON SEA BREEZE. COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS QUITE MILD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 50S. THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY NON-MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE. ARCTIC FRONT NOW A LITTLE FASTER AND LOOKS TO BLAST THROUGH FAR NW ZONES BY MORNING AND AROUND MIDDAY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THIS HAS CAST SOME SERIOUS DOUBTS ON SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE A RAPID JUMP OFF OF NIGHTTIME LOWS THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL OBVIOUSLY SHARPLY REVERSE THAT TREND. HOW SOON THIS HAPPENS WILL HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON WHAT TEMPS ARE ACHIEVED...BEFORE THEY START TO TUMBLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE TRIMMED HIGHS SOME FOR THIS REASON. A LOT OF TIMES THE STRONG CAA LAGS A BIT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HERE IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AS THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRACTURES THE BOUNDARY IN THE VERTICAL. THIS WILL ALSO PROBABLY YIELD QUITE A SPREAD IN THE ACTUAL HIGHS ACHIEVED FROM NW TO SE AND HAVE ADJUSTED FCST ACCORDINGLY. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LACKLUSTER AND DYNAMICS ALOFT STAY WELL REMOVED TO OUR NORTH. RAINFALL CHANCES APPEAR TO ONLY WARRANT CHANCE AND QPF SHOULD BE QUITE MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...PERIOD BEGINS QUIET AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUN WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 50 IN MOST PLACES. PROXIMITY TO SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL EFFECT. HOW STRONG REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE MON BUT RETURN FLOW NEVER REALLY DEVELOPS WITH WEAK WEDGE SETTING UP. MON AND MON NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COOL AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW CLIMO. LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT AHEAD OF GULF COAST SYSTEM LEADS TO INCREASING AND SLOWLY LOWERING CLOUD DECK. SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE PROVIDE THE NEXT BATCH OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL START TO OPEN UP. THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN QUESTION AND IS THE SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 5H LOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO LIGHT RAIN INCREASING OVER THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POP TO LIKELY. ALSO HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE PATTERN EVOLVE TUE INTO WED. CANNOT RULE OUT A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH...SOMETHING THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND MOVES THE TROUGH INLAND WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING WEST OF THE AREA INSTEAD OF JUMPING OFF THE COAST. WHILE EITHER SOLUTION IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PRECIP FALLING IN THE AREA THE DIFFERENCE LIES IN THE TIMING AND TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. HAVE MAINTAINED POP INTO WED NIGHT WITH HIGHS BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS NEAR CLIMO. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...LOW LEVEL EAST WIND IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ONSHORE. IN SE NORTH CAROLINA A LAYER OF VERY LOW STRATUS (200-300 FOOT CEILINGS) HAS DEVELOPED OVER ILM EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD NEW BERN AND MOREHEAD CITY. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THIS CLOUD DECK COULD GET INTO LBT AFTER 09Z...AND MAY EVEN CLIP CRE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10Z. A HEFTY MID LEVEL DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING APPROACHING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS IS NOT TO SAY LOW VSBY IN FOG AND/OR ADDITIONAL LOW CEILINGS WON'T OCCUR...JUST THAT THE PROBABILITY IS MUCH LOWER THAN IF WE HAD CLEAR MID LEVELS. A BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE LBT VCNTY IS FALLING FROM THE MID LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND SHOULD NOT SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT VSBY. AFTER DAYBREAK FLIGHT CATEGORY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 13-15Z AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1230 AM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1030 PM FOLLOWS... THE BORDERLINE SCA FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH 3 AM...MAINLY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS STAYING RIGHT AT SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THE BASIC TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL LIE WITH THE BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY PARKING ITSELF ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT ATL WATERS BY DAYTIME FRIDAY. THE WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF THIS EVENING WILL AID THE ENE-E WIND DIRECTION. DEPENDING ON HOW THE BROAD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTS ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH DIMINISHED SPEEDS IE. 10-15 KT OVERNIGHT DUE TO A RELAXING SFC PG. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL HOLD IN THE 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE 6 FOOTERS PRIMARILY OCCURRING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. DOMINANT PERIODS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 10 SECONDS. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RATHER QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GA AND WEAKENING. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST. WINDS SHOULD BE CAPPED AT JUST 10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH. SOME VEERING ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH THE FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE HIGH AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY EVENING LEADING TO A VERY SHARP VEER. THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL BE MORE GRADUAL. ANY HEADLINE OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS...IF THEY OCCUR...APPEAR SLATED FOR THE LONG TERM. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND PINCHED GRADIENT ON SUN WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THOUGH SEAS MAY END UP REMAINING UNDER 6 FT GIVEN THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS LATE SUN NIGHT AND GRADIENT RELAXES WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHEAST AND DECREASING AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE MON INTO TUE WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE COAST. SPEEDS WILL DROP UNDER 10 KT BY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS EARLY TUE WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS LATER TUE AND STARTS TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. INCREASE IN WINDS COMBINED WITH ONSHORE TRAJECTORY PUSHES SEAS TO 3 TO 4 FT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ250-252. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...SGL/TRA  FXUS62 KILM 072330 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 630 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DAMP AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT BRINGS A SHORT-LIVED WARMUP MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER. OVER WILMINGTON THE COLD AIRMASS IS ABOUT 3000 FEET DEEP...ABOVE WHICH WINDS ARE STILL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ORIGINATE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS LIFT ALONG THE 295-305K SURFACES (3500-9000 FT AGL) WHILE THE RUC SHOWS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF LIFT. ALL MODELS CRANK OUT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN AREA-WIDE. RECENT RADAR LOOPS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF RAIN UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...THEREFORE I HAVE RAISED FORECAST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO 80-90 PERCENT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES AND AREAS NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER. CLOUD DEPTH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT WITH CLOUD BASES LOW ENOUGH TO GUARANTEE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE EVEN WHEN MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT FALLING. COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF SUBTROPICAL WEATHER...TONIGHT'S WEATHER IS A HARSH REMINDER OF THE ACTUAL DATE ON THE CALENDAR. AIRMASS ADVECTION IS THE ONLY FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR LOWS SINCE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL NEGATE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST OF I-95 TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES LOOK REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A DARK AND DREARY SUNDAY ON TAP AS SHALLOW WEDGE OF CHILLY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 40S YET IT WILL BE 60 DEGREES 2500 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE BASE OF THIS IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WILL BE AT ABOUT 600FT...WHICH IS THE LEVEL AT WHICH THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE FOUND. MODELS SHOWING THAT THE WARM AIR RIDING OVER THE WEDGE LEADS TO SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAINFALL BUT MOST OF BOTH SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN SURPRISINGLY QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT MENTIONED EARLIER WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND BRING A MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON. MODELS HOLDING ON TO RAIN CHANCES...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE ENOUGH MONDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT ALSO BRINGS SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY...BEING WELL ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IN BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN RAIN CHANCES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE REMAINS IN QUESTION. ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE A FAST SOLUTION WITH THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE AND NAM IN BETWEEN. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN...BROAD TROUGHING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...MEANS FLOW WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SLOWER BOUNDARY MOVEMENT. AT THIS POINT WILL TREND TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION BUT NOT DRASTICALLY...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE NAM. MID LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ARCTIC HIGH IN FROM THE WEST. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD ADVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT TEMPERATURES STILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FRI WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE DEFINED SAT. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES RETURN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE INCREASE IN TEMP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN POP. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POST FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NOW LIES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR...WHERE IFR HAS LINGERED THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE 1KFT TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...BUT GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR STRATUS WITH THE COLD AIR WEDGE IN PLACE. KFLO/KLBT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE PERIODS OF -RA/DZ ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS WELL...REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A FEW GUSTS AOB 20 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE COLD WEDGE LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...SO STRATUS WILL LIKELY PLAGUE ALL TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. SHOWERS LIKELY TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 630 PM SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL PUSH CHILLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED. RECENT GUSTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE REACHED 27 KNOTS...WITH 22 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 21 KNOTS AT MYRTLE BEACH. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 6 FEET AT FRYING PAN AND 4 FEET AT THE CAPE FEAR RIVER HARBOR BUOY...WITH ANOTHER 1 FOOT INCREASE POSSIBLE BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE SEA HEIGHTS MAX OUT. DRIZZLE WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...CHILLY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LANDMASS ON SUNDAY TO PINCH GRADIENT EARLY ON. FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO EASE THE GRADIENT SOME AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AS WIND AND SEAS RELAX THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/6FT SEAS SHOULD ABATE...POSSIBLY A BIT BEFORE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 17Z. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BUT PROBABLY ONLY BRIEFLY AS THE MARINE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVEN AS IT HOLDS FAST OVER LAND. NOT SO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HOWEVER AS THE SHALLOW WEDGE THEN WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY. THIS ALLOWS THE FLOW TO TURN AROUND TO S OR SW WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY CAPPED AT 10 TO 15KT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE TUE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH LIMITED GUST POTENTIAL GIVEN COOLER WATER TEMPS. POST FRONT COLD ADVECTION IS SLOW TO DEVELOP SO OFFSHORE FLOW TUE NIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO NORTHERLY FLOW START TO INCREASE AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. SPEEDS WED AND THU WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT. OCCASIONAL COLD SURGES COULD PUSH WINDS OVER 20 KT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. SEAS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WILL FLIRT WITH 6 FT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SEAS IN PLACES. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE ABRUPT WIND SHIFT WILL CREATE A CHAOTIC SEA STATE THOUGH SEAS WILL START TRENDING DOWN. THE DOWNWARD TREND ENDS WED MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND WINDS INCREASE...NOW FROM THE NORTH. SEAS RANGING FROM 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO 6 FT NEAR 20 NM WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND THU. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR  FXUS62 KILM 080231 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 931 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DAMP AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A WARM FRONT BRINGS A SHORT-LIVED WARMUP MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED THROUGH SAVANNAH GA AND SHOULD STALL IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLD AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW...EXTENDING UP TO ONLY 2100 FEET AT CHARLESTON SC AND TO 3000 FEET AT MOREHEAD CITY NC. ABOVE THIS LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ORIGINATE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SLOPING FRONTAL SURFACE IS YIELDING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. LIFT IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE 295-305K THETA SURFACES (4000-9000 FT AGL) AND ALL MODELS REGARDLESS OF THEIR DIFFERING FINE-SCALE DETAILS SHOW THIS LIFT CONTINUING WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. RADAR LOOPS AT 9 PM SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND I HAVE RAISED FORECAST POPS TO 80-100 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE SANTEE RIVER. CLOUD DEPTH SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CLOUD BASES LOW ENOUGH TO GUARANTEE OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE EVEN WHEN MEASURABLE RAIN IS NOT FALLING. COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OF SUBTROPICAL WEATHER...TONIGHT'S WEATHER IS A HARSH REMINDER OF THE ACTUAL DATE ON THE CALENDAR. AIRMASS ADVECTION IS THE ONLY FACTOR TO CONSIDER FOR LOWS SINCE DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL NEGATE ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST OF LUMBERTON AND BENNETTSVILLE TO THE MID 40S AT THE BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A DARK AND DREARY SUNDAY ON TAP AS SHALLOW WEDGE OF CHILLY AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED ALONG THE EAST FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE 40S YET IT WILL BE 60 DEGREES 2500 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE BASE OF THIS IMPRESSIVE INVERSION WILL BE AT ABOUT 600FT...WHICH IS THE LEVEL AT WHICH THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE FOUND. MODELS SHOWING THAT THE WARM AIR RIDING OVER THE WEDGE LEADS TO SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAINFALL BUT MOST OF BOTH SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN SURPRISINGLY QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE WARM AIR ALOFT MENTIONED EARLIER WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE AND BRING A MUCH WARMER AFTERNOON. MODELS HOLDING ON TO RAIN CHANCES...WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE ENOUGH MONDAY MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. MONDAY NIGHT ALSO BRINGS SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES SLOWLY...BEING WELL ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. IN BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN RAIN CHANCES. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE REMAINS IN QUESTION. ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE A FAST SOLUTION WITH THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE AND NAM IN BETWEEN. THE MID LEVEL PATTERN...BROAD TROUGHING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...MEANS FLOW WILL BE ALIGNED ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SLOWER BOUNDARY MOVEMENT. AT THIS POINT WILL TREND TO THE SLOWER SOLUTION BUT NOT DRASTICALLY...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE NAM. MID LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND MOVING ARCTIC HIGH IN FROM THE WEST. THE BRUNT OF THE COLD ADVECTION REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA BUT TEMPERATURES STILL DROP 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FRI WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOMING MORE DEFINED SAT. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG IT AS THE PERIOD ENDS. TEMPERATURES RETURN NEAR CLIMO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE INCREASE IN TEMP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN POP. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...POST FRONTAL MVFR/IFR CIGS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT NOW LIES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THE LOWEST CIGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR...WHERE IFR HAS LINGERED THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE 1KFT TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST...BUT GUIDANCE AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT PREVAILING IFR STRATUS WITH THE COLD AIR WEDGE IN PLACE. KFLO/KLBT SHOULD SEE MVFR CIGS TONIGHT LOWER TO IFR AFTER 06Z. RADAR RETURNS INDICATE PERIODS OF -RA/DZ ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS WELL...REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A FEW GUSTS AOB 20 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE COLD WEDGE LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...SO STRATUS WILL LIKELY PLAGUE ALL TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT. SHOWERS LIKELY TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SOON BE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND SHOULD REMAIN PARKED THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA WILL PUSH CHILLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED. RECENT GUSTS OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY HAVE REACHED 31 KNOTS...WITH 26 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND 17 KNOTS AT MYRTLE BEACH. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FEET AT FRYING PAN AND 4.5 FEET AT THE CAPE FEAR RIVER HARBOR BUOY...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DRIZZLE WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...CHILLY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LANDMASS ON SUNDAY TO PINCH GRADIENT EARLY ON. FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO EASE THE GRADIENT SOME AS THE DAY WEARS ON. AS WIND AND SEAS RELAX THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/6FT SEAS SHOULD ABATE...POSSIBLY A BIT BEFORE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME OF 17Z. SCEC HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BUT PROBABLY ONLY BRIEFLY AS THE MARINE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVEN AS IT HOLDS FAST OVER LAND. NOT SO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HOWEVER AS THE SHALLOW WEDGE THEN WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY. THIS ALLOWS THE FLOW TO TURN AROUND TO S OR SW WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY CAPPED AT 10 TO 15KT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE TUE WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TUE NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH LIMITED GUST POTENTIAL GIVEN COOLER WATER TEMPS. POST FRONT COLD ADVECTION IS SLOW TO DEVELOP SO OFFSHORE FLOW TUE NIGHT WILL INITIALLY BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. AROUND DAYBREAK OR SO NORTHERLY FLOW START TO INCREASE AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. SPEEDS WED AND THU WILL BE 15 TO 20 KT. OCCASIONAL COLD SURGES COULD PUSH WINDS OVER 20 KT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. SEAS WELL AWAY FROM SHORE WILL FLIRT WITH 6 FT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH SEAS TO 3 TO 5 FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SEAS IN PLACES. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE ABRUPT WIND SHIFT WILL CREATE A CHAOTIC SEA STATE THOUGH SEAS WILL START TRENDING DOWN. THE DOWNWARD TREND ENDS WED MORNING AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND WINDS INCREASE...NOW FROM THE NORTH. SEAS RANGING FROM 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO 6 FT NEAR 20 NM WILL BE POSSIBLE WED AND THU. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR  FXUS62 KILM 090244 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 944 PM EST SUN DEC 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD...BRINGING A SHORT-LIVED RETURN TO UNSEASONABLE WARMTH ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CHILLY AIR MAY HANG ON MONDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COOL CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...THE FRONT IS STILL HUNG UP ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA THIS EVENING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED AIRMASS DIFFERENCE NOTED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. OFFSHORE THE FRONT IS DISCERNIBLE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 80-100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. THE DEPTH OF THIS MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS BECOMING SHALLOWER WITH TIME AND THIS EVENING'S 00Z SOUNDINGS AT MHX AND CHS SHOWED ONLY 1500-1800 FEET OF COLD AIR REMAINING...WITH A WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS ALOFT. THERE ARE SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS TEMPERATURES. PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL WITHIN THE COLD DOME ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT THAT WHAT WE ARE OBSERVING LOCALLY. THESE ARE BOTH SIGNS THAT COLD ADVECTION HAS ENDED. OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE OUR NIGHTTIME LOWS (UPPER 30S INLAND WITH LOWER 40S AT THE COAST) AND STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. INCREASINGLY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE SHALLOW COLD DOME PLUS EROSION FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD SPELL THE END OF THE COLD AIR ALONG THE COAST SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER CHALLENGE IS HOW MUCH (IF ANY) MEASURABLE RAIN WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS IMPLY A MUCH MORE SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH NOW THAN WE SAW LAST NIGHT. THIS PLUS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT (LIMITED TO A THIN LAYER ALONG THE 295K THETA SURFACE) SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE. MY HIGHEST POPS (30 PERCENT) ARE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTING WEST TO THE DARLINGTON-BENNETTSVILLE AREA LATE TONIGHT. AND THE LAST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THE BASE OF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY 300-400 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITH SURFACE VISIBILITIES GENERALLY GREATER THAN 2 MILES IN DRIZZLE. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS PLUS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATE CLOUD BASES DESCENDING PRACTICALLY TO GROUND LEVEL LATE TONIGHT...WITH DENSE FOG THE POSSIBLE RESULT. THE NEW 00Z NAM MAINTAINS CLOUD BASES AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED FEET UP. THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO...AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST (AND HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK) FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...A BIT OF A TRICKY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL IS WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY HIGH TEMPS. COOL AIR WEDGE INITIALLY TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ALBEIT TO A DEPTH OF JUST 600FT...WITH A VERY SHARP INVERSION THROUGH ABOUT 1200 FT. IN FACT THE WEDGE MAY HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS KEEPING TEMPERATURES RISING ONLY VERY SLOWLY. THIS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FURTHER INLAND. THE WRF HANGS ON TO THE WEDGE LONGER THAN THE GFS...AND THE SLOWER MODEL ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT A VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME. EVEN SO...THE LATER DAY BREAKING OF THE WEDGE OVER FAR NWRN ZONES WILL KEEP HIGHS CLOSER TO CLIMO WHILE AREAS ALONG THE MORE IMMEDIATE COAST WARMS UP INTO THE LOW 70S. WHEN AND WHERE THE WEDGE BREAKS HOWEVER WILL LEAD TO LARGE JUMPS IN TEMPS DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS AND STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION. POPS ARE ALSO RATHER PERPLEXING ON MONDAY...DESPITE THE FACT THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING THROUGH MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE TO NO ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE DRIED OUT QUITE A BIT WHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DAMP. DRIZZLE SEEMS A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE RAINFALL. NOT SO ON MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOW GFS AS THE BOUNDARY IS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND THUS WILL HAVE NO LARGE SOUTHWARD PUSH. A FLAT WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SLOW THE PROGRESS SOMEWHAT. ASSUMING THIS IS CORRECT THE FRONT WILL ENTER NWRN ZONES BY 18Z AND PROBABLY CLEAR THE AREA 3 TO 4 HOURS LATER. THIS WILL MEAN THAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL SHOW A CONSIDERABLE GRADIENT FROM NRN TO SRN ZONES JUST AS THEY SHOULD ON MONDAY. STRONG COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BACK IN THE 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE PERIOD WITH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT WILL BECOME FLATTER LATER IN THE WEEK. EARLY IN THE PERIOD FRONT STALLED OFF THE COAST MAY MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POP FOR EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE WITH THE AREA DRYING OUT THU AND FRI AS MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THU AND FRI NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMO. THE WEEKEND BRINGS ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH SAT. THE TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT MOVE ONSHORE SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE SAT NIGHT OR SUN. HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FRI INTO SAT BUT LESS CONFIDENCE IN IT MOVING ONSHORE. THE WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM REMAINS AN ENIGMA AT THIS POINT WITH VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND THE ECMWF. THINK SOMETHING WILL BE THERE BUT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE ON THE PARTICULARS. HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR SUN QUITE NICELY SUMS UP THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS SOLUTION WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH ECMWF SOLUTION PRODUCING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER SEE NO REASON TO MAKE CHANGES LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 00Z...IFR/LIFR CIGS BLANKET OUR CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD AIR WEDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TONIGHT...BECOMING LIFR AT ALL SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT ALSO ENHANCES OUR FOG THREAT...AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE WITH WARMER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE SFC WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE WEDGE BEGINS TO ERODE. THE GFS SOUNDINGS ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN THE NAM IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF THE COLD WEDGE ERODING. IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST BY MIDDAY. IFR WILL PERSIST LONGER AT KFLO/KLBT AND COULD LAST THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL IFR STRATUS ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 930 PM SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ABOUT 80-100 MILES OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST TONIGHT...JUMPING ONSHORE MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO RISE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE INTERIOR CAROLINAS WHICH WILL HELP THE WARM FRONT TO MAKE PROGRESS ONSHORE. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WERE EARLIER BLOWING 15-20 KNOTS BUT ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS...THEN ABRUPTLY SHIFT 180 DEGREES MONDAY MORNING. SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO ONLY 3 FEET AT THE CAPE FEAR RIVER HARBOR BUOY AND TO 5 FEET OUT AT FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. WITH DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO DIMINISH BY ABOUT ANOTHER FOOT BY DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE COLD AIR WEDGE THAT HAD BRINGING THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ERODE FROM SE TO NW ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD HAPPEN QUITE READILY OVER THE WATERS BUT MAY BE MORE SLUGGISH AND PROBLEMATIC TO FORECAST OVER LAND. AS SUCH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL JUST BE GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WATERS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT VEER AND INCREASE IN THE SPEEDS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER INLAND...POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR A 15 TO 20KT FCST BY LATER IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT AND FLAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC BUT GENERALLY EAST OF THE 20 NM FORECAST ZONES. EVEN SO...EVEN BY LATER MONDAY SEAS MAY MANAGE TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT RANGE WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FOUND WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO THE LARGELY COAST-PARALLEL WIND DIRECTION. COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHARP VEER TO NRLY WINDS TUESDAY EVENING ALTHOUGH THE SPEED OF THE BOUNDARY IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME GUIDANCE BEING FASTER THAN CURRENT FCST. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SPEEDS REMAIN A QUESTION. PERIOD BEGINS WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT BUT DROPPING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MIDDAY AS GRADIENT RELAXES. SPEEDS START TO INCREASE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AS THE WAVE PASSES WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO CLOSE TO 20 KT AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. GRADIENT RELAXES AND SPEEDS DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI AS WAVE EXITS AND CENTER OF HIGH MOVES TO THE NC COAST. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT ON FRI. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...BJR  FXUS62 KILM 312001 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 301 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AS IT PASSES EAST OF CAPE FEAR EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS DROPPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWS CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY THIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA BUT A BIT THICKER ALONG OUR VERY SOUTHERN TIER. SHORT-WAVE PRESENTLY EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL SOLIDIFY THE ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT WITH A SHOT A COLD AIR ADVECTION EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS SLATED TO DIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING 3Z/10P NORTH ZONES AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD THICKNESS WILL PREVENT MINIMUMS FROM DIPPING AS LOW AS POTENTIALLY THEY COULD...BUT WIDESPEAD 30S NONTHELESS ANTICIAPTED DAYBREAK NEW YEARS DAY MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT EMANATING FROM THE BROAD MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW VERY EVIDENT AT THIS HOUR ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. I WILL FOLLOW THE GFS FOR THE LATEST PACKAGE. THIS MODEL HAS COME IN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH FORCING AND QPF GENERATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MAINLY BY MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS A BROAD BUT RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKS WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. VIA THE GFS THE BEST FORCING OCCURS MID MORNING THURSDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL VALUES FOR THURSDAY WITH THIS SIX HOURS REPRESENTING THE HIGHEST. STILL SPLITTING HAIRS A BIT HERE AS SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY WANT TO GO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOW JUST OVER AN INCH ALONG THE COAST TO JUST OVER ONE HALF INCH INLAND. WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH WILL DO THE TRICK. AN OBSERVATION OR TWO OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE ZONES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD SANS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WHEN THE MET IS MUCH WARMER ESPECIALLY INLAND. ONCE AGAIN GOING WITH THE MAV/GFS NUMBERS FOR CONSISTENCY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...VERY CHILLY AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE GRADUALLY ON SATURDAY AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OCEAN MODERATION OF A FEW DEGREES BUT SHALLOW MIXING WILL PREVENT THE THERMAL ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. NOT SO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER AS THE WARMER AIR WILL MANAGE TO MIX DOWN. THE SLIGHTLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL LAST UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ON MONDAY. THE AIRMASS THAT FOLLOWS MAY BE AS COLD AS FRIDAYS. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH OUR AREA...AND THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE WINDS WILL GO CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS AOB 8 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...2-4 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AS WINDS VEER TO N THEN NNE INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF WED. NO HAZRDS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SE WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS OR SO WILL BE MIXED WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE CHOP. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WITH THE FORCING FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT RELEGATED TO MOSTLY MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE COASTAL WATER ELEMENTS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BENIGN IN COMPARISON. EARLY WEDNESDAY A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL BUT TURN TO EAST/SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL LIFT ALLOWS A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP. WITH A MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND HEALTHY FOR A FEW HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS FINALLY KICKING UP AGAIN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD INCREASING THE FINAL SIX HOURS OF THE PERIOD TO 3-5 FEET. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...PERIOD INITIALIZES IN STRONG SCA/POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS IN ARCTIC COLD SURGE. FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS AN EASE IN THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE CENTER OF THE CHILLY AIRMASS APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND CONTINUES TO VEER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. FLAGS FLYING TO START AS MENTIONED BUT NOTHING EXPECTED FROM ABOUT FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS FAR AS FLAGS OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...BJR  FXUS62 KILM 312335 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 634 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE AREA AS IT PASSES EAST OF CAPE FEAR EARLY THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS DROPPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING INCLUDE LOWERING FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON RATHER RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND THE PROMISE OF FAIR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE IS WIDESPREAD...BUT A GLANCE OUT OF THE WINDOW SHOWS IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OPAQUE AND SHOULD STILL ALLOW HEAT TO ESCAPE TO SPACE. OTHERWISE 2013 SHOULD GO OUT ON AN UNEVENTFUL DRY AND COOL NOTE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM FOLLOWS... THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWS CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY THIN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CAROLINA BUT A BIT THICKER ALONG OUR VERY SOUTHERN TIER. SHORT-WAVE PRESENTLY EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL SOLIDIFY THE ADVANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO TONIGHT WITH A SHOT A COLD AIR ADVECTION EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS SLATED TO DIP SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING 3Z/10P NORTH ZONES AND INTO SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD THICKNESS WILL PREVENT MINIMUMS FROM DIPPING AS LOW AS POTENTIALLY THEY COULD...BUT WIDESPREAD 30S NONETHELESS ANTICIPATED DAYBREAK NEW YEARS DAY MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT EMANATING FROM THE BROAD MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW VERY EVIDENT AT THIS HOUR ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. I WILL FOLLOW THE GFS FOR THE LATEST PACKAGE. THIS MODEL HAS COME IN A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT WITH FORCING AND QPF GENERATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED MAINLY BY MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AS A BROAD BUT RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WORKS WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. VIA THE GFS THE BEST FORCING OCCURS MID MORNING THURSDAY. I HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL VALUES FOR THURSDAY WITH THIS SIX HOURS REPRESENTING THE HIGHEST. STILL SPLITTING HAIRS A BIT HERE AS SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY WANT TO GO 100 ACROSS THE BOARD. QPF AMOUNTS SHOW JUST OVER AN INCH ALONG THE COAST TO JUST OVER ONE HALF INCH INLAND. WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WHICH WILL DO THE TRICK. AN OBSERVATION OR TWO OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE ZONES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE BOARD SANS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WHEN THE MET IS MUCH WARMER ESPECIALLY INLAND. ONCE AGAIN GOING WITH THE MAV/GFS NUMBERS FOR CONSISTENCY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...VERY CHILLY AIR IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE GRADUALLY ON SATURDAY AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME OCEAN MODERATION OF A FEW DEGREES BUT SHALLOW MIXING WILL PREVENT THE THERMAL ADVECTION FROM BEING REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. NOT SO SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER AS THE WARMER AIR WILL MANAGE TO MIX DOWN. THE SLIGHTLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL LAST UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ON MONDAY. THE AIRMASS THAT FOLLOWS MAY BE AS COLD AS FRIDAYS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT NE OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER SUNRISE VFR IS EXPECTED WITH E WINDS...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-4K BY LATE MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AT INITIALLY AT THE SOUTHERNMOST TERMINALS...SPREADING TO NEAR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. COULD BE PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH IFR/LIFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR THURSDAY EVENING. VFR FRIDAY. MVFR SATURDAY. CHANCE RAIN MVFR/IFR SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 630 PM TUESDAY...I HAVE CUT WIND SPEED FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY OVER HALF BASED ON WIND OBSERVATIONS OF ONLY 4 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 6-8 KNOTS WAY OUT AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. AS A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD VEER NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. SEA HEIGHT FORECASTS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRIMMED SLIGHTLY WITH 2-3 FEET EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONE FACTOR NOT ADDRESSED IN THE WIND/WAVE FORECAST: THE APPROACHING NEW MOON IS PRODUCING LARGE TIDAL RANGES WITH THE LOW TIDES OF PARTICULAR CONCERN. FORECAST LOW TIDES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD DROP BELOW -1.0 FEET MLLW AT THE BEACHES. THIS CAN MAKE SHOALS... UN-DREDGED INLETS AND TIDAL CREEKS HAZARDOUS TO NAVIGATION...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 230 PM FOLLOWS... 2-4 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS AS WINDS VEER TO N THEN NNE INTO THE PRE-DAWN OF WED. NO HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SE WAVES 1-3 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS OR SO WILL BE MIXED WITH A LIGHT OFFSHORE CHOP. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...WITH THE FORCING FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT RELEGATED TO MOSTLY MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...THE COASTAL WATER ELEMENTS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BENIGN IN COMPARISON. EARLY WEDNESDAY A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL BUT TURN TO EAST/SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL LIFT ALLOWS A COASTAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP. WITH A MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND HEALTHY FOR A FEW HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS FINALLY KICKING UP AGAIN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD INCREASING THE FINAL SIX HOURS OF THE PERIOD TO 3-5 FEET. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...PERIOD INITIALIZES IN STRONG SCA/POSSIBLE GALE FORCE GUSTS IN ARCTIC COLD SURGE. FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS AN EASE IN THE GRADIENT ALONG WITH VEERING IN DIRECTION AS THE CENTER OF THE CHILLY AIRMASS APPROACHES FROM THE NW. FLOW REMAINS LIGHT AND CONTINUES TO VEER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. FLAGS FLYING TO START AS MENTIONED BUT NOTHING EXPECTED FROM ABOUT FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS FAR AS FLAGS OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...MRR  FXUS62 KILM 290753 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 353 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY...CREATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL REACH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY NOON...SLOWING AND PRACTICALLY STALLING AS SUCH FRONTS OFTEN DO DURING INTENSE SOLAR HEATING. THIS FRONT IS A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH IS DRIFTING INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA AS I WRITE THIS AT 3 AM. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/SC STATE LINE BETWEEN 5-6 AM WITH A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS ELIZABETHTOWN OR BURGAW FROM NOW UNTIL SUNRISE. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE RISING TO 2000-3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO NEAR -7. SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THE ADDITION OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND THIS MORNING'S OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD GIVE PLENTY OF POTENTIAL TRIGGERS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG. LAPSE RATES WILL BE PARTICULARLY STEEP UP THROUGH 650 MB...INDUCING LARGE INITIAL PARCEL ACCELERATION AND A RAPID ERUPTION OF STORMS ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. FORECAST POPS TODAY RANGE FROM 70 PERCENT ACROSS INTERIOR SE NORTH CAROLINA TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE EXCEEDINGLY WEAK TODAY...5-8 KT AT 850 MB...5-10 KT AT 500 MB...AND AROUND 10 KT AT 300 MB. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE SINGLE-CELL STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. STORMS WILL CHOKE ON THEIR OWN COLD OUTFLOW BUT BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD EASILY CREATE A NUMBER OF NEW CELLS. VERY SLOW CELL MOTION WILL PRODUCE A PATCHWORK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY 2-3 INCHES IN ISOLATED SPOTS...INTERSPERSED WITH LIGHTER TOTALS. HIGH WINDS FROM WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH A POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AS WELL. THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME VERY PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS SINCE THEORETICAL PARCEL-MINUS-ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES SHOULD REMAIN LARGE (6-8 DEGREES C) UP THROUGH THROUGH -10 TO -30C LAYER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 TODAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE SC PEE DEE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...INTERESTING PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM...AS AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKED 5H FLOW FORCES SYSTEMS TO RETROGRADE ALOFT. TWO LARGE UPPER LOWS...ONE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND ANOTHER RE-STRENGTHENING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...WILL CONTINUE THEIR LOCAL INFLUENCES INTO THE WKND...WITH THE CAROLINAS REMAINING SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO. ATOP THE ARKLATEX LOW...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BLOSSOMING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE FORCED SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS IT...ALMOST LITERALLY...GETS SQUEEZED OUT BY THE NORTHEAST TROUGH...FORCING THE ARKLATEX LOW TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...A BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...DROPPING SOUTH LATE SATURDAY...AS ITS MOTION GETS BOTH ASSISTED (BY NORTHEAST TROUGH) AND IMPEDED (BY UPPER RIDGE)...CAUSING ITS SLOW PROGRESSION. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY...AND THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TEMPS AS WELL. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MORE ACTIVE...AND WARMER DAY OF THE SHORT TERM. FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY BISECTING THE CWA...ALIGNED EAST TO WEST NEAR THE SC/NC LINE...FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FEATURE IS NOT DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN THAT AHEAD OF IT...SO WHILE TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE IN THE SOUTH...STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S NORTH...MID/UPR 80S SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES...LOW/MID 60S...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY...AS EVIDENCED BY A LARGE SWATH OF 90% 12-HR SREF PROBS FOR 0.01 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST PROBS ARE ACROSS SC...BUT THE ENTIRE CWA IS LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. SBCAPE VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT RAPIDLY FALL OFF BEHIND IT. A SIMILAR PWAT GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL...FROM ABOUT 1.9 INCHES WELL SOUTH...TO 1.3 INCHES FAR NORTH...IN A COLUMN CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 10 KFT OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH. THIS SETUP SUPPORTS VERY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...AS EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES ARE LIKELY DUE TO MODERATELY STRONG UPDRAFTS INTO A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...CREATING LOW NORMALIZED-CAPE VALUES...THIS HAS BEEN SHOWN TO FURTHER ENHANCE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND THUS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NOTING THE ADDED CAVEAT OF SLOW STORM MOTIONS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MID- LEVEL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE DOWN WITHIN THE NW FLOW...MOVING ATOP THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHICH WILL ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...AND HIGHEST POP...LIKELY...WILL BE SHOWN THERE...TRENDING DOWN TO CHC IN THE NORTH. WITH THIS SETUP IN PLACE...AND THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE WET AS WELL...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES...AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT DAY. A QUIETER DAY SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT STILL SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH...SOME DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE PEE DEE REGION AND ALONG THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. PROFILES SHOW PRETTY QUICK DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...SO BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EARLY IN THE AFTN...WITH POP DROPPING TO SILENT BY THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT...LOW/MID 80S AREA-WIDE WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY FALLING BELOW 60 IN THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE FLATTENING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN OFFSHORE LATE IN THE EXTENDED. THIS PATTERN PRODUCES MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO TEMPS SUN/MON AND WITH MUCH DECREASED HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS NEXT WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW BACK INTO THE CAROLINAS TUE/WED. WHILE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LIKE WE SAW FREQUENTLY IN MAY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING DIURNAL TSTM CHANCES. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT FOG-PRONE SITES LIKE KCRE AND KLBT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN ORIGINATED FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE VA BORDER...AND MAY REACH LBT AND ILM BETWEEN 0800-0830Z. WINDS BEHIND THIS MINIATURE COLD FRONT COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BEFORE THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES BEFORE SUNRISE. THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC-SCALE COLD FRONT WILL INCH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE SHOULD EXIST ACROSS INTERIOR NC...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. THE GFS/NAM AGREE IT WILL PUSH THROUGH KLBT/KILM BY 18Z...BUT THEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER AS TO WHAT HAPPENS AT KFLO/KCRE/KMYR. EXPECT GENERALLY WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...VEERING TO THE E-NE FOLLOWING FROPA BUT REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. VFR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS HATTERAS ISLAND SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AROUND NOON. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AND TEMPORARILY BECOME DIFFUSE WITH THE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A VARIETY OF WIND DIRECTIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY EAST NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND MAINLY SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR...BUT WITH THE SEABREEZE DETERMINING THE ACTUAL DIRECTION. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT MEANS MOST OF THESE STORM CELLS WILL REMAIN INLAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SEABREEZE...HOWEVER A FEW COULD DRIFT OUT PAST THE BEACHES INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. ANY STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A GOOD DEAL OF LIGHTNING. THE FRONT MAY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE MYRTLE BEACH/MURRELLS INLET AREA OVERNIGHT. AS INLAND THUNDERSTORM DIE DOWN DURING THE EVENING THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THE CONVECTIVE RISK COULD SHIFT OFFSHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OBVIOUSLY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND SEAS COULD TEMPORARILY BUILD QUITE A BIT HIGHER. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...SLOW MOVING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT WILL TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING TO MAKE IT ALL THE WAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CREATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON FRIDAY...FROM THE NE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS FRONT...AND THE S/SE TO THE SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...ALL WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE WITH A WEAK SURGE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS FRIDAY WILL BE PRIMARILY 1-2 FT...BUT WILL START TO RISE TOWARDS 3 FT FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NC WATERS. SATURDAY SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE ENHANCED NE WINDS...BECOMING 2-4 FT ALL WATERS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE COAST WILL DRIVE A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY...WITH NE WINDS OF AROUND 15 KTS COMMON THROUGH THE DAY. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER SLOWLY...TO THE SW AT 5-10 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH A NE WIND CHOP PREDOMINANT WITHIN THE WAVE SPECTRUM. WAVE HEIGHTS FALL TO 2-3 FT MONDAY AS THE WINDS EASE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/JDW  FXUS62 KILM 180736 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE ALOFT FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY NEBULOUS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STALLED FRONT NEAR SAVANNAH. THIS LOW IS NOW DISSIPATING WELL EAST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST DUE TO LACK OF BAROCLINICITY. THIS WILL LEAVE VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE FEATURES OF NOTE TODAY...LEAVING WINDS AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL EFFECTS LIKE THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION PLUS ANY SHOWER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DECREASE MARKEDLY IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL CUT THROUGH THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS SHOULD STILL APPROACH 80 INLAND...WITH MID 70S NEAR THE COAST. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT THE COAST...TEMPS NEAR 80 SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND WITH COVERAGE PROBABLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VERY LATE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STILL SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A POTENT SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VLY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THE CAROLINAS...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP SW FLOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE SUNDAY...WITH 850MB V-WIND COMPONENT REACHING +3 SD'S LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT OF POTENTIALLY RECORD-FOR- THE-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER AS COMPARED AGAINST THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. ALTHOUGH A NICE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ARC ACROSS THE MEXICO/US BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL NOT AID IN ANY LIFT SO UPPER SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK INVOF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 11-12 KFT...AND ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH PROVIDES LONG PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES WITHIN THE SATURATED COLUMN...SUGGEST PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED SO THUNDER WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED...BUT HEAVY SHOWERS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 1" OF QPF OR MORE LOOKS VERY LIKELY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY...BUT CONTINUED DEEP SW FLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WILL STILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL-TO-ABOVE FOR MID-APRIL. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMER DAY WITH FEWER CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR MORE INSOLATION TO WARM THE SURFACE. 850MB TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE 12- 14C...BUT CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SUNDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STRUGGLE TO DROP ONLY INTO THE UPR 60S...LOW 60S BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING...AND A PRIMARILY QUIET WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES TUE-THU BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO FORCED-ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW WHICH WILL SIT AND SPIN ACROSS SE CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE CAROLINAS WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...SO WHILE COOLER TEMPS WILL OCCUR TUE/WED...SEASONABLE VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED. LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...MOIST RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP BOTH DUE TO INCREASED COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW...DRIVEN BY A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE UPPER LOW. TEMPS THU/FRI WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z SATURDAY...LATEST RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE INCREASING COVERAGE OF THE PCPN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS PCPN IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DYNAMICS FROM A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THIS MORNING...AND EXITING TO THE NE BY MID- AFTERNOON. WITH NO REAL SFC CONVERGENCE TO FURTHER AID PCPN DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY...HAVE KEPT THE THREAT FOR THUNDER OUT OF ALL TERMINALS. IF THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH...THEN THUNDER MAY BECOME A POSSIBILITY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF THE PCPN OCCURRENCE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE TERMINALS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM BR. LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE NOW BACKS DOWN WITH THE DENSE FOG THREAT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS BEFORE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS ARE REALIZED AS PCPN SUPPORT ALOFT MOVES NE OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED WITH ISOLATED THUNDER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A CFP MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TUE THROUGH WED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A VERY DISORGANIZED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MORE IMPORTANT TO OUR WEATHER WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING WHICH PROMISES TO BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE LOOK FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AND A REDUCTION IN RAIN COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE TONIGHT THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN AROUND DAYBREAK. VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FEET IN THE 10-20 MILE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR CAPE FEAR WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 2-3 FEET SEAS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS. VERY LATE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD THE AREA...WITH INCREASING NE WINDS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A POSSIBLE SHORT SCA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BEFORE THIS TIME...WINDS WILL VEER FROM E TO S THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS. AS THE WINDS VEER THEY WILL INCREASE AS WELL...BECOMING 15-20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND THESE WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NC WATERS. A SHORT DURATION SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY AND IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER THROUGH MONDAY TO THE SW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SEAS MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE FALLING AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE LATE. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE WATERS DURING WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS...LIGHT NW WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS...BECOMING VARIABLE WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE SW LATE...BUT STILL AT SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS. A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY...LEFTOVERS FROM THE MORE STRONGLY FORCED SEAS ON MONDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO 2-3 FT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MID-WEEK. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA/JDW NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...TRA MARINE...TRA/JDW  FXUS62 KILM 241939 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 339 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NORTH OF THE AREA BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AS A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FROPA. AXIS OF ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NNW TO SSE AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST WHILE REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL ON TRACK TO SEE TEMPERATURES TOP OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S. THE NEAR TERM WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE COOL AND DRY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY ATYPICAL TEMPERATURE CURVE WITH READINGS INCREASING TOWARDS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES US LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...OR 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND ON TAP WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT PERIODS OF CONVECTION LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY WILL BEGIN DRY BUT CLOUDY...AS A WARM FRONT DRAPED AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST FROM THE MIDWEST AND LIKELY TRACK NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT ITS LEADING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND A VERY WET COLUMN WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS CLIMBING TOWARDS 1.75 INCHES. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION TO AN UPPER JET WILL TRANSLATE OVERHEAD. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK UNTIL AFTER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT 0-3 KM SRH WILL CLIMB ABOVE 500 M2/S2...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE OTHER PARAMETERS SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO SEVERE (TORNADO) THREAT LOCALLY. HODOGRAPHS FEATURE LARGE RIGHT-LOOPING STRUCTURES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A SETUP WHERE A LARGE COMPLEX OF CONVECTION WILL EXIST...WITH EMBEDDED TURNING ELEMENTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...THE SWODY2 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WHILE TORNADOES ARE NOT TRULY EXPECTED...ONE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CROSSING THE HELICITY BOUNDARY OF A WARM FRONT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. FORTUNATELY...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK AND IS THE LIMITING FACTOR SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS TORNADO RISK...PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR LIKELY THANKS TO ENHANCED LIFT DUE TO UPPER SUPPORT...AND RELATIVELY SLOW UPDRAFTS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH AROUND 11 KFT OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE SC COUNTIES IN AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK FOR DAY 2 WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS WELL. EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE PAST MONTH HAS BEEN PRETTY DRY...WE ARE STILL RUNNING AT EXCESS QPF FOR THE LAST 30 AND 60 DAYS...SO THIS TOO WILL NEED TO MONITORED ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THEN STALL NORTH OF THE AREA AS 500MB TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SUGGEST A NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND TRY TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA...BUT WITH THE COLUMN DRYING BEHIND THE SATURDAY SHORTWAVE...WILL NOT SHOW THIS SOLUTION...BUT MAINTAIN THE INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRONT THEN WAVERS BACK TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY...WITH VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE RISK SUNDAY...WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE. SPC SWODY3 HAS A MRGL RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND THE RISK WILL BE DEFINED ALMOST ENTIRELY BY HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPPER AND MID-LEVEL SUPPORT ONCE AGAIN APPEAR FAVORABLE. TORNADO RISK WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN SUNDAY...INSTEAD HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SBCAPE CLIMBS TOWARDS 2000 J/KG THANKS TO VERY STEEP LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND AN END TO ANY CONVECTIVE THREAT. IF THAT ISN'T ENOUGH...A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO ON TAP DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS AND INCREASING RAINFALL...AND WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TOWARDS 70 DEGREES. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGES...AND LOWS WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOW 60S. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY...AND HIGHS WILL POTENTIALLY RISE WELL INTO THE 80S DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT SAGS BACK TO THE SOUTH. WHILE SATURDAY FEATURES WEAK DIURNAL RANGES...SUNDAY'S WILL EXCEED 30 DEGREES AS LOWS DROP TO A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE THE EMPHASIS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. INITIALLY A CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST BECOMES COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN USUAL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED MID LEVEL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION EVENTUALLY VERIFIES...POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. LOWEST EARLY AND LATE. I HAVE ELEVATED VALUES TO LIKELY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE VIA THE AIRMASS INITIALLY THEN THE MOISTURE...MORESO FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT. TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO 10K FEET OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY MORNING. SATURDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. TIMING OF THE PRECIP IS AN ISSUE...SAFE TO SAY IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SURFACE. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL COME AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SHOWERS ALONG WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...EXPECT BENIGN CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 2 FT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...BOTH A WARM FRONT AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THIS PERIOD...LEADING TO A VARIETY OF WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTN...SO WINDS WILL VEER SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BUT WITH INCREASING SPEEDS TO 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AND PERSIST AROUND 15 KTS THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTH...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL AROUND 15 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE ENHANCED SW WINDS...REACHING 3-5 FT. THEY WILL FALL A BIT SUNDAY...AND THEN MORE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS THE OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT PUSHES WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2-3 FT. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WITH BOTH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME OF THESE MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL KEEP A MOSTLY NORTHERN COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATER IN THE PERIOD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL TURN WINDS TO NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 KNOTS POSSIBLY LIGHTER TUESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...REK MARINE...REK/JDW/SHK  FXUS62 KILM 051042 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 641 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...IN A WEATHER PATTERN THAT DOESN'T LOOK MUCH LIKE JUNE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING A LARGE BODY OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS CLOUDINESS HAS PUSHED DOWN TO THE SANTEE RIVER AND MAY EVEN BE ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA WHERE CLOUD DEPTH SHOULD BE GREATEST. LOOK FOR THIS CLOUDINESS TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 930-1100 AM RESULTING IN AN EXPANSIVE CUMULUS DECK BY LATE MORNING. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT NE TO A POSITION OFF THE VA COAST THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FROM THE NW...WITH WARMING 850-500 MB TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE INCREASING DISTANCE TO THE UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WEAKENING WITH TIME. A SEABREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP BY 2-3 PM...BLOWING COUNTER TO THE MAINLY OFFSHORE WIND OTHERWISE IN PLACE. THIS WILL SET UP AN INTERESTING SITUATION WHERE EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE TIP OF CAPE FEAR WHERE CONVERGING SEABREEZES WILL BE HELD NEARLY STATIONARY BY THE SYNOPTIC WIND. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NSSL WRF MODEL SHOWS A PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS BEFORE: A SINGLE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE FEAR. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND UNSUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE THIS KIND OF FORCING TO GET CONVECTION GOING...AND THIS IS MY SINGLE CONVECTIVE "FOCUS AREA" FOR THE DAY. HIGHS 79-84...WARMEST WEST OF I-95. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BY 9 PM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS 64-68...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT LATER SATURDAY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE A GOOD MIX FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME DECENT INSTABILITY INLAND LATE AND I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP SLIGHTLY. 0-6KM SHEAR ISN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 17 KNOTS BUT NOT THE LOWEST VALUE I HAVE SEEN EITHER SO SOME STRONG CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS COULD SPELL TROUBLE AS WELL. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN. WITH PWS DROPPING TO NEAR 1.4 INCHES SUNDAY...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE VALUES TO MESH WITH ADJACENT OFFICES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH POWERED BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH NO APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE. WE CONTINUE TO RAMP UP POPS FROM THE ISOLATED SEA BREEZE/INLAND TROUGH FORCED NUMBERS MONDAY TO GOOD CHANCE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS NUMBERS WITH READINGS SOME THREE TO SEVEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...SATELLITE SHOWS IFR STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THINK IT MAY MIX OUT A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY...SAY AROUND 14Z. UPPER LOW CENTER NOW AROUND VIRGINIA BEACH...SLOWLY ROTATING AWAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ALONG THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY...IN PARTICULAR BRUNSWICK COUNTY WHERE TWO RESULTANTS CONVERGE. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY EVENING IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A NARROW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND...PRODUCING NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 KT THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING VARIABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE TONIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE WEATHER FEATURE. AS WE'VE SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS A 2 FOOT 8-SECOND SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE A SHORT (2-4 SECOND) WAVE THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTH WINDS. THIS SHOULD DIE AWAY THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING MAINLY JUST THE SWELL WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WINDS SATURDAY DICTATED MOSTLY BY THE SEA BREEZE...TEN KNOTS OR LESS. SOMEWHAT OF A CHANGE LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS. A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS DEVELOPS QUICKLY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A SURGE OR TWO THAT MAY INCREASE WINDS FURTHER AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. THE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS RESPOND TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS RISING FROM 2-3 FEET SATURDAY TO 2-4 FEET SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED FIVE FOOTER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IF A SURGE OCCURS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY...FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT TEN KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE AN INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST FLOW...10-15 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER VERY LATE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL RESPOND WITH A HEALTHY 2- 4 FEET DEVELOPING UP FROM THE TEPID 1-3 FEET MONDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...43  FXUS62 KILM 121849 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 249 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CREATE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED CONVECTION TODAY. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM GA HAS BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO WHICH IS LIKELY DOWN TO 2 THINGS. THE EXPANDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE BEST PVA SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH. ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT THERE IS STILL THE OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. STORM MOTION APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH THAT A SINGLE STORM SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAIN BUT 2 STORMS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 10K FT. THUS FAR THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. THIS IS LIKELY DOWN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IN THE 2-3K FT LAYER SEEN ON KLTX VWP. WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS ABATING THINK THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH ONLY A FLATTENED RESULTANT SEA BREEZE PUSHING NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. HOWEVER WITH SUBSIDENCE INCREASING DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND UP BETWEEN 4PM AND 5PM AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD. POST SHORTWAVE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL SUPRESS THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT LOW TOPPED CU MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWS FOR PARTIAL CLEARING OF SKIES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF ANY FORCING. OTHER THAN A CHANCE MEETING OF LINGERING OUTFLOWS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS RATHER LOW. WILL NOT CARRY A MENTIONABLE POP NUMBER TONIGHT BUT DO NOT PLAN ON GOING WITH ZERO EITHER. LOWS WILL END UP ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE CLIMO...WITH READING CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY... DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND... THE WORD FOR THE WEEKEND IS "HOT" - AS UPPER RIDGE BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA HIGH SETS UP OFFSHORE. SATURDAY WILL BE EXTREMELY HOT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C COMBINE WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WARM THE ENTIRE AREA...EVEN TO THE BEACHES...TO 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER. MANY LOCATIONS WILL TOUCH 95 SATURDAY...WITH THE HOTTEST SPOTS REACHING 98. THESE TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S AND LOW 70S TO CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-103 DEGREES - BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT DANGEROUS NONETHELESS. A HEAT-RELATED SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE. EVEN WITH THE CONSIDERABLE HEAT AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY...EXPECT NO CONVECTION THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SUNDAY IS A BIT OF A TRICKIER FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...A SUBTLE WEAKNESS ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY WILL ALLOW A PIECE OF VORT ENERGY TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. HOW FAR THIS FRONT WILL PENETRATE IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS THE RIDGE ALMOST ALWAYS TENDS TO WIN OUT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINING CERTAIN WITH ITS WIND SHIFT...HAVE TO AGREE WITH INHERITED AND SHOW A WIND SHIFT INTO THE NC ZONES OF THE ILM CWA. THERE IS LITTLE COOL ADVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE...SO THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE MORE CAUSED BY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER SUNDAY. ACROSS SC...DO NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN AIR MASS...AND TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WILL CLIMB TO 95-98 INLAND...90-93 AT THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES...SAVE THE FAR NE COUNTIES OF THE AREA...BUT ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE THE HEAT...AND REAL MID- SUMMER HUMID MINS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S ARE FORECAST BOTH NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON SEVERAL DAYS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE AREA WHILE BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE. HIGH THICKNESSES COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST RETURN FLOW IN AN ALREADY HOT ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE DANGEROUS HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. 500MB HEIGHTS ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME 593DM BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE VICINITY...CORRELATING WITH 850MB TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARDS 22C. ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS NEAR-RECORD 850MB TEMPS (THANKFULLY)...BUT SEVERAL DAYS OF 20-22C 850MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH VERY WARM MINS AND A CONTINUED STAGNANT AIRMASS WILL DRIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S EVERY DAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. IN FACT...THIS SEEMS LIKE AN AIR MASS THAT WILL SUPPORT A FEW 100+ DEGREE AIR-TEMPERATURE READINGS NEXT WEEK INLAND...AS WELL AS SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE BEACH NOT FALLING BELOW 80 AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR THANKS TO CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH...WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO WELL OVER 100 DEGREES...AND IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE INLAND FROM THE COAST...BUT EVEN NEAR THE BEACHES IT WILL FEEL LIKE 100 DEGREES MOST AFTNS. THIS IS TRUE SUMMER HEAT...AND WE ASK YOU TO REFER TO THE HEAT SPS FOR MORE INFORMATION. EVEN THOUGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGH...AFTN CONVECTION WILL BE VERY TOUGH TO COME BY AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...AND A STRONG SUBSIDENT CAP TO SURFACE PARCELS. LATE IN THE PERIOD HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO FALL...BUT THE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO QUICK TO BREAK DOWN THESE TYPES OF RIDGES SO WILL TONE DOWN INHERITED POP TO SCHC/SILENT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...WITH ONLY ISOLATED/NONE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. GIVE THE CURRENT CU FIELD...THINK THIS IS A GOOD BET. COVERAGE ONLY WARRANTS A VCSH AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...ANY SHOWER COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY BELOW TWO MILES. GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...CONTINUED SUMMER PATTERN WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND MAINLY VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN WINDS ON THE HIGH END OF THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUMPING SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TODAY WILL RUN A SOLID 3 FT OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 4 FT ACROSS WATERS OPEN TO EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FETCH. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...W/SW WINDS AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...AND EVENTUALLY W/NW LATE SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH DROPS INTO THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND SPEEDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 15-20 KTS...THE HIGHEST DURING THE WKND...AND WILL PUSH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 3-4 FT. WHILE A SE GROUND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT...THE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY CONTROLLED BY THE WIND WAVES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...AS THE WINDS EASE AND BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NW...SPEEDS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KTS REGARDLESS OF DIRECTION. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SWELL AS THE PREDOMINANT WAVE GROUP...AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 - 3FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTH EARLY MONDAY. THIS LEAVES LIGHT WINDS THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...BUT AS BERMUDA HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF THE DIRECTION WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. ON TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ONCE AGAIN...AND SW WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS EARLY MONDAY WILL BE 1- 3 FT...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING 3-4 FT LATE TUESDAY AS THE SW WIND WAVE AMPLIFIES. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...III SHORT TERM...JDW LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43  FXUS62 KILM 072347 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 747 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST VERY EARLY ON SATURDAY...USHERING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A FRONT STALLS ALONG OUR COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE PENDER COUNTY COAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS EVEN OUT BEYOND THE BEACHES ARE WEST OR NORTHWESTERLY IN THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE LOW. HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE COASTLINE WITH RADAR SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN INTENSITY WITH THE INLAND WRAPAROUND SHOWERS EAST OF I-95. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES HEAVILY CAPPED. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY. WEATHER CONDITIONS UPSTREAM ACROSS THE RALEIGH/DURHAM AREA ALREADY INDICATE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FEET...AND THIS SHOULD BE OUR FATE TONIGHT AS WELL. LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM. THERE REALLY ISN'T COLD ADVECTION TO SPEAK OF BEHIND THIS LOW...SO THESE CLOUDS WILL SERVE TO INTERRUPT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH DAYBREAK. ASSUMING MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 18Z GFS AND NAM ARE CORRECT CLOUD DEPTH MAY BECOME MARGINALLY DEEP ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE OR SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA...BUT ACCUMULATING ENOUGH FOR 0.01 INCHES IN THE RAIN GAUGE MIGHT BE TOUGH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 222 PM FRIDAY...CENTRAL WEEKEND HEADLINE REMAINS ADVANCEMENT OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE INTO THE REGION...OFFERING COOLER AND DRIER HOURLY...MAXIMUM...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYBREAK SATURDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME POSITIONED ROUGHLY 125 MILES ENE OF CAPE FEAR...RESULTING IN A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE OUTER WATER...AND OFFSHORE N-NNW WINDS OVER OUR LAND ZONES. THIS MARKS THE ONSET OF DEWPOINT DROPS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE WEEKEND MAKING FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE FEEL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY WRAP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE FEAR EARLY SATURDAY BUT A DRYING TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. MAXIMUMS SATURDAY 85-90...WARMEST WELL INLAND...AND 2-3 DEGREES F WARMER SUNDAY ON MAXIMUMS. THE DRIER AIR MASS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE 60S SUNRISE SUNDAY OVER MOST AREAS...AROUND 70 SC INTERIOR. A DEGREE OR 2 MILDER MONDAY MORNING BUT STILL PLEASANTLY VOID OF HIGH HUMIDITY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 222 PM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER TEXAS FOR SOME TIME STARTS OUT THE PERIOD WITH AN EXTENSION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A DECENT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE CONTINUE WITH GOOD POPS TUESDAY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE EARLY...DROPPING TO SEASONAL NORMALS BY MID AND LATE WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT INTERMITTENT LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL BE FULLY OFFSHORE BY EARLY MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE AOB 8 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. KILM IS CURRENTLY OBSERVING MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND WILL SEE COVERAGE OF LOW CIGS INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...CREATING MVFR/IFR AT ALL TERMINALS. WHILE COULD NOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG AS WELL...EXPECT STRATUS TO PREVAIL. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING -SHRA OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE BUT SHOULD SEE VFR BY LATE MORNING. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AOB 12 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE IS NOW OFF THE PENDER COUNTY COAST. THIS LOW HAS DRAGGED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE BEACHES WITH EARLIER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS NOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA THESE WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST EAST OF CAPE FEAR. THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY (WELL OFFSHORE WHERE WINDS ARE STILL SOUTHWESTERLY) IS REPORTING 5 FOOT SEAS...BUT THESE ARE UNLIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED INSIDE 20 MILES FROM SHORE. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 222 PM FRIDAY...MAIN MARINE HEADLINE REMAINS THE PREVAILING NORTH WIND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THE WIND TRAJECTORY...TAMEST SEA CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE NEAR SHORE...WHEREAS FARTHER OUT AS THE FETCH LENGTH INCREASES...SEAS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BUMPY IN WIND-DEVELOPED CHOP. WINDSPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS FARTHER EAST TO SEA AND THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS-UP. BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE S-SE LIGHTLY. SLIGHTLY BUMPY SATURDAY IN THE EARLY GOING AS RESIDUAL SSW WAVES 3-4 FT EVERY 6 SEC INTERACT WITH NNW WIND CHOP MAKING FOR A PITCHY SPECTRUM. A FEW TSTMS MAY IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS SATURDAY...MAINLY GULF STREAM WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 222 PM FRIDAY...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS MONDAY UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. BY TUESDAY A DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AND IN FACT...THIS WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS TUESDAY...SEAS COULD INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET FOR SOME TIME OTHERWISE THE STANDARD 2-4 FEET SHOULD SUFFICE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...SGL  FXUS62 KILM 251920 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 320 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT STALLED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA WILL OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FINALLY DRIFTING OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT/SEA BREEZE PRODUCE PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. CHALLENGING SETUP THIS AFTN HAS LED TO SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING...WHILE OTHERS HAVE REMAINED DRY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE CWA...AND IS VERY TOUGH TO IDENTIFY ATTM. NORTH WINDS ARE PRESENT WEST OF I-95...BUT THE AIR MASS DIRECTLY ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WIND SHIFT IS NEARLY IDENTICAL...THUS MAKING IDENTIFICATION OF THE FRONT TRICKY. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WELL UPSTREAM ARE MUCH DRIER...OUT NEAR CHARLOTTE...BUT THAT DRIER AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO ADVECT INTO THE ILM CWA. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...A SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND TO ABOUT BURGAW...TO WHITEVILLE...TO KINGSTREE...AND HAS INTERSECTED WITH EARLIER OUTFLOWS AND MAYBE A PIECE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. IT IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL HAVE DEVELOPED. A TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS THESE BOUNDARIES WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO 1000+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY...BUT CONFINED IN THE "LONG SKINNY" TYPE CAPE PROFILE. GFS APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE SITUATION BETTER THAN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE TODAY...AND HAS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING...AT THE SAME TIME THAT PWATS DECREASE. ADDITIONALLY...A 300MB JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AIDING IN LIFT. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND MAYBE BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVE...BEFORE WANING SLOWLY TONIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW LONG CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AFTER DARK WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARIES AND THE INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD PERMIT AT LEAST SHOWERS TO PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK...ESPECIALLY EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. LOCATIONS FROM I-95 AND WEST WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND FINALLY DRAG THE BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CREATE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST...IF NOT ALL...THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COOLER/DRIER SURGE WILL HELP MINS FALL INTO THE UPR 60S WELL INLAND...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 72 ON THE CAPE FEAR COAST...AND AS WARM AS 75 NEAR WINYAH BAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND A SHORT DISTANCE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WILL PULL THIS FRONT BACK INLAND TO A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM ELIZABETHTOWN AND WHITEVILLE TO CENTRAL MARION COUNTY AND KINGSTREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD AGAIN SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. AT AND ABOVE 700 MB A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTAIN CHANNELED VORTICITY BUT 12Z MODELS DO NOT PAINT ANY DISCRETE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN A STRIPE FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST 300 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS...WITH 200 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KNOTS THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS A BIT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP OFFSHORE AND THE 12Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH GEORGIA AS HIGH PRESSURE POKES SOUTHWARD FROM PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY. 15Z SREF STILL PAINTS CAPE OF 750-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA SO I HAVE LEFT 20-30 POPS IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A WEAKENING RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST. REGARDING SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTH WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. TOUGH CALL ON THE PERIOD WHERE WE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS IT SEEMS ANY DAY IS FAIR GAME. FOR NOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SEEMS TO OCCUR LATER IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL I HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. WILDCARD IS THE EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. MANY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE MOMENT BUT A THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE CONSENSUS BUILDING THAT IT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN WHAT FORM IS ANOTHER QUESTION. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY STABLE AND OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FILL IN BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT KILM...WITH LEAST CONFIDENCE AT KFLO/KLBT. MVFR WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH TEMPO IFR IF A CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. ATTM THE BEST CONFIDENCE OF TEMPO IFR WILL BE AT KILM. WINDS WILL BE SE-S THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY AND MAY NOT QUITE REACH THE COAST EVEN BY MORNING...BUT THE WEAK GRADIENT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...WITH IFR MORE LIKELY INLAND. VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE KFLO/KMYR MID MORNING ON. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...STALLED FRONT WELL INLAND OF THE WATERS WILL WAVER AS IT COMBINES WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTN AND EVE...BEFORE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...SO ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THEIR PRESENT S/SE...TO W/NW LATE...SPEEDS WILL BE JUST 5- 10 KTS ALL DIRECTIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE WITHIN THE SEA BREEZE WILL BRIEFLY RISE TO 10-15 KTS BEFORE MORE UNIFORM FLOW TAKES OVER AGAIN TONIGHT. DUE TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...SEAS ARE CREATED PRIMARILY THROUGH 2 SE SWELL GROUPS...THE 9 SEC GROUND SWELL...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT 12 SEC SWELL LEFTOVER FROM WHAT WAS TROPICAL STORM DANNY. THESE SWELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF THE 2-3 FT SEAS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND A SHORT DISTANCE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WILL PULL THIS FRONT BACK INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL AGAIN SLIP SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE CLEAR DOWN TO GEORGIA THURSDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD VEER A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN AN EASTERLY 7-SECOND SWELL AND SOUTHEASTERLY 11-SECOND SWELL. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK EAST TO OCCASIONALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART WITH LITTLE TO DRIVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SYNOPTICALLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS MAY SHOW A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY AS SOME SWELL MAY BE ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM FROM ERIKA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRA NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...MRR  FXUS62 KILM 260601 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 201 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING OFF THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. WITH THE FRONT REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE THE RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS BACKBUILDING/ EXPANDING IN CONVERGENT ZONE AHEAD OF STALLED FRONT ARE BEING AIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF ROBESON AND NW BLADEN COUNTIES. RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 2 OR MORE INCHES. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS IT TRIES TO MAKE INROADS INTO PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION OVERNIGHT. A TRICKY FORECAST AS BOUNDARIES MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL TAP INTO 1000+ J/KG OF INSTABILITY...BUT CONFINED IN THE "LONG SKINNY" TYPE CAPE PROFILE. GFS APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE SITUATION BETTER THAN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE TODAY...AND HAS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING...AT THE SAME TIME THAT PWATS DECREASE. ADDITIONALLY... A 300MB JET STREAK WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE NE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AIDING IN LIFT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND A SHORT DISTANCE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WILL PULL THIS FRONT BACK INLAND TO A POSITION ROUGHLY FROM ELIZABETHTOWN AND WHITEVILLE TO CENTRAL MARION COUNTY AND KINGSTREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD AGAIN SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. AT AND ABOVE 700 MB A TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTAIN CHANNELED VORTICITY BUT 12Z MODELS DO NOT PAINT ANY DISCRETE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN A STRIPE FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST 300 MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS...WITH 200 MB WINDS EXCEEDING 70 KNOTS THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS A BIT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD SLIP OFFSHORE AND THE 12Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH GEORGIA AS HIGH PRESSURE POKES SOUTHWARD FROM PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO COOL TEMPERATURES AND A LOWER CHANCE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY. 15Z SREF STILL PAINTS CAPE OF 750-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA SO I HAVE LEFT 20-30 POPS IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A WEAKENING RIDGE OUT WEST AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST. REGARDING SURFACE FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE NORTH WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND THE EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. TOUGH CALL ON THE PERIOD WHERE WE WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS IT SEEMS ANY DAY IS FAIR GAME. FOR NOW THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SEEMS TO OCCUR LATER IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL I HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS. WILD CARD IS THE EVOLUTION OF ERIKA. MANY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE MOMENT BUT A THERE IS AT LEAST A LITTLE CONSENSUS BUILDING THAT IT WILL BE LOCATED IN THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN WHAT FORM IS ANOTHER QUESTION. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY STABLE AND OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 06Z...THUNDERSTORMS KEEP BACKBUILDING/EXPANDING NEAR THE KLBT TERMINAL WHERE IFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 08-09Z. OTHERWISE...WILL CONFINE ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO VCSH AT KCRE/KMYR. EXPECT MVFR/IFR FOG TO DEVELOP AT KLBT AND KFLO 09-13Z. KIND OF AT TRICKY FORECAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAM DOES NOT PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH...WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS GIVES US POST FRONTAL NORTHEAST FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MAY HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES AROUND THE 12Z TAF TIME IF THE GFS STARTS TRENDING IN THE NAM'S DIRECTION. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE S AND SW. DUE TO THESE LIGHT WINDS...SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 2 FT. AN ESE SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS REMAINS. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STALLED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND A SHORT DISTANCE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AT DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION WILL PULL THIS FRONT BACK INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL AGAIN SLIP SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE CLEAR DOWN TO GEORGIA THURSDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TURN SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD VEER A LITTLE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY NEARSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD IN AN EASTERLY 7-SECOND SWELL AND SOUTHEASTERLY 11-SECOND SWELL. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...RELATIVELY WEAK EAST TO OCCASIONALLY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT OFFSHORE. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART WITH LITTLE TO DRIVE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SYNOPTICALLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LOWER END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS MAY SHOW A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY AS SOME SWELL MAY BE ADDED TO THE SPECTRUM FROM ERIKA. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...TRA LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...RJD/DL  FXUS62 KILM 261518 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1116 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT WILL OSCILLATE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE...REMAINING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRUGGLE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA EARLY NEXT WEEK... IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT IMPACTS IF ANY WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COMPLEX PATTERN WILL LEAD TO AN ACTIVE DAY AND DIFFICULT FORECAST ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST WITH A DEEP TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE EAST. BENEATH THIS TROUGH...A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HARD TO TRULY IDENTIFY THE FRONT SINCE IT IS SO WEAK...BUT IT APPEARS BASED OFF DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND THE WIND SHIFT THAT IT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE SOUTH COAST. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS BOUNDARY TODAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS AFTN. SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION THIS AFTN IS FORECAST TO PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE WEST WHERE IT WILL OSCILLATE TODAY. WEST OF THIS FRONT...THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY SO AREAS WEST OF I-95 SHOULD REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EAST OF THIS FRONT HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS THE SEA BREEZE...THIS FRONT...AND ANY OUTFLOWS SERVE AS CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES. SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...WHICH WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVE THANKS TO HEIGHT FALLS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WITHIN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.9 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACH 12000 FT...AND UPDRAFTS WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING 300 MB JET STREAK ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 10- 15 KTS TODAY...BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE AS NOTED BY SHORT CORFIDI VECTORS. ALL OF THIS DESCRIBES AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR CONVECTION WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...ASSUMING THE FRONT DOES LIFT BACK NORTH AS EXPECTED AND CLOUD COVER CAN DECREASE...WHICH IS PROGGED ON THE TOTAL CLOUD PRODUCT. A RECENT DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE ADDITION OF A MRGL RISK FROM SPC FOR TODAY. VERY HIGH PWAT AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIP LOADING AND WET DOWNBURSTS THIS AFTN...ALSO AIDED BY 0-3 KM THETA-E DIFFERENCES APPROACHING 30K...SLIGHTLY SHORT OF THE 35K THRESHOLD...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT IT IS A SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL NONETHELESS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE...NAMELY THE NSSL WRF AND ARW WHICH PERFORMED THE BEST ON TUESDAY...SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER DARK...AIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AND WHAT SHOULD BE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE RESIDUAL LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POP THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKNING FORCING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO WANE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THANKS TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP...RISING TO AROUND 90 WELL INLAND...BUT STAYING IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...69-70 INLAND AND 72-74 NEAR THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY...FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE OFF OR NEAR THE COAST BUT BASICALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE NC/SC COAST WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN PLACE INLAND IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WHILE ALONG THE COAST AND EASTWARD OVER THE WATERS...WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE SOUTHERLY. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM SW TO NE TO OUR WEST WITH A DEEP SW FLOW WITH BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALIGNED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TO OUR EAST AND WITH BEST JET ENERGY RIDING OFF TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF AND TRIES TO CUT OFF. THIS MAY ACT TO PULL TROUGH BACK TO THE WEST AND INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GREATER ON SHORE PUSH OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS FRI. OVERALL EXPECT A DECENT FLOW OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON THURS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RETURNING ON FRI WITH GREATER ON SHORE E-SE FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH DOWN THE EAST COAST AND LOWER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW ...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MAY SEE IT PULLED BACK WEST WITH AN INCREASING ON SHORE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS AROUND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE. AS LOW LIFTS UP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND GREATER CHC OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURS. MAY ALSO SEE ERIKA OR REMNANTS OF ERIKA COME INTO PLAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE ERIKA WILL REACH THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MAY GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. MAX TEMPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO...MID 80S WITH A CLIMB BACK UP TOWARD 90 EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 12Z...A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS PASSED WITH PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE HAS BEEN SCT/BKN MVFR/IFR CIGS BUT 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THIS IS DISSIPATING OVERALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NC. WINDS ARE LIGHT NW-NE TERMINAL WIDE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE-S BY AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHILE REMAINING E AT KFLO/KLBT THIS MORNING. HI RES MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP 17-18Z. THIS SHOULD TIME WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE AND MAX HEATING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FLARE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S OF KMYR-KFLO. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MVFR LIKELY WITH ANY ACTIVITY...WITH TEMPO IFR IF A CELL MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. THE PASSAGE OF THE IMPULSE THIS EVENING SHOULD END PRECIPITATION. A MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS AT KFLO/KLBT. SOME SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THUS MVFR CIGS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT JUST INLAND FROM THE WATERS WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY...SO THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND WILL AT TIMES FLUCTUATE DIRECTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD SETTLE TO A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE SEA BREEZE WHERE SPEEDS WILL RISE TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. AN ESE 9 TO 11 SECOND SWELL WILL BE PRESENT. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIPS SOUTH AND EAST. N-NE FLOW BEHIND FRONT ON THURS WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE THROUGH FRI. PREVAILING FLOW WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE ON SHORE FLOW DUE TO SEA BREEZE EACH AFTN. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS. A LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL MIXING IN WITH LOW END WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AFTN BUT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO 11 SEC BY FRI EVE. ON SHORE PUSH WILL GIVE A SLIGHT RISE TO SEAS BY LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WEAK EAST TO OCCASIONALLY NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE WINDS MAY TAKE ON MORE OF A SE-S DIRECTION REMAINING BASICALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH A SLIGHT SPIKE EACH AFTN IN SEA BREEZE. LIGHT ON SHORE PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED LONGER PERIOD SE SWELL MIXING IN FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA IN THE ATLANTIC. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WEISS SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...MRR  FXUS62 KILM 131855 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 255 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorms may be severe ahead of a cold front which will move across the area this evening. Another cold front will move across the area saturday evening with perhaps some sprinkles across portions of the area. Cooler temperatures and drier air are expected behind this front for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will rise beginning Tuesday with a risk for showers and thunderstorms returning mid and late week as a front stalls across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Thunderstorms blossoming across the area this aftn...and a busy evening for convection remains on track. Two areas of thunderstorms have developed slowly today...and these are expected to congeal into a larger area of convection as the aftn wears into evening. Morning cloud cover never quite eroded...but enough breaks developed to allow instability to rapidly increase...and storms have developed along differential heating boundaries between regions of different cloud thicknesses. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis has MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg along the coast...slightly lower inland...with PWATS over 1.6 inches and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 20-30 kt. A cold front approaching from the west is on the western edge of the CWA...and in a continuing-to- destabilize environment will serve as a catalyst for widespread tstms through the evening. SPC maintained the Slight Risk in the SWODY1...and recently issued an MCD with a 40% chance for a watch later today. Do not expect widespread severe weather today...but strong lift aided both by surface features and diffluence within an upper jet may produce isolated large hail...and as storms organize thanks to the aforementioned shear and high PWAT...damaging winds gusts will become the primary threat. 4 km NSSL WRF initialized quite well at 18z (12z run) and is favored for the next few hours. Cold front will race across the area this evening bringing an end to convection late this evening. Dry air will rapidly follow the front...and sky conditions will improve...becoming mostly clear late tonight. Broad high pressure behind the front builds across the area reducing the pressure gradient and winds will drop off to near calm late. Forecast profiles suggest lingering near-surface saturation...likely aided by moistened soils from today's rainfall. Crossover temps will likely be met as mins drop to around 60 well inland...65 at the coast...and local UPS Fog procedure develops areas of fog across the eastern half of the CWA. Have added this to the wx grids...while inland areas will likely be too dry for any fog tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM friday...A secondary cold front will move across the forecast area Sat eve. The deep moisture will already have been swept well offshore by this time. However...there will be a shallow layer of moisture through about 6-7 kft along with shallow frontal lift. thus...will include mention of sprinkles for portions of the area...mainly across southeast north Carolina...in closest proximity to the pivoting upper trough. Behind this second front...the airmass will be much less humid and cooler as a northerly wind takes hold. High pressure to the west will build across the area Sun and Sun night. A weak trough will move across the area late Sun night to reinforce the cooler and drier air. highs Sat will be in the mid 80s...cooling to the mid 70s on Sun. Lows Sat night and Sun night will be in the 50s...coolest Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...East-west elongated high over the area on Monday making for light winds and thus fairly shallow mixing. 850mb temperatures only around 8C bringing highs a bit shy of climo. Good WAA gets underway Monday night to bring considerable increase in cloud cover and so a night not as cool as the preceding. High pressure winds up off the coast by Tuesday allowing for more WAA and moisture increase while seabreeze and a few weak upper disturbances provide lift sufficient for low end chance POPs. Discounting the overly wet looking ECMWF at this time given that it's vort maxes are similarly weak. Cold front dropping into the area late Wednesday possibly accompanied by more energy aloft. Wednesday may offer the best rain chances of the period as some drying is expected behind the front on Thursday. This could be short-lived however as the new airmass may start getting overrun by the next southern branch system just beyond. Previously we were still carrying rain chances on Thursday and will leave in at this time since the late period system will be of very low amplitude and thus possibly faster than progged. After our slightly cool Monday temperatures will return to above normal, with the larger deviations at night due to cloud cover. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 18Z...Showers and thunderstorms beginning to blossom across the area...and an active aftn/evening is forecast. Storms are expected to be strongest and most concentrated along the coast and have tempo IFR for vsby with gusty winds...with mvfr inland thanks to the expected lighter coverage and intensity. Convection will persist through nightfall before a cold front moves offshore. This front will bring an end to any storms...and also produce a wind shift from the current SW winds at 10-15 kt...to NW at 5-10 kt. Behind this front sky conditions will clear and the atmosphere will dry out...but lingering moisture may produce fog...with IFR possible again at the coastal terminals. Confidence is lower inland where drying will be more robust. Any fog will burn off quickly by daybreak Saturday with VFR forecast thereafter. Extended outlook...VFR through Monday. Low confidence for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Cold front approaching from the west is keeping the coastal waters firmly in the warm sector this aftn...with winds remaining predominantly from the SW at 10-15 kt. The exception is in the near-shore waters where a sea breeze has caused a local backing to the South along with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas of 2-4 ft will persist until the cold frontal passage this evening...and this will also be accompanied by increasing showers and thunderstorms. Once this front moves offshore...winds will shift quickly to the NW...but with much lower speeds of 5-10 ktthanks to high pressure ridging in from the west. Seas will fall on these decreasing and offshore winds...becoming 1-2 ft by daybreak Saturday. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...A secondary cold front will swing across the waters Sat eve. Winds will start the day Sat from the north in the wake of earlier cold front and then back to sw and increase to 15 to 20 kt. Then in the wake of the secondary cold front...the wind direction will shift to n and may briefly reach around 20 kt late Sat night and early Sun morning in northerly surge. Winds will lighten up and back to nw and w during Sun and Sun eve as high pressure grows closer. Another trough swinging across the area Sun night should shift winds back to the north with wind speeds increasing toward morning in a developing weak surge. Seas will be up to 3 to 5 ft in the strongest surge late Sat night and Sun morning. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Plenty of change in wind direction slated for Monday. Lucking wind speeds will remain low so even if wave faces get a bit steep the overall wave height will remain capped at 3 ft. An east-west elongated high will initially be stretched across the area but migrating to an offshore position as Monday progresses, leading to the veering flow. With the high well off the coast by Tuesday a south to southwesterly flow will become established. Wave periods should relax slightly as a swell component does the same. A few 4 foot seas may impinge upon the outer waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...JDW/DL  FXUS62 KILM 180740 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 340 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture will continue to stream northward across the Carolinas much of the period, bringing humid conditions and rain chances each day, along with occasional sunshine between daytime showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Low pressure will continue to lift north from the western Gulf Coast states remaining just east of the Mississippi River. At the same time, Atlantic Ridge will remain to the east. A deep southerly flow between these two systems will continue to pump plenty of tropical moisture into the Coastal Carolinas today through tonight. Pcp water values remain well above normal, above 2 inches through tonight. Models are showing fairly widespread activity through today in a constant feed of moisture from the Atlantic waters, but show greatest QPF toward daybreak on Sat along the coast as better jet dynamics and mid to upper level support runs up through the area. Basically will see clouds and intermittent showers, some with heavy rain, along with isolated thunderstorms to continue through today into tonight. Tough to say exactly where at any given hour, but there should be a diurnal trend with showers more numerous along the coast through the overnight into early morning hours and favoring an increase inland in the afternoon. The heavier showers will produce some ponding of water on the roadways and you should remain alert for any advisories for any flood issues. Temps will once again show little diurnal range with overnight lows in the low 70s most places and rebounding to near 80 in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Probabilities of precipitation, across the board, will remain elevated through the weekend. Not to say all moments of Saturday and Sunday will be washed out, but outdoor plans should include knowing, that occasional heavy rain with isolated lightning strikes will roam the region, with spots of ponding water on roadways introducing a hydro-planing peril. Jet-max rising north early Saturday may enhance rain- rates and coverage onto the coast and Cape Fear. Tropical infusion and balmy maritime flow will maintain a humid feel as gradually rising SSTs keep dewpoint values lofty. The MUCAPE/MLCAPE trends support isolated thunderstorms through the weekend. Pockets of stronger diabatic heating will shine as a significant player in spurring afternoon convection. It should not come as a shock that weekend FLS or SPS issuances may be needed for training or stronger cells, but wind shear profiles not supporting an organized severe TSTM threat this weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...More of this seemingly ever-persistent tropical airmass will exist much of the extended, although there may at least be breaks in the showers during the long term. Monday into early Tuesday the ridge to the east is still progged to expand to the west followed by some drying in the mid-level which will likely lead to reduced, but still non- zero POP. However, by late Tuesday and through Wednesday the ridge retreats in response to mid-level troughing digging down from the north, allowing for a return/surge of tropical moisture and once again periods of showers/tstms with heavy rainfall. There may finally be an end to this extended period of tropical air however, as this same trough that causes an uptick in rainfall potential, will drive a cold front into the area Thursday which should push through bringing some drier air late in the period. However, it is May, and this front could get hung up across the Carolinas, potentially producing even more convection chances as it serves as a focus in a high PWAT airmass. Will show lowered POP by Thursday, but cannot rule out tropical showers/tstms any day during the period. Temps will be in the low 80s for highs nearly every day, with mins right around 70, as the cloudy and humid airmass prevent large diurnal ranges. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...Low confidence forecast. Overall will see periods of VFR with periods of MVFR/VCSH today into tonight in a deep tropical moisture feed from the Atlantic waters to the south. Models show fairly good coverage today into tonight with MVFR likely. Have not mentioned any thunderstorms as storms should be isolated. Expect gusty S-SE winds at coastal terminals through tonight. Extended Outlook...Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys associated with tropical type showers and tstorms through the period. Activity will be more numerous along the coast pre-dawn hours thru mid-morning hours each day, then translate to the inland terminals midday-early evening. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Southerly flow up to 15 to 20 kts will continue around the western periphery of the Bermuda High through tonight. This persistent southerly push will keep seas above SCA thresholds through tonight into Saturday. Seas will remain above 6 ft in outer waters through tonight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Seas will remain in the 4-7 foot range and highest offshore through Saturday evening in blustery S winds. It appears that SCA flags may be allowed to drop by Sunday daybreak, as the low interacting with high pressure offshore, moves off to the north, loosening the pressure gradient along the Carolina coast. Hence Sunday the better marine day in terms of winds and seas, but throughout the weekend mariners should expected scattered showers and TSTMS, and radar updates are recommended. General shower and storm movement this weekend from south to north. Seas this weekend dominated by S-SSE waves every 7-8 seconds mixed with moderate southerly chop. Downpours will reduce local visibility to 1 NM or less on occasion. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Bermuda type high pressure offshore will be the primary feature driving marine conditions into the middle of next week. S/SW winds around this feature will be 10-15 kts with little fluctuation through the period. This persistent SW flow and long fetch around the high will create a 7-8 sec dominant wave period, with amplitudes shrinking slightly into next week. A swell deamplifies, wave heights will as well, becoming 3-5 ft Monday, and 3-4 ft Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 12 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RGZ