FXUS63 KICT 010753 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 253 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. JET STREAM WILL CONCENTRATE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER TODAY ACROSS NEBRASKA DOWN INTO WESTERN KS IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH AND MOIST PLUME. A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...HELPING ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS WHERE HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN EASTERN KS...POSSIBLY LAYING OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN OUR AREA. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 2000-4000 J/KG) IS PROGGED FRIDAY PM/EVE WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INDICATED. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THAT TIMEFRAME COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. NAM-WRF/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHERE IT LOOKS TO STALL. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING EASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASE WITH THIS FRONT IN OUR AREA...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. JMC .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE PROGGED IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...AND SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION UNDERNEATH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. DIFFICULT TO TIME WEAK PERTURBATIONS RIDING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO KANSAS...AND NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETS WILL HELP INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH IT WON'T BE RAINY THE ENTIRE TIME...MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES COULD AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL HIGHS EXPECTED WITH EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY MOIST FLOW AND RAIN/CLOUD PROSPECTS. JMC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013 FIRST ISSUE WITH THE TAF PERIOD IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY BR IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS PARTICULARLY FOR KCNU AND KHUT. THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND...AND LIGHT WINDS ARE HELPING AID IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OF ONLY DROPPING VIS SLIGHTLY...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE MODIFIED WHEN IN FACT BR STARTS TO DEVELOP. SECOND ISSUE ARE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE LAST PART OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ACTIVITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY COULD OCCUR FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER IT IS UNCERTAIN IF/WHEN THESE STORMS WOULD IMPACT KSLN AND KRSL. THEREFORE SIMPLY THE MENTION OF VCTS HAS BEEN PLACED BEGINNING FOR KSLN AT 21Z THEN AT 23Z FOR KRSL. EXPECT THAT FURTHER TWEAKS WILL BE MADE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. VP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 90 73 92 73 / 10 30 30 30 HUTCHINSON 89 72 92 72 / 10 40 30 30 NEWTON 88 71 91 72 / 10 40 30 30 ELDORADO 88 71 91 72 / 10 40 30 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 90 73 93 74 / 0 30 20 30 RUSSELL 91 70 92 71 / 30 50 20 30 GREAT BEND 91 70 92 71 / 30 50 20 30 SALINA 89 71 91 71 / 30 50 30 50 MCPHERSON 89 71 91 71 / 10 50 30 40 COFFEYVILLE 91 72 92 74 / 0 30 40 40 CHANUTE 89 71 90 72 / 10 40 50 40 IOLA 88 69 89 72 / 10 40 50 50 PARSONS-KPPF 89 71 91 74 / 0 40 40 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 060807 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 307 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014 A VERY ACTIVE EARLY JUNE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A FLATTENED SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. VARIOUS...DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES...WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH TODAY...WITH POSSIBLE REMNANT HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO EXPAND INTO ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT TARGETS SOUTHERN KANSAS WHERE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 KM OR GREATER ARE LIKELY WITH PW'S OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS VERY HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY SETUP WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KS WHERE THEY HAVE HAD MORE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 1-2 WEEKS. WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO MATCH UP WITH WFO'S TULSA AND SPRINGFIELD FOR TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY. RELATIVELY HIGHER STORM CHANCES WILL BE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UPPER TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WILL HELP SEND SOME COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. JMC .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 6 2014 AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. 00Z/6TH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW MID TEENS CELSIUS 850 DEWPOINTS RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKER WAVE IS PROGGED TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOULD MODIFY TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK. JMC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014 THE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH KANSAS FROM THE WEST WHICH COULD CAUSE SHOWER/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. JAKUB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 83 69 82 63 / 60 90 70 40 HUTCHINSON 82 68 80 62 / 60 80 60 30 NEWTON 81 66 81 64 / 60 80 70 30 ELDORADO 80 67 81 64 / 60 80 70 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 82 70 83 65 / 60 90 70 50 RUSSELL 83 65 78 59 / 50 70 50 20 GREAT BEND 83 65 78 60 / 50 80 60 20 SALINA 83 67 80 61 / 50 70 60 20 MCPHERSON 82 66 79 62 / 50 80 60 20 COFFEYVILLE 81 70 83 66 / 50 90 80 50 CHANUTE 80 69 81 64 / 40 80 80 50 IOLA 80 69 80 64 / 40 80 80 50 PARSONS-KPPF 81 70 83 65 / 40 90 80 50 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-093>096-098>100. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 302005 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 305 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 UPPER TROUGHING WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT...STRETCHING FROM IOWA TO NORTHWEST KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AFTER 22Z FROM THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE/STRONG HEATING ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN VERY WARM. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING...A PROGGED 40 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THUNDERTORM COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE 01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME. EXTREME INSTABILITY (MLCAPES 3000-4500 J/KG) WILL BE IN PLACE LATE THIS PM/EARLY EVE...AS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER FLOW INCREASES DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 30-40 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS SEVERE MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES LATE THIS PM/EARLY EVE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE LATER IN THE EVE/OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT BECOMING HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING. THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST BRIEF STORM ECHO TRAINING IN THIS AREA...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING TO 3-4 KM AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW'S OF 1.75-2.40 INCHES. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN SW/SCNTRL KS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS OUT LATE TONIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL HOLD ONTO LINGERING STORM CHANCES IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH CHANCES DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE OUR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY-THURSDAY. JMC .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 THE MEAN UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE BROAD UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WITH A BELT OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. SEMI-PERSISTENT LEE TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN PROSPECTS FOR STORM COMPLEXES IS PROGGED JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) APPEAR WARRANTED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...WITH SEASONALLY VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE. JMC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 THE FRONT SITUATED FROM NEAR MARYSVILLE SW TO NEAR DDC WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A DECENT CAP IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND STORMS WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO FIRE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS SET IN THE CAP BEGINS TO ERODE. STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AT THIS TIME THE AREAL CO VERGE LOOKS TO BE RATHER EXTENSIVE AND VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A MAIN ISSUE. HOWEVER...HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES AND WINDS TO NEAR 70 ARE POSSIBLE. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...RISING CIGS SHOULD BE NOTED WITH WINDS FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 69 84 64 82 / 80 30 10 10 HUTCHINSON 67 86 62 82 / 70 20 10 10 NEWTON 68 84 62 81 / 60 20 10 10 ELDORADO 67 83 63 81 / 60 30 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 84 65 83 / 80 50 20 10 RUSSELL 63 84 58 81 / 20 10 10 0 GREAT BEND 63 84 59 81 / 30 20 10 0 SALINA 66 85 59 82 / 30 10 10 0 MCPHERSON 66 85 61 81 / 50 10 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 70 84 66 83 / 50 40 30 10 CHANUTE 69 83 64 81 / 50 30 10 10 IOLA 69 82 63 80 / 50 20 10 10 PARSONS-KPPF 70 83 65 82 / 50 30 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 152016 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 316 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNFICANT LULL THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR GREATER AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY- FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. JMC .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. JMC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH KCNU DURING THE NIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE AT KCNU...WITH RAIN SHOWERS FLIRTING WITH KICT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOIST/UPSLOPE AIRMASS NORTH OF FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE LOW CLOUDS...PROBABLY MVFR...PSBLY IFR...TOWARDS DAYBREAK AT MOST LOCATIONS. -HOWERTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 40 50 20 20 HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 30 20 20 20 NEWTON 67 82 68 85 / 40 40 20 20 ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 50 60 30 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 50 60 40 40 RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 20 10 20 10 GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 20 20 20 10 SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 20 20 20 20 MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 30 20 20 20 COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 70 70 60 60 CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 70 60 60 60 IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 70 60 50 60 PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 70 70 60 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 152335 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 635 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE...WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WASHING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUSLY RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS (~1.75 IN.) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. LATEST SPC HRRR VERSION PUSHES CURRENT CONVECTION OUT OF SOUTHEAST KS BY MID EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT LULL THEREAFTER. WOULD THINK EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD...COULD IGNITE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ~4KM OR GREATER AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS FAVOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. IN ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST OR TWO. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: WITH REGARD TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HEADING INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF OFFER VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTHEAST KS SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE MORE CORRECT...ALTHOUGH THE NAM APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE ECMWF INDICATES ANY IMPACTS TO SOUTHEAST KS WOULD NOT COME UNTIL FRIDAY- FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOW AT THIS JUNCTURE. NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BUT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. JMC .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE PROGGED TO PUSH WELL EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG/AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF WAS STRONGER WITH THE AMPLIFCATION...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT HAS AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS DID NOT AMPLIFY THE SHORTWAVE AS MUCH...AND AS A RESULT BRINGS THE FRONT TO CENTRAL KS NEAR I-70 BEFORE STALLING THE BOUNDARY. A COMPROMISE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING THE FRONT INTO THE HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST...COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. JMC && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT...AS SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT RESIDES OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. JAKUB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 68 83 69 86 / 40 50 20 20 HUTCHINSON 66 83 67 87 / 30 20 20 20 NEWTON 67 82 68 85 / 40 40 20 20 ELDORADO 68 82 69 85 / 50 60 30 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 69 83 70 85 / 50 60 40 40 RUSSELL 63 83 66 88 / 20 10 20 10 GREAT BEND 64 83 66 88 / 20 20 20 10 SALINA 66 83 68 87 / 20 20 20 20 MCPHERSON 66 83 68 87 / 30 20 20 20 COFFEYVILLE 70 82 71 82 / 70 70 60 60 CHANUTE 69 82 70 83 / 70 60 60 60 IOLA 69 82 69 83 / 70 60 50 60 PARSONS-KPPF 70 82 71 83 / 70 70 60 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 060805 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 305 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN STARTING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUING PERIODICALLY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TODAY WILL HELP DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY 00Z...THE NAM/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DRIVING THE FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO POOL INTO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. MINIMAL CINH/STRONG BUOYANCY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES OR THE 99TH PERCENTILE THIS EVENING WHILE THE LAYER WARM CLOUD DEPTH DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS DEEP CLOUD LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AS H9-H75 FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND MESO-BETA ELEMENT VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY. TUE-WED...HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF KANSAS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION INCLUDING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE MORE PRONOUNCED H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MAINLY SE KANSAS WHILE THE NAM WOULD INCLUDE MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY AROUND 17-18Z/MON. CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON AFTERNOON. SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z. EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT. KETCHAM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 89 65 74 62 / 70 90 40 50 HUTCHINSON 88 63 75 60 / 80 90 30 30 NEWTON 88 63 73 61 / 80 90 40 40 ELDORADO 89 65 73 62 / 70 90 50 50 WINFIELD-KWLD 91 65 74 63 / 70 90 60 60 RUSSELL 83 61 77 57 / 80 50 10 10 GREAT BEND 84 61 76 59 / 80 60 10 20 SALINA 87 64 77 60 / 90 80 10 20 MCPHERSON 87 62 75 60 / 80 80 20 30 COFFEYVILLE 90 69 75 65 / 50 90 80 90 CHANUTE 89 67 73 65 / 70 90 80 80 IOLA 89 67 72 64 / 70 90 70 80 PARSONS-KPPF 89 68 74 65 / 60 90 80 90 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ069>072-083-091>096-098>100. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 041955 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 255 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE LOW LVL MOISTURE/TRANSPORT 310- 315K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. PWATS AROUND 150+ PERCENT OF NORMAL COMBINED WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4300M SHOULD RESULT IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE EFFECTIVE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SINK WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WED AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAINTAINED SOME POPS ACROSS MAINLY SE KS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TRENDED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN ON WED WITH A SEASONABLY COOL POST- FRONTAL REGIME ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THU-FRI...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS SHOULD RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU-FRI. MAINTAINED LOW POPS THU NIGHT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS CLIPPING A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MIGRATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS FRI NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND MAINTAINED LOW POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 A PERSISTENT MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 PRIMARY ATTENTION-GETTER IS THAT OF ISOLD TSRA SLOWLY INCRG LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVE. THRU ~05/03Z CIGS & VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR IN NEARLY ALL AREAS WITH ANY MVFR VSBYS TO BE CONFINED TO ISOLD TSRA. FROM 03-06Z COVERAGE SHOULD REALLY INCREASE AS WEAK SFC LOW POSITIONED FROM WRN KS TO W TX CONTINUES TO ADVECT INCREASING MSTR ACRS CNTRL & SC KS. AT THIS TIME GREATEST STG/SVR TSRA WOULD OCCUR OVER WRN KS FOR MOST OF THE 04/18Z TAF CYCLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 69 91 74 94 / 70 20 10 10 HUTCHINSON 67 90 71 95 / 80 20 10 10 NEWTON 66 89 71 93 / 80 30 10 10 ELDORADO 67 90 74 93 / 70 40 10 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 70 93 73 94 / 70 20 10 10 RUSSELL 66 87 68 95 / 80 20 10 10 GREAT BEND 67 88 71 96 / 60 20 10 10 SALINA 67 86 72 94 / 90 30 10 10 MCPHERSON 68 88 71 94 / 90 30 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 69 90 73 93 / 70 60 20 10 CHANUTE 69 88 72 91 / 70 60 20 10 IOLA 68 87 72 90 / 70 60 30 10 PARSONS-KPPF 71 88 75 92 / 70 60 20 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 060549 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1149 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 ...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 A BROAD SFC TROF EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CO TO NW NM IS PRODUCING WARMING SLY FLOW ACROSS THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD...AS TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 30S & LOWER 40S. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL & NORTH-CENTRAL KS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 PREDOMINANTLY DAMP & DREARY WEATHER WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 3 OR 4 MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A CONVEYOR BELT MANNER. THE 1ST SHORTWAVE THAT...THIS AFTERNOON...WAS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO EASTERN NM...IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR AS IT LIFTS E/NE OVER WESTERN KS. THE 2ND & MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM WED EVENING & MAY EXPERIENCE SLIGHT CYCLOGENESIS AS IT...TOO... LIFTS E/NE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES EARLY THU MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT CROSSES KS THU & THU NIGHT. THE 3RD SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION LATE THU NIGHT & STRENGTHEN AS IT SURGES E TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRI THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI NIGHT & SAT. THIS WOULD ENABLE THE SFC TROF TO REMAIN GENERALLY SITUATED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/WESTERN PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT THU MORNING. AS THE 3RD & STRONGEST SHORTWAVE APPROACHES...THEN CROSSES...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEAK A SFC CYCLONE WILL ATTEMPT TO FORM NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER THU AFTERNOON THEN LIFT NE ACROSS EASTERN KS THU NIGHT. AS THE WEAK SFC CYCLONE CROSSES KS A WARM FRONT WOULD DEVELOP FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHERN MO WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS & PUSH E ACROSS KS THU NIGHT & FRI. UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES...AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN & LIGHT DRIZZLE WOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES SETTLING TO ~32F VERY EARLY WED MORNING...SOME LIGHT VERY FREEZING RAIN/LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP. AS THE 1ST SHORTWAVE SHEARING THIS INITIAL ROUND OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WED AFTERNOON. INTERMISSION WILL BE BRIEF FOR AS THE 2ND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WED NIGHT ALL PRECIP WOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. WITH THE SE-MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING KS A CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT RAIN...TO LIGHT SNOW WOULD OCCUR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF A LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW AS THE TRANSITION OCCURS. PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY WED NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OCCURRING THU & THU NIGHT AS THE EWD-MOVING SFC CYCLONE INDUCES PRONOUNCED WRAP-AROUND ACROSS THE AREA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED THU & THU NIGHT SO STAY TUNED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 COLDER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS AFFECTING US MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. JUST HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GET IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW COVER. MOREOVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SUPPORTS THE ADVECTION OF THIS COLD AIR IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO COME AS FAR SOUTH...MOVING MORE IN AN EASTERLY FASHION ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A MORE MODERATE APPROACH TO THE COOL DOWN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE JAN 5 2016 CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. GOES MVFR AND IFR PROBABILITIES SHOW A SWATH OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ADVECTING UP INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FROM THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THESE IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KRSL/KSLN/KGBD/KHUT BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. KICT LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON THE FRINGE OF THESE CEILINGS AT THE MOMENT...BUT EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN BREEZY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL DROP...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES AT LOW END MVFR FOR NOW. MODELS HINT TOWARDS IFR CEILINGS ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIFR. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OF THIS DETERIORATION OUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING...HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE MENTIONS OF THIS TREND. JMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 32 41 37 45 / 50 30 40 60 HUTCHINSON 32 41 36 43 / 50 20 40 60 NEWTON 31 39 35 41 / 50 30 40 70 ELDORADO 32 40 36 45 / 40 40 50 70 WINFIELD-KWLD 33 41 38 47 / 50 30 50 60 RUSSELL 33 42 34 40 / 30 10 20 60 GREAT BEND 33 42 35 42 / 30 10 30 60 SALINA 33 41 36 43 / 50 20 30 70 MCPHERSON 32 40 35 41 / 50 20 40 70 COFFEYVILLE 30 41 38 48 / 30 30 60 70 CHANUTE 28 39 35 45 / 40 40 60 70 IOLA 29 39 35 43 / 40 40 50 70 PARSONS-KPPF 30 40 37 46 / 40 40 60 70 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 090711 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 211 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 THE SFC TROUGH AXIS THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 20-21Z WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS. A MOIST PBL WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70 SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES EXCEEDING 2500-3000 J/KG WHILE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 35-40 KTS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL KS BETWEEN 22-02Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO ANTICIPATED AS WE REMAIN WITHIN THE MOIST TROPICAL PLUME AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH CONSIDERABLE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND PWATS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL. MON-TUE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON MONDAY AS A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY WHILE DRIER AIR ALSO ARRIVES ACROSS THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON WEDNESDAY AS BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BRINGS TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2015 HIT AND MISS TSRA WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KCNU DURING THIS PERIOD. TSRA WILL PLAGUE KRSL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND KEEP CIGS AOA 4K AND VSBYS AOA 3SM...SO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR ALL OTHER SITES. KSLN...KHUT...AND KICT WILL DEAL WITH TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A BOUNDARY SLIDES SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHEN STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE BOUNDARY AS THEY HAVE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. HAIL TO ONE INCH AND WINDS UP TO 65 WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND STORMS. IF PAST HISTORY WITH THIS STORMS HOLDS TRUE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. THEIR MAY BE A FEW OCCASIONS IN WHICH MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR AS THE STORMS PASS OVERHEAD. MOST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY 03Z. KCNU SHOULD BE VFR THROUGHOUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 95 74 89 69 / 40 60 20 10 HUTCHINSON 95 72 90 68 / 50 60 10 10 NEWTON 93 72 88 67 / 50 60 10 10 ELDORADO 96 73 91 68 / 40 60 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 97 75 90 70 / 30 50 20 10 RUSSELL 90 68 88 64 / 40 40 10 10 GREAT BEND 92 70 89 66 / 50 40 10 10 SALINA 92 72 90 67 / 50 40 10 10 MCPHERSON 92 71 88 67 / 50 60 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 98 75 91 70 / 20 40 20 10 CHANUTE 96 74 90 69 / 30 50 30 10 IOLA 95 74 89 68 / 30 50 30 10 PARSONS-KPPF 97 75 91 69 / 20 40 30 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ071-072-092>096-098>100. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 222012 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 312 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST PBL IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITH PWATS PROGGED TO CLIMB ABOVE 1.50 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 3600 METERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WITH A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF COUPLED FORCING ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THE PAC FRONT WILL MIX EASTWARD RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO FRIDAY EVENING WHERE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY REMAIN...OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST WITH SEASONABLY MILD LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. SAT-SUN...DRY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS RETURNING INTO THE LOW 70S. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE START OF THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AND A BLAST OF CANADIAN AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS INTO THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORY AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AHEAD OF ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LIFT WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE THAT LOWING CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND RAIN CHANCES IS HIGHER AT TERMINALS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE LEFT 4SM VISIBILITIES FOR NOW...HOWEVER WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL DEVELOPS...COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP EVEN MORE. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST IFR/LIFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AFTER PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT TAF SITES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL ALSO SEE AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT STRONG. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. JMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 62 76 50 69 / 100 30 10 10 HUTCHINSON 62 74 47 70 / 90 20 10 10 NEWTON 59 73 49 66 / 100 30 10 10 ELDORADO 63 77 50 69 / 100 40 20 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 62 77 51 69 / 100 40 20 10 RUSSELL 58 71 42 67 / 80 20 10 10 GREAT BEND 60 72 42 68 / 80 20 10 10 SALINA 61 74 46 68 / 90 30 10 10 MCPHERSON 61 72 47 68 / 90 30 10 10 COFFEYVILLE 63 72 54 68 / 90 80 40 10 CHANUTE 61 73 53 67 / 100 70 30 10 IOLA 62 72 52 67 / 90 70 30 10 PARSONS-KPPF 63 73 54 68 / 90 70 30 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 090940 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 340 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. SATELLITE TRENDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE SHOWN BLOSSOMING WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED TROWAL. ISENTROPIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROWAL HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTH...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. JMR && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE TIMING OF SNOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF TRANSIENT BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT: AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST FLURRIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UP TO ONE INCH BEING ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROWAL...ISENTROPIC ASCENT..AND TRANSIENT 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW...NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING BREEZY AND AT TIMES GUSTY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INTO THE -5 TO -10F DEGREE RANGE. SUNDAY: AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. MONDAY: MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR AVERAGE START TO THE WORK WEEK IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AS TURBULENT MIXING OF RELATIVELY WARM 950- 900MB TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWERS 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. JMR .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO LINGER FOR TOO LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF STINT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH REGARDS TO THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. JMR && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OK...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST OK...EXPECT CIGS IN SE KS TO SLOWLY LOWER AS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE MID LAYERS. THIS SATURATION MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS SRN KS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS AND THE KCNU TAF SITE BETWEEN 08-11Z...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE LIGHT SNOW. COULD ALSO SEE VSBYS DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SNOW...BUT THINK FLURRIES AND NO VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON SAT TO MVFR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 25 KTS. KETCHAM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 28 11 29 20 / 20 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 26 9 29 19 / 10 0 0 0 NEWTON 26 8 28 19 / 10 0 0 0 ELDORADO 27 9 27 19 / 20 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 29 11 29 20 / 20 0 0 0 RUSSELL 23 8 32 19 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 25 9 32 20 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 25 7 29 19 / 10 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 25 8 29 19 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 32 11 28 18 / 40 0 0 0 CHANUTE 30 10 27 17 / 40 0 0 0 IOLA 30 9 26 17 / 40 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 31 11 27 18 / 40 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  FXUS63 KICT 171125 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 625 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 The weak cold front that has been discussed the past couple days extends from the Nebraska/IA state line, to along the NW corridor of KICT Country, to the OK Panhandle. SE of the front south winds from 10 to 20 mph are producing a warm night as evidenced by 2 AM temperatures from 55 to 60. The warmer temperatures were in South- east KS where 20 to 25 mph gusts continued. && .UPDATE... Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 This Morning: Dense fog that has developed along a SE-moving cold front isn't as transient as thought. With visibilities less than 1/4 mile in many areas, have decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for all of South- Central KS until 10 AM CDT. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Today: The weak cold front will continue it's SE journey & as it ventures across KS it'll encounter a richer & fairly well-defined moisture channel extending from North TX to Northeast KS. In fact, stratus is streaming almost due N across Eastern KS. Respectable mixing will prevent fog formation but the "elevated" lower-deck moisture deepens & as such drizzle & perhaps some light rain would develop across Southeast KS. Light rain/showers would be the precipitation mode as the front approaches this afternoon. Temperatures will be somewhat challenging. A warm start coupled with some compressional warming dictated raising highs across South-Central & Southeast KS into the mid 70s with OK-bordering counties at the warmer end of the thermal spectrum. This Weekend: It'll turn much cooler tonight as a fairly sharp inverted surface ridge punches almost due S. Reaching KS late tonight, winds would become light easterly & with clear skies lows would range from near 35 in Central KS to the lower 40s across Southern KS. It'll get much warmer. In fact, Sunday will be downright hot with record highs likely in Central KS. The tremendous warmup would be due to a strong mid-upper ridge spreading E across the central third of the CONUS on Sat. The upper ridge does deamplify on Sun as a broad upper trof moves E across Southwestern Canada but as it crosses Southern Canada downstairs troffing commences which would induce increasing SW winds. The afore-mentioned broad upper-deck trof will send a cold front SE that should reach Central KS late Sunday Night. Moisture is lacking so it'll be continued dry. The front's late arrival should prevent lows from dropping below 50 in most areas with the exception being Central KS where lows may settle into the mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Next Week: After a dry Mon, a broad, weak inverted ridge will venture across the Northern Plains which would induce lower-deck flow to become easterly. Isentropic ascent is feeble & as such only light rain would occur late Mon Night & Tue (primarily in the morning) by which time the SE-moving high would increase its influence. The chances for showers & embedded thunderstorms increases as the week progresses as a deepening upper-deck trof digs across the Great Basin Wed Night & Thu. Lift doesn't really increase until Wed Night when the upper-deck trof is scheduled to cross AZ & NM. As such the best chances of thunderstorms would occur late Wed Night & Thu. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 LIFR conditions expected at KICT out of the box with IFR probable at KCNU. Fog is transient and occurring in the vicinity of the cold front, so conditions will rapidly improve once front goes through and drier air spills into the area. Otherwise VFR conditions are forecast. -Howerton && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Per the above "Long Term" discussion the Grassland Fire Danger will become a tremendous concern on Sun for the increasing S-SW winds coupled with a deepen dry airmass will send RH's to near 20% across the NW sector of the cwa with RH'S across South-Central KS should range from the upper 20s across Reno, Kingman & Harper Counties to the 30% range across the remainder of Central & South-Central KS. The greatest culprit would be S-SW winds from 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 mph that'll produce an Extreme Grassland Fire Danger in most of Central & South-Central KS Sun Afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 73 42 71 54 / 10 0 0 0 Hutchinson 72 39 70 52 / 10 0 0 0 Newton 70 40 69 52 / 10 0 0 0 ElDorado 72 40 69 52 / 10 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 75 42 72 55 / 10 0 0 0 Russell 70 37 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 71 37 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 71 37 70 51 / 10 0 0 0 McPherson 71 38 69 51 / 10 0 0 0 Coffeyville 75 42 70 52 / 30 10 0 0 Chanute 73 39 69 50 / 30 0 0 0 Iola 72 39 68 49 / 20 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 74 41 69 51 / 30 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053- 067>069-082-083-091>093. && $$ UPDATE...EPS SYNOPSIS...EPS SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...PJH FIRE WEATHER...EPS  FXUS63 KICT 021039 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 539 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Forecast highlights focus around heavy rain potential southern Kansas overnight into Wednesday morning, with rather quiet and warmer weather expected Thursday through the weekend. A shortwave trough approaching from the northwest is expected to deepen/strengthen considerably across the region tonight into Wednesday, spreading areas of moderate to heavy rain across generally the southern half of Kansas. GFS, NAM and ECMWF are all in fairly good agreement, spreading widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches across southern and southeast Kansas. Moisture/instability will be lacking with this system, so likely will not be looking at widespread intense rainfall rates (i.e. 1-2 inches per hour). However, impressive 800-600mb warm advection and frontogenesis should concentrate a fairly narrow intense west-east oriented precipitation band, producing locally 2-3+ inches somewhere across southern/southeast Kansas after midnight into Wednesday morning. Even though rainfall rates alone will likely be insufficient to produce flash flooding with this system, antecedent rainfall and soil moisture, along with various rivers still running bankful or in flood, and continued flooding of low- lying areas dictates the need for some sort of flood watch product. Per interoffice collaboration, we decided on a flash flood watch over southeast Kansas tonight through Wednesday. Furthermore, marginal instability coupled with strong deep layer effective shear may promote a few storms with marginally severe hail over far southern Kansas overnight. With widespread rainfall exiting to the east, scattered showers and thunderstorms should redevelop Wednesday afternoon west of I-135, ahead of the approaching deep shortwave trough and underneath cold air aloft. MUCAPE values around 500 j/kg owing to the steep lapse rates could promote small hail and brief heavy rain with this activity. Loss of daytime heating should kill this activity around sunset. Same could be true for Thursday afternoon- evening over extreme eastern Kansas, although probably not as widespread as Wednesday afternoon-evening activity. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Deterministic models and ensemble consensus continue to strongly support an omega blocking pattern developing across the Nation late week into next week (deep upper lows western and eastern CONUS, amplified ridge central CONUS). This will support fairly quiet, sunny and warmer weather across the Heartland late week and through the weekend, with daytime temperatures climbing through the 70s to near 80 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017 SCT-BKN mid-level clouds around 10,000 ft AGL will stream southeast across the region today, along with the possibility of a few sprinkles at RSL-SLN. Widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms will increase across the region this evening and persist overnight. Rain will be most widespread over generally the southern half of Kansas, along with the greatest chance for thunder. Ceilings will likely deteriorate to MVFR by 06-09z, with IFR probabilities increasing after about 09z later tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 71 49 60 46 / 0 90 60 30 Hutchinson 69 47 60 44 / 10 80 60 30 Newton 68 48 58 44 / 10 80 60 30 ElDorado 69 48 58 43 / 0 90 70 20 Winfield-KWLD 73 50 60 45 / 0 100 70 20 Russell 65 45 60 42 / 10 50 60 20 Great Bend 67 45 60 42 / 10 60 60 20 Salina 67 47 60 44 / 10 50 50 30 McPherson 67 47 59 44 / 10 70 60 30 Coffeyville 73 51 58 43 / 0 100 90 20 Chanute 69 50 55 42 / 10 100 90 20 Iola 69 49 55 42 / 10 90 90 30 Parsons-KPPF 72 50 56 43 / 0 100 90 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for KSZ072-095-096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADK LONG TERM...ADK AVIATION...ADK