FXUS66 KEKA 191112 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 412 AM PDT WED JUN 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .DISCUSSION... WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA, WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY IN WESTERLY FLOW ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5-10KFT. LOCALLY MORE STABLE AIR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IS TENDING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE, WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING SHOWERS AND CLOUD-COVER, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. WOULDNT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SISKIYOUS AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATE AROUND THE WEAKENING UPPER-LOW...OTHERWISE AFTER TODAY, DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY INLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OREGON, ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP COASTAL CLOUDS OUT OF DEL NORTE COUNTY AND MUCH OF THE MENDOCINO COAST, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE HUMBOLDT COAST CAN CONTINUE TO EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH MORNING. BY SUNDAY, MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND RELATIVELY LOW-LATITUDE UPPER LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WA/OR COAST. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN DEEP, MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINY WEATHER FOR NW CALIFORNIA...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY AND SKILL AT THIS RANGE, LIMITED TO HIGH CHC POPS AT THIS TIME, BUT DO EXPECT THESE TO BE RAISED IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNLESS MODELS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. AAD && .AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLD-SCT SHRA THIS MORNING WITH AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ORCA BORDER. FOT OBS REPORTING IFR CIGS SUPPORTING EXPERIMENTAL FLS IMAGERY SHOWING IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. FLS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONGER SHOWERS. EXPECT MVFR TO PREVAIL AT THE COAST WITH PERIODS OF IFR IN STRONGER SHOWERS AND VFR IN BETWEEN THEM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING WITH LOWER CIGS PERSISTING NEAR THE ORCA BORDER AND ACROSS THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR ZONE INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS FG/STRATUS REDEVELOPS. && .MARINE...05Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS 5-15KT OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORT SEAS 3-5FT AT 8 SEC. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THU RESULTING IN INCREASING NLYS AND BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN WATERS THU AND EXPAND N FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NLYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 201125 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 425 AM PDT THU JUN 20 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY, HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH AN ESPECIALLY WET PERIOD OF WEATHER SET FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. ONE LAST LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CLIP NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON PERHAPS RESULTING IN SOME CU BUILD-UPS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NRN HUMBOLDT, TRINITY AND DEL NORTH COUNTIES. TOO LITTLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT THE COAST, LINGERING MOISTURE CONVERGING INTO THE VALLEYS IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IS RESULTING IN SOME CLOUD COVER, BUT NOT ANYTHING PARTICULARLY EXTENSIVE. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN, WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIXING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH, A SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO THE COAST UNDER THE STRENGTHENING INVERSION FRIDAY MORNING. ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THESE CLOUDS OUT OF CRESCENT CITY AND MUCH OF THE MENDOCINO COAST...WHILE AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY WILL BE CLOUDY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY. DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP-LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE, INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A LACK OF FORCING WILL LIMIT RAINFALL TO THE TENTH TO QUARTER-INCH VARIETY AT BEST. A MUCH STRONGER AND MORE IMPRESSIVE STORM WILL BEGIN HOGGING THE ATMOSPHERIC WAVELENGTH, WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP 960-MB LOW WRAPPING UP OVER THE ALEUTIANS. THE STORM WILL FILL AND WEAKEN WHILE STALLING WELL OFF THE WA/IR COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER AS A LONG FETCH OF UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG(FOR LATE JUNE) 140-KT JET WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL JET TAKES AIM ON THE WEST COAST, DEEP MOISTURE AND PWS SEVERAL STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL PUSH ONSHORE INTO NRN CA MON-TUE NIGHT. MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AND THUS THE DETAILS OF WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. WPC QPF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IS A HALF INCH TO OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE CWA, AND IF MODEL PROJECTIONS PAN OUT, THIS COULD BE ON THE LOW-SIDE. STAY TUNED. AAD && .AVIATION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS AND EXPERIMENTAL FLS IMAGERY SHOW LOW MVFR/HIGH IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS FURTHER INLAND. HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS AS FG/STRATUS REDEVELOPS. && .MARINE...05Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS LT 15KT OVER THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDO 15-20KT. SHORT PERIOD SEAS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM WITH BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 4-5FT AT 8 SEC. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FROM S TO N TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ISSUED SCA FOR SRN WATERS FOR INCREASING NLYS AND BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXPAND INTO PZZ470 FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NLYS WILL PEAK LATE FRI BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO EASE SAT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 221143 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 443 AM PDT SAT JUN 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TODAY. A FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION...A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER AS WELL AS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME HIGH BASED STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND FEW PATCHES SOUTH. STRATUS MAY BUST UP SOONER TODAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD START TO CREEP OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER FINE DAY. ENJOY IT AS WET WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. THE FIRST BOUT OF RAIN SHOULD COME IN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE WERE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM12 ON THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE THE WETTEST AND FASTEST WHILE THE NAM12 WAS MUCH DRIER AND SLOWER AND DOES NOT HAVE RAIN DEVELOPING UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW...BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE NAM12. SOUTHERLY FLOW...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE ON SUNDAY SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. IN GENERAL EXPECT A TENTH OR TWO OF RAIN ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH BY NORTH COAST STANDARDS...BUT WAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF SUMMER. A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE PROPELLED BY A STRONG 100+ WLY JET AND WILL HAVE A LONG FETCH OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. MONDAY IS LOOKING LIKE A COMPLETE RAIN OUT WITH CONTINUOUS STEADY RAIN NEARLY ALL DAY WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION BY MONDAY EVENING. ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN WILL PROBABLY SPILL INTO TUESDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SHALLOW MOISTURE PERSISTS. NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT ON THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF RAIN ON TUE AS THE JET SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD. BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE. WED THROUGH SAT...GFS...ECMWF AND GEM WERE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE 500MB FLOW PATTERN...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODELS INDICATE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ON WED AS HEIGHTS PUMP UP TO 582DM OR BETTER. DRYING AND CLEARING ARE EXPECTED THU AND FRI. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL LIKELY RAMP UP QUICKLY INTO THE MID 90S ON THU AND MAY EXCEED THAT FRI AND SAT AS HEIGHTS INCREASE TO 588DM OR HIGHER. WE MAY BE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER HOT SPELL WITH 100 DEGREE HEAT IN THE INTERIOR. && .AVIATION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC ANALYSIS AND EXPERIMENTAL FLS IMAGERY SHOW LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY 18Z WITH VMC PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON AS MID/HI CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AS PRECIP MOVES INTO CWA FROM N. && .MARINE...05Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS 10-20KT OVER THE NRN WATERS AND 15-25KT OVER THE SRN WATERS WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDO. SHORT PERIOD SEAS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM WITH BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 4-7FT AT 6-7 SEC. PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SLY TONIGHT INTO SUN AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORMS IMPACTS THE REGION. SLY WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS MON AS ANOTHER...STRONGER...STORM IMPACTS THE REGION. NLY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD AGAIN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING PZZ455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 041038 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 338 AM PDT THU JUL 4 2013 .SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF TRINITY AND EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. && .DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAINTAINING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST THEN INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS CALIFORNIA MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE STATE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS INLAND AREAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF TRINITY AND WESTERN MENDOCINO NATIONAL FOREST ZONES. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...DIMINISHING CONVECTION CONTINUING TO NNE MOVE FROM OFFSHORE SONOMA COUNTY ACROSS MENDO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY 13Z...WITH AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OVER THE YOLLA BOLLYS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. FLS HINTS AT STRATUS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE NEAR HUMBOLDT BAY...SO EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT AREAS S OF ORICK FROM SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONGER SHRA/TSTMS. && .MARINE...HIGH PRES OFFSHORE INTERACTING WITH THE THERMAL LOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO NEAR GALE NLY WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND. 04Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25-35KT WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 7-10FT AT 9 SEC. CONTINUED NLYS WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 11-13FT TODAY IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...SO EXPANDED HAZ SEAS WARNING INTO THE SRN INNER WATERS. INCREASED NLYS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE EASING SAT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH EASES THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. && .FIRE WEATHER...EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH NOON FOR INTERIOR MENDOCINO, TRINITY AND WESTERN MENDOCINO NATIONAL FOREST FIRE WX ZONES. RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY MOST STORMS BUT IGNITIONS REMAIN LIKELY. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY CAZ002-004-076. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450. GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470-475. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ455. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 051109 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 409 AM PDT FRI JUL 5 2013 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE THE COAST CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SUMMER SUN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. INLAND SKIES WILL BE SUNNY WITH MOSTLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS. EXPECT A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. WINDS THEN WILL BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN DURING THE DAY AND THEN LIGHT AND OFFSHORE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT NIGHT. THE INTERIOR SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WHILE MOST OF THE COAST CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. && .AVIATION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC ANALYSIS AND EXPERIMENTAL FLS IMAGERY SHOWING LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VMC AND BREEZY COASTAL WINDS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. && .MARINE...HIGH PRES OFFSHORE INTERACTING WITH THE THERMAL LOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO GALE NLYS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND. NEARSHORE BUOYS REPORTING SEAS 9-13FT AT 9-10 SEC. INCREASED NLYS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE EASING SAT AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH EASES THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... GALE WARNING FOR PZZ470-475. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FOR PZZ450-455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ450-455. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 221110 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 410 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CREEP INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST. SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EAST SLIGHTLY TODAY INTO TOMORROW ALLOWING THIS LOW TO SHIFT UP THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND WILL SPREAD OVER ALL OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME IMPROVING MID AND UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW APPROACHES HOWEVER LIGHTNING SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE OVER THE REGION INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG. INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A CUT OFF LOW NOW CURRENTLY WEST OF THE BAHA NEAR 27N 124W WILL MOVE NORTH AND FOLLOW BEHIND THE FIRST UPPER LOW PASSAGE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TODAY AS MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FURTHER TOMORROW INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND ITS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LOW PASSAGES MAY ALLOW THE STRATUS TO BE DISTURBED AND MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS AROUND 60 OR IN THE LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LESS INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. BBY PROFILER SHOWS MARINE LAYER AROUND 1.5KFT AND FLS CLOUD THICKNESS SUPPORT LAYER AROUND 1.2KFT. STRATUS WILL RECEDE TOWARDS THE COAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...LGT SLY FLOW ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH 19-20Z. CIGS WILL BE MOST STUBBORN AROUND ACV...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STRATUS WILL BRING IMC TO COASTAL AREAS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUE. VMC WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. && .MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEAKEN. ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. LGT TO MDT WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL TUE. THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AGAIN WED WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE UP THE WEST COAST TODAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT WILL TRIGGER AT LEAST AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SCATTERED STORMS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY IN EASTERN MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTIES. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND APPEARING TO BE INITIALIZING THE CURRENTLY LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW POORLY...CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMBER OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE ANY WATCH PRODUCTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR TUESDAY...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AS SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL HOLD BACK WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BEGIN DRY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO WET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING PZZ450. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 081109 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 409 AM PDT TUE OCT 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND THEN RACE SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL COOLING AND BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS INTO WED. && .DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PATCHES OF UPSLOPE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND PORTIONS OF TRINITY AND NRN MENDO. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH'S WERE KEEPING TEMPS A TAD WARMER IN THE VALLEYS WHILE MOST HIGHER ELEVATION SITES WERE MUCH COOLER. A FEW SELECT REMOTE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS COOLED DOWN 10 TO 15F DEGREES EVEN WITH THE BRISK NORTH WINDS. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SYSTEM SPREADING HIGH AND MID LAYER CLOUDS INTO WRN WASHINGTON AND NWRN OREGON. SCT-BKN HIGH-MID CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS A NORTHERLY JET DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING SHORT-WAVE. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK QUITE MEAGER FOR NW CA AS THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SYSTEM IS MOSTLY OVERLAND. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR PRECIP GENERATION. NAM12 AND GFS 925MB-850MB RH'S DO RAMP UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS NWLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. I SUPPOSE DEL NORTE COUNTY COULD SEE SPOTTY UPSLOPE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE THIS TROUGH IS SHAPING UP TO BE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN AFFECT WILL BE STRONG COOLING AND BLUSTERY NLY AND NELY WINDS. THE COOL SURGE SHOULD WIND DOWN ON THU AS THE LOW HEADS OFF TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS UP OVER THE NE PAC. A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SYSTEMS WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER THE AREA IN NWLY FLOW. THESE APPEAR TO BE DRY TOO AND DO NOT POSE MUCH OF A THREAT FOR PRECIP. THUS I WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARD THE END WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WARMING DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS POINT...DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. IF ANYTHING THE FLOW LOOKS ONSHORE AND THE COAST MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND. REGARDING FROST...PORTIONS OF INLAND HUMBOLDT AND MENDO MAY SEE PATCHES OF FROST - ESPECIALLY EARLY THU MORNING. AIR ALOFT WONT BE AS COOL AS WED BUT THE NLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH. IT IS NOT LOOKING GREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FROST BUT A FEW PATCHES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE COLDER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION...11-4U SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EEL AND TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL FLS IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH SOME PATCHY IFR POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 18-19Z WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND EXPOSED RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON. LAMP AND SREF GUIDANCE SHOW MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE REDWOOD COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH BETTER CHCS OF CIGS DOWN TO IFR ALONG THE EEL RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. && .MARINE...ASCAT PASS FROM 04Z MON NIGHT SHOWED WINDS 20-35KT JUST W OF THE NW CA COASTAL WATERS. BUOYS REPORT N-NW WINDS 15-25 KT AND DOMINANT SEAS OF 10-13FT AT 10-12 SECONDS WITH WIND WAVES OF 5-11 FT. ALTHOUGH OBS ARE BORDERLINE FOR HAZ SEAS...ELECTED TO MAINTAIN WARNINGS TO HIGHLIGHT THE STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS. STRONG TO GALE NORTHERLIES AND HAZARDOUS WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO WED...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEK. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ450-455. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 221129 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 329 AM PST FRI NOV 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTERACTING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES HAS INCREASED THE PRESS SURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. FROST WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DRY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUBSEQUENTLY A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY POSSIBLE IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AT SHIP MOUNTAIN AND MENDOCINO PASS. THE WINDS WILL PEAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BE STRONGEST ACROSS HIGHER RIDGE TOPS. WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER EXPOSED RIDGES ABOVE 4000 TO 5000 FEET IMPACTING AREAS SUCH AS SOUTH FORK MOUNTAIN AND MENDOCINO PASS. LOCALIZED DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST ARE LIKELY AT THE COAST SATURDAY MONRNING SIMILAR TO FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...11-4U SAT IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL FLS PRODUCT SHOW PATCHY FG/STRATUS OVER THE VAN DUZEN...EEL AND TRINITY RIVER VALLEYS ATTM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FG/STRATUS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16-17Z DESPITE VERY DRY AIR MASS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH E-NE WINDS GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE DAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ABOVE 2500FT MAINLY OVER SRN HUMBOLDT...SRN TRINITY AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. WEAKER WINDS AND MODIFYING AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF GROUND FG MAINLY OVER INTERIOR VALLEYS. && .MARINE...NLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE FROM N TO S TODAY RESULTING IN SUBSIDING SEAS. WINDS WILL BECOME SLY SAT AND REMAIN LGT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. SLY WINDS WILL RISE AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING CAZ001>004-076. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ001. FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ002. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING PZZ455-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 231136 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 336 AM PST SAT NOV 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEREFORE THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. DRY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE WEAKENING HIGH AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TODAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY THE AREA. && .AVIATION...11-4U SAT IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL FLS PRODUCT SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NW CA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FG COULD DEVELOP OVER INLAND VALLEYS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z. OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE WITH WINDS BECMG SE LATER TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. && .MARINE...06Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS 5-15KT OVER THE WATERS AND BUOY OBS SHOW SUBSIDING SEAS. WINDS WILL BECOME SLY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN LGT-MDT INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL RISE AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ001-002. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 231719 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 919 AM PST SAT NOV 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS, EXPECT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. && .UPDATE... MAINLY AN UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT. QUITE A VARIED RANGE OF LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING, WITH SOME SPOTS STARTING OUT IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S, AND OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE 20S. THIS IS RELATIVELY INDEPENDENT OF COAST VERSUS INLAND. GENERALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE WARMER, ALONG WITH EAST-WEST ORIENTED VALLEYS AND AREAS EXPOSED TO DOWNSLOPING EAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE MUCH COLDER. EXPECT THINGS TO EVEN OUT A BIT AS DIURNAL MIXING OCCURS, BUT RAISED MOST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST GIVEN MANY LOCATIONS ARE STARTING OUT MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED AND WE WILL HAVE A LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT, ALL INTERIOR VALLEYS SHOULD BE COLDER TONIGHT, AND THERE WILL STILL BE PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. AAD && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 336 AM PST... SYNOPSIS...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEREFORE THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY. DRY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DISCUSSION...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE WEAKENING HIGH AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TODAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW PASSES BY THE AREA. AVIATION...11-4U SAT IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL FLS PRODUCT SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NW CA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME PATCHY GROUND FG COULD DEVELOP OVER INLAND VALLEYS RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z. OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO EASE WITH WINDS BECMG SE LATER TODAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MARINE...06Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS 5-15KT OVER THE WATERS AND BUOY OBS SHOW SUBSIDING SEAS. WINDS WILL BECOME SLY LATER TODAY AND REMAIN LGT-MDT INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL RISE AGAIN AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 220321 AAA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 721 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. && .UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS EVENING. ISSUED QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER AND ADD MENTION OF FG ACROSS THE N COAST INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST ON TRACK. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. && .AVIATION...SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST AND COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS. EXPERIMENTAL FLS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. MESO MODELS SHOW WINDS EASING AND BECMG OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE DEL NORTE COAST. IFR CIGS MAY DISSIPATE AT CEC OVERNIGHT...BUT DESPITE CIGS LIFTING SLIGHTLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MAINTAINED IFR CIGS. IFR-LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AS STRATUS RECEDES TO THE COAST. REDUCED CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE CLEARING. && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 447 PM PST...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL INTERIOR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE FOG AND STRATUS...THUS EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND FOG TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. INTERIOR AREAS WILL BEGIN TO SEE WARMER AFTERNOONS BUT CLEAR AND CRISP MORNINGS ARE STILL LIKELY. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BRING WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM THROUGH THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES WEAK. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AS WELL. FRIDAY THIS STARTS TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE FROM OUR AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SOME PRECIP MAKING IT TO OUR AREA... ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AS THE LOW SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND OFFSHORE FLOW ONCE AGAIN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MKK && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH THE THERMAL LOW OVER CENTRAL CA CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO THE WATERS. THIS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHORT PERIOD WAVES AROUND 7 TO 8 FEET AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS. THE WINDS ARE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH THE WAVES PROPAGATING INTO THE INNER WATERS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY THE AREA WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS OTHERWISE. A LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS BEGUN TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS. AS OF 2PM IT IS AROUND A FOOT AT 20 SECONDS. THIS IS ABOUT 6 TO 8 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE MODELS WERE SHOWING. THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY AND THEN DIMINISH SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK. UPDATED THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE SHOALING HAZARD. ANOTHER SWELL IS EXPECTED TO START BUILDING INTO THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH OF THESE SWELLS HAVE A FAIRLY BIG SHORT PERIOD WAVE OCCURRING AT THE SAME TIME...SO DO NOT EXPECT A SNEAKER WAVE THREAT. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SUNDAY PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 071230 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 430 AM PST TUE JAN 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL BRING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL GRADUALLY AS CLOUDS EXPAND ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AT LEAST BRIEFLY LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .DISCUSSION... SOME LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AFFECTING DEL NORTE COUNTY OVERNIGHT BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. CLOUD BASES HAVE BEEN MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL AND SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE KEPT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CHANGE AS A WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG 130W PASSES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO TURN ONSHORE AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. A PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF MENDOCINO COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL TRANSITION TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. FORCING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AGAIN IN THE FORM OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, ANY RAINFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT. OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, THE TAIL-END OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE, AND HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY WETTER. STILL, WE ARE EXPECTING MAYBE A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH FOR THE NORTH COAST, WITH A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. KEPT SOME LOW/SLGT CHC POPS IN THURSDAY ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS A DRY DAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS BROUGHT A WARM FRONT THROUGH WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MOISTURE AND LIFT MAINLY NORTH OF THE ORCA BORDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AT THE COAST, BUT ELSEWHERE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY COOL OFF THROUGH MIDWEEK AS ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS LOWER. RIDGING WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. ON SATURDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A SHARPER UPPER TROUGH, WITH A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE AREA COULD SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF MODEL-PROGGED FRONTS THIS WINTER, WE ARE NOT GETTING OUR HOPES UP JUST YET. EITHER WAY, WHILE ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME AND HELPFUL FOR FIRE AND AGRICULTURAL CONCERNS, THIS IS NOT GOING TO AFFECT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MUCH AT ALL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER. AAD && .AVIATION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVG ACROSS CWA WITH SOME STRATUS MOVG INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SFC OBS SHOW VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA WITH RADAR PICKING UP SOME -SHRA OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ISOLD -SHRA. MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE IMPACT OF THE STRATUS OFFSHORE. EXPERIMENTAL FLS SHOWS IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STRATUS ARRIVAL WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGHER BL RH IMPACTING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER TO IFR WITH SOME -DZ THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING. && .MARINE...SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS LGT SE-S WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS 3-5FT AT 13 SEC. LGT-MDT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE SLY WINDS RISE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE NRN WATERS SAT. W SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER... LONGER PERIOD...SWELL BUILDS INTO THE WATERS. THIS SECOND SWELL TRAIN WILL PEAK AROUND 9-13FT AT 13 SEC WED NIGHT INTO THU THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. ENP/SWAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TRAIN PEAKING AROUND 11-15FT AT 13-15 SECONDS SAT THEN SUBSIDING. ALTHOUGH POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE OF LATE LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE...ENP HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS SO TRENDED FCST TOWARDS THE HIGHER VALUES. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 191118 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 318 AM PST SUN JAN 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... SHALLOW LAYER OF COASTAL FOG WAS HUGGING THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDO AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WAS A LITTLE WEAKER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND THE FOG MAY LINGER OVER OR JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST LONGER TODAY. OTHERWISE THE LONG STANDING RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WEATHER. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND PUSH THE SHALLOW FOG LAYER AWAY FROM THE COAST. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RUNNING UP AGAINST THE RIDGE ON TUE. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER BY TUE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE TUE NIGHT AND THEN DROPPING IT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PAC NW ON WED. PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE. FOR NOW I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES 1...3 AND 4. THE NEW 0Z MODEL RUNS HAVE AN OVER LAND TRAJECTORY WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAIN. 0Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CUTTING BACK AND DIGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OR EAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. END RESULT IS MORE DRY WEATHER FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. MAIN AFFECT LOOKS TO BE COOLING. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE DECREASED IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND. THE LARGE SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL HOLD NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN IS UNFAVORABLE AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE OF RAIN. && .AVIATION... IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL FLS SHOWS STRATUS ROUGHLY 1KFT THICK...SO CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. MODELS INDICATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST WHERE NLY WINDS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SOME VALLEY FG THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL. && .MARINE... BUOY OBS SHOW LGT-MDT WINDS AND 6-8FT SEAS AT 14-16SEC. SWAN AND ENP A COUPLE OF FT ABOVE OBS...SO TRENDED FCST DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK MAINTAINING LGT-MDT WINDS OVER THE WATERS. A SERIES OF LARGE WESTERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT...6-8HR...PERIODS WHEN SEAS DROP BELOW CRITERIA. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING PZZ450-455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 211131 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 331 AM PST TUE JAN 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD WILL MEANDER ALONG THE COAST TODAY. IT MAY CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING...THEN COME BACK THIS AFTERNOON. LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS WAVE WILL FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE COAST TONIGHT AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS NW OF THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE A PUSH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT MISTY DRIZZLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LINGER INTO WED THEN SCOUR OUT DURING THE DAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT REBUILDS OFFSHORE. THE FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO GO OFFSHORE TIL LATE WED NIGHT...SO COASTAL CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND EUREKA AND IN THE DELTA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THU AND FRI AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIVES DOWN OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS SECOND SHORT-WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS WARMING ALONG THE COAST. CONSIDERING THE LONG STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER...A FIRE WEATHER WARNING FOR LOW HUMIDITY'S AND GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPE. THE EAST WINDS SEEM TO BE STRONGER...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DRY AS THE OFFSHORE EVENT LAST WEEK. THE COAST COULD SEE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THU DUE TO ADIABATIC COMPRESSION. FRI MAY BE WARM ALONG THE COAST TOO. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PRODUCTS INDICATE THE WARM AIR DESCENDING TO MEAN SEA LEVEL ON EITHER DAY AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH. THE NEW 0Z MODELS BRING THE COLD POOL ALOFT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI...WITH STEEP 850-500MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT MAY END UP FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW FARTHER TO THE EAST. EVEN IT DOES FORM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRI...THE AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR SHOWERS OR TSTMS. RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLATTEN OUT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE...THOUGH INDICATES PERIODIC BOUTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD BOTH DAYS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WETTER AND FASTER WITH A ZONAL FLOW PLOWING ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE WEST COAST BRINGING RAIN ON TUE. THE GEM CONTINUES TO SHOW RAIN ARRIVING MON NGT AND TUE. CONSIDERING THE LONG STANDING RIDGE OVER THE AREA I AM INCLINED TO THROW OUT THE WETTER MODELS AND MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WAY TOO FAST AND WET THAT FAR OUT. THERE ARE STILL SIGNS OF A FLAT RIDGE HOLDING THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK TOO AND THE RAIN MAY BE DELAYED TIL LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... SFC OBS INDICATE VLIFR VARYING TO VFR CONDITIONS AS A STRATUS BANK ALONG THE COAST BATTLES A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. EXPERIMENTAL FLS PRODUCT SHOWS TOPS AROUND 1KFT WITH GREATEST IFR PROBS A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. EXPECT THESE WIDELY VARIABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH MID MORNING...IMPROVE SLIGHTLY...THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. FURTHER INLAND VMC WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST. && .MARINE... BUOY OBS SHOW LGT WINDS OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS 10-12FT AROUND 17SEC. THIS WLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. THE NEXT SWELL TRAIN BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NLY TONIGHT AND RISE TO NEAR GALES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WED. INCREASED WINDS WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SHORT PERIOD SEAS. PRES GRADIENT RELAXES THU ALLOWING WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD SEAS TO DIMINISH. SEVERAL LARGE WESTERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT STORMS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS WEEK. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING PZZ450-455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 082217 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 317 PM PDT TUE APR 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS AT THE COAST. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE W UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS NEAR 30N/142W AND MOVES SLOWLY E. AS THIS LOW DIGS INTO S CA OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RAPIDLY AMPLIFY OVER THE EPAC AND SHIFT E TO THE COAST BY SUN. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD NW CA TONIGHT. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF N DEL NORTE COUNTY...BUT MOST MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN N OF THE OR/CA LINE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TRINITY HORN AND THE YOLLA BOLLYS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK. COVERAGE DOESN'T WARRANT MENTIONABLE POPS UNTIL FRI. EVEN THEN...HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 25 PERCENT. AN ISOLATED TSTM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE OVERALL LOW POPS... WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY MENTION SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDINESS OVER THE ADJACENT PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS WEEK...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL FADE IN AND OUT NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON... ADVECTING INLAND BY EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK N OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS AN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT THE PAC NW COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE S INTERIOR WHERE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU. THE REDWOOD COAST SHOULD STAY NEAR NORMAL. /SEC && .AVIATION... PERSISTENCE FORECAST RULES TODAY WITH VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. IF ANYTHING, THE STRATUS IS MORE PERSISTENT AND 1-3 MILES FARTHER INLAND. THE LAYER IS STILL SHALLOW AND RATHER THIN, WITH SOME PIREPS INDICATING JUST A 3-500FT CLOUD THICKNESS. HOWEVER, IT WILL ONLY EXPAND INLAND THIS EVENING AND THICKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VSBYS WILL DROP BACK BELOW 1/2 MI BETWEEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOMORROW THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. ALTHOUGH THE SFC GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALONG MOST OF THE COAST, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN OFFSHORE AND DIVERGENT COMPONENT ALONG THE MENDOCINO, NRN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COAST, INCLUDING KCEC, TO ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD EVEN LAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND KACV, BUT STILL AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INLAND. AAD && .MARINE... OVERALL THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE WATERS BEYOND 10 NM. A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND STEEPER SEAS IS LIKELY OCCURRING JUST DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND THEREFORE WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE UPCOMING PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BE A RESULT OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE BUILDING UP AGAINST THE COASTAL THERMAL TROUGH. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR WED THROUGH SAT. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE HIGHEST WINDS, BUT AT THIS POINT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK WITH NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MAY NEED A GALE WATCH FOR THE NRN OUTER WATERS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WE DRAW CLOSER. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS UP, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS WILL REACH THE INNER WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. DUE TO THE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OF THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE WINDS MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH HIGHER NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO DURING THE FRI/SAT TIME-FRAME...AT LEAST COMPARED TO AN AVERAGE SPRING NORTHERLY WIND EVENT. OTHERWISE THE ONLY 'SIGNIFICANT' SWELL CURRENTLY AT 5-7 FT AROUND 13 SEC WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AND LOWER IN PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY IMPACT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND, BUT EXPECT THE STEEPER SHORT-PERIOD NORTHERLY SEAS WILL BE DOMINATING THE WAVE SPECTRUM AT THAT TIME. OTHERWISE NO FRONTS OR SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AAD && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 291103 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 403 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS OVER NORTHERN CA. && SHORT TERM...(THROUGH WEDNESDAY) AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO LOWER 100S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL SO COASTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE 60S...THOUGH SOME 70 DEGREE TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN MENDOCINO COASTS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN THE RIDGE. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTH COAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE GOOD MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A SMALL JET STREAK SLIDES EAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PRODUCED BY THE GFS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENT MODELS INDICATE IT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEGATIVE LI VALUES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MKN .LONG TERM...MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LINGERING TSTMS OVER THE TRINITY HORN ON THU, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO SHOW IT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. BY THU AND FRI AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE COAST. SEASONAL TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WHILE NW CAL SITS BETWEEN A RIDGE AND TROUGH. BFG && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR 38N140W WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. THIS IS CAUSING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO TIGHTEN YIELDING STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. A MORNING ASCAT PASS IS ALREADY SHOWING WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KT. INCREASING WINDS WILL ALSO BRING LARGE STEEP SEAS. AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA MID WEEK WILL DISRUPT THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP, BUT BY ONLY A FEW KNOTS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH WINDS ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WENT AHEAD AND BEGAN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND MOVED UP THE START TO 9AM FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. ALSO MOVED UP THE START TIME FOR THE GALE WATCH. WILL PUNT TO THE DAY CREW FOR ACTUAL HOISTING OF THE GALE WARNING AS THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY OF WIND SPEED COVERAGE. A LATE MORNING SCAT PASS COULD HELP SOLIDIFY A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS. IN TERM OF HIGHER WIND COVERAGE, MODELS ARE SHOWING A HOLE OF LIGHTER WINDS ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST SOUTH OF ABOUT ORICK. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL FILTER RIGHT IN TOWARD THE COAST ACROSS DEL NORTE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. BFG && AVIATION...STRATUS HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND COASTAL RIVER VALLEYS NORTH OF THE CAPE OVERNIGHT. AS EXPECTED SOME PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT KCEC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT KCEC AND DEVELOP AT KACV AND LAST INTO THE MORNING. SATELLITE FLS CLOUD THICKNESS IS INDICATING 500 TO 1000 FEET THICK. WITH CIGS NEAR 600 FEET THE TOP OF THE MARINE LAYER HAS COME BACK DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET. && FIRE WEATHER...NEAR 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS AND LOWER SLOPES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DRYING OF FUELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GOOD NEWS IS THERE IS VERY LITTLE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS AT NIGHT OR DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING SOME DECENT RECOVERIES DURING THIS 2 DAY HEAT EVENT. ANOTHER ITEM OF FIRE WEATHER INTEREST IS A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER THE PACIFIC THAT WILL GET ENTRAINED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY AND IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS PRESENT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST CA. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY AND TSTORM BASES SHOULD BE HIGH...THUS ANY STORMS THAT FORM WOULD LIKELY BE DRY. AT THIS TIME THE BEST WINDOW FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST AND STORMS COULD RANGE FARTHER WEST. MKN && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT PZZ470-475. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ455-470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA