FXUS63 KEAX 220807 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 307 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015 Large upper trough over the western U.S. will bring quite a bit of wet weather to our area over the holiday weekend as it slowly moves eastward. First round of precipitation could affect areas near and south of the KC area as early as this afternoon, though this activity will be encountering low-level ridging and some dry low-level air by the time it makes it this far east. Therefore anything that falls today or tonight should be fairly light and scattered in nature, and shouldn't be enough to really spoil outdoor activities. More widespread rain and thunderstorms will begin moving into the area on Saturday and really pick up in coverage and intensity Saturday night and Sunday. Persistent 30-40 kt LLJ through this period will transport increasing moisture with precipitable water values reaching the 1.5" to 1.8" range Saturday night. This moisture combined with steady isentropic ascent and broad synoptic ascent ahead of the main upper wave will favor several round of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday evening. Instability will be weak and not too favorable for strong storms or torrential downpours, although magnitude of moisture transport and warm cloud depth alone could favor some areas of heavy rain. Additionally, with southerly flow all the way from the surface to the tropopause, some lines of training storms could develop capable of dropping localized rainfall amounts of 1" to 2" or even higher particularly across areas near the KS/MO state line. Things will become somewhat drier by Monday as the primary upper trough axis swings through and allows warmer air to build into the region. This however will allow the atmosphere to become quite a bit more unstable which could cause scattered storms to develop during the afternoon. Wind shear will be fairly weak but couldn't rule out a few stronger storms if the airmass can become moderately to strongly unstable as the GFS suggests. Broad southwest upper flow will continue for much of next week. Combination of an unstable airmass and random perturbations in the upper flow could spark scattered storms any day next week. Shear will be weak so the threat for any organized severe storms or widespread heavy rain looks low. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1150 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Cigs will gradually lower on Friday, but should remain at or above 10 kft. Light southwest winds will become variable in direction Friday AM, eventually increasing to 7-8 kts out of the southeast by late aftn. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...Laflin  FXUS63 KEAX 272012 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 312 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 A rainy 48 hours begins Thursday morning with a series of weak upper-level impulses that will interact with an increasingly moist airmass. The first of these impulses is sparking off convection across the High Plains this afternoon, and this feature will bring rain and a few storms to the area as early as sunrise Thursday. Off- and-on rain chances will then continue through Saturday morning with a continued parade of weak impulses combined with steady low-level isentropic ascent. Rain chances will end with the passage of a cold front Saturday morning. With poor lapse rates, marginal instability and weak shear through Saturday, the threat for strong or severe storms looks low aside from an isolated strong wind gust or marginally severe hail Thursday or Friday afternoon. The bigger concern will be the potential for more heavy rain. Some ingredients are in place for heavy rain including deep moisture, precipitable water amounts up to 1.75" and somewhat deep warm-cloud depth. However, with a lack of a well- defined forcing mechanism it makes it difficult to pinpoint where and when the heaviest rain could fall. In addition, storm motion vectors, while slow, don't appear supportive of training storms compared to some of the more recent heavy rain events. Therefore it seems that a widespread 1" to 1.5" will be the general rule by the time all is said and done Saturday morning with a few locally higher amounts. This isn't too conducive for flash flooding when it falls over 48 hours so will not post any flood watches at this time. Saturday will see drier weather behind the morning front although clouds may take a while to clear out. Post-frontal airmass will be seasonably cool with highs in the upper 60s/near 70 both Saturday and Sunday with lows in the lower 60s. Broad upper-level ridging will maintain generally dry conditions into early next week. There could be some isolated afternoon "popcorn" storms by mid-week as moisture returns to the area and temperatures climb back into the lower 80s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1237 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015 Winds are light and variable now but will pick up a bit from the east-southeast over the next few hours. Numerous showers and storms expected Thursday, starting as early as 8 or 9 AM near the KS/MO border. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Hawblitzel DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...Hawblitzel  FXUS63 KEAX 032042 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 342 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015 Very active pattern continues with another round of thunderstorms possible as early as this afternoon and this evening, potentially continuing off and on into the weekend. This potential for repeated rounds of storms will continue to pose a threat for flash flooding into the weekend. For tonight, showers and thunderstorms have already developed along an elevated boundary over north central KS, being fed by a low-level jet nosing into the area. This jet is forecast to weaken and pull back a bit through the early evening, while storm motion vectors push these storms into a more stable airmass over far eastern KS and western MO in the wake of this morning's MCS. Would therefore expect this activity to gradually weaken as it approaches the KS/MO state line with the stronger activity staying to our west for the next several hours. A better chance for widespread thunderstorms, possibly evolving into another organized convective complex, will arrive overnight when a stronger impulse will eject out of the Rockies into our region and interact with a re-intensifying low-level jet nosing into northeast KS. This would conceptually bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to southeast NE and northeast KS which could roll southeast into western MO through early Thursday. Unfortunately models are really struggling to resolve convection in this pattern so confidence is not terribly high on this. Nevertheless, torrential rains from Wednesday morning combined with our anomalously wet May has left soils incapable of holding much if any additional water. In fact 3-hour flash flood guidance is 1.5" or lower for most areas near and west of I-35 with some spots under an inch. Additionally, many ingredients are in place for very heavy rain tonight including strong moisture advection/convergence over northeast KS and northwest MO, deep moisture and warm cloud depth and precipitable water values over 1.75" So even though there remains some uncertainty regarding storm evolution overnight, there's a real risk for flash flooding if and where storms do develop. Therefore we issued a flash flood watch through 10 AM for areas that received the heaviest rain on Wednesday. A lot of Thursday's storm potential depends on the timing and coverage of any activity that develops late tonight. If precipitation and clouds clear early enough, there could be another round of storms during the afternoon, some of which could be strong with slightly stronger 700- and 500-hPa winds nosing into the area. Conversely if storms are slow to move into the area in the morning, southeastern portions of the area could destabilize enough for strong storms through the early afternoon. At this time the most likely scenario seems to be similar to today with morning convection keeping things stable into the early evening. Of course, any storm that does develop will have to be watched closely for additional heavy rainfall. This active MCS pattern looks to continue into Thursday night and into Friday and Saturday. The orientation of the upper-level ridge and projected LLJ would favor storms developing over northern KS, southeast NE and IA during the daytime hours then potentially congealing into complexes that would navigate southward into our area during the evening and overnight. The heavy rain potential may be particularly enhanced on Friday and Saturday when a warm front looks to become oriented northwest to southeast from western Iowa into the Missouri Ozarks. This would be parallel to the upper flow and overall storm motion and could potentially lead to training storm complexes with very heavy rain. Confidence isn't terribly high through this period so decided not to issue the flash flood watch beyond Thursday just yet, though it eventually may need to be. By Sunday and Monday the upper ridge to our south which is responsible for this active pattern will gradually flatten out, and could bring an end to this parade of storm complexes. However, a lingering frontal boundary near our area and a very unstable airmass could still spark storms either day. Enough northerly flow may spread into the area by Tuesday and Wednesday to finally push this active pattern to our south, but this could change. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1245 CDT WED JUN 3 2015 TSRA moving through the terminals towards east southeast. Upstream conditions will bring VFR to terminals until the next system develops along boundary left over from earlier convection along with developing synoptic low pressure and associated surface trough in southeast Kansas with bring VCTS around 03Z tonight. Some uncertainty in timing and location will prohibit TEMPO group for now...but will monitor closely as afternoon and evening progress and observational data supports updates. Winds will move around to the southeast after storms exit and will be variable in vicinity of storms later this evening. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR KSZ025-102>105. MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ001>005- 011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044. && $$ UPDATE...Hawblitzel DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...Adolphson  FXUS63 KEAX 041957 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 257 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 Shortwave tracking northeast out of southern KS will interact with a stalled frontal/outflow boundary just south of the US 50 corridor this afternoon and this evening. This interaction will likely lead to showers and thunderstorms developing across areas near and south of this boundary through the evening, potentially creeping back north toward the Missouri River. Airmass across these areas has become moderately unstable but shear is very weak, so a few short-lived strong storms can't be ruled out but the overall severe threat this evening is low. Slow storm motion could favor pockets of heavy rain, particularly right along the boundary, but modest precipitable water values and relatively shallow warm cloud depth don't point to widespread flooding problems with tonight's activity. A second round of thunderstorms is likely late tonight into Wednesday with another shortwave dropping out of Nebraska. Interaction of this feature with the aforementioned boundary and a strengthening low- level jet could lead to an enhanced risk for heavy rain, particularly where and if the leading edge of the LLJ becomes aligned with the boundary. Models have really struggled to pinpoint where this interaction may occur, bouncing from northern Missouri in earlier model runs to now southern KS into the MO Ozarks. Since most model runs have now settled on the latter solution, this is the preferred forecast for heavy rain potential (for now) which may impact far southern portions of the forecast area including the Butler/Clinton areas. These locations have been relatively dry recently and can handle more rain than areas further north, so will not put out a flash flood watch at this time. However, given the poor model performance lately, will need to watch how things evolve overnight in case Wednesday's heavy rain potential shifts back north toward areas that can't handle as much water. Departure of Wednesday's system to the east and modest height rises across the Plains will bring a drying trend to the area on Thursday. Temperatures will run close to average. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 As we head into the weekend, the upper-level pattern places the region in slight northwest flow. To the north across Canada, a vigorous shortwave trough is progged to slowly translate across the southern provinces through the weekend. This will send a few weak surface fronts through the area and don't look to impact the temperatures much. To the south and west, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Southern Plains with a few ridge runners initiating over the high terrain and riding the ridge into the area each night/early morning through the weekend. The ridge begins to build across the inter-mountain west by early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 616 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015 VFR conditions will dominate the terminals through much of the next 24 hours. Morning convection across far north Missouri looks to stay clear of the terminals during the day. There is a chance that the KSTJ site might have some vicinity storms through the mid to late morning hours from activity sliding southeast from Nebraska. Otherwise, will likely need to wait till the late afternoon or early evening hours for storms to redevelop, moving in from the southwest. Confidence on when these storms will develop is low, but have highlighted the hours thought to have the greatest threat for storms with a TEMPO group this evening. Otherwise, expect wind to remain generally at or below 10 knots from the south to southeast. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel LONG TERM...PMM AVIATION...Cutter  FXUS63 KEAX 290449 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 409 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Tonight... Positive tilted shortwave trough as noted in satellite imagery from IA through KS will slide east tonight. Scattered convection will form along an associated cold front within a moderately unstable airmass....at least it will be into the early evening hours. A narrow band of convection has finally formed over east central KS where MLCAPES between 1500-2000J/kg are noted. Further northeast VFR ceilings within the warm sector have pretty much capped intense convection as radar shows sputtering area of low topped showers. The east central KS activity may be the only region which develops deep convection, albeit the non-severe variety. Will hit PoPs highest over northern and west central counties until a few hours after sunset. Thereafter expect a fairly quick drop off in intensity and coverage as instability hits the skids. Believe the trend of the HRRR and 12z NAM looks reasonable. QPF will also be muted. Could see isolated showers form after the passage of the frontal convection and last into the pre-dawn hours. Saturday - Sunday... The above shortwave is expected to flounder over the Mid MO Valley over the weekend. The h7 shortwave trough will be slow to exit the CWA resulting in a general region of uvv over the eastern 1/2 of the CWA. Thinking there will be sufficient breaks in the overcast such that isolated instability showers/storms will be possible Saturday afternoon over parts of northeast and central MO. Current temperature forecast may be a bit too optimistic should the afternoon clouds fail to break up. Sunday looks dry with a slight warm-up as the mid level trough washes out. Monday - Friday... The operational models transition to a broadening southwesterly flow pattern after the upper level ridge axis leans over into the Central Plains. This will allow warmer more seasonal temperatures and humidity back into the region. While the h7 temperatures don't get overly hot and cap off the environment a lack of any discernible mid/upper level wave or surface boundaries will greatly limit the rain chances. As such will go with a dry forecast until some feature of significance is picked up by the models. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 Cold front currently moving through the region which will lead to a gradual wind shift to the northwest late this evening/early Saturday morning. Satellite imagery this evening showing plenty of low status across eastern Nebraska and western Iowa...which fcst models show gradually shifting south across area terminals after 8z or so. As such...have elected to highlight IFR probabilities at all sites with the exception of IXD which may be too far south. Look for minor improvements in the morning with MVFR cigs likely sticking around through early to mid-afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJ AVIATION...32  FXUS63 KEAX 141849 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 149 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 148 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018 The main concern today will be the approaching MCV that formed from a MCS over central KS last night. This feature has developed a nice mesoscale low all the way through the atmosphere and is very evident on satellite and radar products. So far the CAMs have done a good job initializing this feature and have tracked it well today. HRRR/RAP/NAM3km all have this feature develop convection over the KS/MO border, mainly over the KC Metro area early this afternoon. Two current thunderstorms over Johnson CO KS verify this solution and provide some confidence in utilizing the CAMs for timing and intensity of the storms. Severe weather chances remain low with a lack of proper shear, but the MCV has altered the mesoscale environment enough to provide 15-20kts of effective shear. This combined with MLCAPE of near 2000 J/kg, PWAT values near 2", warm cloud thickness of 13kft, and an MBE vector of 2kts all point to possible flash flooding over impervious surfaces, and possible flooding over other areas if training storms develop. The main concern is the KC Metro area as the remainder of the area has very high flash flood guidance of nearly 3"/hour and 4"/3 hour due to how dry it has been. This flooding threat will mainly occur from 2 to 7pm CDT as the MCV pushes through. This feature will also help enhance storms along a surface convergent boundary from KC to near Macon CO, as seen on satellite and radar. Flooding could become an issue if training storms occur for more than 3 hours, but otherwise the area should be able to take a good amount of rain. As this MCV moves east cloud will clear tonight creating the possibility of patchy dense fog for areas that end up with a saturated surface tonight. This feature also looks to wash out the diffuse frontal boundary that was expected to form up precipitation overnight and into Sunday, so most PoP mentions have been taken out for tomorrow. This lack of cloud coverage and precip will mean the temperatures will also be higher than expected, with highs in the mid 90s and HI values near 100 tomorrow now expected. Surface high pressure will build into the area Monday shifting winds to the north. This will create convergence over our southern CWA that will interact with higher dewpoints and spark of some scattered showers in the afternoon. As the high pressure moves east it will allow some cooler, normal for this time of year, temperatures to make their way into the area with highs only in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 60s. This nice weather Tuesday will be short lived as an upper level shortwave pushes through the central plains and helps deepen a surface low pressure over Kansas that will enhance showers and storms along the isentropic accent over eastern KS and western MO Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain relatively cool with highs in the mid 80s, so this cooler, wetter pattern may be very welcomed by most. This quasi-stationary boundary will stall over our area through early Thursday providing much needed widespread rainfall over our area with forecasted rainfall totals up to 1". Upper level ridging will start to build into the plains on Friday indicating the abnormally high temperatures will return going into next weekend. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1216 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018 The main hazard this period will be a complex of thunderstorms that will push through the KC Metro area this afternoon, just south of KSTJ. These storms are likely to have heavy rain and visibilities reduced to MVFR or even IFR at times. Winds will remain light and variable, outside of thunderstorms, throughout the period. These light winds in combination with clear skies and a wet ground will set up possible visibility issues in fog tomorrow morning. Currently only MVFR visibilities have been added to the TAFs, but if the area gets a solid amount of rain and the ground is wet then visibility may drop into the IFR range in future forecasts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Barham Aviation...Barham