FXUS63 KDVN 240227 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 927 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ARCING BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN CWA FROM CENTRAL IL. STRENGTHENING ELEVATED WARM...MOIST ADVECTION ATTENDANT TO LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE SFC BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST IA RESULTING IN EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST IA ATTM. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP INTO CWA REST OF THIS EVE INTO OVRNGT WITH VEERING JET AND PASSING DISTURBANCE. SHEAR IS LACKING AND SO SEVERE RISK APPEARS MINIMAL AND MAINLY OF PULSE TYPE FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL 1-2+ INCHES GIVEN MESO-BETA CONVECTIVE SCALE ELEMENTS MOVING AT 10-19 KTS...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES THROUGH 12Z. SINCE THE EARLIER FLASH FLOOD WATCH INCLUDED THE QUAD CITIES FOR WHICH MANY LOCATIONS HAVE NOT HAD HARDLY ANY MEASURABLE RAIN PAST 8-10+ DAYS... FELT OBLIGATED TO EXPAND IT SOUTHWARD TO CATCH THE AREAS WHERE IT IS IN FACT RAINING OR WILL BE SOON. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TO JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE A MESO HIGH WAS COLLAPSING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. SYNOPTIC LOWS WERE NEAR KDDC AND NORTH OF KAMA WITH FRONTS CONNECTING BOTH OF THEM. A PRE-FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA TO NEAR KFNB WHILE THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA TO NEAR KHSI. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH 50S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THE QUESTION IS NOT IF STORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT/MONDAY BUT WHERE AND WHEN. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR EAST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES WERE THE OUTFLOW INITIATED CONVECTION AND POST STRATIFORM RAIN IS LOCATED. THESE AREAS WILL BE SEEING THE RAIN END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS INTO MISSOURI IN CONCERT WITH THE SYNOPTIC LOWS AND FRONTS SHOULD THEN BECOME THE INITIATION POINTS FOR NEW CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS HAVE NOT DONE WELL TODAY...THERE IS AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT SIGNAL INDICATING THE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION THIS EVENING. IF THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ARE CORRECT...A NEW UPSCALE MCS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR THE CURRENT HEADLINES...THEY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE. THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA ARE MOST AT RISK BUT THE MCS SIGNALS ARE SUGGESTING THE HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES 2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WOULD NEED TO OCCUR BEFORE PROBLEMS WOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...SUCH HEAVY RAIN IN URBAN AREAS WOULD CAUSE PONDING OF WATER. MONDAY...THE MCS SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS WOULD THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF A RESPECTABLE COLD POOL DEVELOPS IT MAY PRECLUDE ANY NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING. MAX TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL FROM THE MCS. ..08.. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 MONDAY NIGHT...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS REMAIN HIGH WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT COULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. RISES IN RIVER LEVELS WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK VORT MAX PASSES OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNCERTAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EACH DAY WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 70S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROF DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS CHANGE WILL USHER IN A COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY MAKING FOR PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AREAS OF CHANNELED VORTICITY RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PASSES NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. ..KUHL.. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 LAPS SOUNDINGS REVEAL CAPPING INVERSION HAS STRENGTHENED IN WAKE OF EARLIER LINE OF CONVECTION. THUS... EXPECT TO REMAIN QUIET UNTIL AFTER DARK WHEN NOCTURNAL COOLING AND WEAKENING OF CAP COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY TO RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS SUGGEST COULD SEE A BREAK OR DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TIED TO DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. GAVE IT MY BEST ATTEMPT ON TIMING OF PCPN AT THE TERMINALS AND WILL REFINE/AMEND AS NEEDED WHEN PCPN BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THE STORMS... WHICH WILL BRING RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL ALSO NOT OUT OF QUESTION WITH STRONGEST STORMS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN- CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA- JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA- MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON. IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL- HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND- STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...05 SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...KUHL AVIATION...05  FXUS63 KDVN 210833 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 333 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER SE MN WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IL. WITH THE CWFA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR...65 TO 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN PLACE. ALOFT... NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AT 500MB AN UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA. STRONG WAVE RIDING THE JET OVER SOUTHERN IA THIS MORNING. LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ROLLING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS IA THIS MORNING PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN IA AWAY FROM THE UPPER FORCING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE BOUNDARIES AND CLOUD DEBRIS IN THE CWA TO CONTEND WITH TODAY. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE TEMPERATURES AND DELAY REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMP. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED LIFT. THIS LIFT WILL WORK WITH THE UPPER WAVE AS IT CATCHES UP LATER TODAY AND THE DIURNAL HEATING TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER EASTERN IA AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONG AND DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS MAINLY A MULTICELL STORM THREAT WITH ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. CONTINUED HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER (1.5+) AND FORECAST SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN WITH ONLY A MODEST HAIL THREAT. ONCE STORMS MOVE OUT THIS EVENING...FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MURKY. SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF DEPICT SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF VARYING INTENSITY TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH STILL WELL TO WEST AS IT STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS...A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LOCAL AREA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DMD .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 PATTERN SET TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BOUTS OF STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND INCREASE IN FLOODING. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM SHUTTLING DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE TO RESULT IN PERIODIC BOUTS OF STORMS. MAIN CHALLENGES WITH TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THESE PERTURBATIONS WITH IMPACTS ON MAGNITUDE AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PCPN CHCS. SUNDAY MAY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS IN THE EARLY AM WITH VEERED SOUTHWESTERLY JET... WITH SOME DECREASE IN ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER PM WHEN HEATING AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS. SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH 0-6KM GENERALLY SHOWN AT OR BELOW 25 KTS THUS ANY SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW. MAINLY MULTICELL STORMS WITH MAIN CONCERN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE SUGGESTED AS PERIOD OF GREATEST PCPN CHCS AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM PLAINS THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VLY AND INTERACTS WITH DEEP MOISTURE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH STRENGTH OF SYSTEM WHICH TIED TO DEGREE OF PHASING OR INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN CANADA SYSTEM. IF MORE PHASING OR INTERACTION RESULTS IN STRONGER SYSTEM THEN SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS OF 1-3+ INCHES GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THIS WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON FLOODING RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER CRESTS IN SOME AREAS... SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RIVER FLOODING. SOME ISOLD SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT... BUT GIVEN THE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS MAIN RISK WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. TUE INTO WED... MUCH OF THIS PERIOD SUGGESTED AS BEING DRIER WITH REDUCED PCPN POTENTIAL WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EARLY ON. THU-FRI... PATTERN APPEARS SET TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE /UNSETTLED LATE WEEK AND IMMEDIATELY BEYOND WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 AN AREA OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL IOWA WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER AREA TAF SITES THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCID. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL AREA TAF SITES...AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 AREA TRIBUTARIES AND THE MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONGER DISTURBANCE INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BURLINGTON ON THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST... OTHER SITES ARE GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ATTIM. HOWEVER... IF THE HEAVY WIDESPREAD SOAKING OF 1-3+ INCHES OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN WILL EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RIVERS WITH RENEWED RISES AND MUCH HIGHER CRESTS. IN ADDITION...THE FLOODING SITUATION COULD ALSO EXPAND TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN TRIBUTARIES INCLUDING THE DES MOINES...FOX...SKUNK AND LA MOINE RIVERS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ON AREA RIVERS OR WHO WOULD BE IMPACTED BY HIGH WATER LEVELS SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FORECASTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DMD SHORT TERM...DMD LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...DMD HYDROLOGY...05/RP KINNEY  FXUS63 KDVN 052022 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WAS TRANSPORTING WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MOST LOCATIONS WERE IN THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE. PERSISTENT HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES LINGERED...IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. FOR TONIGHT...INCREASED WAA WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...WITH A TYPICAL NE TO SW GRADIENT. LIGHT FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED...NONE OF THE DENSE VARIETY. FOR MONDAY...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT. THE WRF CONTINUES TO BE AMONG THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...AND WOULD KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED HOURLY POPS FASTER THAN THE WRF...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. LOOKING AT THE HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS...THE WRF IS GENERATING MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.75 INCHES ALONG THE NARROW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS...LIKELY OVERDONE...BUT VALUES SHOULD STILL TOP 2 INCHES. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 13-14K FEET SUGGEST EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES TO WRING OUT THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. CORFIDI VECTORS ALSO POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING STORMS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING. AFTER A SEVERAL DAY RESPITE FROM HEAVY RAIN...ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS LIKELY DO NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALIZED VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. REGARDING SEVERE STORMS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH PRECIP LOADED STORMS IN A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR MEANS THAT QUARTER SIZE OR LARGER HAIL WILL LIKELY BE VERY HARD TO COME BY. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FRINGES...IS NOW IN THE SWODY2 SLIGHT RISK AREA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH A BIT LARGER...NW/LOW 80S TO SE/UPPER 80S... GRADIENT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THE OVERALL SIGNAL POINTS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNING ACTIVE AGAIN WITH THE FLOW ALOFT COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT KNOWN WITH ANY CERTAINTY IF THIS WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLOW PATTERN. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EXITS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE FORCING IS MAINLY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT AND PWATS ARE EXTREMELY HIGH. ALTHOUGH NOT AT A MAXIMUM FOR JULY...THE PWATS ARE GENERALLY AROUND THE 99TH PERCENT LEVEL WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE GROUND HAS DRIED OUT ENOUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE AN INCH OF RAIN WITH NO PROBLEMS. STORMS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE EXTREMELY EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING RAINFALL. THIS RAINFALL COULD BE EXCESSIVE IF STORMS WOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. PRESENTLY THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL SUGGESTING THIS. ALTHOUGH SLOW...THE FRONT SHOULD NOT STALL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF TUESDAY MORNING WILL END DURING THE MORNING LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS MISSOURI BY SUNSET TUESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL BE IMPORTANT REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DEVELOPING A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN MISSOURI THAT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. GOING ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THAT OVERSPREADS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON... THE MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. VARIABLES IN PLAY ARE WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP...WHERE POTENTIAL NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOP AND MOVE...AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THESE DRY PERIODS MAY BE MANY HOURS LONG. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL TO GIVE ANY CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THOSE DRY PERIODS MAY OCCUR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING AN EARLIER ONSET OF MVFR TYPE FOG...GENERALLY 03Z TO 07Z TONIGHT. WRF LAYER RH TIME SECTIONS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AS WELL...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF THE 18Z TAFS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...RP KINNEY  FXUS63 KDVN 070858 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 358 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST KS TO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL AND TO NORTHEAST WI. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED IN THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWAT'S (OVER 2 INCHES) AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE INTENSITY/ LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND THE IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW WARMING TOPS. THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE ACROSS THE DVN CWA. MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD TO WESTERN IA AND INTO SW KS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXISTED WITH 3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT AN AUTUMN-LIKE AIRMASS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. READINGS THERE WERE IN THE 40S AT MANY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 HEADLINES...WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. TODAY...LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY BECOMING SCATTERED AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE THIS MORNING THEN I WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL DRY HOURS APPEAR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. THIS WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BUT CERTAINLY NOT AS HOT AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST WEEK. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. TONIGHT...CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL OF THIS WILL ADD UP TO STRONG VERTICAL MOTION TAPPING RECORD OR NEAR RECORD (FOR SEPTEMBER) PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 2.30 INCHES. THEREFORE...THE REASONING FOR ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WHICH WILL RUN THROUGH TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON REPEATING OR BACK-BUILDING STORMS THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL TOTALS. LOCAL 3 TO 5 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE LOCATION OF THIS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ON THE MESO-SCALE AT THIS TIME. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 UNSETTLED/WET TO START THEN TURNING MUCH COOLER LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND MAINLY DRY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AS BROAD RIBBON OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES H250 JET OVERSPREADS STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WITH RESULTANT WEAK SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE REGION. MOD/STRONG FORCING AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITH PWATS NEAR SEPTEMBER RECORD LEVELS AT 2+ INCHES OR 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO NORMS... ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 14KFT AGL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. ADDING IN FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTION WITH MESO-BETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES AROUND 10 KTS AND POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING AND AREAS OF TRAINING WITH SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET COULD RESULT IN SWATHS OF 1-3+ INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE DAY (ESPECIALLY THE MORNING) ON TUESDAY LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS ON TUESDAY 1-3 DEGS DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH RANGE OF UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGS... BUT MAY NEED FURTHER LOWERING IF RAIN AND THICKER LOW CLOUDS LINGER. TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD OFFERS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL LOCATION/MOVEMENT. SIMILAR INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS AND RESULTANT SURFACE WAVE ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THE CHALLENGE THOUGH IS THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL... WHICH IS TIED TO MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AS SOME MODELS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD FAVOR THIS NEXT ROUND JUST BRUSHING SOUTHEAST CWA BUT MAINLY FURTHER SOUTH/EAST... WHILE OTHERS SLOWER WITH FRONT AND WOULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR WOULD LIKELY NEED TO MAINTAIN FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF QUAD CITIES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE... GENERAL SUGGESTION FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST... WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FAVORING SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION PROVIDING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY 50S. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... SHORTWAVE WITH DIGGING TROUGH PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT... AND REINFORCING AND STRONGER BOUT OF COOLER AIR WILL THEN SETTLE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A FALL-LIKE PREVIEW AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. JUST HOW MUCH BELOW NORMAL REMAINS THE QUESTION AND CHALLENGE FOR LATER SHIFTS... AS GFS AND ECM VARY ON STRENGTH OF THE COOLING (3C TO 7C AT 850 MB) ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 06Z TAFS UPDATED TO ADJUST TIMING OF THE RAIN ONSET OVERNIGHT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON...WITH IFR VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY IN HIGHER INTENSITY RAINFALL. STORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SPARSE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE REDEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAASE SHORT TERM...HAASE LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...RP KINNEY  FXUS63 KDVN 080850 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 350 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS AM WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE... AND WITH INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ATTENDANT TO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES H25 JET. WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS SUGGESTED BY OBS AND MSAS ANALYSIS OVER NORTHWEST IA AND GENERALLY SHOWN TO TRANSLATE E/NE TODAY ATTENDANT TO RIGHT ENTRAMCE REGION OF JET... AND ALSO IN LINE WITH LATEST 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS. THIS SHOULD AID IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE CWA TODAY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN/EVE AS LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA USHERING IN DRIER AIR ON DEVELOPING NORTHERLY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TODAY WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGING TO NEAR 2 INCHES. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET... APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN BLOSSOMING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AM. HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO PER NAEFS) AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-14 KFT AGL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. STORM MOTIONS NOT QUITE AS SLOW AS SHOWN YESTERDAY AM WITH MESO-BETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES AROUND 15 KTS... BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR RAINFALL TO ADD UP QUICKLY OVER SHORT TIME PERIODS. IN ADDITION... VEERING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET COULD LEAD TO SOME RISK FOR BACKBUILDING OR LOCALIZED TRAINING OF STORMS ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GENERAL AVERAGE OF 0.25 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED WITH AREAS OF 2-3+ INCHES POSSIBLE WITH REPETITIVESTORMS... WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ONLY CHANGE TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TO DROP OFF SOME AREAS N/W OF QUAD CITIES BY 18Z AS LOW PASSES AND FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SHUNTING HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA... WITH THIS TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTN INTO EVE. HIGHS TODAY MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN... AND WITH PLENTY OF BOTH SHOULD STAY SUPPRESSED MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGS. TONIGHT... STILL CHANCES OF SHOWERS UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WITH GREATEST CHANCES INCLUDING SOME STORMS TO BE FOUND SOUTH/EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES AND MAINLY IN THE EVE. DRIER AIR ARRIVING ON NORTHERLY WINDS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING NORTH/WEST WHERE COOLEST LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ANTICIPATED... WHILE 60S FOR LOWS ELSEWHERE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2015 FORECAST FOCUS ON A MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COOLER PATTERN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END WEDNESDAY MORNING IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE A MAINLY DRY AND MILD PERIOD WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN DROPPING A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTH. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY SENDING A CHUNK OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. QUITE THE REVERSAL FROM A WEEK AGO WHEN HIGHS WERE IN THE 90S. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A COOL WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE BUT HOW COOL TO GO IS THE QUESTION AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR. THE ECMWF CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ACTUALLY FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NOWHERE NEAR THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ECMWF. FOR NOW THE ALLBLEND HAS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP CORRECT THEN THESE READINGS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED BY AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ECMWF/GFS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR IN RETURNING A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT/BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 80. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KMLI/KBRL. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON WITH PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER INTENSITY RAIN. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JONES-LINN. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA- MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON. IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR JO DAVIESS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL- HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE. MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND. && $$ SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...HAASE AVIATION...RP KINNEY  FXUS63 KDVN 282048 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT (PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT (HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE VERY LOW. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C. WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE SHORT TERM...MCCLURE LONG TERM...UTTECH AVIATION...MCCLURE  FXUS63 KDVN 270824 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 324 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016 High pressure brought mostly clear skies, aside from some mid- level clouds across the south, and light winds. Temperatures remain mild in the mid to upper 60s. GOES IFR probability product highlighting areas along and south of highway 136 for possible dense fog. However, do not have sfc obs in this region to confirm fog formation. Further south, Kirksville, MO and Quincy, IL are reporting 1/4SM FG. Will continue to monitor conditions and likely handle with a special weather statement if necessary. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016 Today...Bit more of a range in temps compared to the last few days - from the lower 80s north of highway 20 to the lower 90s along/south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, IL. Daytime mixing forecast to increase NW winds to 10-20 mph from the late morning through the aftn. Humidity will be very comfortable with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Tonight...Mostly clear and cooler in the upper 50s on avg. 850mb trough and associated cold air advection drop in from the north during this period, causing 850mb temps to fall to around 10 C by early Tuesday morning. Uttech .LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016 Expect dry and cooler conditions on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Afternoon highs will range from the low 70s near Freeport to around 80 degrees near Keokuk. For Wednesday, afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer, but still slightly below normal for late June. There will likely be one main period of potential showers and storms through the extended, but synoptic models remain inconsistent on the timing. The 27/00z GFS and GEM are stronger solutions with initial rain chances Wednesday, followed by more showers/storms with the main fropa Thursday and Thursday night. The ECMWF is the weakest solution with rain only in the far north Thursday afternoon/evening. Blended model pops range from 20 to 40 percent from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Rain will likely not occur all three periods, but will not vary from the model blend as it is difficult to rule out any particular period at this time. High pressure will be the dominant feature Thursday night through Sunday with little or no chance of additional rain. Expect near to slightly below normal temps, with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016 Generally VFR conditions with clear to mostly clear skies to with light westerly to northwesterly winds the next 24 hours as weak high pressure dominates. Patchy ground fog will be possible overnight due to light winds and possibly trapped low level moisture with visibilities possibly reduced as low as 2 miles and possibly even a bit less at one or more terminal until sunrise. && .DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Uttech SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...RP Kinney AVIATION...Nichols  FXUS63 KDVN 142059 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 359 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Latest SFC analysis was indicating tightening south to southeasterly pressure gradient up the plains and acrs the upper midwest. Low to mid 60 sfc dpts noted upstream of the flow acrs OK and northeastern TX. Solid stratocu deck from KS to central and eastern IA has eroded some in areas for partly cloudy to mostly clear patches. Aloft, vigorous vort max with associated baroclinic leaf was noted acrs southeastern MO and up the OH RVR Valley, while broad scale low amplitude southwesterlies occupied the western CONUS to the lee of Pacific NW storm system. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Tonight...Main challenge tonight will be the cloud cover and if it fills back in and engulfs the rest of the CWA into the early morning hours. Several of the short range models and their RH progs suggest that the stratocu will fill back in nocturnally and then continue to slide eastward overnight and will play it that way. Enough of a in-building southerly gradient to maintain sfc winds overnight of 8-12 MPH or so especially under areas of cloud cover. Will not put in any mention of drizzle or sprinkles overnight for now with questions of adequate cloud thickness and saturation, but there could be some acrs the far west and northwestern CWA late. Will go with lows in the 50-55 degree range with the cooler readings east of the MS RVR where clear skies linger the longest. With any delay in cloud cover making it into the east, lows could dip into the 40s in those areas. South winds will advect increasing sfc dpts and warmer air itself, making for some non-diurnal temp trends late tonight. Saturday...Current trends and fetch from the south should make for a mostly cloudy, breezy and seasonably mild day. Feel the NAM and GFS advecting mid to upper 60 dpts acrs the area overdone some, but could see the upstream lower to mid 60 readings make it acrs portions of the area by later afternoon. Cloud cover may make the cooler of temp guidance(The MAV's upper 60s to lower 70s) more in line, but for now will go with a model blend which advertises more in the way of low to mid 70s. If we were going to have full sunshine, highs would range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Will keep the patchy drizzle or sprinkles in the west during the morning and early afternoon with some thickening of the deck expected, but the afternoon may be more in the way of sctrd light showers mainly along and west of the MS RVR. MUCAPES may range from 600 to around a 1000 J/KG west of the MS RVR by late afternoon, but it may be more the plume of elevated CAPES of 400-800 J/KG that support at least some isolated thunderstorms rooted aloft in northeastern IA mainly after 4 PM. Both llvl and deep layer shear will really be on the increase from the west as well late in the day and may allow for a stronger storm in the northwest toward sunset. ..12.. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Initial focus is with storms Saturday night and the potential for severe weather. A strengthening 40-45+ kt low level jet ahead of an approaching cold front along with increasingly diffluent flow aloft with a shortwave passing through the Upper Midwest will come together for showers and storms developing Saturday evening. Strong shear with 0-6km of 30-35 kts and modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg support the potential for a few strong to severe storms, especially west of the Mississippi River over portions of northeast and east central Iowa where best overlap of shear and instability is depicted. Main threat is large hail and damaging winds, but can't rule out an isolated tornado with 0-1km shear of 35-40 kts being depicted which is not too far off from last Friday, and with a bit more low level instability and weak SBCIN. In addition heavy rainfall is likely with strongest cells with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches, but fast storm motion should limit amounts and preclude any potential for flooding as it appears right now. Sunday the cold front looks to pull up stationary over roughly the northern half or so of the area, with weak ridging aloft. The concern will be potential for low clouds and a bust on highs (too warm) north of I-80, as BUFR soundings show decent inversion with abundant low level moisture and given time of year could be difficult to excavate clouds. I have started to trim back highs a bit on Sunday along and north of Highway 30 (lower 70s), but they could end up needing to be lowered further. Stayed near 80 south where anticipate more sunshine. Next week, the flow pattern will transition from southwest to fast zonal flow. The week looks to begin on an unseasonably warm note with highs well above normal (20-25+ degrees), with highs in the upper 70s and lower to possibly a few mid 80s Monday with gusty southerly winds. A cold front looks to pass Monday night into early Tuesday and indications are not much chance of rain with weak forcing. This front will gradually lower temperatures down from the 70s on Tuesday back into the 60s Wednesday still near to slightly above normal for mid October. The models really diverge mid to late next week on timing and evolution of western energy. General trends and signal support our next chance of rain late Wednesday through Thursday. ECM is more progressive and keeps bulk of energy and rain to our south and most of cwa on drier side. GFS being slower and stronger allows more moisture entrainment into evolving southwest to northeast baroclinic zone for a wetter and cooler scenario late Wednesday through Thursday. Blended forecast is not aggressive with pops and mild on temperatures mid to late week, but overall confidence is low. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Main challenge will be timing MVFR stratocu deck from the west at the TAF sites, with CID and possibly BRL being the first to get under the deck this afternoon, and DBQ/MLI tonight. South to southeast sfc winds this afternoon gusting to 20 KTs where the sun lasts the longest or on edge of incoming cloud deck. Some IFR decks possible under brunt of the cloud deck overnight into early Sat morning, with 4-6SM VSBY around sunrise. Winds overnight to maintain from the south at 8-12 KTs. With southwesterly winds at 30+ KTs projected aloft at around 2000 FT AGL toward 12z Sat, not that far off of LLVL wind shear set up. Low MVFR cloud deck expected for much of Sat morning with southerly SFC winds picking up to 10-20 KTs by late morning. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...12 SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...12  FXUS63 KDVN 220952 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 352 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Similar to the last several nights, light winds and sufficient low-level moisture has led to areas of dense fog across E Iowa/NW Illinois with visibilities less than 1/4 mile at times. The fog has been slowest to set in over the Quad Cities area, but even here visibilities are beginning to drop. Areas of clearing in sky cover has allowed for more radiational cooling, so fog likely not as vertically deep as the past few nights. Outside the DVN WFO, it is a shallow, but dense, ground fog. Also, it is colder early this morning with sfc temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 This Morning: Dense Fog Advisories in effect through 12 PM, but thinking many counties may be dropped several hours early. Sfc temps near or below freezing for many locations means the potential is there for slick roadways and sidewalks from areas of freezing fog - something to keep in mind if traveling this morning. Make sure to slow down and use extra caution. Fog across E Iowa/NW Illinois is more radiationally driven as opposed to the past few nights which were synoptically forced. This is corroborated by lower GOES liquid-cloud thickness values compared to recent early mornings. Hi-res model guidance (RAP/HRRR/NMM) and sfc obs in north-central IA suggest NW/N sections of the forecast area may be the first to see visibilities improve as steady NW winds develop. This Afternoon and Tonight: Another mild and cloudy mid to late January day on tap. Forecast highs are in the 40s most locations. There is a slight chance for light rain showers through midday in the SE CWA, which is on NW periphery of a large low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Steady NW winds should preclude areas of dense fog overnight. Added mention of patchy fog across the north third of the CWA. All-in-all not expecting a significant impact. Uttech .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Main focus is the system that will lift through Tuesday and Wednesday. Colder weather is on track to follow late week into the weekend, when temperatures should return closer to late January normals in the 20s and 30s. Forecast confidence is low with the details of the early week system. While the track of the surface low remains somewhat consistent, from NW MO through northern IL, there continue to be timing differences among the models that will be critical for precipitation types. Our model blended forecast approach for precipitation types for now results in an onset of possible snow in the warm advection out ahead Tuesday morning over eastern IA, mixing with rain and then changing to all rain in the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 40s. The onset could easily be late enough to eliminate the snow potential. Similarly, any rain or drizzle will likely transition to light snow following the passing surface low and advection of what looks to be sufficiently cold strong air advection. For now this transition will be advertised Tuesday night, with an advertised transition back to rain or rain/snow mix, then snow again as the system exits Wed into Wed night. The current path suggests potential snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches Tue night into early Wed, north of highway 30. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday cool considerably under an active, and cyclonic N-NW flow aloft. There may be a few rounds of flurries or very light snow in this stretch, but confidence is too low to pin down specific timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Period of clearing skies will lead to the development of dense fog and lifr/vlifr conditions overnight. Stratus is likely to move back across northeast Iowa overnight along with a light west to northwest wind in wake of a surface trough, and this should bring about some improvement in visibilities at CID and DBQ prior to 12z but conditions still likely at least ifr in cigs and vis. Dense fog could linger at MLI and BRL until mid morning or 14-15z before lower clouds and west/northwest wind develop. Anticipate fog lifting at all sites by 18z Sunday then n/nw winds around 10 kts with mainly lower mvfr cigs lingering with a chance of some pockets of ifr early afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 ...Ice Action Continues on Many Area Rivers... Rock River: It appears that the ice that was jammed yesterday in the Joslin area has since broken up and moved downstream. Over the past 24 hours, Joslin dropped nearly 3 feet and is now in minor category flooding. Based on most recent readings, the ice from Joslin may be currently moving through Moline, where readings were fluctuating around a half foot and it has briefly touched major flood stage of 14 feet. As this moves through, will need to watch for fluctuations of a foot or more, at Moline today. Further upstream, ice action that was in the Dixon area yesterday appears to be passing the Como gage, where it spiked to moderate flooding last evening, but has since dropped below flood stage. Additional ice action issues can be expected as this ice advances downstream through Joslin and eventually Moline over the next couple days. Forecasts are thus low confidence and stages could easily go higher than forecast as ice moves through the area. Mississippi River: The large ice jam that has been restricting flow downstream of Burlington since January 7 has broken up and the stage was rapidly falling at both Gladstone and Burlington. Gladstone has dropped near 3 feet in the past 24 hours and is now below flood stage, and with no additional flooding expected the flood warning will be dropped. Burlington is on a similar trend, with a 2 foot drop and was now in minor category flooding. At the current rate, we may be able to drop the flood warning there later today. Downstream, this was resulting in rising river levels at Keokuk and Gregory Landing, where it is expected to crest just below flood stage. Cedar River: An ice jam was impacting the river along Conesville, where the stage jumped 3 feet Saturday, briefly above moderate flood stage last evening. A corresponding drop of nearly 3 feet has occurred downstream at Columbus Junction. Rapid fluctuations of several feet will be likely along this stretch until this ice makes it way downstream. Ice action continues along nearly all other eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois tributary rivers. Continued mild weather and channeled flow due to runoff from recent rain will continue the threat of ice jams through at least mid week. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Benton-Buchanan- Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa- Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa- Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Bureau-Carroll- Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer- Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Clark-Scotland. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Uttech SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Sheets AVIATION...McClure HYDROLOGY...Sheets  FXUS63 KDVN 190835 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 335 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Upper level shortwave and attendant showers will be exiting northwest IL counties prior to daybreak. System brought showers to a fair amount of the cwa yesterday afternoon through evening, though rain amounts were unfortunately rather light (less than 0.1 inch) but some isolated moderate amounts (0.25-0.6 inch) attendant to storms in portions of west central into northwest IL. Clouds continue to decrease from west to east in the wake of the shortwave, and combined with light winds and low level moisture enhanced by recent rain is aiding widespread dense fog and low clouds mostly south/west of Quad Cities. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Dense fog looks to burn off within an hour or two after sunrise per GOES cloud thickness technique. Stratus may persist beyond for a while, but increasing mid/upper level heights should aid in decreasing clouds this afternoon. Banking on this amount of solar insolation to push highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Surface warm front is shown to bisect the cwa today, but absence of forcing with heights building aloft, and weak low level convergence precludes from any precip mention today. Precip chcs are not zero however, as pretty decent 850 mb theta-e advection is progged to develop by mid afternoon through this evening from sw to ne with strengthening LLJ, but soundings show fairly shallow moisture depth resulting in confidence too low for any mention. Did hang on to some small PoPs late tonight over northeast IA for potential of some elevated convection developing with veering LLJ and attendant advection, and can't rule out some activity into east central IA near/sw of Quad Cities as well but far from coherent signal in CAMs. Lows tonight in strengthening southerly flow will remain mild and generally in the 60s, although a few sites could only drop into the lower 70s in west/southwest cwa. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through next Monday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Wednesday...a challenging fcst day with mixed signals from the latest available 00z run models. Cyclonic southwesterly steering flow adjusts acrs the mid to upper MS RVR Valley, while embedded wave shears out acrs MN into the western LK Superior Basin by evening. Associated sfc front will look to get shunted acrs the central CWA by Wed evening and then stall as it aligns from NE-to- SW parallel to the steering flow. Just a low chance for some lingering convective debris or showers sagging acrs the CWA during the day left over from stronger activity earlier to the northwest, and for now will keep the slight CHC pops loaded in the grids. But with FCST soundings suggesting building cap/EML as the day progresses and loss of convergent lift, feel the dry 00z ECMWF and even the NAM may be more on target through 00z anyways. If precip doesn't materialize and debris decays early, extent of warm air advection and mixing southwest winds could boost temps into the upper 80s to lower 90s acrs much of the area and be not all that far off record highs for Sep 20th. The models are probably still overdoing sfc dpts near 70, and ongoing dry sfc layer/mixing may translate to values more in the mid 60s. If DPTs manage to make it in the upper 60s to around 70, heat index readings will range in the low to mid 90s Wed afternoon. Wednesday night may be the main precip window opportunity for the rest of the week. Southwesterly 20-25 KT LLJ flow starts to impinge on the lingering LLVL boundary, and as it tries to retreat back north some as a type of warm front, that's when sctrd showers and storms may develop nocturnally along and north/northwest of where even the boundary adjusts. More optimum shear profiles, southern flank of upper jet dynamics, and LLJ convergence look to occur further to the north acrs WI. But if storms get going locally, enough support there for at least an isolated strong to severe storm, even if elevated in nature. rainfall amounts to be localized again, with those that manage to get under a storm or shower cluster possibly getting up to a half inch by Thu morning. Many other areas to get little rain at all. Seasonably mild overnight lows in the 60s. Thursday and Friday...After a low chance of some lingering precip Thu morning out of what ever Wed activity can occur, the latest suite of medium range model runs all suggest a high amplitude-blocked up pattern taking grip acrs the CONUS between active western Atlantic tropical systems and western CONUS L/W Trof. The net result locally would be dry and very unseasonably warm conditions to end the week. A lot of upper 80s to low 90s look to be on tap, especially with a southerly flow recharge and deeper mix. Summer won't want to end on Friday. Saturday into early next week...longer range indications/upper jet trends suggest the blocked pattern to continue acrs the region maintaining unseasonable warmth and dry conditions through at least Sunday locally, compounding the drought conditions. Incoming lee side long wave transition zone, where western gulf northward moisture conveyor shuttles up along to fuel an elongated precip swath, now looks to edge east acrs the area later Mon into Tue. But this timing still very suspect at this juncture and depends on ongoing interaction with subsidence fields off/to the west of the Atlantic tropical system/s. ..12.. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night) ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Areas of fog and low clouds will increase overnight into the mid morning hours with extended periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions and possibly VLIFR conditions at all the terminals. Skies will clear by late morning with VFR conditions into the Tuesday evening. Winds will be light into mid morning and then become southerly at 5 to 10 mph. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Record Highs for Wed September 20... Moline.........92 in 1931 Cedar Rapids...93 in 1931 Dubuque........92 in 1895 Burlington.....93 in 1940 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Cedar- Clinton-Des Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson- Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren- Washington. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Hancock- Henderson-McDonough-Mercer-Rock Island-Warren. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Clark- Scotland. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McClure SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...Nichols CLIMATE...12