FXUS63 KDLH 190901 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 401 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH MONDAY... .SHORT TERM...AREA OF 85H FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS NR MN CWA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCTD CONVECTION ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED OVER LAST FEW HRS. MEANWHILE LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM SERN NODAK INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IOWA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH PWS AXIS AND EJECTING MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF. DENSE FOG STILL LINGERS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING...IF NOT LONGER. TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW...ANOMALOUS UPPER TROF OVER CTRL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES INTO THE REGION NEXT 48 HRS. MAIN FOCUS AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE INVERTED TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM SFC LOW ACROSS ERN SODAK INTO NWRN MN THIS AFTN. HAVE EXPANDED THE FFA TO INCLUDE ALL MN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY. VERY SLOW MOVING NATURE OF SFC/MID LVL LOW...VERY HIGH PWS..AND DEEP CYCLONIC NATURE OF UPPER FLOW WILL ENSURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AREAS BUT WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR/ABOVE 3KM ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE ACCESS TO VERY WET PROFILES INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW/MEDIUM ON FLOOD POTENTIAL. FFG VALUES ARE STARTING LOWEST OVER SWRN CWA HOWEVER REMAINDER OF CWA COULD EXPERIENCE ISSUES WITH TIME DUE TO PROLONGED NATURE OF QPF POTENTIAL. AT LOW LVLS...SFC HIGH OVER CANADA WILL SUPPLY INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LVL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW INTO MN THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TRY TO MAKE ITS AWAY INTO NERN MN...CURRENT IDEA IS THAT ANY COLD DOME ESTABLISHED FROM LAKE WILL BE TOPPED BY ADVECTION OF WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT. MAY NEED TO EXTEND FFA INTO WISC ZONES WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATES. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MASSIVE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE TOWARD THE IOWA/MN/SD BORDER BY 00Z WED. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AFTER THAT...MOVING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SAG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY OUT THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AND QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT TIMING ISSUES AND DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED SHOULD LARGELY BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME SPOTTY 70S AT TIMES...AND 40S AND 50S AT TIMES NEAR THE LAKE. .UPDATE...RETRANSMITTED NEW ZFP AFTER UPDATE OF GRIDS. POPS MINIMAL THROUGH 12Z. TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS NRN MN CWA IN AREA OF 85H FRONTOGENESIS...AND OVER SWRN CORNER CLOSER TO AREA OF INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING MCS. FFA STILL IN PLACE FOR PROSPECT OF ANOTHER DOSE OF RAIN BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 58 49 52 43 / 80 80 80 70 INL 62 51 56 45 / 80 70 70 70 BRD 73 54 65 49 / 80 80 80 70 HYR 79 60 72 52 / 70 70 80 70 ASX 58 51 58 45 / 80 80 80 70 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021- 025-026-033>038. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021- 037. WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148. && $$ SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM....DAP  FXUS63 KDLH 310856 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 356 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND IT'S FORECAST TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...THEN OPEN UP AS IT MOVES THROUGH MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND INTO WISCONSIN SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW WAS OVER NE SOUTH DAKOTA/SC NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE WAS AIDING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING...WITH RADAR SHOWING SEVERAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...IN LINE WITH THE HIGH RES NSSL/NMM WRF MODELS. WE DROPPED POPS FOR A TIME IN THE SOUTH...AND DECREASED THEM ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING...BUT MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NSSL WRF AND NAM IN DECENT AGREEMENT. WE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE NAM DEPICTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING...OVER OUR MINNESOTA ZONES FIRST...THEN MOVING EAST. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM HAS SHOWN DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OR AT LEAST THIN TODAY BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHEAR IS LACKING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME STRONG...TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA...BUT MORE SO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...AND WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE TWIN PORTS FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE VSBYS ARE LOWEST OVER THE HILL IN DULUTH...BUT ALSO INTO CLOQUET. WE DO EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TODAY...AND BE FROM 75 TO 80 ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING LAKESIDE TEMPS COOLER...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THE NORTH SHORE. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE LOW MIGRATES THROUGH THE REGION. STABILITIES WILL BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR MINNESOTA ZONES WHERE LOW LEVEL CAA WILL BE MOVING IN. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY FOR A TIME SATURDAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO DEPART THE CWA. COLDER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE FIFTIES OVER PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHWEST CWA. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES 10 TO 12F COOLER THAN TODAY. MUCH OF OUR MINNESOTA CWA WILL SEE SHOWER COVERAGE DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROF WITH ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION BAND SLIDES EAST. A SECONDARY MID LVL LOW WILL DROP TOWARDS NCTRL LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY SLOW DOWN PROGRESSION OF PARENT UPPER TROF ENOUGH THAT RESIDUAL CLOUDS/PRECIP MAY BE BIT SLOWER TO EXIT ERN WISC ZONES SUNDAY. MONDAY STILL APPEARS PLEASANT ALBEIT COOL AS SFC/MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHLAND. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO NRN PLAINS TUESDAY. SLOWED DOWN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ALLBLEND SOLUTION AS MID LVL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVERHEAD IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING NRN ROCKIES TROF. IT SEEMS THAT WARM ADVECTION REGIME WOULD SUPPORT PRECIP ONLY AS FAR EAST AS BRD LAKES REGION. SYNOPTIC PATTERN THEN TRANSITIONS TO A LARGE UPPER TROF IN NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WED/THUR. THERE ARE FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GEM/GFS/ECMWF ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF UPPER TROF DURING THIS PERIOD. UNSETTLED WX WILL RESULT WITH INITIALLY LOW CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD THUNDER. SHOULD SEE A GENERAL PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE FLUX OVERRIDING INITIAL COLD DOME FROM PRECEDING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH QPF ESTIMATION MAY BE TOUGH THIS MANY DAYS IN ADVANCE...INITIAL SUSPICION IS THAT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HIGH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE DEALING WITH CURRENTLY. SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR THE MOST PART. && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS A VERY CHAOTIC CLOUD FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE TAF PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A DRY SLOT WILL TEMPORARILY IMPROVE CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 70 51 61 40 / 60 60 60 40 INL 71 48 56 36 / 60 50 60 20 BRD 72 53 62 41 / 50 50 60 30 HYR 79 54 68 41 / 50 60 60 50 ASX 78 52 64 40 / 50 60 50 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MELDE LONG TERM....CANNON AVIATION...DAP  FXUS63 KDLH 191017 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 517 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014 MID LVL RIDGE OVERHEAD AS LONG WAVE TROF OVER WRN CONUS AMPLIFIES. WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. LATEST WSRVWP KDLH SHOWS WINDS 18540KTS AT 2K FT. LARGE CANOPY OF MID LVL CLOUDS APPROACHING CWA AT THIS HOUR. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON 88D ACROSS BORDERLAND HOWEVER MAINLY VIRGA AT THIS POINT. LATEST MSAS SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWS WEDGE OF DRY AIR EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF MN ZONES THROUGH BRD LAKES VICINITY. RAP13 85H MOISTURE PATTERN REVEALS MOST OF CWA IS STILL QUITE DRY AS MAIN MSTR TRANSPORT REMAINS WELL WEST OF CWA...CLOSER TO SFC LOW OVER WRN DAKOTAS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014 WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS STILL ON TRACK TO SPREAD OVER THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. SLOWER TREND IS STILL IN PLAY SO HAVE SHAVED LEADING EDGE WEST A FEW HRS. MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN OVER ARROWHEAD SOUTH INTO THE KDLH VICINITY. PROGRESSION OF SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL SWING A 40/45KT LLJ INTO THE CWA. THIS AXIS OF MSTR TRANSPORT IS FCST TO BE NEAR THE BRD LAKES AT 00Z...AND THE HYR LAKES TO ARROWHEAD LINE BY 06Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z. PWATS REACH BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST FORCING. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS REACH APPROX 10K FT SO RAINFALL RATES COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL. AT THIS POINT THE LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF. THIS MAY NARROW THE WINDOW OF GREATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE OMEGA AND PREVENT EVEN MORE PROLONGED PRECIP. AREAL AVERAGES OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE FFW AREA. HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. FFG VALUES SUGGEST 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN 3 HRS TIME MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. TERRAIN LIFT ALONG NORTH SHORE SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND WE MAY LOCALLY HIGHER QPF IN THIS CORRIDOR. TERRAIN WILL ALSO PROMOTE MORE RAPID RUNOFF AND INCREASE THREAT OF MORE RAPID RISES IN AREA WATERWAYS. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO TELL...THE EC HINTS AT A BIFURCATION OF THE LLJ THIS EVENING WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED PUSH OF HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. DAYSHIFT CAN WATCH FOR THAT POTENTIAL. EXPECT MAJORITY OF HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES TO DIMINISH AFTER 09Z TUESDAY HOWEVER WILL KEEP WATCH UNTIL 18Z TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE FOLLOWING INITIAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014 THE SFC LOW/H85 TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME AS NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND AN APPROACHING H50 VORT MAX. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED CAPE REACHES THE 1000 J/KG NEIGHBORHOOD WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE LIMITED MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF STORMS CAN FIRE TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TO BECOME SEVERE. HAVE CONTINUED TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES INTO THE UP COMING WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014 CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z TO 3Z... WITH THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION HAVING THE GREATEST PROBABILITY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 58 46 71 48 / 90 90 20 10 INL 61 47 64 42 / 90 90 40 40 BRD 58 51 75 48 / 80 60 10 10 HYR 62 51 74 51 / 80 90 20 10 ASX 64 47 72 48 / 90 90 20 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-019>021-037. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...GRANING AVIATION...MCLOVIN  FXUS63 KDLH 080842 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 342 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 MID LVL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PRESENCE. WITHIN THE CIRCULATION MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROFS CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE FLOW. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS AT LEAST 3 SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. SCTD SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/OCCUR OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA DESPITE LOSS OF EARLIER INSTABILITY. A WELL DEFINED SHEAR AXIS/WIND SHIFT IS INDICATED IN THE 925 FLOW FROM ERN LAKE COUNTY IN THE ARROWHEAD CURVING THROUGH THE APOSTLES. THIS IS RELATED TO A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BDRY REPRESENTED IN THE LOW LVL THERMAL FIELDS. HEAVY PRECIP...RADAR ESTIMATES AND GROUND REPORT OVER 2 INCHES IN IRON COUNTY...HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA. CALLS TO LOCAL LAW OFFICIALS IN THE AREA AND CHECK ON A FEW RIVERS INDICATES THREAT APPEARS TO BE OVER. HAVE LET FLS EXPIRE AT 3AM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW) ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 TODAY...BACK DOOR FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE INTO THE TWIN PORTS EARLY IN THE MORNING AND WEAKEN BY MIDDAY. DISTURBING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MDLS WITH REGARD TO TIME/HEIGHT XSEC OF MOISTURE WITH EC SUGGESTING WHATEVER LOW CLOUD IS EVIDENT IN MORNING WILL LIFT WITH DAYTIME WARMING. NAM12/RAP SUGGEST A LOW OVERCAST MAY DWELL INTO AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL GO PESSIMISTIC IN MORNING AND IMPROVING TREND IN AFTN. PESKY UPPER AIR PATTERN MAKES PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS A BIT CHALLENGING TODAY SO ADDITIONAL UPDATES MAY BE NECESSARY. WITH A LACK OF A LOW LVL FOCUS FOR BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE THE POPS ARE BASED ON A GUESSTIMATE OF THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. USING RUC13 THIS APPEARS TO LINE UP FROM THE IRON RANGE TO NW WISC DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE DIURNAL WARMING. HI RES SIM REFL PRODUCTS SHOW NATURE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH LARGE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ECHOES LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING OVER MOST OF CWA. SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN 925 TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO MAX TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER IN MANY AREAS. TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MID LVL TROF OVER ONTARIO AND THE GT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST. LOW LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL BE REPLACED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AS A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVES ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. HAVE INSERTED VERY LOW POPS OVER SERN PART OF CWA IN THE AFTN WITH AXIS OF FCST INSTABILITY....ALBEIT MEAGER...IN THE VICINITY. OTHERWISE A PLEASANT DAY WITH NEAR TYPICAL TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014 THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A LITTLE BELOW THEIR NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES BUT THESE POPS WILL BE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH HIS FEATURE. BOTH MODELS NOW AGREE THAT SATURDAY WILL BE DRY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS HAS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL REFINE AS THE WEEKEND GETS CLOSER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014 SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...BUT OCCASIONALLY THERE WILL BE SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 69 51 72 52 / 40 20 0 0 INL 67 48 72 50 / 40 20 0 0 BRD 74 53 76 55 / 20 10 0 0 HYR 71 49 74 49 / 50 20 10 0 ASX 66 49 70 49 / 40 30 10 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CANNON SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM...STEWART AVIATION...DAP  FXUS63 KDLH 142023 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 323 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN WILL USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ALSO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MUCH STRONGER WINDS TO THE WEST OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH ON WED. EXPECT TO SEE HIGH LEVEL THIN CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH WED MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD THICKNESS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE A WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS NOTICEABLY COOLER...IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING SUPPORTING NO PCPN. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. GFS/NAM BRING IN QPF WHILE ECMWF DRIER AND GEM HAS NO QPF. USED A MODEL BLEND WHICH GAVE SMALL POPS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY WHICH IS KEEPING DRIER AIR FROM BEING OVERCOME BY MOISTURE. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF POPS ON THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT PCPN FREE AS DRIER AIR LOCKED IN WILL BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME. MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS FOR FRIDAY WITH THE GFS WET...ECMWF DRY AND NAM/GEM IN BETWEEN. MAINTAINED THE BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTED IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. DIALED DOWN THE QPF WITH SUCH LARGE DISCREPANCIES. THESE DIFFERENCES PERSIST AND CONTINUED WITH THE BLENDED APPROACH WITH POPS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND IRON COUNTY WI AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES AWAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND USED A CONSENSUS FOR POPS/QPF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015 VFR. GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 14Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 41 65 43 62 / 0 0 10 10 INL 45 69 47 62 / 0 0 10 20 BRD 43 68 46 66 / 0 10 20 10 HYR 41 66 42 66 / 0 0 10 10 ASX 40 67 42 64 / 0 0 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...GSF  FXUS63 KDLH 211754 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1154 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 LIGHT SNOWFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A MILE AT TIMES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA RESULTING IN A COATING ACCUMULATING ON MANY AREA HIGHWAYS IN THIS REGION. IT SEEMS THE SUBTLE INCOMING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OUTPERFORMING EARLIER EXPECTATIONS...SO DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS/WX AND ADD A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN WHERE THIS WAVE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE...GENERALLY EAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. HAVE THE AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHING TOWARDS 00Z BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 A SHORT WAVE WITH SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE MAIN AREA OF SN ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS/PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TODAY AS THE DLHWRF/NAM AND GFS ARE ALL SUGGESTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SKIM BY THE BRAINERD LAKES TO HAYWARD LAKES REGION. FOCUS TURNS TO LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AND INCH EXPECTED ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE AND OVER THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TRAJECTORIES SWILL TURN NORTHERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN A AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO MANITOBA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING 850MB TEMPS TO ZERO TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK...SO SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE MODELS CONVERGE. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH. WE KEPT THE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A LIGHT MIX. AS THE UPPER WAVE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT THEY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHLAND. WE AGAIN ONLY HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WE KEPT MOST AREAS DRY ON SUNDAY AS THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS THOUGH AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. WE WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBLE INCLUSION AS WE NEAR THAT TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY AS A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE MEETS UP WITH A SOUTHERN WAVE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE SOUTH SHORE COULD RECEIVE MORE SNOWFALL THOUGH AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW AND ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT FOR LAKE EFFECT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER BRINGING IT THROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TWENTIES...AND WARM A COUPLE DEGREES SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO THE LOWER TO MID TWENTIES MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 OVC CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE VARIED BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE TREND TO CONTINUE. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD BRING IN A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT BRD AND HYR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AT HYR...ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...BEFORE RETURNING TO IFR BETWEEN 22.04Z AND 22.08Z. IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR VSBYS AT INL SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOCAL INCREASE IN CLOUD DEPTH PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY MID-AFTERNOON AND INTO MVFR CAT BY EVENING AS LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT DRIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 20 4 18 8 / 30 10 10 0 INL 15 -4 16 9 / 30 10 0 0 BRD 20 0 18 7 / 30 10 0 0 HYR 22 8 22 4 / 10 20 10 0 ASX 22 11 21 8 / 10 30 20 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJM SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...HUYCK  FXUS63 KDLH 091128 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 528 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 446 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 Main concern in the short term is significant lake effect snow along portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior. A trough will dig from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. This will develop a broad low over the Central Great Lakes. A surface trough will extend from the surface low into western Lake Superior, which will bring widespread snow to the Northland. Expect heavier snowfall along the South Shore mid to late Friday morning through the afternoon as flow aloft becomes north northwesterly and northerly. The 850 hPa to lake surface temperature differences will be between 15 to 20 degrees. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE at IWD. This setup will bring strong lake enhancement, particularly in Ashland, Bayfield and Iron counties. Increased precipitation chances and amounts in comparison to the previous forecast toward high resolution guidance. Anticipating snow rates to pick up as the day progresses with the 1 to 2 inches of snow per hour Friday afternoon. Travel will be difficult due to gusty winds and intense snowfall rates. The rest of the region will see light snow showers. Highs today will be in the 20s. Snowfall will gradually taper off from west to east tonight and early on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. Light lake effect snow will linger across north central Minnesota into the evening from Lake of the Woods. When it is all said and done snowfall totals will generally be light across much of the region (around an inch or less). The exception will be across the tip of the Arrowhead where 1 to 3 inches is expected and in Price county where 3 to 5 inches is expected. Amounts along the South Shore will be significant where in Bayfield totals will range from 3 to 5 inches. Northern Iron and Ashland county along Highway 77 will see amounts between 6 to 15 inches. The lower elevations of Ashland county, including the city of Ashland, will see values range from 3 to 5 inches. Lowered temperatures tonight as skies clear with high pressure building in and -10 to -15 degree Celsius 850 hPa air advecting in. This setup should allow for strong radiational cooling. Lows range from near 0 to the low teens. The next trough will dig into the Northern Plains Saturday afternoon. This will bring increasing cloud cover and spread light snow into north central Minnesota. Winds will be light on Saturday with highs ranging from the upper teens to the mid 20s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 446 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 A mid level wave crosses Saturday night into Sunday morning and will generate lift with a cold air mass in place, so bumped up PoPs compared to model guidance - especially since dendritic growth zone is situated directly aloft in a saturated parcel with respect to ice. After this weak low crosses, the return nw flow will bring lake effect snow to the south shore through at least Tuesday. This is the only appreciable weather maker in the long term. Temperatures continue to be well below normal. The coldest air arrives Tuesday morning. Later in the week temperatures warm above freezing. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 525 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 A complicated day ahead with snow showers rotating around a low situated over Lake Superior. This will bring IFR visibilities frequently to sites, but only for portions of each hour. A lot of lake enhanced snowfall - even on the smaller lakes will further muddle the forecast. High chance of IFR probably more than eluded to in the TAFs. Gusty winds will pick up later today. Conditions will improve late in the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 23 8 21 18 / 60 0 10 40 INL 20 5 21 15 / 40 10 10 40 BRD 22 6 22 17 / 20 20 50 80 HYR 24 9 24 18 / 90 40 10 40 ASX 26 14 25 16 / 90 60 10 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ002- 009. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121-141-142-146. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ147-148. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ147-148. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM CST Saturday for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CST this evening for LSZ140. && $$ SHORT TERM...WL LONG TERM...Wolfe AVIATION...Wolfe