FXUS61 KCAR 180744 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 344 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER TODAY THEN SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER FRIDAY THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A DRIER AND COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS MOVD S AND E OF THE FA W/ A SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED NE-SW ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA... THIS FRONT IS FCST TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY SEWRD THRU THE AM HR TO A POSN JUST S AND SW OF THE AREA WHERE IT WILL THEN BECOME NRLY STATIONARY BY ERLY AFTN. A SMALL BUBBLE HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BRIEFLY ACROSS NRN AREAS LATER TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE REGION TNGT. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO WORK ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA TDY W/ FCST HIGHS NR 80 W/ TDS FALLING TO AROUND A VRY COMFORTABLE 50. SRN AREAS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND MUGGY W/ THE SFC COLD FRONT UNABLE TO MAKE MUCH FURTHER SWRD PROGRESS. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS A CONT RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS OR PSBLY A TSTM ACROSS OUR FAR SWRN AREAS THIS AFTN... BY TNGT...ALL GUIDANCE SHIFTS THIS BUBBLE HIGH E OF THE AREA ALLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT JUST S AND SW OF THE REGION TO BEGIN MVG BACK TO THE NE AS A WARM FRONT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND PSBLY AN EMBD TSTM OR TWO TO SPREAD INTO FAR SWRN AND WRN AREAS THIS EVE THEN SPREAD NEWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THRU THE OVRNGT HRS. THE MUGGY AIR WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN BRIEFLY PUSHED OUT OF FAR NR AND NERN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD BACK NEWRD AGAIN OVRNGT TNGT AS WELL W/ TDS FCST TO RISE BACK TO NR 60 BY ERLY FRI AM... && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REGION IS IMPACTED BY A COUPLE OF PASSING FRONTS. THE FIRST WILL BE A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS ITS PARENT LOW TREKS EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO STREAM ALL THE WAY TO THE CROWN OF MAINE, RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE A BIT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THERE WILL BE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FRONTS, AS EVIDENCED BY PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 10.5 KFT MEANS ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE SBCAPES OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG, WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. ALSO NOTED THAT SPC HAS NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE IN A SLIGHT RISK IN THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK, MAINLY LATE (FRI EVE AND NIGHT). DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH. THIS AIRMASS WILL BRING RELIEF FROM MUGGINESS AND KEEP RAIN AWAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE EXTENDED MODELS AS WE GET TOWARD THE MID WEEK...WITH THE GFS KEEPING US UNDER DRY HIGH PRESSURE WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS LOW PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THIS PERIOD, GIVING ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDS EXPECTED INTO TNGT THO COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS ACROSS OUR SRN TAF SITES ERLY THIS AM. VFR CONDS TNGT W/ PSBL MVFR DVLPG IN SHOWERS SPCLY ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT TERM: ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL...WIDESPREAD MVFR/SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FIRST WITH A WARM FRONT THEN WITH A COLD FRONT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THRU TNGT. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DVLP OVR THE WATERS AGAIN TNGT AS VRY WARM AND HUMID AIR BEGINS TO PUSH NEWRD ONCE AGAIN. SHORT TERM: A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY, TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A SOUTH SWELL WILL DEVELOP WITH WAVES REACHING 4-6 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL TURN THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW WAVES TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...KHW/HASTINGS MARINE...KHW/HASTINGS  FXUS61 KCAR 252350 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 650 PM EST WED DEC 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE LATER THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL THEN BRIEFLY RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 600 PM UPDATE: IN ADDITION TO UPDATING FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS...FCST CLD CVRG WAS UPDATED TO INCREASE CLDNSS FASTER LATE TNGT...THIS BY USING MOS GUIDANCE CLD CVR WHICH BETTER INCORPORATES OPAQUE CLD CVR DUE TO HI RH AOA 500MB. LASTLY...WE INCREASED POPS FOR SPCLY THE WNTR WX ADV PTN OF THE FA TO APCH 100 PERCENT THU INTO THU EVE WHEN THE GREATEST 6 HRLY SNFLS ARE XPCTD WITH THIS EVENT. ORGNL DISC: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM. THE HIGH WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF HOULTON AND ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE SOUTH OF HOULTON. A FEW READINGS AS LOW AS MINUS 20F CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SAINT JOHN AND AROOSTOOK RIVER VALLEYS. ALONG THE COAST...EXPECT LOWS NEAR 5 TO 10 BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AFTER MIDNIGHT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER MARINE AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MARINE AIR WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE NEAR 20F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND REACH THE LOW 30S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST ZONES. INCREASING SOUTH WINDS DURING THURSDAY WILL REACH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COULD CREATE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ICE-COATED POWER LINES. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES DURING THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A STEADIER AND HEAVIER SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES FOR BANGOR AND BREWER BY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON A GFS/ECMWF BLEND AS THE NAM HAS BEEN SLOWER AND INCONSISTENT. THE WARMER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME INSTABILITY THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE COAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS IN THE LOWER THOUSAND FEET. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY DOWNEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WILL OCCUR ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DOWNEAST MAINE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DOWNEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AN INCH. A SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING LATE. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT THEN CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST AREAS LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW SATURDAY WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THE GFS AND ECMWF...OVER SRN GEORGIA CMC. THE RIDGE OF WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS THE DEEPENING LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MAINE. ALL THREE MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW UP THE EAST COAST. WITH THE GFS IN THE COMPROMISE POSITION. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ALONG THE COAST OF NJ SUN EVNG...THE GFS ABOUT 100 MILES OFF SHORE...THE CMC ABOUT 200 MILES OFF SHORE. THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THE CMC AND GFS MOVES THE LOW WELL EAST OF MAINE WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO SW NOVA SCOTIA BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW TO ERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER UNTIL WED MRNG. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE WED MRNG...REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF OF MAINE WED EVNG...AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY THURS MRNG. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AS ANOTHER LOW SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE DIURNAL TOOL TO SMOOTH HRLYS. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO BHB AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...REACHING CAR AND FVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. VIS AND CEILINGS MAY DIP INTO IFR TERRITORY FOR BGR AND BHB THURSDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AS SNOW INCREASES AGAIN. VIS MAY BECOME IFR AT TIMES NORTH OF HUL BY LATE MORNING IN SNOW. SHORT TERM: MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SCA MAY BE NECESSARY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT CREATES TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ISSUE AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-029-030-032. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS  FXUS61 KCAR 041451 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 951 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 940 AM UPDATE: WITH PAST OVRNGT LOWS NOT AS COLD AS PREV THOUGHT YSTDY ATTM...TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED FASTER BY 9 AM BASED ON LATEST OBS THEN OUR CURRENT FCST. BASED ON THIS TREND...WE BUMPED UP FCST HI TEMPS A FEW DEG F ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...WE MADE MINOR CHGS TO FCST CLD CVR FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING LEADING INTO THE AFTN. 620 AM UPDATE: MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY CONDITIONS TO DROP PERCENTAGES SOME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE BORDER. MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED BELOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES NEEDED ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT UPWARD AS A LIGHT SW WIND IN THE BLYR AND THOSE CLOUDS KEPT GET TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH FROM BOTTOMING OUT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS. ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS BRINGING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST SATL IR IMAGERY AND THE GOES-E CLOUD THICKNESS SCAN. THESE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FCST. FURTHER S AND E, LESS CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT BELOW ZERO AS OF 07Z. A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FCST TO PASS WELL S OF THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTURE THROUGH 500MBS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION W/THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH EXPECTED. THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH COULD TRIGGER A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND DECIDED TO CARRY 20% TO COVER THIS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHILE MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUDS AND HOW LONG THEY HANG ON. ATTM, DECIDED TO CLEAR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OUT BY MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM WESTERN QUEBEC. CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL HANG ON A WHILE LONGER ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND THE COAST THROUGH 06Z. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BE OFFSHORE AFTER 06Z W/SKIES BECOMING AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING 15 TO 20 BELOW AND SOME OF THE VALLEY AREAS HITTING 25 BELOW. ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND DOWNEAST, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK SHARPLY AFTER 06Z BUT A TAD WARMER THAN THIS MORNING'S TEMPERATURES W/READINGS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CONTINUED DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER. LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DURING WEDNESDAY IT WILL REMAIN DRY BUT DOWNEAST SECTIONS MAY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. AS THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY THE COLDER VALLEYS OF THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE BUILDING HIGH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FINALLY SOME RELIEF FROM THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S DOWNEAST WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. MORE COLD BUT DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD BE SEEN AT KBHB AS WELL W/LIGHT SNOW. SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 940 AM UPDATE...WE TOOK DOWN THE FZSPY ADV FOR THIS MORN WITH THE ADVENT OF DIMINISHING WINDS AND RISING AIR TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTN. NO OTHER CHGS MADE ATTM. ORGNL DISC...LATEST OBS SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 KTS W/GUSTS TO 20 KTS. WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF LATER THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KTS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. SEAS OF 3-4 FT ATTM WILL DROP BACK TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL LET THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY RIDE THROUGH 15Z. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...VJN/DUDA MARINE...VJN/DUDA  FXUS61 KCAR 120918 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 518 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOT MUCH CHG IN THE XPCTD EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING STORM EVENT... INCLUDING THE TMG OF MIXED PRECIP OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION TNGT. POPS WERE RAMPED UP FASTER WITH THE OVRSPRDNG OF THE SN SHIELD THIS AFTN USING NOW TERM POP FROM QPF TOOL. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO 6 HRLY QPF FCSTS THIS AFTN AND TNGT AND CORRESPONDING SNFL GRIDS. ONE SIG CHG WAS TO LOWER SNFL AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT OVR DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE REGION AS A TRADE OFF TO A LITTLE MORE ICE ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...THE MAX AXIS OF TOTAL SNOWFALL BY THU EVE JUST N OF ANY TRANSITIONAL PRECIP WILL XTND FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO JUST N OF HOULTON WHERE LOCALLY NEAR 2 FT OF SNFL IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MOST IN THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE 15 TO 21 INCHES. TOTAL SNFL WILL SLOWLY DECLINE N OF THIS LN TO ABOUT 10 INCHES ACROSS THE XTRM NW. FOR NOW...WE HAVE HELD OFF BLENDING A LARGE PTN OF THE ECMWF QPF AND IMPLIED HEAVIER SNFL SPCLY FOR THU MORN ACROSS THE NRN PTN OF THE FA... SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS THIS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEFORMATION SNFL ATTM...RESULTING IN STORM TOTAL SNFLS UP TO 10 INCHES GREATER OVR THE N HLF OF THE FA THEN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE. TWO REASONS FOR THIS THAT THE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SIG WARMER IN TS LOW AND MID LVLS OVR THE SRN PTN OF THE FA AND ADJACENT GULF OF ME TNGT THAN THE OTHER MODELS...IMPLYING IF IT WERE CORRECT...LESS THAN WARNING CRITERIA TOTAL SNFL OVR DOWNEAST MAINE. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TRACK OF THE SFC LOW TOWARD WRN NOVA SCOTIA AND THE FACT THAT THE CIPS ANALOGS HAVE SHOWN THE GRADIENT OF SNFL FURTHER S OVR DOWNEAST ME THAN THE ECMWF...MAKES THE CURRENT ECMWF SOLUTION A LITTLE OVERZEALOUS WITH ITS SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS ATTM. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATE TNGT...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SN SPCLY OVR CNTRL AND NRN PTNS OF THE FA MAINTAINING ALL SN. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... INTENSE 975MB LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY MORNING. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING IN COASTAL WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH...BUT WILL NOT INCREASE THE RATIOS TOO MUCH DUE TO STRONG WINDS IN LOW LEVELS. EXPECT BANDED SNOW TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING WITH TWO TO THREE ADDITIONAL INCHES. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES IN THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN SNOW AMOUNTS DURING THURSDAY WILL BE GREATER THAN MODEL QPFS WOULD SUGGEST. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL ADD TO SNOW REMOVAL CHALLENGES. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. SNOW WILL END IN THE EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE STORM RACES TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. VERY COLD AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE STORM WITH LOWS ZERO TO TEN BELOW IN NORTHERN ZONES AND ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH OVERRUNNING SNOW BEGINNING IN WESTERN ZONES BY LATE DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA AFTER THE OVERRUNNING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN GENERALLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND A COLD UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC AND WHETHER ANY PHASES WITH A LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WHERE THE COLDER AIR DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SUNDAY AND THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE COLD AIR BEING IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A CHANCE OF MORE OVERRUNNING SNOW WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: ALL SITES VFR THIS MORN...THEN CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE TAF SITES MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ALL SITES LIFR TO VLIFR IN FALLING AND BLOWING SN TNGT...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RN AT TMS OVR DOWNEAST ME. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR IN SNOW THURSDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. BECOMING VFR THURSDAY EVENING AT ALL SITES. VFR CONTINUES FRIDAY. IFR RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM HUL NORTHWARD. EXPECT IFR CIGS ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR FROM HUL AND MLT NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON. IFR CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT CONDITIONS TO VFR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: CONTD GLW FOR ALL WATERS...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE E AND NE THIS AFTN AND EVE...REACHING GALE FORCE BY LATE. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED IN A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES BEGINNING THIS AFTN AND CONTG THRU TNGT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HTS THIS UPDATE. SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY THURSDAY AND HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE ANOTHER 6 HOURS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GALE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN SCA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SCA IS FORECAST FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>003-005-006. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ004-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW  FXUS61 KCAR 130814 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 414 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MOST SIG CHC WAS TO DOWNGRADE THE WNTR STM WRNGS ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST TO WNTR WX ADVS. THE REASON IS THAT MSLY RN FELL OVR THIS AREA...WITH ANY SNFL FROM LAST NGT RELEGATED NEAR THE ZONE 16 AND 17 BORDERS. TEMPS...HOWEVER...HAVE RECENTLY FALLEN BLO FZG...AND WITH INTERMITTENT PRECIP XPCTD INTO THE AFTN... INITIALLY AS LGT FZRA/SLEET THRU ERLY THIS MORN...THAN AS LGT SN...SO IMPACTS WILL BE LOW. ELSEWHERE WRNGS CONT...WITH MSLY ALL SN FALLING WITH GUSTY NE TO N WINDS...IMPACTS REMAIN HIGH WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING AS WELL AS FALLING SN...SO NO PLANS ATTM TO DROP ANY OTHER WRNGS ATTM. ALSO...NO UPDATES TO STORM TOTAL SNFLS FROM THE PREV UPDATE ATTM. OTHERWISE...SN SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND CVRG ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTN...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE THIS EVE SCT SN SHWRS AND PATCHY BLSN...THEN PARTIAL CLRG AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE TNGT AS THE LOW CONTS TO MOVE E THRU THE MARITIMES AND A RIDGE OF HI PRES APCHS FROM QB. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FOR FRIDAY MORNING...THE NW FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. SKIES SHOULD START GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOW 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY AND PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO GENERATE IN NORTHERN ZONES LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND MID 20S DOWN EAST. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. THE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...BUT STILL FAR BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THERE'S CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ON ONE HAND...IT MAY TURN OUT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SNOW. IF THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT FURTHER WEST ON WEDNESDAY...THE AREA COULD SEE A SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP WITH RAIN. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR ALL TAF SITES TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ATTMS...SPCLY NRN TAF SITES...WILL CONT THRU TDY IMPROVING TO MVFR ALL SITES BY LATE THU EVE AND THEN TO VFR LATE THU NGT. SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY. IFR FRIDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. IFR EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO CIGS...IMPROVING TO MVFR NORTH AND VFR FOR BGR AND BHB. CONTINUED MVFR TEMPO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING NORTH OF HUL. VFR FOR BGR AND BHB FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERN SITES WILL BE MOSTLY VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE GLW TDY INTO TNGT FOR NE WINDS BECOMING NW AS THE LOW TRACKS JUST S OF THE WATERS INTO THE MARITIMES. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV HT GUIDANCE. SHORT TERM: SCA IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SCA IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029- 030. MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...MCW AVIATION...VJN/MCW MARINE...VJN/MCW  FXUS61 KCAR 292353 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 753 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST... SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 725 PM UPDATE: IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO OVRNGT CLD CVR AND FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND 6 TO 7 PM OBSVD TEMPS. THEN SOME MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO 6 HRLY SNFLS SPCLY SUN INTO SUN EVE...SO ACCUMULATIONS REALISTICALLY MATCHED FCST PRECIP TYPES. THE ONLY SIG CHG WAS A LOWERING OF SN/PL TOTALS IN THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST WNTR WX ADV AREA AND A NEAR ELIMINATION OF SN/PL ACCUMULATION MENTION ALG THE IMMEDIATE DOWNEAST COAST...WHERE PREDOMINATELY NEARLY ALL RN IS FCST FOR THIS EVENT. ORGNL DISC: AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MAJOR MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE NC/VA BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTH TO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. THE MODEL INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS STILL DYNAMIC AT THIS POINT...BUT SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STARTING TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SURFACE LOW...THE BEGINNING PROCESS OF BECOME COLD CORE. BY MRNG THE LOW MOVES NE TO THE NJ COAST...PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS ERN MAINE INTO NRN MAINE. PCPN WILL BE SNOW...WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND EAST CNTRL MAINE. AT THIS TIME ALL MODELS SHOWING A CLOSED LOW AT 500MB AND THE SFC LOW NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE PCPN MOVES EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...THE LOW DRIFTS NORTH ALONG THE NJ COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED. THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF SHOW A NEW LOW IN THE ERN GULF OF MAINE THAT WILL BECOME THE NEW PRIMARY LOW FOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK. LOADED THE HRRR MIN TEMP FOR THE OVRNGT...GEM MAX TEMP FOR TOMORROW. INTERPOLATED FROM MIN TO MAX FOR HRLY TEMPS. USED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR HRLY DP/SKY/WND/POP. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OVERRUNNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HAVE BASED THE FORECAST ON A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE FRONT REMAINING CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH WILL KEEP MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP A WINTRY MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE HELD WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EXPECT EXPECT A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...WITH A WINTRY MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTH WITH DECREASING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COULD PERSIST DOWNEAST TUESDAY WITH THE EXITING LOW WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY/TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN BRINGING DRIER AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA CAN MAINTAIN THE DRY WEATHER. THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE FORECAST WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS WE HAVE HAD IN MARCH. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS BHB...ALL OTHER SITES VFR TO START THE PERIOD THIS EVENING. BY 9PM IFR CONDITIONS BHB IN RAIN...BGR RAIN BCMG MXD. IFR CONDITIONS MOVE INTO HUL...PQI...CAR...FVE AFT 3AM...PCPN SNOW BCMG MXD AT HUL TOMORROW AFTN. IFR CONDITION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. PCPN TYPE SN FOR FVE...SN MAY MIX WITH PL BRIEFLY IN AFTN IN PQI AND CAR. SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER MONDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE LOW WILL TRANSIT SLOWLY SOUTH OF OF THE GULF OF MAINE. TODAYS TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. WINDS STILL CALL FOR MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS FOR TOMORROW. WILL CONTINUE THE GALE WATCH. SHORT TERM: MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD REQUIRE GALE WARNINGS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR DOWNEAST MAINE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING STORM WILL LIKELY FALL MAINLY AS RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION TO THIS RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY ADDING SNOWMELT TO THE EQUATION. THE SNOWPACK IN THESE AREAS IS HIGHLY VARIABLE, RANGING FROM AROUND 6 INCHES ALONG THE COAST TO 2 FEET OR MORE IN THE INTERIOR. THERE IS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER CONTAINED IN THE PACK ALONG THE COAST WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES FURTHER INLAND. WHILE THE DEEPER SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB SOME OF THE RAIN...MUCH OF IT WILL BECOME RUNOFF IN ADDITION TO THE SNOWMELT. THIS MEANS DOWNEAST AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY SEE 4 INCHES OR MORE OF TOTAL RUNOFF. RIVERS WILL LIKELY RISE SUBSTANTIALLY AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE PLACES WHERE THE ICE COMPLETELY FLUSHED OUT IN JANUARY (MEANING THE ICE THERE NOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK). FOR THOSE RIVER STRETCHES THAT ARE ICE FREE...ICE COVER UPSTREAM MAY BREAK UP AND COLLECT DOWNSTREAM. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS, THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION, TIDAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS BANGOR WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST FOR THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT BANGOR BRINGS THE GAGE WITHIN 1 FOOT OF FLOOD STAGE WITH HIGH TIDE SUNDAY MORNING. PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG WATERWAYS OR IN FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS ACROSS HANCOCK...WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ003>006-010. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ011-015>017-031-032. FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...NORTON/VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...NORTON/VJN/NORCROSS MARINE...NORTON/VJN/NORCROSS HYDROLOGY...NORTON  FXUS61 KCAR 040519 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 119 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 120 AM UPDATE: FOLLOWING THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE STRATUS FURTHER N AND E AND INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AS WELL. THE 03 SREF COMING IN HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS AND FOG. LAPS SOUNDINGS AIDED BY THE 03Z RAP SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE IN THE DOWNEAST AND COAST UP INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING AND CARRIED THAT WORDING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH UP W/THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ON WED...ANY SHWRS ACROSS THE FAR W WILL TAKE THEIR TIME TRAVERSING INTO CNTRL AND ERN PTNS OF THE FA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF BLOCKING IN THE N ATLC. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME DISSIPATION OF LOW CLDNSS... SPCLY NRN AND INLAND PTNS OF THE E PTN OF THE FA...WITH SOME MIDDAY FILTERED SUNSHINE POSSIBLE BEFORE SHWRS ADVC ON TOWARD THE ERN ME/NB BORDER BY WED EVE. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FILTERED SUN... WE DID RAISE HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEG OVR THE NE. QPF AMOUNTS WED AND SPCLY WED AFTN WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CNVCTN ACCOMPANIES THE COLD FRONTAL SHWR BAND...BUT MOST MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH AT ALL IN THE WAY OF AFTN FCST CAPE...SO WE LEFT THUNDER OUT FOR WED FOR NOW. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A DIEING FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT FALLS APART OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. INTERESTING SETUP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MOST MODELS DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND TRACK IT TO ROUGHLY NOVA SCOTIA EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE LOW. IF THE LOW TRACKS TO THE BAY OF FUNDY, THE WHOLE AREA COULD GET QUITE THE SOAKER, BUT IF IT TRACKS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, DOWNEAST WOULD GET THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWERS UP NORTH. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE APPROACH, NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, WHICH ENTAILS LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THINGS DRY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS SLOWLY DEPART THE FORECAST AREA AND A WELL- DEFINED...ALBEIT SHORT-LIVED...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BUT BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD AND SUNDAY PANS OUT TO BE SUNNY...WARM...AND DRY. MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN AS A REPEAT OF SUNDAY BUT THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROF BEGIN TO ENCROACH AND PUSH THE RIDGE EAST WITH SHOWERS...POSSIBLE TS...MOVING IN BY MID-DAY. TEMPS WILL BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT DURING RAIN EVENTS BUT OTHERWISE THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AND THEN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR. IFR ALREADY DOWN ACROSS KBGR KBHB. SOME RECOVERY TO AT LEAST MVFR CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING TIL ERLY AFTN. SHORT TERM: MVFR LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF IFR FOR DOWNEAST. IFR EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED WITH FCST WINDS AND WV HTS XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA TNGT AND WED. WE USED A BLEND OF RAW MODEL AND MODEL-MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS...AND WENT A LITTLE BLO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS. SHORT TERM: EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD FROM AROUND 4 FEET ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 6 FEET ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. KEPT WINDS JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FOR NOW, BUT THESE WINDS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT  FXUS61 KCAR 040821 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 421 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SWING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF STRATUS AND DRIZZLE. THE 07Z SATELLITE IMAGERY FORM THE GOES-E IFR PROBABILITY SHOWED STRATUS SPREADING TO THE NORTH W/HUL TO KBHB SEEING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE COAST HAD SOME FOG AS WELL. THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP AND NAM THIS MORNING PER THE SOUNDINGS. THE SREF WAS A BIT SLOW ON THE DRAW W/BRINGING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE INTO NE MAINE THIS MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEDGE OF DRY AIR RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE W/BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY W/SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS AS EVIDENT FROM THE OBS AND SATELLITE. THE RAP ALONG W/THE NAM DOES SUPPORT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON W/THE WESTERN AREAS SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES E. THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWED THE RAINFALL SHRINKING UP AS IT RUNS INTO THE DRIER AIR FURTHER TO THE E AND THIS IS SHOWN WELL ON THE SATELLITE WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, DECISION HERE WAS TO BACK UP THE TIMING OF SHOWERS TIL THE AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE W AND SW AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE THE LAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP. AN AREA OF STEADIER RAIN/SHOWERS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS A TROF AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SWING ACROSS THE REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO BRING 60% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED FOG FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND THE COAST W/A CONTINUED SSE FLOW IN THE LLVLS. DECIDED TO PUSH BACK ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS(QPF) BASED ON THE LATEST 6HRLY REPORTS SHOWING LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING. THEREFORE, QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE AVERAGE OF 0.5 TO .25" AREAL WIDE W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE W AND NW. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE FRIDAY. FOR POPS WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...SREF AND ECMWF. THE WIND GRIDS GENERATED FROM THE MOSG25. HAVE USED THE SUPPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. QPF FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY THEN MOVE EAST LATE IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT PASSING TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY. WILL USE THE SUPPER BLEND TO POPULATE ALL GRIDS. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR TO SPREAD ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING W/DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH CIGS WILL DROP BACK TO IFR TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS W/THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THIS TAKING SHAPE FROM KHUL SOUTHWARD INTO KBGR AND KBHB. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS W/A 10-11 SECOND PERIOD. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW'S FORECAST OF 2-4 FOOT SWELLS AND WINDS SPEEDS NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THE MARINERS THROUGH TONIGHT. VBSYS ARE ALREADY 1NM OR LESS AND SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TO CHANGE TOO MUCH GIVEN THE LATEST SETUP W/A SSE FLOW. SHORT TERM: WILL USE THE SREF FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPPER BLEND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR WAVES: EXPECT EASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVES TO PREDOMINATE THURSDAY. A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE MARITIMES. LONG PERIOD WAVES FROM THIS FETCH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO MAXIMUM OF 6 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE SYSTEM WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 3 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE SWAN/NAM INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE WNA/4. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...MIGNONE LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE  FXUS61 KCAR 270821 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 421 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE FOCUS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREATS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. READ ON FOR DETAILS... A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY WARM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE; HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH SUN WE CAN GET TODAY, AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SBCAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 500-1200 J/KG RANGE FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE WEST. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCREASING 0-6 KM SHEAR TO 25-30 KT BY 00Z TONIGHT. WHILE THIS IS MODEST, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. WITH PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES AND WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS AOA 10 KFT, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WHILE HAIL CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL GREATLY REDUCES ITS CHANCES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOULTON TO DOVER-FOXCROFT LINE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING DUE TO SOUTH FLOW OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND INSTABILITY LESSENS. IT'LL BE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A S/WV MOVG E FROM SRN QB PROV LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THU AFTN ACROSS THE N TO THU EVE DOWNEAST. THIS TMG WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS...MSLY OVR NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE FCST MAX AFTN SFC BASE CAPES COULD APCH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RNFL AND GUSTY STRONG WINDS...AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER FZLS THUS AFTN/ERLY EVE THAN THIS AFTN...A MENTION OF HAIL. IF TSTMS DID BECOME SVR...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD BE WINDS FROM BOWING LN SEGMENTS...BASED ON THE GREATEST RATIO BEING 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WINDS COMPARED TO THE TOTAL IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR THU AFTN INDICATES MARGINAL ATTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE RAISED TO SLGT CHC WHEN THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER TO REAL TM. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY LATE THU NGT WITH COOLER OVRNGT LOWS ACCOMPANYING LOWER DWPT...THEN FAIR...MSLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS CONT AS THE SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVG N OF THE ST JOHN RVR FRI NGT...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILDER UNDER FAIR SKIES AND A SW BREEZE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SAT LOOKS TO BE A MSLY TO PTLY SUNNY DAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND IN PARTICULAR...THE NW BROAD RVR VLYS BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF FCST AFTN MAX 925MB TEMPS XTNDG FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NW VT INTO NW ME ON A 200 TO 210 DEG SFC WIND DIRECTION. FOR THIS PD ONLY...WE BLENDED THE 00Z WMODEL HI TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARMEST HI TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER 80S OVR NW ME RVR VLYS MATCHING THE FCST ORIENTATION OF THE CORRIDOR OF MAX 925MB TEMPS. WITH SSW WINDS... HI TEMPS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...SPCLY THE COAST WILL BE COOLER. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS APCHG NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM QB PROV LATE SAT AFTN. ACTUALLY...THIS IS COMPROMISE TMG BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND THE 3 TO 6 HR SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONT ARRIVING ERLY ENOUGH TO UTILIZE MAX HTG AND INSTABILITY DURG THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WE DO NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED AFTN/EVE TSTM WORDING THIS UPDATE. IN FACT...IF THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MOST OF THE RNFL WOULD BE STABLE POST FRONTAL SHWRS/ STRATIFORM RNFL AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY XTNDED SVR OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM ATTM. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SWRD INTO THE FA FIRST THRU NRN ME BY ERLY SUN MORN...THEN CONTG TO OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTN. AFT MUCH COOLER HI TEMPS SUN AFTN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...SUN NGT WILL BE A RELATIVELY CHILLY NGT. MON SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH SUNNIEST SKIES ACROSS THE N...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING CLDS AND SHWRS LINGERING OVR THE GULF OF ME WITH A FOLLOW-UP S/WV MOVG E OFF THE MID NEW COAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW TUE TO CONT FAIR ATTM WITH SOME REBOUND IN HI TEMPS. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT KBHB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBGR FROM 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. FROM 12Z WED TO 03Z THU, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN TSTMS AND HEAVIER SHWRS THU AFTN AND LATE SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT AND ANY PATCHY MORN FOG OVR DOWNEAST SITES THU MORN...WHEN MVFR OF IFR CLGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM:THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WAVES AROUND 5 FT, WITH SEAS ACTUALLY BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE COLD OCEAN WATERS, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MARGINAL SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS WILL LIKELY CONT AT LEAST THRU THU...BUT THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SINCE STABLE SFC-500 M LAPSE RATES COULD REDUCE SFC WINDS ENOUGH TO KEEP WV HTS BLO 5 FT. WV HTS SHOULD DIMINISH THU NGT INTO FRI...BEFORE SLOWLY BUILDING AGAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT TO POSSIBLE SCA WV HTS AGAIN MSLY OVR OUTER MZS. WENT WITH ONLY ABOUT 80 TO 85 PERCENT OF FCST WW3 WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST DUE TO THE SEASONAL HIGH WIND BIAS OF THE GFS...AND EVEN THESE RESULTANT WV HTS MAY BE GENEROUS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HASTINGS SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM...VJN AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN  FXUS61 KCAR 271728 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 128 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OFF JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THIS RIDGE WILL BRING A WARM AND HUMID FLOW OF AIR TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 110 PM UPDATE...UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO BOOST THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE AREAS OF FOCUS APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. SPC MESO-ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWED THINGS DESTABILIZING ACROSS NYS AND NORTHERN VT WHERE A SVR TSTM WATCH IS IN PLACE. A NOSE OF MUCAPES OF 700-1000 JOULES NOSES UP FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION INTO SWRN MAINE. VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE W/CU POPPING IN A LINE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. NICE NOSE OF HIGH THETA E AIR COINCIDES W/THE MUCAPES. NAM12 SOUNDINGS SHOWED POTENTIAL FOR SOME SVR TSTMS W/ROTATION THROUGH 7K FT IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM STRUCTURE ATTM LOOKS TO BE A LINE SEGMENT W/A FEW BOW ECHOES IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. 0-6KM SHEAR RIGHT AROUND 30 KTS W/A STORM MOTION OF 250 DEGREES. STRONG WIND GUSTS STILL THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT W/FAST MOVEMENT, DURATION LOOKS TO BE LESSENED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PWATS OF 1.75+ INCHES AND WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS AOA 10 KFT, HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. WHILE HAIL CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL GREATLY REDUCES ITS CHANCES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL GENERALLY LIE ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOULTON TO DOVER-FOXCROFT LINE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA, SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING DUE TO SOUTH FLOW OFF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND INSTABILITY LESSENS. IT'LL BE ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A S/WV MOVG E FROM SRN QB PROV LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THU AFTN ACROSS THE N TO THU EVE DOWNEAST. THIS TMG WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS...MSLY OVR NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WHERE FCST MAX AFTN SFC BASE CAPES COULD APCH 1000-1500 J/KG WITH UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. WE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HVY RNFL AND GUSTY STRONG WINDS...AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER FZLS THUS AFTN/ERLY EVE THAN THIS AFTN...A MENTION OF HAIL. IF TSTMS DID BECOME SVR...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD BE WINDS FROM BOWING LN SEGMENTS...BASED ON THE GREATEST RATIO BEING 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WINDS COMPARED TO THE TOTAL IN THE 0-6KM LAYER. THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR THU AFTN INDICATES MARGINAL ATTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE RAISED TO SLGT CHC WHEN THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER TO REAL TM. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY BY LATE THU NGT WITH COOLER OVRNGT LOWS ACCOMPANYING LOWER DWPT...THEN FAIR...MSLY SUNNY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS ON FRI WITH ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS CONT AS THE SFC HI PRES CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVG N OF THE ST JOHN RVR FRI NGT...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILDER UNDER FAIR SKIES AND A SW BREEZE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SAT LOOKS TO BE A MSLY TO PTLY SUNNY DAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY...SPCLY ACROSS THE N AND IN PARTICULAR...THE NW BROAD RVR VLYS BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF FCST AFTN MAX 925MB TEMPS XTNDG FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VLY OF NW VT INTO NW ME ON A 200 TO 210 DEG SFC WIND DIRECTION. FOR THIS PD ONLY...WE BLENDED THE 00Z WMODEL HI TEMP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS ONLY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE WARMEST HI TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER 80S OVR NW ME RVR VLYS MATCHING THE FCST ORIENTATION OF THE CORRIDOR OF MAX 925MB TEMPS. WITH SSW WINDS... HI TEMPS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...SPCLY THE COAST WILL BE COOLER. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATE MAY STANDARDS APCHG NW PTNS OF THE FA FROM QB PROV LATE SAT AFTN. ACTUALLY...THIS IS COMPROMISE TMG BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND THE 3 TO 6 HR SLOWER ECMWF. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONT ARRIVING ERLY ENOUGH TO UTILIZE MAX HTG AND INSTABILITY DURG THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WE DO NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED AFTN/EVE TSTM WORDING THIS UPDATE. IN FACT...IF THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT...MOST OF THE RNFL WOULD BE STABLE POST FRONTAL SHWRS/ STRATIFORM RNFL AND SPC DOES NOT HAVE ANY XTNDED SVR OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM ATTM. BEHIND THIS FRONT...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SWRD INTO THE FA FIRST THRU NRN ME BY ERLY SUN MORN...THEN CONTG TO OFF THE COAST BY MID TO LATE AFTN. AFT MUCH COOLER HI TEMPS SUN AFTN...SPCLY ACROSS THE N...SUN NGT WILL BE A RELATIVELY CHILLY NGT. MON SHOULD BE FAIR...WITH SUNNIEST SKIES ACROSS THE N...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING CLDS AND SHWRS LINGERING OVR THE GULF OF ME WITH A FOLLOW-UP S/WV MOVG E OFF THE MID NEW COAST. BOTH MODELS SHOW TUE TO CONT FAIR ATTM WITH SOME REBOUND IN HI TEMPS. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT KBHB AND PERHAPS EVEN KBGR FROM 06Z-12Z WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. FROM 12Z WED TO 03Z THU, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR. SHORT TERM: VFR XPCTD ALL TAF SITES XCPT IN TSTMS AND HEAVIER SHWRS THU AFTN AND LATE SAT AFTN INTO SAT NGT AND ANY PATCHY MORN FOG OVR DOWNEAST SITES THU MORN...WHEN MVFR OF IFR CLGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM:THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WAVES AROUND 5 FT, WITH SEAS ACTUALLY BUILDING TO AROUND 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE COLD OCEAN WATERS, BUT AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KT CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT TO LONG TERM: MARGINAL SCA SEAS OVR OUTER MZS WILL LIKELY CONT AT LEAST THRU THU...BUT THIS IS NOT A CERTAINTY...SINCE STABLE SFC-500 M LAPSE RATES COULD REDUCE SFC WINDS ENOUGH TO KEEP WV HTS BLO 5 FT. WV HTS SHOULD DIMINISH THU NGT INTO FRI...BEFORE SLOWLY BUILDING AGAIN FRI NGT INTO SAT TO POSSIBLE SCA WV HTS AGAIN MSLY OVR OUTER MZS. WENT WITH ONLY ABOUT 80 TO 85 PERCENT OF FCST WW3 WV HTS FOR THESE PTNS OF THE FCST DUE TO THE SEASONAL HIGH WIND BIAS OF THE GFS...AND EVEN THESE RESULTANT WV HTS MAY BE GENEROUS. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT  FXUS61 KCAR 190704 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 304 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED FOR FATHER'S DAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD TO THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN MOST AREAS BY 8 AM...BUT MAY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE MORNING IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. ONCE THE SHOWERS END THERE WILL BE RAPID CLEARING WITH THE SKY BECOMING SUNNY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU IN SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVELS BELOW 800H WILL BE WELL MIXED AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES. HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND IT WILL BE CLEAR AND COOL WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. AS THE WIND DECOUPLES RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING. THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS SUCH AS ESTCOURT STATION AND BIG BLACK RIVER MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING...AND LOWERED TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE. LIKELY EVEN IN THE COLDEST SPOTS THERE WILL BE LITTLE FROST FORMATION DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPS AND SHORT NIGHTS. LOW TO MID 40S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON SATURDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THINGS CHANGE FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE REGION. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH BILL'S REMNANTS, WITH PWATS PROGGED TO REACH UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES. GIVEN THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-12 KFT, EXPECT THAT THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING, MOSTLY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES, SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL BE MINIMAL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL CAN'T AGREE ON ANY OF THE PERTINENT DETAILS WITH THESE SYSTEMS, SUCH AS TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTH. THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: AREAS WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD FORM AND AFFECT KPQI AND KHUL TOWARD DAYBREAK. SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST 12Z-18Z SUNDAY AS RAIN SPREADS OVER THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE LIKELY AT KHUL, KBGR, AND KBHB 18Z SUN THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...HASTINGS LONG TERM...HASTINGS AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS MARINE...CB/HASTINGS  FXUS61 KCAR 050803 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 403 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MONDAY...WITH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY. NOT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS. LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION W/SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. LAST RADAR LOOP DID SHOW SOME RETURNS ACROSS WNW AREAS W/25DBZS AT BEST. ANY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC W/SOME WARMING BEHIND THE FRONT INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH. THIS FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING AND THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE LIMITED TO 850-800MB LAYER AND DRY ALOFT. THE RAP WAS MORE UNSTABLE AND HAD MORE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. THIS LOOKED TO BE OVERDONE. ATMOSPHERE DOES DESTABILIZE IN PART DUE TO A COOL POCKET ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES SOME, ESPECIALLY AT 700-500MBS(6.5C/KM). 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK(15 KTS). SB/MU CAPES ARE MODEST W/500-1000 JOULES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS TOTAL TOTALS HIT 50+ AND SHOWALTER INDEX GOES TO -1 W/PWATS AROUND 1.00 INCH. SO, THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THERE. THE QUESTION IS HOW ORGANIZED AND CAN IT GET GOING? LLVL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AS WELL. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL ALONG W/THE WRF SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED ACTIVITY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR A TSTM, BUT CLOUD DEPTH IS IN QUESTION. ATTM, DECIDED TO STAY W/SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TODAY BUT LEAVE ANY ENHANCED WORDING(HAIL) OUT. THE DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS MORE TODAY. SPC HAS KEPT THE STATE OF MAINE IN A GENERAL RISK TODAY. THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TONIGHT W/CLEARING EXPECTED. IT WILL BE MILDER W/OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AS MORE HUMIDITY STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S IN SOME AREAS. IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL ON THE MUGGY SIDE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT INTO TONIGHT FOR ALL TERMINALS. SHORT TERM: VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT DOWN TO MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: NO SCA HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING W/THE FROPA AVERAGING 10-15 KT AT BEST. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS. LOCAL WAVE MODEL SHOWS WAVE HEIGHTS 2-4 FT INTO TONIGHT OVER THE OUTER ZONES. ALONG THE INTRA-COASTAL ZONE, 1-2 FT. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...HEWITT LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/HEWITT MARINE...HEWITT/HEWITT  FXUS61 KCAR 182337 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 637 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will track out to sea tonight. An upper level disturbance approaching from Canada will cross the area late tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure will build into the region on Friday and remain across the area into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 600 PM Update: PoPs were adjusted to reach 100 percent across the Nrn hlf of the FA durg the late ngt to erly morn hrs based on our fcst 6hrly QPFs/SNFLs late tngt, suggesting a lgt, but imminent lgt snfl event, with the PoP from QPF near term tool used for this adjustment. Otherwise, minor adjustments to fcst hrly temps/dwpts thru the ovrngt based on late aftn/erly eve obsvd temps, with no chgs to fcst ovrngt lows attm. Orgnl Disc: The low which brought some light snow Downeast will slide out to sea well south of Nova Scotia tonight. A separate upper level wave will approach from the northwest tonight bringing a period of snow late tonight into early Thursday morning. The snow will be produced as a function of divergence aloft and some surface convergence ahead of the shortwave. Starting times will be around midnight over the north and a few hours after midnight Downeast. Snow will gradually taper off early Thursday morning. Amounts will range from around 3 inches north to an inch or less Downeast. The sky will remain mostly cloudy on Thursday with highs a few degrees above normal as high pressure builds in from the west. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The models are in good agreement through the period. A high pressure ridge builds into Maine from the west as an Upper level low over eastern Quebec continues to move away from the area. A low move through northern Quebec with a trough extending south to northern Maine early Saturday morning may product a few snowshowers across the crown of Maine Saturday morning, otherwise high pressure will dominate the weather through the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended models are in good general agreement at the start of the long term. A high pressure ridge over the area will begin to build to the east of the area as a low over Lake Superior and a low moving north along the Atlantic coast begin to put pressure on the western edge of the ridge. By Monday morning the frontal system associated with the lows will move into southwest Maine. By early Tuesday morning the warm front moves to Downeast Maine. By Tuesday morning the models start to diverge a bit, with the ECMWF moving the low to eastern Lake Huron and a secondary low over Portland, The GFS shows the low remaining over Virginia Beach. Both models show an occluded frontal boundary over Maine. Tuesday evening the GFS shows signs of secondary development over Portland, the ECMWF moves its low east to the Bay of Fundy. Both models continue to show the occluded frontal boundary over Maine. Wednesday morning both models show the main front east of Maine with northern Maine remaining in wrap around precipitation. The GFS builds a ridge in for the remainder of the period, while the ECMWF maintains the wrap around precipitation through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this evening will lower to IFR from north to south in snow late tonight. IFR conditions on Thursday will improve to MVFR around midday across the region as snow tapers off and some clouds remain. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions all all sites through the period. FVE and CAR may see a few snowshowers Saturday and again Sunday adding HUL to the chance snowshowers. These snowshowers will bring vsby and cigs down to lower MVFR, but these snowshowers should be brief and vsby and cigs will return to VFR quickly after the shower passes. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: An SCA will remain up early this evening for the offshore waters for wind gusts above 25 kt and seas over 5 ft. Winds and seas should diminish and subside overnight. SHORT TERM: High pressure will dominate the weather for the coastal waters, winds and seas below SCA criteria through through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...VJN/Norton Marine...VJN/Norton  FXUS61 KCAR 191516 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1116 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region today. A cold front will pass through state tonight into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1035 AM Update: PoPs were re-done this aftn into tngt based on fcst 6 hrly QPF, resulting in a slight delay of rnfl wording in the fcst compared to last update. Also, more in the way of dynamic cooling was played for with precip type ovrngt, meaning more all sn by late tngt across the N and E cntrl ptns of the FA. Fcst 6 hrly snfls were updated with most lctns across the N and E Cntrl areas now fcst to receive 1 to 2 inches, being somewhat trrn dependent. Otherwise, minor chgs to fcst hrly cld cvr, sc temps and dwpts going into the aftn hrs based on latest sat and sfc obs trends, with very little chg in fcst hi temps from last update. Orgnl Disc: Low pressure will approach from the west today as high pressure continues to move off to the east of the state. Precipitation is expected to spread across northern Maine from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as over-running takes place ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. The precipitation will be mostly in the form of rain late this afternoon and this evening but is expected to mix with and change to snow across the north late tonight. The precipitation will end mid morning as the low moves away. Have based the precipitation type on surface temperature. Have created snow ratio using the the snow ratio blender run on the NAM and using the Cobb Tool. Snow amounts based on snow ratio. Have used consensus raw for temperature. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Frontal occlusion wl be crossing the area at the start of the short term on Thur mrng. Most of the steady pcpn wl hv pushed off to the east by 12z with just sctd showers expected ahd of bndry. Expect rain showers for Downeast and a rain/snow mix north of Houlton with all snow showers up in the St. John Vly for a few hrs in the mrng. H9 temps warm drg the day on Thu resulting in warmer maxes than Wed. Next system wl begin impacting CWA late Thur night with H5 low diving into the Great Lakes by 12z Fri. Overrunning pcpn wl dvlp Fri mrng and continue thru the day. May see snow at onset acrs nrn zones Fri mrng but as bndry lyr quickly warms expect that rain wl be pre-dominant ovr most of the area by mid- mrng. Sfc low then fcst to re-develop nr the Cape Cod vicinity late Fri night. Model differences continue to abound on exactly where this coastal low wl dvlp, with majority of med range guidance indicating south of the Gulf of Maine sometime late Fri night yet latest GFS continues to indicate along the Downeast coast by 06z Sat. This closer soln gives much heavier qpf than rmndr of guidance with GFS some 2-3 times higher. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc ridge axis builds in bhnd departing system drg the latter half of the weekend. Expect a dry and warm day on Sunday with temps near normal and light winds. Another chc for pcpn wl mv in Sun night as cdfnt drops south out of Canada Sun night and sfc low heads up the ern Seaboard at the same time. It appears that the front wl bring the best chc for any pcpn as sfc low shoots out to sea tho cannot rule out an isold shower acrs coastal zones. Overall a lochc for pcpn anywhere acrs the CWA Sun night thru Mon. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/VFR today and IFR tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR expected Thur morning with restrictions improving to VFR in the afternoon. VFR Thur night all terminals before lowering to MVFR Fri morning with ocnl IFR through the day in lower cigs. IFR Fri night acrs northern terminals in -sn. Conditions will improve Sat aftn with VFR expected Sat night into Sun all terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained surface winds. For Waves: The Nearshore Wave Prediction System was used for wave grids. Current spectral observations from 44027 indicate that easterly wind wave continues to be the primary waves system. Longer period swell from the southerly fetch over the last few days continues to persist as a secondary wave group. The easterly wave group will subside later today as winds veer into the southeast and develop a new wave system later today into tonight. This new wave system will build to around 4 feet/5-6 seconds by later tonight and become the primary wave group. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain blo SCA levels through Fri morning before increasing ahead of next system. Serly swell will result in waves between 5-9 feet thru Sat morning as coastal low tracks in vicinity of the Gulf of Maine. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...VJN/Farrar Marine...VJN/Farrar  FXUS61 KCAR 220157 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 957 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Decaying low pressure in Quebec will slowly drift towards northern Maine while a new area of low pressure organizes south of Cape Cod tonight and intensifies south of the state on Saturday. The low will move south of Nova Scotia Saturday night and high pressure will build on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 935 PM Update: Precip has turned over to all sn a little faster then prev fcst, so we time shifted our fcst grids 1 hour forward and hand edited precip types slightly to shade to all sn a little faster and further S resulting in a 2 hour faster transition then the prev fcst. Fcst 6 hrly and stm total snfls were then updated to show a little more snfl over Nrn Penobscot and SE Aroostook counties. Otherwise, fcst ovrngt hrly temps were updated to reflect a faster drop in temps into mid eve based on latest obs, but no chg in fcst ovrngt lows attm, thinking that temps will not fall much more with evaporational/ dynamic cooling processes mostly used up across areas that have transitioned to sn attm. Orgnl Disc: The big concern for this evening is a vigorous shortwave trough rotating around the closed upper low in Quebec. It will affect areas north of the Katahdin region and Houlton this evening into the overnight hours. There's a lot of lift with this feature as evidenced by omega fields. There is some upper level instability and the LFQ of a strong upper jet will enter northern Maine later this evening. Although temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s in northern zones, evaporative and dynamic cooling of the column will generate a fairly quick changeover from rain to snow as the warm boundary layer is eliminated. There is good omega in a rather high dendritic layer later this evening and snowfall rates over an inch an hour are possible as the shortwave crosses. The fact that the heavier snow will be falling at night with these snowfall rates means roads may become slippery at times overnight. Overall snowfall of 3-5 inches in northern Aroostook County and the potential for slick roads led to the decision to issue a winter weather advisory for zones one and two. Snow will linger in northern zones Saturday morning as the remnants of the Quebec low become an inverted trough connected to the offshore low. Further accumulation after daybreak Saturday is not likely with lower snowfall rates and snow will gradually change to rain as the boundary layer warms again. The snow will mostly be a factor for areas north of Greenville to Millinocket and Hodgdon. South of this line, snow may mix with the rain at times late tonight, but no accumulation is expected as lows will be 34 to 37F. Rain will fall tonight into Saturday morning and gradually taper off Saturday afternoon. It will be a chilly day for the entire region with highs only reaching the upper 30s to near 40F. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As the short term starts at 00z Mon/8PM Sun, the last remnants of the system should be departing, with most likely areas of rain and/or snow along the eastern border and also in the northern/western high terrain. As the system moves away, weak high pressure bringing calming winds could allow for some fog across the area through Sun AM. At least patchy sunshine is expected across the entire CWA Sun PM, and it may become mostly sunny or clear south of the Katahdin and Moosehead region. Temps will be near seasonal norms on Sunday. A weak cold front then looks to approach from the NW Sun evening, and bring some showers to the Crown of Maine. Precip appears likely to start as rain showers, then taper to a mix or snow showers. But all models show the precip associated with his front drying up before sunrise Mon, with the sfc boundary making it to the Bangor metro by 15z Mon, and off the coast shortly thereafter. Some clouds are likely to linger behind the front on Mon. The earlier passage of the front will lead to a cooler day Mon up north. But for Bangor metro and Downeast, it appears likely to be just as warm if not warmer thanks to SW'ly winds ahead of the front, but the timing of the front will be key to highs on Mon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Medium range models are suggesting a moderating temperature trend by mid to late week with temperatures possibly rising to above normal levels late next week. But before that we will be dealing with the potential for some rain Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure develops along the southeast coast of the United States and then tracks northeast and weakens through Wednesday. This would bring the potential for some rain to the region, especially across downeast areas. There could be a few showers around on Thursday as an upper trough swings across. Drier weather will return on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Prevailing MVFR cigs will give way to LIFR vis in snow north of HUL and GNR later this evening. The snow will let up to IFR vis later in the night through Saturday morning. MVFR returns Saturday afternoon. For southern sites such as BGR and BHB, the trend will be towards IFR cigs later tonight in rain and drizzle. Once these cigs arrive, they will be very slow to depart on Saturday. SHORT TERM: MVFR to IFR conditions will be widespread Sat night as some low clouds are expected to persist, and areas of fog may develop in light winds. Clouds should break up and fog will dissipate Sun AM, allowing a return to VFR conditions, and remain clear thru Sun evening. Low to mid-level clouds and showers with a cold front may cause some MVFR to patchy IFR conditions for KHUL thru KFVE Sun night, while fog is possible for KBHB and KBGR ahead of the front Sun night and Mon AM. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 630 PM Update...we optd to go with an SCA for outer MZs050-051 for marginal wind gusts of 25 kt and wv hts upwards to 7 ft for a relatively narrow window between 4 and 11 am Sat morn. Orgnl Disc...There is a chance of SCA conditions ANZ051 from Schoodic Point to Stonington on Saturday morning as low pressure moves south of the waters. Confidence is higher in seas above 5 feet on Saturday than wind gusts over 25 kts. Will await 00Z guidance to get a better look and revisit the decision. SHORT TERM: Both winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA criteria levels Sat night thru Mon. The biggest risk to safe navigation offshore may be some dense fog possible Sun night into Mon AM ahead of a cold front. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ001- 002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Duda Aviation...VJN/Kredensor Marine...VJN/Kredensor  FXUS61 KCAR 182000 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 400 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Very humid airmass will remain across the region through Tuesday before a cold front begins to approach the region tomorrow afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with localized heavy rainfall Monday afternoon into Tuesday moring. Afternoon showers and more comfortable air are expected for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Humid airmass is firmly entrenched across the region with surface dewpoints into the upper 60s. Not much change expected along the coast with the warm airmass over cold water keeping the stratus and fog locked in. Sun broke for interior Maine this afternoon, question is weather the stratus deck comes back in tonight. Not expected that to happen across the interior highlands. Should remain dry tonight, except for the Northwoods where they could get a shower after midnight from a decaying cluster of thunderstorms in Quebec province. Monday still has the potential for a big weather day with the frontal boundary beginning to approach the area. Anomalous PWAT values will be firmly entrenched tomorrow, in addition to impressive warm cloud thickness, and unidirectional winds. This all leads to the potential of extremely high rainfall rates for interior Maine late tomorrow afternoon as the frontal boundary approaches. Still some spread in the evolution of the storms tomorrow, but if everything lines up correctly and we do get some good storms that train over the same region we could get some localized flash flooding. The highest threat is currently across the Central Highlands into Aroostook County, but we will see how things evolve tomorrow. A secondary threat is some severe wind gusts for the stronger cells, this all depends on how much sun we get tomorrow and if we can get well into the 80s or not. SPC still has interior Maine in a Slight risk tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect convection wl be ongoing at the start of the short term pd ahd of bndry. How far convection can mv into the CWA wl depend entirely on marine lyr and how far north it advances into the region on strong onshore srly flow. For the time being hv only included enhanced wording of gusty winds and small hail thru 02z Tue for northern Maine. Training cells along bndry wl hv the potentially to produce vry hvy rainfall thru a good portion of the ovrngt hrs. PW values progged to be btwn 2-4 standard deviations abv normal with PW values right arnd 1.90 inches. LLJ intensifies to btwn 40-50kts with majority of CWA being in the RRQ of H2 speed max. Upr lvl trof wl be digging into the area on Tue with srly flow contg to draw in moisture. Marginal instability along with weak lapse rates will be present, thus wl maintain chc/slgt chc thunder into Tue evng. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Vry brief s/wv ridge wl impact the CWA on Thur with only a slgt chc for showers expected. Next significant wv wl affect the region on Friday with chc for thunder in the aftn. Expect that H5 trof wl swing thru the state drg the weekend with chc for showers on Saturday bfr dropping off drg the latter half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR conditions will continue at KBHB over the next 24 hours due to fog and low cigs. IFR ceilings expected at KBGR with the onshore flow and low stratus continuing. Northern TAF sites have broken out, but most guidance has a low stratus deck developing again tonight. Confidence is currently low at this time, but KHUL is the most likely location for redevelopment. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions expected thru Mon night as +ra and tsra impacts all terminals. Conditions should improve to MVFR on Tue and eventually VFR Tue evening into the end of the week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Stable layer at the ocean surface isn't allowing for the strong sw winds to reach the water surface at this time. Guidance has been over forecasting winds for the last 24 hours, decided to lower winds based off current observations. Swell is still expected to move into tonight into tomorrow with waves getting up to 8 feet for the outer coastal waters and close to 5 near the immediate coast. SCA for hazardous seas has been issued. SHORT TERM: Very stable layer will exist over the waters through mid-week. This will prevent winds from mixing to the surface and also reduce visibilities in locally dense fog at times. Seas will remain above 5 feet on the outer waters in southerly swell. && .HYDROLOGY... The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. The area of greatest concern stretches from the Moosehead Lake region northeastward to central Aroostook County. These locations could see widespread rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, especially where storm training occurs. Hilly terrain and urban areas will be most susceptible to any flash flooding. Small streams could also exit their banks, but mainstem river flooding is not anticipated. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Dumont Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Dumont/Farrar Marine...Dumont/Farrar Hydrology...Hastings  FXUS61 KCAR 062106 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 406 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will begin to retreat into the maritimes as strong low pressure will approach from the southwest later Wednesday then slowly cross the region Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The model guidance is in good agreement through the near term period of the forecast. A high pressure ridge extends from the Canadian Maritimes through Maine into the North Atlantic along the Eastern Seaboard. A new low is forecasted to develop along the coast of Virginia by early morning tomorrow then this low will begin to track north and deepen rapidly. By tomorrow morning the low will move north to Northern Delmarva, and tomorrow afternoon to New Jersey. By the end of the period the low will move to Long Island with the affect extending north to Southwest Maine. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool add to winds 20% over land, 26% for the coastal waters. Used HPC Guidance for QPF. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Models have been actually very consistent with snfl and wind details for our Rgn with the next major low pres system advcg from the mid Atlc states. Enough fcstr confidence attm to convert prior wntr stm watches to wrngs and to issue wntr stm watches for all of Washington county and southeast Aroostook county. Storm total snfls for Nrn and NE Aroostook county thru 12z Fri, however, fall sig short of wntr stm wrng criteria even for the 24 hr window criteria, with downsloping from the Nrn NB prov highlands in a deep Erly flow alf xpctd to result in somewhat of a precip shadow N of Houlton to the Saint John vly, with decent snfl rates ovr this ptn of the FA only xpctd from mid Thu morn into erly aftn. There is still time to issue a wntr stm watch for this area by the Wed erly morn fcst update, but guidance has been consistent lately about lesser sn amts in the far N and NE, so at the least, a wntr wx adv will be issued prior to the beginning of the event. Otherwise, sig sn rates will slowly advc nwrd across Downeast ME Wed eve reaching Nrn areas by Thu morn. Mdt to hvy sn rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will reach Downeast areas by late wed ngt and the Cntrl highlands in the pre-dawn hrs. Heavier sn rates will exit Downeast areas by late morn, may linger in the Cntrl ME highlands, including the Baxter St. Park area thru much of the rest of Thu and perhaps even into erly Thu evening. Warmer sfc-bl temps due to entrained Atlc maritime air will likely result in mixed rn and sn or even a pd of all rn for coastal and Ern interior Downeast areas late Thu morn til Thu eve, somewhat reducing sn totals here, but enough banding should be present prior to the chg ovr to result in 7 or more inches, justifying current wrngs and watches in this area. Wntr stm wrngs will last longest in the Cntrl ME highlands where show the greatest total snfl amts...til 12z Fri...afterwhich, steady snfl will taper to more showery conditions and warmer temps will result in mixed rn/sn shwrs by Thu aftn xcpt high trrn lctns. Lastly, wind will be an issue later Wed ngt into Thu morn, spcly Downeast. Cannot a rule out a pd of near blizzard conditions in this area, but temps near fzg durg this ptn of the event may limit the amount of blowing and drifting, but something we will cont to monitor. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will pivot northwest toward Nova Scotia from the western Atlantic Friday night and then become captured by the upper level low on Saturday. This will result in the potential for some snow across the area Friday night and Saturday. The low will then begin to move away from the region Saturday night as the surface/upper lows begin to slowly move east. This will result in any steadier snow tapering to snow showers Saturday night. Sunday and Monday will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies as the surface and upper lows continue to move east of Nova Scotia. Another low will approach on Tuesday with another chance for snow. temperatures through the period will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR to high end MVFR conditions this evening, generally ceilings will be 2800 to 3200FT across the area at the start of the period. Ceilings will begin to fall after sunset dropping to around 2500FT MVFR. Ceiling in FVE is expected to fall to around 2000FT. Ceiling will remain MVFR across the northern sites FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL tomorrow. BHB and BGR will fall to LMVFR with some light snow possible before the end of the period. SHORT TERM: IFR vsbys and then clgs will advc S to N across the TAF sites Wed ngt and cont thru Thu ngt, with LIFR to VLIFR attms with heavier sn spcly Downeast sites late wed ngt into Thu morn. Conditions improve to MVFR on Fri in sn and rn shwrs Fri and Fri eve, then may lower to IFR again late Fri ngt into Sat morn with another lesser round of snfl, improving again to MVFR all sites Sat aftn with sn shwrs contg across the Nrn TAF sites while improving to VFR late Sat ngt and Sun. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will build tomorrow afternoon however are not expected and are expected to reach Gale force early in the next period. SHORT TERM: Gale force winds are xpctd ovr our waters Wed ngt thru Thu morn ahead of the mid atlc states low as it apchs our waters from the SW. Winds will then subside to SCA Thu aftn with at least SCA conditions contg thru the weekend. .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Total tide levels continue to run about a foot or so above astronomical tide levels...but lower high tides than the last few days should limit or eliminate impacts. Minor splash over is possible with high tide cycles early Thu morn. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 10 PM EST Thursday for MEZ011-015-016-031. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Friday for MEZ003>005-010. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for MEZ006-017-030-032. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for MEZ029. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norton Short Term...VJN Long Term...TD Aviation...Norton/VJN Marine...Norton/VJN Tides/Coastal Flooding...VJN