FXUS61 KBTV 231747 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 147 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN AS SOME STORMS WILL MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT MORE RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A NOREASTER FORMS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED AS WELL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 147 PM EDT THURSDAY...SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND LINING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. LAPS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS...TALL SKINNY CAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1300 J/KG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS RUNNING NEAR 4KM AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.70". BEING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE THREAT OF VERY EFFICIENT WARM PROCESSES...1 TO 3" HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR TWO SW-NE ORIENTATED AREAS, ONE IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND ANOTHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND NE VT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ON RADAR. SOME AREAS HAVE HAD 2 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY THIS WEEK SO CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH TONIGHT BEING FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREA WILL HELP KEEP THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING GOING TONIGHT. CAN EASILY SEE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL RATES AN HOUR THAT COULD EASILY CAUSE PROBLEMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL SHIFT FROM FLASH FLOODING EARLY FRIDAY TO POTENTIAL FLOODING ON RIVERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WANT TO BECOME CUT OFF OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE WE GET THROUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LOW TRYING TO CUT OFF OVER THE AREA...WE ARE NO LOOKING AT BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER VERMONT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WITH THE PRECIPITATION...LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 415 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS LOOKING AT THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS A COOLER AND WETTER START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND MARATHONERS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL DEVELOP ACRS OUR TAF SITES TODAY...WITH MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY ATTM...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS WITH IFR AT MPV WL DISSIPATE BTWN 12Z-14Z TODAY. CHCS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WL INCREASE AFT 15Z...WITH BEST CHC OF IFR CONDITIONS BTWN 17Z-21Z...WHEN INSTABILITY IS THE GREATEST. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING WITH AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/PBG WITH MVFR AT MSS/RUT/BTV. ALSO...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNTS TODAY...WL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES WL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WL DEVELOP AS SFC LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLRING TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 415 AM THURSDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXISTS FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 8AM FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD TO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. WATCH FOR MULTIPLE STORMS TO TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA AND COMBINED WITH RAINFALL RATES AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...FLASH FLOODING MAY RESULT. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION ON FRIDAY FROM FLASH FLOODING TO POTENTIAL RIVER FLOODING AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028>031-034- 035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...TABER HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KBTV 282358 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COUPLED WITH ALREADY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALREADY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAKING IT INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 03Z...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NEAR 06Z...AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. MAIN THREAT WITH INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. PLACEMENT/TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAIN STILL TRICKY AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE...BUT MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE 09Z-12Z OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VERMONT. THIS COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER VORT PASSAGE...STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 12K FEET...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEAR 1.6 INCHES...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS...FEEL THAT THERE MAY BE SOME FAIRLY HIGH RAIN RATES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. BY THE TIME THIS ROUND PUSHES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECTING 0.5-1" OF RAINFALL AREAWIDE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WITH LOWS GENERALLY 50-60 DEGREES...WITH SOME 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING JUST TO ADD IN THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING CURRENT MODEL PROGS SHOWING NEAR 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 40 KNOTS OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF WARM FRONT. THE NATURE OF THE CAPE (TALL/SKINNY) COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WOULD SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THESE AREAS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS DESTABILIZING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS FROM THE RAIN DURING THE PAST WEEK. ALSO...RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. GFS MOS LOOKS TOO COOL WITH MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT... SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER COME FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE BTV CWA LOCATED WELL INSIDE THE WARM SECTOR. SHOULD BE A PRETTY DRY DAY...THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +22-25C. A DRY YET MUGGY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER. SATURDAY BEGINS DRY AND WARM...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...RENEWING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT'LL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND JUICY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO SOME STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. LOOKING OUT FURTHER IN THE FORECAST...ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE OUR FUTURE WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING SLOWED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...LIKELY CAUSING SOME HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH STREAM FLOWS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DOES FINALLY LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH LIKELY WITH LESS OVERALL QPF. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SUNDAY...LOWERING INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS THRU 05Z THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS 06-14Z. RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES 09-14Z...CONSISTENT WITH NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATED CONDITIONS AND INVERSION LAYER 1-2 KFT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z WED. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS. GIVEN SCT NATURE OF EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ONLY CARRIED VCSH IN THE TAFS UNTIL LOCATION/TIMING BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR. THAT SAID...A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE 18-00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS GENERALLY SE-S OVERNIGHT...STRONGEST AT BTV WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-12KTS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAINLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LOCALIZED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 440 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE QPF TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED POINT TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. SOILS REMAIN VERY WET ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...BANACOS/LAHIFF HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KBTV 290219 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1019 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1011 PM EDT TUESDAY...AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT COUPLED WITH ALREADY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAKING IT INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AROUND 04Z...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NEAR 06Z...AND OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA BY 09Z. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE AN UPPER VORT PASSAGE...STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. SO REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NEAR 12K FEET...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES...AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FAIRLY HIGH RAIN RATES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY (INCLUDING ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE FROM 0.5-1" OF RAINFALL AREAWIDE WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WITH LOWS GENERALLY 50-60 DEGREES...WITH SOME 40S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 758 PM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING JUST TO ADD IN THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING CURRENT MODEL PROGS SHOWING NEAR 1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH 40 KNOTS OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF WARM FRONT. THE NATURE OF THE CAPE (TALL/SKINNY) COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WOULD SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THESE AREAS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 440 PM EDT TUESDAY... BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS DESTABILIZING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY...SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS FROM THE RAIN DURING THE PAST WEEK. ALSO...RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. GFS MOS LOOKS TOO COOL WITH MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT... SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONT WILL BE SITUATED NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER COME FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE BTV CWA LOCATED WELL INSIDE THE WARM SECTOR. SHOULD BE A PRETTY DRY DAY...THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS 925MB TEMPS RISE TO +22-25C. A DRY YET MUGGY NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER. SATURDAY BEGINS DRY AND WARM...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT...RENEWING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT'LL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND JUICY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO SOME STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. LOOKING OUT FURTHER IN THE FORECAST...ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET WEATHER LOOKS TO BE OUR FUTURE WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING SLOWED BY A PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...LIKELY CAUSING SOME HYDRO CONCERNS GIVEN THE RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH STREAM FLOWS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DOES FINALLY LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH LIKELY WITH LESS OVERALL QPF. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SUNDAY...LOWERING INTO THE 60S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING MID-UPR CLOUDS THRU 05Z THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS 06-14Z. RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS GENERALLY LOOKING FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES 09-14Z...CONSISTENT WITH NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATED CONDITIONS AND INVERSION LAYER 1-2 KFT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z WED. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN HOURS. GIVEN SCT NATURE OF EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ONLY CARRIED VCSH IN THE TAFS UNTIL LOCATION/TIMING BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR. THAT SAID...A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE 18-00Z TIME FRAME. WINDS GENERALLY SE-S OVERNIGHT...STRONGEST AT BTV WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-12KTS AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS MAINLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD. SOME LOCALIZED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY T-STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1020 PM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE QPF TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 0.50 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED POINT TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. SOILS REMAIN VERY WET ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...SO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TRAINING OF STORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...WGH/MUCCILLI LONG TERM...LAHIFF AVIATION...BANACOS/LAHIFF HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV  FXUS61 KBTV 291417 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1017 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1017 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPDATE TO INHERITED FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND WX BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION ARE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST WITH MAINLY JUST CLOUDY SKIES NOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. AS PRECIP SHIFTS THROUGH EASTERN VERMONT LATE THIS MORNING...AREA OF CONCERN TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS KEPT THE BTV CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS FEEL OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AS AREAS NORTH LOOK TO STAY IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. INCOMING 12Z NAM INDICATES STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF ANY CLEARING...BUT WITH SOME MODEST VALUES STILL AROUND 40KTS FROM 18-21Z COMBINED WITH MODEST MUCAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP. 0-6KM MEAN WINDS OF 30-40KTS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...AND WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH LOWER THREAT OF HAIL. HEAVY RAINS COULD PRESENT SOME HYDRO CONCERNS (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW) BUT LIKELY NOT OVER THE THE AREAS HARDEST HIT THE END OF LAST WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY THIS EVENING ANY SCT STRONG CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...CLEARING NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG...THOUGH WILL INCLUDE ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS OF EASTERN VERMONT WHERE BEST POTENTIAL OF PBL DECOUPLING WILL EXIST. LOWS HOLDING ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY FROM THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...A RESULT OF BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC SFC TO H5 RIDGING. 925 MB TEMPS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...PEAKING AROUND 18-21C THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND 20-24C BY FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING THE FIRST TRUE SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM HERE OR THERE ON EITHER DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WITH FORCING RATHER WEAK AND BACKGROUND LARGER-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE GREAT AND MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WHILE NO RECORDS EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT 55 TO 65. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 308 AM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD... EXTENDING OFFSHORE. TO THE WEST...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LKS/OHIO VALLEY REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS THE CWA SITS WITH SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRNTL BOUNDARIES JUST TO OUR WEST. SSW FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL MDLS SHIFT FRNT SLOWLY EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TIMING ISSUES W/ LATEST MDL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF WILL ALLOW FOR DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED QPF. EXPECTING SCT RW/TRW AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY...W/ FRNT SLOWLY TRUDGING EASTWARD SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. OVERALL QPF POTENTIAL WILL RANGE IN THE 1-2" AREA BUT LOCAL AREAS MIGHT RECEIVE MORE DUE TO CONVECTION AND "TRAINING" EFFECTS OF PRECIP MVG ALONG SLOWLY MVG SYSTEM. BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING...MDL TIMING HAS FRNT ALONG THE NEW ENG COASTLINE W/ LINGERING CLDS/-RW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE ON NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER/COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE WEEKEND... TRENDING DOWN INTO THE L70S(60S IN HIR ELEV) BY TUESDAY. OVERNGT LOWS IN THE 60S TRENDING TO THE L/M50S(40S IN HIR ELEV)BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12 THURSDAY...-RW INCREASING THIS MORNING AS FRNT APPROACHES. EXPECTING PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE ACTIVITY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. CEILINGS BKN-OVC010-035 AND VSBY WILL RANGE 1-6SM IN RW/FG. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF AFT 02Z THURSDAY AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...FG WILL BE PREVALENT. COVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. WINDS OVERALL SSW 5-15KTS BECM LGT/VAR AFT 00Z-02Z THURS. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE QPF TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED POINT TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH SOILS REMAINING VERY WET ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING PROCESSES TO DEVELOP WITHIN DISCRETE STORM CLUSTERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...BANACOS/JN HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KBTV 291659 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1259 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1259 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH REALLY NO UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. STILL LOOKING AT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG BUT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS DUE TO CLEARING NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO INHERITED FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS AND WX BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION ARE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST WITH MAINLY JUST CLOUDY SKIES NOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD. AS PRECIP SHIFTS THROUGH EASTERN VERMONT LATE THIS MORNING...AREA OF CONCERN TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WHICH WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS KEPT THE BTV CWA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT BASED ON LATEST TRENDS FEEL OUR BEST CHANCE AT ANY CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES AS AREAS NORTH LOOK TO STAY IN MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER. INCOMING 12Z NAM INDICATES STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF ANY CLEARING...BUT WITH SOME MODEST VALUES STILL AROUND 40KTS FROM 18-21Z COMBINED WITH MODEST MUCAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP. 0-6KM MEAN WINDS OF 30-40KTS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING...AND WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH LOWER THREAT OF HAIL. HEAVY RAINS COULD PRESENT SOME HYDRO CONCERNS (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW) BUT LIKELY NOT OVER THE THE AREAS HARDEST HIT THE END OF LAST WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY THIS EVENING ANY SCT STRONG CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...CLEARING NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG...THOUGH WILL INCLUDE ACROSS THE FAVORED AREAS OF EASTERN VERMONT WHERE BEST POTENTIAL OF PBL DECOUPLING WILL EXIST. LOWS HOLDING ON THE MILD SIDE...GENERALLY FROM THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...A RESULT OF BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC SFC TO H5 RIDGING. 925 MB TEMPS RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...PEAKING AROUND 18-21C THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND 20-24C BY FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING THE FIRST TRUE SUMMERLIKE AIRMASS INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A WIDELY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM HERE OR THERE ON EITHER DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT WITH FORCING RATHER WEAK AND BACKGROUND LARGER-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE GREAT AND MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. WHILE NO RECORDS EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY...AND CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT 55 TO 65. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 308 AM EDT TUESDAY...SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD... EXTENDING OFFSHORE. TO THE WEST...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LKS/OHIO VALLEY REGION. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS THE CWA SITS WITH SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRNTL BOUNDARIES JUST TO OUR WEST. SSW FLOW WILL PERSIST THRU BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD UNTIL MDLS SHIFT FRNT SLOWLY EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TIMING ISSUES W/ LATEST MDL RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF WILL ALLOW FOR DIFFERENCES IN EXPECTED QPF. EXPECTING SCT RW/TRW AHEAD OF FRNTL BOUNDARY FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY...W/ FRNT SLOWLY TRUDGING EASTWARD SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. OVERALL QPF POTENTIAL WILL RANGE IN THE 1-2" AREA BUT LOCAL AREAS MIGHT RECEIVE MORE DUE TO CONVECTION AND "TRAINING" EFFECTS OF PRECIP MVG ALONG SLOWLY MVG SYSTEM. BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING...MDL TIMING HAS FRNT ALONG THE NEW ENG COASTLINE W/ LINGERING CLDS/-RW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE ON NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER/COOLER AIR FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. OVERALL FOR TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...GOING FOR HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE WEEKEND... TRENDING DOWN INTO THE L70S(60S IN HIR ELEV) BY TUESDAY. OVERNGT LOWS IN THE 60S TRENDING TO THE L/M50S(40S IN HIR ELEV)BY TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 12 THURSDAY...-RW INCREASING THIS MORNING AS FRNT APPROACHES. EXPECTING PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE ACTIVITY THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD W/ CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. CEILINGS BKN-OVC010-035 AND VSBY WILL RANGE 1-6SM IN RW/FG. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF AFT 02Z THURSDAY AND WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF...FG WILL BE PREVALENT. COVECTION WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL. WINDS OVERALL SSW 5-15KTS BECM LGT/VAR AFT 00Z-02Z THURS. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAY SEE SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE DAYTIME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE 06-12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. BASIN AVERAGE QPF TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE WITH LOCALIZED POINT TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH SOILS REMAINING VERY WET ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WHEN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TRAINING OR BACKBUILDING PROCESSES TO DEVELOP WITHIN DISCRETE STORM CLUSTERS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...BANACOS/JN HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KBTV 011935 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 335 PM EDT SAT JUN 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY ON SUNDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM MONDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH MILD WEATHER FORECAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 314 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THE EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 1000-1500 J/KG BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OUTSIDE A WEAK VORT MAX INDICATED ON SATELLITE. CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AFTER A VERY WARM DAY TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 314 PM EDT SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE REGION. COLD FRONT TO BEGIN ITS PUSH EAST ON SUNDAY...AND MOVEMENT THROUGH NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND VERMONT WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. FORECAST NAM12 CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR APPROACHING 40 KTS. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A POTENTIAL WITH SUNDAY STORMS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...AND MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES A MOIST COLUMN OF AIR AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 9,000 FEET. SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND COMBINED WITH MBE VECTORS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. STORM TOTAL QPF A GENERAL .75 TO 1 INCH ACROSS REGION. TEMPS SUNDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER..RAINFALL...AND LOWERING HEIGHTS WITH APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE COOLER THAN PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT STILL IN MID 80S. FRONT WILL BE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH COOLER DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY COOLER AIR WELL INTO AREA AND FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE 70S. ALTHOUGH SURFACE RIDGE INTO AREA BY MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 446 AM EDT SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CONDITIONS DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE INDICATED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE TAFS WITH THE VICINITY REMARK VCTS AND CB. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT MPV/SLK WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR EXPECTED. DURING SUNDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY AFTERNOON IN VERMONT. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS/CB TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS...WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS. THEY WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR WX EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...RJS  FXUS61 KBTV 221916 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 316 PM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH THE RETURN OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH MID WEEK...AND THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES...HUMIDITY...AND A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 313 PM EDT SATURDAY...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN REPORTED ACROSS NORTHERN BORDER COUNTIES IN VERMONT...GRAND ISLE...AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN/CLINTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING...AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN WARMER AIR OVER NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL VERMONT. RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY. TEMPS TONIGHT NOTABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 313 PM EDT SATURDAY...REGION WILL BE UNDER WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FEW POORLY RESOLVED AND TIMED, WEAK VORT MAXES WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONT OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL WASH OUT AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES DOMINANT. ABSENT ANY FOCUSED FORCING MECHANISM...EXPECT TERRAIN AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE COUPLED WITH HIGH RH TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER. MODEL SOUNDING HAS SOME ASPECTS OF HEAVY RAIN SIGNATURE WITH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCH AND ABOVE NORMAL...TALL SKINNY CAPE...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH CLOSING IN ON 10K FT. NOT TOO ALARMING...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN STORMS. TEMPS...CONSISTENT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH EACH DAY AND NIGHT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS. WENT WITH A BIG BLEND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 BY MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING OFF THE COAST OF THE SERN USA...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALLOWING S-SW FLOW TO FILTER IN WARM MOIST AIR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH PWATS EASILY OVER 1 INCH...AND ML CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE FOR TS. THE PERIOD CONTINUES WITH SHORTWAVES...WARM MOIST AIR AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW...HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL TEMP LAPSE RATES NOT VERY STEEP AT 5-6C/KM DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850/925MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME BETTER DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SFC...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STRONGER SOLUTION BY ABOUT 10MB WOULD BRING PRECIP RELATED TO PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S-L80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WKND. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...BOUNDARY GENERALLY MEANDERING AROUND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED TS WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM LAKE ONTARIO. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH PSBL EXCEPTION WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS/TS. GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. AS SHOWERS SHIFT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS AND DISSIPATING WINDS...BR/FG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT IFR VSBYS AT KMPV AND KSLK WITH MVFR AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MID MORNING BTWN 14-15Z BUT CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN. SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE IN THE MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THRU THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAY AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING BR/FG. BEST CHCS FOR STORMS WL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HRS. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/BR WITH MVFR/IFR WL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 313 PM EDT SATURDAY...OBSERVATIONS FROM RUTLAND- SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE DUE TO A TELEPHONE COMMS LINE ISSUE. THE FAA AOCC IS AWARE OF THE ISSUE...BUT THERE IS NO ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THIS COMMS OUTAGE WILL BE FIXED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM EQUIPMENT...BTV  FXUS61 KBTV 230753 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 353 AM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH HUMIDITY...AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 SOME DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE 60S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT POSSIBLY BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY LOCATED CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BTV CWA. OVERALL...AREAL COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT... AND BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THERE TO ONLY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S MODEST CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF SOME HEAVY RAINS WITH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCH...TALL SKINNY CAPE...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 10KFT. WHILE OVERALL NOT TOO ALARMING...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD DROP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING PARKED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAILY SURFACE INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY HEAT...HIGH HUMIDITY AND TERRAIN WE'RE LOOKING AT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. VERY DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AND TIME THESE FEATURES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE THE IDEA OF SOME 30-40% POPS EACH AFTERNOON...WANING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...RUNNING IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE TO NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOWS GENERALLY HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING OFF THE COAST OF THE SERN USA...RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NW EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALLOWING S-SW FLOW TO FILTER IN WARM MOIST AIR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH PWATS EASILY OVER 1 INCH...AND ML CAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE FOR TS. THE PERIOD CONTINUES WITH SHORTWAVES...WARM MOIST AIR AND PERSISTENT SW FLOW...HAVE INCLUDED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL TEMP LAPSE RATES NOT VERY STEEP AT 5-6C/KM DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850/925MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME BETTER DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SFC...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STRONGER SOLUTION BY ABOUT 10MB WOULD BRING PRECIP RELATED TO PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S-L80S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WKND. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED THROUGH 13Z SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOCAL AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AS A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARYFRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILLPREVAIL THRU THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AND MIST. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AND MIST WITH MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...WGH/KGM  FXUS61 KBTV 231721 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH HUMIDITY...AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS. DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 SOME DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE 60S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT POSSIBLY BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 117 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN AFERNOON INSTABILITY/1500 CAPES. SPC HAS MOVED REGION INTO SLIGHT RISK BASED ON MODEST INSTABILITY AND FEW HOUR PERIOD OF 850 MB WESTERLY JET DEVELOPING OVER ADIRONDACKS/CENTRAL VERMONT THAT WOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. BELIEVE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...AS WELL AS CONTINUED BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED EARLIER. UPDATE FORECAST TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS, UPDATE POPS, AND ADDED GUSTY WIND WORDING TO WEATHER GRIDS/WORDED FORECAST. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL USHER IN A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF SOME HEAVY RAINS WITH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCH...TALL SKINNY CAPE...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 10KFT. WHILE OVERALL NOT TOO ALARMING...AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD DROP A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 353 AM EDT SUNDAY...OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING PARKED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DAILY SURFACE INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY HEAT...HIGH HUMIDITY AND TERRAIN WE'RE LOOKING AT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. VERY DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AND TIME THESE FEATURES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PATTERN...SO WILL JUST CONTINUE THE IDEA OF SOME 30-40% POPS EACH AFTERNOON...WANING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY...RUNNING IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE TO NEAR 90 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS...AND LOWS GENERALLY HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 424 AM EDT SUNDAY...REMAINING RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE DRIER DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGESTING A MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TO BETTER MESH WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ON THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER TROUGH...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT 15Z SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOCAL AREAS OF IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FROM 15Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AS A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION. OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AND MIST. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AND MIST WITH MVFR/IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH/KGM  FXUS61 KBTV 232002 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 402 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH HUMIDITY...AND DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY PASS. DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 SOME DAYS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH MUGGY LOWS IN THE 60S. A COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MODEST INSTABILITY OF 1500 J/KG CAPE. MAIN DRIVER FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS 850 MB WESTERLY JET TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION...AND COINCIDING WITH MAX INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE AN EARLY SHOW WITH JET FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 00Z. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL INGREDIENTS IN PLACE...PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OVER 10KFT...AND MBE VECTORS INDICATING POTENTIAL TRAINING/BACKBUILDING STORMS. RIGHT NOW EVERYTHING IS MOVING ALONG...HOWEVER REPORTS OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AS STORMS MOVE OVER. MUGGY NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR THE USUAL SUSPECTS 06-12Z OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH MODEL BLENDS AND RELIED ON BIAS CORRECTIONS TO BRING MIN TEMPS UP. DAYTIME MAXES HAVE BEEN TRENDING A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...AND TRIED TO CONTINUE WITH MAX TEMP TREND. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT SUNDAY...SLOW HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH CONTINUATION OF PRESENT WEATHER. HOT HUMID DAYS AND WARM MUGGY NIGHTS. SURFACE HIGH NUDGES NORTH...ALTHOUGH AT 500MB WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS SERIES OF WEAK SHEARED VORT MAXES ACROSS THE AREA. ABSENT ANY CAPPING RIDGE ALOFT...ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. LIKE TODAY...MODEST CAPE...WEAK SHEAR...AND PLENTY OF INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS. LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT PRECIP CHANCES BECOME MORE FOCUSED WHEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH ORIGINS FROM WESTERN CANADA CLOSED LOW REACHES OUR REGION. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT SHIFTING WINDS NORTHWEST BEHIND. POPS FOR THIS FEATURE TO RAMP UP WEST TO EAST...AND RUN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 424 AM EDT SUNDAY...REMAINING RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY. A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE DRIER DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SUGGESTING A MAINLY DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TO BETTER MESH WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. ON THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...SO HAVE GONE WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER TROUGH...SO HAVE GONE WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTING MAX TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...WITH LOWS MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. VRB CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DEVELOPED OVER NRN NY INTO THE CPV AND TRAVELING EWD. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN HZ...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR IN HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS ARE WIDESPREAD AND HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS...ESP FROM THE CENTRAL CPV SOUTHWARD. THE WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL GAIN SOME MOMENTUM SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING THE THREAT FOR SHRA AND TSRA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WILL LIKELY SEE DRYING TREND WITH MVFR/IFR BR/FG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RAINFALL DURING THE DAY. WITH CONTINUED MUGGY CONDITIONS...BR/FG MAY BE GRADUAL TO BURN OFF MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYTIME VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR PATCHY FOG AND MIST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IF ANY TAF SITE RECEIVES HEAVY RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME. && .MARINE... LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS HAVE MOVED OVER LAKE...HOWEVER AREA FROM SOUTH HERO SOUTH THROUGH BROAD LAKE TO SOUTHERN END STILL UNDERPOTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EVENING. A BAND OF WIND IN THE LOWER ATMOSTPHERE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS THE DRIVING FORCE...AND STORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS EVENING PROGRESSES. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HANSON NEAR TERM...HANSON SHORT TERM...HANSON LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM MARINE...HANSON  FXUS61 KBTV 250856 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 456 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...RATHER QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AT THIS TIME MOVING NORTHEAST. AGAIN...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 80S TODAY. CONDITIONS AGAIN DESTABILIZE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DURING DAYLIGHT SURFACE HEATING...AND THUS ANOTHER ROUND FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SPC HAS THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 435 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. ALSO...EXPECTING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...BUT DO NOT LOOK AT THIS TIME TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...MODEL SHOWING A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON THURSDAY...MODEL SHOW A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO PULL A LOT OF MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND...ESPECIALLY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO THE MAIN THREAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND...THEN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED. HAVE PUT IN ENHANCED WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 450 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FULL LATITUDE TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W'S AROUND TROF AND POSITION/MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE/QPF ACRS THE NORTH COUNTY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHCS...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...MAINLY BECAUSE OF WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. ECMWF SHOWS DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED 5H/7H MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURS INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH DEEP 850 TO 500 MB RH ACRS OUR CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH PW'S BTWN 1.50 AND 2.0"...WHICH IS 150 TO 200% OF NORMAL AND GOOD LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION...WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A TALL SKINNY CAPE AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON THURS NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SFC LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS OUR FA...WL HELP ENHANCE LLVL CONVERGENCE...WITH FAVORABLE RRQ OF 25H JET ALOFT. THINKING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WL BE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 3.0" POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS THURS INTO FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS MORE S/W ENERGY AND LOBES OF DEEP MOISTURE ROTATE ACRS OUR FA. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO POSITION OF MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. WL CONT TO MENTION HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS ATTM. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH THE CONTINUED CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...AS SYSTEM IS CUTOFF AND DEEP ATLANTIC/GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS THE NE CONUS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...GIVEN THE PROGGED SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO L80S FOR HIGHS AND MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S FOR LOWS...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WL BE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF FOG/BR...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT MSS/SLK TWD SUNRISE. CRNT OBS SHOW FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MPV WITH VIS <1SM AND CIGS BKN 100 FT...HOWEVER GIVEN LOTS OF MID LVL CLOUDS AND SOME BL MIXING...EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO JUMP AROUND BTWN LIFR AND VFR AT MPV. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MENTIONED JUST MVFR IN BR AT SLK...AS SFC WINDS AND CLOUDS MAY KEEP FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. REST OF OUR TAF SITES SHOULD STAY AT VFR WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT RUT/PBG TWD SUNRISE. NEXT QUESTION IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TWD SUNRISE AT MSS/SLK...BOTH BTV2/BTV4 AND RAP13 SHOW THIS IDEA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR 3SM SHRA AT SLK BTWN 10-14Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS BTWN 16Z- 00Z TODAY ACRS OUR CWA...WITH IMPACTS TO OUR TAF SITES. THE STRONGER STORMS WL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF 15 TO 30 MINUTES OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL WEAKEN AFT 00Z WEDS...WITH SOME FOG/BR POSSIBLE AFT 06Z WEDS AT MPV/SLK. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP TROF ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH PRODUCE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS...EACH AFTN/EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. IN ADDITION...FOG/BR WITH MVFR/IFR WL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AT MPV/SLK...ESPECIALLY IF RAIN OCCURS THE PREVIOUS AFTN. IN ADDITION...SOME GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT RUTLAND ON FRIDAY AFTN...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE POSSIBLE. && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 133 PM EDT MONDAY...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE RUTLAND-SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) HAS NOT SENT OUT A METAR OBSERVATION SINCE 0155Z. THE FAA AOCC WHICH HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THIS SITE HAS OPENED UP A TROUBLE TICKET FOR THIS SITE...AND CREWS ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON IT. THERE IS NO ESTIMATION AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THIS PROBLEM WILL BE FIXED. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER EQUIPMENT...  FXUS61 KBTV 010826 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 80S WARMER VALLEYS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 18Z MONDAY THRU 00Z WEDS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL...FOR EASTERN DACKS AND ALL OF VT...INCLUDING THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION ACRS THE MS/TN VALLEY AND NEARLY STATIONARY BERMUDA HIGH FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WL CONTS TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM FLORIDA INTO MAINE. FCST FOCUS THIS AFTN/EVENING WL BE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL BOUNDARY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. EXPECT A SHARP DWPT/MOISTURE GRADIENT ACRS OUR CWA...WITH A VERY WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT...TO LWR DWPTS/RH VALUES ACRS THE SLV...AS NW FLW ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A POTENT 5H VORT ACRS THE SE CONUS WL QUICKLY TRACK NE TODAY INTO CENTRAL PA BY 18Z AND INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z TONIGHT...WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. THIS LVLL CONVERGENCE IS SLOWLY EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THRU TONIGHT...AND WL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN. NAM/GFS SHOW PROGGED 85H JET WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACRS SNE FROM THE SW...WHILE A STRONG RRQ OF A 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNOTS IS LIFTING ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING PART OF OUR CWA IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE. GIVEN SW FLW AT 85H AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY...EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACRS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VT THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH A SHARP SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT. ALSO...PWS SURGE BTWN 1.50 AND 1.75" ACRS OUR SOUTHERN CWA...AND BEST INSTABILITY WL BE ACRS THIS REGION...WITH A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE...SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. USING A MODEL BLEND FOR QPF SHOWS 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 3 INCHES AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...WITH VERY LITTLE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALSO...HELPING TO ENHANCE SHARP NORTH/SOUTH PRECIP/MOISTURE GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY...WHICH WL TRY TO PUSH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA ON NORTH WINDS. BUT...A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH IN THE BOUNDARY...AND THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL VT INTO PARTS OF THE DACKS. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SATURATED SOILS...FEEL ITS NECESSARY TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF VT AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS. WL EMPHASIZE THE SHARP QPF/POP GRADIENT IN OUR GRIDS...WITH THE GREATEST FLOODING POTENTIAL ACRS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT THIS AFTN EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z...ALONG WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WL MENTION CAT/LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z...THEN TAPER TO SCHC/CHC AFT MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN. EXPECT A SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT IN TEMPS...WITH COOLEST READINGS ACRS THE SLV/NORTHERN DACKS AND WARMEST LWR CT RIVER VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON TUES AFTN AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE CHANGE ON TUESDAY AFTN WL BE INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. IN ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WL SPREAD INTO MOST OF VT AND NORTHERN NY...AS WARM FRNT INTERSECTS OUR CWA. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200% ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION SCHC/CHC POPS ON TUES AM...BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY AND MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY WITH LIS AROUND -3C AND CAPE BTWN 1200-1800 J/KG. SOUNDING SHOW WARM CLOUD DEPTHS >12KFT...PWS NEAR 2.0"...AND MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...WHICH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES LIKELY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUES EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND S/W ENERGY LIFTS NORTH OF CWA. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 14-16C ON TUES...BUT CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING SOME...WL STILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MENTION HIGHS IN THE M70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS. WEDS...SW FLW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY WL CONT ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH A LLVL BOUNDARY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY...CREATING INCREASED INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS CONT TO BE BTWN 1.50 AND 2.0"...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. WL MENTION CHC POPS ATTM WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 349 AM EDT MONDAY...PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FORECAST AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL THERMAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH (NEAR 2 INCHES)... THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. BY THE WEEKEND...PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY AS AFOREMENTIONED BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FLATTENS INTO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ALMOST CERTAIN THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT HARD TO TIME SUCH FEATURES THIS FAR OUT SO WILL JUST CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE HUMID AS WELL. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR AT MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK/RUT AS WELL. POSSIBLE MVFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT VFR AT MSS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR ALL SITES AFT 13Z. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES EXCEPT MSS. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN PREVAILING MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IN SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND IFR SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO FOG GENERALLY 06-12Z. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 18 UTC THIS AFTN UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTN INTO TUESDAY. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE 1ST ARRIVING THIS AFTN/EVENING AND ANOTHER ON TUES. FORECASTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACRS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...AREA WIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIAPTED WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. && .CLIMATE... BTV GOT 0.30" OF RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT AND FELL 0.07 SHORT OF BREAKING THE ALL-TIME JUNE PRECIPITATION RECORD OF 9.92. THE 18.60" MAY-JUN TOTAL IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD BESTING THE 13.87" IN 2006. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-016>019. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ028-030-031-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TABER NEAR TERM...TABER SHORT TERM...TABER LONG TERM...RJS/LAHIFF AVIATION...RJS HYDROLOGY...TABER CLIMATE...  FXUS61 KBTV 182319 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 719 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET AND COOL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 707 PM EDT MONDAY...TWO DICHOTOMOUS AIR MASSES EXIST THIS EVENING WITH A MORE SPRINGLIKE MARINE-INFLUENCED AIR MASS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT...WHILE AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST ACROSS NEW YORK HAVE AN AIR MASS MORE SUITABLE FOR MID-SUMMER. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS 65-70 DEGREES IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS HAVE LED TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR PRESENT...ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND STORMS WILL BE COLD- POOL DRIVEN. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN (PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 10K FEET)...BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH...AND SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME PROPAGATION INTO VERMONT IS POSSIBLE. AS INITIAL CONVECTION BEGINS TO DECAY HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS WESTERN NY AND PA THIS EVENING WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION...LIKELY BEING SOMEWHAT MAINTAINED SYNOPTICALLY BY AN UPPER SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LARGELY REDUCED TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING ELEVATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS FROM 55-65F. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 348 PM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AS SURFACE HEATS UP AND SOME CAPE DEVELOPS WILL SEE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM ABOUT THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. SPC HAS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN MARGINAL FOR TOMORROW. WITH HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET...MAY SEE SOME ORGANIZED STORMS CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHILE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT OUR REGION WILL BE IN COLDER AIR MASS. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS DROPPING BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO FROST POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...A PERUSAL OF THIS MORNING'S GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. THUS BY AND LARGE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL BE OFFERED. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL FEATURE SUBSTANTIAL EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BLOCKING WHICH WILL TEND TO BE REINFORCED BY INFUSED ENERGY FROM ONCE WEST PAC SUPER TYPHOON NOUL. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A SUPPRESSED POLAR JET AND BROAD-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING TO REMAIN INTACT TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH SEASONABLY COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE BEST SHOT FOR A FEW/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY DISTINCT SURFACE TROUGH, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MEAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OF SOME CONCERN WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL AVERAGE SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUS PATCHY FROST WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WHEN CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS OVERHEAD. BY SUNDAY ONWARD UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD BEGIN TO ABATE WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SOME MODEL DISPARITY BY NEXT MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY) WITH THIS MORNING'S OPERATIONAL RUNS NOW SUGGESTING THAT RESIDUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPRESS INITIAL RETURN OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR, WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NY STATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING, AND ACROSS MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDER TO OCCUR AT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV 22-03Z, THEN MAINLY AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM 03-12Z AT MOST TERMINALS WITH PATCHY BR AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT, MVFR BEING MOST LIKELY AT KMPV/KSLK. WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH 00Z (SOUTHEAST AT KPBG/KRUT) BEFORE ABATING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER, MAINLY KPBG/KBTV EASTWARD. BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. 00Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. && .MARINE... AS OF 240 PM EDT MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH WINDS ARE NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW AT 10-25 KNOTS. SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY AND WIND SHIFTS TO WEST. WINDS COULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 15-25 KNOTS. WAVES OF 1-3 FEET ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES/MUCCILLI NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG MARINE...MV  FXUS61 KBTV 071937 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 337 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY, TO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN TREND WARMER FROM MID WEEK ONWARD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 337 PM EDT SUNDAY...A QUIET EVENING ON TAP UNDER FILTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL INTO THE 60S/UPPER 50S. BY LATER TONIGHT THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK SHOWING THICKENING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE SLV BY MIDNIGHT, AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARD MORNING. THIS IN RESPONSE TO VERY ROBUST MOISTURE/WARM THERMAL ADVECTION RIDING EAST/NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF AN IMPRESSIVE 35-60 KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. BASED OFF LATEST CAM GUIDANCE AND NAM/GFS/SREF RH PROGS HAVE SPED UP TIMING TO SHOW SHOWERS ARRIVING IN THE SLV SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN PROGRESSING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 5 AM OR SO. THUNDER FAIRLY ISOLATED AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE SLV/ADIRONDACKS WHERE BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER TIME SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND IN KIND AND TREND QUITE GUST AFTER 10 PM OR SO, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST WHERE TOPOGRAPHICAL/CHANNELING EFFECTS WILL ALLOW SOME GUSTS TO APROACH 40 MPH. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL TREND STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATE WITH MINIMA GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY 12Z MONDAY TRIVIAL EAST OF THE GREENS, 0.10 TO 0.30 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND 0.25 TO 0.50 FROM THE DACKS WEST INTO THE SLV. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 337 PM EDT SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER SOUTHWEST THEN TRAVERSES THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TRENDS STATIONARY OVER TIME INTO MONDAY EVENING AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TREND MORE MODERATE. DURING THIS TIME PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.60 TO 1.90 INCH RANGE WITHIN A 150 MILE SSW TO NNE ORIENTED BAND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH. CLOUDS/PCPN WILL LIKELY LIMIT LARGE-SCALE INSTABILITY AND THUNDER THREAT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT DEEP/MOIST SOUNDING PROFILES ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO NEAR 4.0 KM SUGGEST AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VERMONT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH SCATTERED AREAS NEARING AN INCH. WITH CLOUDS/PCPN, HIGH TEMPERATURES HOLDING MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. BY MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE BAND AND STEADIER SHOWERS HOLD STEADY ACROSS OUR AREA BUT WILL TEND TO SINK SOUTHWARD OVER TIME SUCH THAT BETTER POPS/RAINFALL COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING GENERALLY IN THE 57 TO 63 RANGE OR SO. BY TUESDAY MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF ENERGY AND POTENTIAL BURST OF RAINFALL RIDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF PARENT UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY THUNDER THREAT FROM 09Z SREF CALIBRATED PROGS TO OCCUR ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THOUGH WITH DEEP/SATURATED COLUMNAR PROFILES HAVE AGAIN MENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER RAINFALL FROM THE DACKS EASTWARD. USING A CONSENSUS BLEND OF NAM/GFS/SREF/HPC QPF SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS OUR AREA, DOWNPLAYING THE MUCH HEAVIER DETERMINISTIC GFS IDEA. REGARDLESS, LIKELY ANOTHER WET PERIOD BRINGING 36 HOUR TOTALS INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AREA WIDE WITH SCATTERED TOTALS NEARING THREE INCHES WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR HYDRO CONCERNS. CONSENSUS BLEND SHOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S APPEARS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITH SHOWERS ENDING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUS WILL TAPER POPS BACK FAIRLY SHARPLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL FEATURE FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS MODELS ARE JUMPING ALL AROUND WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES FROM CONVECTION ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...FOR WEDS BEST 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE AND 5H ENERGY FROM DEPARTING MID/UPPER LVL TROF WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING OUR EASTERN CWA. HAVE CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHC POPS NEK AND PARTS OF EASTERN VT ON WEDS MORNING. HAVE NOTED SOME DISAGREEMENT BTWN WARMER GFS 85H TEMPS OF 14 TO 15C...COMPARED TO THE COOLER ECMWF 85H TEMPS BTWN 9-11C ON WEDS...AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND FRONT. WILL BLEND OF EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES AND MENTION HIGHS IN THE M/U 70S MTNS/NEK TO LOWER 80S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS. IF GFS THERMAL PROFILES VERIFY...MY TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. NEXT WEAK 5H VORT IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND WEAK/NARROW RIBBON OF 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE...WL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM...WITH GREATEST POPS/QPF EXPECTED OVER THE DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS. QPF VALUES WILL BE <0.25 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SFC HIGH PRES AND GENERAL DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AFTN INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED BL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCE POPS. ECMWF SHOWS A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SFC LOW PRES TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONVECTION ON FRIDAY...AND INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROF BY SATURDAY AND DEEPENING TO 996MB SFC LOW PRES OVER THE SLV. IN ADDITION...ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED 85H/7H CIRCULATION DEVELOPING...ALONG WITH A POTENT LLVL JET...ADVECTING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INTO OUR CWA. THIS ALL SEEMS OVERDONE DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...THEREFORE WILL TREND TWD THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER SFC COLD FRNT WITH WEAK SFC LOW PRES IMPACTING OUR CWA...ALONG WITH ANOTHER 5H TROF. SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 800-1200 J/KG...BUT BEST SHEAR IS NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA...ALONG WITH BEST FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS WITH TROF DEVELOPMENT. BOTTOM LINE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SATURDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE U70S TO LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE...ALONG WITH TIMING OF SHOWERS ARE IMPACTS ON OUR TAF SITES THRU 18Z MONDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING 1024MB HIGH PRES AND APPROACHING 1002MB LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES BY 04Z TONIGHT. IN THE ALIGNED CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TAF SITES (MSS/BTV)...EXPECT GUSTS BTWN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE...MIXING WILL BE LESS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED BTWN 06Z-12Z MONDAY. HAVE MENTION LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT PBG ASSOCIATED WITH SE SFC FLOW AND 2000 KFT OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT RUTLAND AND MPV. USING A BLEND OF MODELS SUPPORTS -SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NY (MSS/SLK) BTWN 04-06Z...CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BTWN 05Z-07Z...AND EASTERN TAF SITES BY 08Z. GIVEN THE HIGH CLOUD BASES AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTION TO VIS WITH INITIAL RAIN BAND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH LOWER CIGS AND VIS WILL REDEVELOP ON MONDAY WITH MVFR LIKELY AND PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS BTWN 15Z-18Z. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO NO LIGHTNING IS ANTICIPATED THRU 18Z MONDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY...WITH IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY SUNSET ON MONDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDS WITH VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MPV. NEXT WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRES AND BETTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY THURS AFTN. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 337 PM EDT SUNDAY...A WIDESPREAD 36-48 HOUR RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ON HOURLY TIME SCALES AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED AMOUNTS NEARING THREE INCHES FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND MAY ELEVATE THE THREAT OF MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING ISSUES. RIVERS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARPER RISES DURING THIS EVENT ARE THE AUSABLE, MISSISQUOI, LAMOILLE, AND POSSIBLY THE PASSUMPSIC AND WINOOSKI. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE OR HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS APPEAR LIKELY, THEN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. && .MARINE... AS OF 337 PM EDT SUNDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BEGUN TO SET UP OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...BRINING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KNOTS THEN INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH THE LOW 40S. THE HIGH WINDS WILL CAUSE CHOPPY WATERS AND WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 2-5 FEET ON OPEN WATERS AND IN BAYS AND INLETS WITH OPEN SOUTHERN EXPOSURES.AS OF 331 PM EDT SUNDAY... && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...TABER AVIATION...TABER HYDROLOGY...JMG MARINE...VERASAMY  FXUS61 KBTV 070816 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 416 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING CLOUDS AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO A FEW SPOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY... WARM AND HUMID TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TWO SURGES PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH 1.6-1.8" WITH 70 TD IN THE MID ATLANTIC SPARKING SCT TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SW TO NE 15-22Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THESE MAY HAVE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. AIRMASS QUITE WARM. 16-17C. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED, EXPECT MORE LIKE LOWER TO MID 80S. THESE TEMPS GIVE US TALL NARROW VERTICAL CAPE PROFILES OF 500-1000 J/KG AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT IN THIS TYPE OF WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALSO BE UP AS HIGH AS 4 KM AS 500 MB TEMPS QUITE WARM AT -7 TO -8C SO WITH MEAN RH 70-80 %, EFFICIENT WARM CLOUD RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE AT WORK. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY WEAK, SO ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A ISOLATED WET MICROBURST, DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. MODELS INDICATING A BREAK BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NY UNTIL A A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 416 AM EDT TUESDAY... EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST REACHING KMSS AROUND 00Z AND PROGRESSING SLOWLY SE ACROSS NRN NY AND VT THROUGH 12Z WED. BTV TOWARD MIDNIGHT. BEST FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATE QG FORCING WITH UPPER TROF EXPECTED WITH TONIGHT SO DESPITE WANING INSTABILITY EXPECT MOST OF US LIKELY TO GET MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONTAL BAND. NOTED SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN MI OVERNIGHT GETTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1.60" PER HOUR SO THAT'S THE TYPE OF ISOLATED RATES THAT WE MAY SEE WITH A CELL OR TWO ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT, BUT AGAIN MOST OF US WILL NOT SEE THAT KIND OF RAIN, JUST SOME ISOLATED SPOTS AS MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM ABOUT 1.6 IN ONE HOUR TO NEARLY 3" IN 3-6HRS. DID TAKE A LOOK AT CORFIDI VECTORS AND THEY ARE QUITE SMALL, LESS THAN 10 KT IN THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE 850 MB LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KTS AND ARE PARALLEL AND NEARLY EQUAL TO THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A FEW SLOW MOVING CELLS. IT WILL BE QUITE MUGGY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PAST MSS AROUND 07Z, BTV BY 12Z AND MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY 16Z. AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN WED AND THU AS PW DROP TO 0.50". KEEPING SOME HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THU AS FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE DOWN ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN ME. 850 TEMPS 10-12C SHOULD GIVE US HIGH TEMPS 75 TO 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 351 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND IS SETTING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINANT THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE SUNDAY WILL RESULT QUIET WEATHER WITH THE FIRST REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WHICH WOULD SERVE TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK VORT MAX PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND IN THE HIGH PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH WHETHER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP THROUGH ON MONDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS A SECOND TROUGH PUSHING A VORT MAX INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LEADING TO DECENT AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS THE NORTH COUNTRY DRY ON MONDAY. FOR CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUITY I BLENDED WITH THE GFS AND WILL WAIT A SEE FOR FUTURE RUNS ON THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING BEFORE ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTS TO POP AROUND THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO BUILDING CLOUDS AS LIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR LOW STRATUS AT RUT/MPV/SLK/MSS. AS THE FIRST SURGE OF ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION SO WITHOUT BEING ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS I JUST INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME TS EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE TAF SITES. THE TIMING FOR THESE POP-UP SHOWERS WILL BE FROM AROUND 14Z THROUGH 19-22Z. THEN THERE WILL BE A BREAK WERE WE WILL SEE SOME SCATTERING AND SHORT LIVED CLEARING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECOND AND BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-22 KNOTS. OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... 00Z WED - 18Z WED: VFR/MVFR. PERIODS OF SHRA WITH CHANCE TSRA. 18Z WED - 00Z SUN: VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK. && .EQUIPMENT... KTYX RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL TUESDAY OR LATER. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SISSON NEAR TERM...SISSON SHORT TERM...SISSON LONG TERM...DEAL AVIATION...DEAL EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV  FXUS61 KBTV 142342 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 742 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 735 PM EDT TUESDAY...TRACKING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OTTAWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY SEEING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE LEFT FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S HEATING. SHEAR IS MINIMAL SO NO ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SHOWER/STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS 1.5-1.7" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS >10,000 TO 12,000 FEET. GREATEST FOCUS OF SHOWER AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL PUSH. LATEST HI-RES MODELING TAKES THE COLD FRONT AND NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY 1-2Z...BTV/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARDS 06Z...AND ST. JOHNSBURY/EASTERN VERMONT BY 10Z. WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES/DRYING AIRMASS MOVING IN TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS BY 12-13Z GENERALLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOW/MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 344 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-DAY. OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SHOULD FEEL PRETTY NICE THOUGH COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH A MODEST NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FAVORED CLIMO LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG BOTH NIGHTS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY'S TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL, BUT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. RISING HEIGHTS, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 13-15C AND REMAINING THERE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SO EXPECTING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. ON SATURDAY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DIFFERENCE CREEP INTO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH NW FLOW AND WEAK TROFFING ALOFT THE WARM FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. GFS SUGGESTS MORE OF A STRENGTHENING HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SE FLOW INTO EASTERN VT PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER WEST. ECMWF MOVES THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AVERAGING IT OUT KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING AND TEMPS EDGING UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS COME BACK TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL FEATURES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTN...WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS/CIG ASSOCIATED WITH SHRA APPROACHING KMSS AND MVFR CIGS AT MPV. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE AFT 20Z ACROSS NORTHERN NY SITES AND ENTER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY AT SLK/MSS/PBG AND BTV THRU 04Z TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD CAUSE AREAS OF TURBULENCE AND WIND SHEAR. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES THRU 12Z WEDS. MUCH DRIER WEATHER WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDS. OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRES THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING AT MPV/SLK BTWN 07Z-11Z WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE SAT AFTN INTO SUNDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...TABER  FXUS61 KBTV 150212 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1012 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1010 PM EDT TUESDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MAKE ITS ENTRANCE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NEW YORK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER HAVE FIRED UP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO VERMONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 735 PM TUESDAY... TRACKING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OTTAWA FROM THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY SEEING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH 500-1000 J/KG CAPE LEFT FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S HEATING. SHEAR IS MINIMAL SO NO ORGANIZATION EXPECTED. MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SHOWER/STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS 1.5-1.7" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS >10,000 TO 12,000 FEET. GREATEST FOCUS OF SHOWER AND ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL PUSH. LATEST HI-RES MODELING TAKES THE COLD FRONT AND NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY 1-2Z...BTV/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARDS 06Z...AND ST. JOHNSBURY/EASTERN VERMONT BY 10Z. WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES/DRYING AIR MASS MOVING IN TOWARDS MORNING. LOWS BY 12-13Z GENERALLY UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND LOW/MID 60S ACROSS VERMONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 344 PM EDT TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-DAY. OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE A GOOD 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SHOULD FEEL PRETTY NICE THOUGH COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS AS DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WITH A MODEST NORTHWEST WIND. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS WELL FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FAVORED CLIMO LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG BOTH NIGHTS AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THURSDAY'S TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL, BUT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY AND MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 324 PM EDT TUESDAY...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY. RISING HEIGHTS, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND RIDGING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPS RISING TO 13-15C AND REMAINING THERE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SO EXPECTING TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE COAST AND WARM ADVECTION BEGINS WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY EVENING INTO SAT MORNING. ON SATURDAY A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DIFFERENCE CREEP INTO THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH NW FLOW AND WEAK TROFFING ALOFT THE WARM FRONT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. GFS SUGGESTS MORE OF A STRENGTHENING HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SE FLOW INTO EASTERN VT PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER WEST. ECMWF MOVES THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AVERAGING IT OUT KEEPS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING AND TEMPS EDGING UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS COME BACK TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AS OF 00Z AND SHOULD REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z BEFORE EXITING VERMONT AFTER 08Z. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THEN A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT WITH THE FRONT. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS RIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING IN THE MVFR CATEGORY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE BECOMING VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG EACH MORNING AT MPV/SLK BETWEEN 07Z-11Z WITH LIFR CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...SISSON AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER  FXUS61 KBTV 220802 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 402 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS VERMONT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 339 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...500MB LOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS W-CENTRAL QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THRU THE SW PORTION OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PER IR/WV IMAGERY WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. POPS PEAK EARLY TO MID-AFTN BETWEEN 25-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMTS IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS GENERALLY 0.10" OR LESS. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF SHOWERS...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED...WITH PATCHY EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATING BY 12Z. THE PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LIKEWISE...850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +10C SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...OR 5-8 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-12 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL MIXING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND TRANSLATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 339 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE ROTATING SSEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS DIMINISHING TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. THE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG A BIT TONIGHT...BUT MAINTAINED PATCHY WORDING FOR THE FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. LOWS GENERALLY 53-58F TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTN. KEPT POPS 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE GREEN MTNS...WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. WITH UPR LOW ROTATING SSEWD...MAY SEE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER POTENTIAL DAYTIME HRS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ERN VT WITH BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING PER 00Z GFS. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CENTRAL/ERN VT FOR SEVERAL HOURS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...WITH LESSER POTENTIAL ACROSS NRN NY. HIGHEST POPS AROUND 60% IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY MID-DAY HRS FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS...LESSER WEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 339 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...500MB TROUGH DEPARTS EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS DRYING TREND WONT LAST AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY, WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 11KFT, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT, WARMING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S ON TUESDAY, WARMING TREND REFLECTED IN FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, THEN UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. BUT OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE OVER MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. VLIFR-LIFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KMSS/KSLK THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. ELSEWHERE, STRONGER WINDS OF 3-6KTS AND CLOUDS CLEARING LATER WILL KEEP KPBG/KBTV/KMPV AND KRUT VFR THROUGH 08Z IF NOT LONGER. CANNOT RULE OUT BR/FG DEVELOPMENT. MORNING SUNSHINE WILL ERODE ANY BR/FG BY 12Z-13Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10KTS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS MID- LEVEL VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED VCSH. AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE IN VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOME SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM  FXUS61 KBTV 221105 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 705 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS VERMONT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND BACK INTO THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 339 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...500MB LOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS W-CENTRAL QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THRU THE SW PORTION OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PER IR/WV IMAGERY WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. POPS PEAK EARLY TO MID-AFTN BETWEEN 25-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMTS IN AFFECTED LOCATIONS GENERALLY 0.10" OR LESS. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF SHOWERS...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED...WITH PATCHY EARLY AM FOG DISSIPATING BY 12Z. THE PREVAILING WNWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LIKEWISE...850MB TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND +10C SUPPORT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...OR 5-8 DEG COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY NW 10-12 MPH...WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST LOW-LEVEL MIXING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND TRANSLATION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 339 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING ACROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE ROTATING SSEWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANTICIPATE SHOWERS DIMINISHING TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN MOIST NWLY FLOW. THE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT NOCTURNAL FOG A BIT TONIGHT...BUT MAINTAINED PATCHY WORDING FOR THE FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND ERN VT AND WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION. LOWS GENERALLY 53-58F TONIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO EXPECTED CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTN. KEPT POPS 20-40 PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE GREEN MTNS...WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID 70S. WITH UPR LOW ROTATING SSEWD...MAY SEE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER POTENTIAL DAYTIME HRS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ERN VT WITH BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING PER 00Z GFS. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS CENTRAL/ERN VT FOR SEVERAL HOURS FRIDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS...WITH LESSER POTENTIAL ACROSS NRN NY. HIGHEST POPS AROUND 60% IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY MID-DAY HRS FRIDAY...AND COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN SPOTS...LESSER WEST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 339 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...500MB TROUGH DEPARTS EASTWARD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AS RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS DRYING TREND WONT LAST AS ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SBCAPES EXCEEDING 1000J/KG. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES SUNDAY, WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 11KFT, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL EFFECTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES A CHANCE FOR DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH MIN TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FRIDAY NIGHT, WARMING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S ON TUESDAY, WARMING TREND REFLECTED IN FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S, THEN UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10KTS BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 20KTS. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT KSLK AND KMPV. OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOME SHOWERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BANACOS NEAR TERM...BANACOS SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...KGM  FXUS61 KBTV 141754 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1254 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING OFF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES, BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TURN BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1253 PM EST THURSDAY...IN GENERAL FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW MORE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM ALL GLOBAL AND NATIONAL MODELS IN REGARDS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH A SAGGING WEAK SURFACE FRONT. IDEA WILL BE THAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THAT LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT DROPS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. CURRENTLY WE'RE SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN MASSENA AND NORTHWARD INTO MONTREAL, AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA, THOUGH WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEPTHS DON'T THINK WE'LL SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. FOR TONIGHT WE'LL SEE LAKE EFFECT BAND PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SHIFTING A LITTLE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY MORNING AND WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTLES IN. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE BROAD VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO SEE SOME 500MB RIDGING AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 417 AM EST THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PASSING SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W)...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS MODEL. THIS MEANS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS DEEPENING OCEAN STORM. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND WEAKEN BY SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC. EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM. EXPECTING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION...AS OCEAN STORM MOVES OUT TO SEA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 417 AM EST THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 8 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING EVERY TAF SITE. CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR FROM KPBG EASTWARD WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY DROPPING CONDITIONS BREIFLY TO MVFR. TO THE WEST THOUGH AT KMSS/KSLK MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LOWERING VSBY TO IFR AT TIMES. AFTER 00-04Z A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE INTL BORDER WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE/SNOWS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE DISSIPATING. ALL CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR. 12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. 12Z SUN - 00Z WED...MIX OF VFR/MVFR. CHANCE SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...LAHIFF  FXUS61 KBTV 191048 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 648 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will bridge across the area today into tonight with variable clouds and continued mild temperatures. A sharp frontal boundary will develop across the region on Thursday into Saturday with widespread, occasionally heavy rainfall expected. As the front pushes east of the area by early next week a return to seasonably cooler weather is expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 648 AM EDT Wednesday...Minor adjustments to sky cover as we progress toward sunrise per latest satellite/observational trends. Also added at least some potential for some patchy mist/fog across the area later tonight, though confidence remains only modest for occurrence as mid to high clouds will be streaming northeast into the area over time. Highest probs for fog most likely across eastern VT where clearing will persist longer. Rest of forecast remains on track. Have a great day. Prior discussion... Generally quiet weather expected over the next 24 hours as the cold front which brought scattered showers to the region last night settles south into the Mid- Atlantic region. Variable clouds this morning should generally trend partly sunny in many areas today as high temperatures range through the 60s to around 70. This is still some 10-12 degrees above normal values for the date. Clouds may linger longest across the Adirondacks and portions of the southern SLV where residual moisture of Great Lakes origin is advected atop terrain on light west/northwesterly flow. Clear to partly skies this evening will then trend mostly cloudy later tonight in response to weak low pressure lifting northeast from the Ohio Valley ahead of evolving, seasonably deep upper troughing across the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. There may even be a few light showers advecting into the far southwestern Adirondacks and southern SLV toward morning, but by and large precipitation will hold off until after sunrise Thursday. During this time the large-scale background flow will begin to back to south/southeasterly, heralding a return of deeper moisture and strong warm thermal advection progged to arrive by later Thursday into Friday with potential heavier rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 442 AM EDT Wednesday...500mb trough continues to dig south while progressing eastward late in the week. Strong area of vorticity at the base of this trough will be associated with strengthening surface low pressure system tracking up the Ohio River Valley across PA and into the NE Thursday into Friday. Warm front ahead of this low will bring rain into the North Country. PWATs ranging from 1-1.25 inches, expect periods of moderate to heavy rainfall possible, especially across St Lawrence Valley to the Adirondacks as strongest deformation will focus around those areas. Trough becomes more neutral to negatively tilted late Friday, slowing the progression eastward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 442 AM EDT Wednesday...Rain continues with longwave trough extended down from Quebec through the Carolinas. Added element of complexity to the forecast will be tropical/coastal system far offshore ESE of OBX. GFS keeps the progression of this trough faster than rest of observed model guidance. 00Z ECMWF shows moisture and energy from this tropical system feeding into the 500mb trough. This results in a closed low with strengthening surface low Friday night into Saturday. Storm total QPF continues to have heaviest amounts over the St Lawrence Valley...nearing 3 inches...tapering off eastward to about 1 inch in the CT valley. GFS outlier with heaviest amounts oriented slightly west across Adirondacks into Nrn Champlain Valley. As the trough swings through Saturday night into Sunday, W-NW flow filters into the North Country with cooler temperatures and some wrap around precip producing snow showers Saturday night, mainly for areas above 1500 feet. Upslope showers taper off Sunday night before a mid-level shortwave trough brings another chance for showers Monday, followed by building high pressure for the mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 12z Thursday...SCT/BKN mainly VFR cigs to gradually trend SCT/SKC after 18Z under light west/northwest flow from 5-10 kts. After 00Z mainly SKC early, with thickening mid/upper clouds AOA 120 AGL arriving overnight in advance of stronger system. Winds light. Some patchy br/fg possible here and there, with highest confidence at KMPV. Confidence only modest of more persistent fg given aforementioned thickening mid/high clouds overnight. Outlook 12z Thursday through Sunday... 12z Thursday through 12Z Saturday: Trending OVC with areas of MVFR/IFR in steadier showers/rain as frontal system and complex low pressure affect area. Highest probs of IFR intially at NY terminals (KPBG/KSLK/KMSS) in closer proximity to developing front, with confidence lower initially at VT terminals. IFR probs climb for VT terminals after 00Z Saturday as frontal zone and steadier/heavier rainfal edge east. Again, this is a complex system so confidence on exact timing of pcpn arrival and cigs/vsby progs only moderate at this point. 12Z Saturday onward...widespread MVFR/IFR in showers/rain as low pressure lifts through region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG  FXUS61 KBTV 112343 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 PM EDT Fri May 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle over the region tonight with relatively clear skies and light winds. This will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 30s over much of the area...with 20s expected in the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Frost is expected to develop given these conditions. A warm front south of the region on Saturday will bring a chance of showers to the southern third of Vermont with clouds expected elsewhere. Below normal temperatures will continue...but this will change on Sunday as another high pressure system builds in and brings sunshine and seasonal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 743 PM EDT Friday...The forecast remains in good shape as of early evening. I did adjust coverage of high cirrus/cirrostratus sky cover upward somewhat per latest observational trends, using a model blend of rh progs above 300 mb through the first half of tonight. At this point it appears cloud thickness will wax and wane through time and should be thin enough not to affect current forecast minimum temperatures, but will re-assess later this evening if need be. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... Relatively clear skies and light winds tonight will set the stage for the development of frost across the North Country. Temperatures will generally fall into the lower to middle 30s across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys as well as central and south central Vermont. Over the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont lows will get down into the 20s. Since we do not issue frost or freeze headlines for the northern Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom until the 21st of May...we are issuing a frost advisory for the remainder of the area from 2am Saturday to 8am Saturday. Areas immediately along Lake Champlain will likely be the one area that does not see a lot of frost...but you will not have to go too far inland to have temperatures be cold enough for some frost to develop. Central Vermont will have the best potential for frost with some locations getting down to about 30 degrees. There will be some increase in clouds after midnight...mainly over southern Vermont...but feeling is the clouds over the remainder of the area will not have a significant impact on temperatures. For Saturday trends in the data continue to support the warm front to our south remaining far enough south to have less and less impact on the area. At this time it now appears south central Vermont and southern Essex County New York will have the best chance at seeing some rain showers...generally a tenth of an inch or less...Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon before this precipitation pushes south of the area. Over the remainder of the area it should be a pretty nice day...but temperatures will generally be in the 50s to lower 60s. High pressure builds back in for Saturday night and dry weather returns everywhere with clearing skies and light winds. However...air mass is not as cold as the current one and thus lows will generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s...but around 30 in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday...Dry conditions continue across the North Country right through Mother's Day as high pressure centers over the region. Highs will range from the mid 60s to low 70s under mostly sunny skies with perhaps a few/scattered cirrus passing through the day. Quiet weather persists into Sunday night with some question on cloud cover as models indicate some low/mid level moisture streaming into the region as high pressure drifts offshore and south/southwesterly flow increases. With such a dry airmass in place, it will take until after midnight for low/mid levels to saturate enough to produce clouds, but expect it won't be enough to produce any precipitation as drier air remains in place aloft. With clouds and increased winds expected, overnight lows will be very mild and generally drop only into the mid 40s and low 50s. A few spot upper 30s are possible in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and far northeast Vermont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday...High pressure will continue to dominate the North Country's weather to start next week with a warming trend expected as the high shifts off the eastern seaboard. Partly sunny skies, steep lapse rates and average 925mb temps around +16C will support highs well into 70s both Monday and Tuesday, with lows above normal in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Moving on towards mid-week, forecast uncertainty lies in the position and movement of a surface boundary and associated moisture/instability. 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are coming into better agreement showing high pressure building southward from Ontario/Quebec Tuesday night, suppressing the boundary to our south and keeping the forecast area dry, but for Wednesday onward differences remain. The GFS briefly shifts the boundary north for Wednesday with showers impacting central/southern areas before moving back south as a cold front Wednesday night. Meanwhile the ECMWF holds strong with high pressure over the region through Friday. In general, the trends seem to suggest drier conditions versus wet through next week, but still plenty of time to fine tune the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR through the forecast period with light winds less than 10 kts expected. SCT to occasionally BKN high cloud cover generally above 200 AGL this evening lowers into the 100-200 AGL range by 12Z Thursday before thinning after 18Z. Only exception at KRUT terminal where BKN/OVC cigs a bit lower in the 045-090 AGL range will occur in the 12-20Z time frame on Saturday with perhaps a brief passing light shower. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ001-002- 005-006-008>012-016>019. NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ026>028- 035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...JMG  FXUS61 KBTV 012328 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 628 PM EST Tue Jan 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually build into the North Country tonight and this will help to bring any light snow showers to an end and decrease clouds overnight. Expect sunshine on Wednesday with high pressure right over the area...but below normal temperatures are expected. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper level disturbance moves into the region. This feature will also spread some light snow into the North Country. At this time one to two inches of snow is expected for most areas late Wednesday night through the first half of Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 616 PM EST Tuesday...Clouds have struggled to dissipate early this evening but looking at current satellite trends on both IR and RGB channels shows these clouds thinning. Also, high resolution guidance shows the cloud thickness diminishing as drier air is currently displacing much of the lingering moisture. The dwindling cloud cover should yield a pretty nice radiative cooling night, especially after midnight once the majority of the clouds dissipate and/or exit the region. Thus, lowered temperatures a few degrees to get more in line with the hi-res guidance. This dropped temperatures 2 to 4 degrees, with the most noticeable changes across Saint Lawrence County with just a few high clouds moving overhead. Previous Discussion...Wind advisory for south central Vermont has been cancelled. Cloud cover and stronger flow aloft exiting the area are limiting the ability to mix stronger winds to the surface. Winds will still be gusty over most of the area through this evening before winds start to taper off as high pressure builds into the region. As is typically the case clouds have been slow to clear today with cold air advection taking place throughout the day. Have held onto clouds longer for the first half of the night before eventually clearing out as subsidence increasing from building high pressure. Based on surface observations still cannot rule out some light snow showers over the mountains through this evening...but as clouds erode and vertical depth of moisture decreases further...the precipitation should come to an end. Should see temperatures falling more sharply after midnight with lows generally in the single digits above and below zero. However...there will be some lower teens in the Champlain Valley and southern areas of Vermont. Should be a quiet day on Wednesday with high pressure over the area...light winds...a good deal of sunshine...and highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. Trends in the data suggest shortwave trough moving into the area late Wednesday night will provide sufficient dynamic support for light snow to spread from west to east across the area...especially after midnight. Should generally see an inch or less...but have raised the precipitation chances into the likely category. Increasing cloud cover should result in lows not as cold as tonight with values generally in the teens...but some single digits in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 309 PM EST Tuesday...Upper shortwave trough will traverse the North Country Thursday morning with a weak surface trough as well. Overall, dynamics and moisture associated with the system look better than yesterday. Warm, moist advection will lead to modest upglide at the 280K isentrope. Positive vorticity advection associated with the trough will also provide forcing for ascent. Given the warm air advection, snow to liquid ratios will likely be somewhere between 15:1 and 20:1. This system will quickly shift east during the day, which will shunt moist air off to the south and east again with drying conditions for the afternoon. All told, snow totals should be near 1- 3". Highs will be near the freezing mark, and lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 309 PM EST Tuesday...Northern stream will continue to send weak perturbations across the North Country under weak large scale troughing. None appear to be very impactful. An upper trough passes through Friday, but heights will be rising during the day and better moisture remains off to our north. Southern stream slough continues with modest upper low meandering across the southeast. Models continue to delay its arrival as it moves east, with this particular trough still not phasing with any northern stream system. On Saturday, this feature will begin to accelerate eastward as upper flow speeds up. There still remains some spread as to where surface low pressure tracks and how this impacts downstream development of a coastal low. 09Z run of the SREF shows bi-modal distribution for the different cores used in the ensemble forecast system. One would take this west of the Appalachians, and the other places it near the Appalachians. This difference can also be seen with the GEFS and GEPS. It still remains possible for the coastal low to develop just shy of the benchmark, which would still be enough to place snow along southern and eastern VT. Have highlighted greatest probabilities there, with less across the Champlain Valley and Northern New York. Scattered snow showers on Sunday, and Monday looks mostly dry. The next system approaches next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the long term. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...A few lingering snow showers across KSLK and and KMPV will be seen through around 02Z before finally clearing out. Any lingering MVFR ceilings will raise to VFR by 04Z with VFR ceilings prevailing from midnight onwards. Gusty northwest winds will continue through around 04Z as the surface gradient remains intact. After that, northwest winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the day Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Clay/Evenson SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Clay