FXUS61 KBOX 261952 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 352 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD THU AFTERNOON INTO FRI WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A BROAD BAND OF LIGHT-MOD RAIN HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BAND...THE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT SFC BASED INSTABILITY QUITE LOW SO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ELEVATED AND RATHER WEAK...WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING AND ONLY ENHANCED RAINFALL. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF STRONGER STORMS IN THIS REGION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. FURTHER S...PARTICULARLY CT/RI/SRN MA...THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUNSHINE...INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF A SECONDARY WAVE HAVE LEAD TO SOME MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAIN WAVE STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE E OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION STILL LEFT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...STILL EXPECTING A THREAT FOR SOME STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITH A SWATH OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. ENHANCED WORDING MAINLY REPRESENTS THE HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THIS WORDING PER LATEST MD FROM SPC LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE THROUGH 00-06Z AND DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST...EXPECT USUAL COLUMN STABILIZATION WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO SHRA BEFORE COMING TO AN END ALTOGETHER. IN FACT...GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A BRIEF MID LVL RIDGE WHICH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY PROVIDE NOT ONLY SOME DRY WX...BUT POSSIBLY EVEN BREAKS IN THE SKIES WHICH COULD ENHANCE A SECONDARY CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THU. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AND WITH SOME AREAS SEEING EVENING RAFL...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS EVEN THE THREAT THAT SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE BUT SCATTERED RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR PATCHES OF DENSE FOG FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... THURSDAY... ANOMALOUS PATTERN FOR JUNE AS A SERIES OF VERY STRONG VORT MAXES FROM WEAKENED CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE SLIDING INTO LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GENERATION OF SFC LOW PRES IN THE SRN GREAT LAKE...A FEATURE GUIDANCE NOW HAS GOOD AGREEMENT ON. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY THEN STALL AS ENERGY FROM THE VORT MAX AND THE LOW PRES SLIDE E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COMBINING THIS FEATURE WITH DEVELOPING LOW LVL JET TO THE S...AND HAVE RIPE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A BIT WEAKER DURING THE DAY THANKS TO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY /ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED EARLIER...MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME BREAKS OF SUN INITIALLY/...AND COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. SB CAPES ARE HIGHER WELL TO THE SW WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG EVIDENT OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. SHEAR ALSO NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IT WAS ON WED. THEREFORE...WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES...A FAIRLY TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE ON SOUNDINGS...AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...FEEL BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH TRAINING POTENTIAL. CAN/T RULE OUT THAT A WET MICROBURST OR SMALL HAIL MAY DEVELOP WITH NEAR 1000 J/KG OF CAPE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING WITH THIS UPDATE. GIVEN THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HOWEVER...AND LOOKING AT STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR HEAVY RAIN THU NIGHT...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE. THU NIGHT... STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO RIDE W TO E ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS IT STRENGTHENS...EXPECT THE FORMATION OF A NEAR 40 KT SLY LLJ WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...WHICH MAY BECOME ELEVATED THANKS TO MID LVL WARMING/MOISTENING WITH THE LLJ...THERE CONTINUES THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME THUNDER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CARRY FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO WATCH BERKSHIRES AND WORCESTER HILLS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. ALSO...EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY COULD DICTATE WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS LIES FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 2.0 INCHES...ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WELL. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HEADLINES... * NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO FLOODING * HIT AND MISS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND * WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE PERIOD DETAILS... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ON GOING FRIDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES IN PLACE. WHILE THE ACTIVITY MAY BE MOST NUMEROUS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD IN PLACE. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A WARM AND HUMID WEATHER REGIME. IN ADDITION...SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE DAILY OCCURRENCES OF HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SOME DAYS THAN OTHERS...BUT THAT IS JUST TOO TOUGH TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWAT VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. AS FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR THE THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. TIMING WHICH DAYS END UP MORE FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT WILL DEPEND UPON EXACT TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND INSULATION THAT OCCURS EACH DAY. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOW THAT CERTAINLY DOES NOT MEAN THERE WON/T BE SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A HIGH END WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK APPEARS UNLIKELY. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STILL EXPECTING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A BETTER FOCUS BEING CT/RI AND SRN MA. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THEM. OVERNIGHT...STORMS DIMINISH...BUT SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AT TYPICALLY PRONE AIRPORTS...THE SOUTH COAST...AND THOSE THAT SAW RAINFALL TODAY. MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN THIS FOG. THU INTO THU NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. VFR BEGINS THE DAY OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING FOG. BUT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAN REASON FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE IS ANY SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE TODAY AND LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF BUT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY DOMINATE...BUT BOUTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU... QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS. SOME FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE OVER S WATERS TONIGHT. LATE DAY THU INTO THU NIGHT... MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW REACHING 20-25 KT BY LATE DAY WILL LEAD TO LIKELY HOOD THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. ESPECIALLY AS SEAS APPROACH 5-6 FT OVER THE SRN OCEAN WATERS BY TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... BERMUDA HIGH WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS MAY EVEN GUST A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER MIXING. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH WILL RESULT IN SEAS AT OR ABOVE SCA LEVELS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND OUR OUTER-ATLANTIC WATERS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...SPORADIC STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE A HAZARD TO MARINERS. && .HYDROLOGY... SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY...BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...ON TUESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN THE VICINITY AS STRONG LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE...AND DECENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW TRAINING CONVECTION BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT EVEN AS RAINFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THANKS TO BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2.0 INCHES. THEREFORE...THERE IS THE THREAT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION PARTICULARLY LATE DAY TOMORROW INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO ESPECIALLY WATCH REGIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL AS WELL AS URBANIZED AREAS...WHERE CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS SAVE FOR THE CAPE...ISLANDS AND SRN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH THIS UPDATE. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS MORE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE AND WE ARE ABLE TO GET A HANDLE ON CONVECTION LATE TODAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ002>004. MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ002>021-026. NH...NONE. RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY MARINE...FRANK/DOODY HYDROLOGY...STAFF  FXUS61 KBOX 150825 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 425 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF GUSTY WINDS...SOAKING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BRIEF CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY BUT UNSEASONABLE CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRI WITH MODERATING AFTERNOON TEMPS INLAND...BUT REMAINING CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GRADUAL MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES THIS MORNING. MANIFESTING ITSELF AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WHERE A POCKET OF LOW LVL INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED ACROSS SE MA AND RI. HOWEVER...THROUGH MID DAY...NOT EXPECTING THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH OR COVERAGE BY TOO MUCH GIVEN THAT STRONGER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE W WILL CONTINUE TO USURP MOST OF THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SEE BELOW FOR MORE ON THIS/. THE KEY ASIDE FROM INCREASING SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDS DESPITE THE BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. EARLY DAY MIXING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DEEP ESPECIALLY FROM WORCESTER COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST. MAINLY AS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START IN THE LOW 60S AND CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE LOWER THAN AREAS TO THE W...CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL BE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE/FRONT AND WILL PEAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE INCREASING FROM A START OF 45 KT AT H92 AT 12Z...TO 70-80 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE IN TERMS OF MIXING AS THEY ARE INITIALIZING TOO COLD AT THE SFC THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY BEGINNING AT NOON...AS SOME OF THIS HIGH MOMENTUM IS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. WILL FOCUSED WHERE HIGHER MIXING IS LIKELY /EAST OF WORCESTER COUNTY/ BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER W SINCE THE LLJ WILL ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT THERE FIRST. EXPECTED WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY...BUT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPS...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LIKELY MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 70F TODAY ACROSS THE E WHERE A BREAK OR TWO OF SUN IS POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL START IN THE LOW 60S. FURTHER W WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE ALL DAY AND TEMPS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS MORNING...ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... * STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS * A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MERGING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN ITS ASSOCIATION WITH DECENT UPPER LVL DYNAMICS...GOOD LOW-MID LVL F-GEN...AND CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IT WILL LEAD TO A MIX OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND ALLOWING COLDER/DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR ISO-THUNDER WITH THE COLD FROPA ESPECIALLY AS MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SFC DWPTS SUGGEST AT LEAST THE LOW END THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINFALL BAND. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING... GIVEN THE GULF MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES /APPROACHING 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ BETWEEN 70-80 KT...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH. THE STRONG JET WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.0C/KM SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM W-E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE QUITE LOW WHICH SUGGESTS THAT BANDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY LINGER IN SOME AREAS AS WELL. GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES IN ANY CONVECTION. CURRENT FLOOD WATCH /GIVEN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER IS ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD IN AREAS OF CT/ LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL BE EXPANDING E WITH THIS UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE I-95 AND I-195 CORRIDORS AS LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOCUS A BAND WITH THE LLJ ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR URBAN/STREAM FLOODING. FOR MORE ON THE HYDRO IMPACTS...SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW. WINDS... AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...WILL BE CONTINUING WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE LONG-FUSED THREAT OF STRONG WINDS DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING. MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE INVERSION AS THEY ARE INITIALIZING TOO COLD THIS MORNING. ALSO...SHOULD ANY CONVECTION OR FINE LINES DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THERE IS THE BETTER CHANCE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PRECIP-DRAG AND BETTER LOCALIZED MIXING WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE OF THE 70-80 KT H92 JET TO BE REALIZED. THIS MAY REQUIRE EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER W AS THE LLJ ARRIVES THERE THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...OR MORE SHORT- FUSED IF THE CONVECTION IS REALIZED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TODAY. WINTRY MIX/FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL... THE BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE E OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...COLD AIR WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE SFC TO MID LVLS DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/SNOW FROM W TO E WITH EVEN THE LOW END POTENTIAL OF SOME ACCUMULATION IN THE W AND N OF THE ROUTE 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A RAPID TEMPERATURE DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ON WET ROADWAYS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS LEADING INTO THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. THE KEY WILL BE THE RACE BETWEEN THE COLD AND THE DRIER AIR EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS/ACCUMS...BUT THERE IS THE LOW END CHANCE OF A LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS IN THE EXTREME W AND HIGHER TERRAIN AS GUIDANCE HAS ONLY INCREASED BOTH THE DEPTH AND SPEED WITH WHICH THE COLD AIR COMES IN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY ENDS. COASTAL FLOODING... SEE BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION...BUT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT SOUTH COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING /AROUND 9-10 PM/. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY BUT UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WED/WED NIGHT * DRY THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON - CHILLY COAST/MILDER AFTERNOON/S INLAND * A PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BUT LOW CONFIDENCE * NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DETAILS... WEDNESDAY... AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY LEFT OVER PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE CAPE/ISLANDS BY EARLY TO MID MORNING WED...AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH DURING THE MORNING...BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOMALOUS 850 MB TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BETWEEN -6C AND -10C ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE WILL OFFSET THIS TO SOME DEGREE. ALL IN ALL...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE HIGHS RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING...THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST MA WILL PROBABLY SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE 20S...TO THE LOWER 30S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL GENERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THU INTO FRI AFTERNOON...THE ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN MA COAST BOTH DAYS. FURTHER INLAND...ENOUGH HEATING SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH WELL UP INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES THU NIGHT INTO FRI ALONG THE COAST. THIS WOULD BE A RESULT OF AN INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS NEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND EXACT TRACKS OF THESE WEAK WAVES. HOWEVER...THEY WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS FRI NIGHT AND/OR SAT. WHILE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN AT LEAST A BIT BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MUCH OF THIS TIME MAY TURN OUT DRY UNTIL LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES WITH THE RISK FOR RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL WITH THE TENDENCY FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE REGION. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN OVERALL TRENDS...HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IN TAFS. MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING AS LONG AS WINDS REMAIN 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20+. IF THEY DROP...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MAINLY MAINLY MVFR DUE TO CIGS...EVEN IN SOME -SHRA ACROSS ERN CT/RI AND SE MASS. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE TOWARD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY IN A MIX OF RAIN AND FOG AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME THUNDER ACCOMPANYING SOME OF THE RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. OVERNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET BEFORE ENDING FROM W TO E. ACCUMULATIONS OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. A TREND TOWARD VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...STRONG S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE DAY TODAY...WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN 30-40 KT POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LLWS WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL...40-50 KT THROUGH MORNING...WITH 50+ KT POSSIBLE OFF THE DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE W-NW WITH THE COLD AIR TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST 20-30 KT. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TAFS. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WED MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY WED EVENING. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES AND A ROUND OR TWO OF RAIN SHOWERS. TIMING AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT BEST CHANCE OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. S-SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THIS THREAT. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW EARLY WED MORNING BUT CONTINUE WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS UNTIL THEY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING WED. SOME HEAVY RAIN/FOG AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. SEAS INCREASE TO 10-12 FT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE MORNING SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY AFTERNOON. SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS GIVEN PLENTY OF LEFT OVER SOUTHERLY SWELL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MUCH OF THE TIME. IN ADDITION...SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER- WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND MARGINAL SCA SEAS CONTINUES. HOWEVER...EXACT WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF A COUPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... A FLOOD CONTINUES THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT SWOLLEN RIVER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF UPSTREAM SNOWMELT COMBINING WITH THE BASIN AVERAGE 1.0-1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ANTICIPATED INTO TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF MAINSTEM RIVERS AND ADJOINING CREEKS AND STREAMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE WATCH AREA. THIS WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED E TO INCLUDE ERN MA AND RI AS WELL HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT A BAND OF 1.5 OR MORE INCHES IN A SHORT TIME MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS WELL AS SOME MINOR FLOODING IN FLASHIER RIVERS/STREAMS. THIS THREAT IS EXACERBATED IN THE MORE DENSE URBAN CORE ALONG AND AROUND THE I-95 AND I-195 CORRIDORS...ESPECIALLY IF SOME CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN OCCURS...SOMETHING LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT IN THESE AREAS FURTHER E. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER FOR HARTFORD AND MIDDLE HADDAM. HOWEVER CURRENT PROJECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUGGEST OTHER POINTS ALONG THE RIVER MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MINOR FLOOD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG LOWER REACHES OF CT RIVER SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CURRENT WATER LEVELS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING 30-40 MPH OVER THE WATERS /HIGHER NEAR SHORE/ A POTENTIAL SURGE OF 1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IS POSSIBLE ALONG S COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE /9-10 PM LOCAL/. THIS TIDE IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF LATE...BUT IS NOT NECESSARILY ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH. HOWEVER...WITH THE ADDED SURGE AND OFFSHORE WAVE ACTION THERE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME SPLASHOVER OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THIS HIGH TIDE. CURRENTLY THE FORECAST TIDE IS ABOUT 5.4 FT AT THE FOX POINT GAUGE IN PROVIDENCE AS A REFERENCE. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT / ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH- COAST. WILL EVALUATE WITH LATER FORECASTS AND HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ002>021-026. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ004>007-012>024-026. NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001>007. WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ232-233-235-237-250-254>256. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-231-234-236- 251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY MARINE...FRANK/DOODY HYDROLOGY...STAFF TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF  FXUS61 KBOX 160748 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 348 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ONE MORE DAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS UNTIL LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSH EAST...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS BY TONIGHT. THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO SOME POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING. THE RAIN COMES TO END EARLY IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FEW VERY LIGHT -SHRA AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND IN BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE W. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE STATUS QUO THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR MANY ESPECIALLY W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS AND MONADNOCKS. A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS IS LIKELY TO MAKE LINGER FOR THE WHOLE DAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. CLOSER TO THE E COAST...MAINLY FOR MA BUT POSSIBLY PARTS OF E RI...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC RIDGING LOSES ITS FINAL GRIP. THEREFORE...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE A BIT WARMER IN THE E THAN THE W...WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S UNDER THE STRATUS LAYER...AND MID 70S TOWARD THE E. OTHERWISE...DO NOTE A SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST AREA OF -SHRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...MAINLY THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY BETWEEN S FLOW UP THE VALLEY AND SE FLOW IN THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME OF THESE MOVE UP AND BEGIN TO EFFECT PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN APPROACHES AHEAD OF THE ACTUALLY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NY/PA. ASIDE FROM THESE SHOWERS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD /AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER/ -SHRA ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE E COMPONENT OF THE WINDS IN THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS/QPF THROUGH THE DAY TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. NOSE OF A POTENT LLJ WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE W...SO EVEN WITH ONLY MODEST DAYTIME MIXING...SOME WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. LEADING TO A HUMID...BUT BREEZY DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... * HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING * TONIGHT INTO MID DAY SATURDAY... METEOROLOGICAL SETUP... SLOW MOVING SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THIS EVENING THEN CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. WITH IT...COMES STACKED SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTING 1.5+ INCH PWAT AIRMASS /NEARLY 3 STD DEV FROM NORMAL/ AND ROBUST 40-50 KT SLY LLJ /NEARLY 4 TO 5 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS MOISTURE LADEN AIR COMES WITH A CONDITIONALLY MOIST PROFILE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 11KFT AND THE SLY LLJ ENERGY PRODUCES VERY LOW CORFIDI VECTORS. THANKS TO ALL OF THIS MOISTURE AND GOOD DYNAMICS...EXPECT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BE EXACERBATED BY SOME TRAINING /THANKS TO THE LOW MAGNITUDE CORFIDI VECTORS/. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS A SECONDARY WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED CONVECTION AS WELL. PARTICULARLY IN THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS...A SLIGHT E COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...SO QPF TOTALS ARE HIGHEST THERE...MAINLY 1.5-2.5 INCHES. QPF VALUES DROP GRADUALLY TOWARD THE E...WITH 1-2 INCHES WIDESPREAD THROUGH CENTRAL MA/RI/SRN NH AND SOMEWHAT LESS AS THE FRONT WORKS THROUGH E MASS. HOWEVER...A LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD TRAINING IN FACT BECOME AN ISSUE. TIMING... SOME ONGOING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CT VALLEY W DURING THE EVENING...BUT THE PEAK WILL BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT FRONTAL WAVE...FROM ABOUT 10PM-4AM IN THE W...THEN 4AM-10AM FOR THE E. FLOODING THREAT... THE OVERALL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE STRONGEST EARLY WHEN THE FRONT IS TO THE W...AND IT DOES WEAKEN AND BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT CROSSES SRN NEW ENGLAND. HENCE THE LOWER QPF VALUES FURTHER E. ALSO...WITH LEAFOUT HAVING OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND SINCE THE LAST HEAVY RAIN EVENT...BETTER SOIL ABSORPTION IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THERE ARE MITIGATING FACTORS. THE MAIN ISSUE IS FOR TRAINING HEAVIER CELLS. WILL NEED TO WATCH PRIMARILY URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR THIS THREAT /POSSIBLY EVEN IN ERN MA/RI DESPITE WEAKENING SYSTEM/. SMALL STREAMS PARTICULARLY WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED...IN THE CT VALLEY AND E SLOPES MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WELL. MAIN STEM RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL. GIVEN THAT THIS IS PREDOMINANTLY AN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND SMALL STREAM POTENTIAL ISSUE...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN ANY ONE AREA FOR A FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH THIS UPDATE. THE REST OF SATURDAY... GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE COLD FRONT...SUGGESTING IT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE EVERYWHERE BY ABOUT MID DAY ON SATURDAY. VERY DRY AIR AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SOME AREAS IN THE W MAY BE BKN ENOUGH TO SEE THE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WITH AT LEAST SOME SUN EXPECTED BY PEAK HEATING...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATELY WARM AIRMASS /THE FULL COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO LAG/ AND W DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 70S DESPITE WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY FOR MANY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... BIG PICTURE... DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING OVER NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS DRAWN WEST AND MERGES WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY. THIS FORMS A CLOSED LOW THAT HOVERS OVER/NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SHORTWAVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK. THE DAILIES... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE/GEORGES BANK SUNDAY...BLOCKED BY STALLED OCEAN STORM SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. RH CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER BUT DRY BELOW AND ABOVE DURING THE NIGHT. THE MERGED UPPER LOW NOTED ABOVE WILL BE WITH US THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST. COLD POOL MOVES OVER US ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW...TEMPS AT 500 MB WILL RANGE FROM -23C TO -27C SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE TOTALS AROUND 50 ON SUNDAY AND 50-55 MONDAY-TUESDAY...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.5C/KM. HIGH RH VALUES WILL LINGER IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER. THIS WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER AS WELL. WITH ANY INITIAL SUNSHINE...MIXED LAYERS SHOULD REACH TO 800 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS AT 800 MB WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...BUT ANY DEEPER MIXING MIGHT HELP TEMPS REACH THE LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY... THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT STILL SOME MOISTURE IN THE 800-850 MB LAYER SO STILL SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THROUGH TODAY... MAINLY MVFR FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PARTICULARLY WEST OF A WST-ORH-MHT LINE. EAST OF THIS LOCATION...PERIODIC BREAKS TO VFR ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY IN BRIEF SUNNY BREAKS. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING MVFR WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE AS SHOWERS FROM THE WEST BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WINDS MAINLY S-SE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT... BROAD AREA OF RAIN /SOMETIMES HEAVY/ WILL BE MOVING FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION. MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 14Z. ASIDE FROM MVFR...PERIODS OF IFR ARE LIKELY IN THIS RAIN ALONG WITH SOME LLWS OUT OF THE S AROUND 40 KT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED. SAT... IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED...SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY FROM THE CT VALLEY W ARE LIKELY TO ALREADY BE VFR BY 12Z...WITH VFR BREAKS SPREADING E RAPIDLY THROUGH MID DAY. WINDS SHIFT FROM THE S TO THE W AROUND 10 MPH. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS MAY DROP BACK TO MVFR IN LOWER CIGS BEFORE BREAKS TO VFR RETURN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MVFR/IFR RETURNS BY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR GIVES WAY TO MVFR FOR A WHILE DURING THE DAY...THEN EXPECT A RETURN TO MAINLY IFR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. THROUGH TODAY... S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON S WATERS AND MAY BEGIN TO INVADE E WATERS BY THE EVENING. SOME NEAR SHORE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ESPECIALLY AROUND CAPE COD. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH S WATERS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPAND TO WATERS AROUND CAPE COD FOR GUSTS DURING THE BULK OF THE DAY...AND SLOWLY BUILD THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE E WATERS BY EVENING. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY... STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THEN CROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY FRI. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS MAY OCCASIONAL REACH 25 KT /ALTHOUGH MOST GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER/ AND INCREASE S SWELL WILL BEGIN TO EFFECT ALL WATERS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. THEREFORE...HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPANDING TO ALL OCEAN WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...OTHERWISE SOME LOCALIZED FOG MAY LEAD TO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT FIRST ACROSS THE S WATERS SAT MORNING...THEN THE E WATERS BY SAT AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THEN STALLS TO THE E. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W WITH THIS IMPROVEMENT. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY NIGHT... WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS 5-6 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 FEET...BUT MAY FLIRT WITH 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231>234. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ235-237- 255-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/DOODY MARINE...WTB/DOODY  FXUS61 KBOX 091324 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 924 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTH COAST, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY BUT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT MAY RESULT IN SOME HIGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 925 AM UPDATE... EXPERIMENTAL GOES-E IFR PROBS DOING A GREAT JOB DEPICTING AREAS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. TRENDS SHOW SOME EROSION ACROSS INTERIOR AND INTO BOS/PVD CORRIDOR WHERE WE EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH MIDDAY...WHILE CHANCES FOR CLEARING NEAR S COAST APPEAR TO BE MUCH LOWER. THIS MATCHES CROSS SECTIONS FROM HIGH-RES MODELS WHICH INDICATE SOME CLEARING ACROSS INTERIOR WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE MORE STUBBORN NEAR S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO REFLECT THIS THINKING AND NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A BIT...ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB. THIS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ABNORMALLY HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS FOR EARLY MAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNLIKE TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY SCOUR OUR OUT BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID THEN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON...BUT BY NO MEANS EXTREME. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION...IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN THE MARINE IMPACT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO WE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY * LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANG ALONG THE COAST * REMNANTS OF ANA WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS DURING TUE * HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DISCUSSION... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES /DEWPTS RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS/...DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY CAUSE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO N CENTRAL CT DURING MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WELL INLAND WHERE K INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY...SLOWLY WORK OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...BUDGING THE BLOCKING RIDGE AS THE REMNANTS OF ANA ALSO START TO SHIFT E-NE MONDAY NIGHT-TUE. THE REMNANTS SHOULD PASS WELL S...BUT ATTENDANT S-SW SWELLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO S FACING COASTAL AREAS ESPECIALLY ON TUE AND MAY CONTINUE INTO WED AS THEY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE S COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MON NIGHT AND DURING TUE AS COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS. BEST INSTABILITY ALSO IN PLACE...SO THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COAST. HAVE MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. INCREASED HUMIDITY AND PWAT/S OVER 1.5 INCHES MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH MAY TRAIN ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT IF THEY ORGANIZE NEAR OR AHEAD OF IT. CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER INLAND SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE INCREASED DEWPTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATE TUE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH E TUE NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SLOWLY E WITH INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME. HIGHS ON THU MAY ACTUALLY RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID MAY. BY NEXT FRIDAY...MIGHT START TO SEE MORE DEEP MOISTURE WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR CAPE COD/ ISLANDS THROUGH AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY BEFORE GOING VFR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS/FOG BRING IFR BACK INLAND TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR NEAR COAST. INCREASING SW WINDS SHOULD BRING FASTER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SUN MORNING. EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE IT MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS NORTHWEST MA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR EXPECTED 17-18Z. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LOWER CIGS MAY BE MORE STUBBORN THIS MORNING BUT VFR EXPECTED 16-18Z. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY SW FLOW. IFR-LIFR LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG S/SE SHORELINE TERMINALS...ENCROACHING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. -DZ POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE -SHRA / TSRA OVER N MA INTO N CENTRAL DURING MON. TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS REGION. MIX OF LOW END VFR DOWN TO IFR CIGS. LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG COAST. BREEZY SW- WINDS. SCT -SHRA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS MAY GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. DECENT MIXING OVER THE LAND WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD/MARGINAL EVENT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S-SW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY REACH CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO INCREASING HUMIDITY ON THE S-SW WIND FLOW. SCT SHOWERS REACH THE EASTERN WATERS LATE MON. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL PASS S OF THE WATERS WITH S-SW SWELLS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS INCLUDING RI AND BI SOUNDS. SWELLS MAY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ALSO EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOW CHANCE OF TSTMS AS COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING TUE. LOW CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS AOA 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS WITH PRECIP AND PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING DURING TUE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIND SHIFT TO W-NW WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LEFTOVER SWELLS UP TO 5-7 FT WED WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO WED NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... SUNDAY... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TO 80S TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. GOOD MIXING OVER THE LAND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR INTERIOR ZONES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...JWD MARINE...FRANK/EVT FIRE WEATHER...FRANK  FXUS61 KBOX 091725 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 125 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTH COAST, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY BUT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND/OR TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING TUESDAY...BUT MAY RESULT IN SOME HIGH SURF ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 125 PM UPDATE... LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED TO S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH EXCEPTION OF FEW PATCHY LEFTOVER CLOUDS ACROSS INTERIOR. EXPERIMENTAL GOES-E IFR PROBS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHEST VALUES CONFINED TO SHORELINE AND POINTS OFFSHORE...WHICH IS WHERE CLOUD BANK WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE HEADING INLAND ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PATCHES TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE SOME DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB. THIS WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ABNORMALLY HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS FOR EARLY MAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNLIKE TODAY...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE STRONGER AND MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY SCOUR OUR OUT BY MID MORNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE THEY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...EXPECT A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 55 AND 60 WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID THEN WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON...BUT BY NO MEANS EXTREME. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 14C...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. SOUTHEAST OF THIS REGION...IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST GIVEN THE MARINE IMPACT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW RISK OF A SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST GIVEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOSING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SO WE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AT ALL. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * EXPECT MILD CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY * LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANG ALONG THE COAST * REMNANTS OF ANA WILL PASS S OF NEW ENGLAND AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS DURING TUE * HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COOLER AND DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DISCUSSION... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE...SO EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES /DEWPTS RISING TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS/...DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY CAUSE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO N CENTRAL CT DURING MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE WILL BE WELL INLAND WHERE K INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY...SLOWLY WORK OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...BUDGING THE BLOCKING RIDGE AS THE REMNANTS OF ANA ALSO START TO SHIFT E-NE MONDAY NIGHT-TUE. THE REMNANTS SHOULD PASS WELL S...BUT ATTENDANT S-SW SWELLS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO S FACING COASTAL AREAS ESPECIALLY ON TUE AND MAY CONTINUE INTO WED AS THEY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE S COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MON NIGHT AND DURING TUE AS COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS. BEST INSTABILITY ALSO IN PLACE...SO THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE S COAST. HAVE MENTIONED THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. INCREASED HUMIDITY AND PWAT/S OVER 1.5 INCHES MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WHICH MAY TRAIN ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT IF THEY ORGANIZE NEAR OR AHEAD OF IT. CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...WHICH MAY ACTUALLY SHIFT A BIT FARTHER INLAND SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT/TUE WITH THE INCREASED DEWPTS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST LATE TUE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH E TUE NIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SLOWLY E WITH INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRY BUT COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME. HIGHS ON THU MAY ACTUALLY RUN UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID MAY. BY NEXT FRIDAY...MIGHT START TO SEE MORE DEEP MOISTURE WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST NEAR CAPE COD/ISLANDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. LOW CLOUDS/FOG HEAD BACK INLAND TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR... ESPECIALLY NEAR COAST. INCREASING SW WINDS SHOULD BRING FASTER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR SUN MORNING...EXCEPT ON IMMEDIATE S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MA LATE SUN AFTERNOON OR SUN NIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT IFR/LIFR TO REDEVELOP ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF LOWER CIGS. KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TIMING OF ONSET OF LOWER CIGS. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. BREEZY SW FLOW. IFR-LIFR LOW CLOUDS/FOG ALONG S/SE SHORELINE TERMINALS...ENCROACHING INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. -DZ POSSIBLE WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE -SHRA / TSRA OVER N MA INTO N CENTRAL DURING MON. TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS REGION. MIX OF LOW END VFR DOWN TO IFR CIGS. LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG COAST. BREEZY SW- WINDS. SCT -SHRA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS MAY GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE AREAS OF FOG...WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. DECENT MIXING OVER THE LAND WILL RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF NEAR SHORE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE ITS A 3RD PERIOD/MARGINAL EVENT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NEAR SHORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S-SW WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY REACH CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS FOR A TIME SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO INCREASING HUMIDITY ON THE S-SW WIND FLOW. SCT SHOWERS REACH THE EASTERN WATERS LATE MON. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE. REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL PASS S OF THE WATERS WITH S-SW SWELLS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS INCLUDING RI AND BI SOUNDS. SWELLS MAY INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 8-10 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ALSO EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOW CHANCE OF TSTMS AS COLD FRONT CROSSES DURING TUE. LOW CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS AOA 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VSBYS RESTRICTIONS WITH PRECIP AND PATCHY FOG...IMPROVING DURING TUE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIND SHIFT TO W-NW WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. LEFTOVER SWELLS UP TO 5-7 FT WED WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT MAY LINGER AT AROUND 5 FT ON THE FAR SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS INTO WED NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... SUNDAY... TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TO 80S TO THE NORTHWEST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE. GOOD MIXING OVER THE LAND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGHER DEWPOINTS... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR INTERIOR ZONES. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...JWD MARINE...FRANK/EVT FIRE WEATHER...FRANK  FXUS61 KBOX 210603 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 203 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND BRING HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY INTO MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A PERIOD OR TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... ***HEAVY RAINFALL TO BEGIN AFTER 2-3 AM ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND REACHING SE NEW ENGLAND TOWARD DAYBREAK*** 2 AM UPDATE... NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOW OVERSPREADING SNE WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LIFTING NE ACROSS NH INTO NYC AREA. HEAVY RAIN ASSOCD WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WHICH MOVES INTO SNE THROUGH DAYBREAK BRINGING INCREASING RAINFALL FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING LIFT MOVES INTO THE REGION AT THE NOSE OF THE JET. PWATS INCREASE TO TO 2-2.25" BY 12Z AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH WELL OVER 10 KM SUPPORTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SUNDAY...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO PUSH N INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES ACROSS...PROBABLY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SIGNAL HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA BETWEEN 12Z-18Z ACROSS S RI/S COASTAL MA FROM ABOUT A KPVD- KTAN-KPYM LINE S TO THE COAST. RAIN WILL FALL QUICKLY IN SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASINGLY SOUPY AIRMASS MOVING IN. COULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS QUICKLY INCREASE ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING PWATS AND INCREASING DEWPTS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL MOVE ALONG STEADILY SO THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NOT SIT AROUND. THIS WILL PUSH E FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. HOWEVER...MAY SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE /LAGGING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM/ WORK E DURING THE AFTERNOON...SO MAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY THOUGH THE PWATS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. THE SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS MAY LINGER THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ALONG THE E COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. WILL START TO SEE IMPROVEMENT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH HIGH DEWPT AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FALLS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON * SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS * DRY AND PLEASANT WED INTO AT LEAST PART OF THU * PERIOD OR TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY... A NORTHWEST FLOW OF DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PERHAPS A LEFT OVER SPOT SHOWER IN NORTHWEST MA EARLY IN THE MORNING FROM DEPARTING LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OTHERWISE...LEFT OVER MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SO A WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT... A DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION...AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... QUITE THE INTERESTING SET UP FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY... BUT THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS AT THIS TIME RANGE. SEVERAL THINGS HAVE US CONCERNED...BUT THERE ARE SOME POSSIBLE LIMITATIONS AS WELL. TRYING TO FORECAST A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT 3 DAYS IN THE FUTURE IS QUITE CHALLENGING. ITS EVEN MORE DIFFICULT THAN A WINTER STORM...SINCE MANY MORE MESOSCALE FEATURES GO INTO THE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES. WE WILL GO THROUGH THE POSITIVES AND NEGATIVES IN THE NEXT TWO PARAGRAPHS. POSITIVE FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER: 1) WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENT JET DYNAMICS. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH....WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF JUNE. 2) SOME FORM OF A REMNANT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE IN THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR EXCEED 6.5 C/KM FOR A TIME. THESE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONE THING WE HAVE BEEN MISSING PRETTY MUCH THIS ENTIRE SEVERE WEATHER SEASON AND ARE VERY IMPORTANT IN ALLOWING FOR EXPLOSIVE UPDRAFTS. TIMING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTION WILL BE KEY IN WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY. 3) 0 TO 1 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PERHAPS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 150. AGAIN...MUCH OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER: 1) WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY TUE AM. IF THE ACTIVITY AND/OR SOME CLOUD DEBRIS MOVES IN TOO EARLY...INSTABILITY AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF SURFACE HEATING. 2) TOO MUCH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...MAY BRING A MODIFIED MARINE LAYER INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS. ALL IN ALL...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SOLAR INSULATION WE RECEIVE AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE/PRECIPITATION. IF WE END UP WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY...THE POTENTIAL WOULD BE THERE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN STRONG JET DYNAMICS/HELICITY AND A PERIOD OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ITS DEFINITELY THE BEST SET UP BY FAR WE HAVE SEEN ALL SEVERE WEATHER SEASON...BUT WHETHER OR NOT THAT TRANSLATES INTO A DECENT EVENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WITH NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED WED INTO MOST OF THU. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST THU...SO LOW RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE THU IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY... LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL POSE THE RISK FOR A ROUND OR TWO OF UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THU NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ODDS FAVOR TEMPS AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL OVER THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 OR 2 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO CUT UNDERNEATH OUR REGION. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING. WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ISOLD TSTMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN EXITS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VFR POSSIBLE CT VALLEY...BUT LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY TSTM W NEW ENG. IFR LIKELY PERSISTING CAPE/ISLANDS. SE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT ALONG WITH POCKETS OF LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON CAPE AND ISLANDS AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS. MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE BUT POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE INTERIOR. LOW RISK OF EARLY EVENING TSTMS W NEW ENG. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY DOMINATE...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE LATE TUE AM INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LOWER CIGS WORK UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. LOWER CONDITIONS MAY ARRIVE THU NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS QUITE LOW. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...S WINDS TO INCREASE BEGINNING AROUND OR AFTER 06Z AS LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL PUSH TOWARD THE WATERS. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS MAY REACH 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THE WATERS S OF BI/RI SOUNDS. RAIN AND PATCHY FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS. LOW CHANCE OF ISOLD TSTMS. SUNDAY...EXPECT S WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS RI/BI/NANTUCKET SOUNDS AND CC BAY. REDUCED VSBYS IN RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES AND PATCHY FOG. SCT THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHIFT FROM S-SW TO W AND DIMINISH. MAY SEE LEFTOVER 5 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NIGHT ON THE OUTER WATERS. LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VSBYS EARLY THEN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE. OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFT OVER SWELL WILL LIKELY RESULT INTO 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS INTO THE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH TUE EVENING. SEAS MAY BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS. THESE TWO THINGS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS A FEW OF OUR WATERS...WITH THE BEST SHOT NEAR NORTHEAST MA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFT OVER 3 TO 5 FOOT SWELL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT WILL DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK THU. OTHERWISE...WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MAZ017>022. RI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...KJC/FRANK MARINE...FRANK/EVT  FXUS61 KBOX 220044 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 844 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING...BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND. MAINLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A CHANGING STEERING PATTERN MAY MEAN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 750 PM UPDATE... MONITORING WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS CENTRAL MA/ E CT AT 2345Z ASSOCIATED WITH H5 SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS. ALL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS ENDED WITH THESE SHOWERS...AT LEAST FOR NOW. ALSO NOTING A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WORKING OUT OF CENTRAL NY THAT MAY HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER... WITH LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING...WILL BE TOUGH TO HOLD ON WHILE IT SHIFTS E. MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER ISSUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG ALONG THE E COAST AS WELL AS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS. WITH DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHERE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. ALREADY SEEING LOW VSBYS ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. JUST RECEIVED A REPORT FROM COOPERATIVE OBSERVER IN EAST SANDWICH STATING THEY ARE ALREADY FOGGED IN AS N-NE WINDS BRING FOG OFF OF CAPE COD BAY. WILL BE MONITORING GOES-E IFR AND LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS TO SEE TRENDS ALONG E COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... A PARTLY SUNNY AND WARM AFTERNOON IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEA BREEZES ON THE COAST WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT THEY WERE TODAY...BUT STILL AROUND 60 SO IT WILL FEEL SUMMERLIKE. MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT A FEW BRIEF SPOT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MA DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SHOWERS BEGIN TO APPROACH N AND W AREAS LATE MON NIGHT * SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES ON TUESDAY...UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES * DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WED AND THU WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES * COULD SEE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH STILL UNCERTAIN OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... FAST H5 FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK...THEN APPEARS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE UNDERGOING AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK. NOTING RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY AROUND WED-THU WHILE A RESPONDING TROUGH STARTS TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MARITIMES. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE STALLED STORM TRACK...WHICH HAS BEEN SITTING S OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST THE LAST WEEK. WITH THIS CHANGE...THE TRACK MAY SHIFT JUST FAR ENOUGH N LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND TO POSSIBLY BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES MOVE ALONG THIS TRACK. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH DID LEAN A BIT MORE TOWARD THE HI RESOLUTION SHORTER RANGE MODELS FOR MON NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUE...THEN LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE SUITE BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DETAILS... MONDAY NIGHT...BUBBLE HIGH PRES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...WILL START TO SEE CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM W-E AHEAD OF APPROACHING VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. MAY START TO SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO N AND W MA AFTER 06Z OR SO. EXPECT LOWS TO FALL BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 60S. TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE VIGOROUS DIGGING H5 SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF NY STATE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. NOTING VERY STRONG INSTABILITY PARAMETERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE BEST SHOT LOOKING TO OCCUR FROM THE INTERIOR INTERIOR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA INTO N CENTRAL AND NE CT. HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT WATERS FARTHER E SEEING SOME SEVERE CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE S COAST...EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. EXPECT WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH N OF THE REGION DURING TUE MORNING AS COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS NY STATE. LOTS OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH CAPES ON ORDER OF 2000 J/KG OR HIGHER...K INDICES IN THE MID-UPPER 30S AND LAPSE RATES AROUND 6-7C/KM OR POSSIBLY HIGHER FOR A TIME WITH A POSSIBLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. ALSO NOTING SW SHEAR ON ORDER OF 40-50 KT...ALL SIGNALING GOOD CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION OF CAPPING WITH MILDER AIR ALOFT...AS WELL AS DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT MAY STREAM ACROSS THE REGION AND CUT BACK ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE. WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY. SPC HAS CENTRAL-W MA INTO N CT MENTIONED IN A SLIGHT RISK...BUT COULD SEE THAT EXTEND E IF CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E STEADILY...PUSHING OFFSHORE TUE EVENING. MAY SEE SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS THAT WILL EXIT RATHER QUICKLY. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE SHORE. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRES RETURNS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN THU NIGHT FROM THE SW AS ANOTHER WARM FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH. MODEL TIMING ISSUES IN PLACE AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOING CHANGE. FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AND A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE ONGOING. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE THE STORM TRACK MAY SHIFT FURTHER N ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD BRING WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 00Z UPDATE... TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE...MAINLY FOR LOW CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO FOG. BIG ISSUE WILL BE HOW LONG THE FOG WILL HANG ALONG THE E COAST... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE MA...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. NOTING IFR-LIFR CIGS/VSBYS OFF AND ON FROM KGHG DOWN TO KHYA AND KPVC AT 00Z AS THE FOG MOVES IN OFF OF CAPE COD BAY ON LIGHT N-NE WINDS. FURTHER W...NOTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS NE MA AND S COASTAL AREAS AS THEY DISSIPATE THROUGH 03Z. AWAY FROM THE E COAST...SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR. MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS. SPOT SHOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOW RISK THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...BUT RIGHT NOW PLAYING IT OPTIMISTIC. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. SPOTTY MVFR VSBYS IN WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS N AND W MA AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOR NEAR THE COAST WITH MVFR-IFR VSBYS LATE. TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUE INTO TUE EVENING AS COLD FRONT PASSES. TEMPO FOR MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY TSRA. CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/ STORMS. POSSIBLE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY TSRA ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE TUE EVENING. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY...HIGHEST E MA/RI...VEER TO W-NW AND DIMINISH TUE NIGHT. IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW-SE FROM AROUND 19Z-21Z THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THU NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR ON THU. ANOTHER LOW MAY PASS NEAR OR S OF THE REGION THU NIGHT/FRI. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SCT SHOWERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. LIGHT W-NW WINDS BECOME S THU NIGHT...THEN E-NE FRIDAY GUSTING TO 20 KT. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF FOG MOVING INTO THE CAPE OFF CAPE COD BAY WITH VSBYS BELOW 1SM AS WELL AS ON NANTUCKET. ALSO NOTING LOW CLOUDS/FOG LINGERING ALONG E COASTAL AREAS AS SEEN ON COASTAL OBS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. MAY SEE THIS FOG LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...LEFT OVER SWELL WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LIGHT W-SW WINDS. PATCHY FOG WITH REDUCED VSBYS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. S-SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT LATE. EXPECT SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO TUE EVENING WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING...BUT WILL IMPROVE TOWARD DAYBREAK WED. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT TO NE WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ON FRIDAY. LEFTOVER 5 FOOT SEAS WED MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SUBSIDE WED EVENING. WINDS BACK TO E-SE THU NIGHT...THEN TO NE FRIDAY. GUSTS TO 20 KT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5-7 FT LATE FRI ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT/FRI IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237- 254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...FRANK/EVT MARINE...FRANK/EVT  FXUS61 KBOX 060516 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1216 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL BRING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD AFTERNOONS THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL STORM GRAZES THE SOUTH COAST TUESDAY BUT MOSTLY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. A DYING COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE TIME HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK AND A RETURN TO MILD TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 1215 AM UPDATE... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MANY OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO 20S WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG. THIS WILL BE TREND THROUGH DAYBREAK. STILL SEEING SOME OF HIGH-RES MODELS TRYING TO FORM A DECK OF STRATUS NEAR S COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPERIMENTAL GOES-E MVFR PROB IMAGERY SHOWS DECK OF CLOUDS WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND WHICH MAY TRY TO HEAD N BEFORE DAYBREAK...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO REMAIN S OF ISLANDS. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVERNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS IN 20S INLAND AND 30S COAST ARE ON TRACK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SUNDAY... HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL AND SETS UP SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE OCEAN S OF THE ISLANDS. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW SHALLOW MIXING UP TO ABOUT 950 MB...SIMILAR TO TODAY. STRONGER W/SW FLOW WILL BRING MILDER LOW LEVEL TEMPS INTO SNE WITH 950 MB AVERAGING 8-10C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY TOUCHING 60. A BIT MORE WIND THAN TODAY WITH MODEST SW BREEZES. SUNDAY NIGHT... MOT MUCH CHANGE WITH HIGH PRES DOMINATING S OF NEW ENG. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH LOW PROB FOR SOME LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS...OTHERWISE MOCLEAR. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN A BIT MILDER TEMPS WITH MINS MOSTLY UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES BOS AND OUTER CAPE/ACK. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BIG PICTURE... UPPER RIDGE OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND FLATTENS TO A ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE MOST PROMINENT UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND GENERATES COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WHICH THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DIVERGE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WE FAVORED A BLEND OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. THE DAILIES... MONDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. ONE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA...ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...WITH SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY. MIXING IS FORECAST TO REACH 950 MB WITH 8-10C AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS WOULD POINT TO MAX TEMPS 55-60. GUIDANCE VALUES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER...SO WE BUMPED THEM UP TO THE 55-60 RANGE. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLOUDS INCREASE AND THICKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND SURFACE COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE UPPER VENTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW WELL OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK AS IT MOVES PAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE WITH SOME POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MOSTLY CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. WE WILL HOLD CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA AND LESSER POPS TO THE NORTH/WEST. CHANCE OF PRECIP DIMINISHES TUESDAY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL GENERATE A NORTHEAST WIND...MOST PROMINENT ALONG CAPE COD/ISLANDS AND THE SOUTH COAST. BASED ON 1000-MB WIND...ESTIMATE WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KNOTS DURING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER. MIXED LAYER TO 950 MB AND TEMPS OF 1C SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS 40-45. UPPER TROUGH THEN SWINGS THROUGH DURING WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND MAY BRING SCATTERED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODELS AGREE ON SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS BUT DISAGREE ON EXTENT. WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXCEPT FOR RI AND SE MASS WHICH HAVE CHANCE POPS. FRIDAY-SATURDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD TREND TOWARD DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BUT ONE MORE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NY INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY. UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS TROUGH MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MASS. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT...EXPECT A TREND TO MILDER TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. IF WE GET ENOUGH SUN ON SATURDAY THEN MAX TEMPS MAY BE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AND APPROACH 60. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH MON...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LOCAL IFR DUE TO PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH 12Z... OTHERWISE VFR. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVER OCEAN SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS 11Z-18Z WHICH COULD ALSO AFFECT BID/MVY/ACK AND CAPE COD...BUT THINKING IS THESE LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. S/SW FLOW TODAY WITH FEW 15-20KT GUSTS NEAR COAST. VFR MON WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW ACROSS INTERIOR DURING MORNING...AND DURING AFTERNOON ACROSS RI/E MA. KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST. CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...THEN EXPECT SW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20 KT SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT AS GRADIENT INCREASES. NONETHELESS...NICE BOATING WEATHER FOR THE FIRST WEEKEND IN DECEMBER WITH EXCELLENT VISIBILITY. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT AND 25-30 KNOTS TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 FEET MONDAY NIGHT AND 5-7 FEET ON THE EXPOSED WATERS TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE MORE SLOWLY WITH 5-7 FEET LINGERING ON THE OUTER WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED DUE TO THOSE SEAS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/KJC NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...KJC LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...JWD MARINE...WTB/KJC  FXUS61 KBOX 161444 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1044 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A RISK FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OR PASS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1025 AM UPDATE... CLOUDS BREAKING IN THE CT VALLEY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MA/NE CT/NW RI BY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. FIRST...06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT ABOUT 2000-2500 FT REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO SEE CLOUD THICKNESS ON GOES-E EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT UP TO 2500 FT THIS MORNING. ALSO...NOTING THE GOES-E IFR PROB PERCENTAGES BEGINNING TO LOWER BUT REMAINING AOA 90 PCT ON THE MVFR PROBS. N-NE WINDS IN PLACE...STILL GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 14Z...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE SUNRISE. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT BUT RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED TO BRING CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO THIS AFTERNOON TRENDS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT THINKING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED NEAR 925 TO 950 MB ACROSS EASTERN MA BELOW THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THE RESULT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES EXPECTED LATER THIS AM AND AFTERNOON... SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOTS CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH. IN FACT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... AFTER A VERY SHORT DRY/SUNNY PERIOD TODAY...OCCLUDING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH NOSE OF 30-40 KT LLJ IN TOW LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE N OF THE REGION...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE OF PWATS ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AS WELL AS A SLOW DECREASE IN STABILITY AS H5 TEMPS COOL LATE...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHRA ESPECIALLY N OF THE PIKE...BUT LIKELY AS FAR S AS THE S COAST ALSO. AT THIS POINT...THE STABILITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THAT WE WILL LEAVE TS OUT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PEAK PRECIP PERIOD. AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W-E AFTER 04Z...FOG IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW UNTIL MIXING PEAKS TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER/HIGH DWPTS. THU... INTERESTING MARCH DAY WITH SEVERAL FACTORS...SOME OF WHICH COUNTER EACH OTHER. W WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPS. THIS MIX LAYER DEVELOPS IN PART TO VERY STRONG AND RAPID COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID LVLS THAT WILL CULMINATE IN H5 TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL YIELD MID LVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8-9C/KM. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER LOOKS TO REACH NEAR H7...WHICH GENERATES DEEP INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT YIELDS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500J/KG AS K VALUES APPROACH 20-25 LATE IN THE DAY...SLOWED BY THE LOW LVL MIXING. CONSIDERING ALL THIS...ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A RISK FOR HAIL /THE VERY COLD AIR/ AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN DAMAGING WINDS /INVERTED-V SOUNDING WITH NEARLY 500J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE/. THE TWO ISSUES ARE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK LIFT WHICH DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH SUGGESTING ISOLATED-SCT SHRA/T-STORM RISK. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR EVEN IF NO THUNDER IS OBSERVED. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OVERACHIEVE THANKS TO THE INCREASED MIXING. WITH BREAKS OF SUN...SUSPECT MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THU EVE * COLD FRONT FRI BRINGS SCT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN GRAUPEL * TURNING MUCH COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS * DRY AND CHILLY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY * COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON BUT MAY ALSO PASS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -30C...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 60 ARE QUITE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTORS ARE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE DIMINISHING AS ACTIVITY TRIES TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WITH 50 KNOT OF WIND SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE EVENING WEARS ON GIVEN LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. FRIDAY... ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW FAVORABLE INDICES FOR A WINDEX EVENT IF SURFACE TEMPS WERE COLDER. NICE CONVERGENCE ON THE COLD FRONT...DEEP 0 TO 2 KM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER MILD SO EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT PTYPE MAY BECOME MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. EVEN A LOW RISK OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 40S...TO LOWER 50S SHOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT... MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 20S REGION WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS! QUITE A CHANGE FROM OUR RECENT WEATHER! WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE OUTER-CAPE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT WIND TRAJECTORIES THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. SATURDAY... A RATHER COLD AND BLUSTERY START TO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...850 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND -12C. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER EAST AND...TAKEN VERBATIM...WOULD SUPPORT A GLANCING BLOW OR A MISS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME RANGE THAT IS NOT A BIG FACTOR. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL BEYOND 120 HOURS ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST A 100 MILE SHIFT TO THE WEST WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ULTIMATELY...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW/WHEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTERACTS WITH ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF DIGGING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS STORM TRACKS. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE...JUST A SUBTLE CHANGE IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW EVENT VERSE A GLANCING BLOW OR EVEN A COMPLETE MISS OUT TO SEA. AT THIS POINT...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE. WE CAN SAY THAT A WARM/INLAND TRACK OF THIS STORM IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN A 50/50 LOW AND UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING ACROSS GREENLAND...THERE IS ONLY SO FAR WEST THIS STORM CAN GET. TUESDAY... WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THIS STORM...DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE 40S. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS CLOUDS THIN OUT. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI/NE CT...EXPECT MVFR CIGS THAT MAY LIFT TO LOW END VFR MAINLY NEAR OR W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. E COASTAL MA...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS THAT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 19Z-22Z. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR...BUT MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS SE MA. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN TIER. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES. LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING...SOME -SHRA OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF WIND GUSTS 40-50 KT AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN A BIT OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IF A STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND THROUGH AROUND 17Z THEN DIMINISHING. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO FULLY SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG GUSTY W WINDS NEAR SHORE ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PRIMARILY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT SEAS/WINDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF GALES DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT TRACKS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231- 232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254- 255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/EVT MARINE...FRANK/DOODY/EVT  FXUS61 KBOX 161814 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 214 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. DAYTIME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OR PASS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 150 PM UPDATE... LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS E MA INTO E RI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...SKIES CLEARED BY LATE THIS MORNING. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AS SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOTED A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SE MA IN WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS DISSIPATED ON THE 17Z KBOX 88D RADAR. DID NOT RECEIVE REPORTS OF SHOWERS FROM GROUND STATIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AWAY FROM THE LOW CLOUDS AT 17Z...BUT REMAIN IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE EAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW. NOTING GUSTS UP TO 23 KT AT KACK. HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS BREAKING IN THE CT VALLEY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MA/NE CT/NW RI BY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. FIRST...06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT ABOUT 2000-2500 FT REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO SEE CLOUD THICKNESS ON GOES-E EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT UP TO 2500 FT THIS MORNING. ALSO...NOTING THE GOES-E IFR PROB PERCENTAGES BEGINNING TO LOWER BUT REMAINING AOA 90 PCT ON THE MVFR PROBS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT BUT RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... AFTER A VERY SHORT DRY/SUNNY PERIOD TODAY...OCCLUDING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH NOSE OF 30-40 KT LLJ IN TOW LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE N OF THE REGION...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE OF PWATS ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AS WELL AS A SLOW DECREASE IN STABILITY AS H5 TEMPS COOL LATE...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHRA ESPECIALLY N OF THE PIKE...BUT LIKELY AS FAR S AS THE S COAST ALSO. AT THIS POINT...THE STABILITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THAT WE WILL LEAVE TS OUT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PEAK PRECIP PERIOD. AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W-E AFTER 04Z...FOG IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW UNTIL MIXING PEAKS TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER/HIGH DWPTS. THU... INTERESTING MARCH DAY WITH SEVERAL FACTORS...SOME OF WHICH COUNTER EACH OTHER. W WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPS. THIS MIX LAYER DEVELOPS IN PART TO VERY STRONG AND RAPID COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID LVLS THAT WILL CULMINATE IN H5 TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL YIELD MID LVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8-9C/KM. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER LOOKS TO REACH NEAR H7...WHICH GENERATES DEEP INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT YIELDS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500J/KG AS K VALUES APPROACH 20-25 LATE IN THE DAY...SLOWED BY THE LOW LVL MIXING. CONSIDERING ALL THIS...ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A RISK FOR HAIL /THE VERY COLD AIR/ AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN DAMAGING WINDS /INVERTED-V SOUNDING WITH NEARLY 500J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE/. THE TWO ISSUES ARE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK LIFT WHICH DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH SUGGESTING ISOLATED-SCT SHRA/T-STORM RISK. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR EVEN IF NO THUNDER IS OBSERVED. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OVERACHIEVE THANKS TO THE INCREASED MIXING. WITH BREAKS OF SUN...SUSPECT MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THU EVE * COLD FRONT FRI BRINGS SCT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN GRAUPEL * TURNING MUCH COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS * DRY AND CHILLY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY * COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON BUT MAY ALSO PASS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -30C...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 60 ARE QUITE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTORS ARE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE DIMINISHING AS ACTIVITY TRIES TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WITH 50 KNOT OF WIND SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE EVENING WEARS ON GIVEN LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. FRIDAY... ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW FAVORABLE INDICES FOR A WINDEX EVENT IF SURFACE TEMPS WERE COLDER. NICE CONVERGENCE ON THE COLD FRONT...DEEP 0 TO 2 KM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER MILD SO EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT PTYPE MAY BECOME MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. EVEN A LOW RISK OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 40S...TO LOWER 50S SHOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT... MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 20S REGION WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS! QUITE A CHANGE FROM OUR RECENT WEATHER! WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE OUTER-CAPE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT WIND TRAJECTORIES THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. SATURDAY... A RATHER COLD AND BLUSTERY START TO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...850 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND -12C. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER EAST AND...TAKEN VERBATIM...WOULD SUPPORT A GLANCING BLOW OR A MISS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME RANGE THAT IS NOT A BIG FACTOR. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL BEYOND 120 HOURS ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST A 100 MILE SHIFT TO THE WEST WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ULTIMATELY...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW/WHEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTERACTS WITH ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF DIGGING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS STORM TRACKS. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE...JUST A SUBTLE CHANGE IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW EVENT VERSE A GLANCING BLOW OR EVEN A COMPLETE MISS OUT TO SEA. AT THIS POINT...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE. WE CAN SAY THAT A WARM/INLAND TRACK OF THIS STORM IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN A 50/50 LOW AND UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING ACROSS GREENLAND...THERE IS ONLY SO FAR WEST THIS STORM CAN GET. TUESDAY... WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THIS STORM...DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EASTERN MA...IFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS CAPE COD/KMVY AND KACK WITH PATCHY FOG INVOF KGHG...WHILE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AS FAR INLAND AS KFIT TO KBED TO KUUU. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WILL DIMINISH BY 20Z-21Z. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR PRIOR TO FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN TIER. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES. LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING...SOME -SHRA OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF WIND GUSTS 40-50 KT AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN A BIT OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IF A STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO FULLY SUBSIDE. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS ON MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG GUSTY W WINDS NEAR SHORE ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PRIMARILY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT SEAS/WINDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF GALES DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT TRACKS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/EVT MARINE...FRANK/DOODY/EVT  FXUS61 KBOX 230123 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 923 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER NEW YORK CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO OUR AREA THIS UPCOMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 925 PM UPDATE... LAST OF CONVECTION HOLDING ON FOR DEAR LIFE ACROSS NORTHERN CT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LEFT TO KEEP IT GOING BUT AIRMASS FARTHER TO N AND E IS LESS FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN IT INTO MA/RI. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS LIFTING NE FROM MID ATLANTIC...AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG COLD FRONT. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS FARTHER INTO INTERIOR...SO ADJUSTED POPS OVERNIGHT TO REFLECT THIS TREND. MOST OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS CT...RI AND S CENTRAL/SE MA. LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG S COAST TONIGHT. GOES-E EXPERIMENTAL IFR PROBABILITIES SHOW NORTHERN EDGE SKIRTING S COAST AND BUZZARDS BAY. THIS MAY MAKE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS BUT WITH MORE OF A SW FLOW IT SHOULD STAY S OF PROVIDENCE AND PLYMOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LEFTOVER SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER RI/SOUTHEAST MASS...SHOULD MOVE OFF WITH THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. MIXING IS FORECAST TO 900 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS AT THAT HEIGHT WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN. NOT CLEAR WHETHER IT WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SURFACE AIR TO DECOUPLE AND ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...WHICH WOULD BE QUITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY IF MINS REACHED THAT LOW. WE WILL ALLOW A LIGHT NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MOST PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE OF DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF DIPPING BELOW 30. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...SUCH COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERVIEW... LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL SHIFT E AS OVERALL NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. BROAD H5 VORTEX ELONGATES FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE INTO LABRADOR AND NEWFOUNDLAND BY SUNDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX KEEPING A FAST W-NW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND...AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WILL SEE MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND TRACK AS A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. DETAILS... SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS AND MID DECK CLOUDS. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF N NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS N MA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW DURING MONDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO TEND TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. STARTING TO SEE A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP AS THE FRONT CROSSES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY... COOLER AIR WORKS IN AS WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL FALL DOWN TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. HAVE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS TO START TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH HIGH PRES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THU INTO FRI. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 00Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA IN MA AND NORTHERN CT. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING...WITH IFR DEVELOPING DUE TO MARINE STRATUS. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WILL LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR IN SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING FOG. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS CT VALLEY AREA IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY IN THE WEST. ELSEWHERE... CIGS/VSBYS MVFR TO START...EXCEPT IFR CAPE/ISLANDS...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY. NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING SATURDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM N-S TUE NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE PERSISTENT FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS A LITTLE WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS ON THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THOSE WATERS. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT LATER AT NIGHT AND COME FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FEET SATURDAY. HEIGHTS OF 4-6 FEET POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N WINDS VEERING TO THE SE ON SUNDAY. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. MAY SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM N TO S ACROSS THE WATERS. S WINDS BECOME N DURING MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN THE N WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT DURING TUE. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND MAY REACH TO E OF CAPE COD DURING TUESDAY. SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDING SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SE MA/E RI SATURDAY MORNING WITH N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. THESE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING LOWERING DEWPOINTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FROM 25 TO 40 PERCENT NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT N WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH WILL BECOME SW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN IS MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 0.5 TO AROUND 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...WTB/NMB MARINE...WTB/NMB FIRE WEATHER...NMB/WTB  FXUS61 KBOX 071358 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 958 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across interior southern New England this afternoon and evening, some of which will produce torrential rainfall and may be severe. An active weather pattern will remain in place Friday into the weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather returns early next week with seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 am Update... * Thunderstorms expected 1 pm to 8 pm, especially north & west of I-95 in CT, RI, and MA. * Torrential rainfall, gusty winds, small hail are main threats. * Localized flooding possible. Backdoor front remains draped across eastern MA with low clouds/fog behind it. Front should not make much further progress to SW this afternoon and should even begin to retreat NE again. High-res models keep much of NE MA in cooler airmass and it will be a close call whether or not it gets back through Boston as flow turns more to E. Should see low clouds/fog erode slowly as GOES experimental IFR probs indicate layer is fairly shallow, but with persistent onshore flow it will not erode all at once. Fog has also been an issue near South Coast due to southerly flow bringing 70+ dewpoints into region. This should likewise burn off over land through early afternoon as layer is fairly shallow as well. Attention then turns to thunderstorm potential for this afternoon. Some disagreement as to where storms are favored, with high-res models focusing activity near South Coast sea breeze front across CT, RI and adjacent SE MA while overall parameters look more favorable across interior (western/central MA and northern CT). So far SPC mesoanalysis shows best instability working its way north from NJ and NYC toward South Coast, so high-res models have have the right idea. However we may see storms initiate on other boundaries including terrain and backdoor cold front, so no one area seems to be out of the woods with perhaps exception of NE MA which should remain in cooler onshore flow. Based upon that uncertainty, we are not planning to issue any Flood Watches with this update. Threat still appears very localized but we would not be surprised to see some 3"+ rainfall totals in spots. Forecast highs in 70s/80s look good with lower 90s in Hartford/ Springfield areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Tonight... With lack of diurnal heating, storms dissipate. Storm activity though may maintain SE and offshore associated with weak mid level troughing and accompanying vortex energy providing enough forcing on SW convergent low-level theta-e moist flow. Otherwise quiet with light winds. A mild and muggy night as dewpoints remain well into the 60s. There is the potential for radiational cooling as clouds clear W to E and subsequently with antecedent rains and sultry air there is the threat for dense fog. Greatest threat across the N/W interior. May also see impacts across the S/E coast associated with a marine stratus layer. Friday... Much of the day is dry beneath weak mid level ridging and anti- cyclonic flow. Can not rule out some shower activity during the later half of the day as sea-breezes act upon the destabilizing boundary layer across the interior, mainly interior W out in the CT River Valley. Lack of mid to upper level forcing, majority of any activity looks to be low-topped. A challenge in forecasting temperatures dependent on the morphology of sea-breeze / back-door cold front into the interior and the expectation of marine layer air / low clouds beneath the weak dry inversion aloft. Greatest focus N/E where it is expected to be cooler, warmer S/W. Looking at a range from the upper 70s to the low 90s NE to SW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights... * Unsettled weather with showers/t-storms possible at times Fri night through the weekend * Cooler this weekend with below normal temps * Dry weather with a warming trend next week Overview... Models are in good agreement on the large scale pattern during the extended period but there are some minor timing differences. Robust mid level trof will be moving into New England this weekend bringing cooler and unsettled conditions. The trof gradually exits next week with upper ridging building in from the west by mid week. This will result in a period of dry weather with a warming trend next week with models signaling a return to summer heat towards the latter half of next week. Details... Friday night and Saturday... Mainly dry conditions to start the evening but models bring a shortwave into SNE later Fri night into Sat morning well ahead of the main mid level low. Deep moisture plume assocd with this shortwave along with elevated instability and high pwat airmass suggests showers and sct t-storms will affect the region with locally heavy rainfall. Then increasing mid level forcing later Sat into Sat night as the main trof approaches from the west will bring a renewed threat of showers and isold t-storms. Exact timing is uncertain but latest guidance suggest the heavy rain threat Fri night will be mainly across western New England then shifting east during Sat. Low confidence temp forecast Sat as there remains uncertainty with the location of the frontal boundary near SNE. GFS lifts the front to the north with temps warming into the 80s while ECMWF has the front south of the region with temps in the 60s. NAM/GGEM are a compromise with the front somewhere across SNE. Temps Sat will be highly dependent on the location of the front. We used a blend of the available guidance but big bust potential on temps. Sunday... Unsettled weather to continue as mid level trof axis moves across the region with deep moisture in place. Expect lots of clouds and sct showers. Instability is marginal so we did not include thunder but can't rule out an isold t-storm. More uncertainty on temp forecast as GFS considerably warmer than ECMWF, especially across northern zones. We used a blend with highs mostly in the 70s. Monday through Wednesday... Monday will be a transition day as one last shortwave moving through the flow may result in a brief shower as the trof axis will be just east of New Eng. Otherwise, looks mainly dry through the period with a warming trend as the trof gradually exits with rising heights as upper ridge builds in from the west by mid week. Temps near or slightly below normal Monday warming above normal by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/... 14z update... Today...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR near both coasts slowly improves to VFR through early afternoon. SCT SHRA/TSRA developing across interior S New England midday continuing into early eve. Local +SHRA with VSBYS briefly lowering to MVFR-IFR and wind gusts to 35kt possible. SHRA/TSRA by midday continuing into afternoon. Likely TEMPO MVFR-IFR conditions with +RA. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Tempo MVFR-IFR with leftover SCT SHRA/TSRA in the early evening hours. Patchy dense IFR-LIFR fog develops over the W and Central interior overnight as low clouds slip in from the N/E as winds back NE. Could be some issues for the S/E coastal terminals but low confidence at this time. Friday...Moderate confidence. IFR-LIFR fog dissipates during the morning as stratus continues to be an issue N/E. This may lift through the day. Winds veer E. Late in the day there is a chance for SHRA/TSRA across the W and Central interior. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Main time frame for TS 19z-22z but most of storms should remain to W. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Main time frame for TS 17z-20z. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday night into Saturday...Moderate confidence. Potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in developing stratus. Showers and sct t-storms move into the region from the west later Fri night into Sat. Sunday...Moderate confidence. Mix of VFR/MVFR cigs with sct showers. Monday...High confidence. Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence. Fair boating weather overall. There will be instances of marine stratus / fog impacting the waters as S winds steer more N/E through the period. Seas remaining at or below 5 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the interior today could potentially move E into the waters this evening, though greater confidence over the S/SE waters, especially over the outer waters, for overnight into early Friday shower and thunderstorm activity. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...Moderate confidence. Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds. Low confidence on wind direction Sat due to uncertainty with the locations of the frontal boundary. Could have E/NE winds over E MA waters and southerly winds over the south coastal waters. Mainly NW winds Sun/Mon but lower confidence Sun as low pres will be in the vicinity. Seas may approach 5 ft over outer waters Sun into Mon. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ004>016- 026. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...Sipprell/Thompson LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...JWD MARINE...KJC/Sipprell  FXUS61 KBOX 180122 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 922 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak stationary front draped over southern New England is expected to wash out overnight. A cold front will approach from the west during Monday. During Monday afternoon into Monday evening, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible well ahead of this cold front. A cold front sweeps through New England Monday night with scattered showers/thunderstorms. High pressure then builds fair weather over the region for Tuesday through Friday. Another cold front moves through on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 920 PM update... Earlier storms have dissipated. Areas of low clouds/fog will be main concern overnight, especially near Cape Cod and Islands where coverage will be most widespread. Along E MA coast, experimental GOES IFR probability imagery shows most of the low cloud deck has shifted a bit farther offshore. It may try to head back toward coast, including Boston, for a time late this evening as winds turn more SE but it should head back out to sea overnight once winds become SW. Elsewhere, fog/low clouds will be more patchy in nature. Lows in 60s to around 70 look good. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... With the exception of some early morning fog/stratus that may linger into the morning along the Cape and Islands, the area is expected to start the day mostly sunny. Temperatures will warm quickly and this will lead to substantial diurnal instability. Surface-based Cape climbs to 1500-2000+ J/kg for the afternoon. A cold front will be moving through the eastern Great Lakes region and approaching our area during the day, but ahead of that is expected to be a pre-frontal trough. This pre-frontal trough is forecast to move through southern New England during Monday afternoon and evening, providing a trigger for showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms during Monday afternoon and early evening. The main threats from a severe weather standpoint would be gusty to damaging winds and hail, looking at BUFKIT hodographs can not completely rule out an isolated tornado. In addition, models show precipitable water values peaking out around 2 inches. So any thunderstorm could produce locally heavy downpours, which could cause localized urban or poor drainage flooding. Have included enhanced wording in the forecast tomorrow, the threat for severe weather/locally heavy rain could last through early evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Big Picture... Upper jet flow shifts north into Canada during the week. Subtropical high over the Southern USA expands across much of the Northern USA with ridge axis over the Plains. Upper trough remains over the Pacific Northwest and another trough digs over eastern New England and the Maritimes. This brings a northwest flow over much of New England, although with higher/warmer than normal contour heights aloft. The GFS and ECMWF mass fields are similar. Their main difference is how they handle polar shortwaves moving across Canada late in the forecast period. This can lead to differences in depicting the surface weather systems over Canada and the cold fronts that they sweep across the Northern USA. Thermal fields are also similar. Moisture fields are a little different over the weekend but within reason. No clear favorite, so will go with a general blend. Details... Monday night-Tuesday... Cold front moves through the region Monday night. Diminishing CAPE during the night but Total-Totals of 48-51 and LI sub-zero should support showers/tstms until frontal passage. Precipitable water values 1.5 to 2 inches in the evening diminish overnight but should support a period of locally heavy downpours. Once the cold front moves through, high pressure builds in at the surface Tuesday bringing somewhat lower humidity. Mixed layer will reach to near 800 mb, with temps there supporting max sfc temps in the Low to Mid 80s. But lingering upper trough and lingering moisture below 850 mb should generate some diurnal clouds especially in Nrn Mass. Wednesday-Thursday... High pressure moves overhead Wednesday and shifts offshore Thursday. Fair skies and light wind, with sea breeze potential at the coasts Wednesday and developing Southwest flow Thursday. Temps aloft 11-13C Wednesday and 14-16C Thursday, supporting Lower 80s Wednesday and Mid to Upper 80s Thursday. Friday-Saturday... Northwest flow aloft with at least one approaching shortwave and associated surface cold front, possibly two. Precipitable water values build Friday night and peak near 2 inches overnight and early Saturday. CAPE builds late Friday mostly to our North and West but may be close enough to generate scattered showers/storms in parts of Northern MA late Friday and early Friday night. CAPE rebuilds Saturday ahead of surface cold front depicted by the models, but GFS shows only a weak shortwave that is mostly along or north of the Canadian border while the ECMWF shows nothing. We will continue to show a chance of showers/storms with the cold front. Temps aloft 18c on the ECMWF and 20C on the GFS Friday, 20-22C Saturday. This suggests sfc high temps in the 90s, with mid 90s on Saturday. Sunday... Low confidence Sunday forecast. Cold front moves off to the south and east with convective parameters showing stable air. Temps aloft remain at 19-20C suggesting another day of max temps in the 90s. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Overnight...Moderate confidence. Fog/low clouds have shifted off E MA coast per satellite imagery, but may try to head back toward coast for a time late this evening as winds turn more SE. Once winds turn SW overnight, the fog/low clouds should push offshore. This may be optimistic, as there is a low potential for the fog/low clouds lingering into the morning rush hour. Fog/low clouds will linger all night over Cape Cod and Islands. IFR/LIFR in this area overnight. Remaining areas should be VFR overnight. Monday... VFR ceilings aoa 040 expected Mon. Could see another round of scattered showers/storms later in day, especially from Berkshires to Connecticut River Valley. KBOS TAF...Low confidence. LIFR ceilings should move back onshore 03z-08z but not confident in how long they last. Trend should be for improvement to VFR overnight as winds turn SW. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/... Monday night... Moderate confidence. Areas of MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy downpours and strong wind gusts. Cold front moves through during the night with winds shifting from out of the West. Tuesday through Thursday... Moderate-High Confidence. VFR. Areas of IFR in morning fog, especially on Tuesday. Northwest winds Tuesday become variable-onshore Wednesday, then Southwest Thursday. Friday... VFR. Areas of IFR in morning fog. Areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered late afternoon showers/thunderstorms, with main focus in northern Mass. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/...Moderate confidence. Light winds and flat seas overnight. Areas of dense fog, mainly on south coastal waters, will bring near zero visibility in spots through sunrise. Issued Small Craft Advisory for nearshore waters Mon, including Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay. Forecast soundings show deep mixing over land and within a mile or so of shore, with 25kt gusts likely during afternoon. Gusts subside toward sunset. Could see few showers or thunderstorms later in day, but greater chances are across interior southern New England. Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/... Moderate-High confidence. Monday night... Southwest winds gusting 20-23 knots Monday night, turning west overnight as a cold front moves through. Forecast guidance brought seas of 5-6 feet, but based on a sustained 20-25 knot wind. This would be a high estimate, so we lowered seas to around 4 feet. Tuesday through Friday... High pressure moves overhead Wednesday and offshore Thursday. Winds shift from Northwest Tuesday to variable-onshore Wednesday and Southwest Thursday-Friday. Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the period. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ230>237-250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/NMB/JWD MARINE...WTB/NMB  FXUS61 KBOX 132056 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 356 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure along the northern New England coast moves rapidly northeast as high pressure builds in tonight. High pressure builds over the northeast Wednesday and remains into Thursday. The high drifts north during Thursday as the next low pressure system approaches from the south late in the day. A wintry mix will be possible with this storm Thursday night into Friday. A weak system may bring scattered snow showers Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Rain has ended across most of the area, with some light rain lingering across Cape Cod. This rain will be ending quickly as low pressure along the northern New England coast continues to rapidly move to the northeast. Split flow was developing as the southern stream upper low was closing off and becoming cut off from the flow. The northern stream upper trough will slowly light into eastern Canada through tonight. Meanwhile surface high pressure was building into the area from the west. Clearing will be slow with cyclonic mid and upper level flow through tonight. Mixing in the cold advection will allow for gusty winds through tonight, possibly up to 30 kt at times. No additional flooding occurred this afternoon. Flood warnings continue for the Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County, and the Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties. Updated the flood warning with an FLS for the new stages. No other streams are expected to flood at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Some of the coldest air of the season will be moving into the region Wednesday and Wednesday night as arctic air flows into the region behind the upper trough. With the upper trough axis to the northeast and with increasing subsidence the area is expected to remain nearly cloud free Wednesday and Wednesday night. Cold advection will continue Wednesday and will be weakening after 15Z. Thus mixing will become more limited. Winds and gusts are expected to remain below advisory levels. Even if mixed to the top of the layer winds will be briefly near advisory levels Wednesday morning. With the center of the high nearly overhead winds will decouple and become light, allowing for good radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights... * Low pressure late Thu into Fri with rain/snow/sleet possible * Another weak system may bring snow showers Sun night/Mon Details... Thursday and Friday... As the high crosses northern New England Thursday, winds shift around to E-SE during the day. Clouds will push in from S-N during the day, and will steadily lower and thicken especially across S coastal areas. With the souther periphery of the high in place, will be tough to get the leading edge of moisture working into the region until Thu night. Might see some some light rain push into the S coast toward sunset. Cold air remains in place, with temps only reaching the 30s, except the lower 40s along the S coast. The H5 cutoff low slowly moves E-NE across the mid Atlc states Thu night but, as the high to the NE slowly moving to the Maritimes, increasing easterly flow will help feed in moisture which should allow precip to spread across the region. Big question will be PTYPEs as the onset of the precip. Have a mixed bag of precip moving in even along the coast to start, but should change over to rain with a slow temp rise with the onshore flow off the milder waters. Timing of the changeover, and exact amounts of snow/sleet are still up in the air. Temps inland may fall back to the 20s Thu evening, especially across the higher inland terrain, but should start to rise after midnight as E winds increase. Temps should rise above freezing across most areas during Fri, but again questions whether the cold air will scour out of the interior valleys and the higher terrain. Something to monitor closely. Strong low level jet moving toward S coastal areas, Cape Cod and the islands after midnight Thu night through Fri. Could see E-SE wind gusts up to 35-40 kt, highest across the islands Friday morning, possibly to midday. May need wind headlines for a time there. Expect the surface low to cross close to or across Cape Cod or S coastal Mass around midday Friday, then should exit rather quickly across the Gulf of Maine. However, precip may linger through the day, though should start tapering off late Fri afternoon across western areas. Friday night through Monday... Any leftover precip across central and eastern areas should end Fri evening. Otherwise, a nearly zonal fast flow aloft will bring quickly improving conditions across the region. Lows Fri night will run close to seasonal normals, in the upper 20s and 30s, except 35-40 along the coast. Winds shift to W-NW with gusts up to 25-30 kt across Cape Cod and the islands early, but should diminish. Will see somewhat milder temps as compared to the previous few days on Saturday, but will still run around 5 degrees below normal. Another short wave approaches from the W, but should be mainly dry as it moves across the region late Sat or Sat night. However, this should bring another shot of colder air across the region by Sunday with highs only in the 30s well inland to 40-45 along the coastal plain. Another short wave may work E Sun night into Mon as a mid level trough starts to dig across the Great Lakes. With temps falling back to the 20s to around 30 Sunday night, may see snow showers move across with this weak, fast moving system. May see leftover snow showers early Mon, then conditions should improve, though it will remain cold. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday Night/... Through Today...Moderate confidence. Mainly IFR CIGS and MVFR-LIFR VSBYS across most areas. Surface low pressure passes across Cape Cod this afternoon, then moves into the Gulf of Maine this evening. Winds become northeasterly by mid to late afternoon as the low moves northeast of the terminals. Wind speeds along the coast will be sustained around 20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. Some higher gusts will be possible closer to Cape Cod/Vineyard where peak gusts could reach 40 kt. LLWS with winds 50-60 kt at 2Kft over SE Mass and Cape/Islands. Further inland, not expecting any wind gusts. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR with dry weather. Gusty northwest winds with speeds 20-25 kt. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Gusty northwest winds. Gusts 25 to 35 kt, with some occasional gusts to 40 kt possible. KBOS Terminal... Rain continues through about 19-20z, then comes to an end. improvement to VFR expected around 23z, however timing may be off by an hour or two. KBDL Terminal...Rain continues through about 19-20z, then comes to an end. improvement to VFR expected around 23z, however timing may be off by an hour or two. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. PL and/or RA likely, chance SN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. RA likely, FZRA likely. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Gale force gusts will continue across most of the forecast waters through Wednesday, especially the outer waters by Wednesday afternoon. So, extended the gale warning through 23Z Wednesday. A small craft continues for Naragansetts Bay. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain. Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ232>235-237-256. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 2 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ231-250-251-254- 255. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ236. && $$